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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: Ever see the talk station twenty nine.
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  Speaker 2: If you've have Krosit talk station, Happy Tuesday extra special
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  Speaker 2: every Tuesday at this time because we get to hear
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  Speaker 2: from retire Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis what we call the
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  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis Deep Dive, actually what Daniel Davis calls it.
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  Speaker 2: Find his podcast wherever we get your podcasts. We usually
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  Speaker 2: talk about war. Daniel Davis, Welcome back, my friend. I
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  Speaker 2: always love having you on the show and getting your analysis.
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  Speaker 1: Always a pleasure to be here, Brian, Thanks for having
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  Speaker 1: me again.
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  Speaker 2: Someday there will be no global conflict and you and
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  Speaker 2: I will have nothing to talk about maybe until that day.
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  Speaker 2: Let's talk first, and I want to pivot over just
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  Speaker 2: for a moment, and I don't want to certainly don't
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  Speaker 2: want to catch you off guard, but I presume you're
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  Speaker 2: also paying attention. What the hell's going on with the
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  Speaker 2: Chinese military Jijinping firing all these top generals. Is there
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  Speaker 2: something we should read into this or does this represent
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  Speaker 2: sort of any concern in your eyes?
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  Speaker 3: Daniel Davis, Well, it's gotten a lot of press lately
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  Speaker 3: just because it was the number one god that was
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  Speaker 3: taken out and somebody who was really close to Sheshi Ping,
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  Speaker 3: but this is the fiftieth general that he's taken out
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  Speaker 3: in number. I think it's four or five years over
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  Speaker 3: the past, and he you could take it that it's
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  Speaker 3: actually at face value, which is the Chinese are just
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  Speaker 3: deadly serious about corruption and nobody is above the law.
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  Speaker 3: Nobody is above the standards, not even a guy that
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  Speaker 3: was close ties to Sheishin Pin. It's also possible that
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  Speaker 3: it's just him trying to call out some of the
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  Speaker 3: older guys, because this guy had physical combat experience during
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  Speaker 3: the Civil War going back to the nineteen forty nine period,
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  Speaker 3: and he's just like looking to get some newer blood
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  Speaker 3: in there, and that could have been the reason too,
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  Speaker 3: or even a combination of them. But I don't see
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  Speaker 3: anything because I've heard a lot of people say, well,
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  Speaker 3: maybe this is about there was a creeping coup that
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  Speaker 3: was coming in, or he's Eshi Ping is not clear
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  Speaker 3: you know who he can be loyal to. I doubt
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  Speaker 3: that there's any chance of loyalty problems with somebody that's
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  Speaker 3: been with him that long, because there's no real reason
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  Speaker 3: for it to be just logically speaking. So I rather
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  Speaker 3: think it's that he's looking to even strengthen his national
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  Speaker 3: defense security. Uh, but you know with Chinese you can
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  Speaker 3: you're just left to read the tea leaves, so to speak,
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  Speaker 3: because it's very, very close society. So that's that's the
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  Speaker 3: best I can come up with, because I don't see
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  Speaker 3: any other incidental information that would or evidence that would
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  Speaker 3: make me think that there.
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  Speaker 1: Was something about regime stability that was at stake.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, And clearly that's the direction I was going, because
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  Speaker 2: you know, it is such a closed society. We figure
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  Speaker 2: they you know that he more than anybody would know
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  Speaker 2: everything that's going on around him, to the extent he
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  Speaker 2: was he sensed a coup, that would be a logical
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  Speaker 2: reaction to it. But you're suggesting right now that does
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  Speaker 2: not appear to be the case.
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  Speaker 3: Fair And there was lots of rumors also that that
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  Speaker 3: this guy had been selling nuclear secrets to the United States,
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  Speaker 3: and that just doesn't pass the common sense test to me.
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  Speaker 1: Why would a guy that's.
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  Speaker 3: Been that long in his position, what would he possibly
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  Speaker 3: benefit from selling secrets to the United States at the
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  Speaker 3: risk of being executed if he got caught, So that
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  Speaker 3: I'm not buying that one, But that is one of
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  Speaker 3: the things that's out there.
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  Speaker 1: That fair enough.
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  Speaker 2: Let's pivot over to how about the latest in Russia
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  Speaker 2: and Ukraine. It sounds to me like they're endeavoring to
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  Speaker 2: re engage with settlement talks. The same story we hear
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  Speaker 2: almost every week. But I did notice believes Zelenski was
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  Speaker 2: the one that was calling for at least a ceasefire
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  Speaker 2: insofar as bombing electricity generation plans. People in Ukraine are suffering.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, how do you deal with winter time in
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine when you don't have energy. I guess half the
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  Speaker 2: people in the capitol have already fled, five hundred thousand
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  Speaker 2: people or so. But you know, I'm sorry, but isn't
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  Speaker 2: it a major component of warfare that you go after
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  Speaker 2: electricity because that helps you win the war. I can't
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  Speaker 2: imagine Russian buying into that. But more broadly speaking, do
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  Speaker 2: you see any possible settlement here? And it is going
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  Speaker 2: to require Zelenski to give up land.
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  Speaker 3: It is getting more and more dicey for the Ukraine side.
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  Speaker 3: There are meeting scheduled tomorrow in Abu Dhabi between United States,
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  Speaker 3: Ukraine and Russia to try and come up to a settlement.
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  Speaker 3: The Russians have made very clear that this is not
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  Speaker 3: a negotiation session. This is the Russian saying reiterating, this
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  Speaker 3: is our requirement. It's the same things from June twenty
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  Speaker 3: twenty four.
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  Speaker 1: They haven't changed. They haven't changed since Anchorage.
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  Speaker 3: Alaska, which is the territorial submission of the four regions.
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  Speaker 3: It's demilitarization denotification according to their terminology, or we'll just
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  Speaker 3: keep fighting and you talk about the population.
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  Speaker 1: I just spoke with somebody.
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  Speaker 3: Who has some experience in the region here just very recently,
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  Speaker 3: and they said that of the six major cities inside
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  Speaker 3: of Ukraine, only one of them, Leviv, is basically livable.
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  Speaker 3: All the electric generation has been knocked out to such
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  Speaker 3: a degree that in the capital only four hours per
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  Speaker 3: day have electricity. Many areas have no heat at all,
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  Speaker 3: not any hours per the day. As you said, half
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  Speaker 3: a million people have left the city already. Overnight there
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  Speaker 3: was yet another one. Almost five hundred aerial vehicles were fired.
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  Speaker 3: This one hit Kiev, the Denepro, especially in the south.
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  Speaker 3: It was a massive shot, knocked out eighteen Iskandor missiles,
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  Speaker 3: which is a huge expense, which shows Russia is really
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  Speaker 3: deadly serious about knocking out the electric generation, which prevents
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  Speaker 3: Ukraine from having creating jobs, creating war material, and of
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  Speaker 3: course just keeping the population fed.
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  Speaker 1: And there is serious problems going on now throughout the country.
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  Speaker 3: Used to just be people up close to the front
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  Speaker 3: had to worry about it in Kievan that some of
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  Speaker 3: these other ones were kind of oscillated. But those days
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  Speaker 3: are over, and I think that's part of Russia's plan.
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  Speaker 2: Part of Russia's plan, I guess, winning the conflict, Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 2: And we're stating the obvious. If you know, if we
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  Speaker 2: were all rooting for Russia, we would all be going, Yay,
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  Speaker 2: they're winning the war. These are these are inroads and
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  Speaker 2: they're fight against Ukraine. I mean, it's clear. This is
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  Speaker 2: something you've been saying for the last several years on
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  Speaker 2: this program, Daniel Davis. You know, Russia has.
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  Speaker 3: A big and it's it's it's it's anguishing to watch
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  Speaker 3: this unfold because there is no even theoretical path for
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  Speaker 3: Ukraine to stop what Russia's doing and reverse it to
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  Speaker 3: such that you could say, well, if you just keep
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  Speaker 3: holding out a little longer, things gonna go.
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  Speaker 1: There are no such factors. And yet I.
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  Speaker 3: Heard as recently as just two days ago. European leaders
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  Speaker 3: are still talking about they're going to force kaya kallis
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  Speaker 3: no kidding, We're going to force Russia into capitulation, into
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  Speaker 3: submission so that we'll get the negotiated.
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  Speaker 1: Terms that we want.
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  Speaker 3: Meanwhile, cities are going without heat, people are dying every day,
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  Speaker 3: and the Russians keep moving to the west.
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  Speaker 1: It is just anguishing to watch.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I'm sure Vladimir Putin and other Russians are as
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  Speaker 2: puzzled as i am. How do they hope to accomplish
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  Speaker 2: that goal if they haven't been able to do it
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  Speaker 2: for the last several years since Russia invaded? What's changed now?
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  Speaker 2: They're going to cause Vladimir Putting to capitulate on anything.
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  Speaker 3: Daniel, right, And you know the only thing that has
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  Speaker 3: changed is that now then the number of a Wall
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  Speaker 3: troops from Ukraine continues to grow. It's now some more
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  Speaker 3: two hundred thousand a wall. There are legal actions against
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  Speaker 3: two million Ukrainian men for refusing to show up and
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  Speaker 3: for running and trying to flee two million. And so
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  Speaker 3: what that tells you is on top of the daily casualties,
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  Speaker 3: it's being inflicted across the front. They don't have anywhere
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  Speaker 3: near enough to even replace losses, and then what they
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  Speaker 3: do get is just paltry capabilities because they don't have
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  Speaker 3: time to train them. And you're talking about it's just
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  Speaker 3: a slower death, and that slowness is actually starting to accelerate.
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  Speaker 2: Well, reminded the comments of Mark Ruby insofar as NATO,
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  Speaker 2: I mean, NATO needs to step up to the flate
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  Speaker 2: to start being able to defend themselves. And I suppose
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  Speaker 2: if NATO was as strong as for example, see the
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  Speaker 2: United States collectively or whatever, if they had militaries, if
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  Speaker 2: they had military hardware, they might have stepped up and
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  Speaker 2: have provided a defense. Meanwhile, they just keep talking about
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  Speaker 2: doing it, looking into the United States to provide all
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  Speaker 2: the weaponry. Sorry, we don't have have it either. That's
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  Speaker 2: one of the reasons why we need you to step
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  Speaker 2: up and rebuild your militaries.
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  Speaker 1: And listen, it's gonna take decades.
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  Speaker 3: I mean at least a decade of sustained investment, because
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  Speaker 3: I mean, throughout the course of this war, it's just
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  Speaker 3: been self evident that across the West, not just NATO
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  Speaker 3: but also the United States, we have matched out all
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  Speaker 3: we can give. President Trump talks a lot about we're
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  Speaker 3: selling weapons to NATO, through NATO to Ukraine. But the
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  Speaker 3: fact is, we don't have that much more to give,
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  Speaker 3: and that's one of the reasons why they're continuing to
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  Speaker 3: lose across the border in the front because they don't
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  Speaker 3: have the number of missiles, they don't have the number
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  Speaker 3: of drones, they don't have the number of armored vehicles, etc.
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  Speaker 3: They don't have any of the things that you need
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  Speaker 3: just to sustain daily operations, and we don't have it
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  Speaker 3: to give or sell. And that's another one of the
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  Speaker 3: reasons why I say, seriously, what the hell is wrong
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  Speaker 3: with the senior leaders in the West, especially in Europe
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  Speaker 3: that can't just come to obvious, common sense logic and say, hey,
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  Speaker 3: we wanted this to go happen this, we wanted Rushia
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  Speaker 3: to lose.
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  Speaker 1: It didn't work out. Let's just you know, cap this
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  Speaker 1: thing off.
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  Speaker 3: Before it gets even worse, and it can get worse,
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  Speaker 3: but instead we keep going down a path of blind
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  Speaker 3: ignoring the reality.
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  Speaker 2: Well, and learn a lesson. You can't help because you
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  Speaker 2: can't help, I mean, you don't have the resources, So
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  Speaker 2: fix the problem that prevents you from helping. Briefly, it
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  Speaker 2: looks like the US and run maybe meeting for talks
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  Speaker 2: in Turkey. We got a whole carrier group over there.
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  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis, how close are we to war with Iran?
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  Speaker 2: I know you say it's a terrible idea to go
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  Speaker 2: down that road, and I agree with you. But where
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  Speaker 2: are we in the talks? You think they're gonna bear free?
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  Speaker 1: You know, there is a really strange dynamic going on.
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  Speaker 3: Whereas yesterday in the Oval Office, when the press gaggle
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  Speaker 3: was in there, President Trump was asked, you know, where
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  Speaker 3: are we on this? And he says, well, you know,
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  Speaker 3: we have this flotilla there, but we're talking with Iran
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  Speaker 3: and maybe we can come up with a deal.
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  Speaker 1: I hope, So I'd prefer it to work out that
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  Speaker 1: wey et cetera.
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  Speaker 3: Meanwhile, over on Fox News, right about the same time,
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  Speaker 3: or maybe just a little afterward, you had Kudlow and
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  Speaker 3: Jack Keene who were on The Kudlow Show lamenting about
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  Speaker 3: the possibility of a negotiated settlement. They were begging President Trump,
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  Speaker 3: don't have a negotiated settlement.
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  Speaker 1: We can only destroy the regime. That's all we can have.
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  Speaker 3: Lindsay Graham literally threw down a gauntlet to Trump on
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  Speaker 3: Sunday on Fox News Sunday and said, you can either
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  Speaker 3: be Reagan or you can be Obama. You know, like
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  Speaker 3: the worst pejorative he can toss out there. So you
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  Speaker 3: got these guys that are I mean lobby and hard
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  Speaker 3: in public and you know in private for Trump to
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  Speaker 3: not have negotiations but to destroy the regime. But we
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  Speaker 3: can go down that path here. But that's just really
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  Speaker 3: odd that the president is talking about negotiations and you
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  Speaker 3: have his best allies arguing against it.
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  Speaker 2: Well, pursuing to what authority with Donald Trump be able
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  Speaker 2: to unilaterally enter into a theater of combat and war
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  Speaker 2: with a country against whom we have no declaration of war?
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, There's none.
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  Speaker 3: And it's just as black and white as it sounds
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  Speaker 3: coming out of your mouth.
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  Speaker 1: There is none. And these people that I just mentioned.
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  Speaker 3: There, then grahams et cetera, they don't care about that.
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  Speaker 3: No one cares about it anymore. We have now set
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  Speaker 3: a standard that the Constitution Articles one and two no
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  Speaker 3: longer apply. The nineteen seventy three War Powers Act no
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  Speaker 3: longer applies. There are no limits on President Trump. He
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  Speaker 3: can literally do whatever he wants here, and I mean
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  Speaker 3: Republican Democrats nobody's going to stand up and stop him,
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  Speaker 3: and that's a dangerous thing for our republic.
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  Speaker 1: I'll just tell you about that.
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  Speaker 2: I agree completely. So it's you, it's me, it's Judge
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  Speaker 2: Nita Paula Tino, Congressman Thomas Massey, and Senator Rand Paul.
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  Speaker 2: I think that's all of us. Daniel. Put us in
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  Speaker 2: a room together. We can all talk about the Constitution
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  Speaker 2: and what it allows. Hey, it doesn't allow for Daniel
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  Speaker 2: Davis Deep Die Final wherever we get your podcast, tune
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  Speaker 2: in every Tuesday at eight thirty to hear his insights.
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  Speaker 2: I always always enjoy our conversations, Daniel. Until next week.
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  Speaker 2: Have a great week, my friend, my friend, it's a
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  Speaker 2: forty right now. If you have k see any talk
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  Speaker 2: stations stick around. John Roman from