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Masters PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Fall systems going clear, we lift up What's Up? Ember
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: one Tyler Tamblane here aka to Tag and Tambo back
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: for another edition of Leverage Lane. Here on the ship
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: a nation YouTube station. Got my guy Alex blikel here
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: with me as always and I'd say Masters Week is
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: upon us. But Alex, it reminds me of Black Friday.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: It starts like a month in advance and then eventually
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Black Friday actually gets there. Well, we've made it. We're excited.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: We got a great show to go through for you guys.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: We're going to talk about not just who to play,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: but how to play them. We have a lot more
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: information right now than most coming into the week when
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: it comes to ownership and roster construction, all that stuff.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: We've done other shows. We put out the content. Had
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: to get it on the thread action myself a little
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: bit too, just to just to feel like I was
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: doing like everybody else to doing. But Alex, I'll bring
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: you in first man. What's going on? My friend?
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, very happy to be here. It's obviously a fun week.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: It's like a fascinating week from my game theory perspective.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: There's so much a talk through, including of course Colin
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: Marikawa's injury, and so I think it's just going to
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: be a very fun show and it's it's definitely gonna
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: be one of those where I think I come out
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: of the show with a little bit clearer picture of
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: how I want to tag this lay personally than what
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: I'm coming in with.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I'm hoping to, by the way, because
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: we always do our leverage lane at the end, and
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: I can assure you as of right now, I don't
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: have it figured out yet. I've got one entry so
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: far into that big main event, the thirty three thirty three.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: It looks like it's going to sell out with all
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: the satellites that they did early. But there is three
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: million makers on DraftKings this week, the ten dollar with
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: four hundred thousand plus people, the one hundred dollar with
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: around twenty seven thousand entrants, and you can get up
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: to one fifty in that one as well like the
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: ten dollar, and then the thirty three to thirty three
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: was sixteen sixty seven I believe is the total entries,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: but it'll be dispersed. Right We saw Giants squid win
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: at the Players. It was a different million maker that
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: was a forty four to forty four with only seven
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: hundred less than seven hundred six to sixty seven I
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: think was the number of entries in that. But he
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: only had two entries in there and got the job done.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: So there's lots of different things that you can do
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: to get different We're gonna talk about that. We're gonna
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: talk about the chalk build, how to leverage it. We'll
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: get some more clarity throughout. I know you were dissecting
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit of the Colin Morrikawa followers from the course.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: We'll give it us the updates on his ball speed
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: and how far he's hitting it and all that, and
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: obviously you can bring a pro perspective to that from
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: playing golf and knowing it quite well that way. So
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: we'll get the marketing out of the way first quickly.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I know you've got some stuff going on as well,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: but just to kick it over and be done with that,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I want everybody to be able to see this first off.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: If you are not a member at ship a Nation yet,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: you can get in for the season. I showed this
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: one first. It's not even the best deal right now,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: but it is if you were really looking to save
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: money and being along for the long haul because it's
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: about five dollars per event. It includes sabers Him Optimizer,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: it's got all of our projections ownership, it's got the
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Stone tool, which I'm about to show you guys, the
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Stone two point oh. But I said it's not the
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: best deal, and trying to run through this quickly for
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: you because I will promise to show you this in
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But we are launching the Stone two
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: point oh, and I can assure you it's going to
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: be something worth waiting for. It's exciting. The Stone one
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: will still exist for those that don't like change. We
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: tried not to change too much. We tried to make
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: it better. We know everybody hates change and I get that.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: But if you are looking to join the nation, I
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: know a lot of sites have different deals right now.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Twenty eight bucks for the week, fifty percent off PGA only,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: you can get fifty percent off your first payment for
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: PGA only. You can get fifty percent off your first
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: payment with PGA and Sabersim if you want. But you
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: also could get fifty percent off your first payment with
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: all Access. So I'm going to keep that up for
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: two seconds and Alex to let you give your promos,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: and that's why we start a couple minutes early, just
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: bang out the marketing quickly. We do have the five
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: day trial for nineteen dollars all Access anybody who wants that.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: The PGA options, the Rick run Good one is excluded,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: but if you want monthly for half price twenty nine
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: and twenty eight bucks or whatever, you can get it
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: for thirty bucks, give or take. Let's round up the
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: other one forty bucks, give or take round up. Or
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: you can just go to All Access Core and get
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: the ninety nine down to fifty bucks for an entire month.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: And that's going to include the Masters, the RBC Heritage,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: this are a classic, the Cadillac Championship, all that, but
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: it's all access, so you will also get NBA, MLB, MMA, NASCAR, NHL,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: everything that goes with it. Alex, what do you got
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: going on yourself on your side?
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the Discord big promo this week. I haven't done
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: many big promos, so this is a pretty rare opportunity promo.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: Code Masters fifty gets you fifty percent off for the
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: Discord and you can it's a one time discount, but
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: you can use it on an annual package if you
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: want so can use it anywhere monthly or annual, and
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: if you use it for the annual, you're obviously saving
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: a ton of money on the Discord. And obviously like
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: this is one of the coolest weeks of the year,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: but it also has a little bit extra meaning to
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: me just because this is around the time that I
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: started Discord last year. And so the very first like
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: big strategy note, the thing that I think brings the
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: most value to my Discord, especially for DFS, or these
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: big strategy notes where I just kind of talked through
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: either my you know, grandiose thoughts on just like DFS
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: in general, or how to approach certain tournaments or how
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: to approach certain aspects of DFS theory. And the very
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: first one that I ever did was after last year's Masters,
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: thinking about the type of player that I want to
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: target at major championships and at the Masters specifically. And
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: so I'm going to do a big post this afternoon
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: kind of talking about how to apply last year's lesson
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: to this year's field. I think it's gonna be really
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: valuable one and I hope people check that out and
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: you can do so. Obviously, all the way up until Locke.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: It's just going to live in the discord. Easy to
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: find once you're in there, and you just use promo
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: code Masters fifty if you have fifty percent off. You
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: can find the link to my discord through my Twitter
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: at Alex blita one.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Appreciate it, man, It's gonna be awesome. I'm in the discord.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Males in the discord, like said, a bunch of good people.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Lotship and Nation members are over there as well, and
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: vice versas. So yeah, definitely check that out. We've got
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: some good questions here from Brian justin. Guys, you want
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: to keep this one as interactive as possible. I'm not
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: going to keep Alex all day, but I don't really
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: have a heart out. So if at the end, you
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: know we want to go through more stuff or people
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: want to stick around, I can. I'm happy to do that.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: I'm always excited during the first major, the real major
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: of the season. But Alex, we did get one comment
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: last week. I don't have it here to pull up
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: directly on the screen, but I'll read it verbatim off
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: the page. It was from Beach Bum thirty three seven
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: seven zero, and it's about this week it's relevant. I
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: thought this would be a good quick topic for those
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: that are new or catching us for the first time.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: This is a little bit of evergreen but also applicable
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: to the week in this case ahead it's about the
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Masters and these tournaments when you get more casuals involved.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: But we will get to everything Masters of course as usual,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: but just noting it. It says, with all the casuals
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: entering PGADFS contests and really top heavy prize pools, how
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: does that change your strategy building for next week? This
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: was last week talking about this week for the Masters.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: He says, does that further? They said, I don't know
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: who they are? But says, does that further increase ownership
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: on the well known golfers and quote unquote value plays
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: that are mentioned on various industry shows. I would think
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: the optimal strategy is to be more contrayrant than almost
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: any other event of the year. I may also look
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: at fading Scotty Roori if they're gonna be highly owned.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Spoiler they're not gonna be highly owned. But let's talk
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: about the first part of that conversation, and then I
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: think like the live golfers being here now comes into
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: play a little bit as well. By the way, Patrick
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Reed no longer on Live. I've seen this like everywhere
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: this week. I'm like, oh, you can't do much because
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: he's coming over from Live. It's like, oh, he's past that.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Now he's on the new, bigger and better things, but
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: bigger and batterer price tag as well at nine k.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: So we'll talk about it might be a good price
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: tag if you need him this week. But give me
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: your thoughts on that comment from beach Bomb. I'll start there.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: I really like this conversation, and I think the place
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: that I'll start with it is why ownership might kind
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: of concentrate more on the popular plays when you have
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: this influx of just the casual player. And I think
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: it's worth talking about like two different types of casual players.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: The first is the guy who doesn't play a ton
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: of dfs, doesn't follow PGA that much, but he hears
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: about he knows he wants to bet the Masters. Then
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: he hears about, you know there there's a promo for
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: tickets into the DraftKings Millionaire Maker for twenty bucks, and
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: he wants to try to make a million dollars. That
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: is a very different type of casual player than the
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: guy who plays DFS knows DFS but doesn't like golf
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: enough to typically play PGA DFS, but he's gonna play
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: PGADFS this week because it's the Masters, and that kind
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: of person knows how to build good lineups, that kind
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: of person knows where to find good information. So he's
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: going to be watching a bunch of shows, and that
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: person is going to have a lot less of his own, like,
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: you know, his own interpretation of how guys are playing,
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: or his own convictions on certain players, and he's more
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: likely to just say, Okay, I really like Tambo Tambo's
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: high on this guy. I'm gonna play this guy. I
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: really like what Pat Meyo had to say about this guy. Right,
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: And so in that regard, the shows are on the
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: unit stry are kind of affecting ownership a little bit
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: more than usual, at least in those bigger contests. The
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: second kind of point I think as worth making is
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: that's only one type of contest. We also see a
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: bunch of like high stake, small field stuff where ownership's
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: really not going to be affected any differently this week,
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: because the guys who are playing are the guys who
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: are always playing. The only difference there is you might
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: get some like really really good DFS players who don't
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: typically dabble in PGA who are dabbling this week, and
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: because it's what they always do, they're still going to
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: enter the bigger, higher sticks contest. So I think in
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: those contests, like, there's really no difference this week. It's
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: just in those larger ones. But even then, I don't
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: think that we should change our strategy a whole lot
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: just because there are going to be some casual players
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: who are moving ownership a little bit, because we're not
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: trying to beat those players. We think that we should
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: beat those players already. We're trying to beat the better
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: DFS players in the field and figure out how to
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: leverage those guys.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I do want to add this. I'm gonna
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: use a real evang example. And again, everybody who knows me,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: this is zero results oriented and more of just like
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: a what could happen explanation to give an additional piece
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: to that. But last year's ten dollars MILLI maker, I've
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: got it up here in front of US four hundred
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: and seventy thousand, five hundred and eighty eight entries, and
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: b Baller ten forty four was the winner that took
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: it down for a million dollars. And it's not about
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: the yeah you need it ror he ended up winning
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: the event, Like I get all that, that's all gonna be.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Every different of every event is different when it comes
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: to that, but just noting it four seven k guys
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: and nine and eleven didn't go too crazy. And then
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: if you look though twenty six point eight, twenty two
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: point two, seventeen point three and then three guys that
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: were like definitely talked about Hooblin, Sung Jay and Rose,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: but not really something that people could commit to it.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: They only got to five percent ownership. So it's not
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: even just about the total ownership or the fact that
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: there were separators of the roster construction, all the things
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: that we talk about usually during this segment, as much
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: as to show you. I think some people think, like,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: if I'm going up against four hundred and seventy thousand people,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I better go nuts with my lineup, like I better
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: get the craziest thing can possibly build, and they get
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: even more aggressive. And it's not to say that that's
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: gonna be impossible to work. Anything could Anything is possible.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: If you know my friend Kevin Garnett, anything is possible.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: But if you are looking at it from just a
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: perspective of like what is possible part of that group,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: it's you could also just build kind of naturally and normally.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: And again it is a results because we're looking at
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: the board, but very similar you know, twenty six, fifteen, seventeen, three,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: round five percent, one around ten percent with those bigger
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: numbers and teens and one twenty cent. Like yes, we
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: know why Rory was needed, but it's just showing like
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: those types of builds can still get there in larger fields.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day, you still need what
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: gets there, and some of the chalk, especially like the
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: seven K range or you know up top even the
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: same way is based around like the guys being underpriced
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: or undervalued, and so you just have to it's how
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: you work with it versus just avoiding it all because
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: it's a bigger week or whatever.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely agree there and I think it it
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: just again like it reinforces the point that we don't
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: need to change what we're doing and how we approach
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: dfs this week. All the concepts that we usually like
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: they apply this week, find the balance of high probability
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: plays and separators. It always is a good recipe. It's
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: a good recipe this week as well.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and the other thing two is on a week
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: like this, and this is the next conversation. I think
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: somebody else brought it up. Somebody use this to segue.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: We don't probably have to go too deep any further
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: on that stuff. But Bryant had said, you know, since
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Bryant had said, Charlot, we appreiate you getting here before
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: the show starts. If you guys are just joining us,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: and make sure to hit that thumbs up you're watching
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: it live. I know you are right now, so hit
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: the little X on the chat button for a second.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: It will drop the chat down, tap the thumbs up,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: and then move back. But Brian says, since I'm at work,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: think i'll put my question since I'm not used to
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: high Stakes. Clearly has found their way into a very
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: nice position this week with a thirty three thirty three tickets,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: So congrats to you a good luck. But it says
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: on the thirty three to thirty three, I've heard ownership
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: tends to congregate more to certain plays. Does that normally
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: get pulled in from other chalky plays, keeping them in
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: check or the already overlooked contrarian plays. And I'll let
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: you go with that. I mean, you literally run three
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: sets of ownership over at FtM, which is phenomenal and
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: like even a high stakes one now. But you know,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: this is what confuses some people when they're like, well,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: how did Matt Fitzpatrick get to forty eight percent? Or
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: call him mark out the WEEKI WD how did he
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: get to almost fifty percent in this It's like it
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: definitely gets more congregated in these tournaments, but I'll let
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: you speak to it.
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's not the easiest question to answer because
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: I think not just like every week is different, but
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: literally every Chalky play is different, and every contrarian play
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: is different. And so essentially what I have learned in
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: high stakes ownership or single entry ownership, single entry ownership
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: is more along the lines of chucky plays get chalkier,
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: contrarian plays get more contrarian. And then there are a
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: couple exceptions to that. High stakes ownership is a little
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: bit different. High stakes ownership is going to depend a
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: little bit more on projections around the industry than personal
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: feelings and like psychological you know, biases towards and away
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: from certain players. But the other thing with high stakes
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: ownership is there's a there's a prototype type of player
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: who when a certain guy is projecting his low own
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: around the industry, everyone really like has excitement to play
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: this guy. They're always looking for an opportunity to play
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: this guy. And the reason I say, like, the reason
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: I'm staying so vague with that is because it's a
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: pro It's like a profile of player, the guy who man,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: he scores really well when he plays well, or he
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: contends a bunch, or you know, he shows up in
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: certain situations. But there isn't like an exact definition of
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: who that is, and to some degree, there aren't even
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: like perfect examples so far. This week is just something
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: to look out for. But I think the biggest thing
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: to understand is that there are also guys who are
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: going to steam like crazy because not just that they're
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: chalky already and that they become more chalky, but because
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: they're like clearing away the highest probability play in a
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: certain price range, and so anyone who lands on that
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: spot they just say, I don't need to take a
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: risk here. I'm just going with this guy, and if
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: there are like multiple Chalky players in a price range.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: So let's use an example from this week. So like
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: in the in the upper seven case, you've got Henley,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Aksha Minuuli, Seawou Kim. It's gonna be hard for any
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: of those guys to like severely boom in ownership in
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: high stakes because there are four guys there that people
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: are gonna have conviction on it, and people are gonna
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: like playing maybe one or two of those guys just
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: separate a little bit. But it's different than if like
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: only Russell Henley or only Seawoo Kim were in this
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: range and they were the clear and away best option,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: the highest probability play in this range, and then we'd
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: be talking about, Okay, this guy might get to forty percent
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: or fifty percent in high stakes because there's no one
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: like competing for that ownership with that player. Most of
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: the chalk this week actually does have a decent amount
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: of competition right around them. So I don't think we're
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: gonna see like massive differences in high stakes ownership this
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: week compared to single or even compared to MMY ownership.
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: But that's the sort of thing to watch out for
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: when you don't have access to high stakes ownership and
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: you're trying to kind of dissect it yourself.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: I got two really good examples that just elaborate on
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: that quickly, and people can take it for almost any
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: tournament at the end, but especially Bryant taking this to
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: the thirty three thirty three. I'll give you one right
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: away with the Henley example. It's no secret that Can't
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Lay is going to be much lower owned than Henley everywhere,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: but when you get to the higher stakes, it's gonna
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: be Sea Wou min Wu and then probably Henley, like
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Henley probably still goes with that and Can't Lay just
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: goes even further down. Now. I know Can't Lay is
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: only going from like seven to five or something. But
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: you may see Henley because in the larger stuff and
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: more entries and MME sets and all this stuff, where
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: it gets spread out and diversified a little bit more,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: you might see him stay around seventeen to twenty two.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna put a larger range on it. But in
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: the high stake stuff, when people say, okay, well I've
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: had enough min Wu, I've had enough Seawoo, or I've
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: got them all together. Well, now you might see Henley
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: pop up way different than like the can't lay three
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: percent delta of like eight down to five. You might
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: see a twenty percent or a nineteen percent Henley pop
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: to twenty eight or twenty nine, and another really good one.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: I think Alex just to pop in on here because
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: we're talking Masters now, is Bryson and Rom. Bryson just
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: beat Rom in their own game a few weeks ago.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: They both have pretty high ceilings. I think Rom has
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: a much higher floor, but the projection is not really
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: that far apart on the point projection, and it's immedium
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: we talked about. I'd actually argue that Bryson has the
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: higher ceiling right now, just from what we've seen over
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: the past couple of years and in these majors and
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: at the Masters particularly, if you will. But because the
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: projection's driving it, and it's ten k flat and all
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: these different reasons for Rom, you might see Rom be
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: thirty five to forty in the thirty three to thirty
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: three this week, and you might see Bryson be ten
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: to fifteen because it just that is such a delta,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: but it's like it's all decided based on the projection
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: and what people. Well, I can be a bit safer
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: because this no one. You can't be saying if Bryson
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: finally find what finds a way to get it done
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: here and is needed, well, that just killed thirty to
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: forty percent of the lineups, and honestly we'll never be
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: able to say the guy hit one shot but back
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: injury aside and sad scene of like hitting a shot
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: in w Ding. I personally loved having Xander the week
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: in my forty four to forty four I had one
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: ticket that way, I had Xander and Hedeki squeezed between
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: Kawa and Seawo, and I know I'm not wishing injury
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: on someone. I hope we played the whole event healthy.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: I still liked having the other side of that with
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: the squeezed in between ers versus having the most popular
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: dudes in the most popular build up top and then
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: I put it with a six to zero run to
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: try and make it work in my favors. Spoilerler did
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: not work in my favor, but just noting it, those
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: are the things that you'd be looking at for these
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: tournament spots. Anything else you got to add on that.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: If not, we'll keep it moving.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: No, I think you covered it all right.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: I would say this one's a little bit more personal
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: preference than We'll round this segment out and get to
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: some of the stuff for this week with the chalk builds.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: All I was gonna say to finish up my last
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: point on the previous comment about the congregated ownership is
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: on a week like this, I gave you. I just
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: gave you an example like Bryson. Who else can I
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: use here? Bryson, Justin Rose, Patrick Reid, Like if any
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: of those three are involved on a Sunday at the Masters,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: are you shocked? Not at all? They legit just cannot
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: be played to a big enough number here because of
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: the other people and golfers that are around them. And
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: you'll find that in every range. If you like Hoblin,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: if you like Brooks, if you like Speith, if you
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: like J. T. Lowry, like, these guys are all have
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: shown up some se months around here at some point
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: in their career. They've got good hands around the greens.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: If we're gonna have a fast and firm setup. We've
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: seen these guys show up in opens and major champs.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: Some of them are Lowry and Speith are Open champions,
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: like they've shown up there. It's like any of these
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: guys could show up for this stuff, but they just
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: cannot be played enough. So that's where like when I
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: feel like people are looking at ranges, it doesn't mean
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: you got to load up six of them. It means
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: and when I show you guys the stone later on,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: for anybody who's never seen it, we have it on
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: the stone. We still have it on the stone two
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: point zero. But it's like high leverage just because they're
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: color coded. It's saying like, you know, a speet this week,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: if he actually has eight percent in high stakes, could
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: be high leverage. You don't got to get six high
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: leverage plays just because they're all color coded. And it
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside, shut out to
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: our brother degenerate seventy five up and have them watching
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: down like that's the whole point of bringing this up.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: It's like, you don't need to look for all that
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: just because it makes you feel good. It's just knowing
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: what you're doing with your builds as a whole, and Alex,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: you always do a really good job breaking that down.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Did you have any opinion here on Justin's point, I
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: think it's more personal preference, but he is kind of
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: leaning towards Look, I'm playing five macs specifically, do you
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: like to lock in guys? I mean, you've talked about
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: three max as a single Andrew or you're very comfortable
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: locking in more guys. But I feel like it's more
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: like you need a reason to go that way than
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: to just do it. To do it, and I'll let
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: you elaborate if you want, we'll move off.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you just nailed it there. I think
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: the mistake is making the decision of whether you want
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: to lock in four or five guys and then just
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: mix and match from there, or having a big pool
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: and having very different lineup. I think the mistake is
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: making that decision ahead of time and not letting your
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: conviction on players this week. Or maybe you have multiple
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: strategies that you feel good about letting that dictate it.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: So for example, like maybe this week you have four
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: guys that you absolutely love and you know that you
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: want to play those four guys, and then the final
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: two spots, man, you're torn, like, there are so many
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: good options. I could do this TWOV two or I
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: could do that TV two. Okay, Now, maybe you take
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: three lineups to have three options of the twov two.
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: But then maybe you also have this thought in the
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: back of your mind, like, hey, you know, driving distance
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: isn't really predictive at Augusta, but what if it is
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: this year? What if the fact that there's not a
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: whole lot of wind gives guys more control off the
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: tee than usual, So accuracy means a little bit less,
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: which boosts the predictive value of distance, because those guys
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: can just kind of take driver and control their golf
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: ball a little bit more than they usually do around here.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: And then maybe the super firm conditions that it seems
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: like everyone's kind of expecting, maybe that means that being
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: closer to the green and being able to launch the
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: ball and spin the ball a ton, which is correlated
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: with distance, really comes to fruition. And this is just
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: a week where distance matters more than it has it
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: a gust day in like the last ten years. So
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: maybe you take a fourth lineup and you throw a
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: distance stack in there. So that's the way that I
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: think you want to make these decisions. And however, many
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: players that means you end up with and whatever exposure
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: that means you end up with for certain players, so
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: be it. But let the convictions that you have and
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: the strategies that you want to take dictate it instead
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: of designing ahead of time. I'm going to play twenty
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: guys in my three max or I'm only going to
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: mix and match with these last two spots.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, if you want to go to my x account
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: at Totech and Tambo and then click the articles button,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: you can go to one of those there as well.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: It's the most recent one that I put up where
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: it talks about everything you just said, like let the
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: week bring it to you and whatever you want to
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: roll with run it from there. So a quick shout
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: out here, I want to say, what's up to? Where
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: would I just see this one? Michael hillmet Yeah, I
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: appreciate you just here from Pat show we were on
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: yesterday with Pat. You guys haven't checked that out, you
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: can go do so on the male media networks. I'd
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: love the work you guys do, and thanks for the
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: great insight in week out. So we appreciate you. Exter
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: acts about like Scotty and Bryson. We'll definitely get to that.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: We appreciate you always jumping in. But when we get
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: to sort of the chalk bils like, no one's really
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: landing up there on Scotty in general, Rory in general,
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Bryson somewhat, but not because of Rom. So we'll get
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: to that. But I do want to add one more
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: take here, Alex. I know we talked offline about this.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: I think people will care because it's all related to
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: the Master. So we're into the Master's stuff already here,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: earlier than usual for the ones that complain, but just
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: noting it. I know he's kidding and shut up to
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: my guy, Nick, I hope all as well with you,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: my friend, but he says, so should I go all
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: live guys? He's not serious, But I do think the
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: Live Guys is a conversation piece for a second. Here,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: this is the first look people will get at live guys.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: We know when we do the one and done segment
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: near the end, it's like, yes, you're gonna see Rom
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: and read. Actually I now do the read thing, but
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: people typically that's what you would see in the past,
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: is like Rom read Cam Smith. Guys like that now
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: read no longer would live But just saying it, Who
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: knows when we'll see him back. So it's like one
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: of the opportunities you get that you could actually use
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: read this week, but just notice what's your thoughts on
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: the Live guys coming over and how to attack that
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: mainframe there, because most of them haven't played right in
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: a little while.
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they haven't played as much recently, and when they did,
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: they were overseas. I think the first thing that I
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: like to do, and one of the differences like this
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: year and even last year compared to when Live first started,
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: when Live was first created, is we have better data
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: on these guys than we have in the past, and
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: so you can go to you know, the data golf
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: player profiles page and you can look at what Rom
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: has done. And one of the things that I really
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: like doing is looking at the total strokes gained that
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: he's got in each event. Because what people are saying
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: about Rom right now, I think is a little bit inaccurate,
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: and that is they're saying that nobody in the world
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: is playing as well as this guy, No one's playing
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: as consistent as this guy. The latter part is true,
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: no one has played as consistently well as Rom so
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: far this year. He's finished second, second, he's won finish
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: fifth and then finished second again. But when you look
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: at his true strokes gained per round, we're looking at
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: two point seven two point six, three point one one
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: one point nine three point one. For some context here,
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: let's go to a guy on the PGA Tour who's
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: played really good golf this year, and let's see starting
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: at the WM. Actually, yeah, we'll start at the WM
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: two point eight two point seven, one point three point three,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: four point one, three point two. Fitzpatrick is this second guy,
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: and that four point one was second place at the Players.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: So Rom has topped out at like three point one
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: this year, and understand that three point one is not
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: going to win the Masters. If you think that Rom
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: is winning this week, you have to feel like he's
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: gonna go and play his best week of the season
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: and something that he hasn't done in quite some time,
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: because it's going to take a lot more than what
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: it's taken to contend on LIV to contend and win
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: a green jacket here. And so I think that's the
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: first thing I want to clear up. And that's why
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: to me, I think I actually like Bryson a little
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: bit more than Rom because Bryson ceiling has been better.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: And when you look our simulation numbers over at FtM Fantasy,
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: you see Ram has the advantage in top five odds,
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: top ten odds, top twenty odds, a massive advantage in
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: top forty odds, and a massive advantage in made cut
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: odds over Bryson. But then you get to the win
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: odds John rom four point nine percent, Bryson eight point
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: one percent, the second best win odds in the field.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: And so when someone has that much win equity, and
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: I do think they're gonna slip through the cracks, as
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: I do with Bryson this week, the key becomes really
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: really interesting as a starting point for lineups.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, and I think he's definitely a you know,
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: I don't think you would have been my lane at
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: the end. But just noting from a factor of what
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: I've tried to say this whole time, I could you
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: could argue a ton of different things in his favor.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: And what's interesting is even the way the projections typically
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: treat him, it's almost like he's a Brooks, Like you
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: know how Brooks gets put in these zones and like
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: he gets docked like eight points or whatever and whatever
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: for maybe for good reason, obviously shown a little bit
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: of signs of life lately. I'm not saying to go
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: against Brooks here. I think it's a good spot. If
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: you like him, he's gonna be overlooked. But I'm just
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: saying it's almost like the projections naturally give that to Bryson,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: and it's like, how bad is he really? He's been fine,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: so he's not to me the same at all, and
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: he's actually got better here over time and so on
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: and so forth. It's there's risk involved with lots of
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: different options, but I think that's just part of it
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: being brought up, all right.
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: I think one of the big misconceptions about Bryson has
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: been number one, that his short game kind of falls
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: short of some of the other elite players. His short
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: game's fine, it's actually pretty solid. Where he really does
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: fall short from most of the other elite players is
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: his iron play. And iron play is extremely predictive here.
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: But Bryson also has a superhuman skill, which is what
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: he does off the tee. He's the longest player in
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: the field. He's also one of the most accurate players
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: in the field. And so when we talk about like
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: distance not being super predictive, at Augusta. What that means
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: is that on average players who gain strokes with their
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: distance it's not going to translate as well here. But
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: on average doesn't apply to Bryson because Bryson is nowhere
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: near average. He's an outlier with his distance and the
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: fact that he can take advantage of that distance while
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: still driving it accurately and hitting fairways. It's just a
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: massive advantage. And so it is true that he's not
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: as good with his irons as almost any of the
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: other elite players. But when he hits an okay shot
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: from one forty out in the middle of the fairway
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: and his peers are hitting from one eighty and one ninety,
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: guess what. His subpar average type approach play is still
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: going to give him as many chances, if not more,
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: than the guys who are hitting from one eighty to
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: one ninety. So he creates such an advantage off the tee,
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: and that, I think is why we see him contend
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: so often, because when the driver's working, all he needs
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: from the iron play is to not lose the advantage
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: that he just gained off the tee, and then he's
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: good enough around the greens and he's a very good putter.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: So he just he has that superhuman skill set. I mean,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: he's he's longer and more accurate than Rory off the
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: tee and we pretty much universally view Rory as one of,
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: if not the best drivers of the golf ball in
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: the history of the game.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and if you remember last year, Bryson got away
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: with a lot with those irons and then they obviously
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: went away with from finally on Sunday, it was like
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: he fell down the board. But if that stuff's rolling
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: for him, it's rolling, and it's not like any of
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the other stuff is badly so, especially the off the
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: t stuff just naturally. Ryan mentions about, like you know,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: earlier tougher courses, I do factor strength the field a
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: lot more than most and then also like major ups
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: like capabilities things like that, So I think that's important
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: to consider. But this one was brought up here and
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: I know you hit on it yesterday, but maybe want
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: to spend just a little little on this. He said
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: to you, I have heard you both mock all the
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: trends that are out there. I have mocked trends myself,
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: especially in the NFL. But some of the Master's trends
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: actually seem to have deeper data behind them. You did
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: hit on this yesterday. If you could just give maybe
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: the Coles notes as the saying goes like the smaller
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: version of it, So we don't, I mean, they want
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: to watch it, go back to the Male Media Network show.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: But just what was your your added two cents on
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: this because I thought it was dead on.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: So it's it's very similar to the conversations that we've
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: had about course fit. And I made this point on
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: the show yesterday with Pat as well. If you, as
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: Tambo just said, if you want like a deeper kind
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: of conversation about it than what we're probably going to
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: go here in answering this question, go check that out.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: But and similar to the course fit discussion in the
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: sense that there is some signal here, but the signal
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: that you're getting is mostly who's good at golf, and
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: the vast majority of those trends that seem like they
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: really mean something. What they're saying is, hey, you know
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: who does well at Augusta, Guys who are good at golf,
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: Guys who have played well. We already know that even
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: things like you know guys have even the trends that
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: are something along the lines of guys have had x
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: amount of starts already at the Masters, or they've you know,
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: this is their sixth or seventh or eighth time playing
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: the Masters. Guess who gets to play the Masters? That
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: often guys who are really good at golf and consistently
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: earn their way back to the Masters. So what the
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: signal that you're getting is signal that we are already
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: capturing with all of our other data, all projections are
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: capturing who's good at golf and who's playing well. And
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: the other big one that the other big point that
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: I made yesterday is like, we can look at the
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: course fit model this week and we can see accuracy, approach,
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: play around the green, play putting. All of these stats
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: are more predictive than usual, which means you take two
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: players who are a full stroke apart in a skill
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: set and you place them at AUGUSTA and that full stroke
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: P round becomes one point five stroke p round in
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: indifference here. And so even this even like the thought
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: of okay, there's something about the Masters that really brings
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: the better players to the top, and the guys in
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: the middle of the pack just don't have the chance
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: to win that they usually have. That is also being
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: accounted for if you are doing projections and simulations well,
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: which I believe that we are at FTN And you'll
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: see that when you look at the win probabilities. Guys
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: who have been you know, one and a half percent
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: two percent in some other tournaments, they're down at one percent.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: Guys who have been five percent in past tournaments, they're
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: actually up at eight percent. Like Bryson or you know, Scott,
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: he's at one of his higher win probabilities of the
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: year so far this season, despite the fact that he
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: hasn't played as well. Why because that skill difference between
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: him and the rest of the field is magnified on
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: this golf course. And so the basic summary here of
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: all this trend's analysis is that you're not learning anything
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: that you don't already know, and that already isn't being
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: captured by the data and stuff that you're looking at,
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: provided you were somebody who puts a lot of time
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: and effort into your own research. Here in PGADFS.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and Scar says the best to Newsplash, they were
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: all really good at golf. And I gotta give a
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Scar a shout out ship at Nation Memory. Actually one
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: speaking about knowing how to win these million makers. There's
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: his million dollar win last year. Single bullet through that
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: thing and got it to the top. So shout out
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: the scar. But I think it inverses the conversation a
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: little bit as well. Alex of like when at like
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: the most random course that has nothing to do with
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: the Gusta National, people like man seems like this one
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: really lines up with the Masters. It's like, No, the
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: really good golfers that get to play at the Masters
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: all the time do really good at other places. So
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: if you really wanted to do it at other majors
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: and at other events where they're all in the tournament together,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: you could build Masters correlated light up because you're just
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: building with It's like the newslash. You're building with good golfers.
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: You're not really using Masters good golfers. It's like they're
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: all good golfers. They get here, so good point.
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: The last thing I'll say about the trends is if
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: you are somebody who wants to use them despite what
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: they're saying, I I go for it, right, But I
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: think the right way to do it is to instead
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: of say, okay, this is the trend. What golfers fit it?
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: Ask instead, what does this trend tell me? Does it
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: tell me simply that good golfers play well here, or
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: does it say something else that you know can be
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: maybe a little bit more helpful, like Okay, guys who
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: have contended here, or guys who have contended already this
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: season do well. Maybe there you could take some type
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: of interpretation to say, Okay, it's helped to have been
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: in the moment so far this season. It's helped to
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: have felt the stress and the pressure of trying to
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: close a golf tournament, because once you get into the
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: final round of the Masters, if you're anywhere near the lead,
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: you're gonna be something you haven't felt yet this season,
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: even if you've been in contention, because contention and the
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: Masters is different, and maybe it just helps to prepare
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: you to be in that. But there, the question to
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: me isn't okay, so who has been in contention? The
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: question is who is best prepared to handle the pressure
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: of the Masters? And there I can look at, Okay,
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: who's done well with the Ryder Cup, who's done well
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: in past major championships, who's felt major pressure before coming
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: down the stretching contention. So I think even if you
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: do take something from the trends, there's a better way
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: to answer who that should point you towards than simply
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: looking at who perfectly fits that trend, because then you're
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: just tossing names out the window that really deserve to
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: be in the conversation.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and just you know, when people, you know, look
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: at to talk about all the good golfers did well,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: just bring it up last year again where the field
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: was on the point scored, Like, yeah, people were on Rory,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: but only seventeen or fifteen percent were on Red or Bryson.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: People were disrespecting, you know, justin Rose, people were disrespecting
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: my boy Sung Jay. You know, there was at least
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit of love for oh yeah, seven percent
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: in sixty four hundred, but like not enough and he
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: gets you eighty five point. Look at the six percents,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: the six percent, the five percent. So there's a lot
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: of people that liked a lot of people that didn't
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: do anything for them at all. So as much as
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: we talk about how predictive it is, and we know,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: everything gets back to there's a lot of really good golfers,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are saying Bryson is Way is
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: worth way less than Rom on a chart this week
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: when they're building the line up and starting when and
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: Rom can definitely get them. That's why the ownership stems there.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: Rom could be this year's Rory and the pricing was
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: different last year you only had a twelve four Scotty.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: So you see how the roster construction stuff we're about
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: to get to in a minute for this week and
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: compare it to the masters here. This changes the composition
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: of the rosters when these guys are affordable and you
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: still have a pretty heavy seven and six K range
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: that you can use guys from. Now, it's a lot different.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Where somebody said it earlier about Scotty, it was like
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: where was it? I might have lost it. But somebody
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: said something about like Scotty getting crushed here, and it's like,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: you know, he's going to be so low owned he
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: someone said one of the sharps on Scotty, so I'll
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: give it to them. He could be as low as
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: five percent in the high stake stuff. You could be
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: eight percent in like the the mid range and singall
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: entry stuff, and he could be like twelve to fifteen
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: in the regular tournaments because people will still eventually land
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: on them, I'm sure. But it's not just about Scotty.
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: It's what do the rest of the lineups do for you?
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: And how can you build them? And you'll see when
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: we get to that in a second. It's not as
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: easy as you think. It's way easier to build a
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: rom Fitzpatrick lineup and just fill it out with the
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: value plays in the seven K range anything else you
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: want to add there at all, and then we'll get
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: into the chalk build. I got it.
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, can you sort by points again? And the scroll
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: down a little bit?
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: I can't. Yes, let me go back.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of people would look at this
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: and they'd say, oh, man, there were four guys who
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: are really chalking the top six? What is surprised? Like
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: so much chuck hit well? As we go down and
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: we look at guys who struggled, so even go maybe
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: I'll do this.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: Though if I go by field, it's like, look like
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: thirty three, twenty four, twenty four, eighteen fifty eights, ain't
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: cutting it here at ninety six hundred exac fifty sevens
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: ain't cutting it at eighty eight hundred fifty eight at
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: almost nine twenty points at seventy one hundred, like a
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: bunch of these guys got crushed eighteen points.
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: And some of these guys were like the clear most
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: popular option in their price range, and so you know,
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: it's not just about how popular was the guy, but
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: it was how much did the field prefer this player
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: to anyone else in his price range? And some of
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: the like clear cut top priorities in price ranges failed.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: And that's what we see every year at the Masters
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: because this golf course is really difficult and some guys
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: just aren't going to be able to execute. Some guys
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: aren't going to handle the pressure that well. And so
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: it's just one of those things that, like sometimes you
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: think about when players in the past have done well
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: in major championships and they were chalking, you just think, oh, man,
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: next time, I just got to play the guys that
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: I know are going to play well. We don't know
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: anything about any of these guys. We have high confidence
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: in some, lower confidence in others. But it's really important,
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: especially this week, to just keep in mind every player
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: has a range of outcomes, and that range of outcomes
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: includes cuts and includes wins and anything in between can happen,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: and so there's nobody that you have to play. There's
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: nobody that you have to fade. If you want to
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: take chances on guys, you can. It's just a really,
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: really fun week, not just because it's the Masters, but
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: also because it's like one of the most fascinating DFS
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: puzzles of the year.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I personally love it. I think it's gonna be good.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the chalk Bill. We'll get into it now.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: Shout out to everybody in the chat. Appreciate all the
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: good questions coming in early. By the way, you can
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: keep throwing them in there. Make sure to hit that
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: thumbs up. I will be showing the stone two point
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: zero over at ship in Nation. But we'll get through
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: the normal stuff as we usually do first, and maybe
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about how to apply some of this. But
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: quickly on this, I'll tell you what Alex, I think
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: we've done this. However, any weeks it's been now, if
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: he's like three months or two and a half months, whatever,
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: it's like. Usually there's been like the Scotty weeks that
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: are a bigger conversation. Some weeks like it's oh man,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: I see a couple different chalk builds. I see one
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: this week, and there's like two slight variations of it.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: But like you legit can pretty much land on the
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: Rom Fitzpatrick lineup quite easily here, or you could land
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: on the Rom Xander lineup where the Rom Fitzpatrick lannerp
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: I have it just I'll give it to you. Tell
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: me what you think. Rom Fitzpatrick. This is the double
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: eight K one with Bobby Mack because it lands you
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: them on like Sea, wou Min Wu and McNeely. Mcneely's
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: popping at seventy two hundred in the projections. But if
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: you wanted to take Fitzpatrick up to again, I just
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: think Fitzpatrick lands in it. But if you didn't, if
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: you want to take Fitzpatrick up to Xander, who I
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: think some are very comfortable with, it, lands you back
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: down around Corey Conners and you'd end up with like
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: Rom Xander Connor, seawou Min Wu McNeely. I'm just saying
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: three to four seven K guys, and those being some
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: of them. Seems pretty obvious. Rom seems pretty obvious up top,
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick up the middle. So that's why I went with
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: the Fitzpatrick version. But it seems like we're in the
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: right ballpark here. What's your thoughts?
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the first one that I put in
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: as what I think the talk is gonna build is
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: like Rom fits Henley, Seawou, min Wu and then af
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: she Batiya. That leaves one hundred, and like those guys
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: are going to be so popular. In fact, I'm pretty
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: confident the six most popular plays are going to be
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: Rom fits, Henley, Seawou, Minwu, and Xander, which obviously you
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: can't fit. That's seventeen hundred dollars too expensive, But that
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: means that, like you could build this lineup and you're
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: a one v one away from something that does work.
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: Maybe you're probably a two v two if the thing
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: that you want to come down from is Henley, Seewoo
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: or Minweu, where you're like, you're really locked on that
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: trio of Rom, Shaffley Fitzpatrick. But that's still doable, and
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: we're going to see lineups like that, and so you
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: know that could be like Rom fits Shoffley, and then
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: you go to that seventy two hundred dollars range, where
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: again you have another pocket of multiple popular players McNeely,
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: Adam Scott, and then you have your choice of English
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: or JJ Spahn coming off the win. So like, there
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: are going to be so many lineups that look like this,
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: that are centered around this pocket of seven K guys
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: and then this pocket of the like upper eight to
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: ten K range. And and as you said, it's so
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: clear this week that's going to be the lineup Like
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: this isn't a week where oh, we're going to see
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: something like this, and then we're also going to see
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: how this that look like that. No, the fast majority
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: of lineups are going to look like this. Even if
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: the player preferences change, Even if someone doesn't want Rom
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: and Shoftley they instead want, you know, Bryson and Tommy
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: Fleetwood or something like that, you're still in the exact
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: same price range. So very little is going to change
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: in terms of roster construction. That's what we're looking at
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: this week, and it's it. Then it does present a
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: challenge like do you want to get different simply by
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: picking different players or do you want to get different
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: by going to a different roster construction? And what does
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: that actually look like because this type of roster construction,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: it's kind of hard to get different than it, because
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: if you don't want to go all the way up,
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: like well, you're just going to go like hyperbalance or something,
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: because every other like every other type of lineup kind
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: of fits in this mold.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and one quick note to our guys, like this
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: is the thing. I think cam Young is gonna get
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: ownership for sure. I think Fleetwood could get some ownership two,
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: especially as we get to the higher stakes. But that's
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: gonna happen more when people get to the secondary versions.
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: Like we just said, there's just no chance they fit
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: into that first build that we just talked about. The
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: mold is clear cut. And the reason I brought up
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: last year's stuff again, it's not about nothing new with
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: the results. Now. This is just why I love doing
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: this show, is because it's like two buddies just get
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: to talk. Some like it, some don't. We don't care,
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: like it's what we like to talk about. The ones
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: that love it seem to love it. We appreciate you,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: but just noting it is like everything we talk about
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: on previous shows, Alex, it often comes to fruition. And
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: you've talked a ton this season with the Scottie pricing
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: at fourteen four typically or in that fourteen upper range
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: or low fourteen's mid fourteen's range. You're like, well, there's
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: the combinatorial ownership of like if this, then the bloat
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: happens down here because of that. And if you look
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: at last year, it's no different, and we just explained
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: it for this year. If you look at Ram or
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Xander or wherever you end up going, even when you
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: go to like a rom Cam young line up to
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: our guy stats point here, he's definitely getting that tertiary
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: secondary type ownership. He won't be in the most common builds,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: but he'd be in that second grouping of them. You
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: still land in that upper seven k range. And if
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: you look at last year, it was easy to get
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: to Scotty and Rory because they weren't There was no
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: fourteen four. There was twelve four on Scotty. And so
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: if you look how this plays out, Okay, you get
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: your one guy below them, who is Morikawa. Then you
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: get all your little secondary guys you know, you're fourteen's,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: your fifteens, thirteen to fifteen whatever, right, then you go
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: down to the bottom. And I had it here, but
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: you could see it in this version Obviously if this
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: year at Scotty at fourteen four you could still get
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: to like a six k guys in the low sevens. Well,
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: obviously at twelve four you land in this seven k
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: range here, well, what do you know eighteen thirteen, ten, seventeen,
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: twenty one, eleven, All right, where would that put them? Well,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: that actually leave them some money left over all right,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: where does that land them? Twenty seventeen, twenty two. So
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: that's the beauty of this tournament and being able to
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: like have more information going in you can see how
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: others are playing and then you to apply towards what
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: you're building with your lineups. And that's why we have
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: the leverage focus. That's what we're looking at it from
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: a single entry MME perspective and taking on different things.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: And so many people are likely to take on all
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: these options. And look when you go to the points here,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: again nothing with the results, just it is the results
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: to show the example. It's like if you didn't have
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: by the way, Zach Johnson did end up in like
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: the Megamillie winner last year at sixty two hundred, but
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: just noting like a lot of these five percenters or
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: one percenters It's like you didn't necessarily have to find
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: those to get it right, because while these are the
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: ones that showed up at the top of the board,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: it wasn't easy for them to be in every type
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: of lineup. So there was tournaments where they didn't show up,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: especially for those playing like two hundred dollars single entries
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: things like that, Like they show up in some not
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: in others because some took less, took the risk on that.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: It's just a product of that. But I thought I
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: would point that out as we get into it. So
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: all right, let's hop back in.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: Well, No, one other thing I want to mention on
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: on Cam young Is. We had the discussion earlier about
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: like certain guys who end up higher in high stakes.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: Cam young Is is definitely one of those guys who like,
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: if you see a reason to play this guy, you're
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: gonna play him. And that's how the field kind of
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: approaches him. And so if the field looks at ownership
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: throughout the day and tonight and they see, oh man,
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: Cam is clearly not getting as much as Xander or
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: rom or I Fitzpatrick, I get a chance to play
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: Cam Young as somewhat contrarian or at least like as
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: a pivot off of those guys, Well, then you end
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: up seeing Cam Young at twenty five percent or thirty percent,
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: especially in high stakes single entry stuff. And to that point,
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: like we already have we have Cam at seventeen percent
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: in MMY, twenty percent in single entry, twenty four percent
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: in high stakes right now, and so we're already kind
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: of factoring that in. But Xander goes even higher. Xander
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: goes to thirty four percent in high stakes. Rom goes
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: to thirty eight percent in high stakes, and that again
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: kind of comes to this point that this is the
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: type of build that people are really locked in on
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: because there's just such a high confidence right now from
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: the field, especially in those two guys Rom and Xander,
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: where everyone kind of feels like, you know, if you
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: look at them, like you know, golf Dye just rankings
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: for example, you're gonna see those guys at two three
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: right behind Scotty and they're not priced that way. And
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: so when people feel that confident in somebody, they're going
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: to play them when they feel like they're getting a
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: really big price discount, especially like in the ordering of things,
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: So they think they think if someone thinks that John
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: ram is the second most likely player in the field
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: to win, or the second best player in this field,
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: and he's sixteen hundred dollars cheaper than the second highest
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: priced player. They think I'm getting sixteen hundred dollars worth
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: of value on this guy, and they play him at
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: a really high rate. And so this the nice thing
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: about the mass is this is one of the weeks
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: where I think projecting ownership is actually on the easier
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: side of things, just because you get these price points
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: where it's like very clear that people think they're getting
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: a ton of value.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: It's also why it's critical to little plug here. But
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: like when you have accurate ownership, which you do at FDN,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: we do at ship Nation, people are using it, so
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: I are seeing those logos at the top of the leaderboards.
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: But especially if you're using a true optimizer, that's also
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: calculating and if you're used especially if you're using contest
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: sims that type of thing, Like if you're using that,
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: that's when it becomes that much more important because you're saying, look,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: I've got the most accurate field, I've got the most
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: accurate projections in ownership. I'm putting those two together, and
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: it's no shot at anybody. But like a lineup generator
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: is just building lineups with your pool. If you can
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: take your pool, and I know the projections and ownership
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: already have it baked in. This is what I'm going
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: to show on the Stone two point zer here in
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But just to say it, it's I
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: still like to control my destiny. In the end, my
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: projections and my ownership will do the work within my
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: optimizer of sabersim. But I use the Stone on one screen.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: I break down all the information I bring it across
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: and say, okay, here's my player pool. Now I want it.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: That's the gas. I'm the driver. I'm the gas. Now
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: my Ferrari over here is going to be able to
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: take this and actually drive it to the finish line,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: hopefully by putting it together in a good way. But
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: I still want to control what goes into my vehicle.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: And that's the point of this, all this whole conversation,
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: and this this one will apply to every week, but
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: also really good for this week. So I'm glad STAT
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: brought this up. So I'm sure you'll get there. But
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: Scotty is borderline unplayable at his salary and not just
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: again a lot of people out there would say this
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: and just have a take. Well, yeah, because he just
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: had a kid, like Remy was just born, or you know,
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: he hasn't been that good lately. He looks like he's
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: turning fifty now with that hair up top. Like you
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: can make all these cases about Scotty and make fun
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: of him whatever you want to do. But the key
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: component here is the field's finally caught on. Just so
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: you know, I lost battle number one and then turned
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: quickly with my friend Alex here, but he was on
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: this from the very first week we did the show.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: It's like, at that price point, there's too many other
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: factors that change nothing that we don't have the five
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: K range anymore, which it wasn't even with the using
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: the five k's. Nobody used the five k's really ever.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: It was about forcing the eights to the sevens, the
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: sevens to the sixes, and the sixes to the fives
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: or it was like, okay, I can use seven K guys,
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: now that should be in the eight K. With Scotty
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: at twelve four, well, now that he's fourteen four, not
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: only do we not not only do you get that
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: two K increase, like I just showed you, But we
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: also don't have anything being pushed that far down outside
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: of the proclaimed values in the seven K range that
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: are kind of just being like put on a pedestal
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: and maybe for good reason. I'll add more to that
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: in a second, but do you want to add anything
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: onto this one? I'm obviously like, even if Scotty wins here,
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: there's actually a chance he might not be in the
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: in like the mega or the high stake single entries
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: things like that, because you will need all five other pieces. Correct.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we were close to having Scotty being
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: really really viable this week, and I mean we've gone
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: and projected like five percent in high stakes right now.
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: Son even still like it's at least we're thinking about
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: or trying to build and seeing if you like it.
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: But I think the key is if you could build
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: Scotti lineups this week where the next place you went
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: to is that like Henley Sea Wu min Wu kind
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: of tier and you've got multiple of those guys, and
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: then you could still fill it out with low seven
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: K guys or upper six K guys that you felt
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: really good about. I'd be in on Scotty lineups this week.
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: The problem is that Henley, Seawu Minwu range is kind
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: of off the table unless you feel good about multiple
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: six K guys, and I don't feel good about any
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: six K guys, so I don't know how I'm gonna
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: find two six K guys that I feel good about.
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: So yeah, the I'm with him. I think the Scotti.
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: The Scotti lineups are just really difficult to do, but man,
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: they were close this week. This is the closest I've
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: been to like actively wanting to play Scotty and feeling
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: great about the entire lineup, And it's just like a
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: few hundred dollars short. If Henley and Seawu were seventy
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: six and seventy five instead of seventy nine and seventy eight,
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: if Minwu was seventy four instead of seventy seven, it'd
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: be really really doable this week.
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: That's how close it is. I think Ted brings up
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: a good point here. You know, he keeps hearing the
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: pricing is soft. That makes his fourteen K tag even
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: more absurd. Like that, that's the kind of the tricky part.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: Like you could say, like for sure, Seawou at seventy eight,
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: Min Wu at seventy seven, Jacob Bridgeman down there at
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: seventy four, playing in some really tough events, winning the
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: Genesis like a big boy event, and like being involved
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: in API and these other ones coming in where it's
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: like it still can make it work close, but you
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: gotta remember you're still punting off two guys into the
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: six k range at that point, and you still probably
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: have two, if not three chockey guys up the middle
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: where it's like not necessarily that. The biggest thing I
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: would say, just going back to my take I wanted
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: to give was if you really like, I think what
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: people do here a lot alex is they'll say, okay,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: and this is talking about leveraging the chalk builds. We're
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: at the right section here. But like if they're like, oh,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: you know what, there's no way I can play Min
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: Wu at seventy seven hundred, There's no way I could
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: play Sea Wu at seventy eight. They like everything about
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: this player, but they don't like their ownership. But then
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: they're not thinking about other ways you can get different.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: And I tried to show it in the article I
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: brought out when Giant Squid won The millie was that
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: Brandon Adams had sixteen lineups in the Mega high Stakes
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: stuff and he still had Mori Kawa in half them,
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: and it sucks that Marikawa WD and he got nothing
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: out of those lineups. He still ended up having a
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: great week, making one hundred and eighty seven thousand profit.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: But his more Akawa lineups were never built like Morikala
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: lineups that would be bad. They were built as good
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: Mara Cala lineups, saying, look, we know this guy is
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: popular first, so just keep that in mind. If you're
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: playing RAM this week, just think about the rest of it.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: Most people are playing Rom with a nine K and down,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: or Rom with fits and down, or Rom with two
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: to three of the upper seven K range. How can
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: you play Rom? Somebody said earlier. I'm not saying this
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: is the be all end all. I'm explaining the concept
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: because the whole show's about finding your own lane. But
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: somebody said, what about playing two six K guys without
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Rory and Scotty. That could be a great build to
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: build RAM into, because it's like you're gonna land in
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: a different zone if I just do a two second
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: thing here and start my lineup with who's two popular
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: six K guys, you would say, just even using popular
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: ones together.
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: Like they're arned any but Kidiyama and.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: Are probably the use that's for the sake of like, yeah,
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: they're three to five, you know they're five percent probably,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: but just noting it, it's like you automatically land after
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: those three guys Rom, Kittyama and Gerar. Just for this example,
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: you've got eighty eight hundred left to build. Even if
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: you were to put one of Henley in there. Let's
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: just say you now have ninety three hundred a ram
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: with two nine k's and only one of those seven
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: K guys with two low owned six's. Anything with five
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: thousand or less entrance in it, honestly maybe better for
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: like two thousand or less, but just saying it, I
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: think any of like the two hundred dollars single entry
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: or down, and I know there's some bigger ones this week,
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: I still think you're probably fine with that, right, and
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: not just from like not being duped, but like you
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: kind of have separation or you're gonna have two plays
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: at five percent, you're gonna have a different construction. Your
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: nine K guy could still be low owned if not
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: both of them, like, there's so many different ways you
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: can go with that build, where I think, if you
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: like rom you could still run that.
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, And then I think the other like
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: really kind of interesting thought of how to leverage the
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: truck build is to say, Okay, what if I don't
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: start my lineups where most people are starting at rom
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: Olberg or Shoftley or cam Young or Tommy, But like,
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: what if I go like hyper balance and start with
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: Pidecki or something or Rose or Read And now I'm
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: saving money off of those most popular starting points. And
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: so instead of having you know, my worst guy in
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: the lineup as like a JJ Spahn or a Mat
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: McNeely or Ryan Fox or someone in that price range,
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: my worst guy is that se Wou or Russell Henley
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: type of like range there. And that to me is
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: an interesting thought where I will explore that a little
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: bit more. And I think one one thing that makes
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: that bible is like when I look at Rose, when
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: I look at Reid, I do think, Wow, those guys
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: are overpriced. They're not of the quality of the other
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: guys around them. They don't deserve to be nine thousand dollars.
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: But I do get why they're priced here because if
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: they were eight thousand dollars, they'd be really popular. So
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: DraftKings essentially said, we know these guys are going to
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: be really, really popular if we price them any lower,
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: we'll put them in a range where it makes people
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: think and it makes people like feel like they're taking
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: a risk to fight the master's history that they come with.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: But I'm a little bit more okay playing guys that
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: I know are overpriced if number one, the ownership is good,
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: and number two, if I feel like I've got multiple
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: guys in my lineup who are very clearly underpriced. Cause
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: if like let's say Henley, Seawoo, Kim Min will Lee,
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: Corey Connors, if that range was all one thousand dollars
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: more expensive than they are, they'd still be solid plays.
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: They'd still be some of the better projected plays in
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: their range, Like Henley would still be the highest projected
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: play under nine thousand dollars for us. So if i
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: feel like I'm getting a big discount on Henley or
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: Akshay or Seawoo, Kim or mimw Lee, I can then say,
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: all right, I'm making I'm making a different type of
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: lineup than others because I'm even more balanced and I
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: do have some separators with real win equity, and Reed
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: or Rose or you know, Brooks maybe fits that type
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: of lineup. And so that is as another like style
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: of lineup that I think is going to be different
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: pivots off the truck build and is very intriguing and
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: at least worth.
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: Some extra thought, and especially again focusing on like these
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: smaller fields that we talk about quite a bit on here,
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: like to the Detox fives questions, would I be giving
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: up too much win equity by rolling up four upper
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: eight K guys in a couple sevens? And I guess
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: it's teacher own like there is a math equation here,
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: but just noting it and I'll get your takes, because
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: this is where you really jump in well, you know,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: on the math side of it. But for me, it's like,
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: even if you you got to give the win equity
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: to Scotty and Rory and those guys up top, but
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: we're not necessarily saying that works well for the entire
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: lineup build way. Less of this middle is often cut
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: at the masters because we already have this is the
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: biggest one in a while, I think at ninety one entries,
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: and obviously you can chop twenty of those guys off
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: out of the gate. And so it's like, yes, some
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: popular plays will miss it, but when you could have
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: that if you got I don't know, a Cam Young
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: Justin Rose red lineup like or let's use his real
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: example on the page. You've got Decky Hoveland, Fitzpatrick, and Brooks,
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: and you really think the winners in there. First of all,
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: you're telling the world with that lineup that you think
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: it's sucking up equity because I'm hoping that you're expecting
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: to get the winner in that builder at least damn
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: near you know, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seven. And
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: then that doesn't always score the best, but you know
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: what I'm saying, because tenth could still score an eagle
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: and have something better. But the point being you're already
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: pulling some of that, but your made cut equity is
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: already there. Your top ten or top twenty equity is
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: better in something like that. And then also it's you know,
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: you could definitely get second, third, sixth, eighth, eleventh, twelfth
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: or t eleven to eleven and be up there all
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: weekend and just bouncing back and forth with the Scotty lines.
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: But then the Scotty lineup falls apart on Sunday because
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: you know, three of his guys that were just chugging
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: along have the worst Sunday ever, and then those those
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: guys fall down the board and yours are still all contending.
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: Scotty happens to get the win. It's all theoretical, remind you,
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: but just to note, it's like Scotty happens to get
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: the win, but the Scotty lineups all fall apart at
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: the bottom now because everything that was propping them up,
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: it's not a strong foundation. Much like your home, if
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: you don't have a strong foundation, it can fall apart.
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: So can your lineup. But it could be that you're
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: stays propped up and just doesn't find the winner. And
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: in a smaller field there is actually an opportunity for
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: that to get there. I'll let you add on and
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: maybe some of the math side of things, but I
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: think that's important to remember as well.
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I also just think that, you know, outside of
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: Scotty and maybe Brys into a degree, like you're not
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: losing that much win equity by going to the upper
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: eight ks from the nine k's like it's two percentage
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: points at most from most of those guys, So it
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: really doesn't change a whole lot in terms of your
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: likelihood of getting the winner in your lineup. And one
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: of the reasons for that is, like, let's say you
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: start a lineup with Bryson and rom Let's just go
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: to the the second and third highest guys in our
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: win odds over at FtM Fantasy. If you start there, like,
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: you're gonna have a lineup where four of the six
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: probably at best, have a legitimate chance of winning the Masters.
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: If you build a lineup that's for eight K guys
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: and two upper seven K guys, you've got six guys
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: with a legitimate chance to win the Masters. So yeah,
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: you're losing some win equity in your highest guys, but
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: you're gaining some of it back with your lowest guys.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I was just trying to see, like we'll
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: have a bit of a conversation on deck eraon Sorry,
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: who am I thinking of a calmore kwa here in
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: a second, But just to note it as well. One
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: of the thing to add on to that is like
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: it's also goes back to those combinations that we always
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: talk about where it's like if if you have my
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: example I gave a minute ago, like a Cam Young
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: Rose Read lineup that skips over, So let me just
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: plug this in for two seconds. I don't have it up,
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: but I just want to use this as the example.
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: If you have a Rose Cam Young Read lineup, you
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: land at seventy six hundred. Now you could just force
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: in the same dudes that we just talked about, and
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: you'd have a bit of a different build three nine
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: k's and a couple of upper sevens in a low
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: like you could pretty much get to I think if
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: I just go see Wu Min Wu, it lands on McNeely.
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: So you see how that flips whatever that build was
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: earlier can't. So if you had what do we say,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: ram Fits Bobby Mack, I just found you the three
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: V three right there. If you had ram Fits and
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: Bobby Mack, you could also have Cam Young justin Rose
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: and Reed at way lower ownership way lower combination, like
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: different set up three nine three sevens, but you do
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: still have the same bottom of the barrel there, so
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: it's like you're using the same guys down low. My
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: point was going to be, and you could do this
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: in the rom Fits line us. But there's gonna be
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: so many more rom Fits lineups than there is Cam Young,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: Rose or Cam Young, Reid or Rose read Let alone,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: all three of them that change the build entirely. But
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: instead of saying, well, I've got seventy six hundred, I
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: better go to those plays everyone told me is gonna
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: do so well this week. Then you can look at
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: it and say, well, man, you know where else people
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: aren't landing. They're not landing in the bottom eights. I
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: actually think Lowry fits the bold here. He's kind of
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: like a European red if you will, Like he's gonna
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: be okay around the place. He's got the hands around
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: the green. He's done well at the open, like if
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be fast and firm. Maybe he's the guy.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: Well guess what. Now you land with seven point three left.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: You have everything above, you have everything below, the guys
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: at the top, including Ram and Xander and any love
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: that people are getting there. You are starting with Cam Young,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: who might get some steam, but then you got the
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: Read Rose, Lowry's up the middle, and now you can
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: land with seventy three hundred left on a seventy five
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: seventy two, like you know, really whatever seventy five seventy three,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: you can land however you want to do it. Seventy
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: five seventy one story where you can just get completely
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: different because nobody is really using anyone at seventy five
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: and nobody is really using anybody at seventy one, just
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: in an example only. But now you not only have
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: the different starting point to the build, but you also
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: have the different ending and not the popular rom fits
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: combination where I just told you how you could flip
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: that quite easily. It solves all of those problems. Lands
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: you in different parts and pockets or bubbles if you will,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: of these ranges. But who's gonna say no to like
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: this being a possibility? Cam Young, Justin Rose, Read and
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: Lowry are up the leaderboard on a Sunday and you
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: got the value pieces correct. That happens to be like Sung,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: Jay and Nora. If that happened, it's fast, firm around
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: the green guys like whatever could happen. It's definitely a possibility,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: but people just have too many takes about that those
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: guys suck or there's no way, well, there's no way
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: that you know everything either. Look at the notes from
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: last year, lots of guys missed it. So anything else
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: you want to add on just that or leveraging the
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: chalk build. I think we kind of covered quite a bit.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: But if you guys have more questions, by all means,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: throw them into the chat. Yeah.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: I think we got it right.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: So I say, no, but what do we know nothing? Yeah?
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: I said, I'm gonna change his sign instead of you know,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: nobody cares where hard I'm and say, nobody knows shit.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: Just that simple. And once I started recognizing that and
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: explaining it and just learning even more about it, like
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: the DFS game gets a whole lot easier. It's just
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: like you just got to come in clear minded and
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: play the actual game and not worry about what everybody's
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: picks and plays tell you and just try and put
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: it together. It doesn't mean you're not being you know,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: thoughtful when you're building it. Like I just said, what's
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: wrong with a rose read lowry? To me? There are
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: types of games all can fit here and make a
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: ton of sense, and we know they can, like you know,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: they're guys. One of that I mentioned, like Reid has
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: a green jacket justin Rowse Heartbreak twice. If not what
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: is it three times? Maybe like two in a playoff
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: and one without. Like, these guys are all more than capable,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: they just can't get played because some as much as
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: you think because somebody told you you have to play
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: Matt Fitzpatrick there instead of any of those guys. It's
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: like you just have to write, he's so good right now,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: you have to play it.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you said you said something that I really liked
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: this idea of like once you embrace the fact that
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: nobody knows, and I would take it even I would
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: make it even a more personal thing, which is I
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: don't know and I'm going to be wrong a lot,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: and so like, one of the things that helped me
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: the most in DFS was recognizing that a lot of
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: the time, when I have conviction on a player and
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: I feel like, oh, I really, I really want to
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: have this guy in my lineup, but he doesn't fit
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: with the with the rest of what I'm trying to do.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: It helped me so much to realize my conviction can
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: be wrong. My convictions are going to be wrong a lot. Yeah,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: I have conviction on him, I don't need to have
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: him in my lineup. And then the lineup ends up
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: doing really well and the guy that had a ton
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: of conviction on and finishes like thirtieth, and it's like,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: I would have just wasted one of the best lineups
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: of the year trying to jam in this player and
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: just recognizing how often we can and will be wrong.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: It's just it's so freeing when you're building lineups.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: It makes so much more difference when you do it
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: that way. And I love that you made it personal,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: like you said, because the idea of that is like, yeah,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: we're gonna That's why when you want to sit there
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: and rattle off ranges and players and people sort of
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: you know, come out like you don't have the tape.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: It's funny all the sports betting people doing it, people
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: come at them just as much for how annoying and
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: wrong and all that shit. But it's like if you
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: try and just say hey, I'm gonna help you play
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: the game and learn how to actually put yourself in
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: the position to have the chance to get lucky to
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: win the money, then people are like, well, you're not
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: making any hard stands. It's like we're making a hard
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: stand on how to play the game, right. It's it's
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: very you know, I always use this akin to chess,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: of like you pour out the pieces, you pour out
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: the you put the board down, or whatever it is.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: You can have a ten thousand dollars chessboard, you can
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: have the one that costs two bucks at the grocery
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: store that you buy off the shelf. Whatever it's, the
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: game is going to be played, same rules, same everything.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: Like there is chess masters that just think tons of
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: moves ahead, and that's what we're really trying to do.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: So we'll see how it shakes out for anybody asking
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: him with just like a quick ownership breakdown at the top, Alex,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know what are you seeing right now?
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: Like Rory the lowest, Scotty next then Bryson obviously of
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: those top three, I guess if you want to use
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: those three for this example.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I've got all of rom Oberg and Schopley
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: ahead of those three. So it's not just that you
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: know that's the order that the top three are in,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: but it's also that all three of those top three
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: guys have a chance to really kind of slip through
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: the cracks if you will. Of course, though no one's
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: going to be as low owned up top as Colin MARICAA.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so do you want to spend a minute on
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: him there. I'm just gonna let some folks know because
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: we will show the stone two point zero here in
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: a second. How I put some of this puzzle together myself,
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: but just gets your feedback on it. But anything you
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: want to add on the more cowifront, I mean you
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: looked at it earlier from your discord speaking of that,
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: like said, if you guys want to go over and
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: join that, you should definitely get in there. But just
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: noting what you brought up there and like it was
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: just all you can go off of is what other
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: people are saying. But then put your spin on again
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: can be wrong, Like we talked about beware of the
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: injured golfer. But I think what's interesting is a lot
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: of people are comparing this injury and everything that's going
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: on with his swing and you know, him saying how
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: far you can hit it, how well you know, how
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: he has to nurse it and everything. They're comparing that
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: to when he just said his irons weren't really clicking
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: on the turf overseas, when he was completely healthy and
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: good to go at the Open. Just a comment was
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: made about how his irons are quite working great. This
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: is totally different in my opinion, but I'll let you
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: chime in. Yeah, I'll talk a little bit just about
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: like the golf side of the health as someone who
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: I tore my quadratus lamborum, which is the muscle like
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: on the on the that connects almost like the hip
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: to the low back in Q school one year and
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: immediately like it was the first swing of the tournament
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: and three holes later I had to pull out.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: It was just no chance I was gonna finish. One
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: of the interesting things is, yes, the back hurts a
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: lot when you're swinging sometimes, but what's even potentially more
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: impactful is when you have to get lower into like
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: a putting stance or a short game stance, you get
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: automatic discomfort. And so long after I was back to
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: taking full swings, I still felt like I couldn't practice
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: putting or chipping because I just couldn't stay in that
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: posture long enough. I could. I could do it for
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: like two minutes at a time. Rory talked about the
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: same thing at the Players Right. He was coming off
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: of his back injury, and he said the swing was fine,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: his ball speed was where his ball speed usually is,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: but he talked about how it was uncomfortable to put
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: in chip. Now, his chipping was good that week, his
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: putting wasn't. Maybe the putting was bad just because the
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: putting was bad, and that happens. Maybe the putting was
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: bad because he couldn't get into his usual posture and
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: just something was a little bit off. Who knows. But
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: the point here is if I were outside at the mesters,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be looking at what he's doing on the range.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: I don't want to see how comfortable does he looked
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: when he's practicing his putting and practice saying a short game,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: because those aspects of the game obviously matter a ton
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: of Augusta. I think think we'll see the ball speed
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: on the range kind of creep up a little bit
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: as we get closer to the to the actual start
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: of the tournament, to where his ball speed usually is.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: Maybe we'll see that today, maybe we won't. But his
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: ball speed was down about three miles per hour, which
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: could be, Hey, he's trying to push it and the
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: back just won't let him get to where he usually is.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: It could also be we're a few days out. I
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: don't need to push it on the range. Let me
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: just get a few swings so I feel like my
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: timing's in order, and then I'll start to push the
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: speed as we get closer, or even maybe just the
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: day of, or maybe he's just going to play the
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: whole week a few miles per hour lower, even if
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have discomfort, maybe he doesn't quite trust, you know,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: the full full speed swing yet. So there are aspects
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: of it that I think are concerning. There are things
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: that I'd like to be able to know, and maybe
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: he'll talk about in either O press or today, or
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: maybe someone will ask him, or we'll we'll you know,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: get a report of how he looks on the punting
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: green or anything like that. That's the kind of thing
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: I'm going to look for. But ultimately, I think we're
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: going to go in a little bit blind in the
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: sense that we just can't possibly know how he's feeling,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: and we just have to make a decision based on that.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was pulling all the pressers, like I said,
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: I teased that the you know, I made fun of
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: all those thread threaders, and I was like, I gotta
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: do something different. I was zig win they zag alex
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: so when everyone's just telling you the same shit. It's
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: like I wanted to find something that was different. And
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: you know, he had talked about he said he'd been
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: hitting balls for the past week. I ended up pulling
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: out of you know, having to, uh, what do you say,
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: hit balls and continue to play. But there's a comfort
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: level and he says, this isn't a place where you
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: want to be uncomfortable. But sometimes you got to find
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: other ways to get around the golf course. So I'm
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: kind of, you know, making a different game plan that
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: I've come up with in the past. He did talk
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit in there about breaking down like his
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: short game feeling better, but he's like he was saying,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: the truth on the other side is like it's with
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: the driver and the swing, and how also it's even
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: with the mind. He was saying, It's like, now it's
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: a because I'm sure like as you said it, and
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: it's you know, you talked about some quadrula. I'm talking
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: about Medulla ambanngada, like your brain up top. It's like
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: sometimes it's there as well, because now you're thinking about
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: it in the back swing and if you're as we
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: you know, speaking of you know, old times and majors
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: and whatnot. What was like a Meto Perrerah can tell
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: you sometimes there's just a quick little zap in the
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: brain at the worst possible time that makes things go
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: the wrong way. And if that happens, that can be
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: a problem. So I think it's at least somewhat interesting.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: But as the point was made in the chat by
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: somebody here, this guy is gonna be like no ownership
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: on both sides too. We don't talk a lot about
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: FanDuel on here, but says more Cows ten point seven
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: has young fits directly above min move Bobby Mack below. Yeah,
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: he can't get there with ownership, and I don't even
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: know if he can get the five. What's really crazy
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: is the last time he played at the Players he
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: was almost fifty percent owned, one of the highest we've
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: seen in quite some time. Actually, in that spot, David
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: Faber is yelling at me for this. I will say
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: I didn't pull anything from this, but Carlos Ortez did
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: talk about sort of his family being in town. You know,
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: I looked at some of his stuff. Wasn't even worth
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: posting though, But like just said, you know, mostly about
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: his brother because of the the amateur showing and that
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: he that he had had in the past and said
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: good memories here and all that, but he says, being
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: here as a tree, you know, lots of cool stuff,
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: really doesn't have a lot of great swing thoughts or
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: what he's feeling coming in. So I think if you
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: have conviction on Ortiz, he's worth playing because he's gonna
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: get you into different roster constructions. You're not gonna be
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: happy with yourself if you don't go there. But just remember,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: once you go to Carlos Ortiz, you can kind of
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: do whatever you want because nobody's really landing there in
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: the first place.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: So all right, Alex, I saw someone say like Ortiz
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: is playing, well, he's got two top tens this year,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: same constance to we talked about earlier with Rum, Like
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: those top tens were like one point four and one
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: point eight strokes gained per round. Corey Connors, for example,
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: gained two point six per round at the Players thirteenth.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: He gained one point seven at the Valspar fourteenth. Those
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: top tens from Carlos Ortiz, they're not they're nothing. So, uh,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: maybe he pops, but he's not gonna pop because he's
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: in great form. He's not.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's like all these different golfers that
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: you can look at as one awesome stuff. I'm gonna
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: use them mostly in the thought process around construction, right,
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: Like you know, somebody talked about it earlier. I saw
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: it in discord. I think it was is like, if
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: I can choose between McNeely and Spawn, I'm actually way
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: more likely to choose Spawn. The guy won last week,
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: Like I don't care what about Remember last year was
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: like Scottish Open got her up wins, Like, no way
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: he could do anything at the Major. The next week,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: It's like or he could, and then he goes and
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: does just find it's Spawn could find something, could not.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: Maybe he did, maybe he didn't, but he at least
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: found enough to win the tournament last week. So if
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: he can bring any of that across again, it could
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: be the guy that just makes it work. He could
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: be your top ten guy that fits in there and
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: goes through all that. And yeah up North, that's what
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: Alex was talking about with a little bit less and
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: all the stuff on his numbers there, So again, could
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: just be holding it back, could be saving it saying
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: at least want to get through a day and then
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: see how it feels and if I do okay on
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: everything else, treatments or things like that, and try and
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: get through it that way. If you're in contention, things
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: change in your mind. When you're in contention and things
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: are going your way, versus when they don't. Look at
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: the football players that like such a touchdown, it's like
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: then they're debating the catch. They're like, they weren't injured.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: But now that this or a basketball player that gets
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: pulled on, it's like, well that if it went in,
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: I was good, but now that it didn't, let me
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: fall on the floor and say something's completely wrong. Same
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: in soccer ETCA. So we'll see what ends up happening.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: But all we know going in is completely low owned
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: and untouched in that upper range at ninety five hundred.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: And the other point there is like when he's on
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: the range, he's got no adrenaline by the time where
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: by the time it's you know, time to actually te
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: off and play the golf tourm and he's gonna have
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: adrenaline coursing through his body that helps with pain.
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: All right, let's do quick, do you do you have
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: anything on the betting breakdown this week. You know, we'll
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: get to our lane at the end. I'm gonna show
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: the stone two point zh here in a second. But
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: do you want to talk about anything with the betting
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: markets this week that you saw?
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll give my favorite pick of the week. It's
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: actually my favorite pick of the year. It's Russell Henley outright,
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: one of the one of the like big findings that
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: I've been looking at this year and trying to get
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: a better understanding of what predicts future wins. Is it
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: past win rate, is it past top ten rate, top
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: twenty rate, whatever, And there's a massive signal in top
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: ten rate, in top twenty rate translating into wins. And
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: I think this makes a ton of sense. It's just like,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: in order to win, you have to give yourself opportunities,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: and give yourself an opportunity, you have to be around
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: the lead, which a top ten finish is. And it's
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: similar to like who do you think is gonna make
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: more birdie putts? The guy who's a really good putter
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: but only has three or four chances around, or the
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: guy who's an average putter but he gives himself eight
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: to ten chances around. The guy with more chances. Even
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: if he's a worse putter, he's gonna get it done. Similarly,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: someone who gets into contention a lot is going to
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: win more often than the guys who are rarely in contention,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: even if those guys are rare, who are rarely in
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: contention have a really good ability to close it once
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: they're there. And so Henley's not like it's not like
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: he's been in contention and finishing second place or losing
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: leads that he could have closed out. But he's around there.
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: He's playing really quality golf. And the stat that I
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: keep pointing to is in his last fi fifteen events,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: he has thirteen top twenty finishes and those are the
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: thirteen cuts that he's made, So literally every time in
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: his last fifteen events that he's made the cut, he
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: has finished in the top twenty. That's the kind of
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: spike that I really like. And I just think he's
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: a really good fit for the course, So I really
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: like him. And then the other part I'll talk about
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: for the betting side of things is this has historically
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: been one of my absolute best weeks of the year
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: from a props and picked the perspective, especially pick them
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: over on underdog or prize picks, like a lot of
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: the stuff that I give out on underdog. If you're
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: not on an underdog for some reason and you just
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: like price fix more, a lot of the time you
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: can find the exact same stuff over our prize pick.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: So it's a great week for that stuff. And it's
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: great for a couple reasons. Number one, we have great
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: data from the past on Augusta, and Augusta typically plays
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: pretty similar year to year, or at least like you
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: can find historical examples of similar conditions, so you have
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: a better idea of what scoring is going to look
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: like coming into the week than we do in any
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: other major championship. But even in a lot of weeks
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: on tour where you know they set up the course
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: differently this year they grew out the rough or they
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: didn't like Augusta's, the conditions are pretty much the same
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: every single year except for weather, and you know the
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: softness of the course, which also is related to weather,
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: so you get that advantage. And then the other thing
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: is because it's the Masters, they just offer so many
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: more types of props that we can choose from, and
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: the more they offer, the more likely they are to
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: make a mistake in the way they're pricing stuff that
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: we can go and take advantage of. So definitely get
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: in on the discord this week to get all of
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: those plays. It's been a really fun way to make
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: Like all of the Masters in the last five years
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: have been really really profitable for me, even when my
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: DraftKings lineups have stunk. So it's a it's a really
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: nice just kind of side quest if you will, to
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: the Masters. That ends up being one of the key
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: parts for the week.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: We love our side quests, and I also love the
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: the spike. I like segment coming up from Alex Milikel.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: That's gonna be a good one. I like that call out.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: I think we said it yesterday though, But like even
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: Bridgeman was another example down there that fit that mold. Again,
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: not about the play, just the idea of like it's
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: crazy look at the you know, the form coming in
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: and then at the events that he's doing it, at
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: the strength of fields, at how hard those courses were
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: and at times tough they were, so things like that
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: that you're looking for can mean a lot more. But
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: again a lot of people will tie it to different things,
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: like a debutant or different trends and factors and all
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: that stuff. There's there's always going to be trends at
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: every tournament, and there's always a plus and of minus.
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: That's why talk about the plays. Like someone said, you know,
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: like top ten matters for others, but not or Tees.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know really what's gonna matter until we do.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: But it's like, if it does, you can lean on that.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: If he ends up having a great week, Yeah we
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: saw the eighth and the six on live coming in
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: or whatever, it's like, if he doesn't, it's like, well
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: then we don't know what he's been up to or
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: whatever else it might be. So it's like it maybe
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: it wasn't because of that. So it's it's really tough
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: to pinpoint it that way. But all I know is
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: if you have conviction on somebody and you want to
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: roll them, then think about what that means to the
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: rest of your lineup. And if it's someone this week
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: where it's like or Tees to you, that's phenomenal because
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: you can almost do whatever you want now from there
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: and get away with it, especially in the high stakes,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: smaller field stuff. So keep that in mind as well.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: Anything on the one and done conversation. We can nail
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: that out and then then I'll load this soft pare
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: and we'll get out of here before the half hour mark.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think it makes sense to UH to
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: try and just play live guys for major championships. I
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: will say like there's a difference this year to the
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: last few years, where it felt like in the last
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: few years it was very clear to say, all right,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: these are the four live guys I'm gonna play. I'm
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: gonna play four of these five or six live guys
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: in the major championships. This year's kind of like there
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: are only three that I want to actually play in
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: one and Done? So are there only two that I
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: really want to play in One and Done? Bryson and Rom?
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: And I do kind of feel like they're going to
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: be more popular this week than I'd like. Maybe Bryson
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: comes in under own in one and Done since he's
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: being overlooked so much on DraftKings, but I kind of
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: think like they'll there's a really good chance that like
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: Rom is far and away the highest owned one and
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: Done guy, and then Bryson's probably top five as well,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: and maybe even top two or top three. So if
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: I could find a different guy, I think i'd like
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: to maybe you go to Patrick Reid, not because he's
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: a live guy, but because he still fits the category
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: like the lift guys of guys who are only we're
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: only gonna see four times this year that you can
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: actually play in events that count for one and done,
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: and so there's at least three guys, and he's obviously
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: a great fit for the course, but I think he'll
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: be one of the more popular options because of that.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: So I don't have a strong yet for one and Done,
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: and I was kind of hoping that.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: You did that we could talk through Well, the only
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: thing I was gonna say is like, I know it's
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: been brought up making fun of it, and then I
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: even had the blunder and said it as well, like
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: I clearly knew because I was bringing up with others,
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: but like the read factor of how he didn't take
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: the live deal. He ended up switching back having that
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: run on the Deep World Tour obviously has good history
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: here all of that. I think he'll get some for sure,
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: but it also is like when will we see him
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: again and how is it all gonna shake out or
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: where will somebody else want to use him. I think
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: this is the better spot. And if Rom and Bryce
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: and then those guys are really going to take up
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: some and then you've got the cur for guys that
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: people that are that are gonna wanna use Rory, You're
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: Scotty or whatever else they're gonna wanna use, not just
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: because a form, because a history or whatever it might be.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: I think there is gonna be that group of like
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: ten to fifteen percent on guys that you could still
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: pick one from that if you think they're gonna have
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: the result here. But I don't know if you have
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: anybody else, like Speed or anything else you had had
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: something like that on that you want to use for ours.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: But I'm fine with sort of going with any of
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: those guys. I think I would lean Bryson more than Rom,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: but but I don't really hedge stuff either. I've talked
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: about this a ton in the past, like, if you're
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: gonna use I know what people are gonna do. Well,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: I just can't get away from the Rom in DFS thing.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna use Bryson in one and done. It's
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: like and yeah, but you might not get any reward
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: in one and done. Besides, like, yeah, you get some
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: money in your bank, but you still have the whole
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: season to play out. You can get a huge edge
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: in dfs. So if you actually feel that that's true
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: this week, and you could see like Rom come in
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: one third one or Bryson them in like one third
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: one fourth in some of these tournaments of Rom, I
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: would prefer to just use it in both places or
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: just get it in there, because I think that's actually
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: a really good way to go.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: What's your thoughts on that, Uh, let me ask you
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: about two other guys, and if you don't like these guys,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: then I'm good just kind of taking that route. Cam
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: Smith Terrell Hatton. Both of these guys are very good
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: fits for the course. Neither are in great form. I
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: think the degree to which Hatton is out of form
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: I think is being exaggerated a little bit. Like his
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: play's been fine and he typically shows up for big events.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: So I think my top choice would be Hatton. But
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: then there's also the argument of like, I definitely don't
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: want camp Smith at the US Open. I definitely don't
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: want camp Smith at the PGA Championship. I probably don't
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: want camp Smith at the Open his game does fit
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: augusta well. So if he's going to show up to
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: any of these major championships and contend, this is probably
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: the one. So i'd be open to him as well.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually like him more than Hatton if I
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: was choosing, and I would do that with you, like again,
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: just using a totally different spot. And I think also
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: if people are looking at segments and stuff, there is
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: different runs where you could use the bigger guys at
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: even if you wanted to set it up differently. So
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: I'm actually okay with using Cam Smith. I think it's
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: what you said obviously, all different facets. I know people
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: gave him shit that year it was in November or whatever,
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: and like, well, yeah, of course he showed up with
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: that one. But I mean he's shown up at a
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: lot of them. This is the course that he can
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: kind of know where to put it off the tee
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: find his way around at that. Again, it's a it's
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: a riskier play, but it's also in one and done,
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: he's not going to get ownership and he is still
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: a live guy in a you know, in a good spot.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: So I would definitely be open to that if you're
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: good with it.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that'll be that'll be our guy, all right.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: I like it. Good, good separation there, all right, I
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: teased it enough. I'm gonna get to this quick, Alex,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: and then well we'll round out with our lanes. But
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: just I'm not gonna spend a lot of time. And
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: it's a preview for for folks over Atchip Nation. If
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: you guys want to join, I already told you about it.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: You can even use code Stone two and get yourself
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: set up for a discount this week. If you want
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: to get fifty percent off your first payment, use the
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: code Stone two on PGA, PGA with Sabersim or the
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: all Access Core plan, so it's like thirty, forty or
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: fifty dollars depending on what access you want. But just
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: remember so typically you will see the Stone, which the
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: initial version is up for the masters already you will
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: see later today hopefully tonight. My fingers are crossed and
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: I haven't been more excited in a while for this
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: because you guys know how I build. But you will
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: see the Stone two point zero fall in between here
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: until we probably just go to it long term. But
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: I just want to show this off because I know
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: people hate change. Alex. So we have it set up
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: from last week and I'll give the preface here. I
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: love this tool. It's got all the information we need
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: in one place. The way I build my lineups is
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: I have this on my right screen over here. Let
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: me use my hand to come back and for so
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: here's my right screen, here's my left screen. I'll have
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: Sabersim up on that. Our projections, our ownership, everything that
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: I use is already loaded in there. You can just
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: build and get good lineups. I'm not saying you need
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: to use this, but I know most people like to
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: dig in and go through the stone, and I do
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: personally like to come up with my own player pool.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: First see where it lands me, and then let Sabersim
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: take over. So imagine we're just looking at my right
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: side screen. You've got all your normal downloads that you
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: can do as usual, but we've made it entirely sortable. Now.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: We've added favorites abilities, so you can favorite the guys
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: that you want. And I'll show more on this in
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: a second, so that you guys can see it. You
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: can sort it by whatever you want. If you go
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: by the wave, it already sorts it by the price tag,
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: so AMPM for different for weather weeks, if you want
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: to sort of by win equity, top twenty made cut,
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: sort by our course fit rankings, the optimal rate when
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: it comes out, all of that. But the bigger thing
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: here is in the menu. So I'll scroll it down
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: a little bit. This scrolls with it now, so this
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: stays locked at the top. It is definitely better used
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: on desktop. But we've essentially made it entirely interactive for
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: you guys. And what I mean by that now is
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: so you can say, Okay, I've looked at the stone,
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: I want to go with these five guys, and I'm
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: not going to spend a ton of time on this today.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna actually just get a little bit of a
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: you know, dispersed number here and then favorite golfers only. Boom.
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: Now my right hand screen has everything I want on it.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: It's clear as day. I can see it perfectly, so
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: that you guys can see that right there. You can
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: go down and you can have it so that you
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: just hit the star, hit it off again, turn off
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: favorites only get them all back, sort up my price. Oh,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: I want to see just the pivots done. I want
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: to see just the sleepers done, leverage done, whatever you
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: want to look at. Oh, we're doing a show listen.
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: Other sites can use this. They want to talk about
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: the ranges. I just want to talk about the eight
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: K range boom EIGHTK to eighty nine hundred when they're
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: going through the range and comparing optimal rates and side
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: by sides and whatever it is you want to see
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: for both that and FanDuel price value. If you want
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: to see what our GPP options are or our cash options,
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: or who are the high upside options, you can do that.
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: You want to see donkey chock it still exists, right,
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: I think I've got too many filters on now for
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: this one. Let me just turn this off for a second.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: But you want to see just donkey chock boom. It's
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: all there, sorted by donkey chock. So really, we haven't
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: removed anything that you're used to seeing. We didn't want
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: to change what everybody knows and loves. But now you
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: can set it up to see that. You want to
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: see the wave AMPM only done and automatically sorted by
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: price for you. Now you could say within my wave,
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: I want to see what the rates are that I'm
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: looking at or who do I like in ranges and
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: favorite them and go throughout so little things like that
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: you can search for any golfer. Not going to spend
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: a ton of time on it, but definitely want to
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: show this off so you guys can see that the
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: interactive version is coming. This is something that we get
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of feedback on during our end of year survey,
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: people saying, hey, I'd love to be able to actually
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: do something with the stone on my screen as opposed
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: to have to download the XLSX file, go in and
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: edit it myself and change things up and all around.
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: So just so you guys know, that's gonna be the
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: new Stone two point zero. If you have any further questions,
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: hit me up in discord, Alex. I'll bring it back
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: to the main our lane for the week. Back to
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: the main, get to our lane. What did you decide
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: on for your lane? I honestly, with all that's said here,
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: with the hour and a half mark coming, I still
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: don't know if I have mine yet.
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: I've got two, so I'll do I'll do the first
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: one and then come back to the second one. And
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: the reason I'm doing two number one it's the Masters,
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: So it can be a little bit special with it,
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: but it's because I think this first one's a really
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: really strong strategy in certain contests. I don't know if
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: I am going to be in those contests, so I
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: don't know that I will want to be using these.
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: But if you need a higher risk play, you need
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: a really straightforward wave separation. I think playing Colin Moricawa
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: makes a lot of sense this week. And so the
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: way that I'm gonna do this leverage lane is I'm
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: going to just kind of talk about why it makes sense,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: the type of lineup in which it makes sense, the
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: type of contest in which it makes sense, and then
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: lay it all out there in such a way that
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: you can decide for yourself if it works for you
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: and it's the kind of risk that you want to take.
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: This is obviously not going to be for everybody this week.
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: Some in fact, like some people will say, you know what,
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: I love the Masters. I want to give myself as
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: much of a chance to just like enjoy the sweat
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: of the DFS contest throughout the weekend, and if Morikawa
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: starts out really bad in the first five holes, there's
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: a good chance he withdraws and like, that's just not
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: for me. I want I want to feel like I
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: have a chance at least all the way through Friday.
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: So maybe it's not for you for that reason. But
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: here's here's the argument for it. The first is when
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: we think about the way in which Morikawa's potential injury
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: and the uncertainty around an injury kind of manifests itself
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: in his overall range of outcomes, it hurts his floor
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: a lot more than it hurts his ceiling outcomes. If
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: he's healthy, he's still going to get plenty of these
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: ceiling outcomes. And like when I put in the injury
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: risk into his actual projections in the simulation, for example,
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: he went from about five percent to three and a
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: half percent in win odds. That took him from the
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: third most likely to win to about the seventh or
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: eighth most likely to win. That's not a big change.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: It did, however, take him from like the third most
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: likely to make the cut to about the thirtieth most
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: likely to make the cut. So that's a huge, huge change.
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: And that's the way it manifests itself. It changes his floor.
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: It makes his floor a lot worse, makes it a
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: lot more likely that he has a floor outcome, but
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: it doesn't change how it doesn't dramatically change how often
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: he's like really taking you to the promised land. And
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: if you're in a contest like the MILLI, for example,
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: when so much money is up at the top and
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: you have to beat fourteen hundred people or some of
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: you we are gonna be in contest, we have to
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: beat ten thousand or fifty thousand people, the chance of
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: having a guy whose win odds are almost as high
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: as his ownership, maybe even higher, is insane. We never
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: ever ever get that opportunity in dfs, especially not from
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: somebody in the nine k range. So the win equity
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: to ownership ratio is as good as we ever ever
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: ever see inpgdfs. And for that reason, I think he's
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: really interesting. And he's especially interesting if you're building a
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: lineup that says, you know what, I need differentiation up top.
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: I need potential separation up top because I'm eating a
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: lot of chalk down lower, and so like, if you
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: love that range of Henley Seawoo min Wu and you
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: want to build a lineup that has so many of
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: these guys who are very clearly in their own tier
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: in their price range in terms of how well they
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: project and how high probability of places that they are.
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: Go for it and you have the answer to make
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: those lineups work. Where most weeks that type of build
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: it's too chalky, it's not gonna work. But especially like
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: in small fields, this week, you can eat a ton
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: of chalk and then up top go to Colin Morikawa
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: as the separator. So that's leverage lane number one. I
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: don't know that I'll be using it, and that's why
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna have a second leverage lane because I really
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: like to make my leverage line something that I'm very
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: confident i'm gonna end up playing. And I don't know
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: that I'll play Colin, but I think it's a really
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: really sharp play this week, given how low owned he's
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: going to be and the idea that his ceiling is
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: not as affected by this potential injury as a floor is.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna get mine, just real simple. It's gonna
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: be based on the thirty three to thirty three ticket
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: that I have. I get another one today, great and
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: go from there, but I'm assuming I'm only gonna have
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: the one and going from that front almost like when
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: you walk into the casino and just bring cash, no cards,
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: And you're think, if I lose the money, I lose.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: If I win it, I win it. But but I
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna fade Fitzpatrick. I'm gonna I'm gonna fade Fitzpatrick
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: in that lineup. I know there's tons of different builds
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: you can put him into and make him work. It's
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: it's not just the ownership to me, it's when I'm
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: looking at that range, and again, I'm not set on
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: my final build yet, but I think either my build
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: won't land there, or if my build does, I could
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: see myself on plenty of other options, whether it's Headeki,
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: Bobby Mack, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry like I
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, Like, I just see myself landing in a
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: totally different zone. So I'll make the easy one because
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: I gotta think, I don't know, what what do you
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: have right now? High stakes ownership on Fitzpatrick for say
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: the thirty three thirty three main.
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: Event, it's high thirty four point seven percent and it
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: might even go up.
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so that that one's easy for me. Again, I
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: just don't It's not just that it's it's again, there's
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: many other factors, but I'm definitely gonna use that as
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: my lane here, just to pick something I absolutely know
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: and can give you coverage on. Again, I know a
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: lot of people have FOMO. They say it's the own misprice.
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: It's not who you play, it's how I play. I
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: preach all those things. I'm saying that not really builds
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: that I'm landing on that would land there on top
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: of the fact that the you know, I could separate
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: from almost forty percent of the field in one move
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: just like that. So to me, I think there's so
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: much firepower around him that I'm very comfortable making that
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: stand here. And so for me, that's gonna be my
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: leverage lane for the week. You said you might have
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: a second one. Did you think of something else or you.
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've had the second one, and it actually it
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: flows well with the Maricawa one, and it's it's somewhat
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: similar to the one you just gave with Fitzpatrick too.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 2: The second leverage lane is starting my lineup below Xander Schaffley,
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: and so this can be interpreted as you know, a
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: fade rom and Showfley leverage lane. But I'm making even
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: more specific in like the way in which I want
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: to fade it. And the reason for this is like
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: I toyed a lot with the idea of going up
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: to Rory or even Bryson a little bit, but he
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: doesn't apply to this logic quite as much because he's
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: so close in price to those guys. But like Scotty Rory,
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: if you're going there, you need to be right about
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: two things. Number one, you need to be right that
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: they outproduced the chalk that's below them, like Rom over
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: Shaffley that group. But then you also have to be
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: right about that second guy that you're playing. So like
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: if you if you go to Rory, for example, maybe
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: that takes you from Shawfley down another sixteen hundred to
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: an eight K guy. So now maybe it's you know,
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: Chris got her up instead of Shoffley. So in addition
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: to being right about Rory over Rom, you also have
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: to then be right about gott her up over Shawfley.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: And so it's just it's it's a little bit of
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: a lower probability pivot. Then I think that you will
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: find if you go down and build a more balanced lineup.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: And so this more balanced lineup, you know, A part
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: of it is that there are a lot of really
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: good GPP scores in the low eight case. We've talked
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: about this a bunch recently, Like this eight K range
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: just continuously seems to be overlooked a little bit, and
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: so Lowry Hatton Straka can't lay Henley. Henley's popular, but
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: he's still a positive GPP score because of how well
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: he projects for us. But then even like Connor's at
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: seventy seven, So we really like hyper balanced lineups are
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: just full of good GPP scores. There's a mix of
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: guys who project well and are good GPP scores because
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: they're they're a great places to spite their ownership. And
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: then there are other guys like Victor Hovlin who has
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: a great GPP score justin Rose is a great GPP score.
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: They don't project that well compared to some other guys
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: around them, but they're that much under owned that they're
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: good plays. And so I really like the idea of
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: like the hyper balanced lineup this week, and that's going
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: to be my second leverage lane.
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that one quite a bit. That's kind
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: of more what I'm looking at again, in different ways
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: that you can get there, but it also allows you
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: to incorporate I'll say this too. Like again, it's just
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: I'm just putting a bunch of thoughts out there now,
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: like you put bonus stuff out at the end. But
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: like I definitely think the upper seven K range is
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: if as long as I'm different elsewhere, I'm actually more
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: okay with guys like Henley and Si Wu and men
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: like I get why they are getting ownership. It's just
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: I don't want the same thing of the wrong fits
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: stuff up top and necessarily all the other stuff. I
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: think this one's very close. I'll hit you with a
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: couple of rapid fires. But fitz and Rahm got to
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: be similar and a lot together in these megas and
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: things like that as well, like we talked about right,
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: got to be both up there.
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Rom's at thirty eight percent in high
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: sake Xander thirty four point two, Fitzpatrick thirty four point seven.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: And then as I talked about earlier, like the chance
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: that you get Henley Seewoo or Minwoo to get to
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: that level is just a little bit lower because they're
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: competing with each other. There's no cannibalization on Fitzpatrick's ownership
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: for example, maybe McIntyre who we have at twenty six
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: point three, but Henley Seawou both under thirty percent, Minwu
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: just over thirty percent. That might change tonight, who knows,
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: But I don't think we'll see any of those guys
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: get to forty. And we very well could see Romsander
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: or Fitzpatrick get to forty and it wouldn't shock me
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 2: at all.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and it was throughout the day on the chat
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: here on the show. Appreciate everybodys sticking around to the end.
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: It's a longer one with the Masters. We always have
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: some fun with this one. But just noting it, Minwu
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: or Seawou or are you good with both depending on
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: roster construction? Like, what is your thoughts on those two
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: particular options there at that very popular landing spot and
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: price tag obviously feels very low, Like it feels very
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: affordable for what the talent levels are and what they've
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: been able to do leading in, But what's your thoughts
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: on those two?
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: So earlier I teased like the strategy note that I
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: did at the end of last year's Masters, and how
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna talk a lot about that in my discord
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: this week. So I'll give like a piece of that
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: here because I think it's a perfect way to answer.
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: One of the things that I believe is that major
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: championships and the Masters especially brings out who a player
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: is more than who he has been. And I think
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: with min Wu there's a very big risk that who
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: he is is still someone who really struggles with the
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: Irons and that he's just been in a hot streak
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: with the Irons. But once you get in the pressure,
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: once he gets into the situation, especially if he finds
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: himself you know in contention on the stretch that that
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 2: weakness with the Irons is going to really get exposed
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: here by Augusta National. And so I definitely have higher
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: confidence in Seawu Kim. And because there's no ownership difference
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: between them, or even min Wu might be higher owned,
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: I definitely prefer Seawoo of the two.
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: All Right, I like that, man. I mean, that's you know,
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: definitely another thing that people don't spend enough time looking at.
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: And also, like some late ads, I would say this
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: to your boy, Nico got added to the field late
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: for like two hundred bucks less than min Wu, and
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that two hundred bucks gets people,
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: but just say or you could just leave it on
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: the table. But sometimes there's something like that as well,
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: where I think like if they both had just been
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: priced there in the beginning, you could have seen where
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: it was like a lot more popular. But because the
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: min Wu, you know, sort of the plate was already set,
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: people are more than happy just to have him in
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: the mix and keep rolling him out there.
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, Nicola is definitely not like the
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: best fit for this golf course, but his game has
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: been so good that I'm not gonna be surprised if
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 2: he does well again. He's just been an awesome player
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: this year.
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I would just say like that. That's the other
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: thing I bring in though, Like min Wu, a lot
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: of what's talked about on him, and you just brought
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: a lot of it up. Don't rehash too much, but
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: like the third, the second, the twelfth, the second, like
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: all mixed in. But then you come here and it's
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: like last three results forty nine, twenty second miscut, Nico miscut,
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: same as him, but sixteenth. But then you still a second,
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: a twenty fourth and a sixth in the mix, and
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: then a third and a fourth and another twenty second,
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: like what what's really the difference? I guess, and then
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: you could see like an eighteen percent versus a thirty
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: percent on the ownership, and it's like if that gets you,
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: it wouldn't be that surprising regardless of it. So I
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: don't know. I think it's all like just something to
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: keep in mind when you're out there building and different
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: tons of different ways you can go. But definitely looking
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: at construction as a whole when we're getting after it
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: all right, Alex's final plugsots, anything else you want to
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: do before we get out of here, my friend, awesome
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: show going through it with you.
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, as I as I talked about last week as well,
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: the high sakes ownership is incredibly impactful to our contest
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 2: sims product over at FT and Fantasy. Getting ownership right
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: is such an important step for contest sims because you
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: have to be able to predict what field lineups are
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: going to look like, the lineups that you're going to
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 2: be competing against. If you can't do that well, the
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: data that you're getting, like the expected ROI the expected
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: win rate of certain lineups is meaningless. You have to
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: do that step well, and certainly I think we do
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: it extremely well over at FTN. So check out those
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: contest hims you promo code click for ten percent off
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: and then big reminder, the big fifty percent off for
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 2: my discord. Again. You find all of that through my
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 2: Twitter at alex Plica one promo code Master's fifty for
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: that fifty percent off my discord.
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, awesome, man. We really appreciate you doing this here,
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: going through it all as usual with you. It's a
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: lot of fun. I love this show. Hopefully everybody enjoyed it.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: If you guys want to leave a comment, if you're
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: watching it live, it'll end shortly and you can just
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 1: put it right below. But anything you want us to
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: talk about next week on the upcoming show when it
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: gets to like the evergreen stuff and that we forget
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: oftentimes to get to it. But like, people bring up
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: so many good things throughout the show, we try and
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: hit on as much as we can, so hopefully you
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 1: appreciate it. We'll do as much as we can moving forward.
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: Smash that like, make sure to subscribe to the channel
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: if you want to get the fifty percent off. Over
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: at ship a Nation, get access to the Stone two
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: point zero as of this evening. You can do so
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: with code Stone two. That's gonna do it for this
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 1: one guys, for Alex, for myself, to Tech and Tambo,
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: good luck in your contest this week. Enjoy the Masters
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: and led Ship it
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: Les