Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Did Michael Saylor Just CONFIRM Bitcoin's Bear Market?! | EP 1404

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Did Michael Saylor Just CONFIRM Bitcoin's Bear Market?! | EP 1404 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Yo, Michael Saylor is officially not buying Bitcoin and buying
• 0:07
  more USD. That's right, strategy is
• 0:10
  accumulating more U.S. dollars. They're not a buying Bitcoin
• 0:15
  with those U.S. dollars. Is he preparing is strategy
• 0:18
  preparing for a potential Bitcoin bear market?
• 0:22
  And he's not the only one sending mixed signals.
• 0:25
  We've got a strange report from Vanek to cover.
• 0:28
  But before we get into do all of that, let's break down exactly
• 0:32
  what Sailor just did. So let's get straight into
• 0:35
  today's show, ladies and gentlemen.
• 0:38
  First, let's start off with a meme.
• 0:40
  It wouldn't be simply Bitcoin if we didn't start off with a meme.
• 0:43
  And I mean, he's saying the choir part out loud.
• 0:46
  He's saying ride the bear. I mean, there's not a lot to
• 0:49
  interpret there, right? It's it's pretty obvious.
• 0:52
  It's pretty up in your face. And he posted this on December
• 0:56
  of 2020, December 23rd of 2025 falls up in December 20th of
• 1:02
  2025. He posts another meme of him.
• 1:05
  Bears can't see the orange. But you know, you could, you
• 1:08
  could be making the argument. OK, Nico, he's just trolling.
• 1:12
  He doesn't actually mean that, you know, he's just saying like
• 1:15
  look like Hoddle, like don't take any of this seriously.
• 1:18
  Hoddle through the bear. But again, don't pay attention
• 1:21
  to what they say. Pay attention to what they do.
• 1:24
  And this is what I'm looking at. So recently on December 22nd,
• 1:28
  20, 25 Strategy made a major announcement.
• 1:33
  But check this out. Usually when they make these
• 1:36
  types of announcements, you usually get an announcement of a
• 1:39
  of a Bitcoin buy. That wasn't the case this time.
• 1:43
  Quote strategy has increased. It's USD reserved by 4 by $748
• 1:49
  million and now holds 2 point one $2.19 billion worth of cash
• 1:56
  and 671,000 Bitcoin. So again, that's in stark
• 2:00
  contrast to how Sailor and Strategy have been basically
• 2:05
  accumulating Bitcoin for the last couple of years or so.
• 2:09
  Every time they have some spare cash or they raise some spare
• 2:12
  cash, what do they do with it? They bought, they smashed buy
• 2:17
  Bitcoin immediately. This time it's a little bit
• 2:20
  different. They're not smashed buying
• 2:22
  Bitcoin immediately. What they're doing instead is
• 2:25
  accumulating a cash position. Why else would you accumulate a
• 2:30
  cash position if you didn't believe that potentially Bitcoin
• 2:35
  could go lower and you can use some of that cash obviously to
• 2:38
  buy more Bitcoin at a lower price?
• 2:41
  Now again, this is all speculative.
• 2:44
  What I learned from 2025, ladies and gentlemen, is that every
• 2:48
  single person got it completely wrong.
• 2:51
  They just got it wrong. Your favorite influencer, your
• 2:54
  favorite person that that's doing TA online, Every single
• 2:58
  person did not expect 2025 to play out the way it has.
• 3:03
  And to be blunt, you had gold outperforming Bitcoin, you had
• 3:07
  the S&P 500 outperforming Bitcoin, you had silver
• 3:11
  outperforming Bitcoin. Basically everything
• 3:14
  outperformed Bitcoin in 2025. Now you can take it, you could
• 3:19
  take that in many different ways.
• 3:20
  You could say, OK, that sets up 2026 to be an incredible year, a
• 3:25
  a parabolic year. A lot of people are speculating
• 3:27
  and saying just that and a lot of people are saying that, Nico,
• 3:30
  this is just part of the four year cycle.
• 3:33
  The the cycle played out a lot sooner because of the
• 3:36
  introduction of the ETFs this cycle.
• 3:38
  The all time high was reached before the halving, right?
• 3:42
  That's never happened before in Bitcoin's history.
• 3:44
  So you could say that all the gains were actually be made in
• 3:49
  the first two years of the Bitcoin bull run.
• 3:52
  And now we're starting to enter into the early innings of a
• 3:56
  correction of a bear market. And again, it seems like
• 3:59
  strategy, like the Bitcoin Treasury Company, again, sailors
• 4:04
  memeing it with multiple memes. You could take that as you will,
• 4:07
  but again, other than the memes, you could pay attention to what
• 4:10
  they're actually doing. And it seems like they're
• 4:13
  hedging their position a little bit.
• 4:15
  And that's why they're accumulating this much cash and
• 4:18
  they're not deploying that cash. They're sitting on that cash.
• 4:22
  Why else would you sit on cash unless you thought Bitcoin was
• 4:26
  going to go lower? And that's exactly what strategy
• 4:29
  is doing now. Peter Schiff, you guys all know
• 4:32
  the deal with Peter Schiff. He is the ultimate Bitcoin bear.
• 4:35
  He, he dislikes Bitcoin tremendously.
• 4:38
  He's he's all about gold. And he follows up with this
• 4:42
  announcement and he says, it seems to me that you're building
• 4:45
  dollar reserves as you realize you will need them given rising
• 4:50
  inflation as the Fed cuts rates and continues QE.
• 4:53
  Why not build gold reserves instead of U.S. dollar reserves?
• 4:58
  That's what Tether is doing. So again, this is one of the
• 5:03
  rare situations, one of the rare years where Peter Schiff could
• 5:08
  take his victory lap. Like, I can't believe I'm even
• 5:10
  saying that. But that's just the reality.
• 5:13
  The reality is that gold had a fantastic year.
• 5:16
  I think it's 60 to 70% up year to date.
• 5:19
  And also silver, I think it's more silver's more.
• 5:22
  It's up more than 100%. It's crazy.
• 5:25
  It's crazy that these metals that don't even do anything are
• 5:28
  outperforming Bitcoin the way they did.
• 5:31
  I have an article for you guys during the culture segment.
• 5:34
  I have a lot of theories behind as to why a lot of this stuff is
• 5:37
  happening. Look, the game changed the
• 5:41
  moment that the ETFs were introduced in January of 2024.
• 5:45
  As soon as Wall Street got in, these Wall Street shenanigans
• 5:50
  started happening. I mean, you guys have seen the
• 5:52
  price action. It doesn't even make sense.
• 5:55
  Every every 10:00 AM, every weekday, 10 AM hits and you'd
• 5:59
  either had you either have a Bitcoin fall down like 5% or
• 6:03
  rise 5%. It's like clockwork.
• 6:05
  Like, what the hell is going going on, right?
• 6:07
  So I think ever since Wall Street got in the game with the
• 6:11
  introductions of the ETFs and then of course the treasury
• 6:14
  companies, I think that the game has fundamentally changed.
• 6:18
  And I think as I was telling you guys yesterday, now we're
• 6:21
  heading into an era of uncertainty, which I would say
• 6:25
  is a good thing. And by the way, I'm not the only
• 6:27
  one saying this. You have Joe Carlisari.
• 6:29
  He's been around in the space for a long time.
• 6:31
  And he says during my time in Bitcoin since 2015, the
• 6:35
  sentiment has never been worse in my opinion.
• 6:38
  Today I talked to a friend who has held since 2017.
• 6:41
  He is seriously considering selling his entire 7 figure
• 6:45
  position. He didn't even think about
• 6:47
  selling in 2022 at the FX bottom.
• 6:51
  Bottom. This really, really feels
• 6:53
  different and that goes to what I've been saying.
• 6:56
  We're in completely uncharted territory.
• 6:59
  None of the metrics that point out that's that indicate that
• 7:04
  Bitcoin has reached an all time high or Bitcoin has reached a
• 7:07
  peak. None of those metrics have hit.
• 7:10
  None of those metrics are indicating that we hit a
• 7:14
  euphoric top, right. So it seems like this cycle, if
• 7:18
  it has peaked, indeed it peaked on apathy.
• 7:21
  That's really never happened before.
• 7:23
  Every single peak, whether it's 20/17/2013 or 2021, we entered
• 7:29
  some type of euphoric phase. We never hit that phase this
• 7:33
  cycle. I would say the last time we
• 7:35
  felt some type of euphoria was at the end of 2024 and in the
• 7:40
  beginning of 2025. And it seems like even companies
• 7:44
  the likes of strategy are preparing themselves with cash
• 7:48
  positions in order to, you know, again, get that dip right or
• 7:54
  potentially buy that dip. But I agree with Joe Carlos,
• 7:57
  sorry. I mean, the sentiment is
• 7:59
  absolutely atrocious. I don't think we've seen this in
• 8:03
  an extremely long time. We haven't seen this.
• 8:07
  I can't remember the last time we've seen this level of
• 8:09
  uncertainty. I can't remember the last time
• 8:12
  people didn't feel like Bitcoin was this absolute sure bet we
• 8:19
  were going to win. I don't I don't remember the
• 8:22
  last time the the, the market felt this way.
• 8:25
  And another interesting data point for you guys.
• 8:28
  If you look at the fear and greed index, it's like people
• 8:33
  are feeling extreme fear, right? And we haven't even had a crazy
• 8:36
  correction like a 30% correction in Bitcoin terms is not that
• 8:41
  wild right? And people are still feeling
• 8:44
  extreme fear. So it's safe to say at this
• 8:47
  point you can make an argument that we are in uncharted
• 8:51
  territory. I would say that's a good thing
• 8:54
  because with that uncertainty comes opportunity, right?
• 8:58
  At the end of the day, Bitcoin, it's a risky investment if
• 9:04
  you're looking at it that way. Of course, you can look at it
• 9:06
  from an ideological perspective like I do.
• 9:09
  I say look, Bitcoins the the best money the world has ever
• 9:12
  seen. If you've ever dealt with the
• 9:14
  wire transfer and you deal with the Bitcoin network like you
• 9:18
  know that bitcoins going to win, right?
• 9:20
  Wire transfer is obfuscated. You don't know where that wire
• 9:23
  is when, when it's in transit. If you send a Bitcoin
• 9:27
  transaction, you can know, you know exactly, OK, look, here's
• 9:30
  my Bitcoin transaction. I sent it to you.
• 9:33
  It's a public Ledger, right? It's instantaneous.
• 9:36
  You can send it anywhere around the world, right?
• 9:38
  You don't have to go through all the traditional hoops that you
• 9:40
  have to do with the traditional financial system.
• 9:42
  It's already better money. Not to mention the fact that
• 9:45
  there's absolute scarcity. It has a 21 million cap supply
• 9:49
  of estimated 4 million of those 21 millionaire lost.
• 9:52
  So it's obviously better money, right?
• 9:55
  The Lightning Network is is improving layer 2 tremendously.
• 9:58
  So the scaling stuff is getting figured out.
• 10:01
  It's better money that that is not up for discussion.
• 10:05
  That is that is not up for debate.
• 10:07
  But I think right now people have lost their eye on the ball,
• 10:12
  right? I think this year, it was the
• 10:15
  year of the introduction of Wall Street.
• 10:18
  So the introduction of the ETFs, the the success of the Bitcoin
• 10:21
  treasury companies and people really lost the plot.
• 10:25
  They really lost. They really forgot why we are
• 10:27
  here and we are here to separate money and stay.
• 10:31
  We are here, you fix the money, fix the world, right?
• 10:35
  But anyways, I wanted to lay that out for you guys.
• 10:38
  And it's, it's quite interesting, right?
• 10:40
  Because not too long ago you heard a lot of things from
• 10:44
  Saylor like, hey, listen, we are never going to sell Bitcoin.
• 10:48
  You don't sell your Bitcoin. And it seems like that sentiment
• 10:51
  is changing based on market conditions.
• 10:53
  I mean, this was a clip from one of the presentations that he had
• 10:58
  not too long ago. Above 1 * M NAV the most
• 11:04
  efficient thing for a public company like ours to do is to
• 11:06
  sell the equity. Below 1 * M NAV we just get lots
• 11:10
  of questions and there are sceptics that that are doubtful.
• 11:14
  Well, could you sell the Bitcoin?
• 11:16
  Would you sell the Bitcoin? And the answer is yes, we could
• 11:19
  sell the Bitcoin. We could also sell Bitcoin
• 11:22
  derivatives and we would do that because that's in the best
• 11:26
  interest of the shareholders and because it's in the best sense
• 11:28
  of the shareholders, it's best for the company and therefore
• 11:31
  best for the Bitcoin community as well as the credit community
• 11:35
  as well as the equity investors. So again, personally, I love
• 11:41
  Michael Saylor. I'm a big fan of Michael Saylor.
• 11:43
  I think what he's done for the space has been incredible.
• 11:47
  But it it would be they're responsible of me not to call
• 11:52
  out the fact that this is a change in tune.
• 11:55
  This is a complete change in tune that it's always been.
• 11:58
  Do not sell your Bitcoin. Now it's we might sell Bitcoin
• 12:02
  depending on market conditions, while simultaneously we are, you
• 12:07
  know, building up a cash position.
• 12:10
  And the only reason you're building up a cash position as a
• 12:13
  Bitcoin treasury company is to kind of had your bet a little
• 12:15
  bit in case Bitcoin goes lower. Guess what?
• 12:19
  You have cash to deploy to buy cheaper sats, right?
• 12:22
  That's the only reason you would do it.
• 12:23
  Like, let's be real here, right? So anyways, and we're not the
• 12:27
  only ones to notice this here at Simply Bitcoin.
• 12:30
  Here is a Yahoo Finance article. Sailor strategy raise raises
• 12:34
  reserve pauses Bitcoin purchases Michael Saylor strategy
• 12:40
  bolstered its cash reserve to $2.19 billion and pause
• 12:45
  purchases of Bitcoin over the past weeks as the largest
• 12:49
  digital asset treasury company appears to be settling in for a
• 12:53
  long crypto winter. And again, this coincides with
• 12:56
  what the CEO of strategy said on a recent podcast.
• 13:00
  We played you guys a clip where he even said crypto winter.
• 13:04
  Those are his words, not mine. The Tyson's Corner, Virginia
• 13:08
  based firm raised $748 million through the sale of common
• 13:12
  shares in the seven days ended December 21st, according to a a
• 13:17
  filing Monday with the SEC. It had purchased about $2
• 13:21
  billion in Bitcoin over the previous two weeks, bringing its
• 13:24
  total holdings to around 60 billion.
• 13:27
  Earlier this month, Strategy created a $1.4 billion reserve
• 13:31
  to fund future dividend and interest payments in a bin to
• 13:35
  temper fears that it may be forced to sell Bitcoin if token
• 13:39
  prices prices continue to fall. Bitcoin has declined around 30%
• 13:44
  since reaching an all time high in early October.
• 13:46
  Strategy shares have tumbled more than 50% during the same
• 13:50
  period the stock has. The stock was little changed at
• 13:54
  $164 on Monday. If the company's M NAV, a key
• 13:58
  valuation metric comparing the firm's enterprise value to the
• 14:02
  value of its Bitcoin holdings, sat around 1.1 on Monday.
• 14:06
  And remember what he said on that video.
• 14:08
  If the M NAV goes below 1, then Strategy would consider selling
• 14:15
  Bitcoin, according to its website.
• 14:17
  A reminder that investors remain concerned that may soon turn
• 14:21
  negative after once commanding a significant premium strategy.
• 14:25
  Has about 824,000,000 in interest and dividend payments
• 14:29
  annually. It continues to say the company
• 14:33
  software business does not generate enough free cash flow
• 14:36
  to cover the dividend or interest payments.
• 14:39
  Bitcoin doesn't pay a dividend, right?
• 14:41
  So again, just pointing it out there why it makes sense why
• 14:46
  they're accumulating a cash position.
• 14:48
  It's a little bit of a hedge and I know that Opti isn't here and
• 14:53
  Opti is usually the bullish person on today's show.
• 14:55
  I've been telling you guys since like a month ago, everyone was
• 14:59
  giving me crap in the chat. I've been telling you guys.
• 15:01
  I said I remember this feeling because I remember in 2017 and I
• 15:06
  remember in 2021 this feeling in the feeling.
• 15:09
  It's almost as if like the party's over type of thing.
• 15:13
  You get that type of feeling now this time could be different and
• 15:17
  I know that we say that every single time Bitcoin does this
• 15:20
  thing and it you know, we peak and it goes down and it it's
• 15:24
  always this time is different and there's just a super cycle
• 15:27
  and stuff like that. It could be different and the
• 15:30
  reason as I'm saying it could be different is that again, the
• 15:36
  amount of institutional interest this cycle is something the
• 15:40
  likes of which we've never seen before and any other previous
• 15:46
  Bitcoin bull run. Bitcoin is already behaving
• 15:49
  differently than any other previous Bitcoin bull run.
• 15:53
  Like the fact that we peaked before the halving is already
• 15:56
  telling me that we're in uncharted territory.
• 15:59
  The fact that the meme, the three green, one red, if you
• 16:02
  don't know what that meme meme is, it's basically there's three
• 16:05
  green years in Bitcoin and then there's one red year, meaning
• 16:09
  Bitcoin goes up for three years and then it goes down for one
• 16:12
  year. That meme already has broken.
• 16:14
  Ladies and gentlemen, unless things change in the next 8
• 16:17
  days, it seems like that meme is broken.
• 16:20
  So it's going to be two green, one red, and then 2026 yet to be
• 16:25
  determined, right? So we're already in uncharted
• 16:28
  territory. So the argument of this time is
• 16:31
  different is already a valid argument.
• 16:34
  The question is, and this, this is where absolutely nobody,
• 16:38
  including the institutional investors, right, including all
• 16:42
  the reports that I've seen, I, this is what I do for a living.
• 16:44
  So I have to read all of this stuff.
• 16:46
  No one has any idea. And if they tell you otherwise,
• 16:49
  they're absolutely lying to you. No one has any idea how Bitcoin
• 16:54
  is going to perform in 2026, including myself.
• 16:58
  But I always take the position of, listen, right now the four
• 17:03
  year cycle is intact and it's playing out like a four year
• 17:07
  cycle plays out. So if I were, if I were telling
• 17:11
  you anything otherwise I'd be lying to you.
• 17:14
  The four year cycle is intact until it's not.
• 17:18
  So I think we're going to find out in Q1 and Q2 of 2026 what is
• 17:24
  really going on. What is really going on with
• 17:26
  Bitcoin. Are we truly heading into a bear
• 17:28
  market? Are we going to see a 6070%
• 17:31
  correction or, or are we going to be hitting all time highs?
• 17:36
  Because there's a lot of people that are a lot smarter than me
• 17:39
  that are believing that that could be the case.
• 17:41
  Then there's also the Vanek report.
• 17:44
  The Vanek report is quite interesting.
• 17:46
  So Vanek again, no one knows what's going to happen with
• 17:50
  Bitcoin. That is the lesson of 2025.
• 17:52
  Take it, take it, take that lesson.
• 17:55
  Bitcoin humbles everyone. It takes the pain.
• 17:57
  The path of maximum pain, always has, always will.
• 18:01
  In my opinion, Bitcoin humbles you.
• 18:03
  So the best strategy long term is stay humble, stay solvent and
• 18:08
  stack sacks. But anyways, let's check out
• 18:10
  this Vanek report. What it says, Vanek says this is
• 18:14
  TFTC. Our friends over at TFTC posted
• 18:16
  this and they said Vanek says 2026 is more likely a
• 18:20
  consolidation year for Bitcoin, not a melt up or collapse with
• 18:24
  improving fundamentals and post halving normalization.
• 18:28
  So it's quite interesting that they're saying that and I'm
• 18:30
  going to get into the specifics of it.
• 18:32
  I'm going to read it because again, that would mean that
• 18:35
  Bitcoin would have two years in a row that it's going sideways
• 18:40
  because 2025 was a sideways year for Bitcoin.
• 18:42
  If anything, it was a downward year for Bitcoin.
• 18:44
  I know it's only down 6%, but it was a down.
• 18:47
  It was a downward year, right? So Van Neck is making the
• 18:50
  opportunity that, hey, listen, 2026 might be another sideways
• 18:54
  year. So we have two years
• 18:55
  back-to-back. The Bitcoin has gone sideways.
• 18:58
  Anyways, digital assets enter 2026 with mixed but constructive
• 19:03
  signals. Bitcoin fell about 80% in the
• 19:06
  last cycle, but realized volatility has since dropped by
• 19:10
  roughly half, which implies A proportional drawdown of about
• 19:14
  40%. This time.
• 19:15
  The market has already absorbed roughly 35% at the same.
• 19:19
  At the same time, Bitcoin's historical four year cycle,
• 19:22
  which tends to peak in the immediate post selection window,
• 19:26
  remains intact following the early October 2025 high.
• 19:31
  That pattern suggests 2026 is more likely a consolidation year
• 19:35
  than a melt up or collapse. Our outlook follows A3 lens
• 19:41
  framework. Global liquidity is mixed.
• 19:44
  Likely rate cuts provide support, but US liquidity is
• 19:47
  tightening somewhat because AI driven CapEx fears have collided
• 19:52
  with a more fragile funding market and push credit spreads
• 19:56
  wider. 2, Leveraging the crypto eco ecosystem has reset after
• 20:01
  several washouts. 3 On chain activity, while still soft, is
• 20:06
  beginning to improve. Against this backdrop, we favor
• 20:10
  a disciplined 1 to 3% Bitcoin allocation built through dollar
• 20:14
  cost averaging and by adding exposure during leverage unwinds
• 20:19
  and trimming into speculative excesses.
• 20:22
  We also note that quantum security has become an active
• 20:25
  topic inside the community and while not an immediate threat,
• 20:29
  any coordinated response could resemble the first block size
• 20:33
  debate where a transparent and technically rich public process
• 20:37
  pulled large numbers of new observers into the ecosystem and
• 20:41
  strengthening long term engagement.
• 20:43
  For 2026, we continue to we continue to see the strongest
• 20:47
  opportunity in the capital intensive pivot underway in
• 20:51
  Bitcoin mining. Operators are trying to fund
• 20:54
  both hash rate expansion and AI and HPC infrastructure at the
• 20:59
  same time. This is pushing balance sheets
• 21:02
  to their limits and widening the spread in cost of capital across
• 21:06
  the sector. Mining with hyperscaler
• 21:09
  partnerships are now raising straight debt on comparatively
• 21:13
  attractive terms, while second tier operators are relying on
• 21:17
  dilutive converts or selling Bitcoin into weakness.
• 21:20
  We think this creates the cleanest consolidation setup
• 21:23
  since 2020 to 2020 to 2021 and see the best risk reward in
• 21:29
  minors transitioning into energy backed compute platforms with
• 21:33
  credible HPC economics advantage, power and financing
• 21:37
  pass that do not require serial dilution.
• 21:40
  A second but more selective opportunity is emerging in
• 21:43
  digital payments and stable coin settlements.
• 21:46
  Stable coins are entering entering genuine business to
• 21:49
  business payment flows where they can improve working Capital
• 21:52
  Management and reduce cross-border settlement costs.
• 21:56
  However, pureplay public equities remain scarce, and many
• 21:59
  investors remain wary of volatile layer 1 tokens.
• 22:04
  The more investable angle may sit in fintech and e-commerce
• 22:07
  platforms that can unlock margin leverage by shifting supplier
• 22:12
  payments, payouts and cross-border settlements into
• 22:15
  stablecoins. High throughput chains will
• 22:18
  support much of this activity and a few tokens tied to genuine
• 22:21
  usage may benefit, but we believe the most durable
• 22:25
  opportunity may lie in the operating companies enabling
• 22:28
  adoption rather than broad token exposure.
• 22:33
  So interesting take again from Vanek and I'll tell you guys
• 22:38
  what I personally believe, what I've been telling you guys for
• 22:41
  the last couple of weeks, while you guys are all calling me a
• 22:44
  bear and saying Nico's bearish and Nico's depressing and Nico's
• 22:48
  this. Listen, the four year cycle's
• 22:51
  intact until it's not. That's number one.
• 22:54
  Number two, and this is a reality, Sailor and his company
• 22:59
  strategy is potentially preparing for a crypto winter.
• 23:04
  If the four year cycle is indeed intact, that means that 2026 is
• 23:09
  going to be a potential Bitcoin bear market.
• 23:11
  Now the good news, and I want to emphasize the good news, is that
• 23:15
  the biggest opportunities in Bitcoin is when you buy the
• 23:20
  bottom of the bear markets, right?
• 23:22
  That's how you got an 8X right from the bottom of the 2022 bear
• 23:27
  market to the top of the 2025 peak.
• 23:32
  That's an aid X in that in that return.
• 23:34
  So an aid X in three years is a fantastic return, right.
• 23:38
  So the biggest opportunities is when you have capital to deploy
• 23:42
  at the bottom of a bear market. Now do I believe we're going to
• 23:46
  see an 80 to 70% drawdown like we have in the past?
• 23:50
  No, I don't think so. And the reason for that is quite
• 23:53
  simple. If you don't have a euphoria
• 23:56
  phase, if you don't have retail smash buying the top, then
• 24:02
  you're not going to have retail panic selling the bottom.
• 24:05
  You're not going to have it. It never happened.
• 24:07
  In fact, guys, retail has not come back since 2021.
• 24:13
  And you can make the argument that the reason for that is
• 24:15
  because of the macroeconomic conditions, the position of the
• 24:20
  Fed and the fact that they haven't really lowered rates
• 24:23
  this year fast enough, quick enough, like President Trump
• 24:27
  wanted, like the markets wanted. You saw Anthony Pompiano talk
• 24:31
  about this at length. So again, bitcoins never really
• 24:35
  kind of existed in this environment where it's fighting
• 24:39
  up against these macro headwinds.
• 24:43
  But next year things change, right?
• 24:45
  You have you have President Trump appointing a more a new
• 24:52
  Fed chair that's going to go along more with his policy.
• 24:56
  I would say that the Fed this year, and again, I'm not the
• 24:59
  only one to think this Senator Lummits, Caitlin Long, I would
• 25:02
  say the Fed was a bit antagonistic this year.
• 25:05
  I think that they've tried to sabotage Trump's first year as
• 25:10
  president heading into the midterm terms so that the
• 25:14
  Republicans perform poorly in the midterms.
• 25:17
  I strongly believe that. Why?
• 25:19
  I mean, it's just a bit it's, it's just a case of incentives.
• 25:22
  If you have a pro Bitcoin, anti CBDC candidate and you have the
• 25:27
  other party is anti Bitcoin pro CBDC.
• 25:31
  And if you're the Federal Reserve, what is the future of
• 25:33
  central banking in the Federal Reserve?
• 25:35
  It's a central bank digital currency.
• 25:36
  It's not Bitcoin. Bitcoin takes power away from
• 25:39
  them. So do I blame them for trying to
• 25:41
  essentially sabotage Trump's first year?
• 25:44
  No, I do not, Right. Do I think that they acted
• 25:47
  politically? 100%, Absolutely right.
• 25:50
  The good news is, again, you're going to have a new Fed chair
• 25:53
  next year and again, you're going to have a more favorable
• 25:58
  macro situation, which again goes to the fact that nobody
• 26:03
  knows what's going to happen in 2026.
• 26:07
  It could be bearish. It could be bullish.
• 26:09
  For now, my base case is the four year cycle is intact,
• 26:14
  Sailors preparing for that as well.
• 26:16
  And the four year cycle is intact until it gets broken.
• 26:20
  When it gets broken and what broken would mean what I would
• 26:23
  define as broken as if Bitcoin in Q1 or Q2 of 2026 went above
• 26:29
  115117K. If I see Bitcoin go a above 115
• 26:35
  and 117 K in Q1 and Q2 of 2026, then I'll say hey guys, throw
• 26:41
  away the four year cycle, it's over.
• 26:43
  We're not uncharted territory. We're already in uncharted
• 26:46
  territory, but the four year cycle is still intact.
• 26:49
  So anyways, that was the intro Sailor again, Bear, sailor,
• 26:55
  sailor preparing for potentially selling some Bitcoin.
• 26:58
  Who would have thought? Who could have imagined this
• 27:01
  world, right? Like, this is not something that
• 27:03
  I had in my bingo cards whatsoever, right?
• 27:07
  I do want to read some of the chat again.
• 27:09
  I am hosting the show solo this week while Opti is taking a well
• 27:13
  deserved vacation, a Christmas break with his family.
• 27:17
  So I'm going to be holding it down.
• 27:18
  We're going to be having special guests this week as well.
• 27:21
  We're gonna be having Luke joining us.
• 27:23
  Of course, my beautiful wife Sophie's gonna be joining us as
• 27:25
  well. So it's gonna be a great year, a
• 27:28
  great week. I mean, And then Opti's gonna be
• 27:30
  back next next week for the new year specials and stuff.
• 27:34
  Anyways, now let's check out some of these comments.
• 27:37
  James Combo Marino says, dude, what are you talking about?
• 27:40
  Talking about accumulating a cash position is not selling
• 27:44
  Bitcoin. This is such a short sighted
• 27:47
  thought. I never said Sailor was was
• 27:50
  selling Bitcoin. I said that Sailor potentially
• 27:53
  would sell Bitcoin. Like I'll play, I'll play you
• 27:56
  the clip. It's not my words, it's his
• 27:57
  words. Above 1 * M NAV the most
• 28:02
  efficient thing for a public company like ours to do is to
• 28:04
  sell the equity. Below 1 * M NAV we just get lots
• 28:09
  of questions and there are sceptics that that are doubtful.
• 28:12
  Well, could you sell the Bitcoin?
• 28:14
  Would you sell the Bitcoin? And the answer is yes, we could
• 28:17
  sell the Bitcoin. We could also sell Bitcoin
• 28:20
  derivatives and we would do. So there you go bro.
• 28:24
  That's not my words, it's his words right now.
• 28:26
  But micro strategies M NAV or strategies M NAV is at 1.1.
• 28:30
  They clearly said in that presentation if it goes below
• 28:33
  one, they are open to selling Bitcoin.
• 28:36
  So that's not an opinion of mine, that's something that he
• 28:39
  said. Let's take a look at this down
• 28:42
  under Blues, the Fed, the left, the deep state are all trying to
• 28:45
  sabotage Trump's presidency. They will never stop.
• 28:48
  I mean, I honestly tend to agree.
• 28:51
  Not all of it, but I tend to agree with the sabotaging part.
• 28:55
  Again, why? Because Trump is a pro Bitcoin
• 28:58
  anti CBDC candidate. Someone else said the bottom is
• 29:03
  when Sailor is forced to sell some Bitcoin.
• 29:05
  That would be rough. I would not want to see that
• 29:08
  because that bottom would be low.
• 29:10
  That bottom would not be a high bottom.
• 29:12
  That bottom would be like in the 3040K region.
• 29:15
  So I hope that does not happen. And I also, and I also don't
• 29:19
  see, I don't see Bitcoin going that low.
• 29:22
  Like I see Bitcoin reaching it's 200 day moving average, which is
• 29:27
  around 55 to 60 Ki don't see Bitcoin going below that, if it
• 29:32
  even goes to those levels. I would be extremely surprised
• 29:36
  if we saw 30K Bitcoin. But at the end of the day, you
• 29:39
  never know. You never know.
• 29:40
  That's what you know. That's what being in the
• 29:43
  industry for almost a decade has taught me.
• 29:47
  Here's drinks, kool-aid says can't trust a clown who puts all
• 29:50
  his cash into one asset down under Blue says says.
• 29:55
  I don't believe that is what strategy is doing.
• 29:57
  I mean, I, I pulled up all the data for you, bro.
• 30:00
  I literally pulled up the his tweets and I literally pulled up
• 30:03
  the video. So I, I, I don't know what that
• 30:05
  means. Bitcoin Barber says smash the
• 30:08
  like button, Mulagos or Mulu, I can't pronounce that, says BTC
• 30:17
  and MSTR keep dollar cost averaging.
• 30:19
  No worries for at all. I mean, that's not what they're
• 30:22
  doing. Drinks the kool-aid says these
• 30:26
  metals don't do anything. Is Nico brain dead?
• 30:29
  I mean, OK, fine. I was a little bit hyperbolic in
• 30:32
  that statement. Gold is used for many tech
• 30:36
  products. Silver is used as well.
• 30:40
  It's not like they don't have any use cases.
• 30:42
  But when I say it that way, I mean like, look like gold is not
• 30:46
  a good it. You could say it's a good store
• 30:49
  of value. You could say gold is scarce.
• 30:51
  But I don't think gold is is good money.
• 30:54
  Why? Because of its physical
• 30:55
  characteristics. You can't send gold overseas.
• 31:00
  It's it's extremely difficult. Like yes, you can pay for the
• 31:03
  security, you can pay for the storage, you can pay for all of
• 31:06
  that. Is it instantaneous settlement?
• 31:08
  No. Is it instantaneous sending?
• 31:10
  No. Is it going to cost you a a
• 31:12
  fortune to transport? Yes.
• 31:14
  Is gold extremely heavy? Yes.
• 31:16
  You can send 1,000,000 billions, trillions of dollars of Bitcoin
• 31:21
  halfway across the world, around the world for pennies on the
• 31:24
  dollar. So that's what I mean by when I
• 31:26
  say that, that, that these metals are just not, you know,
• 31:32
  they're just not, they don't do anything.
• 31:34
  That's what I mean. And I was a little bit
• 31:36
  hyperbolic on that statement for sure.
• 31:38
  Someone saying bring on 40K Bitcoin cheaper sats.
• 31:42
  Someone saying 20K easy. Oof man that would be terrible.
• 31:45
  I don't. I absolutely do not want to see
• 31:48
  that. Lightning goats By the way, go
• 31:51
  check out lightning goats. I doubt we'll drop anymore. 80K
• 31:54
  is the absolute absolute floor. Lightning Goats has been around
• 31:59
  for a while and then someone else says be prepared for 30K
• 32:03
  Bitcoin. So anyway, so it seems like
• 32:06
  someone saying be prepared for 40K, someone saying this bear,
• 32:12
  this bearishness is worse than the first four months of 2022.
• 32:16
  I mean, that's exactly what Joe Carlos Sara was saying.
• 32:18
  He's saying the exact same thing.
• 32:19
  He's never seen things as bearish as they are right now.
• 32:24
  And I think what would like where that bearishness is coming
• 32:27
  from is the uncertainty in the markets right now.
• 32:32
  People don't know what is going to happen.
• 32:36
  And I would say that is bullish, ladies and gentlemen, that it is
• 32:40
  extremely bullish because for the last year, for the last two
• 32:44
  years, for the last three years, everyone thought with 100%
• 32:48
  certainty that Bitcoin was just going to go up and to the right
• 32:52
  forever. And now we have uncertainty, we
• 32:55
  have doubt. I mean, I, I, I pulled you guys
• 32:58
  that, that post by Joe Carlisari.
• 33:01
  Very, very strong post. Ladies and gentlemen, like check
• 33:04
  this out. During my time in Bitcoin since
• 33:07
  2015, sentiment has never been worse in my opinion.
• 33:11
  Today I talked to a friend who has held since 2017.
• 33:15
  He's seriously considering selling his entire position 7
• 33:19
  figure position. He didn't even think about
• 33:21
  selling in 2022 at the FTX bottom.
• 33:24
  This really feels different. This is what I'm talking about
• 33:27
  with the sentiment. But where is that sentiment
• 33:29
  coming from? That sentiment is coming from
• 33:32
  uncertainty because you can't look at Bitcoins previous
• 33:36
  historical performances and how its structures and its blow off
• 33:40
  tops in the four year cycles and accurately map out what you
• 33:45
  think is going to happen into the future.
• 33:47
  I would say that is fantastic. Bring on that uncertainty
• 33:52
  because that uncertainty is what we had in 2017.
• 33:56
  It's what we had in 2013. If you guys remember, it was not
• 34:00
  a sure bet that Bitcoin was guaranteed to win.
• 34:04
  It was not guaranteed to win. None of this was guaranteed, and
• 34:09
  because none of this was guaranteed, it created
• 34:12
  asymmetric opportunity. So I would say bring on the
• 34:17
  uncertainty. I like it.
• 34:20
  I didn't like, and I said this in the beginning of the year.
• 34:22
  If you guys go back, I bet you can, you can catch me saying
• 34:25
  this. I said it in January and
• 34:27
  February of the beginning of 2025.
• 34:29
  I said, you know, the only thing that has me a little bit
• 34:32
  skittish and it has a little bit has me a little bit worried
• 34:35
  heading into the end of the year, it's the fact that
• 34:38
  everyone and their mother believes that Q3 and Q4 are
• 34:43
  going to be bullish and markets do the exact opposite of what
• 34:48
  the consensus thinks. And you know what the consensus
• 34:52
  thinks. Right now, the consensus is
• 34:53
  confused. The consensus has no idea.
• 34:57
  Even these institutional reports are telling you it could go
• 35:00
  either way. We just don't know.
• 35:03
  I love that. Bring on the uncertainty because
• 35:06
  the uncertainty is opportunity. It creates asymmetric
• 35:10
  opportunity because if everyone thought this was a sure bet,
• 35:14
  then they wouldn't be selling right?
• 35:15
  Right now, right? They wouldn't be selling, they
• 35:18
  would just be buying more Bitcoin, right?
• 35:20
  So I would say bring it on. I think this year we saw a
• 35:23
  massive amount of cell pressure from these OG's.
• 35:26
  I've been holding on for 15, you know, for 15 years, since
• 35:30
  Bitcoin's inception, and they're selling a lot of this Bitcoin.
• 35:34
  I don't know why, I don't know what the reason is, but I'm glad
• 35:38
  the uncertainty is back in the markets because this is what the
• 35:41
  early days of Bitcoin felt like. This is what 2017 felt like.
• 35:44
  2021, not so much. This is what 2016 felt like.
• 35:48
  It wasn't a sure thing that Bitcoin was going to win.
• 35:51
  And that uncertainty is starting to creep back in, right?
• 35:54
  It's starting to creep back in where the people like, can
• 35:56
  Bitcoin go higher? Are, are these diminishing
• 35:59
  returns that bad? Are we only going to get to 250
• 36:03
  K by 20-30? Like that sounds depressing.
• 36:06
  You, you start to people start to look for opportunities
• 36:10
  elsewhere. Like the fact that gold
• 36:13
  outperformed Bitcoin this year. Gold is up 60% this year, Silver
• 36:18
  even more, right? The fact that those things
• 36:22
  happened, the fact that the S&P 500 outperformed Bitcoin, the
• 36:26
  fact that Bitcoin is down 6% the year, you know what that does?
• 36:31
  It causes people to question Bitcoin, it causes people, it
• 36:35
  shakes people's conviction in Bitcoin.
• 36:38
  It causes people to sell and to look for opportunities
• 36:41
  elsewhere. And when those types of things
• 36:44
  happen, that's when Bitcoin effing rips.
• 36:48
  So bring this uncertainty. I absolutely love it.
• 36:52
  And this brings me back to the good old days and in the good
• 36:55
  old days, the only thing that I had to tell you guys, I couldn't
• 36:59
  tell you guys and look to look at charts historically and say,
• 37:03
  listen, guys, it's going to go back up.
• 37:04
  Look at the four year cycle. The four year cycle theory
• 37:07
  wasn't even a thing. The Plan B didn't even he wasn't
• 37:10
  even in the scene. All you had was Andreas and Max
• 37:13
  and Stacey videos. It's the only thing you guys
• 37:15
  had, right? But the only the, the thing that
• 37:18
  made me so certain that Bitcoin was going to win back then.
• 37:21
  And those, those first, those, those basic principles and those
• 37:26
  basic characteristics have not changed.
• 37:29
  What are they? Bitcoin is the best money the
• 37:32
  world has ever seen. There's only 21 million Bitcoin.
• 37:36
  Bitcoin is backed by the largest decentralized the computing
• 37:41
  network the world has ever seen. Like those characteristics alone
• 37:50
  should tell you what Bitcoin is. Bitcoin is freedom.
• 37:54
  Try sending a wire. Try sending a Bitcoin
• 37:56
  transaction. Try sending a wire for a large
• 37:58
  amount. Try sending a Bitcoin
• 37:59
  transaction. Tell me which is better.
• 38:01
  You'll literally no you'll, you'll literally come to the
• 38:04
  conclusion, OK, I know who's going to win.
• 38:07
  So again, pay attention to the core characteristics.
• 38:11
  Remember why we're here. We're here to fix the money, fix
• 38:14
  the world and Bitcoin is is here to do that.
• 38:17
  And if you pay attention to that, everything will take care
• 38:20
  of itself and the price the the the current price action, the
• 38:24
  medium term price action is just noise.
• 38:27
  That's my opinion anyways, guys, it's going to be a fantastic
• 38:30
  show. Thank you guys so much for
• 38:32
  tuning in smash the like button. If you guys are enjoying the
• 38:35
  show, we're going to start it. We have tons to cover.
• 38:37
  I have a clip also too, more bullish by the way, of Michael
• 38:42
  Saylor talking about how if strategy accumulates 5% of the
• 38:46
  Bitcoin supply, it can get to $1 million per coin.
• 38:50
  And if they accumulate up to 7% of the Bitcoin supply, it can
• 38:53
  get to $10 million per coin. That is crazy.
• 38:56
  So we're gonna play that clip. And then also during the news
• 39:00
  segment, I got some things lined up for you guys, some bullish
• 39:03
  news heading into 2026 regarding the Clarity Act.
• 39:08
  And I have an amazing article written by Shinobi from Bitcoin
• 39:11
  magazine. And he's talking about the
• 39:13
  involvement of of Wall Street and how the involvement of Wall
• 39:18
  Street has fundamentally changed the game and if it's a good
• 39:21
  thing, if it's a bad thing. So it's going to be an
• 39:23
  incredible show, guys. If you guys are enjoying it so
• 39:25
  far, make sure to smash that like button.
• 39:28
  Consider subscribing. We're going to be right back in
• 39:31
  just a SEC. Today's episode is brought to
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  you by Bitcoin, Well infinite. If you're a serious Bitcoin
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  At the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is $87,780.
• 42:26
  Block height 929,150 5 market cap 1.75 trillion Bitcoin versus
• 42:34
  gold market cap 5.5% decline from all time high -30.4%.
• 42:40
  So everybody has their panties in a bunch sailors preparing a
• 42:44
  cash position. You know, people are saying the
• 42:47
  four year cycle, we're heading into a bear market in 2026 and
• 42:51
  at the end of the day, we're only down 30%, right?
• 42:54
  Again, this is, this is interesting, ladies and
• 42:58
  gentlemen, this is very, very, very interesting because again,
• 43:01
  you and, and Joe, Carly, Joe Carlos already said it.
• 43:04
  I, I feel that sentiment as well.
• 43:06
  It is very weird that the fear and greed index is all the way
• 43:11
  to the fear side. Even though we never hit the
• 43:16
  peak, even though we never hit this crazy all time high, we
• 43:19
  barely broke all time high. In fact, if you adjust the all
• 43:23
  time high for inflation, we really didn't go that much
• 43:27
  higher than 2021. It would it like if you adjust
• 43:31
  Bitcoin for inflation, the US dollar price for Bitcoin for
• 43:33
  inflation and you compare the 2021 peak and the the 2025 peak,
• 43:40
  it really in percentage terms, it really wasn't that big of an
• 43:43
  increase, right? So again, could this be
• 43:46
  diminishing returns? It could be that Bitcoin is a
• 43:48
  big a big asset. It could be all those things.
• 43:51
  But again, I'm going to go back to what I was referencing in the
• 43:54
  beginning of the show. Remember the basic first
• 43:58
  principles. Bitcoin is the best money the
• 44:00
  world has ever seen. There's only 21 million of which
• 44:03
  four millionaire lost. It is absolutely scarce,
• 44:07
  censorship resistant. It is backed by the largest
• 44:11
  decentralized computing network all around the world that are
• 44:13
  consistent, consistently hashing 24/7, right?
• 44:18
  So again, if you look at the basic characteristics of
• 44:21
  Bitcoin, if you look at what Bitcoin has done, it's never
• 44:27
  been better than it is today. Like if you told me like check
• 44:31
  to like just common sense. We made all we made.
• 44:35
  We were at 100K last year with a antagonistic administration.
• 44:42
  And you told me that you had a pro Bitcoin president that went
• 44:45
  on X and said I wanna make the United States the Bitcoin
• 44:49
  capital of the world. And you told me that he owned
• 44:55
  the 6th largest Bitcoin treasury company.
• 44:57
  And you told me that his media company bought like $40 million
• 45:00
  worth of Bitcoin yesterday. And you told me that Wall Street
• 45:05
  banks are interested in buying Bitcoin.
• 45:07
  There's a picture of Michael Saylor at the JP Morgan
• 45:09
  building, right? If you told me that all of those
• 45:12
  things were to happen in 2025, right?
• 45:16
  Compare like the fundamentals have never been stronger.
• 45:20
  So what could be happening? I think it's I think it's Wall
• 45:24
  Street shenanigans. I think it's a combination of
• 45:26
  Wall Street shenanigans and OG selling.
• 45:29
  I think that's what's happening. And because this has never
• 45:32
  happened before, because there's nothing to compare it to, it
• 45:35
  creates uncertainty and doubt. And that's why we are where we
• 45:40
  are. That's my opinion, but I could
• 45:42
  be wrong here. Anyways, moving on to today's
• 45:44
  clip. Let's check it out.
• 45:45
  Here's Michael Saylor talking about $1 million Bitcoin, $10
• 45:49
  million Bitcoin, and what are the conditions in order for
• 45:52
  Bitcoin to hit those levels. We're up to 3.2% of the entire
• 45:59
  supply. It cost us $50 billion to get to
• 46:03
  3.2%. You know, I'm thinking that the
• 46:06
  next $50 billion won't get me 3.2.
• 46:09
  It'll probably get me 1% or less.
• 46:13
  And I'm thinking if I come up with a few 100 billion, I might,
• 46:16
  you know, when what I've said is, is if we get to 5% of the
• 46:21
  network, bitcoins going to be a million a coin.
• 46:24
  If I get to 7 1/2% of the network, it'll be 10 million a
• 46:27
  coin. So think of it as I'm buying
• 46:30
  something getting exponentially more expensive, using
• 46:33
  exponentially more money. And where, where do we top out?
• 46:36
  You know, I, I think we top out between 5 and 7 1/2% and then we
• 46:41
  just exponentially slow down, right.
• 46:45
  And the rest of the network is right now it's, you know, after
• 46:50
  $100 billion of money from BlackRock and 50 billion from
• 46:54
  us, 85% of the Bitcoin is held by the O GS.
• 46:58
  After the next trillion dollars from the big institutions, maybe
• 47:02
  it'll be 75% will be held. By the O GS.
• 47:05
  So it's think of us as powering the network up and we're pushing
• 47:09
  against an exponentially hardening asset.
• 47:14
  And that's the way it should be. Look at 95% percent of the
• 47:18
  bitcoins been mined by the year 2030.
• 47:20
  Five, 99% that last 1% of Bitcoin comes out between the
• 47:25
  year 2035 and the year 2140. It's 100 years to get the last
• 47:30
  1%. And so when we look at it like
• 47:33
  that and we will just be like the little engine that could, we
• 47:38
  will keep, you know, turning the crank.
• 47:42
  There's your bull juice, everyone, because I see somebody
• 47:44
  in the comments, I see people in the comments saying we need Opti
• 47:48
  back. Nikko ain't no bulltard.
• 47:50
  And then we had someone else's. Nikko's getting into his own
• 47:53
  head, letting the negativity get the best of him.
• 47:56
  I don't think so, guys. I completely fundamentally
• 47:58
  disagree with you. I mean, I've laid out the facts,
• 48:01
  guys. It like, look, strategy is
• 48:07
  accumulating a cash position. That's true.
• 48:11
  Sailor could potentially sell Bitcoin if strategies M NAV goes
• 48:16
  under one. That's also true.
• 48:19
  That wasn't the case six months ago, right?
• 48:22
  Like this is not me getting into my own head and saying Oh my
• 48:26
  God, I'm I'm feeling bearish or whatever.
• 48:28
  This is me reading what is happening and forming an opinion
• 48:33
  based on that. And then not to mention the fact
• 48:35
  that I've, I've been doing this for a decade, right?
• 48:39
  Like a third of my life have been doing this, right?
• 48:41
  So again, you start to pick up some things and you start to
• 48:44
  learn to, you start to learn some things and, and you
• 48:46
  remember certain feelings, right?
• 48:48
  But again, I told you guys, I gave that disclaimer in the
• 48:51
  beginning of the show. I said, Hey, listen, this time
• 48:56
  could be different. This time already is different,
• 48:58
  right? So we won't know until Q1 and Q2
• 49:03
  of 2026. That's really what's going to
• 49:05
  let us know if the four year cycle is playing out like it
• 49:08
  always plays out or if this time actually is different.
• 49:12
  But what I can tell you for a fact is that strategy, and this
• 49:16
  is the Yahoo Finance article, not Nikko saying this, that
• 49:19
  strategy themselves are potentially preparing for a
• 49:24
  crypto to use their words, a crypto winter, right.
• 49:28
  So I'm just I'm just reading you don't don't get mad with the
• 49:33
  messenger. I'm just reading you the source
• 49:35
  material. I'm reading you what I'm saying.
• 49:38
  If, if I was just bolt hearted the entire time, guys, like I
• 49:42
  would be doing you a disservice. I want to tell you guys what I
• 49:45
  feel from the heart. I want to tell you guys what I
• 49:47
  feel is the truth. And if I tell you things
• 49:50
  otherwise, just to make you feel better, I would be doing you a
• 49:54
  disservice. I would, I wouldn't be doing my
• 49:56
  job and I honestly couldn't. I couldn't live with myself.
• 49:59
  So I always have to tell you exactly what's on my mind,
• 50:02
  exactly how I feel and what I'm what, what I'm seeing how, how,
• 50:06
  how I'm reading the room. In the beginning of 2025 I saw I
• 50:09
  saw a comment on Rumble I was posting half $1,000,000 Bitcoin
• 50:14
  in a in a picture of Donald Trump's face because I was so
• 50:17
  bullish with the Trump with a pro Bitcoin administration.
• 50:20
  Like how like think about this logic because it makes no sense.
• 50:24
  How can you have Bitcoin outperform a pro Bitcoin
• 50:32
  administration during Operation Choke .2 point O?
• 50:37
  Bitcoin performed better during Operation Choke .2 point O
• 50:42
  during 2023 and 2024 with a hostile administration.
• 50:47
  Then it has performed during a pro Bitcoin administration.
• 50:52
  Like what is the logic in that? There is no logic in that.
• 50:56
  That's why I was so bullish in the beginning of the year.
• 50:58
  I was like, dude, this is going to, this is going to RIP.
• 51:01
  This is awesome. Like all the regulatory hurdles
• 51:03
  have been have been cleared away.
• 51:05
  We don't have to deal with them anymore.
• 51:07
  Now obviously that's not how it played out, but again, don't
• 51:10
  have expectations in the Bitcoin space.
• 51:14
  Stay humble, stock stocks, stay solvent and that's how you win.
• 51:18
  It's a long term accumulation strategy.
• 51:21
  And again, I don't think I've ever seen someone fail doing
• 51:26
  that When they start playing with leverage, when they start
• 51:28
  playing with margin, when they start playing with all those
• 51:30
  things, that's when I see people get wrecked.
• 51:32
  That's when I see people lose a lot of their Bitcoin.
• 51:34
  But if you just stay humble stocks at stay solvent, you're
• 51:37
  going to be just fine. Anyways, guys, let me a
• 51:39
  fantastic show. We still have tons to cover.
• 51:42
  Some bullish news regarding 2026 regarding the CFTC.
• 51:48
  SEC Chairman Atkins signals the crypto market structure bill is
• 51:53
  close, as close to passing. Again, what is he referencing?
• 51:57
  He's referencing the Clarity Act.
• 51:59
  Again, there was two major pieces of legislation that we
• 52:02
  are looking at. Again, this is all thanks to the
• 52:06
  Republicans big win in the House and the Senate and the
• 52:09
  presidency and the executive branch.
• 52:10
  We had the Genius Act, which was passed earlier this year.
• 52:13
  You guys remember the picture of Elizabeth Warren with her hands
• 52:16
  on her hips all angry and stuff. And then you have the Clarity
• 52:20
  Act, which looks like it's going to pass in Q1 and Q2 of 2020, of
• 52:26
  2026, which again, is very bullish from a regulatory
• 52:29
  perspective. And the Clarity Act actually has
• 52:32
  more to do with Bitcoin than the Genius Act.
• 52:35
  The Genius Act just focused on stablecoin.
• 52:38
  So overall, very good news from a regulatory perspective.
• 52:41
  But like you guys, I'm twiddling my thumbs and I'm think I
• 52:45
  remember I saw Trump's speech at Bitcoin 2020.
• 52:48
  I remember, I remember, I saw it.
• 52:51
  I saw it. And he kept all his promises.
• 52:54
  He freed Ross, he ended Operation Choke .2 Point O, he
• 52:58
  did all these things. But what was the key promise
• 53:02
  that he made, which is I think the most important part was that
• 53:06
  Bitcoin is gonna moon. Bitcoin hasn't mooned yet.
• 53:09
  President Trump, I think that's what we're all waiting for.
• 53:11
  That's the that's the most basic thing, right?
• 53:14
  And again, you could say, and I saw this, I saw this comment
• 53:18
  earlier, you can say that his administration has been getting
• 53:21
  sabotaged by an antagonistic Fed.
• 53:25
  And you could say that they have been playing games with the
• 53:28
  interest rates, right? You can, you can make those
• 53:30
  cases. You can, you can make all those
• 53:32
  cases, very strong cases, by the way.
• 53:34
  But anyhow, anyways, guys, next year he's not going to have that
• 53:37
  excuse because he's going to appoint a new Fed chair and that
• 53:41
  and, and I'm assuming the Fed chair that he's going to appoint
• 53:43
  is going to be a, a, a pro his agenda, right?
• 53:48
  So anyways, guys, it's going to be an incredible show.
• 53:50
  We still have tons to cover. Also, an incredible article by
• 53:53
  Shinobi basically talking about the involvement of Wall Street,
• 53:59
  right? So anyways, and I also did I
• 54:01
  play the clip. I don't think I played the clip
• 54:03
  for you guys. Anyways, we're going to be right
• 54:06
  back in just a bit. I want to give a shout out to
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• 57:33
  today. All right, everybody, let's jump
• 57:35
  into today's story. So what am I talking about?
• 57:40
  David Sachs says Clarity Act markup set up for January Who is
• 57:44
  David Sachs? David Sachs is the AI and
• 57:47
  Cryptozar, White House AI and AIAI and bitcoins are David
• 57:52
  Sachs said. Senate committee leaders have
• 57:55
  confirmed a January markup for the Digital Asset Market Clarity
• 57:59
  Act, a market structure bill aimed at setting federal rules
• 58:02
  for digital assets, goes on to say.
• 58:06
  Sacks said he spoke with Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim
• 58:09
  Scott and Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman,
• 58:13
  who confirmed the schedule. We had a great call today with
• 58:16
  Chairman, Senator, with Senator Tim Scott and John Boozman, who
• 58:20
  confirmed that a markup for Clarity Act is coming in
• 58:22
  January. We are closer than ever to
• 58:25
  passing the landmark crypto market structure legislation
• 58:28
  that President Trump has called for.
• 58:30
  Thanks to their leadership, as well as Representative French
• 58:34
  Hill and Congressman IGT, I don't know that Congressman's
• 58:38
  name is in the House. We are closer than ever to
• 58:41
  passing this land landmark crypto.
• 58:44
  The Clarity Act is a bipartisan legislation intended to create a
• 58:47
  regulatory framework for digital assets.
• 58:49
  I also believe it protects self custody, which is fantastic.
• 58:52
  It would clarify jurisdiction between the SEC and the CFTC
• 58:57
  anyways. The Senate Banking Committee has
• 58:59
  previously targeted a December markup but delayed it this week
• 59:03
  till early 2026. The report said Senate Democrats
• 59:06
  held a private meeting to discuss a GOP compromise
• 59:10
  proposal introduced by Scott's team and considered a
• 59:14
  counteroffer CE OS from Citigroup, Bank of America and,
• 59:17
  well, Wells Fargo also met with lawmakers to discuss the
• 59:21
  legislation. That last part, that last
• 59:24
  sentence, if you're, if you're going to take anything from this
• 59:26
  article, I want, I want you to focus on that last sentence
• 59:29
  because that last sentence is the signal.
• 59:31
  CE OS from Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo also met
• 59:36
  with lawmakers to discuss the legislation.
• 59:40
  That is the signal. That is the sauce.
• 59:43
  Ladies and gentlemen, that means that again, you have major
• 59:46
  banks, which again is confirming what Saylor is saying that 2026
• 59:51
  is the year that major banks come into Bitcoin, come into
• 59:54
  crypto. Why would Citibank, Bank of
• 59:57
  America and Wells Fargo want anything to do with Bitcoin or,
• 1:00:02
  or this legislation if they didn't feel like it affected
• 1:00:05
  them, right? That's another thing.
• 1:00:07
  Another thing I'll say also is, again, I love the fact that it's
• 1:00:10
  bipartisan. If you want a piece of
• 1:00:12
  legislation to survive, you want it to be bipartisan.
• 1:00:16
  The Genius Act was bipartisan. This, this act, the Clarity Act,
• 1:00:19
  it seems like it's going to be bipartisan as well, which is
• 1:00:22
  great because that means that there's longevity there when you
• 1:00:25
  have a. One sided bill, like if it was
• 1:00:28
  only supported by the GOP or if you had an executive executive
• 1:00:33
  order. I don't like executive orders
• 1:00:35
  because executive orders can and will be reversed by the next
• 1:00:39
  president, especially if that next president is from the
• 1:00:43
  opposing party, right? So again, this is very
• 1:00:46
  important. I, I love the fact that genius
• 1:00:48
  act was genius act was passed. You can say Nico, but it has to
• 1:00:52
  do with stable coins. That has nothing to do with
• 1:00:54
  Bitcoin. I'll say stablecoins like Tether
• 1:00:58
  are a Trojan horse for Bitcoin. It gets people exposure to
• 1:01:02
  digital money, basically, right? And then once they get exposure
• 1:01:07
  to digital money, they'll come to the conclusion that Bitcoin
• 1:01:10
  is better money, right? But if you are stuck in the
• 1:01:13
  traditional banking system and you don't have exposure to
• 1:01:15
  digital money, for example, you don't realize how easy it is to
• 1:01:19
  download a wallet and start receiving and sending Tether
• 1:01:24
  right as a dollar equivalent or a dollar placement.
• 1:01:27
  Then you're never going to even consider the idea of thinking,
• 1:01:30
  oh wow, like, you know, Bitcoin is better money.
• 1:01:33
  I could use Bitcoin is actually even is is even easier than the
• 1:01:37
  traditional banking system. Anyhow, moving on to this part,
• 1:01:41
  SEC Chair Paul Atkins signals the crypto structure Bill is
• 1:01:44
  close to passing. And again, this confirms with
• 1:01:47
  the AI and cryptosar is saying as well.
• 1:01:50
  I have the clip. Let's check it out.
• 1:01:52
  You know, there's a market structure bill that's going
• 1:01:54
  through the Clarity Act that was passed by the House.
• 1:01:58
  We'll see where that goes in Congress.
• 1:02:00
  And so I'm hoping that they'll be able to to get that through.
• 1:02:03
  But in the meantime, we and the CFTC will be in RDR, you know,
• 1:02:08
  actively working on harmonizing. So again, he doesn't seem as as
• 1:02:14
  optimistic, doesn't seem as bullish as, as, as the AI and
• 1:02:19
  and crypto czar David Sachs. But I, I was, how do I say this?
• 1:02:26
  I did receive confirmation from people on the hill that they are
• 1:02:32
  optimistic that this will pass also.
• 1:02:36
  And Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, the largest, you know,
• 1:02:39
  crypto exchange on the face of the planet, he also feels very
• 1:02:42
  optimistic that the clarity Act will pass as well.
• 1:02:44
  So again, I think this is this will be one of the biggest
• 1:02:47
  pieces of pro Bitcoin legislation ever passed in the
• 1:02:50
  United States of America. Genius Act was good, but again,
• 1:02:53
  it focused primarily on stable coins.
• 1:02:56
  The Clarity Act is really going to be the first bill that is
• 1:03:00
  going to be focusing on digital assets.
• 1:03:03
  And I believe like part of the clauses in there, part of
• 1:03:05
  legislation is again, protect the right to self custody.
• 1:03:08
  At the end of the day, you know, the bill can change until they
• 1:03:12
  pass it. So we're going to stay on top of
• 1:03:14
  it. We're going to look into the
• 1:03:15
  details anyways during the culture segment for you guys.
• 1:03:19
  We have a lot to cover. Shinobi wrote an incredible
• 1:03:22
  article for Bitcoin Magazine talking about, you know, how
• 1:03:26
  things have changed since then since Wall Street has come onto
• 1:03:30
  the scene. But before we get into that, I
• 1:03:32
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  All right, everybody, let's get to the culture.
• 1:04:38
  We have tons to talk about. We're going to be right back in
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  just a bit. I want to give a shout out to
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  today. All right, everybody, let's jump
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  into today's article. What am I talking about?
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  Here's an article written by Shinobi.
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  Wall Street is Bitcoin's biggest threat, not arbitrary data.
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  He goes on to say Wall Street has unequivocally arrived.
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  The long-awaited phase shift is here.
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  We have discussed for years what this time period and shift will
• 1:08:22
  be like, many cheering it on in anticipation of the economic
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  implications and shockwave it would it would cause in terms of
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  liquidity and price movement. Guess what?
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  We never got that. In the last few years, it has
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  undeniably, undeniably come to dominate the narrative This is
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  true, shaping dialogue and focus across the entire ecosystem.
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  Where before large communities of people would spring up around
• 1:08:47
  a technology, technological innovations, or philosophical
• 1:08:50
  schools of thought on how Bitcoin can possibly shape the
• 1:08:53
  direction of the world in a time of tumultuous change and
• 1:08:56
  metaphorical ground shifting out from under us.
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  Now the cultural psyche is driven by the phenomenon of
• 1:09:03
  treasury companies. So I've been telling you guys
• 1:09:05
  all year, this is an entire wave of recent entrance into the
• 1:09:09
  space who have never held their own keys, never directly and
• 1:09:12
  interacted with the protocol themselves.
• 1:09:15
  They have simply acquired proxies such as treasury
• 1:09:18
  companies, equity or ETFs. This is a massive cultural
• 1:09:22
  shift. This is a massive cultural and
• 1:09:26
  philosophical and logistical shift for the entire ecosystem.
• 1:09:30
  It is not going to wind itself back.
• 1:09:32
  This is a new presence and a new attitude that we are going to
• 1:09:36
  have to confront and it's here to stay.
• 1:09:39
  So what are the implications of that?
• 1:09:41
  Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer system.
• 1:09:43
  It's very essence in nature is defined by people who choose to
• 1:09:46
  participate directly in the system itself, by those who do
• 1:09:50
  interface with the protocol directly, who do not resort to
• 1:09:54
  trad FIRE wrappers such as ETF products and equity and holding
• 1:09:57
  companies. It is one giant intersubjective
• 1:10:01
  hallucination manifested through and verified with software.
• 1:10:05
  So what does it mean when a that a massive section of the
• 1:10:08
  population who chooses to interact with a with it
• 1:10:11
  financially avoid ever participating in that
• 1:10:14
  hallucination themselves? What does that mean for its
• 1:10:17
  nature, it's functioning? That is very much an existential
• 1:10:21
  question and one that we are all going to have to grapple with
• 1:10:26
  over the coming years. Bitcoin is for anyone.
• 1:10:29
  I love how you said anyone, because I don't.
• 1:10:31
  I don't agree with the Bitcoin is for everyone.
• 1:10:33
  I agree with the Bitcoin is for anyone.
• 1:10:36
  And there is nothing we can do to stop people from using it,
• 1:10:39
  whatever fashion they choose to do.
• 1:10:41
  So no matter what, no matter what the wider implications of
• 1:10:45
  those people's choices might be, the nature of Bitcoin, the
• 1:10:49
  consensus rules that nodes enforce, is defined by those who
• 1:10:52
  actually engage in economic activity on the network.
• 1:10:56
  In its most abstract sense, Bitcoin is just a system
• 1:10:59
  composed of people just doing things, and the only reason that
• 1:11:03
  it is a singular, coherent system rather than a random
• 1:11:07
  collection of individuals doing very different and incompatible
• 1:11:10
  things, is because of the economic incentive to do the
• 1:11:13
  same thing. Think of it in a way, in some
• 1:11:16
  ways as similar to a black That black hole forms in the 1st
• 1:11:19
  place after reaching a point of critical mass, after which it
• 1:11:23
  literally implodes on itself and the resulting gravitational
• 1:11:26
  force begins pulling everything around it, increasing its mass
• 1:11:30
  and expanding the radius in which things are sucked into its
• 1:11:34
  dark mall. The incentive of voluntary of
• 1:11:37
  the incentive to voluntary chew to voluntarily choose to
• 1:11:41
  participate in one particular set of rules over another is the
• 1:11:44
  black hole. Bitcoin and it's gravitational
• 1:11:47
  pull is direct is directly proportional to the economic
• 1:11:50
  mass of that system as it exists today.
• 1:11:53
  Unlike a black hole though, it is not truly a singular thing.
• 1:11:57
  Rather, it is a number of different things all holding
• 1:12:00
  themselves together to emulate being a singular thing.
• 1:12:04
  Unlike a black hole, these entities can choose to defy the
• 1:12:06
  incentives to remain together, or follow counter incentives
• 1:12:10
  against doing so, and enforce or follow different sets of rules.
• 1:12:14
  The reason this does not frequently happen at scale, such
• 1:12:17
  as the fork of Bitcoin Cash in 2017, is the complexity of
• 1:12:21
  coordinating all of those individual entities switching to
• 1:12:25
  the same thing at the same time so as to maintain the same
• 1:12:29
  collective gravitational force as they would have under the
• 1:12:32
  previous rules. So what happens when those
• 1:12:35
  number of entities start shrinking?
• 1:12:37
  What happens when they condense and combine and you wind up with
• 1:12:41
  fewer and fewer larger ones? That complexity of coordination
• 1:12:45
  starts getting less compact. Plex centralization is
• 1:12:50
  efficient, but it is poison to Bitcoin. 100% correct.
• 1:12:56
  We've been harping on this. We've been beating the battle
• 1:12:59
  drum. We've been saying this all
• 1:13:01
  effing year, ladies and gentlemen, Bitcoin treasury
• 1:13:06
  company. If you want exposure to it,
• 1:13:07
  great. If you want exposure to an ETF,
• 1:13:09
  great. But does it replace Bitcoin in
• 1:13:12
  self custody? Absolutely not.
• 1:13:15
  If you want Bitcoin to succeed, you want to take self custody of
• 1:13:20
  your Bitcoin. You want to interact with the
• 1:13:23
  Bitcoin network? You want to run your own node?
• 1:13:26
  Get yourself a *9. Literally, there's a link in the
• 1:13:28
  video description. Run yourself a node.
• 1:13:30
  It's never been easier to run a Bitcoin node than it is today.
• 1:13:35
  If you're not taking self custody of your Bitcoin, you're
• 1:13:38
  not participating in the Bitcoin network.
• 1:13:40
  And the Bitcoin network will fail if not enough individuals
• 1:13:46
  are actively using it because, as Shinobi pointed out, that's
• 1:13:50
  what aligns the incentives. Like bitcoins incentives aren't
• 1:13:55
  aligned because it's this happy kumbaya.
• 1:13:57
  Bitcoins incentives are aligned because people feel like they're
• 1:14:01
  economically incentivized to play by the same rules.
• 1:14:05
  But if you have a massive player like BlackRock that is holding
• 1:14:10
  all this Bitcoin on behalf of their clients, let's just say
• 1:14:13
  they say, hey, you know what? Actually, we have to start
• 1:14:16
  censoring certain Bitcoin transactions like you can see a
• 1:14:21
  potential fork coming down the road right?
• 1:14:24
  So how do you fight against that?
• 1:14:26
  How do you stand up against that?
• 1:14:28
  Well, you want individuals holding Bitcoin in self custody,
• 1:14:33
  and this is how you win anyways, ladies and gentlemen, that was
• 1:14:36
  simply Bitcoin live for December 23rd, 2025.
• 1:14:39
  If you guys enjoyed today's episode, make sure to smash that
• 1:14:43
  like button consider subscribing.
• 1:14:45
  I'm going to be holding it down solo this week.
• 1:14:47
  I hope you guys enjoyed today's episode.
• 1:14:49
  We're going to be having Luke as a Co host who's joining us, of
• 1:14:52
  course, Sophie and I'm going to be doing another another solo
• 1:14:55
  show as well. So again, guys, love you all
• 1:14:58
  appreciate you all. We wouldn't be here without you
• 1:15:01
  guys again. Smash the like button, consider
• 1:15:04
  subscribing, share this video with your friends, and of
• 1:15:07
  course, we'll be back tomorrow for a brand new episode of
• 1:15:10
  Simply Bitcoin Live. Today's episode was brought to
• 1:15:14
  you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
• 1:15:17
  mission to enable financial independence.