Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NFL Best Bets Thursday 12/11/25
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
- 0:05Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
- 0:07Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
- 0:10Speaker 1: So that's that's what I'm gonna start off this show.
- 0:12Speaker 1: Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even know what
- 0:15Speaker 1: to tell you about that. I just don't want to
- 0:17Speaker 1: do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this.
- 0:21Speaker 1: Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a
- 0:25Speaker 1: good day at all. Own four, I have not had
- 0:30Speaker 1: a good season. Man with wookends the slump that I'm on,
- 0:34Speaker 1: and the slump continues, I've reached a new peak.
- 0:38Speaker 2: Actually, I'm gonna burn my Bruins hat Man. I don't
- 0:42Speaker 2: know what is going on with the Bruins. March eight,
- 0:45Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
- 0:47Speaker 2: It's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man, I
- 0:51Speaker 2: don't know what data is anymore. But I don't even
- 0:53Speaker 2: know what data is anymore.
- 0:54Speaker 1: Man, back with you after the worst stay that I
- 0:57Speaker 1: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
- 1:01Speaker 2: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
- 1:05Speaker 2: yesterday it did not go well for me.
- 1:07Speaker 1: Own five, the worst month that I've ever had in
- 1:11Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this, I don't know what to
- 1:13Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. Slump yesterday, the slump discontinuous,
- 1:18Speaker 1: the slump continues.
- 1:20Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:22Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
- 1:25Speaker 1: other than potentially.
- 1:26Speaker 2: End it all.
- 1:32Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you, Toadstool Sports, Thursday,
- 1:37Speaker 1: December eleventh, two and zero on the show yesterday. Uh,
- 1:42Speaker 1: college basketball doing.
- 1:44Speaker 2: Pretty well this season so far. I want to continue that.
- 1:46Speaker 1: Obviously, there's a lot more to go, so hopefully it
- 1:50Speaker 1: doesn't completely go.
- 1:51Speaker 2: To hell like last year.
- 1:53Speaker 1: Nj T with the outright win, Tulsa win and cover
- 1:58Speaker 1: pretty much no sweat on either of the so we'll
- 2:00Speaker 1: take that. Neither of them are really that close to losing,
- 2:03Speaker 1: so I'm happy about that. Obviously, got something on my
- 2:07Speaker 1: Red Sox advisor here.
- 2:09Speaker 2: I don't know what that is. All right today, I
- 2:12Speaker 2: don't know how.
- 2:12Speaker 1: Strongly I feel about these plays today, but we're gonna
- 2:15Speaker 1: have some plays.
- 2:17Speaker 2: We're gonna have one.
- 2:18Speaker 1: College basketball play. It's mostly hockey today. Hockey is the
- 2:22Speaker 1: sport that has the most action today. I'm gonna have
- 2:24Speaker 1: two hockey plays I thought I might have zero. I mean,
- 2:28Speaker 1: the hockey board is not strong, but I did find
- 2:31Speaker 1: two that I think are worthy at least. And then
- 2:33Speaker 1: I'm gonna give a one NBA play as well on
- 2:36Speaker 1: what is a small NBA board. And even though I'm
- 2:40Speaker 1: mister Thursday and Night, I do not love the Thursday
- 2:42Speaker 1: night football game, but I will talk about it obviously.
- 2:46Speaker 2: Let's get into it. College basketball, we have a slightly early.
- 2:51Speaker 1: Game between Doug gott Leaves Green Bay Phoenix at IU
- 2:56Speaker 1: Indie that run the floor ridiculously.
- 2:59Speaker 2: I have no idea how to predict this game. I'm
- 3:01Speaker 2: just talking about it for no reason because I have
- 3:04Speaker 2: no opinion on it.
- 3:05Speaker 1: Green Bay after gottlieb through the chair after they're close
- 3:09Speaker 1: lost to Robert Morris.
- 3:10Speaker 2: They did not bounce back at all.
- 3:12Speaker 1: They got absolutely embarrassed by Right State, so you got
- 3:16Speaker 1: to think they will be in kind of a foul
- 3:17Speaker 1: mood here and want to bounce back. But IU Indy's
- 3:20Speaker 1: coming off and getting smoked by Youngstown State as well.
- 3:24Speaker 1: Youngstown State most likely one of the better teams in
- 3:26Speaker 1: the Horizon. I don't know what we do with this, man.
- 3:30Speaker 1: I mean, Green Bay is a one point favorite. Now
- 3:32Speaker 1: on the road down from two and a half. The
- 3:34Speaker 1: money looks like it is coming in on Iupui or
- 3:36Speaker 1: IU Indy now eighty percent of the tickets, ninety eight
- 3:39Speaker 1: percent of the cash on IU Indy.
- 3:41Speaker 2: It is at the jungle.
- 3:43Speaker 1: That's what the arena is called in Indianapolis. I think
- 3:48Speaker 1: nobody really shows up for those games, although maybe now
- 3:51Speaker 1: that there's this fast paced phenomenon, maybe the crowd shows
- 3:55Speaker 1: up now even though there's still a losing team.
- 3:59Speaker 2: I don't know the.
- 3:59Speaker 1: Money's saying, I you, Indy, I don't really have an
- 4:01Speaker 1: opinion on it. Otherwise, Virginia Tech is playing Western Carolina again,
- 4:07Speaker 1: no real opinion here. I mean, these games are just
- 4:10Speaker 1: I mean, it's obvious why I don't want to do
- 4:11Speaker 1: anything with this Virginia Tech. I mean, I guess I
- 4:13Speaker 1: would say I would slightly lean towards taking the points
- 4:16Speaker 1: against them.
- 4:17Speaker 2: Here.
- 4:17Speaker 1: They are coming off this run of games against Saint
- 4:19Speaker 1: Mary's VCU South Carolina. I think the first two of
- 4:23Speaker 1: those are in a neutral site somewhere, yeah, in Bahamas.
- 4:27Speaker 2: Then they beat South.
- 4:29Speaker 1: Carolina on the road as an underdog, and then they
- 4:32Speaker 1: came back home and they did not suffer a letdown,
- 4:34Speaker 1: and they beat a pretty good George Mason team. So
- 4:37Speaker 1: now they're coming off of all that and they're playing
- 4:38Speaker 1: a weakling here laying a ton of points. I would
- 4:42Speaker 1: probably look to fade them Western Carolina coming off a
- 4:46Speaker 1: twenty plus point loss at USC Upstate South Carolina, Upstate
- 4:51Speaker 1: Western Carolina. I mean, they're they're pretty bad. They do
- 4:55Speaker 1: have some okay wins in here, though, Like they're fairly
- 4:57Speaker 1: battle tested as well, so they're not really gonna be
- 5:00Speaker 1: imitated by the face of Virginia Tech. After they've played
- 5:03Speaker 1: Cincinnati and Duke already this year, both on the road.
- 5:06Speaker 2: I think they'll show up.
- 5:08Speaker 1: I mean yeah, I would lean towards taking the points
- 5:10Speaker 1: in that one. I don't even know where it is,
- 5:12Speaker 1: Virginia taxa from nineteen and a half to twenty. It's
- 5:16Speaker 1: a decent sized spread there. I mean again, I don't
- 5:18Speaker 1: have a whole lot else to say about that one.
- 5:21Speaker 1: The game that I will give out a play on
- 5:23Speaker 1: is the actually the big game of the day.
- 5:26Speaker 2: Iowa Iowa State, and you.
- 5:27Speaker 1: Know how I do things, here comes the best bet.
- 5:32Speaker 1: We were going to take the points with Iowa here,
- 5:35Speaker 1: and of course I always forget to turn the timer
- 5:38Speaker 1: off on these there it is Iowa plus the eleven
- 5:42Speaker 1: and a half. I don't know if we can get
- 5:43Speaker 1: a better number than this, although it's in kind of
- 5:45Speaker 1: a it's a high enough range that it starts getting
- 5:48Speaker 1: into kind of dead numbers here. They're down from twelve
- 5:50Speaker 1: and a half to eleven and a half. Iowa State
- 5:52Speaker 1: is seventy seven percent of tickets on Iowa State, eighty
- 5:55Speaker 1: four percent of the cauch on Iowa.
- 5:56Speaker 2: So the market looks like it agrees with me.
- 5:59Speaker 1: I know this is that Iowa State, Iowa State is
- 6:02Speaker 1: going to try to run fast. I mean, this is
- 6:04Speaker 1: a tempo collision where Iowa wants to play really slow
- 6:08Speaker 1: under Ben McCollum. But it's like, well, which one of
- 6:12Speaker 1: these is gonna win out? Usually the better team and
- 6:14Speaker 1: the home team have the better shot to control the pace.
- 6:18Speaker 1: But you can see this total is low down to
- 6:20Speaker 1: one hundred and forty two. So the odds makers are
- 6:23Speaker 1: seemingly indicating that Iowa will be able to at least
- 6:27Speaker 1: mix this thing up and slow the pace down to
- 6:29Speaker 1: some extent. And it is at least easier to slow
- 6:31Speaker 1: the pace than it is to speed it up. So
- 6:34Speaker 1: we're gonna see two teams trying to go in different
- 6:36Speaker 1: directions here, but the clinching, I mean, the decider here
- 6:40Speaker 1: is really the Iowa State. I mean, they're coming off
- 6:43Speaker 1: just a monster win. I mean, they beat Purdue eighty
- 6:46Speaker 1: one to fifty eight at Purdue.
- 6:48Speaker 2: It was the worst loss at.
- 6:50Speaker 1: Home by a number one ranked team since I think
- 6:53Speaker 1: some loss by Yukon to Villanova decades ago, like at
- 6:59Speaker 1: least two decades ago. I think, so Iowa States coming
- 7:02Speaker 1: up of that, they had a really good second half.
- 7:04Speaker 1: And as I pointed out yesterday, I was correct by
- 7:06Speaker 1: the way about Purdue covering yesterday, though it was somewhat close.
- 7:10Speaker 1: But Iowa State, they just had a great second half.
- 7:12Speaker 1: They couldn't miss in the second half, fifty four percent
- 7:15Speaker 1: from the field, forty eight percent from three. Purdue lost
- 7:19Speaker 1: the turnover battle at home. Purdue actually won the rebounding
- 7:22Speaker 1: battle in the game by one, so i was State.
- 7:25Speaker 2: I mean, they're not exactly dominant on.
- 7:27Speaker 1: The interior if you look at their rebounding this year,
- 7:31Speaker 1: so that should help. Like an Iowa team, it's a
- 7:33Speaker 1: little bit more undersized, like they're not gonna hopefully they're
- 7:37Speaker 1: not gonna get totally dominated in the rebound department here,
- 7:41Speaker 1: because Iowa State isn't like the greatest rebounding team either Purdue. Again,
- 7:45Speaker 1: these shooting percentages are also big outliers. Purdue only shot
- 7:49Speaker 1: twenty two percent from three forty one percent from the field.
- 7:53Speaker 2: They usually do.
- 7:53Speaker 1: Shoot better than that. They're actually a very efficient shooting team.
- 7:57Speaker 1: So a lot of things that led to the disaster here,
- 8:01Speaker 1: and now I think the stock is just at its
- 8:03Speaker 1: peak on Iowa State.
- 8:04Speaker 2: Other rate fourth in the country.
- 8:06Speaker 1: Now, I think they're probably appropriately ranked for the most part,
- 8:08Speaker 1: they are that good.
- 8:09Speaker 2: But I just think it's a major letdown spot. Man.
- 8:13Speaker 1: We're looking at an Iowa team that did bounce back
- 8:15Speaker 1: nicely from their first loss, which was a loss that
- 8:18Speaker 1: we had on the show. I know, they went on
- 8:20Speaker 1: the road for the first time, it didn't do well
- 8:22Speaker 1: at Michigan State. They bounced back nicely with a win
- 8:25Speaker 1: over Maryland. Now you know they're going to be focused.
- 8:28Speaker 1: I mean, this is a huge rivalry game. Both teams
- 8:30Speaker 1: will be focused, but I think the game is going
- 8:33Speaker 1: to be closer than what the spread is. I still
- 8:35Speaker 1: think it's a letdown spot for Iowa State, man. I mean,
- 8:38Speaker 1: they're coming off a game. If anything could be a
- 8:41Speaker 1: bigger game than this, it would be what Iowa State
- 8:43Speaker 1: just did. So I think Iowa might be the somewhat
- 8:47Speaker 1: more motivated team in this one man, coming into this
- 8:49Speaker 1: game in the better spot here and now they're at
- 8:52Speaker 1: least used to being on the road here and.
- 8:55Speaker 2: This game, I mean, they don't have to travel as far.
- 8:57Speaker 1: I mean, this is a trip that they make every
- 8:59Speaker 1: other year year, although of course with Ben McCollums new
- 9:01Speaker 1: team here, they haven't done it yet. But unless maybe
- 9:04Speaker 1: Drake did last year, I don't even know. Maybe maybe
- 9:06Speaker 1: I should look, but either way, I'm gonna take the
- 9:09Speaker 1: points of Iowa here. That's the college basketball play of
- 9:12Speaker 1: the day there. Simply Iowa State's gonna letdown. I mean,
- 9:18Speaker 1: that's like the simplification of it, and I think it
- 9:20Speaker 1: should work in this game, hopefully.
- 9:23Speaker 2: Zach, what's up? Thanks for hanging out, yes sir? Yeah,
- 9:27Speaker 2: good day yesterday. They can't all be.
- 9:30Speaker 1: Like that, though, so I will forwarn NHL. We got
- 9:35Speaker 1: a board that I really don't like this board much.
- 9:37Speaker 1: There's a lot to choose from thirteen games. I got
- 9:40Speaker 1: two out of these thirteen, and I don't really love
- 9:44Speaker 1: a lot of it. Man, we have San Jose at
- 9:46Speaker 1: Toronto San Jose. Actually, do I want to talk about
- 9:51Speaker 1: any more college of basketball?
- 9:52Speaker 2: Don't?
- 9:52Speaker 1: I don't think there was any other college of basketball.
- 9:53Speaker 1: Hang on, let me just make sure, and it's showing
- 9:57Speaker 1: me yesterday of course. Oh actually, mistake college of basketball.
- 10:01Speaker 2: One.
- 10:02Speaker 1: Hold on, We do have one other game that's somewhat
- 10:04Speaker 1: of note, Saint Joe's and Syracuse. When I first took
- 10:07Speaker 1: a look at this, I'm like, well, Syracuse is gonna
- 10:09Speaker 1: be in a letdown spot. They just pulled off a
- 10:11Speaker 1: nice upset of Tennessee. We had them in that game.
- 10:15Speaker 1: That was a home game, big time upset. After Syracuse
- 10:19Speaker 1: got pretty much blasted by that Iowa State team out
- 10:23Speaker 1: and Las Vegas and they had to play. They lost
- 10:27Speaker 1: all three games in their tournament in Las Vegas. Although
- 10:29Speaker 1: that may not be great because this game is also
- 10:32Speaker 1: in Las Vegas. But again, I mean, that's another knock
- 10:37Speaker 1: against Syracuse. If they didn't do well in Vegas. Now
- 10:40Speaker 1: they're let down spot coming up an upset of Tennessee.
- 10:43Speaker 1: The problem is Saint Joe's has not been I don't
- 10:45Speaker 1: think they've been outside of Philadelphia this season. If I'm
- 10:48Speaker 1: not mistaken. They definitely have not been to Vegas. So
- 10:50Speaker 1: the problem I have with this is that Syracuse is
- 10:52Speaker 1: now used to being in Vegas, so they're gonna because
- 10:55Speaker 1: they were just out there, they kind of know how
- 10:57Speaker 1: to deal with the distractions now better Because others I
- 11:00Speaker 1: would say, yeah, you gotta fade Syracuse here.
- 11:02Speaker 2: It's definitely a letdown spot.
- 11:04Speaker 1: But I don't think we could do it, even though
- 11:07Speaker 1: I would probably still lean to taking the points here.
- 11:10Speaker 1: I just worry about it, man, because again, Saint Joe's actually,
- 11:13Speaker 1: let me see, were they in Vegas too? Let me see,
- 11:15Speaker 1: Oh they were. What am I saying? They did go
- 11:17Speaker 1: to UNLV at least, so actually that kind of mitigates
- 11:20Speaker 1: that a little bit. Yeah, Saint Joe's actually went out
- 11:23Speaker 1: for one game. They went out to Las Vegas. So
- 11:26Speaker 1: both teams have actually played in Vegas this year. You know,
- 11:30Speaker 1: I'm still not gonna do it Syracuse. By the way,
- 11:33Speaker 1: they've had a lot of time off. They've had like
- 11:35Speaker 1: eight days off since that win. But I talk about
- 11:38Speaker 1: it when you have a long layoff, which I'm gonna
- 11:40Speaker 1: talk about in the NBA said, hey, but when you
- 11:43Speaker 1: have a long layoff, if you went into that layoff
- 11:45Speaker 1: and a great note, usually it will like hurt your
- 11:48Speaker 1: momentum and you'll like be just basking in that win
- 11:52Speaker 1: over the layoff, you know what I mean. So I
- 11:53Speaker 1: actually think that's bad. Whereas even though Saint Joe's played
- 11:56Speaker 1: like two days ago it was an easy win over
- 11:59Speaker 1: cop in States, that's just a momentum continuer. So yeah,
- 12:03Speaker 1: I forgot about that game. But yeah, Saint Joe's is
- 12:05Speaker 1: my opinion. In that game, Syracuse is up from twelve,
- 12:08Speaker 1: and after thirteen sixty percent of the tickets on them,
- 12:11Speaker 1: only fifty nine percent of the cash.
- 12:12Speaker 2: Yeah, so I would take the points with Saint Joe's.
- 12:15Speaker 1: It's a little bit more tempting knowing that they did
- 12:17Speaker 1: actually play in Las Vegas earlier this year, But I'm
- 12:21Speaker 1: not going to do it. All right, NHL San Jose
- 12:25Speaker 1: is at Toronto.
- 12:28Speaker 2: In this game. San Jose coming off an ugly loss
- 12:32Speaker 2: of Philadelphia.
- 12:33Speaker 1: Four to one. Now they're going up to Toronto. Toronto
- 12:37Speaker 1: playing a little bit better with Matthews back here. Toronto
- 12:40Speaker 1: could be in a letdown though. I mean, they're coming
- 12:41Speaker 1: off a big win over Tampa Bay. They've had a
- 12:44Speaker 1: couple of days off, But I think when you have
- 12:45Speaker 1: a couple of days off of a big win, you're
- 12:47Speaker 1: kind of just basking in it. And then they do
- 12:49Speaker 1: have Edmonton coming up next, so it looks like kind
- 12:52Speaker 1: of a sandwich spot to me in this one. I
- 12:53Speaker 1: would look towards san Jose in this game. This is
- 12:57Speaker 1: not a play for me. Toronto's down for minus two
- 13:00Speaker 1: to minus two hundred, so we're looking at like you
- 13:03Speaker 1: could take san Jose on the puck line. Maybe the
- 13:05Speaker 1: odds makers are really disrespecting san Jose here. You're getting
- 13:08Speaker 1: a huge price with them. Although the odds makers are
- 13:11Speaker 1: telling you something with that line. They are telling you
- 13:13Speaker 1: San Jose is not even as good as their record looks,
- 13:15Speaker 1: which I keep saying as well. We don't really see
- 13:18Speaker 1: the percentages on this. Yeah, Toronto will be public, but
- 13:21Speaker 1: I would look towards San Jose plus the one and
- 13:24Speaker 1: a half goals on the puck line in that game
- 13:26Speaker 1: if I was gonna do anything with it. Tampa and
- 13:29Speaker 1: New Jersey should be a pretty good game. Although I
- 13:31Speaker 1: assume New Jersey is still without Hughes. I don't know
- 13:34Speaker 1: if and when he's coming back. Interestingly, both of these
- 13:37Speaker 1: teams just broke a lost streak in their last game.
- 13:40Speaker 1: Tampa Bay crushed Montreal six to one on Tuesday, then
- 13:44Speaker 1: ended a lost streak, and a lot of times, when
- 13:45Speaker 1: you end a lost streak, it will give you it
- 13:47Speaker 1: will give you new momentum moving forward. But remember Tampa Bay,
- 13:51Speaker 1: Vaselevsky is hurt. Now he's on the shelf, so their
- 13:55Speaker 1: goaltending situation is a bit muddy. And they use Johansson again,
- 13:59Speaker 1: and that game on a back to back, so I
- 14:01Speaker 1: don't know what they're doing. I don't know if they
- 14:04Speaker 1: have another goal. He was gonna come into the mix here.
- 14:06Speaker 1: So I worry about Tampa Bay for that reason.
- 14:11Speaker 2: I don't know what else.
- 14:12Speaker 1: Oh, Tampa Bay's scheduling spot is also not great. A
- 14:14Speaker 1: third game in four days, fourth game in six days,
- 14:17Speaker 1: all in different cities, not exactly the greatest spot for
- 14:21Speaker 1: Tampa A little bit of travel there around the northeast.
- 14:25Speaker 1: New Jersey also broke a law street they lost five
- 14:28Speaker 1: games in a row. They beat Ottawa four to three
- 14:32Speaker 1: on the road coming back home from that, but they
- 14:34Speaker 1: did have days off before that, so even though New
- 14:36Speaker 1: Jersey is returning home from a road trip, it was
- 14:39Speaker 1: only a two game trip to Boston and Autawa, so
- 14:42Speaker 1: I don't really consider that to be a full road
- 14:44Speaker 1: trip return where they're going to be totally distracted or
- 14:47Speaker 1: anything like that. So I actually kind of like New
- 14:49Speaker 1: Jersey in this one. I don't like the travel spot
- 14:54Speaker 1: for Tampa really as much, so New Jersey would be
- 14:56Speaker 1: my opinion. The money disagrees though, take it's eighty two
- 15:00Speaker 1: percent of the couch on Tampa. They're all the way
- 15:02Speaker 1: up from minus one ten to minus one thirty three,
- 15:05Speaker 1: So I mean it almost looks too tempting to take
- 15:07Speaker 1: New Jersey is a huge, not huge, but a sizeable
- 15:10Speaker 1: home underdog here like this oddsmakers are telling you Tampa
- 15:14Speaker 1: Bay is that good, that this much of a road
- 15:17Speaker 1: favorite against New Jersey. But given the spot, I don't know,
- 15:20Speaker 1: I kind of lean towards grabbing the devils as the underdog.
- 15:23Speaker 1: There not a play though, Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks
- 15:26Speaker 1: for hanging out.
- 15:28Speaker 2: Yeah, my sleep schedules messed up as well.
- 15:30Speaker 1: I got I got up at like six am yesterday
- 15:33Speaker 1: and then I was just pounding coffee. Now I have
- 15:35Speaker 1: a headache. I didn't sleep enough last night. I did
- 15:37Speaker 1: sleep a little bit, but I'm feeling like an ass
- 15:40Speaker 1: right now. I don't know what I'm gonna do, man,
- 15:43Speaker 1: but yes, thanks for hanging out. We had a two
- 15:45Speaker 1: to zero day yesterday. Yeah, I mean, we're on a
- 15:49Speaker 1: nice little run here. We're trying to finish the year
- 15:52Speaker 1: pretty strong here, which already we are, I mean, unless
- 15:56Speaker 1: something like goes completely haywire over the last a couple
- 16:01Speaker 1: of weeks here. All right, we have Anaheim at the Islanders.
- 16:06Speaker 1: The Islanders, you know, they're kind of my nemesis here,
- 16:08Speaker 1: keep trying to fade them.
- 16:10Speaker 2: We were able to get the win against them with Florida.
- 16:13Speaker 1: They bounced back from that and they beat Vegas in
- 16:16Speaker 1: a shootout back at home. They might be in a
- 16:19Speaker 1: little bit of a letdown off of that, man, And
- 16:20Speaker 1: they do have Tampa Bay in a couple of days.
- 16:22Speaker 2: They did just beat Tampa Bay.
- 16:24Speaker 1: But Tampa Bay is a big Eastern Conference matchup, man,
- 16:27Speaker 1: So it is possible. This is like a little bit
- 16:29Speaker 1: of maybe a sandwich spot here, even though it seems
- 16:32Speaker 1: kind of ridiculous to say you'll overlook Anaheim because they
- 16:35Speaker 1: have a good record too, But maybe Anaheim coming off
- 16:40Speaker 1: a shut a shootout win over Pittsburgh that was a
- 16:43Speaker 1: win for us on the show as well. Starting the
- 16:46Speaker 1: road trip, they got some momentum here now, at least
- 16:50Speaker 1: to me, I think the spot is a little bit
- 16:52Speaker 1: better for Anaheim here, that would be my opinion here.
- 16:54Speaker 2: The money seems to agree on that one. For now.
- 16:56Speaker 1: At least, the Islanders are minus one twenty five on
- 16:59Speaker 1: the money line.
- 17:00Speaker 2: Fifty eight percent of tickets sixty six percent of.
- 17:02Speaker 1: The cash on Anaheim is a slight dog there. The
- 17:06Speaker 1: ESPN game is Vegas and Philadelphia are one of the two.
- 17:09Speaker 1: There's a doubleheader on ESPN here. This is the seven
- 17:13Speaker 1: pm Eastern. This is in Philadelphia. Uh, the odds makers,
- 17:18Speaker 1: if you look at this, the odds makers right away,
- 17:19Speaker 1: they're telling you not to believe Philadelphia's record because Vegas
- 17:23Speaker 1: is up from minus one fifty minus one fifty five here.
- 17:28Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers are again this line. They're telling you
- 17:32Speaker 1: that Vegas is significantly better than Philadelphia by being favored
- 17:36Speaker 1: like that on the road. Fifty percent of the tickets
- 17:38Speaker 1: and cash look like they're evenly split right now. But
- 17:42Speaker 1: it's one of those situations where at least the line
- 17:44Speaker 1: looks pretty misleading, where it looks almost too easy to
- 17:47Speaker 1: take the team with the better record as an underdog
- 17:50Speaker 1: at home. Vegas to just lose a four game win streak, though,
- 17:55Speaker 1: So I don't like playing teams that just lost a
- 17:56Speaker 1: win streak because.
- 17:58Speaker 2: Sometimes they will be hung over after that.
- 18:00Speaker 1: They just lost in a shootout to the Islanders, so
- 18:03Speaker 1: I worry about that a little bit as far as
- 18:05Speaker 1: Vegas is concerned. Philadelphia just beat San Jose and the
- 18:09Speaker 1: staying at home, so the spot to me does look
- 18:11Speaker 1: a little bit better for Philadelphia, except that they do
- 18:14Speaker 1: have Caroline up next, so there is I guess, somewhat
- 18:17Speaker 1: of a potential for a look ahead here. But I
- 18:18Speaker 1: don't think you really are gonna overlook Vegas when you're playing.
- 18:21Speaker 2: Them at home on ESPN.
- 18:23Speaker 1: So even though it's one of those misleading lines, I mean,
- 18:27Speaker 1: I wouldn't really disagree with leaning towards Philadelphia as the underdog,
- 18:31Speaker 1: but I don't like it that much. You made it
- 18:36Speaker 1: a parlay, yeah, no, you lost in your other parlays. No,
- 18:40Speaker 1: I was right about both NBA games yesterday, though, I
- 18:43Speaker 1: said lay the points with Oklahoma City yesterday, and I
- 18:45Speaker 1: said take the points with the Spurs generally, I mean,
- 18:49Speaker 1: I wasn't that strong on them, but I did get
- 18:51Speaker 1: those both right.
- 18:53Speaker 2: I think I was pretty bad in hockey yesterday. Though.
- 18:58Speaker 2: All right, we have Montreal at.
- 19:00Speaker 1: Pittsburgh, because I guess I'm just gonna talk about all
- 19:03Speaker 1: these games. I mean, there aren't many other games in
- 19:05Speaker 1: the other sports today, so it won't be that long
- 19:07Speaker 1: of a stream either. Montreal coming off two loss is
- 19:13Speaker 1: a real ugly loss in their last game to Tampa Bay.
- 19:16Speaker 2: Starting a road trip looks like it should be a
- 19:18Speaker 2: positive spot.
- 19:19Speaker 1: Like one of the best things you can do when
- 19:20Speaker 1: you get murdered at home like that is to just
- 19:22Speaker 1: forget about it and just start a road trip.
- 19:25Speaker 2: So I expect some focus out of Montreal here. Pittsburgh.
- 19:28Speaker 1: I mean again, I keep saying they're not as good
- 19:30Speaker 1: as their record looks. They just return home lost to Anaheim.
- 19:34Speaker 1: We got the win on that one. I talk about
- 19:36Speaker 1: how they return home spot is a distraction spot a
- 19:38Speaker 1: lot of times because you have to get back to
- 19:40Speaker 1: home life. A lot of times, when you do bad
- 19:42Speaker 1: in that game, you bounce back and you do better
- 19:44Speaker 1: in the next game. I do still expect Pittsburgh to.
- 19:47Speaker 2: Show up here.
- 19:48Speaker 1: It's a pretty big game against Montreal, but they are
- 19:51Speaker 1: coming off two shootout games man against good teams Dallas
- 19:55Speaker 1: and Anaheim, So I do worry a little bit. So yeah,
- 19:59Speaker 1: I mean slight opinion here towards Montreal is the underdog
- 20:02Speaker 1: even the money looks like it doesn't agree. Pittsburgh up
- 20:05Speaker 1: from minus one ten to minus one sixteen, seventy eight
- 20:08Speaker 1: percent of tickets, eight and nine percent of the cash.
- 20:10Speaker 1: Speaking of market disagreement, though it disagrees with one of
- 20:13Speaker 1: my plays today, so whatever, we're just gonna Actually it's
- 20:18Speaker 1: no longer disagreeing with that play, so never mind. I mean,
- 20:21Speaker 1: looking at these percentages early in the day, you can't
- 20:24Speaker 1: really you shouldn't put too much weight into it, man.
- 20:27Speaker 1: I mean you could use it as a guide, but
- 20:29Speaker 1: these hockey the markets just shift all over the place
- 20:33Speaker 1: because there just isn't that much volume in hockey, so
- 20:35Speaker 1: you could see huge changes, if that makes sense. But
- 20:39Speaker 1: I use it as kind of a guide trying to
- 20:41Speaker 1: figure out where I think the line's gonna go. Yeah,
- 20:43Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is up from minus one ten to minus one
- 20:45Speaker 1: sixteen on the money line there, but I would lean
- 20:48Speaker 1: towards Montreal as the dog.
- 20:51Speaker 2: Perhaps the best game.
- 20:53Speaker 1: Of the day, which is not on ESPN, it is
- 20:55Speaker 1: on ESPN Plus. All the games are on ESPN Plus.
- 20:58Speaker 2: Again. You do get your money worth having an ESPN.
- 21:01Speaker 1: Plus dude again, which is why I have it, even
- 21:04Speaker 1: though I have it through the stupid Disney Plus bundle
- 21:06Speaker 1: because it was a better.
- 21:07Speaker 2: Deal that way.
- 21:08Speaker 1: But you get a lot of You get a lot
- 21:11Speaker 1: of games with the ESPN Plus man, although I know
- 21:13Speaker 1: you could stream them elsewhere, but uh, let's not get
- 21:18Speaker 1: this channel nuked Carolina Washington. This is a good game
- 21:21Speaker 1: Carolina coming off beating Columbus. I don't think they're gonna
- 21:25Speaker 1: be unfocused or anything like that off of that, and
- 21:27Speaker 1: you're gonna you're gonna.
- 21:28Speaker 2: Get a focused effort out of Carolina.
- 21:30Speaker 1: I don't really know what's going on with their goaltending
- 21:32Speaker 1: situation or it looks like they're kind of alternating between
- 21:35Speaker 1: three goalies at this point. Hasn't really seemed to matter though.
- 21:38Speaker 1: This Carolina team is still good. Washington's been really hot recently.
- 21:43Speaker 1: After losing a win streak, they lost to Anaheim, they
- 21:46Speaker 1: bounce right back and they also beat Columbus. They've had
- 21:49Speaker 1: a lot of days off though, so a lot of
- 21:51Speaker 1: times when a team has a bunch of days off,
- 21:53Speaker 1: it can hurt their momentum a little bit. They'd actually
- 21:56Speaker 1: beat Columbus in a return home spot, but I think
- 21:58Speaker 1: Columbus was also in a bad spot in that game,
- 22:00Speaker 1: because I do not remember giving that out as a
- 22:02Speaker 1: play or anything. Probably I said I lead to the
- 22:05Speaker 1: over and that didn't happen. But Washington they did bounce back.
- 22:10Speaker 1: They didn't suffer the hangover. But again, when you have
- 22:13Speaker 1: a lot of days off, normally I would say the
- 22:14Speaker 1: second game back home, you're gonna bounce back from a
- 22:16Speaker 1: bad performance. But they didn't have a bad performance. These
- 22:19Speaker 1: days off could kind of have them coming into this
- 22:22Speaker 1: game a little bit cold.
- 22:23Speaker 2: So I actually somewhat prefer Carolina for that reason.
- 22:27Speaker 1: The money seems like it is agreeing with that to
- 22:30Speaker 1: a decent extent. Carolina is at minus one ten. I mean,
- 22:32Speaker 1: it's basically a pick the winner game here. Seventy eight
- 22:35Speaker 1: percent of the tickets around Washington, sixty one percent of
- 22:39Speaker 1: the cash on Carolina. So the money, at least early
- 22:42Speaker 1: the cash percentage seems to be all over Carolina, and
- 22:45Speaker 1: it seems like the Jos kind of want Washington in
- 22:48Speaker 1: this one, So I like picking the home team at
- 22:50Speaker 1: a cheap price. Kind of weird to see them off
- 22:54Speaker 1: of Carolina, but Carolina does play somewhat of a less
- 22:58Speaker 1: offensive style. It's offensive to the recreational betters because they
- 23:03Speaker 1: don't like teams that do that. But I like how
- 23:06Speaker 1: Carolina plays. I like their deepfense. They're usually underrated for
- 23:09Speaker 1: that reason. Yeah, lean to Carolina on that one. Mister Pinsey,
- 23:14Speaker 1: what's up?
- 23:15Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. I also apologize.
- 23:18Speaker 1: You know, my nose is just st I might have
- 23:20Speaker 1: to blow my nose after this too. Ottawa and Columbus man, Yeah,
- 23:28Speaker 1: just my sinuses are going crazy.
- 23:29Speaker 2: I'm sick right now. This is bad.
- 23:32Speaker 1: At least there'll be a short stream that I with
- 23:34Speaker 1: a decent amount of plays Outawa on a three game
- 23:38Speaker 1: losing streak. Here. They do just have a close loss
- 23:41Speaker 1: in New Jersey, though, So I don't know which way
- 23:42Speaker 1: this is gonna go, because they're starting a road trip.
- 23:45Speaker 1: I usually say when you start a road trip, it's
- 23:47Speaker 1: good you get to just leave home forget about it.
- 23:51Speaker 2: I think that is the case here.
- 23:52Speaker 1: But that was a close game against New Jersey a
- 23:55Speaker 1: couple of days ago, so I do worry that maybe
- 23:56Speaker 1: that does have a little bit of a lingering a
- 23:59Speaker 1: fact to hang over at the Normally I would say
- 24:01Speaker 1: when you're at home and you're losing, going out on
- 24:03Speaker 1: the road is a good thing for Columbus. They're at
- 24:06Speaker 1: a three game losing street. They're returning home from a
- 24:09Speaker 1: road trip, so you know, I don't like that. Although
- 24:11Speaker 1: it was somewhat of a short road trip was less
- 24:13Speaker 1: than a week. They went to Florida, Washington, Carolina lost
- 24:17Speaker 1: all three games. But I talk about when teams go
- 24:20Speaker 1: on the road, they don't usually bounce back right away
- 24:22Speaker 1: when they come back home. They usually fall into kind
- 24:25Speaker 1: of a distraction spot. So I do still lean to
- 24:28Speaker 1: Ottawa overall in this game. I mean again, when you
- 24:32Speaker 1: see a team start your road trip against a team
- 24:33Speaker 1: that's returning from one, I'm almost always going to be
- 24:36Speaker 1: at least leaning towards the road team.
- 24:38Speaker 2: There.
- 24:39Speaker 1: Ottawa up for minus one of seven to minus one thirteen.
- 24:41Speaker 1: Don't see the percentages on that yet, but I agree.
- 24:46Speaker 1: This next one is the one where the market already
- 24:47Speaker 1: shifted to be in agreement with me, probably because of
- 24:51Speaker 1: my thinking on it.
- 24:52Speaker 2: Man, people are tracking me on Action Network, so they.
- 24:55Speaker 1: Probably I probably influenced the line on this one, or
- 24:59Speaker 1: influence the percentages on Saint Louis Nashville here MGM as
- 25:04Speaker 1: auto one minus one fifteen. But they still have the
- 25:09Speaker 1: puck line with the other team favorite. Yeah that's interesting.
- 25:13Speaker 1: I mean, of course those puck lines are gonna be
- 25:15Speaker 1: juiced appropriately, but so they're gonna be it's gonna tell
- 25:20Speaker 1: the juice is gonna tell the tale that it's like
- 25:22Speaker 1: really close to a pick them. But yeah, the interesting
- 25:25Speaker 1: But yeah, those are separate markets, so like the money
- 25:28Speaker 1: line market will move with who's betting on the money line,
- 25:31Speaker 1: and the puck line market will move with who's betting
- 25:33Speaker 1: on the puck line.
- 25:34Speaker 2: So they are separate markets.
- 25:36Speaker 1: So sometimes they won't be completely reflective of each other.
- 25:40Speaker 1: It is interesting, though, it gets more interesting, like the
- 25:46Speaker 1: they're dudes that will just play close money line games
- 25:50Speaker 1: and they'll try to influence the line to like they'll
- 25:53Speaker 1: play the underdog to try to get them to become
- 25:54Speaker 1: the favorite and then come back and also take the
- 25:56Speaker 1: underdog on the other side for the same amount, you
- 25:59Speaker 1: know what I mean, So they're guaranteed like a small profit.
- 26:02Speaker 1: There are guys that do that too, but I don't
- 26:04Speaker 1: like that it requires pretty much no thinking. So and
- 26:08Speaker 1: it's even more of a grind than what I do.
- 26:11Speaker 1: So all right, next up is my best bet here,
- 26:15Speaker 1: one of them.
- 26:18Speaker 2: Oh wait, it's Saint Louis.
- 26:20Speaker 1: But let me hold on, which you probably could have
- 26:23Speaker 1: figured it out, because we're looking at quite the sandwich here.
- 26:28Speaker 1: We're gonna be on the Saint Louis Blues, even though
- 26:30Speaker 1: they gave me the Blues last time. I went with
- 26:33Speaker 1: them against my Boston Bruins, so at least I was
- 26:36Speaker 1: happy about the Bruins winning. Now Saint Louis couldn't zig
- 26:40Speaker 1: zag and they lost to the Bruins again on Tuesday
- 26:44Speaker 1: by the same score, five to two. But now Saint
- 26:47Speaker 1: Louis is going out on the road again. I think
- 26:50Speaker 1: they're gonna be focused on this one, man. I mean,
- 26:52Speaker 1: after another ugly loss. The last time they lost to Boston,
- 26:56Speaker 1: they did bounce back with two straight wins, so maybe
- 26:59Speaker 1: they'll repeat the same thing bounce back again.
- 27:01Speaker 2: Here.
- 27:02Speaker 1: Not much of a travel spot from Saint Louis to Nashville.
- 27:05Speaker 1: I know they do of Chicago up next, but I
- 27:08Speaker 1: don't know, man, After an ugly loss, I think they're
- 27:10Speaker 1: gonna show up for this. I think Bennington will be
- 27:13Speaker 1: back in net even though it didn't help us last time.
- 27:16Speaker 1: He lost to the Bruins for us in that game
- 27:18Speaker 1: on the fourth, but he is still their better goalie.
- 27:22Speaker 1: I think we're gonna get Bennington in this one. And
- 27:24Speaker 1: really this is about fading Nashville. I mean, the spot
- 27:26Speaker 1: that Nashville is in is bad. They're in an avalanche sandwich, dude.
- 27:32Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at their run of games
- 27:33Speaker 1: since last Thursday, they beat Florida on the road in overtime,
- 27:37Speaker 1: they lost to Carolina on the road, difficult game, came
- 27:40Speaker 1: back home, and they just beat floor Colorado in a
- 27:42Speaker 1: shootout on Tuesday. Colorado's got the best record in the Nhlman,
- 27:46Speaker 1: and they are indeed probably the best team in the NHL.
- 27:49Speaker 1: Huge win for Nashville was kind of a bad spot
- 27:52Speaker 1: for Colorado. I believe I called that out on the show.
- 27:55Speaker 1: I think my opinion on that game was Nashville on
- 27:57Speaker 1: the puck line as a giant home underdog and they
- 28:01Speaker 1: got the outright win.
- 28:02Speaker 2: Man.
- 28:02Speaker 1: And now they play this ugly below five hundred Saint
- 28:05Speaker 1: Louis team. Oh yeah, and as I said, avalanche sandwich.
- 28:09Speaker 1: After this, Nashville goes out and they played Colorado again,
- 28:12Speaker 1: and then they play Saint Louis and then Carolina again
- 28:15Speaker 1: after that, so very very odd.
- 28:20Speaker 2: Yeah, so Saint Louis.
- 28:21Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's like, I don't know, it's like the
- 28:23Speaker 1: reverse of what they just I don't even know. Man,
- 28:26Speaker 1: it's not quite a palindrome of a schedule here. It's
- 28:29Speaker 1: because Saint Louis is in the wrong spot there. But
- 28:31Speaker 1: you know whatever, my mind is going to weird places.
- 28:34Speaker 1: But yes, they have Colorado again next, which is another
- 28:37Speaker 1: big game. So the Avalanche Sandwich, man, could it could
- 28:41Speaker 1: cover you in snow?
- 28:42Speaker 2: Man, you could?
- 28:43Speaker 1: You could die out there in the elements here. So
- 28:46Speaker 1: I like Saint Louis in this one. Nashville is also
- 28:50Speaker 1: still a pretty ass team. So Nashville up from minus
- 28:53Speaker 1: one of seven to minus one twenty one.
- 28:55Speaker 2: So we're getting a little bit more value on the
- 28:57Speaker 2: Blues as the dog here.
- 28:59Speaker 1: I'm not even convey the Saint Louis is the lesser
- 29:01Speaker 1: of these two teams. Like, I think they're pretty undervalued
- 29:04Speaker 1: right now. A National is barely getting more than home
- 29:07Speaker 1: ice now that the line has moved up sixty percent
- 29:10Speaker 1: of tickets, only fifty five percent of the cash on
- 29:12Speaker 1: them now, So yeah, We're we're gonna be on Saint
- 29:15Speaker 1: Louis in that one.
- 29:18Speaker 2: That's the first play first of the two.
- 29:23Speaker 1: Yeah, the puck line versus money line disparity, but again
- 29:28Speaker 1: because the puck line is juiced like to such a degree,
- 29:31Speaker 1: it like won't be that much of a disparity really
- 29:33Speaker 1: if you think about it.
- 29:38Speaker 2: The best time to do.
- 29:39Speaker 1: The market read I usually I keep an eye on
- 29:42Speaker 1: it like all day pretty much like I try to
- 29:45Speaker 1: figure out, like when is the best time that I
- 29:47Speaker 1: actually want to put in the bet, And sometimes it's
- 29:49Speaker 1: not when I do the show. Usually I'm betting later,
- 29:53Speaker 1: but sometimes I'm not. But like usually because I'm fading
- 29:58Speaker 1: the public more often than I usually like to weight.
- 30:00Speaker 1: Although sometimes like, well, it's a trade off, right, because
- 30:04Speaker 1: the longer you wait, the more information you're getting. But
- 30:07Speaker 1: the more information that there is, the market is gonna
- 30:10Speaker 1: be adjusting to it and coming to a better price,
- 30:13Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So you're probably gonna by waiting,
- 30:15Speaker 1: you're also probably gonna lose a little bit of value.
- 30:17Speaker 1: So you gotta weigh those two things, like we've already lost, dude,
- 30:21Speaker 1: I want old dominion in the staff DNA curable. They
- 30:26Speaker 1: were a touchdown favorite when it opened. I mentioned them
- 30:28Speaker 1: as a lean on my show the other night. I
- 30:32Speaker 1: usually don't play the bulls right away, but that line
- 30:34Speaker 1: has crashed.
- 30:35Speaker 2: Man.
- 30:35Speaker 1: I still I don't know. I might still give out
- 30:38Speaker 1: of play an old dominion, but we've lost a lot
- 30:39Speaker 1: of value on that line, man. So I hate when
- 30:42Speaker 1: that happens. Like I'm pissed. Big betters put they they
- 30:48Speaker 1: put money on the games. It depends on which game
- 30:50Speaker 1: it is. Basically like, generally, if a better is gonna
- 30:55Speaker 1: be fading the public in a very public sport, so
- 30:58Speaker 1: like say the NFL, say you know you're gonn to
- 31:00Speaker 1: be fading a really public like favorite in the NFL,
- 31:04Speaker 1: the professional betters are usually gonna like play that one
- 31:06Speaker 1: right before game time because they're gonna generally get the
- 31:09Speaker 1: best number that they can right before game time. Because
- 31:11Speaker 1: the public plays the game late, you know what I mean,
- 31:14Speaker 1: They play it like on game day. So you in
- 31:16Speaker 1: that situation, you're gonna get the best number then. But
- 31:19Speaker 1: if it's a game that's on some crap conference, you know,
- 31:22Speaker 1: college basketball game, you're generally, I would say, gonna probably
- 31:27Speaker 1: play it like earlier. Because the line is, if you're
- 31:30Speaker 1: right about it. If the market, if the professionals agree
- 31:33Speaker 1: with you on it, the line's gonna move in that direction.
- 31:36Speaker 1: So you're gonna get the best value on the number
- 31:38Speaker 1: playing those types of games earlier, if that makes sense.
- 31:43Speaker 1: So yeah, and then the Bulls are a completely different
- 31:45Speaker 1: animal where the public is not playing.
- 31:47Speaker 2: The Bowls like until the day of.
- 31:49Speaker 1: But you could see that the professionals are hammering those
- 31:52Speaker 1: numbers like right away, the numbers in Bowls, the numbers
- 31:55Speaker 1: move more than like any in any other games because
- 31:59Speaker 1: it's just so crazy, like the lack of motivation and
- 32:01Speaker 1: stuff that some teams have taking away Forsburg took out.
- 32:09Speaker 1: Forsburg took out what Colorado's goalie. I didn't even see it.
- 32:14Speaker 2: Man, I have I'll have to go see the the
- 32:16Speaker 2: replan that.
- 32:17Speaker 1: Yeah, So so you want to you want to fade
- 32:19Speaker 1: the national sex avenders in this one with me today
- 32:22Speaker 1: and then so yeah, let's do it. You're gonna go
- 32:28Speaker 1: heavy on the app Yeah, but the avs are gonna
- 32:29Speaker 1: be like they're probably gonna be like a minus like
- 32:32Speaker 1: three p fifty favorite in that game.
- 32:34Speaker 2: Though, there's gonna be like no value really to.
- 32:36Speaker 1: Be found there on the ass you're not gonna lay
- 32:38Speaker 1: a minus two puck line on that. The only way
- 32:41Speaker 1: that you're gonna be able to play it really is
- 32:42Speaker 1: avs over their team total or something like that.
- 32:45Speaker 2: Probably, but hopefully I answered that question.
- 32:49Speaker 1: And by the way, speaking of bowls, if you guys
- 32:51Speaker 1: saw the latest news with Michigan, because they're in I
- 32:54Speaker 1: believe they're in the.
- 32:55Speaker 2: Cheese at Citrus.
- 32:56Speaker 1: Bowl in Miami or whatever against Texas. Michigan fired their
- 33:01Speaker 1: coach More after he'd only been there. He'd been there
- 33:04Speaker 1: since Harball left I think, so only a couple of years.
- 33:07Speaker 1: He was having an inappropriate relationship with somebody on the staff,
- 33:13Speaker 1: which you're not supposed to do. But and I guess
- 33:16Speaker 1: I think he's married as well, so it was like
- 33:19Speaker 1: an infidelity situation. But that's like, okay, you know, you're
- 33:23Speaker 1: sleeping with some other woman whatever. Like I'm not that
- 33:26Speaker 1: surprised by that. The team fired him for that. But
- 33:29Speaker 1: what I didn't realize is that he actually got arrested
- 33:32Speaker 1: as well because he broke into the staffer's house. I
- 33:35Speaker 1: think like his mistress, he like broke into her house
- 33:38Speaker 1: or something like that to I don't know, to probably
- 33:42Speaker 1: get rid of some evidence that he was doing that.
- 33:44Speaker 1: I think he was trying to steal something, like I.
- 33:46Speaker 2: Have no idea, dude. He's in jail now.
- 33:49Speaker 1: So now Michigan has some interim coach who everybody's making
- 33:52Speaker 1: fun of online right now because he's this really obese
- 33:56Speaker 1: old dude with like awful man boobs. Like I don't
- 34:00Speaker 1: know if you've seen this, it's all crazy, dude. You
- 34:02Speaker 1: can go find it on Twitter. I don't know what
- 34:04Speaker 1: we're gonna do with Michigan case. My first instinct was
- 34:06Speaker 1: that Michigan was going to be more excited to be
- 34:08Speaker 1: in that Bowl because I got like a freshman quarterback there.
- 34:11Speaker 2: Texas was the number one team, you know, to start
- 34:14Speaker 2: the season.
- 34:14Speaker 1: But now with that Michigan coaching situation, I mean, that
- 34:18Speaker 1: game I think is pretty much unplayable.
- 34:20Speaker 2: Like Texas has gone up to a bigger favorite.
- 34:22Speaker 1: So if you do still, the Texas is going to
- 34:24Speaker 1: be disappointed and whatever, you get more points on Michigan
- 34:28Speaker 1: in that game. But man, I was thinking about maybe
- 34:30Speaker 1: looking at Michigan in that game. But now I think
- 34:32Speaker 1: that game has got to be a stay away. It's crazy, dude,
- 34:35Speaker 1: all right, finishing hockey here, we have one more playing
- 34:40Speaker 1: hockey somewhere here. Dallas is at Minnesota. Dallas coming off
- 34:46Speaker 1: a win over Winnipeg. Dallas has won four games in
- 34:49Speaker 1: a row. Traveling from Winnipeg to Minnesota here, I think
- 34:54Speaker 1: they'll show up. I mean, Minnesota playing well right now,
- 34:58Speaker 1: although I keep talking about on Minnesota is not really
- 35:00Speaker 1: as good.
- 35:00Speaker 2: As their record looks. Dallas is the veteran of these
- 35:03Speaker 2: two teams. Still.
- 35:04Speaker 1: Minnesota just got a win to break a lost streak
- 35:07Speaker 1: over Seattle, but they were turning over from a road
- 35:09Speaker 1: trip and they've been on the road for over a week.
- 35:11Speaker 1: So I talk about how tricky of a spot that is,
- 35:14Speaker 1: even though they've had two days off. I actually think
- 35:16Speaker 1: that can kind of be worse sometimes because you get
- 35:18Speaker 1: back into the rhythm of things at home, you have
- 35:20Speaker 1: stuff to do at home.
- 35:22Speaker 2: It could be a distraction. So I don't like it.
- 35:25Speaker 2: Mantled though.
- 35:26Speaker 1: My hesitation with fading Minnesota here is that I don't
- 35:29Speaker 1: really think they're gonna overlook Dallas. I mean, how could
- 35:32Speaker 1: you when the team with the second best record in
- 35:35Speaker 1: the NHL. So I lean Dallas in the game because
- 35:38Speaker 1: I generally am just gonna fade teams are running over
- 35:41Speaker 1: from road trips. But I'm not gonna make a play
- 35:43Speaker 1: on this that Dallas is up for minus one twelve
- 35:45Speaker 1: to minus one forty ninety tickets, ninety six percent of.
- 35:49Speaker 2: The cash on Dallas.
- 35:50Speaker 1: They're a very public side too, kind of surprisingly because
- 35:54Speaker 1: you think that some of the public might come in
- 35:56Speaker 1: on Minnesota.
- 35:57Speaker 2: To hear because they have a pretty decent record.
- 35:59Speaker 1: They're a home underdog here at just Maker's still telling
- 36:02Speaker 1: you Dallas is the better team. I don't disagree with
- 36:05Speaker 1: that obviously. I think they're in the better spot too.
- 36:07Speaker 1: It was just a bit of a price to lay,
- 36:09Speaker 1: and I still think Minnesota might show up for that.
- 36:14Speaker 2: Like I like the distraction spot more.
- 36:15Speaker 1: When you're getting an underdog, that's gonna be like a
- 36:18Speaker 1: team that's gonna get overlooked, you know what I mean.
- 36:21Speaker 1: My Boston Bruins are at Winnipeg. Bruins just beat Saint
- 36:25Speaker 1: Louis again. The Bruins are in second place in the
- 36:27Speaker 1: division that they were supposed to be in last place. Man,
- 36:30Speaker 1: and they were like one hundred and ten to one
- 36:32Speaker 1: to win this division and they're in second place right now.
- 36:35Speaker 1: They're overperforming though, But I said I thought the Bruins
- 36:38Speaker 1: would be a mediocre team this year and possibly fighting
- 36:41Speaker 1: for a playoff spot this year. So they're exceeding my
- 36:44Speaker 1: expectations at least for now, although I'm expecting regression.
- 36:48Speaker 2: But they've won three.
- 36:49Speaker 1: Games in a row here, man after it looked like
- 36:51Speaker 1: they were playing a little bit less well recently, they've
- 36:54Speaker 1: had a nice little run here, although two wins of
- 36:56Speaker 1: those three were against Saint Louis. Bruins now going to Winnipeg. Winnipeg,
- 37:01Speaker 1: of course without their elite goaltender, though hell of a book.
- 37:04Speaker 1: Winnipeg has been on a big time slide without him.
- 37:08Speaker 1: They've only won like two games since he went down,
- 37:12Speaker 1: not good for them, and those wins were against Nashville
- 37:15Speaker 1: and Buffalo, and those are two of the worst teams
- 37:18Speaker 1: in the NHL right now, so not great for Winnipeg here.
- 37:21Speaker 1: They're coming out of a close game against Dallas as well.
- 37:24Speaker 1: They do have Washington next so as a better record
- 37:26Speaker 1: as well. I mean I probably have to slightly lean
- 37:31Speaker 1: towards the Bruins in that one. Not too excited about it,
- 37:34Speaker 1: and the market doesn't agree. Winnipeg did draw for minus
- 37:37Speaker 1: one minus one forty five sixty nine percent of the
- 37:42Speaker 1: tickets on Boston, but fifty two percent of the cash
- 37:44Speaker 1: on Winnipeg.
- 37:46Speaker 2: I don't really agree with the market reading that one.
- 37:48Speaker 1: I think Winnipeg it's gonna be a difficult spot, like
- 37:51Speaker 1: somewhat of a difficult spot for them, I think in
- 37:53Speaker 1: that game.
- 37:54Speaker 2: But I'm not playing it. I mean, I just am.
- 37:57Speaker 1: Rooting for the Bruins and that's about it. But I
- 37:59Speaker 1: could be obviously, I could be wrong in that game.
- 38:02Speaker 1: You could be wrong with any game, man, And I'm
- 38:04Speaker 1: trying to give out my strongest opinions here.
- 38:07Speaker 2: Detroit and Edmonton. Detroit is on a back to back.
- 38:11Speaker 1: Now, I forgot to mention because there's one other team
- 38:14Speaker 1: that's on a back to back. Although did I talk
- 38:15Speaker 1: about them yet? Did I skip a game? What's going
- 38:18Speaker 1: on here? I know there are two teams on back
- 38:21Speaker 1: to backs today, Winnipeg is excuse me, Detroit is one
- 38:26Speaker 1: of them with Florida utah la. I don't think those
- 38:29Speaker 1: teams are playing today, Rangers Chicago. Wait, who's the other team? Oh,
- 38:34Speaker 1: Florida's the other team. We haven't gotten to them yet,
- 38:36Speaker 1: all right, Yeah, so we have two teams on back
- 38:38Speaker 1: to backs.
- 38:39Speaker 2: Detroit is one of them.
- 38:40Speaker 1: They beat Calgary four to three yesterday after blowing a
- 38:43Speaker 1: Ford to nothing lead. Calgary kind of outplayed Detroit in
- 38:46Speaker 1: that game, though I leaned detwards Calgary yesterday they almost
- 38:50Speaker 1: came back. So now Detroit didn't exactly play that well.
- 38:53Speaker 1: They were I think looking ahead to Edmonton here, but
- 38:57Speaker 1: it is tough. It's a back to back, third game
- 38:59Speaker 1: of four days, fourth game in six days, fifth game
- 39:02Speaker 1: and eight days, all in different cities. That's not an
- 39:04Speaker 1: easy thing to do, man, So I still don't really
- 39:07Speaker 1: like the spot for Detroit here. Edmonton didn't play yesterday
- 39:11Speaker 1: and they're coming up a pretty ugly loss at home
- 39:13Speaker 1: to Buffalo in overtime, so I think it's more of
- 39:15Speaker 1: a bounced back spot for Edmonton here. They're a little
- 39:18Speaker 1: bit under the radar right now, and the oddsmakers are
- 39:20Speaker 1: telling you Edmonton is the better team, lining them at
- 39:24Speaker 1: minus one ninety, although it dropped the minus win eighty five.
- 39:27Speaker 2: But osmaker's telling you Edmonton is better.
- 39:30Speaker 1: Than Detroit fairly significantly, and that Edmonton is not as
- 39:33Speaker 1: bad as their record looks. Eighty percent of tickets, ninety
- 39:36Speaker 1: eight percent of the casual in Edmonton. I'm not really
- 39:38Speaker 1: gonna disagree with Edmonton there, though if you want to
- 39:40Speaker 1: go with it, you probably have to turn it into
- 39:42Speaker 1: like a puck line or regulation battle that I don't
- 39:46Speaker 1: love those anymore or whatever.
- 39:49Speaker 2: ESPN.
- 39:49Speaker 1: The night game of the doubleheader is an interesting one
- 39:52Speaker 1: at nine thirty Eastern.
- 39:54Speaker 2: It is Florida at Colorado.
- 39:56Speaker 1: So we have the team that won the last two
- 39:59Speaker 1: championships against the team that is the current best team
- 40:02Speaker 1: in the NHL.
- 40:03Speaker 2: Interesting.
- 40:05Speaker 1: Florida did play yesterday, as I was just alluding to,
- 40:08Speaker 1: they beat Utah. Sorry to sob there, Utah. If you
- 40:12Speaker 1: look at the stats, Utah kind of outplayed them. I
- 40:15Speaker 1: think I dug into that box score earlier today, So
- 40:18Speaker 1: kind of a loss there.
- 40:20Speaker 2: Florida started out the game, I think, up to nothing.
- 40:22Speaker 1: Utah want up tie the game at three, but then
- 40:24Speaker 1: they fell short. So a tough game for Florida. Now
- 40:27Speaker 1: they're doing this back to back in elevation. That's not
- 40:30Speaker 1: easy to do, dude, playing two games and two nights
- 40:33Speaker 1: in elevation, even though they did have rest prior to this.
- 40:36Speaker 1: But it's gonna be difficult, man. I think it's a
- 40:39Speaker 1: difficult spot. Whereas Colorado, you know they're gonna be pissed
- 40:43Speaker 1: because they just lost to Nashville.
- 40:44Speaker 2: The problem is they were turning over from a road trip.
- 40:47Speaker 2: They went out to the.
- 40:48Speaker 1: East coast, they played both New York's Philadelphia, and then
- 40:51Speaker 1: came into Nashville. And now they're back home, and they
- 40:54Speaker 1: do have that Nashville team up next. I don't think
- 40:56Speaker 1: Colorado's gonna overlook a home ESPN game against the back
- 40:59Speaker 1: to defending champs. I'm not saying they're going to overlook
- 41:02Speaker 1: them just because they want revenge over Nashville. I don't
- 41:06Speaker 1: think that's gonna be a thing. But but for Colorado here,
- 41:11Speaker 1: I mean, I don't like the spot.
- 41:14Speaker 2: Man, they're returning over from a road trip.
- 41:15Speaker 1: I always talk about how you can get distracted when
- 41:17Speaker 1: you return on from a road trip. Don't love it.
- 41:20Speaker 1: You got home life to get back to. So which
- 41:23Speaker 1: one of these teams.
- 41:23Speaker 2: Is in the worst spot? I don't know.
- 41:25Speaker 1: But Colorado's down for minus two fifty fives minus two
- 41:27Speaker 1: twenty eight on the money line, So the odds makers
- 41:31Speaker 1: are kind of indicating that you should be leaning towards
- 41:34Speaker 1: Florida here. I don't disagree, although it's a it's a
- 41:40Speaker 1: real difficult spot, dude, the totals at six and a half.
- 41:43Speaker 1: I would be leaning probably towards an over in this
- 41:46Speaker 1: game because you get one team returning on from a
- 41:49Speaker 1: road trip the other team.
- 41:50Speaker 2: You know, the defense could tie.
- 41:52Speaker 1: The defense tires out, I think worse than the offense
- 41:55Speaker 1: does in my opinion. Still, so I'll have to keep
- 41:57Speaker 1: an eye on how I'm doing on these total predictions.
- 42:00Speaker 1: But yeah, I would probably look towards an over in
- 42:03Speaker 1: that game. And then we have my final play of
- 42:07Speaker 1: the hockey slate. I do have an NBA play as well. Yeah,
- 42:14Speaker 1: we're gonna go with the Vancouver Canucks on the money
- 42:17Speaker 1: line here at home. I know they're a bad team
- 42:20Speaker 1: this year, but Buffalo is also a pretty bad team,
- 42:23Speaker 1: So we're gonna fade Buffalo here. Buffalo is pretty ugly
- 42:26Speaker 1: on the road, man, I mean, say what you will.
- 42:28Speaker 1: Vancouver's bat at home. I know four nine and one,
- 42:31Speaker 1: but Buffalo's three nine and two road record is not
- 42:34Speaker 1: exactly good. And Buffalo's coming up a win over Edmonton
- 42:38Speaker 1: so in overtime two days ago, and now they're playing
- 42:41Speaker 1: a third game in four days, all in different cities.
- 42:43Speaker 1: They're getting towards the end of a long road trip.
- 42:46Speaker 1: I don't like the spot. Man, that was a big win.
- 42:48Speaker 1: I think that was kind of when you're a team
- 42:50Speaker 1: like Buffalo, that's a big deal. When you beat the
- 42:52Speaker 1: conference champs from last yearven though they were in the
- 42:54Speaker 1: opposite conference, but the conference champs in the last two years,
- 42:59Speaker 1: huge win.
- 42:59Speaker 2: Buffalo was obviously a big underdog in that game too.
- 43:02Speaker 1: Though ESPN no longer shows you the betting like the
- 43:06Speaker 1: what the betting odds were on those They show you
- 43:08Speaker 1: the betting odds on the upcoming games. But I hate it, man,
- 43:12Speaker 1: they need to interface the DraftKings and pull up that history.
- 43:16Speaker 2: They can't like ESPN BET.
- 43:17Speaker 1: I guess used to like track the betting history, but
- 43:20Speaker 1: now ESPN bet is bought out by the Score, which,
- 43:23Speaker 1: by the way, I actually use the Score app on
- 43:26Speaker 1: my phone.
- 43:26Speaker 2: It's it's the best scoreboard app in my opinion.
- 43:28Speaker 1: I have a widget on one of my home screens
- 43:31Speaker 1: so I can just see the scores and scroll through them,
- 43:33Speaker 1: you know what I mean. I like the Score, but
- 43:35Speaker 1: they bought ESPN BET, so I think it's now the
- 43:38Speaker 1: Score is the name of the the book now, which
- 43:43Speaker 1: that is one that's available in Massachusetts. I'm pretty sure
- 43:48Speaker 1: ESPN BET was, but I haven't looked at the at
- 43:50Speaker 1: the new the score sports work, which I should because
- 43:53Speaker 1: you should have every option available. So I definitely got
- 43:56Speaker 1: to get on that. But anyway, I don't know what
- 44:00Speaker 1: I was saying. Yeah, for Buffalo, they were definitely a
- 44:02Speaker 1: big underdog in that game, they pulled off the upset.
- 44:05Speaker 1: Now third game in four D is all in different cities.
- 44:08Speaker 1: I don't love it, man, especially they're playing a Vancouver team.
- 44:11Speaker 1: It's just not been good this year, and I think
- 44:13Speaker 1: Vancouver is gonna be in the much better spot.
- 44:15Speaker 2: And they're gonna be pretty angry because they.
- 44:17Speaker 1: Just got shut out at home and they haven't played
- 44:19Speaker 1: since Monday, so they have the way better travel spot.
- 44:22Speaker 1: They're just staying at home and they've had multiple days off,
- 44:25Speaker 1: which I think is a good thing when you're coming
- 44:27Speaker 1: off a shutout loss. And I talk about all this.
- 44:30Speaker 1: You know in hockey, when teams lose by four plus goals.
- 44:33Speaker 1: I don't know if it's specifically at home, but they
- 44:36Speaker 1: have a good percentage of bouncing back in the next game,
- 44:39Speaker 1: So I like that too. Staying at home, I think
- 44:41Speaker 1: you're gonna see an angry team here. You're gonna see
- 44:44Speaker 1: a better performance out of Vancouver here.
- 44:45Speaker 2: Man.
- 44:46Speaker 1: Again, multiple days off can help like burn that losing momentum,
- 44:50Speaker 1: give you some more focus here.
- 44:52Speaker 2: So yeah, I like Vancouver here.
- 44:53Speaker 1: So that's the other hockey play who it's my mistake
- 44:57Speaker 1: with these stupid banners. With the timers here there it
- 45:00Speaker 1: is Vancouver moneyline. You can get them at a really
- 45:03Speaker 1: cheap price here. Buffalo is up for minus one oh
- 45:05Speaker 1: five to minus one.
- 45:06Speaker 2: Thirteen on the money line.
- 45:10Speaker 1: So getting a cheap price with Vancouver there, almost getting
- 45:13Speaker 1: them at an underdog price. Not a bad deal to
- 45:16Speaker 1: me there. And that is the last game on the
- 45:19Speaker 1: hockey board as well. All right, we have NBA. We're
- 45:22Speaker 1: not in the NBA Cup play here, but we have
- 45:24Speaker 1: four NBA games today and this is These are the
- 45:29Speaker 1: types of games where you got to look at the
- 45:31Speaker 1: fact that these teams are all coming off big layoffs,
- 45:34Speaker 1: some bigger than others. But I talk about this like
- 45:37Speaker 1: I handicapped this like a buy in football, where when
- 45:40Speaker 1: a team has a long layoff, it's like it stops
- 45:43Speaker 1: whatever momentum you just had. Right, So when you're losing,
- 45:47Speaker 1: having a good layoff is good because it breaks that
- 45:49Speaker 1: losing momentum and usually fix things and come in with focus.
- 45:52Speaker 2: When you're winning.
- 45:54Speaker 1: Going into the layoff, it's bad because you want to
- 45:56Speaker 1: just keep playing because everything's working, so in that break
- 46:00Speaker 1: really have anything to work on, and it slows your momentum.
- 46:03Speaker 1: So something to keep in mind. Here we have the
- 46:05Speaker 1: Clippers at Houston in the first game. Yeah, I mean,
- 46:09Speaker 1: this is this Clippers team. I mean, they're massively underperforming.
- 46:14Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with the Clippers other
- 46:17Speaker 1: than it just seems to be James Harden just try
- 46:20Speaker 1: to do everything. But the fact that the Clippers have
- 46:23Speaker 1: been off sets Saturday, I do think that's helpful because
- 46:27Speaker 1: they've been losing a bunch of games. They've only won
- 46:29Speaker 1: one game since November twenty third, So I think having
- 46:34Speaker 1: a lot of time off can actually help a team.
- 46:35Speaker 1: It's just in a massive slide like this, So maybe.
- 46:39Speaker 2: You will get more focus out of the Clippers here.
- 46:41Speaker 1: They should be focused playing one of the best teams
- 46:44Speaker 1: in the West, the Rockets. Rockets have been off for
- 46:47Speaker 1: the same amount of time and they took a somewhat
- 46:50Speaker 1: ugly loss as well, losing to Dallas, So you know,
- 46:54Speaker 1: that might help them a little bit.
- 46:55Speaker 2: As well, but with La doing.
- 46:56Speaker 1: So bad the Clippers, I think the time off helps
- 46:59Speaker 1: them more, or in Houston might be looking ahead a
- 47:02Speaker 1: little bit because they do have Denver up next. Denver
- 47:04Speaker 1: did beat them at home the last time. Denver is,
- 47:07Speaker 1: of course one of the better teams in one of
- 47:09Speaker 1: the best teams in the West as well, so slightly
- 47:12Speaker 1: in towards taking the points of the Clippers for me
- 47:14Speaker 1: in this one, Denver, excuse me, Rockets have eighty seven
- 47:19Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety nine percent of the cash on them.
- 47:21Speaker 1: They're up to nine and a half for eight and
- 47:23Speaker 1: a half, but they're gonna wind up in the public side. Yeah,
- 47:25Speaker 1: my opinion here would be to take the points. If
- 47:29Speaker 1: I was gonna play it the game, I am gonna
- 47:31Speaker 1: give out a play on which let me fix the stupid.
- 47:34Speaker 2: Timer on the banner here, which I always have to do.
- 47:36Speaker 1: Now, the final best bet of the day, we are
- 47:42Speaker 1: going against my boss and Saltics. We're gonna take the
- 47:45Speaker 1: Milwaukee Bucks plus the nine. Giannis is still out, but
- 47:50Speaker 1: I don't really want to play the Bucks in a
- 47:52Speaker 1: situation where he's coming back, Like you know what I mean,
- 47:54Speaker 1: the reverse injured player spot where you're gonna be getting
- 47:57Speaker 1: less value on Milwaukee and probably getting some value going
- 48:00Speaker 1: the other way.
- 48:00Speaker 2: But I like Milwaukee in this spot. Man.
- 48:04Speaker 1: Hopefully my gauge on the Celtics is recalibrated because I
- 48:09Speaker 1: was way off about that game against Washington, but and
- 48:11Speaker 1: this spot looks kind of similar. Now the Celtics have
- 48:14Speaker 1: been off sed Sunday, and again, as I just mentioned,
- 48:17Speaker 1: if you're on a roll at the Celtics are they
- 48:19Speaker 1: won five games in a row, you do not want
- 48:22Speaker 1: to stop playing because it can hurt your momentum.
- 48:24Speaker 2: Man.
- 48:24Speaker 1: And now not only are they coming off a win
- 48:27Speaker 1: over LA, but actually we got the Celtics wrong against
- 48:29Speaker 1: Toronto too. They beat LA, which is a huge win,
- 48:32Speaker 1: even though that was without Luca and Lebron. Celtics Lakers hated,
- 48:37Speaker 1: you know, heated rivalry, hated rivals. Whatever, huge win. They
- 48:41Speaker 1: went up to Toronto and they still got the win.
- 48:43Speaker 1: And the one thing I am worried about a little
- 48:46Speaker 1: bit is that that final score was misleading because the
- 48:48Speaker 1: Celtics they had a massive lead in that game, and
- 48:51Speaker 1: as the Celtics tend to do, they took their foot
- 48:54Speaker 1: off the gas.
- 48:55Speaker 2: But I think that does help us with this play here.
- 48:57Speaker 1: The Celtics tendency to get complacent when they have a
- 48:59Speaker 1: big take their foot off the guess the back door cover.
- 49:03Speaker 2: Is open when you know when a team does that.
- 49:06Speaker 1: So there is the chance that Milwaukee is able to
- 49:09Speaker 1: get back in the game and cover even if they're
- 49:11Speaker 1: down you know, by double digits here in this one,
- 49:16Speaker 1: because it happened with the Celtics. Toronto almost came back
- 49:18Speaker 1: and covered that number. But it was a big win
- 49:20Speaker 1: for the Celtics. Now they have time off, they could
- 49:23Speaker 1: disrupt their momentum. They got to play this Milwaukee team
- 49:26Speaker 1: that's without Yannis, it's below five hundred.
- 49:28Speaker 2: Are the Celtics really gonna pay attention to the to them?
- 49:31Speaker 1: When the Celtics then have Detroit, Detroit, Miami and Toronto
- 49:35Speaker 1: all upcoming, much much bigger games right now against teams
- 49:38Speaker 1: that all have winning records in the East. Detroit I
- 49:41Speaker 1: think was still the best record in the East, even
- 49:43Speaker 1: though yeah, the Celtics beat Detroit the last time, but
- 49:45Speaker 1: that's still a big game. I think this is a
- 49:48Speaker 1: sandwich spot plus a momentum killing amount of rest for
- 49:52Speaker 1: the Celtics here, whereas Milwaukee they've had even more rest.
- 49:56Speaker 2: They've been off.
- 49:56Speaker 1: It's Saturday, but they lost their last two games. They
- 50:00Speaker 1: did actually beat Detroit without Yiannis before that, so at
- 50:04Speaker 1: least there is precedent right now Milwaukee being able to
- 50:07Speaker 1: win against a good team without Yannas, so at least
- 50:10Speaker 1: there is that.
- 50:11Speaker 2: That was at home, which so is this.
- 50:14Speaker 1: But having this many days off I think will help
- 50:16Speaker 1: Milwaukee because they went into that time off on a
- 50:18Speaker 1: losing streak again, so they're gonna use it to fix things.
- 50:21Speaker 1: I think they're gonna show up here because their next
- 50:23Speaker 1: game is only against Brooklyn, So you got the Celtics
- 50:26Speaker 1: coming to town. You're gonna show up, man, You're gonna
- 50:28Speaker 1: be focused. Celtics probably overperforming a little bit too, although dude,
- 50:35Speaker 1: I mean you got to hand it to Joe Miszoula.
- 50:36Speaker 2: The Celtics, you know, they don't have the same core
- 50:39Speaker 2: really that they had last year.
- 50:40Speaker 1: I mean they still brown and white, very good players
- 50:43Speaker 1: with their role players are looking really good right now.
- 50:46Speaker 1: The Celtics have been extremely disciplined. They have like the
- 50:49Speaker 1: lowest turnover rate in the NBA, which the discipline has
- 50:53Speaker 1: been a problem for the Celtics in the past, but
- 50:55Speaker 1: this year it's been excellent.
- 50:57Speaker 2: So that's the reason why they have a good record
- 50:59Speaker 2: right now.
- 51:00Speaker 1: Much with the kind of ragtag roster that they have
- 51:04Speaker 1: right now. Celtics, I mean they're doing all right. I mean,
- 51:07Speaker 1: if they get Tatum back and they sneak into the
- 51:09Speaker 1: playoffs and he actually comes back and plays, things are
- 51:12Speaker 1: gonna get a little interesting.
- 51:15Speaker 2: So that is my hope as a Celtic fan. But
- 51:18Speaker 2: I do not like them in this game.
- 51:19Speaker 1: We're gonna take the points with Milwaukee here, Celtics, They're
- 51:23Speaker 1: gonna be public. They're out from seven and a half
- 51:24Speaker 1: to nine. The public will not be coming in on
- 51:26Speaker 1: the Bucks in this one. Eighty eight percent of the tickets,
- 51:29Speaker 1: ninety five percent of the cash for now in the Celtics.
- 51:31Speaker 1: But I'm like, whatever, just give us a better number,
- 51:34Speaker 1: slightly whatever, We'll take the extra point point and a
- 51:37Speaker 1: half Milwaukee plus the points. Then we have a Portland
- 51:42Speaker 1: at New Orleans. Uh, this is kind of an ugly game. Well,
- 51:47Speaker 1: any game involving New Orleans is gonna be ugly. But
- 51:49Speaker 1: Portland is finishing a road trip here. But they have
- 51:52Speaker 1: had a bunch of days off, so the time off
- 51:55Speaker 1: might help Portland because they went into the time off
- 51:57Speaker 1: off of a couple of losses. I really the ugly
- 52:00Speaker 1: one to Memphis in their last game. So Portland may
- 52:03Speaker 1: show up with more focus here coming out of that,
- 52:06Speaker 1: even though they do have a bigger game against Golden
- 52:08Speaker 1: State next.
- 52:09Speaker 2: But when you're losing, you're probably.
- 52:11Speaker 1: Gonna show up focus for the most part, especially after
- 52:13Speaker 1: having the extra time off to fix things. New Orleans
- 52:16Speaker 1: has a little bit less time off because they played
- 52:18Speaker 1: on Monday, but they still do have time off to
- 52:22Speaker 1: try to disrupt this long loss streak that they're on.
- 52:25Speaker 1: But I mean, basically their entire season is a long
- 52:28Speaker 1: lost streak, though. But New Orleans played pretty tough against
- 52:31Speaker 1: San Antonio in that game of Monday, So I don't
- 52:34Speaker 1: love the spot as much for New Orleans here man
- 52:37Speaker 1: less rest here. Portland is the better team, obviously, but
- 52:41Speaker 1: the money's coming in towards the Pelicans, And I'm not
- 52:43Speaker 1: really sure.
- 52:43Speaker 2: I agree with that.
- 52:45Speaker 1: Trailblazers are down from five and a half to four
- 52:47Speaker 1: and a half here, seventy one percent of the tickets
- 52:48Speaker 1: on them, seventy seven percent of the casual on the Pelicans.
- 52:53Speaker 2: I don't really think I agree. I think if I
- 52:55Speaker 2: was gonna play it.
- 52:55Speaker 1: I would look towards Portland, but I mean, obviously I
- 52:57Speaker 1: don't want to do it, but I'm just making sure
- 53:00Speaker 1: Holiday is not back yet.
- 53:03Speaker 2: True.
- 53:03Speaker 1: Holiday is still out for the Trailblazer's here, Zion is out.
- 53:07Speaker 1: What else is new until after Christmas for New Orleans.
- 53:11Speaker 1: He can never stay healthy, man, It's it sucks because
- 53:13Speaker 1: I think he could have had a decent career and
- 53:16Speaker 1: injuries have just completely derailed it.
- 53:18Speaker 2: And he hasn't looked good when he has played. I
- 53:20Speaker 2: don't know, man. And then we have Nuggets Kings to
- 53:25Speaker 2: finish it off.
- 53:25Speaker 1: The Nuggets are up from nine to ten, ninety eight
- 53:27Speaker 1: percent of the tickets eighty two percent of the cash
- 53:29Speaker 1: on them. Whoops, So the Nuggets are public with less
- 53:34Speaker 1: of the money coming in on them. But I'm not
- 53:37Speaker 1: sure that I would disagree with laying the points with
- 53:39Speaker 1: the Nuggets here though.
- 53:40Speaker 2: Now they do have the look ahead.
- 53:42Speaker 1: Like I said that Praye Houston next, so maybe that's
- 53:45Speaker 1: a bit of a concern the Nuggets.
- 53:48Speaker 2: Well, actually, wait, I don't remember.
- 53:50Speaker 1: What my thoughts were, because I definitely looked at this
- 53:51Speaker 1: game earlier, but I think I forgot what I thought
- 53:53Speaker 1: about it on the Nuggets. They've had time off the
- 53:57Speaker 1: last plan on Sunday, and they went into.
- 53:59Speaker 2: The break with three wins in a row.
- 54:00Speaker 1: So it is kind of a bad spot for the
- 54:02Speaker 1: Nuggets and that it might halt their momentum.
- 54:04Speaker 2: So I don't know what I was thinking.
- 54:06Speaker 1: They're in a momentum killing spot potentially here having rest,
- 54:09Speaker 1: coming into it with a bunch of wins in a row,
- 54:12Speaker 1: and they have Houston up next, which is a bigger game.
- 54:15Speaker 1: But they did lose to Sacramento on their home floor
- 54:18Speaker 1: the last time, so they might remember that and have
- 54:20Speaker 1: some adjustments to make for that reason. But I actually
- 54:23Speaker 1: think I do lean to Sacramento in this one, now
- 54:25Speaker 1: that I'm thinking about it again. Do My mind is
- 54:28Speaker 1: just totally out of it right now. I apologize. Sacramento
- 54:31Speaker 1: is returning home from a road trip. Maybe that's what
- 54:33Speaker 1: I was thinking of. They were on the roads. It's Wednesday,
- 54:35Speaker 1: the third, they went to Houston, Miami, and Indiana. Returning
- 54:39Speaker 1: home from a road trip, it is a difficult spot
- 54:42Speaker 1: to return home from the road. You can be a
- 54:44Speaker 1: bit distracted. They've had multiple days off, but again on
- 54:46Speaker 1: a return home, I think that that adds to the
- 54:50Speaker 1: distraction more than it helps. I don't really think they're
- 54:53Speaker 1: gonna overlook a team that's as good as the Nuggets, though,
- 54:58Speaker 1: so I mean, I guess the lean would still be
- 55:00Speaker 1: towards taking the points of the Kings, but of course
- 55:02Speaker 1: I am avoiding that game, and then we do have
- 55:05Speaker 1: the NFL game to finish this off. It is a
- 55:08Speaker 1: divisional matchup between the Falcons and the Buccaneers, two teams
- 55:13Speaker 1: that are not looking great right now. This division is terrible.
- 55:18Speaker 1: It's still the worst division in football in my opinion.
- 55:22Speaker 2: I think most people would probably agree with that.
- 55:24Speaker 1: Unless people are gonna try to say it's the NFC North,
- 55:27Speaker 1: But I still just don't really think so. I mean
- 55:30Speaker 1: NFC or AFC Nord. Not NFC North is good. AFC
- 55:34Speaker 1: North is what I meant, but AFC North. You know,
- 55:37Speaker 1: I still think Baltimore is not as bad as they look,
- 55:39Speaker 1: and Joe Burrow is back in the mix there, so
- 55:42Speaker 1: I don't know. But the Buccaneers in this game, they're
- 55:45Speaker 1: down from five and a half to four, and I
- 55:46Speaker 1: have not really.
- 55:47Speaker 2: A significant move there.
- 55:49Speaker 1: Seventy percent of tickets, seventy seven percent of the cash
- 55:51Speaker 1: on them total seventy two percent of tickets and fifty
- 55:55Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on the over total drops.
- 55:57Speaker 2: Slightly down to forty four.
- 56:01Speaker 1: I don't really have a good opinion on the total
- 56:02Speaker 1: at all, although on a Thursday I always talk about
- 56:05Speaker 1: how usually the home team has a little bit of
- 56:07Speaker 1: an edge on Thursday because they're staying at home, they're
- 56:10Speaker 1: in familiar territory, they don't have to travel sometimes, right,
- 56:14Speaker 1: so Tampa Bay, I believe they're staying at home here,
- 56:16Speaker 1: so Tampa doesn't even have to travel, so that that
- 56:19Speaker 1: is an edge on a short turnaround here. But when
- 56:22Speaker 1: it's a divisional game, it's a little bit less of
- 56:24Speaker 1: an edge because the road team plays in this venue
- 56:27Speaker 1: every year, so the road team is used to it too.
- 56:30Speaker 1: The teams know each other, so the road team usually
- 56:33Speaker 1: has an easier time to prepare for a divisional game
- 56:36Speaker 1: like this on the short turnaround. So I don't think
- 56:40Speaker 1: it's that bad of a spot for either team. When
- 56:42Speaker 1: I first my first analysis of this game was actually
- 56:44Speaker 1: that both teams were going to be focused here, and
- 56:47Speaker 1: the Falcons are only traveling from Atlanta, so their travel
- 56:50Speaker 1: spots not that bad either.
- 56:53Speaker 2: So I looked at this game first and I was like, well,
- 56:55Speaker 2: both teams are kind of in bounced back spots here
- 56:57Speaker 2: after last week.
- 56:58Speaker 1: But then you know, I'm kind of thinking about it
- 57:00Speaker 1: or I kind of started leaning one way in this game,
- 57:03Speaker 1: which I'll talk about in a second. But what else
- 57:06Speaker 1: are they gonna say? Oh yeah, And as far as
- 57:08Speaker 1: the total Thursday Night games, a lot of times when teams,
- 57:13Speaker 1: you know, aren't familiar with each other and you don't
- 57:15Speaker 1: have as much prep time. If the teams aren't familiar
- 57:17Speaker 1: with each other, sometimes the defenses don't know what to
- 57:20Speaker 1: do because they're not familiar with these offenses. So sometimes
- 57:23Speaker 1: you see those games go over a little bit more often.
- 57:26Speaker 1: But in a divisional game, leg I just referred to,
- 57:29Speaker 1: the teams know each other and they know each other's tendency.
- 57:31Speaker 1: So in a divisional game on the short turnaround time,
- 57:35Speaker 1: I think maybe the under does kind of make more
- 57:38Speaker 1: sense when it's a divisional game because the teams are
- 57:40Speaker 1: familiar with each other. Don't really have a strong opinion
- 57:42Speaker 1: there though, Possum Mitch, thanks for the for the retweet.
- 57:47Speaker 1: Man all right, now, as far as the situation Atlanta,
- 57:52Speaker 1: I mean, they got absolutely embarrassed in their last game.
- 57:55Speaker 1: They're pretty much a dead team at this point, losing
- 57:59Speaker 1: thirty seven and at home to Seattle totally embarrassing. Seattle
- 58:03Speaker 1: definitely outgained them in the game, but it was worse
- 58:05Speaker 1: than it looked on the scoreboard, at least because Atlanta,
- 58:08Speaker 1: I believe, had three turnovers as well, so they lost
- 58:12Speaker 1: the turnover batt Again, no team is as bad as
- 58:14Speaker 1: they look in their worst game, and that was real ugly,
- 58:17Speaker 1: So I think Atlanta.
- 58:18Speaker 2: Will show up with some focus. Now.
- 58:20Speaker 1: I talk about when a team is not going anywhere
- 58:22Speaker 1: on the season, which is the case with Atlanta. Now,
- 58:26Speaker 1: the types of games they get up for are a
- 58:28Speaker 1: divisional game, especially where they can spoil the other team's season,
- 58:33Speaker 1: and they could do that here because Tampa could lose
- 58:35Speaker 1: the division and not even make the playoffs. Man, so
- 58:38Speaker 1: Atlanta's probably sick of seeing Tampa Bay win the division
- 58:41Speaker 1: every year. So probably Atlanta does want to show up
- 58:44Speaker 1: and try to spoil their season and get Carolina in instead.
- 58:49Speaker 1: Even though Atlanta lost to Carolina twice, I think Atlanta
- 58:52Speaker 1: probably dislikes Tampa Bay a little bit more now. This
- 58:56Speaker 1: is also one of those second divisional matchups where the
- 58:58Speaker 1: home team lost the first game. That was that first
- 59:01Speaker 1: game of the season where I thought Atlanta absolutely should
- 59:04Speaker 1: have won that game. Atlanta actually outgained Tampa Bay by
- 59:07Speaker 1: like over one hundred yards in that game. They should
- 59:10Speaker 1: have won, and it came down to some late fluky
- 59:13Speaker 1: plays there where they lost the game and yung Waiku
- 59:15Speaker 1: had that miss and then they kicked him off the
- 59:17Speaker 1: team and now he's looking bad for the Giants too.
- 59:21Speaker 2: So when you have a team lose.
- 59:23Speaker 1: The first divisional matchup at home and then in the
- 59:26Speaker 1: second divisional matchup they're an underdog on the road, they
- 59:28Speaker 1: are usually a good way to look because they just
- 59:31Speaker 1: have a little bit more motivation and they're getting points
- 59:33Speaker 1: there and the other team, if you're Tampa, well you
- 59:36Speaker 1: beat Atlanta already, right, so you don't really have to
- 59:39Speaker 1: work on that much.
- 59:40Speaker 2: You don't have as much to fix.
- 59:42Speaker 1: And maybe Tampa takes Atlanta lightly because when Tampa beat
- 59:45Speaker 1: them before, not only was it at Atlanta, but Pennix
- 59:48Speaker 1: was the starter then and now we're looking at Kirk Cousins,
- 59:51Speaker 1: who really has not been that good. He looked like
- 59:55Speaker 1: he was improving and then he was bad last week.
- 59:57Speaker 1: So Tampa's probably the This is probably gonna be easy,
- 1:00:02Speaker 1: although my only issue is that Tampa might not be
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: of that mindset because they did also lose this past
- 1:00:09Speaker 1: week pretty embarrassingly as an over a touchdown favored at home,
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: they lost to New Orleans. New Orleans was in one
- 1:00:16Speaker 1: of those spots where New Orleans had lost the first
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: divisional matchup at home, so similar to this, New Orleans
- 1:00:23Speaker 1: had lost at home against Tampa Bay, and they came
- 1:00:26Speaker 1: with us some adjustments that they actually beat Tampa Bay
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: last week.
- 1:00:30Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield seems to be dropping off to it.
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: I don't know if it has to do with the injury,
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: but I've always thought the Mayfield is not quite as
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: good as people think that he is, so I don't know.
- 1:00:39Speaker 2: He seems to be sliding right now.
- 1:00:41Speaker 1: And this Atlanta team, even though I thought their defense
- 1:00:44Speaker 1: would look better last week, they just couldn't get off.
- 1:00:47Speaker 2: The field last week. Man, But this Atlanta defense isn't
- 1:00:49Speaker 2: that bad. They can blitz.
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: They are decent as an underdog Atlanta because they run
- 1:00:54Speaker 1: the football. I think they're still without Drake London, which
- 1:00:57Speaker 1: I know is going to make their passing attack, but
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: they still have a good rushing attack and they blitz.
- 1:01:03Speaker 2: So there is all that.
- 1:01:05Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I'm gonna lean towards taking the points
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: of Atlanta and that one, even though both teams I
- 1:01:09Speaker 1: think should show up focus, but Tampa looks like they're
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: in kind of a regression spiral. Again, We're looking at
- 1:01:16Speaker 1: one of the few games that the Falcons have remaining
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: where they will be motivated.
- 1:01:19Speaker 2: I assume.
- 1:01:22Speaker 1: I think their loss was actually uglier, even though lost
- 1:01:24Speaker 1: to New Orleans is ugly, but losing thirty seven to
- 1:01:27Speaker 1: nine at home is debatably even uglier, even though it
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: was to a pretty good Seahawk team. But yeah, I
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: expect both teams to look better in this game, but
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: I think I think it'll be a close game. So
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: I think the Falcons will be in the game, and
- 1:01:41Speaker 1: I think it'll be a close finish with the Falcons
- 1:01:44Speaker 1: at least covering the number there. But I'm not gonna
- 1:01:47Speaker 1: play it, and that's gonna do it. Man.
- 1:01:49Speaker 2: That's the That is the board for today. Thanks for
- 1:01:54Speaker 2: hanging out, everybody.
- 1:01:54Speaker 1: The players say, our college basketball Iowa plus the points
- 1:01:58Speaker 1: fading Iowa State and when I think is a massive
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: letdown spot and hopefully the Ben McCollum factor could come
- 1:02:05Speaker 1: in and they could slow that game down. NHL, we
- 1:02:07Speaker 1: got the Blues on the money line. We're gonna have
- 1:02:09Speaker 1: the Blues today. We're gonna be singing the Blues, probably
- 1:02:13Speaker 1: Vancouver Cannucks moneyline.
- 1:02:15Speaker 2: And then NBA, we're gonna be.
- 1:02:17Speaker 1: On the Milwaukee Bucks, not the Tampa Bay Bucks and
- 1:02:21Speaker 1: not the Vancouver cun Knucks, but the Milwaukee Bucks.
- 1:02:24Speaker 2: Plus nine. That's gonna do it.
- 1:02:26Speaker 1: Learn it tone on Twitter, Learn it tone on Instagram,
- 1:02:29Speaker 1: Like subscribe here, boost the YouTube, you know, leave me
- 1:02:33Speaker 1: good comments, good replies, et cetera. We're on audio as well.
- 1:02:38Speaker 1: We actually had a big day on audio the day
- 1:02:41Speaker 1: that I released the college football bracket and Bowl special
- 1:02:45Speaker 1: that did really well on audio. For some reason, I
- 1:02:49Speaker 1: released it on Monday to audio. But yeah, go over there.
- 1:02:53Speaker 1: It's on Apple and Spotify. Give me a good review
- 1:02:55Speaker 1: over there. That helps as well. Listening helps me out
- 1:02:58Speaker 1: over there. Covering you my yuke channel on YouTube, so
- 1:03:01Speaker 1: you can check that out. Patreon dot com, slash learn
- 1:03:04Speaker 1: to toad. You can get bonus content Yuke content, bonus
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: feed and requests, which you know, I keep apologizing I'm
- 1:03:13Speaker 1: not on top of those requests right now, but I'm
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: sick right now.
- 1:03:16Speaker 2: I'm in the middle of, you know, the wanted to
- 1:03:18Speaker 2: do the Christmas covers.
- 1:03:20Speaker 1: We'll see, man, uh gotta get at least a few
- 1:03:23Speaker 1: more Christmas covers done too for the season. And then
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: check out the Loser Cast, which we did on Tuesday night.
- 1:03:31Speaker 2: We did episode two.
- 1:03:32Speaker 1: Had some fun there, man, that's on the loser Cast
- 1:03:35Speaker 1: channel now. I retweeted late and put up the poll
- 1:03:38Speaker 1: for this week, so you guys can go over there
- 1:03:40Speaker 1: and vote for the appropriate loser. Mine was the Australian
- 1:03:45Speaker 1: Home and Home Invader Home Intruders. If you want to,
- 1:03:48Speaker 1: if you want to try to boost my, uh my
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: guy in the poll, you could do that. I think
- 1:03:54Speaker 1: I'm gonna lose because again I don't pick the famous people.
- 1:03:57Speaker 2: Man.
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: These other dudes are picking famous people so they have
- 1:04:01Speaker 1: the upper hand in those polls. And then be on
- 1:04:04Speaker 1: the lookout for the Giants podcast I'm gonna do with
- 1:04:07Speaker 1: Ben Weir as well, the g spot, which we'll probably
- 1:04:10Speaker 1: be doing at least this weekend.
- 1:04:12Speaker 2: I think we're gonna start it. We'll see though. That's
- 1:04:14Speaker 2: gonna do it for now. Let's get some wins today. Man.
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: Hopefully I can absolve myself with this headache piece for now, guys,