Latest / Height Differential / Preakness Stakes Preview, Picks & Draft + PGA Championship & NFL Schedule Talk
Transcript
- 0:04Have you all talked yourself into being excited about the
- 0:08Preakness at Laurel just yet? Yes, I'm I'm there.
- 0:15I've got there. It took me a while but I'm there
- 0:17because it's a 14 horse field which finally we actually get a
- 0:20decent amount of horses in this damn race.
- 0:23I feel like. So for, for horse racing
- 0:26gamblers like ourselves that, you know, like to try to make a
- 0:28buck, this is great. I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm happy.
- 0:31It's a 14 horse field, not some schmuck 8 horse field.
- 0:35Is it a strong field? Not necessarily, but there's
- 0:38fourteen horses. It's horse racing.
- 0:39It'll be a good Saturday. It's a small track, but let's
- 0:42go. So I would agree that if we get
- 0:47no scratches, we're in good shape.
- 0:49But you know the dot, the the trainer scratch.
- 0:51You're going to get your scratches, but don't.
- 0:52We have some also eligibles for like the first time is there
- 0:58where do we not, we talked about that earlier.
- 1:01I haven't heard of it. Are there also eligibles?
- 1:03I haven't heard there. Was there were two horses that
- 1:04were also eligible? It might be too late.
- 1:06Maybe they can't get in now. Is 14 the biggest that the
- 1:10biggest the field can be? OK, yeah, I mean, I don't.
- 1:13Think it's does anybody know the last time it's been a full
- 1:16field? I feel like it's been a long
- 1:17time. I mean, there's already 9 last
- 1:19year, right? Yeah.
- 1:22There's only 14 on the Brisnet sheet, so I don't think because
- 1:25normally they would be listed as also eligible.
- 1:28I don't think anybody else can get in this field, but I know
- 1:32there were, there were two horses that were on the outside
- 1:34hoping to get in at one point. But I guess it's it's past that,
- 1:37that time. But so I guess we're we're kind
- 1:42of talking ourselves into being excited about it.
- 1:44Slightly. We thought no Derby horses.
- 1:47We're getting three. None of them are that great.
- 1:50Three, we're getting 33/4 if you.
- 1:52Want to Are we counting Great White as a Derby horse?
- 1:55I think that you're 4 OK. OK.
- 1:57You got Robusta, you got Ocelli and you got Incredible and then
- 2:01Great White. Great White.
- 2:05Yeah, yeah, 3 1/2. We got 3 1/2 horses.
- 2:08Well, that's a big half, because that's a big old, big old horse.
- 2:11It's a big horse. But we'll do it just like we did
- 2:14every. We'll go through the field,
- 2:15we'll give our wing contender, we'll give our try super
- 2:19contenders and we'll give our pass no chances.
- 2:22And then I think we're going to do a little draft, but we're
- 2:25only going to pick two horses. Yeah, and Matt and I were very
- 2:31even incoming to 2nd. I don't remember who won, but it
- 2:33would we were really close. So Matt will go first, I'll go
- 2:372nd and then Neil, you'll get the you'll get the 3rd pick
- 2:39since you won the the Derby draft.
- 2:41Does that sound fair? I guess so.
- 2:45Hey, you want Neil, you got, you got, you got to take it.
- 2:48Maybe people still listening to me on the show and make some
- 2:49money. Well, I know you didn't win any
- 2:54money on your on your picks on Saturday, so it doesn't matter
- 2:57anyways. No, even though you were the
- 2:59only one that was even a little bit on golden tempo.
- 3:02Yeah, Ocelli kind of threw that one off for me.
- 3:06So we'll see. What are you riding the Ocelli
- 3:09momentum as a start, pace, finish?
- 3:11We will find out here in a second.
- 3:13Let's go through. We'll start at #1 Taj Mahal,
- 3:18trained by Brittany Russell, ridden by her hubby Sheldon
- 3:25Russell. Morning line was 5 to 1.
- 3:30Neil, I've seen your spreadsheet.
- 3:31I know you've broke this down. Get us started your thoughts on
- 3:35Taj Mahal. Yeah.
- 3:36First of all, can I, can I say how cool it is that it's a
- 3:39husband, wife, jockey, trainer combo?
- 3:42I mean, we don't see that a lot, but that's kind of awesome.
- 3:46So I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing.
- 3:48A lot. Sometimes husbands and their
- 3:50wives don't get along all the time, so maybe they get
- 3:52disagreements on how to ride this horse.
- 3:54But I feel like in this case it's going to be a benefit.
- 3:57I like that this horse, undefeated, 3 for three
- 4:01lifetime. All of them at Laurel Park where
- 4:03this Preakness is being run. It's not at Pimlico.
- 4:06It is at Laurel Park. Small track, 4800 people.
- 4:10The last race he his last race he did win obviously 3 for three
- 4:13in the Federico Tessio Stakes on April 18th.
- 4:18If you ask me what that is, I have no idea.
- 4:20Probably a crappy field. But anyways, this kind of horse,
- 4:24he likes to get out front. So coming from the one spot,
- 4:26it's going to be to me a little bit of a negative.
- 4:29He's going to have to work hard to get out front where he wants
- 4:31to be. But if he does get out front, I
- 4:34think he could stay there. He went wire to wire in his last
- 4:37two starts for the win. He's a formerly trained Bob
- 4:41Baffert horse. So he does, you know, he
- 4:44obviously there was a time when somebody thought highly of him
- 4:47to get Bob Baffert to train him before he moved over to Brittany
- 4:50Russell's stable. So I think it's a quality horse.
- 4:53Like I said, 3 for three. He knows the track.
- 4:56I think he's got a good shot. If he can just get off, get off
- 4:58that rail, get out front, I think he's got a good shot at
- 5:00it. I am going to be taking the
- 5:06opposite side. I am tossing Taj Mahal.
- 5:10I look, I get it, 3 for three, Laurel Park, yadda, yadda.
- 5:15But again, it's the fields that he's gone again, gone up
- 5:18against. And I'm not saying that this is
- 5:19the best Preakness field ever. I just think the lights I and
- 5:24again, there's only 4000 people. So it's not like that is going
- 5:26to be too big of a, an issue. I just don't think it's going to
- 5:31show up and from one of the handicappers that I've follow
- 5:36pretty well. He tweeted out this morning that
- 5:42watching some of the morning video from laurels making me
- 5:45less confident that Taj Mahal is mentally prepared for the task
- 5:48at hand. And he's one of the David, the
- 5:51Daily Racing forums, David Aragona and I just I get it.
- 5:58He's 3 for three. He likes Laurel.
- 6:00I'm just going to have him in my toss.
- 6:02I just don't think he's going to show up come.
- 6:04Not even in the try supers like just complete trash for throwing
- 6:07them out. Wow.
- 6:09Well, I think this horse either wins or he's not.
- 6:13He's not finishing in the money and it's he has proven that he
- 6:19can win without bleeding wire to wire.
- 6:21He did that in his maiden race. But I mean, you mentioned it,
- 6:26the biggest race he's won is $150,000 race.
- 6:31Federico Tessio came off that race and won the Preakness since
- 6:391983. But I I can't toss this horse
- 6:46because he's 3 for three at Laurel.
- 6:51We just watched Sheree Devoe become the first trainer to win
- 6:56the Derby. Why not make it 2 in a straight?
- 6:58Two straight female trainers to win in the Triple Crown with
- 7:02Brittany Russell. And she would be the first to
- 7:05win the Preakness. I I think this horse will have a
- 7:09hard time getting the lead from the one spot, but I do think it
- 7:15can get second and third and figure out a way to win at the
- 7:19end. I've I've got Taj Mahal as a
- 7:22winked, we move on to #2 Ocelli, trained by Whitworth Beckham,
- 7:33ridden by Tyler G Matt, I'll let you lead off with the 3rd place
- 7:38finisher in the Derby. So Ocelli cost me money, and I
- 7:44feel like Ocelli cost a lot of us money.
- 7:46So I already have a little disdain for the whole.
- 7:54I just feel like he's going to get a lot of hype from the Derby
- 7:59race, rightfully so. You finished third in that
- 8:02field. I just don't see the Preakness
- 8:04race setting up like the Derby race did for where for him to
- 8:08excel. And there was since 2013.
- 8:14Horses who were never favored in a previous race are over 28 in
- 8:18the Preakness sticks. Ocelli is one of the OR Ocelli's
- 8:21never been a favorite in any of his races.
- 8:24I don't think he's going to come through and I'm going to keep
- 8:26him off my exact to try as well. He's in the toss category for
- 8:30me. Yeah, I I don't think he's going
- 8:36to win. He's so many.
- 8:37He's in my try super pick. I think if he runs the way he
- 8:40did in the Derby, he absolutely can win this race.
- 8:43I mean, it was a surprising day. He only lost by a length.
- 8:47You know, he finished third in the wood, one of the the Derby
- 8:50preps. I mean, it was not a very fast
- 8:52wood. We talked about that and you
- 8:53know, when the Derby lead up, but he did finish third.
- 8:59It was a he's never run or he's never won a race.
- 9:02Like we said, it's 8 refund would be the last Preakness
- 9:06winner to to win as a maiden in the Preakness.
- 9:11I mean, he's a closing horse. So it it all depends on the pace
- 9:14and it's going to depend on the pace.
- 9:15There's a lot of fresh horses. So coming off the two weeks
- 9:18we've talked about, you know, is that a positive or negative?
- 9:20A lot of people think it's a negative.
- 9:22So a lot of fresh horses he's running up against.
- 9:24I don't think he wins. I think he comes from off the
- 9:26pace and might get up to 3rd or 4th.
- 9:30But if you could somehow pull off a Derby effort, which I
- 9:33think was a fluke, if you pull that effort off again, maybe he
- 9:36does pull out a win. So where?
- 9:38What are you going? I'm going the try super pick.
- 9:40I think he gets up for 3rd or 4th late.
- 9:44See, I think you kind of you said it, but then you put him in
- 9:48your try super. You said it was a fluke and I
- 9:54look, there's a lot of horses that want the lead in this race,
- 9:58but I do not think that the pace is just absolutely going to
- 10:01collapse like it did in the Derby, which to me this horse is
- 10:05going to get over bet because he finished third in the Derby,
- 10:08which which makes me want to put him in the toss category.
- 10:12I will say this, if this if the Derby's a mile and three
- 10:17sixteenths, Ocelli might be your winner right now.
- 10:21Yeah, yeah. Like because Wallaby.
- 10:25Wallaby is your winner. Wallaby was coming.
- 10:28But he had the lead, yeah. Wallaby never had the lead.
- 10:32Yeah. Ocelli.
- 10:33Was in the lead. Right.
- 10:37Yes, yeah. Yeah, but.
- 10:41Still IO for seven, like both of y'all have had two points that I
- 10:48had written down. A maiden has not won the
- 10:50Preakness since 88. Somebody's not a horse has never
- 10:55been favored. Has it won since?
- 10:56What was that number 83? It was O for 28 since 2013. 2013
- 11:02yeah, I think this because this horse is going to be overpriced.
- 11:07I'm I'm throwing in my toss category.
- 11:12We now move to Krupper trained by Donnie Van Hemel ridden by
- 11:16Junior Alvarado was 30 to one on the morning line.
- 11:20Neil, this horse. Is terrible.
- 11:23This horse is one of the ones. It's absolutely terrible.
- 11:28It's his greatest stakes debut. He's never rained in a greatest
- 11:30stakes race. He's won his last race on April
- 11:3318th in something called the Bath House Row Stakes.
- 11:36Anybody ever heard of that? No, never heard of it.
- 11:39Some crap race. He's got poor speed.
- 11:42Figures he won't keep up with the quick pace.
- 11:45This course is. The only positive of this horse
- 11:47is Junior Alvarado's riding him, who's a jockey on sovereignty,
- 11:50who was probably the best horse last year, but that was more of
- 11:53the horse than the jockey. Yeah.
- 11:56No, this horse has no shot. He's throw them all the way out,
- 11:59toss no chance. Throw them in the dumpster.
- 12:05Yeah, I I would agree. I.
- 12:08Would agree yes, it beat steaks company out last time, but we're
- 12:12going to use air quotes on that steaks company and it needed an
- 12:16absolute perfect trip. It's just too slow of a horse
- 12:19and it's not going to work in this race.
- 12:21So I am I he toss and I'm adding on the no chance.
- 12:27Yeah. This is this is, I mean, look at
- 12:29some of these Briznet figs 67717976.
- 12:36That's four of his six figs. And look, if you're if I'm going
- 12:43to pick a long shot, it's not going to be one that wants to be
- 12:45upfront because he's not going to get the lead.
- 12:48He's not fast enough get the lead.
- 12:50This is an absolute no chance. So I think we offer.
- 12:59Yeah, sorry. God Junior Alvarado's never won
- 13:01the Preakness. Well, he's going to go one year,
- 13:05Albert. He would have run last year, he
- 13:07would have won one, but they were babies and decided to skip
- 13:10it. Way to keep it PG with with the
- 13:13babies there. We we move on.
- 13:19Robusta trained by dog O'Neill, ridden by Rafael Barano.
- 13:23Also, Morning line of 30 to 1. Matt, your thoughts on this
- 13:27horse? I have Robusta in my Exacto Try
- 13:30Super. I think it's, I know he didn't
- 13:34have the best showing in the Derby, but I'm going to lean on
- 13:37in this race experience against good fields and just running in
- 13:41the Derby gives you that. And I feel like with his race
- 13:44style, he has a chance to get in there in the end or be up there
- 13:48and stay up in your second, third four spots.
- 13:51So I've got him in the Exacto Try Super spot.
- 13:57Yeah, No, no, this horse has no chance.
- 13:59I mean, we talked. Yeah.
- 14:01He ran against the Quality Field in the Derby, but he finished
- 14:0314th and he lost by 18 links. I mean, any horse can go out
- 14:07there and lose by 18 links like a freaking donkey can do that.
- 14:10So now this horse is out. He, his career highlight was
- 14:14finishing second to Patente in the San Felipe Stakes.
- 14:18He finished seventh in the Santa Anita Derby.
- 14:20I mean, he's going to try to get out early.
- 14:22He's one of those pacesetters. He's going to be up there with
- 14:24Taj Mahal and and some of the others.
- 14:27But he's going to fade. He's going to try to get out
- 14:30quick. It's going to be too fast for
- 14:31him. He's out.
- 14:33I mean, his only positive is Doug O'Neill as his trainer, but
- 14:36other than that, this horse. He did.
- 14:40He did no running in the Derby. So you wonder, like, does that
- 14:45help him is maybe he's a little fresh because.
- 14:48He jogged. Really.
- 14:49He jogged on the Derby. He did.
- 14:51Nothing I will say some of his speed figures aren't that bad
- 14:56like he he's posted a 97 in the San Felipe where he finished
- 14:59second by a head to potente. He's prime power, 7th in in this
- 15:06field, but I don't really want a long shot that's going to want
- 15:12the lead. And that's why I I'm putting
- 15:16robusta in in my toss category just because I don't I don't
- 15:20think you can get it. And when he can't get the lead,
- 15:22he's he's going to falter and fall out of the money.
- 15:24That's just my thoughts on and all these horses, one of like
- 15:30there's so many of them want to be up front.
- 15:33Yeah, yeah, the. Five Horse is Talking by Danny
- 15:39Gargeon written by Irad I'll. He weighs morning line of 20 to
- 15:451. Neil, your thoughts?
- 15:48You guys might have him in your toss category.
- 15:50He's 20 to 1. He's kind of a long shot, not
- 15:54quite there. I think he could potentially
- 15:56sneak into a top four. I have him in my Tri Super.
- 16:00He finished third in the Bluegrass Stakes behind winner
- 16:03Further Ado. He was fifth in the Tampa Bay
- 16:05Derby behind the Puma and the Further Ado.
- 16:07So he's raced against quality competition.
- 16:09I mean, Further Ado in the Puma would have been two of the
- 16:11favorites in the Derby. He is over 4 in greatest stakes
- 16:16race. He's lost by a combined 41 1/2
- 16:18lengths, which is not great. I mean, he's going to be behind
- 16:22the pacesetter. She's going to push him a little
- 16:23bit. He's going to sit there and try
- 16:25to make his move. You know, the the positive is I
- 16:30read Ortiz is on him, which I read was going to be on the
- 16:33probable favorite Silent Tactic before it scratched.
- 16:35So he's got one of the best jockeys on him who knows what to
- 16:38do in a in a race like this. I think he's not going to win,
- 16:42but I think he could sneaky get up in there in that third,
- 16:44fourth spot. So as of right now, and again
- 16:51this is with only like 188,000 in the wind pool fucking it's
- 16:57down to 7 to 1. Early money.
- 17:01Yep, early money on talking is at 7.
- 17:05To 1. I love the 20 to 1 price, the
- 17:08seven to one, yeah. Yeah, I I have it in my toss
- 17:15category just based on the fact that like it hasn't like it came
- 17:20in third in the blue bluegrass. And if you figure how far
- 17:24Further Ado finished, like third was really like fifth because
- 17:28Further Ado ran away like crazy in that race.
- 17:31And Tampa Bay Downs also fit 5th.
- 17:34But again, it's a much better field.
- 17:36He's. Looked really good in his.
- 17:37First two starts but I feel like his form has declined since
- 17:40we've stretched out around 2 turns and I just not going to go
- 17:44with him to figure it out in a race like this.
- 17:46So he is in my toss category. Yeah, at 20 to 1, I I'm putting
- 17:53him in my trying. Speaker but at 7:00 to 1:00 and
- 17:58it's all because of Irad. And that was the concern to
- 18:00begin with is look, there's a pro and a con with Irad be being
- 18:05aboard like you're getting a good jockey, but you're also
- 18:08going to be back down. And is that horse good enough to
- 18:10be that price? And I don't think talking is
- 18:13that good a price. He ran a bullet half mile at
- 18:15Keeneland on May night. That's another reason why I
- 18:18think everybody's so keen on him.
- 18:20But a 7 to 1. He has not proved that he has
- 18:25the ability to beat or even really hang for the most part
- 18:29with horses of this caliber and not I get it.
- 18:31I know that this race is not the caliber of the Derby, but at
- 18:357:00 to 1:00 I got AI got a toss talking.
- 18:39Yeah, I don't like the seven to one Pride, huh?
- 18:41At 20 to 1, I loved him. I didn't know he's back down at
- 18:437:00 to 1:00. Yeah, I'm still.
- 18:44I think awesome, I think. He could still, he could still
- 18:46get up to get third or fourth, I think.
- 18:48Yeah, but you're. Not going to get early it's.
- 18:52Early, so it's going to change at some point, but having that
- 18:56much money now is kind of tough. Yeah.
- 19:01And look, he's going to be up, but he's not necessarily a horse
- 19:04that's going to be in the top 1-2 or three.
- 19:07So I mean, I guess there's a chance that he could get up and
- 19:10get in the money, but still, it's it's a toss for me at that
- 19:15price. And look, I was going to say
- 19:17that even before I knew he was 7 to 1 because I'd figured he was
- 19:20going to get that down. I just, I didn't know it had
- 19:23already happened. Move on to Chip Honcho trained
- 19:28by Steve Asmussen Written by Jose Ortiz Matt, start us off.
- 19:33I've got Chip Honcho in my win contender.
- 19:37He is one of the few horses that has actually had a graded stakes
- 19:42win, so that's impressive in this field.
- 19:46And his best performance actually probably to me was the
- 19:50coming runner up at the Risen Star, finishing behind Paladin,
- 19:53who Paladin was probably going to be a Derby favorite, had it
- 19:56ran and he was 5 lengths ahead of Golden Tempo in that race.
- 20:01So you got Honcho, he's got graded stakes experience and he
- 20:07has Jose Ortiz on. I'm Jose's going.
- 20:13I think it said he'd be the first jockey since Calvin
- 20:16Burrell to ride a different horse.
- 20:18But you could win the Derby and with the win the Preakness.
- 20:21So I'm going to go with Chip Honcho on my win contender.
- 20:27There's there's a lot of positives to this horse.
- 20:30I don't have him as a win contender.
- 20:31I have him in that try, Super pick he in his last race, he
- 20:35finished fifth in the Louisiana Derby.
- 20:37But he did go up against a lot of quality horses.
- 20:40Emerging market. By 11 links.
- 20:42Yeah, he, he, he lost the Emerging Market Pavlovian and
- 20:46the Derby winner Golden Tempo in that race, but it was quality
- 20:49horses. But he also have proved, you
- 20:51know, he can, he can outrun quality horse.
- 20:54He beat Golden Tempo, as Matt said, and that Risen Star Stakes
- 20:57on February 14th when he lost the Palladian.
- 21:01He's got good early speed. His late speed is absolutely
- 21:04terrible and he's lost ground in the stretch and is all of his
- 21:07last three races and he's not one as a three-year old.
- 21:09He's over as a three-year old. His graded stakes win, which he
- 21:13I think he is the only horse in the field that does have a
- 21:15greatest stakes win, came as a 2 year old and the Gun Runner
- 21:18Stakes. A little concerned there that he
- 21:21hasn't been as good as a three-year old as he was as a 2
- 21:25year old. He does have a really good
- 21:27trainer and Steve Asmussen who's won two Preaknesses with Carlin
- 21:31and and Rachel Alexandra and he does have a good jockey and Jose
- 21:34Ortiz, who's hot right now. You know, he's won the Oaks, he
- 21:36won the Derby, why not win the Preakness?
- 21:39I think he's a quality horse. I don't think he's a horse good
- 21:43enough to win this race. I think he he'll be there at the
- 21:45top of the stretch, but he'll fade.
- 21:48I think he probably ends up in that second, third four spot.
- 21:51I'm putting him in my Tri super pick.
- 21:55Yeah, and they one of the things they talk about him is like he's
- 21:58been a really high strung horse and they take the fact that
- 22:01Laurel is only Holland 4800 fans might actually play in his
- 22:07favor. But I just keep looking at that
- 22:11Louisiana Derby, like it just sticks out to me.
- 22:15And that's the last time we've seen him.
- 22:17And Steve Asmussen couldn't really find a legit excuse for
- 22:22why he ran so poorly. I I do wonder if there was a
- 22:30like he skipped the Derby, he could have ran in the Derby and
- 22:33set his sights on the Preakness and it is Steve Asmussen.
- 22:36He does have some decent speed figures.
- 22:38So I don't think I can toss this horse completely.
- 22:41I I'm with Neil, I got I I got to put this horse in in my Tri
- 22:44super contenders like. Was the Louisiana Derby, was
- 22:46that just the one off? Was that just a bad day?
- 22:49I mean, like he, like he, he ran great as a 2 year old and you
- 22:53know, he in that Risen * Stakes when he finished second, that
- 22:57was a great race he ran there. I mean, losing a Derby seems to
- 23:01be an outline. Yeah.
- 23:04I I and but that's but that race alone is why I can't move.
- 23:09That's. That's a big factor why I don't
- 23:10have a minute. We move on to the best horse
- 23:15name in the race. The Hell We Did, trained by Todd
- 23:18Fincher, ridden by Luis Saez, was 15 to one on the morning
- 23:22line. It's Matt's turn, I believe.
- 23:28I have the hell we did in the exacta and try category for me.
- 23:37I know he ran second in the Lexington Stakes first time
- 23:40stretching out, but looked like he was really good in his prior
- 23:46start at Sunland Park. Step up in competition.
- 23:49But he's got Louis, Louis Saez on board.
- 23:52I think he can kind of hang around and sneak in.
- 23:54Even if he's not, he's going to want to get out front, but he I
- 23:57don't think he needs to be out front.
- 23:58If he can kind of do a stalking trip, I think he's got a shot to
- 24:01get in that second, third, fourth category.
- 24:06No, this horse has a great name, but he's not a great horse.
- 24:09I mean, he he did finish second in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes.
- 24:14His two wins that he has have come only at six furlongs
- 24:18against not good competition. So 6 furlongs ain't going to get
- 24:22it. Like you win in that, it's fine,
- 24:23but it ain't going to cut it in in this Preakness.
- 24:26So I think the distance and he's stepping up into a grade one
- 24:29race. He's not he's got no chance.
- 24:32He's he's a toss category. I like Luis Saez, but no this
- 24:35horse. Good name but throw him in the
- 24:37trash can. Never worse than 4th or never
- 24:41worse than second and in four starts and the son of authentic.
- 24:48But here's another one to me that it's another horse that
- 24:51wants to be upfront is not fast enough to be upfront.
- 24:56This is this is a toss for me. The next horse is Bull by the
- 25:03Horns, trained by Safi Joseph, ridden by Micah Husbands, 30 to
- 25:08one at on the Morning Line, Neil.
- 25:15Yeah, this horse doesn't really have much of a chance.
- 25:18I've got him in my toss. He's a closer, which we saw in
- 25:21the Derby that closer's, you know, they, they got up for 1st
- 25:24and 2nd, so not necessarily a bad thing.
- 25:27He won his last race on March 21st and something called the
- 25:30Rushaway Stakes. Don't know what that is, but he
- 25:33came from last at the six furlong pole to win.
- 25:37So he did come from behind. He defeated Lexington Stakes
- 25:39winner Trendsetter in the Rushaway Stakes and Trendsetter
- 25:43is beating two other Preakness horses.
- 25:44That's probably the only positive of this horse as he's
- 25:47beating somebody that's beating other horses in this race.
- 25:51It's only one graded stakes start and that was the G2
- 25:54Fountain of Youth Stakes and finished 7th by 19 legs.
- 25:58So not a good horse. Low speed numbers, no shot.
- 26:02The trainer's not bad. The trainer does have a couple
- 26:04graded 1 stakes that wins this year with White Abario and
- 26:06Skippy Long Stocking, but the trainer's about the only
- 26:09positive of this horse. I don't think the horse is any
- 26:11good out toss. Boss No.
- 26:17Chance for me simply because he is yet to run a buyer speed
- 26:21figure higher than 70. So he's.
- 26:28Is he the slowest horse in the field by speed figures?
- 26:32I think he is Like the only thing that makes me even think
- 26:38about putting him and try and try supers is the fact that if
- 26:43you look at the sheets like it's really just him.
- 26:48Oh, silly and incredible that really don't want to get out
- 26:51front. And if this pace is super hot,
- 26:55then you know some one of these horses is going to make a run.
- 26:59And if this horse is going to be worse than 30 to 1, which he
- 27:04could be potentially makes me potentially like want to throw
- 27:08him in my try in my super, just hoping he gets a piece.
- 27:13But I just look at his numbers and I'm like, I don't know if
- 27:16that's even possible, but I got to find one horse that's going
- 27:20to you don't make a charge late. I don't know who that's going to
- 27:23be. I I'm tossing bull by the horn.
- 27:26He's just not fast enough. 17 to one right now.
- 27:29Yeah. There's no chance.
- 27:30Is anybody? Even 30 to one anymore?
- 27:33What's the longest odds in the field?
- 27:35Pretty boy Mia is at 42 right now, OK?
- 27:39It was 15 to 1 to start on the morning line, so everybody at
- 27:43least agrees with that. Horse sucks, but we'll get to
- 27:45that in a little bit. Iron.
- 27:48Honor, trained by Chad Brown, ridden by Flavian Pratt, was 9
- 27:53to 2. Neil.
- 27:57Really like this horse. Absolutely like this horse.
- 27:59Put him in my win category. He had a bad wood memorial.
- 28:03He was the five to two favorite in the wood, finished 7th, but
- 28:07he did come out of the 17 post in the wood, had a bad trip.
- 28:11So to me I think that was more of a fluke than anything.
- 28:14He won the Gotham Stakes, which is a Grade 3 stakes race on
- 28:18February 28th. He's 2 for three in his
- 28:20lifetime, so he's lightly raced. Not a lot of wear and tear on
- 28:23that one. Both of his wins have come by
- 28:26pressing the pace, which I think he'll do here.
- 28:29He'll push the the likes of Taj Mahal and and some of the other
- 28:33pace setters. So I think he'll be right there
- 28:35ready to make his move and I think he will.
- 28:39The only negative to him is he's not want to race over a mile,
- 28:42but I don't think a lot of these horses have either.
- 28:44So that's not too big of a concern.
- 28:47He'll he's racing with blinkers off, that's all they're taking
- 28:49those off. So a little bit of a change
- 28:50there, but the biggest positive to me is Chad Brown, who's had
- 28:54success in the Preakness with horses that are fresh, that
- 28:56didn't run the Derby, just skipping them to the Preakness.
- 28:59He's won two of those with Early Voting in 2022 and Cloud
- 29:03Computing in 2017. This horse I think has the
- 29:07favorite in the wood. I think he's had a bad trip, 2
- 29:10for three in his lifetime as a stakes win, greatest stakes win,
- 29:13put him in that win category. I think he can do it.
- 29:17Yep, I completely agree. He's also in my win category.
- 29:21He is, you know, going to stock, which I think this race needs.
- 29:26So if you, I know closers do well in the Derby, I think see
- 29:30if you can stock this pace and you don't fall apart, I think
- 29:33that's where you're going to want to be.
- 29:34So I have him in my win category.
- 29:39And you know, we talked about Chip Poncho and how his
- 29:46Louisiana Derby, that poor performance, like there was no
- 29:48excuse for it. I think there was an excuse for
- 29:51Iron Honor in the wood. He kind of got bumped at the
- 29:55gate and we're just really just was behind the 8 ball the whole
- 30:00way. If you if you just cross that
- 30:03race out, which like I said, I think you can do that.
- 30:06He's the best horse in this field.
- 30:08And Chad Brown has had success, just like Neil said, with
- 30:12skipping the Derby. You do wonder a little bit like
- 30:15why did Chad Brown feel more comfortable going with emerging
- 30:18market and not Iron Honor in the Derby?
- 30:20Like is that a negative or is it a positive that he's pointing
- 30:24this way? Like I, I think this is a clear
- 30:28I, I think and the fact that he's going to be just right off
- 30:31the lead, I think is an absolute plus.
- 30:34This is a This is a definite win candidate for me.
- 30:37Yeah, it coming out of post 9 I think way better than what he
- 30:41had in the woods. So post come out of post 9
- 30:43definitely a positive. What are his I'm at?
- 30:45What are his odds currently? He is at 8:00 to 1:00.
- 30:52Great. Price.
- 30:53There's a great price on Iron Honor.
- 30:55He will. Not be 8:00 to 1:00 on Saturday.
- 30:57Yeah, right now, again, early, early, early odds like you're,
- 31:01you're leading the horses 5 to 1.
- 31:04So we're going to get a good price.
- 31:07We're going to. Get a good price.
- 31:08So hopefully, yeah, you got to get it right.
- 31:11And then I, I've got some things before before we get going to
- 31:14the next one. I feel like the Preakness has
- 31:17been negatively influenced the last few years due to heavy
- 31:20favourites like influencing the wind pools and such.
- 31:24Like. I went back the last three years
- 31:26and last year you had journalism at 1:00 to 1:00, even odds and
- 31:32Oscar 15 to one, that $1.00 exact only paid out 16 bucks.
- 31:37And you'd think that even in 15 to one would get you a good
- 31:40price. I mean, 9 to 1, two to one the
- 31:42year before paid out 60, so that was better.
- 31:45But then you had five to two, nine to two in 2023 and it was
- 31:48only $16.00. So you kind of need prices in
- 31:52the Preakness, I feel like. And if we can make sure that
- 31:55whoever is the favorite going off is no worse than four to
- 31:58one, that's good for us. If we, you know, pick right.
- 32:02That's just the trick. Pick it right.
- 32:09We move. On to Napoleon Solo, trained by
- 32:16Chad Summers, written by Paco Lopez, was 8 to 1 on The Morning
- 32:19Line. Matt, your thoughts on Napoleon
- 32:22Solo? I have.
- 32:24Napoleon Solo in my trifecta, superfecta spot.
- 32:29I think it's got, you know, he's one of those horses that has
- 32:33some excuses for his poor performances.
- 32:35I feel like the last few times out and in this field, I think
- 32:39he's got enough. Skill.
- 32:42To get into those 2-3 and four spots, so I'm not going to throw
- 32:46them out. I'm going to have him hanging
- 32:47around. I think he can kind of if he
- 32:49runs a good race, he can finish in 3rd or 4th.
- 32:55He's an OK horse. I I debated going back and forth
- 32:59between the try super slash toss.
- 33:02Ultimately I ended up tossing this horse.
- 33:05He finished fifth in the wood. He also ran 5th in the Fountain
- 33:08of Youth behind Really Quality Horses in Commandment and Chief
- 33:12Wallaby, 2 of the Derby favorites.
- 33:14He was great as a 2 year old. He won a Grade 1 stakes.
- 33:17In the Champagne Stakes, he went wire to wire and defeated
- 33:20Talking, who's also in this Preakness race back in October.
- 33:23However, as a three-year old has not yet finished in the money.
- 33:26So for that reason, not finishing the money as a
- 33:28three-year old is why I tossed him.
- 33:30He's going to get out. He's probably the one of the
- 33:32fastest, if not the fastest of the pace setters.
- 33:34So I think he will be the one to set this pace.
- 33:38I just don't know if he's got the stamina to do it over a mile
- 33:41and three sixteenths. I think he fades.
- 33:43I think he's out for most. You'll see it.
- 33:45You'll see his number out first for for a lot of the way, but
- 33:49then he'll end up 67. I think he's out.
- 33:54I this is the horse that's going to get the lead, this is the
- 33:58horse that's going to be out front.
- 33:59And I'll be honest, as a 2 year old dude, this horse was talked
- 34:04about as one of the best 2 year olds in the country.
- 34:07And that wind in the champagne that Neil just talked about, He
- 34:11didn't just win like dude, he dominated that race.
- 34:14Like he played with them, let him catch up like he was dying a
- 34:17little bit and then he just put in another gear and 1 by 6
- 34:20links. I to me, I don't know if this
- 34:25horse can go a mile and three sixteenths, but from what I saw
- 34:31as a 2 year old, I'm putting him in the wind.
- 34:34I think this could be. How do you put?
- 34:37How do you put him? In the wank.
- 34:38At this is the. Money, I think there's.
- 34:40A chance that this horse could get the lead and can finish the
- 34:44race. I will not put him like I think
- 34:47he's either going to win or he's going to falter and be out of
- 34:49the money. But I do think this horse is
- 34:52super talented and if he gets the lead on his own, can figure
- 34:56out a way to finish the race. But we're going.
- 34:57To discount the last two races he ran as a three-year old where
- 35:00he finished fifth and 5th. He hasn't finished the money yet
- 35:03as a three-year old, but you're going to put him in the wind
- 35:05Cat? I.
- 35:07Saw how talented this horse is. A2.
- 35:08He's not. Two anymore.
- 35:10He's not 2. He's now three.
- 35:12He's a somewhat of a grown up as a horse.
- 35:14He's not what he was. We're not going to agree on all
- 35:18these like I, I wonder if he's, he probably is just a Miller.
- 35:25But what? What's his number right now,
- 35:26Matt? His.
- 35:28Number right now is 11 to 1. At 11:00 to 1:00, I'm going to
- 35:33take a chance on that. 11 to 1's actually not a bad price for
- 35:38him, but it's fine. But yeah, no kidding, it's fine.
- 35:46Corona. De Oro, trained by Dallas
- 35:49Stewart, ridden by Johnny Velasquez.
- 35:52What are your opinion on this horse so I can yell at you now?
- 35:56Yeah, this horse doesn't have a chance.
- 35:58Throw him out, put him in the dumpster.
- 36:00His last race he was third in the Lexington Stakes behind
- 36:03Trendsetter and Prickness Horse. The hell We did.
- 36:07It's as a big step up in competition for him.
- 36:09His only career win was a wire to wire against the weak field
- 36:12back at the Fairgrounds in March.
- 36:15I don't think he's going to be able to get out and get the lead
- 36:17against some of these other quality horses like I think he
- 36:20wants to. He's just going to be left
- 36:23behind. To me, he's got no chance.
- 36:28One cool thing is if Johnny Velasquez wins, at age 54, he
- 36:31would be the oldest jockey to win the Preakness, surpassing
- 36:34Mike Smith. So that would be kind of cool.
- 36:36But to me, that ain't going to happen.
- 36:38This horse? No chance.
- 36:39Like Dallas Stewart, but this horse doesn't belong.
- 36:45I was. Going back and forth, I actually
- 36:47have them in my trifecta, superfecta spot.
- 36:51I, you know, I feel like him being just off the pace is going
- 36:56to help because we don't have a lot of horses in this race that
- 36:59are just off the pace. And Dallas Stewart has been
- 37:02known to fill out those exact, those tries and superfectas and
- 37:06Triple Crown races. The only negative is that the
- 37:10last two races have been his best and he's run with LASIK.
- 37:14He is not running with LASIK on Saturday.
- 37:16So I went back and forth between the exacta and the try and the
- 37:19toss. I'm just going to throw him in
- 37:21there just in case he comes into that fourth spot.
- 37:26This horse is 5 for five in the money and that is the last
- 37:30positive thing I'm going to say about it.
- 37:33Took him four times to break his maiden and he broke it at
- 37:3854,000. Like you shouldn't.
- 37:43There shouldn't be horses in the Triple Crown that broke their
- 37:47maiden at 54 K. He's just not fast enough.
- 37:53This horse is a no chance toss. We.
- 38:01Move on to Incredible Train by Riley Mott, ridden by Jaime
- 38:05Torres. Matt, you were on this horse in
- 38:08the Derby. Yeah, we'll let you.
- 38:11Lead off with this one. Yeah, I was in in on him as like
- 38:15the mid by mid pack choice and I don't think the way he ran the
- 38:20Derby is taking me off of him. I thought he ran a pretty good
- 38:22race, thinks he's going to be all right to run in two weeks,
- 38:26in two weeks time. And I liked again his stakes win
- 38:32the way he did. It works well in a race like
- 38:34this. He doesn't need to be in the
- 38:36lead. He can push the pace and
- 38:38hopefully take advantage when those leaders fall back a little
- 38:41bit. So I I definitely have him as my
- 38:43wing container. He is my favorite in this race.
- 38:50Yeah, no, I mean, he, he's, he's one of the favorites for sure.
- 38:54He's one of my favorites. I don't know if he's the
- 38:57favorite for me, but he's one of the best horses in this race.
- 39:00I've got him as a win contender. He finished sixth in the
- 39:03Kentucky Derby by 4 lengths and that was after being bumped
- 39:05around a little bit, so he really could have gotten even
- 39:07better than that. He won the Virginia Derby back
- 39:10on March 14th. He's got one of the best late
- 39:14pace numbers in this field. He's a closer, which I think a
- 39:17closer is probably going to end up winning this thing, so that's
- 39:20a positive. He does have the only two turn
- 39:24graded stakes winner when of the field when he won the street
- 39:27since as a 2 year old there was an outlier there.
- 39:31He finished last in the Holy Bowl in January.
- 39:33So I don't know what was up with that.
- 39:35I'm just going to throw that one out because I think he's better
- 39:37than that. And as the quote from Riley Mott
- 39:41of why he ran this horse, he's doing extremely well.
- 39:44He came out of the Derby in good shape and we've been clocking
- 39:47the field of Preakness horses and we thought it would be the
- 39:50right opportunity to bring this horse back.
- 39:52So to me, he's in this race because the other horse of this
- 39:55field suck and with that thought process, that's awesome.
- 39:59I think he's probably good win this.
- 40:01I mean, that's one of the reasons I think he's going to
- 40:03win. His trainer thinks he's the best
- 40:04horse. He is the best horse.
- 40:07He's in the wind category. Yeah, we we talked about that
- 40:11holy bull in in our Derby preview just because it was so
- 40:16bad. Like you finished 25 links out
- 40:18of it in 6th place. But now we're two races past
- 40:22that. We've seen him win the Virginia
- 40:24Derby. We've seen him compete in the
- 40:26Kentucky Derby. He's going to be close enough to
- 40:30where I think he has a chance now.
- 40:32Look, Ocelli beat him in the Derby, but I don't think the
- 40:36pace is going to collapse like it did in the Derby.
- 40:39So that's why I'm more on incredible than I am Ocelli.
- 40:43Also take like I said, Ocelli's number is going to be way too
- 40:46low for me to want any part of him.
- 40:49I I've got this horse not as a wing contender, but as a try
- 40:54super contender. What are the odds on incredible
- 40:57right now? Feel like he might be the
- 40:58favorite. Incredible is 6 to 1, Sally is
- 41:0310 to 1 your. Current.
- 41:06Money line favorite is Taj Mahal at 5:00 to 1:00.
- 41:10Do you want to guess who is tied with Incredible at 6:00 to 1:00?
- 41:18Pancho. Fire an honor?
- 41:21Nope. Nope.
- 41:23It's. Our next horse, 13 Great White
- 41:25is 6 to one right now. Oh.
- 41:28OK, Shikes, let's get to it. Great White, trained by John
- 41:33Ennis, ridden by Alex Shard, was 15 to one.
- 41:38He's not 15 to one anymore. Neil, your thoughts on the giant
- 41:43Great White, I mean. We there's, I mean, we can
- 41:46basically just rinse and repeat what we talked about in before
- 41:49the Derby, because I mean, he did run in the Derby.
- 41:51He decided to flip over and do a barrel roll before the gate and
- 41:54they threw him out scratch. Before the Derby.
- 41:58Before that, he finished fifth in the Bluegrass Stakes but lost
- 42:00by 22 legs behind Preakness winner One of the Horses
- 42:05Talking. I mean, a smaller venue like
- 42:08Laurel Park might not get him as excited as he was in the Derby.
- 42:11So maybe he has the nerves are a little calmer and he's not, you
- 42:13know, doing backflips before the gate.
- 42:15So that might help. We talked about him being such a
- 42:18large horse at over 1300 lbs. So I don't know he'll he'll push
- 42:24the pace setters in this race. I think he fades.
- 42:27I hate the six to one price or five to one price or whatever
- 42:30you just said. He is not that good of a horse.
- 42:33I've got him in my toss category.
- 42:34He's out. Yeah, I had him in my toss
- 42:38category before. The early odds have been him
- 42:41down to six to one. I just think that, like, again,
- 42:43he's a great horse to talk about.
- 42:44It's a great story because he's huge, but he didn't even come
- 42:49close to messing around in the Bluegrass with Further Ado and
- 42:53any of the horses he finished way back.
- 42:55So I am just tossing him because you might argue that the
- 42:59Bluegrass states might have had a better field than this.
- 43:02It's close. It's very close, so if he was
- 43:06that far back in could be an even or better race.
- 43:10It's tossed for me. Keep keep betting him everybody,
- 43:15please, please. Please this, this could be the
- 43:19so happy of this race. Why?
- 43:21Are like, I don't understand what, what what why are people
- 43:23betting them? Because they feel bad because he
- 43:25got thrown out of the Derby. Like they just know the name
- 43:27because he got thrown on the Derby I think.
- 43:28It's because I think it's a combination that everybody saw
- 43:31him flip. He's huge, He's a Gray.
- 43:34Like there's, there's a lot of elements to it.
- 43:36There's just. Nothing about him as a great
- 43:38horse runner that makes him any good dude.
- 43:40That bluegrass is the only time he's ran on dirt and he came in
- 43:47fifth by 22 links. His two wins are both on
- 43:49synthetic at Turfway. I mean, he he's got his speed
- 43:55figures. Others like are 807981 like keep
- 44:01keep betting him everybody make him the favorite and I I will
- 44:07toss him and try to beat him every single time.
- 44:11Nick. You said we're not live right.
- 44:12We're. Not.
- 44:13Because. They just had an update.
- 44:15He is now tied for your money line favorite a 5 to 1.
- 44:20Keep it coming. Literally.
- 44:22As you're talking about it, incredible.
- 44:24Let's get him down to 2 to one. Incredible.
- 44:27Went to 7 to 1. Great White is now 5.
- 44:30I love it. Absurd.
- 44:31That's absurd. We round out the field with
- 44:35pretty boy Mia, ridden by or trained by Jeremiah Englehart,
- 44:39ridden by Ricardo Santana. Matt, I think it's your turn to
- 44:43finish this out here. I really don't don't have much
- 44:49about him so I have him in my toss category and he is
- 44:53currently 636 to 1 so the highest off so he.
- 44:56Is he the longest odds on the board?
- 44:58Yeah. He's the longest shot, yes.
- 45:00Now. They're going to want to get him
- 45:02up front, which again, if you're not a talented horse in this
- 45:06field and you want to get up front, it's not going to go well
- 45:08for you and you're all the way out and post 14, so all the way
- 45:11outside. Not a good combination.
- 45:14He's toss. Yeah, now this is the worst
- 45:17horse in the field. There's no doubt about it.
- 45:19He won his last race, a claiming race, on April 25th at Aqueduct.
- 45:24Never run a never run a race longer than a mile.
- 45:28He's got some impressive Sprint speed, but as you said, coming
- 45:32from 14th he's going to have to Sprint his ass off to try to get
- 45:34out front, which is what he's going to want to do, and that's
- 45:36just going to waste all that energy.
- 45:38He's no chance, absolutely no chance.
- 45:41Never run a race outside of aqueducts.
- 45:44Never rushed against competition like this.
- 45:47Throw him in the dumpster. Send him to the dog food
- 45:50factory. I agree with everything he said
- 45:53except I don't know if he's the worst horse in the field.
- 45:55I mean he he posted AA95 Brisnet in in his win, won by 6 lengths.
- 46:00What? What, what, what?
- 46:02What is the what? What race did he win?
- 46:04I don't even know the name of the race.
- 46:06It was a. Maiden 80, so it's higher than
- 46:08the 54 that we talked about earlier.
- 46:12No, this horse has absolutely no chance.
- 46:13It's a terrible draw. It's a terrible race for him.
- 46:16Everybody wants to lead. He's not going to get it.
- 46:21Yeah, let's just. But I I don't think he's the
- 46:23worst horse in the field. Who do you think is the worst
- 46:26horse in the field? I think it's a competition.
- 46:32Bull by the horns. Between that or Krapper, I think
- 46:37Krapper is the worst horse in the field.
- 46:39Crapper, krapper, crapper. Yeah.
- 46:43Crapper bull by the ones. Yes, they're the two worst
- 46:45horses in the field. All right.
- 46:49Let's do last lap for the Derby. We did three horses.
- 46:54We're only going to do 2 here, Neil 1.
- 46:56So you you get the 3rd pick. Matt and I essentially tied our
- 47:01our points. I don't even remember who came
- 47:03in second or third, but they were close.
- 47:06But Matt's going to lead us off. You get the first pick in the
- 47:09first ever height differential, Preakness draft.
- 47:13Who you taking? 12.
- 47:15Incredible. You can take me on Saturday.
- 47:22I will go with Iron Honour. I just think he's the best horse
- 47:28in the field. He doesn't absolutely have to
- 47:30get up front, can just kind of stalk and then take the lead
- 47:33whenever he feels like he wants it.
- 47:37And then I've got two horses that I'm it's not your.
- 47:42Draft pick. Yeah.
- 47:43Yes. It is I get 2.
- 47:45No, we drafted yet. Yeah, Neil hasn't drafted yet,
- 47:48buddy. Yeah, you're.
- 47:49An idiot. No.
- 47:52He's stealing the horses. You get Taj Mahal, Sully Robusta
- 47:58talking Chibancho. Oh, I'm sorry, you don't go get
- 48:01any. Neil's got property.
- 48:03So needs to be in the last pick. Like what are you talking about
- 48:08all? Right.
- 48:09Make your pick well. I wanted to iron on you get 2.
- 48:12You get 2. I know.
- 48:13I mean it's hard to ignore the favorite Taj Mahal.
- 48:17Give me Taj Mahal as a pic and then give me Chip Honcho as my
- 48:27other one. So I.
- 48:28I do actually pick now, right? Yes.
- 48:31Finally, your turn. Go ahead on Sally.
- 48:35Give me Napoleon Solo to wire the field.
- 48:38You know who Napoleon. Solo to wire the field.
- 48:41Solo. All right, I got the last pic.
- 48:46I am. I'm going to go.
- 48:53I'm going to go with those Sally.
- 48:55This is perfect for me because I'm not going to bet him.
- 48:57So if he does well, at least I get something in in this little
- 49:01thing that we got. But I'm going to go Sally over
- 49:04the hell we did. The mode your most hated horse
- 49:07in the Derby. You were thinking about the hell
- 49:12we did is of draft pick. I mean, well, look at the board
- 49:16right now. What's left?
- 49:17I mean, I would have gone talking, to be honest with you.
- 49:19I would have gone talking if I was in your spot.
- 49:22What? Would you have gone Napoleon
- 49:24Solo, or who would? Where did that affect you at
- 49:26all? I, I was keen on Napoleon Solo.
- 49:29I didn't think you were going to go with him.
- 49:31So I had to basically decide between the hell we did or
- 49:35Ocelli. And I'm going to bet on the the
- 49:38hell we did. So I'll take Ocelli here, all
- 49:40right. So what I.
- 49:42I think there's a clear drop off after the top five I think you
- 49:46have in the last pick was tough. I could even argue that there's
- 49:51a drop off after the top 4. I.
- 49:54Napoleon solos fringy into that top category to begin with, so.
- 50:02Who are your top 4 but Taj Mahal Iron Honour?
- 50:06Incredible. Actually.
- 50:08Boncho for. Me, I only have a top three.
- 50:10It's honcho honor and incredible.
- 50:13So yeah, I think I take Honcho out and I've got Solo in there.
- 50:20I I will say this race, anything could happen, which is
- 50:24intriguing about it. And like it still gets the
- 50:28height because it's the Preakness.
- 50:29It's kind of cool. Like it's, it's not cool, but
- 50:33it's also intriguing because it's on a totally different
- 50:35track. Like.
- 50:37That that first turn is going to be so different because it's a
- 50:40lot tighter than it is in Pimlico.
- 50:42So that makes it even harder for horses like Pretty Boy Me who's
- 50:48on the outside, like they got to move even quicker or they're
- 50:50going to get stuck. But that turns so quick.
- 50:52So I don't know. I'm excited to watch it.
- 50:56I wish there were more Derby horses in it on the.
- 50:59Record Matt has incredible and Napoleon solo.
- 51:04Nick, you have Iron Honor and no, I'm sorry.
- 51:08No. Matt has incredible and who
- 51:12Ocelli. Ocelli Yeah, Nick.
- 51:15You've got Iron Honor and Napoleon, Napoleon and I've got
- 51:21Mahal and Honcho. Yeah, who's?
- 51:25Our we got to pick a winner, we have to pick a winner.
- 51:30Incredible. Iron Iron Honour is my winner.
- 51:36Yeah, I mean, I, I think it's the clear win pick.
- 51:40I, I think he's the best horse in the field.
- 51:43I if if it wasn't, if I wasn't going to go Iron Honour, I would
- 51:47pick between either Taj Mahal or Napoleon Solo.
- 51:53I just, I just think Iron Honour is a better horse.
- 51:55It and his the way that he's going to run the race, I think
- 51:59it it plays out perfectly. 2 iron honors and Matt is all
- 52:03incredible. And look, Matt picked two horses
- 52:08in the Derby that ran in the Derby and, and we talked about
- 52:13this in detail last, show how we all three agree that the best
- 52:19thing to do for the Triple Crown is to move the races first week
- 52:24of May, 1st week of June, 1st week of July.
- 52:27And the quality of this field would be exponentially better if
- 52:33Ocelli, Incredible and Robusta all finish in the money.
- 52:39Is that good for not moving the Triple Crown races?
- 52:44No, because they. Did it against nobody, a bunch
- 52:47of crap horses. Yeah.
- 52:50That's. If you want anybody else to run.
- 52:54If you want to keep that argument, you go back to last
- 52:56year and say journalism was just fine.
- 53:00Well, the journalism ran all three, and he finished second in
- 53:07two legs and 1st in the other. And Sovereignty didn't even run
- 53:11in one leg. I think what hurts the
- 53:14preakness? More.
- 53:16Right now, and obviously this is the last year that it's going to
- 53:19be this way, is the Belmont not being the full distance.
- 53:23Because if you're when you go back to the regular Belmont
- 53:26distance at a mile and a half, some horses might not skip the
- 53:30Preakness to go to that. They're going to go to the
- 53:32Preakness because they're not sure their horses can run a mile
- 53:34and 1/2. So.
- 53:36I think that'll help next year, but I still think let's just
- 53:40spread it out. It'll be better for horse
- 53:41racing. It creates a buzz and yes,
- 53:44people will be it will be a if you win a Triple Crown, they'll
- 53:47be an asterisk to it, but who cares?
- 53:50This. Is this is like you came in 12th
- 53:52in varsity high school track in the 100 meters and you turn
- 53:55around 2 weeks later to run a bunch of kindergarteners and you
- 53:58whoop their ass like no like you don't get credit for that like.
- 54:02No, no. I.
- 54:04Still say you move it. We want we want better
- 54:06competition, we want better horses.
- 54:08You got to move it well. Look, and let's say that Golden
- 54:12Tempo decided to run, which we all hope that he would.
- 54:19You're telling like, OK, yeah, it's two weeks.
- 54:21So that the two weeks is the hard part.
- 54:23But is it easier to come back in two weeks and beat these horses,
- 54:28or is it easier to come back in a month and beat everybody that
- 54:32was in the Derby? No.
- 54:33It's easier to come back in two weeks and beat these horses.
- 54:36Yeah, but I will agree. With that.
- 54:39I. Will say, I don't if if it was
- 54:45running in this race, I don't think he would win because I
- 54:48don't think the pace like we've been saying on the show, I don't
- 54:51think the pace is going to break down as big as it I was.
- 54:53I was absolutely about to ask you guys, if Golden Tempo was
- 54:56running, would you pick him to win?
- 54:58I where I don't think he'd be the favorite.
- 55:00He would be the favorite because he won the Derby like the
- 55:02betting favorite, but I don't think horse wise he should be
- 55:05the favorite. We're no race.
- 55:09And not as fast as a pace. Yeah, because the horses just
- 55:12aren't as good. Like just because everybody
- 55:14wants the lead, which there's a lot of horses in this field that
- 55:18want the lead, does not mean that the pace is going to be as
- 55:21fast. Now let's we did talk about this
- 55:23last week too. The Derby pace wasn't crazy like
- 55:27at what? It was just around what, 47 at?
- 55:31Yeah, it was 404647 half. He ran one of the slowest Derby
- 55:36of all time of all the winners, right?
- 55:37Yeah. Because wasn't it like an 85
- 55:39buyer? Like it was like the slowest
- 55:41buyer since like the 90s. Yeah, so.
- 55:45I, I think everybody's going to try to get the lead.
- 55:47I just don't think the horses are good enough to really have a
- 55:50fast pace for, to have these deep closers finish.
- 55:52And like, like you all said, it's, it's a close, it's a
- 55:54shorter race. So that's why I really think it,
- 55:59it plays out for a horse, you know, like iron honor, who's
- 56:03going to want to be right there, 3rd, 4th and then when they get
- 56:07in the stretch run can kind of turn it on and, and, and win the
- 56:10race. And I really think there's a
- 56:12chance that if Taj Mahal or Napoleon Solo can get the lead
- 56:16and not be pressed too closely, could figure out a way to wire
- 56:20the field. I think that's the other
- 56:22possibility. Those are my the two ways I
- 56:24think this race is going to go. But.
- 56:27Remember last two weeks ago I'm talking about how much I don't
- 56:29like closers in the Derby and what for?
- 56:32The last five winners in the Derby have been closers, so and.
- 56:37Chad Brown knows what he's doing.
- 56:38I trust Chad Brown in the situation with With Iron Honor.
- 56:42Is. Anyone looks at the weather?
- 56:43What? Do we?
- 56:44Got weather wise here. Are we going to have a fast
- 56:47track or are we going to have rain?
- 56:49I know they were off turf today. So.
- 56:52They had a little bit of rain. Where is this?
- 56:55What's the city? What is the city?
- 56:56I look on weather.com right now, is it Laurel, MD I?
- 57:02See, there's. A Laurel, MD I'm going to hope
- 57:05that Laurel Park is in Laurel, MD. 84 and sunny.
- 57:13No, no precipitation tomorrow. 84 and sunny on Saturday.
- 57:18You're going to have a fast track.
- 57:21In front of 10 people. Yeah, 10 people. 10 people, but
- 57:28there's. A chance it's back there again
- 57:30next year. Like it's not 100% that it's
- 57:32going back to Pimlico. This is all just take it out of
- 57:37that. Well, social loans next year,
- 57:39they'll figure it out. Well, that's why it could.
- 57:42They could potentially push to move it because they see some
- 57:45opportunity with it. Could could they keep it at
- 57:48church? Just do Churchill?
- 57:51I don't. Know what do?
- 57:52You think the crowd like let's just say for argument's sake
- 57:57they do that. We have the Derby 2 weeks ago
- 57:59and all of a sudden turn around and we have the Preakness at
- 58:02Churchill on Saturday. What's that crowd like?
- 58:05What do you charge I? See if church to see.
- 58:11How it goes but. If Churchill is smart, which
- 58:16they wouldn't do this if you're hosting the Preakness, I would
- 58:20scale down the pricing to make it more expensive for the
- 58:23Louisville people. Yeah, like you, you give it back
- 58:26to the Louisville people and be like, hey, you know, we hear
- 58:29you. You don't like, you know, you
- 58:31might not like what we're doing with the Oaks and Derby.
- 58:33But here we're going to give you a, we're going to let you pack
- 58:36this place. We'll bring prices down.
- 58:39This is increased revenue. They would get more money
- 58:42because, I mean, they just have regular racing on this Saturday.
- 58:44You get more money by just bringing it down for the
- 58:47Preakness. Or I would say, I know Churchill
- 58:50doesn't own it, but I'd love to see the Keeneland, it would be
- 58:52awesome. Keeneland would be awesome.
- 58:57I think you have a higher demand for Keeneland.
- 59:00Well in Keeneland just doesn't get races like this every year.
- 59:05They. Get the Breeders, Yeah, the
- 59:06Breeders Cup every Yeah, but. That's not every year.
- 59:10It's they don't. They don't just have it like a
- 59:12yearly race. It's.
- 59:13Often enough, I mean. There are big races to
- 59:15Bluegrass, Which? Is leading, we just.
- 59:17Talked about the bluegrass field is better than this field.
- 59:20Yeah, but I mean, the Bluegrass is a prep for the Derby prep.
- 59:23Prep Triple Crown. In this situation, it might be a
- 59:26better race than what we're watching on Saturday.
- 59:30And look, it'll be interesting to see what the TV numbers are
- 59:32on Saturday too, because I'll be.
- 59:37At Havana Rumba, hopefully the Cuban restaurants like horse
- 59:40racing, hopefully they have it on.
- 59:43I'll be in a wedding up in Chicago so I think the main
- 59:48entrance is at 6:00 central time so write a post So I might get
- 59:53really excited for the main entrance if Incredible comes
- 59:56through 1st. Get that phone on.
- 59:59I should be driving home from from Indy after hopefully not
- 1:00:03coming in last in my golf tournament.
- 1:00:07How much? Speaking of golf, how much did
- 1:00:08you all watch today? I had it on.
- 1:00:11I had it on. In the background I saw Rory was
- 1:00:13absolutely dreadful today. A + 4.
- 1:00:16Bogey's last. 4. What?
- 1:00:19Yeah, bogey. The last. 4 You sure?
- 1:00:21Did yeah, not good. Scotty tied for first Scotty
- 1:00:25doing Scotty things. I saw Pot Jeter, he hadn't been
- 1:00:29doing. That this year, like his
- 1:00:31Thursdays have not been good. I know it's.
- 1:00:32About the fact. That he's tied for the lead on
- 1:00:34Thursday, I think says he probably gonna win this thing,
- 1:00:38yeah. Yeah, I like where he's at.
- 1:00:42Justin Thomas was up there for a while.
- 1:00:44He kind of faded late in his round, finished a -, 1.
- 1:00:48Well, did you see what he did on that par 3?
- 1:00:51I did not. So he was three under and he's
- 1:00:55he's on the back which the back 9 is harder.
- 1:00:58Is that where? You made the long bogey putt.
- 1:01:00Yeah, yeah, I saw the long bogey.
- 1:01:01I didn't know it was Part 3, but yes I saw the.
- 1:01:03Into the gallery, pretty much, yeah.
- 1:01:06Had a terrible chip into the bunker and then a terrible chip
- 1:01:11out and had like a 25 footer for Bogue.
- 1:01:14I mean you're staring triple potentially if you 3 putt from
- 1:01:17there and you're pissed off so there's no more. 25 he yeah, he
- 1:01:21he drilled it and that putt had some heat on it too.
- 1:01:24If that doesn't hit the cloud, that's going to be 7-8.
- 1:01:26Feet high, yeah, but I think a lot of people thought that they
- 1:01:32were going to be 1314 under the winner of this tournament.
- 1:01:37And after round one, leaders are all sitting at three.
- 1:01:42They they cut down all the trees.
- 1:01:44You all before the turn of Blake.
- 1:01:47Why are we cutting like cutting down all the trees?
- 1:01:51The. Birds aren't happy.
- 1:01:52Birds are pissed. Now, one of my dad's hot takes,
- 1:01:56not for the PGA but the US Open. He wants the US Open to be the
- 1:01:59toughest course alive and you want he wants the winner of the
- 1:02:02US Open to be +1 or +2. I want to see what are your guys
- 1:02:06not usually. The case, though that is usually
- 1:02:08the case in the USO Plus. They're usually around 3.
- 1:02:11Or 4 Not lately, some of the courses they've played has been
- 1:02:13a lot easier. If you want to get my dad on a
- 1:02:16rant, just ask him about like Lala Country Club because of the
- 1:02:19marine layer and it was too easy like you know, Pinehurst Rick
- 1:02:23and. Vandershot 62 to start that
- 1:02:25tournament. All right, so next.
- 1:02:26Month, next month, June for the US Open, we're having Mr. Paris
- 1:02:30on as a podcast guest. I'll, I'll, I'll call him in and
- 1:02:34just rant about the US Open. But I wanted to ask the action
- 1:02:38guys like PGA, like because I feel like Valhalla got a lot of
- 1:02:42heat because Valhalla was an easy course, but it always
- 1:02:46produced drama towards the end. Does does the PGA necessarily
- 1:02:51need to be an easy course? Do you want it to be difficult?
- 1:02:53What's your thoughts on that? I don't like guys struggling
- 1:02:59where it's even par 2-3 under, but I also don't like guys
- 1:03:03shooting 20 under. I like a a good mix.
- 1:03:06Like give me my winner at around 910 under in a in a close match
- 1:03:10as well. I don't want some blowout.
- 1:03:12Yeah. So this right now is ideal for
- 1:03:14you. Yes.
- 1:03:15I like, I like this. I like this.
- 1:03:17Challenging, but not impossible. I've listened to a couple of
- 1:03:22like Smiley Kaufman, I've listened to his pod and like
- 1:03:24some other people this week and they were really are expecting
- 1:03:27some people to throw some 62, some 63, some 60 fours out there
- 1:03:32because of the fact that you can it's just drive and see how far
- 1:03:37you can get it down. Then you can figure out a way to
- 1:03:39get it to the green. Like, you're really not
- 1:03:40penalized too much for wayward drives.
- 1:03:44Now, the rough is you could hit in one spot and you can get a
- 1:03:48terrible lie and then you hit in other spots where it really is
- 1:03:51not that bad. But they say for the most part,
- 1:03:53you're really not penalized for wayward drives.
- 1:03:56The defense for this course is their greens, which are
- 1:03:58gigantic. And I don't know if you all saw
- 1:04:02Bryson play early this morning. But we.
- 1:04:07Had like a 15 footer at above like he was a the top of the
- 1:04:13green or like he was past the green a little bit on the fringe
- 1:04:17and he puts that thing downhill and he gave it a little good
- 1:04:20little boost and that all he had to do was just tip it and that
- 1:04:25thing went 30 past 30 past the hole.
- 1:04:29These greens are tough and you and whoever gets the most 2
- 1:04:33putts is probably going to win. I.
- 1:04:36I just once we see Scotty go 3 under on opening day, which
- 1:04:41we've seen him struggle in opening rounds and fight to come
- 1:04:44back and figure out a way to come in second but just not win
- 1:04:46a lot this year. I I don't see anybody beating
- 1:04:50Scotty after he did that today. No, he's in a good spot, good
- 1:04:55spot. I would I I mean, he's got to be
- 1:04:56the obviously the to my knowledge would be the the the
- 1:04:59favorite to win this thing, especially after that three
- 1:05:01under, he said Rory struggled plus four Bryson +6 your boy
- 1:05:07Ryan didn't. Have a party until the last.
- 1:05:09Oh he was +7 going to last. Yeah, he's definitely in danger
- 1:05:13of missing the cut. Your boy Rick.
- 1:05:15Not a bad round, even par for all Rick Fowler coming off with
- 1:05:18a really good tournament from last week last weekend.
- 1:05:22Yep. Four bugs, four birds.
- 1:05:24Missed a couple 7 footers though.
- 1:05:26Had a had a chip that would if it had one more rotation would
- 1:05:30have went in for birdie. So he's right there where he
- 1:05:32could have been 1-2 under. But I think today you take even
- 1:05:35par, you're still in the tournament.
- 1:05:37Everybody's favorite PGA pro Michael Block, also even par on
- 1:05:41the day he's back again. Block guy for.
- 1:05:45The As for the non long knockers baby the.
- 1:05:48Long non long knockers. He don't, he don't hit it very
- 1:05:52far. No.
- 1:05:55What do you guys want to guess Scotty's odds are right now
- 1:05:59after round one to win with 54 holes left?
- 1:06:08210 what you. Got honest with. 110 I said 110
- 1:06:13because you're. Still tied plus plus. 17 I
- 1:06:16meant. I meant +2, yeah, yeah.
- 1:06:18Yeah, yeah. No, I know plus 170.
- 1:06:20The second best odds are Xander Shoffley at Plus 1000.
- 1:06:28Not even anybody that's tied with him.
- 1:06:30No, nobody believes heater. Nobody believes in fighting.
- 1:06:35Min Wu is 16 + 1600, Jon ROM plus 1500 and then Brooks is
- 1:06:40plus 27. How?
- 1:06:44About. How?
- 1:06:46About this dude, did you see Garrick Higgo today?
- 1:06:48We need to talk about it, yeah. God shoots A1 under par on his
- 1:06:53round so he's two shots off the lead.
- 1:06:56Really good round minus the fact he had a 2 stroke penalty before
- 1:07:00he teed off because he was one minute late to the tee time.
- 1:07:04So what? Would have been a three.
- 1:07:05Under he would tell you, he would tell you he wasn't late
- 1:07:09because his tee time was was like 718 and he was there at
- 1:07:137/18/30 and that's still 7/18. Up bro.
- 1:07:17You late on PGA time? You're late.
- 1:07:19You need to get there at 7:15. What it is?
- 1:07:25Posting like that's. What he's saying?
- 1:07:28You sound like some kid that has been late to class four times in
- 1:07:32a row and you're trying to outsmart your teacher and you
- 1:07:35sound like a dumb ass. Like how do you even cut it that
- 1:07:38close to begin with? It's.
- 1:07:39Not even close. You're late 718871830 it's 7/18.
- 1:07:44Hit the ball. I saw he he was obviously on the
- 1:07:46putting green because he walked out of the tee box with a putter
- 1:07:49in his hand. Like bro, just get to your tee
- 1:07:52time and get there a couple minutes early.
- 1:07:54Get you a granola bar and a Gatorade.
- 1:07:56Get you a little little little something that's for some
- 1:07:59energy. Hit the ball on time and let's
- 1:08:01get going, you know? What I'm going to give.
- 1:08:03A she's tied for. The lead, He'd be tied for the
- 1:08:05lead right now. I'm going to give Neil credit
- 1:08:08here. He was not late as a walking
- 1:08:10score for his two rounds at the NCA Women's Golf Regional this
- 1:08:13week. He was there before the tea time
- 1:08:15started. Early early.
- 1:08:20Have you seen Garrett Kigo's quote?
- 1:08:22Because I told you a little bit about it.
- 1:08:24I was there on time. But the rule is if you're one
- 1:08:27second late, you're late. Duh.
- 1:08:30One second later, he's an idiot. So if you think but this he
- 1:08:33continues. So if you think about it, I was
- 1:08:35there on time, if you know what I mean.
- 1:08:38No. Nobody knows what you mean, dumb
- 1:08:39ass and he's. Like, yeah, maybe I should have
- 1:08:42walked over from the driving range a little sooner.
- 1:08:46Yeah, you should have his. Caddy was there his.
- 1:08:49Caddy was there on time. His.
- 1:08:50Caddy's yelling for him. His caddy's yelling for him.
- 1:08:53Why is the caddy not with it first of all?
- 1:08:56Second this. This could be on the caddy.
- 1:08:59Get. Your guy, get your guy, be like
- 1:09:01hey my guy, we need to go now. I guarantee you.
- 1:09:04Why are you going to the T box without him though?
- 1:09:07Don't go. Without, if I'm the caddy, I'm
- 1:09:09at the driving range and be like, brother, we got to go.
- 1:09:12Right now. The caddy's job is like, hey,
- 1:09:14you're in your head, you're hitting your shots, but like,
- 1:09:16bro, we got to go and I'm not leaving without him.
- 1:09:20And he talked about how laid back he is, Like he's just
- 1:09:22chill, like. He looks like a surfer and he's
- 1:09:25from South Africa. Looks like a little surfer dude.
- 1:09:27Like bro, get over it. Like get over yourself.
- 1:09:31Get there on time. You'd be tied for the lead right
- 1:09:34now. Hope he loses by a shot.
- 1:09:35Hope he loses by a shot. Dude.
- 1:09:37He also said like if you don't get disqualified for five more
- 1:09:41minutes, so if I'm going to take a 2 stroke penalty, I could
- 1:09:43have, I could have been four more minutes late and still got
- 1:09:46the same penalty. I bet people on tour hate this
- 1:09:49idiot. I mean, he said that the guys
- 1:09:53that were playing with him were arguing for him, that he
- 1:09:56shouldn't get a penalty, and then he spent 20 more minutes
- 1:09:58after his round trying to get it removed.
- 1:10:00No, I. You do have to give him credit
- 1:10:03though for shooting a three under.
- 1:10:08No, he played grey golf. But also you're an idiot.
- 1:10:12You're an idiot. I hope you lose my stroke.
- 1:10:13You messed. Up the easiest part, and you
- 1:10:18didn't even oversleep, you were just lollygagging around
- 1:10:20hitting. Balls.
- 1:10:21Yeah, you were there. He's on the putty tree.
- 1:10:24Scotty was in a jail cell and made it to his tea time.
- 1:10:28Good point. We have to bring that up.
- 1:10:30If you get arrested and make it to your tea time on time, you've
- 1:10:33got no excuse if you're this guy, Big O.
- 1:10:41So we're all, are we all going Scotty?
- 1:10:43Like that's pretty boring. Like if you're not going Scotty,
- 1:10:45who you? Who you going?
- 1:10:49If I'm not going Scotty, give me Xander to wonder right now.
- 1:10:55Jon ROM. No, he had a whole lot from 100
- 1:11:00just to even get the negative numbers.
- 1:11:04Rambo. JT.
- 1:11:09No, No chance. He's only been to the top 20 I
- 1:11:13think one other time after opening round of the PGA and he
- 1:11:16won. There's a part of me who wants
- 1:11:19to go. Rick, man, he's playing well.
- 1:11:22He ain't winning that, but if I. Feel if I pick him I would jinx
- 1:11:24it. Playing well and winning are two
- 1:11:26different things, but. If you look at the top of the
- 1:11:28leaderboard, there's not a ton of people that scare you.
- 1:11:30If you're Scotty, there really is.
- 1:11:36I mean, Xander doesn't scare me right now the way he's playing.
- 1:11:43And I mean, you might have somebody like you had JJ spawn
- 1:11:47last year that just kind of comes out of nowhere.
- 1:11:50I mean, he he did compete in the players last year, almost won
- 1:11:53it. So he at least was up there.
- 1:11:55I mean none of these guys have really even been in contention
- 1:11:59that are two and three under. Lowry's interesting.
- 1:12:03If Lowry's hanging around come Sunday, well.
- 1:12:06I mean, we saw what he did to close a couple months ago.
- 1:12:11I'm not going to trust him to finish in the in the PGA
- 1:12:14Championship. I don't know.
- 1:12:17I just there'll be some different names after tomorrow
- 1:12:20and the leaderboard will look totally different.
- 1:12:22But right now if I'm Scotty, nobody that's 2 or 300 really
- 1:12:26even scares me at all. Yeah.
- 1:12:27He's in a good spot. Matt, do you want to stick
- 1:12:32around while we talk NFL schedule real briefly?
- 1:12:36Yeah, why not? Like they.
- 1:12:42Were leaked real early today were they not like.
- 1:12:44Supposed to come. Up out at 8:00 where they like,
- 1:12:47how does the NFL allow these to get out like they do or they
- 1:12:49like, hate them? I.
- 1:12:51Hate the fact that they leak like the all right, here's the
- 1:12:53Monday night games, here's the Thursday night games, here's the
- 1:12:56overseas games, Here's the people start to piece it
- 1:12:58together and then more leaks come.
- 1:12:59More like if you're going to do a schedule, at least show and on
- 1:13:02like what? The teams do their social media
- 1:13:04stuff at 7:00 on a Thursday, they just butt it up and let
- 1:13:08them do it at 7:00 on a Thursday.
- 1:13:10Don't leak anything, don't give us any teasers, don't give us
- 1:13:12anything. Like I knew half the Bengal
- 1:13:14schedule 4 was released because of all this other nonsense that
- 1:13:17was going on. Have a If you're going to do a
- 1:13:19schedule release day and a schedule release show, leave it
- 1:13:21at that. The problem?
- 1:13:23Is too many people know what schedules are before the
- 1:13:26official release because all the teams have to have this
- 1:13:29information to get their stuff ready correct?
- 1:13:31Right. Yeah.
- 1:13:32And. Somebody talks to that.
- 1:13:35Yeah, and somebody's going to get it out there and you don't
- 1:13:38know what to trust throughout the day.
- 1:13:41But I think the big one on the Bengals schedule is they're
- 1:13:44finally getting a home game in prime time against the Ravens,
- 1:13:47and it's on New Year's Eve. New Year's Eve night.
- 1:13:52Like, I love going to Bengals games all more than anything.
- 1:13:56Do I want to be at Paycore on New Year's Eve?
- 1:14:01You're going to make out, you can kiss your you're going to
- 1:14:03kiss your seat mate. When the ball drops at midnight
- 1:14:05after the Bengals beat the Ravens, you can turn to old old
- 1:14:09Sandy, 55 year old Sandy that sits next to you and give her a
- 1:14:12little smooch on the on the mouth there for New Year's.
- 1:14:15Let's but Matt, we have one hot chick try to come to our section
- 1:14:18one time and Terry who sits with us has a sign saying this isn't
- 1:14:23your section because so many people get it wrong.
- 1:14:25Had it laminated just because he knows so many people and he's
- 1:14:28like this is not the hot chick walks up and sees the sign and
- 1:14:31turns away immediately. I was like that was a one chance
- 1:14:35bro and you're lame laminated sign just ruined any chance that
- 1:14:41we had. You need to have on the backside
- 1:14:44of the sign unless you're hot so he could flip it over.
- 1:14:46Be like, come on in, come on in. Yeah.
- 1:14:49Terry Terry doesn't think that far.
- 1:14:51Yeah, no, like, yeah, we actually finally get a 1:00
- 1:14:55Sunday game in Baltimore and then they give us the Thursday
- 1:14:59night prime time on New Year's Eve, which really, really sucks,
- 1:15:02but and. You will not be there.
- 1:15:04Is this Is this official? I mean, I don't want to spend my
- 1:15:08New Year's Eve in the car on the way back from Paycore.
- 1:15:12I mean, to me the biggest segue is the Bengals schedule is front
- 1:15:18loaded. It's very, very front loaded.
- 1:15:21Two home games before November, only two home games, four Rd.
- 1:15:27games in the BI play quality to be open with the Buccaneers who
- 1:15:32just barely missed the barely missed the playoffs and lost
- 1:15:35their division on a tiebreaker. I believe.
- 1:15:38Playoff team in Week 2 Steelers playoff team in week 3, Jaguars
- 1:15:42playoff team in week 4. The crappy Dolphins, which would
- 1:15:45be a nice break on the road in week 5 by week and then.
- 1:15:50What? Should be one of the best teams
- 1:15:52in the NFL and the Ravens in Week 6.
- 1:15:54So you're basically facing five playoff teams in your first six
- 1:15:57games, and then after that we get more home games and it gets
- 1:16:01a little bit easier. And so many like they've talked
- 1:16:05about how the Bengals are going to have the third easiest
- 1:16:07schedule and I guess they do, but I look at it, they don't
- 1:16:11look that crazy easy to me it. Looks easy to me.
- 1:16:15Does. It it does.
- 1:16:18I mean, you you talked about that start where you're getting
- 1:16:23three playoff teams out of your first four and the Bucks were
- 1:16:26right there. Now the NFC South sucks.
- 1:16:28So the whoever wins that is I, I, I still think the Bengals
- 1:16:32should beat them with what they have.
- 1:16:33We. Beat the Jaguars last year with
- 1:16:35our awful Jake Browning, his quarterback.
- 1:16:37I mean what? What are?
- 1:16:39The guaranteed wins on the schedule like the Dolphins, the
- 1:16:42Titans. Falcons The.
- 1:16:45Saints. The.
- 1:16:46Panthers I would just loop the. Browns and the Browns are never
- 1:16:49used, but the Browns, Colts, Panthers, I mean, yeah, there's
- 1:16:53a lot of wins to be had out there.
- 1:16:54A lot. When's our first loss?
- 1:17:00You have a schedule in front of you, Matt.
- 1:17:02I don't have your all schedule. Whose whose schedule?
- 1:17:05Do you have? In front of you, I've I've got
- 1:17:07the Patriots schedule in front of me.
- 1:17:10I mean, the first loss is going to come early.
- 1:17:12I mean, the Bengals historically have not gone off the great
- 1:17:16starts. Even the Super Bowl team and,
- 1:17:18and the team that went to the AFC title game, we struggled
- 1:17:21early. Like we've never it's it's is
- 1:17:23it's been a debate of do we play our starters in the preseason?
- 1:17:27And what we never did, we did last year, and we still got off
- 1:17:30to a bad start because the defense sucked.
- 1:17:32So we've never got off the great starts.
- 1:17:34And with that in mind and playing the hardest teams early
- 1:17:39doesn't bode well in my mind for my confidence.
- 1:17:42I think we probably lose. I hate to say it, but probably
- 1:17:45at the Texans with that Texans defense, probably at the Texans
- 1:17:49in Week 2. Yeah, I, I think you beat Tampa
- 1:17:52in the opener at home. Yes and no.
- 1:17:57I, I with that defense that the Texans have coming back, it's
- 1:17:59going to be a tough game in Week 2 on the road.
- 1:18:02If you win that game and you start off 2 and oh, you're,
- 1:18:05you're feeling really good about it.
- 1:18:06Felt. Good at two and oh, last year,
- 1:18:07Nick, that sucks, Yeah. So, well then you lose your QB.
- 1:18:12But I the good news is you don't have to go to Baltimore in prime
- 1:18:17time for the first time in forever.
- 1:18:19We beat him in prime time last year though.
- 1:18:21Yeah, Thanksgiving we did. I don't know if you can, if you
- 1:18:28can finish those first four games, three and one, or even
- 1:18:34even if you're two and two. I think you're feeling pretty
- 1:18:36good if you. Can get those first five games.
- 1:18:38You're 3 and 2 after those first five games.
- 1:18:40Yeah, I'm OK with that. Yeah, yeah.
- 1:18:45Because then that gives you some leeway against Baltimore and
- 1:18:47coming off the I hate. I hate the early, but Week 5
- 1:18:50there should not be anybody. Nobody should be on a bye week
- 1:18:53in Week 5. When there's 18 weeks in a
- 1:18:54season, what do we do? I thought it would be after the
- 1:18:58Madrid game. I really did.
- 1:18:59When they announced that, I thought that would.
- 1:19:01Make the most sense. You know you got to go to Spain
- 1:19:03to play a game. Maybe you get a week off to
- 1:19:05recover. No, Throw you right back in a
- 1:19:07prime time against the Steelers. Oh, you guys don't?
- 1:19:10Have a buy coming off your Europe game?
- 1:19:12No, it feels stupid. By week week 5.
- 1:19:16There should be no by weeks. Week 5.
- 1:19:20What? What's the thoughts on the
- 1:19:21Patriots schedule since we've got you here, It's.
- 1:19:24Going to be a lot harder than last year.
- 1:19:27Oh yeah, you had the easiest schedule in the NFL last year.
- 1:19:31Seven of the 1st 11 are away from home, so that's not ideal,
- 1:19:36but starting on October 22nd, they have eight straight games
- 1:19:39in a prime time window or a national TV window.
- 1:19:42I got that like 425 slot, a national TV window.
- 1:19:47A lot of opportunities. Patriots don't need to get NFL
- 1:19:50Sunday Ticket this year, but I mean, it's going to be tough.
- 1:19:54Open the season against the Seahawks.
- 1:19:57Drop on the banner. Rebash in Seattle.
- 1:20:01But I kind of like it too, because they've got to travel a
- 1:20:03lot this year that they're playing the Lions in Munich.
- 1:20:05They got to go out to the West Coast twice because they're
- 1:20:07playing the Chargers. So I actually don't mind playing
- 1:20:10Seattle Week 1 because you get rid of one of those West Coast
- 1:20:13strips and they're playing on a Wednesday, so they kind of get a
- 1:20:15mini buy right off the start. So it's interesting.
- 1:20:19We got two Thursday night games and then I think it's a couple
- 1:20:26of Sundays and a Monday. Oh.
- 1:20:28Yeah, Wednesday night open. Why I?
- 1:20:30Don't know why when yeah. Like usually it's a Thursday.
- 1:20:33I don't know why you're on Wednesday, but why if you're the
- 1:20:36NFL, to me, Patriots, Lions, that's the reason.
- 1:20:40For it I can't remember. Patriots Lions is a really good
- 1:20:44matchup. Patriots Super Bowl team last
- 1:20:46year, Lions really good team. Potential Super Bowl team.
- 1:20:51Why are you playing that game in Germany?
- 1:20:54Wanted. To go to that game in Detroit.
- 1:20:56Like put your crappy games overseas.
- 1:20:58Give the Germans like, I don't know, give them the Browns
- 1:21:01versus the Cardinals or something.
- 1:21:05Like why are we giving the the Germans and Europeans some of
- 1:21:08our best games? Trying to grow the game now.
- 1:21:12I will say this, I'm I'm a proponent of if you're going
- 1:21:15overseas for games, it needs to be the opposite conference game
- 1:21:21like you had to play somebody from the NFC or the AFC because
- 1:21:23which. You shouldn't is that is the
- 1:21:25case in all but one and I agree with you.
- 1:21:28What makes no sense is the 49ers in Rams Australia.
- 1:21:34Game. Opening in Australia, it's a
- 1:21:36division game, so one team, those two teams were up the top
- 1:21:41of one of the tops of the visit them in the red.
- 1:21:43In the Seahawks, those three teams are battling for the
- 1:21:47division championship. The 49ers are getting screwed.
- 1:21:50I'm sorry, the Rams are getting screwed out of a home game.
- 1:21:52The 49ers get to play the Rams at home, but the Rams don't get
- 1:21:55to play the 49ers at home. How do you have a division game
- 1:21:59in Australia? You can't have tiebreakers
- 1:22:04relying on an international game.
- 1:22:06That's just bad for business. All.
- 1:22:08Division games, If you're playing each other twice, you
- 1:22:10need to have a home at home. You shouldn't play the same
- 1:22:13conference, but if you do, the Rams should be playing the Lions
- 1:22:17or something. Like don't play a division game
- 1:22:19overseas. That just makes no sense.
- 1:22:22You're just screwing one team out of a home game and it seems
- 1:22:25pretty. Simple too, honestly.
- 1:22:27That makes sense. Where it's NFC versus AFC.
- 1:22:31Yes, seems. Pretty simple.
- 1:22:34The NFL can't figure that out. We're sending 2 two teams from
- 1:22:39California to Australia, a division game.
- 1:22:48So. This Taco Bell worker Josh
- 1:22:50Cedith give. Me, give me the rod down Taco.
- 1:22:55Bell employee in Florida is accused of shooting at 3
- 1:22:58customers this week, shooting at them after one of them attempted
- 1:23:03to fill a water cup with soda. Police say three women entered a
- 1:23:09Taco Bell in West Palm Beach. 1 began filling up their cup at
- 1:23:13the soda fountain, which led to a vertical, a verbal altercation
- 1:23:19and eventually shots fired. Is everybody OK?
- 1:23:24First like. Force not.
- 1:23:26Making fun of the whole thing. Is everybody all right?
- 1:23:28Yes, everybody's OK. One fell to the ground after
- 1:23:34being shot, another was grazed. The other one ran outside the
- 1:23:40the Taco Bell worker obviously was arrested.
- 1:23:47Employee of the Month. I mean, don't be.
- 1:23:54You order water, you better get water.
- 1:23:55Don't be trying to steal. That's stealing.
- 1:23:58That's that. First of all, that's theft.
- 1:23:59Whoever did it should also be arrested.
- 1:24:01You shoot at somebody should be arrested.
- 1:24:03But if you're doing the water cup and you're trying to get
- 1:24:05yourself a Pepsi, you should be arrested as well.
- 1:24:09I mean, have you in your lifetime, have you ever done
- 1:24:11something like that? Run the water cup, try to get
- 1:24:14the soda, get a little Sprite, try to make it look like water
- 1:24:16before. I'm sure I've got a little
- 1:24:18taste. Yeah, we'll test at least.
- 1:24:22Look, has anybody got that? Anybody that has never done
- 1:24:25that? I think.
- 1:24:27Most think most everybody's probably done that a time or
- 1:24:29two, but. I don't think I've ever just
- 1:24:32straight up filled up the whole thing blatantly, but maybe got a
- 1:24:36little little taste. Also in 2026, why are we still
- 1:24:41doing self-serve soft drinks? Is that are you saying because
- 1:24:45of COVID or what's the reason for not having it?
- 1:24:48Cost like a lot of waste. Yeah, that soda.
- 1:24:52Cost them nothing. The cost is all in the cup.
- 1:24:55I don't know what the soda cost, but that.
- 1:24:57Cup cost more than the soda, I promise you.
- 1:25:00Oh, I know the cup card. Probably cost more than the
- 1:25:01soda, but there's a lot of waste going on there.
- 1:25:04But can we talk about how passionate this dude is about
- 1:25:06his job? Like doesn't get.
- 1:25:09Protected to finish did someone? Credit for that.
- 1:25:11Somebody's coming on your home turf and stealing your soft
- 1:25:13drink got to you got to protect it.
- 1:25:16I don't know if I'd do it with a gun.
- 1:25:17That's. A little extreme, the.
- 1:25:23The thought process was was there try to stop this nonsense.
- 1:25:31Passionate Taco Bell worker. Oh, he's passionate.
- 1:25:34Probably went a little too far. I would.
- 1:25:36Say a little too far. Yeah, slightly.
- 1:25:39And if you're that the lady who just filled up your water cup
- 1:25:43with a little bit of big red and this dude's coming at you hard,
- 1:25:48you might chill out like this ain't that big enough.
- 1:25:50And then it escalated and the gun eventually came out.
- 1:25:56Yeah, how? Hey talking to our friends, how
- 1:26:00did you get shot? I was putting starry into water
- 1:26:03cup the Taco Bell. Yeah, I mean, I didn't see the
- 1:26:09guy. Behind the register.
- 1:26:10But he he came at me pretty hard.
- 1:26:14I did see McDonald's as phasing out the self-serve soft drinks.
- 1:26:17I don't know the reason but I just don't like like we don't
- 1:26:22need self self-serve soft drinks anymore.
- 1:26:26Let them fill your cup up for you.
- 1:26:29Well, the rave like 5-10 years ago was those machines where you
- 1:26:33could add flavors to all the different sodas, cola.
- 1:26:36Remix like what? Happened to all.
- 1:26:38The happiness machines out the window.
- 1:26:40Well, now they're called dirty sodas or something, I don't
- 1:26:42know. And they're like a dirty
- 1:26:43something. Rather, you put vanilla cream
- 1:26:45crap into it. I know.
- 1:26:47It was Mormons. That was like taking self-serve
- 1:26:49to the next level that. Was like and now.
- 1:26:51You're saying we're going the other way?
- 1:26:54Yeah, yeah. Why?
- 1:26:58Soda probably went up. It's all getting stuck in the
- 1:27:04straight of Hormuz. We can't get the sodas through.
- 1:27:07Can't get gas and we can't get soda.
- 1:27:10The cost of everything's going up an.
- 1:27:12Extra large soda. Now it costs $4.00 instead of
- 1:27:15199. We're getting there.
- 1:27:18We'll be letting. People go back for 4th and 5th
- 1:27:20drinks of soda. It didn't happen.
- 1:27:24Then they're dumping it out in a little like grate and all that.
- 1:27:26It's it's all messy and gross and I don't know.
- 1:27:29We don't need self-serve sodas. Because the the employees aren't
- 1:27:33doing that, but I guess you're not touching it.
- 1:27:35So I don't know. I kind of trust doing my own
- 1:27:38better than somebody else doing it.
- 1:27:40But also I don't want to get my get out of my car and go inside
- 1:27:44either so. When's the last time you stepped
- 1:27:47foot in a fast food restaurant? Been a long time.
- 1:27:51Long time. So yeah, it doesn't affect me at
- 1:27:55all. You order on the app, you tell
- 1:27:57them your code, you get your food and you go.
- 1:27:59And if you're not ordering on the app, you're stupid.
- 1:28:02You're doing it wrong. The the only time I step in a
- 1:28:06fast food restaurant and I feel like you all can appreciate this
- 1:28:09is a McDonald's on campus because we're walking from the
- 1:28:11office to go pick it up and just, but it's pre-ordered,
- 1:28:14pre-ordered on the app and I just walk in and grab it.
- 1:28:17Yeah, that, that makes sense. What's?
- 1:28:19Your McDonald's order. Snack wraps have put me into a
- 1:28:25blender. I love the snack wrap.
- 1:28:31See I usually just do the value meal in even though now it's up
- 1:28:34to 6 bucks but you get the double cheese, the four nugs,
- 1:28:37the small fry and a small drink I had.
- 1:28:39That one last night. That was my dinner last night.
- 1:28:41Is that the move? No, you're you're just a regular
- 1:28:43cheeseburger. I'm a 2 double cheese and a
- 1:28:46coke. You've moved.
- 1:28:48You've grown up to double cheese.
- 1:28:50Used used to be the the number 2.
- 1:28:52Used to be the number two. Yeah.
- 1:28:54That's when the number 2, that's when the number 2 was the best
- 1:28:57value on the menu. Get a a large fry, 2
- 1:29:00cheeseburgers and a large coke for like 6 bucks.
- 1:29:03Well now the number 2 is like 12 bucks and like I don't want that
- 1:29:06or 10 bucks. It's his.
- 1:29:07It's his wedding day, dude gets a number 2 the morning or the
- 1:29:12afternoon of his wedding day. Cheese and ketchup only and it's
- 1:29:16got everything on it and he's just like, I'm not eating I.
- 1:29:19Hate mustard? I'm not.
- 1:29:20Eating this I can deal. With taking Pickles and onions
- 1:29:22off. But mustard it is just soaks in
- 1:29:24the bread and it smells like shit.
- 1:29:26I hate, I hate mustard. I hate mustard.
- 1:29:30See. I'm a mustard guy.
- 1:29:31You would be a mustard guy. You look like a mustard guy.
- 1:29:35You look like a mustard guy. We got to wrap this up, y'all.
- 1:29:38I got to get this thing posted and I got to get in the car at
- 1:29:427:00 AM so. Good luck, don't come and live
- 1:29:45driving up. To Indy.
- 1:29:47Come in last and all the one armed people.
- 1:29:51Dude, that's just messed up. Yeah, I'm.
- 1:29:53Just saying you did. You did no.
- 1:29:57The last year I came home from it and you all asked me, he's
- 1:30:00like, did you get beat by anyone?
- 1:30:02Armed people? And I said yeah, I got beat by
- 1:30:05all the one armed people, every single one of them, and all the
- 1:30:10one legged people and all the short people and all the people.
- 1:30:14I lost all the people. Was that after we played golf
- 1:30:17that week before out of out of your course?
- 1:30:23It might have been. It was, I think it was close to
- 1:30:25it. We need to play again.
- 1:30:27Yeah, I smoked that lady's back patio on, too.
- 1:30:34Oh yeah? Well, that's right.
- 1:30:36I'll play with you that remember.
- 1:30:37Yeah, You smoked the deck. Yeah.
- 1:30:40And she came. Out.
- 1:30:42Oh, sorry. That's all good.
- 1:30:44Nothing broke, thank God all. Right.
- 1:30:49Well, I guess can we do this on Monday to recap the the PGA in
- 1:30:53the Preakness? Track meet on Monday you got.
- 1:30:56To be kidding me last. One so last one of the year,
- 1:30:58last one of the year. Do.
- 1:31:00Later in the week, later in the week, and then.
- 1:31:02Bowling on Tuesday? Still no.
- 1:31:04We're taking a summer, summer break for bowling.
- 1:31:06We'll we'll start that in the fall.
- 1:31:07Well, we'll figure it out. We'll have a show beginning of
- 1:31:10next week sometime to break down the PGA breakdown, the
- 1:31:13Preakness. We'll talk about my tournament.
- 1:31:17We'll be. Talking about iron honours,
- 1:31:18triumphant win. Or incredible you.
- 1:31:22Misspoke with incredible. OK.
- 1:31:26Incredible. But 456, Matt for the 66.
- 1:31:29Neil. Matt, thanks for joining us.
- 1:31:31It's three shows in a row. Look, you're just like a regular
- 1:31:33now. Recurring guests on the Four. 10
- 1:31:35Knick remember to follow at high differential on all social rate
- 1:31:40and review on the on whatever podcast you listen.
- 1:31:43We appreciate y'all. We'll talk to you then.
- 1:31:49Give it to me. You.
- 1:31:53Have a long show. Yeah.
- 1:31:56Like we didn't even start, the print is still an hour.
- 1:32:00I mean, you went horse by horse. I.
- 1:32:03Stopped it, I didn't. Do all this research today for
- 1:32:06nothing. Dude, I'm impressed.
- 1:32:09Dude, would you show me the color-coded Excel spreadsheet?
- 1:32:13I was like damn, I didn't know Neil had that ability.
- 1:32:16Any.