Latest / Money Grows on Trees / #362 - Can Dividends Pay More Than Property?

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#362 - Can Dividends Pay More Than Property? · Money Grows on Trees

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Most people assume property is always better with
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an income play, but the numbers say otherwise. See, the property crowd
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will tell you that rent's reliable, tangible, and real, and
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they're wrong. But the reality is, when you actually compare dividend income against
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rental income on the same dollar invested, the answer is not as clear as
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either side will admit. And in 2026, the budget,
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especially in Australia, changed the tax treatment of property forever,
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and the gap shifted. I'm Lloyd J. Ross, second figure investor entrepreneur, and
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I've helped thousands of everyday Australians, Americans, New Zealanders, and Canadians, and
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those from the UK get out of debt and build real wealth. And in this video, I'm gonna
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show you my exact dividend portfolio and how its income compares
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to property with the same capital and the honest verdict on
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which one actually pays more. Okay, so
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the most important thing to understand is how each one of these asset
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types generates income. So let's start with property. Everybody
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knows, I think everybody knows, whether you're a renter or
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you're owning, property works in this manner. the
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property is built, the owner purchases it and either
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lives in there, in which case they don't pay rent, they might repay a mortgage. But
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if it's an investment, which we'll talk about in this episode, they
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will buy the property and they'll lease it out. Now, For
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the purpose of this exercise, I'm going to talk about residential
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property because the reality is there's industrial property, there's commercial office property,
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and there's obviously retail property. They're the other sort of uses of
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property, there's storage, et cetera. And there's multiple ways you make money in
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property. You can development, buy and flip, and add equity.
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You can rezone, you can start a title and resell. There's
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lots of different ways. But for the sake of this exercise, we talk about residential property.
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So you buy a property, residential house or apartment, and
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you put a tenant in there and the tenant rents the house out. It's probably one of the oldest
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ways to make money ever, right? Being a landlord. And
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so when you have, let's say a million dollar
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property, house or apartment, and we could probably go with apartments because
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I think they're a bit more popular. People think that you just buy the apartment and
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the tenant goes in there and the money comes to your account and that's it. And
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that's just not true. And for those of you who have ever owned property
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before, you'll know that's not true. It's not as easy as that. And
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you do see a lot of instances where people have bought houses on
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that premise or apartments on that premise only to find out
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sadly that it's not what it was all made up to be. So
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let's say you buy a million dollar apartment, the amount that you'd expect to
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generate from a rental return is called the rental yield, and
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it's typically around about 5% of purchase price. So if we
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look at 5% of a million dollar property, 5% of
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a million is $50,000. So you'd anticipate that property would pull in
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just under a thousand a week. And by all accounts, that's probably still accurate in
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some markets. Although in major markets like Sydney, Hong Kong,
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New York, and so forth, it may not be the case. Certainly in
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Sydney and some parts of even where I live in the Gold Coast here in Australia, it's
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more like 4% or 4.5%. And sometimes yields
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have even been as low as 3.5% at the peak of the boom. But now
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it's starting to adjust. Prices are falling and rents are going
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up a little bit, but they're actually not going up as drastically as what people think. And
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so we've had the situation where a million dollar property should be pulling in
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50 grand a year, right? At 5% yields. So just under $1,000 a
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week. So I'll call it 950. And if I look at our apartment too, where we live, it's
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probably around about that. So that's pretty standard,
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okay? But have a look at it from an owner's standpoint. If
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you've got a million dollar property, it's pulling in 9.50 a week in
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rent, and you have it as an investment, with rates, insurance,
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body corporate, you're gonna have around about $200 come
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9.50 a week times 52 weeks, yeah, call it roughly 50 grand, it's about
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5% yield. But if we've got 7.50 after those operating costs,
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then we've got $39,000 a year, so you're
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basically down a good $10,000, right? And
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divided by a million, you have to do it 3.9%. So
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we've now got a bit of a net yield of 3.9%, but it's not over yet.
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Rental income in Australia is fully taxed.
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Now, I'm not gonna get into the negative gearing argument, because it's only if the property is negatively geared.
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I'm just gonna assume that the property is purchased outright with cash. I'm
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gonna compare apples to apples in the sense of if you had a million dollars cash,
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would you buy a property investment to generate income, or would you buy
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shares? And that's what I'm comparing here today. So we'll do, at $39,000 a
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year income, you're gonna get taxed full freight. Now, if your
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average tax rate is, say, 35%, you're gonna have only 65% of that left over. So
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all of a sudden after tax, you're gonna have $25,350 left.
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Now there might be some depreciation benefits in there. You might
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have some obviously deduction from your body corporate fees and rates and
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sorry, not rates and insurance, et cetera. But you're going to have
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some tax back, some depreciation. blah, blah, blah.
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Let's just say for the sake of this, you're going to get $4,000 back in tax. The
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after-tax and after-cost yield
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on a property of $1,000,000 is $29,350 a year. Now,
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that's not including times where the tenant's not paying. That
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also happens, by the way. And it's not including the dishwasher
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you gotta give them, the whatever else might be included in
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that, the upkeep, the fair wear and tear of certain things that you have to replace, like
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carpets and curtains. So we can take off, for the sake of this, we'll take
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off, I don't know, call it a, worst case, a thousand a year. right?
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It's going to be a lot more than that. Now, this is also not including special levies.
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If the sinking fund in a strata titled apartment complex goes
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to zero because of mismanagement, or the building needs repairs or
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painting or whatever, they will raise a special levy where each owner
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pays a specific amount, a levy, to actually top up the sinking fund
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and pay for the stuff. Now, it might be that there's a sinking fund
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or a special levy within a 10-year period of $10,000. So we can probably
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say over each year, there's another thousand. So take another thousand off the special levies and
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things that need to happen to the building. So now you're at $27,350. And
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of course it can get way worse than that. I know owners that have paid $25,000 to change
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balustrades and balconies and all sorts of different things. So that's a
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pretty fair estimate of the fact if you bought a million-dollar apartment
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as an investment, you will yield in your bank account after
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tax, after operating costs, after even some of those things we can't see, and
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after maybe a couple of times where the tenant's not there, which we haven't really even included. If you get
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a tenant that can't move for six months, it's going to cost you a lot more money than that. But let's just say for
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the argument's sake, it's that. You can see it on my screen. It's $27,350. Now,
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if we divide that by a million, it's an
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after-tax net yield of
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2.73%. See that? 2.73%. Now,
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if inflation is running at five, and real estate is not growing, which
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currently it's not, and I know that over time it does, you're
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losing money on an inflation-adjusted basis if
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you buy a property for cash flow. That's where we are right now. Now, if you've got
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a mortgage on this, and it's 6%, 6.5%, deduct
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6.5%, now you're negative 3.7%. And there's no negative gearing
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benefit anymore. So now you're losing 3.7% a year, not
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including inflation. If we include inflation, you're down 8.7% a
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year. So you're now losing money. So when I say things
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like, I don't buy a property, blah, blah, blah, I'm not just doing it and pulling it out
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of my ass. I'm not doing it just to irritate you, annoy you, and take it different. I'm just doing
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it from the numbers. It just doesn't stack up. It doesn't make sense to
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me. So I'm not running out presently to buy property investments because
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of this number you see on the screen. Does that make sense? Now, you might have
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a different take on that. You might have been someone who bought property fortuitously, because
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by all accounts, it's not necessarily science, because if you
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had have been born in 1890, you would not have the
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ability to skydust your 80% property gains in the last five years. but
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you weren't. You were born in 1983 or 1985, and
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you just happened to be available with some debt to buy a property at the right
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time in history. But that property doesn't rise by 60 to 80% in five
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years under normal circumstances. It only went there because interest rates went to zero, and they
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printed too much money. You're not a genius. It's
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just fortuitous. It's blessed. It's timing. Bit
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of luck. But I don't want to beat you up too much. Well done for you to
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getting a deposit together and well done for you taking a risk. I want to commend it still. But I'm saying
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it's not normal for property to grow at 12% a year, just so
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you know. And now we're finding out that's true. We're finding
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it out. It's like, oh shit, Lloyd's podcast for the last two years, he's
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right. Yes. I'm only saying this stuff because I'm just working from mathematics,
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the universal language of maths. I'm not doing it through emotion.
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Okay. So that's the result before inflation
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if you were to borrow money to buy a property. But again, I'm not suggesting to
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borrow, I'm saying cash. So we can actually add the 6.5% back in their interest
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rate. That's just the interest by the way, it's not including the principal. And that's not including the rates
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that might go up again. Now you're starting to see why people are starting to let go of their properties. Okay,
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2.7% net yield after tax. That's the cash flow in
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your pocket with a million dollar acquired residential property as an
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apartment where I live. Cool, okay. Now
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let's do shares, move to the other side. Million bucks, shares. This is
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interesting. There's a couple of ways to do it. One, we could anticipate you
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buy one share of one company, okay? Now by our accounts, I
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think having a million dollars in one company, depending on what the company is,
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is not such a bad thing either. I've had a million dollars in a
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company before, close to a million, 980,000 in one holding before. So
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it's fine, as long as you know what you're doing. So let's do
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it on this basis. Let's do it on a single share basis. Let's do it
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on a group of shares, so a portfolio you built with individual shares, and
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then let's look at an index fund. Then let's look at different types of index funds
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to see the difference. But what we've got to beat here today to show you categorically that
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more money lands in your pocket from a cash flow standpoint with shares than
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property, is this, and I wanna show you categorically
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that it does, okay, for now. So a million bucks. Now
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let's say that you did some research and you realize that, oh, okay, that's
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interesting. There's gonna be a 50-year copper undersupply. Fascinating.
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So there's not enough copper mines to be produced for copper to happen, and there's a massive
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AI boom behind this copper price. And copper, by the way, just this
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week hit a record price. So copper's undersupplied. Now,
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who's the world's leading supplier of copper? mining company.
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And if you do a bit of research, you'll find that it's BHP, a
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proud Australian company. And if you look at BHP in
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detail, you'll notice that over 50% of their profits now come
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from copper. because they've obviously seen
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the opportunity. So it's got, it's primarily iron ore, which
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has historically been its main income driver. Now 50% is
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copper. So it's the world leading copper supplier. It's
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got tenements and leases in mines for copper mines that can't be easily
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replaced. Like in the next 20 years, not many are gonna be done. Like you can't, you can't pull it
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out of your ass. And they know that. And so now they're also being
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able to fund that copper. mine development and
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expansion through their cash flow without tapping any more
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capital, without raising capital through share purchase, without taking
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on debt. It's actually fully funded with their copper earnings. Now,
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if you're understanding that, you'll see why BHP ran up 35, I
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think it's up, what is it? It might be more, a huge run
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up this year. I think it's even 40%, some massive number. And it's
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just gone through the roof this year because people understand the copper story. Now,
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I believe the copper story's got a long way to run. So let's
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say it's BHP. I think well-diversified company,
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can't be disrupted by AI. They're excellent capital allocators. They haven't always
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been, but now they are. And it's in an area that's going to be booned by
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the AI boom. It's going to be a beneficiary of the AI boom,
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because a lot of copper is used in war. It's used in
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AI. It's used in power, like flipping grids, data centers. So let's
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say that. Now, right now, currently, the dividend yield and BHP with
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its current dividend payments. And again, not all dividend payments are
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always going to be the same because it does change and never flow with the business. But generally, BHP
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has been a good dividend payer and it seldom stops
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paying a dividend and they tend to grow their dividend with their earnings. So,
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0.04 is the dividend. That's $40,000. Now
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here's what's fascinating. If you were just to buy BHP as an example,
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One, diversified, not going to be disrupted, continue to grow and will
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grow in value. Now it's already grown and will probably continue to grow in value over the next
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12, 18, 5 years, 20 years, whatever. In fact, I did some sums yesterday. I believe that
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we could see it 4x in the next 20 years. So
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there you go, with the COP undersupply. So it's going to grow. Now I can't say the same thing
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for property. I don't know what property is going to do in the next 10 years. It doesn't look like it's going to grow much if rates are going
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up. By all accounts of Redscope, it doesn't impact share prices too,
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but I think the corporate story will hold. So this is probably gonna grow and producing up,
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but let's just look at the cashflow. $40,000 if the
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dividends do not grow from here, if the dividend stays put, okay? Now
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I think it will grow, but if it stays put, 40,000. Now what's fascinating about shares
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and companies is that in Australia specifically, it's
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different in America. In Australia, there's a
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taxation ruling where the government's already
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taxed the companies their income tax on
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their profits. So when they pay their dividends, they pay them with after-tax
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dollars that they've actually got sitting there. So when they pay that 40,000, they've
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already paid the tax on it. Now, if you're an Australian citizen and you receive that,
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whether you receive it in your personal name or a company, the shares are deemed to
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be what's called fully franked, which means you don't pay
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tax on them again up to a marginal rate
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of 30%. So if you have a
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base rate entity like a company, an operating company that's receiving this dividend and
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it's paying 25%, you actually get a tax refund. The ATA will pay you for getting
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these dividends, which is fascinating. But let's just do it on a holding company rate of
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30% or a personal average tax rate of 30%. If
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you receive that $40,000 and that's your average tax rate, you
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will not pay any tax on that. Does this make sense? So the
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whole hog goes in there to your skyrocket, your
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pocket. Now, what's also cool about companies is
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there's no body corporate fees, there's no special levies, there's no
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sinking fund, there's no rates, there's no insurance, and there's no
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tenancy out of play, and there's no dishwashers, and there's no upkeep, and there's
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no fair warranty. None. And there's no
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tax to pay on that up to 30% marginal rate. So that whole amount of money goes in your pocket. So
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if we divide that by a million, if you put the position in there, it's
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4%. So property, after tax, after cost, 2.7. Shares
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and BHP, four. I rest my case, your honor. Mathematically,
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shares do better from cash flow standpoint. But what if we were to
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play around this a little bit and say, okay, what if the objective was
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income? So what if the objective was, what if we just positioned our portfolio within
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reason maximum, because you can't go too high on the dividend yield, because quite
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often a high dividend yield dictates too that the dividend is going to fall and the
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values of the shares are falling because they're going to hit an earnings challenge. Their
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profits will be challenged. So it's not always the higher the dividend, the better. But if you look at
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companies like, let's look at Nick Scully Furniture, it's about 5%. Pretty
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good company, small, smaller company. Let's look at Fortescue Metals,
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six and a half percent. They got a big iron ore business. Let's
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look at, like you could probably do, I don't want to reach into that in a minute, but we'll
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do BHP, that's three stocks. We might do, what else
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are we paying? Oh, what's it called? McMillan, which is actually paying
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5%, which is actually like a novated lease company. Really interesting
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company, actually. It's paying good dividend. And it's progressive and
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it's good. What else is there? There's probably a nut like A
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and Z bank. Let's go there. I think they're paying. God, what are they paying? I
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don't wanna get, can I just check? I don't wanna give you the wrong data.
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And someone say in the comments, it's not paying that. That's how
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I imagine, when haters come and say things, that's the voice I can
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use. Okay, let's have a look here. 4.39, okay,
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ANZ Bank, cool. So that's five. I think Bank of Queensland, chuck
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that in there too, because it was pretty high dividend. I don't want you to
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buy companies that are gonna be crap though. Like BOQ, let's just have
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a look. Because BOQ pays good dividend, but it's probably grown nowhere in
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the last, Oh, that's not too bad. Oh, it's down 30% in five years. We
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might avoid that. Let's do... What's another good domain? JB
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Hi-Fi, we've done that one. I'm gonna do Telstra, what's another good, or
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store, Aussie store, whatever, doesn't matter, let's just do them. So we've got a bank, we've
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got a miner, we've got furniture, we've got electronics,
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and I'm not suggesting the dividend's gonna stay exactly this, but they're reasonable, right? And
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we've got a no bad lease company and administrator, so we'll just do either of those five.
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So we've got 4.97, so for the sake of this exercise, we'll call it almost five, okay, good.
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You could generate a portfolio with five or six holdings or more that would
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generate 5%, so all of a sudden, 5% on a million, if you spread it across, you're at
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50,000. Now that's 5% place 2.7. So if we do 5% place 2.7, you
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can see that shares produce almost double the
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amount of actual after-tax After costs,
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net cash flow in your pocket, shares, individual
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shares, beat it by double. Fact. Just quickly, if
16:53
you're ready to take control of your finances but feel stuck on where to start,
16:57
I have a solution. My book, Money Buys Happiness, simplifies
17:00
investing and wealth building with practical steps to help you achieve financial
17:04
peace. Get your copy via the link in the show notes and let's get your
17:08
money working for you. Now back to the episode. But if we do
17:11
an index fund, if you look at a high yield index fund in Australia, I'm not going to
17:14
tell you what the stock ticker code is because I don't give you any advice, but if you do
17:17
the research, you can probably find one that pays, you know, at present time
17:20
between three and a half and five percent. So we'll take the middle number because
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it does change, divided by two times 0.5. It was 0.035 plus
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0.05 divided by two. So
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4.25. So even if you had an index fund that paid a good dividend that holds all
17:35
those companies, you're still going to be way ahead by 0.027 by
17:39
1.55% on shares in your back pocket. And that's
17:43
fully diversified. And you're going to get growth probably think
17:46
maybe not too much, but you get some. So if we add some growth of even 3%, it's probably
17:50
going to be better than property, you're going to be ahead. Now, if inflation's at
17:53
5%, like I said, at least you're not losing heaps. You're squared out. So you're maintaining
17:57
and holding your wealth. Now, if you look at an investment, say, in America
18:01
or on the New York Stock Exchange, like the S&P 500, its dividend
18:04
is 1%. And you've got to pay tax on that after. So you're going to end up with, say,
18:09
0.7 of a percent of income. Now in a million bucks, that's not
18:12
much. What is it? $7,000 next to nothing. So
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you're not going to make a ton of money after tax after costs in an index fund
18:20
in America, but you are going to generate tremendous
18:23
growth. I think in the S&P 500 in the last 10 years produced 14% returns. That
18:29
is just 140,000 a year compounded. If you, if
18:32
it's to repeat those returns the next 10 years, which who knows with AI, what's
18:35
happening, who knows, but a hundred, that's pretty good. So you. With an international
18:39
fund like that shares in the United States, you're going to have more
18:42
growth, but there's other stocks like ETF portfolios, not
18:46
to go into much detail, but there's others that sell covered calls over
18:50
the NASDAQ that JP Morgan has. And there's others that have
18:53
like store what dividend pays in their ETF, like Pepsi and
18:57
McDonald's. So you can get three and a half percent in
19:00
some American funds too, but you're not going to have the tax benefit. So if you're watching this
19:03
as an Australian, it's so interesting right now to think based
19:07
on the budget changes and based on negative gearing, changing property, and
19:10
based on the fact that property's falling and rent's going down, it's, oh my God, we went through this massive, what
19:13
do you do now? I'm like, holy, like Australian shares,
19:18
particularly the types that are going to do well in the next five, 10, 20 years.
19:21
It's very compelling, which is why I positioned the portfolio to take that on. So
19:25
currently in my portfolio, I've actually got a lot of it. By all accounts, incidentally,
19:29
I actually have a lot in term deposit at the minute because term deposit producing 5%. I know
19:33
interest rate is going to go up again, so I might eventually
19:36
get 5.5%. Risk-free. There is a risk to some extent for a term
19:39
deposit because it's a bank, but I don't think there's going to be bank runs. They're very conservatively run banks.
19:43
But again, the government guarantees. It's quite close to risk-free,
19:47
over 5%. Risk-free, even after tax, 3.5% in
19:50
my pocket, still better than property, and it's completely different
19:54
risk profile, and it takes no effort. So some of it's there, and then half
19:58
of it's in oil stocks, rail, and copper, and
20:02
I'm producing 3.7% dividend yield from
20:05
the oil, but I gotta pay tax, so .037, because it's
20:09
American. So I'm probably left with 2.6, and
20:13
the rail's paying about two. After tax, I'm left with
20:19
.7. 1.4. So I think all in all, my portfolio is probably bringing in 3% on
20:23
that side, which is fine. It's still better than
20:26
property because I don't have to manage it all, even after tax.
20:30
That's the way that sits. And then the term deposit is 0.05. So if I just split it,
20:35
0.3 times 0.5, I'm at a net yield. We
20:38
could probably take a little bit more because of the tax of the term deposit. we're at a net yield
20:41
of probably three and a half. So I'm still a whole percentage point ahead
20:46
of property with no challenges, like
20:49
no administrative stuff. But if I was
20:52
building, if I was positioned for pure income in my pocket, of
20:56
course I wouldn't hold international stocks. I'd hold Australian companies, paying
21:00
a fully frank dividend, and I'd hold a basket of stocks that
21:03
were paying three to four to five to 6%, hold
21:06
a variety, probably get the yield to five. And my, let's say for
21:09
example, $3 million invested, that $3 million would bring
21:12
in about $150,000 a year of untaxable income. Pretty
21:15
good. You can retire in time. You can live off that, and you're done.
21:19
If you wanted to retire, you could. But retirement's not
21:22
in my, I'm not interested. We're only starting. In
21:26
the next 20 years, it's going to be so fun. But I wanted
21:29
to do this exercise with you so you can see that I'm
21:33
not just making this up, which one does better. You can see from this
21:36
episode that shares clearly
21:39
win this. They win. Is there opportunities where
21:44
rent can go up in properties? Yeah, of course, and it increases the yield. But is
21:47
there chances where dividends can also go up? Absolutely. They can pay special
21:51
dividends with blight earnings reports. You can get paid a lot in
21:54
dividends too, and that will rise. I prefer shares because
21:57
more of the money ends up in my pocket and it takes less effort. And
22:01
it's not concentrated. It's spread across and diversified. Where if I buy one
22:04
house, it's fully concentrated in one street, one suburb, one type, and
22:08
it's there. And if I go through like a 10-year period where it's like rent's not
22:11
going, I'm not growing, I just don't like it. And especially the
22:14
end of a big boom. So would I be interested in property yields? Yeah,
22:19
10%. I would be. And that's possible too. So if I see that happening, I might
22:22
switch my strategies. But until that happens, you know
22:25
where I stand. So I hope that makes sense. I hope you've enjoyed that. And you can see categorically
22:29
that I prefer shares because of that. And I've
22:32
given you the facts there. If you agree with me, great. If you don't pop it
22:35
in the comments anyway, let's have a conversation about it. But if you're someone who wants to learn
22:38
more about shares, because you see that, oh my God, I didn't know you could
22:41
get tax-free income. And I didn't know you didn't know these things. This
22:45
is just because it's a lack of education. So if you want to get more educated, what I would encourage
22:48
you to do is go back a few episodes. I did this masterclass
22:52
called Shares Masterclass, not meant for the public, which it wasn't. And
22:55
I firmly, I'm obviously biased, but I firmly believe it's the greatest piece
22:59
of content we've actually put out on the show. And if you watch that, it's
23:02
going to be an absolute masterclass in shares. I want you to watch it, skill
23:05
up, level up. So you do know, so you've got options. So it's not just like people
23:09
that get into profit, they didn't do it because they had no other idea. But get the idea, go
23:12
watch the masterclass, and of course, if you want to get educated with all things money,
23:16
grab our book, Money Buys Happiness. It's the best place to start. Go
23:19
to moneybuyshappinessbook.com, but I'll put the link in the show
23:23
notes below. Grab that book, start it off, and let's