Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 9/22/26: Trump Approval Craters, AI Oligarchs Fight Regulation, Trump Bends Knee To Xi

Transcript

9/22/26: Trump Approval Craters, AI Oligarchs Fight Regulation, Trump Bends Knee To Xi · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here, and we
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: here at Breaking Points are already thinking of ways we
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: can up our game for this critical election.
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• 0:20
  Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today.
• 0:28
  Speaker 4: What up, Crystal?
• 0:28
  Speaker 5: Indeed we do.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: We're going to do a deep dive into the midterms.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Got a bunch of new polls out this morning that
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: are quite interesting. And Trump has just officially hit 29%
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: in his first approval rating.
• 0:39
  Speaker 5: To drop under 30%.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: So that seems like a landmark we should pay attention to.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Democratic candidates are apparently terrified of speaking out against AI
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: because they are fearful of millions of dollars being spent
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: against them in their campaigns. We're gonna talk to a
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: candidate who faced millions of dollars in AI spending about
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: what the dynamics look like on the ground. We're anticipating
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: also today a big meeting later this week with Trump
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: and Xi Jinping of China. Already, we're seeing some actually
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: encouraging developments in terms of AI coordination. We'll break that
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: down for you and how significant it is. Trump has
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: kicked a bunch of news outlets out of the White House.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Now others are boycotting, participating in the press pool in solidarity,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: leading to some interesting, hilarious moments. DraftKings was caught using
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: AI to target gambling addicts. We also have some new,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: really deeply disturbing video of one of those gambling addicts,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: how much they're putting down every single week on sports betting.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: And OpenAI announces they've solved over 100 outstanding math problems.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Kevin Roos, formerly of The New York Times, now launching
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: his own podcast, is going to join us to break
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: down the latest developments there. He's also going to take
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: a look at some of these impending IPOs. and what
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: we may learn about the financial situation of some of
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: these companies.
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: Kevin's great.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: He spent the last year also writing a book called
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: The AGI Chronicles, which is going to come out in
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: a little bit. So we're going to pick his brain
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: on what exactly he's learned and what he can see.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: He lives in San Francisco. He talks to a lot
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: of these people. every single day. Thank you to everybody
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: who's subscribing to the show, breakingpoints.com. We have our free
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• 2:13
  Speaker 2: which many of you listened, thank you to this pitch,
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: is that they all just count for Ryan's total. So
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: just don't even worry about me. Pretend it's not even
• 2:19
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  Speaker 1: You know what we need to do? We need to
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: get just like a video of Ryan that we can
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: just play.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: It's not bad. I actually thought about that.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: But knowing his sleep schedule, I was like, you know,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: asking him in the morning is pointless. So I was like, well,
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: forget about it.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: All right. So as we said, with all of that,
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: let's get to the midterms.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: So let's start with some video of real voters on
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: the ground in Detroit, Michigan. This is courtesy of a
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal reporter.
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: Let's take a listen.
• 2:54
  Speaker 6: What I see is people who are frustrated with a
• 3:00
  Speaker 6: system that has consistently failed them.
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: Detroit's median household income is around $ 39, 000 a year, about
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: half the national median income. Jay Salata has run this
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: auto shop for 15 years.
• 3:14
  Speaker 7: Best shop in the city, man. Right here.
• 3:19
  Speaker 6: He says when people's budgets get tight, taking care of
• 3:21
  Speaker 6: their cars is one of the first places people might
• 3:24
  Speaker 6: cut back.
• 3:25
  Speaker 8: You can tell people are not driving unless it's necessary.
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: They're pushing a lot of the routine maintenance repairs further along.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: Do I put milk on the table or do I
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: do an oil change?
• 3:37
  Speaker 8: When would you say this started to pick up? Like
• 3:39
  Speaker 8: you notice people just feeling a little bit more cash strapped?
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: It's been the past year.
• 3:44
  Speaker 8: And then after the Iran war, I felt like it
• 3:49
  Speaker 8: really put a strain on the stress that people were
• 3:51
  Speaker 8: already enduring.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: 65-56.
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: You said you only got 65-10?
• 3:54
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: All right, I'll adjust it for you.
• 3:57
  Speaker 6: I'll help you out.
• 3:59
  Speaker 8: Everything is one up.
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: Even the oil change, they used to be $ 40, now.
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: It's $ 64.
• 4:03
  Speaker 7: If you do vote this November, after you do your
• 4:05
  Speaker 7: research a little bit, what's the thing you want politicians
• 4:09
  Speaker 7: to focus on the most?
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: Minimum wage.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: So a lot that's interesting there, obviously, Michigan being one
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: of the most critical Senate races in the entire country.
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: They've been hit by the war.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: I think it was interesting to hear him connecting directly
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: the struggles of his business with the Iran war. And
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: also Michigan more impacted in the trade war with Canada
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: than other states as well. There's a new poll out
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: this morning. This is from Suffolk, which is a pretty
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: highly rated pollster. They have Abdul El-Sayed at 47 percent
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: and Mike Rogers at 40 percent. So that would be
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: outside of the margin of error. I think that would
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: be about what you would expect, given the partisan direction
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: of the midterm elections that we've seen so far. Taking
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: a look, Nate Silver has Abdul at like a 75
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: percent chance to win at this point.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: It makes a lot of sense. I was telling you
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: before the show, Michigan and we will go through each
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: of these battleground polls. Some that you wouldn't expect are
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: tighter and some which you would or we wouldn't expect
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: are blowouts. And some you would expect seem very tight.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: This is where the individuality of each state actually makes
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: a big difference. Michigan has always been, in the Trump era,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: the last 10 years, a genuine razor-thin battleground. Trump wins
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: by only 10,000 votes in 2016, loses by some 100,000,
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: wins the state in 2024 by barely a percent or so.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: Don't forget that the candidate Mike Rogers himself loses to
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: Alyssa Slotkin in with a significant portion, some 100,000 or so,
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: of crossover Trump-Slotkin voters at that time who decided not
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: to vote for Rogers in that race. Put it all together,
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Rogers was facing a very dramatic uphill battle. And this
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: is where even the Iran war itself doesn't just factor in.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: What does Michigan happen to be near?
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: Canada. They have a ton of cross-border trade. Also the
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: auto industry.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: So the auto industry right now, we'll talk about this
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: a little bit in China, they are not happy with
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Trump because one of the things they're currently flirting with
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: is actually letting in a lot of Chinese automakers, which
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: all of Detroit, I mean, they're dead if any of
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: that happens. So they are lobbying Trump hard. You also
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: have had inflationary pressures on a lot of the Canada
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: tariffs for auto assembly. Add on top of that high
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: gas prices. I think, what's the average price of gas
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: in Michigan? Michigan is one of those states where generally, yeah, $ 4.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: 88.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: So it's actually up near $ 5 a gallon right now.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: I forget exactly why the local conditions- make it so
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: for those three particular Great Lakes states. But the point
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: remains that their individual factors were already like not just
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: lean D, but like tilt D, I guess, is what
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: I would say. And then Abdul, on top of that,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: you have a better candidate, And I mean, you know,
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: you talk about candidate quality, having a guy who literally
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: lost in a wave year.
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: Like, what are we doing here?
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And it's worth saying they have been thrown. I mean,
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: the Hassan thing, they've been going, you know, overtime for
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: months at this point, hammering. How dare you associate with
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Hassan Piker? And it doesn't appear that that is going
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: to be a an ultimately winning message, although you never know.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: We'll wait till Election Day. But if you don't want
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: to believe the polls, I completely understand that because the
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: polls have been very wrong. Instead, pay attention to what
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: the candidates are doing and how increasingly desperate they seem
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: in terms of their approaches, their attacks and their communications.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Here is Mike Rogers, who is the ultimate neocon of neocons,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: calling for some dramatic changes with regard to gas and
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: also calling for an end to the Iran war.
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: This is a five. Let's take a listen.
• 7:39
  Speaker 8: Michigan families are struggling with the price of everyday life.
• 7:42
  Speaker 8: Groceries cost too much. We have to bring prices down.
• 7:46
  Speaker 8: The war with Iran needs to end and end quickly.
• 7:49
  Speaker 8: When it does, energy costs will plummet. But Michigan families
• 7:53
  Speaker 8: can't afford to wait for that to happen. We need
• 7:55
  Speaker 8: to do something now.
• 7:56
  Speaker 7: I previously called for the suspension of the state and
• 7:59
  Speaker 7: federal gas tax, 70 cents a gallon. And another place
• 8:03
  Speaker 7: we can start, diesel. Diesel fuels the trucks that bring
• 8:06
  Speaker 7: groceries to the store.
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: It fuels the tractors that grow our food.
• 8:10
  Speaker 7: And when diesel costs more, it costs more to grow it,
• 8:13
  Speaker 7: ship it, stock it, and ultimately buy it. So until
• 8:16
  Speaker 7: this war is over, I'm calling for a temporary embargo
• 8:19
  Speaker 7: on American diesel exports.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Mike Rogers has been supporting the Iran war for literally decades,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: literally decades. He's been pushing for this thing. So, you know,
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: those poll numbers are bad when he's having to go.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: This needs to end. It needs to end quickly. Then
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: everything will be OK. He's not the only one. Put
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: a six up on the screen. Ashley Hinson, who is
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: the Republican nominee in Iowa. She says it very similar messaging.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: I think the bat signal went out here. Iowans are
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: being squeezed, shouldn't have to foot the bill at the
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: We need to use every option at our disposal to
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: provide some relief from high prices. That includes suspending the
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: gas tax, pausing diesel exports, unleashing E15 everywhere we can.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: That's their ethanol thing, I guess. Reinstating the $ 1 per
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: gallon biodiesel tax credit, creating a diesel relief program to
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: help our farmers and truckers. While doing this, we should
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: also ensure our highway trust fund is replenished so Iowans
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: don't suffer from crumbling roads and bridges. These actions to
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: lower costs are needed ASAP and... The war needs to
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: be brought to a successful and immediate end. I'm working
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: every day to deliver bipartisan results for Iowans. I will
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: work with anyone who is ready to tackle this challenge immediately.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: This comes on the heels of another ad that she
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: had cut where it was all about how she wanted
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: to work across the aisle with Democrats on affordability. So, again,
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: you look at the way that she is behaving. She
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: is not behaving as someone who is in a comfortable
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: position in Iowa, which is a very heavily Republican state,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: went overwhelmingly for Trump, very rural. These are the exact
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: voters that Democrats have really lost and performed badly with
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: over the years. And yet you can tell he or
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: she is running for her life.
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: Put, what is it, A-10, please, on the screen. This
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: came out this morning.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Numerous NPR poll, high-quality pollster, actually, has the Senate race.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Josh Turek, the Democrat, at 50 percent. Ashley Hinson at
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: 42 percent. And Josh Turek is one of these classic,
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: almost like blue dog style Democrats. He's doing ads with
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump at the border. He's like, I pledged to
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: work across the aisle. And, you know, he's just got
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: exactly the right message, which is it's all about affordability.
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: And this is kind of what I was alluding to
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: in the introduction.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: It appears that the Iowa race is much more lean
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: D than Texas.
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: How could that be? Let's take a look at Iowa,
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: the state itself. This is a.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: State which was dramatically hit by what happened with China. Remember,
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: significant parts of their exports were hit with those massive
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: tariffs after Liberation Day. They struggled initially with the tariffs,
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: also with Canada. Then they got hit by the fertilizer
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: crisis after what happened with Iran. And now they're getting
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: hit by diesel. It's a triple whammy. So it's like
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: one of those where Their crisis is.
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: Not six months old.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: It's 18 months old, basically, from the start of the election,
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: in particular, what happened with Liberation Day. So put all
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: of that together, you have the exact same conditions where
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: arguably you could actually say that Iowa, the Midwestern states,
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: and particularly those that export a lot of stuff to China,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: worst hit. And then on top of that, you have diesel.
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: So the conditions for where they are is also just looking,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: I think, the average price of gasoline in Iowa is
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: around $ 4.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: 35 a gallon. And so it's still It's one of
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: those where, you know, it's just high enough.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: Let me take a look at the diesel price, $ 631
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: a gallon in the state of Iowa. And then even
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: in Michigan, you know, Mike Rogers in his previous ad
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: had said, let's remove the federal and state gas tax,
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: they would still leave you at $ 4.
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: 10 a gallon. Yeah.
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: The entire state.
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: Josh, I wouldn't call him a blue dog. He's more
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: of a prairie populist.
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: That's fair.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: He positions himself. So he represents, he's in the state assembly.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: He's a very good candidate, I think, for the state
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: and just in general. Has a really inspiring life story.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: He was an Olympic, Paralympic gold medalist. And he's, you know,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: represents the reddest district in Iowa that's represented by a Democrat.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: He represents it. So he's shown some ability to to
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: win over voters on a, you know, a bipartisan basis.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: He's talking about cutting taxes for middle-class families, federal ban
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: on price gouging on food, raising the minimum wage, banning
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Wall Street private equity firms from purchasing single-family homes, focuses
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: on unions, focuses on anti-monopoly, antitrust. That's sort of the
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: lane that he's positioned himself in. But, I mean, really,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: the story is, I do think he's a strong candidate,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: but really the story here is the one that you're telling,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: which is that Iowa has been devastated.
• 12:47
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: That economy has struggled maybe more than any other in
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: the entire country directly because of Trump's policies on tariffs
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: and on the Iran war.
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: So they have really been hit.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: And then as we were talking about yesterday as well,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: farmers are also really reliant on credit and what the
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: interest rate is to finance their crops. So That has
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: been a really devastating situation for them. Let's talk a
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: little bit about the big picture here. So we can
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: put a two up on the screen. This is some
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: details about how people are feeling about Trump, because this
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: really is about the national mood here. They say Trump
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: has hurt the economy. 41% approve of Trump.
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: 56% disapprove.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: But we did just get, put A3 up on the screen,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: we did just get our first poll that has Trump
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: at only 29% approval rating. Everybody's been kind of waiting
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: for one of these to drop. This is from American
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Research Group. At this point, it's a bit of an outlier.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: It's the lowest that we've seen, but it's not that
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: far off from what the other polls are showing. This
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: is a dismally unpopular president. People are disgusted. They feel betrayed.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Some of his voters feel betrayed. They feel very unhappy
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: with where the economy is. They feel obviously very frustrated
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: with the fact that he got us into this war.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: As we heard from those voters earlier, they are directly
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: connecting the war to the struggles that they are suffering
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: in terms of their business and their livelihoods and certainly
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: at the gas pump. And so it has led to
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: an absolutely toxic situation for Republicans. Nate Silver put a
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: seven up on the screen, had a really interesting piece
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: where he made the argument that a lot of the
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: experts like the Cook Political Report, the Larry Sabato's crystal
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: ball type of expert ratings are playing it too safe
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: and underrating Democrats chances. So they have a bunch of
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: races that are rated as toss ups where he's like,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: these are not really toss ups. You're just low-key kind
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: of afraid to put yourself out there at this point.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: So he said that if he runs his model just
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: based on the fundamentals, no polling, what between the combination
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: of the president being unpopular and the typical midterm backlash
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: would indicate is a roughly 8.5 percent Democratic margin.
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: So Democratic popular vote victory.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: Then if you look at the average of the generic ballot,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: you also get a roughly 8.5% Democratic generic ballot advantage
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: as well. So he says, you know, it's kind of
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: nice because these two things line up. And then if
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: you consider how Trump performed in 2024, that would indicate
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: an 11-point swing for Democrats. Well, that's very similar to
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: what we're seeing in the overall polls. That would put
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: a state like Texas in play. It would put a
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: state like Iowa in play. It would even put a
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: state like Kansas a little bit further of a reach,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: but make it so that it's not insane to imagine
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: that Democrats could be competing there. If you truly are
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: in an 11-point swing environment, that is exactly what you
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: would expect to see. And that is, in fact, what
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: we're seeing in the polling. So I thought that was
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: really useful to break that down because some of these
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: states you go, Kansas?
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: Really?
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: Or Nebraska, which would be in a sort of similar
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: position as Kansas in this.
• 15:54
  Speaker 7: Really?
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Is that actually on the table for Dan Osborne to
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: be able to win there? And according to Nate, just
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: based on the fundamentals, based on all of the polling,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: if you put it all together, those sorts of things
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: are actually in play. And then the last thing that
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: he says is, at least in some of these races.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Democrats also have an advantage on candidate quality that seems
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: to be leading to when you poll like specifically, let's
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: say in Texas, that you have an even larger advantage
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: for Democrats than what would be indicated by the generic
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: ballot and those fundamentals.
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: And we do some quick math.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Dan Osborne, he lost 53 to
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: basically 53 to 47. So, OK, that's a six point swing.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: So if we assume D plus eight, well, now you're
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: in that territory.
• 16:35
  Speaker 8: Right.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: So if you just do some back of the napkin math,
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: on a lot of these states, it all starts to
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: make sense. And for some of our younger viewers, even
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: when I said the term blue dog, some people may
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: not even know what that means.
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: It's been so outdated.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: And you're right to say it because the term blue
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: dog became very loaded at the time where it kind
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: of embodied these Democrats who represent Republicans, but would often
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: vote with Republicans. That's why the term is very difficult.
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: When I use it, I just really mean it in
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: a sense of representing a very conservative district and somehow
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: managing to get yourself in that territory. But that did
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: exist in my lifetime. In fact, that is the politics
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: I remember the most from when I was growing up.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: And so it's not out of the realm of possibility
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: to have these types of candidates just arise in places
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: like Nebraska or Texas or anything. I mean, Texas in
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: particular seems very far out of reach. I think 1988
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: is the last time a Democrat won statewide in the race.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: I believe the last Democratic senator is Senator Lloyd Benson,
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: who famously had that moment of like, you're no Jack
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: Kennedy in his debate because he literally knew Jack Kennedy.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: That's how old and long it has been. In the
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: Texas front, it's actually a lot tighter. And so I
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: think we have that poll, guys. We can put it
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: up on the screen. I know I sent it earlier today.
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: I'll just talk a little bit about it. But what
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: it comes down to is Texas Southern is as university
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: has now released this new one, very useful actually in
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: parsing what's happening. So Texas Senate, they have a Tallarico 47,
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: Paxton 46. Now governor, they have Abbott 49, Hinojosa 45,
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: Railroad Commissioner 44, 42, Patrick, who is the Lieutenant Governor 47, 41,
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: Middleton 47, 42, Comptroller. So basically the breakdown is it's
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: like in a normal race, the Republicans leading by six
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: or seven points. But in the tight ones or in
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: the controversial ones, that's where you see effectively a tie
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: within the margin of error, which is 2.3 percent.
• 18:37
  Speaker 8: Now, why?
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: Like how?
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: It doesn't actually make sense. Trump did not win Texas
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: by more than he won Iowa. How could that be possible?
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: That is where the individual factors differ. come into play.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: Texas's economy is much more robust under the Trump economy
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: than Iowa in particular, because remember, they actually pump and
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: sell the oil. So there are a lot of people
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: there making insane, like generational wealth in the city of
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: Houston or Midland or the Guys who work in the
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: port of Houston or any of these places, the refineries,
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, they.
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: Are making insane funds.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: They also had the data center boom, which, yes, has
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: a voter backlash in West Texas. But all of those
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: blue collar workers are printing whenever it comes to their
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: jobs that they're, you know, the electricians and all that
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: they're working on.
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: Their behalf.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: They also had a huge population inflow. They have much
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: better housing prices than the rest of the nation. So
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: the fundamentals of their economy is still very different. And
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: gasoline there is still not even $ 4 a gallon with
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: where things are right now. So it actually does make
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: sense to me that Texas is going to be a
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: lot closer. And that's where, if Paxton was a normal candidate,
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: he's going to win that race. I'm almost certain of it.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: But this is, and I mean, I didn't think he'd
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: win it by a lot, probably a Beto margin by
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: beats him by two that that's exactly though, where, you know,
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't yet call it, I think for Tallarico or,
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: you know, I wouldn't call it for anybody, but I
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: would say Tallarico is facing not an uphill battle per se,
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: but really the fight of his life. And the reason
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: why is that the fundamentals of the state are just really,
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: really different. And you also have this ocean of money,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: which is now coming in for Ken Paxton. So the
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: dynamic of the race has changed where a lot of
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: these MAGA billionaires are starting to flood the airwaves on
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: his behalf, not just the Donald Trump MAGA Inc. The
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: Texas oil men and all those, they're all starting to
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: cut the checks. Elon's starting to put money. Remember, I mean,
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: he's got a lot at stake. He's got Stargate and
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: his whole company. I'm pretty sure he's an Austin resident,
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: Giga Austin and all of that. So all the businessmen
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: who rely on the Republicans there to run the state
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: like a machine are Well, like for them, they're starting
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: to panic and blanket the airwaves.
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: So it's a much more competitive race.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: You do have Trump's pollster who is saying, it took
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: me a long time to believe that Texas is real,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: but Texas is real. The Republicans have a problem there. And,
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: you know, I think Paxton, as you said, is a
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: real issue. Maybe without him, they'd be able to eke
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: it down. I think it's a challenging landscape, but we'll see.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, Texas has long been the The Democratic white whale,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: you know, there was an assumption that, OK, because the demographics,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: there's a majority minority population, that this should be a
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: place the Democrats should be able to win. They've never
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: been able to pull it off. So we'll see. I
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: know they're going very hard in the paint against Tallarico
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: with a lot of ads about cultural issues. So we're
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: going to find out whether those have enough salience in
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: a year when, you know, economic concerns are top of mind.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: But you mentioned money, and this is a real problem
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: for Democrats. Put AA8 up on the screen. Republicans have
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: way more money. I mean, way more money than Democrats do.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: They have a financial advantage in terms of overall spending.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: This is not just with the candidates, but the super
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: PACs and all in. They have an overall advantage in
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: the vast majority. of the key states here. So that
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: is going to be a real challenge. The party and
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: its allies, the Republicans and their allies, are planning to
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: spend about $ 221 million more on advertising than Democrats and
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: their allies from Monday through Election Day. That's according to
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: Ad Impact. So they're tracking how many TV ads Republicans have.
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: Purchased versus Democrats.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: And so you have a massive, massive margin advantage for Republicans.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: Part of this is because you've got a lot of
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: business leaders who want to keep Republicans in power because
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: they're friendlier to their agenda. You also have on the
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Democratic side a lot of big donors who are still
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: dispirited about the whole Biden-Kamala situation and feel really burned there. Remember,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of like questions about how the money
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: was spent under Kamala. And then obviously they ultimately lost.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: And of course, the whole Biden cover up of his
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: age and his frailty, his decline, mental decline. That left
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths. So
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: there's still a very, even as Democrats are poised for
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: this massive wave year, among the donor base, there's still
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: a lot of apathy and a lot of disgust with
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: the way that the party has operated before. Then you
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: look at the DNC, which is a mess and it crumbles.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: And I mean, let's not even get into that. But
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: in any case, it all amounts to Republicans having this
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: massive financial edge. And I would just say, I remember
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: back to 2018. 2018 was a very good year for Democrats,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: no doubt about it.
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: But some of the reach.
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: states, some of the districts that were like, oh, my God,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: like the equivalent of Kansas this time, we were like, oh,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: my God, there's no way Democrats could win there, but they're.
• 23:29
  Speaker 5: Up in the polls.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: A lot of that shifted in just the last couple
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: of weeks. Now, in 2018, it specifically had to do
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: with Kavanaugh. I've seen the polling. I was involved in
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: some of the races that cycle. I saw the way
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: that partisans were energized and came home because of the
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: Kavanaugh hearings and the way that all went down. You
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: could see something similar happening this time around. That is,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: I think, very theoretically possible. I'm sure Trump is going to,
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: you know, what, migrant caravan or something. He's going to
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: try to throw some kind of red meat into the
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: mix to try to get exactly that effect. Because I
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: don't think Republicans can hold on to the House, but
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: can they stem some of the losses in the Senate
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: and some of those reshapes in the Nebraska, in the Kansas,
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: in the Iowa? That could still be very much on
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: the table. if they're able to leverage both this financial
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: advantage and some sort of political moment that galvanizes the Republican. Yeah.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: And that's one thing I would say about Texas is
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: just don't underestimate it. It's one of those where, you know,
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: it's one thing for people who are on summer vacation
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: to theorize Tallarico. It is a whole other thing for
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: the evangelicals and the church groups. And look, I grew
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: up there like I know these people. They're not going
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: to just sit back and let Democrats take over the state,
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: especially Governor Abbott. Like, that is one where I would
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: say it's a lock, unless it's genuine, like, insane wave
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: where with Tallarico, and this is beyond even the cultural stuff,
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: this is a machine. It's not about Ken Paxton versus
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: John Cornyn. Like I was talking about with Elon, the
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: whole state runs on Republican rule.
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: You can't just let that away. There's billions of.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: Dollars that are at stake whenever it comes to, I mean,
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: is Tallarico going to get you the same tax credit?
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: Is he going to fight for oil and gas?
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is existential whenever it comes to a
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: lot of these things, how the entire economy is structured.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: And so I find it hard to believe that they
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: are not going to crawl over broken glass to prevent
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: a Democrat from winning, especially if it's this close. Iowa
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: is different because for them, I feel like they're disgusted
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: genuinely with Trump. And I think there's a difference between
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: disgusted and disappointed. and directly impacted. Texans are just not
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: as directly impacted.
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: By this right now.
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: That's my assessment. But I should say, as I said,
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: I think I spoke to somebody very knowledgeable with real
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: view in my home state, and he had told me that, look,
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: in a wave election, we will see Hinojosa in the
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: governor's mansion in Texas. Like, that would happen. However, the
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: bigger panic button right now is Paxton. And that is
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: where Paxton- The problem for him is that his candidate
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: quality is just on that side where it's not just
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: a scandals. From what I hear, the guy doesn't like
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: to campaign. Like he doesn't, he's not even working hard
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: in terms of like the way that Tallarico is. And
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: so that, I mean, it matters, right? Like if you
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: don't come to the county, I'm not going to say
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: this stuff matters a ton, but it's like when you're
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: dealing with margins of a hundred thousand, 200,000 votes, whether
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: you showed up in the town or not actually does
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: seem to make a little bit of a difference. It's
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: just enough there where people in the state are not
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: energized by Ken Paxton.
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: And so, I don't know.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: Like I would say, as you talked about with 2018,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: it's not even just Kavanaugh. Reality has got to set
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: in for a lot of these deeply conservative voters. They're like,
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: oh my God, this really could be it. I mean,
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: remember the Virginia thing, which happened where they were changing
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: the map? I mean, of course, the Virginia Democrats won
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: that election. However, Republicans came out to vote a lot
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: more than people had expected because even though they were like, look,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: I don't like Trump and all the, but like, this
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: is it. Like we have no representation period. We got
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: to come out and vote. A lot of people came
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: out to vote.
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: For that.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: So don't underestimate that, too, when it comes to the Senate.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: People know the stakes, or at least they start to
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: wake up around October.
• 27:15
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: Last thing, just to reiterate this Nate Silver point, because
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: I wanted to get the specific states just to give
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: us all kind of a mental framework here. So again,
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: if we're talking about an 11-point swing, theoretically, from 2024,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: he says in 2024, Trump won Ohio by 11 points, Florida, Alaska,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: and Iowa by 13 points, and Texas by 14. So
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: if you swing the entire political climate 11 points to
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: the left, Ohio becomes a pure toss up. The rest
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: become almost toss ups. Even Kansas, which was Trump plus 16,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: is not that far behind. So that's the type of
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: environment you would have to be in where it's an
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: 11 point plus swing to expect to see, you know,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Florida and Iowa. By the way, there has been some
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: polling that has shown Angie Nixon, you know, with the
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: shot in Florida, which I think everybody had sort of
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: written the state off. I still think that's a very
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: long shot. But when you look at that level of
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: a swing, you have to say, OK, that actually wouldn't
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: be totally crazy. And I've seen some interesting things in
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: terms of polling coming out of the state and dissatisfaction
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: with Trump on economics and also on immigration in particular
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: in the state. So In any case, that's kind of
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: where the national landscape is. And, you know, some individual
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: state by state differences are going to be the key,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: whether it's candidate quality or specific economic conditions. But, you know,
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: you're looking at some pretty dire situations here for Republicans
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: when you're talking about a state like Iowa being not
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: only in play, but potentially tilt Democratic. That's a pretty
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: wild situation.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: And even if they do win it, they're going to
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: have to spend an ocean of money to do so.
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: and they're also dumping money in places where you talked
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: about Ohio. I was just looking, there's not a single
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: poll in the last month that has a Sherrod Brown,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: not winning by a significant margin, like not one.
• 29:02
  Speaker 5: That shows the, uh, Amy Acton, uh, Vivek Ramaswamy.
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: What's the latest Alzheimer? Oh, no, I haven't seen it. Oh,
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: it's just about drugs.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: It's about the drug that he funded. And it's a
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: man who lost his wife to Alzheimer's and he's like,
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: you scam me.
• 29:16
  Speaker 5: And yeah, I just want my wife back.
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: It's, It's brutal. I don't know the specifics or any
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: of that.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: I did see Vivek out today with one of his
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: long essays on Twitter. He's like, how we can attack
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: the gas prices. The word Iran, I believe, did not
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: appear a single time.
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: So, I mean, that's a good example. And actually, you know,
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: even better.
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: I mean, in fairness, as governor, it's not like you're
• 29:37
  Speaker 5: going to be voting on the Iran war.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: For sure.
• 29:39
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: Then why'd you run for president and say Trump is
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: your best friend, right? It's like this is one where
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: it's like, well, you have a bunch of opinions about
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: foreign policy. It's like, but now you want to run
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: for governor. And don't forget, a governor is exactly the
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: type of race where blowouts in both sides are actually
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: more significant. likely because when the stakes are not national,
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: people don't care nearly as much. Republican states are much
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: more willing to elect Democratic governors than they are Democratic
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: representatives because they're not taking up or down votes whenever
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: it comes to the big national issues or supporting Trump.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: I actually think that they could be in bigger trouble
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: than the Republican candidate on the Senate.
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: Ballot, specifically just because of the way things have worked there.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: And it's like Ohio, again, from what I understand, the
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: economic situation, very similar, I think, to some of these
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: other Midwestern states.
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: It's not great.
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: And the general approval of Trump and everything on the
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: ballot there has not been good. The previous governor has
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: bucked Trump pretty significantly, and that's the way that he
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: was able to maintain his popularity.
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: Vivek cannot do that because he literally ran for president.
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: Yeah, he's a bad candidate.
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: He just has something.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: About him that people do not like. Well, that's actually
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: a good transition. Sherrod Brown is facing a wave of
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: cash coming in against him from the crypto industry, so
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: it's a good transition to talk about crypto and AI
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: spending in the election with Alex Boras. So we've talked
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: a lot about Israel lobby spending on this show. We
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: wanted to dig now into a large source of midterm spending,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: which is coming from the tech world. There are a
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: lot of very interesting dynamics at play here. And we
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: have literally the perfect guest to talk about what is
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: going on in some of these races. Alex Boras is
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: a New York State Assembly member. He also ran for
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Congress and had $ 8 million in AI super PAC money
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: spent against him in that race and, unfortunately, narrowly lost,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: I'm sure, in part because of that money.
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: But, Alex, great to have you.
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: Good to see you. Thanks for having me.
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah, of course.
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: So let's start by talking about why you earned the
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: ire of these super PACs.
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: Let's put B4 up on the screen.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: You have been a major advocate for state-level AI regulation
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: in your role as a New York State Assemblymember. This
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Politico article is saying that New York is moving forward
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: with some of the landmark AI legislation that you have
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: helped to draft and push forward. So just talk a
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: little bit about what's going on at the.
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: State level in New York.
• 31:56
  Speaker 6: The states are the only level that's actually regulated AI.
• 32:00
  Speaker 6: So when I came into office, I was the first
• 32:02
  Speaker 6: Democrat elected in New York State at any level with
• 32:05
  Speaker 6: a degree in computer science. And so I did a
• 32:08
  Speaker 6: lot of things around tech, many of which were.
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: Big consensus items and not seen as strongly aggressive. And initially,
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: that's what the RAISE Act was too.
• 32:22
  Speaker 6: But that is the bill that really drew the ire
• 32:25
  Speaker 6: of the tech industry. The RAISE Act was setting very
• 32:29
  Speaker 6: basic safety standards on frontier AI development, the most advanced companies. So,
• 32:36
  Speaker 6: you know, not by name, we did it by complexity
• 32:38
  Speaker 6: and spending, but Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Meta, that's really who
• 32:43
  Speaker 6: we were talking about in that bill. And it required
• 32:46
  Speaker 6: them to have a safety plan that they made public
• 32:49
  Speaker 6: to report critical safety incidents, which when we were arguing
• 32:54
  Speaker 6: this bill in 2025, they said this was all theoretical.
• 32:56
  Speaker 6: I think the summer shows it very much was not theoretical.
• 33:01
  Speaker 8: Yep.
• 33:01
  Speaker 6: And put some other requirements on them, originally requiring third-party
• 33:04
  Speaker 6: audits as well, although that got stripped out as we
• 33:07
  Speaker 6: worked through the legislative process. And the fact that I
• 33:10
  Speaker 6: had dared to put any regulation on this sort of
• 33:12
  Speaker 6: development made me oligarchy enemy number one. And so they
• 33:17
  Speaker 6: declared me their top target in the country, pledged to
• 33:21
  Speaker 6: spend at least $ 10 million against me at the start
• 33:24
  Speaker 6: of it to send a message to anyone else thinking
• 33:28
  Speaker 6: of regulating AI that at least the industry thinks that's
• 33:31
  Speaker 6: a mistake.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: Let's put, what is it, B3, please, on the screen,
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: which details some of this. Big Tech spent millions on
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: this single U.S. congressional race, and it won't be the
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: last time some $ 8 million of pro-AI political action money
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: was funded towards you. Can you speak, Alex, a little
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: bit about who these groups are? Because as I understand it,
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: this is a bipartisan phenomenon. Some of this is also
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: extremely concentrated amongst Democrats, and specifically to try and prevent
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: any sort of legislation or even comment in the vein
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: that you just made.
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: So why don't you break that down for us?
• 34:11
  Speaker 6: Where they are spending is bipartisan. They're spending in Democratic
• 34:14
  Speaker 6: races and Republican races. Their funding is not that bipartisan.
• 34:18
  Speaker 6: I think the only prominent named Democrat was Ron Conway,
• 34:21
  Speaker 6: who contributed something like $ 500, 000 out of.
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: Their $ 100 million-plus spending. That they are raising.
• 34:27
  Speaker 6: It's really coming from three people primarily, which are Ben Horowitz,
• 34:33
  Speaker 6: Mark Andreessen, who in the last filing was the RNC's
• 34:36
  Speaker 6: single largest mega donor, and Greg Brockman, the president of OpenAI,
• 34:43
  Speaker 6: who in a.
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: Previous filing was Donald Trump's.
• 34:46
  Speaker 6: Single largest mega donor. And so this is why feelings
• 34:51
  Speaker 6: about AI are actually quite bipartisan. Democrats and Republicans universally
• 34:55
  Speaker 6: want there to be more regulation on AI.
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: I think you're seeing the Democratic Party start to wake
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: up to that. And Republicans are mixed.
• 35:05
  Speaker 6: You've had some really good comments coming from some, but
• 35:07
  Speaker 6: there's just so much more Republican mega donor money pushing
• 35:10
  Speaker 6: against any regulation that I think it's been tougher for
• 35:13
  Speaker 6: them to listen to the American people.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: So, Alice, break this down for me because it's been
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit confusing to me. You have leading the
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: future is the pack that you're referring to that dropped
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: millions and millions of dollars into your race to try
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: to make an example of you. There's another, and that's
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: sort of open, Greg Brockman, open AI. It's sort of
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: seen as like open AI aligned. Then you have public-first action,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: which is seen as more anthropic line. In fact, anthropic
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: has given millions of dollars to that super PAC.
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: You also have a new group called Guardrails Alliance, which.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: Is made up actually, it's more grassroots, made up of
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of tech employees, including some open AI employees
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: who have come out and said, we want to do
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: something very different from what a lot of the executives
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: at our company want to do. So can you break
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: down for us, like, what is Anthropic doing? How is
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: their thing different than the OpenAI aligned thing? Help us
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: understand what these various dynamics are.
• 36:09
  Speaker 6: The biggest divide is between the employees and the executives
• 36:13
  Speaker 6: across every company. I think the vast majority of people
• 36:17
  Speaker 6: who are working in the AI space actually want there
• 36:21
  Speaker 6: to be regulations. They're the people who are closest to
• 36:23
  Speaker 6: the technology. They see how powerful it is. And so
• 36:27
  Speaker 6: both in terms of contributions to me, but contributions to
• 36:31
  Speaker 6: groups like Guardrails Alliance that exist to counteract leading the future,
• 36:35
  Speaker 6: you're seeing a lot of people at all of the
• 36:37
  Speaker 6: labs say, yeah, we want regulation. This is a intellectually
• 36:42
  Speaker 6: challenging problem that we're building something really powerful, but the
• 36:45
  Speaker 6: question of who decides how it should be used and
• 36:48
  Speaker 6: what the limits are shouldn't be made just in Silicon
• 36:51
  Speaker 6: Valley or just by their CEOs. Now you have some
• 36:55
  Speaker 6: of the executives who don't want there to be any
• 36:58
  Speaker 6: regulation whatsoever. And so they're willing to spend big in
• 37:02
  Speaker 6: order to get that. You also have Chris Lehane, who's
• 37:04
  Speaker 6: the head of global affairs for OpenAI, who helped set
• 37:08
  Speaker 6: up leading the future, although he's now stepping back or
• 37:11
  Speaker 6: claiming to step back from it. And so you have
• 37:14
  Speaker 6: a small executive group that is willing to spend big to.
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: Have their way with regulation.
• 37:22
  Speaker 6: And then you have the vast majority of Americans, but
• 37:25
  Speaker 6: even just the vast majority of employees that are saying, no, no, no,
• 37:28
  Speaker 6: that is not how we.
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: Should have democracy here. We should actually let the people
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: decide where this is going.
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: So how do open AIs, like the way they're actually
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: spending money, the way they're lobbying, the PACs they're funding,
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: how does that square with Sam Altman now coming out
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: and being concerned and we need to do something and
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: embracing the call to slow down the pace, which, you know,
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: in my opinion, if you're racing towards a cliff, you
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: should just stop, not just slow down the pace. And
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: I don't think we should leave it in the hands
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: of these guys to decide whether or not they feel
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: that the project is safe or not.
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: But in any case, how do his words and.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: Theoretical concerns about safety square with what the money is
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: actually doing?
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: They don't. And I want to be very clear about that.
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: They absolutely do not square.
• 38:11
  Speaker 6: And so when the words are different, the time comes
• 38:16
  Speaker 6: for actual action. And so if OpenAI is changing their tune,
• 38:21
  Speaker 6: if the executives at OpenAI are changing their tune and
• 38:23
  Speaker 6: want regulation, Greg Brockman should defund Leading the Future. They
• 38:28
  Speaker 6: should declare that they're not going to give any money
• 38:30
  Speaker 6: to build American AI, which is the separate C4 that
• 38:34
  Speaker 6: Leading the Future established that can spend tens of millions
• 38:39
  Speaker 6: of dollars and is doing that as well to make
• 38:41
  Speaker 6: sure there's no regulation. That is the biggest obstacle to
• 38:45
  Speaker 6: getting real safety passed. And as long as executives at
• 38:49
  Speaker 6: OpenAI are going to continue to fund both of those organizations,
• 38:52
  Speaker 6: they're talking out of both sides of their mouths.
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: You mentioned there Ron Conway. And so that.
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: Immediately piqued my interest because former presidential candidate Kamala Harris
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: actually just celebrated Jay Carney, who, you know, trip back
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: in time, was the press secretary for President Obama.
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: He left.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: He went to go work for Amazon. Carney has now
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: actually joined Mr. Conway's new firm, to run an initiative
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: called Project Blueprint. The purpose was to, quote, rebuild bonds
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: between leaders in AI and Democrats who are demanding new
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: rules to regulate the technology. This was hailed by Kamala
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: as a step in the right direction. However, you just
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: mentioned Conway as one of those people who actually helped
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: fund the organization lobbying against you. So what do you
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: make of this Carney-led initiative, which appears to be kind
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: of an Obama and a Kamala Harris way of adopting
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: AI safety type legislation?
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: I was pretty confused by the announcement of the initiative.
• 39:54
  Speaker 6: Not of Kamala or Obama saying good things about someone
• 39:57
  Speaker 6: they used to work with. I think that's a pretty
• 40:00
  Speaker 6: normal human thing. But the announcement from Jay Carney was
• 40:05
  Speaker 6: that he's going over there to repair relationships between the
• 40:10
  Speaker 6: Democratic Party and tech.
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: No thanks.
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: And the confusing thing to.
• 40:14
  Speaker 6: Me is like, If you look at donations from the
• 40:17
  Speaker 6: tech industry, number of donations or volunteers or any sort
• 40:21
  Speaker 6: of engagement.
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: Tech workers are pretty democratic. There doesn't need much repairing there.
• 40:28
  Speaker 6: So maybe what he's referring to is repairing relationships with
• 40:32
  Speaker 6: the few executives that are spending tens of millions of
• 40:35
  Speaker 6: dollars to stop any regulation from happening. I don't think
• 40:38
  Speaker 6: we need to repair relationships with those people. I think
• 40:40
  Speaker 6: we need to beat them.
• 40:41
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: I think I would like to see more antagonistic relationships
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: with those particular individuals personally. You know, Alex, they really
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: tried to make an example of you by dumping all
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: this money into your race. And because you were such
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: a prominent advocate and because you yourself have the computer
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: science background, that's what made you a target.
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: Put B1 up on the screen.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: You now have this Politico report saying that Democratic consultants—
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: are telling candidates like, maybe just don't talk about AI.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: Like maybe let's just downplay that because we don't want,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: and this is now I'm reading between the lines, we
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: don't want what happened to Alex to happen to you.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: So do you think that their attempt to effectively make
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: an example of you, was it effective?
• 41:23
  Speaker 7: Did it work?
• 41:24
  Speaker 8: No.
• 41:25
  Speaker 6: And this is, you know, politics 101 from the super
• 41:29
  Speaker 6: PAC side. If you just want to bury one candidate,
• 41:33
  Speaker 6: you just, don't announce it, you spend a whole bunch
• 41:35
  Speaker 6: of money three weeks before the election, and then you
• 41:38
  Speaker 6: wait until later and see what happens. They announced eight
• 41:41
  Speaker 6: months before my primary that I was gonna be their
• 41:43
  Speaker 6: number one target, and they were gonna spend upwards of
• 41:46
  Speaker 6: 10 million against me. That wasn't to beat me, that
• 41:50
  Speaker 6: was to send a message to everyone else in the country,
• 41:54
  Speaker 6: don't talk.
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: About this issue.
• 41:56
  Speaker 6: And when you hear Democratic advisors echo the advice that
• 42:01
  Speaker 6: is coming from the people who are threatening candidates, It's
• 42:04
  Speaker 6: pretty disappointing. I think what my race showed was that
• 42:08
  Speaker 6: actually standing with the American people, again, regardless of party,
• 42:12
  Speaker 6: we are remarkably unified on this issue. But standing with
• 42:15
  Speaker 6: the American people is actually an electoral boost. And so
• 42:18
  Speaker 6: you're seeing more and more candidates who are being asked
• 42:21
  Speaker 6: about it in their town halls, being asked about it
• 42:24
  Speaker 6: by voters on the street and realizing, wait, this is
• 42:27
  Speaker 6: a core concern and I need a real answer to this.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: You know, I wonder if your primary was now, if
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: the result wouldn't be different. like you were just a
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: little bit ahead of the concerns because you can see
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: the way that now people are really paying attention to
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: what's going on.
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: Do you have the same sense?
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: It may be. You know, there's always these if, ands
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: or buts.
• 42:48
  Speaker 6: As I said on primary night, the message that we
• 42:51
  Speaker 6: were trying to send in our campaign was far more
• 42:54
  Speaker 6: important than the actual person that is in this seat.
• 42:57
  Speaker 6: And the message that we sent came through loud and
• 42:59
  Speaker 6: clear that It is time for the American people to
• 43:02
  Speaker 6: have a say in the direction of AI, that doing
• 43:04
  Speaker 6: so is both the right policy and the right political boost.
• 43:09
  Speaker 6: And I've been very pleased to see that more and
• 43:12
  Speaker 6: more candidates are taking up this mantle. And I am
• 43:16
  Speaker 6: still the only person in America that Leading the Future
• 43:19
  Speaker 6: has spent money against. They've realized that strategy isn't working
• 43:22
  Speaker 6: and their money isn't there. And hopefully I'll be the
• 43:24
  Speaker 6: last candidate that Leading the Future ever beats.
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: Let's put B2 up on the screen because it's not
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: just AI coming from the tech world. You also have
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: the crypto industry dumping tons of money in particular into
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: this race against Sherrod Brown. You know, they're they're angry
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: at him for some of the work that he did
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: previously in the Senate. They had already spent tens of
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: millions of dollars to defeat him successfully last time around.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: And now they want to make sure that he remains
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: in retirement. You know, but what do you see in
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: terms of how Democrats feel and approach the crypto industry?
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Because not only do they make an example of him,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: also Katie Porter had a ton of crypto money spent
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: against her and they were successfully able to defeat her.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: Did these sorts of things also put a chill into
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Democratic candidates? who may have previously been open to more
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: regulation or scrutiny of the crypto industry?
• 44:19
  Speaker 6: Anytime there is a, you know, eight-figure or nine-figure effort
• 44:23
  Speaker 6: in politics, I assure you everyone in D.C.
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: Is taking notice of that. I think what's interesting in
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: this spending is they did.
• 44:29
  Speaker 6: Not announce, they announced they were going after Sherry Brown,
• 44:32
  Speaker 6: who is not in the Senate and so didn't just
• 44:35
  Speaker 6: have a vote on clarity, but not going after Susan
• 44:38
  Speaker 6: Collins in Maine, who voted against the Clarity Act, which
• 44:40
  Speaker 6: is their stated reason.
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: So It feels like maybe there's some partisan undertones here.
• 44:44
  Speaker 6: I would also point out that Ron Conway famously gave
• 44:49
  Speaker 6: to Fairshake and broke with them because they went after
• 44:52
  Speaker 6: Sherrod Brown. And he thought that Sherrod Brown was a
• 44:54
  Speaker 6: good candidate. And so maybe this is a time again
• 44:57
  Speaker 6: where we are seeing a break. And what was an
• 45:00
  Speaker 6: ideological vehicle is just becoming a partisan one.
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: We'll have to pay attention.
• 45:04
  Speaker 6: But the big difference between crypto and AI is that Crypto.
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: Doesn't affect everyone.
• 45:11
  Speaker 6: There's a small subset of America who works in crypto,
• 45:14
  Speaker 6: and so they are the voters who are most tuned
• 45:16
  Speaker 6: into it. AI is affecting everyone's kids, everyone's job, everyone's environment.
• 45:22
  Speaker 6: It really is an entire country discussion. My guess is
• 45:26
  Speaker 6: that the money that is being spent there to convince
• 45:28
  Speaker 6: Americans not to believe their lying eyes will be even
• 45:31
  Speaker 6: less effective.
• 45:32
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: I know you were at the event with Bernie and
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: famously Steve Bannon were both at as well. You know,
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: how are you feeling about the prospects of getting some
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: sort of meaningful legislation passed on, you know, what would
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: likely need to be a bipartisan basis at some point?
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: I'm optimistic, though cautiously optimistic.
• 45:52
  Speaker 6: I mean, at that event, you had not just Bernie
• 45:54
  Speaker 6: and Steve Bannon, but you had Greg Kazar, chair of
• 45:58
  Speaker 6: the CPC, and Republican Congressman Chip Roy both speaking at
• 46:02
  Speaker 6: the same time. You've had comments from Republican senators like
• 46:06
  Speaker 6: John Kennedy saying that AI threats are real and need
• 46:10
  Speaker 6: to be taken seriously, from Kevin Cramer in North Dakota
• 46:13
  Speaker 6: who said that Trump's position on AI is the least
• 46:15
  Speaker 6: popular political position in America. So you're seeing bipartisan voices
• 46:20
  Speaker 6: call for real action here.
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: That gives me a lot of optimism.
• 46:24
  Speaker 6: The one bit of caution is that I think leading
• 46:28
  Speaker 6: the future and Build American AI have realized how much
• 46:31
  Speaker 6: momentum there is. And even if they could stop the
• 46:34
  Speaker 6: federal government from taking action, they know that the states
• 46:37
  Speaker 6: are going.
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: To continue, right?
• 46:38
  Speaker 6: Where we started this conversation is the states are the
• 46:41
  Speaker 6: only level that has regulated AI, and the RAISE Act
• 46:44
  Speaker 6: was minor compared to what is going to come in
• 46:48
  Speaker 6: 2027 and 2028.
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: I'm very optimistic about that.
• 46:52
  Speaker 6: But Build American AI has realized that, and so they've
• 46:54
  Speaker 6: changed their tune. And they've started tweeting and putting out
• 46:57
  Speaker 6: messages of, we need to do something this year, the
• 47:00
  Speaker 6: undertone being, that something has to include preempting the states
• 47:04
  Speaker 6: from taking any action in the future. And that has
• 47:07
  Speaker 6: to be just an absolute red line for those in Congress.
• 47:10
  Speaker 6: Do not take away the one level of government that
• 47:13
  Speaker 6: has been successful in regulating AI that is akin to
• 47:16
  Speaker 6: taking away Americans' voices.
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: Well said.
• 47:19
  Speaker 5: Alex Boris, thank you so much. This is very helpful.
• 47:20
  Speaker 5: I appreciate it.
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: Thanks, man. Thank you.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: Turning now to China, previewing a big summit, President Xi
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: Jinping of China. will land here in the United States.
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: He'll attend the United Nations, but also attend a state
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: reception in Washington with President Trump, where they're literally rolling
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: out the red carpet and bending over backwards to try
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: and to please Xi in this high-stakes clash between the
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: two leaders. Let's put C1 up here on the screen. Clearly,
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: the number one topic of discussion, at least in the interim,
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: will be AI. And so Scott Besant, the Treasury Secretary,
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: previewed some of this, saying that the U.S.-China AI dialogue
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: will start ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. The Treasury Secretary
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: said sides are working towards a, quote, shared vision after
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: talks with his Chinese counterpart. In fact, some of the
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: details of this are kind of fascinating. Let's put C3
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: up there on the screen. This was from Fox Business. Presumably,
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: it was leaked by the Treasury Secretary's team. They say
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: sources familiar with the talks tell me Treasury Secretary Scott
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: Besson and the U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer President Trump
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: will give a thumbs up or thumbs down on the
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: deal this week before meetings. with president she the reason
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: why that's interesting is that that literally only exists off
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: for de-confliction in the military and obviously the prehistorical precedent
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: for it is the cuban missile crisis in the hotline
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: between the two countries so despite all of trump's talk
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: and all that the proposal itself is now already rising
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: to the way that we have governance of nuclear weapons
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: and it is interesting because if you'd gone back six months,
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: I don't think AI would have been the number one
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: thing on their agenda.
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: It would have been trade.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: And let's not forget, I mean, that if you want
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: to talk about what's going to affect you today, like
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: that is actually what it is.
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: China is not buckling at all.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: In fact, from what I've understood, I've been reading some
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: of the analysts about how they're coming in. They truly
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: believe that they have won the negotiations. Because if you'll
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: remember after the immediate like we're going to 100 percent,
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: they're like, OK, we're going to 150.
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: We don't care.
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: Is that they believe that their ultimate trump card, if
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: you will, was rare earth minerals. Is that they think
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: that the threats over the export control on rare earth
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: minerals effectively stopping a number of critical industries in the U.S.
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: and Trump's AI bet. mean that they have a stranglehold
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: on the U.S.
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: Economy. I don't think they're wrong.
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: So they're coming in with this kind of theory where
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: they have the upper hand in the trade negotiation and
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: on the A.I., Which is basically, you don't tell us
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: what to do. If you want to keep this export
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: control thing up, we can play the exact same game.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: They have, from what I understand, they have two goals
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: that they want more than anything. They want at least
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: some sort of detente on the trade war. And the
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: number one for them, biggest agenda item, which is the
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: biggest question mark, is Chinese cars. They want to be
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: able to have the kind of deal that we have
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: with Toyota and all the other Japanese companies, where as
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: long as they build here in the United States, they're
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: allowed to sell here. So that is number one, at
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: least one of the number one items for President Xi,
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: to get a Chinese car factory in the United States.
• 50:49
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: I think the AI thing is actually very encouraging. I mean,
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: I don't want to oversell it. Obviously, it's not everything
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: that we need, but there are two parts of it
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: that I find encouraging. First, just you have to build
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: on some small wins. Right now it feels so impossible.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Oh my God, how could we do, coordinate an international slowdown?
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: How could we regulate the pace of the frontier, recursive
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: self-improvement or any of these things? Because we've got China
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: to deal with. When you have these little moments of collaboration,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: you're able to build some goodwill and then those things
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: can build on each other. So it's just an encouraging
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: reminder that it is possible as human beings existing in
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: the world to be able to collaborate and institute some
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: sort of global regulatory regime.
• 51:36
  Speaker 5: As we did with nuclear weapons.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: And I'm not gonna say that anti-nuclear proliferation has been perfect,
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: but the world still exists. We haven't blown each other
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: up yet, so that seems like a win to me.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: And the other piece of this that encourages me is
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: the fact that they do seem to be using that
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: as a sort of model. And I think it is
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: the right model based on what we have in history.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: It's not gonna be exactly the same, But at least
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: it's the sort of framework that mentally our lawmakers can
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: work with and start to build out some of this
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: apparatus so that because this is a global development for
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: all of humanity and it has to be dealt with
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: in that manner.
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: There are some funny details side by side here of
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: how much Trump is bending over backwards to meet Xi.
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: So I have it here in front of me.
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: Trump will actually be waiting for Xi Jinping on the tarmac,
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: which she did not do for him. whenever he visited
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: China earlier this year. Then there will be a flyover
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: by B2 and F22s and a meeting then between Xi's
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: wife and Melania Trump. None of that happened whenever Trump
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: visited Beijing. Xi was not waiting for him. There were
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: no flyover and there was no meeting of the first ladies.
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: And I mean, I know this all sounds like stupid,
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: but in Chinese culture in particular and their diplomatic protocol,
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: everything is reciprocity. And so they famously did this, I think,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: with Obama, where they made him use the back staircase
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: instead of the main staircase on Air Force One. They're
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: all subtle status games that have been happening in diplomacy.
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: Quite some time. But then why is Trump bending over back?
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: He needs them.
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: He really does. He needs to strike some sort of
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: a deal. What did we open our show up with?
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: Iowa and how much they're getting punished. Well, Chinese are
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: not stupid.
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: They know all of this.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: And so what they're doing is they're setting the tone
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: to try and to actually get as much as they
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: can out of Trump when he's in a vulnerable position.
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: The other thing.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: Which nobody genuinely would have predicted, both in the, remember,
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: the original meeting between Trump and Xi was supposed to happen,
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: I think, in April. It gets moved by a month
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: because of the disastrous Iran war. Well, what do they
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: need right now? They need China, who's providing all these
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: satellite imagery and all of this technology and all this
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: assistance to the Iranians. They're going to press them to stop.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: China says, OK, maybe. But if we do, we're going
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: to need something out of it. And also, let's point
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: to what the Trump administration actually gives us a view
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: into what they also see very important in this dinner.
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: And that comes back to AI. Put C4 up here
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: on the screen. They have invited now Elon, Sam Altman,
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: and other, quote, AI giants actually to the state dinner. And,
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: you know, this is actually pretty important because the state dinner,
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: where they do these state dinners, I've been in this room,
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: it is not a big room.
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: They're really, you can't fit that many people.
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: This is part of why Trump wants to build his
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: ballroom because he thinks they should be bigger.
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: I like the fact that they're small. I think that
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: it makes it. better but one of the people that
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: they're inviting.
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: Are all of these you know jensen wong elon sam
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: altman people who have tremendous business interests already existing in
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: china or who have you know people who have like
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: various thoughts and or roles in the ai race for
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: example like dario amadei sam altman um all of these
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: other figures who appear to have at least got an
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: invitation to in the interim for this state dinner.
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: Not Dario, but Sam Altman and some of the other.
• 55:04
  Speaker 5: Dario's invite got lost in the mail, I guess.
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: Well, it's not like she would want to see him.
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: He's like, Dario's the biggest China hawk that there is.
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: I just think that when you put it all together,
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: what fascinates me is about the role in which she
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: is coming to Washington. Like it is in a role
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: from his position, and I would agree with it, is
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: a position of strength, is that they have control over
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: the AI industry. We'll get to that here in a second.
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: They are willing to meet the United States on equal
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: and only equal terms.
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: In fact, you have the U.S. president rolling out the
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: red carpet, kind of, if you will. And the U.S.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: President is a much more vulnerable position with more immediate asks,
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: whereas their asks from the Trump administration are much more
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: high level. Trade, AI, and cars. The cars one is
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: the biggest one. That'll actually be, in my opinion, I mean,
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: it's the one I'd be the most excited about. to
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: be able to have their cars here in the United States.
• 55:58
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: But it actually would have tremendous impact in Michigan because
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: Detroit is freaking out.
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: This is their number one ask of Trump.
• 56:08
  Speaker 5: It's understandable.
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I get it.
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: They're dead.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, when I was in Spain, I was able
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: to ride in BYD because a lot of the Ubers
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: are BYDs. Very nice car, way cheaper than Tesla.
• 56:19
  Speaker 5: It's a no-brainer. I did not see a single Tesla
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: while I was there.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: It was all BYD. And they were very, very common.
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: A lot of the cars on the street were BYD. So, no,
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: it would be devastating to the American auto industry if
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: we just fully let them in. I was also remembering
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: just recently Trump was asked about China, in particular reports
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: that China was assisting Iran. with their satellite information to
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: help targeting, including some of the targeting in Jordan that
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: led to the deaths of American service members. And Trump just,
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: he kind of brushed it off. He's like, yeah, well,
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: I think they behaved reasonably well.
• 56:53
  Speaker 5: That's what he said.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: And I think he may have even done one of
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: those things. Yeah, we do some similar things as well.
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, what? the Ukrainians are pummeling Moscow by themselves. Like,
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: be real. It's like, what, they got space satellites?
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: But it's just an indication of the dynamics of that relationship,
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: where he's clearly in a mood to try to placate them,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: recognizes that, yeah, we threw the gauntlet down with the
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: trade war, with Liberation Day. China said, okay, fine, then
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: you don't get our rare earth minerals. And we blinked
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: pretty darn fast. So I don't think it's even a question.
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: that China has the most important trump card, which is
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: there is rare earth minerals. And so everything has to
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: be handled in a much more different and less aggressive
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: way than maybe it would have been if the situation
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: were slightly different. So in any case, I think I'm
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: encouraged by the AI talks. I think you're right that
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: this would maybe have not been a central focus up
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: till just a few months ago. I think the fact
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: that they are, you know, we'll see if anything more
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: comes out of this. Trump's trip to Beijing basically resulted
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: in like literally nothing came out of that whatsoever. So
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't get my hopes super high for a lot
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: of developments here. But obviously, this is the most important
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: relationship in the world right now.
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: So we have to watch it carefully.
• 58:08
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: And from what I'm looking at, you know, right now,
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: there is there's not going to be any real declaration
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: on anything.
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, look, it's general.
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: It's good for, you know, for these leaders to meet
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: and we get these small steps. But anybody expecting a
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: large breakthrough, it's just not really going to happen. I
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: did want to note this one thing, because it's just fascinating.
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: Let's put C6 up here on the screen, is one
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: of the most important people in the Chinese military establishment
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: has now been expelled from the party and alleged of
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: serious corruption.
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: This is from Reuters.
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: It's all been confirmed and put out by the CCP.
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: But from what I understand, he was one of the
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: last remaining members that was on this kind of committee meeting.
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: which would oversee the Chinese military commission. And by expelling
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: two of these top military leaders, it is genuinely pretty extraordinary.
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: He was the vice chair of the Central Military Commission
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: and second only to Xi Jinping in the military hierarchy,
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: along with the chief of staff for the commission's joint
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: staff department. So the equivalent of our, I guess, semi
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: equivalent of our chairman of the joint chiefs of staff,
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: the two men accused of being disloyal and dishonest to
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: the party, as well as abusing their power to help
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: others with promotions and improperly accepting gifts, enormous amounts of money.
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: They seriously violated political discipline and political rules. And their
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: cases are now referred to military prosecutors probably never to
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: be seen again.
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: And so what does that mean?
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: You know, I think in terms of the message that
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: they're trying to send, they don't do anything for, you know,
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: they don't do anything without wanting to send a message.
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: This is a message internally.
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: I obviously will understand that a lot less, but I
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: also think it's a message to Trump of I have control.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: I have control of our military, not just Trump to
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: the world, where his ability now to either purge or
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: remove so many members that had pre-existed either his relationship
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: or kind of a previous era of Chinese politics. The
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: full-blown cult of personality, almost Maoist kind of takeover of
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: the Chinese military establishment is fascinating from a lot of
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: the analysts that I have seen. Actually, what's interesting too
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: is one of the chief complaints around the CCP prior
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: to him coming to power was corruption. And so using
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: corruption there as the reason for taking out a lot.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: Of these people.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: Again, I think it's a message to the world and
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: You know, in the way that we look at this,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: it's kind of the same way. Whenever we remove top generals,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: you're like, wow, it's a big deal, right? It's like
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: whenever you prosecute these people. And yeah, I mean, there's
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: not a ton to say because we don't know it
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: a lot and we never really will know a lot
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: of these things. But this is the second time, actually,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: that we've covered something like this. And I saw an
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: image where one of the last people that remains there
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: is actually somebody I did a monologue about, one of
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: the most fascinating people in modern politics. chinese politics who
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: really believes in this clash of civilizations between the u.s
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: and china and this kind of fascinating like technological communism
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: and why it's the best system uh for what it
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: is and so the fact that she remains at the
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: top and in total control along with some of the
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: people there we can see the ideology that they seem
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: to believe and what the clash and all of that
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: looks like yeah it is very fascinating let's get to
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: media