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Will we reach peak oil? · Stuff You Should Know

0:01
Speaker 1: Welcome to you Stuff you should Know from House Stuff
0:04
Speaker 1: Works dot com. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. I'm
0:14
Speaker 1: Josh Clark, There's Charles W. Chuck Bryant, and this is
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Speaker 1: stuff you should know the podcast. And it's election day.
0:22
Speaker 1: We didn't mention that before. Oh yeah, you know, it's
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Speaker 1: election day. I'm not sure when this is gonna come out.
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Speaker 1: I can tell you exactly it's gonna come out. How
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Speaker 1: do we know about this one? Well, it'll come out
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Speaker 1: either the twenties, seventh or twenty nine of November. Yeah, great,
0:39
Speaker 1: what a great time to talk about pek oil. Yeah,
0:42
Speaker 1: the holiday season. Everybody's still digesting Thanksgiving dinner. Um, it's
0:48
Speaker 1: a little chilly out. It's what's every It's what everyone's
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Speaker 1: thinking about right now when football and sports and stuff
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Speaker 1: like that in fall colors. Let's talk about oil instead.
1:00
Speaker 1: When will the world's oil production be outstripped by demand irrevocably?
1:08
Speaker 1: That's right, that's what peak oil is. That's what we're
1:10
Speaker 1: talking about. Before we get started, I need to just
1:12
Speaker 1: clear something up. Peak oil is a definite thing. So
1:16
Speaker 1: where's the controversy when it's gonna happen, When it's gonna happen,
1:21
Speaker 1: and exactly what will happen after it? Help because reading
1:25
Speaker 1: this I was a little confused. It seemed like some
1:27
Speaker 1: people were like denying that it was going to happen
1:28
Speaker 1: at all or something. Yeah, we got run out of
1:31
Speaker 1: oil at some point. So if you talk to any
1:34
Speaker 1: peak oil adherent there's there's definitely some that are a
1:36
Speaker 1: little more the sky is following them, and I think
1:42
Speaker 1: they probably represent the minority, especially now. But if you
1:45
Speaker 1: went back to two when I wrote this, remember Matt Baker, Yes,
1:51
Speaker 1: Matt Baker, he used to work here. He was a developer.
1:54
Speaker 1: He got me into this, and he would go to
1:57
Speaker 1: like yeah, yeah, Matt, Yeah, he would go like meetings
2:00
Speaker 1: and like about the future without oil and like I
2:03
Speaker 1: mean like he was big time into it. And at
2:06
Speaker 1: that time, there are a lot of like very smart
2:08
Speaker 1: people talking very loudly saying like, dudes, we may have
2:12
Speaker 1: already hit peak oil and we need to start doing
2:15
Speaker 1: something about it or else, like we're really in really
2:17
Speaker 1: big trouble. Those those voices have quieted down quite a
2:21
Speaker 1: bit due to some developments in the last couple of years.
2:23
Speaker 1: It's almost kind of like a throwback. There's a lot
2:28
Speaker 1: of stuff happening. But um, for the most part, there
2:32
Speaker 1: is agreement that we will one day hit peak oil.
2:35
Speaker 1: And the definition of peak oil is now when we
2:37
Speaker 1: run out of oil, but when our oil production right
2:41
Speaker 1: like removing it from the ground, it can no longer
2:44
Speaker 1: keep up with demand. The whole reason that this will
2:48
Speaker 1: probably happen is because oil is a very finite resource, right, yes,
2:53
Speaker 1: and we are not treating it as such. No, So
2:55
Speaker 1: those two things combined mean that we're gonna gonna run
2:57
Speaker 1: out at some point. But even if we did treat it,
3:00
Speaker 1: like even if we did conserve our oil, but we
3:03
Speaker 1: didn't bring any other type of energy into it, it's
3:07
Speaker 1: it's a finite resource. Like it takes ten million years
3:10
Speaker 1: for um, these these fossil fuels at least to be
3:15
Speaker 1: produced to turn into crude oil. Um. The reason we
3:18
Speaker 1: have so much of it is because there was a
3:19
Speaker 1: massive die out of large dinosaurs. Now see I read
3:24
Speaker 1: that the dinosaurs had very little to do with it,
3:27
Speaker 1: and then it was like other, uh, living creatures. Well,
3:31
Speaker 1: you tell me who said that that's that's that's a
3:34
Speaker 1: good look it up. Some guy a lot smarter than me. Okay,
3:37
Speaker 1: So but regardless, regardless Um. The dinosaurs may or may
3:42
Speaker 1: not have had something to do with it. But things
3:44
Speaker 1: that lived at least ten million years ago and whose
3:47
Speaker 1: corpses were subject to these specific geological processes form oil.
3:52
Speaker 1: And there's only a very limited amount of it. It
3:55
Speaker 1: is the definition of a non renewable resource petroleum. We're
3:58
Speaker 1: going to run out of it event filling. But like
4:01
Speaker 1: you were asking, like when that happens, and what happens
4:05
Speaker 1: when we reach that point. That's what the debate over
4:09
Speaker 1: peak oil is. Because some people think we may never
4:12
Speaker 1: hit peak oil. Um, we may. We may come up
4:16
Speaker 1: with great alternative energy on the gaps as it were, right, um,
4:19
Speaker 1: and and like maybe we'll just leave oil behind, will
4:23
Speaker 1: never go back and like use up the whole world's
4:25
Speaker 1: apply because something else will come along or will master
4:28
Speaker 1: wind technology and we'll be fine. But for the most part,
4:32
Speaker 1: people agree that we will hit this point of peak oil,
4:35
Speaker 1: which again isn't running out of oil, it's where production
4:39
Speaker 1: plateaus and starts to decline, demand keeps increasing. Yes, I
4:44
Speaker 1: think you have a big problem there. If people don't
4:46
Speaker 1: get that by now, well no, if you the third time,
4:48
Speaker 1: if you talk to I can tell you that people
4:50
Speaker 1: who are peak oil adherents are very very satisfied with
4:54
Speaker 1: us right now because we pointed that out three times,
4:57
Speaker 1: because it's a big, big misconcept. Wait, is that him
5:00
Speaker 1: now he's coming in here to give us a bat
5:02
Speaker 1: on the back? I guess who could that be? King
5:06
Speaker 1: Hibbert Hubbert? He's dead? Probably, well, I believe, so all right,
5:10
Speaker 1: let's get it. Mean he was working in the fifties,
5:12
Speaker 1: So I guess we kind of we laid out while
5:15
Speaker 1: we're talking about but it is all based on M.
5:18
Speaker 1: King Hubbert's Hubbart curve. That's right. Do we need to
5:22
Speaker 1: talk about the VP reporter? Is that old news? Well
5:25
Speaker 1: they do that every year. Okay, so what does the
5:28
Speaker 1: recent one say? Do you know? Well, this is one
5:30
Speaker 1: of the recent developments. So this BPU Statistical Review of
5:34
Speaker 1: World Energy um BP compiles all of this energy information
5:39
Speaker 1: every year and it's a huge, awesome PDF of like
5:43
Speaker 1: energy information and um In two thousand eight they published
5:49
Speaker 1: that they that we have one point or one thousand,
5:52
Speaker 1: two d and thirty eight billion barrels of oil improved reserves.
5:56
Speaker 1: That's one point to trillion barrels of oil improved reserves. Now,
6:00
Speaker 1: proved reserve doesn't mean that like you already have it
6:03
Speaker 1: in a barrel. It means that some seismologists has done
6:08
Speaker 1: a geological survey of an area and said, yeah, there's
6:12
Speaker 1: oil there and it has a ninety percent chance of
6:14
Speaker 1: being easily extractable. Okay, and you probably have this many
6:20
Speaker 1: barrels in this reserve. That's a proven reserve, right, there's
6:24
Speaker 1: also probably stuff that we haven't found out there yet.
6:27
Speaker 1: That's that adds to the whole oil base. But BP
6:32
Speaker 1: set in two thousand eight that we have one point
6:34
Speaker 1: two trillion barrels of oil. In two twelve they said
6:37
Speaker 1: that we have one point six trillion. So we added
6:41
Speaker 1: four hundred billion barrels of oil in four years. That's
6:47
Speaker 1: a that's a that was a huge thing that quieted
6:49
Speaker 1: everybody down. Okay, well that's good. Yeah, UM could be
6:53
Speaker 1: a little hinky because, um, the people giving up this
6:57
Speaker 1: information um get you know, they get money and funding
7:04
Speaker 1: based on things like this. Yeah, if you remember, and
7:07
Speaker 1: they're not um, they're not checking their work as it were, either.
7:12
Speaker 1: So what you have is, um, you're not being audited,
7:15
Speaker 1: and if you lie about your numbers, you might get
7:17
Speaker 1: more funding. So a lot of people say, wait a minute,
7:19
Speaker 1: shouldn't trust reports like this there and yeah, there's for
7:23
Speaker 1: every for every bit of information or data, there's basically
7:27
Speaker 1: two ways to look at it. It's either truthful or
7:29
Speaker 1: here's all the reasons why it's probably not truthful. I
7:32
Speaker 1: know this is one of those things. Is just the
7:33
Speaker 1: point counterpoint just goes on and on and on. Yeah,
7:36
Speaker 1: And the reason why is because we have no idea
7:38
Speaker 1: how much oil is left on earth, Like, we can't say,
7:41
Speaker 1: and like the people who supposedly do know have reason
7:46
Speaker 1: to not be truthful about it, right or to exaggerate it.
7:49
Speaker 1: Even so, Um, the BP Statistical Review is very very
7:53
Speaker 1: widely respected. It's also criticized for that reason that you
7:57
Speaker 1: just said. But um, the the the whole idea behind
8:02
Speaker 1: this is what we were is based on what the
8:05
Speaker 1: guy who we were talking about, M. King Hubbard, came
8:07
Speaker 1: up with in the nineteen fifties, which is called the
8:10
Speaker 1: Hubbard curve. Right. Yeah, and this just makes sense to me.
8:13
Speaker 1: I don't know why it took this guy to come
8:15
Speaker 1: up with this, um, but it basically says, you know,
8:18
Speaker 1: what oil reserves are gonna follow, what trajectory, Um, you're
8:22
Speaker 1: gonna tap it and you're gonna pump oil out and
8:25
Speaker 1: after that production is gonna plateau and then it's gonna decline. Yeah,
8:29
Speaker 1: it took some smart guy to figure that out. Yeah,
8:32
Speaker 1: and I feel where you're coming, and I think the
8:36
Speaker 1: same thing, But I think like there's a specific like
8:40
Speaker 1: like this guy really grafted it out and could predict
8:43
Speaker 1: like within maybe a year or something like that, which
8:45
Speaker 1: he did. The reason why everybody listens to Hubbard was because, um,
8:50
Speaker 1: he predicted that the US would hit its own peak
8:54
Speaker 1: production in sometime between n and seventy. Well, he missed
8:58
Speaker 1: it by a year. The you s oil production peaked
9:01
Speaker 1: in nineteen and it's been declining ever since. Um. And
9:08
Speaker 1: this guy has made other great predictions. But the point
9:10
Speaker 1: is his Hubbard curve for any oil reserve, if you
9:15
Speaker 1: look at all of the reserves on Earth, is one
9:17
Speaker 1: large reserve, then the Earth's oil supplies to follow the
9:20
Speaker 1: same predictable curve. And eventually, when you hit this plateau
9:25
Speaker 1: and production starts to decline, it's inevitable. Right, That's right.
9:29
Speaker 1: It makes sense to you, it makes sense to me.
9:32
Speaker 1: So where's the problem? Uh, Well, the the In two
9:38
Speaker 1: thousand seven, the Government Accountability Office published another study that said,
9:44
Speaker 1: all right, we need to you know, guard ourselves against
9:47
Speaker 1: this potential fallout from the peak oil problem. And so
9:51
Speaker 1: there's a lot of factors here. You liken it to
9:53
Speaker 1: a marathon. This is a terrible analogy. I would say
9:57
Speaker 1: a relay race. That's where you messed up. Oh yeah, yeah,
10:01
Speaker 1: because any got different team members doing better or worse, oh,
10:05
Speaker 1: contributing or detracting. I walked right by that, man, I
10:09
Speaker 1: walked right by that. So let's look at a relay race.
10:12
Speaker 1: And each of the runners in your relay race is
10:14
Speaker 1: going to represent um oil consumption production or alternative fuels.
10:19
Speaker 1: So as alternative fuels get more advanced, then you're gonna
10:23
Speaker 1: be using less oil. So that's great um as uh
10:27
Speaker 1: consumption um, I guess you know we're trying to make
10:31
Speaker 1: moves to just consume less, right or conserve? Yeah, and
10:34
Speaker 1: conserving the uh Obamas put in place a lot of
10:38
Speaker 1: um stringent um rules for car manufacturers, the CAFE standards.
10:43
Speaker 1: So in August he did he signed in something and
10:46
Speaker 1: a lot of that doubles the CAFE standards to fifty
10:50
Speaker 1: four point five miles per gallon by that's awesome. Yeah,
10:54
Speaker 1: and that will huge impact on oil consumption. So if
10:58
Speaker 1: you're in your little relay race still, that means oil
11:00
Speaker 1: is stabilized a little more because you're just not using, using, using,
11:03
Speaker 1: you're decreasing supply, which is taxing demand, or you're decreasing demand,
11:08
Speaker 1: which is taxing supply lines. But then other bad things
11:11
Speaker 1: can happen. One of the little relay racers might get
11:13
Speaker 1: hung up by, um, the fact that China and India
11:17
Speaker 1: are growing in many ways and need some of that oil,
11:21
Speaker 1: and so all of a sudden you're going to be
11:22
Speaker 1: using more oil. And it's just a sort of a
11:25
Speaker 1: give and take, a little seesaw effect until I guess what,
11:29
Speaker 1: do you get a plateau? Or or that's just the
11:32
Speaker 1: changes the formulas. I think part of the analogy that
11:34
Speaker 1: I've I got wrong too was like I was making
11:37
Speaker 1: all these racers like racing towards the peak oil line,
11:41
Speaker 1: the finish line. Humanity is like on a way on
11:44
Speaker 1: its way toward that, but how fast we get there
11:47
Speaker 1: depends on these things. So it's almost like they're marbles
11:51
Speaker 1: or jacks or stuff for us to trip their banana peals.
11:53
Speaker 1: These are different kinds of banana appeals. Okay, some are slipper,
11:57
Speaker 1: more slippery than others. Very good then, UM. One thing
12:01
Speaker 1: is for sure is that here in the United States
12:04
Speaker 1: we use a lot of oil for UM transportation, that's
12:10
Speaker 1: the primary use of UM. What's the percentage now, seventy
12:14
Speaker 1: of all oil goes to transportation in the US? Does
12:18
Speaker 1: that worldwide? In the US? Sorry? UM? And as of
12:21
Speaker 1: now we are getting the good news is we're at
12:25
Speaker 1: a twenty year low for for for an oil imports
12:28
Speaker 1: were right, that's a very glib percentage, Like when it
12:33
Speaker 1: gets the energy. You really have to pay attention to
12:36
Speaker 1: what how a statistic is worded, because there's a lot
12:41
Speaker 1: of different factors involved. There's a lot of different ways
12:43
Speaker 1: of looking at And that's a really good example of
12:45
Speaker 1: seventy of all of our petroleum goes to transportation. That's
12:49
Speaker 1: mind boggling figure. But what we're really talking about is
12:53
Speaker 1: not oil consumption or energy consumption. We're talking about where
12:57
Speaker 1: that oil goes to and actually are assumption of oil
13:00
Speaker 1: in the US has declined in the last few years.
13:03
Speaker 1: So while we're still using seventy of all that oil
13:05
Speaker 1: for transportation, we're actually using less oil overall. What about
13:09
Speaker 1: the imports though, is that what you were talking about, Well,
13:12
Speaker 1: the imports have actually declined as well. No, no, that's
13:15
Speaker 1: what I said. But you said that's the stat that
13:16
Speaker 1: you have to be really wary of. Well, you have
13:18
Speaker 1: to be wary of all the two stats. But no,
13:20
Speaker 1: like there are some that are just kind of broad
13:22
Speaker 1: and above boards, and one of them is how much
13:24
Speaker 1: we're using how much we're importing UM and are actually
13:28
Speaker 1: we're we're importing more but we're using less. So we're
13:33
Speaker 1: importing something like UM sixty of all the all the
13:36
Speaker 1: petroleum we used in two thousand eleven we imported, yeah,
13:41
Speaker 1: which is more than the fifty eight percent in two
13:44
Speaker 1: thousand seven. So it took a sharp decrease in because
13:46
Speaker 1: we're at now as of August of two thousand twelve.
13:51
Speaker 1: No way, Yeah, it's a twenty year low for foreign
13:54
Speaker 1: oil imports. Okay, all right, so we currently we're using
13:58
Speaker 1: UH as far as this two thousand and eleven, we
14:01
Speaker 1: used an average of eighteen thousand, eight hundred and thirty
14:04
Speaker 1: five thousand barrels per day, which is a very British
14:07
Speaker 1: way of saying eighteen point eight three five million barrels
14:12
Speaker 1: a day. Yes, a day. It's a lot yeah, a
14:17
Speaker 1: lot of petrol, which is also very British, right, Um,
14:21
Speaker 1: but we we were importing less and that's actually less
14:24
Speaker 1: than we were using before. And you say there's a
14:26
Speaker 1: sharp decline down to what down to where at a
14:29
Speaker 1: twenty year low supposedly of foreign imports of imports not
14:33
Speaker 1: necessarily consumption imports. Okay, and why uh, well, a lot
14:37
Speaker 1: of reasons. I know that they found a lot more
14:39
Speaker 1: oil in America recently, apparently Texas and I think one
14:44
Speaker 1: of the Dakotas. And from what I understand, also natural
14:47
Speaker 1: gas is stepping up in in providing a lot more
14:51
Speaker 1: energy than it was before. Good for you natural gas. Yeah,
14:56
Speaker 1: aside from the whole fracking problem. Frack that so chuck,
15:01
Speaker 1: where are we at all? Right? I think we're the
15:03
Speaker 1: problems the other side of the coin. Two thousand six,
15:06
Speaker 1: the Cambridge Energy Research Associates said, you know what, We've
15:10
Speaker 1: got lots of oil. Don't you worry about it. We've
15:13
Speaker 1: actually got three point seven four trillion barrels, three times
15:18
Speaker 1: as many as uh, you guys said as the peak
15:22
Speaker 1: oil proponent coil proponent. Yeah, that's that's you guys. And um,
15:27
Speaker 1: and don't you worry about it. It's gonna be an
15:29
Speaker 1: undulating plateau. It's gonna be this drop off, and we
15:32
Speaker 1: got oil for decades and decades that we can fill
15:36
Speaker 1: in the gaps as things come along with other forms
15:39
Speaker 1: of energy, and the sky is not falling. Just shut
15:42
Speaker 1: up and watch Dancing with the Stars, right, And if
15:44
Speaker 1: you read that BP reported, it says that we have
15:47
Speaker 1: enough improven reserves to last us uninterrupted for fifty four
15:51
Speaker 1: point five years. Fifty four point two years UM, which
15:55
Speaker 1: is a very long time. That's a lot of oil.
15:58
Speaker 1: Peak oil people say that it's great, man, that's awesome,
16:01
Speaker 1: But we can't just sit back and say, well, we're
16:04
Speaker 1: just gonna keep going like this for fifty four years,
16:06
Speaker 1: because we will shoot ourselves in the foot. The whole
16:11
Speaker 1: point of believing in peak oil is saying that you
16:16
Speaker 1: we have to take steps now to make sure that
16:21
Speaker 1: when we hit that fifty four point two year we're fine.
16:26
Speaker 1: We're totally covered. But as you say, there are plenty
16:30
Speaker 1: of people out there, like the c r A or
16:32
Speaker 1: SIRA that says, you guys are crazy. Just settle down, yeah, Like,
16:37
Speaker 1: and you know the reason they say things like this
16:39
Speaker 1: is because there's a lot of oil out there that
16:41
Speaker 1: we haven't even touched. In the Arctic, for example, Um,
16:45
Speaker 1: maybe a hundred and eighteen billion barrels of oil. And
16:48
Speaker 1: we know it's out there. This is not a theory. No,
16:51
Speaker 1: they're discovered in the fifties. Yeah, it's we know it's
16:53
Speaker 1: out there. It's just really expensive to go get because
16:55
Speaker 1: it's in the Arctic. Yeah, this costs a lot of
16:57
Speaker 1: lobbying money to get into the Arctic to under the ocean.
17:01
Speaker 1: Lots of oil down there. It's just very deep. We're
17:04
Speaker 1: just we're just waiting, and we got this oil shell
17:06
Speaker 1: all over Canada. Canada is basically like one big oil
17:09
Speaker 1: shell in the Western US too. Don't worry people, We've
17:14
Speaker 1: got all these these super fields that we haven't even
17:16
Speaker 1: discovered yet. There's tons of oil. Don't worry about it,
17:19
Speaker 1: so chuck. The reason why we have all this oil
17:23
Speaker 1: but it's just sitting there, um, is mainly because it's
17:27
Speaker 1: expensive to get it. Under these conditions, you still have
17:30
Speaker 1: plenty of oil that's easily gotten right, um. And usually
17:36
Speaker 1: the way we get oil is in a three stage process,
17:39
Speaker 1: and most companies are only up to stage two, so
17:43
Speaker 1: it's really a two stage process. Does anyone even go
17:45
Speaker 1: to the third stage. Not yet in the future. Sorry.
17:50
Speaker 1: Uh that that's like that when when oil prices rise
17:54
Speaker 1: so high that your paycheck goes to buy gas, that's
17:59
Speaker 1: when they can afford. Yeah, because when you're paying twenty
18:02
Speaker 1: dollars a gallon for gas, then they can afford to
18:04
Speaker 1: go down to the art exactly. It's an economic incentus.
18:07
Speaker 1: So normally when you get oil um stage one is
18:10
Speaker 1: where you like tap the reservoir and oil pretty much
18:14
Speaker 1: just bubbles up out of the ground. You get about
18:16
Speaker 1: ten percent of that reservoir from that first stage. Second
18:19
Speaker 1: one you have to exert a little bit of effort.
18:21
Speaker 1: You pump some CO two or some water into there,
18:25
Speaker 1: and you recharge it and it starts to come up.
18:27
Speaker 1: You get anywhere from like another twenty Yeah, I think
18:31
Speaker 1: a lot of the if you watch, like there will
18:33
Speaker 1: be blood. I think those early guys, those were the dudes.
18:36
Speaker 1: I mean, they're the dudes that are now you know,
18:39
Speaker 1: the one percent, Like I don't even think they were
18:41
Speaker 1: probably going secondary. They were just going around from oil,
18:46
Speaker 1: you know, tapping that top ten percent cheaply and just
18:49
Speaker 1: moving on. But but now they move on after the
18:53
Speaker 1: second stage. Yes, after the second stage gesture you've taken
18:57
Speaker 1: um anywhere from what thirty two, which means there's fifty
19:04
Speaker 1: of that reservoir still left. You cap it and say, well,
19:08
Speaker 1: let's mark the spot and move on. P on it right,
19:12
Speaker 1: put you a little flag down. Well, now you want
19:15
Speaker 1: to use like some sort of um phosphorescent or fluorescent
19:18
Speaker 1: like crayon the market and you can come back with
19:20
Speaker 1: the black light and be like, oh here it is
19:22
Speaker 1: X marks the spot. So they cap it again because
19:25
Speaker 1: of expense, because to go down and get that final
19:28
Speaker 1: is just too expensive right now. Same with extracting oil
19:31
Speaker 1: from oil shale or tarsans or um getting into the
19:35
Speaker 1: Arctic or into the deep ocean. There's just not an
19:37
Speaker 1: economic incentive. But if you are a m a critic
19:43
Speaker 1: of peak oil, you're going to say we'll get to
19:47
Speaker 1: that when, like we have all that extra stuff out there.
19:51
Speaker 1: Calm down, Yeah, right. It is kind of good to
19:55
Speaker 1: know in a way, you know, it's it's it's it's not.
19:58
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess it's probably good that it's exp
20:00
Speaker 1: and because it would be very human like to just
20:03
Speaker 1: suck those things as dry as a bone and then
20:06
Speaker 1: move on and they're my friend, you just tapped into
20:10
Speaker 1: the central theme of peak oil. It is very humanlike
20:15
Speaker 1: to just keep plotting along and and suck something down
20:18
Speaker 1: to the bone and not look beyond that day when
20:23
Speaker 1: the bone is dry. Yeah, yeah, you're right. It's sad.
20:28
Speaker 1: I've always wondered too if the Earth needed oil, and
20:31
Speaker 1: I've looked it up on the internet and I can't
20:32
Speaker 1: find anything. Remember I talked about this before. I don't
20:35
Speaker 1: remember what that was. And I researched again a little
20:38
Speaker 1: bit last night. I was like, and I can't find
20:40
Speaker 1: any intelligent person on the internet that it's not just
20:43
Speaker 1: some message board saying, you know, oil is the blood
20:46
Speaker 1: of the Earth and the planet and if we suck
20:48
Speaker 1: it dry, like why do you think we have earthquakes? So,
20:51
Speaker 1: but I don't know. There's oil and earth. It's conservaive function, right,
20:55
Speaker 1: I would imagine, maybe I would think. So I tend
20:59
Speaker 1: to think of things is um as a whole like that,
21:04
Speaker 1: like the Earth has Maybe there's reasons for everything like that,
21:07
Speaker 1: or even if there isn't a reason, that's been around
21:09
Speaker 1: so long, even something's become dependent on it. So it's
21:12
Speaker 1: important to something else other than our cars, right, And
21:15
Speaker 1: it is a lubricator and it is found within hard rock.
21:19
Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe I'm crazy. So Chuck, we talked
21:23
Speaker 1: about UM, how this article is kind of almost a throwback.
21:30
Speaker 1: It's a it's like a snapshot of like this kind
21:32
Speaker 1: of I don't want to say hysteria because I think
21:34
Speaker 1: it's it's right. But there was a lot of stuff
21:36
Speaker 1: going on in like two thousand and eight that we're
21:39
Speaker 1: making these peak oil adherents UH say hey, we're right.
21:44
Speaker 1: Everybody pay attention. And probably the thing that UM verified
21:48
Speaker 1: their beliefs more than anything else came on July eleven,
21:53
Speaker 1: two eight, when oil reached an all time high of
21:56
Speaker 1: a hundred and forty seven dollars of barrel. That is expensive, right,
22:00
Speaker 1: And if you believe in peak oil, or if you
22:02
Speaker 1: are an adherent of the peak oil idea, UM, this
22:07
Speaker 1: is like one of the four horsemen riding out of
22:09
Speaker 1: the sky. But the thing was they ended up being UM.
22:14
Speaker 1: They were duped like everybody else by the speculators who
22:17
Speaker 1: had driven up prices, but they were saying, no, this
22:20
Speaker 1: is a problem. This is part of what they call
22:22
Speaker 1: peak light, which they think we've hit. Peak light is
22:27
Speaker 1: basically where production starts the plateau and we don't realize
22:31
Speaker 1: that it's going to eventually decline. But we're in the plateau,
22:34
Speaker 1: and um, there will be like little highs and lows,
22:37
Speaker 1: and all of those are going to each one reflects
22:39
Speaker 1: this smaller scale, longer time frame version of the actual
22:45
Speaker 1: peak oil. But it's kind of, um, it's like the smaller,
22:50
Speaker 1: smaller version of it. Once we hit the peak, and
22:52
Speaker 1: they think that's where we are now. Um, And if
22:54
Speaker 1: you ask me, that peak sounds an awful lot like
22:57
Speaker 1: what Sara was saying. The undulating plateau and peak light
23:01
Speaker 1: sound like they're virtually the same. Maybe so, yeah, but
23:03
Speaker 1: they disagree on when we hit that. Well, oil per
23:07
Speaker 1: barrel is lower now. Um, thankfully, that's one big thing.
23:13
Speaker 1: As far as this month goes, eight six dollars and
23:15
Speaker 1: thirty seven cents, we've added since two thousand and eight,
23:19
Speaker 1: we've added almost half a trillion barrels of oil improve reserves.
23:23
Speaker 1: It's a big one. So we're moving in the right
23:25
Speaker 1: direction in some ways. Yeah, correct. Alternative fuels. Alternative fuels
23:30
Speaker 1: are making up a lot bigger chunk they make up
23:33
Speaker 1: for the first time. And here's a good example of
23:36
Speaker 1: another statistic. You have to pay attention to alternative fuels
23:40
Speaker 1: UM or renewables and nuke and hydro. For the first
23:45
Speaker 1: time ever in world energy consumption make up more of
23:50
Speaker 1: the energy being used than any single fossil fuel for
23:55
Speaker 1: the first time ever in two thousand and eleven has happened.
23:57
Speaker 1: It's great covering growth and can omption. So there's your
24:02
Speaker 1: there's a very big key factor that means that everything
24:04
Speaker 1: passed the year before. That's the growth in consumption, right,
24:10
Speaker 1: So it's covering of that, not of all energy consumption.
24:15
Speaker 1: So it sounds like this huge enormous number and it's
24:18
Speaker 1: a good hardening number, but it's not what you think. Like,
24:21
Speaker 1: you really have to pay attention when you're talking about
24:23
Speaker 1: energy consumption or energy stats they're true, because stats can
24:27
Speaker 1: be very misleading in this realm, right, and so um
24:30
Speaker 1: one of the big problems with peak oil is anytime
24:31
Speaker 1: you say, well, hey, we have stuff in the Arctic reserve,
24:34
Speaker 1: so we're fine, there's a lot of other problems that
24:37
Speaker 1: come up in conjunction with it. Oil is it's very dirty,
24:41
Speaker 1: uh literally and metaphorically that's right. You could destroying ecosystem
24:47
Speaker 1: very easily, very easy in the Arctic, very precious balanced ecosystem. Okay,
24:52
Speaker 1: so let's just think all of our money into all
24:54
Speaker 1: alternative energy. It sounds like you're saying, yeah, I would
24:59
Speaker 1: say that's a great move, but um, it can be
25:03
Speaker 1: uh promising on one hand, but things like switch grass
25:07
Speaker 1: and say yello stick ethanol are very corrosive and it's
25:11
Speaker 1: very expensive to retrofit gas pumps at a gas station
25:14
Speaker 1: and gas storage tanks. It's like a grand gas station. Yeah,
25:17
Speaker 1: so it's not like there's some super easy answer. Well
25:20
Speaker 1: plus also plus also it's like, um, you're taking investment
25:24
Speaker 1: money away from finding new oil fields coming into alternative energy,
25:30
Speaker 1: which isn't necessarily a bad thing until you realize that. Well,
25:33
Speaker 1: wait a minute, we are. We're globalized, so if you
25:37
Speaker 1: take away oil from China and India, you're gonna slow
25:40
Speaker 1: down this economic engine. Strike that balance, right. It's Homer
25:44
Speaker 1: with the goldfish and Mr Pinchie again with the salt.
25:47
Speaker 1: You know, it's the same thing. Coal. Um, they can
25:50
Speaker 1: actually make liquid coal now that can power a vehicle,
25:54
Speaker 1: which is great with no alterations. You can pump it
25:57
Speaker 1: right into your car. The bad thing is, um, coal
25:59
Speaker 1: is really dirty and you're going to be emitting four
26:02
Speaker 1: to eight percent more greenhouse gases than gasoline. Even so
26:07
Speaker 1: again no easy answer. Well, the same goes for natural gas.
26:10
Speaker 1: Natural gas made up of UM. The energy provided in
26:15
Speaker 1: the US that was consumed was provided by natural gas
26:19
Speaker 1: last year. That's huge. It's more than coal came out
26:23
Speaker 1: of nowhere. Right. But the problem is is that you
26:25
Speaker 1: have fracking alongside of that, Like to exhibit, you have
26:28
Speaker 1: to basically like create an environmental disaster every time. UM.
26:32
Speaker 1: So there, Yeah, there's all these problems with mitigating it,
26:36
Speaker 1: but the worst thing you can do is nothing. This
26:40
Speaker 1: one report that's kind of like peak oil adherence Bible
26:44
Speaker 1: found it's called the Hirsh Report, Yeah, or a k a.
26:48
Speaker 1: Peaking of World oil production, colon impacts, mitigation and risk
26:52
Speaker 1: management and UM. Robert why they call it the Hersh Report.
26:56
Speaker 1: Robert Hirsch put this together and basically laid out three scenarios.
27:01
Speaker 1: It's UM, do nothing, start ten years ahead of time
27:06
Speaker 1: to help out this problem, or start twenty years ahead
27:08
Speaker 1: of time to to really head off this problem and
27:11
Speaker 1: to head off these mitigations. It's UM figuring out alternative fuels,
27:16
Speaker 1: decreasing demand UM basically like just doing whatever you can
27:22
Speaker 1: to take the pressure off of production. Yeah, so that
27:27
Speaker 1: we still have oil, we're just using less of it. Yeah,
27:31
Speaker 1: And unsurprisingly, he says twenty years before it would be
27:34
Speaker 1: the best way to handle this, ten years before. If
27:37
Speaker 1: you did that, he said, it could be a pretty
27:39
Speaker 1: smooth transition. Um, if you start ten years before, then
27:43
Speaker 1: what were You're gonna have a problem for about a decade,
27:46
Speaker 1: a shortfall And if you don't do anything, then you're
27:50
Speaker 1: gonna have at least a twenty years shortfall. And so
27:53
Speaker 1: what we're talking about, and there's like, yes, a global
27:55
Speaker 1: energy um shortfall. Scared, that's scary times there, because oil, petroleum, crude,
28:03
Speaker 1: oil and petroleum are found in our medicine, our foods.
28:07
Speaker 1: They are used by the tanker trucks and ships that
28:11
Speaker 1: deliver petroleum use petroleum to deliver it. It's everything to everybody.
28:18
Speaker 1: It's the lifeblood of of the global economic engine. And dude, like,
28:22
Speaker 1: we've never experienced anything like what like the catastrophic collapse
28:28
Speaker 1: that would happen if we experience a ten year global
28:31
Speaker 1: energy shortfall. I got two words for you, mad Max. Yeah,
28:35
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, I don't I think like I don't
28:39
Speaker 1: see an end of that, Like if we experienced ten
28:42
Speaker 1: years or twenty years, I don't see how we would
28:45
Speaker 1: ever come out of that. Yeah, I mean, because it's
28:48
Speaker 1: easy to say, well, get on your bicycle, but like
28:50
Speaker 1: you said, it's not just hey, I put gas in
28:53
Speaker 1: my car to go to work. It is everything, Like
28:55
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, I can't get food delivered to
28:58
Speaker 1: the grocery store with medicines. Uh. Yeah, it's pretty scary thought.
29:02
Speaker 1: And the big part of the I guess probably the
29:05
Speaker 1: biggest problem is like we won't know when we hit
29:08
Speaker 1: peak oil until a few years afterwards, when all these
29:11
Speaker 1: telltale signs start coming. And I'm sure most people won't agree,
29:14
Speaker 1: so it'll probably be several years afterwards. But when it's
29:17
Speaker 1: just painfully obvious that, oh, production is being outstripped by demand.
29:22
Speaker 1: Supplies can't keep up with demand anymore, and it looks
29:24
Speaker 1: like it's never going to go back up, which means
29:26
Speaker 1: we've hit peak oil, which means we're in trouble. What
29:29
Speaker 1: mitigation measures do we have in place? Yeah. One thing
29:32
Speaker 1: you don't want to hear someone say is oops, you know,
29:36
Speaker 1: especially when you're talking about the global economic engine. Yeah,
29:39
Speaker 1: and I think you said some people claim that it
29:42
Speaker 1: might have already happened in two thousand five. Others say, um, no,
29:47
Speaker 1: you know what we're good to. What is when we
29:51
Speaker 1: hit that undulating plateau, which which which should be not
29:54
Speaker 1: a problem as far as serious concerned. But even um
29:58
Speaker 1: is what you said the most conservative peak oil. Um,
30:02
Speaker 1: that's about say enthusiasts, but inherences. Um, And yeah, that's
30:07
Speaker 1: the latest they think it's going to happen as far
30:09
Speaker 1: as as when I wrote this in two thousand and eight. Now,
30:11
Speaker 1: a bunch of stuff have happened. Remember, we added almost
30:13
Speaker 1: half a trillion barrels of oil, we're using less, our
30:17
Speaker 1: cafe standards were increased recently. Um, the three point four
30:22
Speaker 1: percent of all new car registrations in the US and
30:25
Speaker 1: two thousand eleven, No, two doesn't twelve so far, Um,
30:28
Speaker 1: we're hybrid or electric, which is one percent just a
30:31
Speaker 1: few years ago. But it's such a drop, it is,
30:33
Speaker 1: But like all of those drops count in like just
30:37
Speaker 1: kind of prolonging this this point until we get to
30:41
Speaker 1: peak oil. Alternative energy UM investments are up. It's like
30:46
Speaker 1: we're doing all this great stuff and as a result,
30:49
Speaker 1: all of the people, all these really loud voices that
30:52
Speaker 1: had like a real stage in two thousand eight and
30:54
Speaker 1: had the ears of a lot of people who were
30:56
Speaker 1: um governing at the time. Um these the climate has changed,
31:03
Speaker 1: and I wonder if like it was because of a
31:05
Speaker 1: lot of these peak oil adherents shouting really loud that
31:08
Speaker 1: we have made some concessions. But now I wonder if
31:11
Speaker 1: we're just going to become complacent, right, like, oh well
31:13
Speaker 1: we staved it off, we're fine for now, and we're
31:15
Speaker 1: just gonna kick it on down the road, because I
31:17
Speaker 1: don't see a lot of effort going into it. I
31:20
Speaker 1: mean not there's some, but certainly not what is needed.
31:23
Speaker 1: I just feel like we're all headed towards the cataclysmic
31:27
Speaker 1: like collapse of humanity. Eventually we're all going to turn
31:31
Speaker 1: on each other and and ruin ourselves, and the Earth
31:35
Speaker 1: will be scorched and empty. May not be anytime soon,
31:39
Speaker 1: we're maybe hundreds and hundreds of years from now. Who knows,
31:42
Speaker 1: but anyone that thinks that humans on planet Earth or
31:45
Speaker 1: we're gonna be around infinitely forever because we're humans, it's just,
31:51
Speaker 1: you know, they're pooling themselves as fool's gold. Nice. How's
31:55
Speaker 1: that for happy? That was perfect. If you wanted to
32:00
Speaker 1: learn more about peak oil, you can type those words
32:04
Speaker 1: into the search bar at how stuff works dot com
32:07
Speaker 1: and will bring up this article. And I said search
32:10
Speaker 1: bar s means it's time for listener mail, Chuck, I'm
32:15
Speaker 1: gonna call this where's the orchestra um? This is from
32:19
Speaker 1: Eric Stephens and he is a double bass player principal
32:25
Speaker 1: double bass player in an orchestra near Cologne, Germany. And
32:28
Speaker 1: he listened to the Ben s Alicia about music and emotion,
32:32
Speaker 1: which we got great feedback on. And he says many
32:34
Speaker 1: thanks to Ben, who played another fantastic and inspiring performance.
32:37
Speaker 1: He's a beautiful open way of discussing music. I couldn't
32:40
Speaker 1: agree more. Many thanks to him for mentioning the importance
32:42
Speaker 1: of classical music. It's an art form that, unfortunately two
32:45
Speaker 1: feetle too few people are exposed to now, having a
32:48
Speaker 1: lot to do with its financial and logistical complexities, but
32:51
Speaker 1: nonetheless one of the most powerful and underrated forms of
32:54
Speaker 1: music today, and it has contributed so much to how
32:58
Speaker 1: we in the Western world here proceed of music today.
33:01
Speaker 1: I would really love it if you guys could get
33:02
Speaker 1: out and hear another performance sometime. Even more so if
33:06
Speaker 1: you encourage s Y s K listeners to get out
33:08
Speaker 1: and experience and support their local orchestras. Um. It is
33:12
Speaker 1: difficult time for orchestras right now, and has been mentioned
33:15
Speaker 1: many are being forced to downsize or fold altogether. This
33:19
Speaker 1: is one of the reasons why I've ended up in Germany,
33:21
Speaker 1: which still heavily supports many orchestras with state financing and media.
33:26
Speaker 1: The appreciation is very deeply rooted in the culture out here,
33:29
Speaker 1: and while it's a slightly different situation in the States.
33:33
Speaker 1: I want to remind people that classical music is not
33:36
Speaker 1: exclusive unless you make it so. And I would go
33:38
Speaker 1: on to even point out that he means orchestral music.
33:41
Speaker 1: Classical is a period of time. Oh yeah, you know,
33:44
Speaker 1: way to correct him. He probably doesn't appreciate that. Um,
33:49
Speaker 1: it is not exclusive unless you make it so. So
33:52
Speaker 1: you don't need to have a tuxedo or a deep
33:55
Speaker 1: musical education to appreciate the extreme beauty and the importance
33:58
Speaker 1: of it. Couldn't agree more. Please give it a chance,
34:00
Speaker 1: He'll keep it alive. And uh, that is very good advice.
34:06
Speaker 1: Support your local orchestra. I guarantee you whatever town you
34:09
Speaker 1: live in, unless you're in some really backward Kansas Field town,
34:14
Speaker 1: you probably got an orchestra. Even if it's a smallest town,
34:18
Speaker 1: you might am an orchestra. Yeah, if you're in a
34:19
Speaker 1: big city, you definitely have an orchestra. Yes, go out
34:22
Speaker 1: and see. It's usually pretty cheap. Um, it's not like
34:26
Speaker 1: paying for you know, sixty bucks to go see Jack
34:29
Speaker 1: White make noise. I like Jack lydextra, but he's charging
34:35
Speaker 1: too much. Sixty bucks ahead. Yeah, when he played that,
34:39
Speaker 1: he got that rack. Rock and tours fan together tickets
34:42
Speaker 1: for like sixty or seventy by bucks. It's a lot
34:43
Speaker 1: for one album of material for a lot anyway. Um,
34:47
Speaker 1: thank you for all the years of explaining the world
34:49
Speaker 1: through fantastic podcast. I hope for many years to come
34:51
Speaker 1: to hear these. When I drink my delicious colch beer tonight,
34:55
Speaker 1: I'll roast you guys, he says Sheera Grusa. I'll call
35:00
Speaker 1: own Eric Stephen's thanks a lot. Stephens appreciate that orchestra.
35:06
Speaker 1: I'm in favor of encouraging our listeners to go out
35:08
Speaker 1: to an orchestra. We got a good one a specific
35:11
Speaker 1: day where all stuff you should know, listeners go out
35:14
Speaker 1: to the orchestra. Well, I don't think you can count
35:16
Speaker 1: on an orchestras playing on that day in every town
35:19
Speaker 1: and arts. Well, let's find out about it. Let's find
35:22
Speaker 1: out all right, let's even get that together, like like, no,
35:24
Speaker 1: I don't think we can make that happen. But maybe
35:26
Speaker 1: there's a day when the orchestras typically play like traditionally speaking,
35:30
Speaker 1: Or how about like this winter season, make a commitment
35:33
Speaker 1: to go out because you're gonna be darn sure that
35:36
Speaker 1: building orchestra playing some sort of Christmas classical concertos. All right,
35:43
Speaker 1: that's it. You you have to go out and see
35:45
Speaker 1: an orchestra this winter. Yeah, but don't. No, Cracker is
35:49
Speaker 1: not bad depending on where you see it. I like
35:53
Speaker 1: it's a little doll really thinks huh oh for me? Sure,
35:57
Speaker 1: there's like giant soldier and a huge there's a rat
36:02
Speaker 1: that hits people with this. There's a lot of stuff
36:05
Speaker 1: going on. Um, well, what do you like to go see?
36:08
Speaker 1: You see Christmas Carol? No, I mean I don't do
36:11
Speaker 1: any of that stuff. I see I see Jack White
36:14
Speaker 1: and complain. Um, let's see if you have a favorite
36:19
Speaker 1: band you'd like to see that you think Chuck and
36:21
Speaker 1: I should see, or a performance of some sort uh,
36:25
Speaker 1: whether it's Nutcracker or Jack White or whatever. Well, we've
36:28
Speaker 1: already covered this too, so you should probably leave them alone. Um,
36:31
Speaker 1: we want to hear from you. You can tweet your
36:33
Speaker 1: suggestions to us at s y ESK Podcast. You can
36:37
Speaker 1: join us on Facebook dot com slash stuff you Should Know,
36:39
Speaker 1: and you can send us a general email to Stuff
36:43
Speaker 1: Podcast at Discovery dot com. For more on this and
36:51
Speaker 1: thousands of other topics. Is that how Stuff Works dot
36:54
Speaker 1: com