Latest / Neil McCoy-Ward Podcast / 🚨 BREAKING! Poland Activates Military & Urgently Summons Ministers (What’s Going On?!)

Transcript

🚨 BREAKING! Poland Activates Military & Urgently Summons Ministers (What’s Going On?!) · Neil McCoy-Ward Podcast

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, breaking news then, as Poland activates the military and urgently summons the ministers.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: So, we're going to get into all of this today,
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: and the first question is probably, what is going on?
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: And it's quite fascinating that all of this has taken place in the last 24 hours
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: because I was doing a big research piece on Poland anyway for you for Wednesday
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: or Thursday because a So, for context then...
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: I will show you what,
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: in fact, before we go on to all of that, let's give a little bit of background.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: So yesterday,
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: there was a drone attack on a train just a couple of miles away from
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: the Polish border.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: It was leaving Ukraine.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: And the first thing I kind of asked myself about that was,
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: What exactly was even happening there?
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: You may have had the same question.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: Why was Boris Johnson on a diplomatic mission to Ukraine on behalf of the UK?
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: He's nothing...
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: He's nothing to do with the UK anymore.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: Why was he on this train?
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: There were a lot of high-profile European former ministers,
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: senior people,
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: former Swedish Prime Minister as well was on there,
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: very high-level security officials.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: And it doesn't really, first of all, make much sense why they were on there.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: But anyway, let's put that to the side.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: There was a drone strike.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: And this is what has caused all of the panic and the chaos and all
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: of these emergency meetings right across the European Union today.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: And we only talked about this on Friday,
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: that there could be either A, an incident, a real incident of Russia...
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: doing some sort of a strike or be a false flag event where I don't like to say it,
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: but there's certain people,
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: and we know it's true,
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: there's certain leaders who are itching to get into this conflict.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: They're itching to do it because they know it's going to boost their GDP
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: and their popularity and they can't be voted out if there's water.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: There's all these things.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: It's very, very intricate when you get into the geopolitics of all of this.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: And by the way,
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: if you are new to the channel,
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: and there's about 5,000 subscribers in the last week or so,
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: This channel,
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: if you're looking for pro-Russian news or you're looking for pro-Ukraine news,
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: this isn't it.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: This is an unbiased look at both sides always.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: That is what I always try to do with the information I have.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: Much harder said than done because if you look at the Russian information,
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: it's propaganda towards Russia.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: You look at the European information, it's propaganda towards Europe.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: So you've always got to try and take a balance with this.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: But if you're not subscribed, just make sure you are subscribed to the channel.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: So then...
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: With a little bit of context there,
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: this was,
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: we're going to go on to a lot of news stories here,
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: but Poland prepares for real Russian invasion as Tusk urgently summons
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: the ministers.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: This is where this sort of started.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: And then it references, I don't speak Polish, so I've had to translate all of this.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: I have done that.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: I've translated it for you.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm going to read out this.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: What these stories actually talk about.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: So firstly,
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Poland has strengthened its security because it's expecting more provocations near
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: the border.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: So this was Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: He convened an emergency meeting with the government,
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: the military and the intelligence representatives today.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: This was following the strike near the Polish border.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, you look at the people that are on this meeting, it is absolutely huge.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: It was everyone you can think of within the government.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: Ministry of Interior, Ministry of National Defence, Country Security Services.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: And the kind of executive summary to do a big time saver here is...
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: He's now concerned that Russia is increasing its activity
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: and Poland must be prepared for a deterioration in the situation.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: He's expecting an incident to occur very shortly.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: He doesn't publicly say what that was, but obviously they discussed it in the room.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: But they are preparing and they have activated the military.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: They've spoken to their NATO counterparts about this.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: And it's, to me, kind of weird that...
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: All of those people were on the train.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: None of them seemed to be current in politics.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: It kind of tells you,
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: please leave a comment what you think there,
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: but it kind of tells you that there's definitely things going on.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: Why were they involved in this diplomatic mission when they have no right
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: to be doing a diplomatic mission?
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: What exactly was their angle?
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: What were they doing is the first question that I've got.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: So let me read out the translated news article here.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: So it was Donald Tusk warns of a Russian attack.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: He says we cannot rule it out.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: The coming weeks and months will be a period of very intense actions by Russia.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: We can't rule out this escalation is going to affect our territory.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: He said during this briefing,
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: he hopes, he said, I hope the worst case scenario will not come to pass.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: But he said that it actually may, especially with more specialized Russian equipment.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: He said the coming weeks will be a period of very intensified action.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously he's very concerned about everything here.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: And he said this is getting closer and closer to our border.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: It's only a matter of time until we have to engage.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: I wonder if he meant to use that word,
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: if it's been translated accurately, but the word engage is on here.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_00: So having to engage Russia, this would be interesting.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: And I was looking into a lot what this would mean in terms of Article 5,
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: because I wanted to read out,
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: as part of the research piece I was doing,
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: Around the Polish military and what their plan is.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I think there's two major, major flaws in this military strategy that I want to cover.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: One involves the border and one involves the United States.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I'm surprised that they didn't just do an AI search because I put in all
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: the details I wanted to get into my AI, and I wanted to wargame the scenario.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it went on for hundreds of pages of me back and forth today,
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: but it didn't come out the way it's showing on the media,
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: so I want to cover that as well.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: He said that the attacks that have just occurred show the Russians are prepared
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: to use more dangerous equipment than before.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: He's referring to these jet-powered drones.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: And he also said that Ukraine is just unable to shoot them down with 100% effectiveness.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: So he said that Poland, the citizens, need to be prepared.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: So that was the main thing from that story there.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know if you've actually seen this,
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: just to show you a couple of the,
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: as we go through here, show you a couple of the, this is just non-stop.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: So this was Iron Defender, the exercise that they're talking about.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: This is from the Ministry of Poland.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: They're preparing, they run all of these maneuvers.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: Poland broadens security strategy as Russian hybrid threats grow.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: This just came out as well.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: This was all about the strike next to the border.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: It goes on and on and on.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: The tank brigade, Germany's deployed soldiers to help them with the eastern border.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: If you're not aware,
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: these are called hedgehogs and they've deployed thousands of these and it's part
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: of their plan to stop the tanks.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: This is Germany as well, supports Poland with protecting NATO's eastern border.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: So this was a huge exercise.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: And this is German troops there now.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: Again, this isn't in the media.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: German army helps Poland protect itself against Russia.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: Again, wasn't heavily in the media.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I wanted to, actually, I don't want to ruin the surprise of this.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: We'll come to it after.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: And if you haven't downloaded my The guide, by the way, is completely free.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: It is a financial survival guide.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: It will help you with your finances.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: And this is how you get on my email newsletter as well.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: The guide is just a free kind of bonus.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: So it will help you with all of the things that are coming.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: If you're worried about your finances, that guide will help you.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: And the link for that is in the description.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: So let's get into then the sort of So Poland doesn't expect an imminent Russian invasion.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: That's one thing they've said.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: They're concerned about this multi-year threat window with these hybrid activities.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: This is drones,
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: sabotage,
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: and testing the Polish airspace,
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: which Tusk thinks is happening right now with these drones.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: Poland is actually NATO's top Spender by GDP shared.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: I think Germany's a little bit higher.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: But they're about almost 5% of GDP now.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: It's equivalent to 54 billion US dollars.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: But the one thing I will say,
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of this,
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: and it's an interesting strategy that I was looking into today,
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: the strategy isn't manpower, or women, but let's call it manpower.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: It isn't manpower.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: They're focused more on equipment and technology.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: Which may be the correct move, it may not.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: But I do find it interesting that they are reliant on the US for weapons and the US for backup.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get into that very shortly as well.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: So they're getting all these loans from the United States.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: This is foreign military financing.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: They just did another $4 billion loan in September on top of all this US credit.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: So they're heavily in debt to the United States right now with all of this equipment.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: And it reminds me of what took place during World War II,
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: where all of these European nations became heavily indebted to the USA,
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: sent all of their reserves gold.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_00: And that's how...
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: The US, if you know your history,
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: that's how the US got the incredible privilege of having
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: the reserve currency status,
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: which was a gold-backed currency, went all the way through to 1975.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: But all the way through to 1971, it was the Nixon shock, took the dollar off the gold.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: So it wasn't backed by gold anymore.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: But the US,
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: still today at least,
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think it will break down in the future,
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: but right now still has the reserve currency.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: So a lot of the countries in Europe are buying the weapons from the US.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: They just don't really advertise it because, well, there's a lot of friction there.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: So the focus in Poland is,
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: it's not a naval strategy, it's not, and you'll see why it's not a naval strategy.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: If you look at the map here, go to the shared screen again.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: You can see why it's not a heavily naval strategy here,
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: because what they're most concerned about is the border here with Belarus
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: and what's shared with Ukraine.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: So that's their main concern.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: It's not naval at this point.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: So they've currently got about 220,000 troops.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's among the biggest in NATO after the United States and Turkey.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: So they want to get to about half a million by 2039.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: And that'll be 300,000 professionals, 200,000 in reserve, so reservists, which is...
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting when you look at the UK strategy and they're defunding the reservists
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: and the territorial army at the moment,
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever,
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: but they want to build a territorial defence force.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: The thing I find really interesting about the Polish strategy is it's very different
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: to a lot of the other countries.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: They're not forcing through at the moment this compulsory conscription or ballots or
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: the German strategy of The questionnaires and the forms, etc.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: They're not actually doing that.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: Instead,
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: they're expanding voluntary courses with the military in order to build up a reserve
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: of people who are interested in the military.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: And they've also done the same as every other EU country.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: This is the readiness program.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's the civilian readiness program.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: So they are working on this.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: A recent report showed though only some eastern divisions were assessed
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_00: as being able to fight within a week.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: Others need a lot longer to re-equip and they're heavily reliant on the US
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_00: for this equipment and weapons but of course The US has its own challenges with Iran
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: and the proxies right now.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: And let's not even get in,
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: we haven't even got into yet what's happened with Saudi Arabia,
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: the Houthis, and taking the Bab al-Mandeb straight.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: And now you've got this choke point.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: The other choke point is in Kaliningrad,
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: which I think is going to cause a lot of challenges for NATO,
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: Romania, some of the Baltic states.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot going on, ladies and gents, you can probably tell.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'm trying to keep this simple because sometimes people say, Neil,
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: I watched your video over my head, so I'm trying to keep it as simple as possible.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: But it is quite complex when you're talking about all the different moving pieces here.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: So what is Poland focused on then?
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_00: And after we've gone through a lot of this,
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: we'll go on to the wargaming, which is not looking good, let me just say that.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_00: So...
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: They're basing this on a high-intensity land war on the eastern flank by
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: the year 2030 or sooner.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: That is what they have in black and white, 2030 or sooner.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we're about to come into 2027,
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: so it doesn't give a huge amount of time for what is happening here.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the key word is sooner.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: That wasn't Based on any sort of escalation, any drone incursions.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: The other thing they're buying is tanks,
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: this is heavily US Abrams,
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: also the South Korean K2 Black Panthers, another very good, good tanks.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: Of course the Abrams though,
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: rely on a more refined fuel,
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: so that will be challenging,
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: especially as Europe doesn't really have the sort of refinery capability at
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: the moment, and it's going to take years to set up, so Again, is this an oversight?
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: Are they expecting to get a resupply from the US?
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: But there's a lot of things here that being an ex-soldier I'm looking at
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: and saying some of these things don't make sense.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: They don't make sense to me.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: There must be things that I'm not aware of and they're not publicly saying.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: But buying all these Abrams and using highly refined fuels rather than diesel
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: Who knows what's going on there.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_00: Artillery and Rockets is another big one.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_00: Air Defense, again,
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_00: they're relying a lot on Patriots,
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: which will be a difficult one because we see what's happening at the US at
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: the moment.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: Aircraft and helicopters, F-16s already in service.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: F-35s are waiting them still.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: They said they're delayed.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: AH-64, these are your Apache attack helicopters.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: Drones, though, They say it's going to be their big strategy, drones and counter-drone warfare.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: They've seen the success of Ukraine, so that's what they want to focus on heavily.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: But if you look at a lot of what the EU nations are moving towards,
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_00: it is a land-based strategy with drones.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_00: Which I kind of find really interesting because this drone strategy is based
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_00: on defensive and attacking.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: So they want to rely on a lot of the UK tech as well and the French tech
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_00: for these long-range strike drones.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: But one thing that I saw last night which...
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_00: I think was interesting.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know who he was.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_00: I think he was the Polish defense minister.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_00: But he was very confidently on TV talking about if Russia engages us,
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: we're going to absolutely knock them out.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to take out.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_00: Ukraine's already took out half their refinery capability.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: Within a week, we'll knock out the other half and we'll do this and we'll do that.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: And I thought...
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I mean, fighting talk is good.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_00: You see it when you're watching a UFC or a boxing match, and it's interesting to the spectators.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: But you've got to be careful sometimes with this fighting talk,
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_00: is my experience in life, believe me.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_00: It took me a lot of years before I learned that the hard way.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: But I think that was another thing that surprised me, this sort of that antagonation last night.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: But Poland is relying on what they call the Eastern Shield, or the East Shield for short.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: And they're going to make the border very difficult for Russian tank brigades
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: and equipment to cross.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: But one thing I think, again, is a kind of flaw with that plan.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_00: It's a huge border.
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_00: You saw the image a moment ago on Google Maps there.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: This border is enormous.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: And Ukraine had the same sort of strategy.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_00: But what happens always in warfare is that a hole will be punched through that border.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_00: So building up this border and relying on the border to stop the advance,
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_00: I hope they've got another strategy apart from that because it doesn't sound like
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: the best idea to me.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: But backing that up is anti-tank ditches,
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: these hedgehogs that we mentioned,
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: mine and obstacle packages to stop the Russian tanks and vehicles.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: They say in black and white their plan is to just not let Russian troops get across the border.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: Look, they're going to get across the border, so that plan, you should plan to fail right away.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_00: They're going to use forests, wetlands, and rivers as natural barriers.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_00: Again, I think that's the same as what was supposed to happen during World War II.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_00: It didn't stop the German advance with their tank brigades,
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_00: if you, again, enjoy your military history, as I do.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: Sensors, comms, anti-drone coverage, warehouses...
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_00: And dumps so that obstacles can be thrown up quickly in a crisis.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_00: Weapons dumps as well.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: Again, we've seen what happened in both Russia and Ukraine
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: with these getting blown up very, very easily.
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_00: Another thing I thought was quite interesting,
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: right now the German military is moving hundreds of thousands of pieces of equipment
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_00: in these concrete blocks east, and they have been for a while now.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_00: And they said that the idea is,
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: because they war-gamed this,
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: you see,
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: there was a big war game,
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_00: and they found that if they could just hold off Russia for about a week,
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: they could get about 800,000, which...
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_00: Again, I don't agree with the summary of it,
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_00: but they said they can get 800,000 troops,
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: NATO troops, across and in position ready to have this war, basically.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: But what they're not saying is the other part of that report.
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_00: And it's interesting that they omit all of the key bits of data.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_00: And the key bit from that report was the bridges,
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_00: the ports, the ferrying equipment of the heavy equipment over rivers.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_00: The whole plan for the 800,000 troops,
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_00: when I was reading through it,
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: I remember,
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: so I cross-referenced it to that report,
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_00: and it said that they can't actually get them there.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_00: So this whole plan that they keep putting out
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: is based on a fallacy based on another report that says it can't be done.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_00: So again,
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's why we get the answers from AI regarding who would actually win
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_00: in these wars.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_00: I can't even believe I'm saying this.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a finance and economics guy.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_00: That's what I forecast and put all the pieces together.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_00: But Well, I guess this is now economics.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: It really is.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: The warfare and the financing behind it and the movement of the troops is economics in one form.
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_00: But let's get on to the NATO Article 5 then.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: They said that they're going to be putting key troops around sites
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_00: that have been part of hybrid responses.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: So there's already been attacks on all sorts of infrastructure in Poland.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: They don't know who did it, but they suspect it is proxies of Russia.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: But one thing is having this plan to defend the sites with people around them.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_00: Again, that doesn't make sense to me.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: And please let me know in the comments if you agree.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of these attacks,
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_00: if you look at all the attacks that have taken place,
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_00: I would say 70% to 80% of them have been cyber in nature.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: So you can have 1,000 people stood around the power plant.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_00: It's not going to make much difference if these cyber attacks come in.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: It won't just be Russia.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: It will be Iran and whoever else is doing it with them, North Korea.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: Poland's plan, again, I'm pulling this from the Polish government website, by the way.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_00: They're assuming NATO Article 5 will be triggered,
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_00: followed by a US deployment,
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: a US presence,
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_00: and US weapons, and also German, Baltics, and others throughout Western Europe.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_00: Now, another thing I looked into...
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: Was the US response.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: And it's difficult to actually get it in black and white,
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_00: but you can feed a lot of information,
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of reports into AI,
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of the interviews,
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of things that Trump said,
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_00: that Biden said beforehand,
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: what some of the generals have said, and it will give you a kind of good idea.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_00: So we've got a table here.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_00: And if Poland...
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: is attacked via Kaliningrad or Belarus,
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_00: the chance that the US would engage it says is low, low to almost zero.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_00: If Poland and Russia shoot after a border scrape and Poland is then seen
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_00: as escalating, the US involvement would again be low.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_00: Medium at the high end, but it's going to be low.
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_00: If Russia hits Poland in a sort of way that can be denied,
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_00: like a hybrid or a proxy, something like that, the highest level is medium.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_00: But again, it's probably going to be low.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: And in terms of those three, the US engaging with Russia, it's all zero to low.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's what everything points towards.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_00: The only thing that would actually bring the US in is if Russia does a full-scale,
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_00: I shouldn't use that term, but a full-scale invasion, as it were, of Poland, right?
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: And that is the only way that the model brought in The USA coming in.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_00: That was pretty much it.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_00: But it says then the US may not even do it because the stakes would be too high
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_00: with nuclear engagements.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_00: So it would be kind of risky.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_00: So this whole plan,
• 25:24
  SPEAKER_00: the whole premise of the plan is predicated on something
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_00: that most likely wouldn't happen,
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_00: which is that the US would come in and defend Russia.
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_00: Leave a comment as we go through.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_00: Large exercises then, this has been Iron Defender, the Suwalki Gap was another one.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_00: German's plan though,
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_00: this was a classified operational manual that was somehow leaked,
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_00: so if you're not aware of this, It's called the OP-PLAN DEU.
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_00: So you can look this up.
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's Germany's classified operational plan.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_00: And this was all around the 800,000 troops, 200,000 vehicles that was leaked.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_00: And the EU is furious about this,
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_00: that this whole plan was leaked because it told Russia everything.
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_00: It told them every possible thing that could occur immediately.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_00: So this has really set NATO back.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure Russia would have war-gamed it anyway and planned all this, but not positive.
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_00: So in terms of the Western war games then, okay, this is their version of it.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_00: They said...
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_00: It would be very messy.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_00: The best case scenario, let me really say the impact of this as well.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_00: This is shocking what you're about to hear.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_00: The best case scenario of a war between NATO and Russia,
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_00: best case, is a two-year industrial war after the first month of fighting.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_00: Two-year industrial war.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_00: That is the best case scenario.
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of people would die as well.
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_00: The medium case scenario is a simultaneous Arctic,
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_00: Baltic, Black Sea, Cyber and Space war that would also involve China.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: That would be a medium case.
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_00: The worst case scenario that they have plotted,
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: this is the West,
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_00: is a full scale nuclear war where both sides are basically wiped out.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_00: I can't believe what I'm even saying.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot more we could talk about here,
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_00: but I do want to go on to,
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_00: because this has been a very long stream actually,
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_00: I do want to go on to the last part, which is this.
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_00: Can NATO win a war without the US?
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_00: Answer with yes or no.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_00: Because we don't want all the nonsense it gives us.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_00: The answer is no.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_00: NATO, even though they say they can, Pretty much cannot win a war without the US.
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, so now tell me with yes or no, if the US were involved on NATO's side, the answer is yes.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: So I plugged into this all of the different war games.
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_00: There's, I think, 70 of them that I've plugged in here.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: It was a lot of work, yes.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_00: So with the United...
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_00: So, okay, now,
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_00: if NATO had the USA and Russia had China,
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_00: Iran plus the proxies, and North Korea on its side, yes or no?
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_00: It actually says no.
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_00: So if NATO, even with the USA, if the other axes got together, the answer would be no.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_00: And that is what I found really shocking.
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_00: After doing all of my research, I don't think there's anything else I could have plugged in.
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_00: I took every report from my database,
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_00: everything,
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_00: all the files,
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_00: all the exercise reports,
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_00: plugged it in, all the military numbers, everything, and it said no.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't know that, I'll be honest.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't know that that would be the outcome.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: I knew the other three, but that last one really surprised me.
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_00: So ladies and gents, thank you for watching today.
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_00: I hope you are a subscriber here to the channel.
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_00: I really appreciate you.
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_00: I hope that was eye-opening.
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_00: Download the guide, get on the email list for all of the news that I put out.
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_00: And apart from that, take care.
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_00: God bless.
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'll see you hopefully one more stream before I leave on my travels this week.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'll do my best.
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_00: Bye for now.