Latest / The 5G Podcast with Fexingo: Wireless Networks, Carriers, and Mobile Infrastructure / Why Private 5G Networks Are Growing Faster Than Public Ones
Transcript
- Lucas: So you're in a factory that builds transmissions for electric vehicles. Every assembly line robot needs to coordinate movement down to the millisecond. Dropping a connection for even half a second could stop the line and cost tens of thousands of dollars. That's the problem public 5G networks were never designed to solve — and why private 5G is now the fastest-growing segment in the whole wireless industry. Luna: We're talking about companies essentially running their own mini cell towers, right? Not just buying a signal from Verizon or T-Mobile. Lucas: Exactly. By mid-2026, industry analysts count more than 1,200 private 5G networks live globally — up from under 200 in 2023. That's a compound annual growth rate of well over 50 percent. And the list of companies building them reads like a who's-who of industrial manufacturing: Bosch, Volkswagen, Siemens, John Deere, even a few port operators like the Port of Hamburg. Luna: I've read that the Port of Hamburg one covers several square kilometers and handles data from shipping containers, cranes, and autonomous trucks. That's not a small pilot project — that's a full production network. Lucas: Right. And that's the key distinction. These aren't lab demos. They're operational networks carrying real-time control data. Let's focus on one specific case that illustrates the whole trend: Bosch's factory in Stuttgart-Feuerbach, where they build fuel injection systems. They deployed a private 5G network in 2024, and by early 2026 it's running production line robots, AGVs — automated guided vehicles — and quality inspection cameras simultaneously. Luna: And they chose private 5G over Wi-Fi 6 or wired ethernet. That seems like a big bet. What made them go cellular? Lucas: A few things. First, predictable latency. On a private 5G network, once it's configured properly, you can guarantee end to end latency under 10 milliseconds. Wi-Fi, even Wi-Fi 6, is a shared medium — your latency spikes when there are too many clients or interference from neighboring networks. For a robot arm that needs to receive a 'stop' command within 5 milliseconds, that's a dealbreaker. Luna: So it's not about raw speed. It's about consistency. Lucas: Exactly. Second, mobility. AGVs moving through a factory floor need to hand off from one access point to another without dropping the connection. Wi-Fi handoffs are clunky — they often involve re-authentication, causing a hiccup. Private 5G uses the same handover mechanisms that a cellular network uses when you drive down the highway. Seamless, no interruption. Luna: And third, data sovereignty. The data never leaves the factory. That matters a lot for companies worried about sending proprietary production data over a public network. Lucas: Exactly. They control the core network on-premises. If they want to keep all traffic inside the building, they can. Now, the question everyone asks is: how much does this cost? A private 5G network for a medium-sized factory — maybe 50,000 square feet — typically runs between $100,000 and $1 million to deploy, depending on how many small cells you need and whether you use licensed or shared spectrum. Luna: That's a big range. And that's just upfront. There's also ongoing maintenance, spectrum licensing fees, maybe a neutral host partner. For a small manufacturer, that's a tough sell. Lucas: It is. But the cost is coming down fast. One reason is the availability of shared spectrum. In the US, the CBRS band — Citizens Broadband Radio Service at 3.5 gigahertz — lets anyone get a license for a specific location for a very low fee, around $150 per year per 10 megahertz channel. That's a huge deal. It means you don't have to buy expensive licensed spectrum from an auction. Luna: So the spectrum barrier — which used to be the biggest obstacle — is basically gone for private networks in many countries. The UK has similar shared spectrum at 3.8 gigahertz. Germany has local licenses at 3.7 gigahertz. Japan, Australia, they're all doing it. Lucas: And that's exactly why growth has accelerated. When 3GPP released Release 16 in 2020, it included features specifically for industrial use — ultra-reliable low-latency communication, time-sensitive networking. Then Release 17 added even more. But it's really the spectrum policy changes from around 2022 onward that unlocked the market. Now you have a whole ecosystem of vendors — Nokia, Ericsson, even smaller players like Druid Software and Celona — selling private 5G as a turnkey service. Luna: Let's talk about the neutral host model, because I think that's the piece that makes it viable for mid-market companies. Instead of building everything yourself, you let a third party — like a neutral host provider — deploy the radio infrastructure on your site and you pay a monthly fee. Lucas: Exactly. Neutral hosts are the reason we're going to see private 5G spread beyond the Bosch and Volkswagens of the world. Companies like Freshwave in the UK or Boingo in the US specialize in designing, building, and operating private cellular networks for enterprise customers. The manufacturer just needs to provide power and a bit of space. The neutral host handles the core, the radios, the spectrum, and the ongoing management. Luna: So the manufacturer pays an operating expense instead of a capital expense. That completely changes the math for a company with 200 employees and a single factory. Lucas: Exactly. And that's where the next wave of growth is coming from. By 2028, I think we'll see private 5G deployments in warehouses, distribution centers, even large retail campuses — not just high-end automotive plants. The technology is becoming an industrial utility, just like electricity or compressed air. Luna: It's worth stepping back and asking: is this really better than a well-designed Wi-Fi 6E or Wi-Fi 7 network? Because Wi-Fi is cheaper and already installed in most facilities. Lucas: For many uses, Wi-Fi is fine. But if you need guaranteed performance, mobility across large areas, and the ability to support hundreds or thousands of devices per access point, cellular wins. Also, private 5G can coexist with public 5G — workers can have one device that connects to the private network for work data and the public network for personal use, all on the same SIM. That's hard to do with Wi-Fi offload. Luna: Let's talk about one potential downside: vendor lock-in. If you buy a private 5G system from Nokia, can you later swap it with Ericsson gear? Or are you stuck? Lucas: That's a real concern. The industry is pushing for more interoperability through the o ran Alliance — open radio access networks — but we're not fully there yet. Today, most private 5G deployments are single-vendor because the integration is simpler. However, the core network — the software that handles authentication and routing — is becoming more standardized. I think within two or three years, you'll be able to mix and match radios from one vendor and the core from another. Luna: So the trend is toward openness. But the early adopters are accepting some lock-in in exchange for time to market. That's a classic innovator's dilemma trade-off. Lucas: Exactly. And the numbers tell you it's working. Private 5G revenue — including equipment, services, and spectrum — is projected to reach $6 billion globally this year, up from about $2 billion in 2023. That's a market that has tripled in three years. And it's still just scratching the surface of industrial connectivity. Luna: If today's episode was useful to you and you want to keep it ad-free, buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo helps. We don't run ads — that's a deliberate choice, and listener support is what makes it possible. Lucas: Yeah, it's a small thing that adds up. Appreciate everyone who does that. Luna: So where do you see private 5G going next? I mean, we've covered factories and ports. What about hospitals? Stadiums? Mining operations? Lucas: Hospitals are a huge opportunity. Think about it: a hospital has thousands of connected devices — infusion pumps, patient monitors, nurse call systems, security cameras, asset tags. Many of them still run on aging Wi-Fi or even proprietary RF. Private 5G can provide a single network for all of them, with guaranteed reliability and network slicing to prioritize critical traffic. Luna: And mining — remote mines in Australia and Canada are already deploying private LTE and 5G for autonomous haul trucks and remote drilling. The latency and coverage requirements are extreme. A mine pit can be several kilometers across and hundreds of meters deep. A private network using low-band spectrum can cover it with just a few towers. Lucas: Exactly. And there's the stadium use case. A venue like SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles has massive connectivity demands — tens of thousands of fans streaming video, plus operations like security and concessions. A private 5G network can handle that better than relying on the public carriers, who are often congested on game day. Several stadiums are already experimenting with neutral host private networks. Luna: So the common thread is: any environment where connectivity is critical to operations and where public networks are unreliable or insecure. That's a huge addressable market. Lucas: It is. And I think the next catalyst is the integration with edge computing. If you combine a private 5G network with a local edge server running AI inference, you can do real-time video analytics — for example, detecting defects on a production line as they happen and stopping the line automatically. That's the kind of application that justifies the investment to CFOs. Luna: You're talking about a closed loop: sensor data over private 5G, processed at the edge, action taken in milliseconds. That's not possible over a public cloud or a general-purpose network. Lucas: Exactly. And that's why I'm confident private 5G isn't a niche. It's a foundational technology for Industry 4.0. By 2030, I expect most greenfield factories — new factories built from scratch — will have a private 5G network as standard infrastructure, just like they have power and ethernet today. Luna: That's a bold prediction. But if the growth rate holds, it's not unreasonable. I'm watching how the mid-market adoption plays out — that's where the real test is. Lucas: Agreed. For now, the early movers — Bosch, Volkswagen, the ports — are proving the technology works. The next wave is about making it affordable and easy to deploy. And that's exactly what the ecosystem is working on.