Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Bull-Run Over?❌Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo

Transcript

Bull-Run Over?❌Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Is the crypto bull run over? Has the cycle finally topped? Today?
0:03
Speaker 1: We'll break it down for you. It's going to be
0:05
Speaker 1: a good one. Let's just jump right into it. I
0:07
Speaker 1: do want to start the show with a clip that's
0:10
Speaker 1: going to get into this around Jim Kramer declaring that
0:13
Speaker 1: we have an alternate stock season coming.
0:16
Speaker 2: Take a look.
0:17
Speaker 1: What would it take to make people start.
0:18
Speaker 3: Focusing on all the other stocks in what I call
0:21
Speaker 3: the real economy? Well, today we found out you need
0:24
Speaker 3: to see a big tech company screw.
0:27
Speaker 1: Up and then get shorter. I'm talking about just Denihaling.
0:32
Speaker 3: I'm talking about Meta Management committed to a level of
0:35
Speaker 3: capital spending that far outstrip what anyone saw coming to
0:39
Speaker 3: an amount that I mean, frankly seemed improving, not downright reckless.
0:43
Speaker 3: MetaStock did indeed get evicerated.
0:45
Speaker 1: He's now in the year of living dangerously.
0:48
Speaker 2: That was an entertaining clip by Kramer. Jim.
0:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you guys haven't checked out Evan go over
0:54
Speaker 1: to his YouTube channel right there, mister evan Aldo on
0:58
Speaker 1: YouTube at Evan Aldo. Well, I'm afraid this bull run
1:02
Speaker 1: might be over already one day ago. Man, you what
1:06
Speaker 1: are you doing here? You're putting out you're manifesting here
1:08
Speaker 1: is this bad news for me?
1:10
Speaker 2: So it's wild what I'm about to say.
1:14
Speaker 4: But I think that ethereum, I'm all, it's gonna perform
1:17
Speaker 4: Bitcoin and do well into twenty twenty six. But I
1:20
Speaker 4: do think the S and P five hundred may outperform
1:23
Speaker 4: Bitcoin for at least the first half of twenty twenty six,
1:26
Speaker 4: for like a general kind of situation. But I do
1:29
Speaker 4: think the it's outperformed Bitcoin, you know, going off of
1:32
Speaker 4: what Kramer said. I don't know if it's agreeing or
1:34
Speaker 4: disagree with him, whatever, but you know you're going off
1:37
Speaker 4: of Since July, the S and P five hundred has
1:40
Speaker 4: outperformed Bitcoin, and I think that, you know, if you
1:43
Speaker 4: look at twenty one, it outperformed from maya twenty one
1:47
Speaker 4: later on or even March. At twenty one, smp I
1:49
Speaker 4: have five hundred performed Bitcoin. So it could be like
1:52
Speaker 4: that into like mid twenty twenty six. But the bright
1:56
Speaker 4: side of this is I do think if you go
1:58
Speaker 4: into the bear market, it won't be as bad as
2:00
Speaker 4: previous ones.
2:01
Speaker 1: I am so not the fifty percent corrections that we've
2:05
Speaker 1: seen in the past. All Right, we're going to break
2:08
Speaker 1: down Bitcoin in a second. I want to show you
2:09
Speaker 1: a couple of other things here. One is this may
2:13
Speaker 1: be another indicator for our market top and that of course,
2:16
Speaker 1: is that the bulls are actually outperforming the insiders here,
2:21
Speaker 1: So bulls out performing insiders. This could flare into what
2:25
Speaker 1: many people would look at is the cycles that have
2:28
Speaker 1: been done. I just did a podcast with a cycle
2:31
Speaker 1: analyst that's one of the global data trackers out there,
2:36
Speaker 1: and I won't tell you what he said, but there
2:39
Speaker 1: are some big trends sliding in that Bitcoin may have
2:42
Speaker 1: already topped. Do you think that we are at that
2:45
Speaker 1: point right now based on what you're seeing coming out
2:48
Speaker 1: of the FED the last time?
2:49
Speaker 4: Let me show you some charts here that will explain
2:52
Speaker 4: a few things. So the last time that they cut
2:54
Speaker 4: rates or excuse me, that they ended QT was right
2:58
Speaker 4: around here you see this line and July of twenty nineteen,
3:03
Speaker 4: and then you did see a fall down into pandemic lows.
3:08
Speaker 4: So that situation, if you do were to repeat that,
3:11
Speaker 4: we would come down generally. Now what's on the bright
3:16
Speaker 4: side of this, though, is I don't think it's going
3:18
Speaker 4: to be this catastrophic going down to forty one k
3:20
Speaker 4: this would be absolute bottom, but I think you know
3:23
Speaker 4: it's going to be not as bad, especially with institutional
3:26
Speaker 4: stuff and all that. Like, I would think more of
3:28
Speaker 4: like typically what we've been seeing lately instead of fifty
3:32
Speaker 4: percent corrections is like thirty percent. So my main guess
3:36
Speaker 4: here is more of like thirty percent. You can go lower,
3:39
Speaker 4: but I think Bitcoin maybe kind of sideways bearish for
3:42
Speaker 4: some months since like quarter one of twenty twenty six,
3:46
Speaker 4: to get all the bearers excited, but at the same
3:49
Speaker 4: time the last time here when you ended QT, eth
3:52
Speaker 4: bottomed out against Bitcoin shortly after and you had kind
3:55
Speaker 4: of a face melting rally against Bitcoin for Ethan. The
3:59
Speaker 4: thing to realized too is this whole area while eth
4:02
Speaker 4: outperformed Bitcoin, is all the way into like pandemic pandemic drop.
4:07
Speaker 4: Everything went down while eth still outperformed bitcoins. So that's
4:10
Speaker 4: an important thing to realize. So you could still see
4:13
Speaker 4: some situation like this even if we do enter bear
4:16
Speaker 4: market into twenty twenty six, eth outperforming bitcoins. I think
4:20
Speaker 4: that's important to realize too. The last thing I'll show
4:23
Speaker 4: you real quick on others versus Bitcoin others is everything
4:25
Speaker 4: outside the top ten of market cap you hit this
4:28
Speaker 4: major area against bitcoin. This is where they ended QT
4:32
Speaker 4: in twenty nineteen, came down a little bit farther. So
4:34
Speaker 4: maybe we come down a little bit farther, maybe this
4:36
Speaker 4: area you know right here, and then you hit this
4:40
Speaker 4: area I don't know, a month, December first or something
4:42
Speaker 4: that's when it ends or end of year. And then
4:44
Speaker 4: you have while everyone is in disbelief, everyone is thrown
4:48
Speaker 4: into towel on halts. Then you have big all start
4:52
Speaker 4: to others start to have perform Bitcoin in a bear market,
4:55
Speaker 4: mind you, similar to twenty nineteen, especially with a more
4:57
Speaker 4: lenient fed share probably coming in and all these type
5:00
Speaker 4: of situations. So that's a big thing. I just want
5:03
Speaker 4: to show you real quick s and P five hundred.
5:04
Speaker 4: This is the thing I was talking about. April twenty one.
5:07
Speaker 4: It bottom out here. We have not made a new
5:11
Speaker 4: haul time high on bitcoin. SP five hundred is uperform
5:14
Speaker 4: bitcoin since July. If it's like that, probably a lesser area.
5:17
Speaker 4: See this was four hundred, well less than three hundred.
5:20
Speaker 4: If it's like this, maybe two hundred into middle of
5:24
Speaker 4: next year. So you know, I wouldn't compare bitcoin too
5:28
Speaker 4: much against dollars. At this point, you're at three percent inflation,
5:31
Speaker 4: that's probably never going back to two percent. Let's to see,
5:34
Speaker 4: you know, your next recession that's years away. Probably I
5:37
Speaker 4: would compare it more against the S and P five
5:39
Speaker 4: hundred things of that nature.
5:40
Speaker 1: Right now if we do get another rate cut, because
5:43
Speaker 1: obviously pal came out much more hawkish for December. Let
5:48
Speaker 1: me play this clip from Morgan Stanley and then we'll
5:50
Speaker 1: kind of chat after.
5:51
Speaker 2: Take a look.
5:52
Speaker 5: What the biggest risk in my opinion is FED cuts aggressively.
5:56
Speaker 5: Fiscal policy coming in with a lot of liquidity, and
5:59
Speaker 5: you build up this bubble faster. So if the Fed
6:02
Speaker 5: were to actually not cut raids this quickly, I think
6:05
Speaker 5: that would be good for the duration of the bull market.
6:09
Speaker 1: You don't think cuts are necessary at.
6:11
Speaker 5: This point, No, I think too much liquidity is going
6:14
Speaker 5: to inflate the bottle bubble more quickly.
6:17
Speaker 6: That is the sense when you have money slashing around
6:20
Speaker 6: that does make people don't worry.
6:23
Speaker 1: Meme stocks maybe part of that correct.
6:25
Speaker 5: And we know what happened in twenty twenty one. They
6:28
Speaker 5: went up too quickly and then the Fed change policy
6:31
Speaker 5: and they went down a lot. So that's that's the
6:34
Speaker 5: biggest risk. But what's important Becky is that's consistent in
6:39
Speaker 5: the later stages of bull market.
6:41
Speaker 1: Later stages of a bull market. So many people still
6:44
Speaker 1: pointing that bitcoin could have one more run end of October,
6:49
Speaker 1: which is today as we're recording this, Bitcoin is currently
6:52
Speaker 1: tracking at one oh nine to one ten. What do
6:55
Speaker 1: you think the clothes is today on bitcoin?
6:58
Speaker 4: I do, I am, I do think November is possible
7:01
Speaker 4: if we look at our chart here for you know,
7:03
Speaker 4: potentially what we could do, you know, I don't know
7:06
Speaker 4: the next few hours or something. It does look kind
7:08
Speaker 4: of bullish at least in the short term as long
7:11
Speaker 4: as we hold kind of one oh eight. You're bouncing around. Man,
7:14
Speaker 4: it's a little tricky here, but you really want to
7:16
Speaker 4: hold one awight, and I think if you do so,
7:19
Speaker 4: then you could potentially get some The two day doesn't
7:24
Speaker 4: look the best, but the daily maybe a trigger reay
7:26
Speaker 4: forms here. You get a bolish November into the end
7:30
Speaker 4: of the month, maybe even back to one twenty four.
7:33
Speaker 4: And if you can break above that old all time high,
7:35
Speaker 4: then you're talking about new all time highs by the
7:38
Speaker 4: end of November. But I have to be you know,
7:41
Speaker 4: objective here. Your higher time frames keep getting a little
7:45
Speaker 4: bit worse here. You get a red hike and ashy
7:47
Speaker 4: candle on your three week your money flows looking like
7:50
Speaker 4: it's about to start curving down. Your monthly money flow
7:53
Speaker 4: has been curving down. You get a bare div there.
7:56
Speaker 4: You got to wick above it, but you're still below
7:58
Speaker 4: that area. So I would say, yeah, the thing here
8:00
Speaker 4: is we need to make a new all time high
8:03
Speaker 4: in November. We really need to see strength in November
8:06
Speaker 4: to bring this forward. And if we lose one to
8:08
Speaker 4: weight here then I'm afraid, you know, you're not going
8:11
Speaker 4: to be sideways forever. If we lose one to weight,
8:13
Speaker 4: you're probably going to break down to a technical target
8:16
Speaker 4: around ninety five k right here. So you know that's
8:20
Speaker 4: unfortunately what I think we'll see sometime early next year
8:25
Speaker 4: quarter one ninety five, or potentially that full thirty percent
8:28
Speaker 4: correction down somewhere in the eighties.
8:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I think the key here is this is
8:32
Speaker 1: where are we right now in this next few months.
8:35
Speaker 1: This is the most critical time and like what the
8:38
Speaker 1: analyst was talking about, this could be it's very indicative
8:42
Speaker 1: of these late cycle scenarios that are playing out. And
8:45
Speaker 1: if you do compare this to broader cyclical comparisons including
8:50
Speaker 1: the M two looking at global liquidity. The potential here
8:54
Speaker 1: is pretty interesting if the FED cuts, and that's still
8:57
Speaker 1: the question mark is if December comes in with a
8:59
Speaker 1: cut leading in Right now, as of yesterday, I think
9:02
Speaker 1: I was looking at a polymarket that said it was
9:04
Speaker 1: still leaning toward kind of a neutral position as being
9:08
Speaker 1: the winner. Let's chimp over to a ethereum because devs
9:11
Speaker 1: are now targeting the Fusaka upgrade. Now, you guys remember
9:15
Speaker 1: Pectra was the last time that we saw a big
9:18
Speaker 1: run up, and this kind of is correlating with your
9:21
Speaker 1: ETH chart of when ETH was running in the in
9:25
Speaker 1: the bear market. Now we're of course getting the Fusaka upgrade.
9:29
Speaker 1: This is the one that's been promised for quite some time.
9:32
Speaker 1: Other good things on ETH is you've got coinbase earnings
9:36
Speaker 1: absolutely killing it right there, which is why Coinbase we
9:39
Speaker 1: saw performing quite well. Twenty two percent profit wise in
9:44
Speaker 1: terms of volume on ethereum, nine percent on XRP, twenty
9:49
Speaker 1: four percent on Bitcoin. And of course you've got to
9:54
Speaker 1: look at this right here. ETH holdings were increased by
9:58
Speaker 1: coinbase by one hundred million. That's pretty significant. I was
10:02
Speaker 1: if you look at the chart right there. Let me
10:04
Speaker 1: kind of bring that up one hundred million right there?
10:06
Speaker 1: Only three hundred million in bitcoin. So are we seeing
10:09
Speaker 1: a rotation into ethereum? As ethereum could be nearing a
10:14
Speaker 1: market run, would this be the scenario where Eth would
10:18
Speaker 1: lead the all coin season?
10:19
Speaker 4: If you do have an all coin season, I think
10:21
Speaker 4: it would be more similar to twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen.
10:24
Speaker 4: So theoretically Bitcoin could have already peeked out while you
10:26
Speaker 4: see Eth make a new all time high, let's look
10:30
Speaker 4: at it in potentially next month. Now, the big thing
10:33
Speaker 4: we want to do very important area. Holding thirty seven
10:37
Speaker 4: I think is very very crucial. Just such a huge area.
10:39
Speaker 4: I mean, if you were to at this point you've
10:41
Speaker 4: tested it like four times, this will be the fourth.
10:43
Speaker 4: This is the fourth time. I mean, if you lose that,
10:45
Speaker 4: then you're probably going down the let's see thirty one hundred.
10:48
Speaker 4: But if you could hold this rally forward a lot
10:50
Speaker 4: of potential, especially with NFQT. Maybe some people like what
10:55
Speaker 4: they were saying, Maybe some people want to FOMO into
10:57
Speaker 4: things that are a little bit riskier, but I thinks
10:59
Speaker 4: they are a little at risk here. Potentially a Beolvember
11:02
Speaker 4: five thousand, new all time high. If you can continue
11:05
Speaker 4: into the end of the year, there's potential for fifty
11:08
Speaker 4: eight hundred. I think at this point, I think the
11:12
Speaker 4: idea of seventy three hundred is pretty unlikely. I'd give
11:15
Speaker 4: it that prey under a twenty percent chance now, but
11:18
Speaker 4: fifty eight hundred is still doable. The thing that I'm
11:20
Speaker 4: a little bit afraid of that I'm talking about, you
11:23
Speaker 4: got to wave towards the bottom here on your three
11:26
Speaker 4: week The same wave kind of marked the end right here.
11:29
Speaker 2: You see in your three week in December twenty one.
11:31
Speaker 4: If you find a chart with even more data, it's
11:33
Speaker 4: January of twenty eighteen that marked kind of the top
11:36
Speaker 4: there as well. So if this confirms sixteen days to confirm,
11:41
Speaker 4: so assuming we don't, you know, show some strength within
11:43
Speaker 4: sixteen days, then I do think it is more bearish
11:48
Speaker 4: short term. You got some you know, trigger wave right
11:50
Speaker 4: here last one. It's kind of a Scalper's day traders
11:53
Speaker 4: mark just long every time you hit this area. It's
11:55
Speaker 4: you know, some good odds here, and I think this
11:57
Speaker 4: may work out. Something like this could be possible into
12:00
Speaker 4: the next week. Forty two hundred is doable if we
12:03
Speaker 4: play out like that. So there's an argument to be made,
12:05
Speaker 4: definitely an argument to be made for a bullish November.
12:08
Speaker 1: Here, bullish November possibly lining up. This would be kind
12:12
Speaker 1: of outside the traditional bitcoin cycle for your cycle, but
12:17
Speaker 1: it does, you know, kind of stretch out a little bit,
12:19
Speaker 1: even though it is still Q four, which is typically
12:22
Speaker 1: where those tops come in. Let me go to another
12:26
Speaker 1: clip here. This is Brian Armstrong talking about the earnings
12:29
Speaker 1: that they just had and he kind of pulled a
12:32
Speaker 1: little funny thing on Polymarke and take a look.
12:37
Speaker 7: I was a little distracted because I was tracking the
12:39
Speaker 7: prediction market about what coinbase will say on their next
12:41
Speaker 7: earnings call, and I just want to, you know, add
12:45
Speaker 7: here the words bitcoin, ethereum, blockchain, staking, and web three
12:49
Speaker 7: to make sure we get.
12:50
Speaker 2: Those in before the end of the call.
12:54
Speaker 4: Oh oh, that is I guarantee you, he told his friend.
13:00
Speaker 4: And this is complete its area here. We have our
13:04
Speaker 4: friends on this on poly market and I'll see the stuff.
13:07
Speaker 4: But then again, if you're doing that, then maybe you
13:09
Speaker 4: wouldn't admit to it, you know what I mean.
13:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, there you go. Man. This is the problem
13:15
Speaker 1: with prediction markets is you get somebody that has that
13:17
Speaker 1: kind of power, you know, for something like that. And
13:20
Speaker 1: now you're getting into the whole Yeah, now you're getting
13:23
Speaker 1: into the whole exactly legal gray area, and you get
13:26
Speaker 1: into the whole situation with what we've seen in the
13:29
Speaker 1: sports arena where it's the you know, the over unders,
13:32
Speaker 1: which is how which is what's happening in basketball.
13:34
Speaker 4: So you saw the super Bowl, the guy the bet
13:37
Speaker 4: the guy bet that there was someone whould run on
13:39
Speaker 4: the field in the Super Bowl and did it himself.
13:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course, yeah, of course, here we go. Guys.
13:46
Speaker 1: Speaking of poly Market, you got to look at poly
13:49
Speaker 1: Market and Polygonic. Course, poly Market continues to see movement
13:53
Speaker 1: right here almost all time high, back to the point
13:57
Speaker 1: of where we had elections, which is really the last
13:59
Speaker 1: time that we saw the explosion on bats coming in.
14:02
Speaker 1: So when you look at Polygon, which again should be
14:07
Speaker 1: moving with all of this activity, you would think, does
14:11
Speaker 1: the token show any life on the charts?
14:13
Speaker 2: Heaven, So let's take a look at Polygon.
14:15
Speaker 4: It's definitely been a depressor in recent you know, for
14:20
Speaker 4: a long time now, all this year, and to be
14:24
Speaker 4: honest with you, I mean we need to hold where
14:25
Speaker 4: we are right now. You got to hold eighteen cents.
14:28
Speaker 4: To be completely frank, it doesn't look the best. I mean,
14:30
Speaker 4: I don't like the two day here. I do think
14:32
Speaker 4: it may drop down farther. However, if you can hold
14:36
Speaker 4: where we are right now, you may be seeing some strength.
14:39
Speaker 4: I mean, I think at this point the main chart
14:41
Speaker 4: you want to probably want to look at is polygon
14:43
Speaker 4: versus bigcoin here, and it's hitting a big point. So
14:48
Speaker 4: if you can kind of hold where we are right now,
14:50
Speaker 4: I mean I personally am a little afraid. I do
14:53
Speaker 4: still have a small position in this was a medium
14:55
Speaker 4: sized position, now a small position because of how bad
14:57
Speaker 4: it's done. But you know, I want to say it
15:01
Speaker 4: should do well, but it's the charts are currently aren't
15:05
Speaker 4: the best.
15:05
Speaker 2: I don't know if I would buy right now.
15:07
Speaker 1: All right, well there you go, guys. A polygon not
15:10
Speaker 1: a buy. Let's get into Solana. Before I do that,
15:12
Speaker 1: I want to play a clip for you because this
15:14
Speaker 1: was a pretty big deal.
15:15
Speaker 2: Take a look.
15:20
Speaker 8: Is that mind blowing?
15:22
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's very mind blowing. A staking protocol is now
15:25
Speaker 6: listed on Wall Street.
15:27
Speaker 8: It's crazy and they're eating it up, and the numbers
15:30
Speaker 8: looking good.
15:31
Speaker 6: Solana launched in twenty twenty two days before everything crashed,
15:35
Speaker 6: before Black Thursday. Yeah, great time to launch. Hey, now
15:39
Speaker 6: you've got to ETF now, Yeah, you know, we've come
15:42
Speaker 6: to a point where Solana does more transactions that every
15:45
Speaker 6: major layer one combined, sometimes more revenue than all of
15:48
Speaker 6: them combined, which is I think a pretty astounding metric.
15:51
Speaker 8: I was talking to a friend just at the Nvidia
15:53
Speaker 8: conference and Video is kind of like a Darling right now,
15:56
Speaker 8: five trillion dollar market cap. But yeah, they were misunderstood
15:58
Speaker 8: for twenty years. I think you guys are the Ennvidia
16:01
Speaker 8: of crypto infrastructure because you're engineering the same kind of
16:05
Speaker 8: discipline and you're enabling accelerating change.
16:09
Speaker 1: That's kind of weird. Misunderstood in Video, I think, you know,
16:12
Speaker 1: they just hadn't found their groove yet. They were a
16:14
Speaker 1: gaming company, you know, so they were understood. They just
16:17
Speaker 1: figured out this was the better route for GPUs, which
16:21
Speaker 1: is kind of what Solana has done, the better route
16:23
Speaker 1: for revenue, which obviously staking protocol going on to the
16:27
Speaker 1: New York Stock Exchange, you know, to totally's point kind
16:30
Speaker 1: of bizarre. Right, So where is Solana right now? Because
16:34
Speaker 1: it's well under two hundred bucks, which was not the
16:37
Speaker 1: pick for the end of October. What is it looking
16:40
Speaker 1: like for the end of November.
16:42
Speaker 4: Let's take a look here at Solana. And you know,
16:44
Speaker 4: I think the big point is the big Yeah, you
16:46
Speaker 4: want to hold one eighty seven. I mean we're at
16:48
Speaker 4: one eighty four right now. You want to break back
16:51
Speaker 4: above that. I don't see any reason to really say
16:54
Speaker 4: that you can't do that, that you won't do that.
16:55
Speaker 4: I mean your six hour looks pretty good. I mean
16:58
Speaker 4: it's a weird kind of market. I mean, you may
17:00
Speaker 4: higher lows is good in the same place, So theoretically
17:03
Speaker 4: you should be able to jump higher. And if you
17:06
Speaker 4: do see Bolvember, you know, then I don't see any
17:09
Speaker 4: reasona believe you can't jump up to like two forty
17:12
Speaker 4: or even to sixty if things get really really exciting.
17:16
Speaker 4: But you know, we got to be objective as well
17:18
Speaker 4: these high timeframes. I mean, this three week looks pretty
17:21
Speaker 4: atrocious right here, similar to kind of how it looked
17:24
Speaker 4: on you know, Ethereum. And I mean if you compare this,
17:27
Speaker 4: I want to be more optimistic on Solana, But if
17:29
Speaker 4: you compare this, a lot of alts in you know,
17:31
Speaker 4: twenty twenty one, they made like slightly higher highs than
17:34
Speaker 4: their you know, twenty eighteen highs and then you know
17:37
Speaker 4: that was eight for that cycle unfortunately. But I do
17:41
Speaker 4: think Solana is still going to be here, you know,
17:43
Speaker 4: next cycle. But yeah, I mean, short term doesn't look
17:46
Speaker 4: the best right now. I'm trying to find a more
17:48
Speaker 4: optimistic path to tell you, but ugh, man, I think
17:52
Speaker 4: if we just got to really hold this area, I
17:54
Speaker 4: think the next week will really tell you the direction
17:57
Speaker 4: of this market.
17:58
Speaker 1: But I'm crazy, and yeah, I.
18:00
Speaker 4: Just wanted to show you Solana Bitcoin real quick. And
18:04
Speaker 4: you know, you still you're still generally have outperformed you know,
18:07
Speaker 4: Bitcoin for the last few years here and then, so
18:09
Speaker 4: if you can make the low here, I do think
18:11
Speaker 4: there is some hope for Solona versus Bitcoin as well.
18:14
Speaker 4: But I want to just yeah, this trigger wave, you
18:18
Speaker 4: just got to hold where you are right now.
18:20
Speaker 2: For Solana, I would say, where you are.
18:22
Speaker 1: That's the first time I've seen a bearish uh, I mean,
18:26
Speaker 1: because this is a kind of a weird episode. I mean,
18:29
Speaker 1: I mean, you're saying, you know, Bulvember, but what you're
18:32
Speaker 1: showing me is negative on eight, negative on Solana. All
18:37
Speaker 1: of these are kind of pointing in the wrong direction,
18:39
Speaker 1: possibly not a top coming in on bitcoin and you've
18:44
Speaker 1: got money pouring into the S and P. If we
18:46
Speaker 1: don't get a rate cut, well, the raate cut.
18:49
Speaker 4: I don't think that really, to be honest, I don't
18:51
Speaker 4: think the ray cuts really going to mean anything at
18:53
Speaker 4: this point.
18:53
Speaker 2: I mean, at the end of QT, they know, we
18:55
Speaker 2: know if.
18:57
Speaker 1: They don't, meaning that we don't get one. I'm just
19:00
Speaker 1: saying in December, not getting.
19:02
Speaker 4: Oh, I would think that's I don't know if I
19:05
Speaker 4: would agree with that that narrative, that not getting a
19:08
Speaker 4: ray cut would be polish. I would think not getting
19:10
Speaker 4: a ray cut would be So what happened when we
19:13
Speaker 4: didn't get a rate cut in January of this year,
19:15
Speaker 4: that was the end of everything.
19:16
Speaker 2: For a while, you know what I mean.
19:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's my fear. But yeah, to that point, yeah,
19:22
Speaker 1: and I think the analyst was hitting on that point,
19:24
Speaker 1: is that this would mark the end of the bull
19:26
Speaker 1: run if we did get a rate cut. What they
19:29
Speaker 1: were saying is trying to hold rights because there's too
19:31
Speaker 1: much money slashing around. I don't understand how that would
19:34
Speaker 1: play into it. Let's jump over to another ETF that
19:38
Speaker 1: looks like it's going to go live and that is
19:40
Speaker 1: the XRP ETF. Now, this is going to get weird
19:43
Speaker 1: because you got Canary Capital targeting November thirteenth. If this
19:48
Speaker 1: rolls out here and what is going to be two weeks.
19:51
Speaker 1: If you look at the chart, what do you like
19:53
Speaker 1: about XRP for November?
19:55
Speaker 4: This looks actually a little bit better in most things,
19:58
Speaker 4: I'll say, because you're getting a good make high lows,
20:00
Speaker 4: you're getting a good jump. I do like how this looks,
20:03
Speaker 4: and I do think you might be able to repeat
20:05
Speaker 4: this situation, and this would be in the beginning of November,
20:09
Speaker 4: making your way up to potentially three dollars. So I
20:12
Speaker 4: do think there's potential here. I want to see how
20:15
Speaker 4: more of this stuff plays out. I mean, your three
20:18
Speaker 4: day is a little bit wobbily right here. I want
20:21
Speaker 4: to see if we can get more of a play upward.
20:25
Speaker 4: I think the five yeah, if we want, this looks
20:27
Speaker 4: good here. The XRP looks a lot better than most
20:29
Speaker 4: things right now. So I think this could be one
20:32
Speaker 4: of those that jumps up to two eighty eight and
20:34
Speaker 4: then potentially three thirty and I mean most likely the
20:38
Speaker 4: other coins that I'm a little bit more cautious on
20:40
Speaker 4: would jump up to some people surprised if that does happen.
20:44
Speaker 4: But you know, to make a new all time high
20:47
Speaker 4: by the end of November, I think that may be
20:49
Speaker 4: kind of hard. I think we would need to extend
20:51
Speaker 4: out farther into into December or even January if you
20:54
Speaker 4: want to make a new all time high here.
20:55
Speaker 1: Interesting, okay, so possibly that could be one of the
20:58
Speaker 1: all coins if you kind of consider it that way
21:01
Speaker 1: going into this. Other ones we have to look at
21:04
Speaker 1: is Avalanche rbas have exploded. The touch of God is
21:09
Speaker 1: in there, and that is Blackrock Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund
21:13
Speaker 1: came in and immediately hit right there on Avalanche. So
21:17
Speaker 1: and if you look at this, this takes Avalanche into
21:20
Speaker 1: the number two position right now at least on overall
21:23
Speaker 1: token supply circulating holding up and interesting. What does that
21:28
Speaker 1: do for avacs in terms of the chart, because it
21:30
Speaker 1: has been struggling to maintain that twenty dollars mark.
21:33
Speaker 4: Avalanche. Yeah, I mean it's making higher lows. That's what
21:37
Speaker 4: I like right here. I mean this could be one
21:40
Speaker 4: of those places that a lot of people are scared,
21:42
Speaker 4: including myself, to be honest, I mean trigger wave right
21:45
Speaker 4: here forming on your four day or three day. If
21:47
Speaker 4: you can have these playout, they're rare, pretty rare, bullish
21:51
Speaker 4: signs like you could get easily jump back up to
21:55
Speaker 4: potentially a double you know, thirty eight dollars into end
21:58
Speaker 4: a year early January. If you do, you know, repeat
22:02
Speaker 4: what you saw. Let's let me just show you others
22:04
Speaker 4: versus Bitcoin quickly. This is cycle looks more like twenty
22:07
Speaker 4: seventeen into twenty eighteen for others. You had to drop
22:10
Speaker 4: here in October, same drop right here. So if it
22:13
Speaker 4: does play out like this, you may see a big
22:16
Speaker 4: jump into early next year. If you can, you know,
22:19
Speaker 4: have that playout, and potentially you know, I wouldn't roll
22:22
Speaker 4: out in all cooin season, potentially seeing some type of
22:25
Speaker 4: all coin season.
22:25
Speaker 2: I mean what I'll just tell you.
22:27
Speaker 4: I know, I sound like a little bit not sure,
22:29
Speaker 4: you know, what's going to happen here. I'm sixty six
22:32
Speaker 4: or seventy percent essentially still in everything that I have,
22:36
Speaker 4: all the holds, everything I have sold thirty percent so far,
22:39
Speaker 4: and that's kind of my technique. And I plan on
22:41
Speaker 4: being out, not completely, but out, you know, mostly by
22:45
Speaker 4: early January. So I think that's kind of the best
22:48
Speaker 4: hedge I think at this point you've wanted to have
22:51
Speaker 4: taken at least some profits, not financial advice obviously, but
22:54
Speaker 4: some profits, but still have some exposure in case we
22:57
Speaker 4: do continue forward, because in the cycles, this quarter four
23:01
Speaker 4: of the post having years always generally the biggest profit
23:04
Speaker 4: taking area.
23:06
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well you've said that pretty much all year as
23:08
Speaker 1: late late cycle would be end of year if it
23:12
Speaker 1: does extend, you know, into early next I think that's
23:14
Speaker 1: a question mark on what token and for what narrative
23:17
Speaker 1: reason that we're seeing. So far, things have been playing
23:20
Speaker 1: out as we anticipated, with exception of all the balls
23:24
Speaker 1: being in the air. We talked about this yesterday with
23:28
Speaker 1: you know, tariffs, balls that are in the air rates.
23:31
Speaker 1: Now balls are in the air again, and of course
23:34
Speaker 1: we're dealing with the same thing on Clarity, which if
23:36
Speaker 1: Clarity goes through, that could be a possible run for
23:40
Speaker 1: all coins. If we get the Clarity apple, that would
23:42
Speaker 1: be a that would be an interesting one one going forward.
23:46
Speaker 1: Other things to take a look at right here, if
23:48
Speaker 1: you look at just dex volume right here on unicewap,
23:52
Speaker 1: kind of an explosion too, because uniswap continues to see
23:55
Speaker 1: pretty crazy dex volume. What about unicewop. Would this be
23:59
Speaker 1: a good trade right now?
24:00
Speaker 4: Potentially, let's take a look at you know, swap. It's
24:02
Speaker 4: not something too many people have talked about lately, which
24:05
Speaker 4: could be really good. So you're hitting this major, major,
24:08
Speaker 4: major area on you know, right around five dollars, same
24:12
Speaker 4: place you generally making you know, higher lows here. If
24:16
Speaker 4: all goes well, this could do what it did from
24:19
Speaker 4: April to all the way to August. They jump up
24:23
Speaker 4: into potentially early next year, back up to thirteen dollars.
24:26
Speaker 4: I guess if you do see all coin season, I mean,
24:28
Speaker 4: you got it, it's not going to go sideways forever.
24:30
Speaker 4: If it does break upward, you could be seeing a
24:33
Speaker 4: run towards new all time highest three or four AX.
24:36
Speaker 4: If you do see somewhat of an all coin season,
24:38
Speaker 4: you could argue too, you know, if we do see
24:40
Speaker 4: another rate cup, monetary policy would support more of an
24:44
Speaker 4: all season. So it's risky, but I do think, you know,
24:47
Speaker 4: there's potential to you know, jump to twelve dollars if
24:50
Speaker 4: all goes well here. If we do look at the
24:52
Speaker 4: macro though, a true way to the downside, you know,
24:56
Speaker 4: it's a little little dicey on the macro but I
24:58
Speaker 4: could see it turning around. See this turning around?
25:01
Speaker 1: Now, what would be your bullish indicator for November if
25:06
Speaker 1: you were putting it on the sentiment chart, you know,
25:09
Speaker 1: would you still say this is bullish?
25:12
Speaker 4: I November just just going up any amount in the
25:17
Speaker 4: next week to two weeks is bullish. We just need
25:20
Speaker 4: to go up. We just need to show green in
25:22
Speaker 4: the next week, I think, Yeah, hold one away k
25:25
Speaker 4: for bitcoin, hold thirty seven hundred for eighth Yeah, and just.
25:28
Speaker 1: Fear and greed dropping back down to thirty one after
25:32
Speaker 1: that nip that we had, which was pretty good last
25:35
Speaker 1: week at tent what was it forty two, which looked
25:38
Speaker 1: like the market might have come out. Obviously that has changed.
25:42
Speaker 1: This gets down into the no fly zone though, which
25:45
Speaker 1: was all the way back in April. That was that
25:47
Speaker 1: was one of the problem areas that we had with
25:49
Speaker 1: both April and March, dipping into fear and greed that
25:54
Speaker 1: was liberation dick, Yeah, there you go, which gave us
25:57
Speaker 1: an indicator around fifteen which was not good. So what
26:01
Speaker 1: a market we are living in. This is a different
26:03
Speaker 1: crypto market than we have seen in the past cycles.
26:06
Speaker 1: So you guys do not want to miss a show
26:09
Speaker 1: at all because you could miss some big activity. We're
26:13
Speaker 1: going to have Evan back in studios soon or back
26:16
Speaker 1: in the show soon. If you guys, as I said,
26:19
Speaker 1: if you're not following any Evan out there checking over
26:21
Speaker 1: on his channel, Evan Aldo Evan, thanks for coming in today.
26:24
Speaker 1: We appreciate it.
26:26
Speaker 2: Oh An, honor Paul, we're talking to you.
26:27
Speaker 1: You bet all right, You guys, make sure and do
26:29
Speaker 1: one thing, and that is get in on the Diamond Circle.
26:32
Speaker 1: It's our own private group and it's very easy to
26:34
Speaker 1: do and it's free. I give my indicators out there
26:37
Speaker 1: each week. I also drop in ideas of where I
26:40
Speaker 1: see this market going, and also bigger narratives too that
26:43
Speaker 1: could help you on, you know, kind of the forward
26:45
Speaker 1: thinking of how your own you know, life is building
26:48
Speaker 1: around assets and all that. Not financial advice, but at
26:51
Speaker 1: least it gets you in the right research zone. Follow
26:55
Speaker 1: me on X at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next
26:56
Speaker 1: time right here on the Paul Baron Show.
27:01
Speaker 7: If permuting, I