Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Won’t Say It… But He Knows The Economy Sucks + Democrats Split On “Fight vs. Unite” Approach

Transcript

Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Won’t Say It… But He Knows The Economy Sucks + Democrats Split On “Fight vs. Unite” Approach · The Chuck ToddCast

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Speaker 1: that code. Hello there, I'm Chuck Todd. Welcome to another
1:53
Speaker 1: episode of the Chuck Podcast. So got another pack show
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2:00
Speaker 1: I think you'll be intrigued by that. I let's just
2:04
Speaker 1: say I enjoyed putting that one together. I want to
2:06
Speaker 1: talk a little bit about an interesting phenomenon that I
2:10
Speaker 1: think is developing on the democratic side of the aisle.
2:13
Speaker 1: It's the subject of my substack this week. Again, I
2:16
Speaker 1: have a free substack. I'm not going to charge you
2:19
Speaker 1: because I don't want to paywall here. This is why
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Speaker 1: I've paid advertising on this and why you know trust me,
2:25
Speaker 1: I get fun little emails from you. I'm like, oh,
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Speaker 1: why are you advertising this? Why are you I'm taking
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Speaker 1: advertising money so I can make this paywall free if
2:35
Speaker 1: you will so. But I think you'll be intrigued by
2:38
Speaker 1: a thesis that I've developed on my substack this week
2:41
Speaker 1: that involves Gavin Newsom, Mark Kelly, and Jasmine Crockett. All
2:45
Speaker 1: three of them walk into a bar. No, but the
2:47
Speaker 1: three of them have something in common. I want to
2:49
Speaker 1: get into that. But before we then, look, let's this
2:52
Speaker 1: appears to be the week that Donald Trump wants to
2:54
Speaker 1: deal with the economy, or wants to show that he's
2:56
Speaker 1: dealing with the economy. A trip to Pennsylvania Monday, he
3:00
Speaker 1: announces the big Farmer bailout, does an interview with political saying, hey,
3:07
Speaker 1: he thinks his economy the stamp he's putting on the
3:09
Speaker 1: economy is a plus plus plus. Look, here's the good
3:14
Speaker 1: news for Republicans that are going to be on the
3:15
Speaker 1: ballot in twenty twenty six. The president's finally talking about
3:18
Speaker 1: the economy. Here's the bad news for Republicans on the
3:21
Speaker 1: ballot in twenty twenty six. He doesn't seem to accept
3:23
Speaker 1: the premise that this isn't a troubling economy. That this
3:26
Speaker 1: is and anything that people feel negative. Of course, he
3:29
Speaker 1: wants you to say, hey, blame my predecessor. You know,
3:31
Speaker 1: that's not it. I'm creating this golden age. But the
3:36
Speaker 1: fact that he had to do a bailoff for farmers
3:38
Speaker 1: is a cell phone, right, This is why do we
3:40
Speaker 1: have this? Because China's boycotting soybeans from the United States
3:46
Speaker 1: and it's just a double whamming on our farmers. This
3:50
Speaker 1: is not a Biden policy. This was Liberation Day that
3:53
Speaker 1: Donald Trump did. And I think that that's you know,
3:57
Speaker 1: it's interesting with presidents and how they try to blame,
4:02
Speaker 1: particularly first year presidents always want to keep the predecessor
4:07
Speaker 1: in the news long enough to have them still be
4:10
Speaker 1: seen as the foil if things aren't quite working out. Right.
4:13
Speaker 1: I mean, Barack Obama seemed to go almost four years
4:18
Speaker 1: convincing the public that he was dealing with this Bush
4:20
Speaker 1: economy that he inherited, and for the most part, the
4:22
Speaker 1: voters gave him that benefit of the doubt. I mean,
4:25
Speaker 1: he did the unique trick of changing the question of
4:30
Speaker 1: are you better off than you were four years ago?
4:33
Speaker 1: To are you going to be better off four years
4:34
Speaker 1: from now? He flipped the question and that met Romney
4:37
Speaker 1: race and pulled it off. But for them, and for
4:42
Speaker 1: his most of his first term, he was able to
4:44
Speaker 1: convince the public this was Bush's economy, and we had
4:47
Speaker 1: the Great Recession, and something that catastrophic is not something
4:51
Speaker 1: that happens overnight. So there was certainly a public that
4:54
Speaker 1: was believe that it was that was Bush policies, and
4:58
Speaker 1: perhaps Clinton policies Bush policies coupled together. Right, So, but
5:05
Speaker 1: Trump is is not succeeding with that. When you actually
5:09
Speaker 1: look at polling pluralities, say this is Trump's economy, say
5:12
Speaker 1: that it's on him. The costs haven't gone down, And
5:15
Speaker 1: of course, you know, Trump only has himself to blame, right,
5:18
Speaker 1: his typical bravado, this will be easy, I'll fix this
5:21
Speaker 1: right away, the Golden Age starts YadA YadA, YadA, bing
5:24
Speaker 1: bang boom. Right. Well, it ain't a boom right. That's
5:28
Speaker 1: the situation he's in. What's fascinating is is how he
5:33
Speaker 1: keeps claiming he's going to pay for this bailout of
5:36
Speaker 1: the farmers. Right. It's a twelve billion dollars in bailout money.
5:39
Speaker 1: That's he's announced. He says he's going to use the
5:41
Speaker 1: tariff money. Now he's also said he's going to use
5:44
Speaker 1: the tariff money to give relief checks for middle and
5:49
Speaker 1: lower income folks who have been hit hard by the terriffs.
5:51
Speaker 1: And then he also thinks the tariffs are going to
5:53
Speaker 1: replace the income tax. We just do a little mass
5:56
Speaker 1: reality check because this is in some ways this is
6:00
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, right, this is the developer in him. You know,
6:02
Speaker 1: he promises the world and then let somebody else finance
6:07
Speaker 1: it or pay the bill. So far, the US is
6:09
Speaker 1: collected approximately two hundred and fifty billion dollars in tariff
6:13
Speaker 1: revenue this year. Let's just say that's just a tag
6:17
Speaker 1: shive of the two point six six trillion dollars the
6:22
Speaker 1: Internal Revenue Service collects. So two hundred and fifty billion
6:28
Speaker 1: doesn't quite replace two point sixty six trillion. So if
6:34
Speaker 1: Donald Trump does plan to have tariff revenue replace income
6:39
Speaker 1: the income tax, let me just tell you the dollar
6:42
Speaker 1: store will become the five hundred dollars store. I mean,
6:46
Speaker 1: if we go to a consumption tax, which many there's
6:50
Speaker 1: always been this movement of some on the right who
6:53
Speaker 1: hate the income tax and want to repeal the constitutional
6:56
Speaker 1: amendment that allowed the income tax. You know, they push
6:59
Speaker 1: what they call a fair tax or a consumption tax.
7:02
Speaker 1: The Europeans call it a vat tax of value added tax. Literally,
7:06
Speaker 1: what it does is double, triple, quadruple the price of
7:09
Speaker 1: a common consumer good. You know, the argument goes, hey,
7:15
Speaker 1: if a rich person buys a yacht, they're going to
7:17
Speaker 1: pay an exorbitant tax, and that will be good for
7:21
Speaker 1: the coffers. But the problem is it is it is
7:25
Speaker 1: going to be lower and middle income that end up
7:27
Speaker 1: paying a bigger chunk of their income to taxes than
7:31
Speaker 1: upper income will. So it is a totally regressive tax
7:35
Speaker 1: system punishes middle and lower the middle and the lower class,
7:41
Speaker 1: and rewards and rewards the wealthy. It's interesting to me
7:47
Speaker 1: how often Trump hints at wanting to get rid of
7:50
Speaker 1: the income tax, which is ultimately it is. To me,
7:54
Speaker 1: it's sort of a very fringe thing to believe when
7:57
Speaker 1: you consider sort of how our system works. But he's
8:01
Speaker 1: trying to mainstream the idea. But again, his plan is
8:04
Speaker 1: to I think he called it once, the external revenue
8:08
Speaker 1: service will replace the internal revenue service. But guess what, folks,
8:12
Speaker 1: The American consumer would pay the taxes just like the
8:15
Speaker 1: American taxpayer pays. But there's a little bit more fairness
8:19
Speaker 1: in our tax code. It could be a little more fair,
8:21
Speaker 1: and it's not. But at least the tax code as
8:23
Speaker 1: it stands a heck of a lot more fair than
8:25
Speaker 1: doing some sort of consumption tax, which would just be
8:29
Speaker 1: a punishing and talk about exasperating income inequality. It would
8:34
Speaker 1: do so in a heartbeats. But in some ways I'm
8:40
Speaker 1: burying the lead here. The fact that Trump is talking
8:44
Speaker 1: about two things regarding his tariff policy right. One is
8:48
Speaker 1: to bail out the farmers, and then two is to
8:52
Speaker 1: use tariff income to cut a government check to anybody,
8:56
Speaker 1: as he called it, not including high income people, but
8:58
Speaker 1: a two thousand dollars check for every for every taxpayer.
9:02
Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to pass Congress. You already
9:04
Speaker 1: have some deficit hawks, and again sometimes want to be
9:09
Speaker 1: careful using the phrase deficit hawks. There are no deficit
9:12
Speaker 1: hawks in Washington. What you have is you have partisans
9:17
Speaker 1: who care about the deficit when the other parties in charge. Right,
9:20
Speaker 1: there are chunks, and that is a fact. There's a
9:23
Speaker 1: handful of Democrats and a handful of Republicans that do
9:26
Speaker 1: talk about the debt and deficit. Usually they care about
9:30
Speaker 1: it more when the other party's in charge. Yes, there's
9:34
Speaker 1: one or two, and I think on the Republican side
9:37
Speaker 1: there's enough that don't want to look like hypocrites that
9:39
Speaker 1: they're not going to be for writing these writing these checks.
9:46
Speaker 1: But again I go back. The real headline is Donald
9:48
Speaker 1: Trump admits his economy isn't working, so he's desperately trying
9:51
Speaker 1: to throw money at the problem. Right, That's what's really
9:54
Speaker 1: happening here. And if they feel like they have to
9:57
Speaker 1: go down that road, they're in big trouble. Now, let's
9:59
Speaker 1: talk about out, just very quickly, sort of how the
10:03
Speaker 1: economy plays in a campaign. There's sort of a traditional
10:07
Speaker 1: measurement here and sort of there's sort of a running
10:12
Speaker 1: theory this has gotten there's been studies among political scientists
10:16
Speaker 1: on this. This isn't just sort of sort of speculation,
10:20
Speaker 1: but basically, what the economy actually is in May June
10:26
Speaker 1: of an election year is what that economy is will
10:30
Speaker 1: be the perception of the economy that the voter thinks
10:33
Speaker 1: of going into November. The point being is that if
10:37
Speaker 1: we in a recovery in August, September, October, the voter
10:40
Speaker 1: isn't going to feel it by election day. This happened.
10:44
Speaker 1: This happened to George HW. Bush in nineteen ninety two.
10:47
Speaker 1: The economy wasn't doing well. It was starting to recover
10:49
Speaker 1: in the fall of ninety two, but by that point
10:51
Speaker 1: it was too late. Clinton had already won the argument
10:54
Speaker 1: that Bush had taken his eye off the ball in
10:57
Speaker 1: the economy, and then it was up to him to
10:59
Speaker 1: turn it around. Why did he get a quick turnaround
11:01
Speaker 1: the economy because it was already kind of turning around, right.
11:04
Speaker 1: It's like how Donald Trump inherited a healing economy from
11:09
Speaker 1: Barack Obama. So suddenly it was, but he got all
11:12
Speaker 1: the credit when we had a sort of an economy
11:15
Speaker 1: that actually started to hum in twenty seventeen until he
11:19
Speaker 1: did the tax the tax cut, which in a weird
11:23
Speaker 1: way sort of caused a lot more long term deficit
11:27
Speaker 1: issues and such. But that's the big headline out of
11:31
Speaker 1: this is that he's at least, if you're an elected
11:34
Speaker 1: Republican and Capitol Hill, you've got to be relieved they're
11:36
Speaker 1: at least trying, or at least there's an attempt to try. Now,
11:40
Speaker 1: you know, he undermines himself on his economic argument when
11:43
Speaker 1: he'll you know, he doesn't want to he calls affordability
11:46
Speaker 1: a con job, or you know, he says, yes, I
11:48
Speaker 1: know things need to go lower, but hey, that was
11:50
Speaker 1: the previous one and we're making you know, this is
11:53
Speaker 1: going to be amazing. And you know, he talks about
11:56
Speaker 1: things that aren't happening yet, all this manufacturing that he's
11:58
Speaker 1: bringing back. In theory, he's hoping to bring back some manufacturing,
12:01
Speaker 1: but as we've seen, this economy actually has been punished
12:05
Speaker 1: on the manufacturing front, more so with these tariffs. But
12:08
Speaker 1: that to me is the biggest To me, the really
12:12
Speaker 1: big headline is Donald Trump acknowledges his economy's terrible, and
12:16
Speaker 1: he's trying to throw money at the problem to try
12:18
Speaker 1: to to try to buy some call right and Frankly,
12:23
Speaker 1: I think any president in this position would be looking
12:26
Speaker 1: for some way to do this. Trump being a you know,
12:30
Speaker 1: he's sort of a non ideologic, you know, sort of
12:34
Speaker 1: his version of populism is chicken in every pot. Let
12:37
Speaker 1: me write a check, let me do this, let me,
12:39
Speaker 1: you know, you throw money today and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. Right.
12:43
Speaker 1: That is the philosophy of Donald Trump, which is why
12:45
Speaker 1: when he leaves the presidency, whoever's his successor is going
12:48
Speaker 1: to have a total and complete s show to deal
12:50
Speaker 1: with because he will not care of the situation he leaves.
12:54
Speaker 1: He will do everything he can to push any problem
12:57
Speaker 1: off on his successor, no matter who his successor is.
13:01
Speaker 1: A quick little update on Obamacare before I get to
13:04
Speaker 1: the sort of the main my main monologue topic for
13:07
Speaker 1: the day, keep an eye out on the following compromise.
13:11
Speaker 1: Punchball had this, and I thought it was an important compromise.
13:13
Speaker 1: It's a bipartisan group of House members are introducing a
13:17
Speaker 1: bill to extend the Obamacare subsidies. They would extend them
13:21
Speaker 1: for two years. They would add income limits so there'd
13:24
Speaker 1: be some sort of essentially means test of some sort,
13:28
Speaker 1: and put in some anti fraud measures, which is usually
13:30
Speaker 1: code for, you know, waste fraud and abuse. Frankly, anytime
13:35
Speaker 1: you know each party claims that they're always worried about it,
13:37
Speaker 1: I think they generally are worried about it, but they
13:40
Speaker 1: always put a higher price on what waste croad of
13:42
Speaker 1: abuse is going to deliver than it actually does. Just
13:44
Speaker 1: so you know this is true, whether it's Democrats doing
13:47
Speaker 1: it or Republicans doing it. I'm just telling you whenever
13:50
Speaker 1: you hear, oh, we're going to get what waste froed
13:52
Speaker 1: and abuse is going to count for x percent, Okay,
13:54
Speaker 1: good luck with that. You know that those are not
13:57
Speaker 1: real dollars to be counting on. But the I find
14:00
Speaker 1: this bill to be the potential starting point of a
14:04
Speaker 1: healthcare compromise. Number One. I just think the politics are
14:07
Speaker 1: so bad right now in healthcare for Republicans that they're
14:10
Speaker 1: looking for an exit ramp. This seems like a reasonable
14:12
Speaker 1: exit ramp. Again, it's bipartisan House members. The Republicans are
14:15
Speaker 1: Brian Fitzpatrick Swing district in Pennsylvania, Don Bacon who's retiring,
14:19
Speaker 1: Rob Resdahan Swing District in Pennsylvania. Nicole Maliotakis in New York,
14:24
Speaker 1: another swing district on the Democratic sidey of Jared Golan
14:27
Speaker 1: retired Golden retiring Tom Swazi Swingish district in New York,
14:31
Speaker 1: though safer under this, Don Davis in North Carolina. They're
14:35
Speaker 1: in the middle of a new Jerry Mander and then
14:37
Speaker 1: sort of the queen of the Blue Dogs these days,
14:39
Speaker 1: Marie Glusen camp Perez. So it is sort of on
14:43
Speaker 1: the conservative side, on the Democratic side, on the sort
14:45
Speaker 1: of very centrist side on the Republican side. In theory,
14:49
Speaker 1: in the pre Trump era, this is how compromises were struck.
14:52
Speaker 1: This is how you got out of this situation. I
14:56
Speaker 1: think this is chance. This is the framework threatening a
15:00
Speaker 1: discharge petition if they can't get a vote. We know
15:02
Speaker 1: where Johnson is on this. He doesn't want to. But
15:05
Speaker 1: the point is is if you told me senators sort
15:08
Speaker 1: of took up this framework as a framework, it wouldn't
15:12
Speaker 1: surprise me. Now, look, let's be realistic here. If we're
15:16
Speaker 1: going to get an extension of the Obamacare subsidies, a
15:18
Speaker 1: couple things have to happen. Number One, Trump has to
15:22
Speaker 1: endorse this in some form or another, either say won't
15:28
Speaker 1: veto it, he's not against it, you know something, And
15:31
Speaker 1: sort of there's different levels of him supporting it. He
15:34
Speaker 1: can sort of grudgingly promise he'll sign the bill into law,
15:38
Speaker 1: which is code for let Democrats carry most of the water,
15:42
Speaker 1: provide just enough Republicans to get it passed. So in
15:44
Speaker 1: the Senate that would mean you go find thirteen Republicans.
15:47
Speaker 1: In the House, I'm guessing it would be sort of,
15:51
Speaker 1: you know, two thirds of the Democratic House and one
15:54
Speaker 1: third of the Republican House. So something something that can
15:57
Speaker 1: to that. Obviously, I still think there's a chance to
15:59
Speaker 1: try just says no, extend it. Maybe he does one
16:02
Speaker 1: year or whatever, and he sort of dictates the terms
16:04
Speaker 1: of the debate. But I still think it made you know,
16:07
Speaker 1: in that sense, then maybe it will be more Republicans
16:12
Speaker 1: than Democrats. But I think where things stand now in
16:15
Speaker 1: the House, what I don't envision is a bill that
16:18
Speaker 1: passes the House with more Republicans than Democrats to extend
16:22
Speaker 1: Obamacare subsidies. That I don't quite see. But the point
16:27
Speaker 1: is pay attention to that one. It seemed to be
16:29
Speaker 1: the most reasonable compromise that's making the rounds. You know,
16:35
Speaker 1: two years sort of takes it out of the political
16:37
Speaker 1: you know, sort of does throw it back into the
16:40
Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight political stream if you will, but maybe
16:44
Speaker 1: there should be a presidential fight, if you will. But
16:48
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18:21
Speaker 1: it's sort of my way of dealing with what's going
18:23
Speaker 1: on in Texas and the primary situation. But it's more
18:29
Speaker 1: of a you know, the world of journalism. When you're
18:33
Speaker 1: a reporter, we all operate under the rule of three, right,
18:37
Speaker 1: which is three's a trent, two's interesting, But three's a trent.
18:42
Speaker 1: And I'd been stewing on an idea that it had
18:45
Speaker 1: two being interesting. And that was how Gavin Newsome and
18:50
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly both successfully used fights with Donald Trump to
18:56
Speaker 1: sort of vault themselves into the zeitgeist of democratic chatter,
19:01
Speaker 1: particularly twenty twenty eight presidential chatter, right, you know, and
19:06
Speaker 1: how it wasn't it's not being done with ideology, not
19:09
Speaker 1: being done with an issue. It's being just shown as
19:11
Speaker 1: being willing to fight Trump. Right, So Gavin Newsom has
19:15
Speaker 1: been willing to fight back at Trump re redistricting debating
19:20
Speaker 1: Ron Decantis last year. Right, he is he has not
19:23
Speaker 1: been an ideologue. I mean, if you know Gavin Newsom
19:26
Speaker 1: and you're honest about where his place in the California
19:31
Speaker 1: Democratic Party, you know he's the business friendly Democrat and
19:34
Speaker 1: always has been business friendly Democrat. When Jerry Brown was governor,
19:37
Speaker 1: who was lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom hanging out with then
19:41
Speaker 1: lieutenant Governor Rick Perry excuse me, governor Texas Governor Rick Perry,
19:46
Speaker 1: talking up, you know, admitting that sometimes California made it hard,
19:52
Speaker 1: a little bit harder to do business than Texas. I
19:54
Speaker 1: don't know those of you and have a memory that
19:57
Speaker 1: goes back that far. I know, anything pre COVID, all
20:00
Speaker 1: of our brains get a little mushy. But this was
20:02
Speaker 1: sometime in like you know, twenty eleven, twenty twelve, when
20:06
Speaker 1: Gavin was sort of the lieutenant governor with nothing to do,
20:10
Speaker 1: which most lieutenant governors have nothing to do. And he
20:13
Speaker 1: wasn't always very close with Jerry Brown, so he was
20:15
Speaker 1: kind of in no man's land and he had it
20:17
Speaker 1: just sort of make his own way. So, you know,
20:19
Speaker 1: he's not a left winger. I know, the perception of
20:23
Speaker 1: California Democratic politics is is all liberal and left wing.
20:27
Speaker 1: He really is sort of considered a business friendly Democrat.
20:30
Speaker 1: I think on social issues you could certainly call him
20:32
Speaker 1: a big liberal, but it's one of those. But it's
20:37
Speaker 1: been interesting to me how he's become essentially their early
20:42
Speaker 1: front runner for twenty twenty eight and it's not due
20:45
Speaker 1: to anything. He's no big policy proposals that he's rolled out, nothing,
20:50
Speaker 1: no big policy that he wants to run on in California.
20:52
Speaker 1: If anything, his job approval ratings them when California voters
20:55
Speaker 1: been middling at best, kind of underwater during twenty twenty four.
21:00
Speaker 1: But what really jump started him was a fight with Trump,
21:04
Speaker 1: a fight with Mega right. Take Mark Kelly uh and
21:09
Speaker 1: the and the and the video. Well, Mark Kelly had
21:13
Speaker 1: a nice little run here for the last couple of weeks.
21:16
Speaker 1: In fact, I got to read you, uh, I got
21:21
Speaker 1: to read you this, Uh, you know, he's become such
21:23
Speaker 1: a darling if you will, Uh after this fight over
21:29
Speaker 1: following you know, over not following illegal orders where Pete
21:32
Speaker 1: Hegseth sort of threatened to bring charges against him. Well,
21:37
Speaker 1: he's he's become something that we hadn't seen for you know,
21:41
Speaker 1: Kelly has this. His bio has more charisma at times
21:45
Speaker 1: than Kelly comes across. Right, And he's not alone John GLENNO.
21:49
Speaker 1: This always hung over John Glenn's head, like I've always
21:53
Speaker 1: wanted to write a book of a collection of essays
21:57
Speaker 1: on I can't believe they never became president. When you
22:02
Speaker 1: look at the resumes of some people that ran for
22:04
Speaker 1: president but never became president. Bill Bradley and John Glenn
22:06
Speaker 1: are two people I've always in Bob Dole, right, those
22:08
Speaker 1: would be the three you'd put the cover. You're like,
22:11
Speaker 1: given everything they did and accomplished in the world of
22:16
Speaker 1: in Bill Bradley's case, sports, you know, and academia versus
22:21
Speaker 1: the world of you know, a hero an American hero, astronaut,
22:28
Speaker 1: and John Glenn an American hero in the battlefield in
22:32
Speaker 1: Bob Dole. But Glenn always had this, and I think
22:38
Speaker 1: if you know, if you're going to orbit the Earth
22:40
Speaker 1: by yourself, you kind of have to be pretty good
22:43
Speaker 1: at being a loner. But that doesn't always make you
22:45
Speaker 1: the most charismatic figure. And Glenn's resume was always more
22:49
Speaker 1: charismatic than the person himself. And that's been whispered about
22:55
Speaker 1: about Mark Kelly. And you know, a lot of people
22:57
Speaker 1: know he's kind of interested, he might be interested in
22:59
Speaker 1: running for president. He was on the shortlist for Kamala
23:02
Speaker 1: Harris when she was interviewing VP candidates. But there's always
23:05
Speaker 1: been whispers of you know, he's got the astronaut personality,
23:08
Speaker 1: which means you know, when you're when you're going up
23:10
Speaker 1: and staying in space for a while, whatever it is,
23:14
Speaker 1: you just you it is. It's just it takes a
23:18
Speaker 1: different type of personality to to do that. It's not
23:21
Speaker 1: always the most outgoing personality, if you will. But boy
23:28
Speaker 1: have Pete Hegsith, you know, threatened court martial after you,
23:33
Speaker 1: and it first of all really fired up. I saw
23:36
Speaker 1: a version of Mark Kelly I hadn't seen before on television,
23:40
Speaker 1: and he's taken advantage of the moment. He did doing
23:43
Speaker 1: fundraising emails. Let me read you this one that he
23:45
Speaker 1: did for Katie Obbs, the governor of Arizona, and it
23:48
Speaker 1: begins You've been hearing a lot from me lately about
23:51
Speaker 1: the threats and attacks made against me from Donald Trump
23:53
Speaker 1: and his administration, what they represent, and why this is
23:55
Speaker 1: such uncharted territory for all of us. I can't thank
23:57
Speaker 1: you enough for all the support you've shown me, my team,
23:59
Speaker 1: and my family. But today I'm writing you to urge
24:01
Speaker 1: you to support Katie Hobbs's reelection campaign. The point is
24:04
Speaker 1: is that you know, Mark Kelly is also considered to
24:07
Speaker 1: be somewhat of a centrist. He taught he himself riges
24:10
Speaker 1: about being a former Republican. He's not, you know, he's
24:15
Speaker 1: not going to be mistaken for AOC or Bernie Sanders.
24:20
Speaker 1: But he got some juice because he he picked a
24:24
Speaker 1: fight with Donald Trump, right. It gave him some energy,
24:27
Speaker 1: It gave him juice. It allowed him to stand out
24:29
Speaker 1: in a way he hadn't been able to stand out
24:31
Speaker 1: yet among those that are pondering twenty eight. So that
24:38
Speaker 1: was what I was hanging by. I was like, Okay,
24:40
Speaker 1: this is interesting. There's two but I wasn't ready to
24:42
Speaker 1: write about it until I saw the announcement video for
24:46
Speaker 1: Jasmine Crockett. She, of course, is the Dallas congresswoman I've
24:50
Speaker 1: interviewed here. I really encourage anybody who didn't catch that
24:54
Speaker 1: interview I did with her a few months ago to
24:56
Speaker 1: go back and listen to that interview with Jasmine Crockett,
24:59
Speaker 1: because I can I tell you I went into it
25:01
Speaker 1: with one idea of who she is, and I came
25:03
Speaker 1: out of it with a totally different idea. I think
25:07
Speaker 1: people underestimate her at your own peril. I think this
25:11
Speaker 1: is somebody who might be too quick. So maybe she
25:15
Speaker 1: speaks too quick, maybe she speaks faster than she thinks sometimes,
25:18
Speaker 1: But the point is she's always thinking and she's very
25:22
Speaker 1: savvy and she doesn't make the same mistake twice, which
25:26
Speaker 1: is always interesting with with smart politicians. But her announcement
25:30
Speaker 1: video was even more It was sort of even more
25:34
Speaker 1: grounded in fight if you will, with Trump, it's just
25:39
Speaker 1: her in silence. You know that she doesn't say a word.
25:43
Speaker 1: All you do is hear every Donald Trump insult against Crockett.
25:47
Speaker 1: So it's just Donald Trump's voiceover insulting Jasmine Crockett in
25:52
Speaker 1: all sorts of ways or intellect, et cetera. How about
25:55
Speaker 1: this new one. They have their new star, Crocket. How
25:58
Speaker 1: about her, She's the new star of the Democrat Party,
26:02
Speaker 1: Jasmine Crockett. They're in big trouble, but you have this
26:06
Speaker 1: woman Crockett. She's a very low IQ person. I watched
26:10
Speaker 1: her speak the other day. She's definitely a low IQ person. Crocket.
26:15
Speaker 1: Oh man, oh man.
26:18
Speaker 2: She's a very low IQ person.
26:21
Speaker 1: And it's just first it's a stone faced Crockett and
26:24
Speaker 1: then at the end she smiles. But it's so there's
26:30
Speaker 1: my trend, right, which is are you going to run
26:34
Speaker 1: on something, are you going to run on an ideology,
26:39
Speaker 1: or are you going to run as a fighter? And
26:40
Speaker 1: right now, the fastest way to get traction in democratic
26:45
Speaker 1: politics is to be a fighter. It's more than being
26:49
Speaker 1: left or right. It really is fight versus unite. Right,
26:53
Speaker 1: there's I've said there's sort of there are multiple divides
26:55
Speaker 1: inside each party. The two biggest in the Democratic side
26:59
Speaker 1: are the agressives and the sort of centrist. That's a
27:02
Speaker 1: big one and not insignificant, and certainly one that is
27:06
Speaker 1: that could hold Democrats back from having a massive successful
27:13
Speaker 1: election Night twenty twenty six, depending on how these primaries
27:15
Speaker 1: pay out. But the problem is the primary voter wants
27:18
Speaker 1: a fighter. Now they'll take a centrist if you're a fighter.
27:24
Speaker 1: And that's the point I'm making here. I think it's
27:27
Speaker 1: fascinating to watch, particularly with Newsom and Kelly, because having
27:33
Speaker 1: the fighter sort of picking a fight with Trump avoids
27:38
Speaker 1: the progressive litmus tests, and in some ways you can
27:45
Speaker 1: you can connect with progressives on emotion rather than on substance,
27:52
Speaker 1: and you can and that look, Bill Clinton, I would argue,
27:59
Speaker 1: was able to win over the base of the party
28:02
Speaker 1: when he showed himself to be a fighter. He never
28:05
Speaker 1: changed his ideology, he never sort of veered left on ideology,
28:10
Speaker 1: you know, he was always sort of very much in
28:12
Speaker 1: the center left, but he showed he was willing to
28:15
Speaker 1: punch back and so and certainly when he took a
28:19
Speaker 1: hit with impeachment, that's when the base really finally fell
28:23
Speaker 1: in love with him, because again, he showed himself to
28:26
Speaker 1: be a fighter. So I think there's I'm not saying
28:30
Speaker 1: that this might not you know, that this might be
28:32
Speaker 1: a necessity if you want to run for office in
28:34
Speaker 1: twenty six or twenty eight, but I will lament that.
28:39
Speaker 1: You know, if I could argue that Democrats are going
28:43
Speaker 1: down the same road that Republicans have been on for
28:45
Speaker 1: the last decade, which is Republicans don't run on anything.
28:48
Speaker 1: They don't run on any big ideas. What they really
28:51
Speaker 1: run on is owning the lips, right, Like that's the
28:55
Speaker 1: cohesive messaging, which is fight back, right, it's been I've
28:59
Speaker 1: heard it from conservatives. So you got to fight back,
29:02
Speaker 1: and you know there's not enough fight. I mean, you know,
29:04
Speaker 1: in fact, it gets me to one more item. I
29:06
Speaker 1: want to get to get to you guys here in
29:08
Speaker 1: a minute. That kind of fits this sometimes where the
29:12
Speaker 1: where the left and the right aren't very self aware
29:14
Speaker 1: of their own of their own behavior sometimes. But Republicans
29:22
Speaker 1: have been running on this sort of just looking for fighters,
29:25
Speaker 1: and in some ways you can overcome certain you know,
29:30
Speaker 1: old stances, whether it's neocon stuff or it's formally democratic
29:37
Speaker 1: ideas or quote unquote woke things if you bring the
29:41
Speaker 1: fight to owning the libs right, and now you really
29:45
Speaker 1: have a democratic party that may be more animated by
29:49
Speaker 1: looking for those that are willing to quote unquote own
29:51
Speaker 1: the magas right, you know, own the right. The downside
29:57
Speaker 1: to this is you don't stand for anything, and I
30:02
Speaker 1: think there's a little more risk there for Republicans, for
30:05
Speaker 1: Democrats on that than republicans. I think there's a chunk
30:08
Speaker 1: of voters that do expect Democrats to stand for something,
30:12
Speaker 1: do expect a lot of issue papers and white papers,
30:15
Speaker 1: and there could be some disappointment in that when that's missing,
30:22
Speaker 1: And I could argue that, you know, I wish you know.
30:25
Speaker 1: Another part of my sub stack is, you know, we've
30:27
Speaker 1: got a lot of important issues we should be debating,
30:31
Speaker 1: but even on the even if we debate the right issue,
30:33
Speaker 1: we debate it the wrong way. Let me give you
30:37
Speaker 1: an example. Take take immigration. Right we fight it is
30:46
Speaker 1: kind of an eighty twenty issue as if it is
30:51
Speaker 1: xenophobia versus open borders, when really what we should be
30:58
Speaker 1: debating is what does a functional citizenship pathway look like?
31:02
Speaker 1: What do modernized worker visas look like? How do you
31:06
Speaker 1: increase strong border security in addition to having more legal immigration.
31:11
Speaker 1: These are fifty one to forty nine issues, meaning you know,
31:15
Speaker 1: the country's pretty divided on these solutions. They're not divided
31:19
Speaker 1: on the big ticket ideas, but they we really should
31:22
Speaker 1: have a debate on, Okay, how would we do this?
31:26
Speaker 1: And we're not going to have that debate public education
31:28
Speaker 1: is another one. We just us you know, school choices
31:30
Speaker 1: just shorthand for conflict. It isn't for the debate. If
31:36
Speaker 1: if you look at it as a fifty one forty
31:38
Speaker 1: nine problem, then we would be having a debate about
31:41
Speaker 1: teacher retention, funding formulas. How would we teach ai in classrooms?
31:47
Speaker 1: What is the purpose of high school in the twenty
31:49
Speaker 1: first century versus what it was in the twentieth century
31:51
Speaker 1: versus what it was in the nineteenth century. But that's
31:55
Speaker 1: not sexy, that's not viral. So it's like the only
31:58
Speaker 1: time we have a debate substance is when we have
32:00
Speaker 1: we sort of create straw men about the other side. Right,
32:04
Speaker 1: each side creates an eighty twenty straw man that doesn't
32:06
Speaker 1: really exist in the real electorate. The real electorate is divided,
32:11
Speaker 1: you know, is actually more in general agreement, but divided
32:15
Speaker 1: on the implementation of those solutions. There's general agreement that
32:19
Speaker 1: immigration is a net positive in this country. There's general
32:23
Speaker 1: agreement that there should be reasonable pathways to citizenship, but
32:28
Speaker 1: some of the details we genuinely disagree on. But we
32:32
Speaker 1: don't have those debates, So that to me is the
32:35
Speaker 1: risk here. But make no mistake we are seeing. And
32:37
Speaker 1: I think the fact is, I think you're going to
32:42
Speaker 1: have I don't think you're Look, do I think one
32:45
Speaker 1: or two Democrats are going to try to be the
32:46
Speaker 1: issue candidates? I do that's going to happen in twenty twenty.
32:49
Speaker 1: Someone always tries to play that role. Bruce Babbott was
32:52
Speaker 1: that guy in ninety two, Elizabeth Warren was that person
32:54
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty. You know, there's always a version of
32:57
Speaker 1: that candidate. They don't always do as well as they
33:01
Speaker 1: might in political science classes on that front. But I
33:05
Speaker 1: think you're going to see. You know, am I skeptical
33:10
Speaker 1: that Krockt can win that senen see? I am, But
33:12
Speaker 1: I'm not skeptical that she can win the primary if
33:15
Speaker 1: she shows, you know, especially because she's positioning herself as
33:18
Speaker 1: I'm the one that's taken the fight to him and
33:21
Speaker 1: James Tallerico is more of the hey, let can't we
33:24
Speaker 1: all a little bit of the can't we all just
33:26
Speaker 1: get along? So we're going to have an interesting fight
33:29
Speaker 1: where two people who I think both would describe themselves
33:31
Speaker 1: as progressive, but you're going to have a divide a
33:34
Speaker 1: fight versus unite And what's the attitude of the Democratic
33:38
Speaker 1: Party in going to be in the spring of twenty six.
33:43
Speaker 1: It's possible by the spring of twenty eight, when we're
33:46
Speaker 1: having the presidential primary fight that Democrats are looking for
33:50
Speaker 1: a uniter by then, because maybe they've won both Houses
33:53
Speaker 1: of Congress in the twenty six midterms. But until they
33:56
Speaker 1: have some power, I think it's pretty clear that the
34:01
Speaker 1: fighting that the litmus test for a Democratic candidate for office,
34:07
Speaker 1: at least right now, appears to be are you willing
34:10
Speaker 1: to have a fight with the Trump administration? Have you
34:12
Speaker 1: picked a fight with the Trump administration? Or will the
34:14
Speaker 1: Trump administration pick a fight with you that will be
34:17
Speaker 1: seen as an asset not a liability. One more nugget.
34:22
Speaker 1: I'm sure some of you caught Nancy Mace's abed in
34:29
Speaker 1: the New York Times. I found it hilarious because it's
34:33
Speaker 1: sort of a I can't tell you how often each
34:38
Speaker 1: there are members of each party that really believe this
34:41
Speaker 1: about the other party. Here's what she writes, Here's a
34:45
Speaker 1: hard truth Republicans don't want to hear. Nancy Pelosi was
34:48
Speaker 1: a more effective House speaker than any Republican the century.
34:50
Speaker 1: I agree with her on essentially nothing but she understood
34:53
Speaker 1: something we don't. No majority is permanent. When Democrats hold
34:55
Speaker 1: the majority, they ran through the most progressive policies they can.
34:58
Speaker 1: They delivered for the colders and elected them while they
35:00
Speaker 1: are in power. Let me stop her right there. So
35:04
Speaker 1: I promise you if you survey House Democrats who have
35:07
Speaker 1: been in Congress as long as Nancy Mays, if not longer,
35:10
Speaker 1: many of them would say the following. When Republicans hold
35:13
Speaker 1: the majority, they ran through the most conservative policies they can.
35:16
Speaker 1: They deliver for their coalition that elected them while they
35:19
Speaker 1: are in power. But Democrats don't ever do it. Ask
35:22
Speaker 1: a progressive if they think Democrats know how to use power,
35:26
Speaker 1: they will tell you that Republicans are better at using power.
35:28
Speaker 1: And here's Nancy May saying, No, Republicans suck at using power.
35:31
Speaker 1: It's the Democrats that know to use power. It's astonishing
35:35
Speaker 1: that we all live in the same country, right like
35:37
Speaker 1: that we are seeing this. The bottom line is is
35:43
Speaker 1: that you you know, if you look at at Democrats,
35:47
Speaker 1: they ended up you know, they were sort of they
35:51
Speaker 1: took a haircut, right, Joe Mansion made Joe Biden take
35:55
Speaker 1: a haircut. Right. They didn't get to jam everything through.
35:59
Speaker 1: Barack Obama's down on trying to do cap and trade
36:01
Speaker 1: after he did Obamacare. It's actually Trump and the Republicans
36:05
Speaker 1: that seem to at least keep pushing the out. They're
36:08
Speaker 1: willing to take a bad vote to fulfill a promise
36:11
Speaker 1: in a way that Democrats aren't always willing to do.
36:15
Speaker 1: And I think part of that is this version of
36:17
Speaker 1: the Republican Party won because they effectively made the argument
36:21
Speaker 1: that the previous leadership regime of the Republican Party, sort
36:24
Speaker 1: of the Bush Romney era, didn't fight hard enough, didn't
36:30
Speaker 1: try to push conservative principles compromise, and always threw the
36:34
Speaker 1: right under the bus. But I just found the op
36:37
Speaker 1: ed amusing to me because that phrase when she when
36:41
Speaker 1: she claimed when Democrats hold the majority, they ran through
36:44
Speaker 1: the most progressive policies they can. Literally half the Democratic
36:47
Speaker 1: Caucus believes when Republicans hold the majority, they ran through
36:49
Speaker 1: the most conservative policies that they can. This is the
36:55
Speaker 1: world we live in right where it's a lot easier
37:00
Speaker 1: to portray yourself or your party as a victim of
37:03
Speaker 1: some sort rather than acknowledging the actual reality of the
37:08
Speaker 1: actual situations that we're in. There's a reason results matter
37:13
Speaker 1: more than promises, just like there's a reason Morgan and
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Speaker 1: Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. For the last
37:19
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38:10
Speaker 1: unless they win, all right, let's get some questions. We'll
38:16
Speaker 1: get to a little last Chuck, then I'll get to
38:18
Speaker 1: my top five list. Ask Chuck. First question comes from
38:24
Speaker 1: Tyler and he asks, with all the ice raids and
38:27
Speaker 1: that economy for working class, do you think Trump support
38:29
Speaker 1: with Latinos will start to go down drastically? If yes,
38:32
Speaker 1: do you think states like Florida and Texas could be
38:33
Speaker 1: in play for Democrats in twenty twenty eight. Well, first, Tyler,
38:37
Speaker 1: the numbers have already softened a great deal. And I
38:40
Speaker 1: have to tell you one of the weirdest things that
38:42
Speaker 1: took place in twenty twenty four in the post election
38:45
Speaker 1: analysis was assuming that every voter that voted for Trump
38:51
Speaker 1: is suddenly a Trump voter, meaning like they're suddenly part
38:54
Speaker 1: of the Trump coalition and like a base and sort
38:59
Speaker 1: of talked about as a vag voter. And so there
39:00
Speaker 1: was this, hey, look, you know to me, you know,
39:03
Speaker 1: we used to have a rule in and I think
39:07
Speaker 1: they still do at the NBC News poll. But the
39:09
Speaker 1: rule was when you saw a trend in a demographic,
39:12
Speaker 1: don't report on a trend that you'd never seen before,
39:15
Speaker 1: you know, a dramatic spike or drop, you know, among
39:18
Speaker 1: the specific demographic group could be men, could be women,
39:21
Speaker 1: could be Latinos, could be African Americans. Cutter, don't report
39:25
Speaker 1: it until we see it. Two poles in a row. Well,
39:28
Speaker 1: I think that applies to elections, which is now there
39:33
Speaker 1: had been some softening among Latino support for Democrats for
39:38
Speaker 1: the last couple of cycles. Then we had the dramatic
39:42
Speaker 1: swing in twenty twenty four, led by what we saw
39:45
Speaker 1: in South Texas. But that was a dramatic swing. And
39:49
Speaker 1: it's arguably when you see a swing like that, you
39:52
Speaker 1: wait one more cycle before you declare that voting group
39:55
Speaker 1: a part of a semi at least Nope, no members
39:59
Speaker 1: per of any coalition, but a you know, fairly consistent
40:02
Speaker 1: member of said coalition. Well, we've only had one election
40:06
Speaker 1: with Latino's decidedly leaning Republican. But I just simply think
40:13
Speaker 1: that Latino working class voters are swing voters. They're no
40:15
Speaker 1: different than white working class swing voters and black working
40:19
Speaker 1: class swung voters. And we saw all working class voters, black, brown,
40:24
Speaker 1: or why all lean Trump and in some cases swung
40:28
Speaker 1: Trump very hard. And all of them have already swung back.
40:32
Speaker 1: And if either some of them are already voting Democratic.
40:35
Speaker 1: On the generic, some are simply expressing disapproval of Trump
40:38
Speaker 1: and are sitting and undecided. Others are sitting in independent.
40:41
Speaker 1: So we've already seen the erosion. It's pretty it's pretty
40:47
Speaker 1: dramatic if you compare it to his success of twenty four.
40:50
Speaker 1: I don't find it very dramatic. I kind of see
40:52
Speaker 1: it as expected. But it was treated his twenty twenty
40:56
Speaker 1: four success was treated as if it was permanent. And
40:59
Speaker 1: you know, one of the things I remember, not every member,
41:03
Speaker 1: not everybody who votes for president, does so enthusiastically. Right,
41:06
Speaker 1: there's a lot of people that do this. Oh A,
41:08
Speaker 1: by voting for right, you're holding your nose and you're going,
41:11
Speaker 1: all right, I guess I'm gonna go here. And it's
41:14
Speaker 1: usually more because you can't bring yourself to vote for
41:16
Speaker 1: the other person. It's less about it is it is,
41:20
Speaker 1: you know, the the Maybe it's the devil, you know,
41:25
Speaker 1: maybe it's the least of the two worst options. Whatever.
41:30
Speaker 1: What did south Park one year? I think did an
41:32
Speaker 1: election between a tird sandwich and I can't remember what
41:38
Speaker 1: it was. It was like a tird sandwich and a
41:39
Speaker 1: shit sandwich or something like that. Pardon my French. That's
41:43
Speaker 1: kind of the same thing. I kind of they had it.
41:45
Speaker 1: I think I'm getting it. I apologize for mangling, and
41:49
Speaker 1: as a proud member of gen X, I should never
41:51
Speaker 1: get any South Park references wrong. So my apologies for there.
41:53
Speaker 1: But it was it was one of their better episodes,
41:55
Speaker 1: and it was like, oh, it was a giant douche
41:57
Speaker 1: and a tird sandwich. That's what it was. It was
41:59
Speaker 1: a giant a tird sandwich. But what I love is
42:01
Speaker 1: at the end is like, you don't understand sometimes that's
42:05
Speaker 1: your choice, but you've got to make a choice because
42:07
Speaker 1: in America sometimes your only choice is a giant douche
42:10
Speaker 1: or a turd sandwich, and you got to pick one,
42:14
Speaker 1: and you got to decide which one's going to do
42:15
Speaker 1: the least amount of damage. So I think we now
42:21
Speaker 1: you're asking which states. I think it's more likely to
42:24
Speaker 1: have an impact in Texas than Florida. Florida's the Florida
42:27
Speaker 1: Latino voter is slightly different. In Central Florida, there's there's
42:32
Speaker 1: the Central Florida Latino voters more likely to behave like
42:35
Speaker 1: a South Texas Latino voter. But in South Florida it's
42:38
Speaker 1: a different it's a different Hispanic voter. A lot of
42:41
Speaker 1: Cuban Americans Venezuela and a lot of Central and South
42:43
Speaker 1: Americans who are there who came to this country sort
42:47
Speaker 1: of escaping communism in the case of the Cubans, or
42:52
Speaker 1: escaping authoritarianism in the case of the Venezuelans and the Nicaraguans,
42:58
Speaker 1: et cetera. So it's now if he botches this Venezuela
43:11
Speaker 1: build up and lets down a whole, you know, there's
43:14
Speaker 1: a scenario where he decides not decides to cut a
43:19
Speaker 1: deal with Maduro that maybe popular, maybe the thing that
43:26
Speaker 1: is the right thing to do for the Mega movement,
43:27
Speaker 1: but actually will alienate Cubans and Venezuelan's and South Florida,
43:31
Speaker 1: and that could really scramble Florida politics. But I'm not
43:35
Speaker 1: quite ready to say that that that shift's going to
43:37
Speaker 1: happen in Florida. I think it has a bigger impact
43:40
Speaker 1: in Texas and a bigger impact in Arizona also, you know,
43:45
Speaker 1: with a and even in basically everywhere except South Florida.
43:51
Speaker 1: That's probably the way to put it. Next question comes
43:54
Speaker 1: from Matt and Chesterfield, Virginia. Matt writes, Hey, check longtime
43:57
Speaker 1: fan of both you and Krystaliza. Your weekly conversations and
43:59
Speaker 1: election live shows, They've been a breath of fresh air.
44:01
Speaker 1: As a JMU grad, Hey, all right, let's go Dukes.
44:04
Speaker 1: I'm on cloud nine about crashing the playoffs. It's how
44:06
Speaker 1: you grow the sport, even if it won't impact the champion.
44:08
Speaker 1: Nd haad a case, But it's not Jamu's fault that
44:10
Speaker 1: the ACC messed up. It's tiebreaker. You got that right. Well,
44:13
Speaker 1: you and Chris have a bet on that game. Far
44:15
Speaker 1: look ahead feels like the next open VA Senate races
44:18
Speaker 1: prime to be Spamberger versus Youngkin. Ooh, that's I've heard
44:22
Speaker 1: that before. I think Youngkin runs for president before he
44:25
Speaker 1: runs for Senate next. I'm not saying you won't eventually
44:27
Speaker 1: run for Senate, but I think he wants to. He
44:29
Speaker 1: wants to take twenty twenty eight for a test ride
44:31
Speaker 1: first before he runs for Senate. If he's a Senate candidate,
44:36
Speaker 1: my guess would be not till not till twenty thirty
44:39
Speaker 1: he goes. Go Dukes and Reds. How about that? Baseball
44:42
Speaker 1: economics are bad, But like my Duke's was happy to
44:44
Speaker 1: be part of the party this year. Matt from Chestfield. Actually,
44:50
Speaker 1: Silis and I are going to have a bet because
44:52
Speaker 1: silisam married into a Texas A and M family. He
44:56
Speaker 1: is if you know the Modello ads that talks about
44:58
Speaker 1: the different fans that they're looking they're looking to reward,
45:01
Speaker 1: and he says, there's the fan that married into the
45:04
Speaker 1: married into the family, you know, married in to the fandom.
45:08
Speaker 1: Well that's Elizabeth Texas A and M. So we're gonna
45:12
Speaker 1: have a little Miami v. Texas A and M bet
45:14
Speaker 1: and then we're probably going to tailgate together in College station.
45:20
Speaker 1: We'll see if the Gighams and the Todds can get along.
45:25
Speaker 1: But in all seriousness, I'm looking forward to that. But
45:31
Speaker 1: to go back to your Senate race, far look ahead
45:33
Speaker 1: Spamberger versus Youngin. Like I said, both of them could
45:39
Speaker 1: be on it. Both of them could be on the
45:40
Speaker 1: ballot in twenty eight for a little bit of a
45:43
Speaker 1: higher office. Spamberger as the VP Youngkin running for president
45:52
Speaker 1: for the Republican nomination. Just have something to think about,
45:54
Speaker 1: all right. Next question comes from George and the Twin Cities. Hey, Chuck,
45:58
Speaker 1: thanks for the great programming lately. The Iowacentic candidate MS
46:01
Speaker 1: Esker and others have been terrific. As someone who grew
46:05
Speaker 1: up on a farm in East Central I would love
46:06
Speaker 1: to hear debate on reforms like electing the Attorney General independently,
46:09
Speaker 1: requiring timely congressional votes on confirmations and emergencies, and clarifying
46:13
Speaker 1: presidential immunity, which the founders were largely silent on. These
46:16
Speaker 1: changes could up restore balance and accountability across the branches.
46:19
Speaker 1: Thoughts I like them. On a lighter note, glad to
46:20
Speaker 1: see Miami made the playoffs. Had the head should have
46:22
Speaker 1: always mattered, and I thought Notre Dame's reaction was a
46:24
Speaker 1: bit much. George and the Twin Cities, well, look, my
46:27
Speaker 1: top five list is going to be a little bit
46:28
Speaker 1: about that, just to give people a sneak preview that, man,
46:32
Speaker 1: I'm in playoff Heaven, So I'm going to have a
46:34
Speaker 1: little bit too much football over the next couple of programs.
46:39
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to spare those that roll their eyes
46:41
Speaker 1: about it and put it at the end so that
46:44
Speaker 1: you know, hey, you don't have to listen to that
46:46
Speaker 1: part of the podcast if you're burned out on it.
46:49
Speaker 1: But I'd like to think I've turned some of you
46:50
Speaker 1: into at least semi interested college football fans. So let
46:56
Speaker 1: me tick through your reforms very quick. So obviously we
47:00
Speaker 1: don't elect that attorney it's interesting, would you like to
47:03
Speaker 1: see us an elect I think you're asking we should
47:05
Speaker 1: elect the attorney general independently. I've you know, you saw that,
47:10
Speaker 1: Sarah Skar and I I threw that ad R as
47:12
Speaker 1: sort of we got to come up maybe a federal
47:14
Speaker 1: reserve way. If the Supreme Court is going to rule
47:17
Speaker 1: in such a way that all anybody in the executive
47:20
Speaker 1: branch is an at will employee of the President of the
47:22
Speaker 1: United States, regardless of whether it's a quasi independent commission
47:26
Speaker 1: versus one that is directly appointed by the president, does
47:32
Speaker 1: sort of shake up this. I do think we either
47:35
Speaker 1: need either Congress has to be more specific on which
47:41
Speaker 1: agencies are independent and which aren't, which I do think
47:45
Speaker 1: they could designate on their own and just say, hey,
47:48
Speaker 1: they're operating under the branch, but as written into law.
47:52
Speaker 1: This is I think, and this has been sort of
47:56
Speaker 1: essentially the philosophy of John Roberts, which is thinks Congress
48:01
Speaker 1: needs to be more specific in their intent and that
48:05
Speaker 1: the executive you know, you're if you're not, then you're
48:09
Speaker 1: just making it giving the courts no choice but to
48:12
Speaker 1: give the executive branch defference. But you know, if you
48:16
Speaker 1: look at where he's always at, it's always he's essentially
48:19
Speaker 1: trying to get Congress to do its job. And on
48:23
Speaker 1: that score, you know, I think he's right. I think
48:27
Speaker 1: he's He sometimes leans on it as a crutch to
48:29
Speaker 1: sort of avoid ideological fights sometimes or try to rationalize
48:34
Speaker 1: certain ideological outcomes, but largely I don't disagree with him. Look,
48:40
Speaker 1: you got a lot of members of Congress that want
48:43
Speaker 1: legislation to be as as as ambiguous as possible so
48:47
Speaker 1: that they can they can sort of claim credit for
48:51
Speaker 1: the good stuff, but keep their hands clean if things
48:53
Speaker 1: get dirty, right and say, oh, it's how it was implemented.
48:57
Speaker 1: They don't want to take responsibility for the implementation, which
49:00
Speaker 1: is why there's such a light on specifics on how
49:02
Speaker 1: to implement these things. Which what they've done is that
49:06
Speaker 1: they've essentially just handed the executive branch more power. And
49:10
Speaker 1: that's the you know, you're saying, you know, we should
49:15
Speaker 1: have timely Congression votes and confirmations emergencies, yes, which you're
49:19
Speaker 1: basically asking, can't we just have Congress to it's job.
49:22
Speaker 1: The answer is yes. Now on presidential immunity, I disagree
49:27
Speaker 1: that the Founders were silent. I think what the Founders
49:31
Speaker 1: really believed in was a robust legislative branch that would
49:35
Speaker 1: have no problem holding the executive to account via the
49:37
Speaker 1: impeachment process. Right, that is why they wrote it into
49:41
Speaker 1: the Constitution. They saw it as an important check, you know,
49:46
Speaker 1: one of the things you have to you know that
49:48
Speaker 1: I've had pounded in my head by Founder scholars, and
49:51
Speaker 1: I think I want to pound in everybody ahead here.
49:53
Speaker 1: If they didn't write, if they wrote it, if they
49:56
Speaker 1: wrote a specific in the Constitution, they did it for
49:58
Speaker 1: a reason, and if they didn't. So take the issue
50:01
Speaker 1: of super majorities. I'm a big fan of supermajorities for
50:04
Speaker 1: judicial picks, but it's notable. And as those that have
50:09
Speaker 1: pushed back on me through the lens of sort of
50:11
Speaker 1: originalists or sort of what what Founders intent, I don't
50:15
Speaker 1: like originalism. I like sort of founders intent, which I
50:18
Speaker 1: think sort of is a way to is a way
50:20
Speaker 1: to both sort of honor the original intent and at
50:24
Speaker 1: the same time modernize it. Right, when the Founders thought
50:31
Speaker 1: supermajorities were necessary. They wrote that into the Constitution. So
50:35
Speaker 1: the fact that they didn't in certain places means they
50:37
Speaker 1: know they were you know, they thought fifty There's a
50:40
Speaker 1: reason they thought fifty plus one could work. I still,
50:44
Speaker 1: like I said, I still think when it comes to judiciary,
50:47
Speaker 1: if you if you want an impartial judiciary, then you
50:50
Speaker 1: have to raise the limits. You have to raise the
50:52
Speaker 1: vote threshold to sixty, sixty six or seventy five. You know,
50:57
Speaker 1: you know, essentially sixty votes do thirds or three quarter. Now,
51:03
Speaker 1: some argue that that would just there would be gridlock
51:05
Speaker 1: all the time. I disagree. I think you'd get a
51:07
Speaker 1: different type of nominee. I just I do. For the
51:11
Speaker 1: most part, you get those, You get those nominees. So,
51:18
Speaker 1: but ultimately, what I find interesting about your email is
51:21
Speaker 1: what you're really asking is, hey, converse, can you make
51:24
Speaker 1: the legislative branch great again? And it's really what all
51:28
Speaker 1: of us are asking. Right, they have the authority on tariffs.
51:31
Speaker 1: They just need to to remind the executive branch on
51:35
Speaker 1: that they have the authority to rescind these emergencies. They
51:39
Speaker 1: have the authority to re sind this nebulous, ambiguous aum
51:50
Speaker 1: F which allows for the use of military force to
51:53
Speaker 1: go after designated terrorists, whoever the President and the State
51:58
Speaker 1: Department define as terrorists, and they've invented this narco terrorist category,
52:05
Speaker 1: which is really not an accepted category and not quite Again,
52:08
Speaker 1: I go back to the only, the only directly narco
52:11
Speaker 1: terrorists that by by the definition that I think of
52:16
Speaker 1: terrorism as was was among the Taliban in Afghanistan who
52:20
Speaker 1: were using the poppies and heroin essentially to fund to
52:25
Speaker 1: fund their extremism. That's not what's happening here in Venezuela.
52:32
Speaker 1: But that's to me, that's the question I really took away,
52:35
Speaker 1: which goddamn Congress, do your fing job all right, Sorry, George,
52:38
Speaker 1: didn't mean to put add those flourishes in your voice.
52:42
Speaker 1: Last question before I get to my top five list
52:44
Speaker 1: is Matthew.
52:45
Speaker 2: M He said, Hey, I'm concerned about Senator Morenos Bernie
52:52
Speaker 2: marinos proposed Exclusive Citizenship Act and what it says about
52:55
Speaker 2: Magas America.
52:56
Speaker 1: First mentality is a dual citizen of Luxembourg in the
52:59
Speaker 1: US Army veteran. I find the implication implication that dual
53:02
Speaker 1: citizens are less American to be offensive than historically misguided,
53:05
Speaker 1: especially given how many Americans, including the first Lady whold
53:07
Speaker 1: dual citizenship, do you think this bill has any legal
53:10
Speaker 1: traction or political upside, particularly in diverse states like Florida
53:13
Speaker 1: and Texas. Thanks for very great work. So you know,
53:16
Speaker 1: we've always had this weird relationship with dul says, we don't.
53:19
Speaker 1: We've never I don't think the United States ever recognized
53:21
Speaker 1: dual citizens. Other countries are the ones that allow somebody
53:26
Speaker 1: to be a citizen of of their country and as
53:29
Speaker 1: citizen in the United States. So and I do think
53:34
Speaker 1: it would I don't think that I don't think that
53:39
Speaker 1: that would pass at all. I mean, because of all
53:44
Speaker 1: the examples you cite, there's quite a few members in
53:47
Speaker 1: the I think what is it isn't it isn't the
53:52
Speaker 1: current the current head of the Center for Medicare and
53:57
Speaker 1: Medicaid Services right at CMS, doctor Oz, I believe he's
54:02
Speaker 1: a dual citizen of Turkey and of the United States.
54:06
Speaker 1: So the point is is that there's quite a few
54:09
Speaker 1: people in power that have that. I don't think that's
54:14
Speaker 1: I really don't think that's going anywhere. I understand why
54:19
Speaker 1: why it offends you. I get it, but it is
54:22
Speaker 1: not like you know it is not uncommon, especially ironically,
54:25
Speaker 1: especially among some of the wealthier allies of the president.
54:29
Speaker 1: Many of them have a second citizenship somewhere for tax
54:33
Speaker 1: purposes and all sorts of things. So I doubt it,
54:40
Speaker 1: But you know, I don't want to rule anything out
54:44
Speaker 1: that suddenly gets traction. What does the how do the
54:47
Speaker 1: how does the court? I'm pretty convinced they're not going
54:51
Speaker 1: to somehow get, you know, grant Donald Trump the authority
54:55
Speaker 1: to sort of negate birthright citizenship. It's in the constitution.
55:02
Speaker 1: But if you told me they did a stricter definition
55:05
Speaker 1: of what qualified as birthright citizenship, I don't want to
55:10
Speaker 1: rule anything out. I don't think they will, but think
55:16
Speaker 1: maybe you know, it feels like I don't think anything's
55:21
Speaker 1: a given anymore, And if something like that gets redefined,
55:24
Speaker 1: then maybe something like this gets real traction. Having good
55:30
Speaker 1: life insurance is incredibly important. I know from personal experience.
55:34
Speaker 1: I was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't
55:36
Speaker 1: have any money. He didn't leave us in the best shape.
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57:13
Speaker 1: to my top five list, top five, top topest top.
57:22
Speaker 1: My top five list is going to be five bowl
57:26
Speaker 1: games that are not playoff games. The top five bowl
57:30
Speaker 1: games that if we played them as the first in
57:34
Speaker 1: the first two weeks of August next year, would be
57:39
Speaker 1: some of the most would be some of the great
57:42
Speaker 1: games that the entire college football season could give us.
57:46
Speaker 1: Because a I have a proposal that I know I'm
57:50
Speaker 1: in the minority on with some of my college football
57:53
Speaker 1: fanatic fellow fanatic friends. I've I've pitched this for a while.
57:57
Speaker 1: Some of you have heard me on my hobby horse before.
57:59
Speaker 1: But I think we're at a moment where I think
58:02
Speaker 1: there's going to be there's going to be some openness
58:05
Speaker 1: to doing something different with the non playoff connected college
58:09
Speaker 1: bowl games. And that is, you know, with the opt outs,
58:13
Speaker 1: with the transfer portal, with coaches taking other jobs, the
58:17
Speaker 1: number of teams that have opted out of these of
58:21
Speaker 1: these bowl contracts that the Big twelve, the ACEC. In fact,
58:24
Speaker 1: what is it, two teams opted out in the Big
58:26
Speaker 1: twelve and they were fined because you know the money
58:29
Speaker 1: that the bowl money is pooled, right usually you know,
58:33
Speaker 1: the team that earns the bull band gets to keep
58:35
Speaker 1: you know, a big chunk of that money. But like
58:36
Speaker 1: it's like half goes to the school and half goes
58:38
Speaker 1: to the conference. So suddenly you know, this is denying
58:41
Speaker 1: everybody money when you choose not to go to a
58:43
Speaker 1: bowl game. Notre Dame is not in a conference, although
58:46
Speaker 1: they selectively want to be a member of the ACC,
58:48
Speaker 1: when when when it's convenient, they suddenly felt as if
58:54
Speaker 1: the ACC were burning a bridge with them when they
58:57
Speaker 1: ACC promoted their football member over their football member. I
59:02
Speaker 1: don't know what Notre Dame expected there. When you humiliate
59:05
Speaker 1: the ACC by refusing by sort of treating the ACC
59:08
Speaker 1: as a minor league scheduling assistant, which is what you've
59:12
Speaker 1: done for all your other sports, don't be shocked when
59:15
Speaker 1: the ACC isn't there to have your back in football.
59:18
Speaker 1: You want the ACC to have your back in football,
59:21
Speaker 1: join full time rather than just using the ACC as
59:26
Speaker 1: a minor league scheduling system. But the point is, I
59:31
Speaker 1: think by them pulling out of a bowl in some
59:34
Speaker 1: ways they could this could It feels like this is
59:37
Speaker 1: the year the death knell of the non playoff bowles.
59:40
Speaker 1: I don't want to see these balls go away. I
59:42
Speaker 1: love the theory of these matchups. What I'd like is
59:46
Speaker 1: these matchups to mean something. Well, you know, one hope
59:49
Speaker 1: I had a few years ago is at the advent
59:51
Speaker 1: of nil that you'd actually see bonus money being paid
59:55
Speaker 1: to players to play in a bold game. Hey, if
59:57
Speaker 1: you play, here's an extra two hundred three thousand dollars.
1:00:00
Speaker 1: There's an extra fifty thousand dollars whatever, Right, if you
1:00:03
Speaker 1: agree to play in this meaningless bowl game, that that
1:00:07
Speaker 1: maybe would improve things like I don't know this, but
1:00:09
Speaker 1: I'm guessing Cam Wore got compensated for playing the first
1:00:12
Speaker 1: half of the Pop Darts bawl that you know, he
1:00:14
Speaker 1: got extra money somehow, which is why I only played
1:00:17
Speaker 1: one half. Maybe it was part of the deal. I
1:00:20
Speaker 1: don't know anything, but it certainly that's what it smells like.
1:00:23
Speaker 1: Travis Hunter did similar things. I mean, and by the way,
1:00:26
Speaker 1: it's an exhibition game. I mean, you know, the entire
1:00:30
Speaker 1: World of tennis operates on appearance fees, right, and in
1:00:34
Speaker 1: some ways it's a quote unquote appearance fee. But I
1:00:36
Speaker 1: don't think we want that. I think we want real
1:00:38
Speaker 1: competitive games. Here's what I'd like to see is you
1:00:42
Speaker 1: take all these incredible bowl matchups that we have and
1:00:46
Speaker 1: instead of having meaningless games that we that we yes,
1:00:50
Speaker 1: it's nice to have on a Tuesday afternoon in the
1:00:53
Speaker 1: week between Christmas and the years, because it's nice to
1:00:56
Speaker 1: have something on the air. Don't get me wrong, I
1:00:58
Speaker 1: will miss that one and it's gone. Maybe we can
1:01:02
Speaker 1: move the FCF playoffs to the middle of the week
1:01:06
Speaker 1: and we can all start getting into South Dakota State.
1:01:08
Speaker 1: But I digress. I'd like to see essentially use the
1:01:13
Speaker 1: ball matchups that you have, but you'll play the following year. Now.
1:01:17
Speaker 1: I know I've pitched this around to various folks, and
1:01:21
Speaker 1: the pushback I've gotten is, well, what about the reward
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Speaker 1: for a good season? Well, in this case, the playoff
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Speaker 1: is the reward, and if you don't make the playoff,
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Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like you had a good season. Well,
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Speaker 1: the players that earn the good season won't be there
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Speaker 1: to play. Well, a lot of them opt out anyway.
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Speaker 1: So in the hot light of that, here are the
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Speaker 1: top five incredible games that would start in my By
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Speaker 1: the way, if you earn a bull bid, then you
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Speaker 1: get an extra thirteenth game and you get thirteen games
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Speaker 1: to deliver on your resume for the playoff committee rather
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Speaker 1: than twelve, which having an extra win could be a
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Speaker 1: big deal. Having an extra loss could be diluted. So
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Speaker 1: I just think that there's and again, it'd be great
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Speaker 1: if people showed up in Frisco, Texas in August. By
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Speaker 1: the way, school hasn't started in a lot of the country.
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Speaker 1: You could still have family trips, you could have more
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Speaker 1: places hosting outdoor bowl games across the country rather just
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Speaker 1: in the South or the Sunbelt. So, without further to doo,
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Speaker 1: my top five games that we'd all be looking forward
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Speaker 1: to in week zeros in the first. And by the way,
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Speaker 1: college football would own the month of August. It would
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Speaker 1: be theirs right now, they own Labor Day weekend. That's good,
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Speaker 1: own the entire month of August. Nobody will care about
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Speaker 1: NFL preseason. You guys will step on all of that.
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Speaker 1: Baseball's in a weird lull in that moment in time
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Speaker 1: because of you know, before the Pennant Race heats up
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Speaker 1: in September. I think it would be good for the sport.
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Speaker 1: And look at these matchups. Okay, Number one, how would
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Speaker 1: you like for an Opening week Bowl game in the
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Speaker 1: cheese at Citrus Bowl between the Texas Longhorns and the
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Speaker 1: Michigan Wolverines Arch Manning and Bryce Underwood. Do we really
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Speaker 1: think we're going to get the best versions of Arch
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Speaker 1: Manning and Bryce Underwood in this matchup when they play?
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Speaker 1: How many of the teams or are we going to
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Speaker 1: have people that really care about winning this game come
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Speaker 1: August of next year? So that's number one? What a game?
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Speaker 1: What a terrific game? All right? Number two on my
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Speaker 1: list to me, that would be the among the most watchable.
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Speaker 1: This is a fun one and it's because it's my
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Speaker 1: way of it's what I call the Smart Bowl. It's
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Speaker 1: what is going to be the pop Tarts Bowl this year,
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Speaker 1: which should be BYU and Notre Dame, which, by the way,
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Speaker 1: what an amazing Week one game that would be or
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Speaker 1: Week zero game b YU and Notre Dame in the
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Speaker 1: pop Tarts Preseason Bowl. Right, it's a game that counts.
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Speaker 1: You get all the pop Tart bs that you can
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Speaker 1: get your that your heart desires, and you'd get this
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Speaker 1: great matchup of the Mormons and the Catholics. Okay, we
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Speaker 1: could call it, you know, the super Holy War, right?
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Speaker 1: I know Utah and BYU already has the Holy War. Sorry, Lauren,
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Speaker 1: I don't want to steal the great rivalry name there,
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Speaker 1: but you could have called it the Crusades. I don't
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Speaker 1: know if I've offended somebody. I wasn't intending to offend
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Speaker 1: on that. But what a much better game going into
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Speaker 1: the season. Now, let me give you my number three.
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Speaker 1: How about a little Penn State, Clemson and Yankee Stadium.
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Speaker 1: How cool would that be in August rather than some
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Speaker 1: frigid game that nobody cares about with the interim coach
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Speaker 1: at Penn State. Right, But instead it's the debut of
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Speaker 1: Matt Campbell's Penn State Nitney Lyons playing Dabo Sweeney on
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Speaker 1: the hot seat and Clemson that's really into interesting Unfortunately
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Speaker 1: not an interesting bowl game. Let's see. So there's three
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Speaker 1: number four on my list at this point, I'm going
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Speaker 1: to go with Arizona State and Duke. You'd have the
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Speaker 1: party crashers from two years ago versus the near party crashers, right,
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Speaker 1: Arizona State wins, the Big twelve gets into the tournament,
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Speaker 1: Duke wins. The ACC tried to talk its way into
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Speaker 1: the tournament, but this would be an El Paso that
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Speaker 1: one of my favorite bowl nicknames that Tony the Tiger
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Speaker 1: Sun Bowl. Give me some Arizona State and Duke then
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Speaker 1: versus whatever middling game that no one's going to care
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Speaker 1: about this year other than the fine folks that go
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Speaker 1: go to the game in El Paso. And then fifth
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Speaker 1: on my list, number five on my list is simply
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Speaker 1: because I think it would become a super popular bowl
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Speaker 1: game in the preseason and a much more desirable bowl
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Speaker 1: to make, and that is the shared in Hawaii Bowl
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Speaker 1: between Cal and Hawaii. It's probably going to be the
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Speaker 1: one of the more watchable bowl games in this exhibition
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Speaker 1: season that we're about to embark on. But imagine this
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Speaker 1: is week zero, I'd be a little nervous with Cal
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Speaker 1: as a member of the ACC, Tommy Changs putting together
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Speaker 1: bringing trying to make Hawaii football great again. I still
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Speaker 1: I have a memory of their incredible run that got
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Speaker 1: into the Sugar Bowl one year where they were just
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Speaker 1: out playing out of their minds and such an exciting
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Speaker 1: team to play. There was nothing like that run and
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Speaker 1: gun team of Hawaii when your midnight nothing else is
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Speaker 1: on and you're watching them win a game sixty five
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Speaker 1: sixty four. Right. The point is all five of those
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Speaker 1: Bowl games I told you nobody's going to give a
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Speaker 1: darn about over the next four weeks. Everybody would be
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Speaker 1: glued to any of those games if they were being
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Speaker 1: played in the first two weeks of August week thirteen. Anyway,
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Speaker 1: Hey man, I'm just here to solve problems. That's what
1:07:00
Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast is about. We're just trying to figure
1:07:02
Speaker 1: out how can we solve problems? So, how do we
1:07:04
Speaker 1: solve polarization? How do we solve the bold mess? All
1:07:09
Speaker 1: right with that, I'll see you in twenty four hours.
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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, and until we upload again.