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Peter Hartcher on why the Iran conflict is spiralling out of control · The Morning Edition

0:03
S1: How can we make heads or tails of where the
0:06
S1: Iran war is headed and when it might end? When
0:09
S1: Donald Trump changes his strategy with whiplash speed, one minute
0:14
S1: the American president says he'll drop more bombs on Iran.
0:17
S1: Just for fun. The next, he decides to lift sanctions
0:21
S1: on Iranian oil and says that he's having productive negotiations
0:25
S1: with his enemy. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, and you're listening
0:30
S1: to The Morning Edition from the Age and The Sydney
0:33
S1: Morning Herald today, international and political editor Peter Hartcher on
0:38
S1: whether this war will lead us all into a recession.
0:41
S1: And what Trump said the other day that reveals how
0:44
S1: much political trouble he's now in. It's March the 26th.
0:52
S1: Welcome back, Peter.
0:53
S2: It's a pleasure to be here, Samantha.
0:55
S1: Okay. Can you just start off by, I guess, getting
0:57
S1: us up to speed with how? Out of control this
1:00
S1: war has become. Since Donald Trump said that he was
1:03
S1: confident of defeating the Islamic Republic in four days, according
1:08
S1: to a recent report.
1:09
S2: Yes, his four day outing, which he at one point
1:12
S2: called an excursion now into its fourth week, went from
1:17
S2: being what he thought would be an easy toppling of
1:21
S2: the regime and an easy conquering of Iran has now
1:25
S2: turned into, well, at the economic level, the greatest disruption
1:31
S2: of global oil supply that the world has seen, which
1:34
S2: is cascading through economies everywhere, pushing up prices and therefore inflation,
1:41
S2: but also leading to the concern that this burst of
1:46
S2: inflation could be followed by an economic downturn, perhaps a
1:50
S2: global recession. While in the meantime the Israelis have continued
1:55
S2: the assault, of course, on Iran, but equally because Hezbollah,
2:00
S2: the Iranian sponsored terrorist militia in southern Lebanon, had started
2:05
S2: firing missiles at Israel. So Israel took the opportunity to
2:10
S2: launch a major war against Hezbollah and is now in
2:14
S2: the process of clearing about a 30 kilometer wide buffer
2:17
S2: or deep buffer zone, into southern Lebanon. And almost a
2:21
S2: million people have been relocated to take them out of
2:25
S2: the out of the fire zone. And at the same time,
2:28
S2: the Iranians struck out in in what I've called a doomsday,
2:33
S2: retaliatory series of strikes where they've essentially just hit everything
2:38
S2: and anything that not only belongs to Israel or bases
2:43
S2: that belong and other assets belong to the US, but
2:47
S2: also at their Gulf Arab neighbors, damaging some Gulf Arab
2:52
S2: oil production in the process. And that's at the end
2:56
S2: of this conflict, the world will continue to feel the effects,
3:01
S2: largely based on whether more oil production infrastructure is destroyed
3:09
S2: both in Iran and in the Gulf states. And what
3:12
S2: happens to the control of the Strait of Hormuz? Donald
3:16
S2: Trump has made the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,
3:18
S2: which the Iranians have closed, to inflict maximum economic damage
3:21
S2: on the world as one of his primary goals. The
3:26
S2: Iranians say they're not going to relinquish that now. They're
3:28
S2: going to keep that as a permanent chokepoint and exercise
3:31
S2: control at their leisure. But we don't really know what
3:38
S2: Donald Trump's purpose is because it changes sometimes hourly. He
3:45
S2: started out by saying in January that he only wanted
3:47
S2: freedom for the Iranian people, and then he's escalated and
3:51
S2: de-escalated through all sorts of. There's a columnist at the
3:55
S2: Financial Times in London, Edward Lewis, who describes it as
3:59
S2: the Trump Armageddon taco or taco Shuffle, meaning he shuffles
4:04
S2: between threatening Armageddon to Taco, and Taco being the acronym
4:09
S2: for Trump Always Chickens Out, which was coined months ago
4:12
S2: by another Ft columnist, Robert Armstrong. So in between, for example,
4:18
S2: last week, on Friday US time, Trump said that he
4:22
S2: was going to give the Iranians 48 hours to totally
4:25
S2: open the Straits of Hormuz, or they would be devastated
4:28
S2: and he would wipe out obliterate all their power plants
4:31
S2: and they'd have zero electricity. The very next day, the
4:36
S2: very next day, Saturday US time. He then announced that
4:39
S2: they were having productive talks with the Iranians and gave
4:43
S2: them five days to reach a negotiated settlement. But of course,
4:47
S2: the Iranians claim that there were no talks and still
4:50
S2: remain no talks of substance between the two countries anyway.
4:54
S2: So what is his aim and purpose in the fourth
4:57
S2: week of the war? We still don't know. And he
5:00
S2: is still trying to find a mechanism for negotiating with
5:04
S2: the Iranians, and he's still trying to find more to
5:07
S2: the point, I suppose. For the global economy, he's still
5:11
S2: trying to find a way of dealing with the oil
5:14
S2: shipment problem, something which he obviously failed to plan for.
5:20
S2: And the final thing I'd add is that while on
5:22
S2: the one hand, we have this taco attempt by Trump
5:26
S2: at negotiating, we also have another Armageddon type scenario developing,
5:31
S2: which is we have now a group of a constellation
5:33
S2: of US forces heading towards the Middle East. We have
5:39
S2: a Marine expeditionary force of around 3000 US Marines being
5:43
S2: relocated from their base in Japan, as well as airborne
5:48
S2: paratroopers heading to the Middle East. The Pentagon says it's
5:52
S2: simply giving the commander in Chief options for possible future developments.
5:57
S2: But we don't know. I mean, does Trump know? Lord knows.
6:01
S2: But it does create the potential that Trump could deploy
6:06
S2: those troops, most of which should be in place by
6:08
S2: the end of this week to try to remove some
6:11
S2: of the Iranian armaments, which allow them to control access
6:16
S2: to the Strait of Hormuz, or perhaps to conduct other
6:19
S2: operations against the Iranians, none of which we are yet
6:24
S2: advised of.
6:25
S1: Wow. And so are you watching all of this and
6:28
S1: feeling as I have been, which is that this is
6:30
S1: either a already spun out of control or B is
6:32
S1: in danger of spinning out of control because we know
6:35
S1: just with regards to the escalations of what's happening in
6:38
S1: Iran hitting the Gulf states nearby, that, for instance, a
6:42
S1: Qatari facility and energy facility was hit recently. And they've said, well,
6:46
S1: this is going to take 3 to 5 years to fix,
6:48
S1: you know. So is this already sort of spinning out
6:51
S1: of control. And I guess from the geopolitical perspective, but
6:54
S1: also just from the financial perspective, I know that I
6:57
S1: saw that there was this expert, Jason Bordoff, and he
7:00
S1: told the New York Times the other day, he's the
7:02
S1: founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at
7:04
S1: Columbia University. And he said, if this goes on, we
7:08
S1: haven't seen anything yet in terms of how high energy
7:11
S1: prices are going to go. Even if this war goes
7:13
S1: for a few weeks longer. So are we just sort
7:17
S1: of at a tipping point of things getting really bad
7:19
S1: both geopolitically and financially?
7:22
S2: It's already way out of control in the conception of
7:26
S2: of Donald Trump, as we said. Thought it would be
7:28
S2: a four day bit of recreational fun for him. He
7:32
S2: has told us that he didn't expect that the Gulf
7:35
S2: states would be attacked in such a wanton way by
7:38
S2: the Iranians. Thousands of missiles and drones launched at all
7:42
S2: the major Gulf states, with the UAE bearing the major brunt.
7:46
S2: He certainly didn't expect a global oil crisis, which he,
7:51
S2: together with the Iranians, of course, and the Israelis between them,
7:54
S2: have successfully engineered. That was not part of the plan,
7:58
S2: I'm sure. And this probably helps explain why Trump, between
8:02
S2: Friday last week and Saturday, completely reversed his course to escalate.
8:07
S2: And suddenly he's negotiating because it was on Friday that
8:12
S2: the US markets, not just the oil price rising, but
8:16
S2: the share market took a tumble, taking the cumulative US
8:19
S2: share market losses to over 5% since the war began.
8:24
S2: And that seems to be a sensitive point for Trump.
8:27
S2: The 5% loss mark also triggered his withdrawal, or at
8:32
S2: least his his partial mitigation amelioration of his so-called Liberation
8:37
S2: Day tariffs last year. So it seems that that unplanned consequence,
8:45
S2: unintended consequence was persuasive in moving him to de-escalate, as
8:52
S2: well as the fact, of course, that a lot of
8:53
S2: American drivers will be very unhappy at paying higher gasoline prices.
8:58
S1: For sure. And really, this brings us to your latest piece,
9:01
S1: because you have just written that, you know, finally, we
9:04
S1: know that Trump doesn't he simply doesn't know what he's doing.
9:08
S1: And I've got to start with one sentence that you
9:10
S1: wrote that I must say, sort of made me chuckle,
9:12
S1: though this is obviously far from a laughing matter. You
9:14
S1: said Trump said he'd been surprised to learn how big
9:17
S1: Iran's navy was. Seriously. Unquote. Now you very you very
9:22
S1: rarely use sarcasm, Archer. So can I read from this
9:26
S1: that you are genuinely surprised by the level of ignorance
9:30
S1: on behalf of Donald Trump with regards to this war?
9:34
S2: Well, it was either evidence that he really hadn't done
9:37
S2: even the most basic homework in assessing his enemy before
9:42
S2: launching into this war, or that he was feigning indifference
9:46
S2: as if he didn't really care either way. It's the
9:50
S2: height of irresponsibility to launch into a major globe altering
9:55
S2: war without either doing the homework or having concern for
10:00
S2: the consequences.
10:03
S1: After the break.
10:04
S2: Well, this is a redefinition of the term regime change,
10:07
S2: of course. If it weren't so serious, it would be
10:10
S2: absolutely hilarious as maybe as a TV spoof, a satire
10:14
S2: on ignorance and willful negligence in the upper echelons of
10:19
S2: global power.
10:29
S1: And so walk me through the other evidence as you
10:31
S1: see it, that the most powerful leader of the free
10:34
S1: world just simply does not know what he's doing in
10:36
S1: prosecuting a war against Iran, which, of course, we know
10:39
S1: many of its predecessors wanted to do and didn't do
10:42
S1: because of what they deemed as just risks that were
10:45
S1: way too high.
10:48
S2: Well, I might pick you up on leader of the
10:50
S2: free world. The free world, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit,
10:54
S2: no longer includes the US. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit,
10:59
S2: there are only 25 full democracies left on earth, and
11:02
S2: the US is not one of them. In fact, none
11:05
S2: of the international democracy indexes rate the US as being
11:09
S2: a full democracy any longer. A combination of Donald Trump's
11:14
S2: denial of an election loss, his assault on the court system,
11:20
S2: his assault on civil liberties, the Ice raids Trump sponsored,
11:24
S2: and a whole panoply his assaults on the media in
11:27
S2: the US. So whether he's the leader of the free
11:30
S2: world is now, I would suggest.
11:33
S1: In contention a fair point. So very powerful. Not necessarily, um,
11:39
S1: upholding democracy as we know it.
11:42
S2: Yes. So, uh, that's, that's right. And that again will
11:45
S2: be tested when Trump's term expires, his commitment to democracy.
11:49
S2: And we know from his own mouth that he prefers
11:51
S2: doing business with autocrats and dictators and tyrants than to Democrats.
11:56
S2: And he's shown contempt for Democratic allies, as we know
12:00
S2: we have from a Brookings Institution fellow in the US,
12:04
S2: a Turkish expert, that Trump had told the Turkish government
12:09
S2: of Erdogan that they should relax, they shouldn't be anxious
12:13
S2: because the war would be over in four days. So
12:16
S2: that seems to be the the mother of all miscalculation
12:19
S2: in this war. That then led to other failures, for example,
12:25
S2: the failure to plan for the oil supply. There was
12:29
S2: no plan. And as as we say, you know, in
12:32
S2: the fourth week of the war, he is still groping
12:35
S2: around trying to find a way to cope with the
12:37
S2: disruption to oil. He hasn't got one. And he should
12:39
S2: have thought of that.
12:40
S1: And and we know from assessments from previous people who
12:44
S1: have worked in the defense community and in previous American
12:47
S1: administrations that this had been war planned to the hilt. Right?
12:51
S1: Like they'd all taken it as a given that this
12:53
S1: is what Iran will do. It'll close the straits. And
12:56
S1: that's why they didn't do this.
12:58
S2: Yes. And Trump, even if he didn't know that, even
13:01
S2: if he didn't bother to inform himself of previous planning
13:04
S2: and wargaming. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs came to him.
13:08
S2: We know from reporting in the Wall Street Journal and said, Mr. President,
13:12
S2: the Iranians could close the Strait of Hormuz. We should
13:15
S2: plan for that. And he dismissed it and said the
13:17
S2: war will be over so quickly that they won't have time.
13:20
S2: We also know that his expectation, his or at least
13:23
S2: his stated expectation that the regime could fall and he
13:27
S2: wants regime change in Tehran directly contradicted the advice he
13:32
S2: got from the US intelligence community. We know from reporting
13:35
S2: by The Washington Post that the National Intelligence Council, the
13:41
S2: peak analytical and advisory body in the American system, had
13:45
S2: told Trump that there was little chance that an aerial
13:49
S2: bombardment of any intensity, even a great intensity, would result
13:55
S2: in the regime falling. So he'd been advised that he
13:58
S2: should have anticipated the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
14:01
S2: He'd been advised that it was unlikely that the regime
14:05
S2: would fall. And yet he waded into this war regardless,
14:10
S2: shocked that the Iranians would close the strait. Shocked that
14:14
S2: the apparently shocked that the Iranians were launching war, which
14:20
S2: continues to this day against Gulf states as well as
14:24
S2: Israel and US bases. And so now overnight, I heard
14:29
S2: him saying that there was regime change because I changed
14:33
S2: the regime. Well, this is a redefinition of the term
14:37
S2: regime change. Of course, regime change means one regime is
14:41
S2: removed and another takes power. This just I mean, really,
14:47
S2: if it weren't so serious, it would be absolutely hilarious
14:50
S2: as maybe as a TV spoof, a satire on ignorance
14:54
S2: and willful negligence in the upper echelons of global power.
14:59
S1: Yeah, I mean, it certainly makes my mind boggle. Which
15:02
S1: brings me to my next question, because you make the
15:04
S1: point in your piece, great powers are prone to great delusions.
15:07
S1: So I really wanted to ask your opinion because you've
15:09
S1: been covering geopolitical struggles and megalomaniacs, it has to be
15:14
S1: said for decades. So where does Trump sit, do you think,
15:17
S1: in comparison with other delusional leaders? You know, does he
15:20
S1: set a new benchmark or is he, you know, perhaps
15:23
S1: par for the course?
15:26
S2: Well, as you say, I mean, I did I did
15:28
S2: write that, that, um, the great powers are prone to
15:32
S2: great delusions. I also called it the Icarus syndrome. Flying
15:38
S2: too close to the sun, overestimating your own abilities and
15:41
S2: greatness and seems to affect their brains. All that heat
15:46
S2: from flying so high. The other recent example ongoing example
15:51
S2: we have is Vladimir Putin, who thought that his war
15:54
S2: against Ukraine would be over in three days, and the
15:58
S2: Pentagon agreed with that assessment. And we're now into the
16:01
S2: fifth year of that war. Senior officers in the Russian
16:05
S2: military were packing their dress, uniforms and medals for the
16:09
S2: victory parade through Kyiv that they were expecting to occur
16:13
S2: within a week. So that's another example of a leader
16:17
S2: who overestimates his own power and greatness, underestimates the enemy,
16:23
S2: partly because of their worldview that they're so exceptional and
16:27
S2: so powerful. I'm sure there are many more through history.
16:31
S2: I mean, famously, the general expectation in World War One
16:35
S2: would be that it would be over by Christmas, unquote.
16:38
S2: And of course, it stretched on for four years and became.
16:41
S2: To that point, the most devastating event in human history.
16:45
S1: Okay, so there you have it. We know that powerful
16:48
S1: leaders have made epic mistakes that have had horrible consequences
16:51
S1: for countless humans in the past. But I just want
16:55
S1: to wrap up by asking you, Peter, whether you think
16:57
S1: where America is at with this war and the consequences.
17:00
S1: I mean, obviously the financial consequences to America are just
17:03
S1: being seen. But we know that this war is not
17:05
S1: popular in the United States. Do you think that this
17:08
S1: is holding a mirror up to Americans in terms of
17:10
S1: who they voted in? Because you make the point in
17:13
S1: your piece. Donald Trump just does what he wants. And
17:17
S1: it kind of comes with a history, right? You make
17:19
S1: the point in your piece that he once said, well,
17:21
S1: he can do whatever he wants to women and get
17:23
S1: away with it. And he basically has. And of course,
17:26
S1: now he's doing this and it seems to be with
17:28
S1: the same sort of cavalier, merciless sort of perspective. Do
17:33
S1: you think Americans are looking at this and it's giving
17:36
S1: them something of a shock or not.
17:40
S2: We know that the war itself is unpopular, according to
17:43
S2: American opinion polling. We know that the increasing pain at
17:48
S2: the petrol bowser is the main point of of pain
17:53
S2: in the US. But we also have yet to see
17:56
S2: any real collapse in his overall approval rating. And Republicans,
18:01
S2: broadly speaking, continue to support the war. So it may
18:06
S2: yet cause a reassessment of Trump by the remaining roughly 40%
18:12
S2: of Americans who approve of the job he's doing. Maybe not.
18:15
S2: It may simply be that they have so invested themselves
18:20
S2: and their expectations, futures and personas in Donald Trump that
18:24
S2: that is unshakeable. I don't know, but Trump certainly knows
18:30
S2: that this is a political problem for him. And that
18:34
S2: manifested most clearly, I thought, what, 24 hours ago or so,
18:39
S2: when he was sharing a platform with his so-called secretary
18:42
S2: of war, Pete Hegseth. And Trump, in the course of
18:45
S2: talking to the audience about the war, turned to Hegseth
18:48
S2: and said, I think you were the one who first said,
18:51
S2: let's go get Iran. That pass, hospital pass to Pete
18:56
S2: Hegseth by Trump, I think, told us a great deal
18:59
S2: about how he understands the political appeal of this rather random,
19:05
S2: still unexplained and disastrous misadventure.
19:10
S1: Absolutely, Peter. Well, thanks again, as always, for your time.
19:14
S2: Thanks a lot, Samantha.
19:25
S1: In other news today, renowned Australian designer Leigh Matthews has
19:28
S1: faced a public examination in the federal court over the
19:32
S1: liquidation of her fashion company and restructuring of her businesses,
19:36
S1: which denied a London based creditor more than $2.7 million.
19:42
S1: And after the tragic death of Married at First Sight
19:44
S1: relationship expert Mel Schilling on Tuesday, Associate Professor Graham Newstead,
19:49
S1: medical director at Bowel Cancer Australia, told our mastheads that
19:53
S1: though people in their 30s and 40s don't think about
19:56
S1: bowel cancer, bowel cancers in people under 50 have been increasing.
20:01
S1: You can read more at the Akamai or smh.com.au. Today's
20:09
S1: episode was produced by Kai Wong. Our executive producer is
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