Latest / The Extra Point / Week 5 Preview | Georgia-Alabama, Penn State-Oregon, Ole Miss-LSU, and more

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Week 5 Preview | Georgia-Alabama, Penn State-Oregon, Ole Miss-LSU, and more · The Extra Point

0:00
What's up y'all? You're listening to the Extra
0:02
point college football podcast. I'm your host Jacob Carney has
0:05
joined us always by my Co host Daniel Hammock, Daniel Weir.
0:08
We have made it to week 5 and what could be the biggest week
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of the season as far as games go.
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I mean, there's massive games that we are just, it probably
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won't even make your games. We're watching the list as we
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get to the third quarter of this episode.
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It's a huge, huge week. I might even change one of my
0:25
questions. I might do three questions this
0:27
week because of a stat for this week I want to bring up.
0:29
But big Week 5 ahead, man, I think we just got to dive into
0:32
this one. Yeah, I agree.
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This one's huge. This if if anyone invited you to
0:38
a fall wedding this weekend, I'm not saying violence is the
0:42
answer, but I'm definitely saying RSVP no to that thing.
0:45
So. I was just telling someone this
0:46
week. Do you remember that in It might
0:49
have been 2016 or 2015. It was one of the two.
0:51
After we had met and became friends, a Co worker invited us
0:54
to a wedding. They got married in. 2016 they
0:57
invited us. In 2015, it was that game.
0:58
Yeah. OK, OK, yeah.
1:00
And we knew we said 15. Like us the weekend of that
1:03
game. Yeah, I'm sorry.
1:05
And they're like. How do you know what do?
1:06
You No, we're talking about next year.
1:08
I'm like he too well aware college football always happens
1:11
in September every year so. It was October.
1:14
It was October, I remember. Whatever it was, Yeah, Yeah,
1:16
yeah. Just so you know, it's always
1:19
college football will happen again next year and the year
1:21
after that. So if you plan for the fall, you
1:24
can plan 10 years in advance. You know what?
1:26
I probably will go ahead and tell you nothing.
1:29
Even if it's a bye week, you're going to get like, even if it is
1:32
my team's bye week. That's what people just don't
1:35
understand. But.
1:36
They they know what and if you're listening to this show,
1:38
you probably you probably do understand which which which we
1:41
love and appreciate. My mom's birthday is Saturday.
1:43
Daniel thoughts and prayers, man.
1:45
I already asked her a few weeks ago where she wants to go to
1:47
dinner on Friday or Sunday or if she'd like a Big Breakfast on
1:51
Saturday. Love my mom dude.
1:53
That's a great sun right there. Planning ahead, OK, it's trying
1:57
that. Counts trying to All right, man,
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first quarter. What's one thing you learned
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after these week Four games have wrapped up?
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Dude, I'm going to say if I could say it in all caps, I
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would. The transfer portal matters.
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OK, the top 7 transfer portal classes are currently undefeated
2:18
4 and O through four weeks. So if you're you know, of
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course, I'm going off the the composite on 24/7 sports.
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So that's kind of the industry standard.
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So if you go look there at the transfer portal rankings, the
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top seven, I'm not going to go through every team.
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They're all undefeated currently.
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You know, trans, you know, transfix that against.
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Look, look at Clemson, who's probably the biggest offender of
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the transfer portal. They're one and three.
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I'm not saying that's the only thing, but that's certainly
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something that matters. If you're going to keep up with
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the Joneses, you're going to fill immediate holes on your
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roster. You are going to continue to
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lose players in a transfer portal, so you have to fight
3:00
fire with fire. So if you're going to lose a
3:02
developed talent, you need to bring in developed talent.
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You cannot rely solely on high school.
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Definitely you and I agree. High school is probably the best
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route to go, but you can't. You.
3:12
Have one and not the other. So you definitely have to
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supplement. And dude, if you lose like a guy
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who's about to be your stud starter at wide receiver or
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something, you can't just count on a freshman to come in and do
3:23
it. Those guys need time to develop.
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You know, only the freaks are great right away.
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So you need someone who's, you know, been in a program before.
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So yeah, I'm I'm just very high on, you know, some of that
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correlation. And I know it's early and I know
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there's a lot of non conference. So that's probably puffing up
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their stats. Just if I'm going to be, you
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know, watching Clemson this week, lose to Syracuse in the
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fashion they did, and then just seeing some of these other
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teams, Ole Miss maybe being one of them, just look like they're
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not even skipping a beat from all the people they lost last
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year to the NFL. So just something to keep in
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mind. I love it.
3:58
I thought we had a good tweet today in relation to that
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because that's that was going out.
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I thought it was fascinating. He said the same thing you said,
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which is all right, let's get into conference play and see how
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it goes. And then two and there's teams
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to overlap here. But if you look at national
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title odds, only a couple of those teams are like in the top
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10 for national title odds. Because as you know, it's it's
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the mix like you mentioned, but like Oregon, Miami, top five
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classes in high school, top five classes in transfer.
4:27
Like there's a reason Miami's the favorite when the ACC to
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your point about Clemson, Daniel, I learned something I
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should have learned last year with context, Dude, Kirk
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Zanetti's just a good coach. He's just a good football coach.
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I took Indiana to win. I took Illinois to cover Regret
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that. And he's just going to run it up
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when he gets the chance. He's a quarterback guru.
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You know, Mendoza looks better than work ever looked last year.
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He's 34 and six overall as a head coach.
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He's had Four Seasons of a head coach or this is his fourth
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season. He had two seasons at James
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Madison. He went eight and three and then
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11:00 and 1:00 Indiana last year.
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He goes 11 and two in year 1. He's 4.
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You know, to start the year. I'm liking their just to look at
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their schedule, what they did to Illinois.
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I like their chances to be in playoff position by the end of
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the year. I'm just going to start picking
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Indiana in these games. I still like.
5:19
It's almost like the Penn State principal when they go up
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against a top five team or top ten team.
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Not sure what to do there, but. Like fade them, anything.
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Less than that, and I know if you're going to say, well,
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Illinois was ranking the top ten, they shouldn't have been
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XPR. They were never that high.
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We would never. We would.
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But dude, he's just a great. He's just a good coach.
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He's a quarterback guru, 34 and six overall.
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The winds peak for themselves. I think he rubs people the wrong
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way, including me with some of his comments he's made.
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But good football coach, Kurt Zignetti, good football coach.
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That's what I learned. So you think they're better this
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year than last year. They're a playoff team last
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year, but you think if this year's team lined up against
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last year's team. I don't know.
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I think it's one of those things I'd have to dive into that I'm
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not sure is my answer, but I think that part of this, part of
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what's playing into this is they were on our radar last year and
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so now it's like, wow, they had to replace all that and they're
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still this good. Like I think I doubted them for
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a lot of last year. I don't have to dive into that.
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That's curious that they look very, very good so far.
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I am certainly a prisoner of the moment and I'm looking at
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Mendoza being a NFL quarterback. And so I'm like, OK, he's, you
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know, NFL quarterback versus, you know, last year they had a
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solid, you know, system quarterback.
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But yeah, I think that they could.
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I think Mendoza could be a first round pick this year if he plays
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his plays the rest of the year outright and could be a Heisman
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contender. All that kind of stuff is
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certainly ahead for him. So I like it.
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There's people already, there's people already saying that
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Daniel, that there was someone who came out draft, you know,
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these draft gurus quote, UN quote who had him as first
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quarterback taken as of right now, which he checks a lot.
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Of boxes for NFL guys, which is is big and then he seems like a
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really good processor and he throws a pretty ball all the all
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the makings so awesome. Well, all right.
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Let's jump into quarter two, then I'll go ahead with my first
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question for quarter. 2. Just two questions we have.
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I'm going to go ahead and and get the big one here.
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OK, which trend continues? Is it Caitlin Devore's poor Rd.
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streak or is it Kirby Smarts Elite home streak?
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They're both going to be put to the test this week.
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I don't I'm going to obviously save my pick for later, but
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certainly something to keep an eye on.
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Caitlin de Boer has been most of his losses have come on the road
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and he has not basically, not just on the road, but anywhere
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away from Brent Denny Stadium. He has looked less than stellar.
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His teams have looked sloppy and unprepared.
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I don't know if it's a communication thing, if it's a
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process thing, you know, Saban, you know, we're always going to
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compare it, sorry, but Saban was a, you know, master of process.
8:03
So being able to do that on the road, being able to, you know,
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replicate the same thing every week, you wonder if maybe it's a
8:10
maturity thing. Guys, you know, have a little
8:13
more leeway with De Boer. It could just be dumb luck,
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could just be that they played good teams on the road.
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Could be that it really is that big of an advantage, I don't
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know. And on the flip side, Kirby
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Smart lost three games his first year at Georgia at home and has
8:29
lost one game since that game being IN201933 straight home
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games. I mean, that's elite.
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Obviously you factor in home games, you're also going to play
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smaller opponents at times when you have some of your paid, paid
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games. That kind of comes in with the
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wash. But it is what it is.
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Duties, the longest home winning streak active in college
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football by at least 10 games. So, yeah, that's a big deal.
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And it's in the SEC toughest conference.
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They have not played Alabama and Alabama has stopped multiple
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Georgia streaks previously, whether that be just winning
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streaks for certain seasons or, you know, they've been there,
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their big Achilles heel the past, you know, several years.
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So this is their first time in Athens in the Kirby Smart era,
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so curious how that's going to play out on Saturday.
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It's a good question. Well, I'll have an answer for
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you here in our fourth quarter of the show.
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Then my first question is who's the best team in the state of
9:29
Texas? And I'll ask you.
9:31
I have my ranking, but I'll list the teams, Daniel, because the
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state of Texas has 12 FBS teams. Seven of those are ranked inside
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the top 50 of SP +8. If you get a 55 top 55 N Texas
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being included in that, they've had a very good season.
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But I especially look at the tree, you know, I'll include
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four. I look at the four top schools
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as of right now, which is Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU.
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I accidentally just read my order of how I'd have them right
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now. That's what happened.
10:01
I think Texas A&M is the best team in the state of Texas right
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now. But I think you've got a really
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good like this is a very deep state for college football,
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always has been. But this year especially, you
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know, SMU is kind of falling off, but TCU looks very good.
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Texas Tech looks very good. Texas I know lost at Ohio State,
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but they're still top two or three national title odds.
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A&M has come out one of the road at Notre Dame.
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They've got a big game this week we're going to talk about.
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But that's my question going forward is who is the best team
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in the state of Texas and potentially how many teams in
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the state of Texas get into the comfortable playoff this year
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that. 'D be crazy, man.
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That'd be crazy. Yeah.
10:35
Just as a comment on your question, because I don't know
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the answer. I'm glad we get at least one of
10:39
these. Get Texas and Texas A&M at the
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end of the year to kind of decide it.
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But Texas Tech, I mean, blew the doors off of Utah, at Utah.
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And honestly, it should have been worse.
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And they. They.
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Were held back by some penalties and some procedural stuff
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earlier in the game yeah, Texas, Texas Tech very impressed I
11:00
think I mean they had the backup quarterback in and they were
11:02
doing their thing Will Hammond doing his thing.
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So I'm impressed to say the least with Texas Tech.
11:07
They are maybe a year ahead of where I had them kind of in, in
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this schedule. And again, transfer portal big
11:13
deal. So they're spending money and
11:16
nil and transfer portal bringing in guys.
11:18
So we'll see, man. Texas Tech, they might start
11:22
being the class of the Big 12. I mean, I'm, I, I don't want to
11:24
overreact to one week, but they might start being like the kings
11:28
of the Big 12. And they might give themselves
11:30
an invite to a bigger conference if they do this for a couple
11:33
years and show they're, you know, as committed as they're
11:36
they've shown so far. They're spending like it, right?
11:39
Like they're spending like a program that wants to compete
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and then in a conference that has the most parity and the
11:44
most, you know, average teams, if he can be very good, you can
11:49
absolutely run that conference. So that was my first question,
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Daniel, what is what is your second question as we had into
11:54
Week 5? Yeah, I'm going to keep it in
11:57
the Big 12. Mike Gundy was let go this week.
12:00
He was let go yesterday. I was kind of a a weird
12:04
situation. You know, if they're going to
12:05
fire him, why not on Saturday? Why do they wait?
12:08
Also, you kind of take, you know, everybody money, morning
12:11
quarterbacks, this thing. And it's like, why fire him now?
12:13
Why not give him till the end of the year?
12:15
All the sudden everybody cares about him after he's been fired
12:17
before that they're like, when is he going to be fired?
12:20
So I kind of don't like how people talk out of both sides of
12:23
their mouth. I'll keep it positive because,
12:25
you know, I've always been Gundy fans as far as like his, you
12:30
know, his character that he plays.
12:32
And obviously he's been the best, you know, coach in that
12:36
program's history with very little competition.
12:39
Do you think he's going to change another college football
12:42
program for the better or do you think he's a lot for TV?
12:46
Because I feel like there's been, you know, a lot of people
12:50
just saying, Oh yeah, just sign up and and, you know, go to TV
12:54
and he'll be a great character. I just watched, you know, 5
12:58
minute clip of just all his press conference, you know,
13:02
quotes that he's had over the years and I forgot how many
13:05
great ones there are. Obviously there's this few
13:08
famous ones, but I mean there's just so many good ones.
13:11
So he'd be a great for sound bites.
13:12
But I mean he can coach ball. I think it got stale where he
13:17
was and the message, you know, it just wasn't going to keep
13:20
going through. But I wonder, man, he said him
13:23
and his, I think his cousin or somebody that works on staff
13:27
both said that, you know, it was like he's talked about going
13:30
coaching somewhere else and I'm going with him, you know.
13:32
So I'm wondering if he's going to go somewhere, maybe do a
13:36
field analyst somewhere for a little bit and then work his way
13:39
back on as maybe an OC and then eventually a head coach.
13:42
Or if he's just going to do a try to hop on a small program as
13:46
a head coach right away and work his way up.
13:48
I don't know. Any thoughts there on Mike
13:50
Gundy? He said he wants to coach.
13:52
I just, it's funny. My my second question is who
13:55
will be the next victim of adapt or die or either die hero or you
14:02
live long enough to see yourself become the villain?
14:03
Mike Gundy from 2005 to 2025 From 2006 to 2023.
14:10
I mean never had a losing season, always above 500.
14:13
His first season was his last losing season before four first
14:18
losing season since 2005. They were winless in conference
14:21
play for the first time since 1980, something which is crazy
14:25
because in 2021, Daniel, if you remember the Baylor Oklahoma
14:29
State Big 12 championship where Oklahoma State was one play away
14:33
from the College Football Playoff, they were 12 and 1.
14:35
Baylor holds them at the goal line with that play where the
14:38
guy ran off the pipeline. That one Baylor defender
14:41
one-on-one stops him short and they score that touchdown.
14:44
Daniel, they're in the College Football Playoff in 2021 over
14:47
Cincinnati. They lost the Tulsa at home for
14:49
the first time since the 5th. So you know, Dabo we've talked
14:53
about in in this. I'll come back to Gundy like of
14:56
he's not adapted and how quickly some of your fan base can turn
14:59
on you read a great article from Chris Lowe today of he
15:02
interviewed Kirby Smart and even Kirby said they don't give you
15:06
any grace for being an alumni. He's like, if I start losing,
15:09
they'll be asking me to pack quick.
15:10
He knows that as the head coach who's won two national
15:13
championships recently, just like Dabo has.
15:16
Dabo from 2012 to 2020 only lost more than two games one time in
15:22
2014 since that year. Since 2020, they've got 93937
15:28
and four, seven and four. O and three this season against
15:31
Power 4 opponents. Only a 66% winning percentage
15:35
against higher four opponents since that 2020 season, and
15:38
they've lost five out of the last six games against Power 4
15:40
opponents. My my question is, who's next?
15:42
Is it Kurt Ference? Is it Mark Stoops of this?
15:46
He refused to change, and you know, you live long enough to
15:48
see yourself become the villain. Because Gundy, of course, like
15:52
us growing up as Gundy's been a head coach, had some amazing
15:56
teams, some great moments. I hope he goes to TV selfishly,
16:00
because I think he'd be very good at it.
16:03
I hope he does something independent where you can say
16:06
stuff unfiltered because I think he'd just be a treasure trove
16:08
for entertainment. I don't like how.
16:12
Gruden is, I feel like, I feel like he'd be similar to Gruden
16:15
and the, hey, he's more of a yeah, he was a good coach.
16:20
And I mean, he was a great, you know, great coach at times, but
16:23
a good coach. And but he's he's more fondly
16:25
thought of by what he says. So like, let's not have him be
16:29
hated on the field. Let's like have him be loved off
16:31
the field. Also Paytas.
16:34
Paytas pointed this out like, no one goes to TV and looks worse
16:39
than they did when they were coaching.
16:40
They all look better. Like Dan Mullen, Jon Gruden, a
16:44
good example. Like they because they all go on
16:46
TV and they all know ball and they all look like geniuses
16:49
talking. And it's like, oh, yeah, I
16:51
forgot you were a major college football coach since 2005.
16:55
Like, Oh yeah, Jon Gruden, you won a Super Bowl.
16:58
That's right. You actually know what you're
16:59
talking about. They all look like geniuses.
17:01
And then they all look very attractive to schools once they
17:04
go on TV. So I think for his sake, and
17:06
selfishly for my sake, for entertainment, I'd love to see
17:09
him go to TV. And I think it's going to be a
17:11
good career move because he can look great if he wants to go do
17:13
something at another school. But yeah, best to Gundy.
17:17
It was time. My question is with the timing
17:20
is like if you were going to fire him four games into the
17:22
season, if that was how long his lease was, why in the world did
17:25
he start the season? Yeah.
17:27
That's the kind of stuff I don't get.
17:29
With anyone who's firing coach Virginia Tech, you know, same
17:31
thing goes for them. But yeah, who's next?
17:35
Bingo. I have a bonus question for you.
17:37
This comes from the Bear, Chris Falika.
17:40
Over under 3 1/2 ranked teams on the road this week, losing
17:44
outright to an unranked opponent.
17:46
Here are those games #1 Ohio State at Washington #8 Florida
17:51
State at Virginia #11 Indiana at Iowa #15 Tennessee at
17:56
Mississippi State #16 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest #22 Notre
18:01
Dame at Arkansas #24 TCU at Arizona State #25 BYU at
18:07
Colorado. You might mention some of these
18:08
in your games you're watching. We're not picking any of these
18:10
against the spread, but in, you know, I'll give you the leeway
18:14
to talk about those here a little bit.
18:15
But that's 8 ranked teams on the road against unranked opponents
18:19
that have point spreads under 10 points.
18:21
So it's scary. This is going to be a warning
18:26
now. Don't do anything on Saturday.
18:27
Like there's huge games and there's games like this where
18:31
it's going to be like there's 4 minutes left and Ohio State is
18:35
only up 21 to 20 on Washington. Like what's going on?
18:38
Washington has the ball. What's going on?
18:40
Right. It's hard to win on the road to
18:42
college football, way harder than it is to win on the road in
18:44
the NFL. It's very different and I I
18:48
thought the line was very good over under 3 1/2 ranked teams.
18:51
Me just being a college football fan wants to go over.
18:53
I thought that was a good bonus. Question from Chris Felico there
18:56
on Twitter. Yeah, the first couple you
18:58
mentioned, I'm like under, under, under.
19:01
OK, OK, OK. This is a lot of games, OK, Like
19:05
3 1/2 might be a good number at first.
19:07
I'm like 3 1/2. That's so, you know, maybe.
19:09
Think it's probably 3. Maybe 2, but I mean yes.
19:13
Three's a good. Like a game, a game that I don't
19:16
have on my games watching that I it would just made the cut like
19:19
it just got cut off. It was on the, you know, on the
19:22
cutting room floor. Yeah.
19:24
That was Tennessee at Mississippi State.
19:27
That's just AI. Feel like it's just a sneaky 1.
19:30
Have you seen that spread? No, hold on it, it was.
19:33
It was currently undefeated. Right, they're undefeated
19:36
currently. They should be ranked, for what
19:37
it's worth. And they've definitely surprised
19:40
some people. They're supposed to be the worst
19:43
team in the SEC. Going to Mississippi State is
19:47
always tough #clanga and also just Tennessee.
19:52
Like the gut wrenching loss for Georgia 2 two weeks ago, they're
19:55
able to turn that into a beating, you know, beating UAB
19:58
pretty strong, but like. You know, that was kind of a get
20:03
right game. Are they are they confident
20:05
going into this game? Are they overconfident?
20:07
What's their mindset? I think if both teams play their
20:10
best game, Tennessee should win by, you know, 10.
20:13
But if again, I said both teams playing their best, if not, then
20:18
you know, that leaves room for error.
20:20
And I don't know, Levy seems to have some magic dust on him this
20:24
year. It opened at 10.
20:26
It is down to 7 1/2 our good friend Parker Fleming at Stats A
20:32
War on Twitter. He has a great website,
20:33
cfbgraphs.com. He has Tennessee by 1.4 in his
20:39
projection that, like that game right there, has.
20:43
You know what's going on written all over.
20:45
He has. Some stank on.
20:46
It absolutely. Daniel has been moving to
20:49
halftime of our show. We've got an update to the XPR.
20:52
Not a lot of movement in the top 10.
20:56
I guess a big jump honestly is Alabama and Florida State
20:58
dropping a little bit, but some movement at the bottom.
21:02
We've still got Vandy ranked at 19th, George Tech at 20, Auburn.
21:07
We, unlike the AP, understand context in that I didn't
21:10
understand, you know, this is all This is why I don't like the
21:13
AP poll is you have Illinois, the top ten and people say, oh,
21:18
they got killed. So what?
21:20
We can't drop them 16 spots because I had them at 10 instead
21:25
of which I do this every week, Daniel, I start fresh and say,
21:29
oh, I was wrong. You know which I didn't have
21:31
Illinois, but like maybe 19th in my poll.
21:34
Like, oh, maybe they're like 26 instead of 19th.
21:36
And now they're dropped out. So I think it's you can't be
21:39
like, oh, well, they lost on the road to a ranked opponent.
21:41
So I can't drop them X amount of spots versus wipe the slate
21:45
clean and say who are the best 25 teams or best 25 resumes in
21:48
college football? That being said, because like
21:50
Auburn got dropped out for losing by a touchdown when, you
21:54
know, let's just call it what it was.
21:56
I think Oklahoma won that game worse than the score.
21:58
But when it's A1 score game and you have the SEC say we messed
22:02
up on a touchdown play, when it's A1 score game, you know, to
22:07
to drop Auburn for that and not drop Illinois out.
22:09
But getting beat by 53, I think is is a shame.
22:13
That being said, we have Auburn ranked at 24 and we don't have
22:17
Illinois ranked, USC up at 14, Penn State at 13, behind
22:22
Indiana, which again to this point in the season I think is
22:25
correct, behind Texas Tech as well.
22:27
I think we're we're on that as far as 11 and 12 being good
22:30
spots for Indiana and Texas Tech.
22:31
It's just kind of funny seeing Texas Tech ahead of Texas right
22:34
now. Like, yeah, if you ask him, if
22:38
you're asking me if they played tomorrow, like I might lean
22:42
Texas Tech based off of vibes right now.
22:45
But right, it's just, it's just, it's kind of, you know, it's
22:50
unsettling because. It is unsettling.
22:54
We've been putting Texas at one at 2:00 and it's top five and
22:58
they slowly and slowly are slipping out of that And you
23:03
know, we've got to see them have a big time win something that
23:06
Billy Luigi, Billy Lucci from he said Tex, I believe Texas A and
23:12
it one of their their their, you know, most well known beat
23:14
writer, but he he had that stat about Texas.
23:18
I think it's was 11 out of 14 games that they've played have
23:22
been backup quarterbacks. And then the next two are
23:24
looking very possible that they could be playing backup
23:26
quarterbacks, which Florida might be without Lagway
23:30
potentially. They said he's going to be
23:32
ready. We'll see.
23:33
And then Oklahoma, we didn't even mention this so far, but
23:37
John Matier, first of all, if he won that game with a broken
23:40
hand, I mean impressive. Let's just just throw, give him
23:44
some flowers, OK? Beating Auburn is tough enough.
23:47
Doing it with a broken throwing hands, that was.
23:49
Like the first drive, wasn't it? Yeah, I, I think that's that's
23:52
kind of the what's coming out is the broken bone in the hand.
23:55
Dude, there's a couple. Did he just sling in it?
23:57
And it was I mean, if he's able to throw a ball like that with,
24:01
you know, partially broken hand, I mean, impressive.
24:04
Obviously hope he's speedy recovery because he's been
24:07
really one of the things that's right with college football so
24:09
far this year. So hopefully we get to see him
24:12
and hopefully they get their true chance in the SEC and then
24:15
also potentially in the playoff this year.
24:18
Definitely don't want that. Look, good thing Michael Hawkins
24:20
got that experience last year because if he has to play a
24:22
couple weeks this year, maybe he's more prepared this year to
24:25
kind of step in and be be good. Michael Hawkins junior, their
24:28
backup quarterback. But anyways, yeah, it's it's
24:30
kind of it's kind of weird. Texas at 15, they're slowly
24:34
slipping out of that, you know, honeymoon phase that everybody's
24:37
had them with because Arch just has not looked, you know, he
24:42
had, he had his Heisman moment according to some some folks
24:45
this past weekend against Sam Houston State or I believe
24:48
that's who they played. But yeah, anyways.
24:50
Yeah, John Material. I hope he gets a shot, man.
24:53
All right, third quarter, Daniel, we have a big week
24:56
ahead. We're only picking four games
24:58
here against the spread. What are three games that you've
25:00
got your eye on this weekend? Yeah, you mentioned the couple
25:04
when we were going through our unranked hosting some ranked
25:08
teams that are, you know, on the road.
25:10
First one is just just one that stinks to me, man.
25:14
Virginia welcoming in Florida State Virginia top five in the
25:19
country and running the ball. They are #4 I believe in the FBS
25:24
in in running. Earn some some clean looking
25:27
uniforms. Jacob, I sent it over to you.
25:30
This might be a nice little uniform match up little teaser
25:34
floor state 6 1/2 point favorite on a Friday night when you play
25:37
high school ball. Sometimes it's just I feel like
25:40
bad juju going on when you plan on a Friday night on the road
25:44
against the unranked opponent. I I don't know Florida State,
25:50
they got a big match up coming up with Miami.
25:53
They've got, you know, some big games coming up.
25:56
They just beat the the tar out of kit state.
26:00
We'll see we'll see. That one just stinks to me.
26:03
So I'm curious about it. Other game I'll be watching is
26:06
big game kick off. Dude.
26:07
We don't have it on our pick list and I think it's just
26:10
because of how bad Illinois lost.
26:12
I think we both just kind of, you know, it fell just off the
26:16
card this week for us. So Illinois technically still
26:20
ranked against USCUSC. One of those teams is climbing.
26:23
Jada Maava, really one of the most efficient passers in
26:28
college football right now, continuing his, you know, work
26:31
from last year where he kind of finished the year's starting
26:34
quarterback and then really has looked good so far.
26:36
This year's USC is a 6 1/2 point favorite on the road.
26:39
I'm going to keep my eye on it, man, because if UFC beats them
26:44
handily and it makes me feel good about USC on one since
26:51
Illinois kind of gives them a tough game.
26:53
It kind of just keeps questions out there like is Illinois, did
26:56
they just have one bad week? Is it a bad match up?
26:58
Is USC legit? There's a lot of that kind of
27:01
stuff that comes into it. But you know, you can kind of
27:04
measure Illinois versus Indiana by that common opponent.
27:07
So I'll be keeping my eye on that.
27:09
Last game is another one. You mentioned Notre Dame on the
27:13
road at Arkansas. Arkansas have a gut wrenching
27:18
loss last week to what? Was it last week to Ole Miss or
27:22
week before? Last week, yeah.
27:25
Last week. Yes, sorry, yes.
27:28
OK, anyways, so Arkansas just they they can't get out of their
27:33
own way. Sometimes they have some of
27:35
these losses that just kind of compound and you know, you want
27:40
Sam Pittman. Everybody's a Sam Pittman fan.
27:42
Everyone I talked to, nobody yet.
27:43
I don't feel like anybody has any other will for him.
27:45
They want him to do well. The offenses looked good.
27:49
They've had turnovers. Sometimes they just play tough
27:51
teams and it's tough. This is one of those times where
27:54
I don't know, man. They're at home.
27:57
It's a 3 1/2 point spread. Notre Dame has to win out, Kirk.
28:02
Herb St. has predicted them to win out and make the playoff.
28:05
They have to do it for Kirk. He's putting his life on the
28:08
line. I'm just kidding.
28:08
But Arkansas, I don't know, man. This is just one of those games
28:12
that they're not supposed to win and it's supposed to line up for
28:17
Notre Dame coming in on the road.
28:19
This is one of those that I would circle.
28:21
As you know, you mentioned that long list earlier, you know,
28:24
over under 3 1/2. This is this is one of the 3 1/2
28:27
plus if we're going over, this is one of the ones that has to
28:30
hit, I think because I think Arkansas is the type of team get
28:34
you in a shootout and they've got a guy that can do it.
28:37
So they also have the highest graded offensive line through
28:41
four games so far. I know it's PFF.
28:42
So people, you know, grain of salt and some sometimes they
28:46
weigh heavily. Whatever you want to do with
28:48
PFF, they're #1 rated offensive line.
28:51
Sam Pittman's also that dude when it comes to offensive line
28:54
play. So I at least give it a little
28:55
credence. But yeah, those are my three
28:58
games I'm watching. I love it.
28:59
Those are good. There's plenty more to watch on
29:01
Saturday. Clear the schedules, big
29:03
Saturday. You don't want to miss Dana for
29:05
the third quarter. For me, 3U matchups I've got my
29:08
eye on. I had a list of three 9/12/15 to
29:14
start with. Like a big week for uniforms.
29:16
Here's the three I've settled on.
29:17
UVA I'd like to throwbacks. My hot take on those is 1.
29:20
They don't look that different from their current uniforms and
29:22
two at least their current pants have a pant stripe and those are
29:26
plain. I'm anti plain pants have some
29:29
kind of pants. I like the block numbers, of
29:31
course, but like it, it is a perfect match for a throwback
29:35
and I like the sleeve logo. I've become I've become more of
29:38
a fan of sleeve logos instead of sleeve stripes.
29:41
Like I I want some variation. You know, I don't want everybody
29:43
going to a stripe for everybody having a logo.
29:47
That's why I love the tiger paw and Clemson's shoulders.
29:50
So you need it's clean. It's good, right?
29:53
All right, Ole Miss, LSU, lots of good options.
29:58
I went back through Daniel the last I was in bed last night
30:02
just looking almost first LSU 20/24/2023.
30:05
Just looking at all the uniform matchups, I only saw one bad one
30:09
which was 20. Maybe he's 2020, which you know
30:13
COVID you can throw out that year.
30:15
But Ole Miss wore white helmets, white pants and a red jersey.
30:19
Just didn't look like Ole Miss looked bad.
30:21
Yeah. That was the only bad one, but
30:25
they've worn the combo of red jersey with either a powder blue
30:29
or Navy helmet almost every year.
30:31
And they've worn the powder blue and powder blue a couple times
30:34
against LSU. Plenty of good looks.
30:36
LSU, you know, just a classic look, these color combos.
30:41
Yeah, either red or blue or a mix of both is going to look
30:45
really good against LSU. So really excited for that one
30:47
look. Penn State and Oregon, need I
30:50
say more? Oregon just needs to make a
30:52
clean look. When Oregon messes up Daniel,
30:54
it's usually a color look, not an away look.
30:59
Their away looks are all it's kind of hard to mess up just
31:01
because they have really good templates and they can wear
31:03
different. Being a white out, I feel like
31:05
the optics is just going to look so good, yeah.
31:07
Like the game itself is going to be beautiful.
31:09
Absolutely. It's going to be beautiful to
31:10
watch. Lastly, Washington and Ohio
31:12
State, that's going to be a great one.
31:14
I've become a big fan of Washington's uniforms.
31:16
Their latest updates Very very clean.
31:19
I am reading for Daniel that Washington wears gold helmet
31:23
purple jersey, gold pants because in Ohio State's going to
31:25
have silver helmet white jersey, silver pants.
31:29
So that'll be or grey whatever that could be really
31:32
aesthetically pleasing and like the red and the purple kind of
31:35
being opposite sides will pop Hope they don't go purple units
31:40
art. It won't make the list at the
31:42
end of the week here that I'll do.
31:44
I didn't forget to mention into the winner of the uniform
31:46
matchup of the week for Week 4 was Michigan State and USC,
31:51
which we did have on our watch list that looked beautiful on
31:55
TV. I'll mention a couple more.
31:57
Arkansas Notre Dame can be very good.
32:00
Georgia Bam is a great helmet game but the two different
32:04
shades of red don't look great And hot take, I don't love
32:07
Alabama's away uniforms. Just never been a fan to me
32:10
personally Because the Crimson doesn't really pop on the
32:12
helmet. It's kind of dull in on the
32:14
jersey as well. The home the jersey color at
32:16
home looks great but when it's like pops of Crimson it's too
32:19
dull for me. Arizona State TCU could be
32:23
great. Texas AM Auburn, Iowa State in
32:26
Arizona be very good. Kansas State, UCF, West
32:30
Virginia, Utah, lots of good uniform matchups to keep your
32:33
eye on this week. I'm a like my 3 excited to see
32:36
what wins Uniform match of the week for this week.
32:40
You know, fourth quarter of our show.
32:44
Fourth quarter is where great teams become elite and win
32:48
football games. We got to pick some winners
32:51
because I'm starting from behind here man.
32:52
I am 35% and get to spread this year.
32:55
Year 41, you're 7 and 10. I'm 6:00 and 11:00.
32:59
I need a four and a week just to make it look respectable at this
33:02
point. I need it bad and with a four
33:05
and a week for you, Daniel, you could get above 500, still be a
33:08
game below 500, but we got to get there.
33:11
Ding, our first game almost in OSU just talked about it going
33:17
to be a great uniform match up. We could call this the
33:21
relationship bowl, call this the what a week to hard launch a
33:25
relationship. Landry Kiffin wit weeks Lane
33:28
Kiffin tweeted take the over elite.
33:31
I love Lane on Twitter. I thought that was great.
33:34
He's just active on Twitter, man.
33:36
Kiffin on Twitter? Yes, yes, dude.
33:39
He's so active on Twitter that I'm like, I'm just going to
33:41
start tweeting him and see if he responds because he just
33:43
responds to randos. We'll see, but sure.
33:46
Oh miss Daniel. This started off as a 2 point
33:50
favorite in LSU's favor. It is gone as high as 2 1/2 to
33:54
Ole Miss. It's a 1 1/2 Ole Miss favored
33:56
right now. Very much a picking game.
33:59
Who do you like in this game in Oxford?
34:01
Yeah, there's, there's part of me that's got, you know, a sense
34:06
of the yips because I'm still under 500 as far as our picks
34:09
go. Get it?
34:11
We're inching our way back and we're getting we're getting more
34:14
data for understanding more. Jacob, I'm I'm going to be bold
34:19
with this one. I mean this this is my gut miss
34:23
is going to win this game. They're going to win it.
34:26
It may be a shootout. There may be times where we're
34:28
like, oh, this is you know, but I you know, LSU has been known
34:32
for defense so far this year. Ole Miss has been known for
34:37
offense when they beat what would they be two lane last week
34:41
in the week before it was Arkansas or mixing those two up
34:44
two lanes a good team. They are they're good quality
34:48
opponent and Ole Miss gave them no chance.
34:52
Arkansas had that game one against Ole Miss at times or at
34:58
least had a had, you know, a spark of life took the ball
35:02
away. Ole Miss is just a better team.
35:05
They just keep coming. You know, we've talked a little
35:09
bit about them so far this year. You know, Austin Simmons was
35:12
kind of the known commodity coming into the year.
35:15
He was the backup quarterback to Jackson Dart last year.
35:18
He had a, you know, a great drive against Georgia.
35:20
He had some games where he got to play.
35:23
And then coming into this year, he like, won the job and it
35:25
seemed like this great, you know, OK, he's the next guy.
35:29
Trinidad Chambliss has come in. He's taken over this job right
35:34
now while Austin Simmons is getting healthy.
35:37
All respect in the world, Austin Simmons, I don't think he's
35:40
getting his job back. Trinidad Chambliss has looked.
35:44
They have announced, by the way, I was going to meant to say this
35:46
on the front end. This was like within the last 30
35:48
minutes. Trinidad Chambliss is starting
35:50
this weekend. OK, OK.
35:52
So just for clarity, he's starting.
35:55
That's who I. But you were, you were leading
35:57
toward, Yeah, that's right. You were leading that way
35:58
anyway. But he is officially, I think.
36:00
I think he might be the best dual threat quarterback in the
36:03
SEC, maybe in the country the way he has played.
36:06
And I just mean from an efficiency standpoint, he does
36:09
both well. A lot of times when you call a
36:11
guy dual threat, it means like he's just a good runner.
36:14
And sometimes if a guy's an elite passer and can scramble
36:19
and get a first down, we all think that that's, you know,
36:22
dual threat. This guy, I think is as close to
36:24
50% on both as anybody. So I, I, you know, take that for
36:28
what it's worth. But Ole Miss lines of scrimmage
36:32
has looked strong so far this year.
36:34
I think just the vibes pic, I'm going Ole Miss.
36:39
This is a proud dad who's going to avenge his daughter.
36:43
Being in a relationship. You're not you're not going to
36:46
get the better of him wit weeks is going to be running for his
36:50
life trying to tackle whoever he can.
36:52
He's had some great games. Was it last year in this game?
36:55
I think he had 18 tackles. So he's he definitely knows his
36:58
way, you know, around the defense.
37:00
So he will him and his brother great players.
37:03
LS US got a strong defense. I think this is their biggest
37:07
challenge so far this year. That Clemson win has become more
37:10
of a distant memory. It has become less impressive
37:14
week after week to give me Ole Miss.
37:15
I'm laying the points. It's basically a pick em 1 1/2.
37:19
I think Ole Miss wins this one even if it becomes a shootout.
37:22
I think they win by 7 but I like them by 10 in this game.
37:27
Wow, OK, so good on good in this game.
37:30
Daniel is going to be the Ole Miss offense against the LSU
37:32
defense. I would argue it's the first
37:34
real test for both of those units.
37:36
You know hindsight's 2020, right?
37:39
So who has challenged the LSU defense so far?
37:42
Turns out, not really anybody, but they've looked very good.
37:45
And I guess same for the Ole Miss offense.
37:47
So in yards per play, Ole Miss is averaging 7.4 yards of play
37:50
on offense that good. That's good for 14th in the
37:52
country. She's defense rings 21st in that
37:55
category as far as EPA per play. Now I'll add context.
37:59
I feel like I mentioned this a lot.
38:02
I love advanced stats. I'm a nerd.
38:04
If you're not like me and don't understand that, I'll explain it
38:07
simply as I can. Expected points added is EPA,
38:12
right? So basically every play has a
38:14
point value on it. Like if you average, you know,
38:17
you take all the data from college football for forever and
38:20
you know that, you know, second and four from the 46 has a point
38:23
value on that play. Given that here's what the
38:27
expected point should be for this play.
38:29
So it's how do you perform relative to what the expected
38:33
points were, right? So the expected points on 3rd
38:35
and three from your own 46 might be, you know, point O 1-2 and if
38:41
you get a first down, you're expected points added was like
38:44
.1. That's a good gain there.
38:46
Anyway, simply I'll say EPA combines both efficiency and
38:51
explosiveness. That's why I like it is in the
38:54
arts word play is more about efficiency, how efficient
38:56
success rate more about efficiency.
38:58
EPA accounts for that plus explosiveness, which I like.
39:01
It's it's a good in context stat.
39:03
That being said, EPA a play Ole misses offense third in the
39:06
country so far this year, LSU's defense 27th in that category.
39:10
EPA rush. Daniel, this is as far as EPA
39:13
goes, the best running offense in the country in EPA per rush
39:17
with Ole Miss against a top 30 defense for LSU and then for the
39:21
pass almost as top 15. LS U's defense top 20.
39:25
This is good on good, but I think the match up is going to
39:27
decide the game. Daniel is almost as defense
39:29
against LS U's offense. How healthy is is Garrett
39:31
Nussmeyer? If I can donate to that
39:33
question, I'm going to be more confident.
39:34
Pick which line of scrimmage holds up in that match up.
39:39
Almost a defensive line is not what it was a year ago and
39:41
almost as offensive line, or excuse me, LSU's offensive line,
39:44
it's not what it was a year ago. The Ole Miss defense is not
39:47
efficient, but they are limiting explosive plays.
39:49
So again, they ranked 67th and yards were played allowed and
39:54
121st in yards per reception. But they're 6th in EPA per play
39:59
and they're third in EPA against the rush.
40:02
So. They're not efficient.
40:04
They're allowing a high success rate.
40:05
They're allowing a lot of yards per carry, but they're not
40:08
giving up explosive runs or pass passes on defense.
40:12
Meanwhile, LSU is 75th in the Archer play, 109th in yards per
40:17
carry. They're not they're not been
40:18
able to run the ball so far. They're and they're 60th in EPA
40:21
per play, 33rd in EPA per rush. So they're not being efficient
40:24
or explosive. I think that decides the game
40:26
taking almost to win. I'm taking Ole Miss to cover.
40:30
LSU is 91st and success rate on offense right now.
40:32
The offensive lines. I don't think Ole Miss has less
40:36
holes at home tight game. I like it by four to seven
40:40
points. I like Ole Miss to cover.
40:41
Yeah, LSU's offense is just. They were right to ask Brian
40:44
Kelly about the offense. It's not been up to the
40:47
standard. LSU and Daniel, after having a
40:49
bad week in picks last week, I said last week, trust your eyes.
40:54
And I should have listened to myself because if I trust my
40:57
eyes last week, Daniel, I would have gone 3 in one in picks.
40:59
I should have trust my eyes. What I saw with Nebraska in that
41:02
first game was in Cincinnati. They're only real competition.
41:05
I picked Indiana to win, but I should have trust my eyes in the
41:08
all right. I know I'm kind of low
41:10
insignity, but they're kind of blowing teams out.
41:11
Trust your eyes, man. Something's wrong with the LSU
41:14
offense. This looks like they're clicking
41:16
yet again under Lane Kiffin. Rest your eyes.
41:19
The stats back me up on this one almost to win and cover.
41:22
You and I are on the same side there.
41:26
We stay in the SEC, go to College Station, TX, A&M kind of
41:32
a weird spot here off of by Auburn coming off of a loss to
41:36
Oklahoma and Auburn go on the road, beat Texas A and M1 of
41:42
these matchups where you got a, excuse me, ranked versus
41:46
unranked. Texas A&M is at home, though, so
41:48
that's why I didn't make that list.
41:50
They're a 6 1/2 point favorite at home.
41:51
Daniel, who do you like in College Station?
41:53
Yeah, I think it's interesting. I agree with you.
41:55
This just kind of interesting spot for both of them.
41:58
If you look at it, neither one of them.
42:00
This isn't like a chief rivalry. This isn't like a game that both
42:04
of them circle of like, I hate this team or anything like that.
42:07
Auburn coming off of playing at Oklahoma, Jackson Arnold having
42:11
his homecoming of sorts. And then you've got, you know,
42:14
Texas A and them is their first SEC game.
42:17
They're coming off a bye week. So it's like, you know, they're
42:19
rested, so to speak. Auburn.
42:23
Kind of little more. Roughed up a little bit.
42:26
That was a defensive game, just a battle against Oklahoma line
42:30
of scrimmage. They were not able to run the
42:33
ball very well. I think they ended with like 60
42:36
total rushing yards. One of those was Jeremiah Cobb
42:39
had like a 45 yard run, something like that.
42:41
So it was like, you know, they were not able to consistently do
42:45
it. Now I was surprised at down like
42:49
when they needed it. Cam Coleman wasn't surprised by
42:52
Cam Coleman, but I felt like Jackson Arnold was able to get
42:54
the ball to Cam Coleman when they had to have it when they
42:57
had, you know, long play getting out of their own side of the
43:00
field, those deep pass touchdown pass, the Cam Coleman was huge.
43:04
So I came away impressed with Auburn, even though, you know,
43:07
Oklahoma won that game. These two these two teams both
43:12
have quarterbacks, you know, and Marcel Reed and and Jackson
43:14
Arnold that are maybe more proficient runners than passers.
43:21
And so they're you know, they're left hand, so to speak, is their
43:25
pass game. You know, Jeremiah Cobb, leading
43:28
rusher coming into this game. NMS been a little bit better in
43:32
the air and they not quite the same competition.
43:35
Obviously they did come off that huge win against Notre Dame, you
43:39
know, finding a way to do it, you know, in the last little
43:42
bit, putting all that together. And I think that was a way that
43:47
was a game that Texas A&M didn't want to play.
43:51
I don't think they wanted to play in a shootout fashion.
43:54
I think they want to be a defensive type team.
43:57
I think this game will be lower scoring.
44:00
It's not going to be a shootout and I think they're going to be
44:03
trading blows. I expect this to be a close
44:06
game, 6 1/2 points spread for A&M, so a full touchdown.
44:11
To me, this is a principal play. I liking them to win the game.
44:15
I'm going to. I'm going to potentially middle
44:17
this really saying I'm abstaining from officially
44:20
saying Texas A&M will win. I would like if you said who
44:26
just outright wins this game, I would lean Texas A&M, but 6 1/2
44:30
points to me is too much. I'm going to go to Auburn.
44:33
I like Auburn to with the points cover.
44:39
This is a game that, you know, they have to go on the road to
44:42
Kyle Field. It's tough to go on the road in
44:44
the SEC. So I don't know if they're going
44:47
to come out with outright win. But I do think that this game is
44:51
going to get kind of ugly and they're going to play close.
44:55
I think Texas and probably could win, you know, by a field goal
44:58
and it'd be, you know, just what the doctor ordered for both
45:01
teams. So give me Auburn.
45:04
Give me the 6 1/2 points. I think A&M probably wins, but
45:09
they're not 6 1/2 points better at home, I don't think right
45:12
now. So I didn't I told you before
45:13
the show, I feel confident about 3 picks, not confident in one.
45:18
This is this the 1 I feel least confident in.
45:22
I'm I'm taking Auburn with you So and the points I do think Tex
45:26
A&M wins. It's a weird spot for Auburn.
45:28
I hate that they're coming off a loss to Oklahoma and
45:30
back-to-back Rd. and Texas A&M is coming off a buy.
45:32
I think the spread is where it is because I, I do think just
45:39
situationally like this could get sideways, right?
45:42
Like Texas A&M winning by 17 would not surprise me.
45:48
I just feel like, Oh yeah, back-to-back Rd. games.
45:50
That's exhausting. You know, in the SEC, get it.
45:54
My my worry with Texas A&M. That's why I'm confident is I
45:57
think Auburn wants to make Marshall Reed win through the
45:59
air and then shut down the ring game, which they've done well on
46:01
defense this year, but Texas A&M has been able to do it.
46:04
You saw him do on the road at Notre Dame.
46:08
So Texas A&M is going to make Jackson Arnold do the exact same
46:11
thing Auburn did, successfully shut down Oklahoma's run game
46:14
and prevent an explosive place. I think they can do that in this
46:17
spot. I think Oklahoma's offense is
46:20
better than Texas A&M's now. I wrote that sentence down on my
46:23
nose before I knew about the hand injury material had.
46:27
So maybe that game gets sideways if he's not hurt the whole game.
46:30
I don't know. Auburn was able to run the ball,
46:33
not thrive running the ball in that game.
46:35
Oklahoma's defense. I think Oklahoma's a better team
46:37
than Texas A&M right now. So I watched the close
46:39
performance on the road and I'm I'm with you.
46:41
I'm like 6 1/2. Just sounds like a lot.
46:44
Texas A&M has struggled in the red area preventing points.
46:46
They're teeth in points per quality drive allowed was when
46:50
teams get down there, they're scoring.
46:52
Auburn's done well in that in Texas A&M, 63rd in net points
46:56
per drive. So again, like they're kind of
46:58
letting teams score as they get down there.
46:59
Think Auburn can win the game? I don't think they will.
47:02
I'm taking the 6 1/2. I'm not confident in it.
47:04
I don't know what my eyes are telling me here.
47:06
The stats are kind of all over the place.
47:08
The point spread I think should be closer, but it makes me think
47:11
the bye week and the situationally in a situational
47:15
football is kind of going into this files make fights.
47:18
I think this is these are two teams that are built very
47:22
similarly. So that's what makes me think
47:24
this is like AI mean 2421 like lower scoring.
47:29
You know, you just get out with a win and you're happy with that
47:32
if you're Texas A&M. So I'll take the points down in
47:35
middle lit thinking and wins. It'll give me the Auburn plus 6
47:38
1/2 in this one. We go to the white out Penn
47:43
State 3 1/2 point favorite against Dan Lanning in Oregon.
47:48
Annual. Who do you like in the white out
47:51
that night again against the top ranked opponent.
47:54
Finally, I'm thinking NBC for getting this game instead of
47:57
Fox. Who do you like in the White
47:58
out? Yeah, we before the season went
48:02
through our picks. I was under the assumption,
48:06
because I've been promised that Penn State would be improved at
48:11
wide receiver because they had these transfer receivers.
48:15
We have not necessarily seen that yet as far as that
48:19
explosiveness offensively. They have continued to miss
48:24
Tyler Warren in this offense. I think this is their first
48:28
Test. So this is our first time we're
48:30
going to get to kind of see these things come to fruition.
48:33
So if they have been just slow going it, you know, and not
48:36
maybe cutting it loose, this is the first game we will see them
48:40
cut loose. Not, for what it's worth, Penn
48:41
State. White out, man.
48:44
This is a big deal. It's an at night, it's a white
48:47
out. I said before this season that
48:50
Penn State would go one-on-one in the games with Oregon and
48:55
Ohio State. The easier game to say they're
48:58
going to win between those two is this one because it's a home
49:01
game. It's a white out.
49:02
It's got to be Oregon's look really good, man.
49:06
For the past 2-3 weeks, I think I've thought of them as the
49:08
number one team in the country. Dante Moore is special at
49:13
quarterback. Dan Landing is just one of those
49:16
guys that's just going to have his team prepared.
49:19
He's he's won big games. They've played each other.
49:21
You know, these coaches have gone against each other before.
49:24
I look at look at all of that kind of stuff last week.
49:28
You know, sometimes they say to you know, it's, it's good to
49:32
learn from your mistakes, but it's it's even better to learn
49:35
from others mistakes. And Jacob, there's not a dig at
49:38
you, but you pin Nebraska against Michigan and you didn't
49:43
trust your eyes. So I am not going to fall into
49:47
that trap and take Penn State. I'm going with Oregon.
49:51
They get points on the road, 3 1/2 points on the road, give me
49:57
the Ducks. Dude, shout out Oregon.
49:59
I think they're the best team in the country.
50:01
If you're going to give the best team in the country any points,
50:03
I don't care if it's a white out.
50:05
I think this team is white out Proof.
50:08
So I think Oregon wins outright, but I'll just take 3 1/2 as some
50:11
buffer just in case. How about that?
50:14
Dan Lanning said you don't play an environment, you play at the
50:18
team across from you. That'll give you some, yeah, in
50:22
the right mindset there. For sure.
50:24
Let's add some context to you. It's going to be said at nauseam
50:27
this week, but it needs to be said.
50:29
James Franklin's record against top ten teams.
50:31
Daniel, I feel like the wrong numbers throw it out.
50:33
I just went back and counted by I went to each individual season
50:37
and looked at results against top ten teams at the time they
50:39
played them. He's 4 and 20 since he took over
50:42
at Penn State against top ten teams.
50:46
And if you take out some bowl game wins, I mean like 2024 and
50:50
2 in the regular season against Big 10 teams that are in the top
50:53
ten. I'll just read you in the
50:55
regular season. Here's his record against top
50:57
ten teams, O and 2O and 2O and 2O and three O and one O and one
51:03
O and 2O and 1-2 and one that was 2016 O and 2O and 1.
51:08
Oregon's going to win the game. Daniel, I, until you got
51:11
approved me, can win these games, man.
51:13
And the reason is, here's the thing, James.
51:15
James Franken gets a lot of crap because of this and gets called
51:17
overrated as a head coach. He's absolutely not.
51:20
Penn State is on average the third best program in the Big
51:23
10, probably 4th now. They're just not on the same
51:26
level. They don't have the same level
51:27
of athlete as Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan's.
51:30
When they play those teams, they lose even in whiteout games.
51:34
The last wideout they won against one of those teams it
51:38
was ranking the top 10 because Michigan tents have down the
51:39
years was Ohio State in 2016. Oregon has looked like the best
51:43
team in the country. I think a great match up to
51:45
watching this game is going to be to Corey More against AJ
51:47
Harris. They'll be exciting.
51:49
But dango for asking which quarterback I trust more in the
51:52
spot. I trust Dante more and more on
51:54
the road than I do drown at home.
51:56
He's looked awful this year. Penn State is 78th in the
51:58
country and points per quality drive through. 85th and 3rd and
52:02
4th down success rate and Oregon is top 25 in that category of
52:05
defense. Oregon wins 2420.
52:07
I need to see it before I pick. I take Penn State in the spot
52:10
like this. Yeah.
52:10
Oregon plus 3 1/2. You know, Josh paid Pikmin State
52:15
and he said the reason was like Penn State needs this one.
52:17
They have to have it. And I agree, they have to have
52:20
it. That doesn't mean they're going
52:21
to get it. They've been having to have, you
52:23
know, they'd need a win like this for several years now.
52:26
This is the team I know. This is like a if not now win
52:30
Penn State team. I think it's going to be win.
52:33
I think that's going to be the answer.
52:34
I'm trusting my eyes. Daniel, Oregon plus 3 1/2.
52:36
But we're not going to need it. They're going to win out, right.
52:38
I'm with you, all right. Biggest game of the day for for
52:45
my book, Daniel George and Alabama.
52:47
This has been the game of the sport, you could say, for the
52:51
last decade or so. This is every SEC champion since
52:57
2014, except for one year, that 2019 LSU team.
53:02
There was a while there, Daniel, where from 2020, from 2007 until
53:08
20/21, with the exception of one year, which was 20, the winner
53:12
of the national championship had to go through Alabama to get
53:14
there. They had to beat Alabama.
53:16
They've been the standard of the sport.
53:18
Nick Saban retires, Kirby's pretty consistently known as the
53:21
heir apparent. He runs the sport now.
53:23
Best coach in the sport. 11 against Kaylin de Boer, Kirby's
53:27
one and six against Bama. You mentioned the couple other
53:30
streaks at play here, 33 consecutive home runs for
53:32
Georgia. It's the longest streak in the
53:34
country. I've got some other stats I want
53:36
to save for my big Daniel. Georgia 2 1/2 point favorite at
53:39
home, which means neutral site. This could be a pick em or a
53:42
slight Alabama favorite. Daniel, who do you like in this
53:45
game in Athens? Yeah, I and this one you
53:51
mentioned, you know, not really having a beat on Texas A and it
53:54
Auburn. I feel that way about this one,
53:57
to be honest with you. It's one of the ultimate, you
54:00
know, mind freaks, I guess, or you're like, I don't know if I
54:04
don't know, I don't know what to believe at times.
54:05
So, you know, you and I've been close to this game for a long
54:08
time. We've seen Georgia and Alabama
54:10
play and we've seen their trajectories even when they
54:13
don't play certain seasons. Obviously there's all the, you
54:17
know, the culmination of, you know, Kirby Smart, you know,
54:21
under the tutelage of Nick Saban comes to Georgia, essentially
54:25
replicates what is going on in Alabama, comes fruition by
54:29
actually winning a championship over them in 2021, followed up
54:33
by a back-to-back national championship season.
54:36
Alabama has still had Kirby and Georgia's number in those years.
54:41
Other than that national championship game win.
54:44
A Georgia would be would be winless against Alabama
54:47
otherwise. So, you know, kind of factoring
54:49
all that in whether this SEC championship or regular season
54:52
game, this is the first time since Kirby Smart has been at
54:56
Georgia that the game is in Athens.
54:58
Does that matter? I think it does.
55:00
But is this a, you know, do you chalk it up to OK, it was the
55:06
the master versus The Apprentice?
55:08
If you want to, you know, go with Star Wars, potentially
55:11
with, you know, Nick Saban just owning, you know, all of his
55:15
assistants. Flip it over to now it's Caitlin
55:18
Abour and maybe there's not the same tendency lock that there
55:24
may have been previously where they were trying to analyze each
55:26
other previously. Now it's like, OK, you were just
55:29
playing ball. Well, that's still a very good
55:31
team over there. They still have great players.
55:34
It's a different coaching staff to play a different defense than
55:37
they used to. And different doesn't
55:39
necessarily mean worse. After game one this year, I
55:43
would be ready to just say slam dunk, it's Georgia after, you
55:48
know, Florida State, you know, beating, beating Alabama as
55:51
handily as they did. Now that obviously there's
55:53
weather involved, There was some shock involved.
55:56
There's some different things like that.
55:57
Alabama has flipped the switch. They flipped the switch against
56:01
Louisiana Monroe 73 to nothing. I know it's Louisiana Monroe.
56:04
Say whatever joke you want. They beat them 73 to nothing.
56:07
They didn't play around. They beat Wisconsin handily.
56:11
I know Wisconsin is not Wisconsin of old, not even
56:14
close. So, you know, maybe it's a
56:17
glorified G6 win. Maybe it's, you know, P4 win.
56:22
They're they're still in power 4.
56:23
So we're going to call it a power 4 when they beat them 38
56:25
to 14. Georgia had a very impressive
56:28
win against Tennessee, But how did they beat them?
56:31
They did beat them on the road and they beat them in a game
56:34
that they didn't like to play. Both teams have had a bye week,
56:38
kind of had to salivate on it and decide, you know, what do I,
56:41
how do I see this game playing out?
56:45
Ty Simpson has been, you know, very efficient ever since, you
56:49
know, basically the second game on in getting the ball to his
56:52
receivers. For everybody that talks about
56:55
Ryan Williams, I mean, Jeremy Bernard is their offensive MVP.
56:59
He does everything. They slide him in to run the
57:01
ball, they throw the ball to him.
57:03
He leads their team in receiving yards.
57:05
I think he might be the fastest player or if not, he's close to
57:08
it. 3 touchdowns on the season so far and they get Jim Miller
57:14
back this week, or at least they're projected to running
57:17
back. He's their projected starter to
57:19
start the year. So I think he brings some
57:21
toughness. He brings some protection
57:24
offensively. He's very good at the, you know,
57:27
pass protection from the running back position.
57:29
So Alabama's offense against Georgia's defense, I do think
57:33
they're going to have success. Now you got to flip it around.
57:38
Does Georgia have enough offensively to outscore that?
57:42
They had to do it against Tennessee on the road.
57:44
They're going to be at home for the first time, like I said, in
57:48
the Kirby Smart era against Alabama.
57:50
Does that make a big difference? I mean, this home environment
57:54
for Georgia has seen 33 straight wins.
57:58
I like Gunner Stockton with his legs and after the game against
58:02
Tennessee, I like him with his arm.
58:04
I think that he can make the throws he needs to when he's
58:07
needs to be clutched. I think Georgia wins this game.
58:09
That's my gut is just I think George is going to win.
58:12
We've just seen so much of the other I've I'm baking in a lot
58:16
of this Jacob from Penn State and Oregon.
58:18
You know my thoughts of I'm not going to overthink this.
58:21
Penn State has not done it. I bake that into Georgia has not
58:28
just outright beating Alabama, but they also haven't had the
58:31
opportunity to do it at home. And I'm going to use that kind
58:36
of as my guidepost here. The SEC is hard to win.
58:40
It's hard to win on the road. I like the home team to win.
58:43
I picked Texas A&M to win, but to lose, you know, not to cover.
58:47
So you know, I'm, I'm in that sense, it's, it's, it's not all
58:51
home teams here. But give me give me Georgia.
58:54
If it's 2 1/2, I'll take that. I'll lay the 2 1/2 to where a
58:59
field goal win gets it. I don't think there's style
59:01
points involved at all. I think you throw that out.
59:04
I think a one point win is acceptable.
59:06
It's just win at this point. So give me Georgia Lay the 2
59:11
1/2. This one's going to be hard,
59:13
though. It's going to be tense the whole
59:15
night. Does this change?
59:16
Sorry I thought I updated this on here.
59:18
It is 3 now. OK, does that change your pick
59:21
at all? I mean, so it's, it's worst case
59:24
I'm getting a push, worst case I'm getting a push.
59:27
If I get a three-point win, I'll stick with Georgia laying the
59:29
points. OK, this one's a big one, man, I
59:31
said. Kirby Curry's one and six
59:33
against Bama 0, those games in Athens, 33 consecutive home
59:36
wins. K win, the board's record
59:38
against Power 4 opponents 7 and five, his record on the road
59:42
power for opponents 2 and 4. But look, Florida State game, I
59:45
firmly believe is in the past. You and I are part of several
59:48
group chats and I read some of the dynasty's dead, Bama's dead.
59:51
And I'm like, we saw this team do this last year of it might
59:56
be, but I'm like that's it's one game.
59:58
It's week one. They have their roster to
1:00:00
absolutely flip the switch. We saw them get all the way up
1:00:04
for the Georgia game. We've seen De Boer also give
1:00:07
trouble to some. Say Sabin tree defenses.
1:00:11
So I mean completely out schemed and out coached Kirby for 1/2
1:00:15
last year, completely outclassed and out schemed, landing two or
1:00:19
three times when he was at Washington and he was in Oregon.
1:00:23
Let's take a look at the Alabama offense.
1:00:24
So yards per play, Alabama's offense 18th, George's defense
1:00:28
drink 62nd in that category. EPA per play, Alabama 22nd.
1:00:34
Georgia defense third in that category.
1:00:37
EPA per rush Bama 46, George defense 9th in that category.
1:00:41
EPA per pass, 24th for Alabama, 8th for Georgia, 3rd and 4th
1:00:46
down success rate, 26th for Alabama.
1:00:49
Georgia defense rings 15th in that category.
1:00:52
We've also seen the ceiling of what Alabama can do when we saw
1:00:54
what George, what Tennessee was able to do to Georgia through
1:00:58
the air. So if I'm looking at a match up
1:00:59
here, it's Alabama has the opportunity to do it.
1:01:01
Tennessee did through the air and Georgia showed a weakness
1:01:04
there in that Tennessee game. Also, George gotten 0 sacks on
1:01:07
the year. It's kind of crazy from from
1:01:09
defensive lineman especially. Can they can they flip that in
1:01:12
this game? We'll took on the other side of
1:01:14
the ball. George's offense 66 in the
1:01:16
Archer play. Bama's defense 31st in that
1:01:18
category. EPA Georgia 7th EPA per rush
1:01:22
9th, EPA per pass 7th. The offense looks very good.
1:01:25
Bama's defense has the ability to look good.
1:01:28
Here's where I see a major problem to Daniel 3rd and 4th
1:01:31
down success rate, and I like third and 4th down success rate
1:01:33
because this stat accounts for if you go forward and 4th down,
1:01:38
it doesn't punish you for not getting it on 3rd down.
1:01:40
So it's 3rd and 4th down success rate in the if you go forward
1:01:44
and 4th and get it, that counts as a successful play for both of
1:01:47
those categories. It's.
1:01:48
Kind of like those ES in baseball, like you factor in the
1:01:52
failure of 1 is a success on the next one.
1:01:56
Yeah, because if you, you know, if it's fourth and three and
1:01:59
you're on the opponents 45 and you know we've got 2 plays, it's
1:02:03
not going to punish you for getting 2 yards on 3rd down and
1:02:06
then getting two more on 4th. It's just going to say you were
1:02:08
successful on that drive to get the first down on 3rd or 4th
1:02:11
down. Right, OK.
1:02:13
In that category, Georgia's offense 22nd in the country,
1:02:15
Bama's defense 104th. So that's why I'm starting to
1:02:18
see a crack here. Let me.
1:02:19
So part of me, Daniel, was they've looked unbeatable since
1:02:23
the 4th state game. That was a light bulb moment,
1:02:25
like they fixed a lot of problems.
1:02:27
Let me tell you what I can't Unsee.
1:02:29
I can't Unsee what they did in the road last year.
1:02:31
They're one, you know, great moment was against LSU on the
1:02:35
road. They played undisciplined
1:02:38
against Florida State. That is what's hard to Unsee.
1:02:40
They have all the talent in the world.
1:02:41
This roster lines up and you could argue this roster is
1:02:44
better than George's roster. The defensive line is not lived
1:02:46
up to the billing. George's going to run Gunner
1:02:49
Stockton like Florida State rank Tommy Castellanos.
1:02:52
They're going to run him in this game.
1:02:53
This is what you when you have a running quarterback, you kind of
1:02:56
save the legs for these games of like no holds bar, just like
1:03:00
we're going to run you as many times as it takes because we
1:03:02
want to win the game. George's going to do that with
1:03:04
Gunner Stockton this game. My question is, can Georgia rush
1:03:07
the passer? I do think whichever team can
1:03:09
get to the quarterback will win the game.
1:03:11
Georgia last year, when it looked like it had no ability to
1:03:15
do so, went on the road to Austin.
1:03:18
They flipped the switch. They had 7 sacks in the game
1:03:21
against Texas. They had six sacks against Texas
1:03:23
in the SEC Championship. The offensive line was probably
1:03:25
the best in the conference last year.
1:03:27
If Georgia does that, I think it solves some of the secondary
1:03:29
problems you saw against Tennessee.
1:03:31
If you're getting to the quarterback, it's not going to
1:03:33
matter how long you get to be in coverage.
1:03:34
I think Georgia makes this a non issue.
1:03:37
I think they blitz all night and I don't think the Alabama
1:03:40
offensive line, for as talented as they are, they've not showed
1:03:43
the effort. It's a 2 1/2 point spread.
1:03:45
I think this is a touchdown game.
1:03:47
Really hard to Unsee that Florida State game.
1:03:49
I know they've looked perfect the last two weeks.
1:03:51
I just think some of the stuff you saw in that game is not
1:03:55
fixable in three weeks as in effort.
1:03:58
Especially when you get down and you're on the road in a hostile
1:04:01
environment and you've got almost 100,000 people that are
1:04:04
against you. That's a lot harder to overcome
1:04:06
in three weeks. And I don't like what I saw
1:04:08
effort wise 3 weeks ago. I also think I thought Josh
1:04:11
Peyton made a good point about this of if I'm going to bet on
1:04:14
this, I'm going to have to count on 2 trends flipping in the same
1:04:17
area, which is the Boer's been off on the road and Kirby's been
1:04:20
unbeatable at home. I'm going to have to count on
1:04:23
both of those flipping for me to pick Alabama.
1:04:26
And I don't think Georgia's going to be awful at home even
1:04:29
if the Boer is way better on the road.
1:04:31
In which case, that's why it's a 2.
1:04:33
That's why it's a 2 1/2 point spread, right?
1:04:35
This is why it's Georgia kicks a field goal as time expires and
1:04:39
it's 3128. You know, Georgia wins.
1:04:42
You know, I could see this being a one point game.
1:04:44
I do think it's going to be close.
1:04:45
I don't see a blowout coming in this game.
1:04:48
I see being a lot lower scoring the Tennessee game.
1:04:51
This should be a really, really fun game to watch.
1:04:55
The stinks that you've got 2 huge games on at the same time.
1:04:57
Daniel, you know, if you've got YouTube TV, go ahead and do the
1:05:00
dual box at least and for these two games and hope that one of
1:05:03
them goes into a blowout so you can watch the other.
1:05:07
But really excited for this one. Daniel.
1:05:08
We I hope we go four and O cuz for the first time we've picked
1:05:11
all the same games this week. Yeah, that's that's I don't know
1:05:17
if it's a good omen, a bad omen. We're always off by at least one
1:05:19
game between each other. So let's both go four and O how
1:05:23
about that? Let's have a week that.
1:05:25
'D be great, that'd be great to do.
1:05:27
Be sure to follow us at the Extra Point pod on YouTube and
1:05:31
Instagram. We'll be back next week to recap
1:05:33
this great week of college football and and pick the next
1:05:36
week ahead. You can follow Daniel on
1:05:39
Twitter. That Deep South Daniel.
1:05:40
You can follow me on Twitter at Jacob Karns with a K that'll do
1:05:42
it for this edition of the extra point.
1:05:45
He is Daniel. I am Jacob.
1:05:47
See ya.