Latest / Financial Survival Network / $96 Oil and Market Updates -- Eric Hadik #5897

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$96 Oil and Market Updates -- Eric Hadik #5897 · Financial Survival Network

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  So I think from a timing perspective, we're getting into a time where the
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  market is right for a top. My extreme upside targets that I've been in
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  has been focused for the last three to six months, was that maybe crude
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  could get back to the ninety six dollar level, but I didn't expect to
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  go any higher than that, and that, like I said, is a
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  real extreme. If the perfect combination of factor, there's work to take hold.
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  But my main upside objective right now is right around the eighty to ninety
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  dollars level. You're listening to Carrie Let's Financial Survival Network where you get valuable
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  And welcome you are listening to the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
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  Kerry Lets. It's nine thirteen twenty three and Well market's kind of been
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  zigzagging a little bit. What's going to happen next? Let's talk with our
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  good friend Eric Adick. You find him at Well Inside with two eyes I
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  N S I I D E track dot com and Eric, it's great to
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  have you back on Hey, first, what's your main U r L For
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  those of you out there who want to check out Eric's workout, Well,
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  thanks for having me back, Cherry, and the main U r L is
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  Insights track Trading dot Com. So, like you said inside with that extra
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  I in the middle, I N S I I D E Track Trading dot
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  Com. All right, and the link to that's in the show notes on
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  for your free newsletter. If you got any questions for Eric or myself,
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  we really want to hear from you, shoot me an email k L at
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  Kerrelts dot com. So, Eric, when we last spoke, you weren't
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  very optimistic about the stock indexes. Anything changed, Well, it all depends
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  on what perspective you're talking about. I think that in general, stocks are
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  still going through a multi year topping process. So from that perspective, I'm
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  not overly bullish. Coming into this year. We had a host of on
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  three to six months, six to twelve month cycles that were bottoming out in
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  the beginning of the year. And completing what I thought would be the first
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  significant sell off and equities. We got that in in January and kind of
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  reinforced it in the months that followed. Since then, we've seen a lot
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  of two sided trading in many of the indexities. I think one of the
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  time frames that I was warning listeners and readers about was from late July into
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  mid to late August, you had kind of a negative cycle when you could
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  see all some selling. We got that pretty much on schedule, and now
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  you're in a period where some of the indexes are poised to rally to newer
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  highs on the year, whereas others are showing continuing weakness for lack of a
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  better term, and it's not weakness as if it's about to fall apart,
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  but on a relative basis. I think one of the really interesting indexes,
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  and if you look at the RUSS two thousand over the last couple of years,
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  and particularly all this rebound from June and or September of the last year,
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  when it's at a double bottom, that index was able to recover enough
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  to neutralize some of its negative trends, but not turn them up. And
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  at the same time you have some long term averages and other indicators rolling over
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  and starting to turn negative on an even broader perspective, And so that index
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  gives a much different perspective than some of you were stronger indexes like the NAZZAC
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  one hundred. But I think that early twenty twenty four is when we enter
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  another period where there's a higher higher probability for a new sell off in stock.
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  So that's kind of my time horizon and quantifying bullush or bearish on the
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  stocks. It comes down to which timeframe you're talking about. Within there.
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  Right now, I think that stocks could see a little more upside. I
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  think you're going to see a couple of the sell offs between now and year
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  end, but equally so some intervening rallies until we get to that early twenty
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  twenty four time frames. So we are two sided action than anything. Okay,
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  And one thing we've seen is interest rates the FED has continued to hike.
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  Is that trend going to continue? I think that be not only my
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  work, but the general consensus is showing that there it's time for a assault
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  in that now. Whether they're going to drop them as aggressively in twenty twenty
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  four, as many of the traders and economists for we're expecting and we're projecting
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  that I think is starting to come into question that Whereas you know, there
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  was talk of I think four or five rate cuts next year, now let's
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  talk of maybe three, and so you get that perception that drives the market
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  and future perception. So whether they raise rates again at any point in the
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  near future, which I think is becoming less and less likely, Traders are
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  already looking ahead to what they expect for the first part of twenty twenty four.
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  And I think, once again I probably sound like a broken record with
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  this, but that four year cycle in bonds and notes has been just uncanny
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  in its accuracy, and it helped pinpoint the July twenty twenty peak in bonds
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  and notes, which was a corresponding low in interest rates. Prior to that,
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  it had set a previous peak in July of twenty sixteen, and prior
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  to that in July August of twenty twelve. And I think that that same
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  cycle, along with many corroborating cycles, is saying to look for a rebound
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  peak in bonds and notes in around July of twenty twenty four. That would
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  mean a corresponding low after a dip in interest rates at that same time.
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  So from not only that cycle that's just something that I use as a backdrop,
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  but from a lot of other timing into caters I have. My work
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  still shows that we see the initial upswinging interest rates into the current time frame.
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  Then you see kind of a plateau or a topping phase. Then you
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  should get a brief dip in rates in first quarter and second quarter next year.
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  But after that I think things will get even more interesting heading into late
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  twenty twenty four, that into twenty twenty five. Okay, so you know
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  one thing that interest rates housing very interest rates sensitive. And yet over the
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  past couple of months we've seen the home builders, the big publicly traded home
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  builders like Lenard Poulty, Toll Brothers, h hit all time highs during that
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  time. Now they're about five to ten percent off their peak. Can we
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  glean anything from that? I think you can clean that they're doing things more
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  efficiently and generating profits more. And you go back to the beginning of COVID
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  and the different things that have shifted with with home building. For starting with
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  the escalation in we're all resources prices, when lumber quadrupled and contempled in price
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  and other resources, is just shot through the roof and you had libor shortage
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  if I A lot of these home builders go about their their construction a lot
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  more prudently, and even though there was a burgeoning demand for homes, they're
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  not building lear as quickly or as haphazardly as we've done in past cycles.
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  Yes, that's helping the bottom line, but it's also extending this overly elevated
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  price in homes because the supply is not there. And anyone who previously had
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  thought about selling a home and either upbreeding or downsizing, they can't stand the
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  thought of trading in at three percent mortgage and having to take out a six
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  percent mortgage, so they're just not so the supply that normally would be there
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  in a normal real estate cycle is not there. So it's artificially driving up
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  the price of homes and you could out in the foreseeable future, get one
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  of these a little bit of a domino effect where you get rate starts come
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  down a little bit, you get more people selling homes, you get the
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  builders willing to you will commit a little bit more, and then you get
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  prices start to come down, and that creates its own reality moving forward.
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  So the stocks of those home builders I think is a reflection of some things
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  that have gone on the last year or two, But I don't know if
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  they have a lot of future prognosticating effects in those in those elevated prices of
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  our stock. All right, we can see that there're definitely other things besides
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  interest rates that dictate home demand and supply. And the fact that nobody wants
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  to get out of their low rate mortgages to go downsize and wind up paying
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  more per month than they were before is definitely one of those trends. All
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  right, So Oil, you were calling for higher prices. We're now at
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  the highs of twenty twenty three. Do we go higher? Do we break
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  a hundred? Well, I've been all along looking at the time frame that
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  we're now coming into. For the last three months, I just kept repeatedly
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  saying, pruned and the products should head higher into middle of September, and
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  that's when ill some of my initial cycles would begin to peak. But from
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  an even broader perspective, you've got a fairly consistent five year cycle, and
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  that's also the midpoint of the broader ten year cycle. All of which are
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  I'll arguing for a peak here in the September October time frame. So I
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  think from a timing perspective, we're getting into a time where the market is
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  right for a top. My extreme upside targets that I've been in has been
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  focused for the last three to sex months, was that maybe CREWDE could get
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  back to the ninety six dollars level, but I didn't expect to go any
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  higher than that, and that, like I said, is a real extreme.
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  If the perfect combination of factor there's works, you take hold. But
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  my main upside objective right now is right around the eight to ninety dollars level,
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  where I think that crew should run into a lot of resistance. Okay,
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  so when you talk about CREWDE, we also often look at that gas
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  which has been trading low lower since since earlier in the year when it was
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  you know, our last summer when it was at ten dollars per mcf.
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  Yeah, natural bs certainly crashed in price as our supply continued to increase,
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  and it's been in what I believe is the bottoming phase. In early June,
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  it's set an initial bottom and has held that ever since. That was
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  really when a lot of multi month and one of the two year cycles were
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  anticipating a bottom. But there's been a very fairly consistent three months well swing
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  type of cycle in natural gas, going from highs to highs, that highs
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  to lows, and that initially bottomed in early June, but then it's all
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  it showed that we should see a secondary low and early September and we're just
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  coming through that. So I think that natural gas is building a base,
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  but it's still there's still is some time before key indicators who'd be able to
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  start to turn more positives and produce act more of the sustained and substantial rally.
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  So I think we're still in this basing period and there's a couple of
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  key factors I need to see kick in before I think that natural basket really
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  sustained an uplove. What about the gold precious kennels and gold is still I
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  know when we talked last time, I was well, first of all,
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  we were kind of reviewing the discussion from the previous time that gold really had
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  a very significant cycle top in early May and I didn't expect it to see
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  another comparable high until early November. And in between when we talked back in
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  journeistic it's gold still had some more downside potential before its foot I'll begin a
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  more significant rally. And for four or five months I just kept my readers
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  focused on the middle half of August as the time when the next cycle low
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  in gold should take hold, and that is pretty much what we've seen.
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  Both the medals and the mining shares all headed steadily lower from the early May
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  cycle highs into August seventeenth to the twenty first, which was the ideal time
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  for a bottom. Based on monthly, weekly daily cycles, there's a very
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  consistent twenty three weeks cycle in gold in the XU index, and once again
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  those markets bottom lockstep with that cycle in the latter part of August. So
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  we're in the weeks following that cycle low starting to build a little bit of
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  a higher base, higher plateau. And I have said all along that I
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  thought the bullish phase, moderately bullish phase for gold would not arrive until the
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  second half of September, first half of October, and that, like I
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  said, it's just the beginning of when some of these timing indicators I follow
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  would start to turn to the upside. My focus or My warning has been
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  all long that very often gold will see the majority of its move in just
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  the final weeks prior to a cycle high. So if I'm looking for a
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  cycle high in early November, that means really the weeks leading into that through
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  October are the time when you often would see a stronger rally. So that
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  kind of fits with these indicators starting to turn positive or having the potential turn
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  positive in second half of September, more likely in the first half of October,
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  and so I think we could get a nice intermediate rally there. But
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  gold is still going to have some headwinds working against it until we get past
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  early twenty twenty four. Okay, and finally, what about the dollar.
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  The dollar is one of those headwinds that I think is on keeping gold intact.
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  And I believe that the dollars set an initial bottom this year, but
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  that that was just the first sell off that we will see in the dollar
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  throughout this year. I've been devoting a decent amount of my monthly newsletter and
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  the opening comments and analysis to this thinking that I have that we have entered
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  a new forty year cycles of currency wars, and I explained that in more
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  detail in my publications, but that one of the key things within that long
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  term cycle is a transition for the dollar, and I think that we are
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  just in the very early stages of that. And my intermediate work is showing
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  that the dollar should rebound from mid July when three to six month cycles bottomed
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  into January of twenty twenty four. But at that point, I'm looking for
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  a secondary, a lower high in the dollar, and then things start to
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  get a little more negative for the dollar in the one of the two years
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  that follow that timeframe, and that's when I think you'll also see more of
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  an opportunity for gold and for other anti dollar type of vehicles. So I
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  think the dollar is in this phase of tracing out a long time major top.
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  But again that's we're talking multi year type of cycles and trends, so
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  it doesn't all happen at once. It doesn't mean that the dollar suddenly collapses
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  in six or twelve months. It means that it's going through a longer term
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  transition phase. And I've laid out a lot of the reasons, fundamental and
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  technical, but you certainly sought another affirmation. Another duck lining up in a
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  row in late August when the Bricks Nations had their annual meeting and announced that
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  they were inviting Saudi Arabia and actually five other countries to join BRICKS. And
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  these are all countries that want to get out from under the US dollar supremacy
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  and being forced to use US dollar for a lot of their trade. And
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  it's a it's a slow, steady process, but it's it's looking to break
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  that hegemony of the US dollar. And over the coming years, I think
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  you're going to see steady movement in that direction, and there will be key
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  times within that when when the dollar suffers some reactive sell offs as this topping
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  process continues to unfold. All right, So, if I remember correctly,
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  you were kind of called the election based on the strength of the dollar last
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  time. The dollar usually goes higher during democratic presidencies and lower during Republican presidencies.
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  Do you think this is maybe predictive here at this point? I don't
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  see that. I don't see as clear of an indication. Yeah, last
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  time, in the six to eight months heading into the election, it was
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  looking very clear that the dollars should bottom and begin a new unmulti year rally,
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  which, yes, as I described, has been very consistent in democratic
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  administrations. With the dollar going through this topping process, it's going to have
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  as much of a determining factor on whether whether we see several years all of
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  two sided type of action as that whole transition unfolds, or whether we see
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  a really sharp sell off. Looking into your say, twenty twenty five,
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  which would be the first year of a new administration, it certainly could have
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  that that precursor nuanced to it, and I'll be looking at that more closely
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  coming into next year, But right now I don't see strong enough evidence to
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  go one way or the other in that. Okay, interesting, Interesting,
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  and any other markets we should be looking at where you're seeing trends shift or
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  perhaps exacerbate, I don't know that there's any that really stand out right now.
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  You know. I've been looking at one particular grain and the wheat market
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  to set up bottom in here, but that could take some time before it
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  starts to build a base. I've been looking at cryptos, bitcoin and etc.
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  As having a negative cycle from the nit July when intermediate cycles peaked,
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  stretching out into November when I anticipate the next significant bottom. But in both
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  of those cases that means you've got the potential for a lot of two sided
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  trading one to two weeks trends in each direction, so that needs to be
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  kind of focused on in a more microscopic perspective as post or broad perspectives.
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  All right, so interesting times ahead. Sounds like there's going to be a
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  lot of volatility and a lot of uncertainty in the world. Yeah. I
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  think there's definitely the potential for a couple black swan events over the next year
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  or so, especially based on how some of the markets you're lining up,
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  But you can't really plan for them per se, other than just making sure
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  you're sharing to get strong money management principles and following the trends because usually those
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  future events chests of shadows before. All right, well, hey appreciate you
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  coming on and sharing your review of the future with us. Can you just
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  tell us again your site where we find you, how we subscribe. Yes,
• 26:08
  you can go to your inside track Trading dot com, inside me the
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  extra I in the middle, so it's I N S I I D E
• 26:18
  track Trading dot Com and Nick Fine owns many archives, reports, newsletters,
• 26:26
  samples, and also information on subscription packages. All right, excellent, Hey,
• 26:32
  if you got a question for Eric or myself, please just send me
• 26:37
  an email k l at krylts dot com. We'll get you an answer as
• 26:42
  quick as we can. And while you're at it, you'll find the link
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  in the show notes to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Just
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  click it, take your right to eric site, and while you're there,
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  sign up for your free newsletter. Eric. Always a pleasure. Great to
• 26:59
  have you back on. We're going to be watching your forecast closely and see
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  what happens next. Thanks for having me back. Carry, thanks for listening
• 27:07
  to Carry Lens's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For
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