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NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NCAAF Bowls + NFL Best Bets Thursday 12/18/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: not had a good season, Man with wookends slump that
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I'm on. The slump continues. I've reached a new peak. Actually,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna burn my browins hat Man, I don't know
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: what is going on with the Bruins arch hape? Is
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: that what it is? I don't even know it's March ninth,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I think who even knows? Man, I don't know what
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: data is anymore. But I don't even know what data
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: is anymore. Man, back with you after the worst day
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: that I could possibly have, Back with you as I
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: always am until I die at least oh and two
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: yesterday and yesterday did not go well for me. Own
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: five the worst month that I've ever had in my
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: eighteen years doing this I don't know what to even
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: tell you about this anymore. The slump, the slump, disconvenience,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: even know what I should do at this point other
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: than potentially end it all. You fit out, hey, man,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: I'm just trying to support the team. When you sit down,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: you're disturbing everybody. Oh yeah, because you're rang and you
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: know I'm messing with their heads. What's up, Birdboddy? It
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: sewed back with you, toadstool Sports. It is Thursday, December eighteenth.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Thanks for coming back, everybody. Jeffrey, what's up? Mister Pensey?
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: What's up? Garrett? What's up? Hell yeah? NBA prop parlay
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: all right? Hell yeah again. I don't know anything about
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: the props, but good for you, man. Hell yeah, we're
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: gonna have a bunch of plays. Damn. It's a bigger
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: board than I thought. Although I don't really like the
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: college basketball board. I got one play over there. I
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: do have a play in the NHL NFL game. Like
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: I said, NHL, I do have a couple there. I
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: got a couple of NBA and I'm really trying to
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: be selective in the NBA because I have a lot
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: of opinions on the NBA board today, so hopefully I'm
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: choosing the right ones out of all of those. That's
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: what I'll say about that. We won on the show yesterday.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Depending on one of the numbers that you got, you
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: either went four and two or four to two and one.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: We got the win on UCF covering. They won by
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: about eighteen, so they covered all the numbers that were
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: out there. Fourteen and a half was pretty prominent out
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: there Texas Southern. Right after I did the show, I
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: went into like locking the the plays, the numbers whatever.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I found thirty six on that, so that wound up
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: being a push for me. I mean it dropped after that.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: It dropped back down to the thirty four and a half,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: thirty three and a half, almost none of the numbers covered.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Though they were losing that game by fifty with like
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: seven minutes left. I mean, they were in the game
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: at halftime too. It was like ridiculous they were or
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: they were within like they were definitely covering, like they
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: were losing by like I don't know, sixteen or something.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: At halftime, I'm like, all right, Then all of a sudden,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I looked a down fifty points. I'm like, well, they're
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: not gonna cover. And then I don't know what happened,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: but NC State must have just left the building or something.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: And then Texas Southern scored a ton of points in
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: garbage time at the end, and they pushed for me
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: on the thirty six. But I mean it was a
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: winning day for everybody regardless. We got the win on Nickels.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: That was a nice win. Then won and covered. Uh
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Hockey kind of pissed about the King's result. I mean
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: they were up one to nothing and then they fell
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: behind and obviously they could not get the job done.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: And losing by one, I mean, at an underdog price
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: like that, I think it was the right move. They
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: were in the game for the most part. They outplayed
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Florida statistically. In some ways it was close, but they
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: had more shots, they won more of the faceoffs, they
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: were the less physical team. And then of course we
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: know what I was just referring to with that opener.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: We got the win on the Devils outright win as
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: an underdog with the New Jersey Devils. The Devil, Buddy
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: or number one, you beat anybody or the Devil, the devil. Yes,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: don't mess with the devils when I picked them. They
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: came through for us on that one, and then we
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: did win in the bowl game as well. In the
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Cure Bawl, I was correct about both bowls yesterday, So
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: there you go. Didn't want to give out a play
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: on the Delaware one. Delaware almost blew it. Delaware, they
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: got a little bit, man. I will say that the
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion one was basically no doubt. Like South Florida,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: their offense was just they were just not there, man.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: I mean their head coach had left, their OC had left,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: their quarterback was on the sidelines calling the plays. Their
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: offense was very discombobulated. I know, as I mentioned yesterday,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion's quarterback was out as well. This is what
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: you get with these balls, man. But the rest of
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: the team was there. They run the football better, so
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: pretty much never in doubt. That was a cover and
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: outright win for Old Dominion, and then Delaware won. But
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: they did get a little bit lucky even though they're
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: winning the game twenty to three. Statistically, the game was
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: pretty close. Louisiana had a ton of turnovers, including an
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: interception in the end zone. They were about to retake
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: the lead, I think, or about to take the lead,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I guess really early in the game. Interception in the
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: end zone. They had three turnovers I think in the
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: game at least. But whatever, you know, we move on
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: to today. We have another Bowl that i'll talk about
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: tonight that I don't really love. It's a weird bowl,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: but I will talk about it anyway. I have a
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: small opinion on it. So yeah, I don't know what
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: else to say about yesterday. We got to get into today, though. No,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: I talked about that yesterday. The Blues they're in a
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: playoff revenge scenario. I mentioned that yesterday multiple times. I
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: said that I leaned to the Blues yesterday. It didn't
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: make the cut as far as my plays, though, However,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: a game involving the might tonight you play the props. Yeah,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: you know more about that than I do. Man, No,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: mister Pins, you had thirty five and a half. Oh god,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: your friends got thirty six and a half. Hell yeah,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: it was thirty six, Like right after I finished the show.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: I don't think I saw the thirty six and a half.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: It shouldn't have mattered, to be honest, really, we all
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: should have lost to be honest, I mean, the fact
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: that it got back close to that number was kind
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: of ridiculous. The way that game went. I mean again,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: they were losing by like more than fifty points down
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: the stretch, so I thought there was no way that
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: they were gonna even come close. Props, yeah, well pretty much. Yeah,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: some props like it's a I mean a lot of
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: uh like recreational betters do do it now, those are
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: the books are having to like fine tune those props more.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: But yeah, because there are just so many players to
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: pay attention to, the books can't really like do it,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So you could definitely find
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: more edges there if you do it. It's just not
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: the way that I do things. Although I give out
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: props in the Super Bowl though, of course those are
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: the most fine tuned numbers, so they're the hardest props
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: to beat. But it also was a little bit easier
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: because there are certain props in the super Bowl, like
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: the ones that I gave out this past super Bowl.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl. We hit every prop that I gave out
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl this year, and like it was
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: one where you can like find props where the public
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: just goes the completely wrong way with some of these props.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: There were ones that I play in every single Super
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Bowl because they work out way more often than they don't,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: and the public doesn't understand how to play those particular props,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: so I do things like that. But yeah, we definitely
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: still get better numbers on those because of the public
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: influence in the Super Bowl. You've been eating you mean
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: you're eating good like you're winning, or you mean you're
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: eating it and losing. I don't know which. All right,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: let's get into today, man, I want to I don't
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: want this show to take too long. I had to
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: start it a little bit later than sometimes I do
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: because there are just too many games. But college basketball
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: is just really it's not that interesting to me today. Man.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: We do have a game coming up at eleven am
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: at Charleston between North Florida and Charleston Southern. I assume
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: this is a home game for Charleston Southern, although I'm
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: not even one hundred percent sure about that because there
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: is a neutral site game at five pm here, but
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: or I guess, yeah, it is neutral. Yeah, this North
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Florida one is at Charleston Southern. I just don't have
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: much to say about this North Florida's coming off having
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: to go to Gonzaga then Dayton. They weren't very close
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: in either game, but having to do all that travel
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: could kind of take its toll. They do have a
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: big game against Miami on deck, which is an in
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: state bigger brother of course, so I don't love North
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Florida in this spot, although it almost looks too easy
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: to lay points with a Charleston Southern team that has
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: a way better record. I mean, North Florida they do suck,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: but they're also they also have not one on the road.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Charleston's Southern is undefeated at home. Charleston's Southern just bombed
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: in state little brother South Carolina State by forty points.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: But I don't know. I wouldn't really want to step
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: in front of Charleston's Southern. However, they do play Furman next,
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: and I believe Furman is also in South Carolina. Can
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong about that, Well, I can
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: just look. I believe they are if I have everything
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: straight here. Yeah, they're in Greenville, South Carolina. So that
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: is actually a big game on deck for Charleston's Southern.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: That's they consider Furman to be like an in state
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: bigger brother, I believe. So. I mean as far as
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: this game, I would probably lay the points, but I
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: don't want to touch it at all. So again this
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: is I just am talking about the game to talk
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: about a gauge. The strength appropriately this one is not
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: strong at all. Charleston Southern, It's not one of my plays.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Clearly down from eleven to ten and a half. Eighty
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: four percent of the tickets and eighty five percent of
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: the cash on them right now. But I don't really
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: see the public getting involved in this game. So I
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: think the percentage there is probably just professional money for
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: the most part on that. But then again, the books
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: kind of need that to lose if they want to
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: win money on that one. You're eating prime rib or
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: prime rid, meaning you have to get rid of the
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: prime rib because you don't have enough money. No, that's
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: good man, Ye keep eating. We have a weird five
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: pm tip off between Hampton and Jackson State in Georgia
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: for whatever reason, College Park, Georgia. So this is a
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: neutral site game. Jackson States in Jackson is Hampton is
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: in Virginia, I believe. So I don't know what's going
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: on with this game. I think it's actually one of
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: the what is it, the historical Black College. I don't know,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: something it's something to do with the Black College. It's
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: just like the celebration ball that kicked off bowl season Hampton.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: They're coming in after playing another one of those schools,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: losing to Howard, which busted up a win streak for them,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: So I could see that maybe lingering and hanging them
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: over into this game Jackson State. Nobody's gonna watch Jackson
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: State as a one to nine team. Yeah, this is
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: the Toyota Chris Paul HBCU Classic. So pretty much what
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: I said for Jackson's State. I mean, they've faced a gauntlet, man,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: so they're not as bad. Like this is just like
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: I was talking about last year with Jackson State, Like
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: I was talking about how you were gonna get some
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: value on them once conference plays started because they're out
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: of conference. Schedule is unbelievably difficult, so it's gonna influence
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: their record. Obviously. They're actually not one of the worst
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: teams in the Swack, even though it looks like they
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: are right now. I mean they've played Illinois, Louisville, Auburn, Arkansas, Houston,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Northwestern all on the road. I mean, like, come on, man,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: there's absolutely no let up in this schedule, except they
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: did get a win against Louisiana, also on the road.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Jackson State has played one home game in the mix,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: and they did lose this game not being at home,
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: but they're coming out another forty point loss. I don't know, man,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: I think there might be some value to be had
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: on Jackson State in that game. Probably I would take
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: the points. The line's down from eight to seven on
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: that one. It's a low total. It's up to one
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: hundred and thirty nine, but kind of makes more sense
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: to take the points. I mean, I think you're probably
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: gonna be getting value on a one to nine team
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: that has faced a ridiculously tough schedule. So that's how
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: I look at that. That previous game I talked about
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: at Charleston Southern is a high total, by the way,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: fairly high one hundred and sixty four, So it kind
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: of makes sense to may be only towards laying it
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: in that one. What's scheduling Jackson State? Jackson State. Oh,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: they're getting a ton of money probably. That's how it
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: works in college like football basketball, those big teams are
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: paying Jackson State to play them early in the season
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: like that. I think that's what happens. So, yeah, like
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: the big teams get like a cake walk in the
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: mix there and Jackson State gets to battle test themselves
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: and they get to make a ton of money by
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: doing it. I'm pretty sure that's what it is. Yeah. Yeah,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Jackson State they're D one. They're D one and a
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: football as well, though they're in FCS not FBS, but
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: they a lot of times they are in that Celebration
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Bowl that we talked about. They didn't make it this year,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: but a lot of times they are in that one.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Jackson State's football team was coached by Deon Sanders until
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: he went to Colorado. Yes, they yeah, they have a
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: basketball team. Yep. It's actually good. It's like the tom
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Izzo approach, right, Like tom Izzo intentionally schedules really difficult
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: opponents early in the season because he wants to battle
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: test his team, which is why a lot of times
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: once the season starts going, Michigan State's like an undervalued
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: commodity because they're just really battle tests and they have
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: more losses than what you know, like the amount of
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: losses make them look worse than what they actually are.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Jackson State is doing that. Although we'll see
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: what happens with Jackson State, Like they might not make
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: like they have to win their conference to even get
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: into the tournament, and even if they do, they're gonna
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: be like one of those first four teams, you know
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: what I mean, playing to get one of the sixteen season.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: And that's how bad their conference is Coastal Carolina and
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: app State. Coastal Carolina is like a Myrtle Beach team,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: I believe, but this is still a battle of the Carolinas.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: App State is in Boone, North Carolina, which is where
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: this game is since they've recovered from that hurricane. But
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: app State they're coming off a huge win over high Point.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: High Point really good over the last couple of years
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: man a very very good offense with high Point, and
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: app State was able to upset them. App State was
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: a home underdog in that game, and now they're coming
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: off of that, so it could be a letdown for
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: app State. So I somewhat lean to Coastal in this one.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Coastal is playing like a fourth straight road game here though,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: and they did just have to go into Arizona in
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: their last game and play at Grand Canyon, and that
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: was after Coastal pulled off an upset of Winthrop, which
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: I think was an in state little brother big brother
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: situation there. I believe Winthrop is in South Carolina, if
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken, right, I feel like I'm staying that
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: all day Yeather in rock Hills, South Carolina. So Coastal's
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: kind of been through it as well in these recent games,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: so I can't really get there with that one. I
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: probably slightly lean towards taking the points with Coastal, but
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it. You're getting It's now up
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: to four and a half on app state totals in
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty five and a half, so it's
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: a low total if you do want to take the
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: points there. Scoring is expected to be at a little
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: bit of a premium in that one. So that's that game,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: twenty minutes away from Boone. Well, I hope you obviously
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: you survive the hurricane. You're alive. Hopefully it was not
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: too horrible for you. Man, all right, what other games
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: that I want to talk about here? I think Radford
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: is kind of an undervalue commodity man, Like I talked
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: about how they were underperforming early in the season. Ken
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Bom has them like near the bottom of his luck index,
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: which means that they're better than what their record looks.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, they've had games where they're just really underperformed,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: and they've had to face some pretty good teams in
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: here too, So I do expect Radford, especially once conference
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: play starts, Radford, there's probably gonna be some value on them.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: There might be some value on them here too. I
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: mean they've kind of righted the ship against some really
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: bad teams like Saint Francis PA, even though Saint Francis,
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: New York no longer exists. Saint Francis PA, by the way,
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: they did get obliterated by Florida. I think Florida won
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: by sixty or so yesterday, So Florida did cover that
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: forty five point spread or whatever. But Radford beat that
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: same Francis team. They beat Coppen State. I mean, nothing
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: to really get over confident about. Confident about, you know
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: what I mean, But it will just like give you
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: back your confidence. After you started off the season poorly,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: you beat some bad teams, you know, now you have
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: some momentum. So I think Radford might be the way
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: to look here against a William and Mary team, but
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: I think is overperforming at eight and three. So William
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: and Mary just took a loss after they hadn't lost.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: It's really early in the season. They'd won six games
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: in a row, and then they lost to George Washington.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: You know, I talk about when a team loses sometimes
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: it'll hang them over when they lose along win streak
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: like that. George Washington a team that you get up
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: for too, So Radford would be the way I would
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: look in that game. They're an eight point dog, and
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: that when the total is really really high though up
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: to one seventy three, it's a crazy high total, which
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, needless to say, both of these teams played
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: a fast tempo. I mean, you don't even need to
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: look at Ken Bump to know that. I mean, the
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are just telling you that. But it is the case.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Both of those teams play really fast. So if you
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: like offense, you can find that game on stream probably somewhere,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: even though it's not even on ESPN. Plus, Dude, how
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: does ESPN ignore that game? Like that game is gonna
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: be a fun game to watch, probably, I don't know.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: All right. I don't know some of these some of
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: these games, I just don't. Yeah, I mean, if you
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: want me to talk about some of the games I
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: haven't talked about, I will. But that sucks, man. You
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: had businesses got at dude. It was like the it
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: was like the COVID lockdowns again, except in this case
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: there was no control over it, whereas the COVID lockdowns were,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: you know, human interaction that was completely unnecessary. At least
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: this was a natural disaster, so it was something you
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: couldn't actually prevent. But yeah, I mean it ruins the businesses. Yeah,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: that sucks, dude. And then you had FEMA and whatever
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: going in there and fucking it up even worse. Like
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: the real heroes in that situation where the non gut
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: people that were actually in there helping and whatever, some
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: of them got arrested too, uh like, just for trying
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: to help people, which is ridiculous because you're not allowed
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: to do the government's job better than they do it. Man,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: That's just not allowed. Yes, sir, I appreciate you for
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: hanging out, Thank you, Radford. Yeah, they they looked all
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: right against North Carolina the other night, although North Carolina
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: was in a spot where they were probably gonna kind
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: of overlook them. Yeah, there's cloud seeding going on. They're
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: controlling the weather man. Let's not get this channel nuked.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: All right. We have Delaware State in Saint Joe's as
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: interesting because I think Saint Joe's, I mean, I was
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: gonna say Saint Joe's should be in a spot where
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: they were you want to lay the points because Delaware
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: State is in a really bad spot, is what I
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: wanted to say. They pulled off two big upsets in
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: a row man. They beat their in state big brother,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Delaware who Delaware Sports is on the rise, man, I
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: mean they almost won this conference last year. They were
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: in the tournament. I think one of the recent years
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: in basketball. They just made a bowl in football in
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: their first year in FBS. They won the bowl last
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: night in the Adventures Bowl. Big win for Delaware State
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: over Delaware Man. Even though Delaware is not that good
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: in basketball this year, that was still a big upset.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: Delaware State is not good, Let's just put it that way.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: And then Delaware State did beat Longwood in their last game,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: which I talked about yesterday. Longwood was a correct side yesterday.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: By the way, though for a SOB and that was
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: the one that I left off my card, and of
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: course it was an easy cover. They almost beat Wake
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: outright yesterday, so I'm kind of mad about it. But
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: you know, when you do this and you're really selective,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have games like that. We were absolutely right,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: but you didn't play it. You know, It's just the
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: way that it is. But Delaware State now off of
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: two straight upsets and now they're gonna go up to Philadelphia.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: I was looking to maybe fade Delaware State because I
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: just don't love that at all. Don't love the spot.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: Delaware State's actually been really bad the road for the
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: most part too, But Saint Joe's just played Syracuse almost
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: to the wire, dude, So I just don't think I
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: could do it. Saint Joe's not really in a good
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: spot here either, after a big game from them against
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: one of the big boys, only losing by eight, and
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: they were within like four or five points pretty late
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: in that game. So I just can't get there with it. Man.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: People were also maybe gonna notice that there's a common
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: opponent in here between the two, which was wait, was there?
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong? No, I thought there was a common
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: opponent here. I guess I'm wrong about that. I was
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: gonna say I thought there was a common opponent where
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: Saint Joe's, Like, oh no, it was it was Syracuse.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: What am I saying? Yeah? So Delaware State lost to
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Syracuse early in the season by like forty points. Saint
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Joe's only lost by eight, So people might look at
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: that and think, oh, yeah, Saint Joe's is gonna blow
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: out Delaware State here. But I mean it's obvious that
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Saint Jose is the better team. I mean, that's no secret.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: I would probably still lay the points in this one
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna play it, which it looks like
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: the money is in agreement on that. They're up from
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: seventeen and a half to nineteen half. Now it's headed
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: towards twenties. So there's already value being missed here. Potentially
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of tickets on Delaware State fifty two
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Saint Joe's. Total is low
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: though in one hundred and forty, so I kind of
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: worry about it, although we're kind of expecting Delaware State
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: to really struggle offensively in that game, So I do
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: think Saint Joe's does win the game by margin, but
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: I don't want to do anything with it. And then
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you want to talk about any
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: of these other games, like I said, I will, I
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: do have one play in here somewhere, which, oh yeah,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: let me do that now because it's coming up right now.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: All right, best bets, let's do it, all right, And
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: I apologize for my sinus is too, But we're gonna
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: we're gonna get real ugly today. Man. The NBA plays
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: are ridiculously ugly. This one is hideous. We're gonna be
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: on Louisiana plus twelve and a half against Southern miss
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: I mean Louisiana. They're they're an awful team. I know,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: everybody knows that they're horrible one to ten. They're mostly
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: horrible offensively. I mean their schedule hasn't been exactly easy.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, they had MacNeice on the road. They were
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: decent against Tulane at home. They had to play Stanford
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: Santa Clara on the road. They had to play three
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: straight games on the Pacific Coast. They lost to Jackson State.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Those guys again. They played pretty well actually against UNC
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: Wilmington und see Wilmington is a good team, like the
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: best team in the Colonial Louisiana wasn't bad in that game. So,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, their schedule hasn't exactly been easy, and now
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: they're coming off just a really, really horrific looking loss
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: where they only scored forty four points against Louisiana Tech.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be in a better spot here
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: to play a little bit better here. Man, after you
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: have just a horrendous offensive performance. The only way to
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: really go is up from here. Even though I know,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: as I said, their offense is terrible, but we're taking
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: points here and their defense is good enough that their
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: defense is actually not that much worse than Southern myth.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: So there's a huge disparity in the offense. Yeah, and
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: that's obviously we know Southern Miss is the better team,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: and it's all pretty much the offense that's way better
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: for Southern Miss. The defenses are actually almost comparable if
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: you look at ken Bum. But this game, I mean,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: no one is gonna be coming in on Louisiana here,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: but I'm gonna do it, and it mostly has to
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: do with the spot that Southern Miss is in. Southern Miss,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: we gotta win with them. If you remember, on Saturday,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: we took them against Ole Miss. Ole Miss was in
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: a bad spot. That was a huge game for Southern
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Miss because they're playing the big boy in the state
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: of Mississippi, obviously, and the game was a neutral game
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: that was in Bloxie, which was closer to Southern Miss.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: So I think Southern Miss their fans showed up for
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: that one man. And Ole Miss is overrated. They're down
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: this year, even though they're an SEC team. Whatever, they
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: get this hype. They made the tournament last year. They
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: made a nice run to I think they made it
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: to the Sweet sixteen last year if I remember correctly.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Maybe do they make the they might have made the
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Elite eight. No, I think it was the Sweet sixteen,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: whatever it was. They're Chris Beard coached, you know, that
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: Old Miss team. There's a lot going for them as
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: far as what they've done in the recent years. But
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: I think they're in a down year this year and
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: they play really really slow. So that was a game
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: you just had to come in on Southern myss there,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: and not only did Southern Miss cover, they could have
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: won the game outright, man. So now Southern Miss is
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: coming off a monster game against their biggest brother in
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: the state, and they had chances to potentially win this game.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: They were within four points in the closing minutes of
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: the game and they only lost by four. So yeah,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, coming off of that, I think they're gonna
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: be in a huge hangover a spot after such a
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: huge performance. And I know this is their conference opener,
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: so normally I wouldn't want to fade a team in
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: their conference opener. It is the conference opener for both teams.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: You're asking Southern Miss to lay a lot of points,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: and this is a game where there's not gonna be
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: a lot of points. Most likely in this game, both
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: offenses play slow. I mean both teams play slow. I
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: should say for Southern Miss, they just had bigger games
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: coming up. Man, they got Arkansas State after this, and
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State is one of the top teams in the
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Sun Belt over the last couple of years, looking like
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: they are again, so that could be a look ahead
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: as well. That's a bigger game. And then LSU was
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: on deck after that for Southern Miss. So I see
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: this as a flat spot, a sandwich spot, even though
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: it's the conference opener at home. I just don't see
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: them covering it man. So yeah, we're gonna We're gonna
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: go with Louisiana, the team that nobody is gonna want
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: at all. There they are, they used to be Louisian
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: and La Fayette really low total on one hundred and
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: thirty two, So this game is expected to be ugly,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: which means taking the points probably the way to go. Again,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: at least you have comparable deepfens this year. Twelve and
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: a half is the number right now. Number hasn't really
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: moved much. So that's my one play in college basketball,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: the raged Cage's baby after they lost in football last night.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: We're gonna take their basketball team, Zach, thank you, sir,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: leaving me a common on Spotify. Hell yeah, dirty sock?
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: What's up? Wait? Who beat the tar Heels? Oh? Mississippi
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: had that that I lost to play on that. I
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: think I had a bet that I gave out on
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: my show on North Carolina in that game. I loved
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: the setup for North Carolina and they had to make
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: a huge comeback in the game to tease me and
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: then still lose. And I had North Carolina winning it
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: in my bracket as well obviously, so I wasn't happy
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: about that. But yeah, I had them beating Ole Miss
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: in my bracket. I mean U n C. Yeah, I
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: mean they're they're on the way back up for sure,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: but they're not gonna be one of those teams where
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: they're under the raid hour anymore with the way that
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: they've been playing. You know, Louisiana, what do you mean
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: the Louisiana game that I just gave out A twelve
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: and a half is like a prominent number out there
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: right now, if that's what if that's what you mean?
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Last night they were they were like a They went
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: off as like a two point favorite last night against
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Della if you mean the Ventures Bowl last night? Uh
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Delaware one and covered that all right, And then I
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: was eyeing this Tennessee State U team Martin game. Tennessee State,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: I mean the spot that they're in. They just upset
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: UNLV in Las Vegas. I mean that is ridiculous. That
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: was a huge upset. I mean they had to have
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: been double digit underdogs in that game. Even though UNLV
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: isn't that great this year. Tennessee State they're not good,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: and that was just crazy for them to go on
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: the road catch UNLV like that and pull off a
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: ridiculous upset. Now they're coming back off of that, and
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: they do have Semo up next, which is a team
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: that's usually better in this conference in the Ohio Valley.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: Semo won it I think maybe two years ago or
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: something like that, so they're not to be overlooked either. Now.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Is Tennessee State gonna overlook Tennessee Martin though I don't know,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: because they're both Tennessee teams. U Team Martin's actually off
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: to a good start, sitting at eight and three, so
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: they have actually the best overall record in this conference
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: right now prior to conference play actually starting. So even
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: though I think this is looking like a major letdown
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: spot here, I am gonna be worried about. I worry
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: about fading Tennessee State a little bit here in this one.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: And of course, if you like U Team Martin here,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: it almost looks too easier, right because you'd be taking
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: points with the team with the better record. So I
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: don't love doing that usually, even though sometimes I will,
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: obviously if I think it's a very strong situation. But
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: there's got to be a reason, Like why is Tennessee
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: State at six and four laying points? You know what?
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, the oddsmakers are telling you they're actually the
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: better team. Now, if I was gonna play this, I
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: would still fade Tennessee State though, because I think the
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: situation trumps all that. U Team Martin hilariously also won
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: at UNLV to kick off the season, which is ridiculous.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: But they're in a better spot here, man. They're coming
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: off beating whoever. This non Division one team is champion
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Christian no idea, so the spot does set up better
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: for utam Martin after coming off an easy bounce back
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: win over Anne D one team. So that is still
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: what I would do in that game. I would take
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: UT Martin in that game. Tennessee State's down from three
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: and a half to three, so the money looks like
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: it's agreeing with me on that sixty percent of tickets
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash coming in on the UT
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: Martin side. It is a pretty low sootal as well,
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: at one hundred and forty two and a half, so
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: maybe makes more sense to look towards taking the points
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: in that one. What do you mean plus money or mine?
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: It's like it's at like minus one ten, like the
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: typical vague. I'm not sure what the question is like,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: they're twelve and a half point underdogs. It's just a spread,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: like it's it's at minus one ten, SOB, what's up?
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out all right, and then we have
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know. The only other game that kind of
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: interested me a little bit was Illinois State Southern Illinois
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: Illinois State. I looked at this, I'm like, oh my god,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: They're coming off a big game mare where they played
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: really close against a pretty good Utah State team, and
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: not only did they play close in that game, they
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: lost a long wind streak. So both of those things
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: could result in a hangover here for Illinois State, although
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: I know this is gonna be their conference opener, and
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: that's kind of my hesitation in fading them is that
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna get up for Southern Illinois because
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: I think Illinois State still considers themselves to almost be
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: like a little brother, because Southern Illinois has just had
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: the better history in basketball. At least for as long
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: as I've been alive, that seems to have been the case.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I see some negatives for Illinois State here
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: for sure, coming up a big game fell just short
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: ended along wind streak for them. For Southern Illinois, though,
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: I look at them. They're coming up a pretty tough
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: game as well, where they played pretty close against Richmond
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: as an underdog on the road and only lost by nine.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: And even though this is their conference home opener, there
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: is a little bit of danger that maybe Southern Illinois
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: has an eye looking ahead to Bradley, who is also
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: in Illinois, and Bradley really really good man in this conference.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Bradley in the Missouri Valley, They've been in the mix
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: to win this conference for the last few years. They're
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: like always there. It's just they can't get by Drake.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: It's basically like Bradley's been number two in this conference
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: firm well, at least they were last year. The year
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: before that, I guess it was Indiana State with a
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: Vela before he switched over and moved over to Saint Louis.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: But yeah, so this game, it's a stay away from me.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on Illinois State, though, which
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: kind of surprises me because I actually think they're the
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: team that's in the worst spot. Like I would probably
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: lay it with Southern Illinois if I was gonna play it.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Of course, it also looks weird, right when you're laying
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: points with a six and five team against an eight
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: and three team. So there's a reason why Southern Illinois
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: favor and I mean they're at home. But also the
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are kind of telling you the teams are about
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: even power ratings wise, so that I would lean towards
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: laying it in that one, but the money is disagreeing
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: with that. Fifty per tickets on Southern Illinois sixty two
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: percent of the casual of Illinois state Mine has gone
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: up to three, like I said, But not a whole
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: lot going on in college basketball today. Man, the over
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: and what the Blues versus Jets. Yeah, that was a
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: one goal game yesterday. I don't even it was, Hello
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: book even a net in that game yesterday, I don't
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: even know that was. That was a game where if
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: I was gonna have played that game, it would have
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: been the Saint Louis side. I mean, I talked about
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: it yesterday on the show, but I didn't want to
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: do it. Good transition into hockey, all right, we have
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: a lot of hockey games here, and man we have
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: my Boston Bruins are hosting Edmonton. Kind of a weird
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: matchup these two teams don't know each other very well.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: By Edmonton, they're coming in finishing well, not finishing a
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: road trip, but they're getting towards the end of a
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: road trip. They just won what was a pretty big game, man,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: because that was the goalie swap battle where both of
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: the goalies that got traded actually played in the game
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: between Edmonton and Pittsburgh. It was Jarry against Skinner playing
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: on their opposing teams, now on their new teams, and
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Edmonton got the best of it and one in what
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: was not a good goalie performance for me either, six
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: to four was the final. So I could see maybe
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: an argument that maybe there's a little bit of a
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: letdown factor here. Edmonton does have Minnesota in Vegas coming
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: up next, and those are big games in the Western Conference. Man.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: So I don't really disagree with the Boston side here,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: even though they're my team. I don't want to be
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: biased to whatever. I'm gonna root for the Bruins. But
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: the Bruins are just staying at home. They actually won
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: against Utah on their return home spot, which I did
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: not expect. Staying at home, they should be focused for
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: a game against Edmonton. Don't know which goalie is gonna
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: be used for Boston in this one. Typically they've been
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: doing Swayman for two games and then Corporate Salo, so
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: if that trend continues, it will be corpor Salo. He
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: is the worst of the two goalies. Though that the
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: Bruins have so slightly from me to the Bruins, it
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: looks like the money line did drop from minus one
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: forty five to minus one thirty on Edmonton. Osbeker is
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: still telling you Edmonton's the better team is a favor
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: on the road. Obviously, I'm not going to disagree with that,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: but based on the spot, if I was gonna play it,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: I would probably look towards the Bruins as the home
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: dog here. Uh sixty eight percent of tickets, ninety percent
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Edmonton though, so the money currently
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: seems to kind of be disagreeing. But uh, but yes,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: oh you thought about that, You thought about the over
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: uh in which wait, in which I don't know which
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: game we're talking about here today. I have no idea
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: what we're talking about. Every game went under yeah, six
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: and a half. There are a lot of six and
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: a half's on this board here, Rangers of Blues over
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I don't like the I don't
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: like the Blues goaltending, but the Rangers don't play a
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: lot of high scoring games. Man, They're often this is
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: especially ass at home though, and they're not at home tonight,
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: But it's a that game is a pretty low total
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: at five and a half. The Rangers have pretty good
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: goaltending typically, and they don't have a good offense, So
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: it's kind of a weird contrast of styles in that
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: game in some respects. Really, it's just bad goaltending for
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis, and I don't think either offense is that good.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Chicago at Montreal, Chicago, they're starting to fade, man, as
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: kind of expected. I mean, I told you they weren't
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: as good as their record looked earlier. They've lost three
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: games in a row, though, I mean they'll show up
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: for Montreal. I mean, this is an original six game.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: Montreal has been a decent team this year, so I
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: expect Chicago will show up, even though it's their third
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: straight original sixth game in a row. After losing to
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: Detroit and losing a close game to a Toronto here,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a concern, you know, playing
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: a couple of big games in a row here. For Montreal,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: they might be in the better spot though, because they're
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: coming of an ugly home law to Philadelphia losing four
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: to one, so just staying at home. They were kind
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: of in a letdown spot there too because they had
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: a big win over Edmonton the game before that. Losing
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: Montembau is hurt, so they're alternating between DoBeS and Fowler.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: DoBeS has been the better of those goalies. I think,
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: even though he had some bad performances in there too,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: He'll probably be in net for this one. If I
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: was gonna play it, I would slightly lean towards Montreal.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: Then the money looks like it's completely disagreeing with that.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: They're down for minus two hundred to minus one seventy five.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: Eighty one percent of tickets is sixty two percent of
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: the cash on them, So yeah, the market Reid doesn't
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: agree with me on that one. On Montreal. I wouldn't
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: really want to do anything with Chicago in that game though.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah Tampa, Wait what oh Tampa versus King's totals that
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: you're talking about Tampa? Yeah, I mean they definitely could
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: score and they are missing their goalie, of course, I
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: mean the totals when they're six and a half. They're
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: six and a half for a reason, though, Like there's
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: six and a half because it the oddsmakers are basically
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: telling you it's gonna be a highest scoring game. When
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: they throw a six and a half out there, it's
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: the highest total that you'll see in hockey. Uh. I
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: think it's just it's almost like they're begging you to
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: take the under when they put up a six and
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: a half. Five and a half is fishing on what
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: like five and a half? Lookie too low? Usually want
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: to go under the five and a half? Yes, no
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: vassal and a wait a third string goaliean for the
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: Kings now, yeah, because the Kings lost Kemper, that's correct,
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: all right, we have Pittsburgh out of Ottawa. Pittsburgh is
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: the other side of that. Coming off that goalie battle
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: where they lost to Edmonton. It wasn't that close of
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: a game really. They were losing the game by three
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: goals fairly late in the game, but still a big game.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: But maybe it'll be good for them to just go
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: out on the road after they lost literally every single
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: game on their home stand. One good thing for you
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: is to just forget about it and go on the road.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Although they do have a revenge game against Montreal up next,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: but I mean, Pittsburgh, they're playing so bad right now
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: that I just don't think they're gonna overlook anybody. So
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: I expect them to show up in this game. It's
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: just a matter of how tired are they gonna be
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: off of that Edmonton game. Ottawa is coming in off
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: a nice win over Winnipeg and returning on from a
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: road trip with multiple days off. It wasn't a long
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: road trip really. It started a week ago, then went
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: to Columbus, Minnesota Winnipeg one two of the three finished
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: with a nice overtime winever Winnipeg. So yeah, I would
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: still be looking to fade Autaw on this one. I mean,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: you know me, when a team returns home from a
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: road trip, I talk about how they get settled in
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: at home. They could be a bit distracted the team
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: starting the road trip, which is Pittsburgh here. Usually that's
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: the way that I'm gonna look. Man. If I'm not
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: I'm usually gonna give out a play on it, which
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: I'm not in this one. But when a team's starting
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: a road trip against the team returning home from a
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: road trip. I'm almost always gonna be on the team
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: starting the road trip because you get focused to start
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: the road trip right. The team returning home tends to
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: be distracted. So that is the way I would lean in.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: This game hasn't made my card, but I would lean
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: towards Pittsburgh. The money seems like it agrees on that one.
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: Auto it down for minus one seventy five to minus
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: one sixty five. What issue I have with it, though,
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: is that like there's a reason why Auto was a
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: big favorite even though they have the worst record. The
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: odds makers keep telling you that Pittsburgh is not as
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: good as the record looks. Uh seventy five percent of
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: tickets and only fifty eight percent of the cash on Ottawa.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: So I would do like what I did last night
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: with the Devils on that one. Probably do a plus one,
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: you know, make your own plus one puck line on
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh if I was gonna do that. Copley Copley like
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: Copley Square in Boston. I don't even know who that
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: guy is, to be honest, one's good on the power play.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: Centers don't have a good penalty kill. I don't even
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: I should look into that more because I don't even
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: know which teams are. I used to know that stuff,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: but now I don't. I just go like based on
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: the situation pretty much entirely. We do have the Kings
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: at Tampa. The Kings lost for us last night, so
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: they're on a back to back, not exactly the greatest spot,
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: playing three games in four days, four games in six days,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: all in different cities. They were actually on the road
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: a few days before that one home game too, so
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: not really a good travel spot here or rest spot
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: for the Kings. Losing against Dallas and Florida coming into
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: this one close game against Florida last night, I'm not
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: happy about it. They're gonna have rest after this, but
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: Tampa might be catching them at a pretty good time here. Tampa.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: They're a big favorite here. They are for a reason.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: They're a good team. Tampa's coming up an ugly loss
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: to Florida in a return home spot, so I believe
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: do we have that one on the show. I don't
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: remember if we did or if we didn't, but I
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: think I passed on that one. But Tampa Bay return
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip, they lost, and you know
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: I talk about this. When a team loses at home
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: in the first game back, they usually do a lot
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: better in the next game. Maybe a little bit of
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: a concern that they have Carolina next, if that's gonna
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: be a look ahead I don't think so, though. I
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be more focused on the task at hand.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: After an ugly loss at home again, usually that team
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: does bounce back in the next game. You gotta worry
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: about what their goaltending situation is because Johansson has played
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: every single game since Vasilevski went down, so he's gonna
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: be pretty tired at some point here. He probably will
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: play again, I would guess, because they've had two days off.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: To me, it is a bounced back spot. Tampa looked
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: worse against Florida than LA did last night, so common
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: opponent there almost makes you want to look towards the Kings.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: The Kings are good on the road, so I worry
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: about that a little bit, and I worry about the
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: market read here, but I think if you're gonna play this,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: you have to look towards the Tampa Bay side or
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: not play the game. Eighty ticket seventy one percent of
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: the Tampa though they're down for my one ninety one
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: eighty eight. I don't really understand that. I don't understand
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: what the market is seeing in that one and doing
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: in that one. I would only look towards Tampa Bay.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: There probably be like a make your own puck line
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: situation or Tampa to win in regulation or something like that.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: If I was gonna play at which I am not, uh,
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: Toronto at Washington. Toronto, they just beat Chicago, I mean,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's really that big of a deal.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: Now they're gonna be focused on Washington, and Washington is
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: one of the better teams in the conference. Starting a
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: road trip for Toronto with a little bit of new
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: momentum after that win, it's a positive spot for Toronto.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: You want to get the road trip off on the
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: right foot. You're gonna be focused on a Washington team.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Washington did just beat them the last time they were
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: here four to two as well. For Washington, I think
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be focused too though, because Washington, I mean
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a string of three losses where they
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: actually lost by a combined score of ten to one
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: in their last two games, including one of US one
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: of those is a winner for US on Winnipeg, but
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: they did not bounce back at all. I thought they
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: would play a lot better against Minnesota in the Quinn
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Hughes battle there, and Washington was horrible in the game.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: Now they're returning home from the road trip here, only
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: a two game road trip though only Saturday Tuesday. So
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: I usually talk about, you know, again, how teams are
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: distracted when they return home, but not as much so
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: when they haven't been away for that long. To me,
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: I think Washington is going to be focused here. I mean,
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: you lose five to one and then five to nothing,
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: you're gonna be pissed, dude, Like you're not gonna overlook
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: your next opponent in my opinion, so I think both
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: teams are in a focused spot here. So that kind
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: of means that I would be looking towards an under
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: in that game, if you know, if my total instincts
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: are right here, which they were the other night at least,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: But as as far as the over under is concerned, here,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: the total is sitting at six. Not much movement. They're
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: very public, over ninety four percent of tickets on the
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: over ninety seven percent of the cash on the overs.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: You're fading the public if you do want the under there,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: the money looks like it is on the Washington side,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: up for minus one fifty five to minus one sixty
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of tickets on Toronto eighty nine percent
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: of the cash though on Washington. Public is off of
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: Washington now because they haven't been good over the last
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: couple of games. Recncy bias maybe affecting that. I'm not
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: really gonna disagree with the Washington side. Like usually when
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: you have a team that lost that horrendously, they are
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: a decent play on team in the next game. But
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: I'm staying away from that one too. Next game is
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: one of the plays that I have. We're going right
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: back to the team that scared us but still got
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: it done for us with the Columbus b JS, the
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: Blue Jackets, we're getting as a home underdog here. We're
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: gonna fade this hot Minnesota team. I mean, first of all,
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: it looks really weird, like it almost looks way too
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: easy to take Minnesota. They're sitting between minus one thirteen
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: and minus one twenty here, almost just a pick the
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: winner price, even though they're the hot team with the
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: way better records, Like, who would want to step in
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: front of Minnesota right now? I'm gonna do it sometimes
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: I do. They've won five games in a row, but
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, come on, man, they've won by a combined
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: eleven to two score since they got quinn U's basically
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: over the last two games. They look unstoppable right now.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: But they just beat Washington in the quinn U's Battle,
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: huge game for them and winning five to nothing. You
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: know you're not gonna get any value on this team.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: And they have this weird single game road trip to Columbus.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how much they're really gonna
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: focus on Columbus when up next they got Edmonton and
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: then Colorado in back to back games over the weekend.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: To me, this looks like a sandwich spot big time.
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with Columbus in this one man. Columbus
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: sitting at the very bottom of their division here, like,
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: nobody's gonna pay that much attention to Columbus. Especially. This
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: is an out of conference game as well, so you
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: a lot of times the better team has the tendency
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: to overlook that out of conference game. I know Columbus
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: is coming off that win a good win for US
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim. But I don't really see Columbus being in
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot after this, even though they do have
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Edmonton again excuse the Anaheim again next. But I think
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: what that Anaheim win will do is it will break
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: their losing momentum. They've lost five games in a row.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: They broke out of it with that win. I see
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: that maybe giving them some new confidence, new momentum coming forward.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: It's the final game of the home stand. They're gonna
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: want to pull to even on the home stand. Man,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: because they're one to two on the home stand. I
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna show up. I mean, you're gonna show
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: up when you have a team as hot as Minnesota
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: coming into your place. So I like Columbus in this one. Man.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: Don't really see the percentages yet on this one, but
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: Columbus is the play there in that one. For me,
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: We're going right back to it. Hell yeah, join me
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: on Columbus. Yes, I'm again like most of these players
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: are gonna look really ugly today. The NBA plays are
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: crazy ugly today for me. All Right, we have Philadelphia
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: and Buffalo. I was considering this game maybe as a play.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia just broke a lost street with a nice win
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: over Montreal. But if you look at what they've done
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: in these recent games, they had three straight overtime games
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: and shootout games Vegas, Carolina, Carolina again, then they beat Montreal.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: This run of games is really difficult, man. And now
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: they played Buffalo on the road. Could be a game
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: where maybe they get caught. Maybe they overlook a Buffalo
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: team they just beat five to two back on December third.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they're gonna necessarily look ahead to
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: the Rangers, but maybe. I mean, this Buffalo team is
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: really not a team it's really gonna draw many teams focus.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: Buffalo quietly has won three games in a row, although
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: the last two were against bad Vancouver and Seattle teams.
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: But the problem I have with Buffalo is they're returning
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip. I mean, you know, I'm
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: almost never gonna be on a team that returns home
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, especially in this case. They've been
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: on the road for like two weeks. There's no way
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna do that. So they've been away for a
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: long time. And when teams are turned on from a
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: road trip, you know, I talk about it. They can
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: get a little bit distracted. I mean, maybe they'll show
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: up for a Philadelphia team it's been playing well that
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: beat them to start that road trip, so they do
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: have reason maybe to show up here. They do have
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: a few days off, But I actually don't like that
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: that they've been off since Sunday because I think it'll
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: disrupt their winning momentum and get them settled back in
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: at home. So I actually don't like the extra time
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: off in this situation. When you're winning, you want to
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: just keep playing, you know. So I can't get there
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: with either side of this game. For me, it would
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: be an over in this game, to be honest, if
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: I was gonna play it. I mean, I don't see
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: either team having a great goaltending. Let's let's say that
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: the totals at six, the money seriously coming in in
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: the under, I don't really agree with it. Seventy five
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, fifty nine percent of
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: the couch on the under. As far as the side
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: Buffalo is taking money up from minus one thirty one
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: to one forty five, you get seventy four percent of
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Buffalo side. I uh man, I
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: mean I would still probably fade Buffalo. I mean that
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: return home spot is just really really difficult. I would
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: still probably look towards Philadelphia, although one thing that would
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: scare me about that is there is a reason why
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Buffalo's favored. Like why would Buffalo, the team with the
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: way worst record, be favored by more than just home
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: ice at home in a bad spot too, you know
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: what I mean, very weird oddsmakers are telling you the
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: Buffalo is actually the better team in the spot, which
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: seems insane. So I don't really want to fade that.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: The line just looks very very fishy in that game,
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: so I gotta stay away from it completely. Man, this
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: is I don't want anything to do with it. Columbus
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: beat Minnesota early in the season, Yeah, I just I
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: don't know. I I kind of ignore that. Like in
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: season revenge, like, I think it matters more when you
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: remember it, more like when it like just happened. Other
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: than that, really just play off revenge is the thing
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: that kind of matters. Although yeah, like a team, I mean,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: revenge isn't even really a thing. It's more like the
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: recent revenge isn't really a thing. It's more that the
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: team that just lost will remember that and remember what
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: they did wrong, and they'll, like, they'll make adjustments to it,
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Whereas the team that won,
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: they can't make adjustments because they have nothing to fix.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: All right. Next game is my other play, which I
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: told you it was gonna be a play in this
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis game. We're on the Rangers, you know we are.
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: The Rangers are on the road. We're gonna play the
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: Rangers minus one forty on the money line here. I
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: don't like the spot for the Blues here, man, I
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: know it almost looks too easy to lay a price
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: with the team. It's that everybody knows is the better team.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: But we're doing it here. Saint Louis. They're on a
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: back to back. Yes, I know they are staying at home.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: But they had a huge win last night against Winnipeg. Man,
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: that's a big win because that's playoff revenge again, it's
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: one of the only types revenge that matters. Winnipeg was
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: the team that eliminated Saint Louis from the playoffs last year.
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: They hadn't played since then until last night. Huge win
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: for the Blues. Now they're coming up of that and
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: they do have the returning champs Florida up next, so
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: I see them maybe not having their their best effort
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: here in this game man against the Rangers, no time off.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be Bennington backing net here, and he's been
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: awful enough that he's he's been demoded. I mean, unless
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: maybe he's hurt. I don't think he is, but he's
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: been bad dude, So yeah, either way, I don't really care.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: I'm playing the spot here, but Saint Louis's goaltending just
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: in general has not been good. The Rangers, I mean,
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: they're still like a five hundred team, barely of like
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: above five hundred team if you don't include the overtime
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: losses that they have. The Rangers, however, are really good
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: on the road. Like I said, they're horrific at home,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: but on the road they're twelve five and one. They're
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: one of the best road teams in hockey. I don't
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: know what it is they just get to acted at home.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: I guess they have to listen to the New York
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: media constantly complaining about them. They're way better on the road.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: And the spot sets up really pretty nicely for the
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: Rangers in my opinion, because even though it's one of
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: those weird single game road trips and they're playing a
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: third game in four days. But you know, Saint Louis
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, the Rangers didn't. But look what the Rangers
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: are coming off of, man again, they were ass at home.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: They lost two games at home by a combined seven
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: to one score, four to one against Anaheim and then
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: three to nothing to Vancouver. Vancouver's not good and the
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: Rangers got shut out for like the sixth time this
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: season at home. They are horrific at home. Dude, So
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: now going out on the road, I think you're gonna
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: get focused out of the Rangers going out on the
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: road here. Man again, they're way better on the road.
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: They're leaving home where it seems like everything is just
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: a disaster for them at home. Much much better for
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: the Rangers to just leave, get out of there, focus
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: on hockey. I think they're gonna win this one. They're
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: coming off just that horrific home shutout loss again. Usually
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: you do want to look to play teams that are
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: coming off of bad loss like that. Rangers are the
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: play in this one. Eighty percent of tickets, eighty five
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Rangers they're down for
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: minus one forty to minus one thirty eight, So maybe
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: you can find a slightly better money line on this.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be a situation where public
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: and professionals are on both on the Rangers in this one.
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: That is the way that we're gonna play it. Rangers
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: money line, I think the spot is correct for it
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: as far as the total, I mean, the money is
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: definitely coming in on the under, and I do not
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: disagree with the under here. Like I said, Uh, the
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: totals of five and a half Rangers, They're just not
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: a good offense, dude. I mean that's just the way
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: that is. I know Saint Louis's goaltending is ass, but
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: you're also looking at two bad offenses year. I think
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: the Rangers will be focused just in general, which usually
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: means you're gonna have a better defensive effort as well.
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: Rangers goaltending is still good. Uh, sixty percent of tickets,
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of the cash on the under. Bennington,
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: if he's playing here, at least he's rested at the
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: very least, even though I think he sucks. So yeah,
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: I like Rangers. I like under in that game as well.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: But Rangers is the play there. Fuck Saint Louis. No
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: bias here, I mean, dude, I still don't like Saint
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: Louis from that Stanley Cup finals that the Bruins absolutely
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: should have won in twenty eighteen or whatever. I still
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: don't like Saint Louis after that. But uh, I'm no
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: bias here, man. I just I have to although I'm
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: playing against them here, but I have to. You know,
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: I don't like the Rangers either, really, I mean, they're
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: New York. But I just I have to go with
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: with what I think the right side is. You know,
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: I have to go with my where my handicapping leads me.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: You like the Rangers as well? Yeah? Hell yeah. The
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: Knicks are not gonna win the championship. I think they're
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: probably the best team in the Eastern Conference, but uh,
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: if they make the finals, I don't think they're gonna
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: beat the Western Conference team that they have to face,
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: unless it's like a real unless it's like maybe if
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: it's Houston, because Houston's so inexperienced. If it's Okay c
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: or Denver, I don't think they'll beat either of those teams.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: All right, Seattle at Calgary as I'm going through every
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: game here. We've gotta do this with NBA too. There's
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of games here. Man. Seattle bad team.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: They're coming off three straight losses. They did just lose
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: to Colorado five to three. But maybe, I mean, even
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: though that's a tough game, maybe it'll be a good
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: thing for Seattle. Just get out of there going the
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: road again. A team starting a road trip usually is
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: gonna be focused, so I think Seattle might be focused
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: for that reason. Calgary's technically returning home from a road trip,
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: although it was only a two game road trip down
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: to California on Saturday and Tuesday. Coming back home from that,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: they do a Vegas and then Edmonton after this, so
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: I think the spot is worse for Calgary, though just generally,
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: for all those reasons, money is coming in at Seattle.
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that. Calgary up for minus one
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: sixty minus one seventy five though, so hilariously the oddsmakers
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: are telling you Seattle is that bad, that Calgary is
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: that much the better team, sixty seven percent of tickets,
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash on Seattle. Though I
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: do not disagree with the Seattle side and that one,
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: even though the line looks crazy for Calgary to be
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: that much of a favorite against anybody, But the spot
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: I think is a lot better for Seattle. Again, the
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: road trip return, it might be a little bit of
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: a distracted spot for Calgary there. Oh, they don't get
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: a banner for winning the NBA copy Yeah the Knicks. Yeah, No,
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: they get like a trophy or something to put in
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: a trophy case. It's not a banner. Yeah, the NBA
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: Cup is stupid. Man Dallas, Dallas in San Jose. Here,
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: Dallas just had a nice winner with the Kings. They
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: do a multiple days off, they're starting a road trip.
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, I would say it's usually a focused spot
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: when you start a road trip, but the Kings were
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: a bigger deal and they have Anaheim tomorrow, which is
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: a bigger deal. So this two game road trip, I
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: think it is gonna be easy for them to overlook
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: San Jose. And they did just beat San Jose four
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: to one in Dallas back on December fifth, So this
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: could possibly be a spot where they do overlook San Jose.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: For San Jose, they're staying at home. They did just
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: return home from a road trip and they beat us,
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: even though it was a bad spot in my opinion,
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: the return home spot. Trust the process, man, but san
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: Jose got the win. Anyway, I thought they'd be looking
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: ahead to this game, second game back at home. I
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: still expect san Jose to show up in this game,
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: so I would slightly lean towards san Jose and this one.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: You're getting him as a massive underdog. Probably you could
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: take them plus one and a half on the puck
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: line at a pretty good price here. Dallas down for
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: minus two end to minus two plot five. They're a
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: really really massive road favor here. Probably not totally justified,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: even though again I don't think san Jose is as
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: good as the record looks. Eighty four percent of tickets,
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: fifty two percent of the cash on Dallas, so Dallas
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: very public with a lot less of the money on them.
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: The market read is saying san Jose. I don't disagree
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: with that. As I said, I like san Jose in
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: that one too. Not a play for me, but that's
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: what I like. All Right, NBA, I'm gonna talk about
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: in a second. I will be right back. All right,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: We're back, NBA. All the previous two winners did hang banners.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: I have no idea, dude, it's just whatever. It's stupid.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: I don't like the Knicks, I don't like the Lakers, whatever. NBA.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: We have a huge slate of games today, man, and
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a situation where you gotta see
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: what's going like, really got to look at the scheduling spots,
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: although I do that anyway, but you're gonna have teams
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: that are coming out of breaks where you know, I
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: talk about when a team has a break, it stops. Basically,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: it tends to stop whatever momentum they had. So if
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: they were winning, the break is bad. If they were losing,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: the break is good. And then you have the teams
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: that were involved in the Cup that are playing as
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: well today. So we're gonna talk about all that. Atlanta
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: is at Charlotte. Now, Atlanta did just beat Charlotte. I'll
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: only beat them by three at home back on November
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: twenty third. Atlanta got a win on Sunday. Now they've
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: had a few days off, a nice win over Philadelphia,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: and they do have San Antonio next. So to me,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: this does look at a spot where maybe they just
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: overlook Charlotte and they don't take Charlotte, seriously, But Charlotte,
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: I don't like the way that they went into the
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: break at all. They beat Cleveland on Sunday, big overtime
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: upset on the road, and they do have Detroit next
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: and then Cleveland again. I don't think they're really gonna
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: overlook Atlanta them because Atlanta is probably gonna be a
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: team that's headed to the playoffs. So it's a tough
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: thing to figure out For this one, man, I think
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: I do slightly lean to the Hawks though, because I
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: think the handicap really is that the Hornets might not
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: be able to keep up that level of effort again
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: after they pulled off that upset, so I leaned to
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: the Hawks. I think the money is a great with
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: that the Hawks are down from six to five and
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: a half, but seventy eight percent of the casual and
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: them sixty two percent of the tickets are on the Hornets.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna disagree with it. It's a pretty high
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: total too, so that two thirty nine, So laying the
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: points kind of makes sense for that reason. And that one.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: Although I'm gonna go against what I said there in
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: a minute, New York at Indiana, this one almost makes
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: my card. And there's one thing that I worry about
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: in this game. The obvious thing here is that first
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: reaction is the Knicks just won the NBA Cup, so
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: you want to fade them right now, right And looking
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: at the schedule, yeah, it definitely looks like that's the case.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: They do have Philadelphia tomorrow, which you would think is
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: a bigger game than they do have Minnesota Miami, excuse
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: me them, Minnesota then Cleveland then Atlanta, whatever. So this
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: Indiana spot looks like a flat spot. But I'm gonna
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: push back on that. And there's one reason why I'm
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: not gonna give out a play on the Pacers here
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: because if this wasn't the case, then I would be
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: on the Pacers here. And I still lean to the
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: Pacers because, yeah, I think the Knicks are gonna let down.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: They just won the NBA Cup. They're coming back from
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas. Looks like a sandwich spot kind of because
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: they have bigger games on deck Indiana. You gotta think
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: they're gonna show up for this game, because I mean,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: they're a team of the bad records. They're not really
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook anybody. But they just lost to Washington, won
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: a weight to eighty nine, and then they've had a
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: bunch of days off since then, so again they've lost
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: the last two games they've been offtin Sunday. Very good
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: spot for Indiana and to bounce back here. So they're
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: gonna show up for this game coming off probably the
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: worst loss of the season. And they've had some bad ones,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: but that was really bad. Losing to Washington in a
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: blowout at home doesn't get much worse than that. So
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: everything is like screaming Indiana here, except this is playoff
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: revenge for the Knicks. That's the only thing that gives
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: me pause here, man, that I think the Knicks have
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: had this game circled. Even though Indiana is bad this year,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: they're bad right now. But the Knicks, they know who
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: ended their season last year, man, and that was the
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals. And these teams have
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: not played yet this year. So that is the one
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: thing that's that's holding me back on this one. Man.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: I worry that that is a reason for the Knicks
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: to show up in this game. The money is saying
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: the Pacers. I don't disagree. If you're gonna play the game,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: I would take the points of the Pacers. But my
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: hesitation is that it's playoff revenge, man, And that's the
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: one reason I could see the Knicks still showing up here.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: Sixty nine percent of the tickets on the Knicks, sixty
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on the Pacers. Still agree
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: with the Pacers. And it was like this, this was
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: like on my card, like I had the banner like
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: ready to go, and I knew that it was a
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: playoff revenge spot still and I was gonna push that
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: aside and still do it. But I was like, eh,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know. The more I thought about it, I'm like, nah,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: I don't want to do it, but I would agree
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: with the Pacers still, though I think it's still one
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: of the stronger NBA plays on the day is to
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: look towards the Pacers. But that does worry me. Thirty
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: profit boosts there you go, hat Merry Christmas man, take
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: take the gift there, Yes, thank you sir. Yeah, Knicks Pacers. Yeah.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: I look for the playoff revenge scenario because it's the
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: one thing where teams are gonna have that game circled
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: all season pretty much. But I could see arguments against
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: it too, though, which is just that the Pacers are
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: really bad this year, so the Knicks might, you know,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: overlook them for that reason. By the way, the Knicks
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: are bad on the road, four and six on the road,
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: so they are definitely a fatable team on the road.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: So still lean towards Indiana there. Miami at Brooklyn, Miami, Man,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: I mean Miami. They're on a skid here, man, So
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: I think it's good that they haven't played since Monday.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: They lost five games in a row. I think it's
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: a positive spot. Now, when you're on a skid like this,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: you want to break that losing momentum. I think you're
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: gonna show up. But the problem is they play Boston
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: tomorrow and then New York the Knicks after that. So
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: there's still the worry that they might overlook the Nets
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: because the Nets are ass and Miami's last game was
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: lost to Toronto. That was a bigger game. They got
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: bounced from the NBA Cup, I think in the game
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: before that against Orlando, so those were somewhat big games
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: as well. So I do worry that you could argue
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: this is also a sandwich spot. So it's like, which
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: way do you want to go with this? Like I
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, they're going to Brooklyn here, so I
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: could see some positives and some negatives for the spot
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: for Miami. Brooklyn did just annihilate Milwaukee and that was
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: a win for us on the show. They won by
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: forty five points as an underdog. That made me look
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: pretty good giving off that play. And it was against
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: the market read too. We caught Brooklyn, We caught Milwaukee
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: in a bad spot there. Brooklyn got the win. But
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: coming off of that, I mean Brooklyn, sure they're gonna
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: show up for a game against Miami. I mean Brooklyn,
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: They're gonna try to show up for most of these games.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: But the fact that they trounced Milwaukee and that's how
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: they went into this extra time off, you know, I
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: don't really love it. I don't. I can't. I mean,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: I can't give it a play on the side in
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: this game. But I actually think the Heat might be
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: the right side here. They're up from five and a
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: half to six and a half. There were more I
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: think there are more positives for the Heat, just the
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: fact that they went into that break on a losing skid.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: I just don't see them really overlooking any team right now.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: Eighty percent of the tickets. Ninety three percent of the
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: cash on the heat, so the money is coming in
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: on the heat side there. I don't disagree with that
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: Clippers are at Oklahoma City. I considered this game. I
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: like the Clippers in the spot. The Clippers haven't played
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: since Monday. They've been ugly. That was a win for
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: us as well on Monday with Memphis. Memphis won by
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: eighteen is like five point dogs in that game. Clippers
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: were in a bad spot though, as if you remember
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: my handicap, the Clippers were were turning home from a
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: road trip. They just almost upset Houston, and they had
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: this OKC game next, followed by the Lakers and Houston again,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: So it was an awful spot. I thought it was
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: a great spot to take Memphis. We got it done
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: with that one. Now the Clippers are coming off that
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: horrendous performance, so they lost at home. The Clippers, they're
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: still better than the record would tell you that they are. Man,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: part of that handicap was that they're gonna be focused
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: going into OKAC and I do think they will be.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: Ok See, they're kind of in a bad spot because
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: they just lost another long wind streak. Man, although when
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: they lost their other win streak. They had a nice
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: game after that. They won easily against Sacramento after that,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: so there is precedent for Oklahoma City to just bounce
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: right back. But they did lose to San Antonio in
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: the in the semifinals in the Cup, and that was
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: a loss for me on the show as well, although
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: we got the win in the final, fading San Antonio again.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I thought that it was gonna be a
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: bad spot for San Antonio, especially because Wemby was coming back.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: The reverse injured player thing was coming into play there.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: But okay, see took the loss. Now, typically when a
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: team is on a long wind streak, and that was
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: long for okac Man they had not lost for like
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: a month and a half. They only had one loss
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: in the season. Sometimes you take that loss, it will
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: hang you over, especially when it was kind of a
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: high profile loss like that. They got to play Minnesota tomorrow,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: so that's a bit of a concern as well. They're
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: returning home from Las Vegas, although they were at home
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: back on Wednesday, so they haven't been away for that long.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: But still it is kind of a return home spot,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: which I don't like because again, you have to get
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: stuff done at home, and they have to go right
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: back out on the road again. So there are definitely
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: a lot of negatives for Oka see here, although they're
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: just so dominant at home, man, and the Clippers are
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: just such a mess that I just I can't do it.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with the Clippers if I
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: was gonna play this one. It looks like you're getting
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: more value on at the Thunder up to a seventeen
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: and a half way favorite now eighty three percent of
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: the ticket, seventy four percent of the couch on the
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: thund or obviously the thunder of the public side here,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: I would take the Clippers. I can't do it, man,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: but that is the way that I would lean in this.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: When the Clippers are horrific on the road to three
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: and twelve on the road. I mean, they've been bad
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: both ways, but man, man, they got to show me
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: something better than this. Oklahoma City is still undefeated at home. Well,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: obviously they can win without covering. James Harden is also
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: out for this game, by the way, so somebody keep
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: in mind here. So I don't know when did he
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: last play? Is the other question. He has a calf injury.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: He did play in the last game, so that is
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: actually the reason why the line has moved up further
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: on the Thunder. But that does mean that you're getting
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: a you're getting an injured player theory spot on the Clippers.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: So the Clippers star player is now out for this game.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: So that's another situation that I do like to play
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: on a team when they have other star player go down,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: a lot of times the team will step up their
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: game and play hard in the abs of that player.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: So you're getting that spot with the Clippers here as well.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: So actually another reason to maybe take the extra value
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: with the Clippers there. Yeah, Clippers, I agree with it,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: but it's not on my card here. The next game
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: is Chris Paul to Halloween party. Only three Clippers showed.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, nothing to really celebrate when you're on
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: a member of the Clippers. And also that team just
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: has no chemistry, dude, And you know what I mean,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: you have to look at what else what they've done
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: without Hardening the other games this year. But without Harden
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: it might actually not even be that bad. Like Harden
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: when he's in there, he just ball Hogs, so they
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: might have more chemistry without Harden. Next up is one
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: of the plays. Get ready for this one because this
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: one's awesome. We're gonna be on the Washington Wizards plus
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: fifteen this man. I yeah, I know, I know how
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: ugly this is, but we're fading san Antonio. We're doing
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: it for a reason. There were multiple reasons to do this.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: San Antonio is returning home for being on the road
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: since December third, so they had a road trip from
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: December third to December tenth. Then I have no idea
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: if they went back home because they were in La.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: They may have gone back home briefly. I don't know,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: but they had to. They probably didn't because they had
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: to go from La to Vegas for the NBA Cup.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: So then they were in Vegas for the Cup. They
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: made it all the way to the Cup final, and
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: even though they lost by eleven, they were within like
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: four points in that game. They're winning the game to
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: start the fourth quarter, So they were in that game. Man,
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: they were really close to winning the cup. So now
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: they're coming up those huge games and they beat La,
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: beat OKC, almost beat the Knicks. That ended their win streak.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: It was in a high profile game in the NBA Cup.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming off all that, it is a return
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: home spot and they have to go right back out
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: on the road again untilmorrow and face Atlanta. So they're
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: at home for a very brief period of time. So
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: if they have to get stuff done at home, they
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: got to get it done. Man, I think they're gonna
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: be massively distracted here they're playing this really bad Washington team.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: I think this is a horrible spot for san Antonio. Again.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: This single game back home is like a really really
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: ugly spot where you do want to fade the team
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: when they have just that really small amount of time
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: to have to get stuff done at home before they
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: go back out on the road. Nobody's gonna want Washington.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: Everybody just saw San Antonio look great in the Cup.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: Nobody's gonna really knock them for losing to the Knicks.
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: Washington's a four and twenty team, Nobody's gonna want them.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: And I know Washington's coming up beating Indiana, but I
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna be overconfident after beating Indiana and
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: you're four and twenty. How can you be overconfident? You
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? And even though yes they went
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: into this extended break on a win, which usually I
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: don't really want a team when they do that. But
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: that win broke a lost streak for them, man so,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: and that lost streak was all against probably playoff bound
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: teams Philadelphia, Boston, Atlanta, and Cleveland. So no and really
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: losing those games. They got the win. They're actually playing
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: a little bit better, man, because they actually had beaten
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee prior to that. They beat Atlanta two games prior
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: to that. Washington seems to be playing a little bit
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: better recently. And now they've had extra rest, and I
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: think the rest is actually not a negative this time
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: because they had broken their their lost streak. So I
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: think that they have kind of some newfound momentum here.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: And though yeah, you gotta worry, I guess a little
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: bit about the extra rest kind of halting the momentum
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit, But they're gonna show up for a
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: game against the Spurs. Man So, I expect focus out
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: of Washington here. I'm looking at the injury report on this.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: There's not a whole lot to see here. I mean,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: Middleton is out for Washington, though, so there is that.
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know how long he's even been out. I
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: haven't really been paying attention. He's been out since December fourth,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: so there's no real change there. He just hasn't played
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: for a while. So he got injured in that game
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: against the Celtics. It was a horrible loss for us
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: on the show. But we're going back to the win
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: in this one. Hopefully they can get it done for
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: us here. We're obviously fading the public here. We're getting
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: a huge amount of points here. I know this is
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: a high total game, but still, Spurs are really public
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the tickets on them. You know,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: the public is never gonna be touching the Wizards fifty
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on the Spur, so the
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: cash is much more evenly split. You might be able
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: to get a better number on this. It's sitting at
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: fourteen and a half with juice fifteen or so right now.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: We'll see what happens. But yeah, that is the first
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: play in the NBA, all right, Toronto at Milwaukee, Man,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a long show. I guess too
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: many NBA games in NHL games all in one day. Man,
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: it's a lot for me to have to deal with.
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: Toronto at Milwaukee. Toronto's coming off a win over Miami.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: That's how Toronto went into their extended break. So I
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: don't love the spot for Toronto here. I mean, that's
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: a decent win over Miami. It did end a lost
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: Street for them, though, so you could argue that maybe
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: that will give them some new momentum. They've only had
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: two days off, but now they're playing this Yannis less
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee team and up next they got Boston. That is
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: gonna be a bigger game, man, because they did just
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: lose to Boston at home on December seventh. I mean,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: it's the Celtics. They've been really good last couple of years.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: They're actually not bad this year either, So this could
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: be kind of a sandwich spot for Toronto here. Man, Milwaukee,
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: they're coming in off that disgusting loss to Brooklyn. I
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: mean that is like rock bottom. And remember I talked
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: about it, that was a bad spot for them because
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: they just upset Boston. Also win for me on the show,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: by the way, I had wins on the last two
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee games. Now, I think they're in a spot where
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: you do want to come back and look towards Milwaukee
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: again here. Yeah, so that's pretty much all I have
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: to say about I mean, losing to Brooklyn by forty
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: five points. I mean, that's just unbelievable. Like, you're not
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: gonna want to let that stand. You're gonna come with
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: some sense of pride. Here the money looks like it's
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Raptors. I don't agree with that.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: Eighty one percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: cash on them. They're up from four to five. If
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: I was gonna play this game, I would only take
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: the points with Milwaukee. It's also the lowest total on
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: the board, really low for a modern NBA game, at
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: two nineteen and a half, with money coming in towards
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: the under Part of it is because of Gianni's not
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: being there, but that's still ridiculous. Next game up is
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: my other play, the other best bet. We're gonna be
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: on the New Orleans Pelicans plus the points. I told
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: you this was gonna be ugly, so bear with me. Here.
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in against Houston here eighty two
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, only seventy five percent of the
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: cash on them. They're pretty public. The money seems to
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: be disagreeing with them. Couldn't find the ten out there anymore.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: But it's not football. So the ten isn't really a
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: key number here. We're gonna fade Houston. Houston is in
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: a nugget sandwich. Man, It's like when you take chicken
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: nuggets and you throw it between slices of bread. It's
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: kind of a weird sandwich. You know, it might not
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: look that great, it might fall apart, but it's definitely edible.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: You can definitely eat it. I mean, look at what
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: Houston has done. Man, they should have won against Denver,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: and I'm pissed because we had Houston in that game.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: I believe we had La the Clippers in the previous
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: game too, so I think we had wins on the
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: show in the last two Houston games. I'm pretty sure Houston.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: I thought they were gonna be looking ahead to Denver,
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: which is I think why I faded them against La
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: if I remember correct, I think I did against the Clippers.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming up that huge game against Denver on Monday. Dude,
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: they took Denver to overtime. They were looking for that revenge.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: That was still like this is the battle of like
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: who's the second best team basically in the NBA between
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: Denver and Houston. Houston took the loss again, and they
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: should have won. As one of our viewers pointed out
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: after we took the loss in that game, Houston had
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: the win in regulation. They're winning the game by one
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: or either in regulation at the end of overtime one
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: I forget or no it was only one overtime, right,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: it was a double overtime. No, it was single overtime.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it was at the end of regulation. Houston
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: got called for a trip that was a bullshit call.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: There was no contact at all, and they call the
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: foul sent Denver to the free throw line, and that's
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: what put the game into overtime if I remember correctly,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: and that's why we lost the game. Absolute bullshit. So
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: now Houston's off of that absolutely heartbreaking loss, and as
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: I said, they're in a nugget sandwich because yeah, I
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: guess who they play next. Yeah, they got to go
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: back to Denver again next. So they're coming out of
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: elevation playing in New Orleans against this ass Pelican team
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: and then they go right back out into elevation to
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: play Denver again in a quick revenge spot. This is
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: a horrible spot. We're gonna be on New Orleans here,
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: New Orleans is actually starting to play a little bit better.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: At the very least. They've actually won two games in
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: a row. Go figure. And yes, I know they're coming
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: off an upset of the Bulls, but they've had a
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: few days off. I know that could disrupt their winning
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: momentum a little bit. I don't like playing teams that
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: are coming off extra rest, you know when they were winning.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: But still, I think those wins are still gonna give
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: them some confidence. And do you really think they're gonna
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: overlook Houston coming to their place? I don't think so.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: Uh So, yeah, we're gonna be on New Orleans of this.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: I don't think they've played yet this year, by the way.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: But New Orleans is actually getting healthy as well. I
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: know Zion hasn't looked that good, but I think he
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: is back. Really, New Orleans is the only guy on
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: the injury report is Murray, and I think he's been
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: out for a while, So New Orleans is actually more
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: intact right now. Yeah Murray, I don't think he's played
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: like this entire season, I believe, so. Yeah. I wanted
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: to look at New Orleans' depth real quick here. Yeah,
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: so New Orleans, I mean this is like the healthiest
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: New Orleans has been all year. Though Zion his back,
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: Derek Queen's playing well, Trey Murphy is there. They got
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: a really young corn man. The Queen is a rookie, fears.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: I think it is a rookie. These guys are kind
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: of starting to coalesce a little bit. So why not.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: Let's let's take the youth. Let's go with the even
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: though the Rockets are young too, but let's take the Pelicans.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: We're gonna fade the nugget sandwich here. Pelicans are the
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: play in that one. There you go, Wizards, Clippers and Pelicans. Teaser.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: You know me, man, I recommend against teasers in anything
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: except the NFL. The only teas like it's it's a
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: losing proposition unless you're doing a Stanford Wong NFL teaser.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: I mean that's just the way that it is. Like
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: you need it to be a low scoring sport like
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: the NFL, and you need it to be able to
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: go through multiple key numbers like seven and three in
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: the NFL NBA teasers negative ev man, negative expective value.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: So I can never bring myself to do a teaser. Yeah,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're just a losing like from the outset,
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: like the odds are against you, you know what I mean,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: Like it's just negative expected value on it. So yeah,
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: I recommend against teasers in every single case except for
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: NFL Stanford Wong. But even then you have to get
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: the right price on it. You have to get minus
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: one twenty minus one twenty five at worse on those,
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: and a lot of the books charge you minus one
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: thirty now because they know the smart guys are coming
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: in and playing those Stanford Wong teasers, which are again
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: teasers in the NFL six point two team teasers specifically,
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: they go through seven and three. Literally, that is the
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: only plus evtaser that exists in any sport. Okay, Detroit
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: at Dallas. Detroit coming in off of revenge when if
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: you want to call it that against Boston unfortunately, my
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: boss and Celtics had beaten them and ended that long
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: win streak of theirs where they were going for their
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: franchise record win streak, so they wanted that game against Boston.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: They did get it. Simply, this could be a letdown
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: spot now coming in here against Dallas. Really simple handicap
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: on this one. But that's kind of the way that
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: I look at this Dallas. They're coming in off a
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: pretty ugly loss in Utah. Man, so that's pretty bad.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: I mean Utah, they're definitely a better home team. They
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: kind of use the elevation to their advantage. It was
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: in overtime. It was a weird single game road trip.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: You gotta expect Dallas is gonna show up at home
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: for a game against Detroit, though, I would take the
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: points with Dallas if I was going to play it.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: The Pistons are down for six and a half to six,
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: seventy three percent of the tickets and sixty two percent
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Pistons, so they were a
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: public side quite obviously. The line almost looks makes it
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: look too easy to lay the points of the Pistons there.
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: So Dallas or pass for me on that one. Yes,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: Stanford Wong not his real name, although I also have
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: his book. He has a book about sports gambling as well.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: I don't even remember what his actual name is. I
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: don't think he's Asian. I think he's a white guy,
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: but he's Stanford Wong. Yes, that that is the only
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: teaser that gives you actual positive expected value, And if
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: you listen to Vegas Runner on wager Talk, he talks
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: about how you don't even want to play those teasers
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: until the lines are as accurate as they're going to be,
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: because that's how you get the most value in going
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: six points away from where the line is, because you
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: want the market to be so fine tuned. He basically says,
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: play the teasers like in the NFL, like literally right
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: before the games start, like right before the one PM
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: because that's like the latest you can kind of do it,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: because you're probably gonna be tying in like some of
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: those other games that are later or whatever. But you
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: want to wait for the market to be at its
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: most efficient so that that way you're getting the most
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: value on going six points away from the most efficient number,
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So that's how he doesn't.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: I think he kind of just blindly plays all the
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: Stanford Wong possibilities and round robbins them out of all
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: of them. I don't really do it. I'm not really
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: a teaser player, but I have given out a teaser
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: of the week basically every week. I should put a
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: graphic up for it. I've been giving those out in
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: the NFL. I'll continue to do that if you want
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think all of them have won actually
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: since I've been doing it the last like three weeks
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: or whatever. Last week it was Denver and taking them
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: up to like eight, and I think I said the
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: Saint right was the other one because I couldn't find
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: another good teaser leg there, and I think that's what
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: I had there, as long as you can get the Saints,
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: as long as the Saints were not a plus three,
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: which they were at game time though, So I don't know,
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you want to count that teaser
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: or not, but that was the only one that I
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: could even really find last week that made any sense
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: at all. So at the very least, it was just
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: no play at all, no teaser play, all right, Orlando
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: is at Denver, Orlando here, This one almost made my
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: card Orlando. I just worry a little bit about Orlando
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: because they were involved in the Cup and they lost
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: to the Knicks. So it's kind of a difficult loss
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: to come off of. They were pretty close in that
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: game down the stretch. They are coming off of a
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: big game there, but they're coming off a loss. They've
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: had a bunch of time off, so they're rested. They
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: haven't played since Saturday. They're starting a road trip, So
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: there are a lot of aspects of this that say
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: that Orlando should be focused here. Denver is who they're
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: playing here. Denver is actually not that good at home.
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: They're only seven and four at home. They just seem
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: to be overvalued at home right now, even though they're
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: high elevation. Usually they're very dangerous team at home, especially
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: because they use the elevation and their advantage with Denver.
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: They played more recently on Monday, and they beat Houston
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: huge game, and they have Houston again next, so they're
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: in a Houston sandwich, which, if you go by what
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: I ate in Houston, that is a that's like a
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: barbecue brisket sam, which the Texas barbecue sam, which is
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: what Denver's in here right now. Huge win over Houston,
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: man could be a letdown spot for them, playing an
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: Eastern Conference team that's been kind of mediocre, and they
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: got Houston coming up right again next. So for me,
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: Orlando is the side here. The money seems like it's
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: kind of disagreeing. Nuggets down from eight to seven, but
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: sixty five percent tickets, seventy seven percent of the cash
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: on the Nuggets I don't really see it. I think
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: the Nuggets are gonna wind up being the public side.
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: I think so. Yeah, my opinion is you got to
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: either take the points with Orlando or not play the game.
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, there didn't really look at the injury
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: report after I decided not to play it. But uh,
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: Sugs is out and it looks like the the better
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: Wagner is out for Orlando. So they are dealing with
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: some injuries here. That's not good man. Sugs did actually
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: play in the in the Knicks game, so I guess
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: you could argue maybe it's, you know, an injured player
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: spot or something. But we gotta see what's the deal
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: with Wagner. Wagner. Let me see, Yeah, he played in
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: that game against Oh No, he hasn't played since December seventh.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: I didn't even realize that that he was down because
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: he's the he's the better of the Wagners, so because
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: they have both Wagners, so sometimes they get confused. Yeah,
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, so, I guess you could argue that now
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: with Sugs out, it's an injured player spot for Orlando here.
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: But you're looking at a pretty thin roster for Orlando
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: right now, It's like the three best players are Bunchero,
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: Sugs and Wagner, and they really haven't ad any point
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: this season with all three of them being like super healthy,
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like but Chero's back and
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: Wagner goes down almost immediately. It's ridiculous that Orlando team.
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: They just can't stay healthy. That was happening to them
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: last year due that's crazy. The brisket sandwich, it's a
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: good sandwich, man. Although when I last time, I was
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: in Houston, though, when I got barbecue at good in Company,
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: which is pretty good, they got a big bowl on
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: the outside. I did not have a sandwich. So I
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: got like a barbecue platter with like some brisket and
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: some other stuff and then Holopano cheddar bread or something
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: like that. So you could have actually probably made a
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: sandwich with that bread and it probably would have been interesting.
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: Halopaenno cheddar bread with like a kind of sweet smoky
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: brisket barbecue on it. It would probably actually work. So,
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, I could have made a sandwich out of it,
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: but I didn't. I just ate kind of all the
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: components on their own or whatever. All Right, we got
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: a golden State at Phoenix. Golden State now with a
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: Curry back, I believe, though I think Butler has been
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: hurt as well. Butler looks like he is playing. Though
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: Al Horford is out. He's like kind of the the
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: main injury for Golden State right now, but he's an
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: old man, so not really a huge injury issue for them.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: Golden State hasn't played since Sunday, and they went in
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: on two straight losses, including losing at Portland, which is
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: pretty ugly. They have not once since Curry came back.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: I don't believe, but I think now you know the
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: Curry is back, I think they're gonna start playing better.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, he is still like their best player obviously,
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: so I think you're gonna see some focus out of
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: them here with that time off to disrupt that losing momentum.
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: They're playing Phoenix here. Phoenix went in on a difficult
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: game against La the Lakers. They played the Lakers pretty
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: close at home, playing them within two points. They also
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: haven't played since Sunday, and yet they're coming off two
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: straight losses as well, so maybe they will use that
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: time off to disrupt their momentum. And that's kind of
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: a tough loss to come off of. Man, Yes, Phoenix
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: will still be focused against Golden State. I would imagine
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: Phoenix is pretty good at home at eight and five,
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: Golden State's bad on the road at six and ten.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: I would still slightly lean to the Warriors, though, because
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: I just think the way they were, the way they
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: went into the the break was worse, so I expect
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: them to have more of a bounce back here. Warriors
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of tickets, eighty percent of the cash
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: on them, the REMNUS one and a half point favored here.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: Money looks like it is agreeing with the Warriors for now.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: That would be my opinion in that game Lakers at Utah. Now,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: the last time the Lakers were at Utah, they played
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: I believe, two games against Utah and we got the
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: game right in the zigzag. The Lakers barely got by Utah.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: Actually they played first in La. Then LA almost lost
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: at Utah. So Utah played well that time. But I
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: don't think LA is really gonna get caught this time in.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, LA is coming off that game I just
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: mentioned against Phoenix where they almost lost. The game they
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: haven't played since Sunday. I don't really think it's gonna
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: be a momentum disruptor or anything like that, because they
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: will only win there at the end was barely a
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: win against Phoenix. They got revenge though, because Phoenix had
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: beaten them on December first. But I actually think the
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: Lakers will show up here because they only play l
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: They only play the other LA team next. I keep
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: saying LA, but they only play the Clippers next. So
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: I don't really see the Lakers coming into this game
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: unfocused here the Jazz, I mean, you know, they'll still
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: be focused as well. They're staying at home, but having
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: a few days off since Monday might actually disrupt their
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: momentum because they've won two games in a row, both
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: is underdogs. They won at Memphis and then they won
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: I believe, as a home dog against Dallas. So Utah
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: is coming off two straight games as an an upset winner.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: So I think the Lakers are actually the way to
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: lean in this game. The money seems to agree. The
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: Lakers are up from seven to eight, seventy five percent
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: of tickets ninety five percent of the cash on them money, Yes,
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: seems like it's agreeing with the Lakers. That's my lean there,
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: and then Sacramento at Portland in the late game. Sacramento, Man,
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, this team, they're just they're dealing with injuries still.
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: Sabonis is still out now. Zach Levine is out. I
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: don't know how long he's been out, but he got
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: hurt on the fourteenth, So I think this might be
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: an injured player spot. I guess for the Kings because
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be the first game where
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: they're without Levine. Yeah, he got injured in that game
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: against Minnesota, but this is a thin roster right now. Man.
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: When Sacramento is now without their two best players, Levine
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: and Sabonis, that is bad, dude. The spot isn't that bad.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: As they're coming into this having not played since Sunday,
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: it might having that extra rest might disrupt their losing
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: momentum though, And again, their best player that they currently
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: had just went down, so they might step up their
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: level of play for this one game here going into
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: this game against Portland. Maybe, I mean, at least that
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: time off maybe will help them rest a bit. Get that,
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: and you know, losing streak out of the way there.
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: Portland beat Golden State coming into this break, so they've
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: had four days off after a pretty big win against
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: Golden State, so you can maybe argue that they're kind
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: of in a letdown spot. Maybe they won't use that
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: rest really to their advantage. So I actually do lean
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: to the Kings in this game. Blazers are up from
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: seven and a half to nine, sixty two percent of
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: the tickets and eighty one percent of the cash on
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: the Kings. Money is coming in on the King's side.
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: I agree with that one. Don't have much else to
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 1: say about that, but that is my opinion on that game.
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: All right, college football, we have the Xbox Bowl, which
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: I think is a new bowl, and I think it
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: wasn't decided which teams are going to be in this
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: Bowl for a while. I don't know what happened, but
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: this bowl is not even in ESPN's Bowl Mania game,
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: and I have no idea why, Like usually when a
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: bowl comes up a little bit later, they'll just throw
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: it in there anyway into the game. Don't know why
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: they haven't. Maybe they just don't want to make people
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: mad with oh my god, I'm having to adjust my
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: confidence value. But ESPN doesn't care about like when people
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: think about their stupid games, so they've done something like
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: that before, So I'm kind of shocked that this game
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: is not in their game because I want for completion
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: his sake, I want to pick every game in there.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: But whatever, this game is Missouri State in Arkansas State.
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: Our friend Justin is going to be at the game.
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: Missouri State might be flying him out to do camera
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: work for the game. Here it looks like he's got
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: a good seat that he showed me right near near midfield.
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: So good for you, Justin. This game is in Frisco, Texas.
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: We have multiple bowls in Frisco this year. This is
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: tonight at nine pm at ESPN two. Missouri State. You
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: gotta think they're going to be motivated here because, just
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: like Delaware last night, Missouri State is in their first
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: year in FBS and they're in a bowl. So, as
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: I said yesterday with Delaware, those teams tend to be
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: pumped up for it because it's a big deal for
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: a program that hasn't even been in FBS football and
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: now they're already in a bowl, so they already have
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: a chance to get their first bowl win for their program.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: That's a big deal. Delaware, they looked like they wanted
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: to be there, last night, they got the win. They
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: played well. You know, I expect a similar performance out
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: of Missouri State here and again, like I said with Delaware,
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: when a team is in transition period because they're in
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: their first year in Division One, they're not allowed to
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: be in their conference championship game. They're like not allowed
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: in the postseason. But bowls are like completely, like all
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: bets are off, like they're allowed to be in bowls
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: and really all they have to do is petition the
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: NCAA and if there are enough bowl spots they could
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: get in any win. Of course, we know that Notre
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: Dame was gonna be in the Pop Tart Bowl. They
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: dropped out, so then Georgia Tech moved up into that game.
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: It was gonna be BYU and and Notre Dame, and
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: now it's BYU Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech was gonna be
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: in some slightly lesser bowl than that, so they moved up.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: But then we also had Kansas State. Nobody's talking about this.
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: Everybody is blasting Notre Dame for not playing in a bowl,
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 1: but Kansas State and Iowa State are both doing it
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: as well. Kansas State and Iowa State both pulled out
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: of the balls. Iowa State lost their coach as well,
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: so I mean it's not just those teams, But I
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: still think that these teams should be allowed into the postseason.
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: Like why not? Like who cares if it's your first
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: year in Division one, right, Like if you play well enough, hey,
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: let them get a chance at the conference championship. Let
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: them play in a bowl. Well, they do get to
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: play in a bowl, and like I said with Delaware
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: last night, they have to go to the NCAA and
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: petition them and actually ask can we play in a bowl?
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: So that tells you that they want to be there.
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: So I think Missouri State does want to be there. Now,
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: Missouri State lost two games at the end of the season,
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: which usually I don't love, but they do have a
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: lot of time off to break that losing momentum, and
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: I think what kind of happened there was Missouri State
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: had a big game against Kennesas State. Even though Missouri
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: State was not gonna be eligible for the conference championship game,
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: they had a chance to spoil Kannessas State season and
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: they didn't do it. Close game, close loss, they lost
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: by seven. I just think Missouri State had a hangover
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: after that because they were already Bowl eligible at that point,
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: so they just didn't show up in the final game.
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: So I don't think it was just like, oh, they
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: just didn't play well down the stretch whatever. I mean
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: A lot of times, yes, I do talk about how
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: when a team plays well, like with Louisiana last night.
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: One of the reasons why I didn't really want to
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: actually make Delaware a play was that Louisiana played hard
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: just to get to that six win to get into
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: a bowl. So when you see a team do that
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: and they go and they win four games, you know,
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: in a row just to get bowl eligible, that is
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: kind of an indicator that that team does want to
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: be in a bowl. And that was the case with Louisiana.
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: So sometimes I do like to see teams that did
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: do that. Now for this game, again, yes we've established
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a big deal for Missouri State. Now
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: for Arkansas State, I actually think they will show up again.
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: Even though Arkansas State did win a bowl last year.
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: They won against Bowling Green a lot of bowling in
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: that in the Adventures Bowl, which we saw the bowl
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: last night. Arkansas State won that bowl last year. They've
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 1: been in Bowls multiple years in a row, So yes,
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: the bowl doesn't mean as much to the Arkansas Arkansas
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: State program, but they did win their last game of
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: the season on the road at app State to get
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: to the six win, So that kind of tells you
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: that Arkansas State does kind of want to be here too,
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: like they played well to get that six win. They're
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: sitting at six and six, And I told you that
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: six and six teams are also a good way to
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: look usually in bowls because it's just that mental motivator
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: where I know, last night we had both teams are
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: six and six, so it applied to both teams. But
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: when a team is sitting at six and six, it's
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: like that mental motivator, like we don't want to have
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: a losing season, you know what I mean. So when
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: you have a six and six team against a team
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: that has a better record, which is what we have
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: in this game, you actually usually want to look to
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: the six and six team because that mental motivator motivates
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: them like, oh, we don't want to have a losing season.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna stay away from this game completely. Although
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: I don't think Arkansas State is really that good now,
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: the line movement in this game has been crazy. So
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: we saw Arkansas State was a two and a half
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: point favorite. Initially the line moved to this morning, Missouri
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: State was like a two point favorite, so the line
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: completely flipped. But now it's flipped all the way back
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: to Arkansas State. So I think we have differing opinions
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 1: from the professional money in this one. The line has
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: gone all over the place here, man, or maybe it
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: was a setup towards Missouri State and now all this
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: comeback on Arkansas State. I don't know, man, because my
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 1: initial opinion was I like Missouri State here because it's
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: a bigger deal when you're in your first Bowl in
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 1: program history. So I kind of want to still lean
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: that way to Missouri State. But I do kind of
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: worry about it, man, because it looks like the money's
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: coming back on the Arkansas State side. They're now one
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 1: point favorite again. Fifty four percent of the cash on
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State, fifty seven percent of the tickets are on
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 1: Missouri State. So really really hard to read this game
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: right now where it stands right now, man, So I'm
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: not gonna get involved in this game at all. The
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: money looks like it initially dropped the total then for
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: fifty six and a half to fifty four, but sixty
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 1: two percent of the tickets on the over and ninety
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over, so some of
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: the money, it's like it is coming back towards the over.
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: I don't really have an opinion on the total really
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: in this game, although both offenses are decent in this game,
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 1: which is why the total is fairly high, so it
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 1: wouldn't shock me if the game was somewhat high scoring. Now,
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: the other thing you do have to look at is
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: the bowl opt outs, which I forgot to bring up
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: here in my apologies. Hang on a second, although in
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: this game, I don't think there are very many opt
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: outs in this one, but let me bring it up
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 1: real quick. Hold on, I'm gonna bring it into my
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 1: other window here if I can. Here we go. Here's
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: the bull opt outs. If you guys can see this,
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: let's look. Let me see I want to go to
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: what bowl? Is this the Xbox Bowl? Yeah? What link
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 1: me to it? You bastard? Why is this not working?
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: All right? Anyway? Here it is the Xbox Bowl. Here
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 1: are the opt outs. There are actually a few. I
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: don't know if any are really of note, we do have.
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: Missouri State actually has a few. Now, actually this is
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: kind of a concern for Missouri State that actually I
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: forgot about this, which I should have remembered, that Ryan Beard,
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: the head coach for Missouri State, is gone for this game.
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: He's moving. He's going to Coastal Carolina. So Missouri State's
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: gonna be using an interim coach here, So that might
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of a concern. I looks like
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: they have a few opt outs, which might be guys
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: that are going with him over to Coastal. Uh So
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: they're losing one of their wide receivers and a couple
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: of defensive players. Whereas for Arkansas State, their offensive coordinator
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: Cash Hudson hit the transfer portal. Other than that, it
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: looks like they just have some injuries going on there.
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: So a few things going on here, not huge, But
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: the biggest thing is the head coach moving. So then
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: you have to kind of gauge, well, now Missouri State's
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 1: gonna have an interim coach. So now the question is
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: are they gonna play hard for the interim I say
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: that they will. I mean a lot of times you
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: see the team will step up and play well for
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 1: the interim coach. I mean, the interim coach is always
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 1: somebody that's been in the system all year and they
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: get elevated to the head coach role just for this
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 1: bowl game. And when it's the first bowl in program history,
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: you know they're gonna be motivated for it. So I
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: still kind of like Missouri State in this one, all
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 1: of those things considered, you know, but just you gotta
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: look at these op That was just to see what's
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: going on, because there are just a lot of crazy
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: things happening in the age of the transfers in the
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: NIL and whatever. By the way, really really hilarious. A
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: running back name on if you watch the game last
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: night for Louisiana, they're what was his name? Again? Their
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 1: their running backs name is Lunch Lunch something. I'm like,
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: this guy's name is Lunch. What the fuck? I think
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 1: it's a nickname, but still absolutely ridiculous. I mean I
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: can look it up real quick here, Lunch Winfield. Yeah
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: that was his name. Crazy ridiculous name, dude, Lunch all right, whatever, Yeah,
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: Justin's gonna be the Frisco kid. Yeah I did see that. Yeah, dude,
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: they wanted to be there, baby, old Old Dominion was
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: so motivated to win that game that their backup he
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: was already their backup quarterback because unfortunately their starting quarterback
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: chose to opt out of the game and wasn't there. Joseph,
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: he's transferring to I forget. I don't know if he's
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: if he's decided where he's transferring yet, but he was gone.
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: So then Old Dominion's quarterback. I'm Gaston Moore, I guess
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: is his name. Yeah, he got concussed and he's still
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: played because he was like, well, fuck it, it's the
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: last game of the season. Dude, that is badass. You
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: gotta give it to him. Gaston Moore. He had a
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: pretty good game last night. Yeah, hell yeah, I appreciate
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: that amount of masculinity. Man, he's got balls, and dude,
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 1: his name is Gaston who Gaston is actually the good guy,
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 1: you know, beauty and the beast man, Like, give me
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: a break. He's dude. Everybody wants you to believe like
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: that he's the villain because oh he's this hyper masculine.
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: You know, you got to be against hyper masculinity. No,
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: fuck that, Like in real life, do you think the
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: do you think bell? Do you think the pretty lady
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: would wind up with the fucking hideous monster, the Beast.
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: Fuck now, the woman is gonna be with the masculine
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: protector archetype. There, Guston, the sexy man. Guston is actually
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: the protagonist of Beauty and the Beast. I'll just throw
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 1: that out there, so Gaston Moore, there you go, baby,
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: Thank you. Jeffrey. Yes, I do have a play in
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: the NFL game though, so hopefully you catch that. I'm
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about it basically right now. Oh shit, you're right, Gastona,
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: South Florida's dude, I don't even know. I don't know
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: who the backup quarterbacks are. I just knew the starring quarterbacks,
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 1: right well, he played well, all right? I like his
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: name anyway, my apologies. Who was Old Dominion's quarterback? Then
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: let's take a look. My apologies to whoever it was. Oh,
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: Nico Grammatica, apparently a kicker for South Florida. By the way,
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: he must be related to Martine Grammatica. Is that his
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: son or something? Where? Dude, all all of Old Dominion's
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: touchdowns were rushing touchdowns. Just I told you they were
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: gonna run the football. Hennickle weird name Hennickle is that
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 1: he pronounces that. That's the name that doesn't sound that good.
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 1: Quinn Quinn Hannakele. All right, you got to give it
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 1: to him, man, he's got quinn testicles, all right, yeah
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: that guy. I like Gaston Moore's more masculine name better.
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Quinnakle, he was. He's actually a dual threat.
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 1: Quarderback too, because apparently he ran the football. I think
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: he had at least one of the rushing touchdowns too,
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 1: So hand it to him as well. Dude, he's the
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 1: new Jackson darsh Right, He's out there running the fuck
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: out of the football, taking all these hits, getting concussed,
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: not giving a shit. There you go, Quinn Hennekele, my apologies,
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: all right, NFL. We do have a play in the
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: NFL game, all right? Uh so, yes, I do worry,
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 1: yeah again about this late movement in Arkansas State though,
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 1: like I have to figure out who I'm gonna pick
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 1: in the Bowl madness and whatever. Of course, in the
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: confidence game, you know I'm not gonna have this game
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 1: at a high confidence value. I'll tell you that right now.
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: Delaware unfortunately was not a high confidence for me either.
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 1: But yes, so we will. And that game is straight
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: up and not against the spread, so I do a
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: lot better against the spread. But we will see what
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: I want to. It's gonna be a tough game for
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 1: me to pick. I'm gonna watch the market all day
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: and see what the market does, because that market is
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: all over the place. NFL, we do have a play.
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 1: I like this play. We're actually gonna fade the public
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: in this one too. So here's the NFL play. We
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 1: have an NFL play right away, mister Thursday Night. Back
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 1: at you, baby. We are overall on my spread leans.
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: This is now week sixteen. We are what are we know?
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: We're third? No, Twelve two and one is what we are.
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: I think on the NFL Thursday Night games now on
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 1: the spread, twelve two and one on the actual plays
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 1: I've gone out, I think we're four and one. Now
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: let's make it five in one and we're gonna be
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: on the Seattle Seahawks tonight. Huge game, Rams Seahawks. This
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: is the first Thursday night game in Thursday Night history
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 1: that involves two teams facing off that both have eleven
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 1: wins or more. So there is that this is a
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: huge game with you know divisional implications. Both teams are
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 1: probably gonna make the playoffs, but it is big as
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 1: far as the division is concerned. Now, as far as that's,
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks need the game more, which I know I
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: don't love playing on a team that needs it, But
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: both teams are gonna want this game to show up
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: for it. But of course we know the Rams already
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: won the first matchup at home, which I'm gonna talk
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: about that as part of the handicap in a minute,
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: But that means that Seattle really can't afford to lose
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 1: this game, man, if they want to win the division. Yeah,
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: they'll still make the playoffs, but if they want to
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: win the division, they got to get this game, man,
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: to even themselves up with the Rams again. If the
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 1: Seahawks win, they'll be in first place again in the
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 1: division because the teams are tied record wise, of the
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 1: Rams have the tiebreaker because the Rams beat the Seahawks.
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: So now if the Seahawks get that game back, then
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 1: they're gonna take the lead again and they'll have a
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: one game lead as well, and the tiebreaker will be even.
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 1: And then I don't know who has the tiebreaker. I
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: don't know what it falls to next. I think it's
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: like conference records, so I don't know who owns that,
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: but the game definitely means more to the Seahawks here,
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: and then they're gonna have to get this game. Now.
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: The Rams are public sixty percent of the tickets and
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 1: only fifty percent of the cash. Seahawks have moved up
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit from a pick them to a one
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: and a half. I think that's fine. If you can
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 1: find a good money line price on this, you could
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 1: play the money line on Seattle as well. Obviously there's
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 1: not much of a difference laying the one and a half,
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: though there is a slight possibility they win by one,
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 1: which hopefully doesn't happen here. Now the Rams are gonna
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: be the public side here. Everybody's recency biased. I mean,
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 1: people know the Rams already beat Seattle, but then look
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 1: at what the Rams did the last two weeks. They
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: annihilated Arizona, which you know people aren't gonna put that
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 1: much weight into that, but still they looked really good.
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: And then what did they do last week? They beat Detroit,
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 1: big win. Everybody knows the lines are good, and they
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: won in a high scoring shootout of a game. Forty
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 1: one to thirty four. So now you have the Rams
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: coming off a good looking win, a big win. It
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: was one of the high profile games of last week.
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 1: And the Rams have scored forty plus points in two
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 1: straight games. The public's gonna be all over that. They
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 1: love the offense like that man. And yeah, obviously the
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 1: Rams have the better offense here, but I think the
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 1: Seahawks have the better defense, so there is that. I
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: obviously I do think the Rams are the better team.
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: The oddsmakers are telling you that the better team because
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks are not getting full home advantage here, but
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's that significant. And again, the Rams
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: look too good over the last couple of weeks. Now
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 1: they're gonna go back out on the road. They're playing
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: a third road game in four weeks. So this travel
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: is kind of ridiculous for the Rams. Where they were
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 1: out on the East Coast against Carolina, a loss of
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 1: that game, came back into Arizona, then they came back
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 1: home into LA, and now they're going up the coast
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: to Seattle. So a lot of travel here for Atlanta.
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 1: Excuse for Atlanta, excuse me, for La excuse me. They
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: play Atlanta next on Monday night is what I was
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 1: looking at there. LA has a lot of travel here,
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 1: and by the way, the travel is even worse because
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw the news, but LA's
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 1: plane was delayed due to mechanical issues. I don't know
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: what's going on. They flew up to Seattle last night,
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 1: so they really don't have a whole lot of time
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 1: to adapt to Seattle here now, so that's bad as well.
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 1: Their flight was delayed, so that kind of hurts their
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 1: prep time a little bit. Although I know they've been
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 1: practicing all week in LA before they traveled up here,
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 1: but I still don't love that the flight was delayed,
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: so they're like a few hours delayed here getting in.
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 1: They got in I think at like nine pm last night,
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 1: which is not good. The prior week, by the way,
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 1: Sean McVay took a separate flight because he was sick.
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: Or actually it might have been the week going two Arizona,
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: I forget, but there was one week where he took
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: a separate flight from the team because he was sick.
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 1: McVeigh was probably one of those guys wearing a mask
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 1: during COVID pussy Anyway, let's not get this thing nuked here.
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 1: But yeah, so that's all bad too. Then we also
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: have to take into account the fact that this is
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: an outdoor December game. What are the Rams man the
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 1: Rams playing a dome. Matthew Stafford has been a dome
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 1: quarterback for basically his whole career. And yes, I know
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 1: Sam Darnold played in a dome last year or whatever,
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 1: but he's at least more used to playing in this
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 1: environment because he's on Seattle now. But we're looking at
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 1: an outdoor game here, and it is gonna be cold
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: and rainy, or at least cool and rainy, although actually,
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 1: according to the weather it looks like it might not rain.
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 1: Now I was hearing that it was gonna be rain
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 1: it's at least cloudy. It looks like it's gonna be
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: fifty one, So I guess it's not horrible conditions here.
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 1: But I heard there is definitely the potential for rain.
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 1: I think that that's more beneficial to Seattle the Rams
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: less of an outdoor team, So that is a factor,
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: at the very least, I think. Now we also have
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 1: to take into account of what happened to Seattle last week.
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 1: Nobody's gonna want Seattle after what they did last week.
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 1: And I told you I thought the Colts would cover
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: the game, and they almost won the game outright, So
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 1: nobody's gonna want Seattle after what they did last week.
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 1: They almost lost at Homes of Indianapolis against Philip Rivers.
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's crazy, dude. That was a horrible game
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 1: for Seattle. They got no touchdowns in the game. Sam
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: Darnold has been bad for like five weeks in a
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 1: row or six even, And I know sim Darnold. I
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 1: know he was bad against the Rams as well, which
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about in a minute. The Rams do have
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 1: his number, so you do have to worry about that
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit. I think Donald is not that good.
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 1: But I think we're gonna rely on the situation. We're
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 1: gonna rely on, you know, the process here. We're gonna
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 1: rely on, you know, just the handicapping process. We're gonna
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 1: rely on Seattle's defense to get us this as well,
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 1: and the motivation. But again, Seattle, they looked horrible last week,
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 1: winning eighteen to sixteen. You know why the public is
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 1: all over the Rams. The Rams scored it over forty
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 1: points in a shootout win over the pretty good Detroit Lions,
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 1: whereas the Seahawks almost lost at home to an injury
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: played Colts team. I mean, that is pretty bad, but
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 1: again I like the Colts a lot. In that game,
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: they made my pick five entry, my money entry, and
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 1: it was so bad that Indy had had the game
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 1: almost won. Indy had kicked a sixty yard field goal
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 1: to retake the lead late in the game in the
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 1: final minute, and then Seattle had to kick a fifty
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 1: six yard field goal to win the games. There was
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 1: a real possibility Seattle was gonna lose that game. That's crazy.
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 1: They were able to get into field goal range in
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: thirty seconds too, and kick a ridiculously long field goal.
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 1: All of that is insane. So again, nobody's gonna want
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 1: Seattle off how bad that performance was, but I do.
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 1: And then again, nobody's gonna want Seattle because they already
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: lost to the Rams at LA but they lost twenty
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 1: one to nineteen. But look at what happened in this game, man.
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 1: Seattle dominated this game statistically. They outgained the Rams in
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 1: this game four fourteen to two forty nine. And the
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 1: key thing here is that Seattle's defense really held the
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 1: Rams in check and that's what we're gonna go on here, man,
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 1: because you know, I don't think Sam Donald is that good.
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: He was really bad in this game, a turnover wise,
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 1: but Seattle moved the football in this game. Again, so
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: this was a very misleading result. So I like that
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 1: when you see that first matchup and you dig into
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 1: the box score and it wasn't what the final score
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: told you. It was twenty six to twelve first down
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 1: advantage for Seattle in that game, possession thirty seven minutes
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 1: to twenty two minutes basically, so Seattle dominated all of
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 1: the main statistical categories in this game. So again the
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 1: score wasn't what it looked like. And that was all
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 1: because Sam Donald threw four interceptions in the game. He
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 1: was an absolute pumpkin in the game. And I know
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 1: Sean McVay with his deepfense, he's able to stifle Sam Donald.
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 1: He did it last year in the playoffs, which by
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: the way, was a win for us on the show
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 1: last year. We had the Rams against the Vikings in
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 1: the playoffs last year. That was my short is still
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 1: up on the channel. That was my Cairo practic bet
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 1: where I was laying on the floor with a back
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 1: injury when I gave that. I did that video that's
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 1: still up on the YouTube channel right now. But anyway, yeah,
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 1: I do worry about the fact that, yeah, the Rams
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 1: depfense Sean McVay, he knows how to stop Sam Donald here.
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 1: But I mean, outside of the interceptions, Darnold really outplayed
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 1: Stafford in the game. The Seahawks can kind of rely
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 1: on the rushing attack as well, so I think I'll
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 1: have a better game this time. I think he'll at
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 1: least make fewer mistakes this time. So yes, we're going
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 1: to go with Yeah, that's what we're going with. We're
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 1: going with Seattle here. And it is really weird that
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 1: the total plummeted from forty seven and a half to
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 1: forty two and a half. I don't know why, Like,
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: there's no major injury here, except the Rams are gonna
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 1: be without DeVante Adams, so I believe he's not playing
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 1: in this game. He's one of their best receivers. But that,
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 1: I mean that is not going to drop the total
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 1: five points. So I don't really know what the deal
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 1: is with this total dropping like this unless this is
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 1: like a look ahead or something. But may it might
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: be because of the weather because they're expecting rain. But
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 1: I think the totals and overreaction eighty percent of the
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 1: tickets and sixty eight percent of the couch on the
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 1: over would I would actually lean towards the over, though
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 1: at this low number of forty two and a half
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 1: lower number. Again, we saw these teams play a twenty
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 1: one to nineteen game the first time, and even though
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 1: I think the defenses are pretty good, if it is
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 1: raining and it's a slick surface, I think that makes
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 1: the defenses worse because they can't react right away. And
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 1: that game was misleadingly low scoring right because you saw
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks at the very least move the football in
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 1: that game. They just didn't convert it to points because
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: they turned it over so much. So there might be
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 1: some value looking towards an over in this game as well. However,
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 1: the pushback on that would be that on the Thursday
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: night games, so you have to gauge the quick turnaround
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 1: time on Thursday night and I always tag about this.
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 1: On Thursday night, teams have to they have a short
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 1: prep time, right, so they have to prepare for the
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 1: game in a shorter period of time. Now it's easier
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 1: to do that when you're a divisional opponent's like they
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 1: are here, so the teams know each other, so they
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 1: know how to defend against each other, so it's easier
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 1: to prepare for a divisional opponent. Usually the home team
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 1: has a big advantage on Thursday Night, and I know
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 1: we're going with the home team here as Seattle doesn't
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 1: have to travel, they're staying at home, So there is
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 1: still some advantage for Seattle there, but they don't have
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 1: like the biggest advantage because the Rams obviously play at
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 1: Seattle every year, so it makes it a little bit
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 1: easier for the Rams. But I still don't think it's
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 1: enough to not go with the Seahawks here. But as
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 1: far as the total is concerned, yes, because both defenses
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 1: know the offenses that they're facing here, that does mean
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 1: that a lot of times these divisional Thursday night games
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 1: are lower scoring. So that is a pushback on what
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 1: I just said. So I don't want to do anything
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 1: with the total obviously in this one. But yeah, I
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 1: mean that's basically that's all I have to say about it. Man,
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 1: Seahawks are the player starting early with the NFL. There,
• 1:58:39
  Speaker 1: that's the play here. Two Hour Show today. Once again,
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 1: all the players today college basketball run Louisiana plus the points,
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 1: hockey run the Blue Jackets on the money line, the
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 1: Rangers on the money line, NBA really ugly, Pelicans and
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 1: Wizards both plus the points. NFL were on the Seahawks
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 1: either mys the one and a half or whatever, or
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 1: if you can find a minus one that's good as well,
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 1: or a good money line price to any of it. Man,
• 1:59:07
  Speaker 1: that's what we're gonna go with here. I appreciate everybody, Zach,
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 1: what's up again? Man? Oh you you thought it was
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 1: awesome that Hennickle stayed out there yet Tentacle. Yeah, well,
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 1: oh you did the same thing. But yeah, not in
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 1: a college bowl game. Yeah, it's badass. At the very least,
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs fans are all crying. Yeah, I'm not sad
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 1: about it. And that was one of my season win
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 1: totals that I My three favorites that I that I
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 1: gave out on my season win total show before the
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 1: season were Washington on the under that already won, Kansas
• 1:59:47
  Speaker 1: City on the under. I think that is a winner
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 1: now already as well. Washington won really early, and then
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 1: I had San Francisco over and they only need one
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 1: more win, I think to hit that. So I think
• 1:59:58
  Speaker 1: all three of them are gonna win. And uh oh wait,
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, how many wins do they have right now?
• 2:00:03
  Speaker 1: Nine or ten? They need to get to eleven. It
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 1: has to go to eleven for that one to hit.
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 1: But we'll see if that happens. But yeah, my season
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 1: win total is looking good man as far as those
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 1: are concerned. So that's gonna do it. They're at ten
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 1: right now, so San Francisco it was at ten and
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 1: a half. I said, go over the ten and a half.
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 1: So San Francisco only needs one more win to get there,
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 1: which is highly likely. So hopefully, yeah, that one gets
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 1: there as well. Plus, I thought San Francisco would win
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 1: the division, which is not gonna happen. I'm shocked that
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 1: Seattle is where they are right now. I thought it
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 1: was gonna be between the forty nine Ers and the Rams.
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 1: But yeah, and I said those two teams but not
• 2:00:43
  Speaker 1: Seattle would make the playoffs. I said it would be
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 1: forty nine Ers and Rams out of that division in
• 2:00:48
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. Looks like it's gonna be all three of
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 1: those teams, but we will see. That's gonna do it.
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Guys. Learn it tone on Twitter. I
• 2:00:56
  Speaker 1: got subscriptions over there now learn it tone on Instagram,
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 1: like subscribe reply on the YouTube channel here that helps
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 1: me out. Listen on audio Spotify, Apple, give me a
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 1: good review over there that helps me out as well.
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 1: Covered in You because my ukulele cover channel on YouTube.
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 1: You can check that out as well. Patreon dot com
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 1: slash will learn to toad bonus content there. Loser cast
• 2:01:21
  Speaker 1: you can check that out. There's gonna be a Loser
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 1: cast tonight too, but I can't do it if it's
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 1: at the time that Layton wants to do it, because
• 2:01:27
  Speaker 1: it's blame Adam Nutterer, dude, because Adam Nutter ooh, he
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 1: can't stay up late because he's an old man, even
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 1: though I'm older than he is and tyler result than
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 1: he is. I don't know what Adam is doing, but
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 1: he can't do the Thursday night ten pm or Tuesday
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 1: night ten pm. Excuse me. So there's gonna be some
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 1: Thursday night seven pm version of Loser casts and it's
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 1: gonna be without me, So enjoy that one. I guess tonight. Whatever,
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 1: So unless if they do it later, I will be
• 2:01:54
  Speaker 1: on it, but we'll see. But check out the loser
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 1: casts anyway. It's the Round Table User nomination comedy show
• 2:02:01
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and then the Giants podcast with Ben.
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 1: The g spot should be starting at some point, I know,
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 1: I keep mentioning it it will begin, all right, Well,
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 1: let's just put it that way. We're gonna do it.
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for me for now. Have a
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 1: good day, everybody. Let's get some wins again. Dude. Action
• 2:02:20
  Speaker 1: Network like tells you how many games, how many days
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 1: in a row you've won. We're on a ten day
• 2:02:25
  Speaker 1: win streak here on the show again here, so we're
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 1: staying hot. At the end of the season. Man, we
• 2:02:29
  Speaker 1: have had a winning year on the show, and and
• 2:02:33
  Speaker 1: then some it looked like it was gonna be a
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 1: losing year. Of only it would be it would be
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 1: only my second, only my third ever, and one of
• 2:02:40
  Speaker 1: them was last year. This year is not gonna be
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 1: a losing year anymore though, Like there's almost no chance
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 1: of it at this point. We're actually significantly up on
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 1: the year this year. So it's been good man, So
• 2:02:52
  Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out. Tell everybody about it. Let's keep
• 2:02:54
  Speaker 1: winning on the show. And yeah, I'll be back tomorrow
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 1: with the Friday Show. Peace