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Which ETF Won Big With Trump Accounts? · Trillions

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news opener showans.
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Speaker 2: I'm Joel Webber and I'm America Auchnas.
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Speaker 3: We're on the other side of July fourth, which means
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Speaker 3: a America is two hundred and fifty years old. And
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Speaker 3: also there's a new investment account for Americans, yes, specifically
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Speaker 3: little Americans.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the unveiling of what is being called
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Speaker 2: Trump accounts. We've been on this for about a year.
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Speaker 2: You know, we read the legislation, we did some notes
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Speaker 2: on what that might mean, and essentially a little backstory
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Speaker 2: here is that there's a big problem in the US
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Speaker 2: where half the people own stocks and the other half
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Speaker 2: dozen and the ones that do tend to be way
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Speaker 2: witcher and so there's a wealth app So how do
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Speaker 2: you close that? Well, one idea is to get everybody
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Speaker 2: invested who doesn't own stocks, and that's what this does.
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Speaker 2: It gives you one thousand dollars at birth, and then
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Speaker 2: you can't touch it to you'r eighteen and along.
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Speaker 3: The way, one thousand dollars is free, free.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it just put right into your account, and you
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Speaker 2: can have your company or your family donate up to
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Speaker 2: five thousand a year and you also might see philanthropists
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Speaker 2: donate to the program. Michael Dell did this, So there's
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Speaker 2: a lot of potential here in my opinion, and what
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Speaker 2: it does is it's going to get We think at
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Speaker 2: least twenty eight percent of Americans who aren't in stocks
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Speaker 2: into stocks. So we're talking about a country that will
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Speaker 2: maybe have the vast majority of people in this stock market.
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Speaker 2: And so this is a new thing. We think about
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Speaker 2: twelve billion a year will be put into the market
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Speaker 2: via these Trump accounts to start. Over time, that number
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Speaker 2: will grow because the people will have them, will contribute,
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Speaker 2: and there'll be new people. So that number should grow
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Speaker 2: over the years and be like a prety good pipeline.
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Speaker 3: And when you say we this is Bloomberg intelligence, yes, research.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, because we didn't. We tried to make some concessions
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Speaker 2: for like how some people just maybe like off the
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Speaker 2: grid completely. Some people may not choose to contribute at
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Speaker 2: all and then only have that one thousand the whole time.
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Speaker 2: But even that one thousand over eighteen years could grow
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Speaker 2: if the market returns to eight, nine, ten percent a year.
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Speaker 3: So the reason that we're interested in Trump accounts and
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Speaker 3: are talking about them on trillions and the ETF is
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Speaker 3: in the middle of it. Which ETF is it? And
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Speaker 3: why is it so significant?
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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is really important. So SPYM is the ETF is.
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Speaker 2: The name of it is State Street, Spider Portfolio S
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Speaker 2: and P five hundred ETF. This thing really won the
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Speaker 2: jackpot here because the Treasury put a notice out saying
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Speaker 2: that the default ticker would be spy M. Now, the legislation,
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Speaker 2: which I read a year ago, said these accounts would
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Speaker 2: use index funds to track broad markets and have a
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Speaker 2: fee of less than ten basis points. So immediately we thought, Okay,
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Speaker 2: this is probably big for Blackrock and Vanguard and State
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Speaker 2: Street and this is a State Tree fund. But State
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Speaker 2: Street was like, you know, they've been out of the
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Speaker 2: big two for a while, so this is a big
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Speaker 2: win for them. Spy M is unique and noteworthy because
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Speaker 2: it is cheaper than VU and IVV, so it is
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Speaker 2: two basis points. I think that's why the Treasury picked it.
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Speaker 2: I don't think it was political. Somebody had brought up, well,
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Speaker 2: Larry Fink not have a good relationship with President Trump.
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Speaker 2: What about Vanguard? I don't know. I think all those
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Speaker 2: firms politic pretty well. I think the difference was just
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Speaker 2: that it's cheaper. And I also brought up like, well
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Speaker 2: two basis points versus three, but that's what is that?
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Speaker 2: Like a thirty three percent difference if you think about it,
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Speaker 2: especially if you're talking about billions of dollars, it can
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Speaker 2: add up. And so this is interesting because it's probably
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Speaker 2: going to get the majority of the money. Now, there
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Speaker 2: are four, no five other ETFs that you can use
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Speaker 2: if you like, switch ivv VTI which is the Vanguard
4:00
Speaker 2: Total Market, SPTM, which is the Space Street Total Market,
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Speaker 2: and I TOOP which is the I Shurst Total Market.
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Speaker 3: So he only and some mutual funds.
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Speaker 2: No, that's it, just ETFs, which is also a big
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Speaker 2: win for ETFs. I thought they might pick mutual funds,
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Speaker 2: but these ETFs are the big giant. You couldn't get
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Speaker 2: more vanilla. I mean, your your choices basically are between
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Speaker 2: two things. You want large caps or you want the
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Speaker 2: whole market, and all of them are you know, two, three,
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Speaker 2: four basis points. So this is as good of a
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Speaker 2: deal as you can get. So whoever designed this, honestly
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Speaker 2: they picked the best funds in my opinion. So SPYM
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Speaker 2: though being the default, is really I think the big
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Speaker 2: news here and that's why it is the ETF of
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Speaker 2: the moment because.
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Speaker 3: It is little known.
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Speaker 2: People don't know about it so much. I think they
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Speaker 2: know Spy. Spy was the first ETF. Everybody knows Spy,
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Speaker 2: and Spy ruled the world literally for about thirty two years.
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Speaker 2: It was king of E, but it got dethroned a
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Speaker 2: year ago by VU. Now VU is almost at a trillion.
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Speaker 2: Spy is now smaller than IVV and VU. So Spy's
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Speaker 2: kind of like an old legend, kind of slipping down
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Speaker 2: the ranks because it charges nine basis points. So what
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Speaker 2: did Stay Street.
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Speaker 3: Doing And there's a structural reason for you.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a unit trust, so it's kind of trapped
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Speaker 2: in this structure. And so what Stage Street did was
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Speaker 2: a move that many issuers do. They take their liquid
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Speaker 2: one and they keep that fee kind of higher, but
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Speaker 2: they launch a cheaper minime. So Spym is the sort
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Speaker 2: of like minime son of Spy.
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Speaker 3: And if you launched that ETF today, it would be Spym,
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Speaker 3: not Spot.
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Speaker 2: Yes, just like GLDM is the minime of GLD and
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Speaker 2: those ms, those minimes do really well because these investors
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Speaker 2: sniff out the lower fee. What's interesting about spym is
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Speaker 2: that it used to be called SPLG. It was a
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Speaker 2: large cap, low cost fun from State Street for about
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Speaker 2: four or five years, and nobody really cared to attract
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Speaker 2: think Good Morning Store index because in the end of
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Speaker 2: the day, people really want the sm P fie hundred.
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Speaker 2: That index has a lot of brand power. So what
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Speaker 2: Staate Street did because they were trying to like get
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Speaker 2: this thing going as it's like, let's switch the index
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Speaker 2: to S and P five hundred, that helped right off
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Speaker 2: the bat, so it got more flows after that. Then
6:15
Speaker 2: it said, why don't we lower the feet at two
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Speaker 2: to be cheaper than VU and IVV. Once it did that,
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Speaker 2: it was off for the races. So this thing has
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Speaker 2: been really having a moment over the past year. It's
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Speaker 2: now one hundred and fifty billion dollars, which is big.
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Speaker 2: And here's the other thing is I've been every week
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Speaker 2: on etfiq I look at the flows like religiously, and
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Speaker 2: I can't remember the last time WU wasn't leading in
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Speaker 2: year to date flows. I mean, it's like a fixture
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Speaker 2: on there. But for a couple of weeks earlier this year,
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Speaker 2: spy am was taking in more money and SPIM is
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Speaker 2: now a perennial number two or number three in that
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Speaker 2: year to date race. And so spy Am getting this
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Speaker 2: money is going to is going to really help. So
6:54
Speaker 2: it's kind of interesting. We thought IVV would be the
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Speaker 2: real competition for WOO going forward. Now got the son
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Speaker 2: of spy Am. It reminds me of that movie Princess
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Speaker 2: Bride when that guy goes, you killed my father, prepared
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Speaker 2: to die. So this is a real like Shakespearean drama
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Speaker 2: we have unfolding here and spy Am just got a
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Speaker 2: big boost on its way to try to avenge the
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Speaker 2: death of its dad.
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Speaker 3: Someone out there investment management may have six fingers. That
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Speaker 3: was the diego Monto.
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Speaker 2: By the way, I'm way too into this. At least
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Speaker 2: I can acknowledge that.
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Speaker 3: You're also you're also keen on the on the Trump accounts,
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Speaker 3: and I'm curious why. I mean a thing about the
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Speaker 3: portfolio options that people have. They've got five twenty nins,
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Speaker 3: you got custodial brokerage accounts, you got iras. All of
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Speaker 3: those can be tailored for kids. Trump accounts seem especially
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Speaker 3: tailor for kids. And there's been kind of a lukewarm
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Speaker 3: reception among financial advisors. So I'm curious why you're especially
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Speaker 3: keen on them. Yeah.
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Speaker 2: Well, first of all, anything with Trump's name is going
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Speaker 2: to have polar polarized politics. Some fortunate because I think
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Speaker 2: if you call them like xxx accounts and you weren't,
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Speaker 2: you could erase your mind and not tell you who
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Speaker 2: the president was. I think most people will be really
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Speaker 2: into it. I think I remember writing the Bogel Effect,
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Speaker 2: and at the end of the book, I came to
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Speaker 2: this conclusion that Bogel was so good for half the people,
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Speaker 2: but what about the other half? And at the end
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Speaker 2: of the book, I looked at some people who might
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Speaker 2: be carrying the Bogel torch, and one of those guys
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Speaker 2: was Tyrone Ross, who we've bet on the show, and
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Speaker 2: he came with this idea on his own a long
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Speaker 2: time ago. He thought everybody should be given a little
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Speaker 2: bit of money. He actually thought that when you're eighteen, though,
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Speaker 2: you should have to pass a financial literacy test to
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Speaker 2: get the money, which I think would be a better
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Speaker 2: move here too, But same idea, and that's how you
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Speaker 2: kind of get the Bogel effect to the rest of
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Speaker 2: the people. And this is obviously, I think part of
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Speaker 2: why there's a wealth gap because if you think about
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Speaker 2: all the monetary supply that's growing, one of the most
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Speaker 2: unwritten stories here is that when they grow monetary supply,
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Speaker 2: which has gone from eleven trillion to twenty two trillion
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Speaker 2: in the past ten years, a lot of that money
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Speaker 2: goes to asset owners, people who own stocks, cars, gold, whatever, houses, like,
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Speaker 2: everything goes up in value if you own stuff. But
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Speaker 2: if you're a renter and a low low income person
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Speaker 2: who's just like shopping paycheck to paycheck, you're just left
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Speaker 2: with the inflation of that monetary growth. You don't get
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Speaker 2: the assets to offset it. And so getting them in
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Speaker 2: the stock market will help close the wealth gap because
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Speaker 2: we're just going to live in this like monetary supply
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Speaker 2: growth regime probably for a long time. So I think
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Speaker 2: it's a good move if you're somebody who is like
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Speaker 2: worried about affordability. I mean, we're going to keep electing
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Speaker 2: like socialist politicians probably until they try to figure this
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Speaker 2: out through the market. So I think it's good because
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Speaker 2: it will also get people more educated about the market.
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Speaker 2: They can still use five twenty nine, but a lot
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Speaker 2: of people don't even know what those are. Like this
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Speaker 2: is getting to people who don't even like probably wouldn't
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Speaker 2: even know what that is. And so this will get
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Speaker 2: a lot more people educated about the stock market. But
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Speaker 2: there is there is something that this is going to
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Speaker 2: do that we haven't really thought of, which is generally
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Speaker 2: there's never been a country ever in history that's had
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Speaker 2: this many people own stocks, like at fifty five percent
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Speaker 2: right now, America is already number one by far. So
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Speaker 2: if we get to eighty five, ninety percent of the
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Speaker 2: country that owns stocks will be more than double any
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Speaker 2: other country. Most countries are like two to ten percent,
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Speaker 2: just like really wealthy people owned stocks. That's it. So
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Speaker 2: this is like a really interesting experiment where we're trying
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Speaker 2: to effectively case study replace social security in a way
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Speaker 2: with the stock market. And so it's going to be interesting.
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Speaker 2: I think it really changes a lot of how people
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Speaker 2: need to think about the government in the market.
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Speaker 3: Some numbers that stuck out to me. If you did
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Speaker 3: nothing else but take that one thousand dollars of free
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Speaker 3: money that the government gives you, it would grow to
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Speaker 3: thirty six hundred dollars by age eighteen, assuming seven percent
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Speaker 3: annual return, eighty seven thousand dollars by sixty five. If
10:55
Speaker 3: you did the five thousand dollars a year, which you mentioned,
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Speaker 3: by seventeen you'd be about two hundred thousand, and by
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Speaker 3: sixty five if you kept that going, about five million. Yeah.
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Speaker 3: So pretty interesting numbers for not that much intake. So
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Speaker 3: I'm curious it all. See starts with that thousand dollars
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Speaker 3: of seed money, which we're not capable of getting. Neither
11:21
Speaker 3: are our kids because they've aged out of it. Which
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Speaker 3: means you would you entertain having another kid just to
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Speaker 3: get a thousand dollars of free money? No, but I
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Speaker 3: would for your kid.
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Speaker 2: No, but I would for the new rules around paternity leave.
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Speaker 2: When I had my first kid, I had a week.
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Speaker 2: When I got my second kid, I had a month.
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Speaker 2: Now they give you six months, six months and one thousand.
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Speaker 3: Dollars if you're a primary caretaker. So well, primary caretaker.
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Speaker 2: Either way, it's it's a better deal now to have kids.
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Speaker 2: Let's just put it out way.
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Speaker 3: So the thousand dollars not enough.
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Speaker 2: I'm not changing diapers anymore. I think I'm over it.
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Speaker 3: Man.
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Speaker 2: But when you talk about the growth of that money,
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Speaker 2: even if you just put one thousand dollars in, it
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Speaker 2: grow to thirty six hundred and you just like did
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Speaker 2: nothing else, and you like, in spite of yourself, didn't
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Speaker 2: pay attention to anything. Just the knowledge that money can
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Speaker 2: grow without you lifting a finger is really powerful. I
12:15
Speaker 2: think this is why investing is so interesting to people
12:20
Speaker 2: who kind of are smart and have money. Is like, yeah,
12:23
Speaker 2: I'd rather my money work for me than have to
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Speaker 2: do all the work myself. I mean, that's a really
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Speaker 2: powerful concept. And the stock market people get confused. They
12:31
Speaker 2: think it's like this zero sum game where it's just like,
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Speaker 2: you know, a bunch of people at a casino table
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Speaker 2: all trading, and they think it's sort of like a
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Speaker 2: commodity or something where whoever just gets the better trader wins.
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Speaker 2: But honestly, the market itself grows because when you invest
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Speaker 2: in a company, you are investing in all the people
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Speaker 2: who wake up every day and create value with that company.
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Speaker 2: They create cash flow. The cash flow gets returned to
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Speaker 2: you in the form of dividends, so as an owner
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Speaker 2: you get paid. Or America, waking up and working every
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Speaker 2: day you get a piece of that action. And I
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Speaker 2: think that's hopefully a lot of this gets like educated,
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Speaker 2: because some of this is lost in high schools and
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Speaker 2: in middle schools. It's just about picking the winners. It
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Speaker 2: makes it like a casino. Don't even talk about ETFs
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Speaker 2: or mutual funds. God forbid. And so I think this
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Speaker 2: is an interesting way to talk about how like how money.
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Speaker 2: These stocks have an intrinsic value and your money works
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Speaker 2: for you and you get a piece of that growth.
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Speaker 2: And America has been really good at it. The only
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Speaker 2: thing about this that is really something to watch is
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Speaker 2: the stock market has been an incredible run. A lot
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Speaker 2: of these stocks have evaluations that's pretty close to where
13:43
Speaker 2: they peak. And now you're putting all these people in there,
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Speaker 2: in my opinion, and we have a note that we
13:50
Speaker 2: are going to hit hard for the rest of the year.
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Speaker 2: The stock market may be too big to fail, just
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Speaker 2: like the banking industry was in two thousand and eight.
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Speaker 2: Because now that everybody's in stocks and they're all voters,
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Speaker 2: So all the voters now are going to want the
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Speaker 2: stock market to be up. And how about this. The
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Speaker 2: top one percent of people own half of the stock market,
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Speaker 2: and they have all the power, those rich boomers, so
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Speaker 2: they don't want their money to go down either. So
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Speaker 2: you're going to have a situation where the most powerful
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Speaker 2: people and even the low income people have the same
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Speaker 2: goal don't let stocks go down. So I could see
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Speaker 2: a world where every time the market goes down, the
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Speaker 2: FED just buys equity ETFs to prop them up, just
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Speaker 2: like they did with bond ETFs and COVID. And this
14:30
Speaker 2: is not totally new. They do it in China and
14:32
Speaker 2: they did it in Japan. The government regularly just buys
14:35
Speaker 2: equity ETFs to sort of like stabilize the market and
14:38
Speaker 2: signal that it's there. And a lot of times that
14:40
Speaker 2: can help really from like really dark, long drawn out
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Speaker 2: bear markets. So we may be like in a brave
14:47
Speaker 2: new world with the stock market being like socialized.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, which is a little scary when you think about
14:52
Speaker 3: an asset. An equity is not supposed to be that
14:55
Speaker 3: it's a little risky inherently, right.
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Speaker 2: Totally, Like that's the whole point. As stock is supposed
15:00
Speaker 2: to be risky, bond is supposed to be a little
15:03
Speaker 2: more secure, but even those can be somewhat risky. And
15:05
Speaker 2: then obviously a money market fund would be like where
15:07
Speaker 2: you park cash. So this is going to be really interesting.
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Speaker 2: It seems like it would take some of the risk
15:14
Speaker 2: out of the stock market. The more it gets socialized,
15:17
Speaker 2: and the more the more a valuable role plays as
15:20
Speaker 2: America's retirement fund, would seem to make it less of
15:26
Speaker 2: a risk. But these are famous last words. You could
15:29
Speaker 2: also maybe have a scenario where the market goes down
15:31
Speaker 2: beyond what the government can help, and it's like some
15:33
Speaker 2: sort of like that's the ultimate.
15:36
Speaker 3: Yeah.
15:37
Speaker 2: So I'm not saying anything's like off the table here,
15:39
Speaker 2: but I just and I pulled my Twitter followers. I
15:43
Speaker 2: got a thousand people to answer this survey, which was
15:47
Speaker 2: how confident are you that the government or the Fed
15:51
Speaker 2: will come in and buy stocks via ETFs or somehow
15:55
Speaker 2: the next time the market goes down significantly, like over
15:58
Speaker 2: twenty five percent downturn. Half of the people said extremely confident,
16:02
Speaker 2: twenty five percent it's somewhat confident, and only twenty five
16:04
Speaker 2: percent said not confident at all. So three fourths of
16:07
Speaker 2: people are already kind of onto this.
16:09
Speaker 3: Of your followers, but okay, really true, that's true.
16:13
Speaker 2: Let's suggest it from my crypto people.
16:15
Speaker 3: Different mindset. Yeah, okay, so if well, no, no, no.
16:18
Speaker 2: Let me say, look in my defense, I look at
16:20
Speaker 2: the flows with like Vanguard ETFs and Black Rocky tfs.
16:23
Speaker 2: It is amazing, how immune and almost ignorant. Yeah, the
16:27
Speaker 2: flows are of like newsflow, like the columns and the
16:30
Speaker 2: headlines can be really beast keeps coming. Like in March
16:32
Speaker 2: the market was really bad. I mean the past two
16:34
Speaker 2: Marches have been really bad. Flows don't care. So I
16:36
Speaker 2: think like maybe investors sends it overtly or subconsciously, but
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Speaker 2: I do think that there's this feeling like it's just
16:43
Speaker 2: dumb to move your money out because you'll miss the next.
16:46
Speaker 3: Especially two basis point. Yeah, so okay, if we come
16:50
Speaker 3: back to Trump accounts in a couple of months, maybe
16:52
Speaker 3: at the end of the year, what are you going
16:54
Speaker 3: to be looking for?
16:56
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm going to be looking for spy m flows
17:00
Speaker 2: me a lot about who's going and I can compare
17:01
Speaker 2: those ETFs, And then I'm also just look at it
17:04
Speaker 2: like I'm trying to talk to the government and get
17:06
Speaker 2: like any numbers I can because there's no real way
17:08
Speaker 2: to get data, but because they're going to probably distribute data.
17:11
Speaker 2: But the other thing I'm looking at is the philanthropists.
17:13
Speaker 2: Michael Dell has contributed a lot of money to these,
17:17
Speaker 2: and I believe there was a couple other I think
17:21
Speaker 2: Acman stepped up a little long story.
17:23
Speaker 3: Short and shot well SpaceX has been mentioned.
17:27
Speaker 2: Here's why this matters. There's a lot of really, really
17:32
Speaker 2: fabulously wealthy top point one percent people and they are
17:37
Speaker 2: genuinely concerned about the wealth gap, right, and they donate
17:41
Speaker 2: money to all these places. And one of their frustrations
17:43
Speaker 2: is when you donate it, especially to some like government
17:46
Speaker 2: body or something like, a lot of that money doesn't
17:49
Speaker 2: end up where it needs to go. Maybe ten percent
17:51
Speaker 2: goes to the actual place because there's so many people
17:54
Speaker 2: in the middle who take their share. This is straight
17:57
Speaker 2: up like one hundred percent of your money to lower
18:00
Speaker 2: income folks, and it puts it somewhere where it grows
18:03
Speaker 2: for them, and it helps lower the wealth gap. It's
18:06
Speaker 2: really clean way to give to be a philanthropist. If
18:10
Speaker 2: this snowball comes with a nice little tax benefit too,
18:13
Speaker 2: I think that's even better throwing the tax benefit. If
18:17
Speaker 2: we see like some of the bigger philanthropists following Michael Dell,
18:21
Speaker 2: this could be really exciting and it only would make
18:24
Speaker 2: the market probably have more legs because this is that
18:27
Speaker 2: would mean a lot more money coming in. So there's
18:30
Speaker 2: a lot going on here and I'm looking for more
18:32
Speaker 2: philanthropists to step up, see what and also the more
18:34
Speaker 2: philanthropists to step up, it helps depoliticize it a little too,
18:38
Speaker 2: because there'd be all kinds of people who are like,
18:39
Speaker 2: I don't care who's president. Is a good idea, but.
18:42
Speaker 3: Even philanthropres had enough to make you have another kid?
18:47
Speaker 2: No, I mean I would like I'm a godparent, and
18:51
Speaker 2: I wonder like if I had to take care, I'd
18:54
Speaker 2: be fine with that, but I don't know if I
18:55
Speaker 2: can go back to diapers yep. And the thing with
18:58
Speaker 2: kids under six or seven, and it's total manual labor.
19:01
Speaker 2: I mean you are literally like rolling around chasing after them.
19:05
Speaker 2: Then they get older, it's all emotional mental anguish. And
19:09
Speaker 2: I'm fine with that. Not not that I'm fine with it,
19:11
Speaker 2: but I just don't know if I can go back
19:12
Speaker 2: to the manual labor part of child being a parent.
19:15
Speaker 3: But it's a good way to end it right there,
19:18
Speaker 3: just your mental anguish. Thanks for listening to trillions. If
19:29
Speaker 3: you want to learn more about Trump accounts, go to
19:31
Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com slash money Until next time. You can
19:35
Speaker 3: find us on the Bloomberg Criminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
19:40
Speaker 3: or wherever else you like to listen, we'd love to hear.
19:43
Speaker 3: Fem put us Up on Social Brillions is produced by Magnet,
19:47
Speaker 3: Sindrickson and Keshav Pundia. Bye