Latest / The Front / Labor’s by-election bloodbath

Transcript

Labor’s by-election bloodbath · The Front

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Kristin Amiot.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: It's Monday, February tenth. The Federal government has committed to
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: keeping twenty thousand public servants on the payroll, but a
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: new analysis by the Parliamentary Budget Office suggests that will
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: leave an eleven billion dollar sized hole in the budget.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Now the opposition wants Labor to show its working. That
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: exclusive story is live right now at the Australian dot
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: com dot au. The estranged husband of missing Lennox Head
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: mother Bronwyn Winfield, is trying to sell his home and
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: it's got her brother worried he's about to skip the country.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Andy Reid raised his concerns in a letter to the
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: New South Wales State Coroner, Teresa O'Sullivan in December. John
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Winfield denies any wrongdoing. Rising crime and the crippling cost
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: of living have dealt Victorian labor a potentially devastating blow.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: It's a situation the federal government and the opposition are
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: watching closely as an election looms. That's today's episode. When
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: The Australian's Victorian editor, Damon Johnston called up the state's
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Electoral Commission to inquire about the status of the vote
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: count in the Werribe by election on Sunday. He was
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: told counting will resume at nine am on Monday morning.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: For Victorian Labor, it was a prolonging of the agony.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: It's been a bloodbath for the Victorian Labor Party in
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: their once heartland seat of Werriby.
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: It was a very dirty Saturday night.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Now that doesn't mean they're going to lose the seat,
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: but what it does mean is that they've suffered a
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: double digit swing, probably between ten an eleven percent on
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: a two party preferred basis, and that has taken a
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: seat that they've held since nineteen seventy nine.
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: They've never lost it to the brink of defeat.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Residents of Werribe, in Melbourne's outer western suburbs, cast their
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: votes on Saturday in a by election triggered by the
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: resignation of long standing Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallace in December.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: It's one of the fastest growing local government areas in
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: the country and voters didn't miss their opportunity to send
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: it the Victorian Labor government, headed up by Premier just
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Into Allen, a message.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: This has happened because the voters in Weerribee, Labor voters
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: in the main have felt neglected and it taps into
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: that broader sense of discontent in Labour's heartland electorate for
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: the government. They feel the crimes out of control, the
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: cost of living, local roads or a problem, and they
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: brought the baseball bats out on Saturday night and gave
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: the Labor government a real whack.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: When counting paused on Saturday night, the Werribee race was
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: on a knife's edge as the parties more than ten
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: percent lead deteriorated just center. Allen told party faithfuls it
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: was too close to call. The state opposition isn't getting
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: ahead of itself either.
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: Now. The Liberals still believe that the seat is not theirs.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: They are concerned that they might fall just short as
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: at Sunday lunchtime. There is no counting Sunday afternoon, but
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: they believe they may fall a couple of hundred votes short.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: Now it's important to note that the voters didn't necessarily
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: jump to the Liberals in Werribee. While the Liberal vote
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: did increase by a few percentage points, most of the
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: disaffected Labor voters went to independence, and those preferences are
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: now flowing to the Liberals in part hence the line
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: ball down to the wire position the electorate is in.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Damon. Jacinta Allen has taken up the Victorian premiership not
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: only after Dan Andrews's long tenure, but after more than
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: two decades of Labor leadership. There's a state election coming
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: up in twenty twenty six. What does this swing against
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: labor in Werribee mean for her as premier end for
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: her government?
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Do you think inevitably the backlash against labor has to
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: be interpreted as a backlash against Jacinta Allen.
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: She's the leader. She conceded today that she has to
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: take responsibility for the result. She's also conceded that her
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: government needs to.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Listen more and do more on issues like crime and
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: cost of living.
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: By elections are an opportunity for communities to send a
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: MESSI and to make sure their voice is being heard.
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: And what comes with the privilege of being in a
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: labor government is the opportunity to support what you're being
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: told by working people and families.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: She's now been in office as leader for over a
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: year and this is the first time voters have had
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: a chance to really pass judgment on her and it
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: was damning. In my view, this will inevitably spark some
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: internal reflections within the alp And caucus about whether she
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: is the right person to lead the party into the
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty six election. I don't think there will be
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: any immediate move on Allen. However, if there was another
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: by election in the next six months that also went
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: as badly as this one in a key Labor seat,
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: then I think some tensions might come to the surface.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Victorian Labor has been protected for decades by US so
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: called red wall in the outer western suburbs. Their seats
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: like Werribee that until Saturday have been safely held by
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Victorian Labor through election cycle after election cycle. But as
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: the tide turns against Labor governments around the country, that
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: era could be coming to a close.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: Labour's Red Wall at both the state and federal level,
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: has been under siege now for some years. However, this
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: is the first time it's been really penetrated. It's fair
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: to say that Labour's wall is crumbling as we speak.
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Labor strategist and polster Cosimaris has described it as more
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: of a barbed wire red fence and says that the
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: mood is on for Labor voters to vote against the ALP.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: What's happened in Werribee is quite historic. Even if they
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: hold the seat, they have made their intentions known and
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: I think any Labor in P who holds a once
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: safe seat at either a state or federal level should
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: now consider their electorates to be marginal.
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: In the West of Melbourne, at the.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Same time Werriby locals were casting their votes, a by
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: election was also happening in the inner city suburb of Pran.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: That vote was triggered by the resignation of MP Sam
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Hibbins from the Victorian Greens in twenty twenty four.
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: The Victorian Greens have been rocked by a sex scandal
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: that's forced a married MP to step down. Deputy leader
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: Sam Hibbins breached party room rules by having an affair
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: with one of his staffers.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: By lunchtime on Sunday, Victorian Green's leader Ellen Sandel conceded
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: her party couldn't win this one. I think in the
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: federal election and the state election next year, we're going
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: to see really positive results and we're going to win
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: this seat back based on the numbers that are simply
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: in front of us New opposition leader Brad Batton, who
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: was installed following a rocky couple of months for the
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Victorian Libs, said the election of Rachel west Away was
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: a boon for the party.
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: But here in Peran, we are very proud to declare
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: that we can claim victory in a seat that many
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: didn't think was possible just three or four weeks ago.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Labour didn't contest the prime by election, but Damon reckons
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: the result there could be a sign of things to
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: come at the federal level.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: Clearly the Liberals are back in town.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: Peter Dutton has pegged the outer suburban voters to be
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: his target audience.
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: For the next federal election.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: He'll be looking at this and thinking, on one level
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: it's positive, clearly there's dissatisfaction with Labor. But if he's
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: honest with himself, he'll be thinking the Liberal Party have
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: still got a lot of work to do to ensure
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: that those angry Labor voters actually support the Liberal.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Party coming up. What a turning of the tide in
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Werriby means the federal government. Greg Brown is one of
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: the Australian senior federal politics specialists. He ring around Parliament
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: to find out how members of both the major parties
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: are feeling about Werriby on Sunday.
• 9:25
  Speaker 6: Well, it's to be expected. It's been played down by
• 9:28
  Speaker 6: labor circles and being played up in liberal circles. That's politics.
• 9:32
  Speaker 6: What has been interesting is there are concerns within labor
• 9:37
  Speaker 6: MPs about how the labor brand is faring in Victoria.
• 9:41
  Speaker 6: And what they're concerned is that people in these kind
• 9:44
  Speaker 6: of working class areas, the outer suburbs, are feeling abandoned,
• 9:49
  Speaker 6: particularly by the state government. But what they're worried about
• 9:53
  Speaker 6: is while a lot of the damage has been done
• 9:55
  Speaker 6: by the state government, their view is that people just
• 10:00
  Speaker 6: want to blame labor of all persuasions, and they're worried
• 10:04
  Speaker 6: this could hurt them at a federal level. One thing
• 10:08
  Speaker 6: that an MP said that is really concerning is while
• 10:12
  Speaker 6: constituents know that crime is fundamentally a state issue, they're
• 10:18
  Speaker 6: just so angry with labor that they're raising it with
• 10:21
  Speaker 6: federal MPs quite a lot.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, something that we saw in Weerribee was that this
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: wasn't an and hasn't been yet, an out and out
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: victory for the Liberals, and in fact, the votes that
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: were lost by Labor appear to have at least in
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: part gone to independence. So do you think we could
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: see a similar trend at the federal election.
• 10:46
  Speaker 6: That would be worried for the Liberal Party if that
• 10:48
  Speaker 6: took place, they'd really be wanting those votes themselves. And
• 10:52
  Speaker 6: that's something that Labor and PAS have raised as when
• 10:55
  Speaker 6: they say that people that are on the side of
• 10:58
  Speaker 6: nothing to see here the votes and go to the Liberals.
• 11:01
  Speaker 6: And the other thing they're saying is that this was
• 11:04
  Speaker 6: really a referendum on the state government without another choice really,
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: whereas they're saying that the federal election is different because
• 11:16
  Speaker 6: you're not just sending a message to Anthony Albanesi, you're
• 11:20
  Speaker 6: making a decision between Anthony Albanesi and Peter Dutton. It's
• 11:24
  Speaker 6: also been pointed out that by elections can be an
• 11:28
  Speaker 6: unreliable predictor. Before the twenty nineteen election, Bill Shorten had
• 11:32
  Speaker 6: some very significant by election wins in the seats of
• 11:36
  Speaker 6: Longman and Bradden, and then he went on to lose
• 11:39
  Speaker 6: both of those seats in the next federal election and
• 11:42
  Speaker 6: he obviously lost the election. So there are people within
• 11:46
  Speaker 6: labor circles saying that there shouldn't be too much to
• 11:50
  Speaker 6: be read into this, but in the liberal camp and
• 11:53
  Speaker 6: some in the labor camp as well, they believe that
• 11:56
  Speaker 6: it shows that the labor brand is on the nose
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: and that crime. While it's usually a state issue, I
• 12:02
  Speaker 6: think the Lips are really going to try and turn
• 12:04
  Speaker 6: this into a federal issue as much as possible.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Greg Brown is a federal political specialist with The Australian
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: and Damon Johnston is our Victorian editor. You can read
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: all their reporting and analysis of the fallout from the
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Werriby and Prime by elections right now at the Australian
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: dot com dot au