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Florida Polling Which Might Interest You · Conversations: Special Guests with Preston Scott

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: And it's the third hour of the Morning Show with Me.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Not the official title, but it'll work. I'm Preston. He's Jose.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Great to be with you, friends. It's a show fifty
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: three seventy nine, and it's time to visit with our
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: friend from the James Madison Institute. He's the president. He
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: is doctor Bob McClure. Doctor McClure. How are you.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: I'm doing well, my friend. How are you?
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: I'm doing okay. I you know i'd be lying to you,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Bob if I said that. I'm not getting a little
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: angry at our lawmakers because I think they're really hurting
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: all of the progress made in Florida. And so I'm
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: just curious what your take is of where we are
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: with the session. My views are well known to the listeners,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: but I'm curious what yours are.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Well. You're definitely correct on at least the damage to
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: the brand, and by brand, I mean the movement conservatism
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: that has blessed this state for the last thirty years.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: There's real damage there. I don't have a crystal crystal ball, Preston.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure where it ends up, but we have
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  Speaker 2: a governor who has been very clear about what he
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: wants to do and how he wants to do it.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: But we have three co equal branches of government. But
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: my concern is we have a House that has decided
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: to side with maybe some non traditional conservative constituencies like
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: trial lawyers. And that's the concern. That's the real concern, Preston.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: And it happened so quickly after the great two years
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: of having Paul Renner as Speaker of the House and
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: the speakers before that, And so we have to really,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: we and the Senate and the governor really have to
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: hold this house hold them accountable for doing the right things.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: We can get here by accident. As a state, this
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: is a thirty you know, we were over took us
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: thirty years to become an overnight success. And side battling
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: up to trial lawyers is what you know. If you
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: remember the Republicans of DC before Donald Trump always used
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: to say, if we could just be nicer, if we
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: could just be uh, you know, coexist with the left,
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: they'll like us more and then we'll be able to
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: work together. That's not how this works. And we're seeing
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: the same thing happen in the state.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: You know, it was interesting I read a short piece
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  Speaker 1: from the Tampa Bay Times where they quote Danny Perez
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: is calling Governor Round de Santus is seventh grader, ostensibly
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: for not being willing to sit down and talk about
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the budget when it's really their job, along with the Senate,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: to deal with that and then present something to the governor.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: It's it's it's it's so unbecoming, and it's I'm let me,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: let me use this to segue into our topic, which
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: is the polling that you guys have just released, which
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: is fascinating. Do you think that a year from now,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: if if the Republicans continue on this slide in the
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: House and Senate, that this polling will be very different.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think there's always that issue because
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: here's the thing that has gotten Florida to where it
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: is today. And I've said this before on your show.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: Good policy is good politics, right, And so you look
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: at the presidential race that was a policy driven race.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: You didn't have to vote for Donald Trump, but you
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: knew exactly where what he was going to do if
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: he was elected. Three or four things. Nobody could ever
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: tell us what Kamala Harris was going to do. She
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: was from a middle class family, something about she she
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: was really proud of her lawn when she was growing up,
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: and you know, nobody else knew what she stood for,
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  Speaker 2: and people made a choice. Donald Trump wins the popular vote.
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  Speaker 2: He wins all seven swing states, which is like winning
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  Speaker 2: seven different governors race. It's very hard to do to
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  Speaker 2: sweep that same thing has happened here in Florida. The Republicans,
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: because of their policies, universal school choice, the tax reduction,
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: fewer regulations, easier to start a business, those kinds of
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  Speaker 2: things have moved from a minority party twenty years ago. Preston,
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  Speaker 2: think about this. Susan McManus, who's a great friend of mine,
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  Speaker 2: University of South Florida political scientists, one of the brilliant
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  Speaker 2: Florida mins twenty years ago said the Republican Party was
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  Speaker 2: in danger of becoming a third party behind no party affiliation. Today,
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  Speaker 2: because of policy, they have one point five million more
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  Speaker 2: Republican folks registrations in this state. Yes, there's a chance
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: that they could blow all of this.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Levin passed the hour, Doctor Bob McClure, President James Madison Institute.
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  Speaker 1: Doctor McClure, is this polling that we're going to talk
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  Speaker 1: about is this an annual set of questions that you
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: throw out or what triggered this.
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  Speaker 2: We do a series of polling, series of polls me
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  Speaker 2: three or four times of year, and our polling questions
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  Speaker 2: are driven by primarily current events. So in this poll
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  Speaker 2: we did, we asked questions about what concerns you the most,
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  Speaker 2: what worries you the most, what issues are most important
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  Speaker 2: to you. We did polling on the governor's race, both
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  Speaker 2: in the Republican primary and the Democratic primary. So really, Preston,
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  Speaker 2: it's driven by what is happening today, because our effort
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: at JMI is to get a snapshot of what are
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: Floridians thinking about at this moment, because it allows us
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: then a bit of a roadmap to continue to move
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  Speaker 2: forward as a think tank.
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  Speaker 1: Let's take the broad view, the macro view. Before we
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: drilled down a little bit from your chair, When you
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: got the results back from the polling, what was the
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  Speaker 1: overall message that you took away from it.
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  Speaker 2: From the policy perspective, the overall message was that people
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: are still worried, very much so about the cost of living.
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: It's a real concern for Floridians. Now we've seen this
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  Speaker 2: addressed by the governor and the legislature and Donald Trump,
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  Speaker 2: and we see the numbers inflations coming down. Property insurance
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  Speaker 2: is stabilizing in the state, but Floridians are still you know,
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  Speaker 2: that's kind of a you know, people's opinions are kind
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  Speaker 2: of a lagging indicator, and we have issues like the
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: expense of housing and things like that. So people are
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  Speaker 2: very concerned about the cost of living in the state.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: That has to continue to be addressed on the governor side.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: What I'm found fascinating is that Byron Donalds and Casey
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  Speaker 2: Destantus are relatively even in the Republican primary until primary
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  Speaker 2: voters see that Byron Donalds has been endorsed by Donald Trump,
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: at which point he's up twenty five on Casey DeSantis,
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  Speaker 2: and most Republican primary voters don't even know he's been
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: endorsed by Donald Trump. Those were kind of the two
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  Speaker 2: most fascinating things I saw.
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  Speaker 1: What do you what do you make of it in
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  Speaker 1: terms of let's let's work backwards now from the Trump endorsement.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Is I mean, the power of Trump is pretty remarkable,
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: But is it more remarkable because he's a Floridian.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: No. I think it's well I think it's the power
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  Speaker 2: of Donald Trump. Love or hate this guy. He is
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  Speaker 2: a once in a lifetime generational politician. I mean, you know,
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: my hero is Ronald Reagan, and Donald Trump has transformed
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: this Republican Party in a way that is just unbelievable.
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  Speaker 2: Uh and his impromater is gold to Republican primary voters.
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  Speaker 2: I'm sorry to people candidates who are running in a
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  Speaker 2: Republican primary.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Do you think it matters that Hasey Desandas has not
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: officially declared?
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I do. I think that matters. I think it matters.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: And look, we're a year and a half out, and
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: you know how things go. You gotta you gotta, you
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: gotta declare, You've got to run campaigns, You've got a debate.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, the the the the history is littered with
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  Speaker 2: candidates who end up winning that no one gave a
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: chance to win. So there's a long way to go
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  Speaker 2: on this. Again, this poll is a snapshot of what
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: we're seeing today in Florida.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I want to drill down even deeper into the JMI
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: component of this moving forward. But before we do that,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: and as we wrap up this segment, doctor McClure, what
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: does Jason Pizzo's exit from the Democrat Party do for
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: the Democrat gubernatorial races.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: Well, I think it continues to be a disaster for
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  Speaker 2: the Democratic Party of Florida. Go back to our early
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: you know, early discussion this morning present. Good policy is
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  Speaker 2: good politics. Can you tell me what the Democratic Party
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: stands for in Florida? I can't weed. Maybe weed, maybe
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: radical abortion, I don't know. And and here's the thing.
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  Speaker 2: Here's the thing. As a as a the James Madison Institute,
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: as a truly nonpartisan organization, the Republican Party, the Democratic Party,
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  Speaker 2: it makes no difference to us. For us, it's a
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: set of principles. It's a set of principles that embody
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: free markets, limited government, personal respons responsibility, and the protection
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: of private property. So to say, you know, the republic
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  Speaker 2: to the extent that that those principles reside in Florida's
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  Speaker 2: Republican Party and basically have for the last thirty years,
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: that's where we land. But I'd be happy for a
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: second strong party in the state of Florida. But now
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: this party, the Democratic Party, is really in danger of
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: becoming a third part in the state of Florida behind
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  Speaker 2: the Republicans. No party affiliation MPAs and the Democratic Party,
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: and with Jason Pizzo vocally publicly leaving the Democratic Party,
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure where they go at this moment.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Talking with doctor Bob McClure, he heads up the James
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  Speaker 1: Madison Institute, you talked about that the polling gives your organization,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: doctor McClure, a leg up on understanding where the voters are,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: what they're thinking, what's most important to them. Now, how
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: does that impact you? For example, we have a budget
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: stalemate right now, which is a little embarrassing. I would
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: think to lawmakers, will jm I use this data to
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  Speaker 1: maybe share with them anything that's useful in their budget negotiations.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, President, and I would go a step further. One
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  Speaker 2: of the things that we know to be true. Two
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  Speaker 2: major issues came out of this polling. One is property insurance,
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: which I've already refted. We put in these reforms. We
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: being the state of Florida, put in these reforms two
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: years ago with Paul Renner as the Speaker of the House,
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  Speaker 2: and basically at the fifty thousand foot level, it rained
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  Speaker 2: in lawsuit abuse, aob abuse, and you know trial lawyers
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  Speaker 2: that come in after every hurricane, and so what they've
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  Speaker 2: done is it has brought down the cost of property
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  Speaker 2: insurance for consumers. That's what we should be focused on,
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  Speaker 2: is Floridians, not a spit match between the two houses
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: in the legislature or a spitting match with the governor.
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  Speaker 2: So we would use this. People are worried about property
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  Speaker 2: insurance and the cost of housing, Well damn. I rolled
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  Speaker 2: out two consecutive studies in the last month. Everybody can
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: see them at James Madison dot org on why housing
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  Speaker 2: is so expensive and lo and beholds. Surprise, surprise, it's
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: more often because of government. I mean, look, we live
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: in the capital city, Leon County. Try getting a building
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  Speaker 2: permit within a reasonable amount of time, right, So, it's
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: impact fees, it's permitting, it's land used, it's zoning, it's
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: all of those kinds of things. And there's a lot
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: that the legislature can do in the property insurance space
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: and in the housing space that the governor wants to do.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: The great debate preston about should we eliminate or reduce
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: property taxes that would help tremendously with the cost of housing.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: That's a complete major discussion that came out of this
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  Speaker 2: polling by two to one margin, Floridians would rather cut
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: or eliminate property taxes than reduce the sales tax, which
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: is what Speaker Perez has said he would rather do instead.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: So there's a lot of information here on housing, on
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: property insurance, and on that great property tax debate that
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: we can then use to go to the legislature, go
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: to the governor and say here's what we're seeing, here's
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: what the data shows. How can we help.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: What does your intuition tell you about the next session?
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  Speaker 1: I mean, other than the budget and waiting to see
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  Speaker 1: what the governor signs in or vetos that's presented to
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: him from the House and Senate from the session. This
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: session is largely in the rearview mirror. Now looking ahead
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: to twenty twenty six, Bob, what do you see as
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: maybe one or two priorities that James Madison will maybe
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: maybe you're not prepared to say what you'll advise or
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: what you'll suggest, but what you're looking at, well, I.
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: Think there's probably three areas, two on offense and one
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: on defense. Okay, One is the governor has made it
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: a point to enact a Doge style look at the
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: state budget, and we're going to work. You know, we
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: are working with him and with his folks to hopefully
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: find ways to continue to make government more efficient. So
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: we will have a whole series of recommendations over time,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: over let's say, pressed in the next six months to
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: help help with that effort. The governor has set up
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: a Doge effort, which is really important. And look, I
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: say this all the time. Florida is the single most
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: important state in the country when it comes to policy
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: and politics. When our governor has the vision to set
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: up something like DOZE in Florida, guess what. Georgia looks
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: at that, Arizona looks at that, Missouri looks at that,
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: and they say, Florida can do it, then we can
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: do it too. This is the story written large on
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: school choice, on eliminating the income tax. When Florida does it,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: opening the economy during COVID, Sure, Florida does it, Other
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: states follow. That's number one. The second issue is the
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: trial lawyers are coming back. They're going to come back.
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: They don't sleep and they've lost their bread. It was
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: taken away from two years ago in the way that
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: Renter and the governor, Paul Renner Speaker and the Governor
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: worked to eliminate frivolous lawsuit abuse, which was essentially about
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: a five thousand dollars tax on every Floridian.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Okay, we got about thirty seconds left.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: Defend against that.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: We got about thirty seconds left. What's the third?
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: The third is there are a lot of things that
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: can be done at the state level to bring down
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: the cost of housing. We really need to have this
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: discussion about the reduction or the elimination of property taxes
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: because cities are coasting on property values and increasing their
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: budgets magically as property taxes increase, and then we can't
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: continue to have that.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Doctor McClure, always a good visit. Thanks so much for
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: the time. We'll talk again next month.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: Thanks for having me.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Thank you, sir, Doctor Bob McClure with us from the
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: James Madison Institute.