Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - Record Military Budgets Result In A Lost War + Sizing Up The 2028 Presidential Contenders

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Full Episode - Record Military Budgets Result In A Lost War + Sizing Up The 2028 Presidential Contenders · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: This episode of The Chuck Podcast is brought to you
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  Speaker 1: by Chapter. Now, almost everything you hear about medicare is
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  Speaker 1: somebody quietly trying to steer you somewhere, and you're skeptical
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  Speaker 1: to distrust everyone in this space, honestly, I get it.
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  Speaker 1: I'm a bit distrustful these days myself. That's the whole
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  Speaker 1: reason I want to tell you about Chapter. They're independent
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  Speaker 1: medicare advisors whose entire model is that their advisors are
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  Speaker 1: it's across the board is what they're trying to do.
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  Speaker 2: So look, I get it.
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  Speaker 1: I think there's all sorts of space. You see a
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: lot of people are throwing themselves in this healthcare space.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: When I like about these Chapter folks, I've spent time
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  Speaker 1: with them. This is a very transparent organization. It is Medicare,
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  Speaker 1: and then call Chapter today at nine eight zero seven
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  Speaker 1: three four three nine eight five, Hello Aaron, Welcome to
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: the Monday episode of The Chuck Podcast. Look, I've got
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of just sort of the basic politics of
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the last seventy two hours. A few things I want
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: to talk about, including just the horrendous treatment right now
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: by the administration just of rhetoric and dealing with the
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: concerns about the sailors on the US Abraham Lincoln. We've
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  Speaker 1: got the Todd Blanche debacle that continues. We've got a
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  Speaker 1: primary coming up this week, which means we've got another
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: live stream coming up. I hope you will check that
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: out adeed with my partners Crystalis and DDHQ. Florida's the
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  Speaker 1: big one this week, so we'll do a little bit
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: of that. My interview today is Jonathan Martin aka j
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: mart from Politico, and it's very twenty twenty eight focused.
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  Speaker 1: In fact, we spend a lot of time on the
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  Speaker 1: on what could be a bigger, jugger not candidacy than
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  Speaker 1: I think we fully appreciate, and that is the potential
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: candidacy of the woman who represents the Bronx, Alexandria Cassio Cortez.
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  Speaker 1: So a lion's share of our conversation about her the
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  Speaker 1: role she could play in the twenty twenty eight race.
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  Speaker 1: And frankly, what happens if she's an active candidate. What
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  Speaker 1: did we learn over the last couple of weeks that
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: shows you the amount of oxygen she's going to suck
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: up if she's an active candidate. And I don't think
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: folks appreciate how quickly the field shrinks on the Democratic
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  Speaker 1: side there. But look, my main event today besides my
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  Speaker 1: interview with my old friend and pal, Jonathan Martin, and
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: we apologize for how fast and shorthand we speak sometimes,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: but if you know us, you know us. I've been
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: dealing with a kidney stone. Full confession there. That was
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: how I spent my Saturday nights last Sunday morning. It
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: is I am a veteran of it, unfortunately or fortunately,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: which means I know exactly the rhythm of it. The
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: good news is right at this moment, I am in
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: the tweener stage. The pain is gone, but I've not
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: passed the little guy. I hope it's a little guy.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: That's always the hope here. So now that I've gotten
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: that TMI out of the way, let me dig in.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: I spent part of my weekend last week late last
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  Speaker 1: week in Indiana, and I want to welcome some of
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: my new Indiana listeners. I have a feeling quite a
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: few of you have liked and subscribed. I spoke in
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  Speaker 1: Indiana and Indianapolis specifically, by the Way, a city I
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: just love visiting. I just think it's probably the most deficient,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: well laid out downtown there is. So kudos to all
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: of the city planners and all of the great bipartisan
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: and cross partisan leadership Indianapolis has had over the years,
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: which in fact brings me to the group that invited me,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Recenter Indiana. They're trying to promote nonpartisan civic engagement and depolarization.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: And let me just tell you, I came away enormously
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: impressed with this group. They're not asking people to abandon
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: their own politics or ideology.
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  Speaker 2: That's what not what this group's about.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: They're trying to get people who do disagree with one
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: another participating in the same civic community. Again, when they
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: say Recenter Indiana, they're not asking people to become centrists.
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  Speaker 1: They want everybody in the public space to recenter their
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  Speaker 1: priority to be Indiana first, what's in the best interests
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  Speaker 1: of the community first, That should be not some sort
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: of ideological fever dream. And that's what I loved about this.
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  Speaker 1: They were not asking people to moderate their own politics.
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  Speaker 1: They were saying, look, the number one goal of public
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  Speaker 1: service here in the state of Indiana, Indianapolis is what's
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  Speaker 1: doing in the best What are you doing to improve
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  Speaker 1: the lives of your fellow Hoosiers. What are you doing
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  Speaker 1: to improve the ability of the state to be a
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  Speaker 1: great place to live, of the city to be a
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  Speaker 1: great place to live? And I think that's very different,
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  Speaker 1: and frankly, we need more of this. I know there
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  Speaker 1: are a lot of groups all over the country that
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  Speaker 1: are trying to do this. Can't we get out of
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  Speaker 1: this sort of partisan shit show that we've all found
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  Speaker 1: ourselves in.
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  Speaker 2: The answer is yes. Now, I'm not surprised.
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  Speaker 1: Indiana has always had a culture of you know, it
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  Speaker 1: may be a red state, but it is not a
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  Speaker 1: pugilistic state.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: They don't like politics like that.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: So it doesn't surprise me that, like a Utah, that
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: has been very you know, pushing back against this sort
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  Speaker 1: of pugilistic, ideologically driven of horror politics that are people
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  Speaker 1: like Donald Trump champion in That's not Indiana, right, It
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  Speaker 1: explains why that the redistricting hit a wall, which is interesting.
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  Speaker 2: There so.
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  Speaker 1: Loving these organizations. Kudos to my friends at Recenter Indiana.
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  Speaker 1: Count me a chanceampion and a supporter, and you know,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: I'm sure there are other organizations like there. I'd love
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  Speaker 1: to hear from you, either on this podcast or somewhere else,
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: because this is something I hope that becomes contagious. We've
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  Speaker 1: got to recenter our priorities about public service. We are
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  Speaker 1: not here to do ideological experiments or to self and rich.
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  Speaker 1: Public service is about creating a better community for all
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  Speaker 1: of us to live. Now, let me get angry here
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  Speaker 1: for a minute. Our friend Todd blanche It is astonishing
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  Speaker 1: to me how absurd, in myopic the Republican senators who
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: supposedly were on the fence about this were about this guy.
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  Speaker 1: And again, this is not about whether mister Blant the
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  Speaker 1: individual has got the qualifications to potentially serve as attorney general.
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  Speaker 1: This is about whether he understands what the job is
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  Speaker 1: and he understands the difference between being a personal attorney
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: and an attorney general, and clearly he does not. He's
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  Speaker 1: been Attorney General for about five minutes and he's already
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  Speaker 1: told us exactly what kind of attorney generally tends to be.
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  Speaker 1: On Friday, Blanche appeared at a political rally with Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump that was there for New York Republican doumernatorial candidate
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  Speaker 1: Bruce Blakeman. I'm sure all of you remember Merrick Garland
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  Speaker 1: doing these stump speeches for Kathy Holkel. Oh right, they
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  Speaker 1: didn't happen because nobody ever would have behaved this way.
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  Speaker 1: This is not what attorneys general traditionally have ever done,
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  Speaker 1: right you basically the most you know, Yes, the absurdity
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  Speaker 1: of Nixon putting his attorney general in charge of his
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: campaign is a mixing of that. But if you have
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: to go back to Nixon to find an example for
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  Speaker 1: your attorney general, then you're probably not doing the attorney
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  Speaker 1: general lying very well?
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  Speaker 2: Are now? Are you? So?
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  Speaker 1: Here is the attorney general in the United States? Justice
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  Speaker 1: is blind?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah?
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  Speaker 1: Right, partisan political rally. And then on Sunday to my
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  Speaker 1: friend Kristen Welkoer, I meet the press. I guess we
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  Speaker 1: should give Blanche credit for being honest. But given the
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  Speaker 1: opportunity to say something pretty simple that the Dust's Department
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  Speaker 1: will operate and should operate in de penantly of the
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  Speaker 1: White House.
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  Speaker 2: He said he would not do that.
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  Speaker 1: In fact, Blanche said that the Attorney General should never
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  Speaker 1: make that a commitment. No attorney general should what Todd
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  Speaker 1: Blanche wants the Justice Department to be politicized. That's what
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  Speaker 1: he went on television on Sunday and said. And I
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: know how this works. Some people are going to hear
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: me say this and assume this is simply some sort
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: of partisan driven outrage about Donald Trump, that this is true. Dds,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: give me a freaking break. Okay, if you thought Eric
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  Speaker 1: Holder was too close to Barack Obama, you should be outraged.
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  Speaker 1: If you thought Merrik Garland was politicizing the Justice Department,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: you should be outraged. If you thought Democrats violated the
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: traditional firewall between the White House and the Justice Department,
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: then presumably your solution was to rebuild the fucking firewall.
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  Speaker 1: But instead you take what you think happened, which you
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: don't have evidence that it did, but you project it,
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  Speaker 1: and you behave worse than the way you accuse the
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  Speaker 1: other side of behaving. You are literally burning the rest
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  Speaker 1: down this idea that they did it, so now we're
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: all going to do it.
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: Worse.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Two wrongs make a right theory of government. This has
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: been how Donald Trump has lived his life. They came
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: after me, so I'm going after them. That's not how
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: the frickin' constitution works, sir. It's fucking asinin. Blanche was
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's personal lawyer. Everything has done since becoming Attorney
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: General suggests that he has simply retained the client and
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: changed the title on his business card. Pure and simple.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: He is behaving like the president's personal lawyer, with the
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  Speaker 1: title now of Attorney generally the United States not even
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: acting Attorney general thanks to the I don't know what
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  Speaker 1: the handful of Senate Republicans that said they were concerned
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: about these things, John Corny and Tom tillis Bill Cassidy Really, guys,
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  Speaker 1: you're telling me, after watching this performance and meet the press,
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  Speaker 1: you feel good about your vote.
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: Jesus. The White House begged.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: And pleaded and twisted arms to get him through the Senate,
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  Speaker 1: no doubt, Blanche told those three senators in particular, No, no, no,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: don't worry.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: You know how nut job he is.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: You know I know how to handle him, and that
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: crazy you know Cassidy hand sort of hanging his hat
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: on what Bill Barr told him Bill Barr, who had
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: to resign because there were things he wouldn't do for
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump. And Barr's recommendation purportedly was, well, Blanche could
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: tell him hard truths. Oh really, you tried it, mister Barr.
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  Speaker 1: Didn't work, now, did it?
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: Good griefs.
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  Speaker 1: I'm sure some of those Republican senators told themselves that
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: whatever their concerns about Blanche's relationship with Trump, you know,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: the institution would hold. Well, he's telling you it's not
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: going to hold. He's telling us. I get again, give
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: him bonus points for telling us the truth. Because the
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: traditional idea of an attorney general somebody who is part
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: of an administration but understands that the prosecutorial power of
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the United States government cannot become the personal instrument of
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: the president. Well, Blanche has explicitly rejected that ideal and
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: that notion, and he's barely even unpacked his office. So
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: while we're on the angry front, let's talk about what's
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: going on with the USS.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: Abraham Lincoln.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: You know, lousy leadership doesn't just sort of stay inside
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: the Justice Department. This story is pretty infuriating to a
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: lot of people, and it should be the Lincoln has
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: now been deployed for more than two hundred and sixty days,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: more than two hundred consecutive days at sea without a
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: port call. Thousands of sailors and marines have been aboard
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: the ship supporting the war with Theron. Families have been
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: describing sailors losing enormous amounts of weight, problems with food
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: and water plumbing, serious mental health concerns, and multiple sidents
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: involving sailors purportedly attempting to go overboard. And Donald Trump's
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: response when asked whether this deployment had gone on too
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: long not nearly long enough?
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: What is he thinking? Pete Eggsas says.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: The conditions have been misrepresented. What's interesting there is this
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: is again a little bit of a weasel word. When
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: he said misrepresented, it's acknowledging. Then, well, yeah, some of
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: these facts are true, but how the facts are getting
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: characterized anyway. So even if every allegation isn't exactly right,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: we're now sending another aircraft carrier halfway around the world
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: to relieve them. The George Washington is being diverted from
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: the Pacific towards the Middle East. So let's beyond the
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: empathy question for a second. I don't know why that
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: was so difficult, the fact that neither Trump or Hegseth
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: could even pretend to be concerned about the soldiers, because
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: again they ran claiming that Democrats don't care about the military. Clearly,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: we know who doesn't care about the rank and file
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: in the military. It's these two gentlemen. But look, that
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: ought to be the human reaction. But there's a larger
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: national security store here. We were not prepared for this war,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: pure and simple. The fact is we did not have
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: You know, these two aircraft carriers are having to go
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: further than they should have, further than they ever did
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: in World War Two, in order further than in any
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: war we've ever had, in order to get supplies, in
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: order to get all these things. It is a complicated operation,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: but we were just not prepared. Essentially, Trump and hag
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Seth took the United States into a war for which
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: the US military was not adequately prepared to sustain this
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: long of an operation. Now maybe they thought it was
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: going to be much shorter, but again it gets back
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: to we weren't prepared. And this treatment of the sailors
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: on the Lincoln is proof. In another piece of evidence
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: that we were completely unprepared for this war. We clearly
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: went into it without any sort of forethought at all.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: By the way, we keep passing record breaking defense budgets
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: decade after decades, since nine to eleven. Every few years
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: we're told we have to spend more, even more money
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: to modernize the force, hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: And then the actual war starts and suddenly we're improvising
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: carrier rotations, we're pulling assets from the Pacific, We're running
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: sailors into the ground. We're discovering shortages and readiness problems
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: all over the place. We don't have enough munitions. At
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: some point we probably need to ask a much bigger
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: question is what the hell have we been buying? Because
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: China isn't going away while the George Washington has to
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: sail to the Middle East, Russia isn't going away, North
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Korea isn't going away. And if fighting Iran puts this
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: much strain on the American military, this little one country,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: this country, we're supposedly easily be able to bull those down,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: what does that tell us about our readiness for something larger?
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: This needs to be a much bigger conversation than I'm
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: going to get back to because something doesn't add up here.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: We spend more and more and more on defense, and
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: every time we actually test the system we discover another
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: part of it isn't ready. It's not a problem you
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: solve by giving beach is about the warrior ethos for
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: a guy doesn't know anything about the actual rank and
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: file military. It's a clear leadership problem, a procurement problem.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: So you do need somebody that has a brain on
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: their head, not somebody who's drinks and eats too much creatine.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: And ultimately it's a national security concern. So look, it's
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: not only bad politics what the administration is doing in
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: what they're saying about the Lincoln. My goodness, you know,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: military veterans and military families lean Republican. It's not as
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: much the landslide people like.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: To make it out to be. But I'll tell you this,
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: if you're if.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: You're a Republican running in North Carolina with their large
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: military population, is there an open Senate seat there?
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: Oh?
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Right, there is? Yeah, good luck, Michael Wattley. It's your
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: race is already probably gone. Your opportunity is probably gone.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: But Donald Trump and Pete Haikseth are only making it harder.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: One more quick.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Point, the coming preparing for the coming civil war inside
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party over JD. Vance, I'm becoming increasingly convinced
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: here that we're headed toward a much bigger fight inside
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party than people realize. We spent a lot
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: of time this summer talking about the ideological divisions in
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party. I'm going to spend more of them
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: with my conversation with Jonathan Martin. These are real divides,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: but boy, the Republicans have one coming too, and it's
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: a big one. Vance is beginning to articulate one side
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: of it. You know, it's an America that retreats. It's
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: an America that is on an island, right it is?
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: No, he doesn't want the US dollar to be the
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: world's currency. He wants to make everything more expensive for
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: all of us to buy. He claims it'll make exports cheater, cheaper, okay,
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: but it will make imports impossible. Fewer alliances. See how
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: that's worked out, right, Alienating alliances has really helped us
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: out in this Iran war. But that's an argument he
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: wants to make and America that increasingly views the instituts
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: and alliances built after World War Two that they somehow
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: are all liabilities rather than sources of American power. Now,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump could sell versions of this, because Donald Trump
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: has never really had a coherent ideology. Trump is Trump right,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: He's got his own weird charisma that people fall for.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: His personality is the ideology. Jedi Vance doesn't have that
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: kind of charisma, right, He's got to hope his actual
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: argument carries the day. Eventually, Vance has to sell his
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: worldview to actual Republicans, business Republicans, national security Republicans, Reagan Republicans.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: They may be only twenty to twenty five percent of
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: the party, but they're the difference between winning and losing
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: for a Republican these days. Republicans who believe America's alliances
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: are an economic advantage, Republicans who believe American engagement abroad
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: is one of the reasons America is powerful here at home.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: And I don't think they're all going to go along
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: for this crazy ride of Vance that sort of has
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: this version of right wing ideology that suddenly starts to
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: look like left wing ideology. And I have to tell you,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: I'm becoming more skeptical than ever. That Advance becomes a
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Republican nominee for president, the party simply stays intact. I
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: can imagine a meaningful group of what one might call
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: pre Trump or traditional Republicans deciding that Vance's Republican Party
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: isn't their party anymore. Maybe they thought they could handle Trump,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: but they won't be able to handle this. And I
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: think the likelihood of an independent candidacy or something like that,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: it doesn't have to succeed, it just chips away and
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: it makes it where that a Republican ticket can't get elected.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: But we'll see, But that argument is coming. Trump's personality
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: has papered over an enormous ideological contradiction inside this Republican coalition.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Dvance does not have the personality.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: To do that.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: A couple more things before I get to the main
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: event here in Mark Waltern, And this is simple, uncomfortable
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: question that I'd like some folks to answer for me. Yes,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: this is a rhetorical question, but you know where I'm going.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: While we're talking about this war with Ron, I've got
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: another question. Where are the protests? Seriously, where's the American
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: anti war movement? Because we just spent a couple of
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: years watching enormous demonstrations in the United States over Israel's
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: war and gossip. College campuses were shut down, There were encampments, marches, arrests,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: protests outside lawmaker homes, protests at political conventions. It was presented,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: in its significant part as an anti war movement more
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: than anything else. Okay, well, now the United States is
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: actually at war. American forces are fighting, American members of
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: the military are dying. Oh, by the way, the entire
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: American economy is getting hurt by this war. We just
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: told you about the American sailors that have spent more
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: than two hudred days at sea. So where is everybody?
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: The difference is striking folks, striking enough that I think
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: it forces the uncomfortable question. Was Gaza actually an anti
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: war movement? Because if opposition to war was the organizing principle,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: this should be the moment when that movement explodes, and
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: it hasn't. Now, there are other possible explanations. The crackdown
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: on campus protests clearly had an impact. Some protesters were arrested,
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: some foreign students faced immigration consequences. Universities changed their rules. Fine,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: that's part of it. It's also part that this was
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: outsiders outside the United States organizing these protests, just like
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: a lot of us said what was going on. These
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: weren't necessarily as American driven as maybe some people wanted
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: you to think. But let's be honest here, I don't
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: think that's enough to explain the disparity. And I think
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: those of us who were told repeatedly that the Gaza
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: protests were fundamentally about opposition to war are entitled to
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: ask was the animating issue actually war or is the
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: animating issue Israel? Because those are two very different political questions,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: and they're two very different political movements. If this movement
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: can mobilize enormous numbers of people when Israel is fighting
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: a war, but cannot mobilize anything remotely comparable when the
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: United States itself is fighting one poorly, I might add,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: and I'm sorry, the credibility, its credibility as an anti
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: war movement is on the line. Maybe it was primarily
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: a Palestinian solidarity movement, Okay, I get that, I understand
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: the support for that.
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: I respect it.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's a syniicpic and part of it really is
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: an anti Israel movement, and yes, given some of the
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: rhetoric and behavior we saw during those protests, there are
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: legitimate questions about whether these protesters really were about anti
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: war pro Palestinian how anti Israel?
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: Was it?
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Anti bib Net Yahoo? And of course where does that
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: end and where does anti Semitism begin? Well, whatever the
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: explanation is, the silence on Iran right now tells us something,
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: because sometimes the most revealing thing about a political movement
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: isn't what brings people into the streets.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: That's what does it. And finally, one more thing to
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: p mode.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Of course, our big live stream crystal is a DDHQ.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: We are man, these things are so good. I have
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: become so important to people that we now have the
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: major networks are trying to horn in on this. God
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: bless you guys. Welcome to the game, Welcome to the show.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: I'm glad to see you realize the opportunity that is
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: out there. We're excited about our coverage. Obviously, DDHQ is
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: as good as it gets. When it comes to count
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: the votes Tuesday, it's Florida. Ronda Santis is term limited.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: You got Byron Donald's. There's a few things I'm curious
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: about that I'm watching. I think we all think Byron
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Donald's going to be the Republican nominee for governor. That
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: won't be a surprise. Is he getting sixty percent or
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: is he getting forty five percent? There are more people
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: in this bribery that you realize. A former state speaker,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: the sitting lieutenant governor. A lot of polling has been
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: all over the place here, just how you know how
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: important is you know Trump as a as a sort
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: of Florid transplant Floridian. Now, how important is his endorsement?
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: So I'm just curious the Donald's number. He's going to
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: be the nominee, but is it in the Is he
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: sitting around fifty or does he get even more than
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: that center primary? The only competitive center primary might be.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: On the Democratic side, You've got Alex Vinman of Impeachment
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: one fame, the whistleblower on.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: Ukraine.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: And you have a state representative woman named Angie Nixon.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: She's been running a lot longer than Vinman has. She's
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: been a Floridian a lot longer than Vinman has. And
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: this is one thing you need to know about Vinman
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: is that he has not lived in the.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: State of Florida.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Long enough to run for governor, you need a seven
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: year residence requirement. On that I believe he's only been
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: a resident for about three and a half years now.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: You can literally be a resident for an hour and
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: suddenly start running for either the House or the Senate.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: There's always a higher bar if you wanted to run
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: for governor. But I emphasize that because look, Vinman may
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: win two to one. That's possible. He may just ride
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: the coattails of Jolly here. But let's just say it
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: wouldn't shock me if this is a much closer race
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: than people expect, and of course we'll have a few
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: house races. Does Corey Mills prive his primary? Seems like
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Republicans are hoping against hope that happens. W Wasserman Schultz
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: moved to a predominantly African American congressional district. A lot
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: of local African Americans upset about that, including my University
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: of Miami pow uncle Luke Luther Campbell there. So let's
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: see how that goes. I'm very curious what her number
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: is in that race, so there'll be a lot to do.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Jared Moskowitz, Democratic Member of Congress represents Parkland High School
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: from the infamous from that horrible shooting. He is being challenged.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: This is the one sort of progressive versus establishment primary
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: that may be competitive. So look, we're spending primarily our
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: time on Florida on Tuesday. We know we've got our
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: friends in Wyoming and Alaska as well. This episode of
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: the Check Podcast is brought to you by fand OL
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  Speaker 1: zero seven eight sixty seven. If you're in Louisiana, well
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: it's been a few months, so it's time to go
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: off in all sorts of tangents with my longtime pal
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: Jonathan Martin of Politico. Many of you know him as
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: j mart He is always traveling, He's got Politico allowing
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: him to expense barbecue lunches and interviews all over the
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: country these days.
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: This is exactly right.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: The New York Times said no, Politico said yes, right,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: like you know, this has been the dream you've had
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: for a while.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: Who's going to pay me any Times? Politics, Well, thanks
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: for having me. I'm coming at to you from Sacramento.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: You can't see it, but just over my left shoulder
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: here is the dome of the state Capitol of California.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: Here I got up early on the East coast time
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: and walked around gorgeous capital under construction, forever under construction, construction.
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: But no, the Times didn't have the idea. I give
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: full credit to Jonathan Greenberger and Annie Allen. My colleagues
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: at Politico were coming up with us adventure, Jeff. They said,
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: if you're going to keep expensing all these meals on
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: Politico you're having with politicians, you got to bring a
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: camera and a boom mic. We're tired of paying for
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: all these meals. Just tape the damn things you're doing
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: all this travel anyway, So that's what we do. It's
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: called on the road, and we interview politicians over good meals.
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: That's it's good stuff. Look, I am a huge advocate
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: of in person. That's what I've been doing with this
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: news for your show, Like exactly, I refuse to do
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: a remote on it period.
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: Like it's so much more rewarding.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: It is ninety It's always more rewarding. Everybody's happier, The
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: guest is happier. You know. It's funny about these elected officials.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: I feel like, on one hand, some of them know, hey,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: I need to go everywhere. On the other hand, they're
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: still so risk averse. Yes, and you're like, if you're
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: in person, the risk is always much less than you
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: think it is. Yes, a human to human conversation is
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: always going to be polite, because that's what humans do.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: You know, when you're inanimate.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Objects and you're on a zoom or whatever, sure, you.
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: Know it's going to get it.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Can it's easier to see you as a two dimensional figure.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: So yeah, you know it cursed me. Speaking of good meals,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: I'm rocking my Central Barbecue shirt here from Memphis, A
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: good plug for the one Great Barbecue Joint, Memphis, Chuck.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: One of my earliest memories of working with you at
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: the Hoighline was the straw pole.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Oh, the one we did in Memphis, right, the front runner,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: George Allen versus Bill Frist.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: Bill he may have stuffed the ballots by the way
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: there in them.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but it was you know what we if you remember,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: the big story was how Romney had quietly organized every
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: LDS member that they could find in Tennessee and they
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: showed up to the Strapol and all of a sudden,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: it was like, holy yes, how did Mitt Romney do
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: so well? And it was like, oh, right, he's going
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: to be able to organize it in ways that folks,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: And it was sort of a you realize that this was.
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: A leaping giant organizer. It's probably the high water mark
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: of the Frist for President campaign. It was two thousand
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: and six straw poll. And you know, it's funny about
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: that campaign.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: Body Hotel is when I remember is Corker was helping him, Yes,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: and it was I mean, it's just sort of that
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: whole Tennessee Republican Party is dead.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: They don't They just don't exist anymore. Mar Haslam frisk Worker, Yeah, no,
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: it's a different animal. I remember Trent Lott was there too,
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: because he was still in the Senate. He wasn't leader anymore,
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: but he was still in the Senate. I had his
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: resurrection Chuck, and he said, welcome everybody to Memphis, Mississippi.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: I love the fact that the North Psissippians claimed Memphis
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: as they're ound. Anyways, a fond memory of the year
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty. I know, I know, I know, thanks a lot.
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it, Uh, anytime to remind of age. Let
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: me start with the conversation you had this week footage, Yeah,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: with Pete, because I think Pete has an interesting challenge
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: when he runs for president this time with the Biden
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: baggage and does he understand that it's baggage? And I
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: sort of see Pete as the avatar for the governing
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: wing of the Democratic Party. Right, I've decided to come
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: up with, like, what do you call this? You have progressives,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: you have sort of governing and then you sort of
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: have it on the republican side too. I used to
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: call them the legislating conservatives, right, but you basically have
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: the governing wing of the party and the activist wing.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: And I think now.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: That's sort of the simplest way to describe the divides
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: in each stuff, right, that there's an activist wing, and
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: there's a governing wing. And the governing wing's biggest challenge
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: and why they keep losing, I think is they're just
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: not acknowledging what the voters are feeling. They keep wanting
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: to tell the voters that they're not that they shouldn't
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: be feeling the way they are, because hey, didn't you
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: know we did this? And don't you know we did that?
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: And you know you're not feeling that we are, and
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: that what Donald Trump did so well in sixteen and
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: what I think, frankly, what an abdul lsi ed does well,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: and what Francesca Hang is doing, and these socialists are doing,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: they're going they're just simply agreeing with the voters. Like
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: you know, the simplest way to get traction is to
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: agree with your audience twenty ten. It's terrible for media consumption,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: right because it leads to a sycophantry, but it does.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: You know, in politics, you better agree with the people
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: you're trying to get to vote for you.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: That's why those Tea Party cans one in twenty ten. Oh,
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: you and the GOP grass roots are outraged about Obama,
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: and you're mad at your party for two when okay, like.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: So am I yeah, it worked pretty well, me too,
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: right Now they don't know how to govern after that,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: but it's a way to get in. And I think that,
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: you know, as the governing wing or the bootage edges
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: of the world, and everybody tries to figure out what
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: the hell does this socialist stuff mean? I think there's
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: a simple explanation. Those candidates are agreeing with the voters
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: that the Democrats suck too, right, And I don't know
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: how a Pete Bootages navigates that issue because he was
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: part of it.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: He was part of it. His personality is one of
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: an individual who doesn't want to destroy institutions. He wants
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: to work within them to make them better. Now he
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: has some pretty.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: Pro renovator not a bulldozer, you know what I mean? Like,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: do you think they are bulldozers? And they're renovators, And
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: he clearly wants to be a renovator of course. And
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: also he's he's a man of institutions, right. He's an
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: archetype of the American story, midwesterner, smart, precocious, always impresses
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: older people, finds his way to the Ivy leagues, gets
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: a Rhodes scholarship, joins the military, gets in the public life,
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: Like we know that story in America, and that's just
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: not someone who's burning down the house.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: He's trying to tinker and improve the house. Now what
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: he would say is, yeah, but I got some pretty
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: pretty expansive ideas for this renovation. But it's still a renovation,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: you know, it's not a demolition. Right.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: So it is interesting how like a guy all of
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: a sudden, now Pete is for expanding the Supreme Court
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: and some of these things, and you're just like, I
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: don't think you're going to win over progressives by offering
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: up things that are not possible. Well, I think that
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: you know, this is what I you know, to continue
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: to sort of agree to things that aren't plausible only
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: is going to lead to problems down the road.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: And the left is never going to think of him
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: anything but as McKinsey Harvard Rhodes scholar. And that's like,
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: you can't undo that. You mentioned that Romney illustration earlier,
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: Like Romney could call himself severely conservative, but he was
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: never going to be of the right, and Pete's never
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: going to be embraced by the left. They're never going
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: to trust him. They're always going to be suspicious of
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: him because of his establishment credentials. And you know, Chuck,
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: I was thinking about this when I interviewed Pete and afterward,
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: because I asked him a question and it was like
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: the most I thought humane moment of the interview. I said,
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: were you born too late? And he said, born too late?
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: If I was born a couple of years earlier, I
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: couldn't even been elected in Danna. I'm a gay man.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: And I said, you would have had to have lived
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: in the closet if you were born earlier, and that
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: would have been your fate in politics. He said, yeah,
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: and that would have been unbearable. And it occurred to
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: me that Pete is not just the sort of traditional
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: Fitzgerald like American archetype of the midwesterner who comes east
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: and finds success. He's also a Washington archetype, Chuck. You
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: know this from working in Washington journalism. There's a long
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: tradition of gay folks in both parties who always played
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: prominent behind the scenes roles for presidents, members of Congress. Now,
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: thankfully they don't have to live in the closet anymore,
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: that they can come out now but there was always
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: a kind of advisory capacity in Washington. There's a great
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: by James Kirchik, the History of day Washington, and Pete's
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: kind of of that mold. Now, what's different now is
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: that you can live your life, thank God, openly and publicly.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: What's not different, Chuck, is you still got to have
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: a capacity to run for office of that personal touch
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: and that that sort of Clinton gift for charm and connection.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: And I'm just not sure Pete's ever going to have that,
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: which is a long way of saying I do wonder
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: if his future isn't advisory roles as an appointee rather
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: than elected official and politics.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: He's footagee chief of staff for Wes Moore State one day.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, or something. But can't you see that, Chuck, that
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: he's chief of staff secretary of State.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: There's a there's a rama manual quality of him. And
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: I say it it's a compliment, right, Rom's trying to
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: break out of the super Staffer said, you know, it's
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: so funny. He's been elected to multiple things and yet
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: I kind of sometimes want to compare him to the
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: Jim Baker's or the Leanne Panettaz of the superstaffers. And yes,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: you know he does. You know he knows a little
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: something about politics too, right like, and that was always something.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: But I interviewed Rom for my show speaking of plugging
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: my show and check thank you for your your generous
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: sure enough play, Rob, Jim James Baker was exactly the
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: person I told Rob. I said, I said, you know,
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: isn't this James Baker trying to run for president in
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: nineteen ninety six, which he almost did by the way,
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: And you know Rom didn't love the comparison. But the
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: ultimate insider, right, the ultimate connected made man. It just
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: the Baker was a Republican in Rams you know, uh, Dem,
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: obviously you know it's it is.
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: I do think this presidential race is going to start fast,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: meaning like the already has. The number of people who
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: will actively begin fundraising is probably more than five before
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: the end of this year, don't you agree?
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: And I wonder if this means we will have I mean,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: it will take the traditional route of the early front
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: runners wear themselves out right a la Clinton Giuliani six
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: and what happened to them by eight? Or are we
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: going to have a situation a la sixteen? So I
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: was thinking about let me throw a scenario at you. Sure,
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: in June of twenty fifteen, when Trump announced, I think
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: we all thought, all right, we'll all cover this for
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: a week or two. They'll be the g whiz. He'll
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: kind of get old. It will get old. And then
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: within two months the entire campaign was about how are
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: you responding to Trump? And what did Trump say today?
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: Why do I have a feeling that's the AOC candidacy
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: and that if she I I have a scenario on
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: my head where if she announces for president, it is
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: such a giant oxygen suck that I don't know if
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: there's room for anybody else. That it will I'm not
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: saying there won't be room for anybody else, but it'll
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: feel like you're either AOC or you're contrasting yourself. She's
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: no just like Trump. It ultimately was Trump and everybody else.
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: And I mean, I just look at the little I
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: mean the small.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: You know, she just talks.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: About freezing her eggs and it's giant news and conversation
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: and you're just like, boy, if she actually does this
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: every little second, I mean, look, I think, oh wait,
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: it's a pretty good example. When Obama got in it
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: became all about two people, and you had some incredibly
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: well resumee candidates who just went nowhere, Bill Richards, Christa,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden, John Edwards. You know, a little bit of
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: movement there for Edwards, but not a lot. Yeah, you know,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: And I was sort of envisioning that today and I'm like, boy,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: she could be such an oxygen side that all of
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: a sudden. I'm not saying she's inevitable to be the nominee,
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: but it becomes the entire thing becomes a referendum on whether.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: She should be the nomen I think there's a lot
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: to that. I would add that. I think also, like Trump,
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: there's this question of will she or will she? You
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: know Trump, this was a decades long question, Chuck by
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: you and I live this. He would always tease this
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: and never do it. I think what was jarring about
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: Trump the folks who covered it for years was is
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: he actually doing it? Is he really really doing it
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: this time around? I think there was that question, and
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: so I think we're waiting on that for her. Is
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: she going to do it at all? And she does, Yeah,
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: I think I will have a profound impact on the race.
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: I Chuck, I would set the stage a little earlier,
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: I would say, I think so much will be shaped
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: by what happens in November. And you know the results if.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Democrats coming up short scrambles a lot of things. For
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: the progressive right, Yeah, Democrats don't win the Senate and
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: only get in ten House seats, there is going to
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: be this Oh but for the left, yes, chattering chatter,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: And then it raises.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: The question if does the party go with its head
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: or its heart in twenty eight right? And I think
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: a lot of that will hang upon a handful of races,
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: this fall in Michigan being perhaps the most obvious one,
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: but there's definitely others too that are going to shape
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: the kind of moment will they will sort of upset
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: the mood music if you will for twenty twenty seven.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a I agree with you on that. That
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: that's sort of what is the result?
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: Right? How what is.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: And it, by the way, that might even shape how
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: many more candidates decide to jump in on Republican side
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: of things.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: Right, A clean sweep A and I vacillate.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know where your head is at these days,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: but it is if I just look at the numbers
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: from sixty thousand feet. I think this is gonna be
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: a wipeout. I think this is gonna be five to
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: seven Senate seats. I think it's twenty to thirty House seats.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: The problem you run into is when you start looking
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: at it race by race, and you know, the atmospherics,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: holy cow, I mean getting you know, and it's not
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: getting better.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: It keeps getting worse.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: And what he's doing with Iran and not like literally
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: Trump is the anti Midas touch right everything it seems
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: to get worse and all of this. And yet the
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: entire summer has been this, you know, internal about the
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: internal feud between the left and the governing wing of
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party, and voters have been reminded, oh, this
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: is what I didn't like about that brand. Now, I
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: still think midterms don't ever, rarely are referendums on the party. Yeah,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: and I certainly you know it is, and you know,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: the more likely outcome is Democrats overperform the expectations and
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: the left thinks this is some sort of mandate.
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: Right. I think we get caught up in some of
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: these primaries. We didn't know six the rom versus Howard Dean,
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: the democratic tensions obviously in twenty ten primaries establishment versus
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: tea party, and that tension does matter. But it also
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: is a reminder that a lot of that tension flows
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: from the power of an insurgency that comes in these
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: really favorable cycles for the party out of power, And
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: the reason they're happening at all is because the voters
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: in that party are pissed at their party for losing
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: the previous election. Right. But it doesn't mean that in
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: the fall there gonna they're they're not gonna show up
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: in droves and obviously vote against the party in power.
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: I'm always reminded Chuck of this. The Democratic brand is terrible.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: The Republican brand is terrible after they lose. Well, yeah,
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: and you know whose brand is also is terrible. Like
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: the home team in sports when they're getting their asses
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: kicked and the fans are calling into sports talk radio
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: because they're mad at their own team. Right, So yeah,
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: like this stuff matters. The divide in the Democratic Party
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: has huge consequences, I think for governing and for their politics.
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: But ultimately, you have a president in the thirties with
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: an intractable Middle East war and gas prices that have
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: spiked again because of that war, and I just to
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: borrow from Haley Barber, like, you know, you got to
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: keep the main thing the main thing, and when you're
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: doing political analysis, like that's the main thing, right.
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Toddcast is brought to you
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  Speaker 2: And that's what I keep coming back to.
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  Speaker 1: You're just like, boy, this this these atmospherics, I mean,
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: mag is gonna you can see the combination of all
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: of it, right Mega, sitting.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: Home in Texas, you and I think, well, it's Texas,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: so like Paxton still has still has an advantage, But like,
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: what's the scenario where things get better for Paxton?
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: You know, well that's the thing. What in the next
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: three months gets better for Republicans? Right, I can tell
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: you it gets better for Democrats. No more primaries, right,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: I mean you know, I mean just not having a
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: primary where where you're adding fuel to the fire about
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: the left versus you know, the governing whatever you want to.
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: You know, the the intraparty feuds.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: Right, once the primaries end, you know, then it's about
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: it's it's really just a referendum on Trump, you know,
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: our question.
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: Is Billy Barber. You know, good gets better and bad
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: gets worse. And I think that's going to be the
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: case with President Trump. Now, I will say, in fairness, Chuck,
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: I think there was a window there when when they
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: got the MoU with Iran, there were two or three
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: weeks where gas prices were yeah. Really, then it looked
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: like he could make this a blip. That's right, gas
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: prices were coming down. He found a way out of
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: the Middle East. I think once the Iranians decided to
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: keep having a vote in this, which they do by
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: controlling the Straits and by lobbing drones at American assets
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: across the Middle East, that was it.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: And you know what we failed to underappreciate. It was
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: a failure of underappreciation by Jimmy Carter in nineteen eighty
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: and it's being underappreciated now by the West wing, by
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, which is the Iranians are aware of our
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: political calendar too.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: Of course, the.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: Idea that the Iranians aren't thinking about our political calendar
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: as they decide how to exert pressure, when, when to
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: when to negotiate, when not to negotiate. I mean they
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: decided they were going to humiliate Carter at the very end,
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: and it looks like they want to humiliate Trump, you know,
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: they want to put Trump in as bad of a
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: political position as they can get.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: Him in by November. And Trump handed them the weapon.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: Right. They didn't have this kind of influence over his
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: political situation until he started a war without a without
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: an endgame, and that he thought.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: He could he could threaten them and that they'd back off,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: and he gave up on that, and then he decided
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: to do that he could buy him off. That didn't work.
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: He did try to buy off Idea too, and that,
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: you know. And then I got to go to Does,
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: which is like the Claire victory, and he signs the
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: m ou in Versailles quite literally, and I said, well,
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: sure this is the end and we can go to
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: like season two of The Apprentice, Like, no, we're still
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: long season one man. Yep, yep.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: We'd love to move on too, brother, but you are
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: stuck into this. You created this box which brings me
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: to the Republican side. Outside of Danson, Rubio and Youngkin.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: Is there anybody else we should be looking at that
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: doesn't have the last name of Trump. Yes, yeah, I
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: mean do you buy the John Kennedy stuff. I think
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: John Kennedy buys the John Kennedy stuff. I buy that
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: he's a little older than you realize, Chuck. You know, yeah, yeah,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: but he'll sniff at this and he gives great quote,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: and he'll know he's been to Hampshire already.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: He's going to Iowa. He'll have fun and do tons
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: of Fox hits and get some more attention. That books
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: sold like hotcakes. I mean hat tip to my pal
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: Keith Bond and Javel and that book really moved that
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: he did, which is not easy these days. I think
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: he's having fun, Chuck. I think the biggest question looming
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: over the right in twenty twenty eight is A who
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: carries the Tucker Carlson and Tuckerism banner? And B does
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: that real constituency or is this a manufactured Let me looking,
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: I don't I don't buy.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: I think it's got five percent written all over it.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: Please, but this is my point, and you you've now,
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: you've now created a nice segue for my second point,
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: which is who carries the banner? And B does that
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: banner get hoisted in the primary and or the general
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: and the third party? Capacity? This is gonna be Buchanan.
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: And the question is if you can in ninety two
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: challenging George H. W. Bush for the nomination, ors if
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: you can in two thousand, or you can say you know,
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: you know you can ninety six as well. I guess
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: challenging Dole for nomination.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: Getting ninety six one, then I'm sure primary people forget that,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: right Or to your point, is.
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: It a much more marginal effect with just the two thousand,
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: you can a model which is straight third party doesn't
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: have a lot of impact, but still matters enough in
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: a close race, right, And we know from Florida he did. Look,
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: somebody is going to do that. I don't if it's
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: Tucker himself, but somebody is going to run on the
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: kind of far right nationalism, close down the borders. It's
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: it's immigration, conspiracy theories, a lot to talk about, you know,
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: barely failed anti semitism that's coming. And Advance knows this.
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: He's consumed by it. He wants to vend it off.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: And the question is does Vance avoid this in the primary?
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: Does he face it in a third party? But it's coming.
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: Dance have the same disease that Trump has, which is
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: he can't quit that wing of the party. He doesn't
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: like it.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: I'm sitting here, why do you care if the if
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: the nutjob wing of your party is mad at you,
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: that's an opportunity to win over swing voters that normally
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: I'm glad we bring it up vans here, So for
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: them though, the primary, the primaries everything. These guys live
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: in the primary. You know, we've seen Vance as a
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: candidate exactly one time, and he was gonrendous. Yes, he
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: had to be bailed out. He was almost got into
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: a fistfight with Bernie Marino. He had was running out
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: of money, needed Peter Teal to write a check. They
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: basically begged Trump for the endorsement, to grab him over
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: the finish line because he didn't really succeed in his
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: campaign at all. Right, it was a crowded primary with
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: sort of well somebody had to win it. And so
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not convinced that Vance has is much of a
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: political athlete because we haven't really seen him do it success.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: Who else has not had a good game?
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: And you know, you know else has that fear as
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump himself? Right, Yeah, I mean there's no bigger student,
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: you know of this stuff. And Trump will say it
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: out loud and does say it out loud. So yeah,
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: I mean fantas track record is, you know, Trump and
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: Teal getting him over the hump in Ohio and then
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: relying on McConnell's money in the fall. I mean Rubio.
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: Actually, you know, when you look at the trajectory of Rubio,
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: his first race was the outsider challenging the establishment, sure, right,
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: Like the irony is that he's seen as the more
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: establishment guy now in Trump's cabinet, right twenty ten? Yeah, right,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: And yet the irony is that his rise was more
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: insurgent and successful. Insurgent, mind you. I mean, in fact,
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: the Florida Republican Party today, it's redesigned, began with that
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Rubio ousting of Crolie Crest, right like that, you know,
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: he is the original architect, and everybody that's come along
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: since in Florida is sort of a derivative of Rubio's
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: successful sort of takeover of the party.
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: The two signal campaigns of Marco Rubio's career, yeah, are
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: challenging people in his own party whose turn it was
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: It was Charlie Chris turning twenty ten and Jeff Bush's
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: turn in twenty sixteen is Jeddi Vance's turn in twenty
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: twenty eight. I'm not saying Rubio's going to challenge him
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: if Trump nudges him and sort of like pushes Vans aside.
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: There's a precedent in which you know, Rubio doesn't mind
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: challenging folks who's turn to this? Right?
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: No, I And like I said, if you just evaluate
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: it like evaluate it like you're evaluating two perspective quarterbacks
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: exactly right, and you just have to take occasionally do
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: right like well you feel just look at the tape.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Vance is a guy with I don't even know if
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: he's got the arm strength. I don't know if he's
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: mobile in the pocket. I'm not sure he can read
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: a defense. I can tell you about Marco Rubio. He
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: can run different styles of offense. He could do different
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: you know. It is it's not a close call about
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: who's got the chops to do this and who doesn't.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: But there is something about Rubio that I understand. I
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: get why Meg is a little bit allergic to him.
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, also it doesn't help that like the Wall
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: Street Journal is beating up on Van six ways from
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: Sunday and the entire donor classes trying to wish cast
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: Rubyo twenty eight into reality, and that's not.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: A good place to be either. You don't want to
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: be seen at party of the donors, no, because.
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: It reminds, it reminds Mago world and especially Trump and
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: his kids, that this guy is not totally one of you.
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: In fact, the old Guard sees him as their way back.
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: Right now, Rubio would say, sorry, guys like that, that
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: ship has sailed, like the times have changed and on
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: with this new jam here. But obviously you can't escape
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: that dynamic. Chuck. I do think, whoever, look, let's take
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: Ruby out of it. Let's take Ribeo as word. He's
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: not going to challenge fans. If that's the case, Chuck,
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: I think Vance's biggest challenge in twenty twenty eight on
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: the right, whether it's in the primary, a third party
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: is not a traditional Republican. It's not Glenn Youngkin, it's
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: not Ted Cruz, it's not somebody from the Party of
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: your I think it's that Tucker model, whether it's Candace Owens,
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: Tucker himself, Megan Kell, I don't know the vehicle is.
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: I just think that's gonna be maybe only a nuisance,
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: but it's gonna be what is the animating energy on
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: the right and the Republican Party in twenty twenty eight,
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: And why don't we think that that's not going to
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: happen on the left. Well, I think they're potentially stronger
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: on the left in twenty twenty eight. I mean, I
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: think an AOC candidacy consolidating a lot of Bernie votes.
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean that's my point, is that AOC's got enough.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: I guess what I'm saying is there isn't a you know,
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: you have this. The right is consumed with media coverage
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: in a way that the left is not. I mean
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: there's always been a little bit of this, and the
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: right is consumed with the media. What's being said matter
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: more than what's being done. Yeah, I do think the
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: left cares a little bit more about what's being done
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: than what's being said. Though increasingly you got sort of
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: these these interesting left wing posers here, and some are
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: less interesting. But it AOC. It's not Hassan Piker or
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: or somebody like That is my point.
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: No, exactly, which is why I think their ceiling is higher.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, look, I think a Tucker or a canvas
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: moment has a ceiling. Uh in the Republican Party. I'm
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: not sure what that ceiling is for an aosay. I
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: mean I think it's significantly higher. Ah, you.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: It is, But we learned a lot, I mean, you
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: know this and this goes back to I mean the
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: Michigan primary and how much closer it was than anybody
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: in Abduel Sayed's orbit thought it was going to be, which,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: by the way, tells me. You know, one thing the
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: progressive left needs is better polsters. They have some of
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: the worst polsters. And the numbers that the that these
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: far left polling firms put out is always a bunch
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: of garbage. And I don't know whether it's intentional, right,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: it's just trying to feed a narrative. And maybe that's
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: what you know, that makes it harder to weed out
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: these bad polls. But I think they do not fully
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: appreciate the electorates that exist sometimes and that they wish
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: cast electorates a little bit, because I don't know what
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: else explains why so many of these and it's a
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: very you know, it's usually one of three or four
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: firms that pop those things out.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean this goes to the heart of
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: the polling challenge we have now look even Wisconsin, Marquettz
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: the gold stand in Wisconsin, but polland primaries and hard
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: of the polling general elections, you know. So it's just difficult, right, especially.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: In a place like Michigan where there's no party registration
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: and you can have such a fluid back and forth
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: of electorates.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: But Chuck, how much of the Democratic primary twenty twenty
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: eight is going to be A voters under forty and
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: B voters with college degrees or postgrad degrees. Like that's
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: a significant part of the Democratic primary today. Maybe it
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: doesn't get give the nomination, but I think it makes
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: you real for well, this is where I look at it.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, to me, the story that didn't get enough
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: attention with the primary calendar was, boy did the establishment
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: do what it did everything it can to create a
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: calendar to stop AOC and Bernie. That's the way I
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: look at this calendar. This calendar looks like and a
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: calendar that is designed specifically too. And I'll be more
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: generous here to make it clear that if a progressive
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: is the nominee, they really had to.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: Work hard for it.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean starting with South Carolina ending
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: with Virginia. That feels like exactly the way Terry mcculloff
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: and Ram Emmanuel would want it.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, except for if South Carolina is fractured between a
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: lot of the mainstream lane, right, sure. I mean the
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: black vote in talk to Lina is about half the
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: primary elector it was just a shade under a half
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty. I assume it'll be probably a little bit
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: less forty eight percent, maybe maybe forty seven percent twenty
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: twenty eight because of the just the huge influx of
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: white retirees down there. That said, like, if that's consolidated,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: that that is considerable. And I was led to help
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: Biden in twenty What if that's fractured? Chuck? What if that?
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: No?
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, look, that's how you know.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: That's that's how you know if you if you tell me,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: you know that, That's how I would have sold it.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: If I'm if I've got to sell this to the
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: progressive wing of the party, are you guys screwing the
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: progressive's here? No, no, no, no, We're we're putting the
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: first South Carolina. There'll be more candidates in the race,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: and twenty percent might be a winning number, and so
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: maybe for the first time a progressive could win a primary.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: So it's certainly I would sell it, but I don't
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: think that's how it's going to play out.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: To be friends. The day that the d NC came
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: out with their rules, I wrote this the South Carolina
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: actively I decided to become Iowa. They traded decisive nominating
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: power to be the first better. That means more attention
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: to more money, but you have ultimately less influence and
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: deciding who the nominee is.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: It's a real trade off, but you do get to
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: shape the conversation better, Like you're not going to have
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: a progressive conversation in South Carolina that you would have
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: if you started either in Iowa.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: Names right, right, that's true. But Chuck, like, let let's
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: play this out. Let's say you have you know, Andy Basheer,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: Gavin Newso, Wes Moore, and or Rafael Warnot, Kamala, Harris Chritzker.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: You know AOC runs aggressively there. Let's say she gets
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: you know nineteen.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: You're saying, basically, I think I agree, she clears the
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: progressive lane.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: Right, Oh yeah, I mean, well, Conna's not run in
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: with this Murphy do, if you know, if there's no
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: what does Jamie Pritzker do? I think he tries to
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: be more of a hybrid, but I think it would
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: create real challenges for the Van Hollins and Murphy to
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: sort of see the opportunity to be kind.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: I put Pritzker in that column. I think Pritzker. I've
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: looked at Pritzker. I think he's a bit underrated. If
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: AOC doesn't run general, I think he's underrated general. He
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: could be the if there's no AOC. I could see
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: him stealing Rocanna's lunch money with the progressives.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he I think progressives want to like him.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: But you know, where does asof in this? Does Osof
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: get in? Then? If he does, what is his coalition?
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: I'll convince you you that he gets in.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: Huh?
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: How convinced to you that he's looking? I think it's
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: an open question. Yeah.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: So I look at his rise in running for office.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: He strikes me as somebody that would be self aware
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: to know you only get one moment once.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and this could be that the people Chuck and
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: Democratic Politics who bring up his name to me, is.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: I hear it a lot toooltarily, Democrats have a type
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: they always have, okay, and he makes his insider and
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: outsider credentials, young, articulate, good looking, tomorrow shining new car smell.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: Every single time Carter, Clinton, Obama, all three of us
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: is the Biden is the exception that sort.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: Of proves this, that proves this right. Democratic can more
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: Democratic presidents? Go back to Kennedy.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: The last four winning first time Democratic presidents that not
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: named Joe.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: Biden all were new tomorrow. Yes under fifty was Carter
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: under fifty? Things right there? He might have been for.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: He was right there, pretty close, but they were all
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: younger first time they ran for president, for all of them,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: and and and did it? No, I hear you on
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: asof It's like, you know, if you recall, I feel
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: like we even had this conversation a couple of years ago.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: We're like, you know, twenty twenty six.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: Could produce the actual nominee, right, and the question was
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: I'll have better, you know better or work loses in eighteen,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: but it was such a good loss that for a
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: for a hot second he was seen as a top
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: tier candidate for.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: We didn't have this conversation, yeah, either either Platiner, ass
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: Off or Tall Rico. I think we're three. Man. Look,
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: I'll throw in a new one in there. I'd throw
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: in a Duelsied. Oh sure.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: I mean if AOC doesn't run, he runs, he will
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: not miss a moment.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: More for, I don't think.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: He's as I keep saying, I don't think abdul led
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: is running to be this chairman of the Banking Committee.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: Correct, no question about his his riz as the kids say, yeah,
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: I think twenty twenty six will produce at least one
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: candidate for president that's going to be one of the
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: ones that we just mentioned.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: I thought about for a while. Platiner's now in the picture,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: but I think, yeah, you speak tonight. Now looks like
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: it's ASoP is going to be that yeah.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: Or or us Off. Yeah. So, but chuck back to
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: South Carolina. Let's say a USC does have that that
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: Bernie Lane effectively to herself, and Pritzker will get some
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: of it. Man, she gets nineteen or twenty one point
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: five percent, and like that's good enough for a bronze
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: medal or even like a close fourth. I don't know, man,
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: that's not bad.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: And if she spends the whole time where the expectations
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: are she gets no supergres in the black community, and
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: then all of a.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: Sudden she does a little bit better than we thought. Yeah, yeah, no,
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: you can, you can. You can see that scenario. Your
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: viewers should should should go online and pull up her
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: appearance at a little church called ebenez Or Baptist that
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: you may have heard of, and standing in doctor King's
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: pulpit at the introduction of speaking of Senator Warnock, Raphael Warnock.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: She held her own there pretty well and she said
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: some scripture. So if you don't think that she can
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: walk into the AMA Church in Orangeburg, each will watch
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: that clip. So I think she could do fight expectations
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: in South Carolina and Chuck, as you know, that's the
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: entire ballgame in the first couple of states his expectations.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: She does that off to the races, and.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: I do think she's got and the only look, the
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: thing that she'll have going for that's an odd negative,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: is that she's going to be one hundred percent name
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: id and she's going to be sort of national front
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: runner from the beginning.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: So that does come with a set of expectations. It does,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: it does, And also let's not sleep on that she
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: didn't run it all. She has all her option, she
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: can stay in the house. Yep, run for the Shoomer seat.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: So I thought it was it.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: Look, I don't think it was an accident that the
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: weekend after Abdul l si Ed gets all this buzz
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: on the left is going to be on multiple Sunday
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: shows on the weekend that she just said, Hey, by
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: the way, hello, and I'm going to do a couple
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: of things that everybody, if you choose to read this
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: as I'm preparing to run in twenty eight hey, I'm
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: not going to stop you.
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: That sure looked like it to me. I don't think
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: that timing was an accident. Jmark. I'm sure it occurred,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: if not the herds people around her, let's put it
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: that way.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean it is something I've thought of,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: which is, boy, does she have to pick between starting
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: a family and running for president? And she essentially without
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: saying it, is saying I'm not going to put myself
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: in a position to make that choice.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, to have to make that, Chuck, because I'm here
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: in Sacramento and I'm speaking to Nancy Pelosi today, But
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: by the time this area is all have already spoken
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: to her. But you know, Pelosi obviously got involved in
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: elected office after her kids were largely grown. She had
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: been a fundraiser and a state party She are very
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: active in politics in California, but didn't of course go
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: to d C until eighty seven. And at that point
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: her kiddos were were either out of the House or
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: or at least teenagers pretty close. Yeah.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: Well, and look, and that's the other thing, which is
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: AOC would trying to be doing something that we hadn't
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: have had over one hundred and fifty years, you know,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: not have you know, not have kids get elected president
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: without having kids, right, And I don't know if if
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that matters anymore.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: Or not, right or let me let alone her gender
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: and being single.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: Right right, Well that's yeah, but look, I'd looked at
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: that and I'm like, huh, I'm not saying it was
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: a a but it was almost like a reminder to
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: the abdu Alcias of the world. Hey, remember remember who's
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: who's in pole position here in the progressive length.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: Also not just that, but she stayed out of them,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: She stayed out of the main race. It was very
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: careful in that seat. In the House seat around Lansing.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: Right in the Democratic primary there, she once again declined
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: to take a side in Wisconsin. Doesn't want to get
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: identify with this left who's Anta Halloween or anti Thanksgiving
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: everything else? Right, So she has a pragmatic side to
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: her and Chuck speaking of Pelosi, just to look at
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: that relationship, right, how that started the way it is now.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: So she's much more of a practical, pragmatic operator than
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: folks realize.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: So, you know, the more we keep talking about these
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: presidential candidates, the more I realize that there are all
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: these other Democrats we haven't even mentioned yet, And I'm
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: trying to figure out there's no way they all run,
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: and what convinces some of them not to run? Yes,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: so Scavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, we haven't brought up
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: Mark Kelly. I think Reuben Diego's dreams are dead, but
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: maybe they're not.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know yet.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: But you know, there's a good twenty five people who
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: seem to be at least wanting to look at this race.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: And I wonder what will keep them from running if
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: they choose not to. Will it be money, Will it
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: be staff? Will it be uh?
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: Their own family, like do we do you think both
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: Gavin and Kamala get in? I mean, what's the downside?
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: I think for Kamala this is the last draw from
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: the same donor base. I need that. I don't.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: I'm skeptically either one of them can be the nominee.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: But they certainly, like Jeb and Rubio, will cut cannibalize
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: each other.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: They will. Yeah, I mean there's something to that. Financially,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: there's a but there's so much Democratic money online now
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: and they'll convince themselves they can raise it online. I
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: just think that that culture has changed when it comes
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: to finance.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: I kind of will they all think they can pull
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: a Howard Dean, which is if I if I, the
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: money will be there if I catch fire.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: Right like that, there's that mindset that I don't need,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: you know now, right, I don't need twenty seven bundlers
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: in Chicago, Dallas and every major metro because I can
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: just hit it, hit an email or you know, do
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: a last action and raise millions. Right. I just think
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: the money culture has changed. But yeah, I think Democrats
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: trying to figure out how to navigate the Kamala Harris question. Uh,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: you know there are obviously, as they say in Congress,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: chuck voting, vote voting, voting, no hoping, yes, right, but
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: they're albody hoping she chooses not to run, so they
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: don't want to have of course.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, right, the rest of the twenty six map, what
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: are the races that intrigue you that nobody talks about?
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: The farm Bell, Kansas, Nebraska, just because I think the
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: price of gas going back up has to repercussions and
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: those kinds of states.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: I'm obsessed with those four they you know, they all
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: continue right from South Dakota down to Kansas, right, those
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: four races South Dakota High well, those four center races.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: If Democrats, I think if Democrats pick up five or six,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: which is I think I'm one of those who believes
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: it's either two or six or so.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think it's a it. We're hanging around
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: about three or four, right, I think it's more likely
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: they get if that. If the six happens, it means
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: two of those four I just talked about in the
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: in the in the center of the country flip and
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: you know there's a ton of ingredients there, right. The
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: Trump policies have just hammered the ad community. Immigration has
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: been a huge problem to the AD business. Then you
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: throw in the high gas prices, the unpopular war in Iran,
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: and you've got you know, you've got literally two independents
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: in Nebraska and South Dakota, and you have two super
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: moderate Democrats.
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: In Turrek and Hamilton.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, if it's gone happen, they've got everything in
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: place to make that happen.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: How cemented is the red blue map? Is the other
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: question that I have and Chuck, both of us have
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: lived in the Great Commonwealth of Virginia, and I think
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: about what happened there in six with Jim Webb beating
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: George Allen presaging Obama carrying Virginia. Two years later, it
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: was unthinkable that the Democrat could carry Virginia and a
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: presidential race. But six sort of was the dawn over
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: because they won a federal race.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: Remember that was all went back to, Yeah, Democrats can
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: win governor's races in Virginia, but can they go back
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: to win a Senate seat again?
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: Right? So I won one since ninety four and then
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: they did. So I raised that to say, how locked
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: in is this red blue map? And if we do
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: see unlikely Democratic success in a place like Iowa or
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: like North Carolina in a federal race where it's been
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: pretty grim recent years. I love those states are back
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: and play, you know.
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: I And let's not let's not skip Ohio, and let's
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: not I don't. I don't rule out Kansas. I rule
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: out of Nebraska. Kansas has a bunch of ingredients to
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: it that have a little there's a there's a little
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: bit of Virginia, like you can see, like you know,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: Johnson that the Johnson County sort of blob only seems
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: to grow, right it's not as it's not like northern Virginia,
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: but it's not small anymore, right like, and so you
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: just sort of see it. You throw in the fact
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: that Topeka and Wichita, ever, you know, any urban corridor
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: becomes less concernableveed a couple of you know it is
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: it is certain Republicans won't play well in Kansas anymore.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: And now that's going to and and and certainly, if
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: somehow Democrats win a Senate see breaking that, I do
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: think it would signal something like that.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: Ohio is another story. I'm not I can explain.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: I could see Democrats winning both statewide races and it's
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: still not being in play in twenty eight.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that's right.
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: And because Sharon Brown is sort of a known quantity,
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: and I think if Amy Actin's governor, it's a rejection
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: of ram A swamming more than it is an endorsement
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: of her and a.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: Recall at a reset of the state back to being
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: the classic Bellweather which is not anymore uck to hearry
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: on the O eight metaphor. In your scenario, Kekanas kind
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: of becomes the Indiana, right, yeah, in which you have
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: a big metro with a lot of college educated voters
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: and just the perfect STOLLRM in which a Democrat could
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: carry it. I still think it's a stretch, even a
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: great democratic year in twenty eight for a democratic Kirie
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: Kansas and a federal race. Keep in mind, no senate
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: democrat has won Kansas sends the FDR thirty. Yeah, so
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: you no.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: Look, I think having one of the most famous Methodist
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: pastors in the country is a pretty good way of
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: seeing if you can break that trend.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: It's a big, it's a it's a great test. But
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: you love Iowa, you know, can can Democrats make Iowa competitive? Again,
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: it's not Ohio. Their their rural voters are different there.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: They vote have for Obama twice and.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: Like, by the way, the Iowa revolt in rural Iowa
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: is very similar to what we saw in Kansas on
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: these governors races. And it's all due to the education cuts. Yes,
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: and everybody's you know, Iowan's love their public schools, you know,
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: I know the national rhetoric is public schools are indoctrinating
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: all this stuff.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: Right, there's this that the right. You know, that's not Iowa.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: They love their local school They love their public schools.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: And what she did, you know, you know, and she
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: bragged at the time that she was borrowing from DeSantis. Yeah, right,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: it is, you know again, it's what I think is
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: hurt and Abbott. I think this these education cuts totally.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: I do not think people like it. And the right
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: is saying yes to a constituency that I don't think
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: exists as big as as they think it is.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, chuck, chuck, how many governors races have we covered?
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: Have you covered in which Democrats won on education in
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: some way shapes?
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: I mean that I can't believe it's never you know,
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: somebody brought this up. You know, education doesn't pop in
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: the national issues anymore because I do think voters have
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: realized this is a local and state issue.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: Well, the ROMs trying to change that by talking about
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: it a lot is and I don't think it hurts,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: you know, it's not, certainly not. You know, you do
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: want to.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: Talk about issues that people are talking about rather than
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: what you want to talk about.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: How many Democratic governors in the South in the last
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: forty years were elected because of education lottery one hundred
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: thousand percent exactly, And no, it's it's.
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know how many poles we have to see
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: in Texas. Do we start believing that Abbot Abbot's not
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: going to probably not going to lose, but it's going
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: to be a single digit race.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: He's got to spend a little bit of money he has.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we all thought he had that excess
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: money and that it was going to go uh and
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: and help Paxton.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: And uh our friend Dave Carney is gonna get good
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: use out of that that that Pat Austin in the
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: next couple of months. Yeah, exactly.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: All right, buddy, how are you how are you feeling
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: about about your u V A uh you know, when
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: I see all these ACC previews, it's Miami, it's Louisville,
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: s m U and u v A is UV a contender.
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: They had a little football resurgence here. I'm still more
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: hopeful about basketball than I am football, in part because
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: of the the the kids that roan Odom is bringing back.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: But no, look, I think they're capped out in football
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: because of the nature of football and the nature of
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: UV admissions. But they'll be competitive in the AC state
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: and they can get to a decent bold. Yeah, there's
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: no question about it. The bear story in our household
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: is can we borrow Lane Kiffin and sort of use
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: him as the as the the uh the sort of
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: temporary warrior, you know, mercenary type coach and get a
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: natty out of him before he goes to the NFL
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: is sort of the huge question, right, so we'll see.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: You know, that's either going to work or spectacularly fail. Right,
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: there's this isn't going to be a lot of ten
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: and two seasons with LSU.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: I feel like it's either, you know, it's either he
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: runs the table or not. I uh over three years
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: in Baton Rouge, Yeah, you know, yeah, Well, nobody likes
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: to stay in Baton Rouge these coaches. Brown was there
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: for a while.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know at Ogeron would have stayed. They
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: just didn't want them. Yeah, sure exactly. I mean yeah,
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: because he had two bad years.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: In a round. Now it's it's a hard job to keep.
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: And by the way I saw was Bama, I think
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: that's gonna be hard for the boy that job. Yeah,
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: but look, there's no question about it. Either Kiffen delivers
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: a natty or you know, this thing was an experiment
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: went bad and he's he's on the way out. So yeah,
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: it is. It is.
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: I feel like L s U is not going to
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: be satisfied with what they get out of this. And
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: at some point, and I say this, maybe I'm endorsing
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: the crystal ball way too quickly. I am certainly happier
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: that Miami found an alum to be the guy to
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: invest in, because he's more likely to stay. The problem
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: with doing these coaches like Lane is you know, the
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: the grass is always greener to Lane, and he is
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: just yeah, sure, yeah, you know, you're it's a rental
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: and you know, I don't las she's done this before.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: You rented a coach, you get a title and and
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: then all of a sudden it's not there and there,
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: and the satisfaction goes away.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: I it is. It is astonishing to me.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: Three century, three century, and they literally two they drove
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: ye two, they drove out one.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: You know, say, but I think they did want to keep.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: But that's all the three coaches with three Natties in
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: the century. Hopeful Land will make it four. All right, man,
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: I can't wait. I can't wait. We're still two more
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: weeks to weeks there. We got to get the brother.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: Do some scouting of the newest FBS team. You are
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: in Sacramento, Sacramento State. Do you know what conference they
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: are competing in in FBS this season?
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: Another nickname is the Stingers. Yeah. Uh are they playing
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: in the Mountain West? Where are they? Oh?
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: No, my friend, they are playing in the in the
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: mac They of course with Kent State, with Miami of Ohio,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: with Bowling Green, Sacramento State its.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: First year and the conference game, that's a conference game.
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: How do you get from Miami, Ohio to Sackdelle like, like,
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: you know, against a direct flight? What does that look like?
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: Man? I don't know what is it there's no Toledo
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: to Sacramento non stop for them either. Yeah, do you
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: know where Northern Illinois? Do you know what conference Northern
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: Illinois is in?
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're gonna tell me, like the Big Ten,
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised, But it's the Mountain West. It's
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: the Mountain West.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: So somehow Northern Illinois leaves the MAC for the Mountain West,
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: and the MAC in order to replace Northern Illinois decides
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: to recruit Sacramento State ladies and gentlemen.
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: That's college football politics look functional. It almost does better, guys,
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: take care.
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: So, uh, the time machine is gonna be with the
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: next episode. Basically, I did my special report on everything
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: we know and don't know about Mark Walter, the Lakers, Trump, Kushner,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers, and what this all means, because this has
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: less to do with sports and Trump than we all
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: think it is, but a lot more concerning the deeper
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: you look. So I decided to make this a separate
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: in some ways, a separate deep dive. So let me
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: get a few questions in. We'll wrap up this episode
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: and you guys can dig into my special two part
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: series here on everything we know and don't know about
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: that Mark Walter, Iiger and Kushner Lakers transaction. So let
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: me get to a few of your questions. First one
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: here comes from James and he writes, hey, you're Texan
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: living in France. Here again go Mustangs and still chasing
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: the five timers club. Well, I appreciate that, James. After
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: hearing your discussion of the Save Act, I wondered, why
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: doesn't Congress vote on more clean, standalone bills instead of
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: bundling unrelated or controversial provisions together. Wouldn't that make for
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: better legislating and make it clear where each party actually
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: stands on issues like voter I do things as always, James, Well, look,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: that would be cleaner for all of us to absorb.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: But the way politics works is you hope you can
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: get people to vote for stuff they don't like if
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: it has stuff that they do like in it, right, So,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: you know, it all depends on how you what is
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: the best way to get legislation passed? You know a
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: lot of times you take something popular and then yet
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: attach a whole bunch of stuff underneath it that is
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: less popular, but you hope to sneak it through. I
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: can make an argument of why you need a system
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: that allows for that, because there are times that people
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: want things to happen but need political cover and maybe
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: don't want to be for it, but maybe it can
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: be for a larger thing, Right, there's there is a
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: good rationale for having it like this. Sometimes you know
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: something can't pass and you're trying to do political messaging,
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: but you lead with something that you think could pass standalone.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: Save Act is a classic one of these things. What
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: they're really trying to do is basically try to set
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: back one political party's attempt at sort of understanding how
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: the system create a system that benefits one party for
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: a small period of time. It would only benefit them
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: probably for half one election cycle, which is what you know,
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: if it actually became laws. This isn't going to become law.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: They just were hoping we're a talking point. Maybe they
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: thought it would help their base. You know, again, we
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: have to have a crisis for that kind of for
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: Congress I actually come back and do something. And the
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: thing is is that even though Donald Trump claims it's
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: a crisis and even don't there allowed people that support
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's worldview, while people have growing doubts about the
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: system thanks to the rhetoric. There is no actual systemic
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: issue here other than manufactured distrust. Right, the biggest problem
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: with trust in our voting system is not the system itself,
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: it's how the system is being characterized by people in power.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: So that's a much harder thing to fix. It's why, Look,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: I don't most a lot of states have voter I D. Anyway,
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: to me, if you did voter IDA standalone and you
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: really wanted it, you could get bipartisan support and you
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: have it a bipartisan standalone bill, you make it happen.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: But it tells me that nobody's really serious about voter
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: I D because that was never attempted here. But your
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: a larger question about why don't we have more standalone
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: There are a lot of conservatives who would rather more
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: standalone votes like that, a lot less would get done.
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: That's the one problem with that, because if every vote
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: is standalone, then every vote is very sort of in
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: the spotlight, and you're going to get judged on that
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: singular vote. So I think that's why you don't and
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: why we're not going to go there. Next question, where
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: are we here? Chris from Roscow, Illinois and on al
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: he's sixteenth Congressional district. Here he says he's a four timer.
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: If I've read this, okay, welcome four timer, Chris. A
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: few weeks ago you asked for my list of the
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: biggest presidential blunders of the last one hundred year. So
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: here it is Nixon's Watergate, Trump's Iran war in January sixth,
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: Lbja's Vietnam escalation, George W. Bush's Araq war binds Afghanistan
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: with drawn concerns about his fitness number six, and JFK's
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: Bay of Pigs number seven. I'd love to hear what
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: you agree or disagree with. Keeping the great work and
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: go packers. It's a pretty good list here of true
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: presidential just blunders themselves. At do you put McKinley and
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: the main in there? In the Spanish American War? Is
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: that a full on blunder?
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: Is it a blunder what Andrew Jackson did with the
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve? I don't know you could, but anyway, I
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: and where would you rank Bill Clinton deciding to have
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: an affair than intern it's a presidential blunder, it's a
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: personal blunder, right, But I guess we were trying to
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: separate professional decisions versus personal decisions. Iran Contra was a blunder.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: That's another one that I might include on there. But
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: these are pretty good. I mean, it's funny. I don't
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: know if Watergate number is number one for me.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: As much. It's shiny.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, boy, Iraq war looks worse and worse all
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: the time because of it. Just sort of it's essentially
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: our reaction to nine to eleven. We've just we've made
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: more mistakes than we have. You know, there have been
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: more mistakes than there have been successes post nine to eleven,
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: and I think we haven't fully come to grips with
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: that that we've made a ton of mistakes. The Iraq
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: War was one of those mistakes. The creation of the
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: Department of Homeland Security was just done, done in haste,
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: by the way, it proof that in the Patriot Act,
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: anything we try to do quickly usually is a mistake.
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: And our initial reactions after nine to eleven just have
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: not been And it's just let us down. This never
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: ending war, a never ending concern about what role do
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: we have in the Middle East and all of that.
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: It just so I wonder if just one hundred years
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: from now like all the Middle Eastern wars will be
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: like in number one of presidential blunders. Right collectively obviously
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: may have pigs shirt me belongs in there, and January
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: sixth might belong at number one as well. A presidential
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: inspired insurrection is a pretty bad, pretty big blunder, that's
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: for sure. Then again, it was political success for him,
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: right if not for January sixth, does he get back
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: into office? There's an uncomfortable question to live with.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: Huh.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: But look, all of yours, all of yours belong on here.
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: But the question I wonder if you know right now
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: because boomers are still one of the bigger boomers, and
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: x are still one of the bigger memories of Vietnam.
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: We have Vietnam escalation here, I think, I think Vietnam
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: recedes in importance and in blunder over time, still will
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: be seen as a blunder, still certainly had a huge impact.
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: But the twenty first century wars will all be above them,
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: is my guess. All right, final question on this pod.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: Chris K. Wrights, Hey, Chuck and team. Big fan of
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: the pod.
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: I've covered Kansas politics for forty three years at ANBC,
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: and I can't remember a Kansas Democrat with as much
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: potential as Hamilton Adam Hamilton, the Methodist pastors the Democratic nominee.
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: He'll need huge margins of Johnson County and to keep
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: losses manageable in western Kansas. But do you think this
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: could finally be the year Democrats become truly Democrats become
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: truly competitive state wide? Or is Kansas still just too red?
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: Take good care and keep up the great work. Look, Chris,
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: I think there. I think it could be now. I
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: think Kansas could have gotten there faster. I think this
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: is a twenty thirty two or twenty thirty six project.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: I think Kansas could have gotten there faster had it been, say,
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: the midwestern state that Democrats decided to put early on
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: the calendar.
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: This is the.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: If I would have done something differently, if I would
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: have made the if I were in the DNC shoes,
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: And I'm not right, but if I were in their shoes,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: I had to put Kansas, not Michigan as Midwest test
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: simply to start this process. It is a winnable state.
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: It is a gettable state, but it needs a little TLC.
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: It needs a little more Democrats getting to know more
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: parts of the state. I don't think you can power
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: this on Johnson County plus the plus Topeka, which tob
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: the and the two college campuses counties. Right, you need
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit more than that, so, you know, more time,
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: more sort of Kansas branding. But I'll tell you, you know,
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: I think this is this is going to be a
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: We know this is going to be a single digit race.
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: We know this is a race it's probably more likely
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: to decide by five points or less. And once you're
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: inside of five points or less, anything can happen.
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: We're already there.
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: The question is whether a Hamilton win would mean that
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: we should put Kansas on the on the battleground map
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: in twenty eight I'm not quite there, but but I
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: think we're closer. You know, it's interesting, I think we're
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: You could make an argument that long term Kansas is
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: a better investment for Democrats in Iowa. I get they
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: have a short term opportunity here in Iowa, but long
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: term Kansas might be the better presidential state.
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: That would be my that would be my small analysis there.
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: All Right, With that, I ended up doing what was
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: going to be one giant episode with my Mark Walter
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: Deep Dive and all this, it was gonna be one
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: big thing. I decided to split this up into a
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: couple of different We're doing that as a special report,
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: two part series that's sort of going to sit outside
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: this podcast, so do take a look. But I wanted
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: to make this all digestible. I really hope you take
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: the time to understand why this Walter Lakers story matters
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: so much. It's almost nothing to do with the future
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: of the Lakers, but everything to do with the future
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: of your retirement. And that's probably the best way for
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: me to sell why you should care about this story.
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: And with that, I'll see in about twenty four hours
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: for the Super Tuesdays.
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: Thanks very much,