Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 258 - 4/16/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 258 - 4/16/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 258 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
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week, halfway through the month of April.
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Man, time flies. Feels like we finally got out of
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winter. Spring feels like it's fully
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upon us. Before you know it, it'll be
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summertime. But before then we got some
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betting to talk about a big slate here for tonight, guys
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looking at a 15 game Major League Baseball slate as well as
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right back to the NBA postseason as we are now fully in progress
1:04
here with the play in tournament.
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I do have for you guys today a four pack of plays, including
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three Major League Baseball bats.
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Going to see if we can continue to get some of these favorites
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to come through for us. Sharp line moves, sharp mush
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edges, bunch of system matches. And then also I have another NBA
1:22
play for you where we continue to play in tournament.
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And there's one total in particular which has moved quite
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a bit. And I'm thinking it's moved too
1:29
much and we should actually either buy low or sell high.
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A little bit of a little bit of a tease there, but I'll tell you
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what that is. We do have the heat in the
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bulls, The Mavericks and the kings.
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Now before we dive into our sweats here for tonight, guys,
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as I mentioned, a four pack on tap 3 MLB, one NBA.
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Looking back toward yesterday, I do want to 1st thank everyone
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who tuned into the Rhythm Lab with Josh Applebaum as it's
1:52
newly newly titled here. Remember, we did our rhythm live
1:55
streams every Tuesday for college hoops throughout the
1:58
season. Prior to that, we had the Sunday
2:00
stream with myself and James Santor.
2:03
But starting yesterday, we've changed now to the Rhythm Lab.
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So every Tuesday, 4:00, you can jump right in, stream live on
2:10
Twitter and we're going to talk all different sports.
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Whole point is, it's not just college anymore.
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College is over. So we talked a lot of NBA
2:17
yesterday, a lot of MLB. Before you know it, we'll have
2:20
WNBA here coming up as well. So reminder every Tuesday, 4:00
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I saw some familiar faces in last night's live stream.
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So it was great. I hope to see you guys next
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Tuesday. You can bank on that each
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Tuesday moving forward. The Rhythm Lab with myself, Josh
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Applebaum. But looking at the plays
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yesterday, guys eked out another winning day.
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So second straight winning day to start the week.
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We will take it 3 and 2 + 0.32 units.
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Had a great hit there with the Atlanta Orlando under in the
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play and tournament under 219 1/2.
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Boy, that was looking really, really good going into the
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fourth quarter. And then they absolutely
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exploded with points and it got very dicey at the end.
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But thank the Lord they put in the scrubs, they stopped pushing
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the the tempo and it landed on 2/15.
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So those play in unders. I had another winner there also.
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We had the Rangers come through a Major League Baseball nice 4
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nothing win. That was a nothing nothing game
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deep into was it the 7th inning? Then Texas broke it open a
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little bit one for nothing with that good sharp line move in
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their favor. Beat the closing line and they
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close closer like -135 we got them around -120 and also had a
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nice hit with the fills. They're up two O they blew it.
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Then they got down, then they roared back and held on for A6
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four win at home against the San Francisco G men.
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Losers were the Orioles really had no shot in that game.
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Charlie Morton got lit up. Maybe I'm going to have to start
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to fade Charlie more and I think he maybe is on his last legs in
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MLB here. But then also unfortunately, you
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know, we're kind of free rolling there late in the night. 3 and
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one with our first four bats and if we if we got San Diego would
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have been four and one of the huge plus money payout.
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San Diego did take a one nothing lead on a Machado home run.
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Then it was 1 to one went into extra innings.
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San Diego had some chances to win it unfortunately couldn't
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push a run across. They lost 2 to 1.
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So what are you going to do? But either way, guys, when
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you're betting on sports, the goal is to have as many positive
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winning days as possible to a little little 2 day winning
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streak here to start off our week.
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So as always, whether you're 2 days in a in a row winning, two
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days in a row losing, the challenge is, is, is kind of the
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same, even though it's somewhat different.
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When you're hot, the challenge is to get right back into the
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arena and post another winning day.
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When you're struggling and or you're cold, your goal is to
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scratch and claw and get back to a, to a winner's circle.
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So either way, guys, that's what we're going to do today with a
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four pack of MLB and NBA plays. So I want to start off with some
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NBA today because as as I mentioned here, we do have a
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double header. We got the Heat and the Bulls at
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7:30. We got the Mavs and the Kings at
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10:00. And I want to focus on the late
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game Mavericks and the Kings. Now this is your 9th place, 1st,
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10th place game. We do have another play in here.
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Mavericks come in 39 and 43, Sacramento Kings 40 and 42, so
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both hovering around 500. I couldn't believe it.
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Nico Harrison, who made that terrible dodge trade I saw in an
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article yesterday where he said I have no regrets.
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Like, yeah, no regrets, dude, you made a terrible trade and
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now your, your fans are rioting and no one wants to buy any
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tickets. So I always think it's
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ridiculous people say I have no regrets.
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Really. You're you're tough guy.
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You did everything right. What's wrong with admitting you
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made a mistake? I know probably you can't if
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you're AGM here, but that's just kind of was annoying to me.
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Nico Harrison, what a dumb trade.
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And then he he he doesn't regret it at all.
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Yeah, OK, buddy. But anyway, who cares about
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that? I have a play in the total now.
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In terms of the side, didn't really have much of A lean
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either way. We did open the Kings around -5
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at one point they got down to 4 1/2 and then back up to five.
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Now they're hovering 5, four and a half.
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So really nothing huge either way.
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I did notice the bet splits public here tonight is backing
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Sacramento 67% of bets, 80% of dollars at DraftKings.
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But at Circa split actually looks a little better for the
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Mavs, 31% bets, 46% dollars. So line really hasn't moved at
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all. Bet splits look different at
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both books. I really want no part of this
6:20
side here, but I am going to buy low and play this over tonight.
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Now you might say to yourself, Josh, what are you doing?
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You know these playing unders are doing great.
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They split one and one yesterday we got the under with the Hawks
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game, but that Warriors Grizzlies game went way over.
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But I'm thinking we've had too big of an adjustment downward
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with this total and it's an opportunity to buy low and play
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the over. So this Mavericks Kings total,
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it opened as high as like 2/22/19, 2:19 and a half
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somewhere around there. And we have to fully admit that
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a lot of under money has come in.
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So that total around 2:19, 2/20 has gotten all the way down to
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basically two 13213 and a half 214.
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So it's really, really, really tumbled and we got to say, hey,
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you know, early batters looks like they hammered the under
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2/22/19, 2:18 and a half 'cause that thing to fall.
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But then I said to myself, you know what, this has fallen so
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much. Does it create an opportunity to
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buy low and get a really, really deflated overplay?
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So I'm not going to call this a sharp play because it looks like
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the sharp money was under early on.
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But again, sharps liked it under 2/19, 2:20.
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Do they still like it under 214? I think that's a questionable
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question of you can definitely ask yourself, but I'm looking at
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the over 213 1/2. I got over 213 1/2 -, 1 O 5 at
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Caesar's. So that might be your your best
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number here. Again, 213 1/2.
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There are some 2 fourteens out there.
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So try to get the 213 F. It almost mattered last night
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getting the hook with a 219 and F.
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But anyway, here are my thoughts and reasons to go over 1 is just
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you're buying low on a total that's really, really fallen
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quite a bit. Secondly, if we dig into some of
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the analytics, there are some things to like about hopefully
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this game going over. Offensive efficiency.
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Sacramento is #8 in the NBA, Dallas is #14 so both teams are
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top half and offensive efficiency, defensive
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efficiency, they're both not very good.
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Sacramento is 23rd, Dallas is 21st.
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So their top half offense, they're both bottom half
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defense. We do have a short spread spread
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of about 4 1/2 or five. So short spread is typically
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good for an over. Typically you're going to think
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it's a competitive game back and forth, you know, maybe get
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fouls, make your free throws, maybe you have to go to
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overtime. Always like a short spread,
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basically 5 or less for an over and a big spread, usually like
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10 or more if you want to play the under in particular, these
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two teams have been over teams this year.
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Now, I know you had Doncic and Kyrie, and obviously you know
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the Kings have had some changes as well, but overall style of
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play, we got two over teams. The Mavericks went 45 and 37 to
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the over this year, 55%. When The Mavericks are on the
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road, they went 27 and 15 to the over 64%.
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The Kings 42 and 39 to the over overall 52%, but the Kings at
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home, 23 and 17 to the over 58%. Now, if this was just a classic,
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you know, good offense, bad defense, they both are over
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teams. Let's buy low play the over.
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That might be enough for me to play it.
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But then I popped open my rhythm app and when I looked at my
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rhythm system matches for this game, the first thing I noticed
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is that one, I have all systems lighting up on the over and
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secondly, all three systems are green star recommended bets.
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They're not caution flags, they're not leans.
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They are all recommended plays and if you're in the rhythm app
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and talk about this on the live stream on Tuesdays, how to
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interpret the you know the models because you may have just
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one model like your pre built model that rhythm gave you or if
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you're like me, you kind of like to create your own models.
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So I've one model that looks at I think it's 3 point shooting
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and free throw shooting. Other model that looks at I want
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to see more into rebounding or maybe it was pace, but you can
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again take the pre built model rhythm gives you or you can
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create your own. All three of my models are
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playing the over and not only are they all in the over.
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So it's not like you know, 2 over and one under or two unders
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and one over. They're all over.
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They're all green stars. Green stars means that they are
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official recommended bets from from rhythm because they went
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through all the checks and balances and rhythm says, hey,
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we're confident in this play. We're going to officially
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recommend it. But in terms of all three
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models, here are the final, you know, combined totals that all
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three models are predicting. First one is a 110.4 to one O
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6.5 game. Add those up, that's 216.9.
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Second model, 110.6 to one O 6.2 to 16.8.
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My last model, my Josh model, 111.9 to one O 7.2 to 19.1.
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So 216.9 to 16.8 and 219.1 in order to cash our over 213 F, we
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need 214. So this is what I look for, you
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know, if I can hopefully align, you know, maybe a buy low, sell
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high or maybe just a standard sharp play or maybe a, you know,
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contrarian opportunity. But also, you know, trends in
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terms of a specific team, you know, leaning to the over or the
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under or offensive, defensive efficiency.
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But really in particular, it's these rhythm predictions here
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that make me excited to buy low and play this over again.
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All predicting around two 17219 / 213 F We need 214.
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So that's a decent, you know, three to five point edge the
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current number versus what rhythm is predicting.
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So it's falling so much I'm thinking we have an opportunity
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to buy low and and play this over.
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So I'm going to trust these rhythm system matches and I'm
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playing the over 213 1/2 Mavericks and Kings.
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I got that minus one O 5 little bit reduced juice at Caesar's.
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Let's get some points. Mavericks and Kings Now back
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over to Major League Major League Baseball as we love
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sweating MLB on a daily basis. Again, I always joke, but it's
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something about just the routine.
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You wake up every day knowing you got 15 more MLB games to
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sweat and breakdown. And I also like the fact that
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with so many games, you don't have to force it, just like pick
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and choose a couple here that are catching our eye.
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You know, the old me used to have like 78910 baseball bets a
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night on a 15 game slate. Now I've kind of learned to
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embrace the less is more concept because again, you'd love to go,
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you know, 7:00 and 1:00 and have a huge night, but you could
12:44
easily go one and seven and have a terrible night.
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So let's try to isolate our bets.
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And you know, joke that, you know, I kind of always mentioned
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here, I mentioned my first book, the everything guide to sports
12:54
betting. But you know, if you have a
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glass of wine a night, you know, that's not bad.
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You know, moderation, you know, some some people say red wine is
13:02
good for the heart, But if you have 10 glasses of wine a night,
13:06
you got a problem. So again, less is more and only
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try to get down on the games that again, are you are you
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basically interpreting that they're providing an edge or an
13:15
advantage over the book or just matching a lot of systems with
13:18
some good sharp moves? So that being said, here's a
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three pack first game I want to hit on 6:45 PM Eastern Time.
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We're going right back to Citizens Bank Ballpark.
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Last night got a win with the Phills.
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Can they do it again tonight? Intent.
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So pitching match up here we have the Giants going with the
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lefty Robbie Ray 33 and O this year, 2.93 ERA.
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Phills are going to go with Aaron Nola O and three 5.51 ERA.
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By the way, I forgot to mention this is the the third game of a
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four-game series. The Giants won the opener 3:50
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as a - 1 O 5 Rd. dog. Giants are now 12:00 and 5:00 on
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the year. Philly's, of course, bounce back
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with a big win for us last night, 6 to 4 as a -, 160 home
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favorite. Phills are now 10 and seven on
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the year. So what I've seen across the
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market in this one, well, one way steam in favor of the
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Phills. Philly's open this game around a
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-, 130 home favorite and we've seen Philly get steamed up -130
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up to now -145 some shops are even inching closer to -150 so
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one way movement all in favor of the Phills at home.
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Now let's look at the bet splits at DraftKings.
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The Phillies are getting 72% of money line bets, 74% of money
14:29
line dollars. So but a bit of a pro and Joe
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bet split at DraftKings. But I was really interested in
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the bet split at Circa out in Vegas in the desert.
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The Phillies are getting only 44% of money line bets, but 99%
14:44
of money line dollars, a massive low bets, higher dollar split
14:47
telling us the sharps out in Vegas are really getting down
14:50
hard on the Phillies, which aligns with the big steam in
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favor of the Phillies. Now let's get to our system
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matches. I got a lot of matches lighting
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up here on Philadelphia Home favorites 112 and 58 this
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season, 66% nine percent ROI. Home favorites with a winning
15:06
record 54 and 2172% with a 16% ROI.
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Non division home favorites off a win with steam $0.10 or more.
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They are 28976% this year with a 23% ROI.
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Just in in general, the non division favorite always like
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that because the lack of familiarity really benefits
15:26
quote UN quote the better team. Philly also has some good
15:29
correlative betting value. We're seeing this line get
15:31
steamed up toward Philadelphia again, closer to -150 and the
15:35
total in this game is 8 really just under.
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And some books are even down to 7 1/2.
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So the fair amount of expected run scored, again, more likely
15:44
to come from quote UN quote, that better team.
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Lastly, I'm going to bank on the bats of Philly.
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They're hitting 254 this year against lefties.
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That's the 7th best in baseball. They're facing off against
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Robbie Ray, the lefty tonight, and also hitting 266 at home
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this year. That's the 9th best batting
16:01
average at home. Meanwhile, the G men are only
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hitting 212 on the road, 20th in baseball, and only hitting 233
16:08
against righty's, also 20th in baseball.
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So Phil's won for us last night. I'm going right back to Citizens
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Bank Ballpark, and I'm a root for the Phil's James Santoris.
16:17
Phil's again, good steam in their favor -130 up to -145 good
16:23
bat split, tons of system matches, correlative betting,
16:26
non division favorite. And also, by the way, Philly
16:29
when I popped open the Juice Reel app is posting a 42% sharp
16:34
mush edge. So 42% more of the winning
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betters who have downloaded Juice Reel and synced up their
16:40
sports books are going with Philly as opposed to the more
16:43
losing betters who are leaning San Fran.
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So first time we'll leave that tonight.
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Be great to start off with a winner.
16:49
Let's go Philadelphia. I got the phills -145 that's
16:52
available right now still at Bet MGM and Caesars.
16:56
Next one for you, let's go to the South side of Chicago, 7:40
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PM Eastern Time, First pitch, the A's and the White Sox.
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Now the A's come in seven and 10 on the year.
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They just cruised to a big win last night and the opener
17:09
against the White Sox. They won 12 to three as a -, 160
17:12
Rd. favorite. In the rematch tonight, the A's
17:14
are going to go with the ready Osvaldo Bido.
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He's one and one with an ERA of three.
17:19
Meanwhile, the White Sox were 4 and 12.
17:21
They're going to go with the righty Jonathan Cannon O and 2
17:24
ERA of 5.79. So what do we see across the
17:27
market here? Well, this game opened athletics
17:31
around a -, 145 -, 150 Rd. favorite and we have seen ain't
17:36
broke, don't fix it. Smart money because as rolled
17:38
last night, played the A's here to win again tonight as the A's
17:42
have gone from -145 -, 150 now up to -155 and most books now
17:49
-160 I jumped on the A's a little bit earlier today at
17:52
-154. I think the best price right now
17:55
is still FanDuel -158. So one way steam in favor of the
17:59
A's. Now.
18:00
That's what's look pretty good on the athletics here at
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DraftKings. 83% of money line bets, 91% of money line dollars
18:08
are on the A's. If you'll get Circa, only 50%
18:11
bets but 98% dollars on the A's. So both books, the National
18:16
DraftKings and the wise guy Desert Circa sports book are
18:19
heavy here in terms of dollars on the oak.
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I did, I did. I said I wouldn't do what I did
18:24
at the Oakland A's. Not the Oakland A's.
18:26
You notice how they're just listed as the Ath Athletics.
18:28
I was always used to seeing them.
18:30
Oak Oak. Pretty soon they'll be the
18:32
LVALVA's Las Vegas A's. But anyway, hefty betting here,
18:38
dollars and movement toward the A's.
18:39
A lot of the system matches here on the A's as well.
18:43
Favorites with line movement in their direction are one O 7 and
18:46
62 this year, 63 percent, 5% ROI if you're a favorite -150 or
18:52
more. 70 and 33 this year, 68 percent, 4% ROI if you are a
18:58
below 500 favorite playing an opponent who missed the playoffs
19:01
the previous year. Those teams are 45 and 2663%
19:05
with a 6% ROI. So all lighting up on the A's
19:09
similar to that Philly match system match.
19:12
We have the A's with a non division favorite designation
19:16
here, lack of familiarity benefiting the better team and
19:19
favorite low total total. This one is 8.
19:22
It has gotten down to seven and a half.
19:24
A big reason for that is the wind blowing in tonight for the
19:27
the White Sox. But again, fair amount of
19:29
expected runs scored. More likely to come from quote
19:31
UN quote that better team. Once again, I'm going to bank on
19:34
the A's bats hopefully coming to play tonight.
19:37
Just like they put up 12 runs last night in the opener.
19:39
But they have a big edge at the plate.
19:41
They're hitting 24823 homers, 77 runs scored.
19:45
White Sox are only hitting 200 with 11 homers and 53 runs
19:49
scored. If we dig a little deeper, the
19:51
A's are hitting 240 against righty's this year.
19:54
That is 14th in baseball. White Sox rating 2O2 against
19:57
righty's 29th. A's are also hitting 254 on the
20:01
road, 5th best in baseball. White Sox rating two O 9 at
20:04
home, 29th. So seems like the obvious play,
20:08
but it's sometimes notable to me that even though it's obvious on
20:11
paper, White Sox stink. A's crushed him in the opener.
20:15
Wise guys aren't saying it's obvious, but our numbers say the
20:18
opposite, so let's go opposite. No?
20:19
Looks like sharps here are playing the obvious side as
20:21
well, so I'm going with the A's. Shop around, I got the the
20:25
athletics -154 again, best price now is around -158 -, 160 at
20:31
FanDuel. Last bet of the night.
20:34
Wouldn't you know it, we're going to.
20:36
We have an opportunity to fade our favorite pitcher to fade.
20:40
You know who it is, Patrick Corbin.
20:42
But eight O 5 Eastern Time. Let's go right back to Texas.
20:45
The Rangers had a big win for us last night, but as sports
20:48
bettors, you know you're going to do it all the time.
20:50
You're going to bet one team one night they come through for you
20:53
and the next night you're going to bet against them or vice
20:55
versa. Because each game is its own
20:57
stand alone matchup and we're taking each game on its own
21:00
merits. So Angels, Rangers eight O 5.
21:03
Tonight we got the Rangers coming in 10 and seven.
21:05
They won last night's series opener. 4.
21:07
Nothing took care of business for us as a -, 135 home
21:10
favorite. The rematch tonight, the A's or
21:12
sorry, the Angels 9:00 and 7:00 on the year are going to go with
21:15
the ready Jose Soriano 2 and 12.7 O ERA.
21:20
The Rangers, meanwhile, are going with Patrick Corbin.
21:23
Patrick Corbin Sirens going off. You know what that means?
21:27
It's fade Patrick Corbin Day Corbin O&O 6.75 ERA this year.
21:31
So what have you seen across the market?
21:33
Well, this game opened with the Angels listed around a very
21:36
short -115 Rd. favorite, and boy, the sharps were locked and
21:41
loaded and ready to fade. Corbin, because we've seen
21:43
nothing but steam in favor of the Angels.
21:46
Angels open -115 Angels are now up to around -130 some shops
21:51
even as high as -135 S. Nothing but one way steam in
21:55
favor of the Halos. Now that's what's pretty good on
21:58
the Angels. 59% bets 82% dollars at DraftKings. 58% bets, 66%
22:05
dollars at Circa. So both DraftKings and Circa are
22:08
really good low bets, higher dollar split and really not that
22:11
you know, not that overwhelming 59% of DraftKings, 58% at Circa
22:15
in terms of the ticket count. But heavy money of course tells
22:18
us that even though the public is kind of only slightly leaning
22:22
Angels, all that big money in the line movement is going with
22:25
the angels. Now Angels match a few systems
22:28
here. One that I really like is
22:30
favorites off a loss. It's just our classic bounce
22:32
back spot. You're expected to win, you're
22:34
off a loss. You're trying to get back into
22:36
the win column. Favorites off a loss this year
22:38
are 70 and 3467% with a 14% ROI. And you knew it.
22:44
You know I was going to get to it.
22:45
Here it is. Fade Corbin Day fading Patrick
22:49
Corbin, a top wise guy betting system, has gone 90 and 4766%
22:55
with a 9% ROI since 2020. So since the COVID year, I
22:59
remember Corbin was really good. He helped him win a title, sign
23:02
that big contract or did he? Yeah, I forget.
23:07
Did he win that one with the Nats?
23:08
I believe so. Anyway, he has been a favorite
23:11
to fade ever since. So I ain't going to reinvent the
23:14
wheel. Let's fade Corbin today angels.
23:17
I'm going to bank on their bats hopefully showing up and getting
23:20
to Corbin early and often. Angels are hitting 233 this
23:23
year. Thirty home runs, 75 runs
23:26
scored. Rangers are only hitting 21218
23:29
homers, 55 runs scored. Texas, by the way, going up
23:32
against the righty, they're only hitting 206 against righty's.
23:35
That's 27th and Major League Baseball.
23:37
So I probably should have just said, hey, it's fade Patrick
23:40
Corbin day. But we got a an opportunity to
23:43
fade Corbin along with a sharp move on the Angels.
23:46
So I'm going with the Halos in this one.
23:47
Guys, shop around. I got the angels -130 at
23:51
FanDuel, so Phil's A's Angels. Can we find a way to get two out
23:55
of three? That is the goal.
23:58
So that about does it for episode 258 of the All Systems
24:01
Go Sports Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
24:03
This is the part of the pod, of course, where we wrap things up
24:06
and I start first by saying thank you.
24:08
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
24:10
busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
24:13
sharp data-driven breakdowns with me.
24:16
If you do enjoy this pod, you value the insights win, lose or
24:19
draw, whether you tail, you fade or you just, you know, sit back
24:22
and just want to listen to some some breakdowns, that's OK as
24:25
well. But if you do enjoy the pod and
24:27
you want to help me grow the pod, could you please do me a
24:29
solid by giving this podcast a five star review?
24:33
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes would go a long way to
24:36
helping us again to continue to continue the the momentum of the
24:40
ASG pod. If you want to leave a nice
24:43
comment in the review section or if you want to click the follow
24:46
button, that way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day or
24:49
recommend the pod to a friend. Those would all be very much
24:52
welcomed on my end. Next, if you enjoy this style of
24:56
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrain betting, Did you
24:59
notice I'm not talking about what I think will happen, what I
25:02
want will happen, what I hope will happen.
25:04
No, we bet games not with bias and gut instinct, but based on
25:07
what the market is telling us because the market's efficient.
25:10
The market is is really what we want to respect.
25:13
It doesn't mean that every single sharp moves going to win,
25:16
but more often than not, long term, following the smart money
25:19
going against the public, going with the house, that is going to
25:22
be a winning recipe. But if you want to learn more
25:24
about data-driven betting, you have someone in your life who's
25:27
new to betting who wants to bet, has no idea where to start.
25:30
Or maybe you just want to let me know you appreciate the pod,
25:32
then you know what you should do.
25:33
You should go to Amazon.com and type in the everything guide to
25:38
sports betting. It's my baby.
25:40
I wrote that book 2019 very proud of it.
25:42
I think it still stands the test of time.
25:45
It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
25:47
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
25:50
locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
25:53
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
25:55
management plan, all included in the everything guide to sports
25:59
betting. So pick one up and and you know,
26:02
if you also really want to make my day, you should go pre-order
26:05
my new book. It's called the NFL sharp
26:07
betting playbook comes out August 12th.
26:10
I'm actually going through my final edits with my my editor
26:13
right now before it goes to the printing press comes out August
26:17
12th. But you can pre-order it now and
26:19
make my day and make the publishers day and then you'll
26:22
get dropped off in early August. But if you want to buy a copy of
26:27
the everything guide to sports betting or pre-order the NFL
26:29
sharp betting playbook, you would make me very, very happy.
26:32
And what you're going to do is you're going to bring those
26:34
books to the sports book and I'm going to buy you a beer or
26:37
ginger ale. We're going to get some nachos
26:39
and sweat some games together cuz cuz I want to let you know I
26:43
appreciate you guys. Next, if you haven't done it
26:46
yet, what are you doing? Don't go download Rhythm and
26:48
Juice real. My two favorite sports betting
26:50
apps. They help me win.
26:51
They're going to help you win. Rhythm actually almost nearly
26:55
exactly nailed that under last night.
26:57
I think they predicted like 216 and landed 2:15 with that
27:01
Orlando under. But anyway, Rhythm is great
27:04
power in this pod, does a fantastic job of providing us AI
27:07
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
27:10
So if you haven't done it yet, go download Rhythm and then of
27:13
course, Juice Reel where you can support the pod by signing up
27:16
for the $4.99 a week best bet picks.
27:20
Again, this pod is free. It cost you nothing.
27:23
If you enjoy your podcast host or like you enjoy your server or
27:26
bartender, give them a tip. The tip jars those $4.99 a week
27:31
plays. You'll make me happy.
27:32
You'll make juice real happy, but it's not just me.
27:35
If you're a good sports better and you want to post your plays
27:38
and get paid for them as well, you can also do that when you
27:41
download juice reel. So aside from the all systems go
27:45
best bet pics, you're also going to get the robo Jackson best bet
27:48
plays on a daily basis. Two of them come out every day
27:50
at noon. The arbitrage system matches the
27:54
sharp mush indicators shop for the best line futures and what I
27:57
really like is everyone who syncs up their sports books and
28:00
bats games. The actual dollar amounts go in
28:03
to every game breakdown so you can figure out exactly where the
28:06
money is leaning there, but you got to download rhythm.
28:09
You got to download Juice reel give him a five star review in
28:12
the App Store. You'll be off and running making
28:14
sharp bets. Next, if you don't have a live
28:18
odds page, how are you betting on sports?
28:20
I don't even know how you can do it very, very important here,
28:23
but with a live odds page first is going to tell you every game
28:26
being played that day. So what are your options?
28:28
Let's just start before you can pick who you're going to bet.
28:30
What games can I bet on today? Where?
28:31
What are my options? Then you're going to get all the
28:34
opening lines and then you're all going to get right next to
28:37
that opening column that stays static, never changes all the
28:40
current odds of the different sports books.
28:42
You can pull up the line history, look at all the moves
28:44
in between, provides a lot of context.
28:46
That's really important when you get the line history.
28:48
You're also going to be able to follow the best sports books, so
28:51
books like Pinnacle and Circa market setting books, books that
28:55
move first and you can jump on the numbers at a slow moving
28:58
book before it adjust. And then of course, shopping for
29:01
the best line, getting the best price is really half the battle
29:04
sometimes. So you need a live odds page and
29:07
I would highly recommend if you haven't done it yet, giving Odds
29:10
Logic a shot, just go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
29:15
You got to have that slash Josh 123 at the end because that way
29:18
you'll get a 7 day free trial and you will get 50% off your
29:21
first month. And I think you're going to
29:23
enjoy Odds Logic. It's just a very clean interface
29:27
and it's a it's a it's a price that it really isn't that bad.
29:30
You get 50% off the first month. After that it's 99 bucks a
29:33
month. Sounds like a lot, but other
29:35
odds pages are, you know, 205 hundred 800 bucks.
29:39
So it's a pretty decent price, good value play and I think you
29:43
should try it out again by going to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
29:50
So that about does it for episode 258 of the ASG pod on a
29:53
big Wednesday. As always, guys, I'm leave you
29:55
with a couple things. One, whether I see you at the
29:58
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
30:01
of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut
30:04
at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park Casino, or MGM
30:07
Springfield, and my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
30:10
We're out in the desert where the true grinders get down, or
30:12
Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest true as
30:15
possible is found at the South Point.
30:17
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
30:20
swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
30:22
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
30:25
going to show me a beautiful it got dicey at the end, but a
30:28
beautiful Magic Hawks playing under.
30:32
How about a Rangers ticket? How about a Phil's ticket?
30:34
First one's on me, next one's on you.
30:36
I'll post about the book and sweatshark and train plays all
30:39
night long. So I wish you the best luck
30:41
everyone have a great night tonight.
30:42
As always, remember, sports betting ain't easy.
30:45
Three and two, two and three, five and OO and five, four and
30:48
one, one and four. Again, we hope for the best, but
30:52
we're realistic about how difficult this industry is.
30:55
Got to overcome the juice, got to overcome razor sharp lines
30:58
the odds maker set. Got to overcome the the players
31:01
on the field screwed it up for us or the refs.
31:03
Luck, randomness, the house edge, that's all part of it.
31:06
But I can tell you one thing, even though betting is
31:07
difficult, it is not impossible. So if we can find that sweet
31:11
spot, games that fit our model against the house with the
31:14
sorry, against the public with the house with the pros, flat
31:18
bet, avoid parlays, get that closing line value.
31:21
If we can do that long term, make bets with our head and not
31:23
our heart, stay true to the data and just stick to the model and
31:26
grind it long term flat bedding approach, you know what?
31:30
We're going to be OK at the end. So have a great Wednesday,
31:33
everyone. We'll be right back at it
31:35
tomorrow for episode 259 on a big Thirsty Thursday 259,
31:40
episode 259 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
31:44
powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, and enjoy
31:48
the hoops and Major League Baseball.
31:50
Good luck.