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Episode 354 - 9/17/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to Episode 3. 54.
• 0:23
  Of the All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by
• 0:27
  rhythm. I am your host Josh Applebaum.
• 0:35
  What's going on everyone? Happy hump day.
• 0:37
  You know what it is it's Wednesday halfway through our
• 0:39
  work week guys. We're going to continue to look
• 0:41
  at some early sharp line moves here in the world of football
• 0:45
  and really this is our new routines.
• 0:47
  I try to really instill this and again kind of get everyone into
• 0:49
  the routine of hey, you know we'll have the games of of you
• 0:52
  know Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football,
• 0:55
  obviously have college game sprinkle then but what are we
• 0:57
  going to do throughout the week? We're not going to just twiddle
• 1:00
  our thumbs and just, you know, wait for the next game and just,
• 1:03
  you know, do nothing until the next game comes.
• 1:05
  No, we want to put in some work. We want to track the lines, get
• 1:08
  a feel for the games, which direction the line is moving,
• 1:10
  the splits, the system matches, and then hopefully pick off some
• 1:13
  good numbers early in the week that we can then look back on
• 1:16
  and hopefully benefit from. So today guys, we are going to
• 1:19
  have our early NFL Sharp report for the upcoming week.
• 1:22
  I do have 3 plays overall that caught my eye, three of which
• 1:25
  I've already bet and a couple of them there's still a really good
• 1:28
  number at a book or two. We can get a better price by
• 1:31
  shopping for the best line and getting the best number and
• 1:34
  using your. Odds logic.
• 1:35
  Live odds. Page to find the book giving you
• 1:38
  an outlier or a better price. So 3 plays in the NFL to talk
• 1:41
  about. Also have a crazy stat betting
• 1:44
  system talking about teams that are O and two and dogs getting
• 1:47
  points in week 3. So there's a ton of matches this
• 1:50
  week and I'll give you more information.
• 1:51
  It's kind of the ultimate buy low.
• 1:53
  You're O and two, you public thinks you stink.
• 1:55
  You're a dog getting points. No way you should even touch
• 1:57
  them. But actually they've been pretty
• 1:59
  good historically. And I also want to again,
• 2:02
  hopefully get good numbers that look good later in the week
• 2:04
  because yesterday we talked about Texas Tech.
• 2:06
  That was a game that really caught my eye for this upcoming
• 2:09
  weekend. Texas Tech in Utah, they are
• 2:11
  plus 4 1/2 down to 3 1/2. We talked about getting the hook
• 2:15
  3 1/2 yesterday. Well, there's only one 3 1/2
• 2:18
  left. ESPN Bet Plus 3 1/2 - 125 pretty
• 2:21
  much. Every other book is at. 3 So
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  it's kind of a last call on a, on a team like Texas Tech
• 2:26
  getting the hook. And I don't need to tell you how
• 2:28
  important the hooks are because obviously you get to, you know,
• 2:32
  Tennessee plus 3 1/2 lose by three.
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  We had Iowa a couple weeks ago plus 3 1/2 lose by three.
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  The hooks are really what you want to focus on early in the
• 2:40
  week, especially around a key number.
• 2:42
  So with that being said, we are going to talk NFL and we're also
• 2:46
  going to have one baseball game for you.
• 2:48
  I do have one play in baseball that caught my eye with a really
• 2:51
  good sharp line move, good splits, good system matches.
• 2:54
  Excuse me. So we'll hit on that here in a
• 2:56
  second. So a lot of NFL talk, some
• 2:58
  baseball talk. That will be our Wednesday pod.
• 3:01
  Now, looking back toward yesterday, guys, another
• 3:03
  frustrating night. 1 and 2 -, 1.17 units.
• 3:06
  Did have a nice hit with the Mets.
• 3:09
  That's where a team that I think we're one and eight, their last
• 3:11
  nine, but they had a good sharp blind move.
• 3:13
  We trusted the market. They're like -110 up to -120 -,
• 3:17
  125. They came through 1/8 to three.
• 3:20
  But that's where our luck ended because the Red Sox, they're
• 3:23
  making me sweat. Are they really not going to go
• 3:25
  over 85 1/2 wins? This is really, there's 11 games
• 3:28
  left. They're at 82.
• 3:29
  They need four wins. They can go four and seven the
• 3:31
  rest of the way and still cash this over.
• 3:33
  But man, the Red Sox let us down last night.
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  Connor Lee early, who is a rookie and just a really looks
• 3:40
  really good. 5 innings, no runs pitched, absolutely great.
• 3:44
  Alex Cora pulls him go. Greg Weiser comes in, blows it.
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  Socks are down 2 to one. And then their bats go silent.
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  They can't do anything the rest of the night.
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  They lose 2 to one when they're up on nothing and in command.
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  So that that sucked. And then the other one was the
• 3:58
  Dodgers. Man, that Dodgers game, oh, I
• 4:01
  think it took 10 years off my life.
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  Not in a good way. Sometimes it takes 10 years off
• 4:04
  your life, you win and you're like, oh, it was all worth it.
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  No Dodgers. Shohei Otani throws a no hitter
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  through 5 innings, but they pull him because he's got all the arm
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  injuries and they're up four to nothing only.
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  To give up 6. Runs in the top of the sixth as
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  soon as they pull Otani 4. Nothing lead.
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  Feeling good, at least after the Red Sox.
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  Hey, two in one night. Dodgers will come through,
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  right? Nope.
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  They bring in some kid Roblewski who gets lit up, gives up I
• 4:30
  think six runs and then they actually claw back and tie it
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  back up six to six. Only in the butt in the top of
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  the ninth for Blake Training to give up a three run home run by
• 4:40
  to the backup catcher Marshawn. So that was just disgusting.
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  The Dodgers there 4 nothing, lead in command.
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  Blow it, come back, blow it again.
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  So Mr. Training and Mr. Roblewski giving up, what, eight
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  runs? Appreciate it guys.
• 4:54
  Thanks a lot so that's baseball right now for you guys.
• 4:57
  I could have had more baseball bets today, but I don't know how
• 5:00
  how much I can continue to bang my head against the wall,
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  beating sharp line moves and just teams imploding that that's
• 5:06
  just it's weird right now in MLB.
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  So we're probably better off just with one play and try to
• 5:10
  eke out of one and O that is the goal.
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  With that being said, let's talk about the NFL week 3 slate
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  because we already have, of course, a bunch of movement,
• 5:19
  bunch of system matches and let's see if we can hopefully
• 5:21
  get some good numbers early that make us happy by the time the
• 5:24
  the weekend rolls around. So the first thing I want to
• 5:27
  give you was a stat. This is stat that is is is kind
• 5:30
  of a crazy one, but I did write about it in my book, my new
• 5:33
  book, the NFL sharp betting playbook.
• 5:34
  And really early in the year there are certain situational
• 5:37
  spots. And when you get to week 3, one
• 5:40
  that really jumps out to me is if you are O and two, so you've
• 5:44
  played two games, you lost them both your O and two going into
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  week 3, you're a dog in week 3. So public thinks you're
• 5:51
  terrible. You've lost both of your first
• 5:52
  games. No one wants to touch you.
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  Your dog getting points. That's actually, believe it or
• 5:57
  not, a great buy law opportunity.
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  So NFL teams that are Owen to their dogs in week 3 getting
• 6:02
  points, they've actually gone 37 and 17 ATS 69% with a 32% ROI
• 6:09
  since 2017. So there are a lot.
• 6:12
  I'm not saying play every one of these.
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  I'm not saying you know, you know, these are auto bets.
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  I'm just telling you this is a really good system to buy low
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  on. So if you happen to like some of
• 6:22
  these teams anyway, based on your own data, what the markets
• 6:24
  telling us, this little feather in your capital cherry on top.
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  So believe it or not, the first one is the Miami Dolphins.
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  Dolphins, this is a game we're going to talk about for
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  tomorrow, Thursday Night Football.
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  But obviously it's a big number. Dolphins, Owen to their dog.
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  This game opened a lot of shops. I think it was around -10 1/2
• 6:43
  with Buffalo. This line is all the way up to
• 6:46
  12 1/2. You've seen a little buyback.
• 6:49
  I see one shop at 11 1/2. No one wants to play Miami, but
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  they wouldn't match Owen to dog getting points.
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  The Jets, Jets just announced that they are going to start
• 6:59
  Tyrod Taylor because we have Justin Fields, who got hurt
• 7:02
  there. On the road at Tampa Bay, The
• 7:04
  Jets opened as a 5 1/2. Point Dog in Tampa Bay.
• 7:08
  Now we're seeing this line get up to 6 1/2 seven and may even
• 7:11
  get to 7 1/2. Here's the other thing with
• 7:13
  these gross dogs, I would wait until that just let the line go
• 7:16
  as high as it'll go because again, Tyrod Taylor backup, you
• 7:19
  know, Tampa Bay had that great comeback if you're on Tampa was
• 7:22
  a terrible comeback for me as a as a Texans backer, but let the
• 7:26
  line get inflated as high as it'll go.
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  So any takers on Jets? Wait it out.
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  Can you get a 7 1/2? We do have those dogs 6 1/2 or
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  more covering 56% of the time over the last few seasons.
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  The Houston Texans, they are another system match here.
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  The Houston Texans are on the road against Jacksonville and
• 7:45
  we've pretty much seen a line freeze, you know, open
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  Jacksonville -1 1/2. It's pretty much still -1 1/2
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  Jacksonville. But Texans are O and two, they
• 7:54
  are a divisional dog. Maybe you could even tease them
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  up 1 1/2 up to again, you know, 7 1/2 go through some key
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  numbers. But Texans would would match
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  their Chicago Bears. They're on, they're at home
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  against Dallas. We've actually seen this line
• 8:07
  flip a little bit toward Dallas. It was at one point Chicago -1
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  1/2 -, 2. It's now flipped to basically
• 8:14
  pick them or -1 Dallas Cowboys. That would be dog to fave
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  Cowboys. But do you get Chicago 1 1/2?
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  Tease them up, you know, to seven and a half.
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  Bears would match that system. The Giants.
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  Giants are at home against Kansas City.
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  Everyone's playing Kansas City, more on this game in here a
• 8:30
  second. But you can get a 6 1/2 with the
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  Giants. Pretty much a line.
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  Freeze it open around 6. Hasn't really moved, but there
• 8:38
  is one book offering. 6 1/2. That's a Sunday night game.
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  Giants owing to dog. They would match the New Orleans
• 8:44
  Saints. New Orleans Saints.
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  Here they are on the road at Seattle.
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  This looks kind of sharp because it pretty much opened Seattle
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  around -6 1/2 seven. It's pretty much stayed 7.
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  There are some 7 and a halfs out there, but you're buying low on
• 9:00
  New Orleans as an O and two dog on the road.
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  And they would also match that big dog system match, the
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  Cleveland Browns. Don't, don't, don't.
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  Laugh at the Browns. They covered for us Week 1.
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  If you remember that. One of the Cleveland Browns at
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  home against Green Bay. The sign has really moved toward
• 9:13
  Green Bay -7 I see some 7 and a halfs, even see an 8 out there,
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  You know, can you get an 8 1/2 and buy low on Cleveland as a
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  contrarian spot, the Carolina Panthers, Carolina Panthers are
• 9:27
  where are they at? Let me find them on my board.
• 9:32
  Let's see, they're at home against Atlanta.
• 9:35
  Big move toward Atlanta. They open as low as -2 1/2.
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  They're up to 5 1/2. I'm not sure if there's an issue
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  with Bryce Young or not, but can you get a six on Carolina?
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  That'll be another divisional dog.
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  And then the last one is the Titans.
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  Tennessee Titans at home against Indy.
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  And you look great, obviously upsetting the the Broncos, but
• 9:54
  we open pretty much as low as -2 1/2 Indy.
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  Now they're up to 4 1/2. You know, could you tease up the
• 10:01
  Titans to 10 1/2? I mean, that's typically a long
• 10:04
  teaser going through the seven and the 10 at least.
• 10:07
  But whole point being is you got a lot of system matches.
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  Doesn't mean you're going to play every single all nine of
• 10:12
  these plays, but here are. Here's a spot that.
• 10:15
  I must admit, looks terrible. These teams look awful, but
• 10:19
  these are hazmat plays that have actually done pretty well
• 10:21
  historically. So keep an eye out for those
• 10:23
  teams that are O and two their dog.
• 10:25
  This week, there's nine of them getting points.
• 10:28
  They're covering nearly 70% of the time since 2017.
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  Now getting back to our regularly scheduled program.
• 10:35
  Three NFL bets that caught my eye for this upcoming week.
• 10:38
  First one that I wanted to talk about is a match up between the
• 10:42
  Rams and the Eagles. Now this one is one of your more
• 10:45
  more heavily bet one O clock games coming up on Sunday.
• 10:47
  Let's set the stage talk line movement splits like giving my
• 10:50
  my early play for this one. Now unlike Samoan 2 teams, these
• 10:53
  two teams are both 2 and O Rams 2 and O just beat the Titans 33
• 10:57
  to 19 in Week 2. Easily covered as a 5 1/2 point
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  Rd. favorite. Eagles 2 and O just came
• 11:03
  through. Beat the Chiefs 20 to 17.
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  Dog to fave for us. Covered the 1 1/2 that they were
• 11:08
  laying on the road. So just in across the market.
• 11:11
  Well, Philly opened as high as a 4 1/2 point home favorite and
• 11:14
  the public says that that line is not too high.
• 11:17
  It's probably too low. Maybe.
• 11:19
  Late with the Eagles. Eagles are great, they'll roll.
• 11:22
  Nearly 60% of spread bets are laying with Philly, but we
• 11:25
  haven't seen the Philly Philadelphia Eagles go up to -5
• 11:30
  1/2 - 6 1/2. No, it's gone the other way.
• 11:32
  So even though you're getting nearly 2/3 of bets on Philly,
• 11:36
  Philly has fallen -4 1/2 down to -3 1/2.
• 11:39
  And what's also notable to me is that it's not juiced up toward
• 11:42
  the Philly side -3 1/2 - 115. Like it's going back up to four.
• 11:46
  No, it looks like it's tumbling, maybe even further down to three
• 11:49
  because the juice is on the Rams.
• 11:51
  Plus 3 1/2 -, 115 Rams are getting 41% of spread bets, 72%
• 11:57
  of spread dollars. Really good low bets, higher
• 11:58
  dollar split at DraftKings when both teams are two and O, the
• 12:03
  dog is 58% against the spread since 26 2006.
• 12:06
  Big sample. When you're a road dog +6 or
• 12:10
  less, you're 7 and six ATS this year. 54 percent, 55 percent, 6%
• 12:15
  ROI since 2019, we have seen some under money on that 145 1/2
• 12:20
  to 44 1/2 and I did notice that at DraftKings 35% bets 81%
• 12:25
  dollars on that under so lines moving toward the Rams total is
• 12:29
  falling typically that's a good thing low total dog getting.
• 12:32
  Points harder for the favorite. To color cover, I jumped on the
• 12:36
  Rams guys. I was hoping to maybe wait and
• 12:38
  get a four, but I was actually worried this thing may get down
• 12:41
  to three, which it's really leaning toward with the juice.
• 12:43
  So I officially put in first bed of the week.
• 12:46
  Rams plus 3 1/2. See if they can hang tough,
• 12:49
  maybe lose by three. Cover that number.
• 12:51
  Next one for you. Broncos at the Chargers.
• 12:55
  This is a 44-O5 game coming up on Sunday.
• 12:58
  Broncos one and one came up short against the Colts, though
• 13:01
  2928 just mentioned that. Lost out right as a 1 1/2 point
• 13:05
  Rd. dog. A road favorite I should say.
• 13:08
  On the other hand, the Chargers 2 and O just took down the
• 13:10
  Raiders 20 to 9. Don't remind me.
• 13:12
  I had Raiders in the points. Geno Smith was horrific.
• 13:16
  Easily covered that 3 1/2 with the Chargers.
• 13:18
  So what have you seen across the market here?
• 13:20
  This game opened pretty much LA listed as a 2 1/2 point home
• 13:24
  favorite and the public says this line is way too short. 79%
• 13:29
  of spread bets at DraftKings are laying it with the Chargers at
• 13:32
  home. I get it.
• 13:33
  Chargers are two and O. They've looked good.
• 13:35
  It's a short number play Herbert.
• 13:37
  However, even though you're getting roughly 80% of spread
• 13:40
  bets on the Chargers, they're not up to -3 -, 3 and half -4 -,
• 13:44
  4 and half. It's not like this line has shot
• 13:46
  up in favor of, I was almost going to call him San Diego in
• 13:49
  favor of LA. No, it stayed pretty much right
• 13:51
  where it's at. You're still -2 and half
• 13:53
  Chargers. Now you are juiced up -2 and
• 13:55
  half -115 toward LA. But my play here is to back the
• 14:00
  line freeze on the Broncos. Broncos are only getting 21% of
• 14:04
  spread bets, yet the line really hasn't moved at all.
• 14:06
  They'll juice it up toward LA, but they're really not going to
• 14:09
  three now. Maybe they will later in the
• 14:10
  week. Obviously 3 is a key number, but
• 14:13
  that tells me there's some liability on the Broncos.
• 14:16
  Super contrarian. Only 21% of bets at circa
• 14:19
  though. 60% of bets, 94% of spread dollars.
• 14:24
  Now here's the key. Aside from the fact divisional
• 14:27
  dogs are we always look toward built in familiarity levels, the
• 14:30
  playing field benefits of team getting points.
• 14:32
  That's 54% against the spread. Since 2024% ROI, you need to get
• 14:38
  the three. Now the importance of shopping
• 14:40
  around, having multiple outs. I'm in Massachusetts, I have
• 14:43
  like 7 different sports books that I use, but pretty much
• 14:46
  every single one is Denver plus 2 1/2 except one of them
• 14:50
  Fanatics. Fanatics is offering Broncos
• 14:53
  plus three at -110. So I jumped on Broncos plus
• 14:56
  three at -110. That's again, taking advantage
• 15:00
  of a book that's a little bit off.
• 15:01
  Now, if you're going to play Denver with me, I would wait for
• 15:04
  the three if you don't have a Fanatics account.
• 15:06
  But I would mention as well, the Broncos are in a Wong teaser
• 15:09
  spot plus 2 1/2 up to 8 1/2. That would go through the three
• 15:12
  and the seven. And the Broncos also have a rest
• 15:15
  advantage. Broncos, remember they played
• 15:17
  Sunday afternoon, Chargers played Monday night.
• 15:20
  So one day rest versus tired advantage in favor of Denver.
• 15:24
  So we got everyone playing the Chargers, but the line really
• 15:26
  hasn't moved. You can get a three at Fanatics
• 15:28
  to get system matches and splits.
• 15:30
  Here's what I like even more. I popped open my Rhythm app.
• 15:32
  I have two models on this game. One is Broncos plus 1.1 and one
• 15:37
  is Broncos plus 1.2. So if you can get the key number
• 15:41
  of three and Rhythm is saying it should be about a one point
• 15:43
  game, that's a good angle to go contrarian and take Denver.
• 15:47
  So I officially put in Denver plus 3 -, 110 at Fanatics last
• 15:52
  game. Kind of hit on this a little bit
• 15:54
  ago. Chiefs at the Giants.
• 15:56
  This is your Sunday Night Football game, 8:20 PM Eastern
• 15:59
  Time in the Meadowlands. Chiefs come in O and two,
• 16:03
  obviously not what you would expect.
• 16:05
  I believe it's the first time Holmes has ever been O and two
• 16:07
  came up short against the Eagles, 20 to 17 mentioned that
• 16:10
  a minute ago didn't cover as a 1 1/2 point home dog.
• 16:13
  The Giants, meanwhile, O and two, they showed a little life.
• 16:16
  Remember their questions about Russell Wilson.
• 16:19
  Will he continue to to play? Do you go to Jackson Dart?
• 16:22
  Well, you did see Dave all stick with him and he actually played
• 16:25
  really well. The Giants lost to the Cowboys
• 16:28
  40 to 37 in overtime last week, but they did cover the 4 1/2 as
• 16:31
  a divisional dog. So we've seen across the market
• 16:34
  this game opened Kansas City around a six point Rd. favorite
• 16:38
  and the public is saying this is an easy Kansas City play.
• 16:41
  They're O and two, they're desperate.
• 16:43
  This is a get right spot. Basically you are you're looking
• 16:47
  at a situation where a team that struggled is going to beat up on
• 16:50
  the the G men and cover this number win by 7 or more.
• 16:54
  However, even though the public. Is hammering Kansas City in the
• 16:56
  spot they're getting 73? Percent of spread bets,
• 17:00
  basically. Three out of four bets.
• 17:01
  Primetime game going with the. Favorite.
• 17:03
  This line really hasn't. Moved at all, pretty much open
• 17:05
  Kansas City -6 still KC -6. Now there are some books that
• 17:09
  are even down to 5 1/2. So again, what does this tell
• 17:12
  us? Line freeze on heavy.
• 17:14
  Betting on one side, yet the line won't.
• 17:15
  Move like. Why?
• 17:16
  Isn't KC up to -7 -? 7 and. 1/2 No, they're pretty
• 17:20
  much right where they're at. Tells me the books are more
• 17:22
  concerned, not about the public hammering.
• 17:24
  Kansas City, but more. Of the G men contrarian backers
• 17:28
  in prime time taking the points here now giants are your one of
• 17:32
  your. Top bet against the public.
• 17:33
  Plays of the weekend. They're only getting 27% of
• 17:36
  spread bets in a prime time game.
• 17:38
  Primetime dogs, by the way. Five and two against the spread
• 17:41
  71%. This year, they're 53.
• 17:43
  Percent with a 2% ROI. Excuse me, since 2020 and in his
• 17:48
  career, Russell Wilson, remember him?
• 17:50
  He's a pretty good, pretty good player here against the spread.
• 17:54
  As a dog, As a dog. In his career, Russell Wilson,
• 17:57
  45 and 28. ATS 62.
• 17:59
  Percent, 20% ROI mention this at the outset.
• 18:02
  Put that crazy system when when you have a team that is O and
• 18:07
  two. Just take the dog.
• 18:09
  If they're a dog in Week 3, that system match is as I mentioned
• 18:13
  before, 37 and 17 ATS 69 percent, 32% ROI since 2017.
• 18:19
  Now we did see some over money total open as low as 41 1/2.
• 18:23
  It's now up to 45 1/2 and you are getting 67% bets, over 90%
• 18:27
  money on the. Over at Circo, but lastly.
• 18:31
  As I'm looking to take the Giants, I noticed.
• 18:33
  There is a book. Offering Giants plus 6 1/2.
• 18:36
  Again, you got to have these, these multiple outs, guys.
• 18:39
  You can't just assume every book will be the same, but at Bet MGM
• 18:42
  right now you can get giants. Plus the hook +6.
• 18:45
  And 1/2 at -110. Every other book is 6.
• 18:48
  Or even 5 1/2. But bet MGM plus 6 1/2 - 110.
• 18:52
  So I did take advantage and I got down and I took giants plus
• 18:56
  6 1/2 - 110. And here's what I like even
• 18:58
  more. I popped open rhythm.
• 19:00
  Rhythm's got 2 models on the game, giants plus 4.8 and giants
• 19:04
  plus 4.1, so even if you round up to.
• 19:07
  Five. Hey, that's a full.
• 19:08
  Point and a half off the rhythm recommendation.
• 19:12
  So I took the points there with the G men plus 6 1/2 -, 110
• 19:15
  again, that's bet MGM. Broncos plus 3 -, 110 Fanatics
• 19:19
  and Rams, even though it's juiced up, you can pretty much
• 19:22
  find it anywhere. Rams plus 3 1/2 at -115 So Rams,
• 19:27
  Broncos, G men get the hooks, the key numbers, the best of it.
• 19:30
  But those are three early. Plays that I made.
• 19:32
  For week 3. Now let's go over to MLB again.
• 19:36
  I still can't get over my Red Sox and the Dodgers just blowing
• 19:40
  it for us last night. Let's see if we can just go one
• 19:43
  and O he got a one game winner here for tonight and it's a game
• 19:46
  that we actually won last night so.
• 19:48
  Let's go to the Padres. And the Mets, 7:10 PM Eastern
• 19:51
  Time, first pitch. I think this is on MLBTV.
• 19:54
  Might be able to watch it, but the pods come in 82 and 69.
• 19:58
  Mets 78 and 73. We saw the Mets come through for
• 20:02
  us last night to win the series opener 8:00 to 3:00 and they
• 20:06
  came through as Ronnie -120 -? 125 home favorite pitch match
• 20:10
  up. For tonight's rematch we have
• 20:11
  Nick Pavetta the righty going for the dads 13 and five, 2.73.
• 20:17
  Era he'll be. Opposed by the lefty David
• 20:19
  Peterson, who is 9 and five with a 3.77 ERA.
• 20:23
  What have we seen? Across the market here, this
• 20:25
  game opened almost to pick them -110 both sides basically very
• 20:31
  maybe a short favorite -115 toward the Mets.
• 20:34
  And all movement liability has been on New York.
• 20:37
  I'm playing the Mets to win again tonight, guys.
• 20:39
  They've gone from -110 pick them or very short favorite now all
• 20:42
  the way up to -120 -, 125 I got -120 at Fanatics, So better
• 20:49
  number there. But I like the splits.
• 20:51
  Public is basically. Down the middle doesn't know
• 20:53
  what to do. Only around 52% of tickets are
• 20:56
  on the Mets, but nearly 70% of money at DraftKings is on the
• 21:00
  Mets, so some low. Bets higher dollars.
• 21:03
  Good bet discrepancy split in favor of the Mets.
• 21:06
  Got some system matches here. A big one is a non division home
• 21:09
  favorite off a win with a line move and your -150 or less.
• 21:13
  This has been a really good system this year.
• 21:15
  One O 1 and 61. That's a 62% win rate and 11%
• 21:19
  ROI. Home favorites made the
• 21:21
  postseason line move in your favor off a win.
• 21:23
  That's 64% this season. I have another match here.
• 21:27
  Home favorite made post, opponent also made post.
• 21:30
  Take the home favorite. That's 59% this season.
• 21:33
  So all these systems are lighting up with the Mets as
• 21:36
  well as that line move. And you also look at some other
• 21:39
  things like non division favorite, lack of familiarity
• 21:41
  benefiting quote UN quote the better team favorite.
• 21:44
  Low total total in this one has fallen from 8 down to 7 1/2 and
• 21:48
  it's really juiced under 7 1/2 -, 115 -, 120.
• 21:51
  So maybe you get a, you know, 4 nothing game.
• 21:54
  That'll be nice, but some other factors here.
• 21:56
  I'm going to bank on the Mets offense.
• 21:58
  They've had 207 home runs, scored 712 runs on the year.
• 22:02
  San Diego's only hit a hundred, 138 homers and scored 644 runs.
• 22:08
  We have seen the Mets play well at home. 47 and 29 versus the
• 22:13
  pods, 35 and 41 on the road. Mets against righties are 7th
• 22:17
  best in baseball hitting 255. San Diego against lefties only
• 22:21
  hitting two. 42. That ranks 15th.
• 22:24
  So they are toward the bottom of or middle half toward the.
• 22:27
  Bottom when it comes against southpaws and they'll be facing
• 22:30
  Peterson here for tonight. Then you just dig in these
• 22:33
  pictures a little bit more like one thing I noticed Nick
• 22:35
  Pavetta, it's been great at home. 2.22 ERA on the road,
• 22:39
  3.41. Also look at Mr. Peterson.
• 22:43
  At home, five and one, 3.78 ERA, at night, nine and three, 3.59
• 22:49
  ERA. So Peterson's been good at home
• 22:51
  and good at night. It's a home night game here
• 22:54
  tonight and we've seen Pavetta struggle on the road a bit or
• 22:56
  been worse on the road. He's on the road tonight.
• 22:59
  So you add it all up here guys, let's.
• 23:00
  See if we can get the Mets to win another one for us.
• 23:02
  I got New York -120 at Fanatics. So that about does it for
• 23:07
  episode 350. Four of the all systems go
• 23:10
  sports betting. Podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 23:12
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
• 23:14
  start first by saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
• 23:17
  out of your day. Out of your busy lives.
• 23:19
  And we got a lot going on, but you still pull up a chair to the
• 23:22
  virtual bar and sweat these sharp potato driven breakdowns
• 23:24
  with me. Even when we beat closing lines
• 23:26
  and teams let us down. Hey, we're doing it the the
• 23:30
  smart way and those ups and downs will happen.
• 23:32
  So. As long as we stick.
• 23:33
  With it, I'm confident we'll continue to cash here.
• 23:36
  But if you do want to help. Me grow this podcast.
• 23:37
  You enjoy it please. Give it a 5 star.
• 23:40
  Review on Spotify or iTunes. If you'd like to leave a nice
• 23:43
  comment under the review section, click the Follow button
• 23:46
  or recommend the pod to a friend.
• 23:48
  I'd also very much appreciate that next, if you enjoy the
• 23:52
  style of betting breakdown, data-driven sharp contrarian
• 23:54
  betting focusing on line movement system matches what the
• 23:57
  numbers are saying, not what our biases are telling us.
• 24:00
  But if that's the case and you want to learn more about
• 24:03
  data-driven betting, or maybe have a friend or colleague or
• 24:05
  family member or buddy or Co worker, someone who wants to get
• 24:09
  into betting or already bets and struggles and doesn't win too
• 24:11
  much, but really doesn't have a philosophy, just throwing darts,
• 24:15
  you know what you should do. You should go to Amazon.com,
• 24:17
  type in the NFL sharp betting playbook and the everything
• 24:21
  guide to sports betting. Those are my two books.
• 24:23
  Buy one or both. It would mean a lot to me guys.
• 24:26
  I also. Love, love, love.
• 24:28
  Those pictures you tweet me of you holding up the NFL sharp
• 24:31
  betting playbook. If you want to give the NFL
• 24:33
  sharp betting playbook. A five star review.
• 24:36
  A nice comment on Amazon that would be fantastic to help us
• 24:39
  stay. Atop the charts.
• 24:41
  And if you buy one or both? Bring those books to the.
• 24:43
  Sports book. I'll sign them for you.
• 24:45
  I'll buy a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat the Mets
• 24:47
  tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
• 24:50
  and Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 24:52
  apps, Rhythm fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions
• 24:55
  for game bets and player props. A reminder, we do have our
• 24:58
  rhythm rundown tomorrow night, 6:00 PM Eastern Time stream live
• 25:02
  on Twitter. You can just follow me at Josh
• 25:03
  under under score Insights. When we go live, you can use the
• 25:07
  promo. Code start. 25 for 25% off
• 25:10
  rhythm. There's also a refer.
• 25:12
  A friend with rhythm and a new contest as well, so take
• 25:14
  advantage of those. Next, you got Juice Reel.
• 25:17
  This pod is free it. Cost you nothing to listen if
• 25:19
  you want to. Support the pod tip your podcast
• 25:22
  host by. Signing up to get the $4.99 a
• 25:25
  week best bets for the ASG pod located only on juice rail.
• 25:29
  So as soon as I bet a game it goes right to juice rail.
• 25:32
  You can tail fade, do whatever you like, but again, you go out
• 25:34
  to the BA bartender treats your right.
• 25:37
  Fills up your water glass. Gives you a new drink when you
• 25:39
  want one. They're nice to you.
• 25:41
  How you tip your bartender at the end of the night.
• 25:43
  Tip your podcast host 5 bucks. Get all those plays.
• 25:47
  You also get the. Robo Jackson best bet?
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  Picks the sharp mush indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop for
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  the best line features all located and available to you
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  when you download Juice Reel. So download rhythm, download
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  Juice Reel, give them a five star review in the App Store.
• 26:00
  Next, do you have a live odds page?
• 26:01
  If you don't, you need one. You got to be able to track the
• 26:04
  market if you want to bet this way or if you bet a totally
• 26:07
  different way, you still got to know what the line open at.
• 26:09
  Where is it now? Shop for the best line.
• 26:11
  I'll give you a perfect example with odds logic.
• 26:13
  I'm looking at the giants. I found one book offering the
• 26:16
  hook +6 and F because my bet MGM column on my on my odds logic
• 26:20
  page was showing me that hook that was also showing me
• 26:24
  fanatics had the three with the Broncos.
• 26:25
  Again, it's it's tracking the market, identifying steam live
• 26:30
  in game wagering odds, live scoring but.
• 26:31
  Really the key there with the odds, live odds.
• 26:33
  Page is picking off the best number and again, that can be
• 26:36
  the difference between a win, a loss and a push.
• 26:38
  So give Odds Logic a shot. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
• 26:44
  12347 day free trial and 50% off your first month and then.
• 26:48
  Lastly, don't just bet through. Sports books you can.
• 26:51
  It's totally legal as long as you're in a legal state, but you
• 26:54
  can instead use a betting exchange and I partnered with
• 26:58
  Novig. They are America's number one
• 27:01
  sports prediction market. You're competing with your
• 27:03
  peers, not the house you win. You won't get limited, it pretty
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  much operates. Just like a sports.
• 27:08
  Book except you're not, you know, losing to the house.
• 27:11
  You're you would theoretically be losing to another better.
• 27:13
  I'd rather another better gets my money than the house, I'll
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  tell you that. But I do have a.
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  Promo code Josh 123. If you sign up with Novig,
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  download the app, you deposit 25 bucks, they're going to add
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  another 25 bucks. So you have 50 bucks to start
• 27:26
  with. And you can always click that
• 27:27
  link located on my Twitter page. It's pinned right at the top at
• 27:30
  Josh under Score Insights. So that about does it for
• 27:34
  episode 354 of the ASG. Pod.
• 27:36
  As always, powered by rhythm. Two final thoughts, one whether.
• 27:39
  I see you at the. Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin
• 27:42
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 27:44
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, the Encore in
• 27:47
  Boston, Plain Ridge park, casino, MGM Springfield, the
• 27:50
  Nash and my Neck of the Woods in New England.
• 27:53
  Or of course out in the desert where the true grinders get
• 27:55
  down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
• 27:56
  runners where Lois true as possible is found at the South
• 27:59
  Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
• 28:01
  plays, jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
• 28:03
  When you catch a big ticket at Circa, you're going to walk up
• 28:05
  to me, show me a nice Mets winner.
• 28:07
  But whatever you do. Red Sox.
• 28:09
  Dodgers. Both with leads, both cruising,
• 28:12
  both imploding and letting us down.
• 28:14
  I can't believe both of them. I'll give you one of them both.
• 28:17
  That was frustrating. But anyway, guys, sometimes it's
• 28:19
  going to happen. 1 and 2, two and one, O and three, three and
• 28:22
  O off. A good night, bad night.
• 28:24
  Hot streak cold. Streak.
• 28:25
  We just got to stick to it, not get too high, not not get too
• 28:28
  low, not quit and throw our hands up and say this is too.
• 28:31
  Hard. It is hard.
• 28:32
  But you know what we can do? We can win if we stick to the
• 28:34
  model long term, which as you might know by now.
• 28:37
  Goes a little like this. Against the public with, the
• 28:39
  House with. The pros flat bet avoid.
• 28:41
  Parlays and get that CLV if we can do that and I'm confident
• 28:45
  that we can, that we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 28:47
  So have a great Wednesday night everybody.
• 28:50
  We right back at it tomorrow for episode 350. 5.
• 28:52
  Of the all systems go sports betting podcast powered by
• 28:56
  rhythm. Good luck everybody, and go
• 28:58
  Mets.