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Can Nvidia continue to dominate Big Tech's earnings season? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 2: Kicking off hour two of the Financial Exchange. Chuck, Paul
1:15
and Tucker with in we got markets kind of mixed today.
1:19
The Dow's up two hundred and one points, about half
1:21
a percent, and when we look at it, it's really
1:25
a story of I mean, quite honestly, basically like a
1:30
couple of stocks that are moving the entire index. Yesterday,
1:33
we saw it in the other direction, where who's the
1:35
insurer that reported yesterday? Health United Health that was down
1:39
what like eight percent or so? Today, United Health back
1:42
up about three percent. Goldman Sachs rallying a couple percentage
1:45
points as well, on the back of their good earnings
1:47
yesterday and continued good earnings from other banks today. So
1:52
that's kind of driving things most strongly on the Dow.
1:55
With the S and P five hundred up three points
1:57
right now, with the Nasdaq still kind of struggling, we
2:00
get some traction after yesterday's losses. The Nasdaq is down
2:02
twenty nine points at the moment. Ten year US Treasury
2:06
down three basis points, back at four percent. Even it's
2:10
about a point one percent reversal over the course of
2:13
the week so far. When we take a look at
2:15
oil prices continuing to hover just right in that low
2:19
seventy range, down thirty cents a barrel to seventy dollars
2:22
and twenty eight cents, triple a national average for gas
2:24
prices really boring three twenty and four tenths of ascent.
2:29
That's up one tenth of ascent from yesterday. Just not
2:32
a whole lot of movement on gas prices as we
2:34
sit here today, and we've got gold up eight dollars
2:38
and ninety cents an ounce to twenty six eighty seven
2:42
and eighty cents yesterday. A little bit of a surprise.
2:46
But ASML, who is the world's basically only maker of
2:52
the machines that help make cutting edge semiconductors, accidentally reported
2:58
its earnings and guidance. I say accidentally, because you don't
3:03
really accidentally do that. They said it was a technical
3:06
error that caused them to be released today early. But
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I mean, who's just sitting there with access to that
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button to push, Like, what are we really doing here?
3:14
Release you know, like release the earnings? I don't know anyways,
3:19
ASML down sixteen percent yesterday. And the big thing that
3:25
they are seeing here they're bookings, so not the actual
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revenue that they have, but bookings for future periods came
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in at two point six billion euros for the quarter.
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That was a miss of over fifty percent of their
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estimate of five point three nine billion euros that they
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were expected to report in gross bookings. Reading between the lines,
3:46
it sounds like what's going on is that their AI
3:50
chip business or AI chip manufacturer manufacturing business. I don't
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know if that's the right way to phrase it, but
3:58
sure that seems to be okay. They're just basically seeing
4:03
orders on more boring semiconductor machines kind of dry up
4:08
right now, and by kind of I mean almost completely.
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Speaker 3: That was my takeaway. As well as two factors at play,
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so they are in conjunction. Taiwan Semiconductor is the manufacturer
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of the semiconductor chicks that Nvidia designs that we talk
4:24
about so frequently because of Nvidia's meteoric rise that are
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used in most cutting edge AI So they have a
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significant relationship ASML with Taiwan's Semiconductor because the machine that
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ASML makes is critical in the manufacturing process. That is
4:40
a significant amount of sales. But for the more standardized
4:45
chips that are used in my laptop in front of
4:47
me and Chucks as well for Intel and some others
4:51
out there, the demand on that side of things has
4:53
waned for their type of machinery. The other piece that
4:58
stood out to me and sort of looking through the
4:59
story was their exposure to China and their sales there.
5:04
There's been a lot of geopolitical concerns there. The Dutch
5:07
government in fact, has taken over ASML's export controls to China,
5:12
so basically the Dutch government is shipping out any machinery
5:15
to China, not ASML, the government is doing it themselves.
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In June of this past year, forty nine percent of
5:23
its sales ASML's was coming from China. More recently, the
5:27
CFO indicated that twenty percent of their total revenue for
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next year will come from China. So I think those
5:33
two factors, Intel's perhaps lesser demand and Samsung and others
5:38
out there as well as taking a hit on their
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sales to China, that led to really significantly lower bookings,
5:44
and as a result of that, you saw a ripple
5:47
effect yesterday in the market where ASML was down sixteen percent.
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They're off another five percent today, I believe in early trading.
5:55
And you also saw the Nvidia shares pulling back about
5:58
four and a half percent.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that in looking at this, you know,
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the piece that's interesting to me is is quite honestly
6:09
like the Taiwan Semiconductor piece, because just trying to figure
6:14
out their business going forward, they're building this huge new
6:17
fab in Arizona, which is not going to be, to
6:20
the best of my knowledge, for you know, cutting edge
6:23
AI chips and stuff like that. It's going to be
6:25
for more run of the mill stuff that they that
6:28
they produce. And so they've got this huge investment that
6:31
they're making there is you know, being funded by you know,
6:33
a bunch of Chips Act money. And it's not to
6:35
say that this is a bad idea, because I've said
6:38
before on this show, and I'm going to be logically
6:40
consistent with this, even if it doesn't make the most
6:45
economic sense. You still have to spend the money to
6:48
build excess capacity for computer chips here and semi conductors
6:51
just because you need to have a domestic supply of those.
6:56
But you look at this and you say, Okay, are
6:59
we kind of head into this you know, rollover in
7:03
the cycle for you know, traditional semiconductors, non AI related semis.
7:10
And is that factory, which I believe is scheduled to
7:12
open in like twenty twenty six, I think, is when
7:14
the earliest production is going to be coming from there? Man,
7:18
is this like heading right into a period where it's like, hey,
7:21
guess what, there's no demand for your stuff, so sit
7:24
around and make nothing. And I'm not saying that that's
7:27
bad because I still think you need the stuff here
7:30
the ability to make it if necessary, but could be
7:35
kind of an inauspicious debut for that Arizona plant, is
7:38
all I'm getting out, certainly.
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Speaker 3: And this industry is really cyclical and it evolves really quickly,
7:43
and that's the concerning thing. When you're spending billions of
7:46
dollars to create a factory, and as the technology is
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evolving at a very rapid rate, you just hope that
7:53
they don't sort of miss miss the bus. But I'm
7:55
in agreement with you it's important to have some sort
7:58
of presence on the manufacturer side of things.
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Speaker 2: So this does take us to a discussion about in
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video as well, because look, you got big tech earnings
8:06
all lined up for next week. We got Netflix this week.
8:09
Does Netflix even like fall into big tech or is
8:11
it Isn't Netflix kind of really big media?
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Speaker 3: I mean they're communication services in terms of the S
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and P, they're not really.
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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know that you can just call
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a company that streams movies a tech company anymore like
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there are media companies just that's how it's deed, like
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that'd be called. Imagine if thirty years ago we called
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cable companies tech companies just because it's not over the air.
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They're not a tech company. What are they inventing? Now?
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Speaker 3: Well, the confusing thing on the S and P five
8:41
hundred sectors is that Meta and Google get kind of
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grouped in that communication services sector, which obviously they have
8:48
a ton of communication in terms of their advertising platform,
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but we also talk about them as tech companies. I
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agree with you Netflix, Other than the algorithms that they use,
8:58
that's technology, but it's delivering media to you know, viewers.
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It's not the same type of tech.
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Speaker 2: No, And I remember that communication services category. I remember
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the SMP used to be I think it was nine
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sectors and then they expanded to eleven back in like
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the mid twenty tens to try to like streamline things,
9:16
and it's like, okay, so you've got Netflix at and
9:18
T and Google in the same category. Yeah, it's like,
9:22
thanks for streamlining things. I appreciate that. Anyways, you've got
9:26
Netflix reporting earnings this week. They're the only company that
9:29
that I think you can you know, lump in is
9:31
even kind of big tech because next week is just
9:35
like the monster for big tech earnings. Monday's quiet Tuesday
9:41
at Tuesday Uber is not big enough. Sorry, this is
9:45
I'm looking at next month. This is I clicked on
9:47
the wrong thing next week. Okay, here we go. So
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next week, when you look at your big tech companies,
9:54
you do on Tuesday have Microsoft and Alphabet. Between the
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two of them, you got five trillion dollars in market
10:00
cap reporting. Should be nice and juicy. Then on Wednesday
10:04
you've got Meta and Tesla get another you know, two
10:08
plus trillion in market cap reporting. And then on Thursday
10:11
you've got Apple and Amazon another five trillion dollar market
10:14
cap reporting day. I mean again, if you can't get
10:17
excited for this stuff, it's probably twenty three I listening
10:20
to the wrong show.
10:21
Speaker 3: Twenty five percent of the s and P five hundred
10:23
right there, because then Video is not it's more than that.
10:25
Speaker 2: It's probably close to like thirty thirty five. Yeah, yeah,
10:27
between all that. So in Vidio is later in the
10:31
earning season. They're scheduled for November nineteenth, so we still
10:34
have another month to wait until we get to them.
10:37
And so in Vidia has been in an interesting position
10:40
twice this year where in both Q one and Q
10:43
two earnings the market was kind of sagging under the
10:45
weight of not lackluster earnings, but just you know, a
10:48
market that had run up, and then as earnings were reported,
10:52
the market started pulling back because the earnings were good,
10:54
but not good enough to justify further rallies. And in
10:57
Vidio has been in this position where it's come in
10:59
like three weeks later, and both of those quarters have
11:01
been like kind of like the kool aid man, just
11:03
like kicking down the wall, like hey, I'm here, and
11:06
like the market rallies immediately after. You wonder how long
11:10
that can continue because in Video's growth is slowing. It's
11:13
still a hugely profitable company in the most exciting area
11:17
of the market, but at some point you wonder where
11:21
that earnings growth slows or if the story breaks just
11:23
for a quarter, do we see a different reaction.
11:27
Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to be this quarter necessarily,
11:29
because all indications from their CEOs that their new chip,
11:33
the Blackwell Chip, there's been significant to man outpacing what
11:36
they anticipated. So I feel as if total speculation that
11:40
that earnings report, if they can have upward guidance revisions
11:44
for future quarters, the market will really enjoy that. But
11:48
to your point, their numbers are slowing. It seems even
11:52
just crazy to say slowing when you're doing, you know,
11:54
ninety seven percent revenue increases year over year. So yeah,
11:57
it's pretty easy to slow down when you're almost bling
12:00
every single quarter. But fascinating piece here and just how
12:03
much these other companies are spending on the technology and
12:07
the capax side of things. With a projected two hundred
12:10
and thirty one billion by the end of the year
12:12
between Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google forty nine percent higher
12:17
than twenty twenty three. That's all their capital expensures. I'm
12:20
not saying all the going to AI, but a big
12:23
bulk of that going to spending in this space.
12:25
Speaker 2: Take a quick break here when we return, we've got
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trivia and then let's talk a little bit about bank
12:33
earnings and maybe oil as well.
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15:36
Speaker 2: Three big takeaways from bank earnings This from the Wall
15:39
Street Journal. Consumers are still spending, and basically Bank of
15:43
America is saying, yeah, you're kind of looking at kind
15:45
of a three tier economy right now. Where most of
15:47
the growth is still coming from high income households. Middle
15:51
income households are just kind of cautious and selective, and
15:54
you've got lower income households that are really feeling, you know,
15:57
some pressure right now, which I think matches with what
15:59
we've seen in the broader economic data. Number two, borrowing
16:04
up for credit cards kind of mixed for mortgages and
16:07
people piling more onto their credit cards matches with the data.
16:10
Mortgage demand has been slow according to the weekly data
16:13
that we get, so confirmation of what we're seeing. And
16:17
also households businesses just not really chasing yields anymore the
16:22
way that they used to. You know, it's something rather sorry.
16:28
Banks not kind of chasing customers the way that they
16:31
used to. So I think that, you know, you're not
16:33
seeing people shopping around for rates anymore, and now they've
16:35
started falling. Sure you still see it on the margin,
16:38
but not quite as much. And overall, I think it
16:41
paints the picture of an economy that still is okay
16:45
right now, doesn't have anything that's pointing towards imminent recession.
16:49
But we've got to keep on, you know, a pretty
16:51
close watch. I think still through you know, at least
16:55
the start of the winter. And this is something where
16:58
we've kind of just been pushing this out like four
17:00
to six weeks because the data keeps, you know, getting better,
17:03
but not good enough to really say, hey, we're all clear.
17:07
Last year at this time we got this huge inflection
17:10
up in the data where we were like, yup, like
17:13
that's it. You can call off any questions about a recession. Here,
17:17
it's not quite as definitive, and so I think it's
17:20
much more Yeah, we look good for the next month
17:23
or two, but we need to keep watching. I think
17:25
that's kind of the message that I'm getting from the data,
17:28
both from companies and you know, the broader stuff that
17:30
we're seeing.
17:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's whether you look at the labor market or
17:34
you look at inflation, it's it's all sort of a
17:37
wait and see, continue to monitor things. Overall, it is
17:42
helpful to see that the consumer, which has been really
17:45
the fulcrum for keeping the economy moving over the course
17:49
of the last year plus, is in a healthy spot
17:51
and is resilient. And you know that they're reporting reasonable
17:56
numbers on some of these bank earnings.
17:57
Speaker 2: Here, well we're oil prices, good sign for consumers, but
18:02
bad sign for the global economy. That's the title from
18:05
market Watch, and basically what it's getting at is, look,
18:08
the reason why you're seeing oil price is taking lower,
18:11
aside from you know, some brief flare ups here and
18:13
there as tensions rise and fall in the Middle East,
18:17
is because global demand is kind of poopy right now.
18:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, China is really the main culprit behind that. They've
18:27
seen a significant lesser demand than they did in twenty
18:31
twenty three. They accounted for about seventy percent of the
18:35
gains in oil demand in twenty twenty three and this
18:38
year just projected at twenty percent. In this piece, they
18:42
go on to make the point that the stimulus efforts
18:44
by China have not been enough to reflare up any
18:48
type of oil demand for the second largest economy in
18:52
the world. It's it's difficult with energy stories, Chuck. It
18:56
seems like just two weeks ago we were covering how
18:59
energy pre is were running up significantly. There was all
19:01
the concerns in the Middle East. Now more recently it's
19:04
come out that Israel likely won't launch a counter attack,
19:07
so that has sort of put markets on the oil side.
19:10
Speaker 2: And that they won't launch a counter attack. It's just
19:14
it's they've on the they've on the hated that it
19:16
won't be targeted and the energy nuclear and energy facilities.
19:21
And we'll see if that's actually the case. You know,
19:24
there's there is something we said for not telling your
19:27
enemies exactly what you're going to do. Uh again, not
19:30
that I'm wishing for something larger. Let's let's keep this
19:33
in context here, quick break. Here, we've got the trivia answer. Next.
19:38
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Speaker 4: Trivia question today was which came first, the peep or
20:07
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Speaker 2: Paul, Let's talk about where's this piece from. I didn't
20:52
look on the back market watch, how the US economy
20:55
became so hostile to parents and who benefits? The subtitle
20:59
is the financial stream felt my families is the result
21:02
of policy decisions, not individual choices. So what policy decisions
21:06
does it say are hostile to parents in the United States?
21:11
Speaker 3: Basically that the United States government has underinvested in childcare
21:16
development at the government level and has left many families
21:21
in a kind of do it yourself sort of set
21:24
up and subject to the heavy costs that come with daycare,
21:29
after school programs, et cetera. That have put in this piece,
21:33
they claim family is in a tougher spot due to
21:38
lack of investment in childcare.
21:40
Speaker 2: Your thoughts on that as a thesis.
21:44
Speaker 3: The idea of universal childcare is something that probably, to
21:50
their point, if we had wanted to do it, it would
21:52
have been better to start investing it years ago. But
21:55
ultimately I come down that it is more of a
22:02
you have a choice to start a family, and with
22:04
parenting comes the need to sort of make those expenses
22:08
for your child's care. I just don't know if the
22:11
government running is the best way to approach it necessarily.
22:15
But I don't have a fix for the situation at all.
22:18
Speaker 2: No. I mean, look, there are places where you do
22:21
have you know, heavily subsidized or in many cases, you know,
22:24
completely free childcare until kids reach you know, schooling age.
22:29
You can look at you know, large parts of Europe
22:31
and things along those lines, and they have those those
22:35
systems in place. Ultimately, I think that when we talk
22:41
about this, you know, again, I think that we have
22:44
to remember that the cost varies pretty greatly throughout the
22:48
country for childcare. Our show here is based in the northeast.
22:52
I know, we've got stations on the West coast now
22:55
that are picking us up. And look, you're probably in
22:58
the same boat on the West coast where childcare are high.
23:02
I mean it's it's something where if you look at
23:04
you know, the cost of childcare by state. Again, there
23:08
are huge variations depending on you know, where you are
23:12
looking and the type of care that you're you're looking for.
23:15
I mean, it's it's one thing where hey, we're looking
23:18
for babysitters or nannies or daycare. Like, there's all different
23:22
things that you see on average what you see for daycare.
23:26
And this is according to data from care dot com,
23:30
daycare's average annual cost in the entire country. And again
23:35
you can basically vary from like half this to double
23:37
this is about sixteen thousand dollars a year. Now, this
23:42
becomes a real challenge when your average family, or your
23:46
median family rather is making somewhere in the ballpark of
23:50
again sixty five to seventy five thousand dollars a year,
23:53
you're talking like a quarter of pre tax income going
23:58
to childcare. So the question, you know, people raise the question, Okay,
24:04
does it make sense to find you know, to you know,
24:07
subsidize a cheaper alternative with that you know, cause more
24:10
people to have kids. And we covered the story I
24:12
think on Monday. Hey, look, basically, no matter what Europe
24:15
has done, people don't want to have more kids. It's
24:18
it's not about the money in terms of what's actually
24:21
causing it. Having said that, hey, let's say that you
24:25
are an average American. You don't just wake up and say, hey,
24:29
let me find sixteen thousand extra dollars no for daycare,
24:33
Like you don't just do that by like picking up
24:35
an extra shift or to that's something that you're talking
24:39
after tax, you gotta be looking at like another twenty
24:42
five thousand dollars, And if your family's making seventy five
24:44
to begin with, where's that going to come from? And
24:50
So this is something that I don't think it's a
24:54
something that we should be trying to solve simply because
24:57
we think it'll cause us to have more kids. Because
25:00
how many kids a family has is the business of
25:02
them and them alone. Like I don't want to be like, hey,
25:05
like you should have more kids. Like no, like you
25:08
take that and put it wherever, you know, Like, it's
25:12
just it's not my place to tell someone else how
25:15
many kids to have, And it certainly shouldn't be the
25:17
government's place to be being like, no, you need to
25:19
have X number of kids. That's what the Chinese government
25:23
does not the US government, but how do we figure
25:28
out how for the people who do decide to have kids. Man,
25:31
there's gotta be something that we can do. I don't
25:34
know what it is, because it's not just throwing money
25:36
at the problem. But man, you can't have the average
25:40
childcare cost being a quarter of the average family's pre
25:44
tax income. Like, that's a system that is unsustainable And
25:48
the answer can't always just be well, grandma and grandma
25:51
are gonna help out because grandma and grandpa get older also,
25:55
and like it's like it's there has to be a
25:59
better way to do this. I don't know what it is,
26:02
and maybe there isn't maybe like this is just what
26:05
it is, but man, like it it does suck. I'm
26:09
just not sure that it's a case where from a
26:12
policy perspective, like this has all been like, hey, this
26:14
is how we want it to be. It's just no,
26:16
this is where it is.
26:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just don't think you can solve it without
26:21
having to throw significant dollars at it. Because I was
26:24
listening to something elsewhere on a podcast where basically the
26:28
one area that you can't have any sort of optimization
26:32
through technology is childcare. It's not as if the advancements
26:35
in technology to automate things is applicable to childca you
26:39
still need Robots are not taking care of kids anytime exactly,
26:42
So that's it's an area where it hasn't been subsidized.
26:45
Like technology has to make things easier. You still need
26:48
a certain amount of people to care for kids, and
26:51
there's a lot of liability that goes with the coverage
26:53
as well. So to me, it's a problem, but I
26:57
just don't have the solution for It's.
27:00
Speaker 2: Talk a little bit about what we're seeing from banks
27:04
as far as interest rates on savings products. Obviously, the
27:07
Fed started cutting interest rates at its September meeting with
27:11
a fifty basis point rate cut. Since then, we've seen
27:14
and even before then, yields started to come down on
27:17
savings products, where good luck trying to find five percent
27:21
CDs anymore. Even ones in like the mid to high
27:24
fours are kind of all but gone at this point.
27:28
And anytime interest rates move, we get the pieces lamenting
27:32
the direction they moved. When interest rates go down, it's
27:35
g Savers are really in a tough spot right now.
27:38
When interest rates go up, it's hey, you know, people
27:41
who want a mortgage are really in a tough spot.
27:44
It feels like no matter what the FED does, people
27:47
are always angry with them, And I don't think that's fair.
27:50
And I'm not really a defender of the Fed. I'm
27:53
a defender of the pieces written about like how bad
27:56
it is that what they've done affects somebody. They have
28:00
to make a decision that like that is their job,
28:04
and some people are gonna be helped by it, some
28:06
people are gonna be hurt. We can't complain simultaneously that
28:10
interest rates are both too high and too low. No,
28:13
absolutely not, And that's what we do more often than not.
28:15
Like right now it's g interest rate. Mortgage rates are
28:18
still at six and three quarters, Like no one can
28:20
afford a house. Oh the Fed cut rates. Now you
28:23
don't have five percent savings rates anymore. Well, you can't
28:26
complain about both of those things.
28:28
Speaker 3: No, absolutely not. And the other piece that is importantly
28:32
mentioned in the swall Street Journal piece is it can't
28:35
be an investing strategy to build your portfolio around the
28:38
idea that you're just gonna be able to continue to
28:40
collect four percent or five percent on a money market.
28:45
I had a conversation with someone recently who just said,
28:48
gonna take the lump sum put it into CDs and
28:50
money markets. Yes, you may be able to get these
28:52
rates today, but this evidence here that we have recently,
28:56
these can these things can change very quickly.
28:59
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we come back, it's
29:01
time for a little bit of stack Roulette.
29:04
Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Like our page
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29:10
morning Loan. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Miss
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29:25
Financial Exchange Radio Network.
29:30
Speaker 4: The Ultimate Boston Sports Auction to benefit the Disabled American
29:33
Veterans Department of Massachusetts is coming soon. Your chance to
29:38
see the world champion Celtics, the Bruins, the Red Sox,
29:41
and the Patriots, plus autograph merch from Pedro Martinez, Chris STAPs, Porzingis,
29:45
Brandon Carlow and much more. One massive auction for incredible
29:50
experiences in all to benefit the Disabled American Veterans Department
29:54
of Massachusetts. The auction begins on November fourth at eleven am.
29:58
That's Monday Nova number fourth at eleven am. Keep you
30:02
here on the financial exchange and help support our great
30:06
American heroes.
30:07
Speaker 2: Paul, what do you have me for? Stack Roulette?
30:10
Speaker 3: The Celtics are up for sale and there's been a
30:12
lot of conjecture as to who that buyer is going
30:15
to be. One of the areas that has been covered
30:17
on sports radio and other venues out there is whether
30:22
or not a new stadium would be built as part
30:24
of that purchase. And it's easier said than done, as
30:27
outlined in a Boston Globe piece today, where currently the
30:30
Celtics share their arena, the TD Garden, with the Boston Bruins,
30:34
and the Boston Bruins are that have ownership stake in
30:39
the arena rather than the Celtics. So the idea would
30:42
be for whoever buys the Celtics franchise, which could go
30:45
as high as five and a half billion depending on
30:48
the final sales price, would they be able to set
30:50
out and build a new stadium.
30:51
Speaker 2: And it's a really tricky thing to do.
30:53
Speaker 3: Just ask Robert Craft, who's been trying to build a
30:56
stadium for the Revolution for the last decade plus in
31:00
the Seaport area. Was one of the goals with this
31:03
the Patriots and then Everett for the revolution side of things.
31:07
So it will be interesting to see if that is
31:09
something that is part of the push, is part of
31:11
the purchase, but it's a lot that goes into it
31:16
and a lot of bureaucracy that needs to be cleared
31:18
if that were the push. They're arguing that Everett would
31:21
have even more room for a basketball stadium as well,
31:25
and better access to public transit, but I think that's
31:29
a little bit lofty goal.
31:32
Speaker 2: It's kind of kind of tough to have better access
31:34
to public transit than what the Garden has right now.
31:37
You get more station and the green and orange lines,
31:40
right so like Everett does not have that. Yeah, it
31:47
just doesn't. I think. Look, clearly, the Celtics are gonna
31:51
want their own stadium, like in a perfect world, just
31:53
because right now they get basically not not basically they
31:57
get they pay rent to the Bruins effectively.
32:00
Speaker 3: Twelve more years on that least. To not be able
32:03
to benefit from all year round use on your stadium
32:06
is a bit of a drawback and why you wouldn't
32:09
see the Celtics command potentially a higher price because it's
32:12
so lucrative to be able to have Taylor Swift, you know,
32:15
pull up at the TD garden and to be able
32:17
to collect doesn't do.
32:18
Speaker 2: The garden anymore. She does Joe Lot. Yeah, but you
32:21
know what I'm saying, she doesn't do the garden. It's
32:23
too big for it. I saw her at the garden.
32:25
She was actually opening for Keith Urban back in two
32:27
thousand and nine, and I saw her there way back when.
32:31
Speaker 3: Oh how times have changed.
32:32
Speaker 2: I know, like again, she was the opener for Keith
32:34
Urban back then.
32:35
Speaker 3: One other sports thing that I want to quickly hit
32:38
is Tom Brady becoming a Minori minority owner in the
32:41
Las Vegas Raiders and the impact to him broadcasting games
32:46
where basically he's going to be limited to not criticizing officials,
32:51
not going to broadcast meetings during the week, not being
32:54
able to watch team practices. They're paying this guy thirty
32:57
seven and a half million a year to broadcast games.
32:59
Any can't do all the things that a broadcaster would do.
33:03
It would be like we can't talk pre show. Paul
33:05
has his ownership staate, he he can't even talk about
33:07
what we're going to be doing on the program.
33:09
Speaker 4: It just makes absolutely he can't like criticize any referee
33:12
calls or anything now, But.
33:14
Speaker 2: Does that ever happen anyways? Like, how often do you
33:16
actually see broadcasters?
33:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, Michaels, Michaels will go at them and it's refreshing.
33:21
Trey Aikman Wall as well.
33:24
Speaker 2: But the fact that you like can mention, oh, like
33:26
these guys do means that most of them don't.
33:29
Speaker 3: Sure, you know, depends on your seniority and your stake. Yeah,
33:33
if you get your first gig, you know on afternoon
33:36
games at Fox, you're not going to be blowing up
33:38
the officials. But once you have seniority, there's a little
33:40
more leverage to it.
33:41
Speaker 4: I wonder if he bows out of Fox because of
33:43
this now, like after this year.
33:46
Speaker 2: It complicates your job quite a bit. I don't know.
33:49
Four hundred million dollars is nice, it's just some tucker
33:55
if you franchise, if you paid me thirty seven million
33:59
dollars a year and said, Chuck, you can do the
34:03
financial exchange, but you can't comment on pieces from the
34:09
Wall Street Journal anymore. You can't rip market Watch for
34:14
you know, some of its deceptive headlines anymore. And you're
34:17
sure as heck can't tell people that if you're reading
34:20
it on CNBC, then it's already happened. I'd find a
34:23
way to do that for thirty seven million dollars. Yeah,
34:26
I know that we all like to say, like like
34:29
we'd figure it out for that amount of money. You
34:32
we would.
34:33
Speaker 3: But if you are the employer, where the whole benefit
34:36
to having Tom Brady a lot of it during the
34:38
week is that he goes in these team facilities, what
34:41
you'd think, and he would get a lot more information
34:43
out of coaches and players to provide insight to the
34:46
broadcast because of his standing in the league. To not
34:49
have that seems like you're missing part of a critical
34:52
piece of things.
34:53
Speaker 2: Two things, I think that the reason that you paid
34:55
Tom Brady is because he's Tom Brady, not because of
34:57
any information that he can get you. It's you think
34:59
that that name is going to attract people to your broadcasts.
35:03
And the other piece is, Okay, if they decide that
35:05
they want to get rid of him, fine, they still
35:08
have to pay.
35:08
Speaker 4: Him out in that contract.
35:13
Speaker 2: I mean, look, I haven't I haven't read the contract.
35:16
I'm sure some sort of out Listen, Tom and I
35:19
don't talk that often, so I don't know all of
35:23
the deats find out.
35:24
Speaker 4: But.
35:26
Speaker 3: Hopefully it's better structure than his crypto endorsement contract was.
35:31
Speaker 2: Was that poorly structured or did he just like it was?
35:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think he got a flat V for
35:39
his services.
35:41
Speaker 2: It's too bad that did not work out. Well, it's
35:43
too bad. Uh, let's see I want to cover uh
35:47
this piece that Tucker just sent me. The FTC has
35:52
finalized what they're calling the click to Cancel rule, and
35:56
the basic premise of this is rather simple, which is,
36:00
if you sign up for a product using one method,
36:03
you have to be allowed to cancel that product via
36:08
the same method. So things along the lines of gym memberships.
36:13
Where when I was a Planet Fitness member, that's the
36:15
hardest thing, when I signed up online and when I
36:18
finally decided to cancel keep mine. This was in like
36:21
March of twenty twenty, so like everything was shut down
36:24
for COVID. You had to go to the gym in
36:28
order to cancel your membership, and the gym was closed.
36:32
So you literally, I'm saying that with the right usage,
36:37
not you know all bachelor bachelorette. You know you literally
36:42
could not cancel your gym membership during that time, and
36:46
that's problematic. Now does it rise to the level of
36:51
the FTC needing to put a rule in place. I'm
36:54
a big believer that government exists to solve problems that
36:57
individuals cannot solve for themselves. In the case of a
37:00
nine dollars gym membership, look, ultimately to me, it wasn't
37:04
a huge deal. Final paid for one more month and
37:06
then walking and cancel. Not the end of the world.
37:10
But there are all kinds of other products that get
37:13
sold that are on a recurring basis that are more expensive,
37:17
either in dollar value or is a percentage of income
37:19
to a family. And if you make it impossible or
37:23
nearly impossible for people to cancel looking at you serious XM. Also,
37:29
then it's something where yeah, it's kind of this just
37:32
public nuisance and it's just this drain on money. And
37:36
so I'm not opposed to this because what's the downside
37:39
of this? Also is what I look at, like, what's
37:41
the downside to this rule? Here's the potential downside. Companies say, well,
37:46
now we're gonna make it so that you have to
37:47
come into the gym in order to sign up. Okay, fine,
37:50
if you're willing to take a haircut to your revenue
37:53
in order to satisfy it. Fine, like, do that too.
37:57
But I don't have a huge problem with this. I
38:01
know some people will be like, Oh, that's not what
38:02
they should be. What's the downside to this? I don't know.
38:07
I'm kind of cool with it in the general broad
38:09
scheme of things, just because a lot of these charges
38:13
are just like parasitic in nature. It's like having a
38:16
tick on you that you have to go return the tick.
38:20
Quick break for the rest of the day. We'll see
38:21
you tomorrow.