Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | USDA Corn Stocks Shock And Harvest Pressure

Transcript

Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | USDA Corn Stocks Shock And Harvest Pressure · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_02: Welcome back, everybody.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_02: Tommy Grassafi, AgBill Media, AgBill Trading.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_02: You're listening to Wisemeyer's Perspectives.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_02: Well, it's fall and it's football season and it's stock shock with the USDA.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: We have all types of news, whether it be markets trading in the red or the ability to use red diesel.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_02: We're going to have it all today on the show.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_02: Before we get started, I still challenge you all to make sure you're signed up for Mr.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_02: Jim's List.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_02: I believe most of you are on it.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_02: But if by chance you're not on Jim's list, go ahead and contact us at AgBull.com.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_02: Go to the website and we'll make sure you're on there.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_02: And with that, we're going to bring in the star of the show.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_02: We're going to have a nice bunch of maps and graphs, try to break it all down and make common sense out of a crazy world.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_02: All right, everybody, it's been a crazy week.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_02: This is Tommy Gristaffi with the one and only Jim.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_02: Here he comes, live on stage.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_02: Next contestant right there.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_02: Here we go.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_02: Here we go.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_02: Today's show is going to be crazier in the concert.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_02: I had the privilege to a friend of mine gave me a Metallica ticket an opening night at the Spear in Las Vegas.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_02: Oh wow.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_02: And my ears are probably still ringing.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_02: But uh no.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: Have you been to the sphere before?
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_02: No, I'd never been to Metallica.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_02: Did you like it?
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, like it.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_02: It was amazing.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_02: Just amazing.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_02: Just such a good time with our friends over at Nesvik asked me to go.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_02: And so uh when you get asked to do something like that, you do that.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_02: I'll tell you what, if you think the American economy is collapsing, uh it was hard to walk down the street in Las Vegas.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_02: So if if the world's really ending, it wasn't the last few days.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_02: You like to start the shows now with what we're going to talk about.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_02: I'll give you the stage.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we're going to talk as we always do the markets, and it was an ugly week, a lot of red on the screen.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: Next one, we're going to get into the rains exit the wet corn belt areas, and that's added some downward pressure to corn and soybeans as well because the harvest pressure.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: Then we're going to cuss and discuss that corn stock shock from USDA that we got.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Reasons why, maybe implications for the future, Tommy.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: And then diesel.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: You other than the corn stocks report, it's been diesel, diesel, diesel.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to have an update because we had some major news this past week, both internationally in Europe, and the White House is preparing an executive order that we're going to hear about this week.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: Then we're going to get an update on China trade, whatever update there is.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: And then we had a major jobs report.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: Now that was a not so good jobs report from the numbers perspective, but the equity markets liked it, and we'll tell you why.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Some foreign policy updates, ARC PLC payments now can be made.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: So we should get an announcement soon from USDA.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: Lots of emails I get from farmers on whether or not we're going to get a top-up payment for the SDRP stage two.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: The answer yes.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: And then we're going to have a little snapshot on Farm Bill 2.0.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: Where are we at in that process now that both the Senate and the House are gone until after the November 3rd elections?
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: Mexico feeder cattle crossings.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: We had some rain delays uh impacting the number of cattle moving across at least the one day this week.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: Global food prices, we got a report showing they hit four-year highs.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: That was significant.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: The coming week ahead, we're going to detail what's going to happen every day of the week.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not going to give that up now.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: And then we're going to end it as we usually do with optimism.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: 10 reasons for optimism.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: Not four, not eight, but 10.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_02: 10.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_02: Bring in the heat.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_02: I have to tell you, Jim, to my right, I actually have a football game on.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_02: Auburn, Tennessee.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_02: The scores 14-17.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_02: Of the college teams, is there any team that you like to watch?
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: Only at the end.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: Not really.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: I like Arkansas, Alabama.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: I like Southern teams, to tell you the truth.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: Well, all the Georgia, Alabama, I love LSU, Texas AM.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: I just I'm a Southerner at heart, I guess.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_02: Game Day was out in Iowa, and all the Iowa fans thought they had a chance to be in Ohio beaten Ohio State, and that didn't work.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_02: The Ohio State.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_02: The Ohio State.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_02: They love themselves.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_02: Just ask them.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_02: Well, we didn't have love in the markets this week, my friend.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: No, we did not.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go full screen, are we?
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_02: Full screen, Captain.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: All right, all right.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: Look at it.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Look at the there's very few green on your screen.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: The only green was soybean oil up 78 cents points for the week.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: And lean hogs, the the debt cat bounce and hogs up a buck 10.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: Let's hope that continues.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Down if it does.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: But look at corn down 30 and a half cents.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: That was my chart of the week, Tommy.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: We've uh this is our second week of the Ag Bull Dashboard.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: And at the end of it, I've got a big December corn chart and the reasons why.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans down a little over 40 cents.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: Look at meal down.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: So it's just uh uh wheat was down.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: It was just an ugly week.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: Look at cotton, down 112 points.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: And let's go to the percentage basis, and you can just see that it jumps out.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: Meal was down a little over six percent, corn almost six percent.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's a big week for corn when you're down about six percent, four and a half percent cotton, and you can see hogs were up 1.6 percent, and soy oil was up a little over one percent.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: So it was just one of those weeks, uh, transition weeks to uh to uh harvest and that stock uh shock report.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: And we're gonna get into this one now on the weather, because that was a big contributor to the downturn in cash prices, uh, widening bases, etc.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: Because as the map shows, little or no precipitation, Tommy, across most of the major corn belt areas for the next 10 days and maybe 15 days.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: Dryness potential is extending at least through the 15-day period.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: So that 10 to 15 days, you can get a lot of harvest done, especially at the back end of that uh timeframe, because we've got some pretty wet soil still in corn country and bean country.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: So it may take a few days of drying, Tommy.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: But look at the map, it shows you the little or no rain next 10 days and dryness may run through 15 days.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: Look at that north, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, all the way through.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: Hold on, yeah.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, let me see here.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: That shows you right there vividness, right in the heart right here, Jim.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: Right in the heart of the country.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Let's see.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: I'm looking at two.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: Yep, that's it.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: That's it.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: And so, and you've got the widespread warmth as well, and that's expected with the dry pattern.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: So this is more like uh September weather, August, September weather rather than October weather.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: No frost, no frost.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: You don't want an early frost now.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: So, anyway, that that's the weather.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: So a combination of the weather and our next topic, Tommy, the corn stock shock from USDA.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: And we've got some bar charts.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I'm gonna blow this up so everyone could see it, Jim.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and then obviously for our folks listening to the podcast, Jim will walk you through the code.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna, yeah.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna because the corn stock if the corn stocks topped every trade estimate.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: That means it was above the top end of every pre-report estimate.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now we had some catcalling of the reports, and I know a few analysts always get smart after they see the numbers rather than before, to be honest with you.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: But there is some common sense to some of the negatives that I've heard.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: Some people think the stocks report caught southern corn being harvested, Tommy, in August and early September.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: They call it Delta.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: Delta, uh, and that that was loaded to the Gulf, and this got into old crop corn.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: You know, so you had more than a few million tons of corn in August and then September, and uh that was hedged in in the in the in the marketplace.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Now, a lot of the boats got loaded with that corn.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if true, the next two grain stocks reports could have adjustments the other way.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, that would be interesting.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna see, yeah, it could it could see rather big increases in corn feed and residual.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: You gotta remember it's just not feed, it's feed and residual.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: Some people call it feed and fudge.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_02: That's what I was just gonna say.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_02: Chip Florey calls it the fudge now.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: Feed and fudge.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_02: Why do people argue about feed and residual?
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_02: Is that where where the USDA has room to adjust it?
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: Well, because it's a guesstimate, really.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: And the survey now, the survey, uh, you know, some people call the southern elevators lazy in their reporting.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: I totally disagree with that because USDA, I put out in our special on AgBull.com the exact survey methodology and the survey form that elevators get.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if they don't follow it, yeah.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: Now, there could be some more transparency that that uh NAS maybe should give us as far as how does NAS react to these charges that they counted new crop in old crop, Tommy.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: That that that might be something for NAS to to do.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I've been covering agriculture for 50 years, and every year there's disagreement on the grain stocks report, I'll tell you.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_02: For 50 years?
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: It's hard to, yeah, it it's it's hard to peg it, you know.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: And I understand the criticism, but it's it's it's USDAs.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: It used to be USDA's one of their weakest surveys.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: You always have intransit problems, but this isn't the first time NAS has encountered that.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: So I question some of the cat calling on this report, but I'm gonna hold those same analysts to the fire on the next two grain stocks reports because there maybe we should have two numbers at the end of the year, Tommy.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: Next year.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: We should have one if USDA is gonna count new crop in the stocks or not.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_00: So then we'll see maybe the split in between.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's something I've got as a what I call my tickle file for next year at this time.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: So so here's the bottom line on that.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's the number USDA gave.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: Get over it.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: We got to go on from there, which makes this Friday's report the more the more important report now, crop production and WASD.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: And we'll get to that later.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: But but again, you saw the numbers.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: The soybean stocks were about in line because we have data checks on soybeans.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: We have exports, we have crush and things like that.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: But it's it's hard to peg the the total feed, corn feed that's been utilized, the the the rations and things like that.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's almost an impossible task, but yet we have the survey.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_00: We have the survey.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_02: Very good.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_02: Diesel, it's been a hot subject.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_02: We're covering it every week.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_02: There's states doing different things trying to.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_02: I know the state of North Dakota said, you know what, put red diesel in, and who knows?
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe farmers were already doing that.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_02: I I could see I could give them several reasons why they were.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_02: And uh hoping they wouldn't get pulled over, right?
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: But well, first of all, we got finally some good.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: The negative news was China and Russia pulled back their diesel exports.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: That was negative news about in the middle of the week.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: But now Friday, we got word initially from President Trump on True Social and then confirmation from the European Union that the G7 countries pledged up to 100 million bushels, barrels, barrels, 100 million barrels of crude and petroleum products with substantial diesel deliveries expected within 20 days.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: Now, some of the reports were 50 million barrels of uh crude and 50 million barrels of diesel.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: Now, U.S.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_00: diesel futures closed 3% lower at$450 a gallon Friday.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: European diesel fell more than 8% before pairing the losses, Tommy.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: Trump said the U.S.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: would not impose a diesel export ban, easing concerns over disrupted trade.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_00: But let me put some perspective on that.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: I heard him on Fox, uh, somebody asked him the question is a diesel export ban still on the table?
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: And Trump said, heard it with my own ears, he said it was never on the table.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: Excuse me.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, President Trump himself pushed a diesel uh export ban for a few weeks, if you recall.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't think he can say it was never on the table, maybe as a live option, because his top officials just told him why he shouldn't do it.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: So and the G the reason why they won't do it now is the group of seven nations agreed not to have a diesel export ban.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's why it's off the table, to be truthful.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: What's the farm impact in all this?
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: Lower wholesale prices could reduce harvest and hauling costs, won't help the Delta, Tommy.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: They're already well on the way, but it could help the Midwest depending on timing.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: But uh, you know, local savings at the farm are going to depend on deliveries, refinery, and shipping constraints still persist.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: Now, to add to this story, the White House is preparing an executive order on diesel.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: And Secretary uh Brooke Rollins has said over the last few weeks there's good news coming.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: And and she also said it Friday.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Reuters reported a diesel relief order could arrive this week, potentially expanding dyed diesel use and changing fuel taxes.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the dyed diesel is on the farm, Tommy.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: They would allow it for on-road use and changing some fuel taxes.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: Now that gets a little murky.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: I I put out a story today on what Texas is doing on their taxes and other avenues, and it's complicated, let me tell you.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: But Congress to change the federal tax, Congress has to go along.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe they can have a holiday on tax.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not quite sure, but we got to be careful what they say and do on fuel taxes.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: Permission to use dye diesel on highway does not automatically eliminate the highway fuel taxes.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: That's important to point out.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: Farmers already receive exemptions for qualifying off-road use.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: The new savings obviously would primarily benefit eligible hauling operations if the highway taxes are removed or reduced.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: So what's the bottom line?
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: A genuine tax exemption could lower eligible users' cost, but it wouldn't increase diesel supplies.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_02: You can't make any more of this stuff, right, Jim?
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: No, no.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_00: Eligibility, legal authority, and implementation remain unsettled.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going some steps in the right direction, Tommy.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: And you're seeing that in the marketplace as the price goes down.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: And what Europe does does make more supply of existing supply, I should say, available here because they won't have to import as much.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: There's your significance of that EU.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_00: 50 million barrels of diesel is a lot.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: So finally, some good news on diesel.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_00: Let's hope it continues.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, absolutely.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_02: All right, moving along.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, not a week goes by, Jim, that we don't talk about China.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_02: Number five, China trade updates.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I said on Agri-Talk, Tommy, and I think it's the best line, that we may know less this week than we did the week before on the US-China trade updates.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: The reason we've had very little new information except one, and was potentially a negative.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: U.S.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: Trade Representative Jamison Greer said in Milwaukee at a trade conference that there's no tariff cut timeline.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: Now, what did he mean by that?
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_00: Both the U.S.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: and and China have agreed to reduce the tariffs on selected commodities, not soybeans, the 10% uh fentanyl tariff increase.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: They would cut that.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: However, it's going to take a while, maybe longer than anyone expects, for both China and the United States to get the necessary legal work done, apparently, in order to have a synchronized announcement, because both China and the United States will announce when they're ready to cut at the same time.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now, now that's important, Tommy, relative to the$17 billion that China apparently has agreed to purchase of non non-soybean products for 26, 27, and 28.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: 2026 is prorated.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: We still don't know what that means for 2026.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_00: How much of that 17 billion?
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: Is it 10 billion?
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_00: We don't know.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: Some people think they know, but they don't.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: We do know that Jamison Greer said of that prorated amount, China has purchased five billion dollars.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't specify what it was for.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_00: Now, uh in a way, China could still be purchasing these products because of the state traders, Kafko and Sino Grain, because they don't have to pay the tariff back to the state.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_00: They are state traders, Tommy.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_00: So it may not be as negative as I first thought it might be.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to have to watch continued trade reports, not just the export sales report, the monthly trade numbers, and we're going to get them this week, by the way.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_00: An update on international trade, and then two or three days later, USDA puts out a US agricultural trade update.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_00: But we don't still know what products China's going to buy out of that whole big list that they said would qualify for the eventual 10% tariff cut.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: And some of that includes wood products.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_00: And you know wood's not cheap.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: So that could add up the tab pretty quickly.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: But the significance is that if China buys any US corn, it's it's friendly to the marketplace because of the stocks to use ratio.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_00: We keep on saying that.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_00: USDA has little to no Chinese corn imports in their numbers.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_00: So they're going to follow it.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_00: They're going to follow any Chinese corn imports.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why this is significant.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_00: The other thing that I'm beginning to uh read about, Tommy, uh, is especially Wall Street Journal had an exclusive on the four to five hour downtime that Xi Jinping, China's leader, had while he was at the White House to rest.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_00: Hmm.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_00: So does that mean health issues?
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: Don't know.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_00: Was it a time lag because he had uh flown 15 hours?
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_02: You know, possibly, yeah, that's not easy.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_00: So it may just be a function of that.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: But the Wall Street Journal had a big report on it.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_00: So it's something to watch because boy, if you had a shakeup in China's leadership, that throws a lot of things into the ointment.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm not predicting that now, but it's something to watch out for, and of course, we'll monitor.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's the China update, Tommy.
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, absolutely.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_00: All right, we're about to have we didn't say they have a holiday.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_02: Holiday, holiday golden week.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_02: You scared me.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_02: I thought you scared me.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_02: I jumped.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_02: Golden week.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_00: And it's gonna last through what the seventh.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_00: They come back the eighth.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_00: So the day before USDA's crop report, they're back.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_00: Frequently they purchase a day before USDA reports, by the way.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_00: That's not all the time, but they do have a pattern.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna see this week.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_00: I can't wait for Thursday.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be in uh Kansas City, but I'm gonna look that morning to see whether or not they purchased anything in the overnight reports, or it'll be rumored in during Wednesday and Thursday trade.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: Well, watch that.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_02: Watch that openight and uh text premium subscribers.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_02: Real real quick, folks, I just want to tell you about AgBO Premium,$25 a month,$250 annually.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_02: We have lots of content we put out that is not public.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_02: This is paid ag Intel from AgBool Media.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_02: And of course, my friend and business partner, Jim, is I think we're gonna flip the switch in a couple weeks on premium.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_02: We got things pretty set up, but uh we'll everybody on Jim's List.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_02: If you're not on Jim's list, and most of you are, but if you're not, you're watching a show, go to AgBool.com and say, I want to be on Jim's List.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_02: You will be mailed a coupon for a uh very affordable uh rate on the subscription base.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_02: And Jim, I want you to talk a minute.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_02: You've really, really upped your game.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_02: It probably messes you up a little bit when you travel because it's hard.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_02: You're in such a pattern of getting up early, working hard, putting out stories late at night.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_02: But you've really upped your game.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_02: Tell people what you're doing with your subscription service.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we have three basic components of it.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, one is this podcast, two is the daily updates, which is the blog, if you will, and that includes the now a daily weather briefing that we take some of the NASVEC uh morning comments and we purdy them up with I think better maps bias there, but I like the way I do maps now, and then special reports throughout the day, anywhere from four to six, depending on the the significance of the topics.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, you're right.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_00: When I travel, I'll be in San Francisco tomorrow, uh going to Napa to the crop insurance SIPA meeting, crop insurance agents, one of my best people or SIPA crowd.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: But that takes it out of you when you have to get up as early as I do, yeah, and and you're in California time.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_00: But that means I just can't party like I really want to out there with all the people.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_00: Then I go Wednesday and speak Thursday to American Fats and Oils Group, and I'm looking forward to that, trying to connect the dots, Tommy, as we say, win the business of agriculture.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_00: So that's what we're up to in the reports.
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_02: And all that'll be available.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_02: Your stuff will be available on Agble.
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_02: So when you go to AgBOL.com, there'll be a tab up top that says We Smire, and that's how you'll subscribe to that, folks.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_02: And uh, I'm sure we'll have a blended window of a few weeks where we're getting it out to everyone.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_02: But there'll be several reminders, and then one day what's going to happen, Jim, is people are gonna be like, Where the hell's the show?
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_02: Locked down, it's locked down.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_02: So for Agble Intel clients, they'll continue to get this podcast for Jim's clients, they'll continue to get to it.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_02: It's a blend.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_02: Like I but there is a very there is a group that follows you that wants nothing to do with what I do in the markets, like they don't want to know what a call spread costs.
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_02: The insurance people, the bankers, and stuff.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_02: There's so there's market people, DC people, some of a mishmash, and I know my clients personally love your stuff.
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_02: And how how could you not be involved in agriculture and not be getting up to date?
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_00: You've got the news or that's why we call it perspective.
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_00: We don't, you know, and I don't trade.
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_00: And and the reason why, Tommy, is I'm Lily White.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_00: I don't, I can't care whether they go up or down, I just can't.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a news person.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, it would it would affect how you type things.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_02: If you went in that USDA report, long corn, you would have a different set of your fingers cursed.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_00: Emotion would get those things right.
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_00: And I hear it amongst traders.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_00: I understand that.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_00: I understand that.
• 25:41
  SPEAKER_00: But anyway, and we also on your site, Tommy, once we go to Ag Bull, we'll have an archive that you'll be able to click.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's right there.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so we're gonna have some usability features, and we're gonna have maybe five, six the most important stories during the week that they'll have a fancy picture to it, and you can just click if you want to read it.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_00: And so we're gonna we're we're gonna professionalize the site.
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_00: So here we go.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_02: All right, let's let's go.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_02: I'm super excited.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_02: All right, we went through China.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_02: Let's get a jobs report.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_02: I'm gonna blow this up so everyone could see it.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_02: The print's a little smaller.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_00: The jobs report was negative for jobs, it showed 29,000 jobs in September.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_00: It was well below expectations of 90,000.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_00: And July and August payrolls were revised down a combined 60,000 jobs.
• 26:39
  SPEAKER_00: So unemployment, yeah, unemployment edged up to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent.
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_00: So it showed up weak jobs, but I want to stress one month report should never be seen as a barometer, okay, of anything.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_00: And but it was good for the stock market.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_00: Initially, we were up like 400 Dow and 300 uh NASDAQ.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_00: But the reason because uh it lowered the odds of the Fed changing the interest rate at the October 27th, 28th.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_00: They'll make the announcement on the 28th at the Federal Open Market Committee.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why, while it was not good for bragging by the White House, it was good for the equities market because of the interest rates.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_00: And even the White House had a spin on it.
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_00: I listened to Kevin Hassett on Fox, Tommy, and he concentrated as he should have on the significant pickup, I think was 20,000 jobs in the manufacturing and construction industry.
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_00: That tells you that Trump's uh billions of dollars in focus in the investment in the manufacturing industry is starting to pay off in jobs, and those are higher, higher paying jobs.
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_00: So that was something they should have pointed out.
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_00: So softer hiring strengthens the case for an October Fed pause on interest rates, although inflation remains a constraint, Tommy.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_00: So one should not still rule out a December rate increase, but we're gonna have more data come out between now and the December, early December FOMC meeting.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's bottom line on the jobs reports.
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_02: And also just a little, I listened to you and Chip and Mr.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_02: Newton, right?
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_02: Uh what's Mr.
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_02: Newton's first name?
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_02: John.
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_02: John Newton.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_02: When I was on the plane today, I always like to listen what you say on AgriTalk, and it gets us ready for this show.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_02: But the bond market may have interest rates may calm down for a little bit.
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_02: The 10-year yield exploded from 4.8 to 530.
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_02: Came down to about five to two.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_02: It might have calmed down.
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_02: And I heard you hint on the show that you know what, that might have been enough.
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_02: The job the market had a job to do every 2's, 5's, 10s, everything went up, meaning the interest rate went up, the bond went down, and it might have got done its job.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that's why the stock market rallied when the stock market saw the bond rates go down.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_02: They're like, Whew, we're catching a break here.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_00: And you're an old bond trader, you're a young bond trader.
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_00: And you you you you watch the bond market, you'll be smarter, let me tell you.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_00: And number two, uh, yeah, what I said, I think we've seen the the top of the yields for this calendar year.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_00: Let's hope we're right there.
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_00: The actual yields on it.
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_02: It's hurting the housing market real bad.
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_00: It is.
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_00: Uh uh 30-year mortgages were over seven percent on on that one.
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_00: And but it it limits the upside of the dollar now.
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_00: We've had a three-month rally in the dollar here, Tommy.
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_00: So, so it's not a negative for the ag commodities now.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_00: Uh if the dollar starts uh weakening, but you really have to have a six-month trend on a currency before you have it see any significance in the marketplace.
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_00: But it was an important report.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_00: We we have to just see if it's going to continue in the October jobs report.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_02: All right, and one quick note my uh friend Rick Santelli, uh a veteran of CNBC, retired Friday.
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, I I did not know that.
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I texted him.
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_02: I haven't texted Rick Santelli in eight years.
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_02: I said, Rick, congratulations.
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_02: And I didn't even know if it was his right cell phone anymore.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_02: And I just told him, thank you for all the times I've ever brought guests on the floor, and you walked them around, you talked them, you explained the futures pits versus the options pit.
• 30:35
  SPEAKER_02: I got the nicest text back.
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you so much, Tommy.
• 30:39
  SPEAKER_02: I hope you and your family are doing well.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_02: Stay in touch.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_02: And I hadn't talked to Rick in since the pits closed in 2015.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's impressive.
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_02: Wait, that's a long time ago, but I there was still a few pits open down there that I would go see him because the euro the euro dollar stayed open.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_02: So even though all the grain pits closed, there were still some electronic trading on the floor.
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_00: But the guy's a classic, and well, he's a communicator, and we're losing, we're starting to lose them.
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_00: Look at Maria Bartaroma, no longer on Fox.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_00: I really miss her on Fox business.
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, today just is not the same.
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_00: So I hope she comes out with a new approach so I can listen.
• 31:18
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, I think I fully expect her to.
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_02: I don't want to add a little color, and you're gonna be surprised.
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_02: We're gonna take it this way.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_02: But Rick Santelli went on a rant once saying we need to start a damn tea party, and they actually give him credit for the start of the mega movement.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_02: Do you remember that?
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_00: No, I do not.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_02: Oh yeah, it it rick Santelli.
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_02: I'll send you the video.
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_02: And folks, if you just Google Rick Santelli Tea Party, he went on a rant on national TV.
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_02: I remember the rant, though.
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_02: They give that rant credit for uh for starting what is the base of the MAGA movement.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_02: That's something different.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_02: Rick Santelli's Chicago Tea Party rant.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it it was it was crazy.
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_02: So so five years.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_02: I think he did it in 2019.
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_00: So quite I will look that up.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_00: Send me the video and I'll look it up.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_02: I'm sorry, I think it was in 2009.
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_02: I have to look it up, but it he went on a rant, and I remember that day.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_02: I remember when he said he started yelling on the TV.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_02: He's like, President Obama, are you listening?
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_02: And then the next day in the press conference, President Obama said, Well, regardless of what Mr.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_02: Santelli thinks.
• 32:37
  SPEAKER_02: So, like he heard it.
• 32:38
  SPEAKER_02: Like yeah, he heard it.
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_02: Uh well, yeah, media is powerful, even podcasts are powerful.
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_02: Let's continue, Mr.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_02: Power.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_02: Number seven, farm policy updates.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_02: Did you have something you want to say?
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it's October, and we're eventually we we could get a statement this week, maybe the following week, on what those ARC PLC payments are going to be.
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_00: Now we'll focus on corn and soybeans.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_00: Our good friend Paul Nefer, Farm CPA report put out an article earlier projecting the math for the 2025.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_00: Remember, this is 2025, not 2026 PLC math.
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_00: And for corn, he had what did it turn out?
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_00: 27 cents a bushel on the plc rate and 21 cents a bushel for soybeans.
• 33:29
  SPEAKER_00: Now that's a you know, it's not as much as the early season projections, but we're getting more from the marketplace if you have a crop, Tommy.
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_00: So bottom line, I just want to point out we're gonna get the actual uh rates for both uh PLC and ARC.
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_00: And USDA is gonna pick the higher of the two for this year.
• 33:51
  SPEAKER_00: That's not the case for 2026, by the way.
• 33:53
  SPEAKER_00: So whatever is higher, you know, farmers are gonna get.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_00: So and we we put out a uh a special report on the 29th titled ARC PLC payments, still slated for October as farmers await final amounts.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_00: And yes, the Commodity Credit Corporation has enough money to pay these uh amounts.
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_02: What's that cap?
• 34:17
  SPEAKER_02: That 30 billion mark?
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_00: That's the$30 billion borrowing authority.
• 34:21
  SPEAKER_00: And they're getting close, they're getting close, but it will be replenished by the end of this calendar year after Congress comes back in a must-passed uh spending bill, either as supplemental or whatever.
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_00: It's always gets done and it will, trust me.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_02: And Jim, I'll have more for that on premium subscribers.
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_02: Paul's gonna join me this week, I believe, if his travel schedule allows, and he's gonna go over that in detail in long form.
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_02: Paul and I do a video like you and I do about once a month, and that only goes out to subscribers of Paul and subscribers of uh us.
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna see him out in uh Napa.
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_00: He's gonna be out in Napa.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_02: I better catch him early then.
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, he we've got a lot of time there.
• 35:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's a multi-day meeting.
• 35:06
  SPEAKER_00: So he'll okay.
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_00: Will you be drinking any wine?
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_00: I he will, and I'll just drink one.
• 35:11
  SPEAKER_00: I can only drink one glass of wine.
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_00: It gets to me.
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_02: It gets to you.
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_02: Well, it's hard to type and spell correctly if you drink a little too much wine.
• 35:19
  SPEAKER_00: Our second program we've got up here.
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_00: I this is the beauty of having a farmer clientele as well, because they're grassroots.
• 35:27
  SPEAKER_00: I I got more than a few emails from a number of wheat growers saying, hey, anything new on top-up payments on DRP stage two.
• 35:35
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why I love emails for farmers.
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_00: Don't be afraid to email me.
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_00: Additional aid is under review.
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_00: USDA is reportedly weighing another SDRP, that special disaster relief program.
• 35:50
  SPEAKER_00: SDRP, stage two top-up, but no payment rate or verified remaining balance has been announced.
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_00: I think they have about two and a half billion to work with, Tommy.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: Really?
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's not official, but I think two and a half billion.
• 36:06
  SPEAKER_00: Now, remember earlier USDA raised both stages, stage one and stage two payment factors from 35 to 70 percent.
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_00: They did that in April.
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_00: So another top-up would provide assistance beyond that increase.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_00: So pending applications, corrections, and quality loss claims will determine how much of the total 16.09 billion allocation for SDRP remains available.
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's what they're they're figuring out now, USDA.
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know whether we'll get it this week or whether it'll take a few more weeks for them to figure out how much money they have.
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_00: Now, raising the factor would increase positive calculated payments, but it would leave zero payment claims unchanged because zero times a factor is zero.
• 37:02
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_00: So hopefully, and I talked to uh Paul Nefer uh I emailed him Friday and asked him if he saw my report.
• 37:10
  SPEAKER_00: He said yes.
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_00: He hopes they change the revise the formula for step for stage two, like they worked the program for stage one under the that's a revenue loss gap.
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_00: That that there's a gap.
• 37:27
  SPEAKER_00: Stage one can supplement certain insured revenue losses, but stage two, what we know now, it's yield-based calculation, does not provide the same treatment.
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know whether USDA has found a way to change that.
• 37:43
  SPEAKER_00: If they do, boy, that would be a good change.
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_00: That would be farmer-friendly from USDA.
• 37:50
  SPEAKER_00: If Rollins wants a farmer-friendly announcement and she's desperately looking for some relative November 3rd election, this would be one.
• 37:59
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not predicting it.
• 38:00
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I do want to add one final thing.
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, USDA earlier told uh farm service agency offices some 2025 crops qualify.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_00: Remember, this is not 2025.
• 38:13
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, this is 23 and 24.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_00: Updated stage two policy covers qualifying crops affected by a 2024 disaster and later indemnified through crop insurance or NAP for a 2025 disaster when the coverage began in 2024.
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_00: A farmer will understand that, and I know crop insurance agents do what I just said.
• 38:40
  SPEAKER_00: You don't have to understand it, Tommy.
• 38:41
  SPEAKER_00: A farmer does.
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_02: Well, if I had checked coming in the mail, I'd learn it real quick too.
• 38:47
  SPEAKER_00: You know, that's true.
• 38:48
  SPEAKER_00: That's the latest on that.
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to get some news on two potential big program payouts.
• 38:54
  SPEAKER_00: So stay tuned there.
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_00: The last one we have, let's just get a little update on Farm Bill 2.0, especially since the Senate joined the House late last week and left until the lame death session of Congress when they come back after the November 3rd elections.
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a little more positive that some way, somehow, we could actually see a Farm Bill 2.0 approved this calendar year.
• 39:22
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not cocky on this one.
• 39:24
  SPEAKER_00: I want to see the results of the uh November 3rd elections, but I think there may be enough give in order to get this thing done.
• 39:34
  SPEAKER_00: And in our the week ahead that I put out today on AgBull.com, we discussed some of the differences between the House and Senate Farm Bill version and some other features, you know, like year-round E15, Prop 12, MCOL, things like that.
• 39:56
  SPEAKER_00: All that's embodied in these negotiations that Senate Ag Committee Chairman John Bozeman, Republican from Arkansas, said this past week that he's going to talk uh with his counterparts, of course, including House Ag Chairman G.T.
• 40:11
  SPEAKER_00: Thompson, Republican from Pennsylvania, and the other, and the two Democrats, too, the four what they call the four four quarters, in order to come up with some compromises so they can iron out differences, so they can hit the ground running when lawmakers come back in the lame duck session of Congress.
• 40:28
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's the update for that one, Tommy.
• 40:30
  SPEAKER_02: All right, that's a lot of exciting things here.
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_02: We uh almost every week for a year we've been talking about cattle, and that's our next slide here.
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_02: And did you tell me the weather affected this a little bit this week?
• 40:46
  SPEAKER_00: One of the days, what was it?
• 40:47
  SPEAKER_00: Wednesday, Wednesday, I think, when we had all that rain down in Texas.
• 40:51
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, they've been they've been hitting Kansas.
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_00: I know.
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_00: I've heard from a number of e uh emails from Kansas wheat farmers of all the rain they've been getting in Texas.
• 41:00
  SPEAKER_00: It it affected so much that they that that they just didn't have the cattle crossings.
• 41:05
  SPEAKER_00: The I think was Thursday's report, I think it was.
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_00: It could have been Wednesday, but one of the days this week.
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_00: But Friday, I I I got in our in our dashboard today, I got the Friday crossings.
• 41:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now, these are estimates, but Douglas, Arizona had 1,000 head.
• 41:24
  SPEAKER_00: Santa Teresa, New Mexico, Douglas is Arizona, had 950 head.
• 41:29
  SPEAKER_00: So the combined Friday was 1,950 head for the week.
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_00: It totaled just over 6,000 head.
• 41:37
  SPEAKER_00: Now that's still not a lot, Tommy.
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_00: You had 3,450 head in Douglas and Santa Teresa 2,600.
• 41:45
  SPEAKER_00: Santa Teresa is supposed to be above Douglas, Arizona.
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna have to get to the reasons why that's still running behind.
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_00: But the this shows continued cattle moving across the border.
• 42:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's gonna pick up in the in the weeks and months of the year.
• 42:03
  SPEAKER_02: In the year end, yeah, yeah.
• 42:04
  SPEAKER_02: But it it could take a long time to get up to the levels it used to be, right, Jim?
• 42:09
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, definitely.
• 42:10
  SPEAKER_00: And I think one USDA Secretary Rollins, I hear a lot of cat calls on cat calls on her recently.
• 42:17
  SPEAKER_00: I tell you the truth, I do.
• 42:19
  SPEAKER_00: And one of the things that people point out to me, whether it's whether it's fair or not, she held the border closed for too long, for over a year.
• 42:29
  SPEAKER_00: And I know it was a safety issue, totally understand that, but that border probably should have been open minimum three months earlier, if not six months earlier.
• 42:41
  SPEAKER_00: And we would be well on our way to getting more feeder cattle across if the White House wanted more cattle for potential beef supplies.
• 42:51
  SPEAKER_00: But uh, that's my bottom line on that.
• 42:54
  SPEAKER_00: That I'm starting to hear from the trade.
• 42:56
  SPEAKER_02: Very good.
• 42:57
  SPEAKER_02: Let's next one.
• 42:58
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, move along here.
• 42:59
  SPEAKER_02: We got number nine.
• 43:00
  SPEAKER_02: This one, uh, you know, don't watch what they say, Jim.
• 43:04
  SPEAKER_02: Watch what they do.
• 43:05
  SPEAKER_02: And in some of these reports, like this number nine global food prices hit four-year high.
• 43:10
  SPEAKER_02: Uh yeah, they could send all the tweets and ex posts they want, but these numbers are the truth.
• 43:17
  SPEAKER_02: Do describe them.
• 43:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, FAO of the United Nations Food and Ag Organization, highest food price index since November 2022.
• 43:26
  SPEAKER_00: You got to sit up and notice that it was up 1.5% monthly and 5.8% annually.
• 43:33
  SPEAKER_00: That's almost a six percent increase.
• 43:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's around the world, Tommy.
• 43:37
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, sugar rose a little over six percent, cereals, grains a little over five percent, vegetable oils almost one percent, meat actually fell a little over one percent, and dairy was nearly unchanged.
• 43:51
  SPEAKER_00: Now, what drove the increases?
• 43:53
  SPEAKER_00: Black Sea shipping disruptions.
• 43:55
  SPEAKER_00: There we've got the connecting the dots here.
• 43:58
  SPEAKER_00: Weather risk and higher energy and freight cost drove the increases.
• 44:03
  SPEAKER_00: So, all the issues, Tommy, that we've been talking about now for months have been resulted.
• 44:09
  SPEAKER_00: Reflected in this increase in world food prices.
• 44:12
  SPEAKER_00: That's how you connect dots.
• 44:14
  SPEAKER_00: Black Sea shipping disruptions, logistics, weather risk, higher energy and freight costs, the Strait of Harmoo's, the Red Sea blockage by the Houthis, it drove the increases.
• 44:26
  SPEAKER_00: So what's the implication?
• 44:28
  SPEAKER_00: The FAO's top economist warned that sustained commodity increases could push consumer food prices even higher, especially in countries dependent on food and energy imports.
• 44:41
  SPEAKER_00: Now we didn't discuss it, but on the bright side on energy, you're getting uh near the level in uh crude oil passing through the Strait of Harmuz that we did, Tommy, before the February 28th war with Iran.
• 45:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's excluding Iran, because the United States has effectively blocked Iranian oil exports, and that's impressive.
• 45:09
  SPEAKER_00: That's impressive that that the now the U.S.
• 45:12
  SPEAKER_00: Navy is guiding those oil shipments.
• 45:15
  SPEAKER_00: So I think the trend is going to be there now because we're the this economic uh blockade of Iran is really starting to work now, to tell you the truth.
• 45:25
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 45:26
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, then that's that's what you know people don't see.
• 45:29
  SPEAKER_02: They don't they don't when you talk about Scott Bassant or any of these higher up officials who understand world finance putting restrictions on people, stopping the flow of capital.
• 45:42
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they it it takes a while to work, but I don't I do think, in my own personal opinion, that people are extremely frustrated with where we are as far as prices, inflation, insurance, the overall cost of stuff.
• 45:56
  SPEAKER_00: It's a tax increase, right?
• 45:58
  SPEAKER_00: It's a big tax increase.
• 46:00
  SPEAKER_02: There's no way I don't care what party you are on, I don't care if you're on the moon.
• 46:04
  SPEAKER_02: If you're on the moon and you pay more for stuff, it's not to your benefit.
• 46:07
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 46:07
  SPEAKER_00: There was a I watched uh News Nation.
• 46:10
  SPEAKER_00: I'm starting to watch actually more than Fox little insight.
• 46:14
  SPEAKER_00: I liked you know News Nation.
• 46:16
  SPEAKER_00: They showed a trucker filling up a big, a huge truck, thousand dollars that it costing for diesel fuel.
• 46:23
  SPEAKER_00: He must add a small tank because they can put a lot more in that put a lot more, but it well, it showed a thousand on the tank.
• 46:30
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe that's a pump shut off then.
• 46:31
  SPEAKER_02: It would have had to get a new credit card, you know.
• 46:34
  SPEAKER_02: You think I'm kidding?
• 46:37
  SPEAKER_00: I saw a jump the other day when somebody was at the at a gasoline pump and it only would go so far and then it went to zero, and he that's what he paid.
• 46:47
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, I love it.
• 46:48
  SPEAKER_02: That well, let's find that station.
• 46:49
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, with the next one, it's the coming week.
• 46:52
  SPEAKER_00: We're almost there, we're in the last thrust.
• 46:54
  SPEAKER_00: Monday.
• 46:55
  SPEAKER_00: We've got something gonna go on Monday in Iowa.
• 46:58
  SPEAKER_00: Secretary Rollins, USDA, is gonna be in uh Prairie City, Iowa late in the afternoon, 6 p.m.
• 47:06
  SPEAKER_00: Central time.
• 47:07
  SPEAKER_00: She's gonna address what they're calling seed sovereignty.
• 47:12
  SPEAKER_00: Competition focus.
• 47:14
  SPEAKER_00: The the Department of Justice is gonna participate.
• 47:17
  SPEAKER_00: Now, to me, that should suggest scrutiny of seed licensing, sales practices, and farmer choices.
• 47:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now, over the last few months, uh we've had a buyer, some people say, agreed in May to suspend certain seed technology loyalty provisions for seven years following Department of Justice scrutiny.
• 47:42
  SPEAKER_00: And Cartava had a September settlement with the Federal Trade Commission and states required dismantling its existing post-patent pesticide loyalty program.
• 47:53
  SPEAKER_00: They imposed restrictions for 10 years and included$35 million in payments to states.
• 47:59
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the proposed order requires still court approval, but we've seen some action here in the seed market.
• 48:06
  SPEAKER_00: Now, farmer, what do farmer stakes in this?
• 48:09
  SPEAKER_00: Licensing terms can affect independency companies' access to genetics and traits, producers' purchasing options, and seed costs.
• 48:20
  SPEAKER_00: So I think this is going to come out in that press event we're going to have Monday.
• 48:25
  SPEAKER_00: What should a farmer watch?
• 48:28
  SPEAKER_00: Specific changes, enforcement provisions, and any implementation dates that would affect 2027 seed purchases, would they?
• 48:39
  SPEAKER_00: The advisory from USDA announces no new policy or funding commitment, so it's hard to read between the lines on this one.
• 48:47
  SPEAKER_00: But for uh Rollins to go out there and the Department of Justice, something's cooking, as we say.
• 48:54
  SPEAKER_00: So stay tuned.
• 48:55
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 48:55
  SPEAKER_02: Yep.
• 48:56
  SPEAKER_00: On Tuesday, October 6th, we get an international trade report.
• 49:00
  SPEAKER_00: I'm telling you, it's a big one because we're going to dissect to see what China imported beyond what we know on the traditional ag products that may count that may count against this$17 billion.
• 49:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's why this report is important.
• 49:17
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to see ethanol trade and all that.
• 49:20
  SPEAKER_00: We'll we'll have two or three specials as a result of this international trade report.
• 49:25
  SPEAKER_00: It's released at 8 30 Eastern Time on Tuesday.
• 49:30
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Wednesday, we have the Federal Open Market Committee meetings.
• 49:35
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's just the details of the September 15th, 16th meeting.
• 49:39
  SPEAKER_00: We already know what they did, but we're going to dissect a little more on the uh the their views on inflation, employment, and the outlook for interest rates that they discussed at that time.
• 49:51
  SPEAKER_00: That's released at 2 p.m.
• 49:53
  SPEAKER_00: Eastern time on Wednesday, October 7th.
• 49:56
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Thursday, maybe Friday, so sometimes they slip a day.
• 50:01
  SPEAKER_00: We get what USDA calls the ag trade update.
• 50:04
  SPEAKER_00: That's USDA's monthly agricultural export, import, and trade balances.
• 50:10
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to watch export demand and the agricultural trade deficit.
• 50:14
  SPEAKER_00: So that report again will come out either Thursday or Friday.
• 50:18
  SPEAKER_00: But the big Friday report is the USDA reports on crop production and the WASDI with the supply and demand reports.
• 50:27
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to see.
• 50:28
  SPEAKER_00: Watch your average trade guesses.
• 50:30
  SPEAKER_00: Are they out yet?
• 50:31
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't see them.
• 50:32
  SPEAKER_02: I'm sure the emails will be floating around on Monday.
• 50:35
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 50:35
  SPEAKER_02: And uh I'll text those out to uh all clients.
• 50:38
  SPEAKER_00: I know Stone X came out, and so did SP Global.
• 50:42
  SPEAKER_00: They're not seeing much change from USDA's uh September numbers.
• 50:49
  SPEAKER_02: It almost feels like the bean crop's getting a little bigger, but you see pictures on the internet of beans popping out and parts of Iowa.
• 50:56
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
• 50:57
  SPEAKER_02: You if you look on the internet, you always find pictures of something.
• 50:59
  SPEAKER_00: But oh, definitely.
• 51:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and you if you want to kill a cut crop, go talk to an agronomist.
• 51:05
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry.
• 51:05
  SPEAKER_00: Just they can kill a crop with the best of them.
• 51:10
  SPEAKER_02: All right, we got one more slide wrapping it up.
• 51:12
  SPEAKER_02: I do got to take a second to thank our sponsors.
• 51:14
  SPEAKER_02: We uh I often brag that we're not bought out by big ag.
• 51:18
  SPEAKER_02: We're not, but we do have a good partner in T4 plus 500 T4.
• 51:22
  SPEAKER_02: It's the software we use for quotes, it's the software I use to trade.
• 51:25
  SPEAKER_02: Some people like to be self-directed and click the mouse themselves or just be able to log on to their phone and see that.
• 51:31
  SPEAKER_02: If that's something you'd like, get a hold of us here at AgBull and we'll make sure you get uh that software in that account.
• 51:36
  SPEAKER_02: Of course, Trade the News, our good friends at Trade the News, it's an audio squawk service, and they are uh pumping out information night and day.
• 51:44
  SPEAKER_02: I'm I'm kind of nervous, like, oh my god, I gotta sit down to trade.
• 51:47
  SPEAKER_02: It's almost seven o'clock, but it's only Saturday, Jim.
• 51:51
  SPEAKER_02: But uh our good folks at Trade the News will be popping out information.
• 51:55
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, and uh and I use I use both of those services, by the way.
• 51:59
  SPEAKER_00: I like the the uh was to see what the market's doing just to capture a tone, and because if there's volatility, there's probably news behind it, so I'll go search it.
• 52:08
  SPEAKER_00: And then on the news portion, oh my goodness, that services so yeah, trade the news is very good news of quickly digesting the morning papers very early in the morning, by the way.
• 52:20
  SPEAKER_02: Well, because they're weekend in Europe too, yes.
• 52:22
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, the weekend barren's and things like that.
• 52:25
  SPEAKER_00: And I just lose, yeah, I use them as a hunting dog for me for news.
• 52:29
  SPEAKER_00: There's they're my news hunting dog.
• 52:31
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, yeah, real for real quick, folks, before we wind Jim up and let him go.
• 52:36
  SPEAKER_02: I have to kindly, politely suggest that you move over to premium because there's a lot of stuff that we're putting out, shows that you might not know about.
• 52:45
  SPEAKER_02: If you like cattle, we have Before the Bell with Mike Sands.
• 52:48
  SPEAKER_02: Every single day we do a five-minute cattle podcast.
• 52:52
  SPEAKER_02: People like Paul Nefer jump on.
• 52:54
  SPEAKER_02: This was Friday's show.
• 52:56
  SPEAKER_02: If you're not subscribed, I could send you this.
• 52:58
  SPEAKER_02: This is a fellow commodity broker friend of mine, Tom Leffler from Leffler Commodities.
• 53:03
  SPEAKER_02: He's a friend of mine and does business with Nesvik.
• 53:06
  SPEAKER_02: Friday Futures Report with Tom Leffler and Jed Sidwell.
• 53:09
  SPEAKER_02: Those are all premium things that were emailed and texted out.
• 53:12
  SPEAKER_02: All right, I'm ready to let them loose.
• 53:15
  SPEAKER_02: We talked about your travels, we talked about the week ahead.
• 53:18
  SPEAKER_02: I thought this was going to be a short show, but just you and I like to talk.
• 53:23
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, you can't bullshit a bullshitter, Jim.
• 53:26
  SPEAKER_00: And and I'm going out uh to for speaking, and I know groups and Nama coming up, and they don't want all negative news.
• 53:35
  SPEAKER_00: So I always like to come up with some reasons for optimism.
• 53:39
  SPEAKER_00: And I've got 10.
• 53:40
  SPEAKER_00: One, and these are bottom line, growing global demand, like India, Southeast Asia, they're driving demand growth.
• 53:49
  SPEAKER_00: Two, improving diets, global feed protein uses up 13 and a half percent over a decade.
• 53:56
  SPEAKER_00: And what's agriculture?
• 53:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's protein.
• 53:59
  SPEAKER_00: You raise anything protein, you're in a growth market, corn, soybeans, animals, etc., meal.
• 54:05
  SPEAKER_00: Three is export outlooked.
• 54:07
  SPEAKER_00: We talked about the ex the uh trade report coming out this week.
• 54:11
  SPEAKER_00: Fiscal year 2027 exports are up seven billion dollars.
• 54:16
  SPEAKER_00: Now they hopefully they go up more, but well, that's uh trend is your friend there because they've been down for the last few years.
• 54:24
  SPEAKER_00: Four is energy demand.
• 54:25
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 54:26
  SPEAKER_00: We have been covering that like our backsides.
• 54:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, EPA RFS volume finalized for 26 and 27, as long as EPA doesn't finagle it too much.
• 54:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's good for corn and definitely for bile-based biodiesel.
• 54:41
  SPEAKER_00: Domestic processing number five.
• 54:43
  SPEAKER_00: Look at the number of plants.
• 54:45
  SPEAKER_00: There was a recent one is in Wisconsin record soybean crush in 26 and 27.
• 54:53
  SPEAKER_00: Six is productivity record, farm output is nearly three times its 1948 level, the year I was born.
• 55:01
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, we're we're raising three times the level.
• 55:06
  SPEAKER_02: That's amazing.
• 55:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's productive.
• 55:09
  SPEAKER_02: That's technology, production.
• 55:10
  SPEAKER_02: That's technology, yes, technology, better keeping of the everything.
• 55:14
  SPEAKER_00: They're just and the other one is technology and margin.
• 55:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, precision tools got input, labor costs, thank goodness.
• 55:21
  SPEAKER_00: Aid is stronger risk protection.
• 55:23
  SPEAKER_00: Look at the crop insurance.
• 55:24
  SPEAKER_00: You want a success story, and not just the government program, it's government working with the private industry.
• 55:31
  SPEAKER_00: That's why I love the crop insurance program and the agents.
• 55:35
  SPEAKER_00: That's why farmers love two groups.
• 55:38
  SPEAKER_00: They like their agronomist and they like their crop insurance agents.
• 55:42
  SPEAKER_00: And this is why the programs work, Tommy.
• 55:44
  SPEAKER_00: Higher premium support, more coverage.
• 55:47
  SPEAKER_00: Nine is beginning farmers.
• 55:49
  SPEAKER_00: The benefit, the benefits now, via the farm bill, now run for up to 10 crop years.
• 55:55
  SPEAKER_00: It takes a while, yeah.
• 55:56
  SPEAKER_00: It takes a while for a fledgling farmer to you know get into that profit ledger.
• 56:03
  SPEAKER_00: That's a good thing.
• 56:04
  SPEAKER_00: And number 10, financial strength.
• 56:07
  SPEAKER_00: We can cuss and discuss, but farm equity is forecast at three almost four trillion dollars in 2026.
• 56:15
  SPEAKER_00: So that sho shows you the amount of uh equity muscle that the ag sector has in it, and that's why investors still like it.
• 56:25
  SPEAKER_00: That's pretty good positive to stop on.
• 56:27
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I do have to ask one question.
• 56:29
  SPEAKER_02: When you go on your trip, are you gonna be wearing your agbo media shirt every day?
• 56:33
  SPEAKER_00: Except we gotta get them cotton.
• 56:36
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I don't know if I could uh afford all that with all the colors.
• 56:40
  SPEAKER_02: You want this color, that color, and you know, I just wear black like Johnny Cash every day, and it works out for itself.
• 56:45
  SPEAKER_00: But uh maybe I can have the cotton.
• 56:47
  SPEAKER_00: I know cotton people listen to this podcast.
• 56:49
  SPEAKER_00: I can get will you email will you email Tom Tom and tell him what firm he should order cotton?
• 56:57
  SPEAKER_00: No, egg bull shirts from the shirt company.
• 57:00
  SPEAKER_02: The problem when you order these shirts, there's hundreds of shirts and companies, but uh I'll call the gals over at the uh company and tell them they have to be smooth.
• 57:09
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I don't like a rough feeling shirt, but they're they're out there because I I buy them for because the cotton people have told me where to buy it from, and I can give you who I buy it from.
• 57:19
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, absolutely.
• 57:20
  SPEAKER_02: Well, they're not cheap.
• 57:21
  SPEAKER_02: Well, with uh we can do it.
• 57:24
  SPEAKER_02: I know we could do it.
• 57:25
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, on a positive note, Purdue just beat Illinois if you're Indiana fan and if you love the state of Indiana, Indiana's getting ready to play football.
• 57:33
  SPEAKER_02: It I really do enjoy doing the shows with you now on Sunday, Jim, because it's helped me in my personal trading to realize how much stuff happened Friday night, Saturday, Sunday.
• 57:45
  SPEAKER_00: It does.
• 57:45
  SPEAKER_02: Then I turn on trade the news and the markets open, and I myself am much more prepared.
• 57:50
  SPEAKER_02: And I have you to thank for that, my friend.
• 57:52
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you're quite welcome.
• 57:53
  SPEAKER_00: You're in tune, and that's why we want to connect the dots to listeners and viewers.
• 57:58
  SPEAKER_02: We'll leave it there.
• 57:59
  SPEAKER_02: See you, my friend.
• 57:59
  SPEAKER_02: Safe travels.