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Apr 21 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260421 Todd Gleason: From the land grant university in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It's the 21st day of April 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. It's our spring fund drive. Dial in your support for the ag programming that comes to you from Illinois Public Media right now at 217-244-9455 or go online to willgive.org and make that financial pledge. I like the $120 level, 240, 320, 640. More, less, it matters not. But thank you for making that pledge. And make sure that you tell the person on the other end of the phone line at 217-244-9455, 217-Big-Will, or at willgive.org in the comments section that you are pledging in support of agriculture. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets in this half hour with Naomi Bohm. Dave Chatterton will be here to discuss the agricultural energies and we'll take a look at the weather forecast with Don Day. Along the way, we'll talk about the Logan County board meeting that's coming up tomorrow evening that will deal with the data center citing outside of Latham. You'll want to stay with us for that right here on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. Todd Gleason: May corn for the day settled at $4.53 and three-quarters, a penny and three-quarters higher. July at $4.62, up one and three-quarters. And December corn at $4.81 and three-quarters, two and a quarter higher. July beans up eight and a half cents at $11.90 and a quarter. A November contract at $11.66 and a half, up eight and three-quarters of a cent. 01:40 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm Todd Gleason: Naomi Bohm from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hey Naomi, thank you so much for being with us. And thank you too for participating in public media, both in Market to Market, which airs on Channel 12 here locally and around the nation on many public television stations, along with the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. We really appreciate it and all the service that you give to the farmers who have been watching and listening to those programs for decades sometimes. Naomi Bohm: Yeah, absolutely. Such an important news outlet for farmers and so we're thankful for public media and and the support that the viewers and the radio listeners provide to public media and closing market report. So thank you for all of your support through the years as well. Todd Gleason: Indeed. If you'd like to provide some support financially, you can do that easily enough at 217-244-9455. That's 217-Big-Will or online at willgive.org. There is an awful lot that's happening in the marketplace this week. Much of it, Naomi, surrounds the next, I don't know, 24 to 48 hours in the Middle East. I suppose you must be watching that very, very closely at this time. Naomi Bohm: Yeah, absolutely. And what's interesting and also frustrating is that as it comes over the newswire, there still is not any clear cut direction on if there's going to be any meeting that takes place between the US and Iran in Pakistan, or if there's going to be any resolution to the conflict. And so we sit on pins and needles waiting for fresh news. And we saw the crude oil market today put a little bit of war premium back into the marketplace with prices gaining two to $3 and traders are watching again the Middle East. And I think from the standpoint of whatever transpires in the Middle East, probably then spills over not only to crude oil but the grain markets. Because corn and soybean for old crop futures have just been trading in a very cautious sideways pattern for weeks and we're waiting for fresh news. And the short-term fresh news to get us out of these trading ranges absolutely hinges around the Middle East right now. Todd Gleason: What are you watching in the charts and what makes you nervous and or happy about them? Naomi Bohm: Yeah, so when you look at like July corn futures, it's been an actually very slow uptrend for two weeks of about a dime. But where we got today for a high on July corn was near the $4.63 half mark. And there's two moving averages that come together there, the 21 day and the 40 day moving average. So that for right now is short-term resistance. But a close above 4.65 in my opinion would allow the market to have an easy 10 cent push higher towards 4.75. But if we don't get any fresh news, the market could very easily meander back down to 4.55. And on July soybeans, the trading range resistance for that July contract comes right near today's high near the $11.95 area. Support is down near the $11.70 area. So we're watching that trading range. And for soybeans, if there's some friendly news or if the war gets bad, that would make crude oil prices rally, what you could see then would be again the grains following higher and the July beans could be poised to retest the March highs, but again that depends on the war and the war news. So keep an eye on those trading ranges, keep an eye on the technicals for the very, very short term, and then we'll get back to weather watching and planting progress right after that. Todd Gleason: Anything in the new crop that we should be aware of? Naomi Bohm: Well, on November beans, they actually were able to push through some resistance, getting as high on the November beans today as $11.70. And the high from March 12th was $11.74 and a quarter. So we're back to potentially a double top there, which might mean hey, this is a really good place to be making some cash sales. Or again, if there's some friendly news that can follow through on this, the swing objective on the November beans points up towards the $12 handle. So that's something to keep in mind as well, maybe from the standpoint of having some target cash sale orders in place. And then on December corn, similar to July corn, where it has been trending slowly higher in about a 10 cent range, but it really needs to be able to close above 4.85 on the December board before it would be able to go back and retest the $5 area. So it could be a very volatile week. But when you actually look at the fundamentals for grain, remember it's not in and of themselves, that overly friendly. The planting pace is on target. We've got Argentina today that came out and the USDA attache from Argentina said that they think that the corn supplies in Argentina are bigger. So they're agreeing with what some of the private forecasters had said. They put the Argentina crop at 61 million metric tons, well above the USDA's last number of 52 million metric tons. So we might see that on the May 12th report. That adds to global supply. But now there's rumblings that it's getting drier on the second crop corn in Brazil. So lots of moving parts to monitor. Ultimately though, just be focusing on those cash sales because the bottom line, it still boils down to a major dramatic weather event in the United States this summer or something dramatic happening with the war in the Middle East to justify a significant price rally from here. And I would just be thinking about those cash sales and recognizing the value that we're at when we're only, you know, 15, 20 cents off the highs in Dec corn and November beans are right back near the March high, so there's good value here. Todd Gleason: One last thing, on acreage switches if any. I was making note that in the new crop, December, November, the soybean corn ratio is at 2.4. That's pretty close to normal. Do you think there will be much switching at all? Naomi Bohm: Well, that is still the question that's out there. I'm glad you brought that ratio up. That it is getting back to a little bit more normal because I think that shows how the December corn prices worked a little bit higher here recently. And the question is still regarding the higher input costs and the higher fertilizer costs for those who hadn't had a chance to book things early. Are those folks going to be doing any last-minute switching? So a lot of questions, no answers, and the market is very much trying to figure out where those acres will be. Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it. Naomi Bohm: Thank you. Todd Gleason: That's Naomi Bohm. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. 08:40 WILLAg News Update | Gummies and Data Centers Todd Gleason: In today's agricultural news, just two stories. First, there is a move in Washington trying to ban industrial hemp. That's a crop which has only been re-legalized for a few years. Mike Davis reports. Mike Davis: Senator Rand Paul says he's working with Senator Amy Klobuchar on a bill that lets states set their own hemp rules. No one in Washington discussed the hemp issue, there was no investigation, no hearings. When Kentucky passed it, I think they studied it for six months. They decided that one of the key things is they wanted to keep it out of the hands of children. So they regulated the age. They wanted to have punishment for stores that would sell it to underage minors. So they took care of that. And the Kentucky legislature did it in a thoughtful manner. And I think that we ought to let that become the law and not have people distanced from the problem that didn't really ever study the issue in Washington make the final conclusion. Paul says hemp is a successful cash crop in his state of Kentucky. It's difficult for those in the hemp business right now because it's a crop, it has to be planted. And if it's going to be made illegal in November, farmers are wondering whether they should plant it this year. And they probably already had to make this decision. And I lament that government's, you know, trying to destroy this industry now, but I'm doing everything I can and working across the aisle with a Democrat senator to try to say that if your state has decided to regulate hemp, then the state law would supersede the federal law. Some are concerned about a loophole from the 2018 farm bill that allowed the sale of intoxicating lab-converted cannabinoids like Delta-8 THC and THCA. I'm Mike Davis. Todd Gleason: You may be familiar with Delta-8, it is widely available in gummies. Our second story has to do with data centers. The proposed data center near Latham, Illinois, outside of Decatur in Logan County will be on the board's docket there again tomorrow evening. Last night about 65 protesters gathered on the courthouse grounds in Lincoln to protest its citing. Rachel Stechman is one of the organizers and founder of Logan County Indivisible. She's hopeful the protest will cause people to take a stand at the Wednesday evening meeting but also practical about the chances. Rachel Stechman: Honestly, I hope that we do, but to be perfectly frank, I have no idea how to guess which way it will go. Todd Gleason: The Logan County board will meet at 6 p.m. Wednesday in the courthouse and expects to hear from the company wanting to build the data center near Latham. And that's a look at today's agricultural news. 11:33 Agricultural Energies with Dave Chatterton Todd Gleason: Let's take a look at the agricultural energies for the day. Dave Chatterton now joins us from Strategic Farm Marketing in Champaign. Hello Dave, thanks for being with us. And ahead of schedule, thank you for joining us for our commodity week program, which we'll record Thursday afternoon. Dave Chatterton: Yeah Todd, looking forward to it for sure. Lots to talk about as always, whether it's fuel markets, whether it's energy markets or the two that tie the one that ties the two together being the fertilizer markets. So where do you want to start? Todd Gleason: Well, today, I don't know, there is an awful lot today to talk about as it's related to the agricultural energies. What's the top thing on your list? Dave Chatterton: I think the top line item that our markets are watching, so whether it's agriculture markets, whether it's the oil and energy markets or whether it really it's the macro markets in general. So the equity markets in general, financial markets is, are these potential for additional negotiations between the US and Iran that are supposedly going to start either tonight or tomorrow in Pakistan. And the US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance have departed, they're on route or on site. The Iranian negotiators, there's some discrepancy there of whether they're going to show up and when they're going to show up and there's no confirmation that they will. So we're left in a little bit of a limbo or a wait and see situation. And if you look at just kind of step back and look at market action in general and what's happening with the equities today, what's happening with crude oil prices and refined fuel prices and some of the, you know, the other markets, the VIX, the bond markets, the dollar and currencies etc, it looks like the market is placing pretty good odds here that we are going to get some kind of an at least an agreement on a ceasefire. I don't know that anyone's expecting an all out, you know, permanent peace stand down type of an agreement, but the market feels pretty comfortable that we're going to at least get an extension of the ceasefire. Now that doesn't restart oil flow, doesn't do the things that we really need to do. And unfortunately, Todd, we're kind of left in a a system where we have two very opposite ends of the spectrum depending on what may happen. President Trump has been pretty clear or at least, you know, vocal about that he will he does not favor extending, you know, any kind of deadline tonight and that, you know, that a deal needs to be done. So we'll have to see how that does. One end of the spectrum of course is that we go back to all out war and maybe worse than what we had with infrastructure destruction and attacks. The other side is that hey we've got an agreement everybody you know has an off ramp to the conflict and maybe we can restart a little bit of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Todd Gleason: Given that, and we should say we are talking at 10:40 this morning, so things may have changed by the time this airs during the closing market report. What is it that producers should think of in a near, medium term and long-term perspective? For instance, the FarmDoc team is saying the price of nitrogen because of the damage that's already done is likely to stay high through the fall, for sure. But there are other inputs that come from that area, diesel for instance. And how should producers be thinking about these as it's related to managing that risk? Dave Chatterton: Yeah Todd, I think it's kind of a dual message. One is that we've got to kind of navigate just through the spring here and getting in the early part of the growing season in terms of what we need in terms of whether it's fuel, whether it's additional nitrogen, you know, fertilizer, whatever it may be and kind of where we go. I think the second element is that, you know, like it or not, probably going to have a longer tail to this war, particularly in the fertilizer segment than than some of the others in terms of rebuilding infrastructure, re-establishing supply and kind of taking that risk premium out of the market. So I think that what that tells me as a producer and I think what it tells producers in general is that you're going to have to be more proactive in terms of how you're pricing and contracting ahead of the market and kind of avoiding what can be these situations. It's I think history would tell us that even if let's say peace is declared and you know between Iran and the US next week that we're going to have some fits and starts in that. Iran has a historical, you know, precedent of of kind of testing agreements or reneging on agreements. And so we're going to have some disruptions probably likely down the road even when things hopefully do improve here. So I think the proactive measure for right now, you know, fuel prices according to the, you know, the FarmDoc and the the the ARM data, you know, farm diesel right now about 4.58. That's up from about 3.25 a year ago. So we're running I think it's a good idea to have some working inventory in terms of fuel Todd, but not necessarily fill your tanks or start contracting for fall. Same thing on I think on the fertilizers here, not necessarily, you know, booking for fall or or late summer at these particular prices. But I think you have to have your your idea set that if we get a a decent decline here, a decent correction, and especially with the premium in the front of the market versus the discount in the back, probably the the quicker that you can get that booked and and kind of wrapped up the better shape we may be in come fall and looking into next spring and beyond. Todd Gleason: How much of an issue is this today for the producers you're talking with? And how much of an issue do they say it will be for them when they get to the fall to book in supplies for harvest and or next year's crop? Dave Chatterton: Yeah, I think there's a lot of concern and anxiety out there. And unfortunately, that's just another piece of concern or anxiety regarding, you know, farm margins in general or production margins, whether it's, you know, the cost of seed or labor or fuel commodities, prices or, you know, crop insurance values, whatever it may be. It all kind of adds up. But I I think, you know, it's a price issue here for this spring. The products are available. It's just that we've got a price knock on. If you look at, you know, what could happen in the fall, what could happen next spring, I I think, you know, one thing to realize is that we're in a more competitive environment here against South America if these shortages and price hikes become become a problem. We import far less of our needs than they do in let's say in Brazil. So we do gain a competitive advantage. But having said that, you know, it doesn't mean we get margin improvement here in terms of at the farm level. So guys are are concerned. Luckily, you know, according to the data that we've seen, 70, 72, 75 percent of producers covered a good portion of their needs here coming into the spring in the Midwest. So hey, we've got at least that, you know, amount of cushion ahead of us. We've not seen any, you know, force majeure or anybody saying, hey, we're not going to deliver on contract. But to get that piece that's uncovered is really where we're at. There's been talk of acreage switching Todd and I'm sure you've covered that on the show. Whether there certainly going to be an element in that but we haven't seen a lot of that in our part of the the corn belt just yet. And I don't really expect to assuming that we get a a somewhat normal weather profile. So really I think what we're looking at is planning for the fall and then particularly, you know, as that leads into next spring. And unfortunately we have a lot of things that can change on the the headlines and the and the situation around the Middle East between now and then. So a little bit of this is still to be, you know, still to be taken on the fly I guess. Todd Gleason: This has focused some attention on biofuels, ethanol, soy based diesel, those sorts of things. Is the outlook good for both of those? Dave Chatterton: Yeah, I mean it's it's really, you know, blending margins have been very spicy if you will have been very good here simply because of the running price of gasoline and diesel fuel in particular. And so, you know, plant profitability margins here, whether it's ethanol or whether it's biofuels on the on the diesel side remain really in good shape here. They're they're well off kind of the recent highs here, very similar to what we see in the moves for let's say crude oil or or diesel fuel where it went up and, you know, made a spike high and have rotated back lower, but they still remain, you know, historically pretty attractive here. These plants are going to run at the at full capacity whenever they can here and, you know, continue to do that. We do have a little bit of a maintenance season that we normally do here in mid-April to the to early May. Once we get that out of the way, I would expect that there's there's viable export demand out there for those products because blending margins and there's there's good domestic demand here particularly with the the biodiesel and the RFS, you know, changes that we've talked about here. So, you know, attractive margins here at the moment. That can change as we, you know, as we know, but things look pretty good here at the moment. Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. And we'll talk to you Thursday. Dave Chatterton: Yep, thank you Todd. Todd Gleason: Dave Chatterton is with Strategic Farm Marketing in Champaign, Illinois. And we'll join us for our commodity week program, recorded Thursday, up online Thursday evening by 6 p.m. You're listening to the closing market report on this Tuesday afternoon. Our theme music is written, performed, produced and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. Do visit our website at willag.org. w-i-l-l-a-g dot o-r-g. Or there you should hit the donate now button or you can call this number 217-244-9455 and make your pledge of support to the agricultural programming from right here at IPM. I kind of like the $120 level, but you know what, 240 works, so does 320, 640. Those are all numbers you should recognize. However, no matter what you give, do make sure that you tell the person on the end of the line at 217-244-9455, that's 217-Big-Will, or in the comments section at willgive.org, willgive.org, that you are making your pledge in support of agriculture. And thank you. 21:18 Ag Weather with Don Day Todd Gleason: Now here's Don Day from Day Weather. He has an update of the forecast. Don Day: As a deepening storm over south-central Canada takes shape late this week and into the weekend, it's going to intensify and pull in some very cool air. First into the northern plains and northern Rockies here late in the week, then a cold front will then march across the nation's midsection, moving into the Corn Belt and Midwest, leading to a pretty big drop in temperature after a pretty big warm-up ahead of it. This is going to lead to some strong to severe thunderstorm activity here at the end of this week and some severe weather, then much colder temperatures will overspread the nation's midsection. Colder air is going to go all the way down into the southern plains. But we will see some needed precipitation out of this. We're going to see the eastern side of the Dakotas, a good portion of Nebraska pick up some badly needed precipitation. And we're going to see some heavier moisture across the northwest Corn Belt and then spreading across parts of the Delta. Places like Arkansas down into Louisiana and parts of the South will finally get some much-needed rainfall. This is going to instigate some cooler than average temperatures for several days across the Midwest. So do be prepared for that change in temperature as the back-and-forth of spring continues.