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Navigating Market Turbulence · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hey there , traders and investors !
• 0:02
  Welcome back to Spy Trader , the podcast that helps you navigate the market's twists and turns .
• 0:08
  I'm your host , Barry Bullish , and it's 6 am on Thursday , September 25th , 2025 , Pacific time .
• 0:17
  Grab your coffee , because we've got a lot to unpack this morning after a bit of a bumpy ride this week !
• 0:23
  We're currently seeing U.S.
• 0:25
  stock futures largely flat , with Nasdaq 100 futures slightly down by 0.01% , while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are marginally up , 0.02% and 0.03% respectively .
• 0:45
  This comes after two consecutive days of declines for all three major indices on Monday and Tuesday , which saw the Dow , S&P 500 , and Nasdaq closing lower by 0.37% , 0.28% , and 0.33% respectively yesterday .
• 1:06
  This recent slowdown follows what's been described as a ' blistering run ' from late 2024 through much of September , where the S&P 500 hit its 28th record close of the year by September 23rd , largely fueled by AI optimism and the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of 2025 .
• 1:26
  That first rate cut came earlier this month , lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%4.25% The Fed's move was influenced by a softening labor market , and they're projecting two more cuts by the end of 2025 .
• 1:43
  However , inflation remains a persistent concern .
• 1:47
  The annual Consumer Price Index jumped to 2.9% through August , and the Fed's preferred core PCE inflation is still elevated at 3.1% , above their 2% target .
• 1:59
  Fed Chair Powell even noted that rising goods prices are largely a reflection of higher tariffs .
• 2:06
  On the employment front , the U.S.
• 2:08
  labor market is definitely showing signs of weakening .
• 2:12
  The unemployment rate was 4.3% in August and is projected to reach 4.5% by yearend .
• 2:20
  Job creation has slowed significantly , with only 22,000 nonfarm payrolls added in August , a big drop from 79,000 in July .
• 2:31
  Plus , there was a huge downward revision of 911,000 fewer jobs added than initially estimated for the year to March 2025 , which is raising some eyebrows .
• 2:43
  The U.S.
• 2:43
  economy did show resilience with a 3.8% annualized growth rate in Q2 , but S&P Global Ratings forecasts a fullyear 2025 GDP growth of 1.9% , slowing to 1.8% in 2026 .
• 3:00
  This means a balancing act for the Fed : easing to support jobs , but carefully watching inflation .
• 3:07
  Trumpera tariffs are also still impacting businesses , leading to increased input costs .
• 3:12
  Now , let's look at some sectors and movers .
• 3:15
  The Technology sector has been the star of 2025 , thanks to AI optimism .
• 3:21
  But we've seen some valuation concerns recently , leading to selloffs in names like Nvidia , Oracle , and Micron .
• 3:29
  The S&P 500 Technology Sector was down 0.7% yesterday .
• 3:35
  Countering that , Intel shares surged on reports of a potential investment from Apple , and Alibaba also saw an 8% increase after boosting its AI infrastructure budget .
• 3:46
  On the flip side , the Energy sector showed strength yesterday , rising 1.3% , with Xcel Energy , EQT , and Phillips 66 among the top performers .
• 3:59
  The Healthcare sector , however , has had a challenging year , down 5% in 2025 due to regulatory pressures and economic headwinds .
• 4:08
  But there are glimmers of hope as companies like Centene are gaining traction after providing valuebased care incentives , adapting with telehealth and AI for efficiencies .
• 4:19
  The Materials sector was the worst performer yesterday , down 1.6% .
• 4:26
  On the earnings front , Costco , Accenture , and CarMax are slated to release earnings today , and CarMax has already reported disappointing quarterly results .
• 4:36
  THOR Industries surged after beating estimates , while Worthington Enterprises plunged after missing .
• 4:42
  So , with this mixed bag of news , what's a savvy investor to do ?
• 4:47
  My take is that we need a balanced and selective approach .
• 4:51
  For broad market exposure , keep holding those core ETFs like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , ticker SPY , or the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , VTI , for diversified coverage .
• 5:06
  In the Technology sector , while AI remains a longterm driver , be selective .
• 5:12
  The Invesco QQQ Trust , QQQ , is great for broad tech exposure .
• 5:18
  For individual opportunities , Intel looks interesting given the recent Apple investment news , indicating strategic relevance .
• 5:26
  And for longterm AI conviction , consider accumulating Nvidia on any significant pullbacks .
• 5:33
  Given the recent outperformance , the Energy sector could offer cyclical opportunities .
• 5:38
  The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , ticker XLE , provides diversified exposure .
• 5:46
  For the Healthcare sector , despite its current slump , it offers longterm value due to defensive characteristics and innovation .
• 5:53
  The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLV , is a good choice , and keep an eye on Centene for its adaptive strategies .
• 6:02
  Finally , with the Fed having initiated rate cuts , fixed income can offer stability .
• 6:07
  The iShares Core U.S.
• 6:08
  Aggregate Bond ETF , AGG , or the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , BND , are solid core holdings .
• 6:18
  For those betting on lower longterm yields , the iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF , TLT , could be considered , though remember the 10year Treasury yield recently ticked up .
• 6:29
  Overall , staying agile and closely watching incoming economic data , especially inflation and employment , will be key to navigating the market's path forward .
• 6:39
  That's all for today , traders .
• 6:41
  I'm Barry Bullish , and you've been listening to Spy Trader .
• 6:44
  Happy trading !