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What Warren Buffett’s Moves Tell Us About the Market Right Now. · The Curve

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So if I need your advice for something, I love giving advice.
2:03
So I'm going on this holiday to Japan with my family.
2:07
So it's me, my mom and my dad, my sister, and we haven't done a family holiday like this
2:11
for, gosh, it's very like school union.
2:13
Like a long time.
2:14
Usually we'd have partners or like, it would just be me, my sister or you know, I just wanted
2:20
to get your advice of like, my parents suggested the trip, right?
2:24
Yeah.
2:25
Did I?
2:26
I thought you and your dad did.
2:28
The dad suggested it and I was like, great idea, but it's going to be expensive trip
2:33
because ski trips are expensive.
2:35
Yeah.
2:36
So I said, I have to think about it.
2:37
Then I came back and I was like, you know, I want quite an amazing opportunity.
2:39
I'd say yes to friends, you know, for holiday in Europe.
2:41
So I should be able to say yes to my dad.
2:43
Then my sister was like, I want to come and then my mom wants to come.
2:46
So we're going on this very, very cute family for some holiday.
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But it's been interesting because it's like, who pays for what?
2:56
Yeah, it's a really good one.
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Because like back in the day, me and my sister were always like in the shitty, fold-out
3:02
bed in the lounge because we weren't paying for the accommodation, which is fair enough.
3:07
And this time round, this is our holiday as well and we've been like, no, no, we want
3:11
our own room or we want this level of comfort.
3:16
But I don't know when you go out for dinners, who's pays, as you talked about it, no, with
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your sister.
3:22
Well, like mum and dad, like they're on a pension, like they don't, I would feel guilty
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then paying for holiday for me and my sister and also we're adults now.
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But at what point does that tick over, you know, I feel like have you made yourself, do
3:35
you know how much you can spend on the trip or like have you given yourself a rough amount
3:39
of it?
3:40
Yeah.
3:41
Yeah, it's actually my job this weekend is to be like, right, okay, if this is how much
3:43
ski passes are, we're planning to ski, you know, seven days or all of that and then
3:48
giving budgets.
3:49
But I think it would almost be easier if the partners were there because it's like, okay,
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well, you've got your two, you've got your two, you each paid.
3:55
Yeah.
3:56
But when, now they're not, it's like, well, are we kids again?
3:58
Yeah.
3:59
Sorry, yes.
4:00
Also, can I just say before we get into the financials of this debacle, I reckon be prepared
4:05
for a few blow-ups that make you feel like you're 12 again.
4:08
You know, when you're in the dynamic of your family, like beyond, I think what partners
4:13
does is it cushions the, like, acting like a child, do you know what I mean?
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Do you know what I mean?
4:17
Do you know what I mean?
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Like, arm.
4:19
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
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There's an element of, um, you don't have to be normal, and I'm just going to have
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to do it.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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And I'm going to not make any of these family politics ruin my partner's time.
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Um, however, when they go on, it's, it can be a bit of a free fool, you know?
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I remember we went on a bike riding holiday over Christmas, and it was doing the Queen's
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Charlotte, which is a beautiful track in New Zealand, and it was me mum, Dan, Sarah.
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And we got to one part of the accommodation, and we turned up, and I remember, remember,
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me and my sister going, well, where are we sleeping?
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It's often said, we're like, oh, we, um, the accommodation was booked out, but we emailed
4:59
the lady and she said she had some, um, spare beds out of the bag.
5:03
And we were like, out the back.
5:04
We went and it was like in the laundry, there was like, honestly, it was a stretcher.
5:10
And we lost it.
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Like this, I know this sounds.
5:12
How much?
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We were probably, I think it was like seventh form, or no, it would have been earlier
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than that.
5:18
Yeah.
5:19
But teenagers.
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Teenagers.
5:21
Yeah.
5:22
And we lost it.
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I was like, we're not 12 mum.
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Like, why do you think that we can, anyway, it pretty much ruined the family holiday.
5:29
And we said from then on, you know, if, if we're going, we want to almost have a say
5:34
in, I don't know, but if you're not paying, I told you, yeah, if you're not paying, I
5:38
get it too.
5:39
Yeah.
5:40
But the differences is that you're 36 and you were probably 16, right?
5:45
So there's 20 years on.
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So we've, we've evolved from camp stretches.
5:48
Like it's very clear that you and your sister are not going to be in the ship parts
5:51
of their accommodation, right?
5:52
Or has that not even been talked about?
5:53
Well, no, and then I mean, there was a flip-sided mum.
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My dad and my sister were like, oh, well, what about this hotel?
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And the whole group chat was like, yeah, yeah, cool, cool, cool.
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And it was really expensive.
6:05
And I said, I'll say, look, I can't really afford that, but I'm happy just to stay around
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the corner.
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So awkward.
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I know.
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And then I was like, oh, I don't want you guys to have to say something like shit because
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I kind of forward.
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I don't know.
6:20
And it was just so.
6:21
Well, it's dynamic.
6:22
Okay.
6:23
So what I would say here is the expectation if we're sharing links of accommodation is
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that it's a split-foot way.
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That's the vibe it's giving already because otherwise your parents would be booking
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out and just be like, this is where we're staying.
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But it's in our dinners and that kind of thing where it gets a bit awkward.
6:41
What I, why don't you suggest a split-wise, a family split-wise that or a joint account
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or a joint account where you decide this is like how much I can spend so that you can
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budget and put parameters in place around what is realistic for you.
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So it's five grand or whatever.
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Like I can only spend this amount.
6:58
Yeah.
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It's everyone open to putting that amount into an account that we can use for dinners
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and blah, blah, blah.
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That's maybe a good easy and then you have parameters around what you're spending and
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everyone's aware of the limit.
7:09
That's a great idea.
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It's just so interesting when it switches from being a kid to being an adult, going on
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holiday with your family.
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And also like, now I really want to lean into like the 12-year-old, like, help pour
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me.
7:20
I have to be honest and say, I'm not in a financial position to be super, super generous
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with my parents right now, like I am wholeheartedly leaning into the fact that right now I don't
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have to pay rent.
7:36
Yeah.
7:37
I'm contributing to groceries at home and I'm filling the car up with petrol and I'm like,
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you know, I'm not expecting them to fund my life, but I'm really not going over and
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above to be like, because I can't afford to.
7:48
Yeah.
7:49
I know what you mean.
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It's real awkward.
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It's also, I've really noticed, like I'm saying, my sister and then now so my parents
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and I've really noticed, I've tried to really focus on the things that would help them
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that are non-monitory, if that makes sense.
8:06
It's a landing?
8:07
Yeah.
8:08
No, like my sister hates me.
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So I'm like, right, that's one thing I can do is like, like, you're doing like chores
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for like pocket money as well, like instead of like grocery shop, like should be like
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cool things.
8:17
You're saying with your sister, right?
8:18
Yeah.
8:19
It's like, okay, how can I lean in without having to buy them things and go over the
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top?
8:24
Do you know what I mean?
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Because I'm not paying rent either.
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So it's like, how do I do things?
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I'm like, oh, baby, sit.
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Whenever you want.
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You know what I call it?
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Like, how do I kind of use my skills in a non-monitory way to benefit someone that would
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actually mean a lot, rather than buying groceries.
8:39
It's like actually coming home and having a clean house.
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I know, but I don't have the time to clean the house.
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I know.
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I don't have time to clean the room.
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I'm staying in.
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I know that's such a stupid excuse, but I mean, this weekend I've literally been like,
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I-
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Hi.
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I mean, when you're staying at mine, you're like, I was on the phone too for some reason.
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You know, just dog on my room.
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Dog on my room.
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And I was like, why?
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I just said, dog on my room.
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Dog on my room.
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Honestly, when in two, your room.
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I was like, geez.
9:04
Oh, wow.
9:05
Okay.
9:06
And my defense.
9:07
Sorry.
9:08
I'm all nothing, right?
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I'm either like, there's a time and place you should absolutely not be stepping into
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maybe your room.
9:13
But there's also like, I'm just so extreme.
9:16
I'm either everything is meticulous, or you walk in and it is, it's not a place to
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be.
9:22
Yes.
9:23
Fending quality time.
9:24
It's just so.
9:25
Yeah.
9:26
I think I could open the door.
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I think it was.
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Oh, come on.
9:29
You're so dramatic.
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People must think that I'm just like, I only ever talked to you when there's a podcast
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microphone, or I only ever like-
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No, there was a pillow in front of your mirror as well.
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Was there?
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With a little.
9:40
Like an extra, which I said.
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Hmm.
9:42
Oh, that was when I was doing my-
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I was like, what's she doing?
9:44
Oh.
9:45
You know, like such a grandma?
9:47
Why is that?
9:48
Oh, no.
9:49
This is when I was doing my sexuality culture, remember?
9:51
Yeah.
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I mean, it was like, yeah, yeah, it was a whole thing.
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I must say, that was probably I have been thinking of recently.
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I should be getting back to that.
9:58
Yeah.
9:59
It's amazing how much like-
10:01
And I don't mean just sex.
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I mean, just like sexual energy is like creativity and like vitality, and I saw this
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a friend of mine, the one who I used to do like sexuality coaching with.
10:12
Yeah.
10:13
Her name is Melissa Ranjaze, you know, and that's interested.
10:16
And she put this post up the other day and it was like a meme and like me, waiting for
10:19
my libido to return.
10:20
Like someone just lying in the bed, like yawning.
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And then it was like me being aware of like how I can control my libido whatever it was
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like, like sexily or tired doing like breathing exercise in front of the mirror.
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And I was like, it's true.
10:31
Yeah.
10:32
Because I felt the difference between like yon sensual and like more activated.
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Anyway, let's move on to financial chat.
10:38
This was sorry.
10:39
This was really stupid.
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It turned for the sexy, which was not planned.
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No, I don't like us.
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But you have sexy, Warren Buffett.
10:45
Mm-hmm.
10:46
That was the worst cigarette.
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It was the worst cigarette.
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It was 95.
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Anyway, speaking, yeah.
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Sexy of sexy.
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His annual report was out in the weekend.
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Oh, sexy.
10:56
Tell me more.
10:57
No, but honestly, the number of people, the number of people in the finance industry that's
11:03
caveat that, that this is quite hotly anticipated.
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Like, this is Warren Buffett, talking to investors annually.
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He's got a full shareholder letter, and it just really gives a good insight into his
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view of the market and also his business, Berkshire Hathaway.
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And so this is his 60th anniversary of taking over Berkshire Hathaway in 1960.
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So he's been doing it for 60 years.
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No, he is the OJ.
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Yeah.
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But we fall into the curve.
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We're like, oh.
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He's 60.
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Imagine.
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Imagine.
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Imagine being 60.
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Little I'm having done something for 60 years.
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Imagine us.
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I'd be 96, sitting here.
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Honestly, it's something pretty incredible to be proud of.
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Like, there's not a lot that you stick to for more than even 10 years.
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No.
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Little I'm 60.
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Yeah.
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Anyway, here's 95 this year.
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And the fact that he's still got his brain working and his smarts.
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It's honestly probably white.
11:56
He's 95.
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True.
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Because I really think the more you use your brain, the later in life.
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He drinks a lot of Coca-Cola and it's a lot of peanut brittle.
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So I'm surprised.
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I didn't know that because I went to his annual general meeting.
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Yes.
12:14
The pilgrimage of the finance nerds.
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I totally get it now.
12:18
When you told me about that, I remember being late boring.
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And now I just think I wish I could go.
12:23
Yeah.
12:24
Totally geek out.
12:25
Yeah.
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Anyway.
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His right hand man, Charlie Manga died last year.
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Poor.
12:31
Yeah.
12:32
Poor Warren, poor Charlie.
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But anyway, this year's annual report.
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I think the glaringly highlighted thing is that how much cash his company is sitting on.
12:44
Like why are you not spending that money?
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It's got record, record highs of how much cash they're holding in their business, which is $334 billion.
12:57
Yeah.
12:58
You're investing in a company and they've just got it in cash.
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It's like why aren't you investing that?
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You know what I mean?
13:03
He does that a lot though, right?
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He does giant investments, opposed to small ones here and there.
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If he invests, he invests.
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Absolutely not by harms.
13:11
Is there a chance that he's just weighing up his next massive investment?
13:14
Yeah.
13:15
Exactly.
13:16
But it's like, why is he not investing now?
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Because he obviously doesn't see any opportunities.
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So that to me says, oh, all the market is way too high.
13:24
Where it is for Warren Buffett, he must be waiting in the sidelines for opportunities to present themselves.
13:30
But he's not, does he time the market?
13:33
Is that his thing?
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He doesn't time the market as such.
13:36
He just waits for companies to become great value.
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So that might be, in the video's share price, just bobbing around where it is now for another few years.
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Then he'll buy.
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Do you know what I mean?
13:50
It's not that Apple having a big correction in their share price then he jumps in.
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It's more or he'll slowly start putting some of that money to work.
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But the other thing that was highlighted was who's going to take over from him?
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He's 95 years old and it's always been like, who's going to take over?
14:09
Is it going to be able to be run the same?
14:11
And they've got this guy called Greg Abel who's actually 62.
14:15
I'm like, will you get someone a bit younger?
14:18
But if he's thinking of, if it's a lifelong career decision,
14:23
just like it has been for Warren Buffett, surely he's got 30 years in him, you know.
14:28
I don't, you just want some young blood, wouldn't you?
14:30
I don't know, I'm kind of like...
14:31
We're probably not investing experience, we're probably not being the best.
14:34
Yeah, I guess his son Howard Buffett, his chair of the board, yeah.
14:40
Howard.
14:41
But anyway, so Berkshire Hathaway, the actual company, has done, you know,
14:45
shares are up 11% this year versus this.
14:47
Do you invest in what Berkshire Hathaway?
14:49
No, I don't.
14:51
But you love him, why?
14:53
I know.
14:54
This isn't really a sight me.
14:56
I don't know, like it invests in my energy companies, railroads, insurance,
15:00
like it's real old world stuff.
15:02
To that kind of stuff.
15:04
I mean, to be honest, it's always usually the boring companies that tend to do well, you know.
15:09
And that's more in Buffett's philosophy, but I just...
15:13
I mean, he bought Apple.
15:15
He bought a big stake in Apple.
15:16
So innovative.
15:17
So innovative.
15:18
Well, we said it never buy technology companies because it doesn't understand technology.
15:21
Do you feel 11% isn't...
15:23
I mean, it's good, but when the market's done incredibly well,
15:26
well, that's sorry for the first two months of the year.
15:28
Is that above the market though?
15:29
Mark is on 1%.
15:30
Is it?
15:31
Yeah.
15:32
Oh my god, do you know what I forgot to tell you?
15:34
This is devastating.
15:35
In fact, this is an off.
15:36
This is in a railroad, so I'll talk about it at the end.
15:39
I want to know now.
15:40
No, it's bad.
15:41
It's real bad.
15:42
In Tania, we'll talk about it at the end.
15:45
What else is...
15:46
What else are we taking from this report?
15:47
Sorry, I was just going into what you could be telling me.
15:51
The key thing is also that Birchai had the way because the size of the company has paid 27 billion dollars in taxes in the US,
16:01
which is roughly 5% of total taxes paid by US companies last year.
16:07
That's just the size of it.
16:09
So all the companies in the US, Birchai had the way has paid 5% of all the taxes in the US.
16:16
Maybe people are employed, but in that company must be enormous.
16:20
Yeah, I'm not sure.
16:21
But, wow.
16:22
27 billion in taxes alone.
16:24
That's just...
16:25
I'd be doing everything I could to avoid that.
16:30
The bigger the numbers get, the more hard it is to quantify.
16:34
Because even looking at house prices, for example, if you're looking at what a return might be over a 10-year period,
16:40
and you're talking about 10% of whatever it is, I don't know.
16:44
I find it hard to contextualize amounts, so for them, even though that's an absurd amount of money.
16:51
Well, just imagine if you could shave one billion off that and only pay 26 billion in taxes.
16:58
Like, imagine how you could allocate that resource for the rest of the company.
17:01
Yeah, true.
17:02
But, yeah.
17:04
There's three certain things in life, death, taxes, and market fluctuations.
17:10
Do you think that from this, we should be cautious of investing in the stock market?
17:17
Is that what kind of you're trying to allude?
17:19
I think my takeaway is yes.
17:20
Yeah.
17:21
I think we've had a number of really, really great years,
17:24
and one of the most famous, well-trodden investors is not investing in stuff at the moment.
17:33
I mean, he's already got investments, so it's not like he's pulling his money out,
17:36
but he's just sitting on his hands, waiting, waiting, waiting.
17:39
I think it's interesting hearing that, because whilst I agree,
17:43
remembering for people who are listening to this podcast,
17:46
they don't have billions and billions to invest,
17:49
and there's still really great opportunities.
17:51
Even where we're speaking in the Investing Club,
17:53
looking at Tesla shares and how much they've fallen.
17:56
If someone wanted to invest in Tesla, they didn't want to be a part of the Elon Musk boycotting.
18:01
There's opportunities.
18:03
It's just that remembering that Warren Buffett is investing a huge amount,
18:08
so if the market is super high for him,
18:11
the amount that he could be saving or making by holding off until things...
18:16
Do you know what I mean?
18:17
I think it's just remembering people aren't investing the same amount as Warren Buffett.
18:20
And what we don't want is people to feel scared about new kind of investments.
18:24
It's just a good barometer, though,
18:26
when things do tend to do well and do well year after year,
18:31
people get excited and they forget that markets do go up and down,
18:35
and so it's just not forgetting that part and parcel investing is that market...
18:40
The market goes up and the market goes down.
18:42
Also, you could invest in Berkshire Hathaway.
18:45
It's a pretty diversified investment itself.
18:48
In there, you've got Apple, you've got American Express, you've got Bank of America,
18:52
you've got Coca-Cola, you've got lots of insurance companies.
18:56
There's a lot of companies within that that you could just invest in that
19:01
and get in some diversification if you wanted as well.
19:03
But also, in other news, the video has had a result.
19:08
Oh, don't tell me I'm going to log in and see how much years have done.
19:11
Can you give me one second?
19:13
Oh no, you've lost my name.
19:16
Oh no, you didn't buy it.
19:19
No, I did.
19:20
Oh, it's gone down.
19:22
Yeah.
19:23
Been going down all year?
19:25
Oh no.
19:27
I thought I'd bought in a really good time.
19:30
It's gone up and now it's gone down again.
19:32
Over what space, Sophie?
19:34
Yeah, I'm only looking at one year.
19:38
But let me look at one month.
19:40
Oh, okay, so it's a similar price to when I bought it.
19:42
Yeah.
19:43
I haven't lost a heap.
19:44
That's good.
19:45
Long-term.
19:46
Long-term.
19:47
Long-term.
19:48
Totally.
19:49
I mean, no, no, no, I'm still happy I've done.
19:50
I just hadn't even really seen what it had done.
19:52
Yeah.
19:53
And it really has not been doing well.
19:55
Yeah.
19:56
So it had a result.
19:57
Well, obviously with a company that's done, you know, 70% return in the last 12 months.
20:03
And one of the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 last year, your expectations are so
20:09
high of what this company needs to grow by and what its profit needs to be to keep up
20:13
with that growth.
20:14
And so, yeah, it had a really good result.
20:17
And it did BT expectations that the market was expecting.
20:21
But the share price hasn't done much because people like cool.
20:24
Well, with the share price as well as it had done, we wanted you to shoot the lights out
20:30
and you didn't.
20:31
So, yeah.
20:32
But it's still good news.
20:34
I guess the key focus.
20:35
So it generated 131 billion in revenue last year.
20:40
That's more than double what it did there before.
20:43
130 billion.
20:46
Anyway, the biggest focus.
20:48
So when a company reports results, the first thing you want to check is, is it better or worse
20:54
than expectations?
20:55
And you can find out what the market was expecting on Yahoo Finance.
20:58
You can just, you can look up, you know, what do people think revenue is going to be?
21:01
What do people think profit was going to be?
21:04
But the other key thing is that after every financial result, the company holds a call with
21:10
investors.
21:11
You can join, anyone can join, you jump on, you can.
21:14
Yeah.
21:15
So I could have joined.
21:16
Yep.
21:17
You can join.
21:18
Maybe I should just forget a market research.
21:19
Yeah.
21:20
To understand the lay of the land.
21:21
You can jump on to meters and you can hear Mark Zuckerberg talk.
21:24
Well, that's quite cool.
21:25
You can jump on.
21:26
Yeah.
21:27
Anyway, so I can imagine this is probably one of the most listened to earnings calls.
21:34
And most of the focus was around deep seek and what impact is that having on your business
21:39
or going to have on your business.
21:41
And the CFO, she said that the next generation of AI algorithms could need millions of times
21:51
the current amount of computing capacity.
21:53
So energy needs, you need more energy also like beginning need our chips essentially.
21:59
So they're going to need millions of times the current amount of capacity.
22:03
So our chips are pretty much the best in class and they're going to need our capacity.
22:08
Are they going to need our chips?
22:09
And so I think that kind of eased people's concerns a little bit.
22:14
But why then has the share price not done well?
22:17
Because if I'm looking at, and I know this is short term, but if I look at the graph, even a year,
22:25
I mean, it's not doing amazing.
22:26
It's not doing terribly.
22:27
But this is definitely because you've run now like even that, even that comment,
22:31
you expect it.
22:32
You're expecting it has to generate such high growth now because expectations are baked
22:39
into the share price.
22:41
Does that make sense?
22:42
It's like the share price has done so well that you need now profit to not only increase
22:49
100%, you need like 200%.
22:51
Do you know what I mean?
22:52
You need that pace of growth to keep accelerating to keep up with that.
22:56
But if all they're saying is true and that AI is demanding that much,
23:01
shouldn't they be able to do that?
23:03
That's the question.
23:05
You think the answer is yes, you buy the stock.
23:08
Good to know.
23:09
What are your thoughts or should we take that into their missing club?
23:13
Maybe that's going to be single.
23:14
Yeah.
23:15
So, I've been up there on Netflix, who would you say is Netflix's biggest competitor?
23:33
Just optically.
23:34
Disney.
23:35
Yeah.
23:36
But it's actually increasingly becoming YouTube.
23:40
Really?
23:41
Yeah.
23:42
So, these two platforms have almost gone in opposite directions.
23:48
Netflix had ad was ad free and they kind of said, you know, I know the CEO was always
23:53
like, we're going to be ad free.
23:56
That was a whole preface of Netflix was like, you're going to pay per views, you're going
23:59
to be no ads.
24:00
And now they're kind of pivoting back to being like, look, we're going to have different
24:03
tiers.
24:04
We'll have a premium one, which is no ads.
24:06
We'll have an ad one.
24:07
We'll have different options.
24:09
On the other side, you've got YouTube, which has been reliant on ads.
24:15
You know, you always had ads on YouTube.
24:17
And now they're going, hey, you can actually get a premium, which is ad free.
24:21
So, it's interesting.
24:23
They both started with the opposite and now they're kind of merging into each other's
24:28
territory.
24:29
But YouTube's thought like, yes, there's long form, but it's way more like user generated
24:35
content than Netflix.
24:37
Like Netflix is very refined and, you know, it's like high end drama.
24:43
YouTube is not that.
24:45
I don't see how they're the like closest competitors.
24:49
Yeah.
24:50
So YouTube's going to release an ad free subscription called premium light, which you
24:53
can subscribe to for $14 a month.
24:56
But what is that?
24:57
No ads.
24:58
Yeah, but like how does that compete with Netflix when the content is so different?
25:03
Yeah.
25:04
Well, in terms of revenue, last year, YouTube pulled in 36 billion from ads alone.
25:13
And Netflix entire revenue was like 39 billion.
25:18
So they're pretty neck and neck.
25:20
But that doesn't surprise me in the sense that YouTube isn't having to put a huge
25:23
amount of money back into its content production.
25:26
Netflix.
25:27
Exactly.
25:28
So the margins, like the cost to generate that 39 million for Netflix will be way higher.
25:32
So high than the YouTube 100%.
25:35
And.
25:36
But does that mean their competitors or is that just like an interesting stat around the
25:41
amount of revenue from online visual content?
25:44
Because I really don't see them as direct competitors.
25:48
Well, you're competing for eyeballs.
25:51
You know, if I'm going to spend half an hour or an hour on YouTube, that's time I
25:55
could be spending on Netflix.
25:56
Okay.
25:57
That's interesting.
25:58
Yeah.
25:59
Yeah.
26:00
Yeah.
26:01
Yeah.
26:02
But a few weeks ago, YouTube hit another milestone saying that people now watch YouTube more
26:04
on TV than on phones.
26:06
And quite a few people that do that.
26:09
Yeah.
26:10
So if you think about that, people are setting that in their lounge.
26:13
Okay.
26:14
Okay.
26:15
Not Netflix or Disney or Amazon.
26:16
Interesting.
26:17
Yeah.
26:18
Oh, that's.
26:19
I feel like YouTube's like this underdog.
26:21
100% agree.
26:22
It's like the Microsoft of the tech companies.
26:24
You know.
26:25
It is.
26:26
It's like.
26:27
It's slightly uncle dad.
26:29
Yeah.
26:30
Yeah.
26:31
Yeah.
26:32
Yeah.
26:33
Yeah.
26:34
Yeah.
26:35
Yeah.
26:36
Yeah.
26:37
Yeah.
26:38
Yeah.
26:39
Yeah.
26:40
Yeah.
26:41
Yeah.
26:42
Yeah.
26:43
Yeah.
26:44
Yeah.
26:45
Yeah.
26:46
Yeah.
26:47
Yeah.
26:48
Yeah.
26:49
Yeah.
26:50
Yeah.
26:51
Yeah.
26:52
Yeah.
26:53
Yeah.
26:54
Yeah.
26:55
Yeah.
26:56
Yeah.
26:57
Because actually, if I think about that, YouTube, actually, do you know what it's worth doing?
27:01
We've actually just got our YouTube accounts.
27:02
If anyone would like to put us on the big screen.
27:05
You can see our faces, our voices.
27:07
Well, actually, but that's a good example, right?
27:09
Yeah.
27:10
Spotify or Apple into a TV, but maybe you will be able to.
27:13
Yeah, so instead of watching like the new Netflix originals docker, just turn our
27:17
song.
27:18
Apple's out of vinegar.
27:19
Yeah.
27:20
But also, so I find this so, I just think I can't be even going to say this, but I think
27:28
Google's becoming my new Microsoft.
27:31
Is it?
27:32
Well, I mean, Apple.
27:33
Well, I found what I'm comfortable saying there, but you know, we're getting there, we're
27:36
getting there.
27:37
But also Google bought YouTube for 1.6 billion in 2006.
27:42
What's it worth now?
27:44
Well, I just mentioned that it's making about 40 billion in revenue.
27:47
Yeah.
27:48
Holy.
27:49
Yeah.
27:50
So it'll be worth multiples more than it's revenue.
27:52
So yeah.
27:53
Cleve and move from Google.
27:54
Yeah.
27:55
Did you say Google bought YouTube?
27:57
Yeah.
27:58
Google.
27:59
I thought met her own YouTube.
28:00
No.
28:01
Oh my gosh.
28:02
Yeah.
28:03
So if you wanted to invest in YouTube, you buy Google.
28:05
Yeah.
28:06
But imagine I was thinking about it back in 2000.
28:08
Do you know what it says?
28:09
It's like, because Google's cooler acquisition is YouTube, just like Microsoft is being
28:14
cool in AI.
28:15
Yeah.
28:16
It's always like the poster child or the front facing is like the less cool less in a
28:19
bit of, but what they're investing in is, yeah, but it's also like, I was just like
28:24
imagine selling your business in 2006, 1.6 billion.
28:28
You know, if you started YouTube and you sold it to Google, 1.6, you'd be like, woohoo,
28:32
yeah.
28:33
And then seeing it now, you'd be like, shit.
28:35
However, 2006 to nearly 20, 26, yeah, nearly 20 years, let's hope you've moved on from
28:44
your sale of YouTube.
28:46
And do you know that YouTube actually started a dating site?
28:49
No, it didn't.
28:50
Yeah.
28:51
So people can watch videos of potential partners and they're like, no, let's go more
28:53
broad.
28:54
Let's go.
28:55
Who would ever submit their video?
28:56
What is the person doing?
28:57
Oh my god.
28:58
Do you know what I really want to get hold of?
28:59
No, no.
29:00
Don't even mention it.
29:01
Don't mention it.
29:02
Why?
29:03
I've mentioned this to so many people.
29:04
It's just come up in conversation.
29:05
You know, it's so embarrassing.
29:07
Oh my god.
29:08
I don't get embarrassed very often.
29:10
But this is so label.
29:11
So you have got dug up stuff of me.
29:14
We need to.
29:15
It's for the people.
29:16
Give it to the people.
29:17
Give the people what they want.
29:18
Honestly, Rick and I.
29:19
It's so good.
29:20
That's not good.
29:21
It is.
29:22
I'm just saying it being like, you're a genius.
29:23
How can you edit it?
29:24
So for those of you who don't know what we're talking about, so if we submitted an entry
29:28
to Australian survivor, American survivor, to join their team as a producer.
29:34
And she had to submit this video and she showed it to me.
29:38
And I just remember being like, how did you even come up with that?
29:41
It was so genius.
29:42
You are.
29:43
Okay.
29:44
I mean, you've probably come a long way, but back then, I thought it was fucking awesome.
29:47
I've got a selfie stick, a phone, maybe even a GoPro, and I'm hanging off a tree in
29:52
Manly Beach.
29:53
It is not good.
29:54
Yeah.
29:55
It is the most cringe thing.
29:56
And I remember having to do it so many times because I was so bad at presenting.
30:00
But it worked.
30:01
Hi.
30:02
She got the trophy.
30:03
Oh man.
30:04
Any man.
30:05
Another.
30:07
And our gorgeous editor, Emily, we will absolutely love this.
30:11
That YouTube has now leapfrogs Spotify to become the most popular podcast platform in
30:18
the US.
30:19
YouTube.
30:20
Yeah.
30:21
It has more than one billion views a month.
30:24
So it's just the podcast.
30:25
The podcast bigger than Spotify for podcasts in the US.
30:31
So that's an indication of the rest of the world to focus on your time on YouTube this
30:34
way.
30:35
Yeah.
30:36
So if you want to go find us on YouTube, yeah, she gosh, this is really good tonight.
30:42
Yeah.
30:43
That's crazy.
30:44
Spotify for podcasts has podcasts in the name, and even they're not doing better than
30:48
YouTube.
30:49
Yeah.
30:50
And this makes me want to invest in Google.
30:51
I'm totally on board with the fact that Google is the new shining star.
30:54
Even though they just removed their DEI policy.
30:57
Oh, no, it's so true.
30:58
Why do you have to?
31:00
Oh, you've really good at bursting the bubble.
31:02
I know.
31:03
Speaking of bubble that is burst, Tesla's bubble has really, really burst.
31:08
Yeah.
31:09
Wow.
31:10
Yeah.
31:11
The bubble, there's not even bubble juice anymore.
31:12
I'm just watching it every day.
31:13
Yeah.
31:14
Down, down, down.
31:15
Down, down, down.
31:16
I need to look at that.
31:17
Down for the scene again today.
31:18
Wow.
31:19
Yeah.
31:20
Everyone is boycotting.
31:21
Yeah.
31:22
That's so interesting.
31:23
I'm nibbling.
31:24
You're buying.
31:25
Yeah.
31:26
Just nibbling.
31:27
How much is nibbling?
31:28
Little snatch.
31:29
It's going down a lot.
31:31
It's nearly down.
31:32
It's like, you know, it's like bad to where it was and, oh, it's not that long.
31:36
I'm not getting a year.
31:37
Hold on.
31:38
Five years.
31:39
Oh, it's still not that low.
31:40
No.
31:41
But if you know, 2022, it's nearly at 2022.
31:45
Yeah.
31:46
If you were buying stock back in November last year of Tesla, then you should be buying
31:51
nooks.
31:52
It's exactly the same price.
31:53
But there's been a few things that have happened since then.
31:56
So it had a result, and that result showed that Tesla sales down 45% in Europe in January.
32:03
So that is one of the contributing factors, which we've kind of already alluded to, is
32:07
that Elon Musk's support for Trump, and particularly the far right parties in Europe.
32:12
Do you think that the people that buy Tesla are more educated than the people that are
32:18
voting for Trump?
32:19
Like do you think, because obviously there's a shitload of people in America that are
32:21
voted for Trump, otherwise he wouldn't have gotten it?
32:24
But when it comes to investing, those people probably aren't investing.
32:27
And so there's people who are like, I don't want that person in power, and I can vote with
32:33
my wallet.
32:34
And it comes back to it being a privilege to understand investing, right?
32:38
Like a lot of people are still really uneducated when it comes to how to even invest.
32:42
How does it work?
32:43
Blah, blah, blah.
32:44
Do you think there's a correlation between voters who are Trump supporters aren't involved
32:48
in investing?
32:49
I think it's a combination of the brand is being damaged, and people don't want to own
32:54
Tesla's.
32:55
So there's not these new sales coming in the pipeline that they probably thought they
33:00
had.
33:01
There's also a combination of investors going, shit, all of this is going to create brand
33:10
damages.
33:11
So you've got consumers not buying the cars, you've got investors not buying the stock.
33:15
And then when you get that compounded, you've got profitability that's not coming through.
33:20
You've got an electric vehicle market that's growing at like 40%.
33:24
These guys are going backwards.
33:27
That means that Reno and Volkswagen and all those other companies are going to be, they
33:32
must be gaining market share.
33:34
And if you think about a car purchase, you don't flop a change of car every week.
33:38
You know, you kind of get that buyer at one point, we're not one point in their life,
33:41
but you know, you hold a car for, I think it's like three or four years on average.
33:47
So getting that new customer in, I don't know, it's market caps now below a trillion dollars,
33:54
so it's still massive, but like that's a bit of a threshold.
33:57
But if I look at December, only literally two months ago, it was the highest the share
34:03
price has been in the history of the stock.
34:05
Yeah.
34:06
So it's not exactly ages ago.
34:08
No.
34:09
Yeah.
34:10
And that was people going, I kind of hope it keeps dropping.
34:13
Yeah.
34:14
There'll be a point where people go, okay, this is looking really attractive now because
34:17
if you look at all the assets and you look at the profit that it's actually making,
34:21
it's actually looking really cheap.
34:22
And so you start to look at the kind of the price and relate, the share price of relation
34:26
to the earnings growth and all of that.
34:28
But is this just a short term, okay, there's production issues and therefore there's less
34:34
cars to sell in Europe and it'll bounce back, what is this a more systemic thing of people
34:38
going?
34:39
Actually, we're going to boycott this and we're going to put our money into competitors.
34:42
That's the kind of question.
34:44
And part of me thinks it's probably a bit overdone.
34:46
I think there's, you know, we see with Tesla, like the ramp up towards the end of last
34:51
year, people getting so excited that like all these policies, we're going to be positive
34:55
for Tesla.
34:57
And now people, Mark, it's just a so of reactionary sometimes.
35:02
And if we want to, we should be taking this to our advantage and buying some.
35:05
I mean, it's really interesting in the club hearing what people are saying because there's
35:09
a lot of people and out investing club that are like, fuck Elon.
35:13
Yeah.
35:14
I don't want to have money.
35:15
I don't want to be supporting the US government.
35:16
I'm not interested.
35:17
While I saw a lot of the comments and I was like, God, that makes me proud.
35:21
And we've got an awesome community and how amazing is that?
35:25
There is definitely a part of me that's like, it is a buying opportunity.
35:28
Well, it feels like that.
35:30
And then when, when share prices fall too much, it starts to seed into things like
35:35
hiring new staff because if you're hiring new staff and you're like, look, we'll give
35:39
you stock.
35:40
There'll be your stocks worth like nothing.
35:43
That becomes really hard.
35:44
If the brand's tarnished, people don't want to work there, partners don't want to part
35:48
with that partner with them.
35:49
That there's so many flow on effects that come from a falling share price as well.
35:53
Just lastly, on that over 230,000 Canadians have signed a petition to revoke Elon Musk's
35:57
citizenship and passports.
35:58
They don't want him in Canada anymore.
36:00
That's so good.
36:02
I know.
36:03
Yeah.
36:04
Bitcoin, Bitcoin, yes, is tumbled below $90,000, a coin.
36:09
Now it's US dollars.
36:11
So this is the lowest level that's been since mid-November.
36:13
So before Trump's inauguration and all of that and the big ramp up that saw, why is
36:19
it similar to Tesla actually?
36:21
It's fallen because there is kind of two things going on and pretty similar to Tesla actually,
36:28
it's mainly that there's confrontational and aggressive stance against his allies.
36:34
So we just spoke about Canada, he's isolated Canada, he's isolating Mexico, he's isolating
36:39
China, he's creating all this geopolitical tension, he's siding with Russia, he's creating
36:45
a lot of kind of economic holy shitness and it's kind of shaken a lot of this confidence
36:51
in Bitcoin as well as in him, all of that.
36:54
But the other thing which is really important is that people are now going, oh shit, I
36:59
think this whole higher inflation thing is going to come through and higher inflation typically
37:05
drives cryptocurrencies lower because it means that higher interest rates are going to come
37:09
through to help curb that inflation and therefore when there's higher interest rates, things
37:14
like term deposits, people won't invest in those rather than Bitcoin and risky things.
37:19
So sorry, that was a really quick explanation but essentially people are worried about
37:24
the world and who Trump is siding with and what that means for uncertainty in the future
37:31
and so.
37:32
Yes.
37:33
But I'm like, you know what, Trump's got his own cryptocurrency, he's got his own listed
37:39
company on the stock exchange, you know if he sees the stock market continuing to fall,
37:44
he sees cryptocurrencies continuing to fall, he's going to do something about it.
37:47
He's got his self-indulgent and his interests aligned with us if we're in the stock market
37:54
and Bitcoin.
37:55
Okay, just to finish off, the massive faux pas that I had was I needed to take money out
38:00
of the stock market and I knew that I needed to take money out of the stock market and I just
38:05
sort of liked it the whole I'll do it tomorrow, do it tomorrow is three weeks later and the
38:09
market fell and I looked at what I would have had if I took it out as soon as I knew that
38:15
I needed to use that money for something.
38:17
Yeah.
38:18
And it was like the difference for about seven hundred dollars that I missed out on because
38:23
I didn't action that so enough and it's a really good example of do not put money and
38:28
high-risk and like investments if you're going to be needing it in the short term future.
38:34
It's just like not the right thing to be doing and I'm like, how many times do we talk
38:39
about that?
38:40
The fact that I just didn't prioritize moving the money out of the high risk when I knew
38:44
I was going to have to use it.
38:45
I'm just like, so fee, such a good learning.
38:49
Yeah.
38:50
Seven hundred dollars, what the fuck, I was sorry, I'm sparing a lot on this episode but
38:54
it's okay, let it out, let it out.
38:56
Anyway, it was just a really good reminder, like whilst investing is exciting and great
39:01
and where 1,000% on board was like invest.
39:04
This is why when you post it to your goal and actually need to take that money out, you
39:08
need to start moving into less spicy things.
39:11
Yeah.
39:12
I really loved this episode, I feel like there's some stuff happening in the world.
39:15
There's lots of stuff.
39:16
You know, like it's exciting to be a part of it.
39:18
Yeah.
39:19
There's a lot going on.
39:20
We'll keep you updated though, don't worry, we're here for you.
39:23
Yes, and if you would like to join the club, we're going to link it in the podcast show
39:27
notes.
39:28
There's so much awesome conversation happening in the community at the moment.
39:31
I'm like, really here for it, it's kind of like, I think when the stuff happens and
39:38
when you know what's going on and you've kind of got an opinion, I want to see what other
39:41
people think.
39:42
It's been really cool to see.
39:43
Yeah.
39:44
Okay.
39:45
See you.
39:46
Bye.
39:47
Thank you so much for listening to the Curve Weekly.
39:48
Make sure you hit the subscribe button to stay up to date with all the many business stock
39:51
market news.
39:52
And if you like what you heard, we would love a review.
39:55
Thank you.
39:56
Yes.
39:57
We would love a review.
39:58
If you did hate it, please.
39:59
Yeah, don't leave one if you hate it.
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No, but in all seriousness, could you please leave a review because it really helps other
40:05
people find our cute little podcast and we hope you have a good week and see you next
40:09
Monday.
40:10
Bye.
40:11
See you next Tuesday.
40:12
Wow.
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See you next Tuesday.
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I mean Monday.
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No, actually though.
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New episodes out every Tuesday.
40:17
Okay.
40:18
Quickly.
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The Curve was created to empower and educate you about investing, but we are not financial
40:30
advisors.
40:31
Our platform exists for educational purposes only and it doesn't provide personalized
40:35
investing advice for your individual needs and should not be relied upon to make an
40:38
investment or financial decision.
40:40
And always remember to do your own research before making any investment or financial
40:44
decision.
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We're here for any knowledge and support you need, but the final call is always yours.
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And thanks for being here.
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You got this.
40:51
Yeah, we know you got this.