Latest / The Infographics Show Podcast / Israel vs Iran: From Covert Ties to Open Conflict

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Israel vs Iran: From Covert Ties to Open Conflict · The Infographics Show Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: You know, you look at some global conflicts and they
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: get boiled down to a simple label, maybe a graphic,
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  Speaker 1: a headline, but the reality is often far more complex,
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  Speaker 1: like a tangled knot that the harder you pull, the
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  Speaker 1: tighter it gets. And sometimes those simple labels like calling
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  Speaker 1: something a cold war, just don't capture the full, messy
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  Speaker 1: layered reality.
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  Speaker 2: No, they really don't.
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  Speaker 1: That's where we're going beyond infographics today, to look past
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  Speaker 1: the simple charts and headlines and dive into the real,
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  Speaker 1: deeper currents of a relationship that's often misunderstood.
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  Speaker 2: Absolutely, and when you look at the long standing rivalry
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  Speaker 2: between Iran and Israel, cold war is the term often used,
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  Speaker 2: but as we're going to explore today, drawing on the
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  Speaker 2: material we've been diving into, especially given the intensity of
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  Speaker 2: recent events, that label might be evolving, or maybe it
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  Speaker 2: was never quite adequate to describe something far more unique
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  Speaker 2: and frankly volatile.
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  Speaker 1: Precisely, our mission in this deep dive is to take
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  Speaker 1: what we've been learning, pulling from the historical context, examining
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  Speaker 1: specific actions, digging into the underlying strategies, and really unpack
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  Speaker 1: it for you.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, get past the surface level.
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  Speaker 1: We want to get past the surface narratives and understand
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  Speaker 1: the layers, the surprising connections, and what this incredibly complex
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  Speaker 1: relationship truly means for the region and well beyond.
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  Speaker 2: Think of this as getting the inside scoop those crucial,
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: sometimes astonishing details and insights that you just won't find
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  Speaker 2: in a simple graphic or quick news brief. It's information
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  Speaker 2: tailored just for you to help you become genuinely well
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  Speaker 2: informed on a critical dynamic global flash point.
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  Speaker 1: And speaking of astonishing details, it's almost unbelievable to think
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  Speaker 1: that these two countries who are such bitter enemies today
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  Speaker 1: were once not that long ago, the grand scheme of
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  Speaker 1: things discreete partners. We're going to trace that journey, exploring
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  Speaker 1: the critical moments and shifting ideologies that brought them from
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  Speaker 1: quite cooperation to open confrontation. Quite a story, and of
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  Speaker 1: course we absolutely have to address the recent unprecedented direct
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  Speaker 1: exchanges we saw in twenty twenty four that really brought
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  Speaker 1: this rivalry out of the shadows and added a whole
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  Speaker 1: new dangerous dynamic.
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  Speaker 2: Definitely, it is truly a history filled with unexpected turns
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  Speaker 2: and paradoxes.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, let's unpack this history because it really is key
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  Speaker 1: to understanding where things stand today. The relationship between Iran
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  Speaker 1: and Israel now is defined by animosity, proxy conflicts, and
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  Speaker 1: direct threats. But rewind the clock, yeah, to before nineteen
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  Speaker 1: seventy nine, and you're looking at a completely different picture.
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  Speaker 2: It's fascinating really. After Israel was established in nineteen forty eight,
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  Speaker 2: most Muslim majority countries in the region just refused to
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  Speaker 2: recognize it. But Iran under the Shah Mohammed Rezaplavi was
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  Speaker 2: a big exception. Now, they didn't grant full official Dajur
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  Speaker 2: recognition initially, but they established a very close, very discreete
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  Speaker 2: and highly pragmatic relationship.
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  Speaker 1: Rag Manic. So what was the foundation of that seemingly
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  Speaker 1: unlikely partnership, What was driving it?
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  Speaker 2: Well, it was fundamentally rooted and shared strategic concerns and
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  Speaker 2: perceived threats. Both countries had strained or openly hostile relationships
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  Speaker 2: with many of the major Arab states at the time.
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  Speaker 1: The Pan Arabism movement was strong.
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  Speaker 2: Then, exactly, and under the Shah, Iran was firmly Western aligned,
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  Speaker 2: you know, a key pillar of US policy in the
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  Speaker 2: Middle East during the Cold War. Israel itself heavily dependent
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  Speaker 2: on US support saw a natural albeit quiet partner in
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  Speaker 2: a non Arab pro Western state on the periphery of
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  Speaker 2: the Arab world.
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  Speaker 1: This sounds like it fits into Israel's strategic thinking back then,
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  Speaker 1: something called the periphery doctrine.
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  Speaker 2: Precisely, that's exactly it. Starting in the nineteen fifties and
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  Speaker 2: going through the sixties, Israel actively pursued this strategy, the
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  Speaker 2: periphery doctrine. The whole idea was to build alliances with
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  Speaker 2: non Arab states in the region that were either hostile
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  Speaker 2: towards or at least deeply wary of that rising tide
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  Speaker 2: of pan Arab nationalism led by figures like Egypt's Gamal
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  Speaker 2: abdel Nasser. Iran, along with Turkey and Ethiopia became central
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  Speaker 2: partners in this, and the insights we've gathered from declassified
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  Speaker 2: materials really confirmed this strategic alignment. They highlight common ground
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  Speaker 2: like shared grievances with Arab neighbors, a mutual fear of
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  Speaker 2: Arab power growing too, strong, resentment of Soviet support for their.
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  Speaker 1: Enemies, which was a big factor back then.
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  Speaker 2: Huge plus alignment with the United States, and the strategic
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  Speaker 2: importance of bordering vital waterways. All these factors pushed them together.
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  Speaker 1: So this wasn't just like a theoretical thing. There were
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  Speaker 1: actual concrete actions taken to build this partnership.
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  Speaker 2: Oh. Absolutely. A really pivotal moment was a secret meeting
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  Speaker 2: back in nineteen fifty eight. It involved Israel, Turkey, and
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  Speaker 2: then Iran joined in. This laid the groundwork for a
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  Speaker 2: pact sometimes called.
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  Speaker 1: The Trident triedent Okay.
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  Speaker 2: And this relationship wasn't just diplomatic window dressing. It involved
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  Speaker 2: significant intelligence sharing. You had Masad, Israel's agency, and Savak,
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  Speaker 2: the Shaw's powerful and often feared intelligence organization, collaborating closely
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  Speaker 2: on regional threats, internal security stuff.
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  Speaker 1: Wow, Masad and Savak working together.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. And there was also robust economic cooperation and crucially
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  Speaker 2: a significant arms trade.
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  Speaker 1: Arms trade. Israel was selling arms to Iran back then.
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  Speaker 1: That just seems incredible looking at it now.
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  Speaker 2: They were consistently, starting in the late nineteen fifties and
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  Speaker 2: right through the Shaw's rule. This trade was actually a
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  Speaker 2: major factor in the early growth and development of Israel's
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  Speaker 2: own defense industries, which were just getting started.
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  Speaker 1: Huh. How did that work?
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  Speaker 2: Well? Often it operated as a kind of barter system.
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  Speaker 2: Uron obviously a major oil producer, supplied much needed crude
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  Speaker 2: oil to Israel in exchange for Israeli arms, spare parts,
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  Speaker 2: technical assistance, and.
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  Speaker 1: The military support went beyond just selling weapons you mentioned
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  Speaker 1: it did.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Israel provided military advisors, technical experts, training. They were
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  Speaker 2: actively aiding the development of Iran's own military industrial complex,
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  Speaker 2: helping them build up their domestic defense capabilities, improve military readiness.
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  Speaker 1: And on the economic front, beyond the oil for arms trade,
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  Speaker 1: what else was going on?
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  Speaker 2: Well, oil was massive, just huge. Iran became a critical
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  Speaker 2: supplier of crude oil to Israel, especially after the nineteen
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  Speaker 2: sixty seven Six Day War, when many Arab nations imposed
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  Speaker 2: oil boycotts on countries seen as backing Israel.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, so that boycott made Iran even more.
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  Speaker 2: Important, critically important. And then after Israel withdrew from the
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  Speaker 2: Sinai oil fields following the Sinai the Second Agreements with
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  Speaker 2: Egypt in nineteen seventy five, Iran became Israel's chief source
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  Speaker 2: of oil, supplying something like a staggering seventy percent of
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  Speaker 2: Israel's needs right up until the Shaw Fell in seventy nine. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: and in return, Israel offered advanced agricultural expertise, technology. Israeli
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  Speaker 2: companies were involved in major infrastructure projects across Iran, building,
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  Speaker 2: irrigation systems, ports, things like that.
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  Speaker 1: So it was a really deep, multifaceted relationship way beyond
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  Speaker 1: just high level strategy. It was practical day to day
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  Speaker 1: economic and security cooperation exactly.
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  Speaker 2: And there were other fascinating dimensions too. Some documents suggest
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  Speaker 2: Israel was interested in helping Iran support Kurdish separatist groups.
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  Speaker 1: In Iraq against Addam Hussein, right.
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  Speaker 2: Seeing Saddam's regime as a shared adversary, and Iran in
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  Speaker 2: turn apparently provided Masad with valuable intelligence on the Iraqi military. Plus,
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  Speaker 2: you had Israel deeply concerned about the welfare and security
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  Speaker 2: of the roughly ninety thousand Jews living in Iran at
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  Speaker 2: the time, so the relationship was seen as a way
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  Speaker 2: to help ensure their protection. These ties were far more
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  Speaker 2: tangled and complex than just a simple strategic alignment.
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  Speaker 1: And here's where it gets really interesting, and the entire
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  Speaker 1: dynamic just flips on its head dramatically. Nineteen seventy nine,
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  Speaker 1: the Islamic Revolution.
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  Speaker 2: This was the fundamental earth shattering break, the overthrow of
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  Speaker 2: the Shas monarchy. The establishment of the Islamic Republic under
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: Iotola Komani. It didn't just change Iran's government, It radically
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  Speaker 2: transformed its entire foreign policy and its whole view of Israel.
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  Speaker 1: It wasn't just a political shift, was it. It felt
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  Speaker 1: much deeper.
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  Speaker 2: Ideological, fundamentally ideological. The new Islamic regime viewed Israel not
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  Speaker 2: just as a political adversary or a state with conflicting interests,
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  Speaker 2: but as an illegitimate entity, a colonial implant, a tool
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  Speaker 2: of Western imperialism, specifically the United States. The Great Satan
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  Speaker 2: Comane's rhetoric wasn't just anti Israel, it was explicitly and
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  Speaker 2: virulently anti Zionist. This anti Israel sentiment became a core,
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  Speaker 2: non negotiable tenet of the Islamic Republic's identity, its revolutionary ideology,
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  Speaker 2: its whole discourse, both at home and international.
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  Speaker 1: And they immediately followed that up with concrete symbolic actions. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: no messing.
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  Speaker 2: Around they did. All diplomatic ties with Israel were immediately
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  Speaker 2: and completely severed. Israeli personnel kicked out, and in a
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  Speaker 2: move that sent an unmistakable signal across the region and
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  Speaker 2: the world, the Israeli embassy building in Tehran was dramatically
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  Speaker 2: handed over to the Palestine Liberation Organization the PLO WOW.
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  Speaker 1: That certainly made their intentions crystal.
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  Speaker 2: Clear, absolutely clear, And from that point on, starting in
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  Speaker 2: the early nineteen eighties and really accelerating through the nineties,
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  Speaker 2: Iran actively began positioning itself as Israel's biggest, most implacable
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  Speaker 2: enemy in the region. They rapidly emerged as a key
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  Speaker 2: state sponsor of militant groups opposed to Israel. Most notably,
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  Speaker 2: they played a foundational role in establishing and nurturing Hesbola
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  Speaker 2: in Lebanon.
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  Speaker 1: A huge factor still today, and.
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  Speaker 2: Later became a primary backer of Hamas in the Palestinian territories.
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  Speaker 1: And this support wasn't just like rhetorical or political, It
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  Speaker 1: was material, boots on the ground kind of stuff.
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  Speaker 2: Oh far from just rhetoric. This support has been comprehensive
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  Speaker 2: and substantial. It includes extensive military training, significant financial aid,
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  Speaker 2: and the direct provision of weapons and military technology. Iran
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  Speaker 2: was and still is actively enabling and equipping groups who
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  Speaker 2: stated explicit aim is confrontation with Israel up to and
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  Speaker 2: including its destruction.
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  Speaker 1: But here's another one of those incredible twists in this story.
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  Speaker 1: Even after becoming these bitter public enemies locked in this
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  Speaker 1: ideological battle, secret ties persisted during the brutal Iran Iraq
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  Speaker 1: War throughout the nineteen eighties.
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  Speaker 2: This is maybe one of the most surprising and counterintuitive
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  Speaker 2: parts of the whole relationship. Despite the radical public animosity
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  Speaker 2: driven by the new regime's ideology, these covert links and interactions,
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  Speaker 2: they just kept going.
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  Speaker 1: Why on earth would Israel maintain any contact, let alone
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  Speaker 1: provide assistance to a regime that was publicly calling for
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  Speaker 1: its destruction. It seems mad well.
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  Speaker 2: From Israel's perspective at the time, and this is key.
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  Speaker 2: At the time, Tunamusain's Iraq was seen as the greater,
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  Speaker 2: more immediate, and more conventional military threat compared to Coomane's Iran.
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  Speaker 2: We've seen insights from a declassified CIA document from nineteen
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  Speaker 2: eighty five that specifically noted Israel's quote relatively benign attitude
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  Speaker 2: towards the Sales is influenced by the same strategic concerns
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  Speaker 2: that impelled Israel to forge links to Iran in the
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  Speaker 2: late nineteen fifties.
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  Speaker 1: So the old thinking hadn't entirely died exactly.
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  Speaker 2: The calculation was that these sales, even to an ideological enemy,
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  Speaker 2: would help prolong the Iran Iraq conflict and thereby keep
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  Speaker 2: Baghdad's vastly enlarged military tied down along Iraq's eastern border.
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  Speaker 2: It was a strategic play, basically, keep your most powerful
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  Speaker 2: conventional adversary bogged down elsewhere.
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  Speaker 1: And this is what led to those covert arms transfers
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  Speaker 1: that blew up publicly in the Iran Contra affair.
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  Speaker 2: Exactly. Iran Contra, which came to lay in eighty six,
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  Speaker 2: revealed that Israeli intermediaries had facilitated these secret shipments of
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  Speaker 2: US arms to Iran. The motives behind it were incredibly tangled.
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  Speaker 2: A real web included attempts by the US to get
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  Speaker 2: American hostages released by Hezbullah in Lebanon, a group Iran supported,
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  Speaker 2: remember vere and controversially using the mun from the arms
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  Speaker 2: sales to fund the anti communist Contra rebels down in Nicaragua.
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  Speaker 2: Israel was kind of caught in the middle facilitating these deals.
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  Speaker 1: The irony is just astounding. Publicly condemning each other is
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  Speaker 1: the ultimate evil. Secretly trading arms and back.
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  Speaker 2: Channels, it really is, and the documents reveal even deeper
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  Speaker 2: layers of strategic irony. That same nineteen eighty five CIA
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  Speaker 2: doc noted Israel's somewhat hopeful belief despite the US saying
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  Speaker 2: otherwise pretty clearly and repeatedly that US strategic interests in
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  Speaker 2: the golf would lead Washington inexorably to mend fences with Iran.
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  Speaker 2: Israel actually saw itself potentially as the key to promoting
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  Speaker 2: its interests in the golf by using its covert ties
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  Speaker 2: to maybe facilitate a rapprochement between Washington and Tehran.
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  Speaker 1: So Israel in the mid eighties thought it could play
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  Speaker 1: matchmaker between the US and the Islamic Republic. That is
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  Speaker 1: genuinely hard to fathom from today's perspective.
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  Speaker 2: It is the document even mentioned Israel was looking into
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  Speaker 2: possibly buying oil from Iran. Again if US Iran ties normally.
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  Speaker 2: It just shows a strategic calculation that seems almost alien now,
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  Speaker 2: a continuation of that pragmatic periphery doctrine thinking even within
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  Speaker 2: this new incredibly hostile environment.
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  Speaker 1: And these sales had to be kept extremely quiet, yeah, right,
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  Speaker 1: even from their closest ally the US.
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  Speaker 2: Oh Yes, Israel was quote acutely aware of the US
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  Speaker 2: desire to punish the Komane regime and wants to avoid
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  Speaker 2: angering its patron They were very careful limiting the nature
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  Speaker 2: and quantity of the arms sold, no big items like
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  Speaker 2: tanks or aircraft. They wanted to maintain a degree of
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: plausible deniability if the secret ever leaked.
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  Speaker 1: So when did these strategic shadows finally dissipate? When did
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  Speaker 1: the public animosity just completely override any lingering pragmatic ties.
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  Speaker 2: That shift really solidified in the nineteen nineties. The primary
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  Speaker 2: overriding factor Iran's burgeoning nuclear program. Oh Israel began to
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  Speaker 2: view Iran's stated ambitions and its developing capabilities not just
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  Speaker 2: as a regional threat, but as an existential threat to
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  Speaker 2: its very survival. This perception fundamental altered the strategic calculus.
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  Speaker 2: It just slammed the door shut on any kind of
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  Speaker 2: pragmatic covert cooperation.
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  Speaker 1: And simultaneously, Iran doubled down on its proxy strategy absolutely.
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  Speaker 2: With the nuclear program looming in the background, Iran expanded
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  Speaker 2: and deepened its support for anti Israel entities across the region,
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  Speaker 2: has Bolamas and increasingly groups like the Huthis and Yemen.
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  Speaker 2: Various militias in Iraq and Syria. This built out what
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: the Islamic Republic explicitly calls its axis of resistance, which brings.
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  Speaker 1: Us much closer to today the twenty twenties, where this rivalry
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  Speaker 1: is escalated into something far more intense than just a
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  Speaker 1: traditional Cold war.
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  Speaker 2: It really has. By the twenty twenties, it had truly
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: escalated into a full blown shadow war fought across multiple domains.
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  Speaker 2: We're talking drone attacks, sophisticated cyber warfare operations, maritime sabotage, targeting, shipping,
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  Speaker 2: kinetic actions carried out by proxies.
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  Speaker 1: A constant simmering conflict exactly.
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  Speaker 2: And you saw Iran rapidly increasing its regional influence, establishing
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: a presence through its proxies in Ira, Rock, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen,
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  Speaker 2: effectively creating this land bridge or crescent of influence. Meanwhile,
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: Israel was deepening cooperation with Gulf states, especially through the
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: Abraham Acres, and conducting frequent, mostly unacknowledged military operations aimed
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: at limiting Iranian entrenchment and capabilities, particularly near its borders
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  Speaker 2: in Syria and Lebanon.
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  Speaker 1: And then twenty twenty four brought it all crashing into
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  Speaker 1: the open in a way we just hadn't seen before.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, the ongoing conflict in Gaza after the October seventh
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  Speaker 2: attacks and the subsequent explosion of regional tensions, it just
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: significantly raised the temperature hugely. This culminated in those unprecedented
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: direct missile and drone exchanges between Iran and Israel in
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  Speaker 2: April twenty twenty four that brought the confrontation dangerously close
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  Speaker 2: to open conventional warfare for the very first time.
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  Speaker 1: It's worth noting, isn't it that even now, analyzes of
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: the situation differ quite a bit. We've seen assessments suggesting
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Israel strikes could fundamentally change Middle East security dynamics. Some
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: analyzes even pointed spacelatively towards a potential shift to full
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: scale war, possibly around dates like say June fifteen, twenty
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: twenty five.
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  Speaker 2: Right those projections were out there.
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  Speaker 1: Yet the actual major public direct exchanges happened back in
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  Speaker 1: April twenty twenty four. It just highlights how dynamic and
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: uncertain assessments of this conflict are, even among those settying it.
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  Speaker 2: Closely precisely, this isn't a static, predictable situation at all.
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  Speaker 2: How it's understood, how it's analyzed, how it's projected into
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: the future. It's constantly evolving based on events and frankly
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: differing interpretations of intentions and capabilities. It's a living, breathing,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: and incredibly dangerous rivalry.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: So, moving beyond the history and the headline grabbing direct attacks,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: what are the actual tools and strategies Iran primarily uses
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: in this rivalry today. It's clearly not just about lining
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: up conventional armies, is it?
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  Speaker 2: No far from it. Iran's core strategic approach involves the
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: deliberate cultivation and support of this vast network of influence
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: across the region, what they explicitly call the Acts of Resistance.
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: This network is specifically built and oriented to challenge and
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: act against Israel and also US influence in.
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  Speaker 1: A central Maybe the most prominent component of that access
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: today is Hamas.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, drawing on insights we've gathered, Iran has been Hamas's
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: primary strategic supporter since twenty fourteen, and this isn't passive support.
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  Speaker 2: It's comprehensive. It includes providing significant military equipment, offering advanced
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: training to their fighters, and supplying substantial financial aid. We've
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: seen estimates suggesting this amounts to hundreds of millions of
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: dollars directed towards both Hamas's political leadership and its military wing,
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: the Cussom Brigades.
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  Speaker 1: And Haw's leaders have acknowledged this.
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  Speaker 2: Public Oh yes, senior Hamas figures themselves have publicly acknowledged
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: and thanked Tehran for supplying them with the weapons necessary
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  Speaker 2: to strike deep inside Israel, like rockets and other capabilities.
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  Speaker 1: And what have we learned about the depth of this
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: relationship from looking at things like capture documents? This is
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: where we really get to go beyond infographics to see
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: the reality.
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  Speaker 2: This is where it gets really insightful. Yeah, documents captured
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: during operations in Goz that have offered a rare glimpse
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: into the true extent of Iranian penetration and influence within Hamas.
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  Speaker 2: It's not just about sending cash and weapons, you see, okay,
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: Iran funds civilian, educational, even cultural initiatives link to Hamas.
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  Speaker 2: The strategic aim behind this multi layered support seems crystal clear.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: Gain a deep foothold within the organization and the society
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: it governs. This allows Iran to significantly influence Hamas's decision
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: making through the leverage of financial control and weapon procurement.
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  Speaker 1: That financial leverage must be immense, a real choke point.
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  Speaker 1: Potentially it is.
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  Speaker 2: And the documents reveal specific, granular details about the money flow,
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: showing the operational side of the support. We've seen instances
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: detailing financial struggles within the Hamas leadership itself, yeah, with
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: notes about Iran reportedly stopping or delaying payments for months
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: at a time, causing internal problems. There are specific figures mentioned,
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: like fifty eight million dollars received in one instance, with
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: meticulous details on how it was allocated, twenty seven point
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: five million dollars sent to other entities or expenses, thirty
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: point five million dollars allocated internally within Hamas structures.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Well, they track it closely, very closely.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: One calculation we reviewed suggests a total of sixty eight
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: million dollars was received, including funds channeled from someone referred
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: to only as Hajjramedon. Intriguingly, the document notes this specific
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: amount caused a serious problem, though the exact nature of
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: that problem or who Hajjramedon is well, that isn't fully
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: clear from the material. It leaves a bit of a mystery,
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: but it highlights the complexity of these financial channels. There's
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: even a small, mundane looking receipt showing a transaction for
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: just fifteen hundred and fifty dollars USD via a currency exchange,
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: just illustrating the ground level flow of funds.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: These specific financial details really bring the operational reality to
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: life in a way a general statement about funding never could.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: It's not just abstract millions they do.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: They show the direct, tangible impact. And a document from
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty two reveals a more strategic, forward looking financial commitment.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: Iran apparently approved a minimum budget of seven million dollars
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: per month month specifically earmarked for hamas's preparation for future
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: confrontations with Israel, and HAMAS leaders, knowing this lifeline existed,
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: were actively requesting advanced payments. It just further illustrates their
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: dependence in Iran's central role in funding their strategic planning
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: and future actions.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: So it's not just reacting to current events, it's a
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: deliberate funded investment in future capabilities and conflict precisely.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: And another fascinating document from twenty nineteen shows Iran offering
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: scholarships for HAMAS members to study specific degree programs in Iran.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: What kind of programs.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: These weren't generic studies. They included fields directly relevant to
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: strategic and operational needs, computer engineering, programming, political science, special
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: naval forces training, even Persian studies.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: Building human capital for the acxis.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: Exactly treates a clear long term investment in developing the
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: human capital, the technical expertise, and importantly, the ideological alignment
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: of cadres within the axis Beyond Hamas.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Does Iran cultivate and support other groups in Gaza itself?
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: Is it just Hamas?
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: No, It's part of building this multi layered resistance axis.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: Iran has actively worked to establish and fund additional smaller
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: Islamist organizations within the Gaza strip. This seems to serve
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: a twofold objective Okay, what are those? One is to
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: gain additional points of leverage over Hamas's decisions by creating
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: other entities that are directly loyal and subordinate to Iran's authority.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: They can be activated or incentivized within the broader axis framework,
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: potentially pressuring Hamas.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: And the second objective.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: To promote its specific revolutionary Shia ideology and influence within
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: a predominantly Sunni society like Gaza. They're actively seeking to
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: shape the religious and social landscape, not just the military one.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: Interesting any examples, yeah.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: For instance, after Operation Protective Edge back in twenty fourteen,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Iran initiated the establishment of the Jerusalem Liberation Brigades. Documents
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: show the leadership of this group making direct requests for
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: significant funding no less than one million dollars initially to
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: get started and a proposed monthly budget around fifty thousand
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: dollars for what purpose, specifically for planning and executing what
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: they called high quality operations explicitly aimed at destabilizing Israel.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: That leaves absolutely no ambiguity about their goals. So Iran
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: is intentionally cultivating multiple layers of influence, loyalty, and operational
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: capability right there on Israel's border exactly.
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: It's a deliberate long term strategy to build a multi
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: pronged complex threat from Gaza, which of course complements the
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: major threat post by Hesbola up in Lebanon.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: This conflict isn't confined to traditional military or even proxy
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: actions on the ground. The digital realm cyberspace has become
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: a major frontline too, hasn't it.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: Increasingly so, cyber operations are a key and rap rapidly
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: evolving tool. In this rivalry, We've seen a notable shift
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: since around twenty twenty, with Iranian linked cyber activities showing
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: an explicit and intensified focus targeting Israel.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: What kind of targets are these groups going after? Is
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: it just government sites?
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: No, It's broader and potentially more disruptive than that. Iranian
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: linked groups cybersecurity firms track them under names like APT
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: thirty five, which is also known as Charming Kitten, Muddy Water,
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: and cyber av Thriners. They've launched persistent campaigns targeting critical
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: infrastructure like what. This has included attempted or successful attacks
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: on things like water treatment facilities, healthcare organizations, industrial control systems,
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: the systems that run power plants or factories.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: That sounds incredibly dangerous, it is.
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: They've also been involved in breaches of surveillance camera systems
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: and conducting detailed reconnaissance activities on sensitive networks like public
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: transportation systems, gathering intelligence for potential future disruption, and.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Is Israel engaging in the cyber domain as well is
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: two way street.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: Well, Israel, like most states, doesn't formally acknowledge conducting offensive
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: cyber operations that's standard practice, But there have been several
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: highly disruptive incidents inside Iran that have been widely attributed
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: to Israeli state linked actors by cybersecurity experts and intelligence
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: analysts such as These incidents have impacted critical Iranian infrastructure.
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: Disruptions to Iran's national fuel distribution systems remember when gasoline
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: sales were paralyzed for a period, Disruptions to railway networks,
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: attacks on various industrial sites, sometimes reportedly causing physical damage.
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: So yes, it appears to be very much a two
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: way street in the cyber domain.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Are there other actors involved in this digital conflict besides
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Iran and Israel directly?
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, the online space is crowded. You have various
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: state and non state actors jumping in. We've seen independent
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: or ideologically aligned groups like one called Mysterious Team Bangladesh
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: issuing public warnings to neighboring countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia,
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: threatening cyber attacks on their national infrastructure if they're perceived
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: as helping Israel. Other groups like Arabian Ghosts have claimed
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: responsibility for shutting down Israeli radio stations. Various hacking groups
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: make threats and claims against Israeli organizations, including one group
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: that claimed they temporarily took down the public facing website
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: of Israel's Masad intelligence agency.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: So it's a free for all to some extent, it's.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: A constant, multifaceted digital conflict happening in parallel to the
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: kinetic and proxy actions, a persistent low level, but occasionally
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: high impact aspect of the overall conflict that adds yet
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: another layer of complexity and vulnerability for everyone involved.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: Moving from the tools and proxies to the deeper motivations,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: let's talk about the driving force behind Iran's strategy. It's
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: clear from what we've discussed that this isn't just about
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: traditional state interests or real politic is it? There's something
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: else going on?
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: Not at all. This is where ideology becomes absolutely central.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: It provides the engine really for Iran's long term strategy.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: The Islamic Republic's approach is heavily driven by a coherent
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: religious and political theory. Well it's rooted in a novel
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: interpretation of Shia dogma, and it gives an outsized guiding
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: role to the clergy in directing the state and its
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: revolutionary actions.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: They see themselves as operating on a kind of world
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: historical stage.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: So fair absolutely, the Islamic Republic views itself not just
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: as a regional player, but as a major, and in
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: some interpretations, the key player in unfolding global history, guided
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: by its specific revolutionary ideology and perceived religious mandate. This
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: gives their actions a kind of messianic or acetological dimension
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: that's often hard for purely secular states to fully grasp
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: or even deter effectively.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: And how does this potent ideology translate into a concrete,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: practical political weapon directed against Israel.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: Well, their principle and arguably most effective political weapon is
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: the hijacking and co option of the Palestinian cause.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Is that work?
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: It works on multiple levels. Ideologically, it allows them to
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: fundamentally contest Israel's very right to exist as a Jewish state,
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: framing the conflict in terms of liberation, resistance against occupation,
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: and injustice, themes that resonate with certain global audiences. Operationally,
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: they co opt militant Palestinian factions, turning them into instruments, proxies,
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: and political tools for advancing Iran's broader regional agenda, which
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: isn't always identical to purely Palestinian aspirations, and strategically this
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: generates significant ideological capital for Iran on the global stage,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: particularly in the West, where segments of the left are
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: often highly critical of Israel and US foreign policy and
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: may sympathize strongly with the Palestinian movement, So it acts.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: As a vector for applying broader pressure.
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: Politically, exactly, it provides Iran with a consistent platform and
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: justification for pushing for international isolation and sanctions against Israel.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: There's an interesting historical resonance here too. The analogy has
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: been drawn to how the Soviet Union's KGB framed the
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: United States as an imperialist superpower that was being legitimately
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: challenged by national liberation movements across the Third World during
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: the Cold War. Some observers interpret events like the October
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: seventh attack, at least in part, as attempts by the
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: ACCESS to achieve a similar effect to portray Israel as
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: an oppressive colonial force being rightfully challenged by a legitimate
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: resistance movement, thereby shifting the global narrative and undermining Israel's
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: international standing.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: And this taps into deeper historical currents, doesn't it? Like
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: the Soviet Union's own intense antagonism towards Zionism.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: It really does, and that's a fascinating connection. The Soviet
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: Union famously broke diplomatic ties with Israel back in nineteen
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: sixty seven after the Six Day War, and within the
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Soviet system, especially within the KGB, there were what have
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: been described as anti Zionist obsessions. Yeah, they viewed Jews
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: within the Soviet Union and this sort of amorphous concept
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: of an international Zionist conspiracy as significant internal and external threats.
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: As late as the nineteen eighties, some top KGB officials
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: genuinely believed that quote virtually no major negative incidents took
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: place anywhere in the socialist countries of Europe without the
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: involvement of Zionists.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Wow, that's quite a worldview, it is.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: And the Soviet Union was also a driving force behind
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: that infamous nineteen seventy five UN General Assembly Resolution three
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: three seventy nine, the one that declared Zionism to be
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: a form of racism. That was largely seen as a
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: Soviet tactic to align with Arab states and demonize Israel internationally.
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: Iran's current ideological framing definitely leverages some of these historical
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: narratives and ideological frameworks finding resonance in certain global circles
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: decades later.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: So Iuran is playing a really long game here, drawing
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: on historical grievances and ideological narratives that extend far beyond
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: immediate regional politics.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: Precisely, it's part of a deep, ideologically driven and very
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: patient strategy that seeks to fundamentally alter the regional and
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: global order.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Okay, flipping to Israel side for a moment, Are there
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: specific vulnerabilities that this patient, ideologically driven strategy from Iran
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: seeks to exploit.
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: Yes. One key observation from the material we've reviewed is
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: Israel's domestic situation. Over the past year or more. We've
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: seen pretty significant internal political turmoil and deep societal schisms
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: within Israel.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: You mean the protests and debates.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: Exactly, Intense debates over the country's judicial system, the direction
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: of the war goals in Gaza, the question of elections,
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: highly contentious issues like the conscription of the ultra Orthodox population.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: All of this exposes deep, sometimes bitter divisions within Israeli
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: society and the.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: Strategic implication of that internal division. How does Iran see that?
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: Well? This internal weakness. These public schisms are perceived by
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: adversaries like Iran and its Axis as creating a political window,
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: a moment of heightened vulnerability that can potentially be exploited.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: How So, it suggests that Israel's internal cohesion, often seen
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: as a major source of strength, is under significant strain,
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: and this strain can potentially be leveraged to pursue the
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: axis's long term end goal, which some analysis describes quite
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: starkly as the collapse of the State of Israel through
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: sustained multi dimensional pressure.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: So the immediate objective of the Axis isn't necessarily a
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: conventional military victory or invasion something else.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: The immediate military goal, it seems, for the Axis of Resistance,
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: is primarily to militarily tie down Israel, keep its large
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: reserve forces mobilized for prolonged periods, stress its society and
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: economy with constant tension and conflict on multiple fronts, and
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: basically spread its military resources. Think a crucial aim of
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: this tie down strategy is to prevent Israel from launching
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: major attacks on the Axis elements beyond its immediate borders,
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: so in Syria or Lebanon, and absolutely crucially to prevent
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: any direct attacks on the Iranian homeland itself, which is
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: considered the central pillar, the heart of the axis.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: And this ties directly into the strong push we've seen
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: from the Axis for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, doesn't.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: It Absolutely a permanent ceasefire in Gaza is viewed by
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: Iran and the entire axis is a major strategic win.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: Why Because it would preserve Hamas as a vital functioning
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: component of that axis right there on Israel's porter like
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: keep them in play. It would maintain Iran's influence and
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: control over a key proxy, and critically, it would protect
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: Hesbola in Lebanon from being left exposed and alone as
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: Israel's primary adversary on a major northern front. If Gaza stops,
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: the pressure potentially shifts north.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: This sounds like a strategy that's less about brute force
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: and more about influencing the adversary's thinking and decision making,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: playing mind games almost.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: That brings us to a concept that seems highly relevant here,
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: reflexive control. It's a strategic concept often associated with Soviet
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: and Russian thinking about influencing an adversary's decision making process,
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: not by forcing them with overwhelming power, but but shaping
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: their perception of reality, their available options, or the likely
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: outcomes those options, making them choose the path you want
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: them to choose. Essentially, how does.
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: The access apply that against Israel and its allies, particularly
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: the US.
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: Well they exploit perceived vulnerabilities and fears. A prime example
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: is exploiting the United States's deep seated fear of a
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: wider regional war and Israel's own susceptibility to pressure from
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: its primary global backer. The US Gaza in this context
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: isn't just a piece of territory or a local conflict.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: It acts as a constant source of tension and strain
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: on the crucial US Israel relationship. Drawing on classawoitseean ideas
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: about centers of gravity, some analysis suggests that Israel's primary
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: center of gravity isn't just its own military but the
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: relationship with and support of its main protector, of the
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: United States. By keeping the Gaza conflict unresolved by generating
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: regional instability, the axis works to undermine and apply stress
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: to that vital relationship right at its root.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: So the conflict itself becomes a tool to put pressure
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: on the US Israel alliance.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: Yes, profisely and statements from figures like on Nozralla, the
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: leader of Hesbelah, when he talks about the victory of
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: blood over the sword.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: I remember that phrase that.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Can be interpreted as reflecting the strategic focus, the idea
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: that steadfastness, willingness to endure casualties, persistence, combined with information
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: operations and narrative warfare can ultimately outlast and defeat a
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: more powerful, technologically superior adversary by undermining their political will
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: and the will of their supporters.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: So the target isn't just military hardware.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: Right, The target isn't necessarily physical destruction of mass, the
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: bulk of an army or its equipment. It's achieving political
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: and psychological impact. It's about convincing the adversary and critically
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: their international backers that they cannot win, or that the
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: cost of continuing the conflict is simply too high, eroding
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: their resolve, forcing concessions potentially leading to collapse. Propaganda, disinformation,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: information Opso these are absolutely key tools in this approach.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: This feels like a fundamentally different approach to conflict than
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: traditional warfare. The strategy you will perhaps more than the
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: strategy of force exactly.
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: It's a fascinating contrast when you compare potential strategic approaches.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Israel has historically often favored approaches that could be seen
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: as forms of political warfare aimed at wearing down adversaries resources,
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: forcing their retrenchment, or maybe at times, particularly regarding Iran,
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: harboring hopes for regime change. There were even ideas floated
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: about a Persia Sovietica, hoping for a Soviet style internal
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: collapse of the Iranian regime under external pressure. But Iran's
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: current approach, especially through the Axis, seems much more ideologically
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: driven and centered on this concept of a long term
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: test of wills. Now, Iran does face significant economic challenges.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: Analysis shows relatively modest growth projected, like the IMF projecting
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: only three percent growth in twenty twenty three, and the
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: state faces domestic discontent, but the regime's strategy appears designed
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: to withstand this pressure while applying asymmetric pressure externally, and.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: The IERGC, the Revolutionary Guard Core, plays a huge role
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: in actually implementing this strategy, doesn't it. They're not just
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: a military force.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: Oh, absolutely central. The IRGC is incredibly powerful and influential
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: in Iran. They have a significant role in foreign policy,
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: and there are a massive presence as an economic actor
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: within the country. Oh so economically well, IRGC veterans often
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: gain preferential access to top government jobs, significant economic privileges
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: like discounted access to imports housing subsidies. They also control
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: the Beasiege Paramilitary Force, which is this vast ideologically loyal
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: volunteer militia used for internal security and extending influence both
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: inside and outside Iran. This powerful, ideologically committed organization is
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: absolutely central to designing and implementing Iran's external strategy, including
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: cultivating and supporting the access of resistance and pursuing goals
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: like regional influence and challenging Israel.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, given that the core aims feel almost existential for
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: both sides, Iran explicitly challenging Israel's right to exist in
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: Israel viewing Iran's potential nuclear weapons as an existential threat.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: Does traditional deterrence, even nuclear deterrence, function the usual way here?
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: This raises a really crucial and difficult question. Nuclear weapons,
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: often described as Israel's ultima ratio, the final argument, the
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: last resort, are primarily designed to deter existential military threats,
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: mainly from other states with large conventional armies or their
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: own nuclear capabilities. But can the threat of conventional military
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: retaliation or even the veiled threat of nuclear escalation effectively
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: deter a state like Iran that is waging a strategy
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: fundamentally based on political warfare, leveraging proxies operating in the shadows,
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: aiming for a long term outcome of political or societal
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: collapse rather than direct physical annihilation through conventional military means.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: The different kind of threat exactly.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: The nature of this conflict, being so fundamentally about ideology,
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: political will, and asysymmetric tools, really complicates traditional deterrence com significantly.
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: It's not clear that the old rules apply neatly here.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Let's broaden our view now and look at how this
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: conflict isn't just contained to Iran, Israel and the immediate proxies.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: How does it ripple out across the region and even globally?
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: What are the wider effects?
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this isn't a bilateral issue in a vacuum at all.
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: The tensions and the potential for escalation have significant regional implications,
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: inevitably drawing in other states and global powers. For instance,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: we can look at reactions from governments in Central Asia?
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: Okay, what kind of reactions have we seen from countries
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: like say Uzbekistan or Kyrgyzstan.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: Well, governments there have voiced clear concern about the military escalation,
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: particularly after those direct exchanges in twenty twenty four. They've
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: issued calls for de escalation. They've emphasized their desire for
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: neutrality and explicitly warned against the conflict widening further across
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: the Middle East, and practically practically their embassies in the
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: region took steps advising their citizens in potentially affected areas
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: to follow safety protocols, maintain communication with their diplomatic missions
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: the standard precautions.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: And how does public opinion in Central Asia align with
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: those government calls for neutrality. Are people there eager to
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: get involved?
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: No. Public sentiment seems to largely support that neutral stance.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: Surveys connected recently, for example, in May and June twenty
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: twenty five, have shown pretty limited public support for their
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: countries providing any kind of military ad to Iran across
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: the region. Interesting now, there are mixed levels of political
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: sympathy towards the different parties involved. Some surveys show slightly
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: higher levels of sympathy towards Iran in places like Kazakhstan
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: and Tajikistan compared to Azerbajan and Uzbekistan, but the overall
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: public consensus appears to favor their governments maintaining neutrality and
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: avoiding any military involvement in the Middle Eastern conflict.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: So Central Asian countries are primarily worried about the indirect
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: risks of this conflict.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: Spelling over yes, absolutely they face potentially significant indirect risks,
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: it's about the geopolitical, economic, and security fallout. A prolonged
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: escalating conflict could strain the region's capacity to handle potential
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: migration flows, destabilize volatile global energy prices, which obviously impact
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: their economies, and potentially exacerbate their own internal security challenges.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: So the public resistance to military involvement provides their governments
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: with strong domestic backing for their cautious neutral stance. Analysis
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: suggests recommendations for these governments include things like fortifying border security,
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: upgrading intelligence sharing, creating contingency plans for potential refugee movements,
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: and maintaining cautious balanced diplomacy, especially with major external players
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: involved in the region like Russia and China.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: We also saw broader international involvement, even if it was
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: limited during those direct exchanges back in April twenty twenty four,
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: didn't we It wasn't just Israel defending itself alone.
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: We did, and this highlights the wider concern. Absolutely. During
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: Iran's large scale aerial attack on Israel, several international units
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: were directly involved in defensive action, helping to intercept incoming
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: missiles and drones. This included significant participation from forces from
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: the United States, elements of their Army, Navy, Air Force,
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: CE Andtcom Command, also units from the United Kingdom's Armed
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: Forces and Royal Air Force. Critically, it also involved the
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: Jordanian Armed Forces and Royal Jordanian.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: Air Force Jordan playing a key role, and elements.
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: Of the French armed Forces, including their Navy and Air
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: and Space Force. This direct, albeit defensive, international participation really
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: underscores the level of global concern about escalation. It showed
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: a multilateral, though limited effort to manage the immediate crisis
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: and prevent a wider war at that specific, very tense moment.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: Looking ahead now, it feels like the outcome of this
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: escalated multidimensional rivalry is still very much up in the air.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: No one really knows where this is going.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, While some initial analysis following those direct exchanges suggested
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: Israel's response plus the international participation could fund the mentally
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: alter Middle East security dynamics, maybe establish new rules of
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: the game, the key question raised by many observers remains
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: will these events ultimately lead to a new, more stable
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: regional order or will these evolving dynamics simply yield a
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: more volable, more unpredictable situation. The path forward is incredibly unclear,
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: and the long term outcome remains highly uncertain. It's a
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: situation that just demands constant attention and very careful analysis.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: So bringing it all together, then, what does this deep
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: dive really reveal about understanding the rivalry between Iran and Israel.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: We've covered this wild historical shift from secret friends to
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: bitter enemies, looked at the unique tools like proxies and
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: cyber warfare, delved into the driving ideological engines, and examined
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: the broader ripple effects.
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: Well, I think it brings us right back to where
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: we started. This conflict truly defies easy, simple labels like
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: cold war. It just doesn't fit neatly. It's unique history
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: that unexpected partnership, the profound even existential state involved for
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: both sides, the heavy reliance on asymmetric tools like proxies,
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: cyber ops, political warfare, and those deep driving ideological routs
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: guiding Iran's actions. All of this makes it a confrontation
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: fought across multiple interconnected dimensions. At its heart, as we've discussed,
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: it seems to be fundamentally a test of wills fought
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: not just on battlefields, but in the digital realm, in
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: the financial system, and perhaps most importantly, in the minds
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: of decision makers and in the court of global opinion.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: So the key takeaway for you, our listener, if you're
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: trying to understand this conflict, is that you absolutely have
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: to look beyond the military actions and the daily headlines.
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: You need to see the underlying strategies of political warfare,
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: recognize the central motivating role of ideology for one of
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: the key players, Iran, and understand precisely how vulnerabilities internal
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: divisions within Israel, external fears in the US and elsewhere,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: are leveraged to achieve long term strategic goals, particularly by
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: Iran and its network of allies.
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: It's about appreciating the different ways conflict can be waged
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: in the twenty first century, and the diverse often non
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: conventional tools employed to achieve strategic ends that traditional military
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: force alone might not be able to.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: And to leave you with the thought borrowing from a
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: source we looked at it kind of reminds us that
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: people never believe in volcanoes until the lava actually overtakes.
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: Them, Applying that to this context, even though a full
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: scale conventional war hasn't erupted yet in the traditional sense,
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: the potential for a massive and fatal eruption of violence
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: is very real and present, simmering just beneath the surface. Yeah,
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: this conflict carries implications that would reach far beyond the
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: immediate readier, potentially impacting global stability, energy markets, international relations
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: in profound and unpredictable ways if it truly boils over.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: Thank you for joining us on this deep dive into
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: the material on the CONFLX relationship between Iran and Israel,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: going beyond infographics, We truly hope that unpacking these layers
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: has given you a clearer, more nuanced understand of this
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: incredibly important and frankly dangerous rivalry.
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: We really encourage you to reflect on what you've heard
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: today and perhaps seek out more information yourself to explore
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: the nuances and complexities we've only been able to touch upon.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: And if you found value in this deep dive, if
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: this helps you understand things a bit better, please consider
• 45:18
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• 45:21
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• 45:23
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• 45:26
  Speaker 1: complex global issues.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: We appreciate your support until the next deep dive