Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | April 27, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA Show | April 27, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:06
Fall systems don't clear the lift. We're back talking some fights, my man,
0:39
Big Marley, myself titled Town, not UFC three hundred, not UFC
0:44
three oh one, eight packs, fight night. What do they call them?
0:47
This? Fight fight night? Right here? Vegas ninety one, Vegas
0:51
ninety one. There you go. We're at the APEX. Thirteen fights.
0:55
I will say there's gonna be some violence. There's gonna be some fun fights.
0:58
There's no doubt about that. When you look at UFC three hundred two
1:02
weeks ago. Yeah, nothing's gonna compare to that next week. I'm excited,
1:04
man, you have C three on one already. Erzag Pantoja. We
1:07
got Islam Pourier coming up pretty soon. Whittaker, Chamaia of course, Connor
1:12
Chandler. It's a great time to be a fight fan, no doubt about
1:15
that. Summer gonna be absolutely low to a fight this week though. Thirteen
1:19
fights, one Hunter k up top Man, It's gonna be fun. No
1:23
favorites above minus four fifty. We do have one, I will say before
1:27
throwing it to you, James jon top Is minus four forty. The biggest
1:33
favorites. He was supposed to fight Landovernada a little while ago. Then Gabe
1:37
Green, both those fights fall out, pricing was already out, so we
1:41
have eighty two hundred. Yon Top is the biggest favorite on the card.
1:45
Gonna add a little interesting dimension wrinkle into this slate. But yeah, now
1:49
for talking, I'm gonna bring you in, Big Marley. How's your week
1:52
off? How's USC three hundred? What's going on in your life? Yeah?
1:56
The week off was nice after that card. I know it was a
2:00
losing card for me, but I don't think I've ever had more fun losing
2:02
on a card because it was just such a great card. It lived up
2:06
to the hype. But now coming back it was a little rough. I
2:09
was like, oh, man, I gotta get myself hyped up for Nalliang
2:13
and Marnick Mann. It's easy to get hyped up for Leang Nah, come
2:16
on now, not man, Maybe a little bit more of that one.
2:21
But yeah, I do think it's gonna be another high scoring card. I
2:24
think you could make a case on my fight rankings, I could have made
2:28
a case for like seven of these fights to be five star fights. So
2:31
those will be the ones that I'm really loading up on. I'll try to
2:35
get away from my lower star fights, but mix some in here and there.
2:38
The Yan top will make things very interesting. If you're gonna be loading
2:42
up on him, you got to think of other ways to get different.
2:45
Yeah, I'm looking forward to breaking this down with you. Absolutely, We'll
2:47
talk game theory, We'll talk everything. As always, I will say,
2:51
right from the get go. Miamma, suff I pe up a little later
2:53
than usual. Usually it is right after the show. I'll be doing the
2:57
MLB Show with Ham today as well. Very busy NBA playoffs going on as
3:01
well. Everything will be up this afternoon early tonight. Definitely won't be late
3:06
tonight by any means. Ownership will be up as always. We'll hint at
3:08
it a little bit here, but Yeah, excited to talk some fights.
3:13
Ben's in here, Loan Wolf, Joe Ann, Michael Peterson, Camera Bro.
3:16
Appreciate everyone hanging out. I did see your comments. Actually I did
3:20
reply to it. If you go on YouTube comments, I did reply.
3:23
It was a Venice hat. It was from California. It said Venice Beach
3:27
on the side, So I don't know if it's like your I doubt it's
3:29
a high school or something like that. When I was visiting Rio in California.
3:32
That's when I picked it up. It said something Venice Beach or something
3:36
like that, So maybe that is. Let me know if that is,
3:39
if that is your school. Golf in here, Kyle's favor fire Petka Gee
3:45
kiper in here as well. Like bun subscribe, bun helps us out a
3:49
ton. I know a lot of people watch on playback. Just take one
3:51
second out of your day right now before you watch the video. Hit that
3:53
thumbs up, hit that subscribe helps a ton. And if you want to
3:57
join us at the nation, no better time to join. Man. All
3:59
these in full force. Your pacers are putting a beat down. I'm on
4:02
bucks, NBA playoffs, we got NFL Draft, a lot of fun,
4:06
PGA goes going on. I know it's an interesting week. I don't even
4:10
know how the showdown works for that. It's like at team events, full
4:13
force PGA though, teams absolutely dialed in. MMA back this week, NHL
4:17
playoffs, MLB going on as well, NASCAR on Sundays. Next thing you
4:23
know, college football, NFL will be back. Plenty of money to be
4:27
made weekly, monthly, six month, annual packages weekly, no discord,
4:31
no promo code. Twenty four dollars a week though to check out all the
4:34
contents. Otherwise, monthly, six month annual packages monthly, then six month
4:40
annual annuals. The cheapest deal forty nine dollars a month after the promo code
4:44
about forty two fifty nine dollars a month for the six month comes out to
4:47
like fifty and then our annual or our monthly package sixty nine dollars a week
4:51
comes out to about sixty fifty eight dollars a week, fifty eight dollars a
4:56
month. So much going on. My mouth is working fast in my brain.
5:00
Monthly sixty nine dollars a week comes to like fifty eight fifty nine dollars
5:02
a month. It comes out for our six month package, which is about
5:05
fifty two. Annual package comes out to about forty nine dollars a month,
5:09
which is about forty dollars. People charge forty dollars just for MMA alone.
5:13
You get all those sports right there with the best ownership in the business by
5:16
our man, Big Marley. That's enough talking, though. I'm in Venice,
5:20
Florida, Okay, absolutely so, Venice, Florida, California not the
5:25
same. I like the hat though, that is why I got it.
5:30
We already kind of have broad slid overviews, Big Marley. I mean,
5:32
yeah, we have a lot of fun fights, especially the top of the
5:34
card. Finish finish, finished the first eight fights expected to finish. I'm
5:40
expecting violence. I need big scores out there. I didn't misspeak though.
5:44
Minus five hundred is the biggest favorite for Petrovic. But yeah, if you
5:48
play the main thingy on top eighty two hundred as the biggest favorite on the
5:53
card, we have them about sixty percent owned. I think that's probably right,
5:57
and the lotto for sure. If you go high state eighty percent like
6:00
ninety percent. As far as single entry, it's even gonna get higher.
6:04
We'll go fight by fight though, if you play him, you can leave
6:08
salary gotta get different in some way and the other fight fight overview or you
6:12
want to go top or bottom the top like always. Yeah, let's bang
6:15
it out, hang it out. First fight of the night. I'll throw
6:17
it right to you. What's going on, jazz Man. Hope you're doing
6:20
well. Hope you're enjoying e three time you have with your man who most
6:25
definitely deserves it coming off a big ten K showdown win as well. First
6:30
point of the night, absolute banger to kick it off, Mashate taking on
6:33
Gabriel Benitez eighty eight hundred. Mashate seventy four hundred is Gabriel Benitez minus two
6:41
thirty two is Mashate just went Actually minus two forty plus two o five on
6:45
the way back is Gabriel Amanitez minus two ten for this fight. To finish,
6:48
Mashat minus one ten Benitez plus three twenty five inside the distance. Throw
6:54
it to you right away, how do you see this fight going down?
6:58
I like the underdog in this first fight we have Mahashat. I mean,
7:02
he's basically a striker, only I do think he's the more dangerous striker here.
7:05
I think he's the more likely minute winner. If this is a fifteen
7:10
minute striking match. He is like minus one ten inside the distance as well,
7:14
and if he does get a finish, he probably scores well. But
7:17
he is just a striker. He's just okay in my eyes. I haven't
7:20
seen anything great about his striking, so I really can't justify this betting line
7:26
for him. He is like twelve years younger, so a fighter who's ten
7:30
or more years younger than his opponent usually wins like two thirds of the time,
7:34
so I guess the line can be justified for that reason. But if
7:38
you're just looking at skill for skill, I think this is much closer to
7:40
a pick him fight, and Benitez can win a fifteen minute striking match,
7:44
especially if he's slowing Mahashat down with his leg kicks. He still has some
7:48
of the best leg kicks bodykicks too. We can bring it up to the
7:50
head, but I think he could win by any method. If he wants
7:55
to wrestle here, I think he could win minutes on the ground. I
7:57
think he could also submit Mahashat. It's just that he doesn't wrestle like I
8:01
would like him to. But if things aren't going the way you would like
8:05
him to on the feet that it just makes sense to lift for takedowns here.
8:07
So at seventy four hundred dollars, I think Benitez is gonna have a
8:11
lot easier time paying off his salary in a win. If Benitez wins,
8:15
I feel pretty good about him scoring around ten x if not more, and
8:18
maybe even one hundred point upside, whereas if Mahasht wins at eighty eight hundred,
8:24
I don't feel good about him scoring over ten x, and even if
8:26
he does score ten X, he's got to compete with all the other high
8:30
priced fighters as well, who I think have high ceiling. So I will
8:33
be underweight to Mahashate and probably overweight to Benitez. Here. I'm not confident
8:39
in Benitez. It's just I think there's a lot of value there. At
8:41
plus two hundred, I think it's closer to a pick and fight than plus
8:45
two hundred in my opinion. Yeah, I love it. I'm on Benita's
8:48
side as well. I mean, you guys know I'm a soccer for the
8:50
calf kicks to throw some of the best calf kicks out there, the body
8:54
kicks, I mean, it's a dollar I won't even I guess trip him
8:58
that much a Walmart or something of Mansarte's last opponent, Slava Clause. Benita's
9:03
and Slavi Clause do pretty much the same stuff. I give Slava Clause the
9:07
advantage. His boxing's better, but still it kicks on both of them,
9:11
which is what they're known for. Absolutely nasty. Knockdown three times in that
9:16
fight was male Chatte. The dude has a great chin. Now, when
9:18
you get knocked down three times, and he's very young. I'm starting to
9:22
get him maybe a little more worried about the chin. I still think he's
9:24
a more durable fighter, so I understand him being the favorites. But those
9:28
like kids, I think will add up early, limit his movement and then
9:31
Benitas can bounce around, just pick him apart, maybe land a big shot.
9:35
I do think it's probably, but if you tell me it goes the
9:37
decision. I'm saying, thinking Benitaz, if you say knockout, I feel
9:41
confidence. Maleschate not saying Benitas can't knock him out. I just trust his
9:46
durability. And if this fight does, like if Benita's gets in close and
9:50
they're just MaTx Holloway Gaechee at the end, pointing out, et cetera in
9:54
a phone booth, I think Maschate wins that. Trust his durability, more
9:58
big power the hands. But yeah, you're talking at this number, I
10:03
will say, I'm a little nervous. Two days ago, when I was
10:05
writing this fight up, it was minus one ninety minus one plus one sixty.
10:09
Now we're looking minus two forty. My shot has taken some good money
10:13
these past couple of days. It feels way too wide. It's dogger passed
10:16
for me. But I will say I'm more interest in Maushota than you just
10:20
because of where he is. For pricing, Rise Denise nine thousand, gott
10:26
to be double the ownership, Ryan Span eighty nine hundred, gott to be
10:30
close to one and a half time double the ownership eighty seven hundred, one
10:33
hundred below Mittaya's Nicolau. I don't love Nikolau, but he's still in the
10:37
main events. He has to naturally get ownership and be higher on then one
10:41
lower Jonathan Pierce at eighty six hundred. I mean, that's a DFS god
10:45
right there. If he wins over five takedowns per minute, he or fifteen
10:48
minutes per minute would be absolutely nuts. And even Rob does that. All
10:52
of those guys two hundred, Nicola and Piers, the two below him,
10:56
Span Denise two hundred above them are going to be higher owned. I think
11:00
so in that reason he is favored to finish what is it minus one ten
11:03
inside the distance should be a fun scrap. I will get probably overweight on
11:09
Maschate, even though I'm picking them to lose for that reason and the ownership.
11:13
But I'm on Benitez and I want to be overweight. More overweight there
11:16
as well. Let's keep a rolling. Next fight on the card, very
11:20
fun one to talk about Amana Petrovish Leaning Nah. Biggest favorite on the card
11:26
is Petrovic minus fun five hundred liang Nah plus three seventy five minus three fifty
11:31
for this fight to finish. Not every day you see that in the woman's
11:35
division. Liang Na, I mean Charlie on Tavero's the perfect I comp Terrence
11:39
McKinney I wrote up for a second wrote round wunner bus. But my Kinny's
11:43
got a little more skill than liang Na dean toa Verro's liag Now. Though
11:48
they'll come out hard in the first round. If they somehow win, which
11:52
we haven't seen, they're gonna put up a big score. Otherwise they're gonna
11:56
die, and they give their opponents big scores minus two twenty five inside of
11:58
this for Petrovic plus five hundred for you leang Nah take it away. Yeah.
12:05
If leang Now wins this fight, it's gonna be early, most likely
12:09
round one. If not in round one, then early in round two.
12:11
She is very aggressive offensively, but she doesn't care about defense at all.
12:16
She's not looking to stuff any takedowns, she's not looking to block any punches,
12:22
so she can be had on the feet or the mat. But Petrovic,
12:26
who mostly finishes her fights, she's gonna have a big edge in my
12:28
opinion with the wrestling and grappling, especially the longer this goes. Maybe the
12:33
first round looks closer to a pick him with now aggressive now a leang is,
12:37
But I think that Petrovic could go out there and look for takedowns and
12:41
just nullify the aggressiveness right away. But if leang Now wins his fight,
12:46
she's gonna be on the optimal lineup and she's not gonna have as much ownership
12:50
as her ceiling reflects in my opinion, So I'm okay getting some leverage there,
12:56
But I gotta pick Petrovic here. I mean, leaning Na just has
12:58
no heart, no cardio, no defense. So I think Petrovic's gonna finish
13:03
her in the second round, if not the second, then in the third,
13:07
and I think it'll have a lot of top control time, maybe multiple
13:09
takedowns leading up to it. So I like Petrovic, and I would rather
13:13
find six hundred dollars to get to Petrovic over Mahasht. So that's the one
13:18
reason I'll be lower on him. But you did make a lot of sense
13:20
with your with your breakdown, I think maybe you added a little bit to
13:22
my exposure on him. Yeah, mainly it's just like the Majat's like when
13:28
I am playing Yan top at eighty two hundred, Like I just can't jam
13:31
in Petrovic, DNI's, et cetera. That's what I'll be looking for.
13:37
I don't even know, Like it's hard to get like Victor, Henry,
13:39
Suza, Mashate, Like, those are the people that will be lower owned
13:43
up there. You have to mix in some low on pieces in the lineups.
13:46
I play you on top, that's probably more than likely when I'll get
13:50
to Samajate when I don't play y on top. Oh, I one hundred
13:54
percent would rather Petrovic span all of them as well, So just kind of
13:58
how you play them. We talk about a lot on this show. But
14:01
yeah, I got really nothing more to add in this fight. I will
14:03
be probably overweight on liang Na is it fun? No, not at all,
14:07
but ten percent own. She roughly comes in at if she wins,
14:11
She's like what ninety five ninety eight percent optimal in a win like you might
14:18
need to see some crazy like the pace is gonna be too high. She's
14:22
sixty eight hundred. I guess at that point it'd be two other dogs or
14:24
three other dogs just scoring one hundred plus and outscoring them. But almost all
14:28
the win equity feels like optimal equity for me and every single underdog on this
14:33
card wins. Liang Na has a top probably four ceiling on the cards.
14:39
Still, Yeah, with the favorites, like she's gonna maybe, I mean
14:43
you're right, yeah, if she's she's gonna come. If she wins,
14:46
yeah, I think she comes out she somehow gets take She's had success,
14:48
get takedowns, getting the back like I do think this fight plays out on
14:52
the mat. What I'm trying, what we're trying to say, though,
14:54
absolutely great fight to targets. Petrovic gonna be popular for rightfully, so I
15:00
want to get overweight on that talk. I think it's good if Leone now
15:03
does somehow win. I think she also scores well at ten percent and the
15:07
leverage there, I'm gonna be playing a lot of this fight. Hey,
15:11
my man, Weezy, I appreciate that, brother, hope you're doing well,
15:13
weezy. Always good to see you. Let's keep it going. Next
15:16
fight on the car. Two fights down, thirteen fights to talk about.
15:20
Actually, let me read afresh. Way in is quick. Wayne's going in
15:24
right now. Everyone so far as made wait nice. We're still waiting on
15:28
what one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
15:33
eight, eight people were waiting on Of the twenty six everyone made wait so
15:37
far, so that is music to our ears. Let's keep all thirteen fights
15:41
on this card. Excuse me. Next fight on the card. We've hinted
15:43
that at a lot. James Yon Top eighty two hundred, minus four forty
15:48
favorite taking on Chris Padilla, who's taking this fight on short notice for Gabe
15:52
Green, who pulled out. This fight is minus two forty to finish again
15:56
Y on top minus four forty, Padilla plus three. It's likes minus two
16:00
forty to finish under one and a half minus one seventy. I do not
16:06
see individual inside the distance props for these guys, but I'm guessing on Top
16:10
will probably be like minus one forty inside the distance minus one fifty maybe Padilla
16:15
probably, I don't know. I'm spitballing. I guess at this point plus
16:19
four fifty or something like that. I'll throw it right to you at this
16:23
one. Talk initially how you think this fight goes, just someone tuning in,
16:27
like what is Chris Padia gonna bring to the table, what's Yon Top
16:30
we're gonna bring to the table, And then more importantly, game theory on
16:34
top in that lotto probably sixty percent roughly single entry, the one hundred dollars
16:40
single entry, seventy maybe seventy five, the five to fifty five seventy five
16:45
percent maybe, So know what contests you're in. I'll say right here is
16:48
I will be playing some Padilla just because of all the leverage it gets you.
16:53
And when he does win, sixty percent plus are dead. You get
16:57
that win, you compete against win less people. But am I just burning
17:02
money doing that? I mean I'm gonna do it too, But uh,
17:07
Y on top, I would say, he's just mostly a striker. He
17:10
can strike at a high pace, He's got nice elbows, he's a good
17:12
finisher. He should have a big striking edge in this in this matchup,
17:17
and that's why he's such a big favorite. That plus Padia is taking this
17:21
fight on short notice. I feel like y on Top has some wrestling in
17:26
his game, but it's not in his game plan. It's more like,
17:30
if Padilla closes the gap, maybe y on Top can turn it around and
17:33
get takedowns on him instead type thing, whereas Padilla is going to have wrestling
17:38
in his game plan, like he's more looking to strike with a takedown in
17:41
the back of his mind. In my opinion, he does have knockout power.
17:45
He just knocked out Justin James or something to a former UFC fighter.
17:52
Oh my god, he's the life. He comes in the Camacho fight,
17:56
what was it on a three days notice? One of the first cards backs
18:00
out and then that'son win a fight after that keeps going, Yeah, that's
18:03
who he knocked out. But I didn't even see that fight. And then
18:07
there was a lot most of his fights I couldn't find film on, so
18:08
I saw highlights of the fight before Janees, and then maybe one or two
18:15
other of his fights since twenty sixteen. So there's just a lot of unknowns
18:21
on this guy, and I feel like the line is wide enough to where
18:26
I don't think that there's any value first of all, but I would rather
18:30
take my chances at the ownership Anyways, I would rather take my chances on
18:33
Padilla, the guy who I think will look to wrestle. He could get
18:37
a knockout as well. But if this guy wins, I think he's gonna
18:38
put up a decent score, but he will more importantly kill off sixty percent
18:42
of the field. Whereas yan Top, I don't think he's gonna go out
18:47
there and wrestle, and if he doesn't get a finish, he's mostly a
18:49
striker. So if he loses minutes on to Padia's wrestling early in the fight,
18:55
that's taken away from his potential scoring. I just think there's a lot
18:57
of ways for this guy not to end up on the optimal lineup, So
19:02
his ownership is really what's talking me off of it. I'm thinking I'll go
19:04
half the field something like that. I definitely can't fade it. You lock
19:07
them into your cash game lineups. But if I'm making one hundred and fifty
19:11
lineups, I'm not gonna get any leverage to him. I know that,
19:15
So I'm thinking maybe thirty percent on Top sounds good to me, and then
19:19
I have Padilla sub ten percent ownership, which I think it'll be. I'm
19:23
not gonna get any more than ten percent, But I can see me getting
19:26
too ten percent or so and getting a little bit of leverage on him just
19:30
to hope that I kill off sixty percent of the field. And if he
19:34
does win, I think he can compete with the optimal lineup. My issue
19:38
with Padia is that I like other underdogs on this card more to win,
19:44
and then there's other underdogs, so I'm picking to lose, like Liang Nah,
19:47
who are just gonna have a higher ceiling than Padia if they do win.
19:49
So it's gonna be hard to get to him. But game thory wise,
19:53
I feel like he makes more sense to me. Like if I'm making
19:56
one lineup this week and I'm trying to win one hundred K rather his Padia
20:00
than you on Top. Yeah, so that's the way I'm I'm looking at
20:03
it. But overall, I do think you on Top since but he has
20:07
taken this fight on short notice. I don't think he can wrestle for three
20:10
full rounds. I think he's gonna start to slow DOWNY on Top will pick
20:12
up the pace, probably finishes him late in the fight, or wins two
20:15
three rounds. On the scorecards, I'm hoping he wins on the scorecards,
20:19
scores eighty five points, that probably won't get them there. So that's that's
20:23
how I'm seeing it in my head. Fine, getting exposure to him,
20:26
but there's no way I'll match the field. Yeah No, all that very
20:30
good breakdown. It all makes a lot of sense. One thing I will
20:32
add to maybe even yat we might even be it's hard to say we're light
20:37
on the on top, but whyy on top he is even more appealing this
20:41
week is the mid tier is not good. Man. If you go eighty
20:44
four hundred, blow the fig Lack Hubbard fight, it's gonna be low o.
20:47
Not a great fight to target on paper. Kio Machado Dantel mays,
20:52
not a good fight to target on paper. Then you get that on top
20:55
eighty two hundred, no ak fighter because uh padillaz all the way at sixty
20:59
nine. Like, if people are gonna fall in that range, they're just
21:02
gonna click that button. I like the Liftski Silva fight a lot eighty five
21:06
seventy seven, but that's still like three hundred. You might need to get
21:08
up to Silva in a vacuum. On Top's a way better play than the
21:14
Piersonama fight's fun and it gets good after that, but the two fights surrounding
21:18
it are bad fights. So you know right away, if you want leverage
21:21
on this card, you're playing a chalky lineup. Play one of the Machado
21:25
Fidlack fights instead of the on Top. You can play the dog. I
21:29
like Stars and Scrubs a lot this week as well, but I do want
21:32
to point that out. On Top will anytime you have a minus four fifty
21:36
favorites who's eighty two hundred because they get someone in short notice will be owned,
21:40
but only be even more owned, I think because of who's around him
21:42
in this range. I'm obviously gonna play you on Top and lineups like that
21:47
again. That's why I'll be playing the Victor Henry some more Masha Days,
21:49
alang No, et cetera. And lineups that I'm playing Padilla. Give me
21:53
the Petrovics of the world, the Ryans fans like you can eat more chalk
21:56
around it. That's why I always think MMA is a better MMM sport,
22:02
and it's how you build the rosters like we talk about all these sports.
22:04
Instead of who's winning yon Top's winning. I'm not gonna play any Padilla.
22:08
Well, at the end of the day, you play all the chalk,
22:11
you can split it with one hundred and eighty people. And that's just now
22:14
where I want to be on so yep, I think you awesome job breaking
22:17
down that fight. Yon top far and away the best highs own play on
22:22
the card. Let's keep it rolling, Big Marley. Next fight to talk
22:25
about we have again. We're gonna go through a stretch right here, not
22:29
great fights to insane fights, But this fight I don't have much interest at
22:33
all. It's an ownership play if anything. Katlan su'sa marnik Man. Ninety
22:37
two hundred, who's seven thousand is man most likely fight to go the distance
22:42
on the card. It's plus two hundred to finish. All the finish equity
22:47
on the Susas side pretty much plus two hundred, who's a plus two nine
22:52
to ten is man. I have this fight as a fade in twenty entry
22:56
below. It's gonna be one of the lowest on cumulative fights on the card.
23:00
Susan is the big striking advantage. Man's gonna want to get to the
23:03
feet or get it to the mat. She's just so small, man like
23:06
too little, too little, that's all she is. I forget who who
23:10
is calling someone too little in the NBA game, Someone's calling bron I think
23:15
I can't remember too little though. One of the better things out there.
23:18
Man Man just really small. Susan is strong. Man has better wrestling,
23:23
She has better offensive takedown. Susan's been taken down. But at the end
23:27
of the day, I think Susan will just physically be able to get up
23:30
if she does get taken down, or just throw Man off her because she's
23:34
not big enough. Susan on the feet, though you probably need a first
23:37
or second round knockout. That still might not be enough for who She's surrounded
23:41
by over two and a half minus two sixty five. Just really like,
23:47
if I have one hundred and fifty teams, I'll play some. I'll play
23:49
them in They on top lineups and stuff like that. That's talky, but
23:53
I know most people probably watch play ten lineups or less. I would not
23:57
get to this fight with ten lineups. Yeah, it's my least favorite fight
24:03
on the card. SUSA should have a big striking edge here, and Man's
24:07
not a good wrestler, so SUSA could probably just keep it on the feet
24:11
and piece her up for three rounds. But Man is tough, so I
24:15
don't really see Susa getting a knockout. She is plus two hundred inside the
24:19
distance, which is way worse than everybody priced around her. See, I
24:23
think the only way you get to Susa is as an ownership play. You're
24:26
you're eating a lot of yan top ownership, then maybe use a little bit
24:30
of Susa. But since I'm going low ony on top, I'm exing Susa
24:33
out of my player pool. I don't really like Man either, But the
24:37
last time I took down a tournament, Man was in my lineup, So
24:40
I owe it to her to put her into one or two lineups. She
24:42
didn't even win. I got there with a loss. Get there, you
24:47
get there Man, So one or two man lineups. But aside from just
24:53
uh owing that to her, I don't I don't really like her either.
24:56
However, if Man is gonna win this fight, it's gonna come on the
25:00
ground, It'll have a few takedowns, lots of top control time, and
25:03
she'll probably put up a good score. So she's similar to a Padilla without
25:07
the knockout upside in my in my opinion, But yeah, if I'm if
25:11
I'm making one lineup. I would rather have Man just for that reason.
25:15
Susa's looking to strike here. She's coming off a bad injury as well.
25:19
I've seen her taken down and held down by worst fighters. There was some
25:22
fighter on the regional scene. I was watching the fight and it looked like
25:27
SUSA dropped the first two rounds by giving up takedown, spending most of the
25:32
first two rounds on her back, And I'm like, how the heck is
25:33
she gonna win a decision here? And then I'm like, oh, it's
25:36
a five round fight. So she won the next three rounds. But this
25:38
is not a five round fight. If you make that same mistake here,
25:41
man will win two rounds here. So I'm exing out Susa. I'll be
25:45
light on Man, super light on Man, like I'll match the I'll match
25:49
the field or something like that. Five Max. Uh Yeah. Overall,
25:55
this an next out fight for me, my least favorite fight on the card.
25:57
Yep, you and I see it the same. What's going on?
26:00
Rio? Hope you're doing well? And I did want to shut out?
26:03
Rio reminds me Man what a day I mean. NBA Playoffs Showdown has absolutely
26:08
been a printer for plenty of people agency yesterday, So shout out this cowboys.
26:14
What was the cowboys? Two A two A sharp man always in the
26:18
streets out there, but Agency. I did see he won one hundred k
26:22
solo shifted Cowboys in the big lotto agency had the exact same lineup. He
26:26
won five hundred bucks. I hope you're not watching because it's not the moral
26:29
of the story. He had the stone Cold nuts though six percent. Dinwiddy
26:33
gave Vincent Lowe owned a well owned Aaron Gordon Captain one first place one five
26:37
hundred bucks, but the stone Cold Nuts and only one guy had it in
26:41
the actual lotto agency absolutely on fire. So I was shied fifteen hundred bucks
26:45
to thirteen hundred or thirteen or thirteenth place fifteen hundred bucks on the main slates,
26:51
Smarty six x junior Junior took eighth out of five hundred and eighty three
26:55
people in the NBA streets always in there, grinding, good to see.
26:59
Wanted to shout out them out. Rio has been doing a great job in
27:03
the NBA playoffs. Obviously, once MLB started, NBA shows not a thing
27:07
anymore. Everything behind the paywall premium content awesome Slate Planning still does in depth
27:12
Showdown, Core Report Monday through Saturday, and of course Discord a huge piece.
27:18
He's always in there, so shout out Agency Junior Smarty. A lot
27:22
of nice wins yesterday in the association. Today turns eighteen dollars into fourteen hundred
27:30
like a week or two ago. So yeah, make shot you real.
27:33
Yeah, single bullet from the gym. Big Marley comes out of nowhere,
27:36
shifts it all baby, awesome stuff, Big Marley. Let's get back talk
27:40
some fights. First of all, you got you got your pacers over the
27:42
bucks today. You're gonna be watching it. I won't be watching it most
27:47
likely, but yeah, I'll pick them just up. I love it.
27:51
Next fight on the card one I do not like very much either. Right
27:55
in that mid tier Kyle Machado Dantel May's low level big boys going at it.
28:00
Pretty much a coin flip right now, depending where you look. Machada
28:03
minus one sixteen, dontel May's minus one zhero four fight to finish, plus
28:07
one ten, don teil May's the Slight Dog and the four hundred savings a
28:11
little better inside the distance prop at plus two point fifty compared to excuse me.
28:17
Machado at plus two eighty five, I just don't love his quite much,
28:21
Big Marley like unless downtail May's wrestles, which he averages less than one
28:25
per fifteen. It's really hard to see him doing that. I think it's
28:29
a pitter patter on the outside. Both guys just exchanging stuff. Over two
28:33
and a half minus one seventy. I agree with that. Obviously, both
28:37
guys have some power, but I think it's just a low, slow paced,
28:41
boring fight at range. I don't know. I guess Machado throws more
28:45
volume, so maybe he wins. But if I had to pick a play,
28:48
my preferred plays, May's because he's four hundred dollars cheaper, slightly better
28:52
inside the distance prop I'm gonna cast these guys thought like fifteen percent owned,
28:56
maybe twenty. If I got zero, I'd be fine with it, but
29:00
a case to be made for them they will be low owning that midsier.
29:03
Everyone's going on top at eighty two hundred somehow, what a Mazer Machado outscorey
29:08
on top. You can very well see a solo ship for this week,
29:11
So it's really just game theory in a vacuum though I don't like this fight.
29:17
It is big boys, though so and pretty much a coin flip to
29:19
finish. Maybe you can talk me into it a little bit. No,
29:22
I can't if they if they weren't heavyweights, that this would be a one
29:26
star fight for me, because I do think it's just a slower paced fight
29:32
no matter how it takes place. But Machado would be the higher paced striker,
29:36
may is the more likely wrestler, the better athlete of the two,
29:40
maybe more knockout power. Yeah, I just don't see one of these guys
29:45
having any chance at one hundred points in a decision unless Maze like wrestles very
29:48
heavily, which I just don't think he's good enough to do. Uh So,
29:52
Yeah, these are guys I'm not looking to back with my money very
29:56
much. And since I'm not looking to throw money into the pot by investing
30:00
in both sides, I'm gonna just take my chances here in Xolt Machado.
30:03
I'll save the four hundred bucks and use Maize or pass. I would really
30:07
want to pass on this whole fight and then actively root for it to get
30:11
canceled after lock. But since they're heavyweights that there's a chance that they could
30:17
make the optimal lineup at low ownership. Yeah, I hate this fight,
30:21
not looking to watch it. This is a good one. If you're gonna
30:22
take your dog for a walk or something like that, this is a good
30:26
time for it. Man. It's kind of sad that, like we can
30:30
cheer for a post cancelation lock because it actually happens way more than it should.
30:34
That part never used to be the case a lot. I know people
30:37
got into UFC after the pandemic. I mean you were getting fifteen fights every
30:41
single week. Pre pandemic. People weren't missing weight. There was no touch
30:45
thing as cancelations and got it. Yeah, definitely changed. I don't know
30:49
if people got a little softter what it may be. I ain't never call
30:52
them the UFC fighters soft, but it definitely has changed a little bit.
30:56
Making definitely not to their face, well no period, they're not if you're
30:59
getting in that octagon but running. But why you wouldn't know, you wouldn't
31:07
all right, next fight on the card. Enough of that before that gets
31:08
closed. Michael fig Lac Austin Hubbard minus one seventy one is fig Lac at
31:14
eighty four hundred Austin Hubbard seventy eight hundred is plus one forty one. On
31:18
the other side, this fight another one expected to go the distance plus one
31:22
sixty to finish. Fig Lac plus two to eighty five Austin Hubbard plus four
31:27
hundred. Fig Lec looked awful on his debut. I mean, the kickboxer
31:30
and ZM put on the wrestling shoes. Not a good look. But he
31:34
took what almost two years off. He was good in Cage Warriors before he
31:38
came over. Hubbard is what second stint in the UFC beat Haul about got
31:44
on or got the contract out of tough. Hubbard is not a guy I
31:48
really like playing in dfs. Fig Lec, I guess is an unknown.
31:52
I want your opinion for sure on this one. I had it as a
31:55
fade right before the show. I changed fig Lac from fade to underweight because
32:00
I was like, all right, he's gonna be low owned the Yon top
32:02
stuff. Like that's a pivot right there. I don't like Machado, I
32:06
don't like May's. I mean he might be grinding, he's gonna be low
32:09
owned. There's more just unknowns. I guess with him in the second UFC
32:14
fight coming off a stinker, but I don't love this fight. At the
32:16
end of the day, Can Fig like mixing takedowns? Can he finish Hubbard?
32:21
Can he put up one hundred? I mean, I don't like him.
32:25
I plan on fading him, but I do I would rather use him
32:30
over Machado to get different from the on top. So maybe I don't know
32:35
Hubbard in this fight. Who's your preferred play Hubbard? Yeah, I think
32:38
it's a pick and fight in my opinion, So I think, uh,
32:44
what's in a fig Lak. He's probably the more dangerous striker of the two,
32:46
has a little bit more power, but a fifteen minute striking match,
32:51
it's close. Maybe it goes to fig Lac, but I'm not confident in
32:53
that. And then Hubbard could slow him down with lake kicks, and then
32:58
the wrestling, Like I thought fig would have a wrestling edge in his last
33:01
fight when he's facing a striker, but he got out wrestled by a striker.
33:06
And Hubbard has faced some of the best wrestlers in the division and he's
33:10
won against a couple of them, and he's averaging ninety four points in his
33:15
wins. I think Hubbard makes a lot of sense at seventy eight hundred,
33:17
I will probably be overweight to Hubbard and then underweight for sure to fig Black,
33:22
But with like twenty or less, I'm gonna x them out. With
33:27
one fifty, I'll get to a little bit of fig Lac probably, but
33:30
yeah, this one's gonna be more so Hubbard or pass for me. Let
33:32
me just save the six hundred dollars too on my favorite fig Lac line up
33:37
and throw Hubbard in that as well. So I think that we're getting a
33:39
little bit of recency bias value on Hubbard here from losing to Kurt Halibah kind
33:45
of gassing out in that fight, but he does train at elevation. I
33:49
think that recency bias is always a good thing to attack. So give me
33:52
Hubbard to turn it around here. Yeah, I mean we see it similar.
33:57
It's just I guess I prefer the other side if I had to pick,
34:00
and again, I just think because he has more one hundred plus point
34:02
upside, which is kind of one of these cards like UFC three hundred,
34:07
where I'm we probably don't need everyone to score one hundred plus, but I'm
34:10
at least acting like we do because if Lean now wins Benitas is good down
34:15
there. Alex Prez is one hundred plus point upside. If Austin Lane wins,
34:21
if Guskov wins, they can put up one hundred plus. So I
34:23
just don't love if someone scores one hundred in this fight. I think it
34:27
is more likely to be fig Lact than Hubbard. At the end of the
34:29
day, though, I don't like this fight one bit either, or I
34:32
mean, I guess I shouldn't say one bit because I'm going to keep fig
34:36
Lac in the pool. But it is more of a fade than not before
34:39
he gets the next fight. If you had one hundred and fifty teams,
34:42
is there anybody you're exing on this card? Susa, Susa? Okay,
34:46
if I was high Ony on top, then I would keep someone for her
34:49
in, but I'm not. Yeah for sure. Next fight on the card
34:52
Victor Henry Ronnie, Yeah, yeah, depending where you look. I mean,
34:57
man, I'm seeing minus four to twenty five on DraftKings plus or minus
35:00
three sixty five. I'm bet online now Rondi Yayah is tooking, took him
35:05
taking some money. This morning. It was minus fourn or plus all week
35:08
now minus three sixty five plus two to ninety minus one oh five for this
35:13
fight to finish victor Henry plus one forty five inside the distance Randie ya Yah
35:17
plus five twenty five. Yeah, I'm not playing Randie Yaya. I know
35:22
that very good submission game. If he grabs the back, does what he
35:27
did against King the whole fight, and just controls him, he has a
35:30
path to victory. Henry good takedown defense, good get up game score,
35:35
me lands over eight significant strikes on the feet. I don't know. Talk
35:38
to me about Henry though, man because like Yaya could fop to his back
35:43
if he gets hit. If he wants to slow down this fight, Henry
35:45
throws a bunch of volume if he gets a late finish, any finish.
35:50
I guess he very well has a chance to put up one fight. He
35:52
put up one fourteen in decision one oh six. In a decision one fourteen,
35:57
I would take it roughly twenty percent one six. I don't know,
36:01
you don't hate it. Probably not enough on this slate. I think a
36:05
lot of people put up some big scores up top, but eight significant strikes
36:08
per minute one of the biggest favorites on the card, and he's gonna be
36:12
lower own than a lot of these people up top as the highest priced fighter
36:15
with a way worse inside the distance prop than plenty of them below. So
36:20
in yon top lineups I mentioned earlier, I don't love Susan much. I'll
36:23
play Henry More to get different up top. Do I love it in a
36:28
vacuum? No? I like Petrovic Moore, I like Denise Moore, I
36:30
like span More, et cetera. In y on top and chalk your lineups,
36:34
I'll play some Henry. What are your thoughts though on like how this
36:37
fight goes? Can he get to the optimal Can he gets you one fifteen?
36:40
Can he finish ya Ya? Or is Yaya just gonna be flopping to
36:44
his back? I think he's gonna need to finish Yaya to make the optimal
36:50
lineup at ninety five hundred, So he I'll probably cap his ownership at his
36:54
inside the distance line lust one forty five. So that's it's better than I
37:00
thought. So yeah, that's like and yeah, forty percent is way higher
37:05
than I want. Actually, I feel like in my head I'd rather have
37:07
closer to twenty percent, Henry, because I mean, if you're looking at
37:10
it, eight point twenty six landed strikes per minute is pretty freaking good in
37:15
multiple fights, but yah Yah only absorbs one point seven to seven strikes per
37:21
minute. He's not a guy that's gonna just be there for the fight like
37:23
grave Ley and Barcelos were. He's gonna be trying to avoid the fight at
37:28
all costs, flopping to his back, jumping for ankles, whatever he's got
37:31
to do. But if ya Yall wins his fight, it's gonna be in
37:35
the first round. It's gonna be first round submission most likely, and he's
37:37
gonna be on the optimal lineup. And I think if he gets a takedown
37:40
in the first minute, the odds are gonna shift really close to pick him
37:45
in my opinion, because like people are, Henry's better is gonna be sweating
37:47
at big time. Yeah, it's on the ground, But if yah Ya
37:52
doesn't get his first or second submissions, I think he's gonna start giving up
37:58
on himself, and the cardio is gonna start giving up as long. I
38:00
mean, the longer this goes as well. So I think Henry's super in
38:02
play for a late TKO here, but he's not gonna want to wrestle,
38:08
and if he does drop the first round. It's gonna be really hard to
38:12
come back from that. So I'm gonna be lower than the field. I
38:15
actually don't what I put the field at, twent twenty two percent. I
38:21
think that's about right because people rather click on Petrovic for one hundred less,
38:24
way better in a vacuum, then you can save and you can save money
38:29
too, but or like leave money on the table. But Denise span Nikola,
38:34
like all of them in the vacuum, feel like they have way higher
38:37
They're inside the distance prop sas so under one and a half and that span
38:40
Denese fight is crazy. But yeah, even at the same price, I
38:45
like those guys more. Yeah, I just won't get too much Henry.
38:49
But on the other end, yeah, yeah, is gonna be unowned and
38:52
I actually think he's pretty damn live here in this first round, so I
38:54
will be probably overweight to ya. Y'all probably go ten percent yah yah,
38:58
try and double up the field there. But yeah, it's another fight where
39:02
I just don't feel good about it. I think most of the time Henry
39:06
is gonna avoid the submission in the first round and coast his way to a
39:08
decision and just not score enough points. So Henry probably wins and doesn't score
39:15
enough for the optimal lineup. That's how I see it going down. So
39:16
not a bad fight to x out if you want to do that, but
39:19
they could both make the optimal lineup. No, I agree with you.
39:22
I think there's another fight you can cross off, and mean people are probably
39:24
like, wow, who are these dudes playing? They cross off all this
39:29
card well, every single fight we're gonna talk about from here on out.
39:31
Banger banger, banger, banger banger. So if you have only one fight
39:35
left or something, you're chilling in first place after this fight, don't get
39:38
your hopes up. You're gonna see some big scores more than likely. I'm
39:43
not gonna get to ya ya. Just because I like a lot of these
39:45
dogs. I'm playing leang Na. I'm playing Padilla for leverage, and that's
39:51
the main thing. Like. I just like Padilla more because I know I'm
39:53
getting a lot more leverage off of the opponents than I am with Yayah,
39:57
because I think Henry's gonna be pretty low owned anyway. Definitely has the upside
40:00
though twenty one submissions. If it's on the mat, you are definitely shaking
40:04
in your boots if you don't have yah Ya, which will be neat.
40:07
But I'm playing the now. I'm playing Padilla, no man, but I'm
40:09
playing means Laying Guska, Benitas, Perez Onama, Silva. Like all of
40:15
them, I think are very live, not as I mean Yaha yah yah
40:19
Yah has the upside. He's gonna be low ow. So everything you say
40:22
I agree with, I need to make some fades. I like enough dogs.
40:25
If yah Ya wins, hey, NBA playoffs are on Saturday, there's
40:30
always something else to do now, always some other money to be made.
40:32
And that is where all the heading in the MLB and NBA streets to get
40:37
some back. That is Victor Henry Rani yah Yah though again just to fight.
40:42
I'll be playing Henry and chalk your lineups to get different. Though here
40:45
we go. We got what seven fights left? One, two, three,
40:49
four or five or six fights left? All absolute bangers expected to finish
40:52
eros metage ten means minus three hundred metach plus two point fifty is me.
40:58
Isn't medet your medic I've always said them metach, but yeah meticch that's yeah.
41:04
I feel like some people say it. Who knows with pronunciation pronunciations,
41:07
But Matag is what I go with. Yeah, I'm going to manage Earl's
41:10
menage ten means minus three hundred. Matage plus two fifty means minus two forty
41:15
for this fight to finish, manage once minus one sixty five ten means plus
41:20
five fifty. I'm right there. We talk about Mattag who's ninety two hundred
41:23
and our ninety one hundred excuse me, way better. Inside of this is
41:28
probab minus one sixty five compared to Henry for four hundred more plus one forty
41:31
five. That's why we're talking this ownership. Matticch is gonna be high your
41:36
own, There's no doubt about it. I'll throw it to you right in
41:37
this fight. Though everyone's darling this week, it feels his ten means rightfully.
41:43
So he just schooled the young young buck Fiallo, everyone's a young buck
41:46
to ten means, though at this point in their career, he definitely still
41:51
has some some left in them, some grit left in him, some hands
41:53
left in him. The chin I will admit I'm a little worried about at
41:57
this point in his career, not really that he's giving me too many reasons
42:00
to but he's taken so much damage metage it's hard. And I will say
42:05
I was front row. That was the knockout with Semmelsberger in Utah was right
42:08
in front of me. Man, Mattics looks scary. That backfis he got
42:13
hurt early. The cardio checked out. It was at elevation too. I
42:16
was impressed to see managed in that fight. How I'm gonna throw it to
42:20
you in this one though? Does Tim means wrestle? Because outside of his
42:22
last fight against Fiallo, which he didn't need to, he's wrestled a lot
42:27
more later in his career. It's open here like that's that's the easiest at
42:31
the victory mixed in takedowns is at the cardio a little bit so he can't
42:36
get knocked out. This line feels wide, but man, I don't know,
42:40
Like, does Tim means wrestle? I don't think he wins a striking
42:43
match. I think he can, but I wouldn't pick him to do so.
42:45
So yeah, take it away. Yeah, I think he probably does
42:49
wrestle, but he's forty years old now, He's definitely not as durable as
42:54
he used to be. He's not getting knocked out a lot but he's eating
42:59
shot and then like getting submitted shortly afterwards, and Metic is dangerous, especially
43:05
in early in fights. He's never been to a decision in his life,
43:09
so it's just a good fight to target for that reason. But I think
43:15
if there's a first round or even a second round finish in this fight,
43:17
it's probably gonna be Metic and he's probably gonna score well. However, if
43:22
Means looks to wrestle, I think he can take away that power by just
43:25
drinding out control time. And I think that the best bet. I think
43:30
the line is definitely white, like almost ten percent, maybe not quite ten
43:34
percent, two wide, but the best bet, in my opinion, is
43:37
money line decision only, so it's only graded if it goes the distance.
43:42
Means it's still a slight underdog in that scenario, and I would favor Means
43:45
in that scenario. So I already bet that right there means money line decision
43:50
only. And I think that if people wanted what book and what number did
43:53
he get DraftKings plus one ten, I'm guessing it's still there. It was
43:59
like an hour ago, maybe something like that. But I think that Means
44:02
is just a better all around fighter in this one. I mean, he's
44:06
forty years old, so we got to expect a little bit of a decline,
44:07
but he should be the better wrestler. I think he's the better minutes
44:12
a minute striker as well, So it's just the durability that I don't like.
44:15
And I think medics probably finishes them early in the fight. So I
44:19
actually like both sides of it, but at their ownership, I would much
44:22
rather get leverage on the mean side. And maybe I'm off if you say
44:27
that means as everybody's darling, maybe I'll have to up him a little bit.
44:30
But it feels like more betting. I guess I don't know. Like
44:32
I'm on I'm on Twitter once in a while, I don't really I don't
44:36
read what other people really say, but like I follow clints like Diehard Mma,
44:39
I follow a lot of random Magic, some other like random betters that
44:44
are pretty big in this space that post tickets, random names, and it
44:47
feels like a lot of people means value plus two like in that aspect.
44:52
Now does it carry over to DFS. Yeah, I guess that's why I
44:54
don't really talk or looking at too much, because I don't really think it
44:58
has too much of a saying da, maybe it does. I don't know.
45:00
Yeah, maybe, I mean, I do look at that stuff,
45:02
so maybe I up Means his ownership before the fights start. But he's like
45:08
half of what Metic is projecting at right now for me, So I would
45:13
rather get my leverage on the Mean side. But at the same I'm cool
45:15
just loading up on this fight, getting leveraged to both of them. Maybe
45:17
going forty percent Metage, just get a little bit of leverage there and then
45:22
twenty five thirty percent Means and really double up the field almost on him.
45:27
I think it's gonna be a good fight, but I think Means is more
45:29
likely to win a decision, and I also think he could score ninety plus
45:31
points winning a decision. So Means my preferred play, but I'm picking Metage
45:36
to get an early finished. Hoping I'm wrong. Manage Denise Span rank him,
45:43
uh the opposite with no no no Denise Span Metics. See yeah,
45:47
that's where Yeah, I'm I'm the exact same Denise Span Metic and it's ninety
45:52
one hundred nine K eighty nine. And that's kind of why. Because Matt
45:57
It isn't gonna wrestle, and if Means does out, he can drop the
46:00
first round, get off his bat, be on his back for three minutes
46:04
means out in the second round. And it's not going to be optimal.
46:07
That's the little concern. It means does wrestle minutes can go by without him
46:10
scoring, and you know Maticch isn't going to get top control. Whereas span
46:15
douts have some wrestling upside. The Denise fight would be very, very weird
46:17
if it went along that way. So you feel more comfortable about the ceiling
46:22
on those better. So I do think Manage will be my third And yeah,
46:25
I guess I don't really know if I have a preferred play. I'll
46:28
say if we have thirty six percent matage, fourteen percent means right now at
46:31
that ownership, I prefer means. But I will be playing both sides just
46:36
pretty much the rest of all these fights. Every single person will be in
46:38
my pool. But I think you could make a case, I mean not
46:42
a case, but there's flaws in all three of those guys. We can
46:45
make a case for them not being on the optimal lineup. So I think
46:49
with my handbuilds, I'll be low on Meticch, BUTO with m me.
46:52
If I'm making one fifty it's gonna be hard to avoid him in a lot
46:54
of my lineups because I want to load up on this fight. Yeah,
46:58
totally makes sense. He's last fights. I will most definitely be loading up
47:00
on it. Again, don't get too confident. If you're in first place,
47:04
you're checking out the optimal unless you've got one hundred and ten for all
47:07
your fighters, and then yeah, you're definitely solo shipping something four fight or
47:10
five fights left on the card. I am super pumped for this fight right
47:14
here. Jonathan Piers David o'ama minus won fifty eight Piers plus one thirty five
47:19
Onama minus two hundred for this fight to finish, Jonathan Piers plus one fifty
47:23
David o'ama plus one ninety five. I will admit I am a little sad.
47:28
Just a couple of days ago Pierce was minus one seventy five minus one
47:31
eighty. I mean, I'm on the Oanama train because I think this line
47:36
is is a little crazy now talking betting and that compared to DFS, I
47:42
don't think it's crazy in terms of ownership, because if Jonathan Pierce wins eighty
47:45
six hundred, it's really hard not to see him on the optimal over five
47:49
cydifant strikes per minute over five takedowns per fifteen minutes. David O'nama's biggest weakness
47:54
has been his takedown defense. Essentially, you got taken down twice last time
47:59
I sat m the Landwad fight when he was completely dead, etc. But
48:02
it's a class of styles in my book. If Piers can't get him down,
48:06
Onama's gonna hurt him, hurt him bad. I think he's gonna knock
48:08
him out. I think we got Piers by Wrestling for all the money,
48:13
for all the points, or Anama by KO. But the problem is,
48:16
even Onama KO is not a lock for the optimal. If he gets wrestled,
48:21
fucked or whatever for the first two rounds, third round knockout he scores
48:24
sixty eight seventy four. Is that the likely path? No, If Onama
48:29
wins, If you tell me Onama wins right now, excuse me. I'm
48:32
almost jamming him at one hundred percent. But I do think Pierce is.
48:37
If you say Pierce wins, he's more likely at the optimal even for a
48:40
thousand more than I do think Onama is, just because of the style of
48:45
the fights and Onnama can be controlled off his back for a periods of the
48:49
time on this fight, there's no doubt about that. I'm still taking the
48:52
dog money. I definitely don't like plus one twenty five and plus one thirty
48:57
five like I did plus one fifty a couple days ago. I think that.
49:00
Yeah, but I'm an Onama stuff. Takedown's hurt him more athletic fighter.
49:06
I'm an Anami, I will say, though I'm a little little biased
49:09
since he came in with Mason Jones. I've loved him Dallas, Texas.
49:13
I was sitting right next to him and his boy the whole time. Cool
49:15
dude. I like Onama, but yeah, he's dangerous, man. I
49:19
think he wins. Yeah, I love this fight. This is my favorite
49:22
fight on the card from a watching perspective, and I'm high on both guys,
49:27
and it's a top three fight to target on DraftKings close to all in
49:30
really because of the price tags and because they can both fight at a high
49:35
pace. Pierce averages one hundred and twenty points in his wins, and he
49:38
was on the way of breaking the slate in his last fight before he got
49:42
finished with a joke submission. But that's I mean, it's gonna be him
49:47
on the ground or it's gonna be on i'ma on the feet. Onama is
49:51
a high paced striker with a lot of power, and I think we're gonna
49:54
get an Onoma knockout or we're gonna get a Pierce decision or mission that either
50:00
way scores well. So I'm just gonna load up on this fight. I
50:01
don't even think it matters who you're picking to win, just get some leverage
50:05
on that person. I I just agree with everything you said. So I
50:09
think I'm slightly favoring my Pierce exposure because he more likely breaks the slate if
50:15
he wins. But I'm just gonna load up on this one. Maybe I'm
50:20
fifty Piers forty percent on Ama. I don't know what the hell I'm gonna
50:23
do on this one, but I'm gonna have a lot of it. And
50:27
I didn't put either one of them in my core plays because I'd be fine
50:30
with either one of them being in there. Uh So I got three other
50:32
guys. You can go check it out over a ship a nation dot com.
50:35
But yeah, I love this fight, can't wait to watch it.
50:37
Uh And sad that one of them has to lose. Yeah, well you
50:40
might as just jax it brother draw no content, first round, doesn't have
50:47
to lose. Unfortunately, let's let's move on before you get some bad juju.
50:52
Even more on that, a Dinas taking on Austin Lane. Diaz,
50:58
My, I'm probably butchering that Dinas. Dinas, You're not to Dinas Denise
51:04
Denis Denise. Yeah, I've been saying, Denise. I knew it didn't
51:07
sound right. You're not to Denise. Austin Lane minus three ten Denise plus
51:12
two to sixty is Austin Lane minus nine hundred for this fight to finish.
51:15
Most likely to finish on the car Denise minus two twenty Austin Lane plus two
51:21
fifty. Yeah, it feels like the USC knows what they're doing. Denise
51:24
six and oh six knockouts Kickboxer. The transition into MMA Austin Lane, former
51:30
NFL player cheeks at MMA, ain't gonna go for takedowns. It feels like
51:37
bad striking defense. Yeah, obviously wouldn't say any that to his face.
51:42
With all that being said, I'm gonna be playing some lane because WEM Lane
51:45
does win, It's gonna be probably a first or second round knockout for all
51:49
the money, for all the points, for cheap and leverage. But man,
51:52
it feels if you're picking Austin Lane in this one. Please comment below
51:57
why because I just don't see anyone on it and it's really tough to get
52:00
behind it personally. But with all that being said, I will probably be
52:05
more overweight on late, maybe just because he's gonna be like a fourth or
52:07
fifth of the ownership, and when he wins, he is gonna score anymous
52:13
weight unbelievable, unbelievable. Let's see one fit or on top miss way to
52:21
Padilla weighing half a pound under y on top, half a pound over a
52:25
monomous by two and a half pounds. I mean that may that dos to
52:29
make you like the fight even more? Maybe it helps him with his takedown
52:31
defense a little bit. He knew he wasn't gonna make, so we didn't
52:35
cut off those extra couple pounds and uh and kill himself and Zappa Cardio makes
52:40
wrestling on peer side harder. But yeah, maybe it's man, that way
52:45
cut was awful. He did try, he still couldn't get in Pierce.
52:47
Maybe you're right, maybe I just jinxed it and now when I'm don't have
52:51
to lose because peers like I don't want to fight anymore. Yep, maybe
52:53
that as well. Yeah, thanks for letting us know and are Ben,
52:58
But yeah, like the thesee what he got? Yeah, I expect these
53:04
guys to throw heavies until one of them falls. Denise is the better striker,
53:10
Like he's a pretty good kickboxer for at least five minutes, but he's
53:14
never been out around one, so he's one of those unproven guys who have
53:17
no idea what he looks like after round one. And he's only a striker.
53:21
So if anyone's looking for takedowns here, it should be Lane. But
53:24
Lane's just not a good fighter. Lane's probably like the toughest guy in every
53:29
bar that he goes into, but when he runs into a real fighter like
53:31
he he doesn't have anything for him. So he can knock out Denise here,
53:36
maybe he can have a cardio edge and come on late, and then
53:38
maybe he wants to turn on if he wants to put the wrestling shoes on,
53:42
possibly he could do that too. So I feel like there's a lot
53:44
of ways that he could score well. But what I like most about him
53:47
is that he is gonna be low owned, and if he does win,
53:51
he's gonna score a lot of points most likely, and he'll kill off close
53:53
to half of the field on the Danise side. So I think Lane makes
53:57
a lot of sense as a low owned leverage play on this card. But
54:00
more often than I think Denise wins in the first round by knocking him out
54:06
because he is pretty aggressive in the first round. His striking looks like he
54:08
actually knows what he's doing, and I think that Lane's probably in trouble in
54:15
the first two three minutes of this fight unless he lands a big shot himself.
54:17
So I'm gonna be loading up on this fight. This is probably eighty
54:21
five percent or more of my total exposure, but I like Denise to be
54:28
in maybe half of it, and then thirty percent or so Lane. I'll
54:32
be loading up on this fight, and I think that it ends in the
54:35
first round. Love Yeah, you and I pretty much are in total agreements.
54:39
Obviously, the easy picks Denise with the ownership and everything, though Lane.
54:44
If Lane wins, plenty of lineups die. Lane has to be pretty
54:47
much optimal in most win scenarios. That's how we played, even though I
54:52
think he loses. When he does win, he's gonna score. But I
54:54
definitely want plenty of Denise as well. Three fights left three I mean gonna
55:00
be very fun fights. Not often you see woman's flyway fight this high up
55:04
in the car, but absolute banger, sign me up for every day of
55:07
the week. Karna Silva absolutely bent on fire to start in the UFC three
55:12
and ozer taking on Ariana Lipski three and oho in her last three herself absolutely
55:15
been on a roll. Eighty five hundred Silva seventy seven hundred Lipski minus one
55:21
fifty eight is Silva plus one thirty eight. Excuse me, man is Lipski
55:25
minus won eighty five minus won eighty for this fight to finish Silva plus one
55:30
twenty five Lipsky plus two twenty five. I will say I was a little
55:35
surprised when I looked at this line. I always cap to put my own
55:38
odds with the ownership or with the fight before I look at the odds open
55:43
minus one fifteen apiece. Then Silva was a dog plus one twenty range for
55:49
two weeks, and then just money started pouring in on her. Minus or
55:52
plus one twenty went to like minus one twenty Ever since then she's taken a
55:57
little money throughout. I don't know, man, this is a tough one.
56:01
What I do know, I'm gonna be playing a lot of both sides
56:04
of this one because I hate the eighty four, the fig Lag fight,
56:07
the Machado fight. Of course there's a popular eighty two hundred dollars fighter.
56:12
Then you have the Piers fight, which is good. But I think this
56:15
fight delivers, I really do. I think Silva on the ground by sub
56:19
or Lifski, I should say that Silva can knock her out too early,
56:22
but the longer this fight goes, and if it's on the feet, I
56:25
favor Lifski and I think eventually someone's gonna go down, whether it's Lipski getting
56:30
submitted, Leskey pouring it down her a volume knocking out Silva eventually. Either
56:35
way, I like this fight a lot. I think the scores I'm excited
56:37
for in real life. Yeah, I'm probably not as excited for it as
56:44
you are. Where I do think it's a good one to target because all
56:47
of Silva's wins are inside the distance, and I think they're all in the
56:53
first or second round actually, So if that continues here at eighty five hundred
56:57
dollars. She's gonna score well and she get a knockout because Lipsky it has
57:02
maybe some durability issues and Lipsky can also be taken down and held down for
57:10
a period of time. But Lipsky's never been submitted here, and I don't
57:15
really like Silva's offensive wrestling. I like her I like her grappling, like
57:21
once the fight is on the ground, I think she can be dominant,
57:23
but I don't trust her to get the fight to the ground. And I
57:27
also think if she's not landing a knockout on the feet, she's going to
57:30
be losing the minutes to a better striker in Lipsky here. So my pick
57:34
is going to be Lipsky. There's another one where I think there's a good
57:36
bet out there on DraftKings money line decision, only it's only graded if it
57:40
goes the distance. I think Lipsky should be a pretty good favorite in that
57:44
one, so I took her at minus one fifteen over there. I even
57:49
like that one a little bit more than means. But I think Lipsky's playing
57:53
for ten X here in a win, whereas if Silva wins, it's probably
57:58
a finish and she's got a hundred point upside, but I'll go underweight,
58:02
I think to Silva overweight to Lipsky is how I'm seeing it. But i'd
58:07
I'd be fine getting like around thirty percent of either one of these guys or
58:13
ladies. But yeah, it's all because of the silver side though. She's
58:17
just been the decision one time she lost it. But I just don't think
58:22
that she can be the minute winner in this fight as long as it's not
58:23
taking place on the ground though, So give me Lipsky to pull off the
58:27
upset. I just like other underdogs to have much higher ceilings. Awesome breakdown,
58:31
Yeah, you and I I listen to most of it. I will
58:35
say too. My buddy SIGGI in the NFL betting chat, we've bet ham
58:38
for a draft pross absolutely free cheese yesterday. The definition of free cheese,
58:44
Siggy, he dropped one in there for me that that he found on DraftKings,
58:47
So I put that in quick again. Not only dfs, we don't
58:52
charge for betting again. Four Deep the merger over there. If you want
58:55
picks tools education process, definitely check out the guys at fourdep dot com.
59:00
Use the promo code ship it. But we do have betting, NFL betting,
59:04
NBA sports betting, PGA, MLB portions in the discord, people talk
59:07
about it, drop their stuff once in a while. The draft has definitely
59:10
been some free money as of late. So just got a little bet in
59:14
there. Appreciate you, Siggy, and yes, any edge of the way.
59:17
I don't think so, Michael. I think most people realize, especially
59:21
because there's no one that has the same price twice, so people will just
59:25
see eighty five hundred and seventy seven hundred and they'll know that like that is
59:30
who the fighter is. Unfortunately, three fights left, Big mar League,
59:35
two fights left. Excuse me, Ryan Span, Bogdan Guskov absolute banger here
59:39
minus one sixty seven is Ryan Span again, make sure to price shop minus
59:44
one eighty eight on fan duel. Always price shop in every sport. Definitely
59:47
MMA plus one forty seven on the way back is Guskov. My ah,
59:52
Okay, this fight was minus eight hundred to finish earlier. Now it's minus
59:55
one thousand, so this the slight favorite as the most likely fight to finish
1:00:00
minus two seventy five for under one and a half. Span minus one sixty
1:00:05
sixty Guskov plus one seventy five. I'll just throw with you right away,
1:00:09
obviously. I think you're gonna say both sides, great jam fight, et
1:00:13
cetera. The span wrestle though, like and does he wrestle early? Does
1:00:16
he make it easy as possible? Or is he going to stand in the
1:00:19
middle and bang because someone's definitely going to sleep if so, shouldn't trying to
1:00:27
find this bet that Ciggy threw in there? But uh yeah, I'll send
1:00:30
it to you, all right, I'll take I'll take you in the discord
1:00:32
too, all right, cool, I mean I see it. I'm trying
1:00:36
to find it on draftings. But for this fight, yeah, minus one
1:00:39
down. I've been Houston, Texans. After when you go to the search
1:00:42
bar on draftings and type in Houston, Texans, then screw all the way
1:00:45
down and then you can have like their what their first one will be on
1:00:49
the search bar type in Houston though. Yeah, yeah, yep, you're
1:00:53
good, but you're mic I know, alright'm back, but yeah, this,
1:01:00
I mean, gus COV's just not good. He's just not a good
1:01:05
fighter. But if there's one thing he's good at, it's it's punching hard,
1:01:09
and if he's gonna win this fight, it's probably gonna be a knockout
1:01:12
in an early knockout, and Span can be knocked out, So I feel
1:01:16
like if gus Gov wins, he's gonna score one hundred plus points here.
1:01:20
The line is kind of moving into his favor, so I've been up in
1:01:22
his ownership along with it. With the new ownership, I don't like him
1:01:27
as much, and at this point I'm I'm definitely gonna be leveraged on the
1:01:32
Span side because I think he's the more skilled fighter everywhere here. I think
1:01:36
he could knock out gus CoV. He throws hard. I think he's the
1:01:39
better overall striker two. But if he looks to wrestle, I think he
1:01:44
could dominate this fight on the ground and most likely he's gonna finish it if
1:01:46
he does look to wrestle. So I like Span here. He can win
1:01:50
by any method, and I expect it to be inside the distance, So
1:01:54
he's my preferred play. But if gus Gov does win, he's a He's
1:01:58
a Nali Yang, He's an austin in lane. He's gonna score a hundred
1:02:01
points probably, but he's the one that does have the ownership, where Lane
1:02:07
doesn't have a lot of ownership. Nallyang doesn't have a lot of ownership.
1:02:10
So I feel like I would just rather take my chances with them at this
1:02:14
point, and then I'll go a little bit heavier on Span, but top
1:02:16
three fight, maybe maybe top one fight on the card according to the ID
1:02:21
line, Bah load up on it. I'll be higher on Span. I'm
1:02:24
with you. I think Span, Yeah, even if it's on the feet,
1:02:27
I think Span, the better striker, the longer striker, can knock
1:02:30
him out. Guskov obviously that's his easiest path, can knock him out there.
1:02:34
But Spam I think can make it easy. Volkan submitted him his second
1:02:37
submission. He ever had Span much more dangerous on the mat, very strong
1:02:42
on top. I think it's Span too, but this line's not moving.
1:02:46
It actually is moving. It came a little bit in Bogdan's favor, which
1:02:51
I didn't really expect. So yeah, just because I'm picking Span, I
1:02:53
could end up with more Guskov. You need dogs. I want Span though.
1:02:58
Span is my pick, but very similar to Austin Lane fight like you
1:03:01
said for me as well. Main event time. Appreciate all twenty nine if
1:03:07
you watch them live, then watching pretty much all twenty nine the whole time.
1:03:09
Shout out to y'all. Hope you having a good Friday, Hope you
1:03:13
have a good weekend. Ever, watch it on playback. Appreciate you guys
1:03:15
as well. Like button, subscribe button. And of course, if you
1:03:19
are picking what I say earlier, if you were picking Austin Lane, put
1:03:22
in the comments why you're picking Austin Lane, since I really have not seen
1:03:27
anyone on nets. And again you want to join us at the Nation.
1:03:30
Want to see who Marley's core report is, fight ranking, slate, plan
1:03:32
ownership projections. Not only MMA, PGA, MBA, MLB, NASCAR Sundays,
1:03:40
head over to the Nation NHL Playoffs. Who fifteen is the promo code
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1:03:53
main event time Big Marley, Matteas, Nicolau, Alex Perez minus one seventy
1:03:59
five nikolaule plus one fifty is alex Perez minus one fifty five for this fight
1:04:03
to finish. Plus one sixty is Nikolau plus two thirty five is Perez.
1:04:10
I mean, I'm to be honest, I didn't even really have a strong
1:04:14
take on who wins the fight. I do think the odds are a little
1:04:16
wide. I just know I prefer Alex Perez in DFS because Nicolaus low volume.
1:04:23
Like when he gets there, it's either a knockout or he wrestles.
1:04:27
I don't think he can wrestle Alex Perez for twenty five minutes or put up
1:04:30
a big score that way. And then you look at it, me surrounded
1:04:32
by like man, give me Jonathan Pierce, Give me Ryan Span, give
1:04:38
me trying to pull up Paul in this race. Give me bos Chatte for
1:04:42
half the ownership. Give me Denise, gimme Medicic even the Silver fight for
1:04:46
half the ownership. Like the range, he has to do something. He
1:04:49
has to probably put up one hundred plus to get there. I'm not confident
1:04:54
he does. I think he'll be over owned because of the five round nature.
1:04:58
Now I will say this, maybe everybody's saying this again. I don't
1:05:01
look at other people's content really too much, but I wouldn't be surprised if
1:05:04
everyone was on that, and if we saw Nick Lau coming at like thirty
1:05:08
percent thirty two percent, then I think it's sharp and I do think there
1:05:13
is a chance we do see Nikolau coming in a lot lower on that what
1:05:16
everyone thinks, because everyone's saying the same thing, and that's why I have
1:05:20
them underweight. But again at thirty percent, if you tell me thirty percent.
1:05:26
Even though I don't love it, I do think in a five round
1:05:28
main events for these props, I think that probably would be about even or
1:05:32
under own. So any thoughts on maybe the ownership creeping down a little bit
1:05:38
with how good the upper tier is with Pierce there, Span There, et
1:05:42
cetera, and then break down this fight in general, I still like Perez
1:05:44
more though for the savings perc. Yeah, I could see the ownership going
1:05:48
down a little bit. I just kind of any main event. I started
1:05:53
eighty percent as a whole and then I moved from there. But yeah,
1:05:59
this is another card warl There are six other fights that could score great,
1:06:02
so I think this is one where you definitely don't have to be all in
1:06:05
on the main event, and maybe the field will follow on that as long
1:06:10
as well. But for me, I'm gonna be I'm on the underdog in
1:06:15
this one. I mean eighty seven hundred dollars Nicolau. He just doesn't do
1:06:19
enough minute to minute for me to think he's gonna score well in a decision
1:06:24
win here, And he could get a decision win in five rounds and still
1:06:28
not score ten x in my opinion. He doesn't wrestle as much as I
1:06:31
would like him too, but I think his biggest advantage would be offensive grappling
1:06:35
and submission potential. But if there's a knockout in this one, I kind
1:06:41
of favor it to be Perez. I think Perez is the better minute to
1:06:45
minute striker as well with higher volume, and I think that Perez is the
1:06:47
better wrestler too, So if Perez can keep this fight on the feet,
1:06:51
I like him to win it. Nicolas coming off a knockout too, So
1:06:55
Perez has one hundred plus point upside with a TKO know that he's gonna want
1:07:00
to take Nicolau down too many times. But if Perez wins, no matter
1:07:03
what, I expect him to score more than ten X. So I'll be
1:07:06
overweight to Perez here. He's one of the top plays on the slate for
1:07:10
me, and then I'll be underweight on the nickelaut side and if I do
1:07:13
start lowering the ownership, it's going to start with him. Awesome, we
1:07:16
see it definitely the same. I will say though, Yeah, I do
1:07:19
think Nikolau could end up mid thirties, even like a thirty three percent,
1:07:24
and I think at that ownership that is definitely a very solid play. I
1:07:28
do think Alex Perez is more popular. We have it that way right now
1:07:30
as well. So just know that for sure. If you are going to
1:07:33
yan Top, Petrovic, etc. Maybe do go Nikolau and not Alex Perez.
1:07:39
Always can leave money on the table, et cetera. Ownership you need
1:07:43
it. In MMA, no one does it better than Big Marley, shutout
1:07:45
sheets, who does track that? Always? It's not who you play,
1:07:48
it's how you play them. I think we did a great job this week.
1:07:51
Hopefully all thirteen fights stay on. No, I'm a two and a
1:07:55
half wait in this. Come on, Pire's that fight better stay on the
1:07:58
card, Hunter k up Top. Plenty of money to be made this week
1:08:01
in NBA playoffs, MLB, NHL playoffs, NASCAR, MMA, PGA.
1:08:06
Let's make some money this week, Big Marley, what you say? Final
1:08:09
thoughts? Yeah, man, this will be a great card if we end
1:08:12
up shipping it, so let's just do that. But good luck to you
1:08:15
title, good luck to everybody listening. Hopefully we hit that bet SIGGI I
1:08:19
just I just grabbed it, so good luck to all of us. But
1:08:21
yeah, man, let's ship it this weekend. Good luck everybody. Let's
1:08:25
ship it, baby Jacob stuff, what's going on? Have a great weekend,
1:08:28
everybody. Let's make some money. Let's see some Shipping Nation logos up
1:08:30
top. I'll be back with our man ham Our twenty talking some baseball big
1:08:35
boy slates for Big Marley. I'm titled talent. Good luck, let's ship
1:08:40
it. And still nother would have done and then step mother ans and then
1:09:15
still has mostly have pens mother with my moms and mothers still mother with Hans sp