Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Week 4 Leverage Lane | September 27, 2025 | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS
Transcript
- 0:04Speaker 1: All systems going clear, the lift up. What's up everyone?
- 0:36Speaker 1: Tyler Tamberline here aka Totag and Tambo back for another edition,
- 0:40Speaker 1: the second edition of Leverage Lane. Here with my guy
- 0:43Speaker 1: Alex Blickel. We're gonna break down everything for week four.
- 0:46Speaker 1: Thank you guys all for the feedback. In week one
- 0:48Speaker 1: it was a you know, I guess not week one
- 0:50Speaker 1: launch week. Last week week three where we brought the
- 0:53Speaker 1: show to Fruition. We're super excited about it. The comments
- 0:56Speaker 1: were phenomenal. I love them all. I know Alex you
- 0:58Speaker 1: got a bunch of them as well, a bunch of DM.
- 1:00Speaker 1: But just to give a quick breakdown of it, we're
- 1:01Speaker 1: gonna break it down the same as last week. We've
- 1:04Speaker 1: got ownership likely in ways you've never heard it talked about.
- 1:07Speaker 1: Alex and I. We've been talking pre show and prepping
- 1:08Speaker 1: for this. There's some really good topics we're gonna go
- 1:11Speaker 1: over today. Then we're gonna make another stop down Leverage
- 1:13Speaker 1: Lane on how to leverage the common build, so player combinations,
- 1:17Speaker 1: game stacks, different things like that. Much different slate this week, too,
- 1:20Speaker 1: not just one fifty plus point game in the afternoon,
- 1:23Speaker 1: so more combinations, more game stacks, more things to talk about,
- 1:26Speaker 1: and then of course at the end, once we've made
- 1:28Speaker 1: our travels, we need to get through that stuff first.
- 1:30Speaker 1: But we will land at the light at the end
- 1:32Speaker 1: of the lane, where Alex and I will give a
- 1:34Speaker 1: different take each on how we're going about handling this
- 1:36Speaker 1: week in single entry three Max, how you can apply
- 1:39Speaker 1: it to some of those tournaments where you're playing one
- 1:41Speaker 1: lineup or less lineups than all the other. Mme talk
- 1:44Speaker 1: throughout the week. But the last thing, and I'll bring
- 1:46Speaker 1: you in Alex on this one is Alex I tease this,
- 1:49Speaker 1: but he also said he's going to try and convince
- 1:52Speaker 1: me on playing Patrick Mahomes after you guys know, I've
- 1:56Speaker 1: been hashtag never Mahomes for over one hundred plus slates,
- 2:00Speaker 1: and he says he's gonna try and convince me on
- 2:01Speaker 1: this one. Alex, what's going on?
- 2:02Speaker 2: Man?
- 2:03Speaker 1: Excited to be back here with you.
- 2:04Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gonna be a really fun show.
- 2:06Speaker 2: I got Ryder cup on in the background, so we're
- 2:10Speaker 2: at a very fun point in the in the week
- 2:12Speaker 2: for sure. And yeah, this, I've been dead with you
- 2:16Speaker 2: on this Mahome stuff. I don't think I've played him
- 2:19Speaker 2: on a main slate since Tyreek Hill was still cheap,
- 2:23Speaker 2: but it could change this week, and at the very
- 2:26Speaker 2: least I think I might play the afternoon slate just
- 2:28Speaker 2: so I can have on the home sack there. But
- 2:30Speaker 2: basically where I'll start with this is I'm just gonna
- 2:33Speaker 2: ask you, like, what are the reasons why you haven't
- 2:35Speaker 2: been on mahomes all? Because I'm guessing that you and
- 2:38Speaker 2: I have at the same reasons, and my eventual point
- 2:40Speaker 2: is going to be that I don't think those reasons
- 2:42Speaker 2: apply this week.
- 2:43Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think you know, for anybody that knows
- 2:45Speaker 1: or follows it, the most common thing has been it's
- 2:47Speaker 1: it was always on classic slates. I thought, you know,
- 2:49Speaker 1: great and Showdown. He's won me tickets to King of
- 2:52Speaker 1: the Beach back in the day and things like that.
- 2:54Speaker 1: In Showdown and smaller slate, sure, but on the main
- 2:57Speaker 1: slate just too many options. Now, I know you're probably
- 2:59Speaker 1: gonna get to some of the stuff. I know he's running
- 3:01Speaker 1: more this year. That wasn't always the case for sure,
- 3:04Speaker 1: on top of the fact that he used to spread
- 3:06Speaker 1: it out across seven to ten different receivers. I remember
- 3:08Speaker 1: showing game logs at the end of the games being
- 3:10Speaker 1: like posting you guys still playing this guy, like how
- 3:12Speaker 1: you playing wide receiver Roulette with him? Yes, you knew
- 3:15Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey, And then people would say that. And there
- 3:17Speaker 1: also was price discrepancy's further back then too, where we
- 3:19Speaker 1: used to have like a seventy eight hundred dollars Kelsey
- 3:22Speaker 1: and it's like, well that really has to pay off
- 3:25Speaker 1: in order for that to be something as well. So
- 3:27Speaker 1: just so many reasons along those lines. Off I'm just
- 3:29Speaker 1: gonna laugh quickly though. I know there's a lot of
- 3:31Speaker 1: golf fans that follow both you and I. This show
- 3:34Speaker 1: might go longer than the Ryder Cup the way that
- 3:35Speaker 1: the US is playing right now. Not quite, but you
- 3:38Speaker 1: get what I'm saying. It's been a bad scene. And yeah,
- 3:41Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be some more unpacked suitcases for
- 3:43Speaker 1: mister Keigan Bradley based on the current Ryder Cup status.
- 3:46Speaker 1: But yeah, I'll let you rebuttal that, and then yeah,
- 3:48Speaker 1: take us into sort of what you were gonna say
- 3:49Speaker 1: about Mahomes.
- 3:50Speaker 3: No, I agree with the Ryder Cup stuff, and I
- 3:52Speaker 3: will say European success is good for my DraftKings lamp,
- 3:56Speaker 3: so I'm not posed to it this week, but it's
- 4:00Speaker 3: as Mahomes goes.
- 4:00Speaker 2: The only thing I'll add is, over the past couple
- 4:03Speaker 2: of years, especially the Chiefs offense has been extremely willing,
- 4:08Speaker 2: a lot like Philadelphia right now, to just say, you
- 4:11Speaker 2: know what, we're going to play the game that's in
- 4:13Speaker 2: front of us. We're gonna do almost like the least
- 4:17Speaker 2: amount that we have to do to win. And that's
- 4:20Speaker 2: not because they're just like saving it for the playoffs.
- 4:22Speaker 2: There's a lot of people talk about a lot of
- 4:23Speaker 2: it is just risk aversion, leaning into their defense and saying,
- 4:26Speaker 2: you know what, if what you're giving us is slow,
- 4:29Speaker 2: patient drive, so we're only picking up eight yards at
- 4:32Speaker 2: a time, we'll take that. We'll keep your offense off
- 4:34Speaker 2: the field, and then we'll dominate you defensively. And so consequently,
- 4:38Speaker 2: like Mahomes hasn't had to do anything offensively, he's had
- 4:40Speaker 2: no incentive to push the ball down field. But their
- 4:44Speaker 2: defense hasn't been nearly as good so far this year,
- 4:46Speaker 2: and they're playing a Baltimore team that for the past
- 4:48Speaker 2: few seasons has been like historically good offensively. So the
- 4:52Speaker 2: incentive I think is going to be there to push
- 4:53Speaker 2: the ball downfield. This week they get it save your
- 4:55Speaker 2: Worthy back taepwon. Thornton has been a very good deeffret
- 4:59Speaker 2: for them. The only thing I am kind of hesitant
- 5:02Speaker 2: about at this point is not knowing what Thornton snaps,
- 5:05Speaker 2: not knowing what Worthy snaps are going to look like.
- 5:08Speaker 1: Though.
- 5:08Speaker 2: The worst case scenario is Worthy comes back, replaces Thornton,
- 5:11Speaker 2: and now they're giving Worthy a bunch of short targets
- 5:13Speaker 2: instead of the deep targets that Thornton was getting, and
- 5:16Speaker 2: there is no explosion of the offense.
- 5:18Speaker 3: The best case scenario, though, is you now.
- 5:21Speaker 2: Have two incredibly fast guys in Thornton and Worthy on
- 5:25Speaker 2: the field and they're throwing the ball deep throughout the game.
- 5:28Speaker 2: If that happens, and they're in a game script where
- 5:31Speaker 2: they have to come back against Baltimore, Baltimore team that's
- 5:34Speaker 2: allowing a lot of explosive plays. They've been the best
- 5:38Speaker 2: matchup so far this season for wide receiver ones. They
- 5:40Speaker 2: were a great matchup for wide receiver ones last year
- 5:42Speaker 2: as well. Now you could be getting chuck plays left
- 5:44Speaker 2: and right to Worthy and Thornton and Mahomes could actually
- 5:47Speaker 2: have that like two hundred and two undred and fifty yard
- 5:49Speaker 2: first half that we were so accustomed to seeing back
- 5:51Speaker 2: in the day.
- 5:52Speaker 1: Yeah, it is interesting. I mean, the other thing I
- 5:54Speaker 1: think would be on a lot of people's mind is
- 5:56Speaker 1: that literally everybody could run on the Baltimore Ravens last
- 6:00Speaker 1: week and it just continued throughout the game. It didn't
- 6:02Speaker 1: really matter. Anytime they had a chance to stomp it
- 6:04Speaker 1: or or put a stop to it, it just didn't happen.
- 6:06Speaker 1: And again, very small sample in that specific note, but
- 6:09Speaker 1: it feels like teams can sort of run all over
- 6:11Speaker 1: these guys. Mike Spencer says this too, and like this
- 6:13Speaker 1: is just an added note for those that aren't falling,
- 6:15Speaker 1: wonder why we're starting here, why this is even a thing.
- 6:17Speaker 1: This is not like just some takes or some chiefs
- 6:20Speaker 1: hate or something like that. Mahomes has been a phenomenal quarterback.
- 6:23Speaker 1: When we dig in and the level that we're playing
- 6:24Speaker 1: at in the stakes and everything that comes, all things considered,
- 6:27Speaker 1: we're talking about digging into like literally being on the
- 6:30Speaker 1: Millie Maker one in the last like ninety nine or
- 6:32Speaker 1: one hundred plus slates on main slates, he just had
- 6:35Speaker 1: was never needed in that instance. He's had some really
- 6:37Speaker 1: good games. He's been a phenomenal MVP of the Super Bowl,
- 6:41Speaker 1: et cetera. All these different factors winning championships. That's great,
- 6:43Speaker 1: and that's a you know, no different, to be honest
- 6:45Speaker 1: than almost the Brady line of thought. It's not like
- 6:47Speaker 1: Brady was always the best. I think in Tampa Bay.
- 6:50Speaker 1: He had some really good setups for daily Fantasy, but typically,
- 6:54Speaker 1: you know, that's not what you're seeing anymore. And we
- 6:56Speaker 1: still have enough quarterbacks that are in the five K
- 6:58Speaker 1: range that run score with their legs, do different things
- 7:01Speaker 1: like that, and you kind of get and then guys
- 7:02Speaker 1: like Jalen Hurt So I think we'll talk about later
- 7:04Speaker 1: on the show as well. So I think you made
- 7:07Speaker 1: some really good points. I don't know if it'll sell
- 7:10Speaker 1: me to play him still, but I do think, like
- 7:11Speaker 1: you said, there is at least some interest there. And
- 7:14Speaker 1: that game, by the way, is really just not being
- 7:16Speaker 1: talked about at all this week. And we'll get to
- 7:18Speaker 1: that too when we get into it, you know. Shout
- 7:21Speaker 1: out to everybody here. Michael says, can't wait for my
- 7:22Speaker 1: new favorite show. Morning guys, Good morning, appreciate all you guys.
- 7:26Speaker 1: And then Sean had said he seems he has turned
- 7:28Speaker 1: into a running quarterback That's what I was saying earlier,
- 7:30Speaker 1: like he's definitely running a little bit more, but tough,
- 7:33Speaker 1: tough to say how it goes. So the chats asking
- 7:36Speaker 1: about this rock in the background, Actually no, And that's
- 7:39Speaker 1: the challenging part. So if you if there's any slip
- 7:41Speaker 1: ups on the mic or like as far as like
- 7:42Speaker 1: the audio quality or anything goes, I'm still not in
- 7:46Speaker 1: too tambaa HQ. I'm hoping to be there by the
- 7:48Speaker 1: middle of this week upcoming. That's going to change a
- 7:50Speaker 1: couple of things I'll post out about later. But it's
- 7:52Speaker 1: it's unfortunate, but it's just the way it goes. I'm
- 7:55Speaker 1: I've let it just, you know, sort of run off
- 7:57Speaker 1: the other side here Alex where it's like, I'm over
- 7:59Speaker 1: it now. It's been long enough. It is what it is.
- 8:01Speaker 1: You can't really complain. You just got to deal with it.
- 8:03Speaker 1: Nobody cares, worre harder. We move on and I'll get
- 8:05Speaker 1: in there. I think it'll be by Wednesday now it
- 8:07Speaker 1: looks like, but yeah, there you go. All right, let's
- 8:09Speaker 1: get into this. The first thing we talk about is ownership,
- 8:13Speaker 1: and you set me over for some stuff. Pre show.
- 8:15Speaker 1: We talked through some of the running backs, the tight ends, quarterbacks.
- 8:18Speaker 1: So let's just do do you want to do this week?
- 8:20Speaker 1: Like again getting more format to this and trying to
- 8:22Speaker 1: stick within the umbrella of the lane stop that we're at.
- 8:25Speaker 1: Do you want to do like a quick position by
- 8:27Speaker 1: position and just give some ideas and then we can
- 8:29Speaker 1: relate thoughts because last week we did miss a couple
- 8:31Speaker 1: of guys till later in the show because we didn't
- 8:33Speaker 1: go by position, But do you have thoughts on that?
- 8:36Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind going to position by position. I
- 8:39Speaker 2: don't think it should be the usual thing we do,
- 8:41Speaker 2: because I think the ownership is so connected that it's
- 8:44Speaker 2: worth talking about it all at once, like how the
- 8:47Speaker 2: expensive running back chalk affects the wide receiver chalk down
- 8:50Speaker 2: in the value range, things like that, and it's harder
- 8:52Speaker 2: to do that when you're going in position by position.
- 8:54Speaker 2: But this week it's definitely a little bit less connected
- 8:57Speaker 2: than most weeks. I think the thing that we talked
- 8:59Speaker 2: to out pre show is the chalk isn't as strong
- 9:03Speaker 2: this week, and that's because they just across the board.
- 9:07Speaker 2: If you looked at pricing weeks one through three, like
- 9:09Speaker 2: every single position the expensive range and in the value range.
- 9:13Speaker 2: Even guys who stood out is very clearly underpriced, very
- 9:15Speaker 2: clear values. You don't totally get that this week. So
- 9:18Speaker 2: the guys that the field is actually settling on is
- 9:21Speaker 2: twenty to twenty five percent owned or thirty percent owned.
- 9:24Speaker 2: They're not as strong as the guys of equivalent ownership
- 9:26Speaker 2: from the first three weeks from a projection standpoint or
- 9:29Speaker 2: from a ceiling standpoint, like I think that's one of
- 9:32Speaker 2: the themes for me this week is a lot of
- 9:33Speaker 2: the chalco like I don't think they're likely to fail,
- 9:37Speaker 2: but I don't really I'm not afraid of getting hurt
- 9:40Speaker 2: by fitting them because they don't so much see a ceiling.
- 9:42Speaker 2: So in that regard, I think the strongest chalk of
- 9:47Speaker 2: the slate is Puka Nakua at wide receiver, and we
- 9:51Speaker 2: can kind of, I guess, start with with wide receivers then,
- 9:54Speaker 2: but po could far and away not just the most popular,
- 9:59Speaker 2: but also Jet's the best. He's five points ahead of
- 10:03Speaker 2: any other wide receiver in our projections over at FT
- 10:05Speaker 2: and fantasy, and the second best Scott's actually his teammate
- 10:08Speaker 2: demonte Adams in projection, so he's gonna be massive chalk
- 10:11Speaker 2: this week, and I think he is deserving of it,
- 10:14Speaker 2: because I mean, he's savaging over like twenty five draftings
- 10:17Speaker 2: points a game without a touchdown through the area, and
- 10:20Speaker 2: I think the touchdowns are gonna come. I don't think
- 10:22Speaker 2: there's any anything to the fact that he hasn't scored
- 10:24Speaker 2: a lot over the last year, year and a half whatever.
- 10:26Speaker 2: So Pooka to me, seems like a really strong play
- 10:29Speaker 2: and he's bringing a lot of colts with him, right.
- 10:31Speaker 2: We talked about it before. It's like Tyler Warren's gonna
- 10:33Speaker 2: be popular Jonathan Taylor. I think there's a decent chance
- 10:36Speaker 2: that Ada and I Mitchell or Josh downs are popular
- 10:39Speaker 2: with no Alex Pearce, and those guys are going to
- 10:41Speaker 2: be played together with Pooka a lot. So the number
- 10:44Speaker 2: one thing for me this week is if I do
- 10:46Speaker 2: play Pooka, I'm definitely not playing any colts.
- 10:49Speaker 1: Yeah, so you're not playing any colts? He then I.
- 10:52Speaker 3: Wouldn't play any colts if I'm playing pook Yeah.
- 10:54Speaker 1: Yeah, what. I think. I'll talk about it more later,
- 10:56Speaker 1: but I think i'd also be comfortable, Like it's one
- 10:58Speaker 1: of those spots where I want to you sort of
- 11:00Speaker 1: run up on top of that because I think people
- 11:02Speaker 1: are just going to play one or the other. And
- 11:03Speaker 1: I think when we get to the combinations later, you'll
- 11:05Speaker 1: see like Warren Puoka is quite popular, but how many
- 11:08Speaker 1: people are playing going back to Danny Dimes or Danny
- 11:10Speaker 1: Dollars with this with a don A Mitchell, with Warren
- 11:14Speaker 1: with Pooka on the run back and with Kieran Williams
- 11:16Speaker 1: and saying like that's the game that you need this week.
- 11:18Speaker 1: So little things like that where I don't think people
- 11:20Speaker 1: are leveling it out as much. The main thing I'd
- 11:22Speaker 1: say is like a quick run through is just because
- 11:24Speaker 1: I think it will tie into when we talk about
- 11:25Speaker 1: how to leverage the common build and how things go
- 11:27Speaker 1: together and the combinations and stuff. Is like quarterback, you're
- 11:30Speaker 1: seeing a lot of Gino Smith, you're seeing some Kleb.
- 11:33Speaker 1: People have already mentioned that in the chat running back
- 11:36Speaker 1: you mentioned it earlier. But we've obviously got some stuff
- 11:38Speaker 1: with Taylor with CMC maybe Scataboo, you know on certain sites,
- 11:43Speaker 1: especially where he's cheaper Hampton with no nause. You already
- 11:46Speaker 1: mentioned some of the wide receivers. Tight end is the
- 11:48Speaker 1: war and stuff, and then defenses doesn't really matter, we
- 11:50Speaker 1: kind of fill it out with whatever it does, not
- 11:52Speaker 1: to say it doesn't matter. Like last week, a key
- 11:54Speaker 1: way to cut into the Jones ownership with a really
- 11:57Speaker 1: good chalk play, like we talked about not only why
- 11:59Speaker 1: they're chalk, but you know who not only who is
- 12:02Speaker 1: high owned, but why are they high owned? He was
- 12:03Speaker 1: obviously one of those that made perfect sense from that standpoint,
- 12:06Speaker 1: helped your builds. But a way to cut into his
- 12:08Speaker 1: thirty five percent ownership was to play his defense at
- 12:10Speaker 1: four percent. So putting that all together and you know,
- 12:14Speaker 1: just sort of summarizing it, I would say when you
- 12:16Speaker 1: talk about the common build, I'm seeing a lot of
- 12:20Speaker 1: you know, Myers Romodunze are still popular again, like those
- 12:24Speaker 1: are picking up steam. We know Gino and Caleb. I'm
- 12:26Speaker 1: not sure where you're at on genty yet, but like
- 12:29Speaker 1: what sort of your thoughts about to me, there's at
- 12:31Speaker 1: least something to be talked about there with the Chicago
- 12:33Speaker 1: Las Vegas game, because I think that there's you know,
- 12:36Speaker 1: one to two pieces if not more, of that game
- 12:39Speaker 1: in every common build like that, that's just some It
- 12:41Speaker 1: just sets up as a secondary that I'm seeing a
- 12:43Speaker 1: ton of.
- 12:44Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree completely I I don't think like any
- 12:46Speaker 2: of the Bears are going to get as popular as
- 12:48Speaker 2: they were last week. I don't think Donda is going
- 12:50Speaker 2: to be fifty percent, for example, and single entry, like
- 12:52Speaker 2: he was literally fifty percent on in the two hundred
- 12:54Speaker 2: dollars single last week.
- 12:55Speaker 3: That was Yeah, absolutely nutty.
- 12:57Speaker 2: I was not expecting it to be that high, even
- 12:58Speaker 2: though I was like ten percentage points above anyone else
- 13:01Speaker 2: in the industry with his ownership. I think the chalk
- 13:06Speaker 2: of the chalk in that game is going to be
- 13:07Speaker 2: Jacobe Myers, as you mentioned, and he's like the quintessential
- 13:11Speaker 2: guy that I'm saying, Yeah, I think he projects pretty well.
- 13:14Speaker 2: But do I fear a thirty to thirty five point
- 13:18Speaker 2: performance that totally kills me if I don't have him.
- 13:21Speaker 2: Not really, And we have very easy ways to pivot
- 13:24Speaker 2: off of him within that game. You can go to
- 13:26Speaker 2: Trey Tucky, you can go to ash and Gent, you
- 13:28Speaker 2: can go to brock Bauers. So I think it is
- 13:29Speaker 2: going to be one of the most underrowned guys on
- 13:32Speaker 2: the slate. And then we also have some ways to
- 13:35Speaker 2: kind of deviate from the chalk, whether it's DJ Moore,
- 13:37Speaker 2: Luther Burden, either tight end on Chicago. So I think
- 13:41Speaker 2: that game is a very interesting one because unlike last
- 13:45Speaker 2: week where there was like such a clear way of
- 13:48Speaker 2: how you play that game, I think this week it's
- 13:52Speaker 2: a lot easier to get different within that game and
- 13:55Speaker 2: do so in a way that I think is also
- 13:56Speaker 2: like maybe even the highest ceiling that you mussibly get
- 14:00Speaker 2: from it. So I'm very intrigued by that game, and
- 14:02Speaker 2: it's it's one of those things like that might be
- 14:05Speaker 2: the game that keeps me off of them a homestack.
- 14:07Speaker 1: Yeah, And also I will say what's interesting and it's
- 14:10Speaker 1: more of a DraftKings in which is what we mostly
- 14:12Speaker 1: focus on than FanDuel. But you know, a couple of
- 14:13Speaker 1: notes on that is Puka is super expensive on FanDuel,
- 14:16Speaker 1: not very you know, much cheaper on DraftKings, hence the
- 14:18Speaker 1: chalk going there. But in small field, I mean, you
- 14:20Speaker 1: could see Puka push thirty five to forty percent easily
- 14:23Speaker 1: just because the seventy one hundred dollars price tag. That's
- 14:26Speaker 1: also pushing what we talk about the combinations. Like I said,
- 14:29Speaker 1: we talked about ownership like nobody else really does. That's
- 14:31Speaker 1: kind of the point where you're gonna see that, especially
- 14:33Speaker 1: in your single entry of like Puka and Warren, because
- 14:36Speaker 1: if it lands there that feels really comfortable to someone,
- 14:38Speaker 1: there'll be others that will go to like you said,
- 14:40Speaker 1: Mitchell or downs with Pierce out and then there's ways
- 14:43Speaker 1: to talk about that. But one thing I'll say for
- 14:45Speaker 1: sure on DraftKings, and this is a couple interesting notes.
- 14:48Speaker 1: One is Tucker stayed down like he's still only forty
- 14:51Speaker 1: two hundred, and most people are comfortable at this point
- 14:53Speaker 1: in the year twenty twenty five of like, yeah, I
- 14:55Speaker 1: know I'm not going to get forty three point nine
- 14:57Speaker 1: out of him again, but he's also I don't need
- 14:59Speaker 1: ten x. His salary had forty two hundred, so I'll
- 15:02Speaker 1: take half that and be fine. Or a court, you know,
- 15:04Speaker 1: like they'll take a decent number sixteen eighteen and think
- 15:07Speaker 1: they're good. So I'm actually seeing in smaller field it
- 15:10Speaker 1: looks to me, and we talk about the common build
- 15:12Speaker 1: like it could end up being some form of like Geno,
- 15:16Speaker 1: Tucker Myers and maybe Rome, because I do still think
- 15:20Speaker 1: Rome's up there, but he's not nearly as popular as
- 15:22Speaker 1: last week, like you said, and maybe people just move
- 15:24Speaker 1: away from that. But I also think a lot of
- 15:26Speaker 1: people saw last week you could win a Millie with
- 15:29Speaker 1: four Raiders losing by twenty plus or whatever it was
- 15:32Speaker 1: forty four to twenty one or something, and not needing
- 15:34Speaker 1: to figure out the run back on Washington. Now this
- 15:37Speaker 1: week against Chicago. I know there's people that people like,
- 15:41Speaker 1: but you mentioned one there within it, and I'll let
- 15:43Speaker 1: you sort of rebuttal this, But like the Luther Burden
- 15:45Speaker 1: the third last week was super cheap. You know, even
- 15:48Speaker 1: the people that played him, it's not like he was
- 15:50Speaker 1: what he had an amazing game, but like not enough
- 15:52Speaker 1: played him to have him in the right place to
- 15:53Speaker 1: then have them in the winner. And that's kind of
- 15:55Speaker 1: the weeks where we ignore that stuff because we're like,
- 15:57Speaker 1: even if you get the needle in the haystack correct,
- 15:59Speaker 1: it does mean it's gonna really boost You're not gonna
- 16:02Speaker 1: play enough of him probably, and nobody else is either
- 16:04Speaker 1: that it's gonna really affect you as much as like
- 16:06Speaker 1: fading Mason really affected you last week, because that would
- 16:09Speaker 1: be something that can hurt you, especially in single entry.
- 16:11Speaker 1: You kind of got to roll with the chalk in
- 16:12Speaker 1: some places and then figure out where you're getting different
- 16:14Speaker 1: in other things. And then you can extrapolate that out
- 16:16Speaker 1: the three max twenty max, keeping it to a smaller number.
- 16:19Speaker 1: But Luther Burden also is priced up now and he'll
- 16:23Speaker 1: still be low owned. That's a good point, But then
- 16:25Speaker 1: do you want to pay up for a guy after
- 16:27Speaker 1: you know his original what you could call like a
- 16:29Speaker 1: breakout week, even though it's kind of silent to most.
- 16:32Speaker 1: Most don't even know who the guy is still. But
- 16:33Speaker 1: I'm saying on Chicago he's not as popular and then
- 16:36Speaker 1: nobody because he did that, nobody wants DJ Moore and
- 16:40Speaker 1: DJ Moore is at fifty six hundred in that game,
- 16:43Speaker 1: and Caleb would be a flip of the build. Odoons
- 16:45Speaker 1: not as popular. I think an interesting way is to
- 16:47Speaker 1: play like Caleb odoonza more and Bowers or Genty. And
- 16:53Speaker 1: I still want to get your take on Genty too,
- 16:55Speaker 1: just because he seemed like someone that people are talking about,
- 16:57Speaker 1: But I just don't think they can get to him
- 16:59Speaker 1: as much if they're going that geno side of the
- 17:01Speaker 1: bill like we talked about.
- 17:03Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll start with Burden and try to get to
- 17:05Speaker 2: all that. But the hardest part with Burden is he
- 17:08Speaker 2: even last week when he had three catches one hundred
- 17:11Speaker 2: and one yards and a touchdown, two explosive plays ninety
- 17:14Speaker 2: four explosive receiving yards total. He only ran seven rounds,
- 17:18Speaker 2: so you are not just betting on him getting the deepot,
- 17:24Speaker 2: but getting a deep ball called for him. But like
- 17:27Speaker 2: the ball has to be thrown and caught. If it's not,
- 17:30Speaker 2: you're going to think, oh my god, did he even
- 17:31Speaker 2: play like he's a high risk for a zero basically
- 17:35Speaker 2: even though he has a ceiling.
- 17:37Speaker 1: But the.
- 17:40Speaker 2: Positive to it is the matchup with Las Vegas is
- 17:43Speaker 2: a really interesting one because Las Vegas plays a lot
- 17:46Speaker 2: of too high, and so a lot of people will say, okay,
- 17:49Speaker 2: so if they play a lot of too high, then
- 17:51Speaker 2: I need to find guys who succeed too high.
- 17:53Speaker 3: But Vegas is really.
- 17:54Speaker 2: Good when they play too high. They're very vulnerable when
- 17:57Speaker 2: they play single high, and just because of the the
- 18:00Speaker 2: way the league works against the past, they're playing them
- 18:03Speaker 2: about equally, even though relative to most teams they play
- 18:06Speaker 2: a lot of too high. So I think we want
- 18:09Speaker 2: to attack them with guys who specialize against single high.
- 18:12Speaker 2: And that has been burden that has been Roma Dunes,
- 18:15Speaker 2: and importantly that has not been DJ Moore, DJ Moore
- 18:19Speaker 2: is averaging about three yards per out run against Too High,
- 18:22Speaker 2: zero point three yards per out run against Single High
- 18:25Speaker 2: against Single High, like they're very much treating him like
- 18:28Speaker 2: a guy that you get the ball to and you
- 18:30Speaker 2: let him work after the catch. The way to beat
- 18:34Speaker 2: single High is running routes down the field. So that
- 18:37Speaker 2: has been Rome, and that has been burdened burdens over
- 18:41Speaker 2: ten yards per out run. Obviously it's a really really
- 18:44Speaker 2: small sample, not just because it's only three games, but
- 18:46Speaker 2: because he's run like nineteen total routes, most of which, though,
- 18:49Speaker 2: have been against Single High, and that's when he's getting
- 18:51Speaker 2: those targets.
- 18:52Speaker 3: So the path to a.
- 18:53Speaker 2: Ceiling game from Burden is very much there. The path
- 18:56Speaker 2: to a ceiling game from Rome is very much there.
- 18:58Speaker 2: I questioned with DJ Moore, but he's also DJing or
- 19:01Speaker 2: he's a really talented guy. We shouldn't be surprised, if
- 19:03Speaker 2: you know, maybe it's a screen pass that he breaks
- 19:05Speaker 2: for sixty yards, and obviously it only takes one at
- 19:08Speaker 2: his price, so I don't hate that idea at all.
- 19:11Speaker 2: The gent thing is another really interesting one because with
- 19:15Speaker 2: the ball in his hands, he's been good. He's avoiding
- 19:17Speaker 2: tackles very well. The problem is Las Vegas has been
- 19:20Speaker 2: one of the best offensive lines in pass protection and
- 19:22Speaker 2: one of the worst offensive lines in run blocking, and
- 19:25Speaker 2: so from a play calling standpoint, there's just very little
- 19:28Speaker 2: incentive to actually call a lot of runs. You know, obviously,
- 19:32Speaker 2: Gino looked very bad against the Chargers. I think a
- 19:35Speaker 2: lot of that was just the charge defense is really good,
- 19:37Speaker 2: and they're particularly good at what Gino does well. But
- 19:40Speaker 2: man like, Gino's been really good other than that, and
- 19:43Speaker 2: it's just gonna be really hard for them to run.
- 19:45Speaker 2: And if they continue to block the way they've blocked, that's.
- 19:48Speaker 1: Been the issue. And so that's one of those things
- 19:49Speaker 1: where you could see stats pop forever for weeks on end.
- 19:52Speaker 1: We could be talking a week eight, like, my goodness,
- 19:54Speaker 1: this guy's got a break out at some point because
- 19:55Speaker 1: he's had all these opportunities. But you can only do
- 19:58Speaker 1: so much. You can only do with it what you
- 19:59Speaker 1: can do, and that's kind of the point you're bringing up.
- 20:01Speaker 1: I think the interesting thing of it, to at least
- 20:03Speaker 1: be in the back of your mind for your single
- 20:05Speaker 1: entry stuff specifically, is if we are correct on the Geno,
- 20:10Speaker 1: Myers and Tucker stuff, because Tucker is still cheap enough,
- 20:13Speaker 1: and maybe he creeps into some maybe he doesn't. Maybe
- 20:15Speaker 1: some people get tricky and go to Bowers, who's like
- 20:17Speaker 1: the third highest ooned tight end, because I think Hunter
- 20:19Speaker 1: Henry pushes up, I think Warren's up there. There's others
- 20:22Speaker 1: that could sneak in. I'm saying that's fine, but the
- 20:25Speaker 1: gentee stuff would also make sense. If you do want
- 20:27Speaker 1: to flip to the other side. And if you are
- 20:28Speaker 1: in on Burden, I mean you could kind of do
- 20:30Speaker 1: whatever you want. But if you go Caleb Burden, Rome,
- 20:33Speaker 1: Rome's the only one there and Caleb a little bit
- 20:35Speaker 1: that are gonna have some ownership. But then if you
- 20:36Speaker 1: have Genty or Bowers to cut into it some on
- 20:39Speaker 1: the other side as well. Just what the common build is.
- 20:42Speaker 1: People can only put so much. Again, remember if we're
- 20:44Speaker 1: talking single entry or smaller field stuff and things that
- 20:46Speaker 1: you're trying to apply this towards. CMC is already there,
- 20:50Speaker 1: Scataboo is cheap, Hampton is cheap, like people are already
- 20:53Speaker 1: getting to these in the common builds. They can't play everyone,
- 20:56Speaker 1: and that's where I think too many people look for
- 20:57Speaker 1: like a diamond in the rough of trying to get
- 21:00Speaker 1: you know, this crazy running back on this slate when
- 21:02Speaker 1: there is different ways to think about it. And I
- 21:04Speaker 1: know we've got a ton of good ways coming up,
- 21:06Speaker 1: so stick with us. Here. One thing I want to
- 21:08Speaker 1: hit on quick, Jose Morales. Appreciate you in there. I don't.
- 21:12Speaker 1: If we knew this, we'd make a lot, I mean,
- 21:14Speaker 1: win the money. Every week he says, which defense will
- 21:16Speaker 1: do what Minnesota did last week? And I know you're
- 21:17Speaker 1: probably not asking seriously. I mean maybe you are, but
- 21:20Speaker 1: just to note it, I will say this from a
- 21:21Speaker 1: different standpoint particularly, and anyone who watches me just berate
- 21:25Speaker 1: my guy Pat Mayo on those shows on Friday. It's like, literally,
- 21:28Speaker 1: don't put a defense in till the end, Like I
- 21:31Speaker 1: don't care. There's so many ways. And then if you
- 21:33Speaker 1: want to make a one v one swap at the
- 21:34Speaker 1: end or you see something with the defense, I tease
- 21:37Speaker 1: Pat because I know why he does it. He wants
- 21:38Speaker 1: to see where his money sits and then he can
- 21:40Speaker 1: start moving it around to each or own if that's
- 21:42Speaker 1: part of your process. But it's not what I would
- 21:44Speaker 1: let separate me if I have no James Cook, which
- 21:47Speaker 1: is another guy that we're going to talk about this
- 21:49Speaker 1: week in the Buffalo side. I think that's really important.
- 21:50Speaker 1: Maybe we'll go there next. Buffalo's got a thirty one
- 21:53Speaker 1: a half point total. But if I have no James
- 21:55Speaker 1: Cook and I have nothing else Buffalo in my lineup,
- 21:57Speaker 1: and I really think that I have a good lineup
- 21:59Speaker 1: and it lands on the two thousand dollars Saints, I
- 22:01Speaker 1: will play the Saints. Oh well, how they're gonna get
- 22:03Speaker 1: beat down. It's gonna be worse than the Ryder Cup
- 22:05Speaker 1: right now, et cetera. Except maybe, But the point would
- 22:08Speaker 1: be they could have four points until the end of
- 22:10Speaker 1: that and then when all the backups are in, Ray
- 22:13Speaker 1: Davis could be in and fumble it near the goal line,
- 22:15Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, the Saints sneak it in.
- 22:16Speaker 1: Have ten plus points, eleven plus points from two K,
- 22:19Speaker 1: and it might be a slate where there is no
- 22:22Speaker 1: Minnesota D with thirty plus points, and it's just like
- 22:24Speaker 1: the best. The Buffalo D was better than them until
- 22:27Speaker 1: the very end and had seventeen, but they cost a
- 22:29Speaker 1: full almost four K thirty seven hundred. You get the
- 22:32Speaker 1: two KD that allowed you to fit in upgrades in
- 22:34Speaker 1: a couple different positions. So just noting that for these
- 22:37Speaker 1: types of tournaments that we're talking about and trying to
- 22:39Speaker 1: connect it to, that's important. Also, Demonte Taylor came through
- 22:43Speaker 1: said nobody talking about Burden. We appreciate the support he's
- 22:45Speaker 1: been here with us in the past. This is not
- 22:47Speaker 1: true though yet. He actually had a limited practice yesterday.
- 22:51Speaker 1: But it would be something to keep in mind if
- 22:53Speaker 1: you want to go something like Caleb Rome comet Caleb
- 22:56Speaker 1: Burden come. I mean, these are getting a little bit
- 22:58Speaker 1: maybe more aggressive than you need to, but I definitely
- 23:01Speaker 1: think that's something you can do if you want to
- 23:03Speaker 1: get there. And we're waiting on a Caleb spot as well,
- 23:05Speaker 1: and this this could be the one we try. You know,
- 23:07Speaker 1: people tried it with the Dallas game. We could see
- 23:09Speaker 1: it here in the Dallas game. It kind of worked
- 23:10Speaker 1: out right, Alex, So anything else on that if not,
- 23:14Speaker 1: I think part of you know how to leverage to
- 23:16Speaker 1: come and build and talk through some of that stuff.
- 23:17Speaker 1: We had a ton of good talks pre show, But
- 23:21Speaker 1: one thing I want to definitely talk about is what
- 23:22Speaker 1: you brought up to me and how people just don't
- 23:24Speaker 1: look at the slate like this. We're trying to bring
- 23:26Speaker 1: different concepts, different thought processes, Like this is the setup
- 23:30Speaker 1: of what looks like it could be a lower scoring slate,
- 23:33Speaker 1: and I don't think enough people think about that beyond okay,
- 23:37Speaker 1: so what like what is that? What does that actually mean?
- 23:39Speaker 1: And you're going to talk about it, But there's definitely
- 23:41Speaker 1: levels to it when you think of it. So anything
- 23:43Speaker 1: to add on the other stuff we just talked about
- 23:44Speaker 1: and then if not, take us into sort of what
- 23:46Speaker 1: the lower scoring slate can mean and how you can
- 23:48Speaker 1: leverage that.
- 23:50Speaker 2: So I think the biggest thing is number one, recognizing
- 23:52Speaker 2: the fact that we could be very wrong about that, right,
- 23:54Speaker 2: Like we don't know how the games are going to go.
- 23:56Speaker 2: Games could surprise and shoot out all the chalk could
- 23:59Speaker 2: still hit. But when you look at just how the
- 24:01Speaker 2: chalk projects, how the ceiling of the chalk projects compared
- 24:05Speaker 2: two weeks prior, it's definitely not as strong this week.
- 24:09Speaker 2: And so I think like one way of looking at
- 24:13Speaker 2: that is we right now have McCaffrey and Popa Nakua
- 24:18Speaker 2: both projected a little bit under forty percent in single entries,
- 24:21Speaker 2: and I think with Pookah, you can definitely make the
- 24:24Speaker 2: argument that he just projects that well and isn't that
- 24:26Speaker 2: good of a spot and his volume has been that
- 24:28Speaker 2: good with McCaffrey because the offense definitely isn't as good
- 24:32Speaker 2: this year for San Francisco. He too, is like scoring
- 24:34Speaker 2: a massive amount of points without touchdowns like Puka. But
- 24:39Speaker 2: I think the McCaffrey ownership can largely be explained by
- 24:43Speaker 2: the fact that there aren't other pay up running backs
- 24:46Speaker 2: that people are as excited about playing like the spot
- 24:49Speaker 2: for Jonathan Taylor. I think he'll still get twenty percent
- 24:51Speaker 2: something like that, but he's not going to be thirty
- 24:53Speaker 2: five percent like he was last week because the spot
- 24:56Speaker 2: isn't as good and there isn't that second guy like
- 25:00Speaker 2: Bijon is in a tougher spot this week with Washington
- 25:02Speaker 2: than he was last week against Caroline, who, at least
- 25:04Speaker 2: going into the week we all still perceived as one
- 25:07Speaker 2: of the best matchups possible for running backs, And so
- 25:11Speaker 2: the guys who are getting on this ownership, both up
- 25:14Speaker 2: top and then in the mid tier range are largely
- 25:16Speaker 2: getting that ownership just because people aren't as excited about
- 25:19Speaker 2: playing the pivots as they have been in the past weeks.
- 25:23Speaker 2: So I think that's a really kind of key thing
- 25:26Speaker 2: to think about, largely because if it comes out to
- 25:29Speaker 2: be true, if this is a lower scoring week, if
- 25:31Speaker 2: it's like Week one, where twenty five DraftKings points is
- 25:35Speaker 2: a ceiling performance instead of being beaten by fifteen points
- 25:38Speaker 2: to a handful of wide receivers like in Week two,
- 25:40Speaker 2: or like Trey Tucker last week, then a shot on
- 25:44Speaker 2: a guy like Trey Tucker or Luther Burden makes a
- 25:47Speaker 2: lot more sense because when they have that one long
- 25:51Speaker 2: play that's a ceiling performance. You don't need them to
- 25:54Speaker 2: have two more receptions beyond that or things like that.
- 25:56Speaker 2: So it just what's required of a contrarian pivot is
- 26:01Speaker 2: less than what it has been in the past few weeks,
- 26:03Speaker 2: which I really like as someone who likes to play
- 26:05Speaker 2: a very contrarian aggressive side.
- 26:07Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think it's like questions like this, which
- 26:09Speaker 1: you know, I'm gonna use this one example, but I'm
- 26:10Speaker 1: actually gonna tie more to it is the pukahs and
- 26:14Speaker 1: the CMCs, And we talked about this last week when
- 26:16Speaker 1: we launched the show. It's like, it's not just who
- 26:17Speaker 1: is high owned, but how is that ownership connected or
- 26:20Speaker 1: or who is connected. That's not just the combinations that
- 26:22Speaker 1: we'll talk about in a little bit. It's also like
- 26:24Speaker 1: why is that happening and who's being left out? This
- 26:27Speaker 1: is a prime example. So everybody wanted Bijon last week.
- 26:30Speaker 1: People still wanted CMC for sure, but CMC and Puka
- 26:33Speaker 1: two of the highest owned guys in the slates. Specifically
- 26:35Speaker 1: when you get to single entry and stuff like that,
- 26:36Speaker 1: where it's gonna just get boosted even further. It's because
- 26:39Speaker 1: it feels like a safe twenty to twenty five. But
- 26:42Speaker 1: the thing is like on this particular slate, just as
- 26:45Speaker 1: an example, even if they get it first of all,
- 26:47Speaker 1: they could fail on their safe twenty to twenty five
- 26:49Speaker 1: to your point, or they could completely go off. But
- 26:52Speaker 1: not to talk about both sides of the mouth as
- 26:53Speaker 1: much as to explain, like in behind them, Kieran Williams, Bijon,
- 26:59Speaker 1: Jamier Gibbs, Bucky Irving, Say, Kwon Barkley, these are all
- 27:03Speaker 1: twenty five plus guys too, and they're like literally not
- 27:06Speaker 1: being touched, like maybe get to fifteen at most, So
- 27:09Speaker 1: you're safe with McCaffrey, who might get you that twenty
- 27:12Speaker 1: to twenty five again, and you're just gonna stack it up,
- 27:14Speaker 1: but you're gonna pay more for it in most cases,
- 27:17Speaker 1: and you may not even get so you may not
- 27:19Speaker 1: get the other ceiling performances or the better scores, the
- 27:22Speaker 1: more like the middling twenties. You might not get that
- 27:25Speaker 1: because you're paying up for McCaffrey while paying up for
- 27:28Speaker 1: Pooka while getting this, and those get you the fifty
- 27:30Speaker 1: points for the two of them, but you can get
- 27:33Speaker 1: like sixty from a cheaper running back like Bucky and
- 27:36Speaker 1: another wide receiver that's cheaper, and now you've got a
- 27:38Speaker 1: different build. Now you got more money, Now you've got
- 27:41Speaker 1: more points. So that's how that stuff is more interconnected
- 27:44Speaker 1: than you would think. And by the way, Pooka, I
- 27:47Speaker 1: don't know if this is fully correct. I'm looking back
- 27:48Speaker 1: at some old stats, but in a full PPR format
- 27:51Speaker 1: and everything that ran with that. He had a forty
- 27:53Speaker 1: point game back against Buffalo in week I think it
- 27:56Speaker 1: was week fourteen, and twenty twenty four. Most of his
- 27:58Speaker 1: games were like twenty five or less. And it's the
- 28:00Speaker 1: same thing, not saying twenty five doesn't play well, especially
- 28:03Speaker 1: for seventy nine hundred. We're trying to make it explained
- 28:05Speaker 1: that there's just especially that you guys know the wide
- 28:07Speaker 1: receiver variants. Think about it. If Trey Tucker can put
- 28:10Speaker 1: out forty three point nine, Like, now let's go to
- 28:13Speaker 1: the smaller field ownership and look, ken, you know who's
- 28:16Speaker 1: down here. Let me see somebody's got elite neighbors is
- 28:18Speaker 1: getting like you know, Zay Flowers, amnro Saint Brown, AJ Brown, Deebo,
- 28:23Speaker 1: Samuel with No, Terry McLaurin, no, like a bunch of
- 28:26Speaker 1: guys missing all this Lad McConkey, Nico Collins. Sorry too
- 28:31Speaker 1: soon maybe, but you know, all these guys they can
- 28:34Speaker 1: smash Nikua on this slate and you could be a
- 28:37Speaker 1: quick oversight where you're like, oh, I guess I shouldn't
- 28:39Speaker 1: have went so safe in that spot, and then that
- 28:40Speaker 1: stuff leads to other safe stuff. Oh now your Warren
- 28:43Speaker 1: play busted too, and it's like, oh now your lineup's
- 28:46Speaker 1: really busted up, and you're not in a good position.
- 28:48Speaker 1: And somebody out there who just played a couple different pivots,
- 28:51Speaker 1: you're like, damn, they still have a common build, but
- 28:54Speaker 1: they played these different these spots differently. Like an example here,
- 28:57Speaker 1: and I'll let you talk about the James Cook stuff.
- 28:58Speaker 1: It's a good segue to it. James Cook not only
- 29:01Speaker 1: him as a player, the team having a thirty one
- 29:03Speaker 1: point five team total. I think that's important to consider,
- 29:06Speaker 1: especially in smaller field, like if they put up thirty
- 29:08Speaker 1: one and a half, what does that look like? But
- 29:10Speaker 1: what about Detroit? I know it's a tough matchup. We
- 29:12Speaker 1: just saw Cleveland beat Green Bay. That was in Cleveland.
- 29:15Speaker 1: Definitely a much tougher place to play in the dog Pound.
- 29:18Speaker 1: And then also the setup of Gibbs is got the
- 29:22Speaker 1: Detroit Lions on a twenty seven or twenty eight point
- 29:24Speaker 1: team total. What if Gibbs comes through and gets you
- 29:27Speaker 1: thirty on this slate and the way they use him
- 29:29Speaker 1: in a bunch of different ways and all that stuff
- 29:30Speaker 1: that would just crush in a lot of places. And
- 29:32Speaker 1: he's getting like no ownership. So maybe talk to me
- 29:35Speaker 1: about the James Cook stuff first, because I think the
- 29:36Speaker 1: angles of attack on that are are really interesting, and
- 29:39Speaker 1: then we'll get to some of those combinations and stuff. Yeah.
- 29:41Speaker 2: Actually where I want to start is kind of building
- 29:44Speaker 2: on something you were talking about there with Pukah and CMC.
- 29:47Speaker 2: I think an important thought is both Puka and CMC
- 29:53Speaker 2: are not necessarily either good place or bad plays. It's
- 29:56Speaker 2: very dependent on the lineup that you're playing as a whole,
- 29:59Speaker 2: if you're taking a risk on like you mentioned Caleb
- 30:02Speaker 2: Rome Burden and Trey Tucker or Brock Bowers as a bringback, like,
- 30:07Speaker 2: there's so much contrarian upside in that stack. If that hits,
- 30:11Speaker 2: you want that surrounded my high probability plays. So in
- 30:14Speaker 2: that kind of lineup, Pookah makes a ton of sense.
- 30:16Speaker 2: Sam scene makes a ton of sense. If you're going
- 30:19Speaker 2: with the boring high floor chalk in the mid range
- 30:22Speaker 2: like a Jacoby Meyers one off, like Omarion Hampton, you
- 30:27Speaker 2: probably want to get different up top because now you're
- 30:29Speaker 2: hoping that the guy up top helps you separate. So
- 30:31Speaker 2: now you're hoping Puka gets twenty five and Nico Collins
- 30:34Speaker 2: gets thirty six, something like that. So I think that's
- 30:37Speaker 2: a really important point to think about, what is your
- 30:39Speaker 2: lineup as a whole saying, and how does that inform
- 30:41Speaker 2: your decision on the mega chalk up top with kel
- 30:44Speaker 2: c C and Puka.
- 30:46Speaker 1: But yeah, reject to add one quick thing and I'll
- 30:48Speaker 1: let you run with the other one. Is that's important too,
- 30:50Speaker 1: because like you just said, the Nikua with Collins thing,
- 30:53Speaker 1: like I was saying golf like people are always trying
- 30:55Speaker 1: to like, oh I gotta pivot, I gotta do this.
- 30:57Speaker 1: It's like you're allowed to play both, and not only
- 30:59Speaker 1: can you play both, that flips the build. Maybe your
- 31:01Speaker 1: your Nico Collins is instead of your CMC and it's
- 31:05Speaker 1: like using I'm talking about using the money, it actually
- 31:07Speaker 1: threw up more money and you just end up with
- 31:09Speaker 1: a different build style. But that's the whole point, and
- 31:11Speaker 1: that's talking about how things are interconnected without getting completely
- 31:14Speaker 1: off the board and crazy, that's still a way to
- 31:16Speaker 1: do it where you're you still are saying, look, I'm
- 31:18Speaker 1: not moving off off pooka here, like that spot's touga.
- 31:21Speaker 1: What if Davante who sounds like it's just veteran's rest
- 31:23Speaker 1: and maybe he's gonna be fine or he's gonna play
- 31:25Speaker 1: through it either way. But my point is that's kind
- 31:27Speaker 1: of the setup where you know, Newton Coup is obviously
- 31:29Speaker 1: a fine play either way, like you said, but it's
- 31:31Speaker 1: there's different ways you can set that up. Keep rolling,
- 31:33Speaker 1: Sorry about that.
- 31:34Speaker 2: Yeah, So with this Jim Cook stuff, I think the
- 31:38Speaker 2: biggest thing to realize is there's there's risk of his
- 31:42Speaker 2: ceiling just being cut off from Buffalo steamrolling the game
- 31:46Speaker 2: too much, and it's Ray Davis and Ty Johnson throughout
- 31:49Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, and you're missing out in like an
- 31:51Speaker 2: extra eight touches for James Cook compared to what he
- 31:53Speaker 2: would have had.
- 31:55Speaker 3: So the number one.
- 31:55Speaker 2: Thing is if you go to James Cook, there's actual
- 31:58Speaker 2: value here in a bring back, and the bringback should
- 32:02Speaker 2: do two things. Number One, it should help New Orleans
- 32:04Speaker 2: actually keep it close, very much like Miami was able
- 32:06Speaker 2: to do a week ago. And you would also then
- 32:10Speaker 2: love to have some explosive plays. Buffalo has been a
- 32:14Speaker 2: very good matchup over the last couple of years for
- 32:16Speaker 2: running backs. They allow a lot of explosive plays on
- 32:19Speaker 2: the ground. They have allowed the most receiving arts per
- 32:22Speaker 2: games so far this year to running backs, and the
- 32:25Speaker 2: way they play coverage like it's a lot of forcing
- 32:27Speaker 2: things underneath, so it makes sense that they funnel stuff
- 32:30Speaker 2: to running back. So I think Kamara is a solid play.
- 32:32Speaker 2: Is going to be very low owned, so you don't
- 32:34Speaker 2: have to worry about the same like combinatorial ownership stuff
- 32:37Speaker 2: that you do with a lot of other mini sacs. Plus,
- 32:39Speaker 2: people really don't like using running back pairings anyway. So
- 32:42Speaker 2: Cook Kamara, which I think is positively correlated, won't be
- 32:46Speaker 2: a popular mini stack at all. And then the other
- 32:49Speaker 2: guy that I like from this game is Rashid Shihed.
- 32:51Speaker 2: Buffalo has been a good matchup for wide receiver twos.
- 32:54Speaker 2: The way to beat them, similar to Las Vegas, is
- 32:58Speaker 2: you have to take advantage of the single highlight looks,
- 33:00Speaker 2: even though they don't play many of them, and she
- 33:02Speaker 2: Heat is the guy for them in that regard. So
- 33:04Speaker 2: I think this could be a game where, you know,
- 33:07Speaker 2: maybe she only catches five balls, but if one of
- 33:09Speaker 2: them is a fifty yard touchdown, you're there and it
- 33:12Speaker 2: gets the ball right back to James Cook and it
- 33:14Speaker 2: makes it more likely that Cook is on the field
- 33:16Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter. So I really like the way
- 33:18Speaker 2: both Shaheed and Kamara affect the ceiling outcome for James Cook.
- 33:22Speaker 2: And you know, I don't think there's outside of CMC.
- 33:27Speaker 2: I don't think there's a running back on this light
- 33:29Speaker 2: that has the floor that James Cook has, so unleashing
- 33:31Speaker 2: his ceiling would also be great.
- 33:33Speaker 1: It requires someone on the other side, like you said,
- 33:35Speaker 1: or another way that this thing works out. Obviously, he
- 33:37Speaker 1: can get in there early and often like if he
- 33:38Speaker 1: got in there early twice and then I think that
- 33:41Speaker 1: still correlates to what I've talked about a little bit,
- 33:43Speaker 1: and they're getting a little steam now because you can
- 33:44Speaker 1: afford them on this slate. But the buffalo d with
- 33:47Speaker 1: James Cook would be the way I see that playing out.
- 33:49Speaker 1: It's Cook has to get in early. If he does,
- 33:51Speaker 1: those points rack up and count and then the defense
- 33:54Speaker 1: can sort of tee off. But I like your call too.
- 33:56Speaker 1: The other setup was and there's a lot of the
- 33:57Speaker 1: different conversations, so maybe this will tie into the Juwan
- 34:02Speaker 1: Johnson factor in this game. But one thing, and it's
- 34:05Speaker 1: not my light at the end of the lane for later,
- 34:07Speaker 1: but it was. These are two considerations for sure that
- 34:09Speaker 1: I love. One is Kamara in the same game. Kamara
- 34:13Speaker 1: has already been in blowouts where he's still getting eighteen
- 34:15Speaker 1: carries and targets and things like that. So even if
- 34:17Speaker 1: it is a blowout, he can kind of cover you
- 34:19Speaker 1: on that angle he's the opposite side. Or you could
- 34:21Speaker 1: also play him with if you think that that because
- 34:24Speaker 1: that would get James Cook going what if he gets
- 34:26Speaker 1: a play? Think about it too. The guys like Shahid
- 34:28Speaker 1: Olave those guys just toss their hands up. All of
- 34:31Speaker 1: a sudden, we got a Pi Kamara sneaks one in.
- 34:33Speaker 1: It gets the game flow going a bit early, and
- 34:35Speaker 1: then yeah, they still get crushed by twenty later, but
- 34:37Speaker 1: you could see that play out. The other thing Olave
- 34:41Speaker 1: getting all the targets every week. We talked about this
- 34:43Speaker 1: last week actually with Hoop title myself on our Sunday show,
- 34:45Speaker 1: and Hoops like break he can get all the targets,
- 34:47Speaker 1: he still has to do something with them. The consideration
- 34:49Speaker 1: has been that he still ends up getting you like
- 34:51Speaker 1: ten or eleven points. That's not going to play out
- 34:53Speaker 1: as well. But you for everything we've talked about so far,
- 34:56Speaker 1: and then tying some of it together at the halfway
- 34:58Speaker 1: point is you know, Shaheed is the perfect example here.
- 35:03Speaker 1: You could have ten o Lave targets busted up in
- 35:05Speaker 1: one Shaheed target because the target's an eighty yard bomb
- 35:08Speaker 1: to the end zone. And then he gets another couple
- 35:10Speaker 1: catches randomly throughout the second half when they're getting blown
- 35:12Speaker 1: out or something, and it's like once for thirty and
- 35:15Speaker 1: then a chunk play for twelve and he gets the
- 35:16Speaker 1: bonus and you're good. So it's like Wow, you know,
- 35:18Speaker 1: I got everything I needed out of this guy for
- 35:20Speaker 1: a cheaper price. He's probably two percent owned, and yet
- 35:23Speaker 1: people are interested in James Cook. How can you not
- 35:26Speaker 1: play those two as a combo. And this is where
- 35:28Speaker 1: I'll flip it back to you, because this is another
- 35:30Speaker 1: really good pre show conversation we had in prepping for this.
- 35:32Speaker 1: Is like the Juwan Johnson who actually happened to be
- 35:35Speaker 1: the exact same scenario last week with Kenneth Walker. I
- 35:38Speaker 1: just saw it in the chat from our guy new
- 35:40Speaker 1: One said, you know, perfect run back. We talked about
- 35:43Speaker 1: this though, is Juwan Johnson in this case really a
- 35:45Speaker 1: perfect run back for James Cook if they're down? Yeah,
- 35:48Speaker 1: they got to throw it, but what does that actually
- 35:49Speaker 1: look like? Here? And then we'll talk about it more
- 35:51Speaker 1: when we get to Tyler Warren in a second as
- 35:53Speaker 1: well with the pooka runback.
- 35:55Speaker 2: Yeah, so the first thing is what happens when the
- 35:58Speaker 2: guy succeeds. When Heed succeeds, it's a big play. It
- 36:02Speaker 2: gets the ball right back to James Cook. When Jawan
- 36:04Speaker 2: Johnson succeeds, it's a bunch of short receptions which don't
- 36:09Speaker 2: totally help the one angle where it could help this week,
- 36:11Speaker 2: of course, is an each one Johnson touchdown makes James
- 36:15Speaker 2: Cook more likely to play the fourth quarter. The problem
- 36:18Speaker 2: is Buffalo has been a really good has been a
- 36:21Speaker 2: really tough matchup for tight ends. They're allowing three point
- 36:24Speaker 2: two fantasy points less than those tight ends have averaged.
- 36:28Speaker 2: That's using our DVOA adjusted fantasy points against tool over
- 36:31Speaker 2: at FT and fantasy same with wide receiver ons negative
- 36:34Speaker 2: three point nine wide receiver twos plus three point six
- 36:37Speaker 2: fantasy points per game. So again, really good spot for Shaheed.
- 36:40Speaker 2: It's not just what happens when he succeeds, it's also
- 36:42Speaker 2: like the likelihood of success seems higher for him this
- 36:45Speaker 2: week than any week so far this year for Shaheed.
- 36:48Speaker 2: And he's still like he's been fine for his price.
- 36:50Speaker 2: He just hasn't had the explosion game like we have
- 36:52Speaker 2: been accustomed to seeing from him over the past.
- 36:54Speaker 3: Couple of years.
- 36:56Speaker 2: But yeah, I think to that point, like there's you
- 36:59Speaker 2: mentioned Shaheed versus lave, same concept, but it's so valuable
- 37:05Speaker 2: when you're fading a chalky piece, which I'm not sure
- 37:08Speaker 2: that a lave is gonna be chalked, but particularly with
- 37:10Speaker 2: in James Cook lineups, I think a lave will be
- 37:12Speaker 2: pretty popular. It's so valuable when the pivot that you
- 37:17Speaker 2: go to really really makes it more likely that the
- 37:20Speaker 2: guy you're pivoting away from fails, and when she heat succeeds.
- 37:23Speaker 2: If he catches a fifty yard touchdown, that's an entire
- 37:26Speaker 2: drive of potential receptions and potential touchdowns for a lave
- 37:31Speaker 2: that he completely misses out on because the entire drive
- 37:33Speaker 2: was just Shihed. So I really like the Shihied play
- 37:36Speaker 2: this week. I think it's shaping up really well. The
- 37:38Speaker 2: only thing I'll say here is we've now touched on
- 37:41Speaker 2: a lot of like these great ceiling contrarian upside guys
- 37:46Speaker 2: who have a real floor. Please don't stack them all together.
- 37:50Speaker 2: Don't please Shhed and Burden and I'm gonna talk about
- 37:52Speaker 2: Darnold Mooney. Don't play Shehed, Burden and the Mooney together.
- 37:55Speaker 2: Make sure you're only playing one of those guys, because
- 37:57Speaker 2: when they hit like it's it's a low enough probability
- 38:01Speaker 2: and it's valuable enough that that should be the like
- 38:04Speaker 2: the one key you need in your lineup, and everyone
- 38:06Speaker 2: else should be pretty high probability.
- 38:08Speaker 3: Well, correlated things like that.
- 38:09Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's what we try to say we we
- 38:11Speaker 1: created this show, we want to focus on one to
- 38:13Speaker 1: twenty lineups. We know there's not a ton of content around.
- 38:15Speaker 1: That's what we're relating this to. In small fields, single entry,
- 38:18Speaker 1: there is a possibility O Lave breaks fifteen percent, will
- 38:21Speaker 1: Shahid sits at one percent? Like that's just a prime example,
- 38:24Speaker 1: and it's gonna be risky, but that's single entry. Think
- 38:27Speaker 1: about the single you might need like to pull that
- 38:29Speaker 1: one lever and if you're building for one fifteen and
- 38:32Speaker 1: you're still taking this stuff into try and you'll get
- 38:34Speaker 1: this stuff and then extrapolate it out. Yes, probably put Shaheed,
- 38:38Speaker 1: Burden and Mooney into your pool because you're building a portfolio,
- 38:43Speaker 1: but don't be in single lantry jam and every lever like,
- 38:45Speaker 1: oh I got to pull them all. Like if I
- 38:46Speaker 1: if I just get three ceiling outcomes from these random
- 38:48Speaker 1: dudes that can also put up zeros, I will win.
- 38:50Speaker 1: Yeah you will, but not very often. And there's only
- 38:53Speaker 1: eighteen weeks in the season, my friends, so before the playoffs,
- 38:55Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. So you get what I'm saying.
- 38:57Speaker 1: But yeah, I definitely think there's a world where all
- 38:59Speaker 1: Lave is steamed up. I'll let you talk about Mooney
- 39:03Speaker 1: in a second, but I was gonna say just one
- 39:05Speaker 1: quick note on the other combination that you and I
- 39:08Speaker 1: had mentioned to talk about, and I wanted to bring
- 39:09Speaker 1: it up here, was like the Nikua mixed. I think
- 39:13Speaker 1: we see way more Nikua with Warren as a combo
- 39:16Speaker 1: even then Jonathan Taylor, because I will say, like when
- 39:18Speaker 1: you get to CMC scataboo Hampton, if some of the
- 39:21Speaker 1: other guys start to pick up a little bit of steam,
- 39:23Speaker 1: there's maybe not as much room for him as people
- 39:25Speaker 1: would like, and so what they And also don't forget
- 39:28Speaker 1: Donne Mitchell, which I also want to talk about in
- 39:30Speaker 1: a second. So maybe relate this to Mitchell and Warren.
- 39:33Speaker 1: But I think Mitchell is actually more likely to get
- 39:35Speaker 1: things going there to make it get rolling versus Warren
- 39:39Speaker 1: might just be like a third down or something like
- 39:41Speaker 1: that just extends the field. So you were talking about
- 39:43Speaker 1: this a little bit earlier. I'll let you take it,
- 39:44Speaker 1: but this is another interesting concept for sure.
- 39:47Speaker 2: So anyone who didn't watch last week or didn't watch
- 39:50Speaker 2: our review show a couple of weeks ago. One of
- 39:51Speaker 2: the things that I have spent a ton of time
- 39:53Speaker 2: kind of studying, particularly this season, is comminatorial ownership. So
- 39:59Speaker 2: just like you have two guys, they're bout ten percent,
- 40:02Speaker 2: so you expect together they're going to be really low owned.
- 40:04Speaker 2: But actually it's like within the ten percent of lineups
- 40:08Speaker 2: that have one guy, fifty percent of the lives contain
- 40:10Speaker 2: the other guy. That's an extreme example, but the idea
- 40:13Speaker 2: is we're looking for unique combinations of players, and we're
- 40:16Speaker 2: trying to avoid the combinations of players they're going to
- 40:18Speaker 2: be a lot higher owned than you would expect just
- 40:20Speaker 2: given their individual ownerships. And this is a game where
- 40:23Speaker 2: I think we want to be very careful about our
- 40:26Speaker 2: combinations and the mini stacks. A lot of it has
- 40:29Speaker 2: to do with for years now, like a lot of
- 40:33Speaker 2: shows around the industry, including shows that I've done and
- 40:35Speaker 2: shows that you've done, I've tried to get ahead of
- 40:38Speaker 2: the curb saying, hey, one of the things that we
- 40:39Speaker 2: can do that's really advantageous is mini stacking and adding
- 40:42Speaker 2: correlation to our lineups that way. But now so many
- 40:45Speaker 2: people are doing it, and so many people are doing
- 40:47Speaker 2: it in like not a very thoughtful way where they're
- 40:50Speaker 2: really thinking about how one player affects the other and
- 40:53Speaker 2: how one player affects the pace of the game and
- 40:55Speaker 2: the game script. They're just saying, these guys are in
- 40:58Speaker 2: the same game. I'm going to a ministack and I
- 41:01Speaker 2: know that's good, so they just click. So we want
- 41:03Speaker 2: to be careful about ministacks in general. I think this
- 41:05Speaker 2: is one of the games we really want to be
- 41:07Speaker 2: careful about it because Pooka's going to be so high owned,
- 41:10Speaker 2: and you mentioned like Puka and Jonathan Taylor maybe won't
- 41:13Speaker 2: be dot com.
- 41:14Speaker 3: That are popular together.
- 41:15Speaker 2: I think they will because I think people are gonna say, ooh,
- 41:18Speaker 2: not only do I get a nice pivot off the
- 41:20Speaker 2: mega chalk Christian McCaffrey with Jonathan Taylor, but I also
- 41:23Speaker 2: get well, I also get a correlated mini stack with
- 41:26Speaker 2: Puka Number one. I questioned the actual correlation there, Like,
- 41:30Speaker 2: maybe you get the Jonathan Taylor explosive play that gets
- 41:32Speaker 2: the ball back to the rams and now they have
- 41:34Speaker 2: to throw the ball a lot, But more often than not,
- 41:36Speaker 2: I think, you know, Jonathan Taylor is going to have
- 41:39Speaker 2: a good game when they have the ball a lot
- 41:41Speaker 2: and they can run the ball a lot and he
- 41:42Speaker 2: has twenty five carries like he did against Denver, and
- 41:45Speaker 2: in that game, the Rams offensive volume isn't going to
- 41:48Speaker 2: be high enough to get Puka the thirteen to fifteen
- 41:51Speaker 2: target game that you're hoping for.
- 41:53Speaker 3: Similar idea with Tyler Warren. There's not a lot there
- 41:56Speaker 3: to really boost the actual game environment. You mentioned Adda
- 41:59Speaker 3: and I ANNONI Mitchell is maybe a better Meani Snack,
- 42:02Speaker 3: and I think you're right because at least when he
- 42:05Speaker 3: hits like there's a good chance that he's getting the
- 42:06Speaker 3: downfield targets that Alec Pierce has now avoided because he's
- 42:11Speaker 3: going to be out this week. So I like that
- 42:13Speaker 3: a little bit more.
- 42:13Speaker 2: But I also say, like, if Anaai Mitchell is seven
- 42:17Speaker 2: percent down on the slate, he might be in twenty
- 42:20Speaker 2: percent of Puka lineups. So I still have a lot
- 42:23Speaker 2: of hesitation there because he's not going to be the
- 42:25Speaker 2: differentiator or the separator that you think you're getting in
- 42:28Speaker 2: your lineup, just because that conditional ownership with Pooka is
- 42:31Speaker 2: going to be so much higher than his actual ownership.
- 42:33Speaker 1: I spoiler alert will have to save thoughts here, but
- 42:36Speaker 1: I will say that I have some definite more thoughts
- 42:38Speaker 1: on this game, and we'll get to them later. But
- 42:40Speaker 1: I don't disagree on the Jonathan Taylor thing. The only
- 42:42Speaker 1: thing I guess I would say worry about in single
- 42:45Speaker 1: entry and higher stake, smaller field stuff and stuff. We're
- 42:47Speaker 1: trying to again, whether you play a five dollars single
- 42:49Speaker 1: entry with a smaller field or a five hundred dollars
- 42:51Speaker 1: single we want you to be able to apply these thoughts.
- 42:53Speaker 1: Is that I just don't see people going away from
- 42:56Speaker 1: McCaffrey that often. And then one of ham in Scataboo
- 43:00Speaker 1: in that same game, so I'll go there in a
- 43:02Speaker 1: second as well, but just to note that it doesn't
- 43:04Speaker 1: leave a lot of room for it. And once we
- 43:06Speaker 1: got the Pierce news, I think there's comfortability with Mitchell
- 43:10Speaker 1: being so cheap, but there's also Pittman. There's also downs,
- 43:13Speaker 1: so who everybody's thrown to the side now because they
- 43:15Speaker 1: don't need them anymore. They wanted them before but now
- 43:17Speaker 1: they don't. So there's things like that that we can
- 43:19Speaker 1: talk about later. But give me your thoughts on those
- 43:21Speaker 1: running backs in the same game, because let me just
- 43:24Speaker 1: look at it for two seconds, but it was Hampton Scataboo.
- 43:27Speaker 1: We talked about Cook and we talked about Kamara. That's
- 43:31Speaker 1: definitely way more contrarian. So there's that one, and then
- 43:34Speaker 1: there was another one. It was who was the other one?
- 43:36Speaker 1: I was thinking of, Yeah, Bijon's in there with the
- 43:41Speaker 1: other side because of Bill being out for Washington. But
- 43:45Speaker 1: I thought there was another one. Maybe it was. Maybe
- 43:47Speaker 1: I'm forgetting it, but either way, the other one that
- 43:48Speaker 1: could be you could also say is like Williams and Taylor,
- 43:51Speaker 1: but I just again not as popular. So what's your
- 43:53Speaker 1: thoughts on like Hampton Scataboo in the same game and
- 43:55Speaker 1: just playing them both.
- 43:58Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind it.
- 43:59Speaker 2: Like I said, when we're looking for, you know, contrarian
- 44:03Speaker 2: pairings of players, using two running backs from the same
- 44:05Speaker 2: game is definitely a good way to do that. So
- 44:07Speaker 2: it's valuable in that regard. But you definitely run into
- 44:09Speaker 2: correlation issues with this one. I think maybe less so
- 44:13Speaker 2: because there's a decent chance that Scataboo just catches a
- 44:16Speaker 2: bunch of balls, and you know, a lot of the
- 44:18Speaker 2: offense is just let's get him the ball.
- 44:20Speaker 3: It's offense we possibly can and just let him work.
- 44:23Speaker 2: Like he had six receptions on eight targets for sixty
- 44:25Speaker 2: one yards last game. They lost twenty two to nine,
- 44:28Speaker 2: So there's there's enough of a path there for him
- 44:32Speaker 2: that I think you could at least kind of success,
- 44:35Speaker 2: even if the game script is traditionally really bad for
- 44:37Speaker 2: the running back where you're using both of them, So
- 44:39Speaker 2: I don't mind it at all. I will say I
- 44:42Speaker 2: like Hampton a lot more in this game, just because
- 44:43Speaker 2: I think it's a very good matchup for him. I
- 44:46Speaker 2: think we'll have the ball a lot. I think the
- 44:48Speaker 2: Chargers defense is a really good play this week, and
- 44:51Speaker 2: that's something that you and I don't totally agree on.
- 44:53Speaker 2: By the way, I think it is worth thinking through defenses.
- 44:56Speaker 2: It's obviously extremely hard to predict, but I think this
- 45:00Speaker 2: feeling likelihood is so much higher from defenses who number
- 45:04Speaker 2: one rush the passer well number two and this is
- 45:07Speaker 2: the most important one I think are likely to play
- 45:11Speaker 2: in the game scripts where the other team has to
- 45:13Speaker 2: throw the ball and they have to try and push
- 45:14Speaker 2: the ball downfield.
- 45:15Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think this is one of those spots
- 45:18Speaker 3: for the Chargers.
- 45:20Speaker 2: Maybe not just because rookie quarterbacks. So I know it's
- 45:23Speaker 2: common to say, oh, rookie quarterback, let's attack him. The
- 45:25Speaker 2: truth is a lot of the time when a rookie
- 45:27Speaker 2: quarterback is playing, especially in his debut. The game plan
- 45:29Speaker 2: is extremely conservative. They're not taking chances downfield. They're trying
- 45:33Speaker 2: a lot of like really really short design targets where
- 45:36Speaker 2: it's just not much of an opportunity for the defense
- 45:38Speaker 2: to score. But if this game is twenty one to
- 45:41Speaker 2: nothing going into the second quarter, they're going to have
- 45:45Speaker 2: to throw the ball downfield so that there will be opportunities.
- 45:48Speaker 2: So I think Hampton plus the Chargers is a really
- 45:52Speaker 2: very desirable payments.
- 45:54Speaker 1: Yeah, which answer answer is Anthony's question always here supporting,
- 45:57Speaker 1: We appreciate you, Anthony. He says, you know, it's kind
- 45:58Speaker 1: of like the Mason min DCNSCT when we were talking
- 46:00Speaker 1: about other stuff earlier with Puka and cutting into it. Yes,
- 46:03Speaker 1: if you find the right combin age, like you have
- 46:05Speaker 1: Puka and Downs this week, and Downs is the one
- 46:08Speaker 1: that gets the Alec Pierce baum and it just goes
- 46:10Speaker 1: that way and that starts speeding it up and then
- 46:12Speaker 1: moves the game back and Cord, I think you'll need
- 46:13Speaker 1: more to that point, and I'll get to it later,
- 46:15Speaker 1: but I will just say this would be a prime
- 46:17Speaker 1: example that Alex just mentioned. If Hampton is gonna pick
- 46:20Speaker 1: up the steam and people are playing Skataboo heavily on
- 46:23Speaker 1: both sides because he's even cheaper on fanduels, So that's
- 46:26Speaker 1: just has nothing to do with the overall But it's
- 46:28Speaker 1: like having that chargers d would be different than most
- 46:30Speaker 1: because a lot of people are playing Skataboo. Plus it
- 46:32Speaker 1: also makes sense that could put him in the position.
- 46:34Speaker 1: And as far as the defense goes, like you know,
- 46:37Speaker 1: Tommy says, who would be the best pass catcher for Indie,
- 46:40Speaker 1: then we don't know. But that's the whole point of
- 46:41Speaker 1: the show, and the premise is we don't know the
- 46:43Speaker 1: place and the picks we're gonna you know, we hope
- 46:45Speaker 1: we do and we hope we get them right. But
- 46:47Speaker 1: it's a product of the process. That's the whole point.
- 46:50Speaker 1: And we're talking about thinking in especially when you have
- 46:52Speaker 1: single entry, you have one lineup. We're talking about thinking
- 46:54Speaker 1: about the lineup as a whole. What are you leaving out?
- 46:57Speaker 1: What does this mean if everyone's doing this? How can
- 46:59Speaker 1: I do this instead? That's the power of a show
- 47:01Speaker 1: like this, where the other shows are just give you
- 47:03Speaker 1: a million different ideas as they race down the page
- 47:05Speaker 1: and go position by position and all that we just
- 47:07Speaker 1: kind of hit the chalk at the positions to see
- 47:09Speaker 1: what the common build looks like, to see how to
- 47:11Speaker 1: leverage it. Hence, we're not on narrative street. We're on
- 47:14Speaker 1: leverage lane. We're trying to figure out ways to win
- 47:16Speaker 1: these tournaments. It's still a GPP focus. This is not
- 47:19Speaker 1: a cash game, single entry that we're talking about. We're
- 47:22Speaker 1: talking about how you can win the tournament. All these
- 47:24Speaker 1: thoughts combined together. And to answer that the point that
- 47:26Speaker 1: Alex just made about defense, it's not that I ignore
- 47:29Speaker 1: defense like some people say an mme specifically when it's
- 47:32Speaker 1: one fifty max. We'll say, honestly, I just cap these
- 47:35Speaker 1: at fifteen to twenty percent. I let them fall in
- 47:37Speaker 1: where they may, let the owner be optimizer take over.
- 47:39Speaker 1: I don't fully agree with that. I think you should
- 47:41Speaker 1: still be picking to what you're wanting. But your example
- 47:44Speaker 1: you gave is a perfect one. And I've talked about
- 47:46Speaker 1: this for years. If it's a third string quarterback coming in,
- 47:50Speaker 1: that's just a veteran third string quarterback coming in, or
- 47:52Speaker 1: whatever that might look like. It's like you said, oftentimes,
- 47:55Speaker 1: the coach's job is to make it as easy as
- 47:57Speaker 1: possible for them just to grind through this thing. Make
- 48:00Speaker 1: mistakes and you may not get many opportunities with Dart
- 48:03Speaker 1: this week. It's like go time. Just figure it out
- 48:06Speaker 1: out of the gate, even if the kid makes mistakes.
- 48:08Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not in the coaches room, not a
- 48:09Speaker 1: fly on the wall. But you got to think it's like,
- 48:11Speaker 1: that's the whole point here. We got to see what
- 48:12Speaker 1: this kid got. Let's let him roll, Let's let him
- 48:14Speaker 1: do him. He looked awesome in the preseason. Let's see
- 48:17Speaker 1: what he can pull off here and see what happens. Well,
- 48:19Speaker 1: he's playing in the pros. Now, you know you can
- 48:21Speaker 1: walk in. If you're an MMA fighter, you can make
- 48:23Speaker 1: it to the octagon, walk in for the first time
- 48:25Speaker 1: and get knocked out. That can happen too. Welcome to
- 48:27Speaker 1: the octagon, buddy, or a pitcher, We've seen it in baseball.
- 48:29Speaker 1: Walk into the major leagues. Boom o Tawny Baum to
- 48:32Speaker 1: the rafters. Right out of the gate. You're still in
- 48:34Speaker 1: the major leagues. You're still in the mound, but welcome
- 48:36Speaker 1: to the big show. That can happen. It's one game,
- 48:39Speaker 1: one spot. So the biggest thing about that, like you said,
- 48:42Speaker 1: is if you roll Hampton. Putting the chargers DN is
- 48:45Speaker 1: a way to do it, and that just can be
- 48:46Speaker 1: a part of your thought process. But I'm saying in
- 48:48Speaker 1: something like single entry, if I'm making considerations, usually there's
- 48:52Speaker 1: two to three defenses that I can feel pretty good about.
- 48:55Speaker 1: It's the same at the other position stuff. But it's
- 48:57Speaker 1: just if I like what I like, if I'm not
- 48:59Speaker 1: gonna move away from Shahed and i want to stay
- 49:01Speaker 1: on Shahed, that I'm not going to move off him
- 49:04Speaker 1: just to fix my defense. I want Shahed in there.
- 49:06Speaker 1: So you guys will have to make these decisions with
- 49:08Speaker 1: your lineups, and especially I should say your lineup talking
- 49:11Speaker 1: single Andrew, you got to make that decision, so Alex,
- 49:13Speaker 1: I mean you could talk a ton more to that,
- 49:15Speaker 1: I'm sure. But the concept of like when you're making
- 49:18Speaker 1: those final decisions and looking and comparing two v two
- 49:21Speaker 1: s and one v ones, I think a lot of
- 49:23Speaker 1: people do struggle with that and they say, man, I
- 49:25Speaker 1: had it and then I switched off it. What are
- 49:27Speaker 1: some of the sort of components for you of why
- 49:30Speaker 1: you'd make a switch or where you'd be willing to
- 49:32Speaker 1: switch when it comes down to it.
- 49:35Speaker 2: Uh, It's an interesting question. You give me a little
- 49:40Speaker 2: more context and that question like switch from.
- 49:44Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, it's a good question, I think, and it's
- 49:46Speaker 1: probably one to cut you off guard a little bit.
- 49:48Speaker 1: But I guess for me, I get so many at
- 49:49Speaker 1: Mastermind and over at Ship and Nation and people talking
- 49:52Speaker 1: about this. They say, well, I had a great lineup
- 49:55Speaker 1: until Sunday morning. I tuned into X show whatever it
- 49:58Speaker 1: is on Sunday morning and and they told me this,
- 50:01Speaker 1: and it changed my mind on it. I found a
- 50:03Speaker 1: two v two swap and I went to it, and
- 50:05Speaker 1: damn if I had a state on the original one,
- 50:08Speaker 1: I would have won the GPP or what. Maybe it's
- 50:10Speaker 1: not that aggressive. I've actually heard that plenty of times,
- 50:12Speaker 1: by the way, But in general, what is gonna signal
- 50:16Speaker 1: you to take a second look or to make your
- 50:18Speaker 1: final decision, or to close out your lineup versus like
- 50:21Speaker 1: I just said, I would easily change a defense if
- 50:23Speaker 1: it needs something else work That made more sense.
- 50:26Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, I love this question.
- 50:28Speaker 2: I would say, don't ever do anything just because we
- 50:32Speaker 2: say so, you know, when when we make an argument.
- 50:36Speaker 2: I think one of the nice things about this show,
- 50:38Speaker 2: and one of the reasons why Tampa and I were
- 50:40Speaker 2: really excited to do a show together. Is because we
- 50:42Speaker 2: very much make an effort to always give you the why.
- 50:44Speaker 2: We're not just saying do this or don't do this.
- 50:47Speaker 2: We're telling you why we feel that way. So don't
- 50:50Speaker 2: just listen to what we have to suggest, evaluate the
- 50:53Speaker 2: why that we're given. If you agree with it, make
- 50:56Speaker 2: the change, make the switch, and now you're not going
- 50:59Speaker 2: to have that regret because you know there's a very
- 51:03Speaker 2: like substantial reason that you agree with. It's your own decision.
- 51:06Speaker 2: You agree with the decision, and you agree with the
- 51:09Speaker 2: logic behind it. Good decisions are going to have bad outcomes.
- 51:12Speaker 2: Bad decisions is gonna have good outcomes. It's dfs, it's random.
- 51:16Speaker 2: That's always going to be the case. Our goal isn't
- 51:18Speaker 2: to just win tournaments. It's like winning tournaments is the
- 51:23Speaker 2: end goal of the process, which is to build good lineups,
- 51:28Speaker 2: to build the best lineup we can possibly build. And
- 51:31Speaker 2: so if you're evaluating things we say, maybe I make
- 51:34Speaker 2: an argument and you don't agree with it, you think, oh,
- 51:36Speaker 2: you know, what he's saying makes sense, But I think
- 51:38Speaker 2: he's missing this. So I'm still gonna play when I'm
- 51:41Speaker 2: playing great, I think that's the way to do it,
- 51:43Speaker 2: So evaluate the why in what we're saying and use
- 51:47Speaker 2: that to make your own decision.
- 51:49Speaker 1: Yeah. I love that answer, And like you said, like
- 51:50Speaker 1: the goal is obviously to win tournaments, but I think
- 51:53Speaker 1: when people confuse it like it's so many people and
- 51:54Speaker 1: I get it, and we're there with you. We've been
- 51:56Speaker 1: in the trenches, like you know, we played this game
- 51:58Speaker 1: for a long time. It's most people haven't won their
- 52:01Speaker 1: first tournament, so their goal is to just win a tournament.
- 52:05Speaker 1: But we're still trying to help you think about the
- 52:07Speaker 1: end goals to win as many tournaments as possible. Like
- 52:09Speaker 1: a golfer doesn't try a professional golfer doesn't just want
- 52:11Speaker 1: to win one major? Would they take that? Yes, it's
- 52:13Speaker 1: really hard to win a major, so that would be phenomenal,
- 52:16Speaker 1: but then they would still try and win more majors.
- 52:18Speaker 1: We're trying to set you up so you can have
- 52:19Speaker 1: a proven process and use it to make this repeatable
- 52:23Speaker 1: so that you can actually find your way to the tops,
- 52:24Speaker 1: get yourself in the position more often, which should lead
- 52:27Speaker 1: to hopefully winning a tournament and could and then more
- 52:31Speaker 1: tournaments after that because you start seeing the bigger picture
- 52:34Speaker 1: and how this stuff works, I don't if you want
- 52:35Speaker 1: to look good more.
- 52:36Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean not just that, but like it's also
- 52:39Speaker 2: what do we have control over. We don't have control
- 52:42Speaker 2: over whether we win the tournament or not. There's nothing
- 52:44Speaker 2: we can do ahead of time to guarantee that we're
- 52:46Speaker 2: going to win the tournament. What we can guarantee what
- 52:48Speaker 2: we do have total control over is the quality of
- 52:51Speaker 2: lineup that we submit. And so if that's your focus,
- 52:54Speaker 2: if the focus is just on doing the best you
- 52:56Speaker 2: can to build the best lineup you possibly can, let the.
- 52:59Speaker 3: Outcomes happened for you, you know.
- 53:01Speaker 2: And obviously if we could just snap our fingers and
- 53:05Speaker 2: win the tournament, we would. That's not how dvest works.
- 53:08Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. That's all like when people are are again,
- 53:10Speaker 1: the show's gonna be different than that for most, But
- 53:12Speaker 1: when people are like, oh, what's the play, who's the
- 53:14Speaker 1: best guy? I'm looking for the pick this week? That's
- 53:17Speaker 1: more sports betting, to be honest, Like when you look
- 53:19Speaker 1: at yes, it will be the end result of what
- 53:21Speaker 1: falls into your winning lineup if you get there. But
- 53:23Speaker 1: it's the concept of like a lot of that stuff
- 53:25Speaker 1: you can apply really well in props prop betting. Things
- 53:28Speaker 1: like that. That's easy, but obviously the better you get
- 53:30Speaker 1: it at that, and the more you win at that,
- 53:31Speaker 1: the less you can start putting down and the more
- 53:33Speaker 1: it becomes a bit of a tricky and a challenge.
- 53:35Speaker 1: With DFS, we can go play for a million dollars
- 53:37Speaker 1: every single Sunday, one hundred thousand, fifty twenty thousand, whatever
- 53:40Speaker 1: it is you want to play for. That option exists,
- 53:43Speaker 1: and then it comes down to more things that you
- 53:44Speaker 1: and I discuss in depth, usually like bankroll management, contest selection,
- 53:48Speaker 1: but this is really a lot more focused on lineup selection.
- 53:50Speaker 1: We're talking about how you get to a lineup for
- 53:53Speaker 1: a particular tournament, where most people are just telling you
- 53:55Speaker 1: a bunch of different plays across the board and all that.
- 53:57Speaker 1: We do stuff like that as well, but this show particular,
- 54:00Speaker 1: literally is focused around trying to get you set up
- 54:01Speaker 1: for single entry. And then if you want to extrapolate
- 54:04Speaker 1: it out, you're like, well, I like two of the
- 54:06Speaker 1: things they really said. I mean, that's how I typically am.
- 54:08Speaker 1: I have two or three times that I could land
- 54:10Speaker 1: with today. I guess we're all be playing those three
- 54:11Speaker 1: macs because it's still a smaller field. I'm balancing some
- 54:15Speaker 1: of them against each other, and then I put myself
- 54:17Speaker 1: in the position where hopefully one gets there or a
- 54:19Speaker 1: couple of the three are able to find their way
- 54:21Speaker 1: up and the other. If those two don't, maybe it's
- 54:24Speaker 1: something in the other one that makes it happen. So
- 54:25Speaker 1: you know, then you can get into how you balance
- 54:27Speaker 1: your portfolio and a term that I talk about a
- 54:29Speaker 1: lot that's not common in the industry, but it's called
- 54:32Speaker 1: portfolio manipulation. How do you manipulate your small number of
- 54:35Speaker 1: lineups in like a three max so that they can
- 54:37Speaker 1: actually play off of each other a little bit, so
- 54:40Speaker 1: that you can kind of put yourself in a better
- 54:42Speaker 1: position out of the gates. It's not cheating because it's
- 54:44Speaker 1: your own portfolio. It's your decisions. You could be way
- 54:46Speaker 1: wrong and just lose all three, but with your own
- 54:49Speaker 1: three lineups, you are allowed to pit them against each
- 54:51Speaker 1: other and play for that. And it's something that not
- 54:53Speaker 1: a lot of people talk about, and not a lot
- 54:54Speaker 1: of people do. They don't feel comfortable knowing that one
- 54:56Speaker 1: goes up, one goes down, or something like that. But
- 54:59Speaker 1: in some these winner take alls and satellites that you're
- 55:02Speaker 1: playing in and live final seats and things like that.
- 55:04Speaker 1: Sometimes it is better to do that because only one
- 55:07Speaker 1: can win anyway. So it's you know, do you want
- 55:08Speaker 1: to mix a couple of pieces or do you want
- 55:10Speaker 1: to go go all in for it.
- 55:11Speaker 2: So I did a big post on exactly that a
- 55:15Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago on my discord. It's yeah, it's
- 55:17Speaker 2: it's a really fun thing to think, to think about
- 55:19Speaker 2: and to talk about, and it's it's pretty events stuff,
- 55:21Speaker 2: but it's it's it's definitely something that like the guys
- 55:24Speaker 2: who have twenty lineups in the four thousand and MILLI
- 55:29Speaker 2: like every time, right, Like those guys are doing that
- 55:31Speaker 2: to an extreme level. And so that's also like one
- 55:34Speaker 2: of the things we talked about a lot last week
- 55:36Speaker 2: is like how to build a lineup when you have
- 55:38Speaker 2: a single bullet and why you actually need to think
- 55:41Speaker 2: through that when other people are gonna have twenty entries,
- 55:43Speaker 2: it's because they're doing exactly that, and so you need to,
- 55:46Speaker 2: like you need to kind of have defenses built into
- 55:50Speaker 2: your own linement in a way from all the inverse
- 55:52Speaker 2: correlation they're building into their lives.
- 55:54Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. Yeah, So, and I guess a lot I
- 55:57Speaker 1: don't know even you want to talk about Mooney, so
- 55:59Speaker 1: I don't want to miss that one. And then you know,
- 56:01Speaker 1: the chat had talked a little bit about the leverage
- 56:03Speaker 1: of like the Hampton Scataboo how to get different within them,
- 56:06Speaker 1: and I don't know if you're saving that one, but
- 56:08Speaker 1: I guess my point would be with that. Obviously, I
- 56:09Speaker 1: think there's interesting stuff with Herbert McConkey Gadson at tight end,
- 56:14Speaker 1: like no one's really seemingly getting there. And then you
- 56:16Speaker 1: also have obviously QJ and and Allen there as well,
- 56:20Speaker 1: a lot of mouths to feed, too hard to get
- 56:22Speaker 1: it right in some cases, but cheap enough to make
- 56:25Speaker 1: it work if you wanted to look for ways to
- 56:26Speaker 1: get different within those stacks. But you want to add
- 56:28Speaker 1: there on the Chargers Giants, and then the Mooney conversation
- 56:32Speaker 1: we can have as well.
- 56:34Speaker 2: There's not anything I want to add on Charges Giants.
- 56:36Speaker 2: The thing I'd say is, I don't think you need
- 56:38Speaker 2: to do anything beyond just playing Skataboo and Hampton together
- 56:42Speaker 2: to make that unique. Like I think that combinations already
- 56:44Speaker 2: to be unique enough because people don't like playing running
- 56:47Speaker 2: backs against each other.
- 56:49Speaker 3: So that's that's the first thing I'll say there.
- 56:51Speaker 2: The second thing is in regards to Mooney, we're talking
- 56:55Speaker 2: about a guy who' at eleven targets for one hundred
- 56:57Speaker 2: and twenty five air yards last week. They just connect
- 57:00Speaker 2: Penix was terrible. Penis missed him on wide open routes
- 57:03Speaker 2: a couple times, and then Mooney also had two bad drops.
- 57:07Speaker 3: Like it just the connection wasn't there.
- 57:09Speaker 2: The coach talked after the game about the fact that, look,
- 57:11Speaker 2: Mooney missed a lot of training camp, but he's a
- 57:12Speaker 2: huge part of the offense and quite frankly, like Mooney
- 57:15Speaker 2: did a really good job of earning those targets down
- 57:17Speaker 2: the field. That's to me is the is the part
- 57:19Speaker 2: of that performance that really has a lot of signal.
- 57:22Speaker 2: Is another good matchup here with a single, high heavy
- 57:25Speaker 2: team like Shaheed. He's also in a matchup where wide
- 57:28Speaker 2: receiver twos have crushed Washington and wide receiver ones have
- 57:33Speaker 2: struggled against Washington. So I think this is another really
- 57:36Speaker 2: good spot for Mooney and it's a great time to
- 57:38Speaker 2: go right back to him. And he's also the type
- 57:40Speaker 2: of guy who, like what is he forty seven hundred
- 57:43Speaker 2: dollars this week?
- 57:44Speaker 3: Like when he hits at that price.
- 57:46Speaker 2: It's not fifteen points, not sixteen points, it's twenty four,
- 57:49Speaker 2: twenty six, twenty eight. It's something that on this late
- 57:52Speaker 2: in particular, could be a massive, massive score and one
- 57:56Speaker 2: of the key players on the slate. So I really
- 57:57Speaker 2: like him this week. But again that doesn't mean go
- 58:00Speaker 2: play Mooney and Burden and Shaheed altogether max two in
- 58:06Speaker 2: single entry and you probably only want one.
- 58:08Speaker 1: And one of the interesting notes too, is like everybody
- 58:10Speaker 1: wanted Mariota last week for four thousand, he's five this week.
- 58:14Speaker 1: There're missing a ton of pieces, Like you could literally
- 58:16Speaker 1: fill out your lineup with whatever you wanted if you
- 58:19Speaker 1: went Mariota, Debo and Mooney and Deebo's actually a guy
- 58:23Speaker 1: that people want. They're just not clicking enough. Like it's
- 58:25Speaker 1: just the format of the slate is not allowing it
- 58:27Speaker 1: to happen enough the way people are going about it.
- 58:29Speaker 1: But that's what I'm saying. And something like a single entry,
- 58:31Speaker 1: especially a larger field single entry, that could be all
- 58:34Speaker 1: you need to do and then fill it out with
- 58:36Speaker 1: some of the other good stuff. And that's what I'm saying.
- 58:38Speaker 1: You don't need to be clicking every leave. We're not
- 58:39Speaker 1: at a casino, running the slot machines and trying to
- 58:41Speaker 1: go big ming mingman and try to hit all the jackpots.
- 58:44Speaker 1: You already are way off the board. But it's not
- 58:45Speaker 1: like it wouldn't make sense like Deebo could have a
- 58:47Speaker 1: big game here, they're missing a ton of pieces. A
- 58:50Speaker 1: Debo big game could be end rounds in BS, but
- 58:52Speaker 1: it could also be Mariota and then Mariota runs one
- 58:55Speaker 1: in connects on a couple, one of them is to Debo,
- 58:58Speaker 1: and then on the other side you got Move who
- 59:00Speaker 1: is almost like the Trey Tucker of this week, and
- 59:02Speaker 1: then it goes the other side if you want. I
- 59:04Speaker 1: mean there is people talking in the chat. I'm not
- 59:06Speaker 1: loving it for like single entry, but if you had
- 59:08Speaker 1: Pennix London Mooney and then run it back with Debo,
- 59:12Speaker 1: that would fill at all your wide receiver spots. At
- 59:14Speaker 1: least you'd be building it in a way that would
- 59:15Speaker 1: kind of combine everything we've talked about in the past. Alex,
- 59:18Speaker 1: like the London stuff typically requires the game to be
- 59:21Speaker 1: going off movie could be part of that as well.
- 59:23Speaker 1: Maybe that's like the Las Vegas stuff from last week.
- 59:26Speaker 1: It is going to be more a passing game. Typically
- 59:28Speaker 1: from Penix there. It would eliminate the bijon stuff, which
- 59:30Speaker 1: would you know, just keep the game going back and
- 59:32Speaker 1: forth and then Debo could be the guy on the
- 59:34Speaker 1: other side. But just of note, if that's a game
- 59:36Speaker 1: that you see that happening, that's ways that you could
- 59:38Speaker 1: build it. But then you really don't need to get
- 59:40Speaker 1: off the board. After that you're already off the board.
- 59:42Speaker 1: So I think that's kind of key, and I think
- 59:45Speaker 1: it's important. So all right, let's see. Let's see here
- 59:49Speaker 1: the you know, anything else at all with the combinations,
- 59:52Speaker 1: anything else you want to talk about within the second level.
- 59:55Speaker 1: If not, we can get to light at the end
- 59:56Speaker 1: of the lane. But just want to make sure we
- 59:58Speaker 1: covered everything this week.
- 59:59Speaker 2: Yeah, the last thing I'll say is I do think
- 1:00:01Speaker 2: this is another week where you can really use late swap.
- 1:00:04Speaker 2: So once again we have the Chicago game in the
- 1:00:07Speaker 2: late window, and in fact, maybe the move is to
- 1:00:10Speaker 2: build in the Chicago stack, and if you're behind the
- 1:00:12Speaker 2: eight ball and you think you need to catch up,
- 1:00:13Speaker 2: that's when you go to the ma Home stack, particularly
- 1:00:15Speaker 2: if you're using Worthy and Taekwon Thornon, like that's going
- 1:00:18Speaker 2: to be cheap enough where it probably can be a
- 1:00:21Speaker 2: one to one swap from Chicago stuff. The Los Angeles
- 1:00:27Speaker 2: game is also late, so that's another one you could
- 1:00:30Speaker 2: build in, and then maybe that swap goes to Lamar
- 1:00:33Speaker 2: Jackson thing if you need to deviate from from some chalk.
- 1:00:37Speaker 2: So definitely another week where we want to be thinking
- 1:00:40Speaker 2: about late swap. Hopefully everyone listening just kind of assumes
- 1:00:44Speaker 2: that that's always something that they should be thinking about,
- 1:00:47Speaker 2: but it's worth noting. I think when it sets up
- 1:00:50Speaker 2: as well as it does this week, just like it
- 1:00:52Speaker 2: did last.
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's something you should always be using.
- 1:00:55Speaker 1: But I think, like we said, why, I love this
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: week and I think we got a lot more into
- 1:00:57Speaker 1: it on all kinds of different angles that we talked about.
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: But it's the week. It's not like it wasn't as
- 1:01:02Speaker 1: fun every week of DFS. This is fun, especially when
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: it comes to NFL. But the idea of when there's
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: that one fifty point game in the afternoon, it really
- 1:01:08Speaker 1: throws people off a little bit and it kind of
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: does shape the slate versus this week. There's tons of
- 1:01:12Speaker 1: different plays and ways that are shaping the slate. I
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: hope we did a good job covering it. For you guys,
- 1:01:16Speaker 1: if you what was the one liner ahead earlier I said,
- 1:01:19Speaker 1: I if you like the show and want to see
- 1:01:22Speaker 1: it grow, make sure to hit the like and let
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: us know that was the rhyme for today. But yeah,
- 1:01:27Speaker 1: make sure you guys do hit that like button subscribe
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: to the channel. We do appreciate it. We love breaking
- 1:01:31Speaker 1: this stuff down and I know we've got a ton
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: of really good feedback, so we want to continue doing that.
- 1:01:35Speaker 1: But also let us know things you want to see
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: more of, hear more of. Keep throwing your questions in
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: the chat. We love all the engagement. It's a fun
- 1:01:41Speaker 1: time as we go throughout all right, Alex, We've made
- 1:01:44Speaker 1: it to the end, the light at the end of
- 1:01:47Speaker 1: the lane. And this is kind of like for people
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: that don't know, just like we talk about playing your
- 1:01:50Speaker 1: own lane, stay in your own lane, like you got
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: to take your way to the top. Could be a stack,
- 1:01:55Speaker 1: secondary stack, certain roster construction style for the week? What
- 1:01:59Speaker 1: is your average lane for this week? Week four?
- 1:02:02Speaker 2: So I'm not one hundred percent sure that I'm gonna
- 1:02:04Speaker 2: be using this because the thing I literally just mentioned,
- 1:02:07Speaker 2: like I think starting with Chicago, Las Vegas and being
- 1:02:11Speaker 2: ready to pivot to mahomes if you have to.
- 1:02:14Speaker 3: I do think that's a really sharp way to approach
- 1:02:15Speaker 3: the slate.
- 1:02:16Speaker 2: If I don't do that, it will be for a
- 1:02:18Speaker 2: Philly stack, and so that's going to be my leverage
- 1:02:21Speaker 2: lane here. AJ Brown is in a pretty good spot.
- 1:02:26Speaker 2: He has one of the best GPP scores for us
- 1:02:27Speaker 2: over at ftangpp s Court just basically tells us whether
- 1:02:30Speaker 2: a player is under owned or overowned and how underroowned
- 1:02:32Speaker 2: they are, and he's he is the second best GPP
- 1:02:35Speaker 2: scorre for wide receivers.
- 1:02:37Speaker 3: I think this is a phenomenal spot though for DeVante Smith.
- 1:02:40Speaker 3: Tampa loves to play zone, they love to blitz. Both
- 1:02:44Speaker 3: of those things have historically been very good for DeVante Smith,
- 1:02:47Speaker 3: and I just think we're seeing teams stack the box
- 1:02:51Speaker 3: against Philly in a way they did not do last
- 1:02:54Speaker 3: year because they were so afraid of particularly like the
- 1:02:58Speaker 3: single high opportunities for a J. Brown.
- 1:03:00Speaker 2: They're more willing to get Philly those opportunities this week.
- 1:03:03Speaker 2: I don't know for sure that they're going to do it,
- 1:03:05Speaker 2: but it sounded like after last week, the lesson Philly
- 1:03:09Speaker 2: learned was we've got to stop with this overly conservative
- 1:03:13Speaker 2: out of the gate game plan. We need to be
- 1:03:15Speaker 2: more aggressive down the field and let our passing game
- 1:03:18Speaker 2: set up our running game, and throwing teams out of
- 1:03:21Speaker 2: those stacked boxes is the way to do that, and
- 1:03:23Speaker 2: so I think there's a good chance Philly comes out
- 1:03:25Speaker 2: throws the ball really well. I also like Dallas Goddard,
- 1:03:28Speaker 2: so any double stack involving hurts, whether it's Brown and Smith,
- 1:03:32Speaker 2: Smith and Garter or Brown and Goddard, I think is
- 1:03:34Speaker 2: really strong. And I love the fact that there's a
- 1:03:37Speaker 2: very obvious bring back. Bucky Irving has one of the
- 1:03:40Speaker 2: best VPP scores for our running backs this week, and
- 1:03:44Speaker 2: we talked about how like this is a slate where
- 1:03:46Speaker 2: the floors are kind of good for guys, but I
- 1:03:48Speaker 2: don't see a ton of ceiling spots. Bucky is one
- 1:03:51Speaker 2: of those guys that I think has both The floor
- 1:03:53Speaker 2: should be there this week because they're without Mike Evans
- 1:03:56Speaker 2: and Mecha. Buka is probably going to get the Quinon
- 1:03:57Speaker 2: Mitchell treatment. Chris Godwin's not going to be one hundred
- 1:04:00Speaker 2: percent in his first game back and over a year,
- 1:04:03Speaker 2: so I think Bucky's gonna be heavily involved in the
- 1:04:05Speaker 2: passing game. Teams have been able to run the ball
- 1:04:08Speaker 2: against Philly so far this year. And man, if Bucky
- 1:04:11Speaker 2: just gets the touchdowns, like I think he's getting fifteen
- 1:04:14Speaker 2: DraftKings points no touchdowns. If you give him the touchdowns,
- 1:04:17Speaker 2: now he's got twenty five to thirty. If you then
- 1:04:20Speaker 2: also give him a ceiling game where like he's getting
- 1:04:22Speaker 2: over one hundred yards on the ground or maybe it's
- 1:04:25Speaker 2: five receptions, there's a thirty five point ceiling here for Bucky.
- 1:04:28Speaker 2: So and obviously the better Bucky does, the more likely
- 1:04:32Speaker 2: Philly is to have to continue to throw the ball
- 1:04:34Speaker 2: throughout the game. So I think to me, like this
- 1:04:37Speaker 2: is this is the game where it's not getting ownership,
- 1:04:41Speaker 2: but it has a chance to both shoot out and
- 1:04:44Speaker 2: shoot out in a way where all of the production
- 1:04:46Speaker 2: is really concentrating, you get some really big scores across
- 1:04:48Speaker 2: the board. So Philly Tampa Bay's my leverage wing.
- 1:04:51Speaker 1: Love that, and that would obviously be more than unique
- 1:04:53Speaker 1: enough to be able to plug in any of the
- 1:04:54Speaker 1: other thoughts we've given you without needing the super lever
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: plays or whatever you want to call him, of being
- 1:04:58Speaker 1: app able to do a bunch more like you say
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: you don't need to do that plus Mooney plus this,
- 1:05:02Speaker 1: plus that you can just get away with something like that.
- 1:05:05Speaker 1: You get Davonte, Smith, Goddard and Bucky and then you
- 1:05:08Speaker 1: build around that you can kind of do whatever you
- 1:05:09Speaker 1: want with the rest of the plays in the sense of,
- 1:05:11Speaker 1: you know, getting away with ownership because they don't have
- 1:05:13Speaker 1: much at all. I love that setup. I think it's
- 1:05:15Speaker 1: a very unique one for this slate. And I also
- 1:05:17Speaker 1: love it because the Tampa Bay side there's just so
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: many questionables and obviously ELTs in Evans and stuff like that,
- 1:05:23Speaker 1: where people are it's just gonna take them forever. If
- 1:05:26Speaker 1: they would even get to it, it would take till
- 1:05:27Speaker 1: Sunday morning when things become more clear and we just
- 1:05:30Speaker 1: know like late swap the la and late swap stands
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: for laziness. It gets you closer to that word. It
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: is late and lazy. But you can't see you see
- 1:05:37Speaker 1: people not you know, ready to like to swap their
- 1:05:40Speaker 1: lineups as a whole. They've already built them late Saturday
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: night or early Sunday morning. Like I'm not gonna move
- 1:05:45Speaker 1: on this. If that helps me, it helps you, it
- 1:05:47Speaker 1: hurts me, it hurts me, I'll leave it. And it
- 1:05:49Speaker 1: can Jalen hurts you if you don't go to that.
- 1:05:51Speaker 1: If that's the case, it did last week, it just
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: wasn't full. I mean it wasn't really needed, but he
- 1:05:54Speaker 1: scored the most. I think he had thirty plus DK points,
- 1:05:57Speaker 1: So I like that call quite a bit. Mine is
- 1:05:59Speaker 1: gonna be waiting on some injury news as well, But
- 1:06:03Speaker 1: like I said, I think Adams is gonna play through that.
- 1:06:05Speaker 1: And I mentioned it earlier the all the love for Puka,
- 1:06:07Speaker 1: there's a lot of love for that game, but first
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: of all, Daniel Jones, I'm not gonna use the same
- 1:06:11Speaker 1: as last week, but he's behind those other quarterbacks. Still
- 1:06:13Speaker 1: not enough people wanting to go to that. You could
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: definitely stack up that side. And nobody likes Matt Stafford
- 1:06:18Speaker 1: and stacking him, But with Davante, he has been going
- 1:06:21Speaker 1: with more deep balls. And if Davante's in there, I
- 1:06:23Speaker 1: think one of the most interesting ways is and you
- 1:06:25Speaker 1: have a guy like Mitchell who again using him in
- 1:06:28Speaker 1: this way I think really makes some unique That's why
- 1:06:30Speaker 1: I saved it. If you have Stafford, Pooka, Adams, Mitchell
- 1:06:34Speaker 1: can kind of do whatever I want. And like you said,
- 1:06:37Speaker 1: in order for Pooka to get rolling. It's gonna take
- 1:06:39Speaker 1: something from the other side probably to really get it
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: that back and forth out of the safety zone. I
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: don't want the safety zone Pooka. I want the forty
- 1:06:45Speaker 1: plus Pooka on this slate to break it. And everyone
- 1:06:48Speaker 1: will say, oh, but the chaltgut there. How many people
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: have him with Adams, with Stafford, with Mitchell on the
- 1:06:54Speaker 1: other side, and he gets forty it could mean twenty
- 1:06:56Speaker 1: for Adams or that like, it could be some split
- 1:06:58Speaker 1: between them twenty five and twenty eight. Whatever those numbers
- 1:07:01Speaker 1: look like. Stafford is cheap enough, Mitchell's cheap enough. I
- 1:07:05Speaker 1: like the spot and even in single entry while some
- 1:07:07Speaker 1: of those guys are getting touched on for ownership wise,
- 1:07:09Speaker 1: I don't think there's gonna be enough people going with
- 1:07:12Speaker 1: the whole quad there, and it fills out all your
- 1:07:14Speaker 1: wide receiver slots, so you can just start plugging in
- 1:07:16Speaker 1: the running backs that you like and then see how
- 1:07:17Speaker 1: the lineup shapes out for you. But that's gonna be
- 1:07:20Speaker 1: my leverage lane for this week. Final thoughts, Alex, anything
- 1:07:22Speaker 1: else you want to add before we get out of here.
- 1:07:23Speaker 2: My friend, I really like this call. We have both
- 1:07:27Speaker 2: Jones and Stafford under ten percent. I think you're one
- 1:07:29Speaker 2: hundred percent right that people are very much looking to
- 1:07:35Speaker 2: get exposure to this game, but they're not looking to
- 1:07:37Speaker 2: overstack the game.
- 1:07:38Speaker 3: I think that's a really good approach.
- 1:07:39Speaker 2: And all of the combination combination ownership that we've talked
- 1:07:44Speaker 2: about that applies to mini stacks we want to be
- 1:07:47Speaker 2: careful of does not apply to full on game stacks,
- 1:07:50Speaker 2: because the big difference is in the mini stack, you're
- 1:07:55Speaker 2: hoping that the game doesn't just completely explode and that
- 1:07:58Speaker 2: everyone in the game does really well, because then you're
- 1:08:00Speaker 2: going to get beat by all the people who have
- 1:08:02Speaker 2: stacked it. And even when it's not going to be
- 1:08:04Speaker 2: super popular that the game is going to be stacked,
- 1:08:06Speaker 2: it is going to be stacked fully, So you don't
- 1:08:09Speaker 2: want to be beaten by those teams. So you're like,
- 1:08:11Speaker 2: you're you're trying to thread this small needle where you
- 1:08:15Speaker 2: get positive correlation out of it, but not in the
- 1:08:17Speaker 2: way where the game as a hole goes off. Of course,
- 1:08:20Speaker 2: when you're full stacking the game, you do benefit from
- 1:08:23Speaker 2: the whole game going off. And so uh, then like
- 1:08:26Speaker 2: we have irrefutable evidence that double stacks with bringbacks especially
- 1:08:31Speaker 2: are still heavily underplayed, particularly in single entries. So yeah,
- 1:08:35Speaker 2: I'm one hundred percent with you. I think it's a
- 1:08:37Speaker 2: really good way to get exposure to that game. Like
- 1:08:40Speaker 2: if you love anyone on the cult side and you
- 1:08:43Speaker 2: think Pooka's a great play, one hundred percent, the best
- 1:08:46Speaker 2: path to that, to getting exposure to both sides is
- 1:08:49Speaker 2: to full stack the game. Many stacks aren't the way
- 1:08:51Speaker 2: to do it. Just go all in on the game.
- 1:08:53Speaker 1: Yeah, That's how I always see it, And like I said, again,
- 1:08:55Speaker 1: you know everybody did. That's what happens when people start
- 1:08:57Speaker 1: to say, well, of course the Puka jack got there,
- 1:09:00Speaker 1: but then they don't have it with something that would
- 1:09:01Speaker 1: actually get it there. Fully, Like if Puka has a
- 1:09:03Speaker 1: forty point game, it's very likely Stafford had a great
- 1:09:06Speaker 1: game at load of no ownership under ten percent, especially
- 1:09:09Speaker 1: in the single injury stuff that we're talking about. So
- 1:09:11Speaker 1: things like that are just ways to think about it differently.
- 1:09:13Speaker 1: Hopefully we gave you guys a ton Alex. Let the
- 1:09:15Speaker 1: people know everything you got going on where they can
- 1:09:17Speaker 1: find you, and then I'll do the same and we'll
- 1:09:18Speaker 1: get out of here.
- 1:09:19Speaker 2: Everything for me goes through my Twitter at alex plica one.
- 1:09:23Speaker 2: Whether you want access to the GPB scores or all
- 1:09:25Speaker 2: the data that I talked about through ftan Fantasy, use
- 1:09:28Speaker 2: promo code click there for ten percent off. And then
- 1:09:30Speaker 2: if you want my discord where I'm talking all the
- 1:09:32Speaker 2: deep strategy stuff like how to make if you have
- 1:09:36Speaker 2: three lineups in a three entry contest, how to get
- 1:09:38Speaker 2: the most out of those three liners by making them
- 1:09:40Speaker 2: adversely correlated things of that nature, My discord is the
- 1:09:43Speaker 2: best place for that.
- 1:09:44Speaker 3: Also props and pick them over.
- 1:09:46Speaker 2: There been really hammering and I think I have something
- 1:09:48Speaker 2: like twelve place this week, really really love a lot
- 1:09:51Speaker 2: of them. So go through my Twitter to get that
- 1:09:54Speaker 2: link and you can use promo code leverage there.
- 1:09:56Speaker 1: Yeah, we got an international game this week too, so
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: you guys, if you're thinking about there's a showdown slate
- 1:10:01Speaker 1: in the morning, you can wake up early for it.
- 1:10:03Speaker 1: And then we got a full slate of games ahead
- 1:10:04Speaker 1: and then of course the evening Showdown Monday this week
- 1:10:07Speaker 1: I believe is a Yeah, it's a two gamer again.
- 1:10:09Speaker 1: We're back to the two game Monday night er. So
- 1:10:11Speaker 1: a lot of fun stuff coming up, a ton of football.
- 1:10:13Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys, thanks again for the feedback. Make sure
- 1:10:15Speaker 1: to hit the like button subscribe to the channel if
- 1:10:17Speaker 1: you want to sign up at ship at nation dot com.
- 1:10:19Speaker 1: Weve got a ton of different promos going on. You
- 1:10:21Speaker 1: can add me on Twitter at totag and tambo. I
- 1:10:23Speaker 1: help take care of you for Alex for myself totagging
- 1:10:26Speaker 1: tambo good luck this week and let ship it