Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - (Still) The Best Investing Opportunity This Decade + Stock Market News 26 August 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - (Still) The Best Investing Opportunity This Decade + Stock Market News 26 August 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Thank you to you.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: So you are the best informed investor out there and you can make money, but I think we need to fortify ourselves with a little bit more electrolytes, the drug of choice, and let's get cracking.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I'll share my screen with you, firas.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I appreciate you smashing the like button, you and 35 other people.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Let's appreciate that.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: This is the data literally just in Durable goods orders, month on month, and if you look at that 9.9% up oh my God, we were only expecting 3%.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: It's a huge number, but it isn't what it seems.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: If you take out defense goods, still up 10%.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Weird, isn't it?
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: If you take out transport, it's negative.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: There is your clue.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Now, what company?
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: This is going to be a quiz, okay, what company is so large, such a large transport company is so large, such a large transport company, that it could take the durable goods orders from basically 10.4% down to negative?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: What is the one big company who's been having delays and delays and delays and is therefore dragging on their deliveries and the data and giving us bad data on the past and now giving us this kind of faux fake great piece of data?
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: I know I'm giving it away.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: On the, some of you are saying no sound, really no sound.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: I think there is sound.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: My friend, maybe turn yours on, that might help.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I think I've given it away, haven't I?
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Haven't I given it away?
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: I think I've given it away, haven't I?
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Haven't I given it away?
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I think I've given it rather away.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Jerome says FedEx no, not quite.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Think a bit more.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Like, what does FedEx use to move parcels around?
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: You got to think a little bigger there.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Jerome Sounds back.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Good to hear it.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Anybody, anybody, who do you think it is?
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: What's a large transport company?
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's make this into a nice little quiz here.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: One is a car company.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Two, is it a train company?
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Three, is it a plane company?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Four, is it?
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know what else?
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: There is Any thoughts?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: One, two or three?
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: One, two or three.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: One for cars, two for trains, three for planes.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Who accounts for all of the durable goods orders in the past month?
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: It's not Tesla, it's not Uber, it's definitely not Nvidia, it's not a transport company.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Yet Boeing, yes, yes, yes, boeing, that's it, it's all Boeing, all of it.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: The data is entirely meaningless If you look at the non-defense data we had last month a horrible month because Boeing can't make planes or spacecraft and now they're catching up.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: That's really all.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: This is completely meaningless gobbledygook of data, so ignore it.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: That's absolutely zero impact on anything out there.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So durable goods data this month is a basket case, but essentially not a lot going on there.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: If you take out transport, which is the thing that skews it, so it's negative 0.2% down.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: And then here is the number they don't want you to see Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index minus 17.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: We were expecting minus 14.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: So there are some slowdown fears here, right, not a doom and gloom up, but just be aware of it.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: But the sweetest thing that Jerome Powell has ever said to anybody, including his wife, when he proposed this, is sweeter than that.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: He said the time has come for policy to adjust.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: The direction of travel is clear and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: We will do everything we can to support a strong labour market.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Everything we can, everything, everything.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: As we make further progress towards price stability Progress towards price stability With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraints, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labour market.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: This is sort of his love letter to Wall Street, that the economy will get back to 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labour market.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: This is sort of his love letter to Wall Street.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: When I retire, folks, please hire me.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: I've been very entertaining.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: I've made you lots of money.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Geronimo is a Fed manufacturer coming up at 10?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: .
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Did I have the old data point there?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Let me check that.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Oh, you're quite right.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Minus 17 was last month.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: You're entirely right.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Appreciate that.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: We haven't got the data out yet.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: It comes out at 10.30.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: But so yeah, the jury is still out on the manufacturing data there.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: So I'll take it all back and I just say that Jerome Powell loves you.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: That's what he is basically saying here.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: So, very, very nice.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Warming up the printer.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Indeed, at least somebody's awake.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, let me walk you through a little bit of this, then.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: And on a day where things are generally pretty good, markets sort of mixed, but not horrible, just kind of a little bit mixed after Friday's exuberance, finance stocks are flying.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Everything else is sort of like which way do we go?
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Which way do we go?
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: What's the direction?
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: What's going on?
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Well, it's important to understand a little bit the bigger picture, and I want to prepare you here gradually for September, especially if you hit the like button Now.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: It says here that, despite the market rebound, leverage ratios have declined for both the full book and long short managers so far in August, suggesting little recovery and risk appetite after the lot of selling in August.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: So the hedge funds are not really buying much.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Now we are buying.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: In fact we're going to do a live training, live trading session for you guys in the coaching program in 35 minutes.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: If you haven't seen the notification yet, go into the community, you'll see it, and our aim is to take this $25,000 profit, which is on a $30,000 portfolio, and make that an even greater and more glorious number.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Now we're already doing quite nicely because look at the two trades we do have open.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: That's another almost $8,000.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: So we closed them right now We'd be up over 100% so far trading this year, which is quite sweet really.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn how we do that and you're not in the community yet, then you can't join me, but you can join the bootcamp tomorrow.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Two hours of unadulterated given away of my strategy three steps, the automations.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I'll walk you through some real trades and everything else.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: So check it out, felixrentsorg bootcamp and grab yourself a seat.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: I think about 800 of you already have signed up, which is super exciting.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Our goal is to reach a million people, so we have to still push on a little bit here.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Now, what's the fly in the ointment this morning?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Hf hedge funds are on track to net sell stocks at the fastest rate since March 2022.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Somebody good is that 2022, they sold this much.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: They're selling this much.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Now why the heck would you sell when everything is perfect and Jerome Powell just said everything is wonderful?
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Well, these guys aim to be ahead of the market ever so slightly, right?
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Do you have a seat?
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, I look forward to it.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: And what are they selling?
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Maybe they're selling those bloody European stocks.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: You know, foreign stocks.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Who needs foreign stocks when you can have good old, homemade American stocks?
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Well, sorry to disappoint you, the black line here is US stocks.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So they're selling US stocks, a lot of them.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Mainly, they're shorting.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: And what do you think they're shorting?
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Some hideous, horrible, overpriced stock that you don't hold?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Nah, not quite.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Let me show you what they're short of.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: So this left side here is hedges, hedge funds.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Now we're joined by my chief financial analyst, who will explain this better than I could, just jumped on the desk Right.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Tallulah, break it down for us.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Left side is hedge funds.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: The bottom side is what do you think?
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Mutual funds.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: So the stuff in the top right, they're both buying.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: The stuff in the bottom left, they're both selling.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: So what are they selling, tallulah?
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Any thoughts?
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Information technology.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: They're selling tech stocks, the very tech stocks that you own, that you buy and that you think are going to keep going to the moon.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: They're selling them pretty aggressively, both hedge funds and mutual funds.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: What do you make of that?
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Tallulah?
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Shocking stuff.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: She says Weird, these hedge fund people.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: So let me show you the chart again so you can actually see it.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: As Tallulah explained very profoundly, they're selling tech and they're buying healthcare, fat, drugs, mostly.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: They're also buying a bit of real estate, a bit of consumer staples, and Hedge funds are also fans of financials, as am I, industrials as am I, and we might look at a few more things today.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: I've actually made a list already, a watch list, of everything we're going to look at today in our little live trading session.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Here it is.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: That's our entire watch list.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: We've got a fair few things to click through.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: And, yeah, industrials, for sure we're looking at some oil stocks, some oil service stocks, we're looking at some crypto stocks, we're looking at financials and that kind of thing, and we're basically doing largely here what hedge funds are doing.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: That's usually a fairly smart idea.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I thought hedges are in France.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Well, obviously, some of them figured out that there is Wi-Fi in France.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: It's, colin, no joke.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Tallulah does all the tough thinking around here.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Anything that you ever thought was advice definitely comes from Tallulah.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: There is my disclaimer, but let me break it down for you a little bit more, and you might want to take a screenshot of this, because this is straight from Goldman Sachs and they don't send this out to you or me.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: They send this to institutional investors, right, and my mission is sort of to level the playing field between institutional investors and retail, you and me, because it's incredibly unfair, right, we don't get half the information, which is one of the reasons we built Trade Vision, for example, which you surely have signed up for by now, haven't you that one here?
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Tradevisionio, amazing indicator, and dark pool trade access and everything else.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: So, if you haven't already there, it is tradevisionio.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: And what are we seeing?
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Well, what are they both buying here?
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Stuff like Visa, uber, mastercard, unh that's health.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: And what are they shorting?
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Well, they hate CVX, they hate Intel, they hate mRNA, which is kind of interesting, and they hate Tesla, which I think is also rather interesting.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: So what do I do with that information?
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Rather interesting.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: So what do I do with that information?
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Well, I actually look at their short positions as stuff to watch.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: So what would I look for?
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Okay, say, we get some bad news on Tesla, but the market doesn't drop in the bad news, it stays flat.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: That might be your indicator to think.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Well, I know, the hedge funds are really short.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Market didn't go down on bad news.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: This could be the moment where we start to invert and then you see a little bit of a rally in the stock price and that's maybe the moment when we enter a trade.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of a little bit more advanced thinking.