Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Congress Just Bought these 2 Stocks + Stock Market News 16 January 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Congress Just Bought these 2 Stocks + Stock Market News 16 January 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream, where stock markets are beautiful.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Stocks only ever go up and 2025 will be the best year of your life and, in all seriousness, I want to walk you through why.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Right now, in my humble opinion, is one of the greatest periods ever to be an investor, and I'll explain that to you.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I'll walk you through a bit of some of the key data points.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: I'll share my screen with you and, of course, you're super welcome to ask me questions.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: I put a poll out in there in the live chat as well.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Do answer that too.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: 10% of you are not planning to have your best year yet.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: You may need a shrink, you may need help.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: You may need subscription.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: You know prescription drugs, even subscription drugs.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Ok, let me walk you through a couple of things.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Zoom out for a moment.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: We've got 28 minutes till the market opens, so we can afford to do that.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Futures are looking bright and bushy out, bright and shiny, so don't worry about a thing.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: We'll get back to some of you guys asking about banks here.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Loving the scarf thing, the scarf thing, the Kramat, as the Germans say in my home country that I abandoned.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: This here is US money supply growth.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: What a more exciting chart you could find, I don't know, and it's going up.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Can you see that?
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: So they did a similar thing a bit more extremely during COVID, right?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: They kind of did that crazy amount of money printing.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Something like 30% of every US dollar out there was created since COVID, like some crazy number.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: So why am I showing you that?
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Because if you understand a little bit about economics a former economist here I apologize on behalf of the entire profession for just generally being wrong on most things, but there is something in it.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: If you print money, it starts to go to circulation and it starts creating asset bubbles, it starts creating inflation.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: It doesn't do that immediately.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: It takes a little bit of time, generally speaking, I don't know 12 months, 18 months, something like that.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: So if you remember that chart up here where they started really to pump money out in 2020, the peak of money printing was the beginning of 2021, early 2021.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: And then look on the NASDAQ here.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: So 2020, they started the money printing, and then the peak of money printing, as I said, was early 2021, right here, right there.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: That was the absolute peak of money being chapped out there, the craziest rate ever in the history.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: And what happened?
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Well, we got a little bit of a rally up here since they started a little bit of a rally, but actually what happened is that the real thing kicked in way way, way later.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: And when was that?
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: That was in 2023.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: So we're looking at 2022, 2023.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: We're looking at almost two years here.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: 18 months is generally the theory that it kicks in at, and therefore, as US money supply is growing again, of second quarter of 2024, that will translate into good things for us, people who own assets.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: What's an asset?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Stocks are assets.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Real estate is an asset, right?
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: All that kind of stuff, which therefore tends to go up.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: So that's positive, right.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of the big macro government doing its thing to pump the markets up, kind of thing.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: And then you want to understand this that since they started all that money printing remember the peak was here in 2021, that was the peak of money printing what happened?
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: The percentage of stocks that outperformed the index fell down to now, just about 22%.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: 22% of stocks outperform the index and therefore even I can do that maths 78% of stocks jumped.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean for you?
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Well, it means that if you buy the index.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: 78% of the stocks in there won't outperform Doesn't sound like the brightest move, does it?
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: And I do buy a little bit of NASDAQ index every single week, but I'm not saying it's a terrible idea.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: But certainly for the non-tech stocks, there is this big, big, big gap between those who don't perform the miseries and then those who do perform.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: So what does that therefore bring you to?
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: You probably want to buy the good stocks, right?
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, just like 90, 88 percent of you want to have the best year ever, which makes you a rational, sane human being who isn't on drugs or you know.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: So you're fairly happy in life.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: You've got some positive outlooks there.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: So therefore, you want to find those stocks.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: How do you find those stocks?
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm going to give you two little goodies here of how you can do that.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: One which is brand, shiny and new, and I'm very excited about it.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: In Trade Vision, which is the software that we build to give you access to the best data out there and make you as well informed as any of the buggers on Wall Street.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: We now have breakouts, and I often talk about breakouts, how I like to buy breakouts and how that's helping me make a lot of money.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: So we're putting breakouts in here.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Some of you already have access to that if you are one of the early users.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Otherwise, it's going to be coming rolling into your account in the next one or two or three days.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: So check out for that.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: On Trade Vision, and you actually get this as a free upgrade.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: By the way, I charge you for it If you're already a Trade Vision user or if you join Trade Vision today on a week's trial, you get seven days of free, no risk.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: You can cancel before we ever start charging you and you get access to the masterclass.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: It's down below.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: It's also completely free.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Felixrensselaercom get free.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Here's my electrolytes.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: If you're wondering whether I'm on the booze already this early in the day, no, I'm not.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: And if you put those two things together, I think it's going to tremendously help you, because thousands of you already told me that it is tremendously helpful, which is why I put it out there, because we want more.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: You're an early user.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: You don't have it yet.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Give us a day or two.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: We're kind of gradually rolling this out because it's safer that way and we want to make sure we test it.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Break out to my trade vision, says Lucas.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Well, you will be very, very happy in about a day or two.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: It's going to go into the email notifications as well.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: You'll be getting those every single day, and then it's going onto your chat and then we'll put some screeners in there as well, so you can see what's been happening the last couple of days as breakouts as well.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: So that'll be very, very cool.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Lucas says hope.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: So You're going to get it, my friend, don't worry, you won't be left out for too long.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Everybody will get it, except for Lucas.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Is RGTI a breakout here?
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: How many of you the 1900 here have watched the masterclass?
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Put a one in the chat if you've watched the masterclass already.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: If you haven't, let me know.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Some of you are getting a laggy stream here.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, I apologize for that.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: It's my hotel Wi-Fi.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Lots of ones here, hang on.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: What's going on here?
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Okay, we're back.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: We're briefly, briefly, offline.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: We're back, troy, I have not watched a master class.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Troy, my friend, it might be helpful.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Stream is freezing.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Okay, we seem to be.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: We seem to be back in action, for, hopefully.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: If not, do, let me know in the chat.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, lots of ones coming in here.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, all right.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: So let me tell you, then, the five reasons why I am bullish right here, right now.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Now, the first is and that gets better and better and better every single day, it seems.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Let me give you reason number one.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Reason number one is bank earnings are incredible.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, a little bit laggy here, our connection, right?
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Hopefully that will fix itself, because not much I can do about that from this end.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: We'll persevere and then we'll struggle on.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: So first reason is bank earnings are just incredible.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: We had JP Morgan out yesterday.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: They're making so much money they don't have to do with it.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: They're literally just giving it away to bankers.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: We've had Morgan Stanley, just incredible.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: We had JP Morgan out yesterday.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: They're making so much money they don't have to do with it.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: They're literally just giving it away to bankers.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: We've had Morgan Stanley just in.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: They're making so much money trading.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: They've never seen anything like it, which is tremendous.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: And why is that tremendous?
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Because it's supportive of the market.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Right, I need styling.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's actually a good idea, my friend, that's a very good idea.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Gordon is back.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Felix likes animals.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: I do.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: I love furry creatures, feathery creatures, even so.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: The second one is the 10-year yield is starting to relax a little bit, as is the US dollar, and I can show you that.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Second, because this is really important.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: This is kind of what's been kicking the market down.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: It's the US 10-year and it's coming down.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: It's at 4.66, which is much better than almost 5%, which is where we were.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: And then the dollar is also softening a little bit.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Just a little bit.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: That's all we need, just a little bit of that, and that's very, very helpful.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: So that's good stuff.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: That's reason number two, and that sounds a little abstract, I get that, but it's kind of important.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: It drives the market.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: And then what else?
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Tech earnings are coming very, very soon and should be tremendous.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Because there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic for tech earnings.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: They've got a lot of good stuff out there.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: The AI spend is ticking up, they're making more money from subscription revenues and so on, so I'm very bullish on the tech earnings as well.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: And what's the next thing?
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: I promised you five, didn't?
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: I?
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Let me give you number four trump, the good old donald.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: He's going to d-reg energy.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So we're going to get a lot more uh, drilling, drill, baby drill, and also crypto.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: So you're going to have two sectors here booming energy and then the crypto thing.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: And why is the crypto thing important?
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Well, because, okay, I'm in a place here right now and it's sort of secret where I am.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: You're very welcome to guess.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Actually, it's not that secret.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: If you watch me on Twitter, for example, you already know X.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: I should say this town is full of crypto bros who are all very well off, clearly judging by the Lamborghinis they drive, and therefore they spend more money, and therefore they buy houses and they invest in stocks and they just do stuff.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: They start companies and more companies and they just generate more money.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: So when people get wealthier, it's generally a good thing for the economy.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: They tend to spend some of it.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: So that's definitely very, very good.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: And did I have a fifth?
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: I can't remember what the fifth one was.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: The fifth one was no, seriously, tax cuts I think that would really be the big one here tax cuts and and this is very, very important cuts to government spending, because you people always think if we cut government spending, it's terrible for the economy.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Most government spending, it's terrible for the economy.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Most government spending is kind of wasted.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: If the government spends a dollar, the speed at which that dollar goes through the economy is very, very slow because they're very inefficient.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: They spend it on useless stuff mostly, whereas if a private company spends money, that money goes to their supplier and their staff and those suppliers and their staff and it just immediately trickles out and it gets spent again and again and again.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: So this is like multiplier effect of spending.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: So, generally speaking, the less government spending you have, it means you are crowding out less private spending and therefore the private sector does just a lot better.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: So it's actually a win-win Plus.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Lower government spending really really helps.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Less government spending really really helps.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Less government spending really really helps.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Lowering the 10-year yield, because the reason the yield is so high is because the bond market is worried about all that debt that Biden and co have been piling up for decades.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: It wasn't entirely him.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: We can blame it all on the senile old chap, but it wasn't all his fault, although he definitely did more damage than pretty much anybody else ever out there.