Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Bloomberg's Riccadonna and Dean on Yellen and Dodd-Frank

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Bloomberg's Riccadonna and Dean on Yellen and Dodd-Frank · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: P and L is brought to you by proper Cloth,
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  Speaker 1: whether at the grocery store or the trading floor. Find
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  Speaker 1: the Bloomberg P and L Podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud and
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  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. I would like to get a
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  Speaker 1: better sense of what caused the bond market to make
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  Speaker 1: such a significant move yesterday following Jenny Ellen's testimony in
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  Speaker 1: front of the Senate UH Committee. I want to bring
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  Speaker 1: in Carl Rickadonna, chief US economist for Bloomberg Intelligence. Carl,
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  Speaker 1: I noticed that the probability of a March rate hike
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  Speaker 1: rose to from just two days ago. What do you
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  Speaker 1: think drove this move? This is a double whammy UH
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  Speaker 1: due to her remarks yesterday which really focused on the
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  Speaker 1: dangers of waiting too long, which is something we had
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  Speaker 1: actually heard from her on several prior occasions. So you know,
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  Speaker 1: was this an unjustified moved I to me, it looked
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  Speaker 1: overstated yesterday and you saw about a five basis point
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  Speaker 1: move in the tenure and then it kind of faded
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  Speaker 1: later in the day. Then this morning, this is the
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  Speaker 1: other part of the double whammy. You get this barrage
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  Speaker 1: of strong economic data. The New York Empire Survey was
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  Speaker 1: very strong, Retail sales were very strong. Cp I surprised
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  Speaker 1: the the upside. And so this all just seems to
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  Speaker 1: fall on. When it rains, it pours, right, Uh. And
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  Speaker 1: so this just falls onto the notion that the Fed
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  Speaker 1: is going to be forced to, uh you know what,
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  Speaker 1: maybe adhere to a tighter tightening schedule. Uh. Then uh,
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  Speaker 1: maybe they had preferred just a few weeks so or
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  Speaker 1: a month or so ago. I like that whammy. Can
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  Speaker 1: I add another whammy? All right? What are they going
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  Speaker 1: to do in March? They're gonna raise rates. I don't
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  Speaker 1: think they're going to move in March. I know the
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  Speaker 1: odds are increasing. We take no for an answer, all right,
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  Speaker 1: So move ahead? Sure, how many rate heights for the
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  Speaker 1: rest of the year. I still think it's going to
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  Speaker 1: be too now. It is subject to the data, and
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  Speaker 1: Cherry Yellen has made that abundantly clear. And if we
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  Speaker 1: really see a new normal for the economy which is
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  Speaker 1: vigor as opposed to sluggishness, then they could they could possibly,
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  Speaker 1: uh stick to that schedule of three. But I really
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  Speaker 1: think that that we have persistent sluggishness endemic in the U.
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  Speaker 1: S economy and that's going to limit them to two.
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  Speaker 1: I got it. So you think that you're gonna have
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  Speaker 1: two interest rate increases this year? Yes, if the composition
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  Speaker 1: of the border governors of the Federal Reserve changes dramatically
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  Speaker 1: and or we get a signal between now and let's
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  Speaker 1: say that second rate increase that you're describing, If we
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  Speaker 1: get a signal that Janet Yellen is not going to
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  Speaker 1: be around in two thousand eighteen on as chair of
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  Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve, what happens anything, Well, we are economists
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  Speaker 1: and Fed watchers will have to re evaluate the FED
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  Speaker 1: reaction function based on who's at the Fed. And if
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  Speaker 1: it's uh someone who is looking like the next chair
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  Speaker 1: is going to be someone more hawkish, then you have
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  Speaker 1: to reprice FED action as a result. Right, you know,
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  Speaker 1: it's interesting. Uh, your question, Pim really highlights one of
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  Speaker 1: the big tensions that Janet Allen is going to be
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  Speaker 1: facing today in her testimony as she did yesterday, which
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  Speaker 1: is the Fed's role in regulatory supervision of the banks.
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  Speaker 1: And I want to bring in UH Dean and Nathan Dean,
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  Speaker 1: who's the government analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, to give us
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  Speaker 1: a little bit more of a sense of first of all,
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  Speaker 1: what the significance is of Dan Trullo stepping down as
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  Speaker 1: a federalsor of governor in the upcoming months. Uh and
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  Speaker 1: and and two you know where we are with respect
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  Speaker 1: to the Dodd Frank overhaul and what the implications there
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  Speaker 1: could be. So the the earth of nation of Daniel
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  Speaker 1: Trula really takes away the point man on the subtle
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  Speaker 1: reserve capital requirements, the negotiations with Bossel and the International
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  Speaker 1: UH Capital Requirements Framework. And what it does is that
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  Speaker 1: it pushes him aside. It allows Donald Prompt to bring
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  Speaker 1: in this new vice Vice Chair of Supervision and Regulation,
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  Speaker 1: and it really negates any future rulemakings that we're going
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  Speaker 1: to see from the Fed. UH. You know, there was
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  Speaker 1: a lot of talk about, you know, will the Governor
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  Speaker 1: Trulo continue to negotiate, continue to sign up for more
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  Speaker 1: capital rules. Uh. And this really negates that. You know.
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  Speaker 1: It's interesting. Trula is on Bloomberg Television earlier today. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: and he highlighted, in response to a question of a
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  Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Televisions David Weston, that perhaps the net was
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  Speaker 1: cast too large originally with the Dodd Frank Act. Take
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  Speaker 1: a listen to what he had to say. The post
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  Speaker 1: U crisis regime, both supervisory and regulatory, that's been put
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  Speaker 1: in place in many instances cast the net perhaps too
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  Speaker 1: broadly or deeply. I've been particularly concerned with the impact
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  Speaker 1: on community banks. You know that the risk based capital
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  Speaker 1: rules had to be changed to take into account what
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  Speaker 1: the media that the big regionals and the largest banks
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  Speaker 1: were doing, But in the process, those same rules applied
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  Speaker 1: to community banks. Uh. Nathan, do you think that it's
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  Speaker 1: significant that Dan Trullo himself sees places where Dodd Frank
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  Speaker 1: could be potentially curtailed. Absolutely. And I think the debate
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  Speaker 1: that we're going to see over the next year is
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  Speaker 1: what's the scope of the curtailing or the weakening of
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  Speaker 1: these provisions. You know, the Photo Reserve has already taken
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  Speaker 1: steps to weaken the qualitative c CAR for banks between
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  Speaker 1: fifty and two and fifty billion. Bloomberg News obtained a
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  Speaker 1: memo about the next version of the Choice Act trying
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  Speaker 1: to do away with that qualitative c CAR. So I
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  Speaker 1: think what we're going to have to expect from the
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  Speaker 1: set over the next year. Maybe Jennet Allen will tell
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  Speaker 1: us a little bit more in this cestimony this morning,
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  Speaker 1: is what are her plans for the next year are
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  Speaker 1: she Is she going to be open to working with
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  Speaker 1: Republicans to scaling back down regulations for those fifty billion
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  Speaker 1: dollar size and banks, or is she essentially going to
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  Speaker 1: say that, you know what, I think what we have
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  Speaker 1: is appropriate right now and it will be up to
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  Speaker 1: the next said share in the next you know, Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump's appointees to take that further. Carvera Donna, I want
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  Speaker 1: to put to you a scenario in which we have
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  Speaker 1: anti regulation at the FED. We have the promulgation of
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  Speaker 1: the administration's view that regulations ought to be diminished. So
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  Speaker 1: you have that, plus you have a relatively easy money policy.
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  Speaker 1: Because let's speculate that there are business leaders who will
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  Speaker 1: be taking some of those positions on the FED Board
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  Speaker 1: of governors and they're gonna want easy money. Do you
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  Speaker 1: see that that is a possibility. I definitely think that
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  Speaker 1: the you know, the regulatory wave ebbs and uh and
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  Speaker 1: Wayne's over the course of the uh uh you know,
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  Speaker 1: the aftermastatic. So I know it has been on on
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  Speaker 1: the rise, and I think that we could see it
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  Speaker 1: retreat for a bit for the reasons you mentioned, Nathan,
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  Speaker 1: you agree, do and I think what's going to happen
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  Speaker 1: here is it's really going to be which bank is
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  Speaker 1: going to see the most regulatory relief. You know, there's
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  Speaker 1: this huge debate in Washington. Is it the small banks?
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  Speaker 1: Is it the big banks? You know, we just heard
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  Speaker 1: that comment about community sized banks. So I think the
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  Speaker 1: debate is going to be can the big banks essentially
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  Speaker 1: attached themselves to this wave of deregulation that right now
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  Speaker 1: is favoring the smaller ones. P and L is brought
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  Speaker 1: and have an oatmeal? Yeah? Yeah, and that's what That's
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  Speaker 1: what they've been bolstered by. UM. But when I look
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: at their earnings, on the face of it, it seems like,
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  Speaker 1: you know, they are benefiting from the fact that its
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  Speaker 1: revenue it's coming from these guilt free products. I want
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  Speaker 1: to be that in air quote. Yes I did put
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  Speaker 1: that in air. I mean, come on, and nothing's guilt free.
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  Speaker 1: You can always put guilter at anything. Can say food,
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  Speaker 1: beverage and tobacco analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, I want to
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: get your thoughts on Pepsi's results. High Lisa Sure, PepsiCo
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  Speaker 1: reported today another sound quarter. Um. You know, PepsiCo among
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  Speaker 1: the food beversbacal companies that I cover, seems to be
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  Speaker 1: the one that seems to be the most predictable, the
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  Speaker 1: steady grower, and this is just another quarter in that mix.
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  Speaker 1: UM down well, maybe a lot of those anticipated perhaps,
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  Speaker 1: um From a fundamental point of view, it's biggest drivers
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  Speaker 1: in North America are free to lay quaker that the
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  Speaker 1: beverage business collectively put up good numbers, you know, high
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  Speaker 1: single digit sales, high signle digit operating profits. It's really
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  Speaker 1: the non North America operations. They're having some currency issues
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  Speaker 1: outside you know, the US North America. But overall, you know,
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  Speaker 1: if you're a fundamental owner of PepsiCo, I think you
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  Speaker 1: had to be pleased with today's numbers. Hey, can can
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: I just ask you to give us a view of
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  Speaker 1: the industry right now? I mean, we got the results
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: from Dr Pepper Snapple this week. I want to know
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: what's going on with Most and Corps Brewing in the
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: wake of that whole beer market shake up and then
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Constellation brands with the Mexico can business. Sure, well, it's
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: a lot in there to unpack their pim. But do
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  Speaker 1: my best. You know, the beverage business is a steady grower,
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  Speaker 1: and you know, like I think, across all beverages, it's
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  Speaker 1: the alcohol beverages that are probably doing the best. It's
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  Speaker 1: still the craft distill business. The craft beers are still
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  Speaker 1: doing pretty well, they're getting a little more competitive. It's
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  Speaker 1: the non alcoholic side that, excuse me, growing a little
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  Speaker 1: more slowly. Some of the turmoil that the companies are
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: siting here is some of the uncertainties in Latin America.
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  Speaker 1: You know's just talk about a border tax. A lot
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: of these companies source goods from Mexico. Um. Well, Constellation
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: is Corona beer right in the United States. That's right.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: It's a big drive out of Constellation brands sales and profits.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: So if there's a tax imposed there, you know, that
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: could be uh, you know, an issue for them. They
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: have some strategies to mitigate that way they source goods
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: and so on. Um. But nevertheless, you know, you can't
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: scape a you know, attacks if there's one imposed on
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  Speaker 1: a big piece of business. Um. But you know what
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: about most and cores go there ken most of corps
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  Speaker 1: are still digesting, uh you know the full steak in
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: the essay b. Miller Um business that they got as
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: part of the inhazard bush Um deal with any relinquished
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  Speaker 1: their partnership steak. Those beers put up by most and
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  Speaker 1: corps tend to be slow growing because of the so
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  Speaker 1: called popular beers, not so much the Craft beers um
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  Speaker 1: that are really where the action is in the US.
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  Speaker 1: You know, you're talking about Middle Light and Coors Light
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  Speaker 1: and so they have leading shares, but they're just not
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  Speaker 1: growing as quickly. I think a lot of the millennials
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  Speaker 1: are moving to more um you know, exotic tasting richard
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: flavored beers. Well, I'm wondering if they're going to move
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: toward more exotic tasting mac and cheese. Kraft Hynes is
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  Speaker 1: going to be reporting today after the bell shares are
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  Speaker 1: up more than in the past twelve months. What do
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  Speaker 1: you look expecting real quick out of the earnings today.
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  Speaker 1: I think everyone's gonna be looking at the margins. You know,
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  Speaker 1: Craft is all about margin enhancement right now. They're on
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  Speaker 1: a tremendous sweeping cost cutting program. Uh, they're close to
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: meeting their two year target of cost cutting. We expect
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: at some point second quarter, maybe second half of this
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  Speaker 1: year for them to start looking to the top line,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: whether that's acquisitions, whether that's new products. But this this
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: quarter is all about cost cutting and how much more
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: they can boost operating margins. All right, well, we're gonna
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  Speaker 1: be looking for that. Look for the earnings. The estimate
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: is for earnings of eighty seven cents. We'll be bringing
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  Speaker 1: that to you, of course, as soon as it is
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  Speaker 1: released for craft Hines. Thanks very much for joining us.
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  Speaker 1: Kenna sha is food beverage tobacco analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast.
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  Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud,
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