Deciding When Both Forecasts Can Be Wrong: Lessons from Tetlock’s Superforecasting.

Rene Grywnow’s 5-Minute Business Punch · Oct 18, 2026 · 5m

This week turned two numbers into facts, a flexible-megawatt promise and a declared peak. Both are forecasts of how a campus behaves under stress it hasn’t faced. Part III asks how to make that kind of forecast without fooling yourself, through Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s Superforecasting (Crown, 2015).

Tetlock’s finding across years of forecasting tournaments: the best forecasters aren’t smarter about the future, they’re more disciplined about two things. They assign probabilities instead of narratives, and they update in small steps as the world moves, separating what’s known from…