Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/20/26: Trump Threatens Iran, Trump Scared Of Being Jimmy Carter 2.0, Israel Humiliates Trump On Ceasefire

Transcript

4/20/26: Trump Threatens Iran, Trump Scared Of Being Jimmy Carter 2.0, Israel Humiliates Trump On Ceasefire · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 2: Good morning, everyone, Welcome to Breaking Points. We got a
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: little bit of an unusual setup here, really unusual.
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: Saga is out.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Apparently we needed more than one person to be able
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: to shoulder that load.
• 0:44
  Speaker 4: Unprecedented, I think right, yes.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: It is unprecedented.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So we've got a little bit of an unusual
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: setup to here today. We're all going to do the
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: first block, you're talking about the Iron War. Then we're
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: gonna have a little Crystal.
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: And Emily time. Then we're going to bring Ryan.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Back for the later half of the show. Anyway, we're
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: working out with scheduling, but I want to make sure
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: we're all involved here for the biggest news of the
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: day in terms of what's going on with Iran negotiations.
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: Maybe on they may be off us using.
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: And Iranian ship doesn't look good in terms of the
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: escalatory ladders, so we'll break that down. We've also got
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: an inside look at Trump's mentality and his own doubts
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: and concerns about whether he himself is turning into Jimmy Carter, so.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: That's an interesting one.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: We've got backlash after an IDF soldier desecrates a statue
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: of Jesus cash Mettel apparently on thin ice and drinking
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: extremely heavily. Zoran and Obama being really adorable with some children,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: will show you that and talk about what it means
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: about the future of the Democratic Party. We've got some
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: fake ai war supporters. That obviously is a very dystopian,
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: disturbing trend. And Trump is threatening that Cuba is next,
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: so we will take a look at what is going
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: on there. Let's go ahead and start with the latest
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: with regard to Iran. If we can put a one
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: up on the screen, So Trump says, Ryan he's sending
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: Witkoff and Kushner to Islamabad for round two of ron
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: peace talks. There was a lot of jade Vance was in,
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: he was on, he was in again. I think the
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: final decision is he is not going. There have been
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: a few things read into that. Obviously, jade Vance is
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: seen as being somewhat more skeptical of this war. The
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: Iranians felt a little more comfortable negotiating with him.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: Versus wit Cooff and Kushner.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: I also saw it speculated, well, maybe they're not sending
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: jad Vance and Trump out of security concerns because Trump
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: himself wants to potentially make an appearance of some sort
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: of deal isstruck, and you wouldn't want both of them
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: in the same place. So what do you think about
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: those dynamics? And also, the Iranians have not agreed to
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: go forward with these talks at all, and you know,
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: it seems less likely now that the US has seized
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: this Iranian ship, fired on this Iranian ship as well.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: So how do you think the Iranians reviewing things at
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: this point?
• 2:51
  Speaker 5: Yeah, the Iranians, they probably will end up sending somebody
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: to this but as of now, the reporting over the
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: last several days was that oh, yeah, audience are sending
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: a delegation and they're going to meet and maybe even
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: Dvans will be there.
• 3:03
  Speaker 6: That was not true.
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: They still and to this hour, they still have not
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: agreed to send to even send anybody.
• 3:10
  Speaker 7: There is your sense that the administration was trying to
• 3:12
  Speaker 7: manifest that that they would go like publicly ratchet up
• 3:16
  Speaker 7: the pressure.
• 3:16
  Speaker 6: Yeah, it's happened.
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: And also I think a little bit of obliviousness that
• 3:20
  Speaker 5: like they can just call the shots that they say like, hey,
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: we're having coffee at three, we're going to talk, and
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: everybody just shows up like kind of this residual superpower
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: kind of feeling that say.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: Oh, mindset too, where it's like, oh, if I tell
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: my underling that we're having this meeting, like obviously they're
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: going to move Havn arms to be there.
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: And we're still within the twelve or fourteen days of
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: the ceasefire, and both sides do want an agreement.
• 3:48
  Speaker 6: So the thing is, well, they'll show up.
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: But then you have this attack on the ship, right,
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: and so that you know that has thrown that that
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: has thrown a real wild card. Some and the US
• 4:00
  Speaker 5: government feel like they that the kind of IRGC baited
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: them into this, and that the US took debate because
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: there's real tension inside the Iranian government. The you know IRGC,
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: if you know, it is not a monolithic but is
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: now you know, dominated by people who have a more
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: hardline attitude and they think they need to extract more
• 4:24
  Speaker 5: pain from the US and Israel that they're not done,
• 4:27
  Speaker 5: they're not done you know, beating us up, whereas you've
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: got some of the kind of civilian leadership that is saying, no,
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: we're never going to have better leverage than.
• 4:36
  Speaker 6: We have now. So within that, you know.
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: If they can, you know, it's it's a similar, you know,
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: similar way that kind of nen Yahu approaches things to
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: just kind of take action and like bomb something and
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: just kind of start the war again. So the Irgy
• 4:52
  Speaker 5: can see kind of may have you know, manufactured this
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: incident and then the US takes the bait attacks it, and.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: Your sense is that tension is ail is not a
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: good cop bad cop kind of a negotiating text.
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: Now, I think it's very real because I think that
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: it has been there under the surface for decades, but
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: it was kept down by comin a who was.
• 5:12
  Speaker 6: Saying no like this.
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: We're going to take a more moderate, pragmatic diplomatic approach.
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: We're not going ham on these people and then they
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: all got killed.
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and talk a little bit more about
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: that ship. We can put.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: Go ahead, step forward to a four, because this is
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: very significant. This is Trump announcing the seizure of this
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: Iranian flag ship.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: Today.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: An Iranian flag cargo ship named Tuska and near least
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: nine hundred feet long, weighing almost as much as an
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: aircraft carrier, tried to get past our naval blockade.
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: Did not go well for them.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: The US Navy guided missile destroyer USS Bruance intercepted the
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: Tuska in the Gulf of om On and gave them
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: for fair warning to stop.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: The Iranian crew refused.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: To listen, so our navy ships stopped them right in
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: their tracks by blowing a hole in the engine room.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: Right now, US marines have custody of the vessel. The
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: Tusca's under US Treasury sanctions because of their prior history
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: of illegal activity. We have full custody of the ship
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: and are seeing what's on board. Originally, the Iranians had
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: put out a different narrative of what happened here. But
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: at this point we also have video and we can
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: put this up on the screen next this vo that
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: was posted by Setcom of the US ship firing on
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: the Iranian ship. That's what you can see there on
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: their screen. They've since released this more sort of like
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: montage of the whole operation. So that's what's being put
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: out from the US. And reportedly this ship was there
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: for like six hours and not listening to the USA
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: and you need to turn around. Also, reportedly there were
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: other ships that were able to get through, something like
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: seven other ships that were able to get through this
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: US blockade. So to your point about whether it was
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: kind of like an IRGC setup, you know, both the
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: fact that Okay, we're going to keep transitting here and
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: we're not going to listen to you and your blockade,
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: and the fact that the warnings were ignored for some
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: number of hours does sort of suggest that may be
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: the case.
• 6:58
  Speaker 7: Well, that's brings us to this drop site post. This
• 7:01
  Speaker 7: is going to be a sixes giving to this one
• 7:03
  Speaker 7: a six the blockade itself. And I'm curious, given everything
• 7:07
  Speaker 7: you just said, Ryan about how this tension is very
• 7:09
  Speaker 7: real the blockade itself was apparently a huge part of
• 7:13
  Speaker 7: the disagreement on Friday over what had actually happened. Was
• 7:18
  Speaker 7: this a big breakthrough in the negotiations? As Donald Trump
• 7:21
  Speaker 7: had said, he was framing this as historic, a great deal.
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: What did he say? A great day for the people
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: in the world, will peace? Whatever he said.
• 7:27
  Speaker 7: But in this drop site post you all highlight reporting
• 7:32
  Speaker 7: that says IRGC linked Tastinue News Agency added quote, as
• 7:37
  Speaker 7: long as Trump's announcement of a naval blockade remains in effect,
• 7:40
  Speaker 7: there will be no negotiations. And I'm not curious given
• 7:44
  Speaker 7: what you said, it was there internal disagreement in Iran
• 7:49
  Speaker 7: over the blockade itself. Was the blockade itself seen as
• 7:54
  Speaker 7: a red line to whatever wasn't nounced Friday by one
• 7:56
  Speaker 7: side and on the other side.
• 7:57
  Speaker 6: Certainly there were some who.
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: Wanted to at least message how it was opening up. Differently,
• 8:05
  Speaker 5: Araghi put out a post that was very kind of
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: olive Branchee to the Americans saying it's open under our
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: you know, under our conditions and under our logistics.
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: And I think he posted before Trump.
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: Right, and so it's a so it was giving Trump
• 8:21
  Speaker 5: an opening to be magnanimous and move towards a final agreement. Now,
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: the way that racually phrased it, it was clear that
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: it still meant the ir audience would charge a toll
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: and that they would be kind of running it.
• 8:35
  Speaker 6: But it's open.
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: Anybody who wants to go through can go through. You
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: just have to kind of negotiate with us as you're
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: as you're going through. I think the IRGC would have
• 8:44
  Speaker 5: did not like the olive branch kind of nature of it.
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: They wanted a much harder line that no, no, we
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: like our battlefield victories are going to be manifested by
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: our control of the Strait of Hormuz. So that's not
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: how he framed it. He gave Trump the opportunity, you know,
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: to be a peacemaker, to be a diplomat. And Trump
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: comes out and says, aha, you know, these suckers surrendered, surrendered,
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: and you know if they're not, you know, and I
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: am the one that actually is going to close the
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: straight and four moose naval blockade is on. We're the greatest,
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: We're the hottest country in the world. So that made
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: a Roger you look like an idiot. Then the IRGYC
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: comes out and they're like a rog she was wrong.
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: It's closed f you, it's ours.
• 9:24
  Speaker 7: Interesting because then fast forward forty eight hours later and
• 9:27
  Speaker 7: you have as you're saying, Ryan, isn't even possible that
• 9:29
  Speaker 7: the IRGC was kind of baiting the US into firing
• 9:33
  Speaker 7: on the vessels, right.
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: Because you know clear if they were, if they're worn
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: for six hours or whatever. Yeah, and if they really
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: don't want any conflict with the US, then you'd tell
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: the ship, all right, you know what we're things are tense,
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: back off.
• 9:47
  Speaker 6: Like come back to port. We don't want to really
• 9:49
  Speaker 6: test things here.
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: But if you actually want the US to kind of
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: collapse the ceasefire because you think you need to keep
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: fighting to get a better position, then you would say, no,
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: keep keep going.
• 10:01
  Speaker 6: They're not going to mess with you. They let other
• 10:02
  Speaker 6: ships go through.
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: Trelin's using truth as his vision board.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: So it's also like, yes, and Trump by doing that
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: and trying to humiliate them, Oh, he looks surrendered that
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: what does that do? That strengthens the case of the
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: hardliners to see, hold you, we told you like you, Yes,
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: you have to continue fighting them. We need to go
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: back to the war and we can put a five
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: B up on the screen. There's now a threat from Iran.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: They said that they had launched drones toward US warships
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: following that attack.
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: We also can put eight up on the screen.
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: This is professor Marandi who we had on the show
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: last week, who is he's a University of professor, but
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: who also was at the talks in Islamabad. He also
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: was part of the delegation during the JCPO way and
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: he put this out and he said, leave you Ae Bahrain,
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait immediately. Iran will retaliate, destroying everything.
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: These regimes are guilty partners in the gemicidal Epstein coalition
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: and won't be forgiven. The rising temperatures in the Persian
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: Gulf will soon make them uninhabitable. And that was something
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: that he talked about when he was with us on
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: the show. He said, listen, we're talking about summer around
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: the corner, and the temperatures are truly uninhabitable in these
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: Gulf Arab states.
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: He's like, in Iran, we might be uncomfortable, but will
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: be okay.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: But you have this vulnerable electrical grid effectively, and so
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: you know if you are partnering with the us. There
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: are a lot more things we could do. The other thing, obviously,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: is getting the hoofies more engaged and blocking that part,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: that transit point as well, so they rather than you know,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: when we talked on Friday during the Friday Show, it
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: was okay, this olive branch and it looks like there's
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: kind of sort of a ceasefire in Lebanon. Trump is saying, Okay,
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: we're not not going to tolerate any more tax on
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: Lebanon from Israel. Then Trump's own rhetoric and new threats
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: also against the Iranians has sort of destroyed all of
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: that and strengthened the hardliners and made it much more
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: difficult to imagine how they can then even go to
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: these talks. Given the escalatory chain that we're now facing, we.
• 12:06
  Speaker 7: Don't actually even really know who's in charge of Iran,
• 12:09
  Speaker 7: like seriously, because the first step of the war was
• 12:11
  Speaker 7: to take out the top of the regime. And that's
• 12:15
  Speaker 7: if you're if you're just making the case that Trump
• 12:17
  Speaker 7: has waged this war in a like rational logical sense.
• 12:23
  Speaker 7: I mean, obviously we know who's been an influence on him,
• 12:26
  Speaker 7: and yah who wants abject chaos and what we're seeing
• 12:29
  Speaker 7: right now is clearly abject chaos, just as we're trying
• 12:31
  Speaker 7: to lead read the tea leaves from these negotiations. So
• 12:36
  Speaker 7: the idea that Trump is on the cusp of a
• 12:38
  Speaker 7: breakthrough is it seems laughable, right, You guys at drop
• 12:42
  Speaker 7: site are obviously entirely Jeremy has that great story as
• 12:45
  Speaker 7: of was that last night that Yeah, it seems like
• 12:49
  Speaker 7: it's not at.
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: All near the finish line.
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: And imagine if you're the Iranians, So the US trying
• 12:54
  Speaker 5: to figure out who's running Iran. Ron's trying to figure
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: out who runs the US, Like.
• 12:59
  Speaker 6: Who's in charge?
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: It seems like they've decided who runs c US what
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: they feel like?
• 13:04
  Speaker 6: Yeah, and then who who runs NET?
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 13:06
  Speaker 6: Who like? And who? What?
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: Like?
• 13:08
  Speaker 6: Who is it? Kushner?
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: And yah, who is it wit coffin Yahoo? Directly to
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: Trump like yeah, it's what is hegseeth telling?
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: Uh?
• 13:18
  Speaker 6: Trump? It depends the time of day for Trump. The
• 13:25
  Speaker 6: Iranians are dealing with.
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: Wit Coffin Kushner because Vance isn't really fully back in yet.
• 13:31
  Speaker 5: Who all the reports are from the UK from everybody else, like,
• 13:35
  Speaker 5: had no idea what they were talking about at the
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: last round of negotiations, and so the Iranians are left
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: to consider, Okay, was this actual ignorance?
• 13:45
  Speaker 6: They were just dumb, like they.
• 13:47
  Speaker 5: Didn't understand nuclear physics, Like I don't, I don't get it,
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: Like why would they understand it?
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: Uh?
• 13:53
  Speaker 6: Then they did? But did they just forget to bring
• 13:56
  Speaker 6: technical experts?
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: So this isn't going to be the moment when Ryan
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: reveals his secret path nuclearsiness. We dried after the finance guy,
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: then that's nuclear.
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: We joke about it, but it really could be true.
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: Definitely not true. I would have to bring a technical expert.
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: So did they forget one? Was it incompetence or were
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: they just planning to do the war the entire time,
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: Which means that do you trust them more or less
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: this time around? Yeah, because they're basically asking for the
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: same things that Iran already agreed to in the past.
• 14:24
  Speaker 6: So how do you if you're iron how do you
• 14:26
  Speaker 6: make sense of that?
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: And what Mirandi told us? And I don't know if
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: this is pr if this is their actual thinking. Number one,
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: he says, listen, in our view, every day that this
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: continues is advantage us because we can withstand more pain.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: You know, the ideas that the economic news gets tighter
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: around the US and the world every day that this
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: goes on and you don't have full flow through the
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: straight offour moves. And ironically, after Friday, when it looked like,
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: oh there's going to be you know, it's open and
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: there's going to be ships, now it is actually completely
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: closed in a way that it was not previously. So
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: which this is why the oil markets are responding. You know,
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: oil prices are spiking again. The sport futures are down.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: That's right, that's right as well. We could talk about
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: that in a minute too. So he said, you know,
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: that's our view is the longer this goes on, and
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: that's part of the thinking behind going to these negotiations
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: is it basically means like the clock is ticking for Trump.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: For US, Okay, we're not being bombed, but that economic
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: reality is becoming increasingly real. The other thing that he
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: said is, you know, we don't really believe that they're serious.
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: About these negotiations.
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: He's like, we didn't believe they were serious the last
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: time leading up to this war.
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: We didn't believe they were serious.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: Before the Twelve Day War, we were right about all
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: those things, but we wanted to go to demonstrate that
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: we are operating in good faith and basically put out
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: a sort of message to the world of like, we're
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: willing to negotiate, we don't want this war. But they suspect,
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: again this is according to him, they suspect that these
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: negotiations aren't serious and that they are planning to in
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: excess words, load and go back to war.
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: They also felt it seems that jade.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: Vance did not have authority last time around to really negotiate.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: He was constantly on the phone hav to call Trump,
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: they alleged calling that Yahoo as well. I don't know
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: if that's true or not, but they felt that Jadvance
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: did not actually even have the authority to be able
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: to negotiate the deal. And then you add to that
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: the fact that you've got the same warns who didn't
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: understand the first, you know, nuclear physics offer that was
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: on the table, and it doesn't really seem like a
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: recipe for success here. And then when I got from
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: Jeremy's article too, Ryan, is that even though basically the
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: only actual agreement between the two sides is that they
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: would like to find some sort of a deal, but
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: in terms of the terms of that deal, there has
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: been really no progress towards coming to an understanding what
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: that would look like. And it's very easy to understand why,
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: because the US is effectively strategically lost this war, but
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: it is not willing to accept the humiliating terms that
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: you know, acknowledgment of that reality would entail.
• 17:00
  Speaker 7: Yeah, well, it sounds like there's on both sides competing
• 17:04
  Speaker 7: factions who have different ends for what that settlement should
• 17:07
  Speaker 7: look like. And Al Jazeera reporting Trump may be seeking
• 17:11
  Speaker 7: quote a Gaza piece style framework agreement. So that gets
• 17:14
  Speaker 7: us to this question of as they're trying to determine
• 17:16
  Speaker 7: whether the negotiations are serious. I mean, the big question
• 17:19
  Speaker 7: is serious about what serious about? What like a Vibe
• 17:22
  Speaker 7: style ceasefire? And I kind of feel like that's what.
• 17:25
  Speaker 7: I don't know if or Crystal you would describe what
• 17:28
  Speaker 7: we have now in Gaza as I'm not trying to
• 17:31
  Speaker 7: downplay it at all, but as like a Vibe style agreement,
• 17:34
  Speaker 7: which was the agreement is that we have an agreement,
• 17:36
  Speaker 7: and whatever is happening beneath the surface, don't worry about it.
• 17:40
  Speaker 7: If the terms are being carried out, don't worry about it.
• 17:41
  Speaker 7: We're going to keep pushing, We're going to keep figuring
• 17:43
  Speaker 7: it out as we go.
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: But you know, it's a vibe.
• 17:46
  Speaker 7: The vibe is that we agree, and you know, you
• 17:48
  Speaker 7: can spin things different ways as they happen on the ground.
• 17:52
  Speaker 7: So what is that, Actually, what are you serious about?
• 17:54
  Speaker 7: At the end of the day, You're just trying to
• 17:56
  Speaker 7: get a pr win, which is what it seems like
• 17:59
  Speaker 7: Trump wants more than anything. I mean, obviously he wants
• 18:01
  Speaker 7: gas prices to go down. So that's why he's obsessed
• 18:04
  Speaker 7: with the straight and should be should have been obsessed
• 18:06
  Speaker 7: with the straight before you launched the war. But yeah,
• 18:09
  Speaker 7: it's it's like on the Iranian side, there are two
• 18:12
  Speaker 7: competing factions. In the US, it's like there are a
• 18:14
  Speaker 7: million competing factions about what is acceptable and a way
• 18:17
  Speaker 7: to end the war because Trump is just waiting to
• 18:19
  Speaker 7: see what he thinks is the right vibe.
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and with the Gaza deal, these realities in the
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: US have refused to move to the next phase.
• 18:26
  Speaker 6: It's supposed to be reconstruction. They haven't allowed in the amount.
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: Of aid that they're supposed to allow, and for it,
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: they claim it requires disarmament of Hamas even though it's
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: not in there. So they lie about the terms. They
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: don't stop the ceasing of fire, but the media talks.
• 18:41
  Speaker 8: About it of violations of that quote unquote and on
• 18:45
  Speaker 8: the arm these militias that they you know, these gangs
• 18:48
  Speaker 8: that they send in to carry out action on their behalf.
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: So but from Trump's perspective, everyone in the press is
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: calling it a cease fire, right.
• 18:55
  Speaker 6: But from the Iranians perspective, they're like, that doesn't look
• 18:57
  Speaker 6: like go, yeah, well.
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: We agreed to at this point state the obvious.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Hamas and Iran are not equivalent actors, you know, I mean,
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: Iran has real state power, real capacity.
• 19:07
  Speaker 6: It's not clear that we approach it as obvious.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Trump certainly doesn't approach it as obvious since.
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: He thought this was going to be over in four days.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: So do you you know, I don't think there's any
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: possibility that Iran is going to accept some Gaza style
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: approach to be imposed upon them. That's not that's not reality.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: And you know, I think that tension between Arachi and
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: Gallibof and some of the other sort of more moderate Hey,
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: let's you know, let's try to work something out versus
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: the IRGC hardliners. You know, I think that is very
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: significantcause it means when they're at the negotiating table, they
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: are under pressure to not cave too much, to hold
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: the line in terms of the you know, the demands
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: that they've been consistently asserting since the beginning of the conflict.
• 19:50
  Speaker 7: And Lindsay Graham is mad at Trump right now too.
• 19:52
  Speaker 7: You say he's he's mad about that war. For Lindsay
• 19:56
  Speaker 7: g he's he's ready to move on to Turkey. No,
• 20:00
  Speaker 7: he's upset about the Barack review report about twenty billion
• 20:02
  Speaker 7: dollars cash free uranium deal and saying, you know, I
• 20:05
  Speaker 7: support President Trump's desire in the conflict, but any sanctions
• 20:09
  Speaker 7: really has to be earned by a complete and total
• 20:10
  Speaker 7: acceptance by a run a President Trump's reasonable demands.
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: Which are a hegoes on the list of all of
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: the obvious points, no.
• 20:17
  Speaker 7: Enrichment period, turning over the nine hundred pounds of highly
• 20:21
  Speaker 7: enriched uranium to the US.
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: So the good luck.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: And Ryan, what is your sense of what the Israelis
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: might do, because they certainly want to go back to war.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: This is an unacceptable you know, if there was a
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: deal reached at this point, it would be totally unacceptable
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: to them. What sort of actions might they take to
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: try to undermine any potential piece deal.
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: I think continuing to fight in Lebanon is probably the
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: thing that works for them, because they like to fight
• 20:48
  Speaker 5: in Lebanon. They're trying to seize all of this territory, which,
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: as we've talked about, pushes them up past the control
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: of the gas fields off the coast of Lebanon as well.
• 21:01
  Speaker 6: They're destroying all of the towns and villages there.
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: They're claiming that they're going to draw yellow lines similar
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: to Gaza, and that this is going to be there
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: as plus then a buffer zone. Then you have to
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: move you know, people further up to settle the buffer zone,
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: and then you then you need a buffer zone above
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: the settlement, and then on and on and on. So
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: I think they'll continue to do that and that, and
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: that creates the conditions to restart the war. Though there
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: are a lot of elements within Iran are fine, are
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: fine with that, So that's not it's not what Trump wants,
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: but it's not clear how much it matters what Trump wants.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: Lastly, let's put a fourteen guys up on the screen.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: This is something that you had flagged, Ryan, that this
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: Roznas oil depot and export facility in Krasnodor, Kray, Russia.
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: Sorry for the terrible pronunciation.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: Currently a blaze with dozens of tanks seen burning as
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: thick black smoke poors in the sky, falling large scale
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: drone attack by Ukraine as oil infrastructure across southern Russia.
• 22:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, this is their black Sea export facility. So at
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: the same time that the US once again lifted sanctions
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: on Russian oil to try to keep oil prices down,
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: So the US wants Russian oil on the market to
• 22:20
  Speaker 5: keep oil prices down.
• 22:22
  Speaker 6: At the same time.
• 22:23
  Speaker 5: They're getting their oil infrastructure and their export capacity smashed
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: by Ukraine, which is you know, it's interesting because it
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: kind of helps Iran like that if the US is
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: to be believed that we want oil prices to be
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: low and that Iran is correct, a higher oil prices,
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: higher gas prices make it harder for US to wage
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: the war.
• 22:46
  Speaker 6: That this doesn't serve us.
• 22:49
  Speaker 7: You never know when you're in August from nineteen fourteen,
• 22:51
  Speaker 7: like you just you don't until you do. You never
• 22:56
  Speaker 7: and like when you have these two hot conflicts with
• 23:00
  Speaker 7: similar parties, involved. It's in the US is fighting obviously
• 23:03
  Speaker 7: a proxy wear in Ukraine and in Israel via military
• 23:07
  Speaker 7: support for both of those countries. It's can pop into
• 23:10
  Speaker 7: something much, much, much bigger at basically anytime.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: What is your sense, Ryan, if you had to guess,
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: are there going to be for their negotiations this week
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: ceasefire are going to be extended?
• 23:21
  Speaker 6: I would say, yeah, they'll have some talks and they'll extend.
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: I think there'll be another response from Iran related to
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: this ship, but that the US but that it'll be
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: more of like the last year kind of thing.
• 23:33
  Speaker 6: We're going to hit this place and then.
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: Heads up, we're going to hit this because we have
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: to respond.
• 23:37
  Speaker 6: Yeah, and then they'll extend it.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: That kind of requires the ERGYC to go along with
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: that kind of strategy, though, doesn't.
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: It It does, But I think you know there they
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: I think the IRGC has not They're not like fully
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: in control and determined to go back to war.
• 23:54
  Speaker 6: I think I think there's a lot of pressure in
• 23:56
  Speaker 6: that direction, but.
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: They but they don't necessarily totally disagree with the leadership
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: that is saying no, no, there is a chance for
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: a good deal here, let's get it. Because then there's
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: up the other condition of what what if the US
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: takes Joe Kent's advice and just walks away leave sanctions on.
• 24:15
  Speaker 6: Then what then they don't get you know, they don't
• 24:20
  Speaker 6: then then what does Zuron do at that point? So
• 24:23
  Speaker 6: it's it's not obvious.
• 24:25
  Speaker 5: So a lot of them would prefer a deal if
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: it's possible. I think they just think it's not possible.
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: Gotcha.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: Okay, well we will see what the next days bring. Now,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: Emily and I are going to talk about Trump's mental state,
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: and Ryan is going to go away for a while
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: to return when we bring the topic of Zoron and
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: Obama back.
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: So Ryan will see you.
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: Then.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: So let's turn to this very juicy piece from the
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal about what's going on internally and what
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: Trump's mindset is. To the best that anyone can divine,
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: and put this up on the screen. The headline here
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: is behind Trump's public bravado on the war, he grapples
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: with his own fears. The subhead here is the President's
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: impulsive style has never before been tested during a sustained
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: military conflict. Ruminating on Jimmy Carter, I like.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: That aspect of it.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: Let me read you a little bit of the lead here,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: and then I'll get some of Emily's reaction in her
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: understanding what's going on behind the scenes, says it seemed
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: like Donald Trump's appetite for risk had run out. His
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: fears were ramping up. It was good Friday afternoon in
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: a nearly empty West Wing. Soon after the President learned
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: an American jet had been shot down and Iran with
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: two airman missing. Trump screamed at AIDS for hours. The
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: Europeans aren't helping, he said repeatedly. Gas prices average four
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: dollars in ninth cents.
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: Images of the nineteen seventy.
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: Nine Iranian hostage crisis, one of the biggest international policy
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: failures of a presidency in recent times, had been looming
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: large in his mind. If you look at what happened
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: with Jimmy Carter, with the helicopters and the hostages, it
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: cost them the election, Trump said in March, what a mess.
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: Trump demanded the military go get them immediately. But the
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: US hadn't been on the ground and run since the
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: government overthrew that overthrow that led to the hostage crisis,
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: and they needed to figure out how to get into
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: treacherous irony and terrain and avoid tree. Ron's own military
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: aids kept the president out of the room as they
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: got minute by minute updates because they believed his impatience
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: would not be helpful, instead updating him at meaningful moments,
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: a senior administration official set, So we will need to
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: start with that first of all. I mean, just in
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: these opening graphs, Emily, you have him thinking about, oh
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: my god, I'm turning into Jimmy Carter, like this could
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: be total disaster. Of course, he only cares about like
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: the political ramifications of that, not like the moral ethical
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: ramifications of what he's doing here.
• 26:37
  Speaker 7: And then you how so Jimmy Carter fan Trump could
• 26:42
  Speaker 7: transmography into Jimmy Carter.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: I would be very happy if Trump was doing a
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter presidency right now. Would be vast improvement over
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: what we've actually got. But the other piece here is
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: the military literally having to keep him out of the
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: room because of what a mess he is. That doesn't
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: seem like a great sign either.
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: Oh, I mean, it's obviously not. And what's I'm curious about.
• 27:03
  Speaker 7: When Trump won, we got all of these stories constantly
• 27:06
  Speaker 7: about the interior and how his own aids didn't trust him.
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: Well, he doesn't have John Kelly.
• 27:13
  Speaker 7: It's not like he's full I think his advisors right
• 27:16
  Speaker 7: now are potential skeptics of him, or people who are
• 27:19
  Speaker 7: just like reluctantly on board because they think they can
• 27:21
  Speaker 7: steer him.
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: Like he's surrounded by people true believers.
• 27:25
  Speaker 7: Yeah, absolutely, on a daily basis, he's surrounded by the
• 27:28
  Speaker 7: true believers. So how these stories are getting out is
• 27:31
  Speaker 7: interesting enough. I think they were pretty There was a
• 27:33
  Speaker 7: pretty quiet occurrence of stories like this in the first
• 27:38
  Speaker 7: year of Trump two point zero. It was not often
• 27:40
  Speaker 7: that you got high level leaks, especially high level damaging
• 27:43
  Speaker 7: leaks to this extent. And you can tell these leaks
• 27:46
  Speaker 7: aren't necessarily trying to make Trump look bad. That's what's interesting,
• 27:50
  Speaker 7: Like they're not trying to take him out. They're just
• 27:52
  Speaker 7: trying to explain what happened, because that at least that's
• 27:55
  Speaker 7: how I'm reading it, because we keep swinging back and
• 27:59
  Speaker 7: forth why from A to B. It obviously makes Trump
• 28:02
  Speaker 7: look bad, But like just this weekend is the best example,
• 28:05
  Speaker 7: as we already talked about today, of how we started
• 28:08
  Speaker 7: where we were on Friday, with everyone taking their victory
• 28:10
  Speaker 7: lap about Trump making his big announcement, and then to Monday,
• 28:15
  Speaker 7: it's like night and day, as we predicted on Friday
• 28:18
  Speaker 7: that it would be.
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 28:19
  Speaker 7: But I think what people are trying to just do
• 28:21
  Speaker 7: is when reporters call them up, explain how you get
• 28:24
  Speaker 7: from point A to B to C to D to
• 28:25
  Speaker 7: E to F and then all the way to Z
• 28:27
  Speaker 7: in the span of forty eight hours. And it's clearly
• 28:30
  Speaker 7: that Trump is a negotiating in public and b doesn't
• 28:34
  Speaker 7: have an absolute strong, this is what I want to happen, yeah,
• 28:40
  Speaker 7: type of mindset at the end of the day, because
• 28:42
  Speaker 7: he's willing to just sort of make deals.
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: And also, I mean, I don't think this would be
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: a surprise to anybody. But you know, behind all the
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: public bravado, because obviously he never shows any doubts about
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: whether his strategy is like, oh, we're going to negotiate
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: today or oh, I'm going to murder your entire civilization today.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: He never displays any sort of like personal insecurity about
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: the strategy, even when the strategy.
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: Is all over the place.
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: But clearly, behind the scenes, he's not stupid enough to
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: think this is going well for him from a political perspective.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: He recognizes there are perils. I read into these leaks
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: people who want to establish the narrative pretty clearly that
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: this is all this guy, right, Trump is. He is
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: driving the train, he is piloting the aircraft.
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: He is the guy, and you know, we're all.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: It reminds me of the New York Times leaks, where
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: you had the TikTok of you know, basically everybody in
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: the room expressing some kind of concern about the idea
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: of starting this war and Trump deciding to do it
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: anyway and bringing that Yahu into the situation room and
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: all of that. So to me, that also serves the
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: narrative of like it really is on this guy, so
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: that if you're a Marco Ruby or R. Jd Vance
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: and you want some sort of future in politics, now
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: I don't think this strategy is going to work. You
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: have the you can reserve the opportunity to later on
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: be like elve and I told him that it wasn't
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: a great idea, and sure we were vindicated. Let me
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: go ahead and put this next quote up on the
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: screen here. To dig a little bit more into this piece,
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: they write in the Wall Street Journal when one advisor
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: this is about the praise be, to Praise be to
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: a law Easter Sunday tweet.
• 30:15
  Speaker 7: By the way, people, when Crystal reads this, you could
• 30:18
  Speaker 7: also imagine in your mind, as Crystal reads this, that
• 30:20
  Speaker 7: someone is talking about a thirteen year old. So load
• 30:24
  Speaker 7: that into your head as Crystal ghosts.
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: Very true.
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: When one advisor later asked Trump about that tweet, he
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: said he came up with the a law idea himself.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: He said he wanted to seem as unstable and insulting
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: as possible, believing it could bring the Iranians to the table.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: Senior administration officials said it was a language he said
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: the Iranians would understand, but he was also concerned about
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: the fallout. How's it playing, question mark? So he you
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: know this, I guess his idea is to behave like
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: a lunatic. And you know, if he is in fact
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: just acting like a lunatic, he is doing a convincing
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: job of that, because many people, even within his administration,
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: are like, maybe he genuinely is a lunatic. With the
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: you know, many truth socials that he's been putting out.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: We just had another whole like thirty seven in a
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: small period of time, and a bunch of them will
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: repeat posts where he's just like posting the same thing
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: over and over again, so he does act like a maniac.
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: I will give him that.
• 31:22
  Speaker 7: Well, yeah, and I think actually to your last point,
• 31:24
  Speaker 7: like that is the key. He is acting and when
• 31:27
  Speaker 7: you see people like he's, he's acting for the sake
• 31:29
  Speaker 7: of a negotiation on truth social And is there, I mean,
• 31:33
  Speaker 7: like in theory, a way to do that that in
• 31:36
  Speaker 7: some fantasy utopian world where you know you have to
• 31:40
  Speaker 7: go about these negotiations in public in one way that yes,
• 31:43
  Speaker 7: of course, first of all, that always happens. World leaders
• 31:45
  Speaker 7: are always using the rhetoric as part of negotiations. But secondly,
• 31:49
  Speaker 7: this reminds me so much of why he did the
• 31:51
  Speaker 7: Kim Jong un button tweet. He thinks he's speaking the
• 31:54
  Speaker 7: language of an actual crazy leader and that somehow gives
• 31:59
  Speaker 7: him the upper hand because he's the only other world
• 32:02
  Speaker 7: leader who's willing to talk to them in their own language.
• 32:05
  Speaker 7: But again, the whole idea of cheering for the United States,
• 32:10
  Speaker 7: if you're a MAGA person, is that we're supposed to
• 32:12
  Speaker 7: be better, right, We're supposed to be We're not supposed
• 32:14
  Speaker 7: to be having the civilization that chance death to Iran.
• 32:17
  Speaker 7: We're not supposed to be the people that say death
• 32:19
  Speaker 7: to an entire civilization. And he's just in the course
• 32:23
  Speaker 7: of these mundane negotiations wiping that out with now Iranians
• 32:28
  Speaker 7: who don't even need to be propagandized to say, this
• 32:30
  Speaker 7: is what the President of the United States just posted.
• 32:32
  Speaker 7: You don't even have to take it from State TV.
• 32:34
  Speaker 7: That's literally in his words on true social You don't
• 32:36
  Speaker 7: have to come up with some type of North three
• 32:38
  Speaker 7: and State TV fabrication.
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: It's right there.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, very hard to moralize about, you know, Iranian attacks
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: on civilian infrastructure, or even position yourself as like on
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: the moral high ground. When the President of the United
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: States is literally threatening to kill an entire civilization, it threatens.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: And now it's just routine that he threatens over war
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: crimes on a daily basis him.
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: Pete hag Sets, et cetera. That's just part of their
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: their approach here.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: And so look, it's one thing if you're like using
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: hardball tactics and some sort of a development deal, but
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: the words of a president, even this president, they do
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: they are consequential. Yes, you know, now you have normalized
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: the idea of US overtly threatening genocide and acting like
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: that is fine, and you know, and insulting a religion here,
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: you know, and we have you know, millions of Muslims
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: who live in this country.
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: I'm referring to the like Praise Be to Allah tweet.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: And the more you frame this war as some sort
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: of religious blood feud, the less likely you are to
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: be able to get out of it, which is why
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: it's so troubling, you know, from the Israeli side, from
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: the US, all of the insertion of all this religious
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: language and use of religious imagery into you know, what
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: is a political dispute is I think a really really
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: troubling element in this too.
• 34:01
  Speaker 7: It's I mean, it's obviously for Trump, who is not
• 34:06
  Speaker 7: really religious, just a tool of manipulation, that's what he's
• 34:10
  Speaker 7: trying to do in the praisebe to a Law tweet,
• 34:12
  Speaker 7: and it hits everyone in the wrong way. I mean,
• 34:14
  Speaker 7: it's literally not landing with anyone except for online Maga,
• 34:18
  Speaker 7: who equated it to him like his own explanation here,
• 34:23
  Speaker 7: which is that he's just speaking their language. I was like,
• 34:26
  Speaker 7: oh wow, that's that must be really difficult to do.
• 34:28
  Speaker 7: Brilliant like pat on the back you're Henry kissing jer like,
• 34:31
  Speaker 7: well done. Yeah, it's also stupid, but it explains how
• 34:35
  Speaker 7: on Friday he has this victory post and then by
• 34:38
  Speaker 7: Monday it's all fallen apart.
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: We had to.
• 34:42
  Speaker 7: Shut down the engines on an Iranian vessel and take
• 34:45
  Speaker 7: it over, which could have gone so badly for us.
• 34:50
  Speaker 7: Every second we're still in this, we could be looking
• 34:52
  Speaker 7: at losing dozens of soldiers in something like that. I
• 34:56
  Speaker 7: hope that isn't the case, but it could happen at
• 34:59
  Speaker 7: any moment, and Trump seems to be I wonder if
• 35:03
  Speaker 7: some of this is driven by him knowing how fragile
• 35:05
  Speaker 7: the situation is now for him that it's much easier
• 35:08
  Speaker 7: to start a word than get out of the war,
• 35:10
  Speaker 7: which is what everybody was saying when it happened. But
• 35:12
  Speaker 7: now it's reality for him, and it should have always
• 35:14
  Speaker 7: been reality for him. But by every minute, this could
• 35:17
  Speaker 7: turn into a catastrophe, and especially especially when you're posting
• 35:22
  Speaker 7: as negotiations in these insane rhetorical flourishes that people don't
• 35:27
  Speaker 7: know whether they're supposed to take seriously or not, which
• 35:29
  Speaker 7: is his point. So he just takes that one step further.
• 35:33
  Speaker 7: He wants people to take him seriously. Like you said,
• 35:36
  Speaker 7: this is consequential rhetoric. That's what that's the point of
• 35:39
  Speaker 7: the rhetoric from his perspective. Yeah, so what does that
• 35:42
  Speaker 7: mean long term? It's like I was thinking it this morning.
• 35:45
  Speaker 7: He's trying to write the history as he goes. So,
• 35:47
  Speaker 7: like he gets this beautiful ceasefire Friday, he bullies the
• 35:52
  Speaker 7: Iranians into you know, they have no cards. Everything's good,
• 35:55
  Speaker 7: straight's open. They've basically capitulated. He's doing public relations for history. Yeah,
• 36:03
  Speaker 7: in real time.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: And by doing so, let's put a twelve up on
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: the screen, because this is a true to Parsi's analysis,
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: which I think really speaks to what Emily was just
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: saying there. In doing so, with all of his bluster,
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: he is actually undercutting the negotiations that he himself desperately
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: wants to succeed.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: So what doctor Parsi says here is.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: To understand how Trump is undermining his own diplomacy by
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: quickly declaring victory and trying to humiliate a run whenever
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: Tehran takes a d escalatory step. It's instructive to remember
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: what happened when Iran and the GCC had negotiated new
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: guard rails for the war. That was early on, when
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: there were some strikes against the GCC. There was a
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: moment where it appeared there was going to a new
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: agreement between the GCC member states and Iran. Okay, we're
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: not going to attack each other, and then Trump undercut
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: that and said, oh, Lauran's surrendering and his triumphalist rhetoric
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: humiliated them, and they walked away. So what Treta goes
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: on to say is, in short, iron in the GCC,
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: we're in the process of agreeing to a deal that
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: would see the end of Iranian attacks GCC as long
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: as their territory ceas being used for attacks on Iran.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: Tehran would first message steps in that direction, followed by
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: GCC reciprocity, But before the GCC got a chance to respond,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: Trump declared victory on true social insulted and humiliated Iran,
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: even issued further threats of complete destruction. On top of that,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: US Israel also attacked a water desalination plant at Keshum Island.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: Needless to say, this sabotage the sensitive de escalation talks
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: and a promising opening was destroyed. Trump's need for the
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: optics of victory Trump's what should be far more important
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: in advancing US interests by ending this warn reaching a
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: longer term deal with Tehran. It appears the same phenomenon
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: occurred in the past few days when the Iranians, in
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: a very vague tweet, declared the strait is open as
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: a de escalatory step in their terminology has never been closed,
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: though Tehran is only determining who can pass and who
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: cannot while charging tolls. Trump failed to reciprocate, and instead
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: could not resist the temptation and Claire victory and insult
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: the Iranians. What was designed to become the beginning of
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: a mutual off was instead turned by Trump into an
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: escalatory ladder, resulting in additional threats by him this morning
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: to knock out every single power plant, every single bridge
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: in Iran. Trump's lack of discipline and focus and his
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: infantile prioritization of optics of a reality are becoming significant
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: obstacles to him achieving his own goals exiting the war
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: and striking a strong deal with Tehran. This is not
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: art of the deal, it's art of the self sabotage.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: So whenever there's sort of a tentative step taken by
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: Tehran in the direction of Okay, let's deescalate, let's get
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: back to the table, or let's have some sort of
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: step where rather than ripe up the escalatory ladder, let's
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: take a step back. Trump has to go in and
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: tweet something insane and threaten them more and humiliate them, declare,
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: oh my god, see they're surrendering blah blah blah, And
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: so of course they're like, Okay, we'll screw you.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: We're going to go right back to it.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: And that's kind of where we find ourselves now, where
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: I think it was looking very plausible, especially with the
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: sort of ceasefire in Lebanon that gave Ron enough cover.
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: They're negotiators who are under a lot of pressure, by
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: the way from the IRGC to not come to some
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: sort of deal at this point. That gave them enough
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: cover to say basically like, look, this was our demand.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: They met our demand to get back to the negotiating table.
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: And now that is all very much up in the
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: air and very much in doubt, right, And.
• 39:20
  Speaker 7: The point that doctor Parsley makes about optics versus reality
• 39:23
  Speaker 7: is so interesting to me. And I'm not trying to
• 39:24
  Speaker 7: armchair psychologize Trump, and I don't think you actually have
• 39:27
  Speaker 7: to to understand.
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: I mean, he puts this in art of the deal.
• 39:30
  Speaker 7: He believes that optics are and we all know this
• 39:33
  Speaker 7: is true, but like he looks at optics in reality
• 39:35
  Speaker 7: as being word together that what you project optically is
• 39:41
  Speaker 7: more likely to become reality if.
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: You project it.
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 39:45
  Speaker 7: Way. But at the same time, then he's doing the
• 39:48
  Speaker 7: wipeout civilization tweets, right, So it's it's what he's putting
• 39:51
  Speaker 7: out is a huge part of an insight into his mind.
• 39:55
  Speaker 7: It's not a clear insight into his mind, but he's
• 39:57
  Speaker 7: obviously trying to project victory. He immediately is after the
• 40:02
  Speaker 7: words started, said we had one. He says it constantly.
• 40:05
  Speaker 7: He said it would be four to five weeks. Then
• 40:07
  Speaker 7: he's like, oh, sixty eight weeks. First it was a
• 40:09
  Speaker 7: couple of days. He keeps going, and it's I think
• 40:13
  Speaker 7: because he has to keep moving his own goalposts. But
• 40:16
  Speaker 7: he's still trying to project victory because he thinks that
• 40:20
  Speaker 7: gets him closer to it, and he thinks that it
• 40:23
  Speaker 7: the public relations are the substance that you can manifest
• 40:29
  Speaker 7: the substance with your public relations.
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and that only goes so far. I mean, it's
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: not ridiculous.
• 40:35
  Speaker 7: There are obviously times that's there's some merit to that,
• 40:39
  Speaker 7: but obviously not right now.
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: No, I think it's worked for him in most of
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: his life, you know, I think this is the lesson
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: he's learned with from his life. I one of the
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: most revealing things that I saw reported is when Tucker
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: Carlson was expressing concerns to him. He was like, don't
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: worry To'll be fine. And Tucker was like, well, how
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: do you know that? And Trump goes because it always is,
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: it always is, it always is. But you get to
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: a point like you can't you know, you can't envision
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: your way or bs your way, or propagandize your way
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: into millions more barrels of oil flowing through the strait
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: of Hoboose. At some point there is a hard reality.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: And I think the Iranians also, you know, we came
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: in totally arrogant, did not think about their perspective at all,
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: did not plan for, Okay, what will their response be,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: did not assume any level of strategic planning or rationality
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: on their part, overestimated our own capabilities, underestimated the strength
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: of their government, and how resilient it would ultimately be,
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: how much of these actions would actually strengthen the Iranian government. Meanwhile,
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: they've been studying us closely. All you need to do
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: is look at the like very culturally into lego propaganda
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: videos to know that they understand, they understand the way
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: the American people think. They understand the way that Trump thinks,
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: the way he operates. And so when he throws out
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: all of these insane praisbee at all and we're going
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: to destroy your civilization and whatever it reads, I think
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: more desperate than it does actually threatening, because at this
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: point we've seen the possibilities of you know, huge destruction
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: from the US military, but also the limitations. And one
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: of those limitations is certainly political to put a thirteen
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: up on the screen. You know, new polling about the
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: lack of support for this war. So you've got sixty
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: one percent of US adults who oppose any further military
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: action in Iran, including seventy four percent of Americans under thirty.
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: Twenty three percent support considering all options, including ground forces,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: and sixteen percent back air strikes only. So if you're
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: talking about, you know, if we go back to war,
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: you know, total war with Iran. What is very likely
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: to happen next would be some sort of ground invasion
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: because we've seen the limits of air strikes only that's
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: not going to get Trump to whatever victory narrative he
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: needs to be able to sell. And so if you're
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: talking about support for ground forces less than I mean,
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: that's smaller than the MAGA base twenty three percent who
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: are open to ground forces. So the political landscape is
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: also a huge limiting factor for him, especially as gas
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: prices continue to be a problem. This morning, you know,
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: oil has gone back up because of all of this
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: mess and the fact that the straightform is actually now
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: completely closed in a way that it actually wasn't before.
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: Stock market futures are down, all of that. So you know,
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: those are metrics he pays attention to and continue to
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: put pressure on him to find some way to bring
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: this mess to an end.
• 43:33
  Speaker 7: Yeah, and it's so similar to again what was happening
• 43:35
  Speaker 7: with the tariffs last year, where he's trying to just
• 43:37
  Speaker 7: will reality into existence rhetorically and for the public now
• 43:43
  Speaker 7: what they've heard is so like, it's your point about
• 43:46
  Speaker 7: it coming across as desperate. That's actually what I felt
• 43:48
  Speaker 7: like on Friday, when he put out that aggressively victorious
• 43:53
  Speaker 7: post that we keep referencing, it was so it was
• 43:58
  Speaker 7: so aggressively victoria that it seemed like something was deeply wrong. Yeah,
• 44:04
  Speaker 7: because it seemed like he was trying to make something better,
• 44:08
  Speaker 7: that he was trying to what's the right word he
• 44:11
  Speaker 7: was trying to.
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: I don't know the right word is here.
• 44:15
  Speaker 7: He was trying to make something something really bad look
• 44:19
  Speaker 7: really good, which he always tries to do, but in
• 44:22
  Speaker 7: this case, it was just glaring. And I think that's
• 44:25
  Speaker 7: what turned out to happen over the weekend, unfortunately, because
• 44:29
  Speaker 7: obviously the Iranians went right back by the end of
• 44:32
  Speaker 7: the day. So if you're the American publican, you're watching
• 44:35
  Speaker 7: this and you hear it's going to be over quickly
• 44:37
  Speaker 7: minimal casualties, Well we have thirteen dead Americans mini injuries.
• 44:41
  Speaker 7: We are in week eight if I'm counting correctly, started
• 44:45
  Speaker 7: February twenty eighth. It's now April twentieth, so coming up
• 44:48
  Speaker 7: on two months. And what you've heard the President say
• 44:51
  Speaker 7: is that we've won. You've heard him say it's going
• 44:53
  Speaker 7: to take a few more weeks to win. You've heard
• 44:55
  Speaker 7: him say, we just need to keep doing this for
• 44:57
  Speaker 7: another couple of weeks. And you've heard him that weeks ago,
• 45:00
  Speaker 7: by the way, Yeah, exactly. And so even if you
• 45:03
  Speaker 7: were supportive of this at the beginning, your patients might
• 45:07
  Speaker 7: be running thin. And that's even more disastrous for Trump
• 45:10
  Speaker 7: as gas prices go up here in the US, and
• 45:12
  Speaker 7: then the higher gas prices start to affect the cost
• 45:14
  Speaker 7: of everything everything.
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: We haven't even seen the worst of that, like at all.
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go ahead and move to what the Israelis
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: are up to in all of this, because obviously a
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: very important factor for better and mostly for worse is
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: what the Israelis are thinking and the way that they
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: definitely do not want the war to be over right now.
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: So Trump last week was able to secure this sort
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: of ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. This was one of
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: the Iranian demands. They said, we are not leaving Lebanon behind.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: If we're going to come back to the negotiating table.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: The bombing, the destruction Lebanon has to stop. So that
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: was one of the things that looked promising was Trump
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: was able to secure this agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Okay,
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: we're going to I think the words that he originally
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: used was they're going to be more low key. So
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: I think that was actually kind of the appropriate terminology
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: because we could be one up on the screen. Almost
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: immediately after this quote unquote ceasefire is announced and Trump
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: actually posted on true social that Israel is quote prohibited
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: from bombing Lebanon. Israel then went ahead and launched a
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: drones strike in south Lebanon, killing someone on a motorcycle.
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: This is the Al Jazeera posting, Israeli drones strike kills
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: one in Lebanon, and Dave DeCamp, who's a great you know,
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: libertarian thinker, anti war thinker, definitely someone who's worth a
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: follow in any case. Al Jazeera says, the civil defense
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: in southern Lebanon is told Al Jazeera that one person
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: was killed when Israeli dron targeted motorcycle. So almost as
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: soon as Trump says this is prohibited, Israel goes ahead
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: and continues with, you know, their murder campaign in Lebanon.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: Let's go and put B two up on the screen.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: You can see some of the images of the bombardment
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: in Lebanon. I mean you've seen, I mean this level
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: of destruction is just really truly unbelievable. Just imagine, just
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: imagine this is your home, Imagine this is your neighborhood.
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: You're going to tell me.
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: These are all hesbe Lah targets that this was all
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: chock full of Heswel no, we know it's not. And
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: in fact, if we can put the Barack Reviede tweet
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: up on the screen, I think it's worth you. Look,
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: Barock Reviede is himself former IDF. You know, I think
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: he's been fairly sympathetic to the Israeli perspective, and he
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: says here The idea of continues to destroy buildings and
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: villages in southern Lebanon during the ceasefire. Commanders in the
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: army testified in a conversation with at Yanni V. Koub
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: that systematic destruction of civilian buildings is being carried out
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: in villages where the forces operate, including near the border
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: with Israel. According to the commander, civilian contractors received daily
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: pay or are compensated based on the number of buildings destroyed,
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: similar to what happened in the Gaza Strip. That activity
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: is characterized by the widespread demolition of homes, public buildings,
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: and even educational institutions in the IDF. This policy is
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: referred to as the money plow. And this is from
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: the Hebrew language version of Haretz. So this is what's
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: going on right now during the ceasefire, the quote unquote
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: money plow. And he really started he started going back
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: and forth with some people on Twitter over the vote
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: that happened in the Senate last week to block the
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: shipment of these armored bulldozers to Israel. This was something
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: that was led by Bernie Sanders. Forty Democrats voted to
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: block those bulldozers, you know, being sent to Israel, and
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: you know Mark Dubowitz in particular, who was like, oh,
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: you're putting you know, Israeli civilians at rice blah blah blah.
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: And Barackraviede really went in and said, this is what
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: these this is what these bulldozers are actually used for.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: And this is one perfect example of what they're doing,
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: which is total and complete destruction and not of you know,
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: targeted military infrastructure. No, this is mass raising and demolition
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: of entire villages. And you know, the money plow cash
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: for destruction.
• 49:07
  Speaker 7: And Trump also told Barack Revie they were on the
• 49:10
  Speaker 7: phone yesterday and no surprise quote. The concept of the
• 49:13
  Speaker 7: deal is done. I think we have a very good
• 49:16
  Speaker 7: chance to get it completed. So we're back to concepts
• 49:18
  Speaker 7: of a plan, like almost.
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: Exactly a healthcare plan.
• 49:23
  Speaker 7: Go concepts of a plan can never go wrong. I mean,
• 49:27
  Speaker 7: it's just completely this is I was too young during
• 49:31
  Speaker 7: the Iraq War to be like following the daily news.
• 49:35
  Speaker 7: It's remarkable to have the benefit of hindsight in a
• 49:39
  Speaker 7: rock and watch so many of the same errors play
• 49:45
  Speaker 7: out in real time while people are calling it out
• 49:48
  Speaker 7: in real time. And that's one of the differences with Iraq, obviously,
• 49:51
  Speaker 7: is that the country there were some really brave, lone
• 49:53
  Speaker 7: voices who were warning and presciently.
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: You know Barbara Lee.
• 49:59
  Speaker 7: If you go back and look at what Barbara Lee
• 50:00
  Speaker 7: said when she did not vote for the war, I
• 50:02
  Speaker 7: mean that aged really well in very specific ways. But
• 50:06
  Speaker 7: at the time everyone was consolidating around the Bush administration,
• 50:10
  Speaker 7: or support was consolidating around the Bush administration. This time
• 50:13
  Speaker 7: you're watching people say in real time, this is a mistake.
• 50:17
  Speaker 7: Here's why it's a mistake, and then within forty eight
• 50:19
  Speaker 7: hours abundant evidence of that playing out. Yeah, I mean,
• 50:23
  Speaker 7: it's really remarkable.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: Well, in Israel is like a toddler, always trying to
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: test the limits of what they can get away with,
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: you know. And so when Trump comes out and says
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: any sort of firing on Lebanon is prohibited, prohibited, right,
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: says a very clear perhaps not like you can do
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit of you know, continue, a little bit
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: of drone strike, a little bit of bulldozing entire villages,
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: no prohibited. And then Israel instantly is like, well, let
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: me see, let me see what I can get away with.
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: And look Trump, like Biden before them, it's like, basically
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: you can get away with whatever, apparently, And again very
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: important to keep in mind, there is zero doubt that
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: net Yahou in the Israeli public want to go back
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: to war because currently, if it ends how it is
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: right now, utter disaster for Israel, utter disaster for net
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: Nyahu and his political prospects. He's again had his like
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: trial delayed because they're still at war, because they're always
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: at war, because that's his only strategy forever doing anything
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: is one war bombing campaign away from you know, total
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: peace and victory, et cetera, et cetera. So they will
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: continue to try to undermine in any way they can.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: And what we saw from the early decision to go
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: to war is that Trump really believes them, He really trusts.
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: He trusted their.
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: Intel and their military assessment over our own military assessment.
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: So what's why it's very important to keep our eye
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: on that. At the same time, I wanted to highlight
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: this became a major scandal for the Israelis. Put this
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: image up on the screen B three of this statue
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: of Jesus that is being desecrated. Here you can see
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: an IDF soldier has toppled this statue it's on then
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: and then smashing the head of Jesus with a mallet.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: And then this gets posted, which shows you again they
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: you know, they see this as this is part of
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: what we're here for. This, you know, sparked massive backlash.
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: Of course, it's what super viral, and we got a
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: response from the IDF. First of all, I mean, most
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: important thing here is they verified it. Because I will say,
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: when I saw this, I was like, is this real
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: or is this a because it's too.
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: Much on the nose, right, So no, they verified this.
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: This is real.
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: This is an actual thing that happened. This is the
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: IDF's response, and that Yahoo put out a response himself.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: But in any case, they said, following the completion of
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: an initial examination regarding a photograph published earlier today of
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: an idea of soldier harming a Christian symbol, it was
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: determined the photograph de picks an idea of soldier operating
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: in southern Lebanon. The IDF used the incident with great
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: severity and emphasizes the soldier's conduct is wholly inconsistent with
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: the values expected of its troops.
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: Oh really is it.
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: The incident is being investigated by the Northern Command, is
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: currently being addressed through the chain of command. A perfect
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: measure will be taken against those involved in coordans with
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: the findings. Furthermore, the IDF is working to assist the
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: community in restoring the statue to its place. The IDEF
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: is operating to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure established by Hesbel
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: and so other than Lebanon has no intention of harming
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: civilian infrastructure, including religious buildings or religious symbols. Square that
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: last part with the reporting from Haretz, you know, relayed
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: by baroque revide about the way that they are doing
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: the money plow and destroying entire villages, not just quote
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: unquote military infrastructure. And then of course, you know throughout
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: the campaign, bombing campaign in Gaza, genocide and Gaza, obviously
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: they were attacking churches, they were attacking so many mosques,
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: and Benjamin Netanyahu had the goal to come out and say, oh,
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: Israel respects religious freedom, and you know, we believe in
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: everybody's ability to worship how they want. It's just nonsense
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: when you look at their overall behavior. It's just this
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: one sparked a backlash that was strong enough. And because
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: it was Christian and not Muslim, and they felt this
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: administration might be sensitive to it, they had to least
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: say something.
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: They pretend like they care.
• 53:59
  Speaker 7: Yeah, and the Christian perspective on this, you know what,
• 54:03
  Speaker 7: this can't undo them apologizing and investigating it. I mean,
• 54:06
  Speaker 7: there's a lot of can undo, but it's not going
• 54:08
  Speaker 7: to bring back dead Christians in Lebanon after all of
• 54:11
  Speaker 7: this is done. And when you have public opinion tanking
• 54:15
  Speaker 7: with regard to Israel in the United States, particularly on
• 54:19
  Speaker 7: the right, you can't undo what happened in that picture
• 54:23
  Speaker 7: in their minds. You know, you can apologize, you can
• 54:25
  Speaker 7: investigate it, but obviously here you have a soldier in
• 54:28
  Speaker 7: the ideaf who not only yanked Christ off the cross,
• 54:31
  Speaker 7: it appears, or maybe that was done by munitions something
• 54:35
  Speaker 7: to that extent. But you then have someone taking a
• 54:37
  Speaker 7: sledgehammer to the face of Christ, so that image won't
• 54:44
  Speaker 7: go away.
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: You can investigate it, you can apologize, and I'm glad
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: by the way.
• 54:47
  Speaker 7: I think it actually is important that nets Yahu and
• 54:50
  Speaker 7: the government is investigating it and that they have apologized
• 54:53
  Speaker 7: for it. I think they apologized for it because they're
• 54:56
  Speaker 7: very concerned about public support in the United States cratering,
• 54:59
  Speaker 7: and they're doing everything in their power to make that
• 55:01
  Speaker 7: problem worse by the day. And I don't even think
• 55:04
  Speaker 7: they're intentionally trying to make it worse. I think they're
• 55:06
  Speaker 7: actually trying to rescue it, and they're going about it
• 55:08
  Speaker 7: in all the wrong ways. So this is the worst
• 55:11
  Speaker 7: possible image to come out. And it's not just a symbol.
• 55:16
  Speaker 7: It's a symbol of something. It's not just a symbol
• 55:17
  Speaker 7: of nothing. It's a symbol of something real, which is
• 55:19
  Speaker 7: that Christians are being killed in Lebanon, and the American
• 55:21
  Speaker 7: media barely ever talks about it. Obviously, lots of people
• 55:24
  Speaker 7: are being killed in Muslim in Lebanon, including many Muslims.
• 55:28
  Speaker 7: So people should care about that period. But you know,
• 55:31
  Speaker 7: it's it's a very heavily Christian country. So Christians are
• 55:35
  Speaker 7: now hearing from voices in the media who are anti
• 55:38
  Speaker 7: war about something that I don't think a lot of
• 55:40
  Speaker 7: Christians understood was happening, especially that Christian conservatives understood what
• 55:44
  Speaker 7: was happening in places like Iraq and in the course
• 55:49
  Speaker 7: of the war on Terror. And so this picture could
• 55:51
  Speaker 7: not possibly have come out at a worse time, and
• 55:53
  Speaker 7: it could not possibly be something that's that's more profound
• 56:00
  Speaker 7: in the moral conscious of a lot of Americans who
• 56:03
  Speaker 7: are now reevaluating our foreign policy.
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Israel counts basically on Americans to be
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: Islamophobic and for us to not pay attention to the
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: fact that it's also Christians who are under attack and
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: assault by Israel and having their symbols and their lives
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: taken by Israel.
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: We know that's part of their strategies, basically.
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: Like to spark Islamophobia and hope that that allows, you know, people,
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: allows them to get away with the whoors and the
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: crimes and continue the support from within the US. And
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: so that's why they see this as a particular problem
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: because they're like, oh, we don't think we can convince
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: Americans that these like Christians and their symbols are scary
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: and weird. You know, it will hit closer to home,
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: and so that's why it's an issue. But you know,
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: in terms of their oh orur respect for religious liberty
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: and tolerance and our Western values blah blah blah. I mean,
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: this is the same government that was warning Christians and
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: others in the region not to not to hide Shia.
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: Muslims, you know.
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're just completely blatant about how they want
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: to completely ethnically cleanse and eliminate any threat from any
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: Muslims that are in this part of southern Lebanon. So meanwhile, though,
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: let's go and put be four up on the screen.
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: Trump going out of his way even after Israel, you know,
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: immediately defies the prohibition on doing anything in Lebanon. He says,
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: whether people like Israel or not, they have proven to
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: be a great ally of the United States of America.
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: Emily.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: They're courageous, bold, loyal, and smart, and unlike others, they've
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: shown their true colors. In a moment of conflict and stress,
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: Israel fights hard and knows how to win.
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: Who wrote that for him?
• 57:42
  Speaker 7: I mean, he doesn't need anybody to write it for him,
• 57:44
  Speaker 7: but it almost reads like somebody trying to put Trump's
• 57:47
  Speaker 7: voice into it.
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: It's so there's a lot of suspects for who might
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: have written this, you know, pro Israel post within this administration.
• 57:55
  Speaker 7: Again, he doesn't need anybody to write that for him.
• 57:58
  Speaker 7: He has proven that he is sincerely with nets and
• 58:02
  Speaker 7: Yahoo and Lindsey Graham for this cause, He's proven that
• 58:05
  Speaker 7: over and over again. Now he's a little bit more
• 58:07
  Speaker 7: willing to be publicly.
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: Like Joust, little public pushback. Yeah, the pro prohibition tweet, Yeah, totally.
• 58:18
  Speaker 7: Yes, the prohibition tweet and all caps that was just
• 58:20
  Speaker 7: about offensive operations, which you can read between lines on that.
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: As soon as it came out.
• 58:24
  Speaker 7: It was still I think, kind of a landmark type
• 58:26
  Speaker 7: of thing for US president to say, but it was Trump.
• 58:29
  Speaker 7: So again, he's trying to say something to create a
• 58:32
  Speaker 7: reality that's not always like replicated on the ground. And yeah,
• 58:39
  Speaker 7: it's of course, whenever you see these these aggressive Trump posts,
• 58:43
  Speaker 7: you know something else is happening under the surface because
• 58:45
  Speaker 7: he's trying to project a public relations image against something else.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and lastly, let's take a look at the Western
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: values of our great, ally and wonderful friend Israel that
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: knows how to fight and how to win. This is
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: this reporting has been building for some.
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: Re the tongue.
• 59:04
  Speaker 7: By the way, Christmas, what does America scirites ally that
• 59:06
  Speaker 7: knows how to fight and knows how to win?
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: You just rattled it off.
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: It's their new name. Yeah, that's how I feel about them,
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: all right. So this reporting has been building for a while,
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: but it's one of those things that's too horrible to
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: really like. When you first hear it, you're like, I
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: can't wrap my head around this being a real thing.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: But at this point it's fairly undeniable. You have instances,
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: documented instances of Israeli's using dogs to rape Palestinian inmates.
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen.
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: This is from Al Jazeerra. Read the subheads here. They
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: say they came and took one of the other men.
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: They beat him.
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: After they beat him, they forced him to the ground
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: on his belly. They tied his hands and tied his feet.
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: They were about eight or nine soldiers. They stripped him
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: of his underpants, a captain came and sprayed something on
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: his backside.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: There was a dog there. They unleashed the dog on him.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: The dog raped the young man. It raped him, literally
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: speaking rape.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: So this is I don't even know, it's it horrifies
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: me that there's a mind that could come up with
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: something so disgusting and depraved. But you know, this is
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: this is the reality, and it's one of those things
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: where you know, you you literally couldn't make up this
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: level of evil. And this was in uh, you know,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: a prison that was that's known for torture. This is
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: the prison that was the scene of the right to
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: Rape protest where there were there's video of idea of
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: soldiers surrounding Palestinian and sort of shielding the video, but
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: that Palestinian ended up with horrific injuries consistent with his
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: account of being raped with a metal rod.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: And you know, this is the type of this is the.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: Type of thing that goes on here, and because it's
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: predominantly Muslims, it gets very little attention here in the US.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: It gets very little pushedback.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: We haven't had Yahoo coming out and apologizing the idea
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: of coming out and apologizing, even though the reporting has
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: built to a point where it's undeniable at this point.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 7: Well, I was gonna say, I mean, I think some
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 7: of it is so horrific that the average American doesn't
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 7: believe it.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: Or doesn't want to believe it. Yeah, I understand that.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 7: Yeah, And I think American media is I mean, I
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 7: don't know, cryslal, I'm curre's what you think of this.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 7: I think American media is hesitant to even get into it.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 7: And that's part of the way these things metastasize and
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 7: happen is that when you when you create this Manichean
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 7: dichotomy that ostracizes everybody who disagrees with you as necessarily
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 7: anti semitic, you're categorizing all of your critics as anti Semitic.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: Then this is what happens internally.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 7: It creates a really dangerous culture because all of your
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 7: critics have been labeled as bad people and bigots, and
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 7: so it just I mean, this has been a problem
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 7: for a long time. But this is just one example
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 7: of like, how could something in a country with these
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 7: surportedly Western values that is an ally of the United States,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 7: how could something sort of praved happen? You have a
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 7: mountain of reporting in the year twenty twenty six, people
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 7: the mind reels.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: And I really think it's because.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 6: It's a.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 7: Culture that just has purged dissenters as the anti Semites
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 7: or self hating Jews or anything of the like, and
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 7: that creates a really, really dangerous environment.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: It built up all these rationalizations of oh, you know
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: this is propaganda. Can you know Israel's has all these
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: enemies and they're always looking to get them and lie
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: about them and blood libel, etc. And so you know,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: for people who are still trying to run cover for Israel,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: you just I think they just either don't care or
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: just assume that, oh, it must be a lie.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: And then you know what its core.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: I think there's the real evil is this supremacist ideology
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: that effectively says, because we're the good guys and they're
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: the bad guys, anything we do, anything we do is
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: justified in that fight. That's really the core of you
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: know what, is a genuinely evil ideology which ends in
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: horrors like this and all sorts of other cours.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: Besides