Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Crypto Rundown: The #1 Sign of A Bottom We Are Seeing & Bitcoin's Next Move

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Crypto Rundown: The #1 Sign of A Bottom We Are Seeing & Bitcoin's Next Move · CRYPTO 101

0:16
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, everybody.
0:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back to the crypto 101 podcast a special Friday edition.
0:21
[SPEAKER_01]: It is August, and you know what that means or it's close to August It's July 31st, but when you're listening this, it could be August 1st.
0:26
[SPEAKER_01]: It is time for that part of the year where it's the Tvo Rocho Where is Tvo next?
0:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I know Brendan loves to play this game the most
0:33
[SPEAKER_01]: over the next month, we'll be doing run-downs from various different cities across the country, but not to worry.
0:38
[SPEAKER_01]: We schedule the time to deliver you the news, to bring you the charts, just show you what you need to know.
0:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And Bitcoin is moving, where is it going to move to next?
0:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Because right now, nobody is talking about crypto, but the Clarity Act, as the odds seem to go down, the conversation only moves up more and more.
0:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Tokenization continues to lead the charge, hood beats Solana, and then we've lost a moment of silence later in the show for the following
1:01
[SPEAKER_01]: this is what we see in the depths of bear markets.
1:04
[SPEAKER_01]: But could that be a good signal?
1:06
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to break that all down for you today and more as I welcome in my good friend Brendan.
1:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Brendan happy Friday.
1:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back to the show and how are you doing my friend.
1:15
[SPEAKER_03]: Happy freaking Friday to you, Val.
1:17
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, it's a good day here.
1:19
[SPEAKER_03]: Mine is a little bit of red coming in on Mr. Bitcoin.
1:23
[SPEAKER_03]: Was up about 65,000, but taken a little bit of a spill.
1:28
[SPEAKER_03]: It might even break back down in the 62,000 as we're here alive.
1:32
[SPEAKER_03]: Certainly a lot to go over, excited to be able to dive into it.
1:36
[SPEAKER_03]: But where should we begin, my dear?
1:39
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we need to pull the charts right now because if you are a long-term listener of the crypto one-on podcast You right remember the term, and I know you do, Brendan, you might remember the term.
1:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, crypto Bagel and it was around one year ago today We're at the same beach house and we introduced the crypto bagel we even put it on the chart and we ended up having quite the rally So can we channel the energy from the crypto bagel last year to propel the market tire?
2:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Possibly
2:05
[SPEAKER_03]: I sure hope so.
2:07
[SPEAKER_03]: I'll tell you what, crypto over the last month has been one of the top performing assets.
2:11
[SPEAKER_03]: And I know people are going to hear that and they're going to be like Brandon will you mean, crypto still isn't doing great.
2:16
[SPEAKER_03]: This and that just hear me out here because if you compare how Bitcoin is performed over the last month specifically to a number of different asset classes, it is the one of the best performing assets just period.
2:29
[SPEAKER_03]: So if you take a look at Bitcoin versus NASDAQ, I'll have Bitcoin staying on the left,
2:35
[SPEAKER_03]: In fact, I'll even turn on watermarks just so we can actually see what is on the screen.
2:41
[SPEAKER_03]: So let me do that real fast for good old Bitcoin as well over here.
2:47
[SPEAKER_03]: But we have Bitcoin on the left.
2:49
[SPEAKER_03]: We have NASDAQ on the right.
2:50
[SPEAKER_03]: If you look since, like, let's just say like June 30th, right?
2:53
[SPEAKER_03]: NASDAQ fell about 11% to the downside.
2:57
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, from top to bottom, it was even more.
2:59
[SPEAKER_03]: It was closer to like 12 and a half percent.
3:01
[SPEAKER_03]: What is Bitcoin done since June 30th?
3:04
[SPEAKER_03]: We see it over here.
3:05
[SPEAKER_03]: It was able to rally up 15% and even at this date, it's still up about 8 to 9%.
3:12
[SPEAKER_03]: So NASDAQ following double digits, Bitcoin rising double digits.
3:16
[SPEAKER_03]: What about if we look in other places?
3:17
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, you could look at the,
3:19
[SPEAKER_03]: other side of triad fire, right?
3:20
[SPEAKER_03]: The smaller market caps not just tech, you know they fell by about 5% if you're looking from around the end of June, June 30th up until really yesterday, down almost 5.5% again Bitcoin up almost 10%.
3:36
[SPEAKER_03]: What if we compare this to some of the leading sectors that we've seen here, like semi-conductors, right?
3:42
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, these are fallen off the highs since kind of the end of June 28% to the downside.
3:47
[SPEAKER_03]: DRAM, the memory sector, falling 45% to the downside, and even measuring something like gold over here from the ending part of
3:58
[SPEAKER_03]: of June, or even like middle of June, and end of June, you can kind of see it happening over here.
4:02
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, these things down trending back into their lows, down 8% since the 17th, you can kind of see Bitcoin over here is, you know, really flat during that same time period, but forming bottoms.
4:14
[SPEAKER_03]: You even look since the start of June over here, gold, again, falling about double digits, and if you look since the start of June over on Bitcoin on the left,
4:23
[SPEAKER_03]: Well Bitcoin again is up almost, you know, double digits depending on where you're measuring it from.
4:28
[SPEAKER_03]: So what you have here is you have Bitcoin being really the performing asset over the last month, almost two months here, where you compare it to gold, the tech sector, the large caps, the smaller market caps like the Russell is we showed you compare it to semi-conductors,
4:49
[SPEAKER_03]: Bitcoin has actually been one of the best places to not only preserve value but actually see upside reward at a time where everything else is falling and that's something that we're seeing and I think that that is going to be an important point kind of moving forward which is how can Bitcoin
5:08
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, in the whole cryptospace actually perform and hold up at a time where there might be fear elsewhere.
5:13
[SPEAKER_03]: And so that's going to be the big question.
5:15
[SPEAKER_03]: I actually think that the big risk here doesn't necessarily come from Bitcoin.
5:19
[SPEAKER_03]: I think if there's any downside risk.
5:22
[SPEAKER_03]: It's actually coming from the traditional financial space because as we just showed, I mean, you see like DRAM blowing up 40 plus percent of the downside, semi-conductors blowing up 20, almost 30 percent of the downside, you know, tech falling into a corrections zone with NASDAQ and a free fall coming back to that 200-day moving average.
5:40
[SPEAKER_03]: I think if there's any kind of risk here, it comes from the traditional financial space.
5:45
[SPEAKER_03]: And for once,
5:46
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, or not for once, but for the first time in a long time, you have Bitcoin outperforming to the upside-preserving value better, and I think a lot of the bearish catalysts really aren't coming from crypto here is coming from the traditional side.
5:58
[SPEAKER_03]: Now you also have geopolitical stuff, right?
6:00
[SPEAKER_03]: You have the Fed, and trying to figure out what they're going to do, you have inflation stuff.
6:05
[SPEAKER_03]: There is a lot going on on the traditional side, which is why I say, I think if there's any kind of downside risk here for Bitcoin, I think it stems from what we have seen over there, as opposed to what we're specifically seeing in the crypto sector, because crypto's been doing largely well.
6:22
[SPEAKER_03]: Now we'll get into this a little bit later on, but what we have had is Ethereum being one of the best performers.
6:29
[SPEAKER_03]: That's largely due to Robinhood Chain.
6:30
[SPEAKER_03]: I can will revisit that.
6:33
[SPEAKER_03]: impressive numbers that I think are worth going over here, but from the technicals on the charts Tvo, you know what we've seen here recently was three failures to go lower on Bitcoin, right below 60K.
6:45
[SPEAKER_03]: You tried to get down and hold below 60K, you failed that in early February.
6:50
[SPEAKER_03]: He came back down in early June, failed to really go convincingly below 60K.
6:54
[SPEAKER_03]: He came back down towards the end of June, start of July.
6:58
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, a failure to really get through that $60,000 level, three separate times over in here.
7:04
[SPEAKER_03]: So now what we did is we pushed back up to $67,000 for the second time.
7:08
[SPEAKER_03]: We kind of bottomed out, hit this, bottomed out, hit this.
7:12
[SPEAKER_03]: I like this to degree because we did not form a lower high, so at least we know that the bulls have some strength here and they're not, you know, seeing a lower high.
7:22
[SPEAKER_03]: So an equal high is better than a lower high.
7:24
[SPEAKER_03]: I know a lot of us would have probably like to see higher highs.
7:27
[SPEAKER_03]: But after pushing up to this, you get that short term golden cross, you have bit quaintrating a little bit higher.
7:33
[SPEAKER_03]: I think all of these are actually pretty good signs to see.
7:37
[SPEAKER_03]: Now what I don't like here is again that kind of rejection and what it looks like we're getting today is a break back beneath the short term moving averages back beneath these prior kind of highs back beneath the golden cross.
7:49
[SPEAKER_03]: It's really something I wanted the Bitcoin and the crypto chart to avoid and of course you know it's been outperforming for the last month compared to most other asset classes.
7:59
[SPEAKER_03]: And we're doing the run down here today and Bitcoin's got to throw us a curve ball and it's down three and a half percent.
8:05
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, and that has text down, you know, a third of a percent.
8:08
[SPEAKER_03]: So a little bit of a curve ball here today, but that is actually pretty different from what we've seen in, you know, we're not only recent weeks, but recent months.
8:18
[SPEAKER_03]: where you have Bitcoin really seeing less volatility to the downside.
8:22
[SPEAKER_03]: Today is one of those one-off days where it's seeing more, which again is pretty different.
8:27
[SPEAKER_03]: So what I would say here is that, you know, again, not a good look.
8:30
[SPEAKER_03]: I guess breaking beneath these kind of critical levels once again.
8:34
[SPEAKER_03]: If you are going to get an extended period to the downside, I think you've got to re-eye up that $60,000 zone with tested it three times before.
8:42
[SPEAKER_03]: it's acted as a big support all three times.
8:45
[SPEAKER_03]: Personally, I would love to see some sort of higher low where we don't get all the way back down to these prior lows.
8:51
[SPEAKER_03]: I think any kind of higher low with momentum that pushes back into the highs is a really good sign to see, enabling that coin to go into the low 70,000 on a breakout of 67k.
9:04
[SPEAKER_03]: Now if we don't get that higher low when we revisit the lows over here,
9:08
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, you've got to be paying attention.
9:09
[SPEAKER_03]: A fourth retest, you know, maybe with authority to the downside could be a scary sign.
9:14
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe that's a sign that we need another flush out to the downside.
9:17
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not saying 10k or 20k or 30k, but maybe we go somewhere into the 50,000's a little bit deeper than we've seen this cycle.
9:25
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think that that has to remain a possibility here.
9:28
[SPEAKER_03]: And it's something I'm prepared for.
9:30
[SPEAKER_03]: I was actually shooting for the bulls here a little bit.
9:33
[SPEAKER_03]: Trying to take some swings at some stuff.
9:35
[SPEAKER_03]: But if we aren't going to get that, we're going to kind of continue to get this gnarly move to the downside.
9:42
[SPEAKER_03]: I think we have to be prepared to either watch just below 60k or around 60k.
9:47
[SPEAKER_03]: And of course, if we do get that cycle breakdown into those cycle lows or new cycle lows, then listen, if Bitcoin gets into the middle of 50s, it's somewhere I'm comfortable buying.
9:58
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm a believer that the bulk of Bitcoin's downside is over.
10:03
[SPEAKER_03]: That's not to say, again, that we can't get more downside.
10:05
[SPEAKER_03]: I still think that that's something that's on the table here.
10:08
[SPEAKER_03]: However, I would want to be a buyer in the 50,000's for Bitcoin.
10:13
[SPEAKER_03]: Heck, I'm happy to be a buyer in the low 60,000's here for the long term.
10:18
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, but I think what a lot of people are looking for is a bottom here in the next couple of months if not sooner than that.
10:23
[SPEAKER_03]: So I would say in my opinion, it's impossible to fully predict this, but I am looking for a bottom by October.
10:31
[SPEAKER_03]: If not actually sooner than that.
10:32
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that that's possible.
10:34
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, but again, a lot of those downside risks are coming.
10:36
[SPEAKER_03]: I think from the traditional financial space.
10:39
[SPEAKER_03]: The final thing I'll say to you, I'll hand it off back to you just after this.
10:43
[SPEAKER_03]: Final thing I'll say is,
10:45
[SPEAKER_03]: I have been looking at the the relative strength index and some of these indicators.
10:50
[SPEAKER_03]: I think a lot of the longer term indicators are also kind of saying here of like, hey,
10:56
[SPEAKER_03]: There's deep area value down here.
10:58
[SPEAKER_03]: The only thing that I really don't like, again, I like the daily Macty, oops, I like the daily Macty, I like the weekly Macty, I like the weekly RSI, I like the monthly RSI, I like the monthly Macty, I like the, you know, angered view up off the last cycle, loads, there's a lot of stuff that I do like here.
11:15
[SPEAKER_03]: The one thing that if I had to be a little bit nitpicky about is that since the end of 2024,
11:27
[SPEAKER_03]: Every single rally that we've had has seen a lower level of a relative strength, and I've been a big advocate of this in that in a bull market you want to see increasingly more levels of strength, right?
11:39
[SPEAKER_03]: Higher levels of strength as the market accelerates as you go on or run to the upside.
11:45
[SPEAKER_03]: What we've seen is that since the end of 2024, every single rally has been weaker relative to the prior one.
11:56
[SPEAKER_03]: You got the RSI hitting in 84 and then it came down to a 76 or 78 and then it came down to a 75 and then it came down to a 72 and then a 70 and then a 68 and then now you kind of see that continuing around to 62 and every
12:13
[SPEAKER_03]: single rally looks like it's just getting weaker than the prior ones and we came right up into that same zone where you would expect a lower high and I think unfortunately at least at the moment and this could change but for the moment we are getting get another lower high here saying hey there's rally that we had to the upside was weaker not only then the last one but
12:35
[SPEAKER_03]: all prior rallies then that we've seen in the last two years and that's something that has to change for a bull market to really come in with full strength.
12:44
[SPEAKER_03]: You need to see the rallies getting stronger and not weaker and that's just something that we haven't seen quite yet and this kind of feeds into that idea of there's not as much strength behind this as I think we would want despite price action getting a little bit of a bump to the upside.
12:59
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, I know that probably sounds more bearish than it actually is.
13:02
[SPEAKER_03]: It's just something I'm watching closely to really get a sense of when the bowls are going to fully take control with a bit more aggressiveness.
13:12
[SPEAKER_01]: It's all great points, and then I'll end up sharing the screen now, Brendan, and I actually down near the beach.
13:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I had coffee with a friend of mine.
13:21
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a big time analyst over at Wall Street from New York City, and I was pleasant enough to have some coffee within this morning, and he was asking me what I thought about Bitcoin.
13:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And I was kind of just told him.
13:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I was like actually I haven't really thought too much about it I've turned on my reoccurring buys like me and you've talked about last couple weeks and I really forgot about it So that's kind of where I am at these levels too comfortable buying again We're just wet in the beak little dips every week really not thinking about it And as I bring up this chart here, it's exactly what I like to see From my angle of kind of being that you know the social media research kind of analyst on the team is hey
13:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Nobody's talking about this stuff.
13:56
[SPEAKER_01]: The tweet volume on Bitcoin ethereum's at a 12 month low and then when you see that divergence in price where there's, you know, this is the best, you know, good place to be over the last, you know, month, two months compared to a lot of other places in the market.
14:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I like that divergence because it's, we've been in these cycles long enough.
14:11
[SPEAKER_01]: It's one, hey, when these two things go together, like you see in 22 there, 24 the tops of these charts, you can lay over the Bitcoin price, the Bitcoin price is at its highest, the tweet volume, and people talking about it online is at its highest, that's where we get close to the tops.
14:25
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I like the divergence here at the bottom, where nobody's talking about this stuff, it's boring, it's not hot, it's not sexy, we've covered enough on this show, comparing crypto to the AI trade, the data center trades, the memory chip trades.
14:38
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just, it's not the hot trade right now.
14:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's the type of stuff you need to pull your research in and do your own homework and make your own decisions.
14:45
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I feel comfortable where we are, where the volatility's lightened, and people truly really aren't talking about it.
14:53
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the Clarity Act's been an interesting point of conversation.
14:57
[SPEAKER_01]: We were out at the out-east summit, Bryce and I, and the first interview went out live.
15:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you haven't seen that, it's with Josh Frank of the Tie, a great conversation, kind of kicked off our summit series, if you will.
15:09
[SPEAKER_01]: There's going to be a ton of episodes continuously coming out so I'm going to be talking about this over the next couple of weeks because they really are Some amazing episodes some great insight and the one I'm putting out next is going to be on Monday is the former CFT C Chairman Chris John Carlo with Potomac Investments and
15:27
[SPEAKER_01]: he kind of gave a great pitch to um... sure we want the clarity act to pass but he he showed his both sides of what he's thinking about in his knowledge of being the former cftc chairman and knowing personally the people who are now ahead of the ccc and head of the cftc they have a plan you kind of rolled out is a this is kind of what i've heard and from talking these people's they have a plan
15:47
[SPEAKER_01]: for the Clarity Act to pass, they have a plan of Clarity Act doesn't pass, and either way, there's kind of a road over the next two years to get the rules of the Rove Pave.
15:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So looking forward to that, but transitioning to our next topic, I think it's quite interesting to see all these, you know, these big financial institutions come out over the last week to support the Clarity Act.
16:07
[SPEAKER_01]: You've got Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Temple,
16:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Franklin Templeton had a huge presence at the Audi's conference.
16:15
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we got three different interviews with people from Franklin Templeton.
16:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Franklin Templeton, Chris Perkins from Crypto 100 got merged in officially to be head of Franklin Crypto.
16:27
[SPEAKER_01]: We got a lot of his teammates on the pod and got to hang out with Chris himself there.
16:31
[SPEAKER_01]: So super cool week, a lot of awesome interviews going up, but it easily transitions us into our next topic of, you know,
16:42
[SPEAKER_01]: In the 30% now obviously these these bets are for the rest of the year, but everybody kind of I'd up This week being you know kind of the tipping point before the August recess because then when they come back with midterms Not too much is gonna get done, but Tom Lee, Fred of the show Had a good point here on CNBC of why this matters many more than many realized.
17:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's take a listen Good clarity.
17:05
[SPEAKER_03]: I need to be passed
17:06
[SPEAKER_00]: What does it do?
17:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, the Clarity Act creates a national body to govern crypto in the US.
17:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So a singular entity, which will be the CFTC.
17:16
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a big deal because if you're, as you know, the big banks and the asset managers are tokenizing assets and want to build stable coin rails, if they have to be subject to state regulations or local regulators, it is going to give a lot of people cold.
17:29
[SPEAKER_00]: But are they for it or are they against it?
17:32
[SPEAKER_02]: It's many of the asset managers are for Charles Schwab, Franklin Digital because this is a and I forgive me for having my years exactly right I believe the SEC was created 1934 think this is a 1934 type moment the reason the SEC was created is because
17:53
[SPEAKER_02]: state regulators.
17:54
[SPEAKER_02]: You might have one rule in Indiana and another rule in Virginia.
17:57
[SPEAKER_02]: And investors like I can't manage both these rules, Bitcoin is having all crypto is having that 1934 type moment, right?
18:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I love it.
18:08
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll pause it there that 1934 tight moment is a great comparison of what this really means for the industry.
18:13
[SPEAKER_01]: We just want the rules of the road and it was funny.
18:16
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll talk to some friends or family and the look kind of asked like, oh, you know, the clarity act is not looking good.
18:23
[SPEAKER_01]: It's over for crypto now right and it's like, no, they said if it passed or like, oh, you happy it doesn't look like it's going to pass because like if it did pass, it would be over.
18:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's obviously a lot of people in the industry, you know, understand.
18:35
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, hey, the people, the good actors in the industry want this to pass.
18:38
[SPEAKER_01]: We want the rules of the road.
18:40
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I mean, Tevo, stop me at any point.
18:44
[SPEAKER_03]: I might get a little bit off the rails here.
18:47
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that
18:49
[SPEAKER_03]: heart of the reason this thing isn't getting past and again we never get political but I think a little bit of it is political I've seen like people on on on one side basically saying oh well we don't like what's happened here with the president and his crypto stuff and obviously he has exposure there
19:08
[SPEAKER_03]: I just think that this is the kind of thing, right?
19:11
[SPEAKER_03]: Because it involves the monetary side of things.
19:14
[SPEAKER_03]: Just apolitical look at it, set up the structure, if you don't like him doing it, then create save cards.
19:20
[SPEAKER_03]: But I do feel like this has been blocked for too long, and you have two sides to it, right?
19:25
[SPEAKER_03]: You know whose name we didn't see on that list earlier was JP Morgan, right?
19:28
[SPEAKER_03]: Jamie Diamond, not very happy about the Clarity Act.
19:31
[SPEAKER_03]: You have a lot of the other asset managers and banks that have come around and said we do support this.
19:36
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it's time.
19:37
[SPEAKER_03]: I think you're seeing increasingly more pressure to get this thing passed.
19:42
[SPEAKER_03]: And I don't think that I don't know.
19:45
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't like the reasons.
19:46
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think the reasons for it being prevented from being passed are just not in my opinion.
19:51
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that this is something where we can come together.
19:54
[SPEAKER_03]: We can get this thing passed.
19:55
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not going to be perfect.
19:56
[SPEAKER_03]: I've been a big advocate of there's going to be given take on both sides.
20:00
[SPEAKER_03]: I just don't feel like there has been given take on both sides.
20:03
[SPEAKER_03]: It feels like one side's willing to give some, and the other side's not willing to give any.
20:07
[SPEAKER_03]: And again, not just talking about the political side.
20:09
[SPEAKER_03]: You look at what JP Morgan has said, or Jamie Diamond has said.
20:12
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, very one-sided of, we believe it should be this way, and they're really not willing to give any leeway.
20:18
[SPEAKER_03]: But I think you see that happening on a couple of fronts and it's frustrating because who pays the price here?
20:24
[SPEAKER_03]: It's the innovators, it's the builders, it's the everyday person like you and I where you see all these other sectors going on these historic runs, right?
20:31
[SPEAKER_03]: Metals going on runs, AI sector going on runs, S&P hitting new all-time highs, NASDAQ hitting new all-time highs.
20:37
[SPEAKER_03]: And then you still have like millions of Americans who are invested in this and they're waiting to get this.
20:42
[SPEAKER_03]: And, you know, games are being played to prevent this and I think that the average listener probably finds that frustrating because it's been going on for too long now.
20:52
[SPEAKER_03]: And people are just like, all right, enough, like everyone act like adults.
20:56
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's get this thing past the way that it needs to.
21:00
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's what we're ready to see.
21:02
[SPEAKER_03]: So that's how I feel.
21:03
[SPEAKER_03]: I think there's mounting frustration here.
21:06
[SPEAKER_03]: And people just want to see this past and the unfortunate thing is, you know, Congress is about to go in the recess here, which means that it basically, you know, as an extremely low odds of getting passed until like October, um, when they start coming back towards like September, October.
21:23
[SPEAKER_03]: And then you go straight in the midterms, right?
21:26
[SPEAKER_03]: October, November, big midterm push.
21:28
[SPEAKER_03]: And then all the sudden, you know,
21:30
[SPEAKER_03]: offices might change, and then you have new years, right?
21:33
[SPEAKER_03]: You have Thanksgiving, you have Christmas, you have new years after that, then you're looking into next year, you could have new people in office by then, and then it kind of just kicks this can down the road.
21:42
[SPEAKER_03]: So, I think it's time, I mean, listen, I can state my opinion, I think a lot of people have said it's time, but especially with the mounting support from the traditional financial
21:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and again, you're just going to see whether they were just talking points of bluffs or points of action, you know, Coinbase has said, hey, if this doesn't pass, we're going to start moving, you know, large amounts of our business offshore, and that was kind of the, one of the pushing points is like, hey, keep this on shore, you know, make us the leaders in this space.
22:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, there's a huge economy around it, huge business, you know, we've been here
22:20
[SPEAKER_01]: for years making podcasts.
22:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And then we just feed off the entire economy as a whole.
22:25
[SPEAKER_01]: So it'll be interesting.
22:26
[SPEAKER_01]: We're obviously going to keep it track here.
22:27
[SPEAKER_01]: But the industry, I find the most interesting is like the industry just kind of continues to move on, right?
22:35
[SPEAKER_01]: The tokenization boom is happening.
22:37
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm a 522% increase in tokenized equity holders year to date, again, just showing that the demands there both in the US but also globally.
22:46
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the whole point is unlocking the financial system and locking the ability to invest to people around the world with tokenized assets on the leader, seemingly.
22:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, is hood chain.
22:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean Robin Hood just absolutely taking the ball passing Salana.
23:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, that again, I think this has been Robin Hood shout out to their PR team, shout out to their building team, you know, they've owned the summer.
23:09
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been a hood summer.
23:11
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, it has been and they've been, I think, one of the big drivers of this run.
23:16
[SPEAKER_03]: You look at like the statistics that they put up.
23:18
[SPEAKER_03]: This is a great one.
23:20
[SPEAKER_03]: flipping Solana to become the number one chain by RWA holders in the world is impressive because how long have they been around in really active white like a few weeks and they're putting in these kind of numbers more than Solana more than Ethereum more than base.
23:37
[SPEAKER_03]: It's wildly impressive, but I think that that's just kind of the nature of what they're doing, right?
23:43
[SPEAKER_03]: They basically said, we want to tokenize everything.
23:45
[SPEAKER_03]: We want you to be able to trade any kind of contract, any kind of asset at any point in the day.
23:51
[SPEAKER_03]: And they're just barely dipping their toes into what's happening here.
23:56
[SPEAKER_03]: Right?
23:56
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not even allowed in the US yet, and they're already seeing this kind of activity.
24:01
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, imagine if they continue to improve this, and they say everyone, you know, every country is allowed to do this, even the United States, which is a huge market.
24:08
[SPEAKER_03]: All some people can start trading through the weekend.
24:11
[SPEAKER_03]: They can start trading 24-7.
24:13
[SPEAKER_03]: If you didn't have access to these assets now, you can.
24:16
[SPEAKER_03]: I think it'd be really cool if you could trade, you know, tokenized, option through the weekend, tokenized futures contracts through the
24:25
[SPEAKER_03]: Stuff like that, like anyone trade any asset anytime, anywhere.
24:29
[SPEAKER_03]: That's kind of the way that we're moving.
24:31
[SPEAKER_03]: But yeah, Robin Hood chain has been a massive success.
24:33
[SPEAKER_03]: You look at some of their decks falling and has been incredible.
24:37
[SPEAKER_03]: Their activity has been pretty shocking.
24:40
[SPEAKER_03]: Obviously, RWA's have been the big play here.
24:43
[SPEAKER_03]: But,
24:44
[SPEAKER_03]: I think we're going to continue to see a bigger push into RWA's and tokenization.
24:48
[SPEAKER_03]: I was just looking at, I can't remember if I posted this.
24:53
[SPEAKER_03]: But I was just looking at, I think it was B&Y melon talking about their plans.
24:58
[SPEAKER_03]: Obviously, Black Rocks talked about their plans.
25:00
[SPEAKER_03]: A number of other different banks and asset managers are all getting into this stuff and saying, you know, listen, we think tokenization is here to stay and it makes sense.
25:09
[SPEAKER_03]: So,
25:10
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I think if there's a sector to watch out for it now, it's probably tokenization.
25:14
[SPEAKER_03]: I know Ando who we've had on and we've talked about before, you know, aside from the just fundamental success that they've seen, the token price has been going pretty crazy to the upside lately on a nice little breakout.
25:29
[SPEAKER_03]: And I don't think that's a coincidence again.
25:32
[SPEAKER_03]: what you're seeing here is tokenization is growing.
25:34
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think the stops anytime soon.
25:36
[SPEAKER_03]: And Robinhood, friend of the show, very bullish on them because they're one of the, I was gonna say like one of the best performers, they're one of the leaders at doing it at this current day.
25:49
[SPEAKER_03]: If that makes sense, right?
25:50
[SPEAKER_03]: The way that they're doing it and I think the way that you can get access to it is super easy.
25:55
[SPEAKER_03]: So, don't wanna like overglays, but obviously Robinhood, friend of the show we've had them on before.
26:00
[SPEAKER_03]: They're one of the leaders in this.
26:01
[SPEAKER_03]: have to give the respect to where it's due.
26:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely.
26:05
[SPEAKER_01]: We love our friends over at Robinhood.
26:07
[SPEAKER_01]: So many have been on over the years.
26:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, just the famous Robinhood call that we gave out at nine dollars a share.
26:15
[SPEAKER_01]: People forget.
26:16
[SPEAKER_03]: Yep.
26:17
[SPEAKER_01]: People forget.
26:17
[SPEAKER_01]: A lot of people in this beach house love the nine dollar Robinhood call.
26:20
[SPEAKER_01]: And friend of the show here is with us.
26:23
[SPEAKER_03]: I think that was in the heart of the last bear market, too.
26:25
[SPEAKER_03]: We looked at it and they were of the, yeah, and we were looking at this thing.
26:30
[SPEAKER_03]: And I think you were the one to catch it.
26:32
[SPEAKER_03]: And you were like, dude, look at the crypto progress that they're making.
26:35
[SPEAKER_03]: Even in a bear market, and man was it, right?
26:39
[SPEAKER_01]: It came out of the pie.
26:41
[SPEAKER_01]: it's a bit of a head of crypto there are GM of crypto at the time he came on and laid out this whole plan and it was just like it was an hour-long podcast of this this planned a build in this bear market I was like all right this this isn't going away so it was uh... you know is no brainer and so you can kind of take again if you'll see you know I don't you know that's the
27:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, there's not a 10X.
27:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think in the next two years for hood again here at least stock price wise, but it's good to see people build it's it's it and they think that's Kind of what we talked about and just the great podcast that we've had what we had Robinhood we've had Coinbase and Bryce and I went to the summit you're going to be getting you know 15 more interviews out of the summit and in and there's a lot of positivity in the space When price action isn't there so again, that's another another sign that you like to see
27:32
[SPEAKER_01]: A moment of silence for the fallen ones is the title of our next segment here and as much as there's a lot of positive stuff in the space There's been some negative as well with projects exchanges shutting down and disappearing in 2026 and off the top obviously that sad We don't remember why we don't want people to lose money.
27:49
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't want people to lose jobs But the history shows when this stuff is especially the exchanges start
27:56
[SPEAKER_01]: up.
27:57
[SPEAKER_01]: That can be a sign of kind of a bottoming signal.
28:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, it's one of those data points that, you know, if you go back in history and kind of overlay some charts, you can see that, you know, and the depths of the bear when people are over leveraged and they aren't using proper risk management, you know, things have to close up shop.
28:14
[SPEAKER_01]: So what do you take from this list?
28:16
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a pretty big list for 26.
28:18
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I mean, let's just go through a few of these bitnecks, pin around for so long, right?
28:23
[SPEAKER_03]: Arthur Hayes, the big guy behind there, everyone knows him, bitmart.
28:27
[SPEAKER_03]: That's the big one to really go under here as of recently.
28:31
[SPEAKER_03]: On top of that, I mean, a lot of names that I recognize Moonbeam, Cypher, Loop Spring, Radiant, you have Redstone.
28:40
[SPEAKER_03]: I remember them because I liked gaming a lot.
28:43
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's keep going down a couple other big names.
28:46
[SPEAKER_03]: You have syndicate labs.
28:47
[SPEAKER_03]: That was another one that, you know, I was, you know, it's unfortunate.
28:52
[SPEAKER_03]: Continue going down, who else do we have?
28:55
[SPEAKER_03]: We have block native balancer.
28:59
[SPEAKER_03]: Polynomial, Magic Eaton Wallet, that was Magic Eaton, the EDM, Dap Rate R, Parsec, Bitcoin, Block Fills, another big name, Gold Finch, RIP, that one hurt.
29:15
[SPEAKER_03]: I know what hurt me.
29:17
[SPEAKER_03]: Who else do we have here?
29:19
[SPEAKER_03]: You have zero network, you have, I mean, the list goes on, right?
29:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Prism.
29:25
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a big list, and we've had a lot of people
29:28
[SPEAKER_01]: the summit or the podcast over the years.
29:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, again, there's been positive times for all these companies are at least most of them.
29:35
[SPEAKER_01]: The ones that Brendan said, and they were working on interesting stuff.
29:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but you know, again, it's, it's a business.
29:42
[SPEAKER_01]: So if it's not working, it's got to close down and when your industry takes it down turn, it's, you know, the people got to close up shop.
29:48
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just how it works.
29:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's part of the, you know, the business cycle is a whole.
29:54
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, it is.
29:55
[SPEAKER_03]: It's unfortunately part of the cycle, but there is good news to come and scroll down real fast.
30:00
[SPEAKER_03]: I thought I saw someone who's a friend of the pod over here.
30:04
[SPEAKER_03]: There I say, a founder of the pod, even talking about this.
30:07
[SPEAKER_03]: So shout out Aaron, we love Aaron, aka Pete's in mind, absolutely legendary over here in former co-host.
30:15
[SPEAKER_03]: I saw him commenting.
30:16
[SPEAKER_03]: We saw that right before we got on here.
30:18
[SPEAKER_03]: We're like, oh, look, it's Aaron.
30:21
[SPEAKER_03]: But there is good news to come out of this.
30:23
[SPEAKER_03]: And the good news is if we go to the next slide, T.V.
30:25
[SPEAKER_03]: over the next post, what you see is historically a bottom comes in after these kind of wipeout events.
30:32
[SPEAKER_03]: You have these big casualty events, the bodies float up to the surface.
30:38
[SPEAKER_03]: And you see that out of these below up events,
30:43
[SPEAKER_03]: Historically the markets find a bottom around these areas, you know, you go back to Mount Gawks and then bit grill and then FTX.
30:50
[SPEAKER_03]: Now you have bit martin bit mex.
30:53
[SPEAKER_03]: And the list goes on.
30:54
[SPEAKER_03]: And yeah, you know, historically there's a lot of upside that can be seen after these, you know, see 11,000 and then 2,000 and then 700.
31:03
[SPEAKER_03]: And you know, now if you're looking at this saying, okay, well, what if it's even half of that, which is what they're going to measure here,
31:08
[SPEAKER_03]: you'd be still looking at a tremendous amount of upside for Bitcoin, so yeah I mean this is what you look for, you look for the blood in the streets, you look for the bodies to be rising to the surface and historically that has acted as a bottom signal.
31:25
[SPEAKER_03]: We'll have to wait and see if that remains true this time.
31:27
[SPEAKER_03]: But
31:28
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, as we've said, Tivo, despite whatever kind of downside may be left, I want to be a buyer down here.
31:34
[SPEAKER_03]: If it's 60, what?
31:36
[SPEAKER_03]: 62,000, which is I think where we're at right now, yeah, 62,000, or if we're at 55,000, I'm not going to care that much.
31:44
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, I'm looking a year, two years, three years out.
31:47
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not going to really care too much, whether I bought it 62 or 55, and just buying a little bit every day.
31:53
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a great point.
31:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And then I just want to give out a shout out to the chat real quick pretty active chat for Friday.
31:58
[SPEAKER_01]: We got Jim from Orlando.
32:00
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got Kevin from Lakeland Florida Boys in the house with you, Brendan.
32:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm over here New Jersey.
32:04
[SPEAKER_01]: We got the band it, active as always appreciate everybody listening on a Friday.
32:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Let us know in the comments if you're new here where you're watching from.
32:13
[SPEAKER_01]: We love to
32:13
[SPEAKER_01]: see all the different states sometimes we go international which is always fun Let us know where you're watching in from today.
32:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Give this video a like if you're new bottom right click our logo subscribe We do this every week some good news out of exchanges failing FDX paying back some creditors this week $900 million going out creditors tomorrow.
32:34
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a fifth distribution around total payouts out to 10 billion now since the collapse in 2022
32:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, it's good for the creditors.
32:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they're they're making.
32:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I know a lot of individuals.
32:45
[SPEAKER_01]: I've really got hurt from this, but It's been fascinating to follow this journey if you really dig into what FTX had stake in.
32:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was like anthropic right space X. Yeah.
32:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, as much of a scumbag Sam Bankman freed was and got caught being a fraud
33:04
[SPEAKER_01]: he did have an eye for some investments you know like I had quite the portfolio and if he wasn't you know if he did it the right way he could be sitting pretty right now but instead he's uh he's not he's behind bars so it's always interesting to hear the FTX news the real is I always set on the show the real winners of the FTX bankruptcy with the lawyers holy cow what uh a bunch of legends uh they they got quite the paycheck there
33:29
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... what did you put here s r i p leopold it's wrap up with that and we can take some questions in the chat if there are any
33:37
[SPEAKER_03]: This is a big one.
33:38
[SPEAKER_03]: So again, this kind of fits into that theme of when there's blood in the streets.
33:43
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, look to be, look to be the bull.
33:47
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, that's kind of my stance on this.
33:48
[SPEAKER_03]: There's blood in the streets.
33:49
[SPEAKER_03]: There's body floating to the surface.
33:52
[SPEAKER_03]: This was more so on the traditional financial side, but I still think it fits into the theme that we were just talking about a few minutes ago, right?
33:58
[SPEAKER_03]: With Bitmart and Bitmax and all the other names, blowing up.
34:02
[SPEAKER_03]: This is one on the traditional financial side.
34:06
[SPEAKER_03]: Dare I say, like, legendary, like, generational run, century-wide run, probably one of the craziest stories of the century.
34:20
[SPEAKER_03]: What this guy did is, is young.
34:21
[SPEAKER_03]: I think he just turned 25, he was like 24 years old.
34:24
[SPEAKER_03]: I think he was like 23 or something, 22 when he started his hedge fund, which was called situational awareness.
34:35
[SPEAKER_03]: I want to say they started, I think, at $225 million and he wrote it from $225 million to $45 billion in two years to Evo.
34:40
[SPEAKER_03]: It is ridiculous to $225 million to $45 billion in like two years time, under two years I believe.
34:55
[SPEAKER_03]: insane run he was doing quarters where he was making hundreds of percent quarter after quarter after quarter and it was compounding and everyone thought he was the biggest genius he's just young guy used to work for open ai left it to do this is this is oh this is the leopold yes that's what you said sorry sorry yeah i didn't know i read the name i've always just the name always had a picture they'd picture the guy all the time on x i didn't realize this was the same kid
35:23
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, same kid and he was the chosen one.
35:30
[SPEAKER_03]: He was the chosen one and RIP as of yesterday.
35:34
[SPEAKER_03]: We got the news to you know way he I guess it got a little bit too over ambitious the generational run is over and
35:45
[SPEAKER_03]: uh... in a team i don't want to get you in trouble with the that the group to come in and and swoop them up and buy all the assets was citadel and and good good good yeah friend of the show um...
35:57
[SPEAKER_03]: But yeah, it basically came at a time where I believe on the 24th he was saying, like this is one of the best buying opportunities that we've ever seen, we wanna buy the dip, but I believe that they were leveraged at like four times.
36:10
[SPEAKER_03]: And it just the dip was too big.
36:12
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, some of these things fell by, as we saw, like a lot of those DRAM plays in semi-plays, fell by 30, 40, 50%
36:21
[SPEAKER_03]: and he was levered up, and it was just too much.
36:23
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think they could raise enough cash, and they had to sell off from their peak of 45 billion, and then they sold a majority chunk.
36:32
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think it's exactly clarified, but most of the assets sold off for around 10 billion.
36:38
[SPEAKER_03]: So down from 45 to 10, which obviously still a generational run, doing that kind of move.
36:42
[SPEAKER_03]: But RIP, one of the most legendary figures that we've seen in the space for a long time,
36:52
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, leverage you'll do you in if you get two levered up like that.
36:56
[SPEAKER_03]: It's crazy having $45 billion and being levered up almost at 4x there.
37:03
[SPEAKER_03]: You would expect that as you get bigger, typically people see you use less leverage, the bigger they get.
37:08
[SPEAKER_03]: Right.
37:09
[SPEAKER_03]: But it almost seemed, and I don't know where he was at the start, but it almost seems like he got more levered the bigger he got.
37:17
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's just the recipe for disaster.
37:19
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's kind of what we saw back in crypto, right?
37:21
[SPEAKER_03]: Back in October of last year, we saw the crypto space getting the most levered they'd have ever gotten.
37:28
[SPEAKER_03]: Now you're seeing that happen in South Korea, with the Cosby.
37:31
[SPEAKER_03]: You're seeing it happen here with our body over at situational awareness, yeah, tragedy.
37:39
[SPEAKER_03]: But again, you typically see big blowups happen as a reset.
37:45
[SPEAKER_03]: And out of these things come opportunity, and Citadel's the one to jump on this.
37:51
[SPEAKER_03]: But I think, again, the same idea kind of applies over to crypto as well.
37:56
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, couldn't agree more and there's you know there's always something to talk about that's what we love doing these shows.
38:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I appreciate you joining us on a Friday Brendan.
38:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for your insight your technical analysis again if anybody's interested more getting more involved with Brendan Bryce the whole entire team check the links below we've got the one dollar trials when we do the lives on YouTube
38:14
[SPEAKER_01]: We appreciate everybody coming in.
38:15
[SPEAKER_01]: We had Florida.
38:16
[SPEAKER_01]: We had Ohio.
38:17
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got New Jersey.
38:18
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got I figure we're bandits from.
38:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I think bandits from out west maybe.
38:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Banner where are you from?
38:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Have a good weekend my friend.
38:24
[SPEAKER_01]: We always appreciate everybody doing these.
38:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And just a reminder, go back, listen to that first episode with Josh Frank from the tie.
38:31
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to be having more and more the next one's going to be the former CFTC chairman, Christopher John Carl.
38:36
[SPEAKER_01]: You're not going to want to miss that.
38:37
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38:39
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38:40
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38:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Hit the notification button, see you on this episode, drop or we put not a lot more episodes.
38:47
[SPEAKER_01]: These next couple weeks, but thank you as always for joining us.
38:50
[SPEAKER_01]: I hope you have a great rest of your weekend.
38:51
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll talk to you next week.
38:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Bye everybody.