Latest / The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy
Why the Ten-Year Yield Won't Break Five Despite Sticky Inflation
The ten-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.50 percent, but core inflation is still running hot and consumer sentiment just hit a fresh record low. So why isn't the bond market pushing yields higher? Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers: the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.40 percent, the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.64, and the surprising calm in long-term yields. They look at what the bond market is pricing in — a soft landing, maybe a cut late this year — and whether that optimism is justified. Lucas points to the wedge between short-term and long-term yields as a signal that…
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