Latest / FDD Morning Brief / The fire that barely ceased | feat. Miad Maleki

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The fire that barely ceased | feat. Miad Maleki · FDD Morning Brief

• 0:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: Good morning, it's Monday.
• 0:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: July 13th, the multi front board in the middle east is now 1,010 days old.
• 0:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host Jonathan Schanzer.
• 0:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back to the FTD morning brief.
• 0:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I took a few weeks in headed west, special thanks to the folks that kept this program going.
• 0:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: While I went hiking, biking, and horseback riding, and fly fishing, not going to lie.
• 0:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: was nice to take a bit of time off from the tough material that I typically digest every day.
• 0:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I got to level with you.
• 0:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: There was no way to escape the headlines.
• 0:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: And there's no way to escape this bottom line.
• 0:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: We're back to full on war again, as if we have a really trusted that tenuous ceasefire to hold.
• 0:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: I know I didn't.
• 0:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: I called it the ceasefire war.
• 0:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: Anyway, I suppose the good news is that we are no longer pretending that this cessation of hostilities was ever something we could
• 1:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, again, a window to finish the job that President Trump began.
• 1:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: He can do it with or without the Israelis either way that window is open.
• 1:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: And if you ask me, that is a good thing.
• 1:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now that the Iranian regime is declared the state of Hormuz closed again, I have to ask, where the hell is the rest of the world?
• 1:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Last I checked, the state of Hormuz is in the international waterway and under the rules-based world-order international waterways are to remain open for maritime traffic.
• 1:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: What are the repercussions for the Islamic Republic's unhinged aggression?
• 1:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: Also, last I checked, the blind bombing of nation states, you know, like Jordan and the UAE and Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, well that's a war crime and the Islamic Republic has been engaging in war crimes now for months with barely a peat from the international community.
• 1:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: Look, I get that nobody ever really wants to go to war and I get that the Islamic Republic looks downright scary with all those drones and ballistic missiles and the ugly rhetoric, but if the
• 2:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: then it's time to speak with one voice and to isolate the Islamic Republic politically and diplomatically.
• 2:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: And if that doesn't work, well, then it's time for like-minded states to come together with a military purpose to keep the straight open.
• 2:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: Sure, I get the Europeans don't exactly love Donald Trump right now.
• 2:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Fine.
• 2:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: But do they love seeing 20% of the world's oil cut off by a psychotic Jihadi regime?
• 2:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: I didn't think so.
• 2:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: So quick, crying about Trump, Europe, and get it together.
• 2:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: the rules-based world order you claim to love so much?
• 2:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, if you don't step up and defend it, I fear it might unravel even more than it already has.
• 2:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, for your headlines, headline one sad news on Sunday morning, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina passed away following a brief illness after returning from a trip to Ukraine.
• 2:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: Lots of rumors were flying around about
• 3:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: Senator Graham was a principled statement, a statement, and a true patriot.
• 3:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: I met him back in 1995 when he was new to Congress, and I was a mere 20 something.
• 3:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I remember thinking then that he was a force of nature for America, for our allies, for the world that he wanted to shape.
• 3:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: Rest in peace, Senator Lindsey Graham.
• 3:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: headline, too, Iraqi Prime Minister, Ali Alzadi is doing Washington today for high level talks with the Trump, excuse me, administration, oil and gas deals are expected to be announced.
• 3:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: But, me, I'm way more interested in the progress that they're making against those
• 3:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: popular mobilization forces, PMF, hash the shabby, whatever you want to call them, those are the Iran-backed Shi'aig militias that undermine the sovereignty of the state of Iraq.
• 3:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: There has been some progress of late, but if we were to truly weaken the regime in Tehran, we must weaken those proxies.
• 4:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: So let's see what you got, fellas.
• 4:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm cheering for you.
• 4:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: had lined three, channel 12 in Israel, released the contents of a handwritten letter, penned in 2022 by none other than Yahia Sinwar, Sinwar of course was the masquer mind of the October 7th attacks that launched this war that is now over a thousand days old.
• 4:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: Sinwar drew out very clearly the plans he had to invade Israel, and to take hostages he was true was word.
• 4:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: The crazy thing to me is that a letter like this should theoretically
• 4:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: serve as proof as to who is the aggressor in this war starting on October 7 and that it might change some minds out there.
• 4:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I'm not holding my breath.
• 4:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: People don't seem to change their minds too often when it comes to this conflict even when the truth is staring them.
• 4:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: in the face and headline for the world cup is still on television and I'm still not watching it seriously people are you?
• 4:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean it's not as bad as Eurovision which is completely idiotic which we've talked about on this program but FIFA is a bunch of corrupt dirt bags that enabled cuts are to bribe its way to hosting the world cup back in 2022 and then an estimated 400 to 500 construction workers
• 5:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: died in the extreme heat as they scrambled to build stadiums that now sit empty in Qatar.
• 5:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: It was disgusting them.
• 5:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's disgusting now, but it's true to form for Qatar.
• 5:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: Never forgive that regime, never forget what they do.
• 5:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: And of course, I'm talking here about Hamas and al-Qaeda and ISIS and the Taliban and all the bad actors that these dirt bags support.
• 5:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: All right, enough hot air for me, enough news headlines time to get down to business with FDG's very own.
• 5:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Miyad Malaki, Miyad is an Iranian-American who served our country in the Air Force.
• 5:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: Before going on to work at the Treasury Department, where he worked overtime to lead the economic warfare campaign against the Islamic Republic, he and I work closely together informally on Hamas sanctions early on in the war after October 7th.
• 5:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: But now he's out, and he's doing great work, identifying,
• 6:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: the assets of the regime that we need to hit next.
• 6:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: So let's talk about this, shall we?
• 6:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let's bring him on to the show.
• 6:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back to the FTD morning brief, beyond Malikki.
• 6:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for having me, sir.
• 6:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, good to have you.
• 6:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let's start with some basics.
• 6:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: How is the regime holding up politically
• 6:28
  [SPEAKER_02]: Well, I think it's, if there's, we know doubts, we can say that politically economically, materially, they're in the state of chaos.
• 6:35
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, the really good at making sure that's not the message that the world is getting.
• 6:40
  [SPEAKER_02]: They're really good at propaganda.
• 6:44
  [SPEAKER_02]: influence operations, you know, it's very interesting that I learned that the Rani regime dispense 20 times of 20 times more on propaganda that is spent on its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including all the embassies.
• 6:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: So 20 times larger budget of
• 7:10
  [SPEAKER_02]: al-Mayadeen, all these kind of news outlets that we know that are active across the globe to really show a different picture of what's going on inside Iran.
• 7:20
  [SPEAKER_02]: The fact is politically developed layers and layers of the political leadership, they're not they can't really make that centralized type decision making, they don't have that anymore.
• 7:31
  [SPEAKER_02]: It's very clear that sometimes Minister of Foreign Affairs not talking to the RGC, they're not coordinated with each other well.
• 7:39
  [SPEAKER_02]: It could be propaganda, it could be real, but what's really clear is they're having a dilemma.
• 7:46
  [SPEAKER_02]: They have to wait.
• 7:48
  [SPEAKER_02]: So long, 100 and what 50 days to have a funeral for their Supreme Leader, I mean, that's a pretty significant indication of what they're dealing with domestically.
• 8:00
  [SPEAKER_02]: Especially if you look at it from a religious point of view in Shiaid Islam, waiting that many days, that many weeks, that many months.
• 8:08
  [SPEAKER_02]: to have a burial ceremony for the Velaya Tefak E for their supreme leader, that's very significant.
• 8:16
  [SPEAKER_02]: And then when he comes to the RGC, listen, like John, you've been following RGC, changing command and different command commanders for years.
• 8:26
  [SPEAKER_02]: Look, I mean, the folks that were hearing about we're seeing on TV, we don't even know.
• 8:29
  [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, they're really getting to the down of the bottom of the barrel with his RGC commanders.
• 8:34
  [SPEAKER_02]: So it is a state of chaos in whatever angle you look at right now, domestically.
• 8:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: I tend to agree.
• 8:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: And now let's talk about the money.
• 8:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about what's happening economically.
• 8:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: None of this can be good for the regime right now.
• 8:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they've just gotten their defense industrial base hammered.
• 8:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: It costs a lot to wage war.
• 8:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: And the resources you just get a sense, they've been dwindling, and that's on top of the sanctions that you personally help to implement and that pressure is only growing, right?
• 9:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, so how do you look at what's happening economically right now inside the regime?
• 9:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: absolutely.
• 9:11
  [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, before we get into details, let me just set the stage here.
• 9:15
  [SPEAKER_02]: You know, President Trump came to the office after four years of President Biden implementing a different complete different policy approach to Iran.
• 9:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: The sanctions weren't really being enforced or weren't enforced at all.
• 9:28
  [SPEAKER_02]: The most important sanctions, you know, the oil sanctions, better chemical sanctions.
• 9:32
  [SPEAKER_02]: So, for four years, the Iran regime was able to build up his economy
• 9:38
  [SPEAKER_02]: load a lot of or tankers with oil and let them sit in Asian market.
• 9:44
  [SPEAKER_02]: In fact, you can say that Iranians were preparing for the return of President Trump economically.
• 9:50
  [SPEAKER_02]: And President Trump is being the office for not so long.
• 9:53
  [SPEAKER_02]: He's been not even half of his term.
• 9:56
  [SPEAKER_02]: And as you know, very well, given you background in the Treasury Department, John, sanctions take some time to show their effect.
• 10:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: And let's not judge, as far as when we look at the sanctions how effective they've been, it's been only a year and some, you know, you're in a half, maybe two years now.
• 10:10
  [SPEAKER_02]: And it takes some time, however, the blockade that we had in place, as you said, the state of war, the damage to the domestic production, is really accelerated the effect of sanctions.
• 10:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, looking at the economic numbers, you know, the before the war started the had an inflation rate of somewhere between 70 percent, 60 to 70 percent on the official numbers.
• 10:37
  [SPEAKER_02]: I don't really buy that.
• 10:38
  [SPEAKER_02]: I will let's go with somewhere in between 50-60% inflation.
• 10:41
  [SPEAKER_02]: That's pretty.
• 10:42
  [SPEAKER_02]: That's a collapse economy.
• 10:44
  [SPEAKER_02]: And now you're looking at it today post war.
• 10:49
  [SPEAKER_02]: We don't really have numbers that you can rely on, but I think food inflation is absolutely somewhere between
• 10:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: The overall inflation rate you can probably get somewhere between 60% to 70% now the economy has been somehow something has been closed because of the Civil War and that really suppresses the demand in the market.
• 11:15
  [SPEAKER_02]: That means the inflation rate has been suppressed.
• 11:19
  [SPEAKER_02]: It's been managed, but because of the set of war.
• 11:21
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now, as with the open up the economy, because they have to, then you're going to see the real effect of war in the domestic economy.
• 11:30
  [SPEAKER_02]: So that's coming in slowly.
• 11:32
  [SPEAKER_02]: And you can start seeing some of his outlets in Iran, even expressed in despite all their
• 11:40
  [SPEAKER_02]: a depression that exists in a flow of information, you can still see some reports coming out telling you about the dire situation of the economy side you run.
• 11:50
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now the oil pectoral chemical exports, we had this oil waver, the technical term for it is general license that the Office of Foreign Access Control issued.
• 11:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: That license didn't really materialize into a lot of exports for Iran for reasons that we all know that the war economy is not ready to trust Iran's or doesn't it doesn't really trust the state of the play with Iran and they wouldn't go into Iran's or a market under a 60 day license.
• 12:15
  [SPEAKER_02]: So that didn't really help.
• 12:17
  [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe there were some tea party refineries, small refineries in China that purchased more oil than the general license.
• 12:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: That doesn't seem to be the case, but if that's the case, that wouldn't still kind of change things for Iran economically as much given the fact that they just haven't been able to really repatriate or move their revenue that generates from oil back to the country.
• 12:43
  [SPEAKER_02]: So I think that economically, you can look at the numbers and companies conclusion that the economy has collapsed basically.
• 12:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, it does look like the economies in the toilet.
• 12:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: One thing that I would just say is, and I was talking to a foreign diplomat about this a few weeks ago, here in Washington, that the regime is going to have a harder time, economically, politically, maybe even diplomatically internationally.
• 13:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: once we reach a moment of peace.
• 13:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that may be why they keep waging this war.
• 13:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: They are not likely prepared for whatever stability brings because as soon as things begin to calm down, that's when you have to start to reckon with your collapsed economy.
• 13:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's when you have to start to reckon.
• 13:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: with your halted exports, that's when you have to reckon with the isolation that they're going to fear, I mean, or feel rather after bombing all of their neighbors, their neighbors are not going to be looking to help them.
• 13:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: So you get a sense of I think what they're bracing for right now, but I think you're right that economically they've already reached a point of quasi collapse.
• 13:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: What you want to do is obviously see this thing really start to take
• 13:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, but okay.
• 13:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: So let me ask you.
• 14:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is what you used to do for a living.
• 14:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: You're doing it now.
• 14:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: Actually outside of government, how do we make things worse for the regime?
• 14:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, how can we actually bring about that collapse, which I think you rightly know, we've already reached from like a numbers perspective.
• 14:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: but it has not trickled down into reality yet.
• 14:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: It has not gripped the regime.
• 14:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: So if what you're trying to do is to bring about the bankruptcy of this regime and to harm it in ways that would make it harder for this regime to operate, which I think is your goal, my goal, FDD's goal at the end of the day, what do we need to do to hasten this process?
• 14:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Right.
• 14:39
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think John, you know, you also spend years working on this issue, you know, that there are near terms, effect of sanctions we want to see.
• 14:49
  [SPEAKER_02]: And there's a longer term effect we want to see.
• 14:52
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think the near term.
• 14:54
  [SPEAKER_02]: We want to make sure we know we enforce our sanctions, economic sanctions, not just by imposing new sanctions or enforcement of existing sanctions, but diplomatically, how can we work with our allies and partners, including those in the region who, as you said, are way more on our side right now than they ever been, to help with us to put pressure on the Iranian regime, how can we work with them?
• 15:20
  [SPEAKER_02]: to increase the effect of the sanctions.
• 15:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: And also, let's not lose sight of China.
• 15:26
  [SPEAKER_02]: China has been a financial lifeline for the Iranian regime for many years.
• 15:33
  [SPEAKER_02]: However, they're affected by the closed closure of the threat of hormones, probably more than any other economies.
• 15:39
  [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you can put India and Pakistan in Japan, a South Korea next to them, but the Chinese are getting a huge hit from the closed-offest threat of hormones economically.
• 15:48
  [SPEAKER_02]: We should probably leverage that.
• 15:50
  [SPEAKER_02]: What can we do diplomatically with the Chinese?
• 15:53
  [SPEAKER_02]: With the private sector, if the government is not really working with us as closely as we want, I think there are also opportunities to bring in the diplomatic pressure and engagement to increase the effect of sanctions on Iran right now, given the fact that the global economies matter to Iran right now.
• 16:14
  [SPEAKER_02]: So that's one thing that I would add here
• 16:17
  [SPEAKER_02]: I'm wondering what our former colleagues in the state department and, you know, a treasure department are doing as far as diplomatic engagement with our partners and allies and others including China to increase the effect of sanctions.
• 16:31
  [SPEAKER_02]: But.
• 16:32
  [SPEAKER_02]: But I think one thing that we haven't really seen happening is a more post-general license when the general license was revoked.
• 16:45
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think we have a few days.
• 16:46
  [SPEAKER_02]: What we haven't seen is really any signs or indications that the White House is engaging in those diplomatic pressure or engagements with others.
• 16:57
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think I'm hoping to see that more, but under sanctions front, we have there's no shortage of targets.
• 17:03
  [SPEAKER_02]: There are enforcement of sanctions can be very effective, especially now.
• 17:07
  [SPEAKER_02]: Iran showed again that they're not interested in opening off their economy.
• 17:13
  [SPEAKER_02]: As you said, they well and are articulated very well.
• 17:16
  [SPEAKER_02]: The war scene you can do to the Iranian regime right now is send them back.
• 17:21
  [SPEAKER_02]: to govern the country in a state of peace.
• 17:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: That is the most punishing thing that you can do with this regime and let and get a taste of this state of economy after the war.
• 17:31
  [SPEAKER_02]: That haven't had the chance to get a taste of it.
• 17:34
  [SPEAKER_02]: So then if we kind of, there's a, you know, we in this engaged military with Iran and we go back to only a maximum pressure campaign type of approach.
• 17:48
  [SPEAKER_02]: Um, what we're going to see the pressure continue and John, I think what we all should think about is how can we prepare for the next round of protests that you rock that is coming.
• 17:59
  [SPEAKER_02]: Know that every few years it's been happening and I think we should all get ready for what policies by U.S. government and our allies today can help us and help Iranian people to get their government back when they're back in the streets and when they need our support what I want.
• 18:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: I want to see the Israelis provide close air support.
• 18:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I don't mean with F-35s or F-16s, just drones.
• 18:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, I mean, just basically helping the people survive the onslaught from the besiege, something along those lines, I think would be
• 18:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: an immense boost for the people of Iran because they will have to face guns, right?
• 18:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that's what this regime will do.
• 18:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: They are brutal.
• 18:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I hope that the Israelis, I don't know, maybe Azerbaijan does it, maybe I don't know who else, but that would be my hope.
• 18:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: But let me ask you just so we don't lose the thread on the economics.
• 18:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, what about carguerland and that oil and infrastructure?
• 19:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: Why do you think Trump is still holding off?
• 19:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is this because he's trying to preserve oil revenues for the United States?
• 19:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: Or is he trying to preserve the assets that the Iranian people should rightly inherit?
• 19:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is it a combination of both?
• 19:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, my question really consistently has been if we're trying to bring down this regime, don't we need to just remove this lifeline permanently
• 19:28
  [SPEAKER_02]: That's a great question, and I think you're right about a few things that you hinted at, or you laid out here, I think President Trump, in a personal level, he's not really on board with a type of a strike that could damage oil infrastructure.
• 19:43
  [SPEAKER_02]: He's been very open about that, that he's not interested in doing that.
• 19:48
  [SPEAKER_02]: And I think the reason for it is because you're on your second point, I think he's seeing two things here one, this is the oil and revenue that Iranian people would need post-Islamic republic and Islamic regime and second, it's a global oil economy that President Trump does not really want to target by taking out Clark Island.
• 20:12
  [SPEAKER_02]: What I would say is it could be possible that President Trump also wants to keep that Clark Island as a point of leverage.
• 20:23
  [SPEAKER_02]: President Trump wants to maintain Clark Island as an operating
• 20:28
  [SPEAKER_02]: the most important aspect of Iran's economy.
• 20:32
  [SPEAKER_02]: Just a reminder to you to your listeners, 90% of Iran's oil goes through hot highland.
• 20:37
  [SPEAKER_02]: And that's about arguably, you know, some are between 60% to 70% of Iran's economy that goes through hot highland.
• 20:44
  [SPEAKER_02]: So if you want to have leverage with Iranian regime, if you bomb it, then this leverage is gone.
• 20:50
  [SPEAKER_02]: There's nothing left.
• 20:51
  [SPEAKER_02]: But if you take it over,
• 20:53
  [SPEAKER_02]: then you're going to have a significant leverage that no president has ever had with Iran.
• 21:00
  [SPEAKER_02]: And I think it could be possible that President Trump is holding onto that option to eventually take over the current island and take over Iran's economy through that island and put pressure on either kind of set this stage where the collapse of the Iranian regime, which I think it probably starts with Clark Island
• 21:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: For another deal.
• 21:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I got to say putting boots in the ground does not sound like something that Trump wants to do, but I do get a sense that that would be significant leverage, but bombing it, I think you're right.
• 21:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: And personally, I'd like to see all of this handed over to the Iranian people and that they should inherit this without, I mean, it will require a lot of rebuilding nonetheless because this is sort of decrepit infrastructure, but removing it entirely, I think probably doesn't make a lot of sense.
• 21:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, my last question for you is let's just say it's a challenging one you talked about we talked about this before before we have done live this morning.
• 22:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: You've given a lot of senior briefings in the past.
• 22:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: You've talked to a lot of senior policy makers in closed or sations when you were at the Treasury.
• 22:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let's just say for the sake of argument, you have five minutes with the present of the United States who definitely appears to be at some sort of acrossroads with this war.
• 22:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't want to continue fighting, but he appears to understand now that he has to.
• 22:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: What would you tell him right now, if you had the opportunity, this is the way forward for the work?
• 22:40
  [SPEAKER_02]: Well, I mean, my expertise, John, as you know, is very narrow that, you know, if I get a chance to go for a president Trump and brief him, I would definitely either just brief him on that issue or I would take notes from others and be prepared to get into more broader issues.
• 22:56
  [SPEAKER_02]: But what I would tell him as a president is that, you know, the most powerful
• 23:01
  [SPEAKER_02]: approach policy approach is to make the Iranian people not the regime the beneficiary of the pressure strategy that President Trump has pursued and effectively implemented.
• 23:14
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think a very comprehensive economic campaign means cutting off every single dollar that Felicity R.H.G.C.
• 23:23
  [SPEAKER_02]: and the Supreme Leaders Financial Network.
• 23:25
  [SPEAKER_02]: and you can achieve that with a full enforcement of oil sanctions with no carve out secondary sanctions that make Chinese banks and refineries choose between Tehran and the U.S. financial system and a coordinated crackdown on ghost tanker fleets, the front companies, those that are involved in laundering Iranian regimes, revenue,
• 23:47
  [SPEAKER_02]: And most importantly, provide engaged diplomatically with not just governments that have historically given Iranian regime lifeline in the situations like today, but also the private sector.
• 24:01
  [SPEAKER_02]: You know, the sanctions have created this way, huge black market right now.
• 24:05
  [SPEAKER_02]: cut off a lot of these bad actors from formal financial system and it's been very effective.
• 24:10
  [SPEAKER_02]: However, there's an opportunity to turn that corrupt and ineffective black market.
• 24:18
  [SPEAKER_02]: bring them back to the formal market by engaging in diplomatic and policy discussions with the private sector.
• 24:25
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think those are kind of options that President Trump has.
• 24:28
  [SPEAKER_02]: Some of these type of refiningers, for example, after the British sanctioned, they now buy nothing by the Iranian oil.
• 24:34
  [SPEAKER_02]: You can go to them, talk to them, bring them back to the format formal sector by getting them off the sanctions list and have them commit to not buying Iranian oil.
• 24:45
  [SPEAKER_02]: And then you start chipping off this support network from the Iranian regime.
• 24:50
  [SPEAKER_02]: The second point that I would bring with probably bring up a President Trump is the Iranian people.
• 24:56
  [SPEAKER_02]: And nothing would be more effective than empowering the Iranian people today.
• 25:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: He pairing for the next round of protests that I have no doubts is gonna come again during President Trump's term.
• 25:10
  [SPEAKER_02]: As we've seen historically, it's been coming every year, every two years, we have these rounds of protests when Iranian people show that they're done with this regime.
• 25:18
  [SPEAKER_02]: And every time when it happens, we all start thinking, what can we do now?
• 25:22
  [SPEAKER_02]: Let's start thinking about it today.
• 25:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: What are the internet capabilities, satellite access capabilities that could be given to the Iranian people so they can talk to each other?
• 25:32
  [SPEAKER_02]: When there is a next round of protests in Iranian regime shot sound the internet.
• 25:36
  [SPEAKER_02]: How can we empower them financially when these situations happen?
• 25:41
  [SPEAKER_02]: What can we pay employees of all companies and national Iranian tanker company when time comes that they're ready to step away from the Iranian regime?
• 25:54
  [SPEAKER_02]: I think we should be preparing for that day and that day is coming and it's better to start that preparation today as opposed to waiting for when it actually happens.
• 26:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's good advice.
• 26:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to recommend that we put you in front of the big man at over there at 1600 Pennsylvania.
• 26:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: Um, I hope you'll, you know, allow me to suggest you.
• 26:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: Anyway, we'll leave it there.
• 26:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: I want to thank you, me, I'd like to keep for returning to join us yet again at the FD morning brief.
• 26:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for having me.
• 26:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, always good to have our top folks featured on this show.
• 26:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: You can read more of me odds work and that of our other experts at fdd.org.
• 26:34
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• 26:42
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• 26:49
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• 26:50
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• 26:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, I'm back in the saddle people, and I'm fired up to be back.
• 26:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I look forward to seeing you on Wednesday morning or whenever you decide to listen as always.
• 27:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you for joining.
• 27:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm Jonathan Chanzer, signing off for FDD.