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Making the Upside Case for My Most Hated Players · BDGE Fantasy Football

0:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Someone asked me on stream the other night while I was doing some mock drafts, uh, what fantasy podcasts I listened to.
0:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And I responded that I don't really listen to many fantasy podcasts, not because, uh, I think there are a lack of quality of fantasy podcasts, but I like to listen to real football podcasts in terms of guys that are at training camps, beat reporters that are watching what's happening to actual football players and seeing the scheme open up in real time and coaches in what they're doing in training camp and the preseason games.
0:26
[SPEAKER_00]: The other big problem I have with fantasy podcasts, including myself, is that we can skew and manipulate the numbers in whatever fashion we want to, so we can make the argument for or against any player that we choose to.
0:36
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's exactly what I'm going to be doing today.
0:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to be making a positive case for players that are much lower on than consensus ADP in our draft guide right now, which you can go get at bg.co.
0:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're gonna talk through a handful of the more popular players.
0:49
[SPEAKER_00]: My original takes on them and why I might be wrong on them.
0:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's start with George Kittle.
0:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I have them outside the top 12 tight ends right now.
0:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And he sort of boards to the tight end nine.
0:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And my entire argument against him in my entire POV on...
1:02
[SPEAKER_00]: George Kiddleston simply the fact that he's 33 years old and he's coming off of a torn Achilles.
1:06
[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of the profile that I want to stay away from, not only is he coming off of a torn Achilles, but the torn Achilles happened in January and he didn't have surgery until mid-January.
1:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So we were talking about one of the more unprecedented timeline returns for someone of his age.
1:19
[SPEAKER_00]: However, George Kiddleston has been defying the odds his entire life.
1:23
[SPEAKER_00]: He has now been taken off the populist.
1:24
[SPEAKER_00]: He has returned to individual drills.
1:26
[SPEAKER_00]: The reports all summer have been glaring about George Kittles' return.
1:30
[SPEAKER_00]: There's also been the case made that his Achilles' tear was one of the more positive ones in the sense that it was higher up on his leg, whereas a lower down Achilles' tear could mean a more difficult recovery.
1:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So for what that's worth, I'm only technically a doctor.
1:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just telling you what I've heard.
1:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Where is Achilles' tear actually occurred on his leg seemed to be more positive?
1:46
[SPEAKER_00]: And even with that, the upside case for Kiddled does not need to see him playing in week one.
1:52
[SPEAKER_00]: He does not have to be on the field right away, does not have to play in that Australian game.
1:56
[SPEAKER_00]: When you look at the season long outlook for San Francisco, there are so few proven passing game weapons right now for them.
2:03
[SPEAKER_00]: They had to bring back Debo, who's obviously passed his prime.
2:06
[SPEAKER_00]: We have Ricky Pierce all is out for the year.
2:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Joanne Jennings is no longer there.
2:10
[SPEAKER_00]: They have Rick, they have the rookie to John Sterling who it looks like they're going to have to rely very heavily on.
2:14
[SPEAKER_00]: We got the quad god Mike Evans who cannot get back to practice.
2:16
[SPEAKER_00]: He keeps re aggravating his injury supposedly supposed to be unserious right now.
2:21
[SPEAKER_00]: But who knows?
2:22
[SPEAKER_00]: We just have no weapons that can stay healthy.
2:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is always going to be an extremely efficient offense.
2:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And modern medicine has advanced so much to the point that players have been coming back quicker than ever.
2:32
[SPEAKER_00]: With all injuries across the board, Achilles, ACLs, all of it, none of it matters anymore.
2:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Which is kind of great for fantasy football.
2:38
[SPEAKER_00]: It's awesome that like a really serious injury happens at some point during the year.
2:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And then a lot of the times, it's not as impactful the following year as it was.
2:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you were playing fantasy 10 years ago, there was a lot of injuries that you just like had to completely wipe due to your boards of following year.
2:50
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not really the case anymore.
2:51
[SPEAKER_00]: This is an offense in San Francisco that has been top nine in passing touchdowns per game in three the last four years and top four in two of those four.
2:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Even if George Kittles is not 100% himself and he plays a limited role 60 to 70% of the snaps rather than the 90% he's typically playing, he could play a really solidified red zone role and end up scoring seven to eight touchdowns this year and if you get into that range as a fantasy tight end like you're going to end
3:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And while his price has moved up accordingly, like he is the Titan 9 right now in fantasy and I would say as the reports become more and more positive, he's likely going to jump up to Titan 8, maybe into the Titan 7 role, regardless, you can still pair him with someone else in later rounds.
3:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's a fantastic pick where he's currently going off the board at Titan 16.
3:36
[SPEAKER_00]: While Jordan Tyson is out, Joanne Johnson should see an extremely high target chair in a fast pace offense there.
3:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you want to grab Joanne Johnson for the beginning of the year, watch how things play out with George Kittle, these are picks that you need to spend around eight and then around 11 or 12 pick on.
3:51
[SPEAKER_00]: It's great insurance.
3:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And if George Kittle starts getting a real role there, starts kind of popping off then cool.
3:56
[SPEAKER_00]: You got George Kittle.
3:57
[SPEAKER_00]: But if not, Joanne Johnson's going to be great in the beginning of the year.
3:59
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's the case to be made with Mr. George Kittle.
4:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, we've got RJ Harvey, a guy who I was not very high on as a prospect coming out, and I think the majority of my concerns were that he was not a good in between the tackle's runner, and I think for the most part that proved itself out during his rookie year to the point that Denver, you know, re-sign JK Dobbins went out and drafted Jonah Coleman to kind of be his handcuff.
4:20
[SPEAKER_00]: However, RJ Harvey is an incredibly explosive.
4:23
[SPEAKER_00]: RJ Harvey is a very good pass catcher,
4:28
[SPEAKER_00]: top down best set ups for an offensive system going into 2026.
4:32
[SPEAKER_00]: They have one of the best offensive lines and almost unanimously looked at as the best offensive line in the NFL.
4:37
[SPEAKER_00]: You got Sean Peyton calling plays.
4:39
[SPEAKER_00]: You have a team that runs a very high number of past plays.
4:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Usually high in past rate over expectation, which is obviously great for RJ Harvey.
4:45
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to get a lot of design plays thrown his way.
4:47
[SPEAKER_00]: This is way more of a PPR take than a half PPR take.
4:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's always the idea that Archie Harvey can simply improve as they run her when you're playing at a school like UCF you're not typically seeing NFL talent on a week to week basis in terms of the defense that you're playing at college when you jump up to NFL speed right away and might take a lot of process you realize that you probably have to rely less on athleticism, which is what RJ Harvey did all the time he was typically bouncing runs outside that work in college against dudes that are way slower than him, but at the NFL level you have to be able to process and have a little bit better vision than he did course again, he can improve as a second year player.
5:19
[SPEAKER_00]: It's also a lot easier to do behind a top ranked offensive line.
5:23
[SPEAKER_00]: The other, like, big piece that the Broncos added this offseason was Shane Wattle.
5:27
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, Wattle's a dude that takes the top off of defenses, so you won't be able to stack the box at all against any of the running backs that are back there for Denver, whether it's a Dobbins or Harvey.
5:35
[SPEAKER_00]: or Jonah Coleman.
5:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Like when Wattles on the field, safety are not able to creep up into the box because he will blast you deep.
5:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Harvey's a dude who can score big fantasy points on limited touches, right?
5:45
[SPEAKER_00]: 4 to 5 targets per game, 5 to 6 carries per game.
5:48
[SPEAKER_00]: He could run it for 40 yards.
5:49
[SPEAKER_00]: He can catch a 25 yard wheel route.
5:51
[SPEAKER_00]: We start in the preseason game.
5:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Sean Payton went out and handpicked this dude, used serious draft capital on him.
5:56
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not just gonna give up on him in year two.
5:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Then the obvious case to be made is that JK Dobbins cannot say healthy for a singular season.
6:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I am definitely of the belief that Jonah Coleman was brought in to be the early down guy.
6:07
[SPEAKER_00]: If JK Dobbins were to get hurt, but there's no doubt about it, both of them would see increased playtime.
6:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, Argya Harvey might start the year as a 35 to 40% snap guy.
6:15
[SPEAKER_00]: If Dobbins were to go down, this would be at minimum of 50, 50 split.
6:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's more of a rising tie situation, behind a dude who has not proven he get ever stay healthy here.
6:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So I get the appeal for Ajay Harvey.
6:24
[SPEAKER_00]: His raw stats last year were phenomenal as a rookie.
6:27
[SPEAKER_00]: His underlying data as a runner less than a peeling, but very explosive, very good pass catcher.
6:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Tie two again, one of the most appealing offensive situations that you're going to find in the entirety of the NFL.
6:39
[SPEAKER_00]: God, it feels gross making these cases for guys that I don't want on my teams.
6:43
[SPEAKER_00]: But you see how easy it is.
6:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I know y'all eating this shit up right now.
6:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, Kyle Pitz.
6:49
[SPEAKER_00]: y'all thought y'all you thought you thought never matching to talk about Caleb Williams next and you know i doubt you guys think of me as being a dude who's like fading Caleb Williams this year it's funny because he's a quarterback one for me i think he's like the quarterback eleven in my rankings right now but i'm a little bit lower on market because he is the quarterback seven off the board the bull cases incredibly obvious here i don't think anyone really needs to re-assure but we'll do that because that's what we're doing here
7:14
[SPEAKER_00]: It's year two of Ben Johnson, one of the better offensive-minded coaches in the NFL.
7:18
[SPEAKER_00]: It is year two of the trifecta between Luther Bird and Colson Lovelin and Roman Dunzey.
7:22
[SPEAKER_00]: You have a very good offensive line.
7:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Their defense could be incredibly poor this year.
7:27
[SPEAKER_00]: They might need to throw the ball 35, 38 times per game.
7:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And they might be a shootout team all year.
7:32
[SPEAKER_00]: They've got a bunch of injuries in their secondary already.
7:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I did just see a report actually legit like 10 minutes ago.
7:37
[SPEAKER_00]: The Jalen Johnson got her to practice filming this on Thursday, August 27th at 1 30 p.m.
7:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So I do not have any updated news on Jalen Johnson.
7:45
[SPEAKER_00]: It could just be a stinger.
7:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Could be something more serious.
7:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, but that's a huge loss if he's going to miss time.
7:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, they might be forced into throwing the ball a million times.
7:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's what happened with Ben Johnson in Detroit.
7:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Like he was annually making Jared Goff of 43-44-4500 yard passing guy.
8:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Because their defense was so bad and they had to throw the ball in catch-up mode.
8:03
[SPEAKER_00]: We're not catch-up mode necessarily like us.
8:05
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, they were good enough team that they weren't always playing catch-up, but their defense was poor, just letting up a ton of points.
8:09
[SPEAKER_00]: So they had to throw the ball a million times to keep up.
8:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And not to mention, Caleb Williams' fastest fuck boy ran for 500 yards as a rookie quarterback.
8:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Last year that number dipped a little bit, but then he seesaw positive regression progression as we should be calling it in the touchdown department went from zero as a rookie to three last year.
8:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So if he goes, you know, 450 and 5 on the ground, nobody should be surprised.
8:30
[SPEAKER_00]: He looks so good running the ball, man.
8:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know he's a mobile quarterback, but when you're watching him play and Caleb scrambles out of the pocket, there are like very few quarterbacks that actually look as fast as he does on the field.
8:42
[SPEAKER_00]: It's quite jarring.
8:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So his passing numbers don't even need to get up to like 4400 and 35 passing touchdowns if he adds a nice floor of rushing where he can combine the four 450 yards with four or five six rushing touchdowns like you don't need an elite passing season to be really good in fantasy.
8:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know people were gonna say, oh, he was early in the quarterback six.
9:01
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's already the quarterback seven.
9:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Last year, I get it.
9:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a really like poor, simple-minded argument to make in terms of like, oh, that's his floor.
9:10
[SPEAKER_00]: When you add context to it like sure, he did finish there.
9:12
[SPEAKER_00]: But that was in a year where like Joe Barrow was hurt for most of the year.
9:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Jane Daniels had a really bad year.
9:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Jane and her had a down year.
9:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Lamar Jackson was hurt all year last year.
9:19
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's directionally accurate that he was obviously really good in fantasy last year, but to be like,
9:23
[SPEAKER_00]: he was already a quarterback five or six.
9:25
[SPEAKER_00]: That's his floor.
9:26
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like a childish argument.
9:27
[SPEAKER_00]: So I, you know, just need to get that one off my chest there.
9:30
[SPEAKER_00]: So anyways, ranking Caleb Williams has like the quarterback 10 or 11.
9:34
[SPEAKER_00]: This is the one that I feel like I could be obviously so wrong on and I'm lower than consensus.
9:40
[SPEAKER_00]: And to be honest, after this argument, I think I put
9:42
[SPEAKER_00]: probably need to be a bit higher and I probably need to move them to at least quarter back 10, maybe in the quarterback nine range.
9:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I'm going to make them move in my ranking sphere.
9:49
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to see where I end up moving in, obviously you can go become a fantasy member on bdge.co.
9:54
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the full rankings list with changes that I make.
9:57
[SPEAKER_00]: It's got full outlooks for every player, their Vegas prop lines, their strength is scheduled, their offensive line ranks like, we got everything in there for you.
10:03
[SPEAKER_00]: You got your draft assistance, so you could sync your actual leagues if they're on sleep or Yahoo or ESPN, that you could use our rankings in real time, get players checked off the list
10:12
[SPEAKER_00]: happening in your actual drafts.
10:14
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, Caleb Williams, again, not a dude on like going out on my way to fate.
10:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I just happen to have him lower than the rankings.
10:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's obviously a very, very strong case to be made.
10:21
[SPEAKER_00]: The case against it is he hasn't proven to be that like top level pesser.
10:25
[SPEAKER_00]: We also have not seen, you know, Luther Bird in Oralma Dunes, they put it together for more than half a season.
10:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I also think Caleb's a pretty inconsistent thrower of the football.
10:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Like if you watch football, Caleb obviously has like the highest of highs, but on a down-to-down basis, like I wouldn't say he's a top 10 thrower of the football in terms of, you know, accuracy, consistency, things like that.
10:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I'm a little hesitant to put him into that tier of, like, yeah, he's like the next face of the NFL.
10:50
[SPEAKER_00]: He's the next guy.
10:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Profanacy, he could obviously do that because he's very athletic and the system and the scheme around him is incredible.
10:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, this is like one of everyone's votes here, and that's Brian Thomas Jr. And I think the biggest reason to be bought back into Brian Thomas Jr. this year is that he's not going to be asked to do what he did last year.
11:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it became very clear what his role in the offense should be by the end of the year.
11:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And by the end of the year, he was also hurt dealing with the high ankle sprain.
11:14
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think the role is going to be very clear.
11:16
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to be a boundary receiver.
11:18
[SPEAKER_00]: that opens up the offense, that runs very, very valuable downfield routes and spreads the defense all over the place.
11:25
[SPEAKER_00]: They have really talented playmakers in the middle portion of the field, Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers, Bretton Strange, and that leaves a lot of area downfield for Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. to connect.
11:36
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think a lot of people think of Brian Thomas Jr. and be like, oh, he has a ceiling there.
11:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I actually, I don't think he has a huge ceiling, given what I think his role is going to be.
11:43
[SPEAKER_00]: But we've seen a ton of players in fantasy have very usable seasons with the role that I'm expecting him to have in this upcoming season.
11:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, just look back at last, you're like, Alec Pierce did it.
11:53
[SPEAKER_00]: We have James and Williams, who's, you know, he got moved around a little bit more second half of the year, but overall the archetype of the player is similar.
12:00
[SPEAKER_00]: You have Brandon Cooks back with the Rams when they had a trifecta of really good receivers and he was like the downfield playmaker.
12:06
[SPEAKER_00]: You have like even Marvin Jones in his big years where like outside boundary receivers that sure like Brian Thomas Jr., he's, I don't know, like a seventh round pick right now.
12:13
[SPEAKER_00]: If he ends up catching 65 balls for a thousand yards and six touchdowns, you're gonna be like, yeah, that was a fine seventh round pick.
12:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Last year, Brian Thomas Jr. also led the NFL in drops with ten of them.
12:23
[SPEAKER_00]: which I don't think is a very sticky stat, obviously he was all over the place last year and some of the worst film you'll ever see.
12:29
[SPEAKER_00]: In the year prior, his rookie season, he had 45 more targets and had half the drops.
12:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So we had five drops in his rookie year on 45 more targets than he had last year.
12:39
[SPEAKER_00]: which to me just feels like yips, something weird was going on last year.
12:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you wanna wipe the slate clean, I don't really blame you.
12:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I said, I think he's gonna be an outside guy, a deep guy, last year Trevor Lawrence, Deepball accuracy, number nine in the NFL.
12:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel good about knowing his role.
12:52
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel good about the volume, they'll be able to project probably five to six targets per game.
12:56
[SPEAKER_00]: It's gonna be very valuable targets though.
12:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And to me, it's almost more of a matter of luck.
13:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Like when you depend on the deep targets, like that's really what it comes down to.
13:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, do the drops come back and do the deep balls end up being accurate.
13:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Do they end up being,
13:09
[SPEAKER_00]: overthrown on them.
13:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think if Trevor Lawrence competes for the MVP this year, which I don't think is that uncommon of a hot take, obviously it's not like a favorite, but I think a lot of people are like putting that in their hot take basket and throwing it out there.
13:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm one of those guys.
13:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the surrounding situation is great.
13:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I think BTJ is probably going to be a pretty
13:26
[SPEAKER_00]: big part of that, him going for somewhere between 950 and 1100 yards and connecting on a bunch of deep passes.
13:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think with all of the playmakers over the middle of the field, you're not really going to be able to play a ton of shell coverage on Brian Thomas Jr.
13:40
[SPEAKER_00]: So so many ways to beat him.
13:41
[SPEAKER_00]: If things break right in the luck department for a guy like Brian Thomas Jr. in terms of the accuracy on deep passes, he can obviously explode any given week and have a decent season over the course of the year.
13:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, same type beat, we got Marvin Harrison Jr. out in Arizona, and I think the very first thing you just start off with is the fact that it's a brand new offense.
14:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Michael Flores coming in as the head coach, he is going to be calling the plays, he is going to be installing a brand new offense.
14:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Now he's got, he's got the last name.
14:07
[SPEAKER_00]: He's got the last name appeal, right?
14:08
[SPEAKER_00]: The floor is enough for me to be like, okay, my eyes are open.
14:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And surely they're going to regress a bit in the past volume department, but there's just no way with the current structure of the team and how difficult the schedule is that they're still not going to need to pass the ball a ton.
14:25
[SPEAKER_00]: They're going to begin their fucking ass is thrown around all year.
14:28
[SPEAKER_00]: They're going to have to go and come back mode again in the second half of games like they did last year.
14:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And the pass line is going to be high again.
14:35
[SPEAKER_00]: They're like a four wind team in Vegas.
14:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Have one of the hardest schedules I've seen in the regular season.
14:39
[SPEAKER_00]: But on the flip side, pass volume obviously good for receivers.
14:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And two, their playoff schedules juicy.
14:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So, Mark could hit in a big way down the stretch for you.
14:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And when you look at Mark's reception perception profile from Matt Harmon, doing great work over there.
14:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Still, in 80th percentile separator versus man coverage, 77th percentile separator versus press coverage.
14:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Very strong for a boundary receiver.
15:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Michael Wilson is plenty talented and a legitimate wider receiver to in the NFL.
15:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And if I wasn't making this video in the type of frame that I'm making it, I'd be much higher on Michael Wilson, but we're just, you know,
15:12
[SPEAKER_00]: best case scenario from Marvin Harrison right now they're going to give M.A.
15:16
[SPEAKER_00]: every chance to be the alpha in this offense right they drafted him as a top five pick like they're going to continue to give him the leash to prove them right over the last two years like Marvin was not used creatively whatsoever was never taken off the line of scrimmage was never used in motion was never moved around the formation whatsoever was never put into the slot there were no lay up targets for him there were no easy fancy points coming for him.
15:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not saying that definitely changes, but I think the thing that would lead to that type of change would be a new play caller and a new scheme.
15:42
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I brought this up a lot this summer, but like Great London going from Arthur Smith.
15:46
[SPEAKER_00]: The Zach Robinson was an 8% slot guy to a 35% slot guy.
15:51
[SPEAKER_00]: It led to a 70 reception season jumping up to 105 reception season.
15:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Those things matter a lot.
15:57
[SPEAKER_00]: The other thing too is like,
15:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Michael Wilson went crazy last year, but as soon as Marvin Harris and Junior returned, who also dealt with a ton of injuries throughout the 2025 season, as soon as he returned, he became the number one targeted player in the offense again and kind of like eight Michael Wilson's lunch.
16:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, was that a talent thing or was that like a game plan thing?
16:11
[SPEAKER_00]: They're like, oh, MHA's back.
16:12
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to force him back into being the number one in the offense.
16:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, but it's obviously worth bringing up.
16:16
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to be the wide receiver one out there, at least until he loses it in 12 personnel, obviously he's going to be he's just going to be in every single down player for this Arizona Cardinal steam, which typically ends up leading to volume and fantasy production.
16:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving on up to some of the studs this year that I've been staying away from.
16:33
[SPEAKER_00]: of on HN.
16:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, he started the year as like the number 10 overall pick in fantasy and he has moved down significantly since then.
16:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I think correctly, but it's possible that the industry is over corrected now to where he's a mid late second round pick sometimes can scoop into the to the early third.
16:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the reasoning behind it is obvious, right?
16:55
[SPEAKER_00]: The Miami offensive situation is bad.
16:57
[SPEAKER_00]: It's poor.
16:57
[SPEAKER_00]: How many scoring opportunities are going
17:03
[SPEAKER_00]: brand new scheme, brand new head coach, all that kind of stuff.
17:05
[SPEAKER_00]: The very first thing that it was signed on HN2, a fact contract, clearly stating that they don't plan to change his role.
17:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that was something I was a little bit nervous about because Mike McDaniel was a guy who understands how to utilize a unique talent like that.
17:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a lot of coaches that would look at HN and say like, I, we can't really like load them up with a ton of volume because he's going to break.
17:23
[SPEAKER_00]: But Mike McDonald did it.
17:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously did it to a high level of success.
17:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the new coaching staff came in and said, we're going to do that again.
17:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And here's a billion dollars.
17:31
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the other thing to think through is the quarterback Malik Willis, what if he's just better than everyone expects?
17:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Like what if we've seen crazier things in the NFL, it's almost never a fluid ride of like, oh, the consensus on Twitter thinks this guy's probably not that good or this offense isn't going to be that good.
17:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Therefore, that happens.
17:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Like the number of things we are wrong
17:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Every year obviously we only have a very limited sample size of starts from Malik Willis But he's been pretty damn good over the last couple years now I don't want to like elongate that into a full season But I'm just saying what if Malik Willis is just a lot better than most people expect him to be and he is a franchise quarterback Obviously that's gonna be really good news for a guy like Devon HN
18:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Now while rushing quarterbacks, the point could be made that yes, they do not target the running backs often because they typically take off and will eat up a lot of rushing attempts and don't dump the ball off at a high enough clip for that to be like a massive part of the running backs fantasy game on the flip side of that spectrum mobile quarterbacks also do open up insane holes for rushers.
18:29
[SPEAKER_00]: That's been something that people in fantasy have been talking about since like the RG3 Alfred Morris Coralary.
18:34
[SPEAKER_00]: It is very difficult as a linebacker to know who you should keep an eye on there.
18:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Is it Malik Wills rolling out that way or is it a Von H. and getting the ball that way?
18:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think you can pick your poison there.
18:43
[SPEAKER_00]: You say, oh, not as many dump laws but a much more efficient ground game.
18:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And on that note, similar to the Arizona Cardinals, like this could this could be this year's Arizona Cardinals where they are just getting their ass kicked, left and right.
18:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And the entire second half of the entire year is just catch up mode and dump
18:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And the same point I made with Mulik Willis, like if Mulik Willis is better than we think, what if these rookie weapons that they've drifted in Chris Bell who a lot of people thought was a first round talent and Caleb Douglas who is shining at camp right now, what if they're both good too?
19:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I also think that Miami offense has legit chance to be better than most people expect.
19:15
[SPEAKER_00]: They have an absolute solidified stud on the line in our brewer, and then they use the 12th overall pick on Caden Proctor, who is a tackle from Alabama, and one of the best rum blocking tackles in the entire draft class this year.
19:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Like you get HM with a legitimate rum blocking stud, setting the edge for him, like that is the type of guy, HM with a set edge, you're not catching him ever.
19:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And we saw what he did last year with it.
19:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Second most runs in the NFL, 40 plus yards, second most touchdowns, a 40 plus yards, led the league in yards per carry, led the league in yards after contact per attempt.
19:43
[SPEAKER_00]: This dude is incredible on the ground.
19:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So do you need some luck for him to break away big plays to probably counteract the lack of scoring opportunities.
19:51
[SPEAKER_00]: This offense is going to have.
19:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, but it's not like they were very good last year.
19:55
[SPEAKER_00]: And he made the most of that.
19:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So HN just might be one of those dudes that's good enough to overcome really any situation that he's put in.
20:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think because the Miami Dolphins situation offense is such an unknown box, it might be wise as a fantasy player not to just assume the worst no matter what.
20:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Because again, raise your things if happened.
20:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's a general sentiment that I believe the best fantasy players play by is that like you should never really get too high or too low on a specific player.
20:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think you should ever go out of your way to paint like disingenuous context behind a player because you like them or dislike them.
20:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the best players are able to weigh the pros and cons of these types of players.
20:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the same thing should be said with a guy, by the name, you might have heard of him, Justin Jefferson.
20:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't even like hate Justin Jefferson this year at all.
20:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I just think he's probably one of the spooks your picks in the first round of drafts right now.
20:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I actually have him as wide receiver six of my rankings ADP as him as wide receiver six.
20:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm like one spot below overall ADP.
20:53
[SPEAKER_00]: I think on him, but I just think he's someone that probably belongs to this video because the sentiment around him feels like it kind of shares the way that I feel inside that it's like a little queasy when I when I click draft on Justin Jefferson.
21:04
[SPEAKER_00]: We all know the quarterback history with Kevin O'Connell here, right?
21:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I actually wanted to kind of lay it out because to be honest, you hear it over and over and over and over again, but a lot of people might not actually know why they consider him to be this like quarterback whisper.
21:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Starts back in 2015.
21:17
[SPEAKER_00]: His first year is an office coordinator.
21:19
[SPEAKER_00]: He was with the Cleveland Browns and he was able to get 3,800 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns out of the combination of Josh McCallan, Johnny Menzel, and Austin Davis.
21:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Their top pass catchers were Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnage, so we'll start there.
21:33
[SPEAKER_00]: In 2017, big numbers were with Kirkusons over 4,000 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns.
21:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Moves over the Rams, he's the offensive coordinator there, obviously not calling plays or running the show or, you know, the quarterback whisperer when Sean McFey is there, but obviously getting pretty good numbers out of golf, getting really good numbers out of Matt Stafford, and then Minnesota hires him to be the head coach in 2022.
21:52
[SPEAKER_00]: You have huge numbers from Kirk Cousins in 2022 and then 2023 before he gets hurt as well.
21:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you have Nick Mullins start four games.
21:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And in three of those four games, his passing totals were 411 yards, 303 yards and 3096 yards.
22:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll be it.
22:07
[SPEAKER_00]: They were against some of the worst-pass defenses in the NFL.
22:09
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's a part of me that feels like the narrative of him being this like,
22:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Amazing quarterback whisper is probably a little bit overblown by like a few, you know, one or two game sample sizes here and there, but that was Nick Mullins.
22:20
[SPEAKER_00]: It was Kirk Cousins.
22:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Nick Mullins had a big stretch there of a month and then Josh stopped everyone remembers him getting traded over to Minnesota and within like five seconds, he was the starting quarterback and learn the playbook and like it was a very cool storyline.
22:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And then of course, in 2024, you know, career year from Sam Darnall to end it up getting paid, going over Seattle and becoming their franchise guy.
22:38
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's been a lot of success with good quarterbacks, mediocre quarterbacks, bad quarterbacks, under Kevin O'Connell, which leads us to Kyler Murray.
22:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And the strongest point I can make for why Justin Jefferson will be fine with Calamari is not even for Calamari.
22:52
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not the biggest Calamari guy right now.
22:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, it's more so when you actually just look at what Justin Jefferson did in non-JJ McCarty or Max Brozmer starts last year.
23:03
[SPEAKER_00]: He averaged 93.7 receiving yards per game, which paced out to a full season as 1,590 yards, so basically 1,600 yards.
23:10
[SPEAKER_00]: He was on pace for 164 targets and at 113 receptions.
23:16
[SPEAKER_00]: AKA, that was his pace in Carson Wentz starts, right?
23:20
[SPEAKER_00]: And like, those are pretty damn good numbers, having Carson Wentz in the big year of 2025 at quarterback.
23:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, the touchdown numbers are the biggest question, but realistically, I don't think anyone is ever drafting Justin Jefferson with the touchdown upside ceiling in mind.
23:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I think you're always wrapped in Justin Jefferson because he's a high volume stud on the field that's gonna give you a massive, massive floor and a massive ceiling in terms of receptions and receiving yards.
23:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Like his career total so far in receiving touchdowns per year.
23:47
[SPEAKER_00]: 7, 10, 8, 5, 10, 2 last year.
23:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, obviously, he can score five, seven, eight receiving touchdowns with Colomar at quarterback.
23:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And you have the pace numbers of Carson Wentz.
23:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, you're looking at a top six, top five, wide receiver.
24:01
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just a little tough to swallow that pill because you look at the guys that go above him.
24:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're like, oh, the receiving touchdown upside for Ammon Rossing Brown and Puka.
24:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're more chase just feels so much higher.
24:12
[SPEAKER_00]: But touchdown look and fluctuate from year to year.
24:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So, JJ F's had 12 13 this year.
24:17
[SPEAKER_00]: No one would really bat an eye.
24:18
[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of just the way the NFL works when it's a non running back position for the most part running back score a lot of touchdowns if they're attached to a very good offense for wide receivers is a little bit of a different story.
24:28
[SPEAKER_00]: It's you know, directionally accurate, but still fluctuates pretty much there you have it now I love these guys I love them and I hope you love them and I hope I confuse the shit out of you and I hope I convince you that it's really easy to convince you.
24:40
[SPEAKER_00]: of things like this.
24:40
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
24:41
[SPEAKER_00]: These are still guys even after doing this exercise.
24:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I will admit, a little bit higher in Caleb Williams.
24:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I am a little bit more likely to draft Justin Jefferson.
24:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe not any more likely than I was, but maybe I'll be a little bit less queasy about pulling the
24:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Let me know if I change your mind on any of these guys.
24:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Let me know if you guys even fucking like this video.
25:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
25:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Jack was like this would be a sick video and he kept saying it over and over and over again.
25:05
[SPEAKER_00]: So I decided to do it.
25:06
[SPEAKER_00]: If you did enjoy, make sure you hit the button that looks like this down below.
25:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Subscribe to the channel.
25:11
[SPEAKER_00]: If you are new and go check out bdge.co for the fantasy membership which will ride right into the season.
25:18
[SPEAKER_00]: We have a bunch of new products that are launching for you guys in week one as well.
25:21
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
25:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I love y'all.
25:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for hanging out with me today and I'll see you when I see you.
25:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Mochi's.