Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Final Chance: Why I’m Buying the Dip + Stock Market News 18 November 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Final Chance: Why I’m Buying the Dip + Stock Market News 18 November 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, welcome to this pre-morning live stream.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: We're going to run through Nvidia's Troubles, tesla's Blessings, taluda is breaking in the corner, goldman Sachs' Top Trader has given us some real insight which I'm going to share with you, and we also have some pretty great things coming.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, you can ask me about my or your favourite stocks.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of the plan here today.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: We're also running a live bootcamp tomorrow due to popular demand and popular requests.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: That'll be fun.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: If you want to learn how we beat the market and how do we spot those big breakout trades before they actually happen, join me over there.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: And, of course, smash the you, the, you know what.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: And let's get cracking.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Nvidia uh, it's down pre-market two percent now.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: It was looking a little bit more iffy just a minute ago it was, but it's, uh, it looks like it might be a gap down here.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: See that from yesterday's definitely below yesterday's low, which isn't brilliant.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: And why?
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Well, there could be a snag, and the snag could be that.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Tallulah, do you want to explain it?
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Hang on, hang on, hang on.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: We've got some serious cat issues around here.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Flying cat, flying cat um to lula says.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Apparently those um new gpus have a habit of overheating so that the cats can lie on them and enjoy the heat, which is, I'm sure, what they would do if you let them in there.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: And um, this is a result of a report by uh, I don't know what this publication was called um, apparently, nvidia has asked its suppliers to change the design of racks several times as it's tried to overcome the overheating problems, and word of the repeated design changes has sparked anxiety among customers about a potential delay in when they'll be able to use the racks and therefore the new chips.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, don't spam my friend.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: I know you're excited, but don't do it.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Don't do it.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: So there's not a cat in front of my screen, so I can't see a thing, but I shall soldier on.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Tallulah, would you mind to move yourself just a little, just a touch, maybe two over here.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs is saying this they're saying we are bullish regardless, bullish regardless.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: They're saying that they expect the next quarter to be a true breakout quarter, with a ramp up of Blackwell coupled with improved supply.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: And he's saying four of Nvidia's largest customers Google, meta, microsoft, amazon reported earnings where they explicitly stated that supply, not demand, remains the constraining factor.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: And I've been saying that exactly to you for the last couple of weeks.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: These big tech companies can't get their hands on enough NVIDIA items as quickly as they'd like.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: So is it a big problem?
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: You know what, if these things overheat and it takes a little bit longer to get them out, it doesn't really make a big difference.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: They'll just come out a couple of weeks later.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Does that really matter?
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Does it really matter in the scheme of things?
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: No, I don't think so.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: But right now we're getting a very nice buy the dip opportunity on NVIDIA here.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: The last low was 132.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: I'm not suggesting we're going to go that low, but it's possible.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Of course.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: That would also coincide with roughly the 50-day moving average line, which is typically good support, so topped out here at the.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: You see that the resistance to 150, we literally topped out at exactly that level, few cents below it.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: So those resistance lines, as always super, super important.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Make sure you watch them.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: On Trade Vision there's a link is down below felixfrancidocscom, which is the software that I use here, so you can get the best information out there.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: And you can also, if you are not available for my live bootcamp tomorrow this one then you can also watch the pre-recorded sort of compressed version of it where I will literally teach you how to spot those big, beautiful juicy breakouts, because, trust me, we're going to get a lot of breakouts in the next coming six months, 12 months, 18 months, heck, four years.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: If you are of the opinion that I am of A lot of you saying here it's um, it doesn't really matter, the overheating thing, yeah, I think.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I think also, it's just a, it's a, it's a very temporary problem, so I'm sure they'll be able to fix it.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: They'll just pump up, you know, more cold water through it or something like that.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: So now let me give you this goldman sachs's top traders put out a note, which, of course, he isn't sharing with you but sharing with his big clients, but I thought I you could handle it.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: It's a little technical but I think you can handle it.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, I explained it to Lula and she nodded along and then fell asleep.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: But first item is the Fed.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: So we got spooked a little bit at the end of last week because Jerome, the almighty money printer Powell, basically came out and said I don't think we need to really cut all that quickly.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: It doesn't look like there is any urgency.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Blah, blah, blah.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: You know, inflation is transitory, that kind of thing.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: And it's true, we are now expecting less rate cuts here.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Right, less rate cuts, or certainly slower rate cuts, were rate cuts.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Now, if you watched me on Friday and you have a good memory, I explained to you why less rate cuts are actually a good thing.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: And we still have that chart here somewhere, do we?
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Yes, we do.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Hang on, let me, I'm drawing pictures.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: This was the chart, and the chart basically showed that slow rate cut cycles here in blue, that blue line there at the top, are actually your perfect outcome.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So, if I may highlight that, this here is a slow rate cut cycle we go up 32% in the coming 24 months, in the coming two years after the first rate cut, and a slow rate cut cycle.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: So actually, it's again the market being idiotically short sighted, not realizing it's actually a very good thing because it means the economy is strong strong like an ox, not strong like Mike Tyson, apparently.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Anyway, positions, what is positioning all about?
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Positioning is about is everybody already invested?
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: If everybody's already invested, who's left to buy?
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: And therefore, are we at the top of everybody's already invested?
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Who's left to buy and therefore are we at the top of the market.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Well, he's saying yes, the pros, the professional trading community, has bought significant amount of shares in the recent weeks, but we have seen some decent trimming on Friday and there should therefore be some gas left in the tank from here to December 31st.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: So basically, goldman's is saying moon till the end of the year.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: You know, paraphrasing here slightly breakouts forever.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: There's always a breakout, there's a breakout every day.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: The next thing is buybacks and basically what happens in November and December?
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: November is the biggest buyback month of the year.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Buybacks are the biggest buyers of shares.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I kid you not, it's not you, it's not me, it's not institutions, it's not hedge funds, it's not Nancy Pelosi, it is literally companies themselves buying their own shares.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: That is the biggest source of demand for stocks and the stock market.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So therefore, this is insanely appropriate.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: I hope you're getting ad revenue for the ads we have to watch.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: No, no, I don't.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: If they're mid-video, I don't.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: It is just Google making Google money.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Let them, they need to catch up.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: They get worried about chat, gpt, so they're sliding in free ads apparently.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Now, if you only look at one chart and literally somebody asked me this over the weekend and said oh, felix, why don't you talk more about European stocks?
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Or you know, god forbid, british stocks?
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: How about?
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Look at this.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Why would anybody buy anything other than American stocks, I ask?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, there are some exceptions, but if you look at the performance of European or British or anywhere else in the world for that matter stocks compared to the US, just make your life simple, just buy American stocks.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: And if you're like my chief financial analyst here, tallulah, and you're worried about exchange rate risk, don't, because the performance of the American stocks will likely outweigh the exchange rate risk here.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: A little bit of an upset tummy.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: This one you do, don't you?
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: So seriously, it's the biggest stock market in the world.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: It's where most of the demand sits.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: So that's where I'd suggest you be.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: And I know if you're a German or British or you know God forbid French, then you've been indoctrinated to buy German, british or God forbid French stocks and it's a bad idea.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: And why have you been indoctrinated by that?
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Because your newspapers and your media get ads money from your local financial companies.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: That's the only reason.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: It makes no sense whatsoever.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: There are arguably two good European stocks One is LVMH and one is Novo Nordisk.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Both are down significantly, which might be an opportunity.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, just don't bother.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: What do you think of futures trading?
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, nothing wrong with it If you like that sort of thing.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: No, it's nothing wrong with it.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: I think for most people, stocks are a little bit easier to comprehend and there are plenty of them out there, so I'm not sure that I see the need with it.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I think for most people, stocks are a little bit easier to comprehend and there are plenty of them out there, so I'm not sure that I see the need for it.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Longer trading hours might be an advantage.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: The bigger liquidity isn't really an issue for you, because you know you're not trading with $10 billion or something, so I'd probably stick to stocks.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Could you look at BE please?
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that really went up right.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: It was one of our trade alerts on Friday.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Now why do I say great things coming?
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Because did you read this?
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you follow me on Twitter.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: You can, if you like.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: The handle is Finance Felix.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: By the way, I've yet managed to.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Some bugger must have my name, so I can't change it.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Anyway, the Pentagon has been audited for the seventh year running, and for the seventh year running they failed the audit.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: You'd think that was a big story and you'd think it'd be a disaster.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: No, the Pentagon actually plans to not fail an audit in 2028.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: So only three more failures to come that are planned and they're very unlikely that they're going to hit that goal.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: The Department of Defense says that it was progress.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Apparently.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Now they can't account for 63% of $4 trillion in assets.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's over $2 trillion in assets.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: They don't know where they are.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: So why am I happy about that?
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Because it's massive corruption and you know, it's probably in some warlord's pocket or something thing.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Um, well, no, it's actually makes it very, very easy for elon to solve the budget problem in the us, because with that amount of wastage in just one government department, imagine how much waste there is in all the other ones.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: So in my humble opinion, the?
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: U US could have the lowest taxes in the world and a balanced budget if it wants to, and stocks would therefore go absolutely bananas, because lower taxes mean higher profit margins.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: That means higher stock prices, means more money goes there, more money chases the returns and so on.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: So it's absolutely insane.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: And the assets gained legs, jorna.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they just sort of walked out, probably into the middle of an armed conflict in, you know, I don't know, africa or Central Asia or somewhere.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, somebody had to.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: You know, arm Iran and you know Hezbollah and Hamas and the Taliban and every other nasty out there.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Right, it's usually the US government.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: So maybe that's where the ghost, maybe it's just pure theft, could also be right.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: The people who are running it are just like fabulously wealthy.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: It's just a staggering amount of money, certainly a staggering amount of waste, which certainly means tremendous opportunity there.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Now, why do I put a Palantir chart after that?
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Because I think the connection is what's driving Palantir ultimately?
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So you have the Department of Government Efficiency, doge, which is also Dogecoin, which has done very, very well, as Drew was reminding us of.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: How are they going to actually track everything and how are they going to not waste all that money?
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: And well, palantir would be the easiest solution, wouldn't it?
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Because they're already running a lot of that stuff and they could run absolutely everything else.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: The SEC uses Palantir to find insider trading, for example, the IRS uses Palantir, and so on, but I don't think they've actually sacked anybody after they started using Palantir, which is the baffling thing, because there's no profit incentive.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Apparently, there are buildings and buildings that are empty, that are owned by the government, with nobody in it because everybody's working from home and hiding the trillions of dollars that are missing.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: I think institutional money is agreeing with us here for once.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Look at that jump there institutional ownership of Palantir.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: So I would expect huge monster contracts coming up for Palantir, which I'm very excited about.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: John says I think the US federal government budget is something like $6 trillion, right?
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: So about a trillion of that, $800 billion of that is that is Department of Defense.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: About a trillion is interest, which is the real waste, right?
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: So if you look at, you've got a pie here, right?
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: $6 trillion, that's the total spending.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: So that is, you know, the $ 800 billion that's defence.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Then you have a trillion which is just interest, which is absurd.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: That is, wow, what happened here.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: That is a thousand billion.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: And then, yeah, you're right, there is a problem there.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: That social security and Medicare, medicaid and so on is about half of that pie, but do you know that?
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: So this is basically entitlement programs, right, as they're called.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: But do you know that nowhere else in the world pharmaceuticals are as expensive as they are in the US?
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Do you know that nowhere else in the world pharmaceuticals are as expensive as they are in the US.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: Do you know that nowhere else in the world doctors and nurses get paid what they get paid in the US?
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Do you know that nowhere else in the world do hospitals make profits like they do in the US?
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: This could all be addressed right.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: It's a question of will and want and ability, so you could, I'm sure, very easily squeeze out 30, 40, 50% out of those entitlement programs if you wanted to.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know whether they want to or not, but we'll find out.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: But either way, if you just eliminated the wastage, you could probably shave off.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: I think a trillion would be fairly easy.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: If you manage to thereby get rid of the interest, well, you would actually get to break even, which would be tremendous, and it would mean that you'd spend less and less and less money on debt every single year, which would mean you could basically cut taxes every single year and you'd probably get to a point where you hardly need any taxes, which is quite a thought.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: And yes, infinite wisdom is also saying why are your healthcare costs so high?
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Because you're all eating rubbish.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Sorry to say, not all of you, but most of you, right?
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: I don't really understand this whole buying things and packet things.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: It's a problem.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: Maybe RFK will fix that.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: In the meantime, I can't help you fix your health overnight, but I can help you fix how to find those big, beautiful rallies before they happen.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: So come and watch the masterclass, either straight after this or, if you wish and you have the availability, tomorrow evening at 8 pm Eastern time.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: You can join me live and I'll actually teach you how we beat the market, and we are beating the market very significantly.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Uh, this, this, this year, so far, I think we're up about a hundred I don't know thirty hundred, fifty percent.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: We did a hundred percent, plus the last two years too.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I'm not promising you those returns that would be silly but I promise to show you what I do and how I do it.