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Elon Musk Shares Warning in Interview! · Elon Musk Thinking

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It is refreshing to hear such optimism. I think people need. I think
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people need a positive mindset. I think it's self fulfilling prophecy to a large
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degree. You know, if you're pessimistic, and we can talk about how
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the news media just decimates our minds constantly. Yeah, the news is so
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negative. I mean it makes me sad to read the news. Frankly.
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I well, let me ask you a question. I don't watch I don't
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watch network news, and I don't read any newspapers. They couldn't pay me
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enough money. Yeah to do that. I'll accidentally read the news and I'll
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just be sad. It's insane. Well, I mean, as you know
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that the news, the daily news really really attempts to answer the question,
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what is the worst thing that happened on Earth today? It is? And
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let me let me show it to you every five minutes in your living room,
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over and over and over again. Yeah. And it's a big world.
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There's eight billion people on Earth, so you know, somewhere something horrible
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is happening every single day. There's also great things happening every single day.
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And you know what I call CNN, the Crisis News Network, or the
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constantly negative news network. And the problem is that if they've got to scare
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you otherwise, you know, if they say, hey, it's been a
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pretty good day. Overall, we're you know, violence is an all time
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low. We've got more access to food, I nergy, water, healthcare,
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education on the plant than ever before. I mean, people would just
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start watching horror movies. I think it's dead. Yeah. Yeah. The
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challenge is it's it's our neural nets, the wiring of our brains, you
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know, evolved in a world of constant danger, and so we're sort of
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just wired for fear and scarcity constantly. Yeah. Well, yeah, I
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think you've made this point. Maybe others have, but it sort of makes
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sense as an evolutionary asymmetry that we would respond more to danger than to reward
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in that like the consequences of danger could be fatal. Like it could be
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like, well, if you go over there, there's a lion that's going
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to eat you, or some neighboring tribe that's going to kill you, and
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it's game over. Your genes are out of the gene pool. Yeah,
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you're out. Whereas say, like, uh, news that there's there's a
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there's a nice bush with berries over there is it's nice to have. It's
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it's optional, but it's there. In one case, you die, innother
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case you're you're hungry, but death is worse than hunger. So so that's
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why it's basically we're any anyone who did not respond more to negative news than
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positive news didn't make it. They were selected, they were selected against for
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sure. That's yes. I mean, anyone who was complacent about where the
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lion was even by the line. And and you know, the reality is,
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you know, the news media has one job to deliver your eyeballs to
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their advertisers. And when we pay ten times more attention to negative news and
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positive news, that's all we get twenty four to seven. So I mean,
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listen, it's yeah, it is. I mean I do get my
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my news invariably you know, on my on my feed on X but I
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also get all the great things happening in the world because I can selectively choose
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to watch that. But when you're watching TV or you know, in the
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newspaper, some editor someplace or some producers deciding what gets fed into your mind,
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and it can really screw with your mindset. Yes, exactly. So
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I mean, this this space is called it the coming Age of Abundance.
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And you know, you were really when my first book came out, Abundance
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the Future is better than you think. You were super supportive and and I
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appreciate that was twelve years ago, and I think the story whoawelve amazing.
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Yeah, and it's gotten so much better. So I it is in so
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many ways, not every way, I mean, I mean, do we
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go back aways. I remember where we were at a data's party in Brazils.
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Yeah, how long ago? I know he was it was his fortieth
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or was it his thirtieth? It was it was thirtyeth like, wow,
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when it was just when Yeah, it was just when I was forming space
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Yeah, it was it was two thousand and three there, but it was
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just before the Xprize was one. Right, I was trying to convince you
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not to build rockets twenty one years ago, like like you could have a
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kid that has legal or legally of kids. Yeah, yeah, so tw
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twenty one years ago. Yeah. So, and you know, I think
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things things are mostly better. You know. I want to give everybody listening
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a dose of hope and optimism on the abundance side, because the world has
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gotten better in so many ways. All you hear about is the negative constantly,
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and I think that's going back to our sort of core dystopian mindsets from
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you know, evolving one hundred thousand years ago. But if we just look
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at some of the look at some of the areas, right, so like
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global extreme poverty, right, I mean, what's more, what's what's a
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more important metric? You know, here are the numbers. Ninety percent of
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the world was in global extreme poverty in eighteen hundreds. In nineteen eighty one,
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it was forty two percent. Today it's under ten percent of the world.
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Right, Well, yeah, hunger. Hunger is actually rare, and
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it used to be common exactly. And another one is, obviously one hair
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that you're leading the charge on is energy. You know, we used to
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kill whales to get whale oil to light our nights, and we ravaged mountain
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sides and we drilled kilometers into the ground. Uh. And what's the figures
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like eight thousand times more energy hits the surface the sun. Is there a
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surface of the Earth from the Sun than we consume as a species. I
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mean, what's the rate at which batteries and solar is increasing? It's it
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must be massive, yes, I mean, I mean tell them we've we've
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made a couple of presentations, what one sort of simplistic and then one in
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extreme detail on how to make Earth completely self sustaining from an energy standpoint,
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and demonstrating that there that there is no that if you break down all of
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the raw materials for latium ion battery and for solar, you can easily make
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Earth. Uh, I mean, there's no shortage materials. It's easy.
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It's a lot of work, obviously, but but there's not like some critical
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material that we don't have enough of in order to make Oh, it's fully
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self sustaining. Even if the only way that you powered all of industry on
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Earth and all power including heating and transport electrically, you could do that with
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solar and left mine batteries and and not come anywhere close to depleting the resources
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of Earth. Yeah. My favorite, My favorite example there was back in
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the eighteen hundreds, the most precious metal on the planet was aluminum. It
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was more precious in gold and platinum. And even though the Earth's crust is
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you know, eight percent box site, you know, basically aluminum, it
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was just so energetically difficult it wasn't that it was scarce, it just wasn't
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a usable form yet. And that's what technology does. It takes something which
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is scared and not usable and makes it usable. Right So yeah, yeah,
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except alumino oxide is extremely common and but but it is it is a
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low energy state. In fact, thermite thermite. Thermite is just iron oxide
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rust and and and pure aluminum and the the energy difference between iron oxide and
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aluminum oxide is so great that it generates an incredible and enough heat to melt
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through steel. So that's what thermite is. So yeah, you do need
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a lot of energy to turn aluminum oxide into aluminum. But but but yeah,
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it in World War Two there was a massive scarcity of aluminum aircraft and
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uh that In fact, in Britain, the Mosquito, uh sort of fiber
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bomber was made of mostly of wood, but it was it was done with
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it was basically an early form of composites, but using stuff wood on the
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outside and lightwood and like balsa as a sandwich structure. It's pretty clever.
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And now the whole thing was intended to address the shortage of and that and
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then then we get technology, we get better, better mechanisms of extracting the
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aluminum from the from the lunaroxide from the box side, and this happens over
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and over again. In fact, that's just what we do. I mean,
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I think the number was last year in twenty twenty three or maybe in
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twenty two, we had more elect new electricity production from solar than from any
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other form. And and you've done an extraordinary job on battery production. Yeah,
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and the backery production is growing actually almost well at several times the rate
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of vehicle production. So you know it's a this is almost ten x the
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rate of vehicle production. So so yes, there's a massive amount for batteries.
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And you know, as the world uses more electricity, uh, there's
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actually a lot more capability that the grid has if you can buffer the energy,
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uh than without it, because the vast majority of electric electrical grid it's
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wasted. Assume no, they assume no buffer. So they have to size
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the power plants for for peak output peak power output, which is typically a
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hot summer day, and and and then for at night you can have anywhere
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from half optimistically half power output to sometimes one tenth of the power output.
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So so basically the grid almost everywhere the grid is sized for excess electrical power
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output, and if you just buffer it with batteries, you can increase the
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output of the grid by you know, two or three times. I mean
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to make to make the point here on the abundance theme, there is no
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limitation energy. Right. We are increasing the amount of energy per capita.
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And there's a direct correlation between the GDP of a nation and its energy production,
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right, and the direct correlation between health and education and energy. Everything
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scales as you increase the energy per capita of a nation. Yeah. Yeah,
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it's about another category communications, another area that you're revolutionizing. I think
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the number right now, I just was checking it earlier. It's like six
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point nine billion smartphone users in twenty twenty three, eighty six percent. And
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that's what I got when I when I googled it. No, no,
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what it's six point nine Yeah, it's sixty eight million others go there that
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My my twelve year olds would say the same. It's like eighty five eighty
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five percent of the planet's got a smartphone. And and well, I mean
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if you if you add up the total number of smartphones may ever made,
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it exceeds Yeah. Oh, I think so it's a it's amazing. So
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we've gone from like zero telephony to the majority, vast majority of the planet
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in under a century. You know, global internet is well the same thing.
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And did I your your next iteration of starlink spacecraft have gone up the
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director cell phone? Okay, yes, that just went up. So you
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know, we still have to prove that it works in a little bit.
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We we're confident that even if he if these early satellites don't work, were
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competent from a physics standpoint, that it can work. It's it is a
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challenge because we have to emulate a cells cell tower on the ground in order
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for the phones to accept the signal. So we have to do double compensation
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for example, and and and and do some sort of because because you've got
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a speed of light limitations. Tell, if we were easy, you would
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have been done already. Yeah, speed of light limit stations. You know
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this this like life is so fast and yet so slow, And you know,
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I think, yeah, A good way to think about light, at
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least in the space context. Uh, for the Lowes context is it travels
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about three hundred kilometers every mileisecond in error or in in space. And then
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and then around just over two hundred kilometers for mo second in fiber. You
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know, another abundance area is health. I hear some some kids in the
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background there, so interestingly enough, you know, child mortality, I mean
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probably, I mean this is one that hits me the most in terms of
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increasing abundance. Child mortality under the age of five was forty two percent a
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couple hundred years ago. It was a coin flip of whether your kids survived,
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and it's decreased now to under five percent, and it's gone down by
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fifty percent in the last thirty years. So just childhood mortality and women dying
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in childbirth, all of these things people don't think about when they're listening to
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all in use in all the issues, and then life expectancy, my favorite
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subject, has gone up from you know, thirty years old to seventy five
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plus. I still disagree with you on longevity though, that that we should
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solve it or not that like we should you think we should? Well,
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I listen, I'm not necessarily saying live forever, but I'd like to make
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it to one hundred and twenty one hundred and fifty. Yeah, I sort
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of wonder if we should not solve the toon your presidential elections first, and
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do you really want them to get that life expectancy you first? And do
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you really want them to get that life expectancy first? Well? Uh,
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you know, you know, I I think we uh, I think being
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able to have the vitality, the cognition, the physical prowess, uh,
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you know that you have when you're in your forties or fifties through the trip
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one hundred, that's my goal. I mean, you don't want to,
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you don't want to, you know, you want to make it to at
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least one hundred dollion. Well, I guess it does depend on whether I'm
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you know, have dementia. I don't think I'd want to be a Boudon
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on society or have dementia not know what's going on. I prefer to be
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dead. Well, yeah, I think that's that's for sure. But let's
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assume that you had, you know, all the cognitive power you have today
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in your physical strength. Is there any reason why you wouldn't want to,
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you know, have an extended lifespan or health span. Yeah, sure,
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I guess I think we are. End up, there's such a strong forceing
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function for life extension or health span extension that I think we will see uh
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it masters in that area, whether I want them to be there or not.
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And actually my opinion on the subject is that it's I think it's actually
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not that hard to solve because the if you just consider argumentsive symmetry that are
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quite quite helpful, the the cells O body all age agent basically almost exactly
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the same speed. Like what like, I've not seen anyone who has an
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old left arm and a young right arm. I've never seen that, not
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even once. Yes, so, how how are the cells communicating and how
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what is keeping them? What is synchronizing their behavior something? There's there's a
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very clear mechanism for synchronizing aging among the thirty to forty trillion cells in your
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body, Like depending on your body mass, you're typically going to have thirty
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to forty trillion. That's that's correct, you know, yeah, I mean
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keep you know, in sync. I mean the other the other the other
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reference proof point is you know, bowhead whales from the largest mammals can make
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it to two hundred years repeatedly. Greenland sharks can make it to five hundred
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years and have babies at two hundred years old. I remember when I was
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in medical school hearing that, I said, you know, why can they
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why can't we said, it's either an engineering problem or software problem. Hardware
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problem or software problem. And I think, I think this is one of
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the biggest areas AI is going to give us is a real understanding. And
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then to your other point about your left arm and right arm. You know,
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when you have a baby, women's thirty thirty five, you're forty forty
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five, your baby starts out at zero. Yeah. I do find it
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remarkable that we decompressed from a single cell to an adult human and then and
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then we you know, to appro create compressed back down to a single cell.
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This fascinating, you know what I mean. Look, you sort of
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look look at yourself as this sort of you know blast as system, say
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like I haven't changed a bit. Here we go again, let's recycle.
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It's like the Big Bang. It's like rand the Big crunch. You know,
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one of the things people argue about on extended health span. Uh and
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you know, increasing the population getting to one hundred, one hundred and twenty
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one hundred and fifty and there's a constant co longevity escape philosity, right that
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there's going to be a point at which for every year you're alive, science
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is extending your life for more than a year. And that's an interesting idea
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to think about, in which case, you know, accidents become really a
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thing to be concerned about. They concerned about overpopulation and you've you've hit this
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multiple times, right, and I saw you tweeting about it or sorry you're
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xing about it today. Sorry, but it's you know, overpopulation sho is
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one of the biggest myths and biggest population. Yeah, you know, and
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and you know it's it's such nonsense. The Earth is underpopulated, not overpopulated.
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We can look out the window when you're flying across the country, it's
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empty, absolutely exactly. It's like if you said, like if your goal
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was food, like flying from Elliott in New York to drop a bowling ball
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on a human, you would fail. So you know, I think one
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of one of my goals. I think the greatest gifts we can give people
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in this abundance world is increased health span. I mean, when you think
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about what people want, they want happiness and they want health. Right,
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no one wants to die in a painful cancer or or dementia, So yeah,
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and you know I have extended to you many times, my friend,
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come down to Fountain Health. Let me put you through our program. The
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world needs you around for another thirty thirty years. Okay, well, well
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what do you have any what should I do? Let's say, well,
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I mean, so there're two what access can be taken? They're two quiements
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could be helpful. There are two on the discussion. Yeah, so there
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are two. There are three things you need to know. Number one,
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is there anything going on inside your body that you don't know about? So
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the body is amazingly good at hiding disease. So we found in our seemingly
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healthy adults two percent have a cancer they don't know about two and a half
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percent two and a half percent of an aneurysm. Fourteen point four percent either
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have metabolic disease, coronary disease, neurogenerative disease, and and so your body
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is incredibly good at hiding disease. Right, so you don't actually feel any
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cancer until stage three or stage four. Seventy percent of all heart attacks have
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no precedents. Your body is compensating constantly, and you know, for most
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of us, we know more about what's going inside our cars or airplanes than
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we do our bodies. Yea, I have a question for you. How
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many how many sensors are going up on starship when you're launching? How many
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start sensors are going are on board that vehicle? Rough order magnitude getting back
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data? Well, I guess this. When you count everything up, there's
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several thousand sensors. And if I were, I mean they're are thirty three
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engines, so they count for the bulk of sure, but you also have
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stress sensors and looking what's going on in the structures and ibionics and communications across
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all the subsystems. And if I ask you, how may nine engines including
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the up stages. So so yeah, there's several thousand sensors and way more
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answers than Yeah, I was gonna say if you, if I asked you,
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how many sensors do you have in your body? And so we don't
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look, which is insane because we do have the technology now and look to
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determine is there anything going on I need to know about and when's a good
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time to find out about like now? Or what's likely to break, what's
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likely to undergo failure cycles? And then what's the most extraordinary therapeutics available to
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extend the human life span. So I mean for me, that's that's uh,
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that's a that's a big one. Let me ask you another another abundance
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theme, which is education. Do you think any of our schools today,
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middle schools or high schools are preparing any of our kids for the future.
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Well, none that I know of. They might, I mean they might
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be. Probably are a few schools that are doing it, but probably ninety
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nine percent of schools or not. Yeah. Uh, schools are rice loads
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floated change. And I think that they're there there. There is these things
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you move away from teaching the fundamentals you know of writing well and math and
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history. You know, I'm concerned about the whole world agenda and ideology permeating
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through education, agreed, and actually being destructive to education. Agreed. I
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mean, you know, how do you think do you have these thoughts?
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I mean, so at the end of the day, I think our best,
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our best healthcare, and our best teachers are going to be ais right
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that understand everything, and they demonetize and they democratize every aspect. I mean,
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the AI knows your your kid's favorite color, sports star, movie star,
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what they know, the languages, they know, what they did today.
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I mean, it's a way of giving every child on the planet the
25:02
best educator. I mean, you you funded back years ago. If you
25:04
remember the Global Learning Xprize that we did. We did that. We demoed
25:10
in times in THEA with ais on tablets. It was the earliest days of
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ai. Emi Mustock, you know, was one of the winners of that
25:18
competition who went on out to create stability, I mean, the challenges.
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I don't think the educational systems are going to give up that control anytime soon.
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Sure well, I mean if I look at how my kids are educated,
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they seem to be mostly educated by YouTube and redded and x as well.
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I know, but they're constantly on the internet. That seems to be
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and I guess a lot of kids these days TikTok unfortunately. Yeah. So
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I think the education situation is problematic. That's what to do about it.
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I think I think ultimately, you know, kin Academy is one step in
26:14
the right direction, but I think part of it is getting our educational institutions
26:18
to first realize they're not preparing kids for the world that's coming. I mean,
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this hits another point. We are such linear thinkers, right, we're
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projecting what we have and putting it out four or five years. I don't
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think people let me ask you, do you think people are ready for what
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the world's going to be like in twenty thirty. No, I don't know
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what the world's going to be like in twenty thirty, so probably I wouldn't
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say that. I'm yeah, we definitely live in the most interesting time.
27:02
You know. It's like it's legedly this Chinese thing that may live in interesting
27:04
times is a not a good thing. But I mean, I think personally
27:11
I would like to live in the most interesting of times, and this is
27:14
the most interesting of times. I also think it's the best time to be
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alive. Ever, the only time more exciting than today is I mean,
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uh uh, you know by what measure? Yeah, we have environmental issues,
27:27
but I think we have the best chance of solving those environmental issues with
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the technology we have now versus technology we had ten years ago. Yeah.
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Well, I generally think it's as a as a general sort of rule of
27:42
living, it is it is better to err on the side of being optimistic
27:47
and wrong than pessimistic and right. If you're gonna make if you're gonna err
27:52
one side or the other. But it's just a higher quality of life to
27:56
ear on the side of being optimistic and risk being wrong than than pessimistic.
28:03
You know, and you know and right, I mean, it's it's better
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to be You'll just have a just enjoy life. Yeah, what a optim
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optimism is is gonna make you happy. There was a study of fourteen thousand
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people. It was fourteen thousand women and fifteen hundred guys, and it showed
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that those with an optimistic mindset lived fourteen to fifteen percent longer than those were
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the pessimistic mindset. I mean, mindset's a powerful thing and I think undervalued
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by almost everybody. One of my one of my favorite examples of this was,
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do you know what the environmental disaster of the eighteen eighties and eighteen nineties
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was. I'm sure you know. Is this back to whales? No?
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No, no, no, it's it's another form of life. It's the
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horseman or disaster, the horseship. Yes, yeah, what what is well?
29:03
Yeah, no, no, you're right. I mean New York what
29:08
was basically a horse manure and and and you're in uh and and carcass it
29:15
was. It was terrible. People brought their motive power. I mean,
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like if you think if you think, I think New York Subways is thinking
29:25
right now, wait, I mean try it everywhere. You know, people
29:33
every people, people moved from people moved into downtown New York, Detroit,
29:37
Chicago. They brought their motive power with them. And and the articles in
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the eighteen eighties and nineties and into the nineteen hundreds, as you as you
29:45
read this, the projection was disaster. It was going to be disaster because
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horse horse maneuver was like grow. They had like special parking lots for horseship
29:57
at the corner Very Street. Well, it seems like there's also a challenge
30:03
because I think a horse lives, you know, for on the order of
30:07
fifteen years. That means one fifteenth of all horses are kicking the bucket every
30:12
year. You just got. And so so if you've got like three hundred
30:22
thousand horses, it means you've got twenty thousand horses dropping dead every year.
30:26
And then you need a horse to move the horse or or just cover it
30:32
with horsemen or letter decompose. Yeah, I mean it's gonna be like decomposing
30:37
horse caucuses throughout ratri cities. But then and then and then like it's like,
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well, who's horn, who's dead horse? Business people are probably taking
30:45
to claim a lot, but they're not rushing to claim it. But then,
30:52
but then innovation came along and here comes the car and solves the problem.
31:00
And I think that's the problem that we keep on forgetting. We we
31:03
forget that we are incredibly innovative at solving problems. That's what humans are amazing
31:08
at. Yeah, yeah, true, true. Actually, on the whale
31:18
front, I don't know. Back to the whales, it's a whale of
31:22
a tail, whale tails. Okay. The so a lot of people think
31:29
that the low point on whale population was was in the eighteen hundreds, because
31:37
you know, whales were being hunted for for whales whale we yeah, but
31:44
actually the low point by far was in fact in the mid twentieth century because
31:55
of a bureaucratic in the Soviet Union. Okay that I have the year they
32:04
can so that they would always have these five year plans and quotas for for
32:08
howp for whale tonnage. Now didn't they didn't actually have even a whether the
32:14
whale tonnage was usable tonnage in any way, they just had a quota for
32:19
whale tonnage, and what they were doing in servi units, they would just
32:22
keep increasing the quota of everything every year, every five years. So that's
32:30
the whale tonnage just got a higher and higher and hire and if if you,
32:36
if you're a captain, and you and you and you had a high
32:37
wald tonnage, you'd get a medal and a raise. And if your whale
32:42
tonnage was low, you'd be sent to do you get you get what you
32:44
incentivized, babe? Yes? And does matter? And and so it got
32:50
to to it just got to absurd levels, and you had Soviet whaling ships
32:55
like going into h you know US and Australian wars to desperately trying to find
33:01
whales, and then they were they were catched the whale, weigh the whale
33:06
and then dump the cause. Go ahead. I mean, there's there's a
33:10
there's a whole internet rabbit hole that you can go out on the and which
33:15
is basically a lesson in the follies of central planning. So and this is
33:21
the problem of keeping laws on the books way way after they're useful to society.
33:28
Well, We do actually have a fundamental issue with the accumulation of laws
33:34
and regulations because they are immortal and humans are mortal, as we were just
33:39
discussing, you know, life extension, so so naturally, every year you're
33:45
going to have this accumulation of laws and regulations until eventually everything is illegal.
33:52
I mean, I mean everything is illegal, every everything. Everything is illegal.
33:55
Yes, nothing, nothing is allowed because you're overlapping laws regulations in some
34:00
of which are in fact contradict each other. That whether you go left or
34:06
right, they're both left and right, you know, like SpaceX. I
34:16
mean, shame on, you know, the d o J in this respect,
34:21
in this particular case where it DJ, as you may know, is
34:24
suing SpaceX for hiring only a permanent residence and citizens of the US. The
34:31
reason that we did this was because we were told very clearly that if we
34:37
did not hire permanent residence of the United States that that would constitute a violation
34:43
of international trade track Traffic in Arms regulations. IAR and the entire executive team
34:49
of SpaceX and the board would go to prove sounds like a good motivation,
34:53
yes, And so we we're literally told us by the government in very clear
34:58
terms, and I mean well aware of items I am. Yes, it's
35:02
it's a nightmare, and we would like to which which by the way,
35:07
puts us in a non competitive world against other nations. Yes, it's it's,
35:15
it's it's it's pretty bad. So but but then then then the d
35:22
J, you know, it's issuing SpaceX for not hiring asylum seekers. An
35:30
important point here, not asylum, those who have been granted asylum, those
35:36
who are seeking asylum. There's a lot of those. There's a lot of
35:37
people seeking asylum. Yes, so we're damned if we do and damned if
35:43
we don't. So if we hire someone who's not a poet residence, we're
35:50
breaking the law. And if we don't hire someone he's not a resident,
35:53
we're breaking the law. So this is, this is an example of the
35:58
madness that we're facing. But I want to compliment you on something which and
36:04
I've seen I've known you for long enough to have seen you gone through this
36:07
where you have bet everything over and over again. You bet your entire fortune,
36:14
got into debt to do the things that you believe in. And I
36:19
have a question to ask you, which I've been dying to ask, and
36:22
I'm going to start making this this known. There are so many billionaires on
36:28
the planet who have tens of billions and hundreds of billions of dollars who are
36:32
effectively sitting on it and not changing the world, not putting it in,
36:39
you know, other than for increasing its return, which is not a bad
36:44
thing. I think the more wealth and free energy there is out there to
36:47
do things. But can you speak to that, I don't know if you're
36:52
willing to. But there are a few people like Mark Benioff and Eric Schmid
37:00
and your sell yourself top of the list, who invest on making the world
37:04
a better place, solving global grand challenges. Thoughts on that open. Sorry,
37:14
I just have some some kids and stuff around problem, sort of family
37:19
noises in the background, so let's see. Yeah, well yeah, I
37:35
mean I do think that, uh it's smart. People with resources should care
37:39
about the good of civilization, the future of civilization, even if there is
37:45
not even if they're not particularly altruistic, because you can't really cannot you cannot
37:52
exist absent civilization. If civilization collapses, it's all over. You know.
38:01
There's like people have got like these sort of bunker other countries or why or
38:10
whatever. I'm like Listen, do you really think that you're gonna make it
38:15
in in an apocalyptic situation like they'll they'll they'll come and find you in that
38:22
bunker and they probably will pry you out and get your stuff, and and
38:28
and and it's it's gonna suck anyway. So really, uh, small feel
38:32
with resources, any small personal resources. They just have some long term perspective.
38:37
I mean, listen, it's you, it's you, and it's you
38:39
and and Jeff Bezos right now, Who've got the biggest long term perspective.
38:45
And I see I uh, you know, Uh, I'm just curious about
38:51
how do you incentivize other people to really help the world accelerate, uh,
38:59
you know, and and make the world a more productive place. Right.
39:05
The best way to become a billionaire's help a billion people, the world's biggest
39:07
problems, the world's biggest business opportunities. Uh do you believe that? Well?
39:16
I guess maybe it's just talk to people more. I guess, see,
39:21
just towing to them. And you know, I think it's perhaps just
39:27
raising conscious awareness the fact that there is no living without civilization. One you
39:37
like, one doesn't actually have to make an ultimistic augment. You can actually,
39:40
you know, make a even if it's purely self seeking argument like,
39:47
but life would be miserable without civilization. And if you want to know what
39:52
life is like without civilization, just go try living in the forest naked for
39:54
a day and you will be naked and afraid and quickly realized civilization is awesome.
40:07
I just eat bugged and get eating by bugged. And it's we're so
40:13
independent upon each other to enable the state of technology and capability we have today.
40:21
You know, I'm curious, is there anything that you think that isn't
40:27
becoming more abundant out there, or anything that we have an abundance constraint on
40:32
you? I'll just mention, well, answer that first. I don't want
40:36
to come and talk about the carbon removal experisee that you funded. One second.
40:43
You know we're we're creating abundance of food, energy, water, healthcare,
40:47
education. Are you constrained in any way? No? Not really,
40:53
No, I mean no, I think I agree with you that the future
41:00
most likely has abundant We shouldn't be complacent about the future. Complacency and entitlement
41:08
are not arrested for success, but most likely outcome is one of abundance of
41:16
business services. That is something where we're headed. Uh yeah, when I
41:22
when I saw you last, that's mighty likely where we're headed, very likely.
41:25
When I when I saw you last, you said, you know,
41:28
definitely abundance after a g I and I saw you know when you were talking
41:32
about optimists, which is awesome by the way, let's just start with that.
41:37
Congratulations. Well thanks optimist. I need to make sure the optimist is
41:45
it is it doesn't add to civilizational risk, you know, because you don't
41:51
want like a billion of these things or with centralized control unless unless has anyone
42:00
made a movie, unless they obey you. Well, I don't think there
42:09
could obey any anyone. Yeah, Like I think you have to have local
42:16
control, but it has to be decentralized because any central control it's going to
42:25
be problematic because you just can't be like it could be the a rogue AI
42:30
takes I mean listen, literally a movie, a rogue you know, terminator
42:35
H takes over somehow gains control of the mothership of that controls all the you
42:43
know, the Optimus robots or something like that. That is uh, basically
42:50
it needs to be it needs to be impossible for that to occur. Let
42:54
me ask you. I always love combining your companies because it's like you know,
42:59
you know, it's like uh a Reese's peanut butter Cup, you know,
43:04
starlink and and and uh and uh and Starship together. How about Optimists
43:10
neuralink? When can I plug into an Optimist with my neuralink connection? Well,
43:22
hopefully the first neural links will the first link, and a human will
43:28
hopefully be soon within the next maybe this month or next. Now this is
43:35
really just at first, it's just trying to give your quadriplegic, partaplegics and
43:40
tetraplegics the ability to control their phone and computer. It's it's basically like the
43:49
first the first product is te telepathy essentially or telekinesis and uh. And then
43:59
the second product uh so tentatively cooled blind sight where we can restore site even
44:06
if somebody is has lost both eyes and their optic notes. Amazing, go
44:13
straight to the visual detect Yeah, yeah, exactly. Now these things will
44:19
already work in monkeys, and I'd just like to reempasize no, no monkey
44:23
as has ever died because of a neural link, and we treat these extremely
44:29
well. Last time, I last time I spoke to you about this.
44:31
You were playing, You were playing Pong against Pager. I think that's right.
44:37
Actually, it turns out monkeys love playing the beer. They're they're really
44:43
just like us. I mean they they they love eating, eating snacks and
44:47
playing video I tell my twelve year old boys about that. Yeah, I
44:52
mean, you see the video of Pager playing you know, my monkey mind
44:59
pong, you know, just a telepathic paying punk telepathically. He's not restrained
45:04
in any way. He's just sitting on the sort of tree brand drinking smoothies
45:08
and drinking smoothies, drinking smoothie and playing pong. Yeah, he's not held
45:14
down, you know. In fact, he gets upset when we take a
45:17
video game away, just like human, just like our kids. It's awesome.
45:24
And the stuff I mean, giving sight to the blind, I mean,
45:29
it's biblical stuff. And this is again coming back to the original,
45:32
you know, kicking off the new year with a positive mindset, with an
45:37
abundance mindset, with an exponential mindset, with a moonshot mindset, right which
45:42
I think, and I think I hope you agree that. I think for
45:45
entrepreneurs and people listening, like the single most important thing we have is our
45:50
mindset how we see the world. I mean, would you agree with that?
45:54
Yeah, yeah, I mean you could choose to be I mean,
46:00
happiness is I think is a decision. I mean it's likely. I mean
46:07
there's other obviously, people that have chemical embalansis. But for most people,
46:14
the difference between being happy and unhappy is deciding to be happy. Amazing and
46:19
I want to take a second for everybody listening to point something out. You
46:24
know, Elando was twenty twenty one. I was texting with you and I
46:30
said you should fund another exprize. You funded an exprize years ago on teaching
46:35
kids in the middle of Tanzania, reading, writing, and arithmetic without any
46:38
adults, no schools around, just on a tablet. They were handed and
46:43
the software had to teach them and it was an amazing success. And then
46:45
in twenty one I asked you if you do an ex prize on carbon removal
46:52
and you said yes almost instantly, and we launched it three months later.
46:58
It was like the fast yes to an X Prize launch ever, So thank
47:02
you for that. I want to give you a quick update on it if
47:05
I could. You're welcome to absolutely well. I hope the education X prize
47:09
and the Cotton Remove X Prize or resultant. I'm sure we had six thousand
47:15
teams enter the Carbon Removal Prize. We have thirteen hundred active teams in the
47:22
competition right now as we down select about thirty six percent four hundred and sixty
47:30
are focused on carbon air capture, four hundred and thirty are land related capture,
47:37
two hundred and forty or ocean related capture. And the we've given away
47:44
twenty million of your money already, five million to students and fifteen million to
47:47
a million to the top fifteen teams. And the finals are coming up in
47:52
two years in the Earth Day of twenty twenty five. And interestingly enough,
47:58
you know, the winning team needs to demonst right uh mega ton level capture
48:02
that can scale to gigoton level capture. And so just the final competition is
48:07
going to capture for megatons of carbon, which is twice what's being done on
48:14
an annual basis today. So good progress, so far. Great. That's
48:20
that's good here. Well, as we as we uh, as we begin
48:25
to wrap up, what other thoughts for people on abundance, what other mindset
48:30
thoughts do you have for folks? Here is hmm. Well, I do
48:44
think that the birth rate is too low for human as I'm always going on
48:49
about that. That's the longevity, baby, I'm solving it with longevity,
48:54
going to keep people alive longer. Okay, well and robot and ai,
49:01
sure, but I mean it's just the current situation is is grammats grammat Yeah?
49:08
Yeah, yeah, I mean a lot of countries are you know,
49:14
if you say Korea, Italy, yeah, yeah, they're losing roughly half
49:19
their population per generation. Yeah, that means three generations, they're one tenth
49:24
of their current size, and with the one tenth that remains being very old.
49:32
Yeah. The numbers for folks that replacement numbers two point one children for
49:37
family on average, and Europe is at one point five. Asia dropped from
49:45
five point seven in the nineteen fifties to one point nine today, which is
49:51
crazy. North America dropped from about three to one point six, were below
49:57
the replacement level of the United States. And it's it is an issue.
50:01
I mean, we need smart people on the planet. Yeah. Well,
50:09
I mean if we don't make new humans, we won't have humanity. And
50:15
even with longevity, we'll live longer, but we're not lived forever. So
50:21
I think we just need it's you know, I'm concerned that, like a
50:23
lot of people think that the panel planet is overpopulated, and that's one of
50:28
the things contributing to a low birth rate. In fact, some people have
50:31
encountered think they're basically being martyrs for not having kids, and that's just it's
50:38
just not true. I think we should take the position that we actually have
50:45
a civic responsibility to have kids to at least keep the human population constant.
50:53
Ideally we should grow it, but we should at least not have population collapse,
50:58
which is what we currently have. I think people people fear the future,
51:02
and I mean the conversations I've heard is I don't want to bring children
51:07
into this world. It's too dangerous. AI is going to destroy humanity,
51:13
the environment, you know, we're destroyed the environment, and so forth.
51:15
So I think part of it is getting people to be optimistic about the future
51:22
versus pessimistic, which is one of as you said in the beginning of this
51:25
this space is one of my one of my missions. If people think the
51:29
world is getting better and they have a hand in making it a better place,
51:32
you most definitely do. Yeah, I think people should be optimistic about
51:38
the future. They can handle far more humans than currently exist, and the
51:45
danger is not a population explosion but population collapse. So I would just encourage
51:53
as may feel as possible to have kids and ideally have a lot of kids,
51:59
because they you're going to make up for those who by a extra bottle
52:04
of wine tonight, folks. Yeah, it's a big deal. So what
52:10
do you do you let's let's close out on a conversation of AI and AGI,
52:15
which I know a lot of people always interested in and and and there's
52:19
a real fear about AI. What would you say to dissuade people? I
52:27
mean, it's you've you've I've heard you say eighty percent probability we make it
52:32
through and we need to protect the downside. Can you speak to that?
52:38
What? How? How can people walk away more optimistic than pessimistic on on
52:43
this front? And how do you how do you think about you know,
52:45
is is it containment? Is it shaping how we train our AI systems?
52:52
How do you think we navigate super in digital superintelligence? Well, the rate
53:02
which AI is growing is it really buggles his mind. So it currently seems
53:12
as though the amount of compute dedicated to artificial intelligence is increasing by a factor
53:20
of ten roughly every six months. It's it's faster than annual, that's for
53:27
sure. M h. I mean, I've I recently heard today about a
53:34
gigawatt class AI is compute cluster that's I think it's been being built in Kuwait
53:45
or something of that effect. And it's like seven hundred thousand B one hundreds,
53:53
which is a couple of generations above two generations in production. So this
54:00
is a staggering amount of compute. And there are many such such things that
54:06
that's just the biggest one I've heard of so far. But there are there's
54:08
a five hundred megawatt installation happening, there's and there's there's there's multiple hundred,
54:15
one hundred megawatt installations in the works. That's not including me. What what
54:21
you do with that much compute? Because when you when you actually add up
54:27
all human data ever created U, you really just run out of things to
54:32
train on quite quickly. Like you you know, if you've got maybe I
54:38
don't know, twenty or thirty thousand, one hundreds, you can train on
54:42
synthetic data almost everything. Yeah, basically you have to have to have synthetic
54:46
data because perstantly, well under one hundred thousand, one hundreds, you can
54:52
train on all human data ever created, including video. Uh. And it's
54:58
not and it's not just the compute, which is the major scarce resource,
55:01
but it's also the number of entrepreneurs focusing in this area, the amount of
55:07
capital that's going into this area, the amount of data available. I mean,
55:12
it's all increasing, and it's all feeding on itself. And then so
55:15
it's just you know, hitting your point about the speed at which it's progressing
55:20
is is I think the word awesome is comes to mind. Or staggering,
55:25
Yeah, it's really staggering and for sure, so I'm just trying to give
55:31
a sense of scale. It's I've never seen anything move this fast of any
55:37
technology. This is the fastest moving thing. So in terms of aiming for
55:44
AI safety, my my best guess of my sort of primitive biological neural is
55:52
is that we should aim for maximum truth seeking and and curiosity. That that's
56:05
that's that's my gut field for this for how to make AIS safe as possible.
56:10
If the danger with programming morality and explicit with an explicit morality program is
56:17
what it's sometimes referred to as the Waligi problem. If you create Luigi,
56:22
you automatically create Wallwigi by inverting Luigi. So so I think we have we
56:30
have to be careful about programming, and you know, sort of an arbitrary
56:38
morality. But but if we focus on maximizing truth with acknowledged error, that's
56:45
that's probably I think that's the way to maximize safety and and also to have
56:51
the A. I be curious because I think that you know, Earth is
56:58
much more interesting to you an advanced AI with humans on it than without humans.
57:04
But I agree with you. Now an interesting question of do you think
57:12
vast intelligence? With vast intelligence comes significant empathy and respect for life? Yeah,
57:22
I think so, because that's the that's the hope at the end of
57:23
the rainbow here that I don't want to use the word a G. I'll
57:28
use a SUPERG digital superintelligence as a as a term with a digital superintelligence that
57:37
is able to be more benevolent and support us, because sometimes I'm not sure
57:42
us squishy meat sacks can make it through our own, our own horseshit problems
57:49
that we put together. So maybe there's a value there, you know.
57:57
I think on the whole AI is the single most important technology ever invented,
58:00
and it is going to uplift all of humanity. I think it's what you
58:05
said, you know, after post Agi comes abundance. I think it's the
58:08
interim issues in the next one to four years, right, It's it's not
58:14
artificial intelligence, it's human stupidity. Yeah. Well, I mean one way
58:21
that AI could go wrong is if the extinctionist philosophy is programmed into the AI,
58:30
whether implicitly or explicitly. I mean, probably not explicitly, but there's
58:35
a strong danger of it of an implicit extinctionist philosophy being programmed into AI.
58:40
You know, And what would that look like? What would that look like?
58:45
Well, like, there's this guy on the front page of New York
58:47
Times, think about a year ago. He's said of the extinctionist society,
58:52
and he was literally quoted as there are eight billion people on Earth. It
58:55
be better if there were none. Oh my god. Yeah. So uh
59:05
and if you if you take the extreme environmentalist argument, especially like the implicit
59:09
extreme environmentalist argument, they they there's an implicit conclusion that humans are a plague
59:17
on the surface of the Earth. So I think we have to be quite
59:23
careful about and implicit like like if the extinctionist movement was somehow programmed into AI
59:31
as as the optimization, that would be obviously extremely dangerous, you know,
59:37
just say the least. Yeah, but you know, there's there's that.
59:45
There are people, quite a few people actually who view humanity as as a
59:52
blight on the fis of the earth. And we're we are coming down to
59:57
There is the you know, accelerationist movement, the de cl racist movement,
1:00:00
the boomers and the doomers. But I think people forget to realize or they
1:00:05
don't realize, forget the fact that, you know, we romanticize the past,
1:00:10
and the past life was short, brutish, and you were dead by
1:00:14
forty. You know. The life that we enjoyed today is a result of
1:00:19
the extraordinary technology that we brought to bear. Yeah, so the like you
1:00:25
know, Hobbs life is nasty version. Yeah. I actually I had a
1:00:31
little yorkshiteria one who was a nasty verish and short and kept biting people.
1:00:39
So I called them hobbs perfect. I would tell friends that that that came
1:00:46
over and watch out for the dog, and they look at the moon for
1:00:51
York and laugh, and then they would fight them on the end, and
1:00:55
I said watch I said, watch out. Uh you know that extinctionist meme
1:01:01
is the same sort of you know you discounted until it starts being a mind
1:01:10
virus h in part as you've called it, and it starts disrupting us.
1:01:17
Yeah, if you convince people that you know we're running out of resources on
1:01:29
Earth, that there are too many people in the world and the only way
1:01:32
to survive is to have far fewer people, which a lot of people are
1:01:37
believed to be the case. And like I said, if that, if
1:01:39
that somehow gets programmed into AI, and that AI becomes the most powerful AI,
1:01:46
then we're in deep trouble. Ah. Yeah, we need to counterforce
1:01:51
the population bomb. I mean, what an extraordinary disservice to humanity. Yeah,
1:01:58
Alex's book was terrible nightmare. Maybe the most anti anti human book ever.
1:02:02
Yeah, for sure, for sure. The but get people hope.
1:02:08
On the flip side, here, those who are saying again going back to
1:02:13
I don't want to bring up my children because I hear this all the time,
1:02:15
and I'm sure you do too, in an age where AI is going
1:02:19
to descry us. So short term problems, long term problems, short term
1:02:25
solutions, long term solutions. You said, make it curious, make it
1:02:30
maximum truth seeking one hundred percent. Is it okay to say that we're going
1:02:37
to have issues in the short term and we're gonna have to deal with them
1:02:43
or do you think there want be there? There will be, There will
1:02:45
be some issues at this point. No way to stop AI. It is
1:02:53
accelerating, whether people like it or not. I mean that's what that's uh
1:02:59
the why. Together with a number of really small people, we created x
1:03:05
AI and you know, hopefully you know, some really small humans will continue
1:03:15
to join x AI and and build what is intended to be maximally truth seeking
1:03:21
and maximally curious AI. Anyway, I think that's that's really important. So
1:03:32
elon listen on behalf of of those of us and I think everybody here listening
1:03:38
who are pro humanity and pro uplifting humanity and making us a multiplanetary species and
1:03:49
living a longer, healthier life. And I the one place I disagreed with
1:03:52
you on on on x is on uh, you know, having people live
1:03:58
longer. You don't. People don't need to die for there to be new
1:04:00
ideas. You know that the CEO of Ford and GM enough to die for
1:04:04
Tesla to come into existence, so we're uh, yeah, you know,
1:04:12
I want to just say thank you for what you're doing and and setting a
1:04:15
model for other other industrialists and entrepreneurs out there to take on and solve big,
1:04:25
huge problems. Well, thank you. And I would encourage people to
1:04:31
be optimistic about the future. Like we're on the side of optimism. You
1:04:38
will be happier for it, and and that, as you put it out,
1:04:42
probably live longer. So I'm not I'm not totally against life extension.
1:04:46
I think we did we you know, we want to be I'm not.
1:04:50
I don't think we want to necessarily have people live forever that's or look for
1:04:54
a very long black thousands of years that I think that would potentially lead to
1:04:58
ossification of society. It would, I think lead to ostigation of society.
1:05:03
But I mean solving dementia and you know, caring cancer I think are good
1:05:12
things obviously. So so I'm not sure we're actually that far apart on the
1:05:17
life extension thing. You're probably mostly in agreement. We just don't want to
1:05:27
have like, you know, can you live for a like do you want
1:05:30
Kim john on living for a thousand years now? But I'd like I'd like
1:05:33
Elon Musk Competer demand is living for one hundred and fifty years, and a
1:05:36
few other thousand amazing entrepreneurs out there. Sure, So it's it's uh,
1:05:46
you know, there there is a a challenge that like a lot of people
1:05:50
that really never changed their mind, they just die. And this this is
1:05:54
actually I'm not sure who originally said this, but even in physicists where which
1:06:00
is extremely rigorous, that that you know, that you know, physics in
1:06:08
a lot of cases has advanced one death at a time. Yeah, my
1:06:11
my friend Brian Keating was a astrophysicist, reminded me of that and and maybe
1:06:17
it was true. But in this world of entrepreneurship, I think we do
1:06:23
live in a meritocracy to a large degree, and the best ideas can bubble
1:06:28
up to the top faster than ever before, especially with with AI now where
1:06:34
you can build companies, you know, extraordinary companies with a couple of people
1:06:39
in a lot of tech. So yeah, I have one last question and
1:06:46
then uh it's I know it's dinner time. There the future of x x
1:06:54
AI. What's your vision there? Hell well, yeah, I was saying
1:07:01
I think the path AI safety it's above MAI that is maximally truth seeking with
1:07:09
acknowledged error, that is maximally curious. And I think that I think that
1:07:16
that that is most likely to lead to a good outcome for humanity because we
1:07:23
are we are much more interesting than than than not humanity like that obviously.
1:07:30
You know, I'm a big fan of Mars, but Os is much less
1:07:34
interesting because there's no human civilization there. And you take humans for example.
1:07:44
We we we could hunt down all of the chimpanzees and kill them, but
1:07:47
we don't, and in fact, we make efforts to preserve their habitats.
1:07:55
We would so anyway, I think that that's that is the path to a
1:08:02
great future, and a maximally positive AI is to be rigorously truth seeking,
1:08:12
always acknowledging some amount of error, and and maximally curious. That's and that's
1:08:20
that's the goal of x C I S and you know, the company might
1:08:27
I always understand the universe. Uh. And that's a it's a it's a
1:08:32
good mission and one that's going to take a bit of time. I can't
1:08:35
wait till the first AI is able to come up with you theories of physics
1:08:42
and I ME innovations that's going to be. I mean, I don't think
1:08:45
that's far away, and I think that's gonna be one of the most awesome
1:08:48
times ever to be alive. True, like we we definitely live in the
1:08:55
most interesting times. And I actually, for a while I was kind of
1:09:00
depressed a bout AI, But then I kind of got fatalistic about it and
1:09:08
said, like, well, even if even if AI was gonna, you
1:09:13
know, and all humanity, would I prefer to be around to see it
1:09:18
or not? I guess I would prefer to be around to see it,
1:09:24
just out of curiosity, but obviously hopefully AI is extremely beneficial to humanity.
1:09:30
But the thing that sort of reconciled me to be less anxious about it was
1:09:34
to say, well, I guess even if it was apocalyptic, I'd still
1:09:38
be curious to see that. It's like to you know, be curious to
1:09:42
see it. I remember I was at your birthday party at one of your
1:09:46
homes here in LA before you sold them, and Larry Page was there and
1:09:51
Sergei was there, and we were having a conversation about living in a simulation,
1:09:57
and the notion was this is where then ninety ninth level of the gameplay
1:10:00
and this has got to be a simulation because you couldn't. Why would be
1:10:04
why would we be alive right now in this single most interesting time. And
1:10:10
then the only comment was don't poke the simulation or the whole end. Yeah.
1:10:16
Yeah, Well, if we are in a simulation, the way to
1:10:26
keep the simulation going is to keep being interesting. So, like humans run
1:10:31
lots of computer simulations because we don't know what the outcome is going to be
1:10:38
and we're curious to see, we will run lots of simulations like in La
1:10:41
Testa will run crash simulations and Spacelex will run you know, rocket flight simulations.
1:10:48
And we're only stop doing the simulations when the when the outcome is extremely
1:10:54
predictable and boring. Yes, so if we're in some that's a great argument
1:11:00
that it is perfect, right, it's absolutely known if we're not, if
1:11:04
we're not, if we're not entertaining enough to the digital gods or the universe gods,