Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Absolute Wildest | NFL Wild Card Weekend Recap
Transcript
- 0:09Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings.
- 0:12Speaker 2: We're also on the Action Hour podcast feed.
- 0:15Speaker 1: If you are listening to us there, it is a
- 0:17Speaker 1: crossover episode wherever you're listening or watching. Thank you for
- 0:20Speaker 1: tuning in. I'm your host, Devin Abrams and I am
- 0:22Speaker 1: joined by the one and only Stucky for our NFL
- 0:25Speaker 1: recap show for Wildcard weekend. Just a ridiculous, ridiculous weekend
- 0:30Speaker 1: of five great games. Obviously, still have Houston and Pittsburgh
- 0:33Speaker 1: coming up on Monday night, and we will touch on that.
- 0:35Speaker 2: A little bit later.
- 0:37Speaker 1: We also have Brandon Anderson's hot read before we get
- 0:40Speaker 1: out of here, so.
- 0:40Speaker 2: We'll get his opinion too.
- 0:42Speaker 1: But before we get started, I will just give you
- 0:44Speaker 1: exactly what I just tweeted out, which is we see
- 0:47Speaker 1: some opening lines for the Divisional Round and it looks
- 0:50Speaker 1: like Bill's Broncos kind of going a little bit between.
- 0:53Speaker 2: I see the Bill's favorite in some of those spots.
- 0:56Speaker 1: If they were to close as a favorite in Denver,
- 1:00Speaker 1: it would be the fourth time in the last forty
- 1:02Speaker 1: years we had seen a Divisional round team off of
- 1:05Speaker 1: a buy at.
- 1:06Speaker 2: Home close as an underdog. And I can read it
- 1:09Speaker 2: right now the last would have been.
- 1:10Speaker 1: The Eagles in twenty eighteen against the Falcons, the Niners
- 1:13Speaker 1: in twenty twelve, and the Saints and then the Panthers
- 1:16Speaker 1: ninety six ninety seven, and in all three of those positions,
- 1:20Speaker 1: the home team came away with the win. So we
- 1:22Speaker 1: will see kind of how the market puts together the
- 1:27Speaker 1: spread in that one over the next week. But aside
- 1:30Speaker 1: from that stuck, before we get into Chargers Patriots.
- 1:33Speaker 2: What a weekend, man, what's your thoughts on everything?
- 1:36Speaker 3: Yeah? Crazy weekend. I got rinsed. Sadly, I had I
- 1:41Speaker 3: went one in four, some bad calls and some bad breaks.
- 1:45Speaker 3: I mean I had the Packers as a dog, which
- 1:47Speaker 3: was which was something I thought I was going to
- 1:50Speaker 3: push at worst. Yeah, after at the end, but the
- 1:55Speaker 3: missed deck, two miss field goals and missed extra point.
- 1:57Speaker 3: The two point conversion to play at the game was
- 1:59Speaker 3: the fourth and eight that Caleb got. If he doesn't
- 2:02Speaker 3: convert that fourth and eighth, the game is over. They
- 2:04Speaker 3: were down two possessions at the time they scored get
- 2:07Speaker 3: the two point conversion, and yeah, I mean McManus was
- 2:11Speaker 3: a disaster for them. But credit to the Bears. They
- 2:14Speaker 3: were this second team in NFL history to score twenty
- 2:17Speaker 3: five plus points in the fourth quarter or overtime of
- 2:20Speaker 3: a playoff game to overcome a fifteen plus point deficit.
- 2:23Speaker 3: It was them and the Patriots and the Super Bowl
- 2:25Speaker 3: against the Falcons. I lost money on both Patriots Falcons.
- 2:30Speaker 3: One of my biggest pets of all ever that I
- 2:32Speaker 3: that I lost. So that was I mean, the Bears
- 2:35Speaker 3: outscored in twenty five to six in the fourth quarter.
- 2:38Speaker 3: That was just the Bears games all year. It was
- 2:41Speaker 3: just it was like a micro cosm of the Bears
- 2:44Speaker 3: season in one game. And then the Packers in a
- 2:47Speaker 3: sense too with some of the losses they suffered. But
- 2:50Speaker 3: the Bears, they're never dead and they found a way.
- 2:55Speaker 3: But like the McManus kicks were so big because even
- 2:57Speaker 3: if you make like you make the extra point, can
- 3:00Speaker 3: kick the field goal at the end, you know, the
- 3:02Speaker 3: field goals earlier in the game. So, uh yeah, that
- 3:05Speaker 3: was just an incredible game, by the way, the most
- 3:07Speaker 3: lead changes we've ever seen in a single round of
- 3:10Speaker 3: the postseason already we still have one game to go.
- 3:13Speaker 3: Uh that was I mean the first three, the first
- 3:16Speaker 3: three games that we saw the winner was trailing with
- 3:21Speaker 3: two minutes to go. So yeah, just wild games. And
- 3:25Speaker 3: look in the playoffs when it's bet when it comes
- 3:27Speaker 3: to betting, or you know, just whoever wins these games.
- 3:31Speaker 3: Out right, the margins are thin, especially this year. Everything
- 3:33Speaker 3: is so wide open that you like go back. I
- 3:37Speaker 3: also had that one of the other bad breaks of that,
- 3:39Speaker 3: I had the Jags first half, so Lawrence's thigh goes
- 3:44Speaker 3: down at you know, the six. They get no points
- 3:47Speaker 3: out of that. And then the miskick at the end
- 3:50Speaker 3: of the first half by an all Pro kicker. That
- 3:53Speaker 3: kick was massive, obviously, I mean the game was a
- 3:56Speaker 3: three point game, but those things, those little things are
- 4:00Speaker 3: so magnified in the playoffs. So yeah, I thought any
- 4:05Speaker 3: of the games could have went anyway. The Panthers were
- 4:09Speaker 3: super surprising. I did not expect their offense to look
- 4:12Speaker 3: that well. Ide under that it was a terrible call.
- 4:15Speaker 3: And then my worst call week had is I had
- 4:16Speaker 3: the Chargers. I mean, the Patriots were dominant in that game.
- 4:21Speaker 2: Drake may was.
- 4:22Speaker 3: I thought he had a pretty bad game. He could
- 4:23Speaker 3: have had like three or four turnovers, but he used
- 4:26Speaker 3: his legs more effectively. He hit the one big throwdown
- 4:29Speaker 3: field and on a side by side basis he looked
- 4:32Speaker 3: like an All Pro compared to Herbert. I mean Herbert.
- 4:35Speaker 4: Look.
- 4:36Speaker 3: I don't like to label these things for small sample
- 4:38Speaker 3: size because it's only been three starts, Like you know,
- 4:40Speaker 3: the playoff Herbert thing, and he had no help. The
- 4:43Speaker 3: offensive line was really poor. I thought the Patriots had
- 4:46Speaker 3: a really good game plan. They just couldn't handle their stunts,
- 4:49Speaker 3: their blitzes, and they were just bringing pressure. But Herbert
- 4:52Speaker 3: also played really poorly. He looked like the first time
- 4:57Speaker 3: starting quarterback. He looked like a rookie. I mean, he
- 4:59Speaker 3: was flow ustered, he missed some opportunities to scramble, he
- 5:02Speaker 3: missed some open throws, and then he was just inaccurate.
- 5:05Speaker 3: I get that he was under pressure and under fire,
- 5:07Speaker 3: especially late in the game once the Patriots built that lead,
- 5:10Speaker 3: but there were some opportunities there. I also thought hardball
- 5:13Speaker 3: the whole staff was extremely disapointed. I thought they got
- 5:16Speaker 3: significantly out coached. You went into that game, by the way,
- 5:19Speaker 3: you had a buy last week, so you basically had
- 5:21Speaker 3: two weeks. They took a buy, they had two weeks
- 5:24Speaker 3: to come up with game plans to make up for
- 5:26Speaker 3: the deficiencies that you knew. You had on the offensive line.
- 5:29Speaker 3: Did you not think that the Patriots were gonna blitz
- 5:31Speaker 3: and stunt and there was? It just seemed like there was.
- 5:35Speaker 3: I don't know what their game plan was. I don't
- 5:37Speaker 3: know what the offensive philosophy going into that game was.
- 5:41Speaker 3: And then you had hardball early on in the game.
- 5:44Speaker 3: He goes for it on fourth and goal at the two,
- 5:45Speaker 3: he doesn't get it, and then he has fourth and
- 5:48Speaker 3: goal at the two again and kicks a field goal.
- 5:49Speaker 3: I hate when coaches do that. You're the underdog on
- 5:52Speaker 3: the road. You were aggressed the first time. If you
- 5:54Speaker 3: thought it was just gonna be a field goal game,
- 5:55Speaker 3: then kick it both times. But he went for the
- 5:57Speaker 3: first time. Don't get scared just because you didn't get it.
- 6:00Speaker 3: But those were two huge sequences. And the Patriots, whose
- 6:03Speaker 3: red zone defense was the worst in the league this year,
- 6:06Speaker 3: Chargers have struggled in the red zone is their offense.
- 6:09Speaker 3: Patriots defense won that battle. I hope they were that
- 6:11Speaker 3: they had the most convincing win of any of the
- 6:14Speaker 3: five games.
- 6:15Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean not hard to have a convincing win
- 6:17Speaker 1: when it felt like it came down to the wire
- 6:19Speaker 1: and all of them this was I thought this was
- 6:20Speaker 1: gonna be a closer game tonight as well.
- 6:22Speaker 2: I mean, three points ain't gonna do it.
- 6:24Speaker 1: And of course you mentioned it, like if you're not
- 6:26Speaker 1: gonna go for it, I mean, if you're gonna go
- 6:27Speaker 1: for it at first, you gotta go for it again.
- 6:29Speaker 2: Absolutely ridiculous, like it's part of your.
- 6:31Speaker 1: Game plan, like you got to figure out one way
- 6:32Speaker 1: or the other, either I need points or I don't.
- 6:34Speaker 2: But you're right now.
- 6:35Speaker 1: I'll go game by game here. We can go very
- 6:37Speaker 1: quickly since obviously we're going over a bunch here. But
- 6:40Speaker 1: New England won the game sixteen thirteen, covered the three
- 6:42Speaker 1: and a half at home total under forty five and
- 6:44Speaker 1: a half. Just simply a dominant performance from New England's defense.
- 6:48Speaker 1: I mean, aside from that, I think, like you said,
- 6:50Speaker 1: May played okay, but everyone's gonna talk about probably two things.
- 6:55Speaker 1: Charger's defense probably played as best as they could think
- 6:57Speaker 1: the offensive line let them down. Herbert hit seven eight
- 7:01Speaker 1: nine times in this game, which was on par for
- 7:03Speaker 1: everything we've seen from them this season. And I mean
- 7:06Speaker 1: just kind of looked like a Rabel defense in this game.
- 7:08Speaker 1: And coming up you've got Houston and Pittsburgh. I think
- 7:11Speaker 1: they'd probably like to see Pittsburgh, would be my guess
- 7:14Speaker 1: based off just you know, trying to see another defense
- 7:17Speaker 1: in that sense. But either way, kind of intriguing though,
- 7:20Speaker 1: any thoughts early on that New England game.
- 7:22Speaker 3: Depending on opponent, I mean, you can kind of have
- 7:26Speaker 3: a similar game plan against sure, right, you have you
- 7:30Speaker 3: have Stroud, who struggles against the Blitz, Rogers who struggles
- 7:34Speaker 3: against pressure to you know, not the most reliable offensive lines.
- 7:40Speaker 3: So you know, I still have questions about this Patriots defense.
- 7:44Speaker 3: It's just like, who have they faced all year? Right, Like, yeah,
- 7:46Speaker 3: they faced Josh Allen got cooked and that's basically the
- 7:49Speaker 3: only and then they did. You have to give him
- 7:51Speaker 3: credit for just completely bottling up Herbert, but again, the
- 7:57Speaker 3: state of that offensive line, But it might be the
- 7:58Speaker 3: same story next week against either one of those opponents.
- 8:03Speaker 1: You know, start, did Christian Gonzalez come back, So that's
- 8:07Speaker 1: a major concern.
- 8:08Speaker 3: Yet he was one of the things, like the Chargers
- 8:12Speaker 3: receivers were non existent. I mean, the best the only
- 8:19Speaker 3: guy that I heard his name the entire besides Herbert
- 8:23Speaker 3: getting hit was Vdal. He like he picked up that fumble,
- 8:27Speaker 3: ran for it. A couple of pat but who who
- 8:30Speaker 3: on the Chargers offense? Did you hear their name called?
- 8:33Speaker 4: Like?
- 8:33Speaker 1: Also, I mean, to be clear, a lot of people
- 8:36Speaker 1: talking about this, but they disguised the O'marian Hampton injury
- 8:39Speaker 1: a lot more than they probably should have, because it
- 8:41Speaker 1: honestly looked like he shouldn't have even played in the game,
- 8:44Speaker 1: and there should have been some designation. And we had
- 8:46Speaker 1: heard about ankle this and that he had a little
- 8:48Speaker 1: bit of a boot on it and basically shouldn't have
- 8:50Speaker 1: been out. There was the reason Herbert was scrambling on
- 8:52Speaker 1: over the place, and obviously Vidal played a ton of snaps.
- 8:55Speaker 1: But all right, let's keep rolling.
- 8:57Speaker 3: Here, Padridson. You want to see the Steelers though, because
- 9:00Speaker 3: that's fair. I mean, look, the Steelers are three point
- 9:02Speaker 3: home dogs against the Texans. The Steelers, you can hit,
- 9:04Speaker 3: you can get explosives on them. That's something the Chargers
- 9:07Speaker 3: do take away, and they did for the most part today.
- 9:10Speaker 3: But yeah, I think that the Patriots should feel good
- 9:14Speaker 3: regardless of who they play. But the Texans, I think
- 9:17Speaker 3: would be a stiffer test defensively.
- 9:20Speaker 2: I agree.
- 9:21Speaker 3: All right, rematch, by the way, rematch earlier the season
- 9:23Speaker 3: with the Patriots the Steelers did go into New England
- 9:26Speaker 3: and beat the Patriots, but the Patriots dominated that game.
- 9:29Speaker 3: It was a typical voodoo Steelers win. I think the
- 9:32Speaker 3: Patriots turned it over five times. The Patriots kept getting
- 9:35Speaker 3: down to like the two and not scoring. It was
- 9:37Speaker 3: pretty crazy. So yeah, I think the Patriots will be
- 9:43Speaker 3: deserve his favorites at home against either.
- 9:46Speaker 2: All right, let's keep rolling here.
- 9:47Speaker 1: Buffalo Jackson will Buffalo wins twenty seven to twenty four,
- 9:50Speaker 1: one and a half point road Dogs total under fifty
- 9:52Speaker 1: one and a half, fifty two and a half.
- 9:53Speaker 2: But right by the hook.
- 9:55Speaker 1: I mean, I think you and I would mention this,
- 9:57Speaker 1: and you obviously had Jack's first half, but Buffalo's probably
- 10:00Speaker 1: started a little bit faster than maybe we had assumed,
- 10:02Speaker 1: even though it included like two punts of fumble, Like,
- 10:05Speaker 1: it wasn't exactly amazing offense in the first half, but
- 10:08Speaker 1: got the job done. But to me, it just turned
- 10:10Speaker 1: into kind of an everything Josh Allen game. A ton
- 10:13Speaker 1: of passing, running all over the place. But the Jags
- 10:16Speaker 1: rush defense did their job, like Cook did nothing. Fifteen
- 10:20Speaker 1: to forty six, just both around three yards per rush.
- 10:23Speaker 1: It was just other things that got them beat. I mean,
- 10:24Speaker 1: Buffalo went nine to sixteen on third down fourth down, definitely,
- 10:28Speaker 1: and you had mentioned it with the Caleb Williams throw,
- 10:31Speaker 1: But that back foot throw from Josh on first and
- 10:34Speaker 1: ten cooks ridiculous.
- 10:36Speaker 2: I mean, that's.
- 10:37Speaker 1: Those two throws like win football games. And when you're
- 10:39Speaker 1: talking about the margins being that thin, But what.
- 10:43Speaker 2: Did you see here? Anything worth note?
- 10:46Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I don't think the Bills in the
- 10:47Speaker 3: first half were great. I mean the Jags were one
- 10:50Speaker 3: and a half yards per played better. The Bills had
- 10:52Speaker 3: one good drive in the whole first half, but it
- 10:54Speaker 3: was a great it was the meaningful drive. It was
- 10:56Speaker 3: ninety four yards after Trevor Lawrence's shin went huge swing
- 11:01Speaker 3: in that game, and then they kicked a fifty yard
- 11:04Speaker 3: field goal off of an interception. But those are the margins, Prater.
- 11:09Speaker 3: Your banged up kicker made a fifty plus yarder and
- 11:11Speaker 3: the Jags all Pro kicker who made twenty in a row,
- 11:14Speaker 3: missed a fifty plus yarder, and then in the red
- 11:16Speaker 3: zone you didn't get your fourth down, came up with
- 11:19Speaker 3: no points. The Bills were amazing on fourth downs, so
- 11:24Speaker 3: I thought, like just watching that game, the Jags were
- 11:28Speaker 3: the better team on a play by play basis, like
- 11:30Speaker 3: they completely stopped the run. They had way more success
- 11:32Speaker 3: running the ball, but the Bills had Josh Allen and
- 11:36Speaker 3: that was ultimately the difference. He played amazing because he
- 11:38Speaker 3: had no help from his run game they usually do.
- 11:41Speaker 3: And then the second half they had to open it
- 11:42Speaker 3: up and asked him to go win it, and he did.
- 11:45Speaker 3: I also thought in the first half the Jags really
- 11:49Speaker 3: really missed Parker Washington. He was he was amazing in
- 11:54Speaker 3: the second half. He was amazing in the second half
- 11:56Speaker 3: of the year, and he missed most of the first half.
- 11:59Speaker 3: I am shot. I mean, it's the playoffs, like there's
- 12:01Speaker 3: I guess there's there's no such thing as concussions for
- 12:04Speaker 3: a lot of teams. I'm shock that he came back
- 12:06Speaker 3: after what I saw. But he was great in the
- 12:09Speaker 3: second half. Did he finished for I think he finished
- 12:12Speaker 3: with over one hundred yards and so they missed him
- 12:16Speaker 3: in the first half. They missed some opportunities. But yeah,
- 12:20Speaker 3: really a coin foot game, like Jaggs, here's where this again,
- 12:25Speaker 3: where the margins are small. I think mcdermomy made a
- 12:27Speaker 3: huge mistake that Josh Allen toush push It's funny that
- 12:32Speaker 3: they used the Toush push so effectively and they were
- 12:36Speaker 3: trying to get it banned in the offseason. I believe
- 12:40Speaker 3: they were one of the teams that voted against it,
- 12:42Speaker 3: and they use it now effectively in the Eagles, like
- 12:45Speaker 3: they went four of like their last eleven on the
- 12:47Speaker 3: touch push. But there's a minute ten left at the
- 12:52Speaker 3: one on first in goal and the Jags have no timeouts.
- 12:58Speaker 3: I one hundred percent of the time, snap and fall down,
- 13:03Speaker 3: or snap and taken me one pc of the time,
- 13:06Speaker 3: and then you have three that you then you run
- 13:09Speaker 3: forty seconds off the clock. There was like a minut five.
- 13:11Speaker 3: Let there would have been twenty seconds left. You have
- 13:16Speaker 3: your timeouts, but you don't even need it. You have
- 13:19Speaker 3: three more Josh Allen tush pushes to get in and
- 13:23Speaker 3: then there's the Jags are done. Instead you went you
- 13:27Speaker 3: scored on the first play. Now it didn't matter because
- 13:29Speaker 3: Lawrence threw a pick. But what you shouldn't base things
- 13:33Speaker 3: off of the results. It's about the process. You could
- 13:36Speaker 3: say like, look, just score that, just get the points.
- 13:40Speaker 3: Things can happen. You can fumble, I get it. But
- 13:43Speaker 3: I think in the long run, the smart move there
- 13:45Speaker 3: was to not score on first down with them not
- 13:47Speaker 3: having any timeouts and then score.
- 13:49Speaker 4: Now.
- 13:49Speaker 3: I didn't bite the bills, but just something worth voting
- 13:52Speaker 3: because we've seen McDermott and final minutes of playoff games
- 13:57Speaker 3: go sideways before. But just an incredible game and it
- 14:00Speaker 3: was Josh and Josh. You have to like Alan got
- 14:04Speaker 3: beat up in that game too. I mean he came
- 14:07Speaker 3: in with an injury to his foot. He you know here,
- 14:11Speaker 3: he had his knee twisted, he got his head hit,
- 14:14Speaker 3: his hand hit on a helmet. I mean he the
- 14:17Speaker 3: Jags defense threw everything at him and he just made
- 14:19Speaker 3: incredible throws with like who at receiver? She cared a
- 14:22Speaker 3: great day, but they kept losing receivers. They've already like
- 14:25Speaker 3: so that was all on Josh Allen had tipped to him.
- 14:29Speaker 1: I mean they saw Mitch Trubisky warming up and Josh
- 14:32Speaker 1: is like, no chance, that's on it.
- 14:34Speaker 3: Josh Allen going to the blue tent in the playoffs
- 14:37Speaker 3: is me rolling my eyes. They just go in there
- 14:39Speaker 3: and like give him a pat on the ass and
- 14:43Speaker 3: tell him to get back out there.
- 14:44Speaker 1: The reason you're right, though about the toush push at
- 14:47Speaker 1: the end is because the Jaguars faked like they were
- 14:50Speaker 1: they wanted him the score correct, but they faked it
- 14:53Speaker 1: like they wanted them to look like they cared about
- 14:55Speaker 1: him scoring. And Liam Cohen even said in postgame he
- 14:58Speaker 1: was like, we let them score.
- 14:59Speaker 2: It was the right movie.
- 15:00Speaker 3: So that's how you know it was the wrong move
- 15:02Speaker 3: to score. The other team is trying to let you score.
- 15:07Speaker 3: So like because of that, you could have like went
- 15:09Speaker 3: to the inch yard line and kneeled it, and the
- 15:14Speaker 3: chances of you scoring again from the inch yard line
- 15:18Speaker 3: with the Josh Allen towysch Bush are way higher than
- 15:22Speaker 3: the Jags with a minute ten being able to go
- 15:26Speaker 3: down the field and kick a fueld goal with a
- 15:27Speaker 3: kicker who has distance from he's made, he's two for
- 15:30Speaker 3: two from sixty seven plus the rest of the NFL
- 15:32Speaker 3: and NFL history he's oh for twenty two. So like
- 15:34Speaker 3: all they had to do, they could get the midfield right.
- 15:37Speaker 3: So you start like a lot of you started the
- 15:38Speaker 3: thirty five fifteen yards you're in range. Now it worked
- 15:41Speaker 3: out for them. I'm just saying I think that was
- 15:42Speaker 3: the wrong move.
- 15:43Speaker 1: Yeah, sometimes it works out and it's just the wrong move.
- 15:45Speaker 2: And that was one of them.
- 15:46Speaker 3: I'll live Jags by the way. He rest of the
- 15:48Speaker 3: see should be happy that they're out. It was unfortunate,
- 15:52Speaker 3: incredible year from Liam Cohen. Easily could have won that game,
- 15:55Speaker 3: easily could have made a run. It was unfortunate that
- 15:57Speaker 3: both of these teams had to play each other home
- 16:00Speaker 3: wild cobekend completely agree.
- 16:03Speaker 1: A lot of flak is going to go to Herbert
- 16:06Speaker 1: based off his performance tonight, But I did look it up.
- 16:08Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence's three playoff starts minus one point six EPA today,
- 16:13Speaker 1: minus three point seven in his last start, and then
- 16:15Speaker 1: plus two point five against Case, but negative completion percentage
- 16:19Speaker 1: over expected in all three starts, qbr under fifty and
- 16:22Speaker 1: all three like, he just hasn't been his best.
- 16:24Speaker 2: In these games. And that kind I mean, he played
- 16:26Speaker 2: alright today.
- 16:27Speaker 1: Maybe you put it on the defense, but Buffalo does
- 16:30Speaker 1: put up what twenty six, twenty seven points in this game,
- 16:33Speaker 1: so probably a stopper more there on the defense right now.
- 16:36Speaker 3: He wasn't great, he was he was just okay, But
- 16:39Speaker 3: the pick at the end was bad. The other pick
- 16:42Speaker 3: was bad early that led to Buffalo points, and then
- 16:46Speaker 3: you have to blame him for a shin going down
- 16:48Speaker 3: just awareness. I mean, it's just him. I know it
- 16:51Speaker 3: was kind of a fluky play, but that basically took
- 16:55Speaker 3: four and a half five points on average off the board.
- 16:59Speaker 3: So yeah, he wasn't great, but I thought the Jags
- 17:04Speaker 3: defense played well and it was just it was just
- 17:07Speaker 3: Josh Allen was just incredible.
- 17:09Speaker 1: You gotta ad it to ridiculous and an unfortunate miss
- 17:11Speaker 1: from Cam Little early to obviously the difference. But all right,
- 17:15Speaker 1: green Bank, Chicago, Holy mackerel. So Chicago wins a game
- 17:18Speaker 1: thirty one, twenty seven and one and a half point
- 17:20Speaker 1: home Dogs total over forty six and a half. There
- 17:23Speaker 1: is really not much to say here other than like,
- 17:26Speaker 1: if you haven't watched Chicago all year, this is exactly
- 17:28Speaker 1: what you got. And then from Green Bay's perspective, like
- 17:31Speaker 1: they've lost five straight after this one, they have not
- 17:35Speaker 1: looked the same in you know, basically without Micah Parsons.
- 17:38Speaker 1: But I mean, when you talk about the play calling
- 17:40Speaker 1: from Laflour in the second half, they attempted seven runs
- 17:42Speaker 1: in the second half of twenty one three was minus
- 17:45Speaker 1: two to one six zero one zero and zero first
- 17:49Speaker 1: four drives in the second half.
- 17:50Speaker 2: They gained nine total yards.
- 17:52Speaker 1: And I think the worst part about it was they
- 17:54Speaker 1: knocked off like four minutes on the clock in total
- 17:58Speaker 1: in those four drives, so he just really got shit
- 18:01Speaker 1: before they even scored a touchdown in the second half
- 18:04Speaker 1: and really got something going. It was already twenty one
- 18:06Speaker 1: sixteen and it was a ballgame, so it just you
- 18:08Speaker 1: had kind of ruined the entire lead based off of
- 18:12Speaker 1: your play calling, and you could just see it like
- 18:14Speaker 1: after they got up, they were just allowing Chicago to
- 18:17Speaker 1: do kind of what they wanted and stick around, and
- 18:20Speaker 1: that honestly ended up being the problem. And you mentioned
- 18:22Speaker 1: that the fourth and eighth throw to Rome is just,
- 18:24Speaker 1: I mean, something you will see forever in Chicago, no
- 18:27Speaker 1: matter what happens, because it was just that unreal of
- 18:30Speaker 1: a throw from a guy that talented and also very
- 18:32Speaker 1: cool that he looked like Michael Jordan in the middle
- 18:34Speaker 1: of the air, but either way, absolutely ridiculous.
- 18:37Speaker 2: So what do you make from Green Bay Chicago?
- 18:40Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Green Bay injuries, I think that
- 18:43Speaker 3: Cod there did. I mean, like Cooper, they had some
- 18:45Speaker 3: more offensive line injuries, Doc Tom not starting although they
- 18:48Speaker 3: were up twenty one three, missed a fuel go at
- 18:50Speaker 3: the end of that, they should be up twenty four
- 18:51Speaker 3: to three. You have to win that game. And they're
- 18:54Speaker 3: up twenty one six in the fourth quarter, like you
- 18:59Speaker 3: have to win that game no matter what, and it
- 19:02Speaker 3: just it just was your your typical Bears game. Also
- 19:05Speaker 3: another underrated play obviously the fourth and eight and if
- 19:08Speaker 3: they didn't call the false start, the snap goes over
- 19:10Speaker 3: the head before then and the game is over. The
- 19:13Speaker 3: fourth and eight is incredible throw by Kleb. Then they
- 19:17Speaker 3: score a touchdown, they get the two point conversion, slept
- 19:21Speaker 3: on conversion because if you don't get that the Packers
- 19:24Speaker 3: at the end. Now, the Packers missed the field goal
- 19:26Speaker 3: after that, but then they had the ball at the
- 19:27Speaker 3: very end of the game at the Bears twenty timeout
- 19:32Speaker 3: management wasn't great for the Force. They had no timeouts left,
- 19:35Speaker 3: there was a runoff. It was a mess. But if
- 19:38Speaker 3: the if there were so many things that could have
- 19:40Speaker 3: happened where the Packers could have kick the game winning
- 19:42Speaker 3: field and now they probably would have missed it again. But
- 19:45Speaker 3: they missed two field goals, an extra point, and the
- 19:48Speaker 3: Bears got a two point conversion not after nine points.
- 19:53Speaker 3: Of those hidden points and all of those cumulatively led
- 19:57Speaker 3: to a four point lead. If one of those things
- 20:00Speaker 3: goes the other way, the Packers are kicking a feel
- 20:03Speaker 3: a lot of tie or to take the order to win.
- 20:06Speaker 3: Instead they have to throw up a hail Mary. And
- 20:09Speaker 3: at the end they had their back up right tackle,
- 20:12Speaker 3: their third string center, and their backup left tackle in
- 20:15Speaker 3: the game. But I did think that Dennis Allen. I
- 20:18Speaker 3: thought that the four play calling wasn't great, but I
- 20:21Speaker 3: thought that Dennis allen adjustments on defense and the additional
- 20:26Speaker 3: some of the pressure packages that he was bringing I
- 20:29Speaker 3: thought were very nice in the second half, because that's
- 20:31Speaker 3: a bad defense. But it just felt like a choke
- 20:38Speaker 3: and it just felt like every Bears game all this year.
- 20:40Speaker 3: I mean, that's their seventh win this year, NFL record,
- 20:43Speaker 3: seventh win when trailing with under two minutes to go,
- 20:46Speaker 3: and as someone who had to, I had the Packers
- 20:48Speaker 3: plus one now again, I thought I was gonna push
- 20:50Speaker 3: it worse to losing that game is a nightmare. But
- 20:55Speaker 3: the fourth and eight, once they got that, I said,
- 20:57Speaker 3: I'm in trouble. I would have sale the game was
- 21:00Speaker 3: over if they didn't convert that. But that was the
- 21:02Speaker 3: play of the game.
- 21:04Speaker 1: Seriously, I mean, that play is just unbelievable when you
- 21:08Speaker 1: look at back at it, especially almost getting sacked, like
- 21:11Speaker 1: throwing an almost mid air, just absolutely ridiculous.
- 21:14Speaker 2: The one thing.
- 21:15Speaker 3: Packers had just scored a touchdown to go up twenty
- 21:18Speaker 3: seven to sixteen with six to go, and like, now
- 21:24Speaker 3: there's what there was like five to go, fourth and
- 21:26Speaker 3: eight at midfield. You don't get that it's over. The
- 21:30Speaker 3: game's over. So given the circumstances, the stage, and then
- 21:35Speaker 3: just how incredible that throw you have to hat tip
- 21:38Speaker 3: Caleb Williams. Now the Bears get I mean, how based
- 21:42Speaker 3: on how everything broke, it's pretty crazy that the Seahawks
- 21:48Speaker 3: were they were, It looked like they were going to
- 21:53Speaker 3: get the Packers, and the Packers had a bunch more injuries,
- 21:57Speaker 3: and then the Bears win. So then you're a Seahawks fan,
- 22:01Speaker 3: you say, shit, we gotta play the Rams. And then
- 22:06Speaker 3: the Eagles get upset at home, which there's not a
- 22:09Speaker 3: lot of people including myself, saw happening, and now they
- 22:13Speaker 3: get the forty nine ers. So it went from oh,
- 22:15Speaker 3: we're getting the Packers for sure up twenty one, twenty
- 22:19Speaker 3: one to three, to oh god, we're getting the Rams
- 22:23Speaker 3: to Okay, we're getting the forty nine ers, So what
- 22:26Speaker 3: roller coaster promotions for Seahawks fans despite not.
- 22:28Speaker 1: Playing seriously, absolutely unreal to go back and forth and
- 22:33Speaker 1: now Seattle looks like they're a seven and a half
- 22:35Speaker 1: point favorite against the Niners and rams are Land three
- 22:38Speaker 1: and a half at the moment in Chicago.
- 22:40Speaker 2: So interesting lines.
- 22:42Speaker 3: On the least touchdown swing Sewks serious the Eagles result,
- 22:47Speaker 3: you would go from a toss up game probably to
- 22:53Speaker 3: somewhere round of pick I mean, now a touchdown plus
- 22:56Speaker 3: favor crazy.
- 22:58Speaker 2: All right, let's do that in San Francisco Philly game. Quick.
- 23:00Speaker 1: So San Francisco does end up winning twenty three nineteen
- 23:02Speaker 1: five and a half point road dogs total under forty
- 23:05Speaker 1: four and a half.
- 23:05Speaker 2: I thought this one.
- 23:06Speaker 1: This line is fantastic, So from Shield Capatia, who used
- 23:09Speaker 1: to work with me at ESPN. Niners produced the highest
- 23:12Speaker 1: single game offensive success rate against the Eagles since Fangio
- 23:15Speaker 1: became their DC. It was just the perfect game plan
- 23:19Speaker 1: for what Shanahan put together here. San Francisco defense pretty
- 23:22Speaker 1: much showed up here with their six seventh eighth linebackers
- 23:25Speaker 1: out there, but really it was probably just an inept
- 23:28Speaker 1: Philly offensive game. I mean Hurts his fifteen incompletions just
- 23:32Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty eight yards passing Rady under eighty
- 23:35Speaker 1: QBR of forty and to me, this is what probably
- 23:38Speaker 1: gets at the most. So late passdowns he was at
- 23:41Speaker 1: thirty one percent success rate and passing to Davanta Goddard,
- 23:46Speaker 1: Barkley and aj he went eighteen of thirty one, So
- 23:49Speaker 1: that's thirteen incompletions, a lot off target, a lot in
- 23:53Speaker 1: pass breaks to those guys. And this one was the
- 23:56Speaker 1: best which Juwan Jennings had more completed passes fifteen plus
- 24:00Speaker 1: yards air then Jalen Hurts did, who went oh for
- 24:03Speaker 1: five just absolutely terrible from my opinion on the offensive
- 24:07Speaker 1: side of the ball. That really let them up because
- 24:09Speaker 1: Saquan had a good game. But what do you make
- 24:10Speaker 1: of this one?
- 24:12Speaker 3: Yes, one thing I got right this weekend was the
- 24:14Speaker 3: under which I thought, which I thought was gonna get
- 24:17Speaker 3: ruined at the end of the toast. Yeah, I thought
- 24:20Speaker 3: the Eagles were going down and scoring. But this is
- 24:23Speaker 3: again a microcosm of the year for the Philadelphia Eagles,
- 24:27Speaker 3: and even playing this beat up and already bad forty
- 24:30Speaker 3: nine Ers defense that were down their top four linebackers.
- 24:34Speaker 3: They score, they go on to sixteen play ninety four
- 24:38Speaker 3: yard nine minute drive to golf thirteen to seven midway
- 24:43Speaker 3: through the second quarter, and then from on their next three, four, five,
- 24:52Speaker 3: Their next five drives twenty seven plays for twenty six yards,
- 24:58Speaker 3: taking them midway through the fourth. That was the Eagles
- 25:02Speaker 3: offense all year, no matter who they were playing, they
- 25:06Speaker 3: would go these long stretches where they couldn't do anything.
- 25:10Speaker 3: I mean, it is and like it to play calling
- 25:13Speaker 3: is bad. We know Patoola is bad. It's not creative.
- 25:16Speaker 3: It's just hitch routes. And some of the runs were
- 25:20Speaker 3: But the biggest thing is their offensive line is so
- 25:22Speaker 3: much like how many times did you see Barkley who
- 25:25Speaker 3: still if you actually just give them space, he will
- 25:28Speaker 3: go for ten to fifteen plus yards. How many times
- 25:31Speaker 3: all year including today was Barkley hit as soon as
- 25:34Speaker 3: you're handing the ball off hit stuffed in the backfield.
- 25:37Speaker 3: I mean they were thirtieth in the NFL and stuff right.
- 25:40Speaker 3: Obviously no Lane Johnson today hurt. Their offense is night
- 25:43Speaker 3: and day with him. But this was it kind of
- 25:47Speaker 3: just summed up the Eagle season with their offense and
- 25:51Speaker 3: the droughts that they went on the u have Siriani
- 25:55Speaker 3: blowing up on the sidelines with AJ Brown and then
- 25:58Speaker 3: AJ Brown doesn't catch a pass. A couple dropped the
- 26:00Speaker 3: whole rest of the way. The AJ Brown discourse and
- 26:04Speaker 3: the Sirianni Patuila discourse on WIP and what is the
- 26:10Speaker 3: ninety seventy five whatever the radio station is for the
- 26:13Speaker 3: next couple of weeks, It's going to be interesting in Philly.
- 26:17Speaker 3: But yeah, I was shocked at the Niners with and
- 26:20Speaker 3: even after losing Kittle. Yeah, and they lost the turnover
- 26:24Speaker 3: battle to nothing. Perty had two bad picks, But I
- 26:28Speaker 3: was shot that they were able to push the ball
- 26:31Speaker 3: down the field and hit explosives on this Eagles defense
- 26:36Speaker 3: in twenty five to thirty mile an hour wins. They
- 26:38Speaker 3: had a bunch. I mean, DeMarcus Robinson had a day.
- 26:42Speaker 3: He went off and look, everyone knew the Eagles offense
- 26:47Speaker 3: had issues. Everyone knew Jake Elliott had a down year.
- 26:51Speaker 3: And by the way, I know san Fran missed an
- 26:53Speaker 3: extra point, but Elliott's missed extra point. You had that
- 26:57Speaker 3: in you can kick a field goal late. Like these
- 26:59Speaker 3: little things in the playoffs make such a difference. But
- 27:03Speaker 3: I would be remiss if I didn't give you gave
- 27:07Speaker 3: Shanahan credit. I'll look at it from the other side.
- 27:11Speaker 3: The Eagles defense deserves criticism here. This was the unit
- 27:14Speaker 3: that's carried them all year and you're going up against
- 27:18Speaker 3: you know, I mean, Fanjo has own Shannah in the
- 27:20Speaker 3: past four head to head meetings. He's averaged ten and
- 27:22Speaker 3: a half points per game, never cleared fifteen. And the
- 27:26Speaker 3: forty nine ers, even after losing Kittle, there's no Ricky Piersoll.
- 27:31Speaker 3: They gained three hundred and sixty one yards six point
- 27:34Speaker 3: two yards per play, and there was no run game
- 27:38Speaker 3: to speak of, and there was thirty mile an hour
- 27:40Speaker 3: wins and you have the lead late kick a field goal.
- 27:47Speaker 3: I'll off have an interception, and you let them go
- 27:51Speaker 3: ten plays sixty six yards and score a touchdown that
- 27:54Speaker 3: you cannot let them. At worst, you have to hold
- 27:58Speaker 3: them to a field goal there. But credit to forty
- 28:01Speaker 3: nine ers, the Eagles defense, they were great all year.
- 28:04Speaker 3: They do deserve blame for that performance today because it
- 28:07Speaker 3: wasn't great. So yeah, credit to the forty nine ers
- 28:10Speaker 3: is an all I Sawah was great. They didn't allow
- 28:13Speaker 3: the explosives there. There was I mean, Eric Hendricks made
- 28:17Speaker 3: the made he deflected the game winning pass, and like, yeah,
- 28:23Speaker 3: there was the toola can't be back?
- 28:26Speaker 2: You have?
- 28:26Speaker 3: This roster has way too much talent to be coordinated
- 28:30Speaker 3: like that. I don't even know, Well Siriani be back,
- 28:33Speaker 3: I don't know, I mean he does he yet? The
- 28:35Speaker 3: Eagles are ruthless. They have a very good organization, a
- 28:39Speaker 3: very good GM. They're run very well. Yeah, like is
- 28:46Speaker 3: he one hundred percent?
- 28:47Speaker 1: This is a loss that just can't happen, right, I
- 28:49Speaker 1: mean like even watching this game, Phillies up, three, Phillies
- 28:52Speaker 1: up six, whatever it was, it was like, Okay, they're
- 28:54Speaker 1: gonna do enough to win this and we're going to
- 28:56Speaker 1: talk the entire week about how it didn't look good
- 28:58Speaker 1: but they want anyway. And San Francisco was like screw that,
- 29:02Speaker 1: Like we're honestly just gonna take this game, no matter
- 29:04Speaker 1: who's on the field.
- 29:05Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 29:05Speaker 1: I kind of had forgetten, like forgotten and then blanked
- 29:08Speaker 1: out about the Kittle thing, but I mean not, I
- 29:10Speaker 1: mean adding the Kittle injury to everything else they were
- 29:13Speaker 1: going through and then they still come out on top.
- 29:16Speaker 1: Just honestly, probably one of those shocks. I mean if
- 29:19Speaker 1: Carolina had one, which we'll talk about in a second.
- 29:21Speaker 1: Obviously more shocking, but this was it. I mean, this
- 29:24Speaker 1: was the craziest. I couldn't have even imagined this with
- 29:26Speaker 1: all the injuries. I line got up to six middle
- 29:29Speaker 1: of the week, close at five and a half, but
- 29:31Speaker 1: wild nonetheless, And the thing was San Francisco also gave
- 29:33Speaker 1: them two turnovers, So I mean, well, yeah, two nothing.
- 29:38Speaker 1: The thing that's crazy is and I just looked, I
- 29:39Speaker 1: looked this up before we came on. Siriani is now
- 29:42Speaker 1: lost four straight when the opponent has two plus turnovers.
- 29:44Speaker 1: He was twenty five and two prior to that. So,
- 29:47Speaker 1: I mean, lately it just no matter what happens, close
- 29:50Speaker 1: game and Philly's offense doesn't come through.
- 29:52Speaker 3: But shock, there's like these the Hurts never turns it over, right,
- 29:57Speaker 3: they don't They the Eagles never turn sometimes. That's like
- 30:02Speaker 3: I feel like it's bad in a way because they
- 30:05Speaker 3: just they don't take risks, right, They're like it's just
- 30:08Speaker 3: these how many times on second and long and sometimes
- 30:11Speaker 3: on third long where they're running the ball.
- 30:15Speaker 2: To lose.
- 30:16Speaker 3: Yeah, they're just playing to like pull these games out
- 30:19Speaker 3: by a field goal. Bear, And like that's tough to do.
- 30:23Speaker 3: They just need a whole new offensive of off score
- 30:26Speaker 3: in a new philosophy.
- 30:28Speaker 1: It's like, this is like not making the playoffs, honestly,
- 30:30Speaker 1: like it pretty much is going to be looked at
- 30:32Speaker 1: very similarly to lose a game as like a six
- 30:34Speaker 1: point favorite at home to a team that's the walking dead.
- 30:38Speaker 3: All right, I will say the line news something that. Look,
- 30:41Speaker 3: the best thing you can do betting the NFL, and
- 30:44Speaker 3: even in the playoffs, where lines are even more efficient,
- 30:47Speaker 3: is get the best of the number. It's the best
- 30:48Speaker 3: thing you can do. Now, this weekend didn't really work out.
- 30:50Speaker 3: Didn't work out for me in particular. I could think
- 30:53Speaker 3: of Packers, I add the Panthers under forty nine Ers
- 30:58Speaker 3: under least worked out. But if you had the Jags,
- 31:04Speaker 3: I mean Jags took real money. Jags at some sharp
- 31:07Speaker 3: shops closed two and a half, opened a dog, and
- 31:12Speaker 3: then the Eagles they were sitting three and a half close.
- 31:16Speaker 3: I think it closed five and a half, right there, Yeah,
- 31:18Speaker 3: close five and a half linked with Lane Johnson Autrent
- 31:21Speaker 3: Williams in. But you beat that line over the long run.
- 31:26Speaker 3: That's gonna work out with this week for some of
- 31:29Speaker 3: the bigger line moves didn't work out, but short sample
- 31:32Speaker 3: size can overreact, all.
- 31:34Speaker 1: Right, Speaking of lines and craziness, Rams beat the point
- 31:37Speaker 1: Panthers thirty four to thirty one. They close a ten
- 31:40Speaker 1: point road favorites total over forty five. So yeah, Carolina
- 31:43Speaker 1: does close plus ten time for the biggest home dog
- 31:46Speaker 1: in playoff history. But listen, Carolina was inside or pushing
- 31:49Speaker 1: the number of the entire game, the entire game. So
- 31:53Speaker 1: I mean there was a chance for the Rams to
- 31:55Speaker 1: go up. You know, it could have been it could
- 31:58Speaker 1: have been thirteen, that could have been sick teen or seventeen.
- 32:01Speaker 1: But there was an opportunity there that kind of blow
- 32:03Speaker 1: the game away, and they almost really blew this one.
- 32:06Speaker 1: I mean seriously, a few opportunities there late in the
- 32:09Speaker 1: game where it could have definitely gone Carolina's way, especially
- 32:12Speaker 1: after that late turnover. I will say this home dog's
- 32:15Speaker 1: of four plus and down nine to zero against the
- 32:17Speaker 1: spread last fifty years in the playoffs. We will see
- 32:19Speaker 1: if the Bears get there. Pretty crazy for a two
- 32:22Speaker 1: seed home dog in the divisional round. But nonetheless, all
- 32:26Speaker 1: I really have to say is like Bryce Young played formidable,
- 32:29Speaker 1: Like the numbers were all right, He had.
- 32:32Speaker 2: A positive EPA.
- 32:33Speaker 1: But he goes four of seventeen passing under pressure, just
- 32:37Speaker 1: not something you can do in something typical to what
- 32:40Speaker 1: Bryce Young usually does. And then you look at the
- 32:42Speaker 1: other side, Stafford, three touchdowns, no picks, two hundred and
- 32:45Speaker 1: forty four yards in a clean pocket and under pressure
- 32:48Speaker 1: he goes five to thirteen with an interception and what
- 32:52Speaker 1: you would have expected thirty one targets to Pooka and DeVante.
- 32:55Speaker 1: So going to the people he trusts in this one.
- 32:58Speaker 3: Yeah, I was at the game was played out nothing
- 33:04Speaker 3: like I thought it would. Carolina came out throwing. I
- 33:07Speaker 3: thought they were going to try to run, control the clock,
- 33:10Speaker 3: shorten the game. Now maybe because they got behind that
- 33:12Speaker 3: all changed. But yeah, I mean Young threw the ball
- 33:14Speaker 3: forty times, he only ran it I think twenty now
- 33:17Speaker 3: they didn't have much success running it. I thought Quentin Lake,
- 33:19Speaker 3: who returned from injury, had a really bad game. He's
- 33:23Speaker 3: a good player, and I thought it was going to
- 33:24Speaker 3: help the defense. But that looked like there was some
- 33:26Speaker 3: rust and the speed wasn't there. And I mean Davante
- 33:32Speaker 3: missing time, he didn't look great. I mean when he
- 33:35Speaker 3: had five catches, he was targeted. How many times. Was
- 33:36Speaker 3: he targeted a lot fourteen times? Yeah? So Nikoua was incredible. Stafford,
- 33:44Speaker 3: I thought he struggled a bit against again his old coordinator,
- 33:49Speaker 3: these these coverages where they disguise and shift post snap,
- 33:56Speaker 3: these mass coverages. He struggled a bit again, But in
- 33:59Speaker 3: the end they recovered and they put that drive together
- 34:03Speaker 3: at the end of the game. Seven plays, seventy one yards,
- 34:06Speaker 3: incredible throw by Stafford down the sidelines and they got
- 34:11Speaker 3: a Yeah, that was crazy. So I was shocked at
- 34:16Speaker 3: the Fantas scored thirty one the first time in won,
- 34:19Speaker 3: but that was on you know, a pick six, a
- 34:21Speaker 3: couple of fourth down busted plays. I did not think
- 34:24Speaker 3: they were going to get to thirty one this time around.
- 34:26Speaker 3: So I'm I'm not sure what the make of the Rams.
- 34:29Speaker 3: In short, like I fought like a month ago, this
- 34:33Speaker 3: is a team. If you said who's winning the Super Bowl,
- 34:35Speaker 3: I would have confidently said, all right, I'm gonna pick
- 34:37Speaker 3: the Rams. And then you know, down they're up. They're dominating.
- 34:43Speaker 3: The Seahawks look like they're poised to get the one seed.
- 34:48Speaker 3: They melt away that game they lose in Atlanta. They
- 34:53Speaker 3: don't look great, and you know, wanting to try for
- 34:55Speaker 3: the first two and a half quarters against the Cardinals,
- 34:58Speaker 3: and they eat this game out against Carolina. I got
- 35:02Speaker 3: to dig more into the Rams on what's going on
- 35:04Speaker 3: because it hasn't looked pretty for the last month.
- 35:06Speaker 1: Anow, they're lay in three and a half or four
- 35:08Speaker 1: in the Chicago team who maybe won't be there in
- 35:10Speaker 1: the first half, but you know they will be there
- 35:12Speaker 1: in the second.
- 35:13Speaker 2: The two things I.
- 35:14Speaker 3: Set the Bears when they go down seventeen.
- 35:17Speaker 1: The two things I saw from the Rams in this
- 35:19Speaker 1: game that I guess are kind of puzzling. So they
- 35:21Speaker 1: get nine penalties and this is coming from the least
- 35:24Speaker 1: penalized team in the NFL during the season.
- 35:26Speaker 3: The penalized team in five years.
- 35:28Speaker 1: Yeah, they had twelve percent of their entire regular season
- 35:32Speaker 1: penalties in this game. I mean that that is how crazy,
- 35:35Speaker 1: and I guess undisciplined to a tee they were in
- 35:39Speaker 1: this one and the other This is the other one,
- 35:40Speaker 1: and you had mentioned it, but Carolina going four to
- 35:43Speaker 1: four in the red zone and Cocher and Tech going
- 35:45Speaker 1: fourteen of two point fifteen, that's a problem. And you
- 35:48Speaker 1: had mentioned Lake, but their secondary they're the past players.
- 35:52Speaker 2: They allow.
- 35:53Speaker 1: To me, that's like part of the issue, and you're
- 35:54Speaker 1: going up against I'm gonna call them the Magician, but
- 35:57Speaker 1: right now that's kind of what Caleb's doing. So I mean,
- 36:00Speaker 1: between Burden and Rome getting another week of healthy coming
- 36:04Speaker 1: off of this one, and I just does on DJ Moore,
- 36:06Speaker 1: there's a lot of options there for Chicago. I think
- 36:08Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a worry.
- 36:09Speaker 3: Yeah, the Rams secondary by far is the most questionable
- 36:14Speaker 3: aspect of their team and what ultimately might hold them
- 36:17Speaker 3: back for a set boll. I mean going back to
- 36:19Speaker 3: let's start the November thirtieth when they played the Panthers,
- 36:25Speaker 3: they gave up thirty one and lost. They played the
- 36:28Speaker 3: Cardinals with like they were a backup team, but the
- 36:31Speaker 3: Cardinals were moving the ball in that game, like throwing
- 36:34Speaker 3: the ball as well. They gave up. Then they gave
- 36:36Speaker 3: up thirty four to the Lions, thirty eight to the Seahawks,
- 36:40Speaker 3: twenty seven to the Falcons in a loss, and then
- 36:43Speaker 3: you know, they play the backup Cardinals again, Cardinals are
- 36:45Speaker 3: moving the ball in that game too, and then thirty
- 36:47Speaker 3: one to the Panthers. So like this defense over the
- 36:50Speaker 3: last month and a half has regularly given up thirty
- 36:53Speaker 3: one to thirty three thirty eight points sets that and
- 36:56Speaker 3: the Bears have the talent to take it. We'll just
- 37:00Speaker 3: see how far behind they get first.
- 37:02Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 37:03Speaker 1: Crazy, Well that was Wildcard weekend. Here's your weekly reminder
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- 37:41Speaker 1: Night Football, I will throw it over to Kendri Middleton
- 37:43Speaker 1: for a quick word from our sponsor.
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- 38:27Speaker 2: Monday night football time.
- 38:28Speaker 1: So right now, if I look at the board, it
- 38:31Speaker 1: is Texans minus three sitting at minus one zh five,
- 38:34Speaker 1: so that seems to be coming down a bit thirty
- 38:37Speaker 1: eight and a half. Which the fun thing about thirty
- 38:39Speaker 1: eight and a half. It is the lowest playoff total
- 38:42Speaker 1: since I believe brock Osweiler Connor Cook twenty sixteen seventeen,
- 38:47Speaker 1: so we haven't seen a playoff total this low in
- 38:49Speaker 1: some time. But stuck, I will leave it to you, like,
- 38:53Speaker 1: what do you think about this game? I have a
- 38:54Speaker 1: pick or two and some trends, but what do you
- 38:56Speaker 1: make of this one?
- 38:59Speaker 3: I mean, I think the line. I think it like
- 39:02Speaker 3: taking out all the three and a half on the
- 39:03Speaker 3: Steelers made sense. The low scoring game home dog Rogers
- 39:08Speaker 3: can get the ball out quick to neutralize some of
- 39:10Speaker 3: that Texans pressure. The issue is going to be is
- 39:14Speaker 3: if they don't think it's going to be hard to
- 39:16Speaker 3: maintain drives right, So like if you could have a
- 39:21Speaker 3: couple first downs, but then if you have if you're
- 39:23Speaker 3: incomplete on first run for two on second on those
- 39:26Speaker 3: third and longs. Rogers against that pressure, and he's been
- 39:30Speaker 3: bad against pressure year, it's not going to go well.
- 39:33Speaker 3: On the other end, Stroud has been really bad against
- 39:35Speaker 3: the blitz. The Steelers defense is getting healthier. You never
- 39:39Speaker 3: know what you're gonna get from Steelers defense. So like
- 39:41Speaker 3: some weeks they look incredible, some weeks it looks broken.
- 39:43Speaker 3: There's gonna be some bus which adds some variants here.
- 39:46Speaker 3: But they also tend to have those splash plays from
- 39:50Speaker 3: their defensive line. The strip sacks, the interceptions, how many
- 39:54Speaker 3: of those can they get will probably go a long
- 39:57Speaker 3: way in determining this game. You know, it's also we'll
- 40:00Speaker 3: see how you know Stroud and an indoor team going
- 40:03Speaker 3: to outdoors and freezing cold temperatures. That's at least worth noting.
- 40:07Speaker 3: I think if you want to bet this game, I
- 40:09Speaker 3: don't have anything right now, but this game is on Monday,
- 40:12Speaker 3: you're gonna have lines. How you know you already have
- 40:15Speaker 3: the Seahawks, Niners, line out the Rams Bears if you
- 40:19Speaker 3: like something next week. I think the Steelers are a
- 40:22Speaker 3: good teaser piece to pair with, you know, say, getting
- 40:27Speaker 3: Seattle from seven and a half to one and a half.
- 40:31Speaker 3: It's just it's just an ideal teaser piece. The total
- 40:34Speaker 3: is thirty eight and a half. I know it's not
- 40:36Speaker 3: the line is that two and a half, But it's
- 40:38Speaker 3: a juice three, you know, so you're crossing three four
- 40:40Speaker 3: six seven. So yeah, I think the Steelers teaser piece
- 40:46Speaker 3: is a good look. But this will probably come down
- 40:49Speaker 3: to which defense can force the more critical turnover because
- 40:54Speaker 3: this one should be tight throughout.
- 40:58Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, if I had to pick a winner,
- 40:59Speaker 2: I like Houston.
- 41:00Speaker 1: But I think the line's just right and I'm not
- 41:02Speaker 1: comfortable really laying three three and a half with a
- 41:04Speaker 1: three eight and a half total, so I buy that.
- 41:07Speaker 1: The one thing I think is interesting is obviously you
- 41:09Speaker 1: get DK Metcalf back in the game. But if you've
- 41:11Speaker 1: watched any Steelers games this year, the chemistry between Metcalf
- 41:14Speaker 1: and Rodgers is pretty much zero. Like I feel like
- 41:17Speaker 1: he is not his favorite target. Now will he force
- 41:20Speaker 1: it there? Like he tends to just throw to his
- 41:22Speaker 1: guys mvs or the tight ends.
- 41:25Speaker 2: Like it's just Rogers is set in his ways.
- 41:27Speaker 1: So it'll be interesting to me how Metcalf kind of
- 41:29Speaker 1: gets brought back into the picture after two plus weeks
- 41:34Speaker 1: of them trying to deal without him, So that to
- 41:37Speaker 1: me is interesting.
- 41:38Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think. I don't think Metcalf being back
- 41:40Speaker 3: is as important in some matchups. You know, he could
- 41:44Speaker 3: He's worth a couple of points of day, sure, Like,
- 41:47Speaker 3: but here Uf Stingley, who can just man up against him?
- 41:54Speaker 3: Because a lot of times you even in the red
- 41:56Speaker 3: zone right, you'll see like a safety you know, kind
- 41:59Speaker 3: of hovering on his side, cheating decided it might open
- 42:02Speaker 3: up some other things. But the Texans, you know, with
- 42:05Speaker 3: their corners, they can trust Stingley. By the way, Leonora
- 42:10Speaker 3: followed AJ Brown, he never followed all year, and he
- 42:12Speaker 3: followed A J. Brown today. I don't they just give
- 42:14Speaker 3: him on my mind, he didn't follow JSN all year.
- 42:16Speaker 3: I'm curious to see if that they changed that next week.
- 42:19Speaker 3: But yeah, so he's not as important, but he does
- 42:21Speaker 3: have the big play capability, So like he does have
- 42:25Speaker 3: the chance of like taking a slant seventy yards right,
- 42:28Speaker 3: whereas no one else on the Steelers does. So he
- 42:30Speaker 3: gives you a little bit more upside. But in this
- 42:32Speaker 3: particular matchup, I don't think he's as big as he
- 42:37Speaker 3: would be compared to others.
- 42:39Speaker 1: And you would mentioned this Stroud thing. I think it
- 42:41Speaker 1: is worth noting. I mean, he's two and oh straight
- 42:43Speaker 1: up and against the spread at home in the playoffs,
- 42:45Speaker 1: zero and two on the road and those you know,
- 42:48Speaker 1: you hear quarterback stats and you're like, I need more context. Well,
- 42:51Speaker 1: I mean on those two road games, they've scored twenty
- 42:53Speaker 1: four total points, scoring fourteen or less in both games.
- 42:56Speaker 2: You don't you don't need much more contact than that.
- 42:59Speaker 1: So that has to change if Houston's going to be
- 43:01Speaker 1: able to produce what they need to do to win
- 43:03Speaker 1: this game. So to me, that's noteworthy. And then I
- 43:05Speaker 1: tweeted this out. It's just kind of bonkers that the
- 43:07Speaker 1: Steelers have started so.
- 43:09Speaker 2: Slow in playoff games.
- 43:10Speaker 1: They've been outscored seventy three to nothing in their six
- 43:13Speaker 1: game playoff losing streak in the first quarter. So I
- 43:17Speaker 1: mean they've scored seven points or less than sixty nine
- 43:19Speaker 1: straight first quarters. Like, you're gonna probably need some sort
- 43:22Speaker 1: of offense at some point. You don't want to fall
- 43:24Speaker 1: down seven, ten, thirteen, whatever. Is nothing to Houston with
- 43:27Speaker 1: that defense, So Pittsburgh got to try to change things
- 43:30Speaker 1: up there. So those are the things that I thought
- 43:32Speaker 1: were kind of noteworthy.
- 43:33Speaker 2: I'll give you, just sixty.
- 43:35Speaker 3: Nine straight without scoring more than seven points in the
- 43:38Speaker 3: first quarter is insane.
- 43:40Speaker 1: Insane, and it's just and that's through Rudolph and all
- 43:43Speaker 1: sorts of different garbage. But nonetheless, the three things I
- 43:48Speaker 1: were looking at were I kind of like wooding marks
- 43:50Speaker 1: again in the end zone, even in a low scoring game.
- 43:52Speaker 1: If I had to pick a touchdown, that would probably
- 43:53Speaker 1: be my guy. I actually really like mvs. Over nine
- 43:56Speaker 1: and a half receaving yards. I just feel like in
- 44:00Speaker 1: this type of game, even with Metcalf back, he's going
- 44:02Speaker 1: to force it into the tight ends. But I also
- 44:04Speaker 1: think he's going to force it into the guys he likes,
- 44:06Speaker 1: because that's just who the hell Rodgers is so I
- 44:08Speaker 1: like that nine and a half, and I would look
- 44:10Speaker 1: at Boswell over one and a half field goals. I
- 44:12Speaker 1: don't love it in this type of game. But again,
- 44:15Speaker 1: I see Pittsburgh moving the ball up to a certain
- 44:17Speaker 1: point and then just being steinmiat and Rodgers getting sacked
- 44:20Speaker 1: and whatever. It ends up being in completions and then
- 44:23Speaker 1: they end up having to kick field goals. So I
- 44:24Speaker 1: don't even know what that line is. I didn't look
- 44:26Speaker 1: at the juice, but over one and a half field
- 44:28Speaker 1: goals feels like something that'll hit for Boswell. So those
- 44:30Speaker 1: are my three looks.
- 44:32Speaker 3: I believe the Giants have the record for that record
- 44:36Speaker 3: for consecutive games without scoring more than seven points in
- 44:39Speaker 3: the first quarter, and I think it's current. I think
- 44:41Speaker 3: it's eighty. Maybe they broke it this year, but I
- 44:45Speaker 3: don't think I think it's eighty games. I'm Giants eighty
- 44:53Speaker 3: games without scoring.
- 44:57Speaker 1: I have the Pittsburgh stack goes back to number of
- 45:00Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, which is a lot of time for Pittsburgh.
- 45:03Speaker 2: In a lot of different quarterbacks.
- 45:04Speaker 3: This one goes back to twenty twenty. O don't know. Let
- 45:06Speaker 3: me say, wow, I could be making this up.
- 45:11Speaker 2: Even if you are it sounds impressive.
- 45:13Speaker 3: Yeah. The New York Giants had a streak of eighty
- 45:15Speaker 3: consecutive games where they scored no more than seven points
- 45:17Speaker 3: in the first quarter. Began during the twenty twenty season
- 45:19Speaker 3: and continued until early in the twenty twenty five seasons,
- 45:23Speaker 3: so it ended earlier this year. It's the second longest
- 45:26Speaker 3: streak in NFL history. The longest is.
- 45:32Speaker 2: Oh, you know what, it might have been russ In
- 45:33Speaker 2: like that early Cowboys game. Yes, that's a guess.
- 45:39Speaker 3: The record is held by the Brooklyn Dodgers from nineteen
- 45:44Speaker 3: thirty to nineteen thirty seven eighty six.
- 45:47Speaker 2: Jackie Robinson.
- 45:48Speaker 1: All right, so if you want to tell some of
- 45:50Speaker 1: these Monday night football bets, make sure to look for
- 45:52Speaker 1: the quicks up blink in the podcast in video description
- 45:54Speaker 1: or go to Action hour dot com slash bet now now.
- 45:57Speaker 1: But finally, before we get out of here, let's hear
- 45:59Speaker 1: from Brandon Anderson and his Hot Red picks for next
- 46:01Speaker 1: week Hot Wraps seventy on ice rights ice cream Hoe.
- 46:12Speaker 5: I'm gonna start with forty nine Ers Seahawks. Gimme the
- 46:16Speaker 5: under under forty six and a half. Typically you want
- 46:19Speaker 5: overs in the division round and usually with the Niners.
- 46:22Speaker 5: But you look a little below the surface here. Obviously,
- 46:24Speaker 5: these teams just played two weeks ago Seattle thirteen to three,
- 46:27Speaker 5: dominant win. Niners thirty six percent success rate terrible, one
- 46:31Speaker 5: hundred and seventy three yards, three points, both of those
- 46:34Speaker 5: there lowest since their debut game with Cal Shanahan back
- 46:37Speaker 5: in twenty seventeen. Nine first downs all game. They got
- 46:40Speaker 5: totally shut down on their money plays sand Fran number
- 46:43Speaker 5: number one, red zone number one on late downs. They
- 46:47Speaker 5: were two eleven on late downs oh of one in
- 46:49Speaker 5: the red zone that game. This is what Seattle went
- 46:52Speaker 5: out to get Mike McDonald four for these Shanahan McVay offenses,
- 46:56Speaker 5: Seahawks defense is awesome Number one Dvoway, top two against
- 47:00Speaker 5: the run and the pass, and importantly top seven are
- 47:03Speaker 5: better against motion play action under center, middle of the field,
- 47:08Speaker 5: all those money Shanahan areas. That is what Seattle defense best.
- 47:12Speaker 5: And it turns out that really wasn't new for the
- 47:16Speaker 5: Niners offense to stall. We saw it again today against
- 47:19Speaker 5: a real defense. Check out these splits. Since brock pretty
- 47:22Speaker 5: returned from injury, Niners have played four games against defenses
- 47:25Speaker 5: twentieth or worse. Four games against anyone better like twentieth
- 47:29Speaker 5: is not even good, just even league average or better.
- 47:32Speaker 5: This is including like Carolina and Cleveland, and those four
- 47:35Speaker 5: games against the bad defenses average scored the game just
- 47:39Speaker 5: under seventy points a game forty or fifty four percent
- 47:42Speaker 5: success rate for the Niners offense, and the other four
- 47:45Speaker 5: games again against any defense with a pulse forty percent
- 47:50Speaker 5: success rate down from fifty four. Average score of those
- 47:53Speaker 5: games not seventy anymore, try thirty thirty point three max
- 47:57Speaker 5: score of forty two. The Niners off is just not
- 48:00Speaker 5: scoring against top defenses. I think they got a little
- 48:03Speaker 5: bit inflated based on some of those bad matchups. Now,
- 48:07Speaker 5: obviously George Kittle is out. That's a huge loss, especially
- 48:09Speaker 5: in this matchup. Seattle is not defended tight ends that great.
- 48:13Speaker 5: Trent Williams is a question mark as always, he missed
- 48:16Speaker 5: the last game. Ricky Piersoll is an unknown. Niners offense
- 48:19Speaker 5: has just not been good enough, and Sales offense really
- 48:22Speaker 5: hasn't been that top notch either. Week eleven, a RAMS game,
- 48:25Speaker 5: we saw the RAMS count of exposed Seattle, and since
- 48:28Speaker 5: that game forward, Seattle went from the number one passing
- 48:31Speaker 5: offense to twenty fifths. That's bottom quarter of the league. Seattle,
- 48:36Speaker 5: even against the Niners, probably not going to hang a
- 48:38Speaker 5: huge number. They have been an under team, especially first
- 48:41Speaker 5: half thirteen and four to the under, so I will
- 48:43Speaker 5: probably look for a first half under as well.
- 48:45Speaker 2: But this forty six.
- 48:46Speaker 5: And a half, this is the same total the Niners
- 48:49Speaker 5: open against the Eagles, and I don't close forty four.
- 48:51Speaker 5: I think this goes the same direction that's already going down.
- 48:55Speaker 5: Forty seven is a key number. We're on the wrong
- 48:57Speaker 5: side of it, but I think we get towards forty four,
- 48:59Speaker 5: which is the key number down. Give me the under
- 49:02Speaker 5: forty six and a half at DraftKings, Seahawks and Niners.
- 49:06Speaker 5: And while we're here, quick second, high red, keep it
- 49:09Speaker 5: nice and easy. Seahawks rams money line parlay. It's Evan
- 49:13Speaker 5: odds right now. This color shot, I think that is
- 49:16Speaker 5: our NFC championship game. Let's start with the Seahawks.
- 49:19Speaker 3: We're just there.
- 49:20Speaker 5: This is a bet on that Mike McDonald defense. Niners
- 49:23Speaker 5: injured everywhere, all those offensive injuries, and Seattle is rested
- 49:27Speaker 5: now because they got that thirteen to three road to win.
- 49:30Speaker 5: This is what they get is the home game with
- 49:32Speaker 5: rest against this tired Niners team. I don't really want
- 49:36Speaker 5: to trust Darnold in that offense yet, but San Franz
- 49:39Speaker 5: defense should be just enough for them to get there.
- 49:41Speaker 5: Seattle's zero three in the red zone that game, so
- 49:44Speaker 5: probably it shouldn't have been been as close as it did.
- 49:47Speaker 5: Turn out. Seattle, when they have fans at home games,
- 49:50Speaker 5: ten straight playoff wins, third longest streak in NFL history.
- 49:55Speaker 5: I think they get an eleventh one here and host
- 49:57Speaker 5: the NFC Championship game against the Rams. This is an
- 50:01Speaker 5: easy sell high spot for the Bears, obvious letdown spot
- 50:05Speaker 5: emotionally after I can they won their Super Bowl right
- 50:08Speaker 5: We saw the comeback the crazy, crazy game against the Packers,
- 50:11Speaker 5: but don't forget though the first three quarters count there too.
- 50:14Speaker 5: Chicago has been totally outplayed through three quarters twice now
- 50:17Speaker 5: in the last month against the Packers, really against some
- 50:20Speaker 5: of the Packers' backups before that big finish. Bears lose
- 50:24Speaker 5: their starting left tackle, they lose their best linebacker and
- 50:27Speaker 5: TG Edwards. Their corners are all banged up. This is
- 50:30Speaker 5: really a good get right spot, I think for the Rams,
- 50:32Speaker 5: especially that Rams offense. I think they can name their
- 50:35Speaker 5: number against the Bears defense. Bears d by far the
- 50:38Speaker 5: weak link on the field, similar to Santa Fran in
- 50:40Speaker 5: the other game. Stafford's fingers supposedly looks fine. How gon
- 50:44Speaker 5: to count on the Rams to score? Do the Bears score?
- 50:48Speaker 5: They might Ben Johnson might find some answers. Rams defense
- 50:51Speaker 5: has been a little bit leaky, but you don't want
- 50:52Speaker 5: to want to shoot out against the Rams. Not with
- 50:54Speaker 5: that Bears defense. Rams didn't get the one seed, but
- 50:58Speaker 5: they didn't kind of get lucky. They get Carolina and
- 51:01Speaker 5: now this banged up Bears team rather than a road
- 51:04Speaker 5: game in a failure or something like that. This is
- 51:06Speaker 5: my Super Bowl pick, my favorite. I think they're the
- 51:09Speaker 5: surer win of these teams, even though they're a bit
- 51:11Speaker 5: shorter on the line. So I'll probably be back on
- 51:13Speaker 5: Rams and Alts this week. So I'm just gonna ride
- 51:16Speaker 5: the two favorites here. I think the public will as well,
- 51:18Speaker 5: especially with all.
- 51:19Speaker 2: The injury news.
- 51:20Speaker 5: So I think these lines do rise a little bit,
- 51:23Speaker 5: maybe towards six ish for the Rams, maybe to seven
- 51:26Speaker 5: or past for Seattle. We're getting plus one hundred on
- 51:29Speaker 5: the money line parlay. I think by game day next weekend,
- 51:32Speaker 5: maybe more like minus one twenty five one to thirty.
- 51:35Speaker 5: So let's grab a rams Seattle money line parlay at
- 51:39Speaker 5: even odds plus one hundred and called a rap. Let's
- 51:42Speaker 5: get to the NFC Championship.
- 51:44Speaker 2: All righty?
- 51:45Speaker 1: Then, thank you Brandon, as always, we appreciate it and
- 51:48Speaker 1: we miss you. That'll do it here on the Favorites
- 51:50Speaker 1: in the Action Hour podcast for our crossover NFL Wildcard
- 51:53Speaker 1: Weekend recap episode presented by DraftKings.
- 51:56Speaker 2: Give us a like on the YouTube video and do.
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- 52:02Speaker 1: are listening.
- 52:02Speaker 2: We always appreciate it.
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- 52:17Speaker 1: game right here Steelers Texans video comes out midday, It'll
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- 52:25Speaker 1: bets from Brandon, the six pack from Ray Bond and
- 52:27Speaker 1: Stuck Anytime, touchdowns from Jill and all of our guys,
- 52:30Speaker 1: and more on the podcast feed next week for the
- 52:33Speaker 1: divisional round.
- 52:34Speaker 2: Thank you for listening. Good luck with all your bets,
- 52:36Speaker 2: oh Man. What a weekend.
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