Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | Game 2? 3?| NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/22/26

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Wednesday BEST BETS | Game 2? 3?| NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/22/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: next have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browins hat Man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the Slump series, the slump discontinues, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point, other than potentially end
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: it all. What's up? Everybody's towed back with you, toadstool Sports.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, I think April twenty second, whatever it is.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: We went two to one and one on the show
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: yesterday Cincinnati Reds. Nice win from them, I mean it
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: helped that we also got I believe four home runs
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: from Steer in the game, tying the MLB record for
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: most some runs by a player in a game with
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of different guys, Mike Cameron the one that
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I probably remember the most from my younger days, Cincinnati.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: That game was a blowout, dude. I mean they were
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: winning the game. Like when I first even checked on
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: the game, they're already winning, like nine to two. I'm like,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: all right, I guess we won that one. They were
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: up eleven to two, twelve to two I think in
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: the ninth inning, and then the Cincinnati bullpen kind of
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: tried to blow it and they wound up only winning
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: twelve to six. But whatever. The under also hit. Both
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: baseball plays won yesterday. Surprisingly on my playoff plays did
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: not do as well the under in Dodgers Giants won
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: even though Yama Moto got tagged for three runs in
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: the first inning. I'm like, this is insane. Giants already
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: up three to nothing. Well, guess what. The Giants offense
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: is so bad they didn't score again in the entire game,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: and the game wound up I believe being a three
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: to one final, So I'll take it whatever. And then
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay in hockey they won, so we pushed that bet.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: If you went all money line it you actually got
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: the win. It was close to I think it went
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: into overtime, I want to say, and they had to
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: get the win in overtime. Two overtime games in that
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: series so far. I thought it would be an easier
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: win for them. They got off on the right foot,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: they were winning the game early, but they just never
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: were able to amass any sort of lead in that game.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's hockey, but whatever, you know. I thought that, yeah,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: there was a decent chance that thing was gonna push.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: I thought there was almost no chance they were actually
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: gonna lose that game, but they were losing two to
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: one later in the game, and then Houston Rockets. You
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: want to see the fucking box score on this Houston
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Rockets here? Hold on, Oh of course, my h what
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: is going on here, dude? You can't even see anything
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: here my screen sharing. I don't like this at all, dude. Yeah,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: there we go. Stream Yard is just messing up. You
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: want to see the box score for this Rockets game yesterday?
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: It was the exact same thing as the first game.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Kevin Durant did play. The money came in on the Rockets,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: so the market was agreeing with me. The line was
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: up to six, so we got a good number on
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: this thing. Look at this. The same thing happened again
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: in this game. Houston had seventeen more field goal attempts
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: at this time, not twenty seven this time, but seventeen.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: They only shot forty percent from the field. The Lakers
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: hit almost half of their three pointers. They hit thirteen threes,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: and the Lakers got the benefit of getting sent to
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: the line more. It's just such bullshit, dude. The Rockets
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: won the rebounding battle again. The Rockets were the better
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: team in the game. They had more possessions in the game,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: and they still lost the fucking game. My handicap was
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: not wrong in this game at all. I'm telling you
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: that right now. I'm extremely pissed off about it. It
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: should have been a win with the Rockets based on that,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: based on the stats in that game. Two games in
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: that series so far have been unbelievably misleading. And by
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: the way, the Rockets are like a double digit favorite
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: right now in Game three. There is no way they
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: should be down two in that series right now. They've
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: been the better team in both games, except for the
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: fact that they can't hit a fucking shot at all
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: against the Laker defense. It's not even good. It makes
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: no sense whatsoever. That loss was bullshit. Uh Like, I
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: think the worst handicap that I had yesterday was the
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay hockey game. That was worse than the Houston one.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to telling you, man, my NBA hockey,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: I know what the fuck I'm doing. Like, these zigzag
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: spots are very very strong. Yeah, that's all I have
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: to say about it. Tyson, what's up, Kyle, what's up?
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out all right, Let's go to today
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: we have Major League Baseball, we have afternoon baseball because
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: some of these teams are traveling and have to play tomorrow.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: I took a look at, like, are there any look
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: ahead spots or anything like that. I don't really see
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: much of that going on here, so I'm just trying
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: to handicap the matchups pretty much. I only have one
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: baseball play today. I am gonna have one hockey play
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: and one NBA play, and hopefully the zigzags are gonna
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: work out for us here because my NBA playoffs usually
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: I do really well. And we're already we're owing one.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Despite being really really selective, I'm not happy about it.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: One on one in hockey so far, I think all right.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis and Miami Baseball, this is a split series
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: so far. Miami won the first game, Saint Louis won
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: the second game. Bullpen usage yesterday. Miami used two relief
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday, not bad. They have the better bullpen as well.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis used four relief pitchers, so Miami is going
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: to have a bullpen edge here. They're actually still fifth
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: in bullpen whip. Surprisingly maybe Saint Louis in the bottom
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: third of bullpen. They're not good in the bullpen. Miami
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: has been a decent offense as well, at eighth in offense,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: better than Saint Louis at seventeenth. So I think you
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: do have to give Miami the edge in both of
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: those departments. I think you might have to give him
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: a starting pitching edge too, because you know, I don't
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: like Kyle Lahey pitching for the Cardinals. Here. These are
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: not good numbers here, five point two, one point five
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: to three whip. He was actually okay in his last
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: start because he got his walk number down. He didn't
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: walk anybody, and that was an over that we still
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: won on because the starting pitching was iffy enough and
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: then the bullpens were bad, so we did get the
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: over in that game anyway. Lay Hey overall, though he's
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: given up more than one hit per inning, thirteen to
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: eight strikeout walk ratio nineteen innings, not a high strikeout rate,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: still too many walks. I'm not gonna really be able
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: to trust him. Miami has barely seen him. Though Miami
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: has four at bats against him, only three hitters have
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: faced him. They're zero for four with a strikeout against
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: him and no walks. I don't think that really means
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: a whole lot, though I would not want to bank
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: on lay. Hey here, Jansen Junk is pitching for the
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Marlin's Here is it Junk Yunk? I don't know, it
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: might be Yunk? Actually Jansen Yunk. This guy four point
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: five ERA and one point three to two whip. That
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: whip is not very good, Uh, putting a few too
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: many guys on base. But overall, when you kind of
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: look at his numbers, there's nothing really egregious here. His
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate isn't that high. Fifteen and twenty two innings,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: twenty three hits isn't great, but six walks that's not horrible.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: He's like a serviceable pitcher. Although Miami's lost the last
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: three outings that he's had, he started to allow a
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: few more runs in those outings, more ground balls than
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: fly balls, though. I mean, yeah, I don't think he's awful.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: And Saint Louis has never faced him before. Maybe that
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: gives him a little bit of an extra edge. Is
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: either start or really totally trustworthy? Probably not, But I
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: think Miami they're the better team here. This is a
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: INEVID series. Miami lost yesterday. I believe is what I said,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Miami has the more rested bullpen, the better bullpen, probably
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: the better offense as well. The money's coming in on Miami,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: I probably think, like I think Junk is a bit
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: more trustworthy than lay Hey, Miami up to minus won
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: twenty eight. I don't feel that strongly about it, but
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: I'll lean to Miami here. Sixty nine percent of tickets,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash on Miami, so the
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: money does seem to agree with that, all right. Cincinnati
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: and Tampa Bay. We did get the win with Cincinnati
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: yesterday basically a blowout, and now Tampa is trying to
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: avoid the sweep here, so you know, I like to
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: look for teams that are trying to avoid a sweep,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: especially at home. Tampa Bay is favored here, though they're
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: favored for a reason. Cincinnati, I think they're a little
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: bit fraudulent, to be honest. They're atop the NL Central
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: right now with the Saint Louis meeg second. No, I
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: think the Cubs and the Brewers and maybe Pittsburgh probably
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: are all better than those two teams. I expect Cincinnati
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: to fall off at some point here. I don't know
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: if it'll be here they do have Detroit next. Maybe
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: that is somewhat of a big series to look ahead
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: to another interleague series. But when you've already won the
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: series against Tampa Bay, you might overlook them. I think
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay maybe he is getting a little bit overlooked here.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Tampa did you's four relief pitchers just and They're bullpen
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: is not good. Their bullpen is a disadvantage. As I
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: mentioned yesterday. Cincinnati's bullpen wasn't exactly great yesterday they used
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: three relief pitchers, but they do have the better bullpen,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: a little bit more rested as well. Cincinnati's bullpen where
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: are they at the thirteenth now in whip which isn't great,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: but better than Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay's twenty second with
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: a much worse RA as well. Hitting wise, Tampa does
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: have the edge here. They're twelfth right now. In offense,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: their offense has been pretty decent. Cincinnati's has been a
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: bottom tier offense despite that outburst yesterday. And I think
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: you might get a pitching edge with Tampa Bay here
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: as well. Brandon Williamson for Cincinnati, I just I can't
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: trust him four point three five VRA one point three
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: to five WHIP. That's not awful. He's been decent outside
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: of his first start, which wasn't very good. Since then,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every outing,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: and the Reds have actually won all three of those games.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: But I would dial it back a lot on that
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: because he has more walks than strikeouts in that span,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: and in fact, over the course of the entire season
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: twelve strikeouts thirteen walks in an extreme fly ball rate,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed many hits fifteen and twenty and two thirds innings.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: But these stats are not good, dude. This is not
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: trustworthy stuff at all here. I think Nick Martinez is
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: the better pitcher. He's the more proven pitcher throughout his career.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: His numbers are definitely better two point four or five ERA,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: one point two to three WHIP in his first season
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: with Tampa, I believe because he was on the Reds,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: which is interesting, which I'll mention in a minute. A
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: couple of concerns here with the Martinez He did walk
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: three apiece in each of his last two outings. That's
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: not great, even though he hasn't a lot more the
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: tour in runs in any outing. The wildness concerns me.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: A little bit. His strikeout rate is not high fourteen
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: and twenty two innings, only twenty hits allowed though seven walks. Yeah,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: it's a few too many walks again because of what
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: he did in his last two outings. The other arm
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: with them would be his numbers are actually not good
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: when he's faced these REDS hitters before twenty two at
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: bats not a big sample. Seven to two strike out
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: walk ratio that's not bad, but three eighteen batting average
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: oney eleven ops that has me worried. Now, Martinez, like
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: I said, he was on Cincinnati last year, the last
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: two seasons, and he was not bad for them. Really,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: I think he might get up a little bit extra
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: for this game. So that is part of the handicap
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: when a team lets you go, especially for a starting pitcher,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: right because the pitcher has like the most impact on
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: the game. He might come out with like a little
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: bit extra motivation, you know what I mean, like a
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: little bit of extra intensity, come out here, want to
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: beat the team that decided that they didn't want to
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: keep them, you know what I mean that he wasn't
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: good enough, So I think he might get a little
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: bit extra excited to pitch against his former team Cincinnati
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: here they're trying to avoid the sweep as well. Like
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I said, I don't love his matchup numbers, but I'm
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: gonna lean towards Tampa Bay and this one. Where is
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: this game? Yeah? Here it is. The money is agreeing
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: with me on this. It would be money line Tampa
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Bay for me. Here they're minus one thirty one, sixty
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: four percent of tickets ninety five percent of the cash
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: on Tampa Bay. So the money is agreeing with me
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: on that. Hopefully I'm picking the right game to play today,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: man in baseball, because I only have one play and
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: this one. I really the only thing that's keeping me back,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: like they're holding me back from this is Martinez. Matchup
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: numbers against Cincinnati here just not great. That's like the
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: only thing that's keeping me away from that. I think
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay's got the edge throughout that game. Houston at Cleveland.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: These teams have split the first two games. Cleveland won
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: yesterday eight to five, bounced back after Houston had a
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: bounce back in the first game. Now, Houston, their bullpen
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: is bad. We know this has been making fun of
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: it all year. So far, they used four relief pitchers
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: yesterday as well, which is not great heavy usage. Cleveland
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: did use a lot too, They used like five relief pitchers.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: I would not want to trust either bullpen in this game.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's is a little bit better fifteenth than Whip, but
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: their ERA is over five, which is pretty bad. Houston's
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: is even worse. They're a bottom three bullpen. I would
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: not disagree with fading both bullpens in this game. As
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: far as the offense is concerned, Houston's has been good.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: They're still second in ops. They can definitely score runs
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: and they can hit, surprisingly because it seemed like their
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: offense wasn't going to be that good this year, but
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: the pitching has been their huge issue this year. Cleveland,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: their hitting has been okay. They're fifteenth right now, so
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: you could see some runs in this game. So I
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: started looking at this game. My feeling was leaning towards
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: an over. In this game, Lambert is pitching for Houston.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: He only has one start under his belt so far.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: He went five innings against Saint Louis, alloted four earned
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: runs on seven hits. That's not good. That's not good,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: but eight strikeouts one walk actually is pretty good. So
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: he wasn't actually that bad in that game. And I
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: know I gave you guys the over in that game
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: and we did get the win with it. The bullpens
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: helped us out. Both starting pitchers got damaged enough that
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: we were able to get the over in that game
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: somewhat easily. But I don't think Lambert was as bad
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: as he looked. Now. I know I was questioning him
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: because he's twenty nine years old. His career has never
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: really taken off. I don't know if maybe he had
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: injuries of derailed or what, because I remember I looked
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: him up and like back in the day, he was
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: drafted as like a pretty high draft pick by Colorado,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: but he just never panned out. So I don't know, man,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, I still wouldn't really trust him, but his
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio was really good in that opener there
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: against or in his first start of the season against
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis. Cleveland only has nine at bats against him.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Four of their hitters have faced him before five to
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: two strike out walk ratio. They have a one to
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: eleven average, only one hit a single from Hedges three
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: eighty four batting average or excuse three eighty four ops.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: Batting average would be really good three eighty four ops,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: so all of that. But it doesn't look that bad
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: for Lambert in this game, I'll tell you that. So
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know. That has me kind of dialing it
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: back on liking the over here a bit. Tanner bib
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Cleveland. He has not really returned to
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: that sort of ace caliber pitcher that he was that
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: one year, a couple of years ago, two years ago.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Actually he was really good twenty twenty three and twenty
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: twenty four. So I don't know what's going on with him. Man,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: as he's taken steps back the last two seasons, it
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: looks like so far, I don't know what's going on
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: with him. He did just pitch a six inning shutout
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: though against Baltimore, and really he's only had one awful
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: start at Atlanta. But overall his numbers they're a little
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: bit questionable. Twenty three strikeouts in nine walks is not
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: the greatest ratio, and twenty eight hits allowed in twenty
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: four and a third innings that's not great. He walked
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: too many guys in his last outing, but it was
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: a shutout against Baltimore for six innings. Three walks. That
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: was the one drawback of that start. But maybe you
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: can argue that he is kind of getting into better
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: form here. The walk's a little bit concerning, though. The
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: other concerning thing is he's not that good against Houston.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: In sixty four at bats sixteen to three strike a
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. That's good, but two ninety seven batting average
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: eight twenty eight ops. I don't think I trust those numbers. Uh,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: this game, it's an interesting one. Cleveland is sitting at
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty five on the money line here, eighty
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: three percent of the tickets ninety nine percent of the
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I don't think I buy that. I
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: buy the Cleveland is a public side here, though I
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: think I still am probably gonna lean over here. I
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: think you know, Lambert is still definitely in question. Baby
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: looks a bit questionable as well as matchup numbers don't
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: look that good. The bullpens I think are definitely fatable here.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: I think over probably is the preferred approach here, but
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: I don't feel that strongly about it. Eighty nine percent
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, ninety four percent of the cash on
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: the over there total actually dropped a bit to the
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: eight it's still basically in no man's land, though eight
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: and a half two is not a huge move. Do
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: with that information what you want. I don't have a
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: good feel for the side really at all, though, Like
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Biby is obviously the more proven pitcher here with more upside,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: but Cleveland's a public side. I could potentially see Houston
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: being able to beat him, you know. I think if
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: you wanted to go Houston, though, I would only go
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: first five innings. I would not rely on their bullpen.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: But I don't think Lambert is trustworthy enough to want
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: to rely on him either though, So like I said,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: I think Over is probably my preference there. Baltimore at
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Kansas City. ESPN Unlimited has this one and MLBtv because
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: all the games are on MLBtv. These teams have split
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: the first two games. But what's good for Kansas City
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: is they just ended a long losing streak. They lost
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: eight or nine games in a row. So now the
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Mets and the Phillies are the teams that can't win
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Kansas City with a win that ends that losing momentum.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: Man so that is big. A lot of times when
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: a team ends that long losing streak, it you know,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: gets that chip off their shoulder whatever, and they could
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: just play looser, play better. So that does help Kansas
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: City that they won yesterday and finally got back on
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: the winning side. Now. Bullpen wise, Kansas City's bullpen has
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: been very bad this year. They used three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: which isn't too bad. Baltimore also es three Kansas City's
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: bullpen they've been a disaster though. They're actually the worst
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: ranked bullpen in both Whip Andy Ira, which is it
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: really kind of shocks me because their bullpen was pretty
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: solid last year and they don't have that different of
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: a bullpend this year. I don't think maybe Zach can
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: tell us if he's out there. The Royals offense has
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: also been struggling this year. They're twenty sixth in ops.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: That's not good at all. Baltimore's had the better offense,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: although they haven't been that good. Actually they're at twentieth
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: right now, though I think they do have a more
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: packed lineup though Baltimore does. Baltimore's bullpen has actually been
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: really good. I forgot to mention their fourth whips, So
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Baltimore I think does have a bullpen edge and a
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: hitting edge here. Do they have the starting pitching edge here? Though?
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: I don't really think so. You know, I'm not a
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: fan of Chris Bassett, and he's not pitching well this
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: year at all. Six point one to ninety ray really
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: really bad. Two point one to three whip putting two
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: plus guys on base per inning. That is really crazy.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: He's gone sixteen innings, He's allowed twenty three hits and
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: eleven walks on top of that and seven strikeouts. This
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: is not good, dude, not good at all. I kind
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: of raised the alarm on Bassett last year, and the
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: professionals were really liking Bassett for a while last year,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: and I was like, not, I don't like him. He
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: was good at home last year, he was bad on
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: the road. But guess where he is today. Yeah, he's
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: on the road today, So that's not good for him either.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: His numbers against Kids A City, however, are actually pretty good.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: In fifty four at bats, thirteen to six strikeout walk ratio.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: That's not very good, but one forty eight average allowed
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: is pretty good in four thirty seven ops. Maybe best
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: at his trustworthy a little bit more in this specific matchup.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: But I still don't know if I would trust him.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: He is facing Michael Walka, who is definitely the better
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: pitcher overall. Waka. I mean, these are really good numbers
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: this year for him. They're unsustainable, but he has been good.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: One ERA point seven to eight whip. Obviously those numbers
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: are gonna go up, but he's been good. He's allowed
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: no more than tour in runs in any outing, and
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: that was his last outing against the Yankees, where I
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: believe we had a winner on the show on the
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: under in that game. He's got a twenty three to
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: eight strike out walk ratio, only thirteen hits allowed in
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: twenty seven innings. Nothing really dislike about what we see
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: out of him here, except the fly ball rate is
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit concerning, especially given that in Kaufman Stadium
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: here they move the walls in a little bit, which
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: it still kind of remains to be seeing how much
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: of an effect that's really gonna have. Waka against Baltimore,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: he does have good numbers and fifty at bats, eleven
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: to three strike out walk ratio, two hundred average allowed,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: six oh five ops allowed. So what do we do
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: with this game? Because it looks like the matchup numbers
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: are actually pretty good the total is high. It's at
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. I don't really know why, because
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: even though Bassett, yeah, he is a concern on the road,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: his numbers are really bad this year. I don't like
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: him at all. I don't think he's trustworthy. You know,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: I'm probably kind of leaning under in this game though
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: you got two offenses that really haven't been doing that well.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: But the under is obviously concerned too because Kansas City's
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: bullpen has been an issue. Bassett is very untrustworthy, you know.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: Maybe the best approach actually is to go Kansas City
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: first five innings. That might be better, although I could
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: see Bassett pitching well in the game too. I think
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna go under, you gotta go under first
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: five innings here, and you'll get a good number on it,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: probably like four and a half five, Even I don't
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: hate that. Maybe Kansas City first five innings run line.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Maybe to be winning after the first five makes a
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: little sense as well, because again I still don't trust Bassett,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: don't trust him on the road, don't trust him this
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: and Walka is more trustworthy. Kansas City minus one thirty
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: is the price here. Sixty seven percent of tickets ninety
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on Kansas City. Both pitchers
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: have good matchup numbers, but Waka is just the more
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: trustworthy pitcher, So the money is agreeing with the Kansas
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: City side and the over for what that's worth in
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: that game. But yeah, I mean, if I had a
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: preference here, I think it actually probably would be Kansas
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: City first five innings would probably be my preference in
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: that game, and just eliminate their bullpen because it sucks
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Toronto at Anaheim. Anaheim has lost four games in a
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: row now, so they're trying to avoid a sweet peer.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: These teams might play tomorrow, though let me say no,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: they do not, so Toronto might overlook Anaheim here. This
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: is the last game of the series. Toronto has already
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: won the series. They play Cleveland next on Friday. I
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: don't know how big of a deal that really is tomorrow.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: You know, we have a shorter MLB card tomorrow, but
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: we'll get to that when we get to it. I
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: don't like either of these bullpens, Toronto and Anaheim. As
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: I mentioned yesterday, I think the game did actually go
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: under yesterday, even though my preference was the over. Toronto
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: diduce five relief pitchers, but Virelind only through one pitch.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: He might be available again. Although they use him today,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: they'd be using him three days in a row and
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: flew already through only seven pitches, so their bullpen's not
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: like totally used up. But they deduce five guys yesterday.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Maybe they were eating some five guys sandwiches in celebration,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: some burgers there, burgers and fries. Anaheim only us three
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, so their bullpen is a little bit
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: more rested. But they're not a good bullpen. They're at
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: twentieth right now and Toronto's not much better at sixteenth.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: This is based on whip, so you have two bullpens
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: that are not very trustworthy here, at least at this
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: point in the season. Offensively, Anaheim has been the better offense.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: They're tenth in ops right now. Toronto hasn't been that
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: great at nineteenth. Granted they've had some of their best
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: hitters being injured. Eric Lower pitching for Toronto. He was
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: really good for them last year, but this year has
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: been really not good. A seven point one to three
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: ERA one point four to seven whip, that's some bad stuff,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: but he kind of dive into his numbers here. You know,
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: really he only had one really really bad start against Minnesota.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: Other than that, you know, not great, but like tolerable
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: numbers otherwise, except the strikeout walk ratio is still bad
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: overall though sixteen to ten that's not good. Only sixteen
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: hits a lot on seventeen to two thirds innings, that's
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: not bad. Fly ball rate, I don't like that, you know,
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: I kind of like ground ball pitchers better, even though
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: they also pissed me off when they outpitch what their
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: whip says that they should be. David Peterson, I'm looking
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: at you. Although I think he's hurt right now. Lower dude,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know what it's gonna happen with lower here.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: I think he's not as bad as his season numbers looks.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Let's just put it that way. I think we could
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: at least say that based on what we saw last year.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's as good as last year. Though
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim's numbers are pretty good in twenty seven at bats.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: It's not a huge sample. Five to three strike out
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is not very good, but one to eighty
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: five batting average allowed six thirty seven ops the ops,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: maybe getting a little skewed because Solaer has a home
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: run off him, But yeah, overall he might match up
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: okay here, but he's gonna have to somehow outpitch Jose Soriano,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: who's been elite this year so far, five and zero
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: with a point two eighty ra uh. You got to
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: be kidding me with these numbers. Point seven to three whip.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know about this man. I mean Soriano. Last
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: year he was an absolute disaster at home. The year
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: prior to last year he was actually pretty good. You know,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: maybe he is a good pitcher man. I don't know.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: It's tough to say, Like, does somebody just start becoming
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: an elite pitcher at the age of twenty seven? I
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: don't know. But this season has been really good except
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: the walks or his one issue. He's gone thirty two
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: and two thirds innings so far, eleven hits allowed. He's
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: been basically unhittable, thirty nine strikeouts really good as well,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: an extreme ground ball rate as well. All that looks
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: pretty good to me, except for the thirteen walks. Gotta
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: get that under control a little bit. He's walked three
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: or more guys in three of his five outings. That's
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: not good. But Anaheim's won all five of his starts
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: and he's literally allowed one run on the entire season. Yeah,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: that's good. And he's faced some pretty good offenses in there.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Toronto actually does not hit him well. In twenty five
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: at bats nine to three strikeout walk race here, two
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: hundred batting average allowed five twenty six ops. That's some
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: good stuff here. Now, if you want Soriano, the number
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: did actually drop a bit down for minus one ninety
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: to minus one fifty five here, seventy seven percent of tickets,
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the cash on Anaheim. You know,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: Anaheim's trying to avoid the sweep. Peer they do have.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Their pitcher has been the best, their best pitcher this
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: year on the mound. I know Soriano was completely untrustworthy
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: at home last year, but I probably would not disagree
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: with Anaheim in this game. I mean, you could go
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: first five if you wanted to, but I think they're
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: gonna give you a full game of effort to try
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: to avoid the sweet beer. So I don't hate Anaheim here.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: I would not disagree with the first five under either. Now,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: the totals at eight for the full game, which is
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: pretty low. Uh, fifty nine percent of tickets is seventy
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on the over. This is
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: kind of a hitter friendly stadium by the way, So
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: eight is pretty low for a game in Anaheim, especially
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: with you know, at least kind of capable offens this year.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: But I would go first five innings because I would
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: not want to have anything to do with these bullpens.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: So I would lean under first five and Anaheim full
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: game money line probably or maybe split bet run line
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: money line. Find your run line out there. I don't
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: want to do anything with the game. Though this game
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: is not on my card. I don't think it's good enough.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: But those are my thoughts about it. SOB, what's up man?
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Thanks for coming back to the show Man. It was
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: a while before you reappeared yesterday or the day before
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: that or whatever. Sorriano, you think he's on steroids or something.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: I have no idea, dude, I don't know, because he
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: did show signs of being a really really good like
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: strikeout pitcher and stuff like that. Like I said, like
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: if you look at his twenty twenty four season, I
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: think it was what it was. You can kind of
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: see that there was something there, So I don't know.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: This next game up is actually my play. So the
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: late afternoon game is where we're gonna have the baseball play.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: A's at Seattle. Let's do it this one. I think
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: we kind of have the biggest advantage just throughout the
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: game of the pitching whatever. We're gonna have to find
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: a way to kind of go hefty price on this.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: We're gonna be on Seattle here. I know we're going
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: back to the well. I think Seattle. They're one of
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: the teams that's underperformed the most this year. Like they're
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: not this bad of a team at all. Like, I
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: still think they're definitely a contender to win this division.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: I think they're a contender in the American League. Still.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: The way I'm recommending to do this is a split
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: that partially on the minus one and a half run
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: line at plus one twenty three, partially on the minus
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: one eighty six money line. I know it's a bit hefty,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: these are the numbers that I came out to here.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: If you're trying to win one hundred on it eighty
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: three basically, if it would be on the money line
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: part of it, which would give you, you know, like a
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: forty four forty five in return, and then you put
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: that amount on the plus money side of it, so
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: at least if they win by one, you'll get your
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: money back. No, I didn't look because I'll update this
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: in the description like I did last night. By the way,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: there was a seven and a half out there at
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: like a minus one thirteen or so on the under
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: that I gave out yesterday on the Giants Dodgers game.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: Of course, I'm glad it didn't matter. You could have
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: gotten the seven and still won on it. But I
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: did find a seven and a half on it, which
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: I said you possibly could, so you know, I update
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: the description if I change, you know, if I like
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: find a better on number there or not. You know,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: I'm but you know, I kind of have to stick
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: to what I give out on the show. But because
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: everything is based on what is the number right now
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: in the morning, sometimes I might recommend that maybe you
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: should wait and look for a better number, And that's
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: what I did with that one. Now, this does amount
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: to a minus one twenty eight minus one run line,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: So you know what I'm gonna look right now in
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: DraftKings and just see if I'm allowed to even say
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: that the Crown, let's call it the Crown DK whatever.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna look right now at the alternate run lines here.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: Just see what their number is on the minus one
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: run line and see if it's better than the minus
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: one twenty whatever. I'm guessing it's not going to be.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Their money line on the game is worse. So let
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: me see here alternate run line. You might be able
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: to find it in a different book better. Yeah, they're
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: minus one is minus one forty, So swimming the bet
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: is the better approach, man, because you can use multiple
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: books for it. So that's what we're gonna do here.
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna get into handicap now. But yes, I like
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Seattle in this one. Unfortunately we did not get to
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: the better number. He hopes. I'll leave it up while
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: I talk about it. We didn't get to the minus
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: one fifty five here. They're up to minus one eighty
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: now basically higher than that eighty four percent of tickets
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of the cash on Seattle. Yeah, I
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: mean it is getting to a point where you might
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: have to lay minus one and a half run line
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: on it. But I think the minus one yeah. I
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: prefer the minus one though, even though you're paying a
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: little bit more juice for it, because we're looking at
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: a game in Seattle where there might not be a
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: lot of runs here and you might not get Seattle
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: batting in the ninth inning, you know what I mean.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: So I think this might be a little bit of
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: a better approach here. But I like this for a
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: number of reasons. First of all, Seattle is the better team,
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: and they're at home, and they're trying to avoid getting
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: swept by the A's and they're actually behind the A's
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: and the standings. And again, I don't think Seattle's actually
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: the worst team here. The Oswigers are telling you they're not,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: as they've been favored in every game in the series.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: So Seattle, Yeah, they're gonna be highly motivated to avoid
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: getting swept here in the series. So I think that's good.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: The A's have kind of already accomplished their goal here
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: by winning these first two games. Seattle ten seide get
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: like they're pitching at their best at home as well,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: so we're going with that as well. As far as
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: the bullpen usage, yesterday, Seattle used three relief pitchers, but
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: most of their best relievers are pretty much available here
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: today except for Bizardo, who did get used yesterday. But
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: I think their bullpen is the better bullpen anyway over
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: the A's, who also used three relievers yesterday. I'm gonna
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: definitely prefer Seattle's bullpen here. The A's bullpen has not
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: been particularly good here. They're at twenty first. I know
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Seattle is nineteenth in whip, but their era is a
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: lot better than that. Seattle, I don't think their bullpen
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: is as bad as where they're ranked here right now.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: I do think they are indeed the better bullpen, and
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: we kind of saw that last year, and they have
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of the same guys in their bullpend, so
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: I do think the A's do have the better offense,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: though they're up to sixteenth, But we're in a pitcher
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: friendly park. I like good pitching to defeat good hitting,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: so I'm okay with taking the worst hitting team. Of course,
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Seattle is twenty third right now on offense, but I
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: really don't think they're that bad offensively, even though they're
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: what's offensive is there two nineteen batting average. Although I'm
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: a child of the nineties, man, I'm used to these
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: better batting averages. I'm like, what the hell are these
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: batting averages? Now? We're like two thirty whatever is considered
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: to be a good batting average. It makes no sense.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think Seattle is the lesser offense here,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: but I don't think it's by that much. And then
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: of course we have the starting pitching, which I think
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: is a big edge to Seattle. Aaron Savale he might
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: look decent here with a three point five for ERA,
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: and because yeah, I don't know he's I don't think
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: he's that good looking of a guy, but I don't know.
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: I'm not gay, so I have no idea. But I
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: meant his numbers is ERA three point five four doesn't
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: look bad. One point three to three whip though, that
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: indicates there's something a little bit off here. He's putting
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: too many guys on base, and in fact, he's been
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: a little bit too hittable along more than one hit
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: per inning. Sixteen to six strike out walk ratio is
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: not that bad, but twenty one hits in twenty to
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: third innings. He looks to be coming out of form
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: a little bit. After his first three starts were all
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: pretty good. He had a really ugly start last time
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: out against the White Sox, and there are two things
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: that it could be here. Now he's either falling out
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: a form here and that's pretty bad that it was
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: against one of the worst offenses, the White Sox. It
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: was at home, so you know that was his first
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: start at home, and this is of course not at home.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: We know the a stadium really bad for pitchers, especially
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: like Savale because he's a fly ball pitcher. Although he
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: actually didn't allow any home runs in that game, so
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: maybe it was that. Maybe it was pitching in that
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: stadium and this is a much more pitcher friendly stadium.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: But maybe he's coming out of form a little bit here, man.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Yes, the fact that he's a fly
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: ball pitcher that will play a little better in a
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: stadium like this where it's a deep stadium. But his
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: numbers are not very good against Seattle either. In forty
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: three at bats six to six strikeout walk ratio that's
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: not good, two seventy nine batting average, nine h two
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: ohps allowed Mitch Garver as two of them runs off
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: him and Julio Rodriguez five for twelve of the home
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: run so Savally has not been very good against Seattle,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: and I think we can trust Logan Gilbert a lot
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: more than Savali here. Gilbert as the worst ERA, but
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: he's clearly the better pitcher. Four point zero three ERA
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: is not great, but one point one seven whip that
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: is pretty solid. He's been pretty good since he had
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: that one bad start against the Yankees at home, and
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: all of his other starts he's had one or no walks,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: he's allowed three or fewer earned runs, and all the
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: rest this month he's allowed two or fewer in all
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: three of his outings. He's definitely on track right now.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: He's in really good form right now. He is more
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: of a fly ball pitcher as well, but again he's
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: in the friend confines whatever I mean. I know that's
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: kind of the Wrigley nickname, but whatever you want to
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: call it. Seattle, it's very picture friendly. He's allowed one
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: hipper inning, but he has a really nice thirty two
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: to five strike out walk ratio in twenty nine innings.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: His command has been spot on recently. Man he's good
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: and his numbers against the A's are quite good. In
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: sixty six at bats, he has a ridiculous twenty nine
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: to one strike out walk ratio against them one fifty
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: two batting average allowed five to seventy three OPS is
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: higher than you'd think, but that's because he's allowed five
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: home runs to them. But still the OPS is that low.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: So basically it's like all or nothing. You're either gonna
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: get a strikeout or a home run basically off of him.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: But this is a picture friendly park, like I said,
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: so the home runs don't happen at that high of
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: a rate here. And I'm guessing some of these home
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: runs he allowed to the A's we're probably in the
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: A's stadium last year, would be my guest. I can look. Actually, no,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: I'm actually wrong. That's not good. He pitched against the
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: A's at home both times last year, but the most
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: recent time he gave up one run and had thirteen
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: strikeouts in one walk, so he absolutely dominated them. Actually,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: both of his starts last year against the A's, they
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: were both at home. He completely dominated them both times, so,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: and I think that was the only year the A's
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: have been in that stadium prior to this year, so
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but yeah, he was completely dominant in
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: both of his home starts against the A's last year.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with it. I like Seattle here. They're
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: getting the money. I know it's a bit of a
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: price here to laying. I think we could do it, though.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we're at least gonna push on that thing. But yeah,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: that's my only baseball play of the day. I like
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: it one game too early on Utah. Utah played better
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: in last night's game, for sure. They they had the
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: better game last night. I still don't think they're gonna
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: win the series, though, I think the experience is going
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: to win out for Vegas in that series. But yeah,
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: I have not given out a play on any of
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: that though. My plays so far were Game two Dallas
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: and Game two Lightning have been my only play so far,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: and I will have a hockey play tonight. Okay, where
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: are we at here? Milwaukee and Detroit is the next game.
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: I was right about Milwaukee winning yesterday, but it did
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: not really happened the way that I thought it would.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: I don't even think Harrison. Yeah, Harrison didn't even go
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: deepen up into the game to get a win. He
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: threw way too many pitches. But I'm wondering if he
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: got hurt or something. I don't know. Why Harrison got
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: pulled from that game because he was actually pitching pretty well.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: What happened was Milwaukee scored a ton of runs late
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: in the game. As far as the bullpens are concerned,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: yesterday we had Milwaukee used four relief pitchers yesterday, which
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: isn't great. Like I said, Harrison was out of the
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: game a little bit early. Detroit used two bullpens. Milwaukee's
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: hasn't been that good. They're at twenty fourth in whip,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: which is not good. De Troit is tied with them, though,
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: and Detroit actually has the worst ra so Milwaukee has
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: actually had the slightly better bullpen over Detroit this year.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: Neither has been that good though, so you know, they
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: might be bullpens that you kind of want to avoid
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: right now. The offenses for both teams are pretty capable,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: though Detroit hasn't been that well. Actually, I'm looking at
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: the bullpen's still my mistake. Detroit. Where are they at?
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: They're middle of the pack right now, fourteenth on offense.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's been a little bit better at ninth, which is
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: what I thought. Soy Milwaukee. They're dealing with some offensive injuries,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: but they've been a pretty solid offense, as they usually are,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: but usually they're better at home, though like last year
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: they were a really good offense at home, they were
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit mediocre on the road. I believe Chad
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: Patrick is pitching for Milwaukee. Ridiculous point nine to five
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: ERA from him so far, one point one six whip. Obviously,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: his era is unsustainable, like it is going to go up.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: But he's not a bad pitcher. He's not really a
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: strikeout guy at all. Though he's got nine strikes cuts
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: in nineteen innings. High fly ball rate worries me as well,
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: but he hasn't allowed many runs at all. He's allowed
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: two runs all season, so you know he's not allowing runs.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: He's allowed seven walks, which that ratio is really bad
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: with the nine strike cuts, but that's because the strike
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: out rate is incredibly low. Fifteen hits a lot in
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: nineteen innings. You know. The only thing to really kind
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: of pick at here. The strikeout rate is low. He
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: just doesn't come in and blow guys away, but he's
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: at least getting out excuse me, and Detroit has never
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: faced it before, so he might have a little bit
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: of an extra advantage here. Like I say, sometimes these
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: young pitchers have a little bit of an advantage against
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: these hitters when the hitters have to figure them out
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: and haven't seen them before. Casey Mize is pitching for Detroit.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty good so far. Two point seven to
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: eighty RA, one point one to nine whip. I don't
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: think he's that good, but his numbers do look pretty
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: good this year. Twenty five to seven strike out walk ratio,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: twenty hits a lot in twenty two and two innings,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: so he has a good strikeout right His fly ball
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: rate is also high, though, which you know, I don't
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: love these high fly ball rates. But again, it's not
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: gonna be like the factor that's gonna make me decide
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: everything about a pitcher. Though his last two starts have
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: been quite good. He allowed one run across uh whatever
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: that is? Eleven excuse me. It's like, yeah, twelve something
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: in at twelve and a third innings, I think is
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: what that is. If I'm doing the math right, with
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: a twelve to two strike out walk ratio. So yeah,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: he's he's on right now. He's definitely in rhythm right now,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: in good form right now. His numbers against Milwaukee are
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: okay in twenty four at bats for four to one
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: strike out walk. Razio two ninety two batting average is
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: not good, but six twelve ops because he's allowed no
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: extra base hits. So this game, I'm gonna lean first
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: five under in this game, I think makes sense to me.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: In this one, I don't really want to do it,
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: but the money is agreeing with me on the under.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: In general, the total flipped to the eight juice to
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: the under. It's kind of in that no man's land there.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: You get above that key number seven if you want
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: to go full game on it. But I don't know
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: if I would, because the bullpens are a little bit
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: untrustworthy to me. Fifty seven percent of tickets on the
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: over and eighty seven percent of the cash on the under. Yeah,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: first five under, I think is what makes the most
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: sense to me in that game. I don't really want
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: to do it, though. Minus one twenty nine is the
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: price on Detroit right now, seventy eight percent of tickets,
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of the cash on Detroit, so it
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: looks like Detroit is taking the money here. I don't
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: really know if i'd want to fade Chad Patrick though,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: being an unknown to Detroit pitching pretty well right now.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Mize is the better strike up pitcher right now.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: So Miz does kind of appear to have the better
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: stuff over Patrick. And like I said, at some point,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Patrick his numbers are going to get worse than they
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: are right now, even though I don't think he's a
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: bad pitcher. Atlanta at Washington this has been an over series,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: which makes sense because Washington has been hitting well and
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: their offense has sucked. Actually, their bullpen is excuse me,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: their offense has been good. Their bullpen socks. I can't
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: think right now. My brain is fucked. Yesterday was extremely high,
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: scoring eleven to four win for Washington. These teams have
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: split the first two games of the series. They're actually
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: playing again tomorrow afternoon, so this is a four game
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: series with the first two games being split. One one
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: bullpen you suggests. Today Washington used three relief pitchers, Atlanta
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: used four. Atlanta does still have the better bullpen, though
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: Atlanta's been the top bullpen in baseball, though I don't
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: think they really are. I think San Diego is the
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: best bullpen. Atlanta has had some of the best numbers,
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: so they have the best whip second best era I
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: think is what they have right now, maybe third best,
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: whatever it is. They've been a good bullpen though Washington
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: stinks Washington's twenty sixth and bullpen whip and their era
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: is bad too. Both offenses have been good, third and
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: fifth respectively, the Braves and the Gnats here. I still
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: kind of think these offenses are not as good as
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: they look so far, though, But you know, we're whatever
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: we are a month into the season almost now, and
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: that's these are the numbers we have to work with
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: so far. Martin Perez is pitching for the Braves here.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: He's basically in the rotation because too many of their
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: starters are hurt. But he's been pretty effective two point
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: two to one point nine to three whip. Like I said,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: he's a veteran that relies on his command and getting
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: soft outs and stuff like that, but he's been pretty good.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: Ten to six strikeout walk ratio is obviously not good,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: but his strikeout rate is just low. He's just not
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: a strikeout guy. He's only a lot thirteen hits in
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: twenty to third innings. You know, there's nothing to really
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: argue too much about here. He's been fine. I don't
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: think he's great, but you know, he's stuck in the
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: league for this long because he can be like an effective,
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: like bottom of the rotation type of pitcher. They can
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: give you an arm that that's not gonna go out
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: there and like kill you most times. Yeah, and they've
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: been in every single game that he's pitched as well. Yeah,
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: and he's coming off a six inning shutout against Philly.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: But you know, maybe sometimes when a pitcher does that
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: will mean a little bit of a letdown spot after that.
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: But with him being such a veteran, I'm not sure
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be the case. Somehow. Even though Perez has
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: been around forever, the Nationals have only had nine at
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: bats against him. Only three of their hitters have ever
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: faced him before C J. Abrams not JJ Abrams. I
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: was like, is he putting lens flare all over everything? Anyway? Yeah,
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: Perez has a lot of three thirty three average one
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: thousand ops to the Nats hitters. Abrams does have a
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: home run off him, But I'm not gonna put much
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: weight into a small sample size like that. But there
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: is plenty of film out there on Perez and stuff
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: like that, Like he's not a guy that's that hard
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: to figure out. Really. Zach Litel is pitching for the Nationals.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty bad this year. Seven point one one
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: point seven to four whip that's quite awful, but really
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: it's kind of one really bad start. Skewing the numbers
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: a bit there, give up eight runs of four innings
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: against San Francisco in his most recent outing. Usually, his
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: command numbers are pretty good, but he's too hittable, and
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: that has been the case again this year. He's got
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: a fourteen to six strikeout walk ratio, which is it's
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: not great, but it's not awful. The twenty seven hits
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: a lot in nineteen innings is where the real problem
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: comes in. He just puts the ball over the plate
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: too often. And against Atlanta's numbers are not good. In
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: sixty at bats eight to two, strike out walk ratio,
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: three seventeen average allowed eight seventy two ops. Not liking
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: what I see there, Yeah, I think Atlanta does have
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: the edge here man pretty much for pitching. I think
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: it's across the word. Oh shit, I should have I
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: need to rehandicap this. My mistake. Martin Perez, Fuck you
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: as ESPN. Martin Perez is not actually going to be
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: starting in this game. It looks like I don't know
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: if they pushed him back, if he's hurt, I don't know.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: But young pitcher Dda fuent As is going to be
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: pitching or d Dyer I guess, I don't know. Dude.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: I took French, so I pronounced it Dda Ddy or Fuentes,
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: however you want to pronounce it, because I guess he's Hispanic.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Hold on, let me see, he's not even listed. Where's
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: he listed? Here? Is he on the depth chart? No,
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: he is not. Let me look at the roster. Then, yeah,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: we got to rehandicap this. Fwenda is a really young pitcher.
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: I think they kind of he's only twenty years old,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: and I think they kind of brought him up too
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: early last year, and he wasn't that good as a
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: starter last year. His numbers are out of the bullpen
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: so far this year, but he has been good out
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: of the bullpen two point twenty five RA point seventy
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: five whip. I think he does have talent. Actually, my mistake,
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: he's only made one appearance so far this season. I
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: thought it was more than that. Like I said, it
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: was a bullpen appearance. But it was actually good. He
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: went four innings against Kansas City, one run, allout on
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: two hits, one walk for strikeouts. Yeah, not bad. But
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: if you look at what he did last year, he
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: did struggle pretty badly. He had a thirteen point eight
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: five yarra and four starts last year and two point
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: two three whip. Now do I think he's that bad? No,
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: I don't. I mean it was a very small sample size.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: He walked too many guys twelve to six strike a
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, dude. I mean, I think he does have
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: a lot of upside here, based on like the scouting
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: that I looked at last year or whatever. But like
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: I said, I think the Braves rushed him up and
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: I think he was just too young, Like they brought
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: him up when he was like I think he was
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: twenty because his birthday is in June, but he could
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: him in nineteen even when they brought him up last year.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: That's a little bit crazy, man. I think that's a
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: bit much for a pitcher that's that young to come
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: up and pitch, you know, in a pretty big market
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: like this. Maybe the pressure was off him in this
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: relief appearance. It's really difficult to figure out what we're
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: gonna get out of fauent does here. By the way,
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: he is from Columbia, if you wanted to know, Washington
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: did not face him last year, so Washington's never seen
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: him before. I do talk about how that is a
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: little bit of an advantage to the starting pitcher if
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: they're unfamiliar to the opposing offense, especially when they're a
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: young guy that does have some talent. Now, with Fuentees
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: being listed, it looks like that did drop the line
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: on Atlanta defin minus one sixty minus one forty five.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: I think the oddsmaker's consensus basically is that Perez would
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: have been the more trustworthy picture here at least, and
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Perez like you know exactly what you're gonna You're like,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: you pretty much know what you're gonna get out of him.
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: Fluentes is a wild card, like, we have no idea
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: what we're gonna get out of this guy here. Ninety
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets, ninety nine percent of the cash
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: on Atlanta. Don't know that that's accurate to me. They
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: look like a public side. I don't think we could
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: trust Zach Latel here at all, though. I don't want
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: to do anything with this game. Man. The money's coming
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: in in the under too, even though this has been
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: a major over series. If you're gonna go under, you
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: have to go first five here. But I would not
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: be able to do that. I think you trust either starter,
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: you know. Actually it's Washington's bullpen is bad. Atlanta's is
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: not bad. But that's what I meant, Like, I would
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: not trust Washington his bullpen to factor into an under here.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: I still think probably the best approach is the Atlanta
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: money line, though, like you might get a good start
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: out of Fluentez, who knows, but you know that the
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: bullpen is better for the Atlanta side. That's probably the
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: way I would go, especially given that Atlanta got blown
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: out yesterday and they are the better team here. They
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: might be bounced back mode too, so all of us
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: slight lean towards Atlanta in that game. All right, we'll
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: do Red Sox Yankees, even though I don't even want
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: to talk about it, Dirty sock, what's up? Thanks for
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: hanging out. Red Sox have to fucking fire Alex Quorra.
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: You know what makes no sense to me? Cora decides
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: to not start Jaron Duran last night against a right
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: handed hitter that he was like three for thirteen off
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: of which I know is not good. But he had
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: the most experience Heal and it wasn't like he gets
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: completely dominated by Heel. No, let's just not play Duran,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: which probably means he's gonna play tonight against a lefty
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: that Duran is zero for thirteen off of lifetime. What
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: the fuck are you doing if you're gonna sit Duran?
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: Clearly it should be this game against a lefty that
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: he's had no success against. I don't know what we're doing.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: This game is on MLB Network and Prime. The Red
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: Sox are absolutely fucked. The best pitching matchup they had
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: was in yesterday's game and they got nothing. They can't
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: hit Luis Heel at all, even though Heel isn't even good.
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: Heel is good against the Red Sox and he's good
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: against nobody else because the Red Sox blow that much ass.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: Fuck the fucking Red Sox. I'm so sick of this
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: fucking team. They have way more talent than this. They
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: gotta fire every member of their coaching staff. I'm so
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: fucking sick of Alex Kuora. I'm sick of this shit.
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: H The Red Sox used one relief pitcher yesterday and
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: it was Carmen san Diego Tyler Someniego, who I thought
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: they brought up to replace Sonny Gray and the starting
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: rotation because Gray got hurt. But no, that's not correct.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: So Honiego is gonna be pitching out of the bullpen
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: and Peyton totally is gonna come up and take Sonny
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: Gray's out of the rotation, which I do like. You know,
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: I'm a totally fan. Dude. He's a huge, burly, like
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: six six two point fifty motherfucker who looks like he
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: looks like an even bigger Reed Coverdale. Seems like the
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: fucking man. So yeah, bring up Peyton Totley. I'm fine
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: with that. I like this guy, you know, just his
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: aura is unmatched. So we'll talk about him whenever he's starting.
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be starting later this week at
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: some point. Whatever. Red Sox do have the better bullpend
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: here and the arrested bullpen. That's the only good thing
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: I could say about the Red Sox here. The Yankees
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: used three relief pitchers yesterday. The Red Sox still have
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: the sixth best bulpend whip way to go. I guess
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: the Yankees bullpen has not been that good. They're eighteenth,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: but still better than last year. Hitting, obviously, the Yankees
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: have a big edge there. They're now sixth in OPS.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox are second worst in OPS now after
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: yesterday's disastrous performance. Max Freed is pitching for the Yankees.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: He actually hasn't been that good, even though his numbers
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: overall look pretty good two point nine to seventy or
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: a point eight one whip. I mean he's, like, you know,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: he's put up there as like this ACE pitcher and
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: while yeah, he's good, but like his walk numbers really
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: haven't been that good. Like throughout his career, his strikeout
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: rates pretty low for a guy that's considered to be
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: like an ACE caliber pitcher. Twenty three strikeouts in thirty
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: three and a third innings, eight walks, but he's only
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: allowed nineteen hits. That's not bad, but the walks have
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: been bad recently for him. The Yankees have lost three
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: starts in a row that he's made. He's allowed three
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: or more runs in all three, and he's walked three
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: piece in two out of the three. That's not exactly great.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Like I actually think Schlittler is better than Freed, and
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: he's pitching tomorrow. Uh Freed, though, I'm not gonna say
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: he's gonna do poorly here because I don't think that's
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: the case because the Red Sox suck offensively and they
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: can't hit Freed. In seventy nine at bats twenty seven
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: to five strikeout walk ratio two zero three batting average
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: allowed five to seventy nine ops. Yeah, the Red Sox
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: have not been able to hit him, and like I said,
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Duran is zero for thirteen to six strikeouts off him.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: So if you're gonna rest Durand in this series, why
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: wouldn't it be this game? Fire Alex Kora Ron Jr.
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: Suarez his pitcher for the Red Sox. He's got good
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: numbers this year. He has started pitching pretty well on
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: three point two two ERA one point oh seven whip.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: I thought he was a good pickup. He's allowed no
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: runs over his last two outings, including a big game
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: at home against Detroit where he shut them out for
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: eight innings, only allowed two hits and couldn't get a win.
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: Because the Red Sox offense is that bad and Osheeda
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: walk them off with a win in that game. Oh
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: my god. Suarez not a great strikeout rate. Fifteen strikeouts
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: in twenty two and a third innings, so he's only
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: allowed eighteen hits six walks. You know, considering the amount
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: of innings pitch, that's not that bad. He's a decent
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: ground ball pitcher, which is what you want in Femway
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: Park against the Yankees' numbers have not been very good.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: In ninety at bats, twenty three to five strikeout walk
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: ratio is good, but three hundred average eight oh four ops.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not liking what I see there, even though he
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: does have the capability to battle Freed. There's no doubt
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: about it. If the Red Sox are gonna somehow win
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: this game, it's going to be because they're pitching is
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: just a little bit better, and their bullpen is gonna
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: have to be part of that as well. Obviously, if
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: you're gonna try to go with the Red Sox here,
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: you're gonna go full game on this thing because you
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: want their bullpen to be included in that equation. However,
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: I just don't see it. I don't uh. The market
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: was indicating on the Red Sox yesterday and they didn't
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: score at all, even though, like I said, on the
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: surface early looks like he's the better pitcher over Heel,
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: but the matchup kind of said otherwise. So I did
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: not like the Red Sox yesterday. We have a similar
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: market read here today. With the market basically screaming Red
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: Sox again here eighty six percent of the tickets and
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: only eighty one percent of the cash on the Yankees.
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: You basically know you're gonna be paying attacks with the
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: Yankees when it's Freed on the mound with the Yankees.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: I agree. I don't think the Yankees should be a
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty eight favorite here, But I don't think
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: the Yankees are gonna lose the game. I don't. I
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: just showed you the matchup numbers. If the Red Sox
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: are gonna win, it's gonna be because the bullpen is
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: gonna help them do it. So if you go Red Sox,
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: you gotta go full game on it. I think Yankees
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: first five makes some sense here because I think Freed
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: has the advantage over Suarez, and I think, you know,
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: it's maybe not a huge advantage though that's the thing. Yeah,
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man. The total is also low especially
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: for a Fenway game seven and a half money coming
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: towards the under here, you know, if you're gonna go under,
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: that would probably be first five innings as well. I
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: think if you're gonna go under, you're basically gonna rely
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: on this being a starting pitching duel here, which it
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: definitely could be. You know, I'm I don't know, I'm
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: thinking about this. Red Sox did get shut out at
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: home yesterday. I'm gonna lean Yankees here, but I think
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox are actually probably more likely to win
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: this game than yesterday's game. That would kind of be.
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: That's kind of what I'm thinking right now, and part
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: of that is because of what happened yesterday though, where
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: teams will get a little bit complacent if they just
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: shut out a team at home or whatever. So I
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: don't like it, you know, I think I still probably
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: lean Yankees slightly. Would probably be first five for the Yankees, though,
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: like I said, full game Red Sox, you know, if
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: you want to try whatever, I don't really strongly disagree
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: with it, but yeah, I don't like the game at all,
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: and yeah, I don't like anything about this Red Sox
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: season here. Speaking of teams, that can't hit and can't
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: win games. Mets still have not been able to break
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: their losing streak. They did not win yesterday against Minnesota,
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: despite having Nolan McLain on the mound against Simeon Woods Richardson,
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: the Mets still could not win. Even though I think
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: Nolan McLain pitched pretty well here in this game. Yeah,
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: he had double digit strikeouts, went into the seventh inning,
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: and they still couldn't win behind him. How ridiculous is this?
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: He gave up three or on runs, but you can't really,
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's not even that bad. Like this is
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: just it's getting ridiculous that the Mets can't win these games.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: I think it's hilarious though, as we talked about on
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: Loser cast last night, by the way lighton, I'm pretty
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: sure his pick for Loser this week was the New
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: York Mets. And you think that would be me going
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: with the sports related pick, but I did not. I
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: went with Hovey and Malay because you know, I hate
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: that guy. But yeah, the Mets was a good pick
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: from him. Now, what's really hilarious about them Mets is
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: they had, you know, they had that publicity stunt where
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: mister met whatever hugged Mamdani, the communist mayor of the
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: of New York City, and the Mets have lost every
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: game since that stunt happened. So that's hilarious. But it's
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: even more hilarious that the Mets when they pulled that
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: ridiculous like pride event last year Pride Night, and made
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: a point of like showing all these like gay men,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: like making out on the JumboTron and all this stuff.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: It was like the worst Pride Night affair that I've
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: ever seen in any professional sport. The Mets have actually
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: had the worst record in Major League Baseball since that game.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: It's it's unbelievable, especially given that the Mets have like
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: the eighth highest payroll in Major League Baseball. Oh my god.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: And yeah, Mon Soda is hurt. I know, but come on, man,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: even if he's your best hitter, how does that explain
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: losing this many games in a row and losing this
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: many games? I don't even get it. And for the
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: run last year when they lost a bunch of games
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: left last year, Soda wasn't hurt for that whole run.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what to even say at this
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: point now, The Mets did return home from a road
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: trip yesterday, and you know, I talk about how that's
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: not a good spot. Even though I thought the pitching
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: matchup was good enough that the Mets should have won
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: that game anyway, they did not. Now, second game back home,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: the Mets with the bag head. That's the Red Sox
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: right now, though, Mets and Red Sox fans are all
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: gonna form like a I don't know, a suicide packed
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: or something. But they're in a bounce back spot here.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: The Mets are because you know, I talk about when
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: a team returns home from a road trip and they
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: lose a lot of times, they play better in the
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: next game. Will they finally get a win here? You know,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know. The pitching matchup was better yesterday for
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: the Mets. Now the Mets do have the better bullpen.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: They used three relief pitchers yesterday. Hey, just like the
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: Red Sox, the team can't hit and they have the
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: better bullpen. The Mets, excuse me, Minnesota used three relief
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday. Minnesota's bullpen is bad though they're the fourth
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: worst bullpen whip. Their eray is a little bit better
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: than that, but still bad. Bullpen. The Mets are twelfth
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: and bullpen whip. Their ERA is fine, so not a
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: bad bullpen from the Mets hitting. Obviously, the Mets have
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: been just atrocious worst offense in baseball right now based
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: on OPS. Not quite the worst batting average but close.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Their third worst behind the Phillies and the Mariners. Oh no,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: fourth worst behind the White Sox of course as well,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: but the White Sox OPS is way higher because they
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: just hit home runs somehow. It's that young Japanese hitter.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: They have their's hitting a ton of home runs and
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: not hitting for average. And oh yeah, in Minnesota their
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: offense has been okay this year. There, I think they've overperformed.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: But they're currently sitting at where are they at? I
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: don't even know why? Why don't I I'm looking at
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: bullpen again. That's why the Twins are twelfth in OPS
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: right now. The starting pitching here, though, is very interesting.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: Connor pre Lip is listed as the starter for the
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: Twins year, although he's not. I don't think he's listed
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: here or no he is now. ESPN had him listed pregame,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: didn't have him listed before. This is an interesting case here.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: Lip is making his major league debut. He has not
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: pitched in the majors before. I looked at his minor
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: league stats. He struggled in Triple A last year, but
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: his Triple A stats this year look good, although he's
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: only made like three starts, but he does have like
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: a two something ERA and Triple A this year and
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: his uh whip is like one point two. His main
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: issue is the walks. He walks a lot of guys,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: but his numbers overall look pretty good at Triple A
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: this year. They've decided to call him up. He's twenty five,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: which is a little bit old for making his major
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: league debut. That's because he had he's had injury issues
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: and he actually had Tommy John surgery. People are getting
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: that thing younger and younger. Man, Just go out get
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit of the TJ. You know what I mean. Uh,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: it's it's like a routine thing at this point. Oh yeah,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: my arm's a little bit fucked up. Let's go get
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: the little TJ there. Now, my elbow is gonna look
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: like a I don't know, a bird's beak or something
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: like Max Shurs or I don't know. Man. H Prelip
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: is a lefty. He's six two, two ten, pretty big.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: He only has like a three pitch mix. I looked
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: him up. He's got a fastball, slider and change up
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: is basically what he throws, which seems like more of
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: a relief type of arsenal to me. Like, I don't
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: know if he's gonna wind up being more of a
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: relief pitcher. They're testing him out as a starter. We
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: don't know how deep he's gonna be able to go
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: in this game. His fastball is pretty good, supposedly it's
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: mid to high nineties. Obviously his off speed stuff needs
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: to be a good change from that. You know what
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: I mean with the whatever I said he throws, I
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: think I said a slider and a change I think
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: is what it is. Obviously he's gonna need that stuff
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: to be like hard to pick up, and I think
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: that is the case. I think he has kind of
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: a short arm motion that does make it difficult to
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: determine what pitch he's thrown at you and any given time.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: So I think that's how he is able to succeed.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: So the hitters don't know when the off speed stuff
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: is coming. Now, obviously he has the advantage here of
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: not having been seen before, and he's getting a nice
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: offense to face in his major league debut. He's getting
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: to face an extremely weak Mets offense here right now,
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: even though yes, the Mets do have some talent in
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: that offense still. But these young pitchers, like I say,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit of an advantage when they haven't
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: been seen before by the opposing hitters. Clay Holmes is
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Mets. He has good numbers this year,
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: but you know, I don't think he's that good. One
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: point nine to six ERA, one point zero nine whip. Yeah,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, you can't really disagree with those stats too much.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: But sixteen to nine strike up walk raceio, that does
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: not get me excited. Twenty three innings pitch, sixteen hits allowed.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: That's good. He's not allowed many hits, but the walk
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: numbers a bit high. He's not a strike gug guy.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: But again, and we know how he thrives. It's the
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: ground balls. He induces a ton of ground balls, which
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: again that always throws me off because guys that do
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: that will get guys to hit into double plays and
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: shit like that, and it'll skew their numbers and make
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: their numbers better than you think they should be. Uh So,
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: that's what Holmes has going on here. He's been pretty
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: much fine this year, though. I guess we could say
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: his numbers are not bad against Minnesota, really, they only
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: have eighteen of bats against it. But the walks are
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: still a concern there. Six to five strike out walk
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: ratio that's not good. To twenty two batting average a
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: lot is good. Seven to eighty ops is not that good.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: Josh Bell has a double off him, and Matt Wooner
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: has a triple off him. It's hard to gauge what
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: we're gonna get in this game. Man. The Mets are
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: probably too heavy of a favorite though there at minus
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: one fifty five year, and the money is pouring in
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: on Minnesota on this pre lip guy here, fifty five
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets. It sounds like pre we're in the
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: pre limbs right now. Man, fifty ticket, seventy five percent
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Minnesota. Money looks like it is
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: hitting Minnesota obviously. I think if you want to play
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: Minnesota here, I think you gotta exclude the bullpens, though
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: I would go first five Minnesota in this one if
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: I was gonna do it that way. And you know what,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: I probably do actually slightly lean that way. I know
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: I've been leaning towards the Mets every game recently basically,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: and now the one time that I'm gonna lean against
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: the Mets, They're probably gonna win, right, But like I said,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: I think the Mets full game, they have a better
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: opportunity to win this thing because their bullpen is definitely better.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: So if you're gonna go Minnesota here, you want to
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: focus on just this starting pitching matchup here. Little bit
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: of a risk with pre Lip because we don't know
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: what we're gonna get out of him. But yeah, that's
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: the way that I would lean in that game is
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: probably Minnesota first five innings getting a decent underdog price there.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna take a break. I'll be back.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: We're gonna do the last five baseball games, and then
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: I do have a hockey play and a basketball play,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: and I already gave out the one baseball play. Being
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: very selective here today, man, I think hopefully so for
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: those who missed it, Seattle Split bet run line, money line.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: I know it's a very juicy favorite there, but I
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: like a lot of things about Seattle and that one
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: pitching across the board. Matchup wise, you know, all right,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: I'll be right back. I'm gonna zoom out a little
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: bit on this first, so you can just look at
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: the you can look at the most of the baseball
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: market while I leave for two seconds. I can't even
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: fit it on here, and probably you can't even see
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: it now because it's too small. But whatever, all right,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: all right, baseball, I'm gonna finish this off here. Let
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: me see a couple other interesting games here. Philadelphia and
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: Chicago Cubs. This is a good matchup. I think it's
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: a good game. I don't know about the well, the
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: matchup actually doesn't look very good, but the game might
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: be good. Philadelphia has lost a ton of games in
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: a row though, Philadelphia not like the Mets at least,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: but they've lost whatever. This is eight games in a row,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: potentially on the verge of getting swept by the Cubs.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: I think this series continues tomorrow, though it does so
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: these teams do play tomorrow as well, but obviously the
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: Cubs have won both games in the series so far.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: Bullpen wise, Philadelphia I think has probably the lesser bullpen.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: They also used five relief pitchers yesterday though, Keller only
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: pitched for three pitches, not Mitch Keller, Brad Keller, Cubs.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: Let me see, Cubs only use three. So the Cubs
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: have a bit more rest in their bullpen here. Their
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: bullpen is starting to pitch pretty well as well. The
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: Cubs are eleventh and whip right now. They were decent
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: last year or two. Phillies not as good. They're at
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: fourteenth and whip. Their era is definitely worse though, and
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: the Phillies were the lesser bullpen last year. Phillies have
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: less rest there, so yeah, I'm gonna give the Cubs
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge here. Cubs also are up to fourth
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: in offensive ops. So the Cubs have started to hit,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: which definitely they have the ability to. I think the
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: Phillies have the ability to as well, given who's in
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: their lineup, but their offense has been massively struggling. What
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: else is new these teams that are not playing well
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: right now? You know, I still think Seattle, Philly, Red Sox, Mets.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: I still think those offenses are a lot better than
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: what we've seen so far though. But yeah, the Phillies
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: are twenty fifth right now in offensive ops. I'm gonna
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: give the Cubs an offensive Edgelo. I don't think it's
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: as extreme as people might think. But the starting pitching,
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: this looks really bad for Philadelphia, Like, this is not
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: what you want when you're trying to break a losing streak.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: The Phillies are going with Kyle Bacchus as listed as
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: they're starting a pitcher here. Bacchus is he the what
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: is he? The god of wine? I forget, but this
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: looks bad. This looks like it's actually a bullpen game
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: for Philadelphia here. Because Bacchus is in their bullpen, He's
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: probably only gonna pitch one two winnings here. I don't
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: even know what's gonna happen. So you're gonna get a
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: Phillies bullpen game here. I would stay away from that,
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: you know. I mean, sometimes managers know how to manage
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: the bullpen game and it will throw hitters off because
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: they have to face a bunch of different pitchers in
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: quick succession. But you can't do that with a mediocre
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: bullpen like this, and you know, a bullpen that's not
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: really rested either. I don't know what we're doing here. Baccus.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: He hasn't pitched more than one to two thirds innings
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: in any of his outings this season so far. He
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: actually pitched two days ago in this series, so you
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: know you're not gonna get that many innings out of
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: him here. Nine to one start out walk ratio he's
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: had so far as fine, but whatever. He's got a
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: five point four ERA one point two whip out of
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: the bullpen. The ERA probably should be a little bit
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: lower than it is, but I don't think we really
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: need to go much into this because he's only gonna pitch,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: like I said, one to two innings here. Cubs do
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: have eleven at bats against him two seventy three average,
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: eight eighteen ops. I don't think it matters what the
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: numbers are. I just don't. I'm maybe I'm too old
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: school too, but I don't like what I see here
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: with a bullpen game coming out of Philadelphia. Here, Matthew
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: Boyd is listed as the starter for the Cubs and
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: he's coming off of injury, so I don't know what
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: we're gonna get out of him. Man, he had a
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: really rough outing in his opener against the Washington Nationals,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: give up six earned runs in that first start of
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: the season, but he pitched better in the second start
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim and held him to one ear and run
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: in five to two thirds. However, he got hurt. But
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: if you look at his overall numbers, they're actually quite
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: good this season. Seventeen strikeouts in nine and the third innings,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of strikeouts, only three walks, eight hits allowed.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: His command numbers were there, men, But I don't know
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: if he was throwing too hard because that's a lot
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: of strikeouts. Whatever it was, he got hurt. He's coming
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: back now. He is a veteran. So when veterans come
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: back from injury, you know they've gone through the minor
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: league rehab process. They're used to it. You know, like
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: a guy who's thirty five, who's been around for so long,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: he's not gonna be thrown off by coming back from injury,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? Because I do talk about
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: how pitchers or creatures have habit and they like to
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: pitch on schedule, whatever. But veterans like this. A lot
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: of times, they'll be excited to get back from injury,
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: and a lot of times they'll be a little bit
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: undervalued coming back from injury because it's like, oh, this
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: guy's a question mark. We don't know how he's gonna
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: look his six point seventy five ERA this year. Obviously,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: I already explained what happened there. He just got hit
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit by Washington. But he has a one
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: point one to eight whip indicating that his ERA should
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: be a lot lower, and his strikeout walk ratio indicates
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: that as well. I did have questions about Boyd last
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: year though, because his career, like I don't know, his
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: career numbers were never really this good, and then all
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: of a sudden he looked really good for Cleveland, had
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: a shortened season in twenty twenty four, and then the
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: Cubs picked him up and he was He had like
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: the best season of his career last year with the
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: Cubs when he was thirty four, and you just usually
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: don't see that. So I don't know, man, But yeah, Boyd,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: I mean I would trust him way more than this
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: than this Philadelphia bulp end game. Though. Boy against Philly,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: he does have pretty good numbers in twenty seven at
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: bats six to three strike out walk ratio is not great,
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: but two twenty two batting average allowed five point fifty
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: nine ops. There's nothing that I see here that worries me. Really,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: it's possible he doesn't bounce back right away from coming
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: back from injury. But I just don't see how you
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: could play Philly here, man, I don't. The money is
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Cubs there minus one sixty five
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: in this battle of lefties, if you even want to
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: call it that, because Baccus will be out of the game,
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: probably by the third inning at most, fifty three percent
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, eighty percent of the cash on the Cubs.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: The money is hitting the Cubs here. I don't disagree
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: with it in this one. I did disagree with it
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: in the first game, but not here, which of course
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: means Philly is probably gonna somehow win this game and
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: shock everyone. I would be pretty shocked, but it might happen.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: But yeah, money indicating on the Cubs. I'll lean to
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. It would be like a run line situation there.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: Money's coming in on the under. It looks like probably
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: have a wind blowing in situation there in a rig
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: there off the lake with the total sitting at eight.
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, I think it's Cubs or passed in
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: that game. Really though, and again it's like make your
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: own minus one run line type of thing there. Pittsburgh
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: at Texas. I thought Texas was in a bad spot yesterday. Man,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: they were returning home from a long road trip, and
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: I did not wind up giving it out as a play.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: The starting pitching did wind up being what was originally listed.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: It was Motzinski against Kumar Rocker, and Texas actually wound
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: up winning the game, so luckily I did not wind
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: up going with that one. So now Texas is off
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: to a one to oh start in the series here,
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: so maybe Pittsburgh could be in bounced back mode here.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe Texas has a little bit of a delayed let
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: down here. Bullpen usage. Yesterday, Texas used three relief pictures.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: They didn't use anybody the day before that too, so
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: they're pretty rested here. Pittsburgh also was off the day
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: before that, but they used three relief pitchers yesterday. Texas
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: I think have the better bullpen. They're seventh right now
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: in bullpen Whip. They were good last year. They're pitching
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: coaching seems like it's the best in baseball. So yeah,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: Texas's bullpen, you can pretty much trust them. They have
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: one of the best bullpen rays as well. I think
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: they might be second best in bullpen e Ray Pittsburgh
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: not been as good. They're seventeenth. Their whip kind of
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: indicates that they're Eray is a little bit misleadingly low
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: out of the bullpen right now too. Texas does have
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. Pittsburgh has had the better offense here.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: There's seventh right now in ops, Texas eleventh. I think
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: both offenses might take a little bit of a step
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: back here, but I'll probably agree Pittsburgh is the better
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: offense here. Starting pitching is interesting because both these starting
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: pitchers have a lot of upside here. They're both still
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: pretty young and have good stuff. Braxton Ashcraft is pitching
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: for the Pirates. Good numbers this year. Two point three
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: eighty array, one point six whip, twenty seventh strikeouts so
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: far in twenty two and two thirds innings, seven walk,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: seventeen hits allowed. That's all pretty good stuff. Man. He's
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: allowed no more than two earned runs in any of
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: his outings. He did get hit for three unearned runs
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: in his last outing, but that's not his fault unless
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: he was the one that committed the error. But even still,
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: it didn't have to do with his pitching, so the
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: fielding was bad in that game. He's been good overall though,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: like pretty much in every start this year, going up
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: against Texas, who's not a very good offense. They only
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: have nine at bats against him, but they are three
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: for nine off him. All three of the hits are singles,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: two strikeouts, one walk. You know, it amounts to a
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: three thirty three average seven to thirty three ohps. But
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: it's such a small sample. I'm not ready to say
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: that these numbers are really indicative of much of anything.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: I think Ashcraft could certainly come out there and have
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: a good start there. This is also a pitcher friendly
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: ballpark here. Jack Lighter is pitching four the Rangers here.
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he's got the pedigree. Of course,
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: he's I believe Al Lighter's son. He throws a lot
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: harder than his father. His numbers this year are not terrific,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: though his career just hasn't really gotten off the ground.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: Four point eight to seventy one point four to eight whip. Obviously,
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: he's shown glimpses of being good at times, though twenty
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: four to nine strike out walk ratio in twenty in
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: a third innings with twenty one hits allowed a little
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: bit too hittable, But the walks are kind of the
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: main concern here. Man. He's walked seven guys over his
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: last two outings, so he's a little bit out of
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: form right now. But granted those were road games against
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers and the A's, so maybe give him a
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: little bit of a break for that because the Dodgers
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: are any elite offense we know, and then the A's.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: That pitching park is just not I mean, it's not
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: a good park to pitch in, is what I mean
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: to say. But Lighter did throw over one hundred pitchers
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: for the first time this season in that game, so
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: that's maybe a little bit of a concern there. Does
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: have good strikeout stuff, though, Will he do well against Pittsburgh,
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Man, he only has eleven at bats
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: against him, so they're not too familiar with them. But
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: his numbers against them aren't good. One strikeout, two wall
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: three sixty four, batting average allowed, one thousand and seven ops.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: You know, it's such a small sample size you don't
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: want to put that much stock into that either. Just
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: like I said with Ashcraft, I'm gonna lean Pittsburgh, though,
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: I you know, the money is coming in on Pittsburgh.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: I think they'll get it done this time, you know,
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: maybe a bounce back from yesterday's game. They're a reasonable
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: price at minus won tens sixty percent of tickets seventy
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash on them. Ashcraft is just
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: in the better form right now. I'll lean that way.
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: The money's also coming out in the under. For what
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: that's worth fifty four percent of tickets on the over,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of the cash on the under. The
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: total is sitting in no man's land there at eight.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna disagree with an under. I think both
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers could pitch well here and get you there.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: It's a picture friendly park. I mean, we're looking at
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: offenses that I think have overperformed a little bit, and
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: Texas has bullpen is definitely good, Pittsburgh probably not awful.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: So I mean, I probably would not limit it to first,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: although you could if you want, but I don't know.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: I'm a full game. Under kind of makes some sense
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: to me in that game, but Pittsburgh probably my preference.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: And then under I don't hate in that game either.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: San Diego at Colorado. Colorado lost yesterday one to nothing.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: In course, field one to nothing? What are we doing here? Man?
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: Are these offenses that bad that it was a one
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: nothing game in course field yesterday? That seems a little
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: bit ridiculous to me. Probably we'll get some more runs
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: in this one. But San Diego's bullpen is elite, and
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: they're very well rested right now too. They used two
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday and didn't use them that much. Their
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: bullpen is in good shape here. Colorado used three. Uh,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: san Diego, I think they have the best bullpen in baseball,
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: as I keep saying, Obviously, we know they have Mason
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: Miller and whatever, but they have the second best whip
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: and the best era. So yeah, San Diego or second
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: best era, sorry behind Texas actually, but yeah, I think
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: San Diego's is the best bullpen, though Colorado's has been
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: surprisingly pretty good at tenth, although I don't think that's
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: gonna remain the case. I think they're not the worst bullpend,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: but they're not great either. Hitting wise, San Diego's really
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: struggled this year. Man, There's still twenty fourth in offensive
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: ops haven't really taken off. Colorado not much better at
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: twenty second, although I think San Diego is still a
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: little bit better than that, and Colorado they hit better
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: at home at least. Does that mean we're gonna get
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: a ton of runs in this game? I don't know.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: But the total is hilariously high. The total in this
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: game is like twelve twelve and a half. I think, yeah,
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: it's twelve. It's bordering on twelve and a half. The
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: money is actually coming back in on the under though.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think I would want to play the over
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: here the total. I mean, I know usually want to
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: go over when the total is that high, but especially
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: after a one nothing game, It's like, why would the
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: total be twelve here? But we'll talk about the starting
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: pitching here. I don't really want to be on the
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: over here. I don't like Walker Bueller, though, as you
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: guys know, his numbers are not horrible this season four
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: point five, eight, RA, one point two. I've whipped here
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: for San Diego, but his one road start was easily
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: his worst start at Feenway Park, and the Red Sox
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: somehow managed to lose that game anyway, but he's been
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: bad on the road. I looked at his stats in
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: course field, and I believe his last like two starts
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: in coursefield were both pretty bad. So his more recent outings,
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: of course field were bad. But back when he was
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: like a better pitcher, he pitched okay in cores. But
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think I would trust him right now. He
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: looks like he's bad on the road right now. Colorado
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: just saw him on April tenth, and he did well.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: He shut them out in San Diego, but that was
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: in San Diego. It's a six inning shutout San Diego
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: much more pitcher friendly ballpark. I don't think he's gonna
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: do nearly as well on the road here. Man. I
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: don't really trust Bueller here on the road against Colorado,
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: and his numbers are not good overall against these hitters
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: forty at bats, seven to three, strike at walk raceio
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: three hundred average allowed, eight forty nine oh ps. Tovar
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: does a lot of damage to him, five for ten
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: and with two doubles in a home run, two strikeouts
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: on a walk, So I would probably want to fade
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: Bueller here. He's going up against Tomoyuki Sugano, who does
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: actually have good numbers this year three point nine two ERA,
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: one point one to six whip. He hasn't been terrific
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: in corps here, but he had one good start against
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: Philly at home, and his one bad start was against
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers in his last outing, So maybe it was
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: because it was against the Dodgers more so than it
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: was Corse Field, you know what I mean. Although I
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: don't know because he's a fly ball pitcher, which is
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: not good in coursefield obviously, So I don't know, Uh, Sugano,
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: it's you know, we don't know what we're gonna get
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: out of him at coursefield this year. I mean, I
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: don't fully trust him obviously, but I think we can
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: give him a little bit of a pass because that
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: was against the Dodgers and they're obviously the best offense
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: in baseball, and I think it's not even really that close.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: He did pitch against San Diego in San Diego in
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: that in that series prior to that, did pretty well
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: six innings to earn runs, both on solo homers, which
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: is kind of ridiculous in a pitcher friendly ballpark, which
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: does not speak well for pitching a course field here.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: He's definitely given up too many home runs this year
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: man five home runs allowed overall. He has a fifteen
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: to five strike at walk ratio, which is you know,
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: not horrible, but not great. Nineteen hits and twenty two
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: thirds innings, that's not too bad. You know. Less than
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: one hit per inning is usually like kind of the
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: Mendoza line that I like to look at there. Yeah, overall,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know what we're gonna get out of him
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: in this game. And again, both offenses just saw these pictures,
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: and with a guy like Sugano, I think that's a
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: bit more of a negative because remember san Diego hadn't
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: seen him before. Probably so now that they have seen
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: him and they just recently did, that might help san
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: Diego's offense a little bit more in this one. His
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: numbers are good against them, but it's because of that
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: one start. Pretty much. Twenty five at bats, one sixty average,
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: six hundred ohps isn't good because he allowed the two
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: of them runs to Campasano and she's three strikeouts, no walks.
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: You know, I think I will still lean over in
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: this game given all that. Well, I don't know though,
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: because san Diego's bullpen is just is good. But like
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: I say, if the starting pitchers do bad, the bullpens
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: have to come in early. You know, I would not
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: want to be on an under in this game, let's
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: just put it that way. Seventy percent of tickets on
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: the over, fifty five percent of the cash on the
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: under I think I'm gonna lean over. But and again
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: the total is way high for a reason. I think
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lead Colorado slightly here as well. San Diego
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: at minus one fifty Right now, I don't know if
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: Bueller should be that much of a favorite on the
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: road man seventy seven percent of tickets eighty seven percent
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: of the cash on San Diego. I think Sugano might
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: actually be a little bit more trustworthy than Bueller, getting
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: him as an underdog. You know, maybe you go first
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: five with it, because San Diego does have the better bullpen,
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: So probably a slight lean towards Colorado first five there.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: But I don't love the game at all, all right,
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: And then I think I forgot to mention. Oh no,
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: I did. I did look at Bueller's overall numbers. I
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: don't know if I mentioned them, but eighteen to six
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio and fewer than one hit all out
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: for inning in seventeen to two thirds innings or whatever
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: that was. Excuse me, So, yeah, Bueller's overall numbers are
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: not really that bad right now. White Sox at Arizona.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, I first look at this and I'm thinking
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: over because I don't I don't trust Arizona's bullpen despite
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: what they've done so far. White Sox bullpen is not good.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: Yesterday's game went way over the total eleven to five
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: Chicago win. The White Sox somehow put up eleven runs
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: in that game, so that does not speak well for
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: Arizona's bullpen. That looks good this year, but I keep
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: telling you they're not. They used four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: the White Sox used two. I think both bullpens are fadable.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: I know Arizona's they're tied for the second best whip,
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: but their era is worse than all these bullpens around them.
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: They stunk last year. I think they still don't even
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: have a left handed arm in there. They're not a
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: good bullpen, dude, even though they pitched well so far
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: this year. I'll give them the better bullpen than the
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: White Sox. Okay, I won't be that insane. I think
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: I said the same thing yesterday. White Sox have the
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: second worst bullpen whip and they're near the bottom in
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: RAY as well. Hitting wise, Chicago, the White Sox got
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: up to twenty first in ops just with what they
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: did yesterday, so it's still early on man Arizona's eighteenth
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: and hitting. I think Arizona is the better offense, though.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: I think there's pretty much no question about that. White
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: Sox have Anthony k pitching, which does not inspire confidence
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: in me. I know, his season numbers look fine, two
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: point six ERA, one point two to seven WHIP. He's
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: kind of a converted reliever though he's gone past five
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: innings once this season. And yeah, he hasn't been that bad.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: He's given up two or fewer runs in every outing,
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: but he's got a twelve to nine strikeout walk ratio
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: in seventeen to third innings. I can't trust numbers like that.
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: A high fly ball rate in Arizona, which is a
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly ballpark that's not gonna play well, I don't
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: think again, way too many walks, he hasn't allowed them,
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: and he hits though, thirteen hits in seventeen to third innings. Yeah,
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: I still don't trust him though. Plus he's a thirty
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: one year old with a career RAY above five. Yeah,
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't like what I'm seeing here. He's
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: going up against e rod At Eduardo Rodriguez, who I
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: believe was part of one of the Red Sox World
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: Series winning teams. He used to be good. I think
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: he's dealt with injuries and you know, his career is
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: kind of just fallen off. But his numbers are pretty
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: good this year so far. One point nine to six
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: ERA one point two two whip here for Arizona. Again,
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: not a good strikeout walk ratio, though his strike out
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: rate is way down, which basically means that his velocity
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: hasn't really come back. That's not good. Fourteen strikeouts and
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: twenty three innings along with nine walks, so he actually
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: has kind of similar numbers to what we just saw
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: with k Nineteen hits in twenty three innings. That's good.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: So again he hasn't allowed them and he hits too
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: many walks. Though strike out rates not good, high fly
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: ball rate might not play well in the stadium. He
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: seems to be trending in the wrong direction because he's
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: walked multiple guys in his last two outings, got beat
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: up a bit by Baltimore, which was on the road.
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: He's been better His one home start was his best
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: start of the season against the Braves. They lost two
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: to nothing, but he shut them out for seven innings.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: That's a decent sign that he pitched well at home.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: But I just don't know, man, what did his switz
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: look like last year? Let me see, No, I mean,
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: he was slightly worse at home last year, so he
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: did not have good home roads splits last year. So
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not ready to say that he's just good at
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: home or something. Maybe he'll do okay against the White Sox,
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: but I don't know, because his numbers aren't really that
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: good against them. Twenty four at bats, eight to one,
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: streke a walk ratio two ninety two, batting average allowed
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: seven thirty seven ops. It's not the worst numbers here,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: you know, not too many extra base hits in here,
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: but StrEG a walk ratio is good, but the batting
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: average is high. I don't know if he's fully trustworthy.
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: I think an over is probably, you know, my preferred
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: approach in this game. The number is pretty high. It's
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: at nine, sitting between nine and a half and nine.
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: Juice to the over. Money's coming in on the under.
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: I don't really agree with that. Seventy percent of tickets
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: on the over seventy five percent of the cash on
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: the under. I think I would play it over. I
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: would try to get the nine. If you're actually gonna
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: do that, go up to about minus one twenty to
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: get it over nine, so you don't have to lay
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: the hook with the nine and a half, which means
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: that you're gonna need an extra run there, which, of
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: course that nine is the key number because it breaks
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: the four to four tie. The odd numbers are all key.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: Arizona's a minus one fifty favorite, by the way, and
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: they're insanely public ninety two percent of the tickets and
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: only ninety percent of the cash on them, so it
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: looks like the money is fading the Diamondbacks here and
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: taking the White Sox. I would not want to do that.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: There's just no way. How can you trust whatever the
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: White Socks are doing with they're pitching here, I don't
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: think so. At least e Rod you're gonna kind of
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: at least a proven starter with him, So yeah, I
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: don't know. And I think Arizona does have a slightly
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: better bullpen and offense, so yeah, I would not play
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: the White Sox there. Even though the money looks like
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: it's saying that that's the that's the way to look there. Uh,
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: Dodgers at San Francisco. We did get the win with
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: the under in this game last night. As I said,
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: despite San Francisco getting three runs in the first inning,
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: they never scored again. So I'm pretty sure Yamamoto settled
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: down nicely there. San Francisco got the win in the
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: return home spot, which is crazy. Could be bounced back
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: time for the Dodgers here and men, I mean San Francisco,
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: that's a big win for them beating the Dodgers. Of course,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna overlook the Dodgers here, but the Dodgers
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: might show up with a little bit more intensity after
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: that better team coming off a loss. As far as
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: the bullpens are concerned, San Francisco they do have a
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: good bullpend, but they used five relief pitchers yesterday, so
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: that's not good. So their bullpen's kind of used now.
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: Todd was only just one Tanner Scott, So the Dodgers
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: bullpen rest edge might help them out a bit here.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: They're tied and whip with San Francisco around eighth ninth,
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: but San Francisco does have the better era out of
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: the bullpen, I do think they have the better bullpen,
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: but the Dodgers' willpen looks improved this year and with
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: the rest here, I think the bullpens are pretty much
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: a wash here, maybe even a slight edge to the
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: Dodgers just because of the rest. Dodgers have a significantly
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: better offense that's not in question. Again, number one in offense,
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: and it's by a gigantic margin. I mean, look at
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: their ops. Their OPS is eight fifty six and Houston
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: is second at seven to ninety. It's unbelievable. And batting
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: average to eighty six for the Dodgers. The next best
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: is Atlanta at two seventy two. Yeah, this Dodgers' offense,
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: they're number one by a wide margin in most categories
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: that matter. Giants are not good at third worst in ops. So, yes,
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: we have a huge offensive edge of the Dodgers here,
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: but good pitching can overcome a good hitting here. But
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: San Francisco I don't consider they're starting to be good pitching.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: Though Dodgers have Shoheltani pitching. He's been good point five
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: Vra point seven to two whip I mean, we know
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: he's mister baseball. Basically, he's a really good hitter and
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: a really good pitcher. He's got a good ground ball
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: rate this year, more ground balls than fly balls, eighteen
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: to six strike out walk ratio, seven hits allowed in
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: eighteen innings over three starts. Yeah, he's been good. He's
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: allowed one earned run all season. It was hilariously to
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: the Mats who can't hit. But he's still got to
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: win in that one and struck out ten in that game. Yeah,
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously he's in good form right now. He's good.
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: We know all this against San Francisco's hitters, which ESPN
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: is actually giving me the hitters right now because they're
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: listening him as a starting pitcher, Thank you, ESPN. Fifty
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: one at bats, he's heeling to a one to seventy
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: six batting average and five point fifty oh ps eighteen
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: to four strike out walk ratio. That's all good. He
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: pretty much dominates San Francisco when he faces them in
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: a decent sized sample. Tyler Moley is pitching for the Giants.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: He was decent last year for Texas, but man, it
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: seems like Texas they get the most out of all
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: their pitchers, because even though San Francisco they're known for
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: their good pitching recently as well, not from this guy.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: Seven point two to three ERA, one point nine to
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: three whip. That's some bad stuff. And he's had three
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: of his starts at home this year too, so not
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: a good sign. Man. This is where it's more pitcher friendly.
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: He got blasted by the Mets in his worst home start.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: That's not good. Twenty one to twelve strike out walk
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: ratio overall, that's battle those ground ball rate is pretty good.
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: That's way too many walks and too many hits. On
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: top of that, twenty four hits in eighteen to two
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: of those innings. None of this is good. Now. He
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: is coming off his worst start of the season at Cincinnati.
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: It's a hitter, a friendly ballpark, a pitching nightmare there.
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: He had five walks and four home runs allowed in
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: that game and eight hits and allowed only eight runs
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: in the game, which you would you would have expected
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: it to be more given all those other numbers. I
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: don't think we could trust Molly here right now. Man.
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: Against the Dodgers, his numbers are not horrible, but they're
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: not good. In seventy one at bats sixteen to eight,
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: strike up walk raceio to sixty eight. Batting average allowed,
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: uh seven ninety two ops. Not exactly great, not the
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: worst that I've seen, but yeah, I mean I think
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers are probably the right side here. But also
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think you can lay minus tooh five either. Like,
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win the game ninety percent of tickets,
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the casual on the Dodgers. How
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: do we want to approach this? Though? We think the
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: Dodgers do have a starting pitching edge, they have a
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: bullpen rest edge. Their bullpen is not really that bad.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: They're hitting is a huge advantage. I don't think you
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: lay minus twoh five money line though. On the road
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: man total is low at seven and a half, which
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: is kind of crazy. I don't know, I really don't
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: know what the best approach is. I mean, San Francisco
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: under their team total kind of makes some sense. But
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: you're really gonna need San Francisco to score very few
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: runs here, Like you're probably gonna need to be held
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: to two runs in the game. Probably if you do that,
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: you go Dodgers over their team total and need them
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: to score probably four or so more, maybe more than four,
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: which isn't horrible. Yeah, I don't know, man, I don't
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: know what the best approach is here. Uh, you know,
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 1: a Dodgers. This might be a rare situation where a
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: Dodger run line might actually make sense here, But the
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: total is so low, and baseball such a low scoring sport.
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: I would worry about that quite a bit. So I
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, But yeah, I think the Dodgers do
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: probably win this game. Maybe. I hate parlays, but if
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: you want a moneyline, parlay them. Maybe. But the Dodgers
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: are also really public. Ninety seven percent of tickets nine cash.
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: I don't buy that number. But yeah, I mean, I
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: just don't see the Dodgers losing that game. I don't.
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: All right, NHL, we got some playoffs here. I'm gonna
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 1: have a play in one of the games, which I
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: think is the first game up. All these games are
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: on TN T through TV, HBO, Max or TBS, so
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: you know the Turner networks are or what's the world
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: I'm airing all these games here. Pittsburgh got Philadelphia. This
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a best bet. Let's do it. I
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: don't want to do it. I don't like taking teams
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: that have the worst goaltending, but you know, in the
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: worst defense, we're gonna do it here. Pittsburgh as an
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: underdog here, we're gonna do it. I mean, I think
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: one thing that will help them is they have a
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: huge fan base and they're staying in the state of Pennsylvania.
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: So this is the closest series geographically, So I think
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: the road factor matters a little bit less in this
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: series than it does in other series of the road
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: team has won both games so far in the series,
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: and by the way, Pittsburgh including overtime loss, is there
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 1: one game above five hundred on the road, which is
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: not that bad. Philadelphia is one game below five hundred
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: at home, So the home road on numbers don't look
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: that bad for playing the road team here. And while yes,
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: I do not like Pittsburgh's goaltending, I don't like Skinner.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: Vladar is the better goaltender for Philadelphie here. He's not
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: like an elite goalie though. And while yes, Philadelphia has
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: the better deepfense, whatever this is a zigzag spot, right,
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 1: I think we do make the play here. Philadelphia won
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: both games on the road here, man, so It's like,
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: this is it for Pittsburgh here, you know what I mean?
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: If they lose, they go down three to zero and
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: they have to play another road game. Yeah, it's Cyanara.
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 1: They're not coming back from down three to all. Although
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: I know it happens in hockey more than any other
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: sport though, because hockey is a close sport and unfortunately
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 1: happened to my Bruins at the hands of Philadelphia. And
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: I think it's happened maybe five times in the NHL
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: and once in Baseball, which of course we know is
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox against the Yankees and the four Alcs,
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: and I believe it has not happened ever in the NBA.
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: Celtics almost did it and probably should have against the
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: Heat a couple of years ago. But no, anyway, Yeah, Pittsburgh,
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get an extreme amount of motivation from them.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: Where's Philadelphia? They just won both games in Pittsburgh, man,
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: so I think Philadelphia. It might be a spot where
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: maybe there is like a little bit of an emotional
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: let up here. This is why the zigzag works. Pittsburgh's
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: gonna have the adjustments to make here. The result in
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: the second game was really bad. For Pittsburgh three to nothing,
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: whereas the first game was really competitive, really close. But
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: if you look at this three nothing result here in
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: the last game, it was kind of misleading. Dude. It
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: was one nothing until Philadelphia scored a short handed goal,
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 1: which is a rarity, and then there was an empty
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: net goal at the end of the game. So this
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: game was definitely closer than the scoring makes it look.
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh did have more shot the game all the Philadelphia
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: was expectedly the more physical team, more hits, more face
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: offs one which is the concern that, yes, that's why
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: I picked Philadelphia in my bracket to win the series,
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: because I think they're the better team defensively, physically, goaltending
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: that matters in the playoffs. But yeah, again, this is
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: a spot play here where I think Pittsburgh does get
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: a game here, and we're getting them as an underdog.
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: We're gonna do it. I think they have the adjustments
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: that they can make here. Again, I don't want to
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: repeat myself, but yeah, the money is also agreeing with
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: me here. Philadelphia is at minus one seventeen sixty one
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, Pittsburgh fifty two percent of
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. Now I think Philadelphia is actually
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: the slightly better team and maybe should be favored a
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: little bit more heavily than this, because I think the
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers they're so aware of the zigzag that they're lining
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: in this a little bit light on Philadelphia. Yet the
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: money is still hitting Pittsburgh here. We're gonna do it,
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: you know, in a situation like this, I think as
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: long as you get a little bit of an underdog price,
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: I like it. Basically gets have picked the winner. We'll
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: do it. Penguin's money line is the play there, and
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: hopefully our hockey continues. We're one zero to one right
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: now in hockey in the playoffs, I should say Dallas
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: at Minnesota goes into Game three with a split series.
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 1: This is the type of game, right I think, you know,
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: looking towards an under kind of makes a little bit
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: more sense because you're gonna get intensity on the depense
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: out of both teams. The under is getting money in
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: both of these games. By the way, all three games
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: are indicating towards the under. By the way, I don't
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: really do much with totals here, especially not unders. But
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: then again, you know, with like less rest, I worry
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: about the unders a little bit more because the defenses
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: are a little bit less rested. But you could see
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: a lot of defensive intensity in this one. Minnesota won
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: Game one in Dallas. Dallas swung it in one Game two,
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: which was our first winner in hockey, our first playoff
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: hockey play of the year. Dallas got the win. Is
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 1: this going to zigzag back to Minnesota here? I don't know.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: You're getting Dallas as an underdog here, and I think
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 1: Dallas is the better team in some ways. They're the
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: more experienced team, They're more used to this. They've been
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: to the conference finals multiple times recently. Minnesota's been in
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, hasn't really gotten over the hump yet, and yeah,
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: this could be the time that they do it. I
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: don't know, though, man, looking at the teams, you know,
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: home versus road splits here, Dallas was actually very good
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: on the road twenty four to nine and eight. Minnesota
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: was pretty good at home twenty three, ten and eight.
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 1: But yeah, really really good numbers from Dallas on the road, man,
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: actually even slightly better than the Minnesota's home record. So
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: Dallas is good on the road and getting them as
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: an underdog here with the more experience. I think Attinger
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: is the better goaltender despite a bad game in Game one.
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: Looking at Game two, it wasn't really misleading, I don't
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: think in really many ways. Even though I said Minnesota
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 1: did kind of outplay Dallas a little bit, not really
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: on the final box score here a little bit. Minnesota
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 1: did have more hits and more face offs by a
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: little bit, but not much. Dallas outshot the Dallas did
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: have an empty net goal at the end of the game,
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: but they were winning by two in the third period
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 1: before that as well. Yeah, the money is coming in
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: towards Minnesota here though, fifty seven percent of tickets and
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: only fifty five percent of the cash on Dallas. Dallas
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: looks like a public underdog, which is never really what
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 1: you want. So the money is indicating on Minnesota here.
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument for it that it is
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 1: the zigzag, although I think I slightly lean towards Dallas
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: at the dog price there. And yes, I know I
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: picked Dallas to win this series in my Bracket two.
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: But we're gonna get some of these series wrong, man.
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, hockey is just very hard to predict. It's
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: you know, it's just such a close game. You gotta
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: really pick your spots and just hit them right, man.
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: And then we have Anaheim and Edmonton, which is the
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: latest series to start. They're only on game two here.
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: Anaheim put up a huge fighting Game one and Edmonton
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 1: wound up winning four to three, which might have been
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: an overtime Game two. No, it wasn't. Edmonton scored two
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: goals in the third piece area to win. Though they
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: were losing this game three to two. Yeah, and it
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: was getting late, it was looking like Anaheim might be
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 1: able to win that game. Brutal loss for Anaheim. I
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 1: think that's bad for Anaheim. Even though I said this
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: about the Bruins last night, and the Bruins looked pretty
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 1: good last night. Anaheim, after almost beating Edmonton in Game
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: one like that and falling short like that, they could
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: be a little bit flat coming into this game, you
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. Whereas even though Anaheim, you know,
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: down one to oh, they're gonna be putting in an effort, obviously,
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: But Edmonton just got kind of a scare. Man. So
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: the better team coming off a scare versus the lesser
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: team coming off almost pulling off the upset, I wouldn't
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 1: be able to play Anaheim here, man, I think Edmonton
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: might have an easier time of it in this game.
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: I know, I don't like Edmonton's goaltending at all. I
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: don't think Edmonton's gonna go that far this year, but
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: you know, they're decent at home. Anaheim is just not
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: good on the road, though. Anaheim is much much better
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: at home. So I think if Anaheim gets annihilated in
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: this game, Anaheim at whole in Game three, maybe a play.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: But we'll wait and see what happens here. But I
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 1: think Edmonton wins this game. They're getting the money. They're
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: at minus one eighty eighty one percent of the tickets,
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: ninety seven percent of the cash on Edmonton. They're getting
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: the money. It would be like a puck line approach.
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: Maybe you play Edmonton, you could go over Edmonton's team total,
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: maybe because the total is high. It's like seven in
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: this game, which is basically unheard of in hockey, especially
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: in playoff hockey. Oddsmakers not liking these deepfenses and goalies
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 1: at all. And you know there is reason for that. Yeah,
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, Edmonton over their team total makes some sense.
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: But you're gonna even probably score four goals again like
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: they did in the other game, which is a little
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: bit questionable, but maybe they do it again otherwise because
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: it is a high score, a high total. Maybe you
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: could actually go puck line in that game, make your
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: own minus one puck line like I did last night.
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 1: All right, and then we have NBA. We're gonna have
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: a play in the NBA. And the market is not
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 1: agreeing with me on this. Whatever, man, these games are
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: on ESPN. We're gonna zig zag it and we are
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: gonna go with the best bet in this first game here.
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 1: I was eyeing it as soon as that first game,
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: like even in the middle of this first game, I
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 1: was like, we're gonna come back with Detroit in game
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 1: two here, and that is what we're gonna do. Hold on,
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: I gotta put it into the system here still whoops, Yeah,
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 1: here it is Detroit minus eight and a half is
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 1: what we're gonna do here. Man. I know, Orlando, you know,
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, they've surprised everybody. They blew out Charlotte to
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: get into the eighth spot here. After it looked like
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: they were done and there were rumors that they're quitting
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: on their coach and whatever. Obviously, they're not doing that
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: now they're in the playoffs. I told you guys, I
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: liked Orlando to cover in the first game. I think
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 1: Detroit is a weak one seed. As I said, you know,
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: I have them getting bounced by Cleveland in my bracket.
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: I still don't think they're gonna lose this series, though
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: there's still the better team. They're still at home. And
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: while yes, I like Orlando's experience, the other thing that
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: Orlando had going for them in Game one was the
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: momentum because they had won that playing game, you know
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: what I mean, So they were used to playing. They
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: had just won. They actually didn't have to put in
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: a huge effort in that game, and they were playing
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: a Detroit team that could have cooled off big time
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: with too much rest. So I think some of that
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: factored into that game as well. Orlando got off to
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 1: a good start and never looked back and won the game.
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 1: But now we get a zigzag spot here, man, and
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have the same thing on the Celtics in
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 1: game three. Spoiler. I'm almost positive that's gonna be a
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: play for us on the show, laying the points with
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 1: the Celtics in Game three. But that one's probably better
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: than this one, but still I like this. When you
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 1: have a team they fall down OH one at home,
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: they're the big favorite in the series. They're the better team.
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: You want to play them in game two on the
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 1: zig zag man because they're gonna be able to make
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: the adjustments. They can't fall down oh two at home,
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 1: and I know they can win without covering, but I
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: think if they win, they're also gonna cover here. Yeah,
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: like I said, Orlando does have experience, I know, uh,
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 1: but Detroit is still the more talented team here. Cad
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 1: Cunningham is back. I mean, he looked good in Game one,
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: so I don't think his lung injury is that much
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 1: of a problem. Duran is really the question mark with Detroit.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: He's one of their best players and he had a
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 1: really lackluster Game one. But I think he should do
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 1: a lot better here in game two. And if we
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 1: look at that game one, there are some elements of
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: this box score that do make me think that this
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: will be a zigzag here. Mostly the Detroit just shot
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 1: terribly in the game. They shot forty percent from the field. Yeah,
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: Orlando did have more possessions in the game sort of,
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: but Detroit went to the line way more, and yet
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 1: that actually does worry me that Detroit had way more
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 1: free throws in the game, because if you have that
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: and you still lose, something else went wrong. But I
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 1: just told you what went wrong. They couldn't hit any shots,
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 1: so I think they'll shoot better than this in this game.
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 1: Orlando's shot close to fifty percent, so there might be
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 1: some regression in store from them there. The three point
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 1: shooting was bad on both sides. That was kind of
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 1: a Yes, Orlando did win the rebound battle, but don't
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 1: know if that's gonna happen again here. I don't know
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 1: how repeatable that really is. Neither team is really that
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 1: good of a paint team. But what makes me think
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: that Orlando might not win the rebound battle this time
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 1: is again that Detroit was kind of dominating in the
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: paint if they got that many free throws, So you know,
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 1: the paint numbers weren't all good for Orlando here. Detroit
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 1: lost the turnover battle as well, which is part of
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: the reason why Orlando had more field goal attempts. Don't
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 1: know if that's gonna happen again either. That's something you
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 1: could definitely clean up usually the home team wins the
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 1: turnover battle. So there are some things it's not extreme,
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: like that one with Houston yesterday that we still wound
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 1: up losing because Houston decided to pull the same thing
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 1: again in game two and shoot terribly again and have
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 1: no positive regression, and the Lakers were hitting over fifty
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: percent of three point range for the majority of the
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 1: game again, which is completely unsustainable. Whatever, I'm fucking pissed
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 1: about it. But yes, we're gonna lay the points with
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: Detroit here. The money's not agreeing with me, and I
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 1: don't understand. I mean, maybe the market will change by
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 1: the time the game happens, because I'm relying on how
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 1: I handicap playoff basketball. Man. I don't want to get
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 1: off to an zero to two start in the NBA.
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 1: I really don't, because my NBA has been good. Minus
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: eight and a half is the number here. You might
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 1: have to lay minus nine. It's not really much of
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 1: a difference here. It's about the same as it was
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 1: in Game one. It was about a nine point spread
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 1: in Game one, so the oddsmakers haven't really adjusted to it.
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: Fifty eight percent of tickets, fifty six percent of the
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: cash on the Pistons. So the money is coming in
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: on the against the Pistons a little bit here. Yeah,
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: that worries me a little bit, but we're still gonna
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 1: go with it. The total looks like it's taking some
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 1: money on the over. It's gone up a little bit
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 1: to too, eighteen and a half. The over, I think
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: is going to help the Pistons here. It's gonna help
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 1: the favorite cover by a margin, you know what I mean.
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 1: A higher scoring game makes it more likely fifty six
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the under sixty three percent of
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. So money is hitting the
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 1: over there for what that's worth. But we're gonna lay
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 1: the points with Detroit in this one. I think they
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: bounce back. I think they win the game pretty easily here.
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: That's what we're gonna go with. But yes, I do
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 1: worry that the market read does not agree with me.
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 1: But again, the one good thing is the books know
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 1: about the zigzag, dude, because it was such a phenomenon.
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 1: Like I remember having an amazing twenty fourteen in the
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: NBA playoffs, and right around that time, the books really
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: had to start adjusting to the zigzag. But if they
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: were doing that here they would have to move this
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: price higher, like it would be like Pistons minus ten,
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: and they haven't done that here. So I think we're
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: getting the team in the adjustment spot and not having
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 1: to lay a bigger price. So give me it will
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 1: lay the points of the Pistons. And then the other game.
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: We only have two NBA games today. The other game
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: is Suns Thunder. You know, I mean the money is
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 1: coming in on Phoenix in this one. I just I
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 1: don't know if they have enough. Man, Oklahoma City really
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: did trounce them in game one. Maybe Oklahoma City does
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 1: kind of just have a let up in game two.
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 1: Maybe they just kind of sleep walk through this game.
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 1: I could see that happening. Ohthough, Oklahoma City is the
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: way better team, the way deeper team. They're really good
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 1: at home. I don't think I want to actually put
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: my money on Phoenix. I'll lean that way, but I
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 1: don't want to do it. Thunder did drop from nineteen
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 1: and a half to seventeen. Here the total's gone up
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 1: to two fifteen and a half, but now money is
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: coming back in on the under. It is the lower
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: of the two totals, which does kind of help if
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 1: you really want to take the points with the Suns here.
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 1: If it's lower scoring, it'll help them stay within this
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: number a little bit. Do I think the Thunder are
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 1: gonna lose? No, but I would lean to the Suns
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 1: plus the points slightly here. Don't love it, though, seventy
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 1: six percent to take a seventy two percent of the
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 1: cash on the Thunder, So the money is indicating in
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: the Sun's direction there plus the points. Again, the Thunder
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 1: might just not take the Sun seriously at this point.
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 1: The Suns did beat the Thunder by thirty something points
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 1: in Oklahoma City in the last regar season game, but again,
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 1: the Thunder played none of their players in that game.
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: The Suns I think might have mostly played bench players too,
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 1: But that games is a complete throwaway. But I think
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 1: it did have the Thunder more focus in game one
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 1: of this series, so I handicapped that game. There were
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: factors going both ways there, but the fact that the
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 1: Thunder won by like thirty something points, Yeah, I mean,
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 1: they might have a little bit of an ease up
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 1: on the gas here, you know what I mean, Like
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 1: they don't need to go all out to win this game,
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 1: and they want to save some of their energy because
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 1: it's a long playoff run, you know what I mean.
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: So they do not have very much motivation to blow
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 1: the Suns out again here yet what I'm saying, they
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 1: don't want it to be too close for comfort, but
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 1: they could definitely win this game even by double digits
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 1: without covering. So yeah, I'm making what sounds like a
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 1: stronger case for Phoenix, but it's a light lean for
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 1: maybe towards Phoenix. I don't want to do it. That's it, man,
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 1: those are the games today, the games one more time.
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 1: Were doing a split bet run line money line on
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: the Mariners in baseball, even though they are a pretty
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 1: substantial favorite. I like it. I think it's misleading that
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 1: they have a lesser record. They're actually the better team.
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 1: They're at home, they have the better starting pitcher, they
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen. In my opinion, they I think
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: they're hitting should start hitting better. Yeah, we're going with
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 1: Seattle and then NHL playoffs who got Pittsburgh money line
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 1: and NBA were laying the points with Detroit in the
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 1: zigzag We're zigzagging in both of those. We're gonna that's
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 1: gonna do it, man, Learn a tone on Twitter, Learn
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 1: it tone on Instagram. Check it out. Get more people
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 1: to subscribe here, man, that's what we need. Subscribe and
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 1: you get the notifications when I go live. Let's do it. Man.
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 1: By the way, I did talk to Clint as far
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 1: as because I wanted him to do a ball that
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 1: episode with me. I forget exactly, I forget exactly what
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 1: he said. I think his phone was silent or something.
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know. He just never got the I don't
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 1: know it was because I messaged him on Twitter. He never
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 1: got the notification for my message. Man, that socks because
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 1: it would have been fun to have him on. But
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be making fun of me right now because
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 1: he he he is a Lakers fan. But I'm telling
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 1: you right now, I yeah, even if the Lakers win
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 1: this series, it's kind of a bullshit win and they're
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 1: not gonna get past Oklahoma City. So those are my
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 1: thoughts on that. Anyway, Like, subscribe here, tell everybody about
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 1: the show. I appreciate everybody. We're on audio as well.
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 1: The audio numbers have been going up, although I want
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 1: to get them way way up, which I don't know
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 1: how we can do that. But we are on audio, Apple, Spotify,
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: give me good reviews over there, tell everybody about it,
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Put it in your podcast players, throw it
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 1: on in the background, whatever you want. That helps me out.
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 1: But it is monetized to their ads over there. Covered
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 1: in yuke. It is my yuke channel on YouTube. You
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 1: can check that out. Haven't kept up with it, I
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 1: know my yuke playing is just yeah, I don't know, man,
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: haven't been doing as much of it. I got to think, like,
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm thinking about maybe just merging into this channel,
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 1: but I don't really know yet. I got to figure
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 1: something out, as I keep saying, but I gotta get
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 1: on that. I just I haven't really fully thought about,
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 1: like like how that's gonna play out. So I don't
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 1: know what else do we have to to plug here
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com, slash and learn to toad or I
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 1: know I'm not really doing much over there right now.
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 1: I apologize, guys. Loser Cast we had an episode last
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 1: night Milay. It was my h Well, I don't want
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 1: to spoil it if you guys haven't watched it yet,
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: but he's who I went with for my loser. If
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 1: you want to vote for my loser. There were some
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 1: sports aspects to it yesterday too though, like the Mets
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 1: are in the running for the Loser of the Week
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 1: as well, and because they lost every game during the
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 1: entire week too, So good good pick from Leighton and
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 1: g Spot the Giants podcast that I'm on with Ben Weir,
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 1: and we had to Adam Nudder on for it as well.
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 1: They're both Giant fans. You can find that that's on YouTube,
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 1: I think at Giants g Spot. If you go to
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 1: my link tree that's on Twitter. I don't worry. I
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 1: fixed the color scheme because I realized it was white
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 1: on white. I don't know how that happened. Link tree
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 1: must have changed something, but I fixed it. So you
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 1: can go check check out my link tree. Everything is there.
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 1: The g Spot Giants podcast is there. We did a
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 1: little bit of a draft preview. I know the draft
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 1: starts tomorrow. I just I don't do draft betting for
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 1: the NFL. Man. I'm gonna do an NFL Total special,
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 1: like I said, season win totals after the draft. At
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 1: some point That'll be coming up, so subscribe for that
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 1: and you'll get the notifications when I go live with that. Otherwise, obviously,
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 1: I'll be live tomorrow with a shorter baseball card tomorrow
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 1: and more playoffs to talk about, and I think that's it. Obviously,
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 1: Mendoza is gonna go first in the draft to the
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 1: to the UH Raiders. Okay, that's all we know. But
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 1: other than that, yeah, it's it's really kind of a
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 1: you know, anybody's guess what happens after that in the draft.
• 1:58:45
  Speaker 1: I think it'll be interesting to see what happens. That's
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. I appreciate everybody. Peace,