Latest / The President's Daily Brief / September 4th, 2026: Iran’s Economic Lifeline Is Starting to Break & Rival Ukrainian Agents Open Fire

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September 4th, 2026: Iran’s Economic Lifeline Is Starting to Break & Rival Ukrainian Agents Open Fire · The President's Daily Brief

0:12
It's Friday,
0:13
the 4th of September.
0:14
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
0:16
I'm Mike Baker,
0:17
your eyes and ears
0:18
on the world stage.
0:20
All right,
0:21
let's get briefed.
0:22
First up,
0:23
America's economic campaign and blockade against Iran
0:26
is beginning to seriously impact the regime,
0:29
driving oil shipments down 85%
0:33
and leaving Tehran with just months of gasoline in reserve.
0:37
Later in the show,
0:38
a gunfight between Ukraine's rival intelligence services
0:42
leaves 3 officers wounded and exposes a dangerous power struggle inside Kiev.
0:47
Well,
0:48
say what you will about the US intel community,
0:51
but they rarely get in firefights amongst themselves.
0:54
That's just bad form.
0:56
Plus,
0:56
Pakistan says it killed 15 militants attempting to cross from Afghanistan
1:00
after a firefight lasting more than a day.
1:03
And in today's back of the brief,
1:05
Syria begins destroying the remnants of
1:08
Bashar al-Assad's secret chemical weapons program.
1:12
But first,
1:13
today's PDB spotlight.
1:15
For decades,
1:16
Iran became remarkably skilled
1:18
at surviving American sanctions.
1:21
The regime moved oil aboard unregistered tankers,
1:24
routed transactions through front companies and foreign banks,
1:27
smuggled goods across its borders,
1:29
and paid intermediaries to assume the risks that legitimate businesses would not.
1:34
But a new report from Reuters suggests that system is beginning to break down.
1:39
We've been tracking the impact of America's naval
1:41
blockade and expanding sanctions campaign on Iran's economy
1:44
and internal stability.
1:46
We've already reported on the country's gasoline deficit,
1:50
medicine shortages,
1:51
and collapsing currency.
1:53
The new development is that 3 senior Iranian sources
1:57
now say Tehran is running out of
1:59
affordable ways to keep its sanctioned economy connected
2:02
to the outside world.
2:04
The blockade has dramatically reduced Iran's ability to export oil,
2:09
while America's expanded secondary sanctions are
2:11
threatening the countries and banks and businesses
2:14
that continue dealing with Tehran.
2:17
Those companies and governments now face a choice
2:19
sever their remaining connections to Iran
2:22
or risk losing access to the American financial system
2:25
and the dollar transactions needed to conduct international business.
2:29
And for many of them,
2:30
Iran simply isn't worth that risk.
2:33
Iranian crude loadings have fallen to approximately 260,000 barrels per day.
2:38
That's according to the commodity analytics firm Kepler.
2:42
One year ago Iran was loading roughly 1.7 million barrels per day.
2:47
That represents a decline of nearly 85%.
2:50
And the country's most important source of revenue
2:53
now Tehran insists that it still has tens of millions of
2:56
barrels stored aboard tankers that are outside the American blockade zone,
3:00
but having oil
3:01
and finding someone willing to buy,
3:03
transport,
3:04
and process the payments,
3:06
well,
3:06
those are entirely different things.
3:08
One of the Iranian officials told Reuters that intermediaries
3:11
are now backing away or demanding considerably more money
3:15
to help Tehran move its crude,
3:17
and that creates a compounding problem for the regime.
3:20
As oil revenue falls,
3:22
Iran has less foreign currency available to pay
3:24
the premiums demanded by smugglers and tanker operators,
3:28
front companies,
3:29
and foreign financial networks.
3:31
The sanctions evasion system becomes more expensive
3:33
at precisely the moment that Tehran has less money available to operate it.
3:38
And one of Iran's most important commercial escape routes has already been closed,
3:43
as we reported back in August on the PDB.
3:46
The United Arab Emirates,
3:48
the UAE,
3:49
suspended all trade,
3:50
commercial exchanges,
3:51
and financial dealings with Iran.
3:54
The UAE was frankly more than another Iranian trading partner.
3:58
Dubai served as a gateway through which Iranian businesses could purchase goods,
4:03
move money,
4:04
and connect with international suppliers that would not deal with them directly.
4:08
Before the war,
4:09
the UAE supplied approximately 30% of Iran's imports.
4:14
Now an Iranian trader tells Reuters that
4:16
suppliers are demanding cash,
4:18
transactions must be routed through additional countries,
4:21
and shipments are taking longer and becoming much more expensive.
4:25
President Massoud Pozshkin
4:27
recently acknowledged that Iranian trade has fallen between 25 and 35%,
4:32
with imports suffering more than exports.
4:36
Inside Iran,
4:37
the consequences are becoming increasingly difficult to conceal.
4:40
The rial has fallen from approximately $1 million against the dollar,
4:44
that would be about a year ago,
4:46
to now more than $2.2 million against the dollar.
4:50
Official figures put average annual inflation at nearly 70%.
4:54
Prices for food,
4:55
beverages,
4:55
tobacco are increasing at almost twice that rate.
4:59
Unemployment reached 9.1% this spring
5:02
while approximately 450,000 fewer Iranians
5:06
are working than just one year ago.
5:08
And for those who still have jobs,
5:10
well,
5:10
the numbers barely add up.
5:12
The average monthly salary in Iran is now worth approximately $125 US dollars,
5:18
while official estimates put basic household expenses at roughly $450 per month.
5:25
One private sector employee in Tehran described the situation to Reuters,
5:28
quote,
5:29
We are getting poorer every day.
5:32
And Iran's leaders understand where that kind of pressure can lead.
5:35
The regime is still confronting the political consequences of
5:38
the nationwide demonstrations that it crushed in January.
5:41
When thousands of protesters were killed by the IRGC and the Basij militia,
5:45
gasoline shortages,
5:47
unpaid wages,
5:48
unemployment,
5:48
or another sudden increase in prices,
5:51
they could trigger further civil unrest.
5:53
Reuters reports that the conflict is now entering
5:56
a phase in which Washington and Tehran are
5:58
each trying to influence the other's domestic politics.
6:02
The Trump administration hopes economic pressure
6:04
will push Iranians against the regime
6:06
and force Tehran to accept American demands.
6:09
Iran meanwhile,
6:11
is betting that disrupted shipping and higher energy prices
6:14
will fuel inflation in the US and weaken support for the war
6:18
before November's midterm elections.
6:21
Neither strategy has yet
6:23
produced a decisive result.
6:25
Iran has not accepted Washington's demands or returned to negotiations,
6:30
and economic suffering does not
6:32
automatically translate into political surrender,
6:35
particularly
6:36
when the regime's leadership and IRGC are fine with
6:39
pushing that pain and suffering down to the population.
6:42
It's not like the leadership of the IRGC commanders or political elite in Iran
6:46
are going to miss any meals or sit in a gas station line.
6:50
The regime has extensive experience
6:52
repressing unrest and forcing ordinary Iranians
6:55
to absorb the consequences of the regime's decisions.
6:59
And Tehran
7:00
could also respond to additional economic
7:02
pressure with more military escalation.
7:05
Still,
7:06
this new reporting suggests that Washington's campaign
7:08
is entering a more consequential phase.
7:11
Iran is not simply losing oil revenue.
7:14
The networks that Tehran once relied on to work around American pressure
7:18
are becoming too expensive to sustain.
7:21
If those channels continue closing,
7:23
the regime will have less money to finance the government,
7:26
fewer ways to import essential goods,
7:29
and less ability
7:30
to shield itself from growing anger at home.
7:34
OK.
7:34
Coming up next,
7:36
3 Ukrainian intelligence officers are wounded in
7:38
a shootout between rival intelligence agencies,
7:42
and a 36 hour border battle leaves 15 militants dead in Pakistan.
7:47
I'll be right back.
7:51
Hey,
7:51
Mike Baker here.
7:52
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Welcome back to the PDB.
8:58
There was a gunfight in Kiev this week,
9:00
and oddly Russia had nothing to do with it.
9:03
Instead,
9:04
the fight came from within Ukraine's own security establishment,
9:07
where a bitter rivalry
9:09
between two intelligence agencies turned violent.
9:12
Before I walk you through exactly how this ended with
9:14
armed men shooting at each other in the Ukrainian capital,
9:17
let me explain who we're talking about and why
9:19
there's apparently so much bad blood between them.
9:22
On one side is the SPU,
9:24
that's Ukraine's Domestic Security and Counterintelligence Service.
9:28
The other is HUR,
9:30
the country's military intelligence agency.
9:33
For comparison,
9:34
think of the SPU as roughly Ukraine's FBI,
9:37
while HUR is closer to
9:39
the U.S.'s Defense Intelligence Agency,
9:41
but with its own forces carrying out covert operations.
9:45
These are two of the most important organizations in Ukraine's war against Russia.
9:49
Here on the PDB,
9:50
we've discussed many times how
9:52
both have carried out clandestine operations
9:55
inside Russia and Russian occupied territory,
9:58
including assassinations of enemy military officers.
10:01
But while they're supposed to be focused on the same enemy,
10:04
people familiar with the agencies who spoke to the Wall
10:07
Street Journal say they've also been increasingly competing with one another
10:11
for influence,
10:12
resources,
10:12
and clout inside Kiev.
10:15
That rivalry has only deepened following major leadership changes.
10:20
Much of that change is centered around HUR,
10:22
which Karilo Budinov spent years transforming the
10:25
organization into one of Ukraine's most prominent institutions
10:28
during the war.
10:30
Then in January
10:31
Zelensky tapped Buinov for an even more powerful position,
10:34
naming him his chief of staff
10:37
after his predecessor resigned amid a corruption scandal.
10:40
The move brought Buinov directly into Zelensky's inner circle
10:44
at a time when the president was looking to strengthen his
10:46
team on national security and U.S.backed negotiations over the war.
10:51
That left someone else to take over HUR
10:54
Ole Alashenko,
10:56
a former foreign intelligence chief,
10:59
replaced Budenov and has adopted a lower profile approach,
11:02
showing less interest in publicly celebrating the agency's
11:05
daring military operations.
11:07
But Budenov hasn't exactly disappeared from the picture.
11:11
People familiar with the HUR say he continues
11:13
to wield considerable influence over his former agency.
11:17
Particularly among fighters in
11:18
an elite HUR-controlled paramilitary organization
11:22
known as the Timor Special Forces.
11:24
Timor
11:25
includes thousands of experienced soldiers,
11:27
many of whom
11:28
reportedly remain fiercely loyal to Budenov.
11:32
One of the units operating under Timor is the Russian Volunteer Corps,
11:36
that's a group made up of Russian citizens
11:38
who have chosen to fight against Moscow on Ukraine's behalf.
11:42
Its deputy commander is a Russian national named Stepan Kalpunov.
11:46
Now,
11:47
in late August,
11:47
the SPU detained Kalpunov
11:50
and held him for roughly a week without charges,
11:53
according to his lawyer.
11:54
By Tuesday,
11:55
the Russian Volunteer Corps was publicly appealing for information
11:59
about where he was being held.
12:01
Later that day,
12:02
SPU special forces known as Alpha Group
12:04
brought Kalunov to an apartment in central Kiev
12:07
being used by HUR-backed Timur fighters
12:10
where the SPU intended to carry out a search as part of its investigation.
12:14
But the Timur fighters refused to let them in,
12:17
and when the two sides couldn't reach an agreement,
12:19
the fighters called their superiors.
12:21
Their commander then arrived with
12:23
additional soldiers.
12:25
So what started with the detention of one
12:27
Russian fighter was quickly turning into an armed standoff
12:30
between elite forces tied to two rival Ukrainian intelligence services.
12:35
By late evening,
12:36
dozens of armed men had gathered in the courtyard of the apartment complex,
12:40
and then around 11 p.m.,
12:42
the situation exploded,
12:43
with residents hearing gunfire lasting into Wednesday morning.
12:46
Now exactly who fired the first shot
12:49
remains disputed.
12:51
But whoever started it,
12:52
3 members of the HUR-backed force were wounded.
12:56
Kalpunov was subsequently released from SPU custody,
12:59
and his lawyer says it's still unclear exactly what he was accused of,
13:03
which brings us to what may be the most
13:05
damaging part of this chaotic scene for Zelensky.
13:08
His administration is already facing
13:10
investigations into corruption among senior officials
13:13
and wrongdoing inside parts of the military,
13:15
while Russia,
13:16
of course,
13:16
continues escalating its war.
13:18
Now on top of all of that,
13:20
Zelensky has to explain how a feud
13:23
between two of the country's premier intelligence agencies
13:26
became serious enough for their elite forces to exchange gunfire in the capital.
13:30
He's demanded that his intelligence chiefs
13:33
provide a clear explanation of what happened
13:35
while Ukraine's main investigative agency
13:38
has now opened a formal probe.
13:41
I want to turn now to the
13:42
increasingly volatile border between Pakistan and Afghanistan,
13:46
where Pakistani forces say they killed 15 militants attempting
13:50
to cross into their country earlier this week.
13:53
According to Pakistan's military,
13:54
the militants were detected Tuesday as they attempted to enter North Waziristan
13:59
from neighboring Afghanistan,
14:01
triggering a gun battle that lasted roughly 36 hours.
14:05
Pakistani officials identified the militants as members
14:08
of Tariq e Taliban Pakistan or TTP
14:11
and said troops recovered a significant amount of weapons and ammunition
14:15
following the fighting.
14:16
Now,
14:17
as we've discussed before on the PDB,
14:19
the TTP is separate from Afghanistan's Taliban government
14:23
but closely aligned with it,
14:24
and the group's activities have become the
14:27
central source of an increasingly dangerous confrontation
14:30
between Islamabad and Kabul.
14:32
Pakistan says TTP leaders and fighters have found sanctuary across the
14:36
border since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021.
14:41
That of course was following the chaotic US withdrawal,
14:44
and they say they allow the group to use
14:46
Afghanistan as a base for attacks inside Pakistan.
14:50
The Taliban government of course denies those allegations.
14:54
Islamabad also accused India of sponsoring the
14:56
militants involved in this week's infiltration attempt,
14:59
something that Pakistan has repeatedly alleged about the TDP
15:02
and other militant groups.
15:04
Both New Delhi and Kabul
15:06
deny supporting militants targeting Pakistan,
15:09
and neither government has commented on this latest incident.
15:12
But the timing is significant because Pakistan and Afghanistan are once again
15:17
trying to find a diplomatic way out of their confrontation.
15:21
Just one day before the latest fighting was announced,
15:24
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said improved relations with Afghanistan
15:27
would depend on what it called verifiable written assurances
15:31
that Afghan territory will not be used
15:33
to launch attacks against Pakistan.
15:36
China is also attempting to mediate.
15:39
A Chinese envoy visited Islamabad this week as part of an effort to ease tensions
15:44
between the two countries after Beijing hosted talks in April
15:47
aimed at ending the fighting.
15:49
Those negotiations followed a major escalation back in February that
15:53
killed hundreds of people and eventually
15:55
saw Pakistan carry out air strikes inside Afghanistan.
15:59
Since then,
15:59
the two governments have avoided another major round of fighting,
16:03
but according to the Associated Press,
16:05
Pakistan and Afghanistan have not held direct talks
16:08
since those Chinese hosted negotiations back in April.
16:12
And this week's border battle underscores
16:14
why the relationship remains so fragile.
16:17
Pakistan's military says the attempted infiltration is further evidence
16:21
that Afghanistan's Taliban government
16:23
is either unwilling or unable
16:26
to prevent TTP militants from using its territory to attack Pakistan.
16:31
So despite months of mediation and a relative reduction in fighting,
16:35
the fundamental dispute that pushed Pakistan and
16:38
Afghanistan into open conflict earlier this year,
16:41
well,
16:41
that remains unresolved.
16:44
All
16:44
right.
16:44
Coming up in the back of the brief,
16:46
Syria's new government begins dismantling
16:48
a clandestine chemical weapons program
16:51
concealed under Bashar al-Assad's regime.
16:55
More on that
16:56
when we come back.
16:59
Hey,
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Mike Baker here.
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18:03
In today's back of the brief,
18:04
I want to talk about how Syria's new government
18:07
is dismantling one of the darkest remnants of their country's civil war,
18:11
the chemical weapons program that Bashar
18:14
al-Assad's regime used against its own people
18:17
and tried to hide from the world.
18:19
For the first time in more than a decade,
18:21
international inspectors have now verified
18:23
that the destruction of the program's materials is actually taking place.
18:27
This latest development began back in May when Syria's new leadership.
18:31
Discovered remnants of Assad's chemical weapons program.
18:35
Among what they found were raw materials and munitions similar to
18:38
those used in deadly chemical attacks during Syria's civil war,
18:42
but that apparently wasn't all that Assad left behind.
18:45
The UN says authorities identified
18:47
another chemical weapons production facility,
18:50
a previously undisclosed chemical used to produce nerve agents,
18:53
empty chemical munitions,
18:55
and two chemical weapons storage facilities.
18:58
And that brings us to last month.
19:00
The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons,
19:02
and you say to yourself,
19:03
I'll bet there's an acronym for that,
19:05
and you'd be right,
19:06
it's OPCW,
19:07
sent a team into Syria to begin verifying the destruction
19:11
of some of what the new government had uncovered.
19:13
And then on Thursday,
19:14
UN officials revealed
19:16
what those inspectors found.
19:18
The OPCW has now verified the irreversible destruction of 42 aerial bombs
19:24
associated with Assad's former chemical weapons program.
19:28
Now there's an important distinction here.
19:29
These weren't 42 bombs sitting around filled with sarin or another nerve agent.
19:34
They were empty aerial bombs designed to deliver chemicals,
19:38
part of what the OPCW classifies as
19:40
Category 3 chemical weapons.
19:43
But that doesn't make their destruction any less significant
19:47
because for the first time since 2014 international inspectors
19:50
have verified the destruction of chemical munitions inside Syria.
19:54
You may recall that Assad's regime was supposed to
19:57
cooperate in an international effort more than a decade ago
20:00
to dismantle and destroy Syria's chemical arsenal.
20:04
Assad was supposed to be giving the weapons up.
20:07
Yet all these years later,
20:08
Syria's new leadership is still uncovering previously undisclosed facilities,
20:13
chemicals,
20:13
and munitions
20:14
connected to Assad's program.
20:17
But the new government isn't simply destroying what it finds.
20:20
It's also beginning
20:21
to pursue the people allegedly responsible for building
20:24
and operating Assad's chemical arsenal.
20:27
Authorities in Damascus have so far taken 18 suspects into custody,
20:31
including
20:32
former high-level military,
20:33
political,
20:34
and technical officials
20:35
allegedly connected to the program.
20:38
Now some of those cases appear to be moving toward the courtroom.
20:41
Syria's ambassador to the UN
20:43
says the government is
20:44
preparing to hold the first court
20:46
hearing involving people suspected of participating
20:49
in the chemical weapons program.
20:52
Syria's ambassador says Syria is protecting the world
20:56
and the region
20:57
through such work.
20:58
There is,
20:59
however,
21:00
one complication.
21:01
The ambassador accused Israel of interfering with that mission,
21:04
saying recent Israeli strikes inside Syria
21:07
have disrupted some search and destruction operations
21:10
and put the Syrian teams carrying out that work at risk.
21:15
The broader picture here at the end of the day is that
21:17
more than a decade after Assad
21:19
supposedly began surrendering his chemical arsenal,
21:23
international inspectors are still uncovering pieces
21:26
of what his regime left behind.
21:29
And that my friends is the president's daily brief for Friday,
21:32
the 4th of September.
21:33
Now if you have any questions or comments,
21:35
and I hope you do,
21:35
just reach out to me
21:36
at PDB@thefirstv.com.
21:40
And finally,
21:40
it is indeed Friday,
21:42
and as you likely know,
21:44
9 out of.
21:44
10 podcast listeners prefer Fridays over other days
21:48
because every Friday we launch a brand new episode of our extended weekend show,
21:52
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21:54
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21:56
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21:57
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22:00
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22:01
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22:03
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22:05
Just search up at President's Daily Brief.
22:07
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22:09
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22:12
I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today
22:14
with the PDB
22:16
afternoon bulletin.
22:17
Until then,
22:18
stay informed,
22:19
stay safe,
22:20
stay cool.