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Selects: What's the deal with swing states? · Stuff You Should Know

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hi, everybody. It's Chuck, and I'm rolling through the year
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: of COVID. This is October 6, 2020, and it's got
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: to be election season because we're talking about swing states.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: And it's October before the election in November. What's the
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: deal with swing states is the title of this episode.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: And I know we did a few episodes that were
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: slightly political leading up to the election. And this is
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: one of them, and it was a good one. Swing
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: states are weird to me, but I think we get
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: to the bottom of it. Check it out right now.
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  Speaker 2: Welcome to Stuff You Should Know, a production of iHeartRadio. Hey,
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: and welcome to the podcast. I'm Josh Clark, and there's
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Charles W. Chuck Bryan over there, and Jerry's over there somewhere,
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: I think in our office.
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: And this is Stuff You Should Know, the swinging, super.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Hip, Cat edition.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Swing states.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: They're the swinging estates of all.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: They like to sleep with each other.
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: Based on keys they took out of a fish ball.
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  Speaker 1: I should say up front, thank you to HowStuffWorks.com for
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: this article along with Politico, NPR, and I think 538blog
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I got some stuff from.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: You sound like you're giving an acceptance speech.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, for politics. For best election podcast episode.
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: That's right. We are not going to win.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is on swing states, which are all
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: the rage battleground states these days.
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  Speaker 2: Everybody loves them.
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  Speaker 1: And have been for a while, but some of this
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: stuff I thought was even enlightened me, and I thought
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I kind of knew most of this stuff.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: It's one of those things that I found interesting.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: That you can make a lot more difficult than it
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: actually is, at least just the general concept of swing states.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: But there's a lot of detail and info and history
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  Speaker 2: to it that makes the whole thing really interesting. So
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  Speaker 2: to keep from making the whole thing more difficult than
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  Speaker 2: it is, let's just define swing states at the outset.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, go ahead.
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  Speaker 2: Swing states are states during presidential elections in the United
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  Speaker 2: States here.
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  Speaker 3: That are– So closely.
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  Speaker 2: Divided politically that they could go either way. They could
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  Speaker 2: vote one way or the other. And based on a
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: lot of, you know, governmental ins and outs that will
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: go over, depending on which way they flip, they could
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: make or break a presidential campaign and elect the president
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: or deny somebody else the presidency.
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: At the same time, even, they can do both.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: That's right, and I'm glad you said that because more
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: than anything else in this episode, we want to drive–
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: or I want to drive home at least. I'm sure
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: you're on board.
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  Speaker 2: Okay.
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  Speaker 1: A swing state is not just a state that is
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: very closely divided politically among its constituents, and it just
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  Speaker 1: could go one way or the other. It is a
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  Speaker 1: state where there are people who– there are enough people
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  Speaker 1: in that state who can be persuaded to change who
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: they vote for that it can make a state go
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  Speaker 1: one way or the other. We're talking down to the
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  Speaker 1: thousands or even hundreds of votes.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 1: And that is why it is so, so, so, so
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: important that everybody votes, everybody votes, but especially if you
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: live in one of these swing states, because there are,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, there are people that still haven't
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: made up their mind in this country.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Which is really surprising in this particular election because things
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: have gotten super partisan and polarized in America. And they
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: had been going that way for many, many years now. But,
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, it is, I don't want to say it's
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: reached its apex. I hope it's reached its apex. I'm
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: sure it could get way worse. But things are real
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: polarized here. So it is very surprising that there's undecided voters.
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  Speaker 2: And I remember from our election polling episode, we were
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: saying one of the reasons that the state polling was
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: so far off is because there were so many undecided
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: voters at the end of 2016. That in and of
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: itself is pretty surprising because the candidates were so different.
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  Speaker 2: Things were so polarized then. It's even more surprising now
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: that there's any undecided voters.
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  Speaker 1: But they're out there. There's not a ton of them,
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  Speaker 1: but there's enough of them to swing an election and
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  Speaker 1: swing a state. Brookings Institution says 75% or more of
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: a presidential candidate's spending occurs in these swing states. And,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: you know, they're spending on ads. A lot of it
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  Speaker 1: is ad buys and social media ad buys, you know, robocalling,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: stuff like that.
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  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 1: But we should go over just, you know, I know
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: we did one on the Electoral College, but just for
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: our friends across the many ponds, we should give kind
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: of a quick overview of the very odd way that
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: we do things here.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, because everybody thinks in the United States that everybody
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: goes to the polls and during a national election, like
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: the presidential election, and elects the president. One person has
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: one vote. And that is definitely true. Each person does
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: have a vote. But the thing is, we have something
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: called the electoral college. And rather than directly elect the
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: president through a popular vote, we have an indirect way
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  Speaker 2: of electing the president, where all those people who go
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: to the polls are going to the polls to cast
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: a ballot, whether they know it or not, for the
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: electors for each party. So if you voted for Donald
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: Trump in 2020, say, what you're voting for is not
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: necessarily Donald Trump. You're voting for your state's Republican Party
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  Speaker 2: electors to go to the electoral college to cast their
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  Speaker 2: vote for Donald Trump, hopefully. That is the indirect way
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: of electing the president that we have. And under this situation,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: under this indirect electoral college setup that we have, You
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: can actually get elected president without winning the popular vote.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: And that's what happened in 2016. It's happened four times.
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: Yes. Twice very recently.
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  Speaker 2: It happened in the 2000 election where Al Gore, I think,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: won the popular vote by half a million votes. It
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: happened in 2016 where Hillary Clinton won the popular vote
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: by almost 3 million votes, like 2.9 million. Then it
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: happened a couple of times in, I think, the 19th century,
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: didn't it?
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, four times. Yeah, the other two were pretty far back.
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  Speaker 1: And all four times, Republican candidates lost the popular vote
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  Speaker 1: and ended up winning the election. And we'll get into
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: changes on the horizon as far as that goes. But
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: to kind of put a pin in the Electoral College,
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  Speaker 1: how it specifically works is each senator from each state,
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  Speaker 1: which is two senators because each state has two, get
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: a vote. And then... For each representative in the House,
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  Speaker 1: they get a vote. And everywhere except for Maine and
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Nebraska does what's called a winner-take-all. So if everyone in
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Georgia or, you know, if Georgia votes for, let's say,
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden, then everybody, all the electors would have to
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: vote for Joe Biden and cast that vote. In Maine
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: and Nebraska, what they do is I think they– and
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the goal here, by the way, is 270 electoral votes
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  Speaker 1: if you want to win. the presidency. But they do
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the district system, which is they award two of those
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: electoral votes to the statewide popular vote winner. And then
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: they go, I think, just district by district, don't they?
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they do. And so you can win, you know,
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  Speaker 2: if you win your statewide election in Maine or in Nebraska,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: you get two electoral votes automatically. And And then you
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: get one for each district that you won.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, which seems a little more fair.
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  Speaker 2: It does seem a little more fair, but I saw
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  Speaker 2: that on fairvote.org, they said if you do the math,
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  Speaker 2: it's actually way less fair on the national level. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: like maybe it works for Maine and Nebraska, but if
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  Speaker 2: all states did that, you would be able to eke
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  Speaker 2: out an even more imbalance between an electoral college win
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: and a loss of the popular vote. I saw somebody
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  Speaker 2: put out that, There is a path to 270 electoral votes.
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  Speaker 2: So you would win the presidency while also getting just
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: like 23 percent of the popular vote.
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  Speaker 1: Wow.
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  Speaker 2: You like to think that that could never happen. But
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  Speaker 2: apparently mathematically with this setup of the electoral college.
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  Speaker 3: It could happen.
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  Speaker 2: And the reason why is because one, the electoral college exists,
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: like you said, and then two, because of that winner
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  Speaker 2: take all system to where it doesn't matter whether you
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: win a state by one vote, you get all of
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: the electoral votes for that one state. And so in
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: creating swing states, the electoral college also creates what are
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: called safe states. And a safe state is where so
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  Speaker 2: many people so reliably vote for the party that that
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  Speaker 2: candidate is running for, that you can just count on
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  Speaker 2: that state giving, like winning their electoral votes. And you
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  Speaker 2: actually start with a base of that, that like, let's
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: say there's 170 solid electoral votes among like 20 states
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  Speaker 2: for Democrats, right? That is what you would rely on,
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  Speaker 2: not just on election day, but throughout the campaign. And
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  Speaker 2: so you're not spending much time or money in those
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  Speaker 2: states because those are safe states. You don't need to.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: It doesn't make any sense to do that. It makes
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: way more sense to spend all of your time and
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: money and attention on those swing states because those are
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  Speaker 2: the ones that aren't necessarily safe, but they're also not
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  Speaker 2: necessarily leaning the other way either. And you could conceivably
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  Speaker 2: put those swing states together to create that 270 or
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: more electoral votes, which should lead you to the presidency.
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  Speaker 1: Right. But, you know, it's gotten a little tricky here
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  Speaker 1: in recent years because... there are a few swing states
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  Speaker 1: that are kind of really solidly swingy. And then there
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  Speaker 1: have been a few that were more swingy or less swingy.
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  Speaker 1: And you have to make a decision as a candidate
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  Speaker 1: where you're going to spend your money and your time.
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  Speaker 1: And that's where polling comes in. A lot of people
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  Speaker 1: say that perhaps Hillary Clinton didn't spend enough time in
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: certain states that ended up flipping to Donald Trump. It's
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: all strategy. I think now we can maybe take a
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: little extended sidebar here about this whole blue state, red
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: state thing, which I thought was very interesting.
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: Because here in America, we have blue states and red states.
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  Speaker 1: The blue states are the Democratic-leaning states. The red states
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: are the Republican-leaning states. If you are sort of in
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: the mix, maybe a swing state, they might call you
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: purple in the news. If you hear that, that's what
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: that means. But it didn't always used to be these colors.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: And I got this from NPR. I found it interesting
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: to know that when the colors first started being assigned
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: in the mid-1970s, the Democrats were red and the Republicans
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: were blue.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so supposedly blue was traditionally the Republicans' color because
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: it was the color of the Union during the Civil War.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: And the Union was led by Abraham Lincoln, who was
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: a Republican. And then also apparently in Europe, the conservative
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: parties are typically associated with the color blue. So it
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: made more sense, at least at first, to have Republicans
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: be blue and Democrats be red. And supposedly that's where
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: it debuted back in 1976 here in the United States
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: on NBC because NBC was the first network to go
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: full color. And so in election night 1976, they said,
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: check out our amazing interactive map.
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: Uh-huh.
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  Speaker 2: Blue states are going to be ones that Republicans have won.
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  Speaker 2: Red states are going to be ones that Democrats have won.
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  Speaker 2: And did you see a picture of the map? Yeah.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: It looks like a giant stained glass window of the
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: United States. It does not look super flashy or anything now,
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: but at the time it was like knock your socks off,
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: technologically advanced, I guess.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, but here's the thing is those colors weren't locked in.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Like there was never any, you know, vote about those
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: colors or anything like that. They just sort of went
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: that way. As more and more TV networks went color,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: they went with other colors and it got a little
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: bit confusing. Depending on which network you were watching, you
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: might see different colors representing different parties. I think always
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: red and blue, but they were kind of flip-flopped. And
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: it wasn't until 2000 and the Washington Post, they credit
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Tim Russert. I think the late Tim Russert, he passed away,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: didn't he?
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, unfortunately, yeah.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they credit Tim Russert with kind of locking in
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: what we now know as blue states and red states,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: blue being for Democrat, red for Republican during the 2000
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: election between Gore and Bush. And these colors are important
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: because it's, and one of these writers in here, what's
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: his name? Bill Bishop. He's from Texas. He wrote a
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: book called The Big Sort. And he kind of makes
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: a really good point that it's become a shorthand of
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: not just a leaning of a state, but sort of
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: a lifestyle like you hear things like, you know, it's
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: a really blue neighborhood or a red community. And you
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: kind of know that's shorthand for a certain thing in
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: this country now.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And part of the problem with especially designating entire
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: states as like red or blue is that it makes
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: it seem like there's this homogenous group that the whole
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: state thinks that way.
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: And that's not necessarily true. I mean, there's plenty of.
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: States out there that are considered red states, but they
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: were won by One and a half percent or three percent.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: You know, it's like a very close call, but it
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: went Republican in the presidential election. So it's a red state.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: Or like you said, you can get it down to
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: community level, that kind of thing. And in doing so,
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: all you're doing is sowing this division of tribalism that
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: exists in the United States to where it's just so
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: easy to have this allegiance to blue or red. They
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: don't even make it donkey or elephant any longer. It's
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: blue and red. It's one of the most basic things
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: you can sort by, which is colors. And it's a
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: real problem in that it somehow– stokes that mentality, that in-group,
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: out-group mentality that is so problematic in the United States
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: right now and is drowning the country as we speak, basically.
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: I hate to say it, but it's absolutely true.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: It really is. And it's especially annoying if you have
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: political leanings like I do and live in a state
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: like Georgia that is for the past, you know, 20
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: plus years been solidly red. And then, you know, you
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: have I used to live in California. I have plenty
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: of friends in California who say things about places like
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Georgia with such disdain. It just bothers me so much
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: because it is– and the same can be said for
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: people on the other side of the political spectrum. It's
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: not exclusive to me being a liberal in Georgia. I'm
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: sure the same frustrations happen for Republicans in Massachusetts.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, yeah. I'm quite sure in the– I think it was–
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know what article that came from. They point
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: out that those people are some of the most diehard
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: partisans you'll find, you know, people who are minority in
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: their state. Sure. Because they feel like they're really carrying
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: the flag for their party or whatever. But yeah, it's
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: a real problem. It takes away all nuance. And it
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: also makes people think like, oh, you're from a red state.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: I can't work with you. My constituents won't like it
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: if I work with you, red state person, rather than
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: you're from Wisconsin and I'm from California. Let's figure out
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: how to make this highway bill make more sense kind
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: of thing, you know? Yeah.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Emily and I have a lot of conversations about the
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: lack of nuance in today's world. And it's, I think
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: that's one of the biggest problems we have going on
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: right now. Nuance has been lost and everything is carved
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: very much into red and blue and black and white.
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: And it's sad.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: And you know what is another thing that makes it
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: sad too is it's not just like That's just appealing
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: to the lowest common denominator. It activates in all people,
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: including brilliant, intelligent people who are otherwise normally level-headed.
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: They still have that part of their brain somewhere.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: They're like, I'm blue.
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: I'm red.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: I affiliate with that, and I hate the opposite. It
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: is that when you lose nuance, a lot of stuff
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: goes out the window with it.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: All right. Well, let's take a break. That was our
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: first soapbox of the day.
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: I thought we started out on a soapbox. I thought
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: this whole episode was going to be on.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: I think pretty even-handed soapboxes though, right? Sure. All right. Well,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: we'll come back and we'll build another soapbox in the
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: next couple of minutes. We'll be back right after this.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: Okay, so we're back on swing states, right? And I
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: think we should kind of talk about how they swing
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: or how they have swung or swanged.
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: Recently.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: Because with swing states, you kind of get this idea
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: that they're the same all the time. That's just not
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: the case, especially not lately. It seems like 1992 and
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: 2016 were both watershed years as far as just completely
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: recoloring the electoral map. And in 1992, Bill Clinton did it.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: And in 2016, Donald Trump did it. And it just
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: surprised everybody both times.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, 92. And if you're our age or younger, you
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: might not have been super hip to politics when you
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: were in high school, let's say. or early college. And
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: you may not know that there was what was called
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: a red wall. They didn't call it a red wall
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: back then, but it was a red wall where there was,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Republicans had a pretty firm lock on the electoral college
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: in that from 1966 to 1988, 21 states voted Republican
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: every single election. And that included, you might be surprised
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: to hear, California, Illinois and New Jersey and Virginia.
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: And here's the one that's going to really make your
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: heart stop.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: Vermont. Yeah.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Traditionally Republican voted 21 times in a row.
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: And that is 191 electoral votes. So they the Democrats
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: had a pretty big disadvantage going into 1992 historically, meaning
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: that they had to win more than three quarters of
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: the remaining electoral votes and Um, for these, you know,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: quote unquote competitive or up in the upper grab states.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: And that's not counting DC, which Democrats have always got
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: a lock on.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: For the last 14 elections, D.C. 's always gone Democrat.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: So the common wisdom was that when George H.W. Bush
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: went up for reelection, not only was he the incumbent president,
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: which means that you're supposed to be favored typically. But
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: He also had this red wall, which I don't know
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: what they called it, but this lock on the electoral college.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: And it was presumed that he was probably going to win.
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: And then Bill Clinton came along and he flipped nine
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: states from that red wall. Not just the swing states.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: He flipped nine of those red wall states, which was
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: 118 electoral votes. And ended up winning 370 to 168
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: in the electoral college votes.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: Somebody bring me a sledgehammer. That's basically what he did, though.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was pretty unprecedented and, like you said,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: just flipped the political thinking in this country on its ear.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: And flipped them so hard that California, Illinois, New Jersey,
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: and Vermont haven't voted Republican since the 1992 election.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, really reshaped the map.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he flipped those Republican lock states into Democrat lock states.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: That's right. And now they call it the blue wall,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: and they do call it the blue wall now because
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: blue is firmly ensconced as Democrat. And there are 18
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: states supposedly among this blue wall. along with D.C., that
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: have voted Democrat in each of the most recent six
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: elections from 92 to– well, previously from 92 to 2012.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: And that's when Trump came in and flipped it on
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: its ear once again. Yeah.
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: So he flipped some traditionally Democrat strongholds like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: And he did so by– first of all, energizing voters
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: that hadn't really been seen at the polls very much,
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: like voters without a higher education diploma, a lot of
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: rural workers, especially blue collar workers who had been lifelong Democrats,
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: went out and voted for Trump and ended up taking,
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: I think he flipped more than just those three. Oh, yeah.
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: He flipped five, Maine and Minnesota.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: No, no, no.
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry. He flipped those three and that's how he
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: won the electoral college. But he almost won Maine and
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: he almost won Minnesota. Right. And both of them were pretty,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: pretty strong Democratic states. Minnesota hadn't voted for a Republican
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: in like 50 years.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: And he came close to flipping that. And so here's
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: the thing.
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: We're talking about all these states being flipped because when
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: a state gets flipped in an election and especially if
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: it's kind of close or narrowly held rather than flipped,
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: that state is probably going to be a battleground or
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: swing state in the next election.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So if you're wondering, I mean, we'll list out
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: the swing states and sort of end that drama right here.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: But if you're wondering if you might be in a
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: swing state, it has to do with quite a few things. Obviously,
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: the voting history there being predictable. If you voted for
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: a long, long time for a specific party, You're probably
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: not a swing state. If your demographics in that state
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: are traditionally really support the same candidate, then you're probably
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: not going to be a swing state. The fact is
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: that most voters in most regions of the country or
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: most regions of the states in this country, they vote
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: based on they have really different opinions based on the
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: experience of just literally the physical place where they live. Right.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: So like the rural voters typically go GOP or Republican,
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: whereas people in metropolitan areas, major metropolitan areas, frequently go
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: toward the Democrats. And they have different experiences based on
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: their geography. And depending on how balanced that is, how
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: big the metropolis is, how big the rural area is
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: in a state compared to whatever metropolis or capital is there.
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: that can make that state a swing state. Like North
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: Carolina is a really good example of that. There's a
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: lot of highly educated tech types, scientific researchers who live
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: in the research triangle in North Carolina. There's also a
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: ton of rural voters, too, who are active in politics.
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: And those two balance each other out. And so North
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: Carolina is very frequently a swing state in presidential elections
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: because of that.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And, you know, I want to be clear. We're
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: not like disparaging... people who don't have college diplomas. There
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: are all kinds of ways to be smart. There are
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: a lot of people with college diplomas that can't change
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: their oil on their car or build a fence. And
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: those are other types of smarts. And there are all
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: different ways to be smart.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: I'm not saying that at all.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: No, of course not.
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: I think if you listen to our election polling episode,
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: a divide between college-educated and non-college-educated voters... was created in
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: 2016 where it hadn't been there before. And now that
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: is a major part of American politics. Right.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: So along with North Carolina this year, and again, you know,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: this is what they expect to see. It could be
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: turned on its ear once again, and states could be
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: in the mix that we didn't even forecast. You never know.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: But right now they're saying that North Carolina, Arizona, Florida,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: always Florida is so important.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Some people say New Hampshire. Some people
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: say Georgia.
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: That's a big one.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: That's a big one. Georgia hasn't voted for a Democratic
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: presidential candidate, I think. I mean, has it been since Clinton?
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I would say.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Since 92. And I think Texas, remarkably, and Georgia have
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: both drifted left by four points with each of the
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: last couple of elections. And they're saying that, you know,
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: it's going to be very Tight in Georgia. And I
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: don't think anyone is anticipating that it will flip.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: But it's purple and in the mix for the first
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: time in a long time.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Which is really saying something, because, I mean, in
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: Georgia for many years, if you were a Democrat, it
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: just did not matter. Like you just didn't need to
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: bother to vote. And that's a big problem with swing
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: states in the electoral college that we'll talk about.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: And you mean that metaphorically, by the way.
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: Right, exactly. But, I mean, there's this whole concept of
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: a wasted vote in a safe state for the opposition party.
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: Their vote's wasted. But we'll talk about that later.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: But just like there's some surprising states that are now
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: considered swing states or battleground states in 2020, there's also
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: some that have customarily been swing states that aren't necessarily swing.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: And the big standout one for that is Ohio. Ohio
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: has voted for the president correctly, or I should say
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: they went. The nominee or the candidate that Ohio voted
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: for has been the president, the one who won the
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: presidential race in, like, dozens of elections. Maybe not dozens,
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: but they've been voting correctly for the president, correctly picking
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: the president. I feel like I'm digging myself deeper into
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: a hole here. Anyway, what that says about Ohio is that, wow,
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Ohio is like really a thinking group, politically speaking, because
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: we have had Republican presidents and we have had Democrat
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: presidents throughout the last few decades. And Ohio has, you know, voted...
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: differently just about every time. And that says that Ohio
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: is a longstanding swing state. Well, Ohio was flipped in 2016,
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: and there's a lot of political observers who are like,
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: Ohio now leans conservative. It's now a red state. And
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: that's a really surprising turn of events for 2020.
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia are three of
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: the traditional swing states that have been taken off that list.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Arizona and Georgia. I don't think Texas is officially on
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: the list at all, but I think because Texas has
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: always been so solidly conservative, for it to eke towards
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: the Democrats at all just makes a lot of hay.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: So there's a lot more talk about it on the
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: news and stuff like that because there's so much media influence.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: And I think that the liberal media probably thinks that, like, oh,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Texas is leaning. Maybe we can help push them over
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: the edge if we talk about it all the time.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, probably.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: Because that's how things work if you listen to the
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: polling podcast. And like you mentioned earlier, Minnesota– hasn't voted
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: for a Republican in about 50 years. And they are,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: you know, they have inched a little bit right.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Trump just missed Minnesota and Clinton just
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: barely won Minnesota by like 3% and Maine by one
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: and a half percent. So those two are definitely in
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: play like they haven't been in a while.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: Should we take another break?
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: Let's take another break. And then we're going to come
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: back and talk about, get this, swing states.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: Learning stuff is fun with Josh and Chuck.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: Stuff you should know. Learning things with Chuck and Chuck.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: Learning all the things. Stuff you should know.
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: So Chuck, one of the things that we talked about
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: early on is that swing states basically tell campaigns where
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: they need to concentrate their focus. Right. Their money, their candidates' time,
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: you know, election stops, that kind of thing, stumping. Right.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: They do that.
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: Like that's where the vast.
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: Majority of the money goes is the advertising campaigns in
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: these swing states. Florida is a really good example of
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: a longstanding swing state that gets tons and tons of
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: advertising money.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Florida is such an interesting state to me because
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: it's really hard to pin down politically. And I think
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: it's because I think more so than almost any other
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: state except– maybe California, I feel like there are more
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: versions of Florida than almost any other state has versions
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: of itself.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: And it's not, I mean, Florida's not small. It's not
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: the size of California, but, you know, you think about
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: the Gulf Coast and then inland from the Gulf Coast,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: very different people.
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the people inland wouldn't be caught dead in Floribama.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah. You think about Miami Beach. And that area and
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Key West and Fort Lauderdale. And then you've got the
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: interior of like the Tampa Clearwater area, which is really different.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: And then let's not forget about the most magical place
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: on earth, Orlando.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Well, you've got Orlando and then you've also got up
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: in the north, you know, borderline Georgia. You have places
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: like Jacksonville and St. Augustine and just Florida has so
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: many different kinds of places within its own state. It
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: doesn't surprise me that it's really hard to pin down
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: politically because it's hard to pin down just sort of culturally.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: I think. Right. And because you have so many different
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: places that geographically inform the voters that are so demographically diverse,
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: all in one state, then that, of course, is going
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: to be a swing state. And Florida probably always will
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: be a swing state just for those reasons.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah. The retirees are a big, they always point to
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: retirees in Florida, traditional conservatives. But apparently the youngest three
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: generations of amount to 54% of registered voters there now.
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: That's surprising.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I guess the sad way to say
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: it is that many of these people are dying.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, surely. I mean, an elderly population is
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: going to eventually die off. Then you got a younger
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: population that's actually going to age into it. But it
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: seems like right now the elderly population in Florida has
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: been losing ground numbers-wise while the younger populations have been
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: gaining ground.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: That's right. They're coming after you.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: It's good for a state because you need all those
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: young people to work to take care of all those
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: old people. So Florida gets a tremendous amount of attention,
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: a lot of money, a lot of campaign visits, all
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: that stuff. And because it's a swing state, all swing
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: states get that kind of stuff in presidential elections. But
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: people in other states, especially in solid states that have
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: gone one way for many, many election cycles– Those people say, well, hey,
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: what about us? We want attention. We want these campaign stops.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: We have things that are important to us that we
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: want to talk to you about and hear from you about.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: We don't care about Florida. We care about Idaho. So
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: come to Idaho and talk to us in Idaho. And
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: the candidate usually says, like, I don't even know where
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: Idaho is.
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: Please leave me alone.
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to pay attention to Florida, and you're being
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: very distracting right now.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and here's the thing. Like, in my mind, I say–
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: who cares if a presidential candidate comes and talks to
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: people at a dumb rally? Like, does that really matter?
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: But what they do is, you know, it's not just
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: a broad sort of, let me make a stop there.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: It's very pinpointed and calculated. Like, they might be going
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: after a really specific constituency there. Like, because how close
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: some of these swing states are, and they might say,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: you know what, if we can get auto workers to
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: vote for you, will be set. Or if we can
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: get people that work on public roads and infrastructure flipped
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: our way, then we can win by a thousand votes.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: And so they may make pit stops in these states
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: to go to the factory. I mean, that's why they
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: do that stuff. It's not just to, you know, I mean,
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: it's all just very calculated and very specific.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: Right, because the viewer on TV is like, hey, I
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: work in a factory and they're in a factory right now.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: They must mean that they really identify with my needs
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: and wants.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: Well, true. And that's someone from another state that also
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: just happens to work in a factory. But the people
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: in that state feel like, wow, they're here to talk
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: to the coal miners.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: Right. I can't believe they came to Michigan. No one
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: ever comes to Michigan on purpose.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Hey, we went to Michigan on purpose. Once. Are we?
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: We haven't ragged on Detroit in a long time.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: No, it's been a while. But that's really what we're
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: talking about. Michigan is code for Detroit when you're talking
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: about not going to Michigan.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: But it's just interesting how pinpointed and how just like
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: razor sharp and focused and laser focus campaigns are these
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: days with talking to very specific groups of people. If
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: they think they can win a thousand votes out of
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: a state, that could make a difference.
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: It can because, again, here's why.
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: Literally a thousand votes– could make the president in a
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: state because of that winner-take-all electoral votes. Whereas if like
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: those states use the district system like Maine and Nebraska,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: you know, if you won 51% to 49%, you might
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: get half of the delegates and they get the other half, basically.
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: But the fact that it's winner-take-all is that, yeah, those
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: extra thousand votes really count in a good-sized state for
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: 10 electoral votes, 20 electoral votes. So it's definitely worth
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: spending that much time and focus on one single state.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: And a lot of other states resent a lot of
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: non-swing states. So safe states resent swing states because they
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: say basically it's up to Ohio and Virginia to decide
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: who gets to be president. The rest of us are
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: going to go vote as we're expected to, because if
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: you're in a safe state, it doesn't matter if you
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: win by a thousand votes or win by a million votes.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: You're going to it's winner take all again, too. So
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: you're not going to pay that much attention. And really,
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: you're not in a way you're not producing the president.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: That's a little cynical, in my opinion, because without that solid,
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: safe state, you wouldn't have that foundation that the president,
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: the candidate is building these swing state electoral votes off of. Yeah,
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's fully accurate, but there does seem
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: to be like some sour grapes among safe state people.
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: That makes sense to me.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: But most of all, Chuck, when you're talking about people
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: who feel like their vote is wasted because they're voting
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: for the party that's the opposite of how the state
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: traditionally goes. So if you're a Georgia voter and you're
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: a Democrat for the last several elections, you could very
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: easily feel like your vote was so wasted. You might
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: not even bother going to the polls because your vote
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: in this sense of electoral college. This is a really
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: good reason to do away with the electoral college vote.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: as far as the electoral college is concerned, your vote
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: didn't count. You, you had no reason to go vote
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: as far as electing the president goes, because it was
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: washed away and drowned out by all the other votes
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: that went toward the other candidate. And since it's a
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: winner take all system of, of electoral votes that, that
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: your vote didn't matter because they were always going to
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: win all those delegates because you were going to get outvoted.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: Right. But, um, And I'm glad you said president specifically.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: You should always vote for the president, of course, but
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: there are so many ballot measures and local considerations on
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: the ballot, local elections that really have such an impact
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: that you always, always, always vote. But it's almost like
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: filling out your census form in a way. It's the
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: only information that we have of where a state is
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: politically is you casting your vote. So if you cast
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: your vote in Georgia like I do and Donald Trump
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: wins Georgia again, it's not a wasted vote because the
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party will look up the numbers and say, wow,
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: like they're doing now. Look how many– Stacey Abrams almost
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: got elected, the first African-American female governor in the United States,
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: almost won in Georgia in an election that many people
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: thought was undermined by the Republican candidate with voter suppression.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: And that was a big deal. So now that's why
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: so much attention is on Georgia. Because it's like you're
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: filling out your little census thing. You're casting that vote.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: And they're saying, OK, well, Georgia's in the mix now.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: We're going to campaign in Georgia more.
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: Plus, also, there's another really good reason to vote in
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: those situations as well. Like I'm sure other voters in
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: Vermont who felt like they were probably wasting their vote
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: in 1992, but they went dutifully to the polls and
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: exercised their real basic important right as a citizen, their
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: right to vote.
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: And Bill Clinton ended up flipping the state.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: Had those people been like, it's just a waste of
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: vote anyway and stayed home, that state wouldn't have been flipped. Right.
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: The same goes for Wisconsin or Michigan.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: For Trump in 2016. So there's a lot of good
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: reasons to go out and vote, even if you feel
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: like your vote is wasted. That's just, it's just too cynical.
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: You know, and I understand, especially during the coronavirus pandemic,
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: you know, things are definitely different. But under normal circumstances, especially,
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: the idea of just staying home and not voting, unless
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: you're pro against your party's candidate, that's different.
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: Well, then go write in a candidate.
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: Okay, sure. I mean, just the idea of.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: Getting out to the polls on Election Day and participating
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: in government on that one day every four years even,
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: It's important. It's just important in ways that you can't
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: fully put your finger on, but you just know it's
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: important and important enough to just do it.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: Well, it's a right that people in this country literally
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: lost their lives to ensure. And it's a right that
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: not everyone in this country had until fairly recently. And
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: so it would be a very sort of privileged. I
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: know that word is thrown around a lot, but it's
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: a it's a truly privileged frame of mind to think,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: why bother voting? when so many people in this country,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: women and people of color, didn't even have the right
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: to vote in, you know, within the last, like, hundred years. Right.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: So it just, that's something that, that's the only thing
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: that really burns me up. Vote for whoever you want
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: to vote for, but if you sit at home and
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: you don't even vote, then.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Just get out.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: And you know what, Chuck? Yeah, vote or die, as P.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: Diddy says.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: Who's that, P. Diddy?
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So one other thing that really has grabbed me
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: in the last, like, several years is the idea, you know,
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: when I was a younger lad, I was like, voting
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: doesn't even matter. It doesn't count. Everything's controlled by the
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: Illuminati anyway.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you were a young anarchist. Right.
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: So the idea that.
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: That the Russians are meddling in our election and that
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: the candidates take the election so seriously and super PACs
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: raise so much money to spend to try to sway
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: people's public opinions. The idea that that actually happens in
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: real life, to me, goes to support the idea that
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: your votes actually do count that voting really does matter
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: in the United States still. And things are not so
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: thrown off course and controlled and under the thumb of
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: people who, who, um, you know, are really pulling the
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: strings and calling the shots that that actually doesn't exist
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: that in reality voting matters.
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: And I think that the, the, the threats to.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: Voting that we've seen over the last like several years, um,
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: have really kind of driven that home for me. Yeah.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: And you know what? By the time this comes out,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: there'll be a couple of months to go before the
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: election or actually maybe one month to go. Check your
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: voter registration. Make sure you know where you're going to vote.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: If you're voting early, make sure you understand that. If
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: you're voting absentee or by mail, make sure you fully
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: understand how that all works. Don't be surprised on election day.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: You don't want any surprises. You want to make sure
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: you know exactly how you're going to vote and that
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: you can ensure that you can vote.
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: Absolutely.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: Go to USA.gov to check out voter registration and to
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: make sure that you are, to confirm that you're registered
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: to vote.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: I still check.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I checked recently, too, and I tweeted it out
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: on the Stuff You Should Know podcast Twitter platform, too.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: Totally. And we should put a bow on this one
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: by talking a little bit about the national popular vote.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Interstate Compact.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: You read my mind.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: And this, the NPVIC, this is a group of states
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: that advocate for a different plan moving forward. These are
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: states and people that say, how can a candidate win
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: by 3 million votes or 500,000 votes and not be president?
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Because that is clearly not the will of the people.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: We have a broken system. Let's get rid of this
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: electoral college. And right now there are Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: New Mexico, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, D.C.,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: and Hawaii are all signed up in a past legislation
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: to enter this compact with several more pending. Ohio, Pennsylvania,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, and Virginia are pending.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: Right. And so what this compact says is the state
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: signs on to the compact that says under normal electoral
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: college rules, we give our electoral votes to whoever wins
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: the statewide ballot. Instead, we're going to give it to
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: whoever wins the national vote, the national popular vote. So
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: even if, say, Joe Biden loses Idaho, if Idaho was
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: signed on to this and this thing were in effect,
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: but he won the national popular vote, Idaho would give
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: its electoral votes to Biden. So that the states are
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: going to follow the popular vote and basically go around
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: the Electoral College.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, not abolish it.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: This requires none of that. It's the state signing on
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: to go around the Electoral College by using the Electoral College.
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: And I mean, we should say, too, the Electoral College
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: is part of the framers vision for the Constitution. But
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: they specifically added this provision to keep the popular vote
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: from selecting the president. They wanted to keep this elite
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: group of politicos in charge of who actually picked the president.
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: And that's they created the Electoral College to get in
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: the way of the popular vote.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting.
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: It really is. So that's swing states, eh?
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: That's swing states.
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: If you want to know more about swing states, start
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: reading up on swing states. Start reading up on politics.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: It's pretty interesting stuff. And like we said earlier, go vote.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: Just vote.
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: And since I said that, everybody, it's time for Listener Mail.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: This is from McKenna Bridge, and this is in defense
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: of baby carrots. Just like Chuck, the thought of baby
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: carrots disgusted me in the past, conjuring up images of
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: towering piles of food waste that I imagined were the
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: byproduct of these smooth little suckers. But we got it
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: all wrong, my friend. While the baby carrot is, of course,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: a very manicured and aesthetically pleasing version of the real
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: carrot pulled straight from the soil, their invention basically changed
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: the entire carrot industry forever. And there was a guy
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: named Mike Urosik. who decided to smooth carrots down in
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: the 1980s into these little aerodynamic bite-sized cylinders, and they
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: were called baby carrots. He figured carrots were ugly and
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: too plentiful to profit from as farmers, so they had
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: a long growing season, and the people just weren't buying them.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: So Mike Urosik introduces the baby carrot, and boom, carrot
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: sales absolutely skyrocketed. And even today's baby carrots frequently top
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: the list for the largest share of supermarket sales.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: Asking about the peels, guys? Well, they are just about
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: the perfect byproduct for making carrot juice. Baby carrots are tasty, convenient,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: and turns out a wonderful invention. The more you know, right? Anyway,
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: I'm not completely caught up on your podcast, so maybe
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: someone has beat me to the punch. But I didn't
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: want to chance y'all making fools of yourself the next
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: time baby carrots comes up. I think you guys are great.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Keep up the amazing work. You're a loyal listener and
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: baby carrot convert. McKenna Bridge. And I even looked it up, too,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: and I think I saw that it was a myth
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: that they are bleached.
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: It sounds like something I would buy into.
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: It sounds like something I'd buy into, too. Big carrot. Or,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, small carrot.
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, carrots are bleached. The Illuminati really runs things.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: So, you know, I haven't fully vetted all that, but
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: that's what McKenna Bridge says, is that they really turned
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: around carrots as a whole thing. And that they do
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: use those shavings for characters is what she says.
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: Well, McKenna, that was really great stuff. Thank you for
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: trying to keep us from making fools of ourselves again.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: It's not going to work.
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: No, it won't stick. If you want to get in
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: touch with us like McKenna did, you can send us
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: an email to stuffpodcasts at iheartradio.com.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: Stuff You Should Know is a production of iHeartRadio. For
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.