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Episode Two Hundred Four: Dodgeball · The Death Of Journalism

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to episode number two hundred and four of the
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Death of Journalism podcast. My name is John Zigler. I'm
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: your host on today's show. Election Day is finally here,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: so I will have my prediction for how it.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: All go down.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Garbage Gate takes a surprising turn, so of course the
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: media replaces the issue with even more absurdity. Why one
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: poll in Iowa has everyone freaking out? And did Kamala
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Harris provide a subtle tell that her campaign is confident
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: they are on the path to victory. I hope you
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: had a good weekend with daylight savings time and Halloween.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: We here at the Zigler family had a great Halloween,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: maybe our last as we know it since our oldest daughter,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Grace is twelve years old, although she was very enthusiastic
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: about it. Obviously, today is election Day and I will
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: have my full prediction later on in this episode of
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: the podcast.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: You will want to miss that.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: But first I want to talk a little bit about
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the news that has occurred related to the election over
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: the last several days. When we last spoke in episode
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: number two hundred and three, garbage gate was dominating the
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: news cycle and Joe Biden President allegedly President Joe Biden
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: had basically saved the Trump campaign from what was becoming
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: an absurd but an embarrassing story related to an fairly
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: unknown comedian at a Trump event in Madison Square Garden
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: making a joke about Puerto Rico, the territory of Puerto Rico,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: not the people, not Puerto Ricans, being a garbage place,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: by then calling I believe in many observers believe half
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: the country, or at least Trump supporters garbage himself. And
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm even more positive that Biden intended, at
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: least at first to refer to Trump's supporters as garbage,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: because while I did go into detail about all the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: context and why, I thought that was the most logical conclusion,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: especially in the sense if he was really talking about
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: the comedian, why didn't he say comedian, why didn't he
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: say speaker, he referred to supporters.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: And then, most tellingly.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Which I don't think I did a good enough job articulating,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: in the last episode of the podcast, he refers to
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: him and his and before the statement about supporters, and
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: after the statement about reporters, he's referring to him and
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: his as clearly being Trump not the comedian and not
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: a speaker at the Madison Square Garden rally. So I
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: am convinced that at least in that moment in time,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Biden intended to say that Trump's supporters were garbage. The
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: White House, of course, refused to accept that interpretation. In fact,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: they altered the transcript. Now, this is a situation where
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: classic media bias. If the exact same circumstances had occurred
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: in the opposite direction, and let's say, you know, Trump
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: was the incumbany and he had called all of the
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Harris supporters garbage, and the White House had altered the
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: transcript and there was an objection by the transcriptionist. This
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: would be all we would be talking about in the
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: final days of the campaign.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: This would be it, this would be the issue. It
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: would be scandalous.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: And as I predicted in the last episode of the podcast,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: that's not how this went down. All this really did
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: was end garbage Gate. Although you have to give it
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: to Trump for the stunt that he pulled dressing up
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: like a garbage man and writing a garbage truck with
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: you know, Trump and VADs twenty twenty four on the
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: side of the truck. He got a lot of mileage
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: literally and figuredly figuratively out of that. And so you know,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: the issue became one that, acting as the campaign manager
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: for the Harris side, the news media no longer was
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: interested in. That's exactly what I told you what happened.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: They dropped it like a hot potato. It was no
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: longer something that they were interested in talking about because it's.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: Problematic, and so that was dropped.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: And what was even more amazing in some ways about
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the way that the Harris team handled this and how.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: This could have been.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: This is a classic example of what could have been
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: a brushfire that the news media did not allow to
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: start to become an inferno. They stamped it out immediately
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: by ignoring the train inscription issue and also by ignoring
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Harris's response to this whole situation. Now, this should have
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: been I've been screaming bloody murder about this ever since
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: the Biden coup. But there have been numerous situations where
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Harris should have been forced to pick a lane, and
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: partially because of the news media extreme bias and partially
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: because I believe of Trump campaign and competence, she has
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: not been forced to do that. Well, this was another
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: classic example of that where Harris was asked about Biden's
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: comments and.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: Was teed up, teed up in so many different ways.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: She had so many different options here for how she
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: could have handled this or how she should have handled this.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: And frankly, if she was really somebody who was going
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: to be the president for all people, remember that's one
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: of the themes of her entire care pain, If she
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: was really going to be the president for all people,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: she would have said something to the effect of, well,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: I think it's possible his comments have been misinterpreted, but
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: those who have interpreted them as meaning Trump supporters, I
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: strongly disagreed with the President Biden, saying that this should
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: have been a situation where she was forced to separate
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: herself from Biden and in some way, shape or form,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: which she has never done during this entire campaign, even
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: ridiculously on the view, saying she can't think of one
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: thing she would have done differently if she had been
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: president instead.
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: Of Joe Biden. And so here was what happened.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: When she was tossed a softball, given an incredibly prime
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: opportunity to do the right thing prove that she really
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: wants to be a president for all Americans and finally
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: separate herself from Joe Biden in some sort of substantive way.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: And she whiffed completely. In fact, she didn't even whiff
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: she didn't even try.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: She took a pass, and then the media gave her
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: a pass for yet another non answer. And by the way,
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: there's two different types of non answers.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: I realized she never gives a full answer to anything,
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: and that's the whole word salad thing.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: But then there's where she is clearly intending to dodge
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: the question, where it's not where she can't think of
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: anything or she can't articulate her position. Clearly, this is
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: a strategic decision to totally dodge it.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: They have made a decision as a campaign.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: We are not doing anything to get ourselves involved with this.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: We're not going to put any fuel on this fire.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: We're not going to create any distance between ourselves and
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden. We are just simply not going to answer
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the question. You probably didn't even hear this because it
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: got basically no media coverage that I could see.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: But here's what happened.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: When Harris was asked the question about Biden seemingly calling.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: All Trump's supporters garbage.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: He sympathized with any votes that you do feel appendi
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: by or insulted by the garbage coming.
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: I'm running for president of the United States. I will
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: be traveling to three states today to do what I
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: have been doing throughout, which is talking with the American
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: people about the fact that, first of all, I get
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: it in terms of the concerns they have about challenges like.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: The price of groceries.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Now, there are a couple different elements of that dodge
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: by Harris.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: That I found to be very interesting.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: The first, of course, is that she's not separating herself
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: from Biden at all. She's getting away with not having
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: to take a position which should have been very uncomfortable
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: for her. The media lets her go, and then they
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: don't even publicize the fact that, oh my gosh, here
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: she is again one more time. I'm not answering the
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: damn question. I mean, this should be one of the
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: key narratives about the entire campaign. Why won't Harris answer
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: any questions? But then there's this strategic element of this,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: and this might be as we are on election day now,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: the most interesting part of this whole situation, if my
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: interpretation is correct, see because as I've already stated, I
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: think there are two different types of Harris non answers.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: There's the situations where she's just not capable of answering,
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: and then there's the situations where she has been told
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: by her advisors do not answer this question. And it
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: is in those situations where she is following strategic advice
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: where the campaign has a strategy.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: Now that might not be the right strategy, but.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: It's a strategy, and that strategy I think needs to
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: be properly interpreted. And I'm not not seeing anybody properly
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: interpret it, at.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Least not from the perspective that I'm seeing this.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: So I want to articulate this now and then expand
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: this a little bit because I don't think that what
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: happened there with Harris dodging the Biden question is a
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: one off.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's anomenaly.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: I think it's part of a pattern, especially in the
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: final days of this campaign. And there may not have
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: been a better example of this than when Harris was asked.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: And it's remarkable that this is the first time that
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: she was asked about this, especially when you consider the
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: fact that Donald Trump in a very similar situation was
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: asked about this months ago, and it created a real
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: firestorm in Florida. What I'm referring to is that, obviously
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Harris is a resident of California. Unfortunately, the Trump campaign
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: has not made a big enough issue of her California background,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: which is driving me crazy. And Trump is a resident
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: of Well, if you may recall, Trump got asked about
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: this amendment for related to abortion that Floridians are voting on,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: and he butchered the answer, and it.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: Created several days of news.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: But he was put on the spot as to what
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: his position is, and he changed his position a couple
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: of times, but he gave an answer as to what
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: his position was on amendment for in Florida. Well, there's
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: a far less controversial, in my opinion, proposition on the
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: California ballot on this election day called Proposition thirty six.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Many people are rightfully referring to it as the make
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Crime Illegal.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: Again law or proposition.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: And Harris was asked at a press conference or press
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: availability as to how she's going to vote on Proposition
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: thirty six. Now, let's be clear, it is especially given
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: the Trump president with Amendment four in Florida, it is
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: absolutely one hundred percent imperative that a future president of
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the United States who has never held the position before.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: Give an answer on this.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: This is a very legitimate question, and her answer is
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: potentially very telling because this is a proposition that, by
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: all accounts, is going to pass.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: Now that's important here.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: It's important for context because of the answer that she
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: ends up giving. So you have a situation where even
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: California appears to be ready to pass Proposition thirty six
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: to make crime illegal again. So we're basically going to
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: enforce actual criminal statutes, which in a lot of cases
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: hasn't been happening in California. She's the former attorney general
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: of the state, so it's right in her wheel out,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: so it would be legitimate under any circumstances. But she's
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: the former attorney general of California, so this is a
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: very legitimate question. It would be obviously imperative and paramount.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: And unacceptable, frankly.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: For her not to answer this again one more time,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: especially given the precedent as to how Trump was treated
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: with Amendment Floor in Florida. And instead of providing a
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: simple yes or no or you know, I voted yes
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: or no on it, and the yes is where she
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: should be because.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: That's the one that's the side where you actually vote
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: to make crime illegal.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Again, she's someone who has claimed as a prosecutor that
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: she's tough on crime, so this this should be easy.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: And again for context, what makes this particularly easy in
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: theory for Harris is one, it's going to pass, so
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: she's not jeopardizing something by making her vote known. And two,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: it's easy as a former attorney general prosecutor who wants
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: to pretend at least that she's tough on crime. This
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: is a very sensible proposition and provision. This is again
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: not controversial. So this is a layup.
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: This is a.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Layup for her if she wants to appeal to let's say,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: moderate voters in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania or somewhere like that,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: or in the Sunbelt states, even where you know she
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: can show well, I voted for Proposition thirty six. I
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: think it's common sense law enforcement provisions.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: Well, she doesn't do that.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: And yes, there's a narrative of once again Harris won't
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: answer any goddamn questions. But I think it's more important
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: in this particular situation because as you listen to this
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: exchange to me, This is again going back to those
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: two different types of non answers. This is not a
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: word salad non response.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: This is a.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Strategic non response given to her by the campaign, by
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: her advisors. They clearly anticipated this question, they probably shocked
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: they haven't gotten it previously. And she references, which I
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: don't think she would do off the cuff, the theoretical
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: absurd concept of the danger of her vote being interpreted
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: as an endorsement either way of proposition thirty six. That's
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: just cowardly, an absurd dodge. But that's something that she
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: would not come up with right off the cuff, on
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: the fly. That was given to her as something to
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: say as a way for her to not answer the question.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: And that's I think theoretically very significant here.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: But here's what it sounded like when Harris was asked
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: something that all accounts should have been an easy answer.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: The media should require an answer, and the answer ought
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: to be if she wants to be consistent with the
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: rest of her campaign, yes, I voted yes on Proposition
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: thirty six, but instead it went down this way.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: How did you vote on thirty six?
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: So I have my ballot is on its way to California,
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: and I'm going to trust the system that it will
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: arrive there. And I am not going to talk about
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: the vote on that because I honestly it's the Sunday
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: before the election, and I don't intend to create an
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: endorsement one way or another around it.
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: But I did vote.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: Now, there are two reasons why I am up in
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: arms about this, why I think this is so important. One,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: I think it's a very telling moment that Harris cannot
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: be president or should not be president, because she's not
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: answering even basic questions. This is as fundamental as it gets.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: This is as easy as it gets.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: It's on the.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Ballot, she's the former attorney general of the state.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: It's an issue that is at.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: The forefront of a lot of people's minds. It's a
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: non controversial topic. It looks like it's going to pass.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: And she took a knee. She took a knee. And
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: I'm using the taking of the knee analogy or metaphor
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: on purpose because to me, I'm maybe I'm overthinking this.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I've tweeted about this, and people think I might be
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: overthinking this.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: I don't think I am. I think I'm reading the.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Tee Le's properly here, because taking the knee that I'm
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: referring to is what happens at the end of a
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: football game when one team has won the game, or
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: at least thinks that they have won the game, that
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: they take a knee because they don't want to take
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: any more risks. They take a knee to run out
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: the clock. And that is how I interpreted what Harris
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: said there. Again, because I look at this from the
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: standpoint of that is not her typical non answer. There's
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: no word salad there that was given to her by
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: the campaign, by her advisors. And if I'm right about that,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: follow the thinking here, folks. If I'm right about that,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: that means that the campaign decided, you know what, we
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: don't want any part of creating any semblance of controversy whatsoever.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: That is only logical if they think they are winning,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: because let's play this out, if they thought they were losing.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: If they thought they were losing, and they're trying to
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: appeal to moderates or disaffective Republicans, Prop thirty six is
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: actually a layup for them.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: It's a layup.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: They're not going to affect and anybody by saying yes,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: I voted yes on Proposition thirty six.
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: That strategic decision.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Again, I'm assuming it's a strategic decision for reasons I
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: have already stated that strategic decision only makes sense if
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: they think they are winning, because if they thought they
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: were losing, the answer would be clear. The non answer
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: only makes strategic sense if you are taking a knee
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: you think you're winning. You don't want to do anything
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: to cause any controversy at all in the last couple
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: of days, even when it's obvious.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: What the right answer is.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Now there's a couple of assumptions I'm making there that
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: could theoretically be wrong.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: I could be.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Wrong that this was a strategic decision and Harris just
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: wasn't making this up on our own. I feel pretty
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: strongly that as clear as she was for why she
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: wasn't answering the question, even though it was a bogus explanation,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: she was clear she was not answering that question. And
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: you know, that to me felt very very much like
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: a strategic decision. And I don't think it was by her.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: I think it was it was sanctioned by the campaign.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: So that's assumption number one that could be wrong. Assumption
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: number Two. This is really not an assumption, but it's
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: important context. I could be right, and it may not
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: matter because maybe they've miscalculated. Maybe they have miscalculated, but
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: I think it is relevant. That is easy to interpret
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: Harris taking a knee on that as the Harris campaign.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: The only logical scenario where that makes any sense at
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: all is that they think they are winning.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: So there's two elements to the issue.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: One, people ought to be outraged, and we had a
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: reasonable and legitimate news meeting. In this country, this would
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: be a major issue in the news. Why won't Harris
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: answer this question or any other question.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: That is relevant to her real belief systems? Who is she?
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: What does she really think? What does she really believe?
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, my god, If we don't even know what
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: she how she voted on Proposition thirty six as the
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: former attorney general of California, How can we possibly understand
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: who she really is? And I have to say, I
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: honestly do not know who she is.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: I lived in California now for twenty years during most
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: of her career.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know who she really is.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: The person that ran for president in twenty twenty is
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: completely different. Than the campaign that was run in the
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: last couple of months of twenty twenty four. And so
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: there's the issue of why won't she answer any questions?
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: Who is she really?
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: That is a big one, but the news media is
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: not interested in that. But then there's this subtext which
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: I find even more interesting that I think this is
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: clear evidence. This is a tell reading and Tea leaves
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: this tells me that the Harris campaign is rather confident
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: that they're gonna win. That doesn't mean they're right, but
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: that's still relevant. They think they're gonna win. I have
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: more thoughts on that when I get to my prediction
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: of how this is all gonna go down. But as
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: garbage Gate faded away, because the news media was no
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: longer interested in that story, they concocted a new Trump scandal.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: This one at least dealt with something that he himself
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: had said, and it was related to Liz Cheney, former
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Republican congresswoman who is now completely and totally sold out
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: to the Harris campaign. She's a major Harris surrogate. She
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: got her dad had Dick Cheney to endorse Kamala Harris.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, Liz Cheney really bugs the crap out of me.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: I mean here, I am an anti Trump, never Trump conservative,
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: and I have disdain for Liz Cheney partially because and
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: I've posted this many times on Twitter, and the news
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: media has totally ignored this reality because they loved the
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: whole Liz Cheney narrative. But Liz Cheney made some of
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: the most negative and derogatory statements about Kamala Harris when
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: she became vice president while Trump was President of the
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: United States that I've ever heard. I mean, she was
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: vehemently anti Kamala Harris, and rightfully so. Now I'm sure
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: she would say, but John, that was before September or
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: not September eleventh, that was a Freudian slip, but before
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: January sixth, because you know, January sixth is worse in
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: many liberals' minds than September eleventh was. But I died,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: But that was before January sixth, and so therefore January
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: sixth changed everything. Well, what I think really changed everything
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: with Liz Cheney is that once she especially once she
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: was kicked out of power and lost her seat, her.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: Only pat to relevance.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: And attention was to go all in on not just
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: being anti Trump, but being pro Democrat, pro liberal, being
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: part of the Harris campaign, even getting her elderly father
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: to go along with it. Well, unfortunately, Trump has out
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: of his own ego because he can't stand the fact
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: that Liz Cheney has done this.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: He keeps adding fuel to her fire.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: And while he was completely taken out of context, he stupidly,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: in my view, said some things about Liz Cheney that
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: could easily be taken out of context. In this environment
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: few days from a major election, he knows that the
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: media is out to get him. We saw that with
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: garbage Gate, where he didn't even have anything to do
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: with it, and he made this statement where he was
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: talking to Tucker Carlson of all people, and more on
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: Tucker in a bit, But he made this statement which
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: obviously was intended to expose Cheney as a hypocrite, as
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: a so called chicken hawk, because you know, she is
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Trump's mind, willing to send Americans into war, but she's
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: never had to face that herself.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: And the media immediately.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: Ran with this as if somehow Trump wanted to put
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: Liz Cheney in front of a firing squad, and that's
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: not at all what Trump said. But for the record,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: here's what Trump actually did say that was grossly misinterpreted
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: by much of the media in a mini firestorm that
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: occurred for this statement.
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: And Cheney was so, he said, I really want to
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: thank you. He said, Now, I'm so glad that I
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: actually endorsed you. It's amazing, but that you would do this,
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: And I didn't speak to him about it, But then,
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: you know, go a couple of years forward to go now.
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: And I don't blame him for sticking with his daughter,
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: But his daughter is a very dumb individual, very dumb.
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: She's a radical war hawk.
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: barrel shooting at her. Okay, let's see how she feels
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: about it. You know, when the guns are trained on
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: her face. You know they're all warhawks when they're sitting
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: in Washington in a nice building, saying, oh, gee, will,
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: let's let's send ten thousand troops right into.
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: The mouth of the enemy. But she's a stupid person.
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: And I used to have I have meetings with a
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: lot of people, and she always wanted to go to
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: war with people. So whether it's her, whether it's sick.
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: I was surprised a little bit with Dick Cheney.
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: I didn't know him at all.
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: I only had essentially the one or two phone calls,
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: and it was only a call saying thank you very
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: much for doing that for Scooter Libbery.
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: That was nice. And Scooter Libby, by the way, was
• 27:17
  Speaker 5: beyond that.
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: He couldn't believe that it happened. Nobody would do it.
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: They should have done that for him years before.
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: But I was a little surprised because I actually thought.
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: That Dick Cheney would go with me over his daughter,
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: and he didn't. And you know what, I understand it.
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: It's your daughter, and you go. But she's a bad person.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Now, when the news media heard that, they're like, ah,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: we've got our new garbage gait. This Trump guy is
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: so dangerous. He wants to use the military on his enemies.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: He wants to put Liz Cheney in front of a
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: firing squad. Well, well no, and there's many tells that
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: this was not at all what Trump intended. The first
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: probably is well, first of all, he just listened to
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: the entire context. It's obviously not what he's referencing, especially
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: since he uses the term chickenhawk. He also references giving
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: her a gun, which is not something that happens at.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: A firing squad.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know why he used the number nine there.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: That's the only little part of this that I'll give
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: the media a tiny, tiny little bit of a fig
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: leaf where that.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: Did sound a little bit like a firing squad situation.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: But you know, Trump is not exactly known for his
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: exact language. I don't want to defend Trump one hundred
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: percent here because I think this was stupid to even
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: get into, and it was ego driven.
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: You should not be talking about.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: Liz Cheney, and you should certainly shouldn't be talking about
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: situations where she might die under these circumstances. This is
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: obviously a very tense situation just a few days before
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: the election. Everything is magnified ten times, and so if
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: you're smart, you don't go there. But the news media
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: ran with this, and then eventually, you know, even Jake Tapper.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: People like Bill Maher.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Jonah Goldberg, a former conservative, was a CNN commentator, had
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: to basically retract his original statement on CNN that he
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: thought that this was Trump threatening Cheney's life, realizing that
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: that was inaccurate. So eventually people said, well, okay, wait
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: a minute, this is not true, this is not accurate,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: this is not what he really meant.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: It felt a lot like this has happened so many
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: times in this campaign.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: But it felt a lot like the whole blood bath
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: controversy where Trump got completely and totally taken out of
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: context when it came to the auto industry and what
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: happens to the auto industry if he loses, and that
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: there'll be a blood bath, And somehow Trump had said
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: there'll be a blood bath in America if he loses.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: That's not at all what he said. That's not what
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: he meant.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: And the news media exposed themselves as hacks for purposely
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: taking him out of context. And I think the same
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: thing basically happened with Liz Cheney. And Cheney God, she
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: drives me crazy. I really have no respect for her.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: And again, I'm as anti Trump conservative as they get
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: to me. Where Cheney crosses the line is where she
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: becomes an integral part of the Harris campaign. By the way,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: it's absolutely insane that the Harris campaign is getting very
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: little negative pushback for embracing the Cheney's, you know, who
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: were supposed to be evil.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Cheneys used to be evil and.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Then you have Liz Cheney herself having the audacity, the
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: audacity to publicly ask or try to manipulate George W.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Bush into joining her and her dad and endorsing Kamala Harris.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: Which is really rich.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, by the way, it's also rich that a
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: lot of librals want.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: This to happen. Wait a minute, I mean, George W.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: Bush was Hitler before Trump was Hitler, Dick Cheney was
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Darth Vader.
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: The hell did we get here? But the idea that.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: Liz Cheney has the audacity to ask or demand or
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: to try to cajole George W. Bush into endorsing Kamala
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Harris is really something else. I mean, that's audacity right there.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: And thankfully George W. Bush has not taken the bait.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: He has said he is no longer in politics and
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: he is not endorsing anybody, much like a lot of
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: other people, like myself, because George W. Bush knows that
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris is not going to be a good president
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: for America. Now his daughter is working for Kamala Harris,
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: so I don't know that for sure, but I just
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: I've had enough of Liz Cheney, and I had enough
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: of how.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: The news media exposed themselves.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: Trying to come up with yet another scandal once garbage
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: Gate turned in a direction they didn't like. And I
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: don't think it's had any real effect because most people
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: acknowledged right away, or at least somewhat right away, that
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: this was false.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: That is not what Trump actually said or meant.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: The media tried one more time over the weekend when
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: at a rally, Trump made a joke, an obvious joke,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: a fairly funny joke, about he himself being the target
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: of assassination attempts and how it is that in certain
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: circumstances to get to him, you might have to shoot
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: the media first, something to that effect, which he wouldn't mind.
• 32:40
  Speaker 5: Ha ha ha.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: It's a joke.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: He's joking about an assassination attempt on himself where you'd
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: have to get through the media first, that he wouldn't
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: mind maybe some media members getting shot. I think by
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: virtue of the fact that he was shot himself, he
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: gets a little more leeway when it comes to me
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: making jokes about this.
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: And this was obviously a joke.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: It did not get even the kind of kind of
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: traction that the Liz Cheney situation did, although the media
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: of course tried. But the left now they don't even
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: accept the idea that you're allowed to joke anymore. I mean,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: you get shot in the head and you're not even
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: allowed to joke about your own assassination ATTEBS. And it's
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: not like he specifically said that one person he wishes
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: would be dead. He was talking about the news media
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: in general. Now, you know, maybe fifteen years ago, ten
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: years ago, before Trump, that would have been considered to
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: be totally inappropriate for a presidential candidate. And I might
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: have said, okay, fine, you know, you got to be
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: more careful. But the rules have totally changed, except liberals
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: still do not accept the idea that humor is a
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: legitimate form of communication. There's like a war on jokes
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party. If you saw Saturday Night Live.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: The war on jokes continue even in comedy shows because
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: they're not funny anymore. I'll get the SNL in just
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: a little bit because they're embroiled in a controversy for
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: having Kamala Harris on their show. So the media has
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: tried very hard in the last few days of the
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: campaign to figure out a way to come up with
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: Trump related scandals. I don't think that they've been particularly successful.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know how much of any impact they have had,
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: but they certainly aren't consistent with the extreme media bias.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: In this campaign.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: As you know, though, I'm one of the few people
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: that will attack not just the left wing mainstream news media,
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: but also the right wing media as well.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: And I mentioned that the person.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Who was interviewing Donald Trump during that whole Liz Cheney
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: controversy was Tucker Carlson. And I have referenced Tucker Carlson
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: as the MVP of the Trump campaign during the primary season, and.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: I think I was prescient in that. I stand by that.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's the MVP of Trump happens to
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: win this election. I believe that would go to clearly
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: to Elon Musk, although you know, Musk certainly played a
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: hand in helping sabotage the campaign launch of Ron de Santas.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: Something we talked a lot about.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: I don't think he did it on purpose, but it
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: did happen nonetheless. But anyway, Tucker Carlson I think played
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: a very important and forgotten role. I mean, when I
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: post about this on social media, even people who are
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: DeSantis fans totally forget how much of an important role
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: Tucker played in paving the way for Trump to win
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: the Republican nomination. Now, would you have won the Republican
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: nomination without Tucker Carlson's help?
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: Quite possibly.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: But Tucker Carlson as someone who clearly, as he said
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: you know in private messages, has no love for Donald Trump,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: no respect for Donald Trump, until it became very much
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: in his self interest for him to pretend.
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: That he does.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: When he was the number one star at Fox News Channel,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: he had an enormous amount of influence and power, and
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: once those indictments started, had he set the narrative as Okay,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: it's time to move on. This is unfair maybe to Trump,
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: but this is we can't do this.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: This is too important. We can't get this wrong.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: We need to move on. It's time to move on.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: We have lots of better or other options, specifically Ron
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: de Sandis. If Tucker had done that, I think we
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: got a hell of a fight on our hands, and
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: it could have gone another direction. Not saying it would have,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: I'm saying it could have gone another direction when it
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: came to the Republican primary.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: But when I.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Saw that wasn't going to happen. I went on News
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Nation television and eviscerated Tucker Carlson in probably my most
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: pression statement of the entire campaign.
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: Where I said, this is going to clinch it for
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: And that's exactly what happened when it was obvious that
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Bucker was in the bag for Trump and he was
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: going to go in the opposite direction of the way
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: he should go and the way that would be required
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: for Trump to be stopped.
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: Well, I'm mentioning all.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: This now because not just because Tucker was interviewing Donald
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: Trump publicly in Arizona, but because there's a clip that
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: has become widely seen on social media, and the right
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: is embracing it as an indication that Tucker has found religion,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: and the left is, i think rightfully mocking it as
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: an indication that Tucker Carlson may have lost his frickin marbles.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: And it appears to be part of some sort of
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's a documentary or it's an
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: interview slash profile on Tucker Carlson. I have to say,
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: I don't even know who the interview er, if you
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: want to call him that is in this clip that
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: I'm about to play for you, but it's about three
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: minutes long, and this is just so oh, mind blowing,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: And I think this is an example of where we
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: are so desensitized to insanity that again, ten years ago,
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: this is all anybody would be talking about if Tucker
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: Carlson revealed that, Oh, by the way, he believes that
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: he has been attacked in his bed by demons, by
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: demons who left his body scarred and bloodied, and he
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: doesn't fully understand why or how, but it made him
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: find religion and caused him to read the Bible.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: For the first time.
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: Now, to be cleared, knowing Tucker a little bit and
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: having watched him for many, many years, I'm very confident that,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: at least before he got on the Trump train and
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: you know, got fired from Fox News Channel, Tucker Carlson
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: was anti Trump and an agnostic. There's no chance he
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: believed that any sort of organized religion, so that may
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: play a role in how he's I don't frankly, folks,
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what's going on here. There's a
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: number of possible explanations, none of which are consistent with
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: the way that Tucker is telling this story, which is
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: absolutely bonkers, crazy even by the standards of twenty twenty four.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: But this is Tucker Carlson describing something that happened a
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: year and a half ago, when he still would have
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: been at Fox News Channel, but you know, would be
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: leading up to the time where he got fired and
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: everything totally changed. And I have said many times that
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: I thought Tucker Carlson was losing his mind. I even
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: theorized he might be on drugs, but I kind of
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: backed away from that because I don't think there's any
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: evidence that there that he's been on drugs, and that's
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: a serious allegation. I just throw that out there as
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: a possibility to explain why he's off his rocker and
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: why he's acting so unstable. I don't know how to
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: interpret this story, but I do know that it's worth
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: touching on and playing this clip from So there's three
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: minutes of Tucker Carlson talking about an event that allegedly
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: occurred a year and a half ago where he's in
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: bed with his dogs and his.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: Wife and he got clawed by demons. Not making this up.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: Here's what it sound like.
• 40:29
  Speaker 6: Do you think the presence of evil kickstarting people.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: To wonder about the goods.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: What happened to me, that's what happened to you.
• 40:36
  Speaker 6: Oh yeah, I had a direct experience with.
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: It in the milieu of journalism or.
• 40:44
  Speaker 6: Just no in my bed at night and I got
• 40:46
  Speaker 6: attacked while I was asleep with my wife and four
• 40:49
  Speaker 6: dogs in the bed and mauled physically, mauled in a
• 40:55
  Speaker 6: spiritual attack by a demon. Yeah, by a demon or
• 40:59
  Speaker 6: by something unseen that left right claw marks on my
• 41:04
  Speaker 6: sides on my so he left physical mark. Oh they're
• 41:06
  Speaker 6: still there. Yeah, yeah, a year and a half ago.
• 41:09
  Speaker 5: Was your wife terrified?
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: I know you were.
• 41:11
  Speaker 6: I wasn't. I was totally confused. I woke up and
• 41:13
  Speaker 6: I couldn't breathe, and I thought I was going to suffocate,
• 41:16
  Speaker 6: and I walked around outside and then I walked in
• 41:19
  Speaker 6: and my wife and dogs had not woken up, and
• 41:21
  Speaker 6: they're very light sleepers. And then I had these terrible
• 41:24
  Speaker 6: pains on my rib cage and on my shoulder, and
• 41:27
  Speaker 6: I was just in my boxer shorts, and I went
• 41:29
  Speaker 6: and flipped on the light in the bathroom and I
• 41:31
  Speaker 6: had four claw marks on either side underneath my arms
• 41:35
  Speaker 6: and on my left shoulder. They're bleeding wait, they were bleeding.
• 41:40
  Speaker 6: They were bleeding. Yeah, oh, no actual claw marks. And
• 41:43
  Speaker 6: I sleep on my side, so I wasn't clogging myself.
• 41:46
  Speaker 6: I don't have long nails, and they didn't fit my
• 41:49
  Speaker 6: hands anyway. But yeah, that happened. So I'm not from
• 41:53
  Speaker 6: a world where things like that happened. I never heard
• 41:55
  Speaker 6: of anything like that happening before. I had no idea
• 41:57
  Speaker 6: what that was. I knew it was spiritually. Immediately you did, Okay,
• 42:00
  Speaker 6: that was gonna be my question. Yeah, well, I don't
• 42:03
  Speaker 6: understand to this day, I'm not going to put it.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: You didn't.
• 42:05
  Speaker 6: You didn't try to refute the spiritual part in your
• 42:08
  Speaker 6: own mind.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: It went you went right into the ath.
• 42:10
  Speaker 6: It didn't make any sense, and it doesn't now.
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: So, but I'm not.
• 42:14
  Speaker 6: From a what do they call it, faith tradition that
• 42:18
  Speaker 6: talks about things like that or even acknowledges their existence. Like,
• 42:20
  Speaker 6: there's nothing like that. I've never heard anybody say anything
• 42:23
  Speaker 6: like that in my whole life.
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: What was the next day like, Well.
• 42:27
  Speaker 6: The next morning I woke up and I thought that
• 42:29
  Speaker 6: was the weirdest dream I've ever had, And then I
• 42:31
  Speaker 6: saw blood on my sheets, and I realized that was
• 42:33
  Speaker 6: not a dream at all. It was like, oh, my assistant,
• 42:35
  Speaker 6: it was like the only evangelical Christian I know, you
• 42:38
  Speaker 6: know well enough to call with something bizarre like that,
• 42:41
  Speaker 6: totally bizarre like that. And she said, oh, yeah, no, no,
• 42:45
  Speaker 6: that happens. Yeah, people are attacked in their bed by demons.
• 42:48
  Speaker 6: What what are you even talking about?
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 42:53
  Speaker 6: So, I mean, I'm not leaving anything out and and
• 42:58
  Speaker 6: I'm not pretending to understand that. I can only say
• 43:00
  Speaker 6: what happened to me, and that did happen to me.
• 43:03
  Speaker 6: And then I was seized with this very intense desire
• 43:07
  Speaker 6: to read the Bible, which I then started without any
• 43:12
  Speaker 6: study aids or anything. I bought a Bible that didn't
• 43:14
  Speaker 6: have any I'm not interested in editorializing in the Bible.
• 43:16
  Speaker 6: I just want to read it and see what's in there. Myself,
• 43:19
  Speaker 6: I have very low levels of trust for Christian pastors,
• 43:21
  Speaker 6: most of whom you know. I'm just not a fan
• 43:24
  Speaker 6: at all, and sorry to say that, but that's how
• 43:26
  Speaker 6: I feel. And so I just didn't I don't want
• 43:29
  Speaker 6: to hear other people's opinions. I just want to see
• 43:31
  Speaker 6: what's in there. And I so I spend a year
• 43:33
  Speaker 6: and a half reading it. And then I started rereading
• 43:34
  Speaker 6: it and it was just a transformative experience for me.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: Folks, I honestly do not know how to interpret that
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: other than there is something very very wrong going on
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: with Tucker Carlson, which I have said a lot of
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: times in the past, but now I'm more positive than ever.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know whether that this is some sort of
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: a ruse to come up with an explanation for why
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: he is now suddenly religious at this late stage of
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: his life, because he's obviously trying to appeal to a
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: completely different type of customer an audience base, and he's
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: in a far more vulnerable position now not being on
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: Fox News Channel. He's been very successful in the social
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: media realm, no question about that.
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on here. This feels like
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: something that is consistent.
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: With somebody losing their mind, as is so many other
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: things that Tucker Carlson has said in recent times, especially
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: in the last year. I mean, he believes in a
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: lot of batshit crazy conspiracy theories. And this is a
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: guy who I've always thought was very intelligent, very funny,
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: very talented, and it's been very depressing, not just from
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: the standpoint of the Trump campaign, but just seeing somebody
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: who I had respect for fall so precipitously, you know,
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: as far as the logistics of what happened, I mean,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: assuming this story is even true. Now, he does not
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: show the marks on his back during this this clip,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: which you know you would think would be natural. He says,
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: they're still there. Of course, you know Oxhom's razor. He's
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: in a bed with four dogs. I guess it's theoretically
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: possible that this could have been done by a dog
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: and not a demon. I'm pretty dark sure it wasn't
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: a Demon's That's where I am on this. I'm pretty
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: confident this was not done by a demon.
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: But the fact that he seems to actually.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: Believe this is very troubling to me and an indication
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: that all is not well in Tucker Carlson's life or
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: in his mind. And yet this is one of the most,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: if not the most influential, quote unquote right wing conservative
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: voices in America today.
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: That's how broken everything is.
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: This is the guy, this is the guy who either
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: really believes this happened or is concocting a totally fabricated,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: absurd story for reasons that are not evident on their face.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: That's where we are, folks. It's just really amazing and sad, pathetic,
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: but also kind of funny. You gotta laugh. You have
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: to laugh at this now.
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: Somewhat related in my mind to this episode was something
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: that happened with Hugh Hewitt, another quote unquote conservative commentator.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: You Hewitt is kind of like the poor man's Tucker Carlson.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: They're both pseudo intellectuals. They've used to create that persona
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: or brand about themselves. Hugh Ewitt is nowhere near as talented,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: not funny at all, and not as smart as I
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: used to think Tucker Carlson was. But you Ewitt likes
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: to think of himself that way, even though he's wrong
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: all the time. I mean, you Ewitt is almost as
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: wrong as Dick. By the way, Dick Marris is predicting
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: a Trump landslide, so Trump's in big trouble, folks. Although
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: you know Jim Kramer from CNBC is predicting a Harris victory.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: So something's got to give there with two people are
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: never right about anything, but you Ewit is wrong all
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: the time, and I have no love for you Ewit.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: I actually had a confrontation with him in an event
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: many years ago, weirdly where he was upset that I
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: was attacking Sean Hannity as a fraud, which I think
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: I was one hundred percent right on, but you ewit
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: was very upset.
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: He was in the.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: Crowd where I was on a panel, and he confronted
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: me during the Q and A. It did not go well.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think it went well for him, but it
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: was It was not a situation that everyone was particularly
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: happy with, but you ew it was doing a Washington
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: Post Internet panel discussion with two liberals and he walked out,
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: literally walked out on it because he thought that Trump
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: was not being treated fairly.
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: And then he just couldn't take it anymore.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: And then he, I guess, announced that he was quitting
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: the Washington Post as a columnist, even though he.
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: Was very rarely a columnist there. I don't know.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: I'm in somewhat the similar boat I am with the
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: Tucker Carlson situation. I don't know what was really going
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: on there. Ewitt's reaction as I watched it seemed sincere,
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: but it also could have been contrived, or maybe it
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: was a little bit of both. Maybe he was looking
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: for an excuse to do something like that, and he
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: got it.
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't trust you Ewitt.
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: I don't trust the conservative media at all in the
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: Trump era in general. And you Ewitt sold out to
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Trump in a very dramatic way, somewhat similar to on
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: a lower level, to what Tucker Carlson did. You Hewett
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: was never going to be a Trump supporter at the beginning,
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: but he eventually realized that his career was dependent on it,
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: so he went all in on Trump eventually. And so
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: now he's making this principal stand just before the election
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: by quitting the Washington Post. I don't know if it
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: was sincere. I don't know if it was contrived. My
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: gut tells me it was probably a little bit of both.
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: But I at least wanted to mention it because it's
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: been getting a lot of play, and it's obviously.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: A clear media issue.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: And it's particularly ironic given the fact that the Washington Post,
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: because of Jeff Bezos, just decided to not endorse Kamala Harris,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: and there were reports that Jeff Bezos has put out
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: the word that he wants to hire more conservatives at
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: the Washington Post. You would think this would not be
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: the environment where you ewitt would make this kind of
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: a stand, especially when in theory they would be wanting
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: to use you ewit more regardless of who ends up
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: winning this election.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: So that whole situation didn't.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: Totally make a lot of sense to me, But like
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: I said, I wanted to mention it because it's made
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: a lot of news in the media realm, as did
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris's appearance on Saturday Night Live over the weekend,
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: and this created quite a controversy, which a little bit
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: surprised me, because you know, there's this thing called the
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: equal time laws, and you know the FCC guidelines where
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: if you give a candidate, you know, unfettered time, you're
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: supposed to give equal time to the other candidate or candidates.
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: But this has kind of.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: Been watered down in its interpretation over the years, and
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: it's very difficult to enforce, and so I was I
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: was surprised that this became as big of an issue
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: when Kamala Harris appeared live at the start of Saturday
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: Night Live. It's important to point out it was not funny.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: It wasn't even original. I mean, Saturday Night Live used
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: the same concept of Maya Rootov looking into a dressing
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: room mirror and seeing supposedly herself when it was actually
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris. They've done that at least two or three
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: other times, you know, high profile situations over the years
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: at Saturn and Olive, including I think even with Donald
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Trump himself. And so it wasn't original, it wasn't funny.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: It was clearly just an opportunity to have Harris take
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: a bow in front of a very liberal New York
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: City crowd make it clear to everyone that the show
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: was favoring or quote unquote endorsing Harris, because maybe they'd
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: taken a little bit of backlash for not being totally
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: pro Harris and their comedy bits leading up to this,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: they wanted to make it clear where they're still on
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: team Harris. They threw rose pedals down in their path,
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: they took a few shots at Trump. I mean, it
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: was basically an in kind contribution by NBC.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: To the Harris campaign.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: And one of the Republican commissioners of the FCC immediately
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: raised objections about this on equal time grounds, and at
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: first I thought, well, that's interesting. I don't know this
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: is going to go anywhere. They made the argument that
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: NBC did this strategically on the last weekend because there's
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: like a seven day provision and obviously because there was
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: less than seven days before the election. His opinion was
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: that NBC did this on purpose so that there was
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: no way to fix the problem, at least under the law.
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: But NBC did, whether it was pressure from that commissioner,
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: whether it was fear over what happens if Trump wins.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: Let's be clear, this is this is one of the
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: benefits that happens because there is a real belief that
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: Trump could win.
• 52:41
  Speaker 6: This.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: You know that Jeff Bezos decides not to allow a
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: Washington Post endorsement in USA today and the LA Times
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: do similarly no Harris endorsement. Partially, I'm sure because there's
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: at least a threat that Trump could win and what
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: happens if he's president. Well, if Harris was blowing the
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: doors off of this, so she was clearly going to win.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: I don't think NBC is so quick to respond in
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: the way that they did.
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: But they gave.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: Trump and very odd, unfettered basically statement to be given
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: both on a NASCAR broadcast on NBC and.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: On Sunday Night Football.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: So clearly NBC was frightened about what might happen should
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: Trump win and there be a specific objection to what
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: they did with regard to Kamala Harris and equal time
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: provisions on Saturday Night Live. I have no idea who
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: wins out in that exchange. I mean, you know, Trump
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: basically got two free commercials on NBC. Obviously he doesn't
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: get the same kind of treatment. I mean, the value
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: in the Harris appearance was having the crowd screaming, you know,
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: in her, in her favor, and having the performers on
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Saturday Night Live slobber.
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: All over her.
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: It was clearly an endorsement by the show. That's not
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: what happened on Sunday Night Football or during the NASCAR broadcast.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: But it's, you know, obvious that NBC.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: Is trying to do something to make this issue go away,
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: especially if Trump were to win.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: Now, is Trump going to win? That's the big question.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: Of course.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: It's been what we've been talking about on a consistent
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: basis for about a year now. Ever since it was
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: clear at least to me that Trump was going to
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: be the Republican nominee because he was going to win
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: the primary. Because for many reasons, but one of which
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: was the fact that the conservative media was in the
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: tank for Trump and that there was no way for
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: anyone to beat him, a specially in a multi candidate race.
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: And that's exactly, unfortunately what ended up happening. Now, as
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: you might expect, I have given an enormous amount of
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: thought and time and effort into figuring out what is
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: going to happen on this election Day, twenty twenty four
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: and beyond as we.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: Count the votes.
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: As I give context for my prediction, I want to
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: give a little bit of history on how things have
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: gone in the past when I have made presidential predictions.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: There have been several campaigns that are notable in this regard.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: I'll start with two thousand, two thousand.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: I was so positive that the election was going to
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: come down to Florida and Florida alone, and I was
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: hugely rooting for George W. Bush against Al Gore that
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: half jokingly, half seriously, my brother and I conspired to
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: figure out a way to try to get our stepmother,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: who was a Liberal, to either not vote or to
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: vote for George W.
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: Bush.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: We were pretty confident our dad would vote for George W. Bush,
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: but I was so sure it was all about Florida
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: and that Florida.
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: Was going to be super close.
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: Now even I didn't think it would be six hundred
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: votes or less, but that was actually a serious conversation
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: in our family, and it turned out to go exactly
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: that way. And I spent a lot of time in
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Florida during that whole recount situation, and George Bush clearly
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: was the correct winner in Florida, and that's why he
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: ended up winning the two thousand election. In two thousand
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: and four, I was working as a talk show host
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: on KFI Radio in Los Angeles, and that was probably
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: the best prediction I ever made as far as how
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: the whole thing was going to go down, because I
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: told my listeners almost hour by hour exactly how the
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: election was going to transpire, even to the point where
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: I predicted that in the middle of the night, Vice
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: presidential candidate John Edwards, remember him, what a fraud he was,
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: was going to come out and make a statement to
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: try to pause the media from calling key races in
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: Bush's favor. He was going to try to effectively pretend
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: that the race was not over, that Bush had not won.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: Intimidate at least liberal media outlets to not call the
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: remaining races, and that's exactly what happened. I said it
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: would all come down to Ohio. It came all the
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: way down to Ohio, and I said that Bush would
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: eventually win, but that there would be a delay because
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: of the aftermath and the legacy of the two thousand election,
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: that Democrats would learn their lessons and they would actually
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: try to get as much to lay as possible and
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: try to get the media to not do what they
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: did in two thousand, which was to initially call Florida
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: for Gore, then call Florida for Bush, and then have
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: a month and a half two months of chaos in
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: soon ensue after that.
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: Well, I actually think that that is an important lesson
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: history lesson to remember for what we may be in
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: for in.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: This election, because I think we're headed for a very
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: similar circumstance where if this goes down anything close to
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: the way that the polling is indicating, we're going to
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: have a major problem into Tuesday nine and Wednesday morning
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: when it comes to partisan media outlets being either hesitant
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: to call races or eager to call races based upon
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: what their core audience wants.
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: We saw it for the first time in two thousand
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: and four.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: People forget I'll never forget this because I was on
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: the air for like seven hours straight. By the way,
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: I am convinced that something happened to my voice that night,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: that my voice has never been exactly the same as
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: it was after that seven hour broadcast that I did
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: on KFI.
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know that for sure, but that's something that
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: I had.
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: Something really dramatic happened to my voice in the days
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: after that, where I wasn't even able to go on
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: the air, and so I've never felt one hundred percent
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: the same after that, for better or for worse.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: Not that I ever had a great voice, but.
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: I do not feel as if I sound the same
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: as I did that night. And on that night, one
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: of the things that I was screaming bloody murder about
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: literally and figuratively was that there were media outlets that
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: were calling states and not calling states purely because of
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: what their political bias was.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: So nobody actually gave.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: Bush the two hundred and seventy votes to win, but
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: they were calling different states. In other words, there were
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: some states that were still not called on liberal outlets
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: and some states that were still not called on Fox
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: News Channel all because everyone was afraid to go over
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: the two hundred and seventy magic number that you need
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: to win in the electoral college. And I think we
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: could end up seeing a very similar situation in twenty
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: twenty four. In two thousand and eight, twenty twelve, I predicted,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: like most people did, that Obama would win. I did
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: not buy in twenty twelve that Romney was going to
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: be the winner that a lot of conservatives bought into
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: a lot of the conservative media, including by the way,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: Hugh Hewitt, one of many conservative commentators who was totally
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: wrong in twenty twelve.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: I was not in that category.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: I believe that Obama would win in twenty twelve, but
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: I was wrong in twenty sixteen. Obviously a lot of
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: people were wrong in twenty sixteen. I did not think
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: that Trump would win. I thought it would be close,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: but I did not think he would win. By the way,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: I don't think he thought he would win, and I
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: don't think his campaign thought he would win. But I
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: was wrong in twenty sixteen. However, I was correct in
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, and I was correct at twenty twenty when
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: it came to my predictions about how those elections would
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: turn out. I think it was pretty darn closed to
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: correct in twenty twenty two. By the way, in twenty
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: twenty not only was I correct trying to make up
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: for having botched the twenty sixteen election, I didn't just
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: pick Biden to beat Trump. I nailed the electoral college
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: tally on the exact number. Now, I flip flopped two
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: different states. I think North Carolina and Georgia. I think
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: that's what I did. I think I should go back
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: and look at it, but I'm pretty sure that I
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: flip flopped North Carolina and Georgia. So I didn't get
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: every state. I only got forty eight of the fifty states.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: But I got the electoral college number exactly right in
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: predicting that Biden would beat Trump. So I have a
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: pretty good, though not per record in this realm. And
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: the way that I go about determining, Okay, who's going
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: to win a presidential election is fairly complex, and this
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: might be the most complex of any because we're dealing
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: with an unprecedented situation. I think that's an important thing
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: to remember as we go into this. This is truly
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: unprecedented in so many ways. We've never had a situation
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: where in a modern history a president who had been
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: president and lost is now trying to run for a
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: third straight time. That's never happened. We've never had a
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: candidate to be helicoptered into the race when the president
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: of United States spous out after a presidential debate, after
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: the Republicans have already had or the opponents have already
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: had their convention and picked their vice presidential nominee, and
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: effectively we only had a couple of months of a
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: real campaign. We've never had anything like this happen before.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: So we're in uncharted territories.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: The territory. This is unprecedented.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: So it's inherently going to be very, very difficult, especially
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: given the fact that we're living in an era where
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: communication is so so different than it ever has been before,
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: so much more complex, that we have no idea really
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: how much to rely on the polling. I mean, there
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: are some arguments to be made that polling is completely
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: irrelevant in this era now that the landline has gone
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: the way of the telephone booth basically, but there are
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: other people think, well, no, our technologies have improved so much,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: and we have so many different forms of data that
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: maybe polling has actually gotten better.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: Well, we're going to find that out.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: We don't know as of right now, because we only
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: do presidential elections every four years, and frankly, the twenty
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: twenty election was the ultimate out a liar because of.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: The COVID panic.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: I have said before, I'll say it again, I am
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: not buying into any of these early vote projections that
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: compare anything to twenty twenty.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: I think it is a complete waste of time. It
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: is absurd, it.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: Is fanciful, It is silly to compare anything to twenty twenty.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: Now you might be able to compare to twenty sixteen,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: but in my view, we're living in a completely different
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: world in so many different ways than twenty sixteen, especially
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: from a technological perspective and a media standpoint. The world
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: is very different than it was in twenty sixteen. So
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's anything to compare these, you know,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: early voting numbers too in a way that can really
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: tell you reliably how this is all going to go down.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: But I do consider pulling to be legitimate. I know
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: a lot of people think that it's.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: Witchcraft, that it's, you know, basically believing that demons attacked
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: you in your bad at night, that it's hocus post
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: and that there's nothing really to that. I don't believe that.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, there was a lot of polling in twenty
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: twenty and twenty twenty two that was pretty darn accurate,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: and I look at the polling very carefully. Some people
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: think I think I look at it too carefully, but
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: I think the polling is relevant. It is not, by
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: any stretch of the imagination, the only way to interpret
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: what is actually happening or what is going to occur
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: on election Day. And when it comes to the polling
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: in this race, I have never seen polling that is
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: remotely close to what we have seen between Trump and
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: Harris for reasons I'm going to get to in a moment,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: but I want to start with the fact that what
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: we're seeing is unprecedentedly close, unbelievably close. It is, in fact,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: the polling is too close. Is it is statistically speaking,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: impossible close. Nate Silver has put out a theory on
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: this that I now believe is probably true. And I'm
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: someone who has had it out with Nate Silver publicly
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: on multiple occasions. I think he's a bit of a
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: political hack and a bit of a fraud, but I
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: think he's very good at math.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: That's where Nate silver strength is.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: And he put out a post that basically said, what
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: we're seeing with regard to all these posters with incredibly
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: close results, all within a point or two is basically
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: statistically impossible.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: And he believes that it's being contrived.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: And this is something that I have kind of hitt
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: it at for quite a while.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: I did not articulate it the way that Silver.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: Did, but I think he's right, and I think there's
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: been evidence in just the last couple of days that
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: he's right that these polls are being contrived. Let me
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: give you an example of this insider advantage. A very
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: pro Trump poll has all of their swing state results,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: their final swing state results out, and Trump is either
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: winning by one or two in every single one of
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: them except one state he's tied, so he's not losing
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: any swing states. But he also doesn't get over forty
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the vote in any of those states.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: Now what does this mean. Well, first of all, that
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: makes me inherently suspicious, because that is a series of
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: polls with inherent plausible deniability, because if you have Trump
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: at forty nine or forty eight but winning by only
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: one or two points or tied, that means that if
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: Harris ends up winning fifty forty nine or fifty forty eight,
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: or forty nine, forty eight, forty nine and a half
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: forty nine, whatever it is, you can simply say, well,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: the late breaking voters went for her, and we were
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: actually dead on we you know, we didn't say that
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: he was gonna get fifty percent of the vote, and
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: she ends up, you know, winning all these states. That
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: insider advantage has Trump winning. So that feels contrived right
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: on the surface, right from a purely political perspective, that
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: feels contrived as a pro Trump poster. But statistically, and
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: this is where Nate Silver's theory comes in. Statistically, it's
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: literally impossible. And let me explain briefly basically why it's impossible.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: Because each one of these state polls has a margin
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: of error. Generally the margin of error is two and
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: a half to three points. Well, that means that you can,
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: let's say it's three points, just to make it simpler,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: if you have a.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: Poll that's as a margin of error three points.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: That means if you have Trump plus three, the actual result,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: the actual reality could be Harris plus three because it's
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: three points in either direction.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: So just by basic statistics.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: Math and logic, you should if you're doing polling properly,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: Let's say you have every let's say in reality, every
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: state is tied. Right, by basic statistics and probabilities.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: You should get Trump up by three.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: You should get Harris up by three in different states
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: because they're different sample sizes, they're different, different people. Theoretically,
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: there's different posters, so those are completely different polls. They're
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: being done at the same time so that they can
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: be released at the same time to make more impact.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: But these are the respondents are different, the people on
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: the phones are different, obviously, the states are different. So
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: these are different polls, and for every single one to
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: have the exact same result effectively way within the six
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: point margin of error in either direction is incredibly suspicious,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: especially given the fact that insider Advantage, like others are,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: is a right wing poster that clearly is appealing to
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: Trump fans for whatever reason, whatever agenda that they have.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: Now that doesn't mean it's wrong. I'm not saying it's wrong.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: I'm saying it's inherently suspicious and lacking in statistical credibility,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: and it's not just insider advantage. I'm just using them
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: as an example. Because this came out yesterday. We're seeing
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: Emerson came out with a poll today that's almost exactly
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: the same. You should have statistical variance. Even again, let's
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: just pretend for sake of argument, everything is tied.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: Let's say just by magic, everything is tied.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: You should have the same number of polls saying Trump
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: is up by two or three as you have Harris
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: is up by two or three.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: And we're not seeing that.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: We're not in a lot of these poles, not all,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: but in a lot of these poles, especially the right
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: wing poles, we're not seeing that statistical variance, which makes
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: me question everything. Makes me think, hold on a second,
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: and state Silver says, statistically, it's not just improbable, it's
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: literally impossible, like into the I think it's into the
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: billions or something crazy that there's no chance that all
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: these poles are doing this legitimately. And I think the
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: theory is that what they're doing is they're getting their
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: results and then they're you know, using way as hocus
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: pocus or special sauce to come up with the result
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: that they think makes the most sense. Well, it might
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: make the most sense based upon their view of reality,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: or it might make the most sense based upon what
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: they think their self interest is. And if you're insider advantage,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: you have two agendas. One you're pro Trump. Two you
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: want to keep some semblance of credibility. Right, So you
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: put out a poll just before the election, and Trump's
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: winning or at least tied in all of the swing states,
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: but it's close enough and he's not at fifty percent,
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: so that you have plausible deniability if he ends up.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: Losing any or all of them. Hey we were darn close.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: Well we were wrong, but we were also given the
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: basics of statistics putting out data that doesn't make any sense.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: There should be more variance to it. So I'm very
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: skeptical now, even more so than I have been of
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: the light wing polsters in particular, but frankly all the
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: polls in general, because I don't think there's been enough
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: variance to be statistically consistent with the way that this
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: should work.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: Now, being more more specific to.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: A poll that has really created an enormous amount of conversation,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: stir and consternation, at least in the Trump campaign.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: There was a poll out of Iowa by the.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: Des Moines Register that is done by a very prominent
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: and well respected pollster, a woman by the name of
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: Anne Seltzer, which came out over the weekend and shocked
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: everybody because it showed that Harris was beating Trump and
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: that Trump only had forty four percent in Iowa. Now,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: this is her state. She has an extremely good record
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: of polls in her state, and this is a state
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: that has become a red state.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: People forget it wasn't that long ago that Iowa was
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: a purple state and a key swing state. That has
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: not been the case in recent presidential elections. Iowa has
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: become a fairly solid red state. But that's not what
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: the Des Moines Register is showing out of the blue.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: They're showing Harris up by three Trump at only forty
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: four percent. Now, it should be pointed out that there
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: was an Emerson poll put out of the exact same
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: time that had Trump up by nine, which is exactly
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: where most people would have expected.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: Him to be in Iowa. But because Seltzer is so.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: Respected and the Des Moines Register has such a good
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: track record, and because, let's face it, liberals really really,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: really really want that poll to be correct, because if
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: that poll is correct, if the De Moines Register poll
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: is correct, Harris is not just going to win this election.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: She's gonna win this election easily. And it's not just because,
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: you know, if she wins Iowa, she wins. If she
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: wins iowas she clearly wins Wisconsin and Michigan and probably Pennsylvania,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: in which case it's all over.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: Am I convinced to that? No, if you look at the.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: Internals on this poll, there are some major problems and
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: some major assumptions that don't seem to make a lot
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: of sense. And the gender gap is so off the
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: charts with women, especially elderly women, voting for Harris that
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: it really is inherently suspicious. Now, from a polling perspective,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: you know, the geeks that are into polling, this is
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: really fascinating stuff because either Anne Seltzer has solidified herself
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: as a genius if it turns out that Harris, you know,
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: either wins or comes close to winning Iowa and therefore
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: wins the election easily, or she has blown up her
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: entire career of credibility. There's really only two options at
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: this point, and I don't know what it's going to be.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: If I'm the Trump campaign, I'm nervous. I'm nervous about
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: the Des Moines Register poll. I don't think it's determinative.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: I think, like I said, there's some problems, there's some
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: legitimate reasons to greatly question the poll. It's just I guess,
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: you know, under that scenario, people are eventually wrong, no
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: matter how good you are. You know, eventually Tom Brady
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: loses a Super Bowl or two, and so that could
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: be what's happening with the Des Moines Register. But that
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: is certainly the most remarkable polling result that we have
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: seen in the closing elements of this campaign. So what's
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: actually gonna happen here. Well, I don't think you can
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: rely only on the polling. For the reason that I've
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: already stated. I think the polling is important to take
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: into consideration, but I don't rely only on the polling.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: I love football analogies, and I have a football analogy
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: for how I look at this outside the context of
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: the polling, Because the polling is kind of like the scoreboard, right,
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: but we don't know if the score is being properly tabulated.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: So the way I look at this, the way I
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: evaluate it, it's like it's a football game where the
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: scoreboard is turned off, where we don't know we're not
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: going to know what the score is until the game
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: is over. So as I'm looking at this campaign, I
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: look at as it at it.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: I look at it as.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: If it is a football game where we do not
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: know for sure what the score is. We may see
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: one team or the other scoring a touchdown or making
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: a turnover or committing a penalty or whatever, but we
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: just don't no for sure what the actual score is.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: And when I look at Trump versus Harris as a
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: football game, I start off with the premise that these
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: are two fairly evenly matched teams. Obviously, Trump is facing
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: effectively the same team slightly different for a third straight
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: election cycle, and he won one, he lost one. Now
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: is he the same Trump as he was in twenty sixteen? No,
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: he has certain disadvantages since then, obviously, being twice impeached
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: and being thirty four times convicted of felonies and being
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: indicted four times in January sixth You know all that
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: plus he's now seventy eight years old. All that you
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: know is taking into consideration as to how good the
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: Trump team is. Of course, there's the other part of
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: this that the Trump team actually was president for four
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: years and a lot of people felt good about most
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: not all of those four years, especially not the fourth year.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: The COVID panic here.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: But so when you compare the Trump team to twenty sixteen,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: there's some positives, there's some negatives. I think the Trump
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: team is slightly weaker than it was in twenty sixteen,
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: but it's in the basically the same realm about the
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: same team. And as far as the Harris team, the
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: Hairs team is in theory better than the Biden team was,
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: which was gonna lose to the Trump team because she's younger,
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: and she can put sentences together, and she's a woman
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: of color. So all that you know basically puts this
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: in a similar vein to the Hillary situation. They're basically
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: the same team. It's similar. I mean, you can argue
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: either way stronger, a little bit weaker, but the teams
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: are basically evenly matched.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: So if you have a football.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: Team game between two teams that are evenly matched, what's
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: gonna determine who wins.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: Well, first of all, you got the weather. What's the
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: weather look like?
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: Well, this is not going to be a game in
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: a domed stadium. The weather matters. The biggest element of
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: the weather is the economy, right, the economy still tends
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: to drive most people's voting behavior. And so what does
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: the economy look like? What does the weather for this
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: game look like? What are the environmental circumstances? And in general,
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: I would say that the environmental circumstances favor the Trump team,
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: not as much as a lot of Trump fans believe.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: I have no doubt that the economy is not in
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: great shape. A lot of people are suffering. Inflation has
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: really hit people, especially at the grocery store and at
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: the gas tank and other places. And obviously it's impossible
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: to afford a home anymore.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: So inflation is terrible. The job market is not good.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: The most recent job numbers were terrible, though the news
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: media tried their best to commute or ignore that, and
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: that's of course what the news media always does in
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: presidential elections. Bad economy is never going to be focused
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: on when the Democrat is effectively the incumbent, which you
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: would think Harris is, although she's pretended that she's not so.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: I think the weather in this game favors the Trump team.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: But you also have to remember that for a lot
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: of voters, especially suburban voters, especially suburban moms, the things
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: they care most about in the economy, the fact that
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: their house is worth more than it's ever been and
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: the fact that the stock market is at its highest
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: level that it's ever been, indicate to them that in
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: their world, the economy is not bad at all.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: In fact, it's actually pretty good.
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: But I acknowledge that the weather in this game favors
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: the Trump team. Then there's the refs. Well, we all
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: know that the refs are going to favor the Harris team,
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: and boy, if they favored the Harris team the Democrat
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: team in a huge way. We've obviously documented that on
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: a twice weekly basis on this podcast. It has been dramatic.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: It has been at least as bad, if not worse
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: than even the two thousand and eight election, about which
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: I did a documentary called Medimalpractice How Obama got elected.
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: I don't even need to go through it all one
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: hundred percent. The reps have been clearly on the side
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: of Harris in a way that obviously has to have
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: some impact. However, unlike in the National Football League, where
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: the referees dominate everything, the referees have lost a lot
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: of power in presidential elections. So even though the bias
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: is as bad as it's ever been, I don't know
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: that it's as impactful as it has been in the past.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: So while the weather is in the Trump teams favor,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: not as much as they would like to believe, the
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: referees are in the Harris teams favor. But I don't
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: think that that has as much impact as certainly it
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: used to have.
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: Then, when you watch this.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: Football game with no scoreboard, you look at it and
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: you go who gets the breaks? You know, there's there's
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: breaks that happen in football games. So if which team
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: is getting lucky? And you know, to me, I think
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: that the entire narrative of this campaign, and by far
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: the biggest thing that happened it's not even close, occurred
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: when we had the remarkable series of events that began
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: with the terrible Biden debate performance, the assassination attempt against
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, which he heroically survived, and then Joe Biden
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: getting out because of the coup that started after his
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: terrible debate performance and Harris being handed the nomination. That
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: is the most dramatic series of events.
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: I'm confident in saying in the.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: History of American presidential politics, maybe in the history of
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: international politics, I'm unaware of any three week period that
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: was more impactful than that one was in this election.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: And I have a football analogy which I think is
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: going to help us through as I give the analysis
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: for how this is all going to go down. Fifteen
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: years ago in the Super Bowl, and this is particularly
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: appropriate because of where these two teams were from. The
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers played the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl,
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: so Pennsylvania and Arizona obviously two very very key swing states.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: And in that Super Bowl, just before halftime, the Arizona
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: Cardinals looked as if they were about to score a
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: touchdown and in really, in my view of the most
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: remarkable play in Super Bowl history, and I don't think
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: it actually gets nearly enough attention, especially since ironically enough,
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: my good friend, the late great Franco Harris, is credited
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: with the most memorable play in the history of football,
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: the Immaculate Reception Well, what transpired next was way more
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: amazing than the immaculate reception, which was mainly due to
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: luck and Franco being in the right place at the
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: right time. But James Harrison, a defensive lineman for the
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers, intercepted a pass and went one hundred yards
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: to score a touchdown right before half. Most amazing football
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: play I've ever seen, most impactful play because because it
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: happened just at the end of the first half, it
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: was effectively a fourteen point play. I mean, it could
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: not have been a bigger switch of momentum and reality
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: in all of You couldn't conceive of something being a
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: bigger change in the circumstances of a game than one
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: team going from looking like they're about the score right
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: before halftime to the other team having a defensive lineman
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: go one hundred yards in the other direction to score. Well,
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: the analogy here is that's what happened when it came
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: to the Biden coup and the switcheroo. The you know,
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: and this is not a perfect analogy, but you know,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: Trump's victory in the debate and the assassination attempt appeared
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: to put him in the cat bird seed. I mean,
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: the way he handled that, the way that Biden looked
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: completely dead in the water, all of it looked like
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: this was going in Trump's direction, and then there was
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: this incredible turnaround that the referees completely allowed to occur.
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: Like this, in my analogy, there were all sorts of
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: penalties when Harrison returned the interception one hundred yards that
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: weren't called. Oh, I don't know if they really were.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: I having looked at the play recently, maybe I'm sure
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: there was something they could have called a penalty on
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: if they.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: Had wanted to.
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: But the dramatic shift that occurred from the assassination attempt
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: to Biden's withdraw to Harris being handed the denomination, in
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: my view, was a huge turn of events, taking a
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: situation that was very pro Trump and turning it into
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: a circumstance that was very pro Democrat, or specifically pro Harris,
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: and that to me was the biggest break.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: Of this game. I mean, that is a very.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: Very very difficult break to overcome if you're on the
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: short side of it.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: If you're going in.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: For a touchdown right before half and the other team
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: with a defensive lineman runs it back one hundred yards
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: and scores just as the clock's running out. Then that
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: is that's a killer, that's a gut punch. How do
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: you overcome that in an evenly matched game, Very very
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: difficult to do so, And so that you know, to me,
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: I think there are some pretty good parallels to this situation,
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: not just because it was a team from Pennsylvania and
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: a team from Arizona. I'll revisit that in just a
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: little bit. So when you look at the breaks of
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: this circumstance, obviously the biggest break of all was Trump
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: not getting killed in that assassination attempt. I mean, turning
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: his head, I mean, was the most impactful thing that
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: occurred during this entire campaign, because obviously he doesn't turn
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: his head.
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: In all likelihood, he's dead and he's.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: No longer the nominee, and in all likelihood, I mean,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: who knows what happens at that point, but it's hard
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: to imagine that Biden gets out. Biden's probably re elected.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's how bizarre and how huge that whole
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: chain of events really was and how it could have
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: played out very very differently. So you have this the break,
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: you know, in one way, going Trump's way, and then
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: very soon after going very much in the reverse direction
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: because of the coup and the switcheroo. So then I
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: go to how did each team play the game? You know,
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: when you watch this game, when those scoreboard the two
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: evenly matched teams, who played better like, who scored more often,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: who gained more yards, who played up to their potential
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: more so than the other team.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: So how did they play the game?
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: And when I look at this from the Trump perspective,
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: I don't think they played the game that well. I
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: don't think the Harris team played very well either. In fact,
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: I think she played it terribly. I think she was
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: an awful, awful quarterback to use the analogy, and you
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: know for reasons that I've articulated and documented many many
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: times on this podcast. So I don't think that Harris
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: played up to potential, but I don't think she was
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: a particularly good player to begin with. I am incredibly
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: frustrated by the fact that the Trump team did not
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: take advantage of nearly all of their opportunities. They had
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: numerous opportunities. I have talked many times before about maybe
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: the biggest from a narrative perspective, and that is California, California, California.
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: How the fuck was that not a major theme of
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: the Trump campaign. Now some people claim that it was,
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: I've only seen it on a couple of occasions. To me,
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: it should have been everything. I mean, every single voter
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: ought to know that her entire history is based in California,
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: her DNA is California woke politics and vice versa, and
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: her history in California. Where California is going. California is
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: exceedingly unpopular politically in most of the swing states. We
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: have polling data that proved that. Steve Cortes, with my advice,
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: proved that in Nevada and Arizona. But that was not
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: a consistent theme, even though Gavin Newsom gave all sorts
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: of opportunities, the governor of California gave all sorts of
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: opportunities to the Trump campaign to make California the issue
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: in just the last couple of months of the presidential campaign.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: Wal Harris was the nominee, former Senator from California, former
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: Attorney General of California, obviously very tight with Newsom and
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: Pelosi in the entire woke California laitue. Gavin Newsom took
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: basically emergency actions to take on homelessness, to take on crime,
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: to take on the price of gasoline, and the price
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: of electricity.
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: Those are just a few of the examples.
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: They are all sorts of crazy things that the California
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: legislature did that every swing voter should have known about,
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: because this is the type of government you're gonna bring
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: to Washington if Kamala Harris as president. But those four
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: things right there, well, why is it the Gavin Newsom
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: is needing to take emergency action on homelessness?
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: Crime?
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: Why is their proposition thirty six that I talked about
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: earlier in this podcast, and the price of gasoline in
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: the price of electricity. By the way, none of those
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: actions are going to work because it's just more liberalism
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: to try to fix problems that liberalism created to begin with.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: So and yet the Trump campaign has done nothing to
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: try to jump on these opportunities, jump on these fumbles,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: if you will, to use the football analogy that Newsom
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: has provided the Trump campaign, and I do not understand it.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: It is baffling to me. It is very frustrating, and
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: it could be decisive.
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: Similar to that.
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: How come Kamala Harris is a DEI vice president. Has
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: never been a full campaign narrative.
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: It's been touched on.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: Trump's made comments about it, but DEI is almost dead
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: in the water. It is very unpopular, It has a
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: very negative connotation to it. And Joe Biden effectively admitted
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: in a White House statement that Kamala Harris was a
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: DEI selection as vice president. Her entire career is based
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: in the concept of DEI diversity, equity, and inclusion. She's
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: an Affirment of Action candidate. She was handed the nomination
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: without a vote. There's nothing more DEI than that. And
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: yet this has not been a consistent theme by the
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: Trump campaign, and similar to that last point, the issue
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: of sticking it to the Democrats on their we are
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: here to save democracy campaign theme. I think the Trump
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: team has missed an incredible opportunity.
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: I've talked about this.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: Jim Gaffigan, the comedian who's anti Trump, a member of
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: the liberal elite, plays Tim Walls on sn L provided
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: the Trump team with the greatest SoundBite. This was the
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: greatest break from a substantive issue perspective that I think
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: happened in the entire campaign. At that Catholic Charities dinner
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: in New York City, the Al Smith Dinner, where Jim
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: Gaffigan laid out the absurdity of Democrats being the party
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: to save democracy when they pulled off the Biden coup
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: and they handed Harris denomination with no votes, and he
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: did so in a succinct and humorous and cutting fashion.
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: I think it was thirty eight seconds long. It was
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: perfect for a one minute commercial. And the Trump campaign,
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: to my knowledge, did absolutely nothing with that fumble. They
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: let the ball simply roll out of bounds when it
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: was right there for the taking, and it could have
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: been returned for a touchdown. So those are very significant
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: missed opportunities by the Trump campaign. Now, I think the
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: Harris campaign has missed a lot of opportunities too. They've
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: played very poorly. You know, I don't think they I
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: don't think they deserve to win either. I mean, let's
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: be clear, these are two terrible candidates in general who
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: have run two awful campaigns, and the media has allowed
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: this campaign to be the dumbest.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: I've ever seen.
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is the least substantive and the stupidest
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: campaign of my lifetime, and it's not even close. I mean,
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: my god, Arnold Palmer's penis got more discussion than the
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: entire COVID panic response. That's not hy purbotly, it's not
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: an exaggeration. That's how stupid this whole thing has been.
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: And so I don't think either team has played this
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: football game particularly well. But I think there have been
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: more missed opportunities by the Trump team and that they
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 1: needed to take advantage of these opportunities because obviously the
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: reps are against them in the news media. Then I
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: look at as I'm trying to evaluate this football game
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: between two teams that are evenly matched, where there's no
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: actual scoreboard that's reliable, because we don't know how much
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: the polls are getting things correct or how often they're.
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: Getting things wrong.
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: I look at what's the strategy that each team is
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: employing towards the end of the game. Now, this is
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: where there's some conflicting information, because if you look at
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: the two teams in the last couple of weeks of
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: the campaign, the Harris campaign has a times seemed like
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: they feel like they're behind, that they are throwing the
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: ball and running trick plays and scolding black men and
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: calling Trump hitler and doing all sorts of frantic, crazy
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: things that are not consistent with a team that feels
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: like they're about to win. You don't do those things
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: if you're sitting on a lead and you're just trying
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: to run the clock out. And I was one of
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: those that bought into that that there's seemed to be
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: democratic panic. Well I documented earlier in this episode, I'm
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: seeing evidence that that panic has subsided, that they have
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: seen something. Maybe it's in the late breaking voters, and
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: maybe it's the most recent campaign narrative about you know,
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: Trump being a crazy person, maybe Hitler worked, who the
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: hell knows, But for whatever reason, I'm no longer seeing
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: the same level of panic, and I'm seeing Harris making
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: very conservative moves that feel like she's taking a knee
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: at the end of a football game, whether it's responding
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 1: to Biden's garbage statement or to how she voted on
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: California's Prop thirty six. Now, that doesn't mean that she's
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: gonna win. That doesn't mean for sure that they think
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: they're gonna win. I'm just saying it certainly looks that
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: way that something happened in the last couple of weeks,
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: maybe even this last the last.
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: Week that calmed their nerves.
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: And you know, if I'm buying into this, if I'm
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 1: trying to think about why that might be, I can
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: see where one of the Harris campaign themes that seems
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: to be incredibly hypocritical and seems to be devoid of reality,
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: because it's basically, we're trying to turn the page right
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: a new way forward, And everyone's logically saying, or most
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: logical people are saying, what are you talking about.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: You've been vice president.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: For four years, your party has been in the White
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: House for twelve of the last sixteen years. What are
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: we turning the page from? How is this a new
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 1: way forward? And that campaign theme has been mocked a lot,
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: but I am somewhat of the belief as of right
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: now that that might work with low information, late deciding voters.
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: And this is partially what the Trump is hitler, and
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: the Trump is calling for Liz Cheney to be shot
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: in a firing squad and he wants to kill members
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: of the media, that all of this, even though it's bullshit,
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 1: all of this I think could be working with low information,
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: late deciding voters because they just want the rama to
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 1: be over. And Harris herself has even used that phrase
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: that when she's saying let's turn the page, what she's
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: saying is let's end Donald Trump's career. Let's be done
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: with all this Trump related drama. And people are tired
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: of this campaign. They're tired of all of it. Now,
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: that's not Trump's fault. Both sides are equally guilty of it,
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 1: all these damn campaign commercials and the emails.
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: And the texts and everything else.
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: But I can see with low information late deciding voters
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 1: that could be a deciding factor. If you're not decided yet,
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: that means you're not a policy person. That means you're
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: not following this very closely, and you're just.
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: Looking at it.
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, which person is going to make my life easier?
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: You know?
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: You know what, If I look at this as a
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 1: reality show, I'm kind of done with the Trump character.
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: And unfortunately, I think that there are significant number of
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: voters who look at it that way.
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: This is all a reality show. Now, it's just entertainment.
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: I've talked in the past about there's a certain number
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: of people that vote for Trump because they just want
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: to burn it. They fuck down, and they think he'll
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: be the most entertaining option. I think that's real, But
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: these late late deciders they might be.
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: Like, you know what, I've had enough. It's exhausting, you
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 2: know what, screw it.
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 1: I don't really like Harris, but do I really want
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 1: to put up with Trump for another four years?
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 2: Again?
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know that that's a real phenomenon, but that's
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: clearly something that the Harris team thinks is and it
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: would be consistent with what I'm perceiving as their change
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 1: in strategy over the last week or two, that they've
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: gone from frantic throwing the ball all over the place
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: to all of a sudden seemingly taking a knee. On
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: the other side, I think the Trump campaign looks very confident.
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: They look like a campaign that thinks they're going to win. Now,
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 1: there's been some you know, off the record statement saying, well,
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: we're a little concerned about the Iowa poll, or you know,
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: maybe the female vote is stronger than we thought and
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: we're concerned about that, and that's normal stuff.
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: But Trump himself and JD.
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: Vance and the campaign tactics all seem to be pretty confident.
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: So as I'm looking at this football game, it looks
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: to me like both sides are effectively acting at the
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: end of the game and their strategies.
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: As if they have won again.
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: They don't know for sure what the scoreboard says either,
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: because while their internal polling might be more accurate than
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: what we're seeing publicly, it.
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: Might not be.
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's no magic to internal polling in comparison
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: to public pulling. There's a lot of people that think
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 1: that there is, but I've never seen any evidence of that.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously depends on the circumstances.
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: But you know, just because you have internal polling doesn't
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: make it magic. And we're seeing so many of these
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 1: bullshit posts on social media. I'm seeing internal polls that say,
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: you know, Harris or Trump or landslide or super close,
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: it's all guesswork. It's all bullshit, And so I don't
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: put a lot of any stock in that. But I
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: will say that, as I'm trying to evaluate this football
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: game with no scoreboard, both teams look like they're winners,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: or they think that they're winning the game, or maybe
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: maybe they're just content for the game to go into overtime,
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: which could very well happen. We could be heading for
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 1: overtime here. So let me go into Okay, after all
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: that lead up, how do I think this is going
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: to go down?
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 2: Well?
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: I first think that as we head into this election night,
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to be seeing a lot of
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: head fakes at first. That's the first thing you're going
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: to look for. That's the first thing you're going to
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 1: have to endure if you're watching the television coverage, because
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: you're going to have a lot of situations where races
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: can't be called and then that they're too close, and
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: so the media is going to need some narrative somewhere,
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 1: and they're going to be looking for any tidbit of information,
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 1: especially if it goes against the conventional wisdom or if
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: they can extrapolate from it and they can go, oh
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: my god, this is a surprise, and this means that
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: we're heading in this direction or the other. I believe
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 1: that we're probably going to see headfakes in New Hampshire,
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: where you're going to see you know, Trump fans pretending
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: that they're going to win New Hampshire and Virginia, Virginia notoriously,
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: although I'm not sure this is going to be the
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: case now that we're into a different way.
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 2: Of casting ballots, but in Virginia.
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: Notoriously, the Republicans always do very well early in the evening,
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: and then the Northern Virginia vote comes in. Especially in
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: presidential elections where they're all federal workers, they're all going
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: to vote for Democrats, and eventually the Democrat wins.
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: So I think they're going to be fake head fakes.
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 2: That's redundant.
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: I realize there's going to be head fakes when it
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: comes to Trump potentially winning New Hampshire and Virginia. Conversely,
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: I think there's going to be a head fake in
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: the second congressional district in Maine. I think we're probably
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: going to see some reports that Trump may not win
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: the second congressional district in Maine and that this may
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 1: take away one of his key pass to victory. I
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: think eventually Trump will win the second congressional district in Maine,
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: but I anticipate there being a head fake there. Obviously,
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: there's going to be a lot of attention on Iowa,
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: and Iowa should come in not super early because it's
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the country, but earlier than some states,
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 1: and what happens in Iowa is going to be far
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: more important than was thought.
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 2: To be the case just a few days ago.
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 1: Because of that Des Moines Register poll I talked about
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: my gut tells me Trump still wins Iowa by four
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: points or thereabouts, where it's comfortable, but because there's going
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: to be so much attention on that, If Harris is
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 1: winning early in Iowa, I think you're going to see,
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 1: especially the left, left wing media outlets going bananas over
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: that result. So look for non swing states to all
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: of a sudden get a lot of attention because of
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: potential upsets.
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 2: I don't think any of those upsets.
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: Are actually going to happen, but you're going to see
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: the media focus a lot on them. Then we get
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 1: to the swing states themselves, and I think there's going
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: to be basically three stages of calls. I think by tonight,
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: Tuesday night, you're only going to be able to call
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: one or two, maybe three at most of the swing states.
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: The states most likely to be called on Tuesday night
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 1: will be Georgia for Trump and Michigan for Harris. I
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: feel fairly confident, partially because Georgia's East coast and Michigan
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: is Central time, that by Tuesday night there will be calls. Now,
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 1: they might not be universal calls because we may get
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 1: in this situation where partisan media outlets are calling different
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 1: races or not calling different races based upon what their
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 1: audience wants to hear. But I think there will be
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: a general consensus that Georgia goes for Trump and Michigan
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 1: goes for Harris. North Carolina, I am very much on
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: the fence about and I'm very conflicted about North Carolina,
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: partially because I have doubted Trump winning North Carolina for
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: two straight cycles and I was wrong. So I don't
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: know what to do with North Carolina, a state that
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 1: I like very much, that I lived in for several
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: years in the mid nineteen nineties. I've just never felt
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: that North Carolina, mostly because of the the you know,
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: the Triangle area, the Research Triangle Park area in the
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 1: middle of the state, which is very well educated and
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: a lot of liberal academics.
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 2: To me, it's just never felt like a Trump state.
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: And for two straight cycles, I was wrong in predicting
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: that Trump would lose North Carolina, and he won, and
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: last time around he won it fairly easily. So I
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: guess I don't want to be burned three times in
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: a row. I'm gonna go with Trump winning North Carolina,
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 1: but I think it's going to take a long time
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: before it is called.
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to be called on Tuesday night.
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: By midnight on Tuesday, I think all we're gonna have
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: is basically Georgia for Trump, Michigan for Harris, and the
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 1: other five will not yet be called.
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 2: In the next stage of calls.
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 1: I think that's probably when you get North Carolina for
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: and then we go out to the west coast and
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 1: the southwest and you get Arizona, which I think will
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: be called in that next stage. You know, Arizona's got
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 1: a screwy way that they count the votes. Obviously we
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: know what happened in twenty twenty two, but I think
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: we're going to be able to get a call now.
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 1: Fox News Channel might be hesitant to call Arizona this
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: time around. Maybe they'll be more more likely to call
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 1: it for Trump because they called it for Biden to
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 1: great controversy in twenty twenty. But I think Trump is
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 1: gonna win Arizona, and I think that at some point
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 1: early on Wednesday, maybe it'll be who knows what time,
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: but sometime after midnight on Tuesday, Trump will be the winner.
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: In Arizona, Nevada, I'm a little confused by because the
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 1: early numbers there indicate a Republican victory, the polling indicates
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 1: a Democrat victory. I think it'll be very very close
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 1: in Nevada. There are very few scenarios where Nevada really
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 1: but I'm gonna go with Trump winning Nevada. Eventually it'll
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 1: be called in Nevada when I don't know, probably in
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 1: that Wednesday area. But I think it'll be very very
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: close in Nevada, and I think Trump wins in Nevada.
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: So under that circumstance, I'm giving Trump all of the
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 1: Sun Belt states. They'll all be close, and they could
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 1: lose all of them. But I'm gonna go with Trump
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 1: winning Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. And then this
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 1: will take a long time. It'll be into Wednesday. There'll
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: be different stages of this. There's gonna be controversy over
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 1: which media outlet calls which state in which direction based
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: upon what their own partisan biases are. That's going to
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 1: be a major major problem. But I think at some
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: point on Wednesday, late Wednesday, we're gonna have basically two
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: states left. I think those two states left will be
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Trump will be not just one
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 1: state under my scenario.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: This is how crazy this could get, folks.
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: Trump wouldn't be just one state away from winning the presidency.
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 1: He would be one electoral College vote away from winning
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 1: the presidency, assuming that Republicans win enough House state houses,
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: because that's how it would.
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 2: Go in a two sixty nine and two sixty nine tie.
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: So you know, barring some sort of catastrophe in the House,
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 1: to sixty nine is where Trump needs to get to
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 1: win this election in the House of Representatives in a tie,
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 1: so we we could be and I believe it's likely.
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: This is what I'm predicting, for whatever it's worth, I'm
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 1: predicting we're gonna have a situation for a period of time,
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 1: whether it's on Wednesday morning or maybe in the late Wednesday,
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 1: maybe even in the Thursday, depending on how close.
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 2: This is.
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 1: Where the two outlying states are penn Sylvania and Wisconsin.
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 1: And part of why they're going to be outlying is
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: because they're so important. It won't necessarily be because they're
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: that close. It's because they're that determinative because if either
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 1: one of them under this scenario goes for Trump, he
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 1: wins the presidency, and by the way, that stray.
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: Electoral College vote.
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 1: I don't think Trump's going to win Nebraska's second congressional district,
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 1: which is what he would have to do to get
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 1: to two sixty nine.
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 2: So I don't think that's going to be a major issue.
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: That's something We've talked about many times in the past,
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: but I've stopped discussing it because I don't think Trump
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: can win Nebraska's second congressional district. So under this scenario,
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 1: we're left with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump is one electoral
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: vote away from a tie and effectively a win. I
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: think Wisconsin gets called for Harris, and a part of
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: why I'm convinced that that Harris is going to win
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin is that we've got a democratic establishment there.
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 2: You got a.
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: Partisan Democrat Supreme Court. Wisconsin has had very very close
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 1: elections with Trump two cycles in a row. But I
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 1: just think a tie kind of goes to the runner here,
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 1: and you know, possession is ninety percent of the law,
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 1: whatever cliche you want to use. I think that Harris
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 1: pulls it out in Wisconsin, which leaves us with Pennsylvania.
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: Now I hate, you know, believing in the conventional wisdom.
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 1: I hate it because the conventional wisdom is almost never right,
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: especially in politics in twenty twenty four. And the conventional
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 1: wisdom is that this is all about Pennsylvania. But I
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 1: think that's where we're headed. I think it's going to
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 1: be determined by Pennsylvania. Now, the timing of this is
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: impossible to know, because you know the difference between an
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: election that's separated by half a percentage point and one
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 1: percentage point is night and day half a percentage point.
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 1: We're counting for days, if not weeks, one percentage point
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: that's enough to where it's outside the realm of a recount,
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 1: or or you know, one side coming back at the
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 1: very end with whatever votes are still left to be counted.
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 1: So it's impossible to know the timing of this. It
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 1: could end up all being wrapped up on Wednesday. We
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: could be in a Florida situation. We could have two
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 1: Florida's under my scenario where it's Pennsylvania and Wisconsin effectively
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 1: taking the role of Florida in two thousand. But I
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: think it will come down to Pennsylvania. I think whoever
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 1: wins Pennsylvania will win. And how do I determine who's
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 1: going to win Pennsylvania. Well, you know, there are a
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 1: lot of factors that are good for Trump in Pennsylvania.
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 1: Harris did not pick Josh Shapiro as her vice presidential nominee.
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 1: You would think that that is something that could hurt her,
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 1: at least subconsciously. That there got to be some voters
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 1: who think, well, why would she pick Waltz instead of Shapiro.
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, if she had picked Shapiro, she would win
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 1: pennsylv Everyone knows this. It's almost a foregone conclusion. So
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: she doesn't pick Shapiro. You know, when you look back
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: at this football game analogy, that was a huge missed opportunity.
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 1: That was a huge strategic mistake in my view by Harris.
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 1: A blunder, a fumble, whatever, And so when you think
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 1: about Pennsylvania, you got to think about Shapiro not being
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 1: the VP. Democratic Senator John Fetterman just went on Joe
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 1: Rogan's show, and I don't know how many people are
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 1: going to be exposed to this, but Joe Rogan has
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 1: a very large audience, and Fetterman basically blew up the
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 1: entire Harris campaign argument on the illegal immigration amnesty bill
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 1: in a way that's gotten a lot of publicity. So Fetterman,
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure has helped the Harris campaign all too
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 1: much at all with that Joe Rogan appearance.
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 2: Then there's jd Vance.
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 1: Now Jade Vance is not from Pennsylvania, but he's from Appalachia.
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 1: He's from West Virginia. Much of the middle of Pennsylvania
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 1: is effectively, culturally very much the same, and so you
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 1: would think that jd Vance can resonate there.
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 2: Elon Musk is.
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 1: Spent an enormous amount of time and resources in Pennsylvania.
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 1: You would think that that would help Donald Trump there.
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 1: So there are reasons to believe that Trump, who won
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 1: Pennsylvania in twenty sixteen and lost it fairly significantly, not
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: in a landslide, but it was by a reasonable margin
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, that Trump could theoretically win it in
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty four.
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 2: Then I look.
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 1: About, look around, and I go, okay, Well, Pennsylvania, in
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 1: my view, is traditionally decided most people who are you know,
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 1: people who are commentators on politics, except this as reality
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 1: that the suburbs of Philadelphia determine who's going to win Pennsylvania,
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 1: and I don't think Trump's going to do very well
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 1: in the suburbs of Pennsylvania.
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 2: This is where I grew up.
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 1: I've talked about Bucks County, Pennsylvania, which is a key
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 1: county in the suburbs of Philadelphia. I think Trump is
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 1: going to get beaten badly in Bucks County because I
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 1: think in Bucks County you got a lot of suburban
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 1: moms who would ordinarily maybe vote Republican, but who hate Trump,
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 1: who think the economy is pretty darn good, and they're
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 1: going to vote for Harris. I don't think this just
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 1: because you know, that's my understanding of the demographics and
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 1: my prediction about how they'll view the race. But I
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: have family members that still live in Bucks County. They
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 1: all ought to be voting Republican. All of them are
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 1: voting for Harris, and they're not even thinking about voting
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 1: for Trump. So I think Trump is going to get
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 1: beaten badly by historical norms in places like Bucks County,
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 1: the suburbs of Philadelphia, and that's not good for him.
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 1: That is historically determinative, that is very, very difficult for
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 1: a Republican to overcome in Pennsylvania when Ronald Reagan Forstan's
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 1: One Pennsylvania, he dominated the Philadelphia suburbs. Now the world
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 1: is a different place. The Philadelphia suburbs are a different place.
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: But I think suburban moms are a huge problem for
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, especially in the suburbs of Philadelphia.
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 2: That doesn't mean he can't make it.
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 1: Up, because Donald Trump has an appeal in the middle
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania that is unique.
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 2: I've talked about this before.
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 1: I've talked about this in the context of the entire
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 1: penn State Joe Paterno, Jerry Sandusky scandal and are with
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 1: the Benefit of Hindsight podcast. I've even suggested on Twitter
• 1:58:39
  Speaker 1: the other day that Pennsylvania may come down. I meant
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 1: this half jokingly, half seriously, may come down to which
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 1: group votes more, people who live in trailer parks in
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 1: the middle of Pennsylvania or the swifties. Which group which
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 1: is a wild card voting group not known for their
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 1: voting prowess.
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 2: They don't vote often.
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 1: The Trump campaign has acknowledged this with their core target voter.
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 1: People in trailer parks is how I would interpret it.
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 1: In the middle of Pennsylvania, are these people actually going
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 1: to get out and vote The Swifties, young single women
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 1: traditionally not a high perpensity voting block. But are they
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 1: going to because of Taylor's Swift's endorsement and because of
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 1: Dobbs It's all connected. Are they actually going to feel
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 1: as if it is their moral obligation to get out
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 1: and vote in much higher numbers than they have historically?
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 1: And So, while I meant that somewhat jokingly, I do
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 1: think Pennsylvania may very well come down to witch group
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 1: shows up at a higher percentage those that live in
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 1: trailer parks in the middle of Pennsylvania or the Swifties.
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 1: And I gotta tell you, my BET's on the Swifties.
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 4: There.
• 2:00:03
  Speaker 1: The Swifties are devoted, and the Swifties aren't on crystal
• 2:00:07
  Speaker 1: meth nearly as much as those in trailer parks, based
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 1: upon my experience having studied the middle of Pennsylvania quite
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 1: a bit because of the whole Sandusky scandal. So if
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 1: I'm betting on one side or the other, I'm betting
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 1: on the Swifties to show up more so than the
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 1: people who live in trailer parks in the middle of Pennsylvania.
• 2:00:28
  Speaker 1: And there are indications now this is very difficult to
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 1: discern and I've already said I'm very skeptical of these numbers,
• 2:00:36
  Speaker 1: but there are indications that the Harris campaign is very
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 1: happy about the early vote among young females, and that
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 1: would be certainly consistent with the Swifty vote and with
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 1: the abortion Dobbs related voters, which are I think very
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 1: much the same demographic.
• 2:00:56
  Speaker 2: We don't know this yet.
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, I get ridiculed still to this day for
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 1: saying that the Taylor Swift endorsement matters. It matters because
• 2:01:04
  Speaker 1: it's the difference for a lot of these people in deciding, Yeah,
• 2:01:08
  Speaker 1: you know what, I don't really need to vote, and
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 1: I absolutely need to vote because Taylor wants me to.
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 2: This is a cult.
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 1: The Taylor's Swift group is a cult, an incredibly strong
• 2:01:21
  Speaker 1: and while you know, not enormously large, large enough to
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 1: impact the very close election group and so as pathetic
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 1: as that is, and think about this, folks, if I'm
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 1: even close to right, the future of the most powerful
• 2:01:37
  Speaker 1: nation in the world may be decided in Pennsylvania between
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 1: which group votes more those that live in trailer parks
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 1: or those that are being motivated by a pop singer.
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 1: That's crazy, that's insane, but that's where I think we
• 2:01:54
  Speaker 1: might be in twenty twenty four. But that doesn't mean
• 2:01:59
  Speaker 1: I think for sure that Harris is gonna win Pennsylvania.
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know with the one hundred percent certainty who's
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 1: gonna win Pennsylvania.
• 2:02:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 1: And anyone that tells you for sure I think is lying.
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 1: But it's not just my final guests or prediction is
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 1: not based just in that I trust the Swifties to
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 1: show up more than the people that live in trailer
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 1: parks in the middle of Pennsylvania. It's because I don't
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 1: trust and this is the final final straw for me.
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 1: I don't trust those that are telling me that Trump
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 1: is gonna win.
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 2: I don't trust them.
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 1: Those in the right wing media, those who are right
• 2:02:40
  Speaker 1: wing influencers on Twitter, I don't think they have any credibility.
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 1: I think that they have shown time and time again
• 2:02:48
  Speaker 1: that they are grifters, that they have confirmation bias at
• 2:02:52
  Speaker 1: best when they're being sincere, that they are often not
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 1: very bright, that they don't understand the political system, that
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 1: they are very prone to believing things that they want
• 2:03:02
  Speaker 1: to believe, that they're not about truth, and that they
• 2:03:07
  Speaker 1: like the Swifties are part of a cult, and so
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 1: therefore I don't think they have any credibility when they
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 1: tell me that Trump is going to win. And by
• 2:03:15
  Speaker 1: the way, Elon Musk, for whom I have a lot
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 1: of respect, has been tweeting out that things are looking
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 1: great in Pennsylvania, and essentially Musk is predicted that Trump
• 2:03:25
  Speaker 1: is going to win Pennsylvania. And you know, you know,
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 1: a guy who can do some of the things that
• 2:03:28
  Speaker 1: Musk has done, you got to give some credibility to
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 1: You look at Musk and you go, oh my god.
• 2:03:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's he's a data guy, he's a smart guy.
• 2:03:37
  Speaker 1: If he's saying publicly that Trump is going to win,
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 1: then doesn't that have some credibility to U? Zing It should,
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 1: But in this realm, I don't think that Musk is
• 2:03:49
  Speaker 1: thinking straight. I don't think he has any inside information.
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 2: He could be right. By the way, I want to
• 2:03:54
  Speaker 2: emphasize that he could absolutely be right. He could be right.
• 2:04:01
  Speaker 1: But if I'm gonna make a prediction, which I have
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 1: in every single election, and I promised you that I would,
• 2:04:08
  Speaker 1: I cannot say that I think it is more likely
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 1: that Trump wins Pennsylvania than Harris wins Pennsylvania. I think
• 2:04:16
  Speaker 1: by a small margin, the odds are with Harris. And
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 1: that's why, much like in that Super Bowl between the
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals, and it all comes
• 2:04:29
  Speaker 1: down to Pennsylvania and the big switcheroo change that game
• 2:04:33
  Speaker 1: around with James Harrison right before halftime. The Steelers end
• 2:04:37
  Speaker 1: up winning that game by the smallest of margins, by
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 1: this literal smallest of just barely getting a foot in
• 2:04:47
  Speaker 1: bounds and making a great catch in the corner of
• 2:04:49
  Speaker 1: the end zone at the last moments of that game.
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 1: They barely squeaked it out. And I'm not suggesting that
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 1: there's any sort of direct connection between that Super Bowl
• 2:05:02
  Speaker 1: of what's going to happen here. I'm using it symbolically,
• 2:05:05
  Speaker 1: but symbolically, I think that's where we're heading. Where the
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 1: state of Pennsylvania ends up deciding it, and they decided
• 2:05:12
  Speaker 1: by a whisker for Kamala Harris, and the final electoral
• 2:05:18
  Speaker 1: College vote total under this scenario, of which I am
• 2:05:22
  Speaker 1: comfortable but not confident, I want to make that clear,
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 1: would be two hundred and seventy for Harris and two
• 2:05:29
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty eight for Donald Trump. I also want
• 2:05:33
  Speaker 1: to make it clear that that prediction, again, I'm comfortable
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 1: with it, but I'm not confident in it is against
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 1: my own self interest. This is going to open me
• 2:05:43
  Speaker 1: up to all sorts of ridicule if Trump were to win,
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 1: which is going to be a pain in the ass,
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 1: but I'll take it. I don't care whatever taken it before.
• 2:05:52
  Speaker 1: After twenty sixteen, it would be a lot easier for
• 2:05:55
  Speaker 1: me in my life to predict that Trump was going
• 2:05:58
  Speaker 1: to win. But I just don't believe that that's the
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 1: likely scenario. It is possible, it is very possible, but
• 2:06:05
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's what's going to happen. So I'm
• 2:06:08
  Speaker 1: going to stick with Harris at two seventy Trump at
• 2:06:11
  Speaker 1: two sixty eight. And by the way, that's basically the
• 2:06:14
  Speaker 1: nightmare scenario. And we'll talk more about this in our
• 2:06:17
  Speaker 1: next episode of the podcast on Wednesday, when we have
• 2:06:20
  Speaker 1: a lot more information.
• 2:06:21
  Speaker 2: But that's the nightmare scenario.
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 1: Because under that scenario of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 1: last to be called, and they're called both for Harris,
• 2:06:28
  Speaker 1: there's going to be screaming and yelling about voter fraud, corruption,
• 2:06:33
  Speaker 1: rigged elections. People aren't going to understand it.
• 2:06:36
  Speaker 6: It.
• 2:06:37
  Speaker 1: I mean that Trump people are going to be using
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 1: this to the end degree to substantiate their past claims
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 1: of rigged elections. No one's going to have any trust
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 1: in this on the Republican side. That is a recipe
• 2:06:52
  Speaker 1: for potential disaster. That is a perfect storm of shit
• 2:06:55
  Speaker 1: that could go down under that scenario. So I am
• 2:06:59
  Speaker 1: not rooting for that scenario at all. I don't want
• 2:07:01
  Speaker 1: Kamal Harris to be president. I don't want people to
• 2:07:04
  Speaker 1: lose total trust in our system.
• 2:07:06
  Speaker 2: I don't want there to be civil unrest. I don't
• 2:07:09
  Speaker 2: want any of this.
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 1: But I'm just telling you that's the scenario that I
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 1: think is most likely.
• 2:07:15
  Speaker 2: Is it going to happen?
• 2:07:17
  Speaker 1: Probably not, because there's so many different variables and there's
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 1: so many different outcomes. I mean, you can argue that
• 2:07:25
  Speaker 1: either side is going to win six or seven of
• 2:07:28
  Speaker 1: these swing states, these coin flips as I've referred to them.
• 2:07:31
  Speaker 1: I'm predicting that Trump wins four out of seven of
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 1: those coin flips, which, by the way, I have been
• 2:07:36
  Speaker 1: saying probably means he wins the election, but in this
• 2:07:39
  Speaker 1: case it does not. He barely loses because the blue Wall,
• 2:07:44
  Speaker 1: which has been cracking. Essentially holds and it holds together
• 2:07:48
  Speaker 1: as it has in almost every single election in modern time.
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 2: They all vote in exactly the same way.
• 2:07:54
  Speaker 1: That's what happened in twenty sixteen when Trump won, It's
• 2:07:57
  Speaker 1: what happened in twenty twenty when Trump lost, and I
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 1: think it's what will eventually happen. How many days it
• 2:08:02
  Speaker 1: will take, I don't know, but eventually that is what
• 2:08:06
  Speaker 1: I think will happen in twenty twenty four. And so
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 1: this is, unfortunately, frankly, about the worst case scenario. I've
• 2:08:13
  Speaker 1: always said the worst case scenario is Kamalo wins and
• 2:08:17
  Speaker 1: Republicans completely lose trust in voting going forward, and that
• 2:08:22
  Speaker 1: is going to be very, very problematic. But you know,
• 2:08:25
  Speaker 1: maybe I'm wrong, Hopefully I'm wrong, but that's where I
• 2:08:29
  Speaker 1: am on this. As far as the other races, my
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 1: prediction for the House of Representatives is that the Democrats
• 2:08:37
  Speaker 1: will take control of the House barely by basically the
• 2:08:40
  Speaker 1: same margin that Republicans can currently control the House. I think,
• 2:08:45
  Speaker 1: for a prediction perspective, I will say that Democrats will
• 2:08:50
  Speaker 1: hold a five to ten seat advantage in the House
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 1: of Representatives, and this will happen mostly because of here
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 1: in California. I think there are four or five i've
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 1: Republican held districts that are hanging on for dear life
• 2:09:04
  Speaker 1: that cannot survive a general election with a lot more
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 1: voters with Trump on the ballot, which drives Democratic turnout,
• 2:09:12
  Speaker 1: with Harris on the ballot from the state of California,
• 2:09:15
  Speaker 1: which is going to drive even more liberal turnout in
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 1: a situation where Kevin McCarthy is no longer the Speaker
• 2:09:22
  Speaker 1: of the House Eastern California, he was able to raise
• 2:09:26
  Speaker 1: a lot of money for candidates in California who are
• 2:09:30
  Speaker 1: running for Congress that's no longer there. They barely won
• 2:09:34
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two. I think they all lose very
• 2:09:37
  Speaker 1: close elections, or may at least at least three or
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 1: four of them lose very close elections here in California
• 2:09:43
  Speaker 1: in a general election environment, and the right there that
• 2:09:47
  Speaker 1: erases the Republican majority, And then all that has to
• 2:09:50
  Speaker 1: happen as Democrats pick off a few in New York
• 2:09:53
  Speaker 1: that they lost in twenty twenty two, maybe a couple
• 2:09:56
  Speaker 1: in Florida that they lost in twenty twenty two, and
• 2:09:58
  Speaker 1: so I think overall Democrats will control the House were
• 2:10:02
  Speaker 1: represented as barely by about five to ten seats in
• 2:10:06
  Speaker 1: the Senate. My prediction is that Republicans will hold fifty
• 2:10:11
  Speaker 1: one seats, which is not a great scenario.
• 2:10:15
  Speaker 2: It is not a great scenario at all, because even
• 2:10:19
  Speaker 2: if it's.
• 2:10:19
  Speaker 1: Fifty one, which assumes that Republicans beat Tester in Montana,
• 2:10:24
  Speaker 1: which the polling indicates that they will, and I'm very,
• 2:10:28
  Speaker 1: very hopeful that that's what happens and that there are
• 2:10:30
  Speaker 1: no upsets, although there I think we're going to see
• 2:10:34
  Speaker 1: some early consternation about Ted Cruz in Texas. We might
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 1: even see some consternation in Nebraska, where there's an independent
• 2:10:43
  Speaker 1: candidate running against the Republican incumbent that has shown to
• 2:10:47
  Speaker 1: be somewhat close in the polling. I don't think there's
• 2:10:50
  Speaker 1: going to be any major upsets, and so I think
• 2:10:53
  Speaker 1: what will happen is Republicans will pick up a seat
• 2:10:55
  Speaker 1: in West Virginia, pick up a seat in Montana. They
• 2:11:00
  Speaker 1: if I pick up a seat in Ohio, that's the
• 2:11:02
  Speaker 1: only place where I think it's possible they get the
• 2:11:04
  Speaker 1: fifty two. So my prediction is basically fifty one and
• 2:11:07
  Speaker 1: a half. I think Republicans get fifty one and then
• 2:11:11
  Speaker 1: it's a toss up what happens between Brown and Moreno
• 2:11:14
  Speaker 1: in Ohio. I think that having jd Vance on the
• 2:11:17
  Speaker 1: ticket in Ohio gives Moreno a chance because I think
• 2:11:21
  Speaker 1: Republican turnout will be very, very high, and obviously Ohio
• 2:11:25
  Speaker 1: is much more of a red state than it used
• 2:11:28
  Speaker 1: to be. Fifty two would be way way more impactful,
• 2:11:33
  Speaker 1: especially if Trump lost than fifty one. The difference between
• 2:11:37
  Speaker 1: fifty one and fifty two is huge because if it's
• 2:11:40
  Speaker 1: fifty one and Harris's president, you know who controls the
• 2:11:44
  Speaker 1: US Senate, basically Murkowski and Collins, who are not really Republicans,
• 2:11:49
  Speaker 1: because they will be able.
• 2:11:50
  Speaker 2: To determine whatever happens.
• 2:11:52
  Speaker 1: They can flip to the Democratic side at any moment,
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 1: either one of them, because then Tim Waltz will be
• 2:11:59
  Speaker 1: the deciding in a tie in the US Senate. So
• 2:12:02
  Speaker 1: fifty one without Trump as president is almost worthless. Fifty
• 2:12:07
  Speaker 1: two changes the dynamic completely. So if you're in Ohio,
• 2:12:12
  Speaker 1: by any chance, vote for Moreno, even though he's not
• 2:12:15
  Speaker 1: a great caredidate. That would be really important, really important
• 2:12:20
  Speaker 1: to get to fifty two because now you have somewhat
• 2:12:22
  Speaker 1: of a firewall from Rakowski and Collins flipping over to
• 2:12:27
  Speaker 1: the Democratic side at any moment. But my prediction is
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 1: basically fifty one and a half. So those are my predictions. Obviously,
• 2:12:36
  Speaker 1: I will be one hundred percent accountable for any of
• 2:12:39
  Speaker 1: those that are wrong. I'm actually hoping I'm wrong on
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 1: a couple of those. In fact, all of them, I
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 1: hope I'm wrong to some degree, But we'll see. I
• 2:12:48
  Speaker 1: think this is the most difficult election to predict of
• 2:12:52
  Speaker 1: my lifetime because it's just so unprecedented, just so unprecedented.
• 2:12:57
  Speaker 1: I wanted to share a few more thoughts and a
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 1: couple other stories. We're getting a little bit late in
• 2:13:02
  Speaker 1: the podcast. I'm just going to throw them out very,
• 2:13:05
  Speaker 1: very quickly. I am certainly aware of Peanut the squirrel
• 2:13:08
  Speaker 1: controversy in New York, which is really a remarkable story
• 2:13:13
  Speaker 1: if you haven't heard about it yet. But this internet
• 2:13:15
  Speaker 1: sensation was euthanized by the government of New York and
• 2:13:19
  Speaker 1: a raid on this couple's home that has created enormous
• 2:13:24
  Speaker 1: amounts of outrage. Part of me was pleased that this
• 2:13:28
  Speaker 1: created outrage. You know, I'm not a big fan.
• 2:13:31
  Speaker 2: Of squirrels or raccoons.
• 2:13:33
  Speaker 1: A squirrel is basically a rat, with a bushy tail
• 2:13:37
  Speaker 1: and good pr But you know, I don't think the
• 2:13:41
  Speaker 1: squirrel should have been taken or euthanized, saying with the raccoon,
• 2:13:46
  Speaker 1: I was thrilled that we're seeing some backlash against government overreach.
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 1: But a lot of me he was thinking, where the
• 2:13:53
  Speaker 1: fuck was this during Coviden when kids were being basically
• 2:13:57
  Speaker 1: treated this way, not youthanized, but having their lives destroyed
• 2:14:01
  Speaker 1: over similar levels of insanity, and there was no backlash. Well,
• 2:14:06
  Speaker 1: this has created an enormous backlash, So much backlash did
• 2:14:10
  Speaker 1: I even wonder whether or not in New York this
• 2:14:13
  Speaker 1: might subconsciously save a couple of Republican congress people.
• 2:14:18
  Speaker 2: I really do think there could be in one.
• 2:14:20
  Speaker 1: Or two races, some influence of the peanut the squirrel controversy,
• 2:14:25
  Speaker 1: because it has created so much anti government sentiment, at
• 2:14:30
  Speaker 1: least in New York and frankly nationwide. Another story that
• 2:14:34
  Speaker 1: I want to reserve the right to get back into
• 2:14:38
  Speaker 1: as we as we learn more about the aftermath of it.
• 2:14:41
  Speaker 1: But you probably are aware that Jason Kelcey, the brother
• 2:14:43
  Speaker 1: of Travis Kelcey, at the Penn State football game over
• 2:14:47
  Speaker 1: the weekend, was involved in a very odd situation where
• 2:14:52
  Speaker 1: he was called the F word because his brother or
• 2:14:55
  Speaker 1: maybe his brother was called the F word because he's
• 2:14:57
  Speaker 1: dating obviously Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey's brother. Jason just
• 2:15:03
  Speaker 1: lost it. I mean, he went bananas. He took the
• 2:15:06
  Speaker 1: guy's phone, he smashed it to the ground, and then
• 2:15:10
  Speaker 1: three times he said to the guy on tape, who's
• 2:15:14
  Speaker 1: the F word?
• 2:15:14
  Speaker 2: Now? Who's the F word now? Meaning a gay slur? Now?
• 2:15:20
  Speaker 1: Look, I think, like everybody does that. The person that
• 2:15:24
  Speaker 1: was confronting Jason Kelsey, who I like, I like Jason
• 2:15:26
  Speaker 1: Kelcey a lot, was completely out of line, and I
• 2:15:30
  Speaker 1: give a lot of leeway to how Jason Kelcey would
• 2:15:34
  Speaker 1: be allowed to respond in that situation.
• 2:15:36
  Speaker 2: I get it.
• 2:15:37
  Speaker 1: I understand why people are knee jerk reaction seemingly defending
• 2:15:44
  Speaker 1: Jason kelce.
• 2:15:45
  Speaker 2: But I am stunned to the level that.
• 2:15:49
  Speaker 1: This has gone and how there has been almost no
• 2:15:53
  Speaker 1: liberal media backlash against Jason Kelcey for using the F
• 2:15:58
  Speaker 1: word in a very derogatory fact three times. Look again,
• 2:16:03
  Speaker 1: I get why Jason Kelsey was upset. I think how
• 2:16:06
  Speaker 1: he was treated was abominable, but he destroyed some valuable property,
• 2:16:13
  Speaker 1: broke the law, and then he used the F word
• 2:16:17
  Speaker 1: three times in a derogatory fashion. If I'm Justin Thomas
• 2:16:22
  Speaker 1: who lost endorsements, golfer Justin Thomas who lost endorsements, I
• 2:16:26
  Speaker 1: think even had to go to some you know, therapy
• 2:16:30
  Speaker 1: or thinking correction sessions or whatever the PC bullshit he
• 2:16:36
  Speaker 1: had to go through all because he muttered the F
• 2:16:39
  Speaker 1: wort under his breath after missing a pot. Wasn't even
• 2:16:42
  Speaker 1: intended to have anything to do with homosexuality. He's got
• 2:16:48
  Speaker 1: to be wondering what the fuck j I mean, because
• 2:16:51
  Speaker 1: what Jason Kelsey did was a thousand times worse in
• 2:16:55
  Speaker 1: that realm, based upon the woke rules for life that
• 2:16:58
  Speaker 1: liberals have created. Why is there no cancelation of Jason Kelcey. Well,
• 2:17:03
  Speaker 1: I think it's mostly because he has Taylor Swift protection.
• 2:17:07
  Speaker 1: That's how incredibly powerful Taylor Swift is by by you know,
• 2:17:13
  Speaker 1: by extension. He's part of the Taylor Swift gang and
• 2:17:18
  Speaker 1: he lives under her PC protection. It's just amazing to me.
• 2:17:23
  Speaker 1: I am stunned by how many people, even conservatives, rushed
• 2:17:28
  Speaker 1: to Jason Kelcey's defense. Again, I like Jason Kelcey and
• 2:17:31
  Speaker 1: how the liberal media has just decided, well, we're not
• 2:17:34
  Speaker 1: gonna this is one of those crimes better left unsolved.
• 2:17:37
  Speaker 1: We're not going to prosecute Kelsey for his F word
• 2:17:40
  Speaker 1: violation because that would get us into a whole Tailor
• 2:17:43
  Speaker 1: Swift thing, and you know, we're not going to do it,
• 2:17:47
  Speaker 1: you know, by the way, in a weird way, this
• 2:17:49
  Speaker 1: shows the power of the Tailor Swift endorsement of.
• 2:17:52
  Speaker 2: Kamala Harris in my view.
• 2:17:54
  Speaker 1: Speaking of sports related stories and confrontations and Pennsylvania, we
• 2:18:01
  Speaker 1: have the Philadelphia seventy six Ers star player Joel Imbad
• 2:18:07
  Speaker 1: who is involved in a controversy over not playing all
• 2:18:11
  Speaker 1: the time. This is a big issue in the NBA,
• 2:18:13
  Speaker 1: where players are making gazillions of dollars decide to take
• 2:18:17
  Speaker 1: nights off because it's just too arduous to play an
• 2:18:21
  Speaker 1: NBA basketball games, even when you're getting paid ab certain
• 2:18:24
  Speaker 1: amounts of money. He got involved in a confrontation with
• 2:18:27
  Speaker 1: a reporter, apparently shoved a reporter in a locker room.
• 2:18:32
  Speaker 1: Now we don't know all the details of this yet,
• 2:18:34
  Speaker 1: all because the reporter wrote about this issue of him
• 2:18:39
  Speaker 1: not playing in all these games and did so in
• 2:18:41
  Speaker 1: the context of what lesson he was providing to his
• 2:18:46
  Speaker 1: family members, and that in bed apparently took him exception
• 2:18:52
  Speaker 1: to the use of his family in this sports writer's column. Now,
• 2:18:57
  Speaker 1: I didn't think what was written was all that opriate
• 2:19:00
  Speaker 1: at all, but the reaction I thought was telling because
• 2:19:05
  Speaker 1: it goes to this larger issue that we've discussed before
• 2:19:08
  Speaker 1: in this podcast, about how the balance of power has
• 2:19:11
  Speaker 1: now completely shifted away from the media in general and
• 2:19:16
  Speaker 1: sports media figures in particular, and towards the celebrities, towards
• 2:19:20
  Speaker 1: the politicians, towards the sports stars, where now they're allowed,
• 2:19:25
  Speaker 1: apparently to get away with physical confrontation well because they're
• 2:19:30
  Speaker 1: offended over something that's not that big of a deal,
• 2:19:33
  Speaker 1: and then the past would never even have raised eyebrows,
• 2:19:37
  Speaker 1: and everyone's okay with it. I mean, everyone seems to
• 2:19:39
  Speaker 1: be okay with physically confunding the and shoving the reporter,
• 2:19:44
  Speaker 1: much like people are okay with what Jason Kelsey did.
• 2:19:48
  Speaker 2: I don't understand it, but.
• 2:19:49
  Speaker 1: I do think it's emblematic of this larger issue where
• 2:19:54
  Speaker 1: the media and the sports media in particular is completely screwed.
• 2:19:58
  Speaker 2: They're completely screwed.
• 2:19:59
  Speaker 1: They've lost so much power no one will take their
• 2:20:02
  Speaker 1: side on anything. We saw it with the Christine Brennan
• 2:20:05
  Speaker 1: situation where people some people did take her side, but
• 2:20:09
  Speaker 1: the WNBA players did not. We've got the NFL Players
• 2:20:13
  Speaker 1: Association trying to kick reporters out of locker rooms, and
• 2:20:18
  Speaker 1: this is going to only foster that narrative that's going
• 2:20:22
  Speaker 1: to be the reaction in all likelihood of the players.
• 2:20:26
  Speaker 1: Why do we need reporters to have any access to
• 2:20:29
  Speaker 1: us in the social media era? Why don't we just
• 2:20:33
  Speaker 1: have a pr person stick a microphone in our face,
• 2:20:36
  Speaker 1: put that out on.
• 2:20:37
  Speaker 2: Social media and the media can use that.
• 2:20:40
  Speaker 1: I really think that's where we're heading in this And
• 2:20:42
  Speaker 1: this is another example of that slippery slope where the
• 2:20:46
  Speaker 1: media has lost so much power when even when they're
• 2:20:49
  Speaker 1: in the right and by all accounts and I don't
• 2:20:52
  Speaker 1: have all the details, yet it appears as if the
• 2:20:54
  Speaker 1: player was totally wrong, it might even have committed some
• 2:20:57
  Speaker 1: sort of a crime. The media has no standing because
• 2:21:02
  Speaker 1: no one trusts the media, No one cares about the
• 2:21:05
  Speaker 1: issue of journalism and dangerous precedents and slippery slopes. Everyone
• 2:21:11
  Speaker 1: acides with the celebrity, and I don't think it's good
• 2:21:15
  Speaker 1: for journalism, regardless of who you might think be who
• 2:21:18
  Speaker 1: is right or wrong in that particular situation. So that'll
• 2:21:22
  Speaker 1: do it for this episode of the podcast. Obviously looking
• 2:21:25
  Speaker 1: forward to the next episode, where we'll have hopefully most
• 2:21:29
  Speaker 1: of not all, of the returns from the election. I
• 2:21:31
  Speaker 1: don't anticipate we'll have all the returns, but we'll have
• 2:21:34
  Speaker 1: as many returns as we possibly can when we put
• 2:21:37
  Speaker 1: that out on very early Thursday morning.
• 2:21:40
  Speaker 2: But until then, have a good election night. It's going
• 2:21:44
  Speaker 2: to be a doozy folks, and.
• 2:21:46
  Speaker 1: We'll have all the analysis and reaction for you in
• 2:21:48
  Speaker 1: the next episode. Until then, this has been episode number
• 2:21:51
  Speaker 1: two hundred and four, The Death of Journalism Podcast. Thanks
• 2:21:53
  Speaker 1: so much for listening, thanks for being a subscriber. Until then,
• 2:21:57
  Speaker 1: so long.
• 2:21:58
  Speaker 2: I'm John Zigler s