Latest / Luke Thomas Gets Political (LTGP) / Polls Show MAGA LOVES the Iran War | Luke Thomas Gets Political

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Polls Show MAGA LOVES the Iran War | Luke Thomas Gets Political · Luke Thomas Gets Political (LTGP)

• 0:00
  Guys,
• 0:02
  there is no real anti-war right in this
• 0:04
  country. I I know you're hearing a lot
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  of chatter online about this, like, oh,
• 0:09
  like the right is up in arms about being
• 0:11
  betrayed by the president. A core
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  campaign promise that he made was that
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  he was going to for sure.
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  No new wars, certainly no war with Iran,
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  and now they're all feeling betrayed.
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  Well, he did betray some of them. There
• 0:23
  are some principled conservatives. I I
• 0:26
  know that uh Ross Alpha, for example,
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  had a conversation with the guy who runs
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  the American Conservative magazine. Guys
• 0:30
  I follow like Sager Enjetty over at
• 0:33
  Breaking Points. I think feels deeply
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  betrayed. So there are some folks, a
• 0:37
  very very small number, there are some
• 0:40
  folks on the right who have maintained a
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  principled commitment to being anti-war,
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  but it's not the majority of them. And
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  in fact, it's not even close. Take a
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  look at this. Look at this here from CBS
• 0:52
  News and Yuggov which is a you know
• 0:54
  pretty reputable polling firm. US taking
• 0:58
  military action against Iran by party.
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  Approve and disapprove. Dems as you can
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  see 90% against 10% for Indies about 2/3
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  not quite disapprove and then 37%
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  approve. But look at the Republican
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  side. 85%
• 1:12
  approve 15% disapprove. There's new NBC
• 1:17
  polling to this effect that came out
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  today as well. Now, they kind of tease
• 1:21
  out a little bit of a difference between
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  folks who identify themselves as
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  right-leaning but not MAGA, but I don't
• 1:26
  really know how representative that is
• 1:28
  within the broader voting populace. And
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  again, there other polling that kind of
• 1:32
  indicates, this is not the only one that
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  indicates this, that there's just
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  widespread support for this. Look at
• 1:39
  this other tweet that comes from this
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  creature here as well. you're seeing
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  just pretty clear data at this point
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  that there just isn't a in any way a
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  robust anti-war right, there isn't any
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  way to say that there's a robust
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  movement within the right to be
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  anti-war. And it got me to thinking,
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  not only are they not anti-war in this
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  particular case, right? They they they
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  don't believe in anything. They don't
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  have principles about anything. The
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  right gets so mad when you call them a
• 2:09
  cult in the support of Trump. But truly,
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  like a huge chunk of the right just
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  believes that whatever Trump does on day
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  one is great, even if on day two he
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  changes. Oh, that new thing that could
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  be in total opposition to what he just
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  said, now that's great, too. Or bad,
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  depending again on what Trump says. It's
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  a cult. It's a cult. They don't live on
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  a compound. That's true. But it's a
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  cult. If if if a person can absolutely
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  betray a core campaign promise that was
• 2:41
  fundamental and ideal to to or I should
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  say fundamental to the way in which they
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  had presented themselves to the public
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  and what they believed in and what they
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  what they stood for and what really
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  mattered to them and then just go
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  completely in the opposite direction and
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  then get support like this from a
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  polling standpoint. It's a cult. It's a
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  cult. This I've said it before, I'll say
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  it again. Trump derangement syndrome in
• 3:01
  2026 is the belief that Donald Trump is
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  anything other than a shitforrain scam
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  artist and liar. That's Trump
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  derangement syndrome is thinking that
• 3:11
  there's something else going on here 4D
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  chess or you know owning the libs or
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  some other kind of thing that they
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  imagine is happening in their sort of
• 3:22
  warped universe. But in reality
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  everybody with half a brain can see he's
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  a shitforain scammer. He's a liar. He's
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  dumb as a brick. And he'll just change
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  his mind in the most fundamental of ways
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  without explanation, without warning
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  because that's he doesn't he doesn't
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  believe in anything other than the
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  exercise of power as he sees it in that
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  moment over adversaries he decides are
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  worthy of his wrath.
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  I did some digging and I asked myself,
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  hm, what was the GOP support for the war
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  in Iraq? Now, of course, that's going to
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  change over time, too, right? But then I
• 4:00
  asked myself another question, which
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  was, okay, what was the lowest point for
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  GOP support for the war in Iraq? So, I
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  made a chart. Take a look at this now.
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  Cards on the table. I used Claude to
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  make this. And everyone's like, AI, how
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  reliable is it? I'm going to post, if
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  you're watching this on YouTube, I'll
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  put it in the comments. If you're
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  watching this on Substack, I'll link it
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  in the post itself. You can look at the
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  data and you can double check everything
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  that I have here, but take a look at
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  this. This is basically Republican
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  support for the Iraq war from 2003 to
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  2015. And what you're going to notice
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  here is a few things. Number one, of
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  course, in the first year of the war,
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  basically 90% of Republicans said the
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  invasion was the right decision. Then
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  you have the Bush years. So you know
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  obviously 2003 to08 where the floor on
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  this so support of it is around 68 to
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  73% among Republicans. September of 2006
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  twothirds of Republicans roughly 68%
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  specifically still held a favorable a
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  favorable view of the war in Iraq. Even
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  of course national opposition was
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  solidifying by that point. Now there
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  were already cracks inside the party. So
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  by uh 2008, moderate and liberal
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  Republicans, about 40% were twice as
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  likely as conservative Republicans, 19%
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  to say the United States had made a
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  mistake in Iraq. But the real collapse
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  comes after Bush left office, not during
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  his presidency. So you had the the
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  percentage of Republicans calling the
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  war the right decision fell to an
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  all-time low of 58%. You can see that in
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  2013, that was March of 2013. And during
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  2003, by the way, the average across all
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  polls, as I indicated, was 90%. So, a
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  pretty big drop there. And then you can
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  see it bumps back up to around 61% in
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  March of 2018. Now, you're looking at
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  that 40% uh in around 2014. Don't be
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  fooled by that. That floor is from a
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  slightly different question. So, only
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  40% of Republicans thought the war had
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  been worth fighting for. This is the
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  lowest figure on record for the
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  Republicans, but it uses the Chicago
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  Council's quote worth fighting and quote
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  framing, which is a harder standard to
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  maintain than the Pew standard of was it
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  the right decision question. So, they're
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  not exactly comparable. I did include it
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  because from a data standpoint it's
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  worth considering. But when you really
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  realize that the support question is the
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  one that you see in every number other
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  than the 40%. You come to a pretty
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  important and very basic conclusion
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  which is that think about what I just
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  showed you. At no point did the GOP
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  anywhere in this conversation ever from
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  2003 all the way to 2018 when when they
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  were asked about whether they supported
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  it. It basically for the most part never
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  got below 58%.
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  We are talking about an all-time human
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  rights calamity. We are talking about an
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  extraordinary military failure. We are
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  talking about the displacement of
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  millions of people, a reordering of
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  borders in the Middle East for a time
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  anyway when this ISIS caliphate was
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  being pushed through. We're talking
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  about the deaths of 5,000 American
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  servicemen and women. And I could go on
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  about the different ways in which there
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  was just, you know, total damage. You
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  know, obviously the destruction of
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  Baghdad and large swaths of Iraq and,
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  you know, again, setting ISIS free and
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  you name it. They never got below
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  basically basically 60%. Bush was in
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  office. It was closer to 70% all the way
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  to 2008 and 2009.
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  They fundamentally believe in war as
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  long as their president is doing it.
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  Certainly, they believe in it. It is a
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  party that does not have a real
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  significant anti-war bone marrow and it
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  doesn't necessarily have while it has at
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  the top few media boosters who have some
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  visibility and I'm sure that there are
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  some people some principled
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  conservatives who are going to say hey
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  not me I I definitely am not this way
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  yes of course it's not a 100%
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  mathematical arrangement but you get the
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  idea now there is one difference between
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  this and I found this kind of note
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  pretty interesting which was that this
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  is the only time if you want to consider
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  like to what extent the parties were
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  more aligned with military support or
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  military military failure failure excuse
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  me Gallup from 1968 and 1969 showed that
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  the opposition to Vietnam was basically
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  identical across all parties so 51% of
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  Democrats 55% of independents and 56% of
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  Republicans called it a mistake so in
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  Vietnam you had a little bit more
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  unimity and uniform responses
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  across all the different political persu
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  equations. By the time you get to the
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  precursor to MAGA, which was certainly
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  the George W. Bush administration,
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  and then now what you get to MAGA, they
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  don't believe in anything but war. They
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  believe in war. They believe in
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  conflict. They believe in might makes
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  right. It's why they wanted to go into
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  Venezuela and just take out their
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  leader. They might go back and do more
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  of that, by the way, based on what we're
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  seeing. It's why they want to take
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  Greenland. It's why they want to take
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  Canada. It's why they want to go on wars
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  of conquest. It's why they want to bully
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  any kind of entity that they can. They
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  believe might makes right. They believe
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  in the power of the sword or should I
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  say the power of the bullet. They don't
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  believe in diplomacy. It's why the Trump
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  in the first term pulled out of the
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  JCPOA. It's why continuously you see
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  them not looking to make peace deals and
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  why instead they just want to work on a
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  some kind of top- down controlled spoil
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  system to have vassal states that can do
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  what they want. This is what they
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  believe. This is fundamental to what
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  they believe. in the midst of one of the
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  most insane crises I'd ever seen in my
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  entire adult life, the war in Iraq and
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  the way in which it collapsed. The vast
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  majority of the GOP has never abandoned
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  support of that. Not by any measurement
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  of polling that we have. It doesn't
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  exist. Why would the Iran war be any
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  different? There is no anti-war right.
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  There are individual figures, maybe some
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  smaller, irrelevant institutions on the
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  right that are fundamentally anti-war,
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  but as a broad consensus, it doesn't
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  exist, and it hasn't for a truly long
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  time. Again, this is still early
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  polling. Who knows how long this
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  conflict will go? Some will come along.
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  Some will change. These numbers won't
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  hold static forever. But I just want
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  everyone to be clear about the stakes
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  involved and what it's going to take to
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  actually repair this country. There are
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  going to be some folks on the right that
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  are getable. There are going to be some
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  folks on the right that can be
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  convinced, but it's never going to be
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  the majority. It's not going to be the
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  the the the largest amount of them. The
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  real coalition is going to be whatever
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  version and whatever portion of that
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  population is willing to make sane and
• 10:58
  rational decisions along with
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  independence and the left. That's it.
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  That's the ball game. These people, the
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  vast majority of them cannot be reached.
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  There's no level of failure they won't
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  tolerate or look the other way on as
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  long as they feel like this kind of
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  military adventure represents a certain
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  kind of American musculature and
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  bullying and wararm mongering for the
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  sake of might makes right. As long as
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  they see themselves expressed through
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  this mission, they'll never turn on it.
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  They never turned on the war in Iraq.
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  It's a known failure as a consensus at
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  this point and they never turned on it.
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  They never turned on the war in Iraq.
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  What more of an indictment about their
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  judgment could there possibly be? What
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  more could possibly be said about their
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  inability to grasp what the problems are
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  and how to solve them and the nature of
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  what military force can do under what
• 11:57
  restrictions and how it should be
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  applied. They don't believe in anything.
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  They don't believe in anything other
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  than might makes right. It seems like an
• 12:05
  overly simple calculus. It's really not.
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  The data speaks to it very clearly.
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  Let's see if this changes over time.
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  Let's see if there's some kind of big
• 12:12
  departure. But as it stands, understand
• 12:15
  the math for what it is. If you want to
• 12:17
  build an anti-war coalition, yes, accept
• 12:20
  as many of those from the broadest array
• 12:22
  of ideological tents as you can. The
• 12:24
  more the marrier. Certainly, it will
• 12:26
  improve the effort. But waiting around
• 12:29
  on the right to get to help that is a
• 12:31
  waste of time. and treating discussions
• 12:34
  like there a there's a real anti-war
• 12:37
  force within this party is an illusion.
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  It doesn't exist. It hasn't for a long
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  time and it may not ever return. Stop
• 12:45
  waiting on something that's not going to
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  be there. How this changes over time,
• 12:49
  your guess is is as good as mine. I
• 12:51
  guess we're going to have to see. But
• 12:52
  the reality is you do not have to
• 12:54
  indulge in any kind of fictions about
• 12:57
  the anti-war right. They don't exist.