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Episode 12 - 3/29/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 12 of the All Systems Go Sports
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Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Friday. Happy Easter weekend.
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Happy March Madness. Happy return of MLB, guys, We
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got a lot to get to on a big Friday.
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I have a six pack of sweats for you, including three big college
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basketball games here tonight After a good night last night,
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one bet in the NBA, one bet in the NHL, one bet in Major League
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Baseball and then to finish up the POD, I do have a biting play
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here for you in the Octagon with a fantastic low bets, higher
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dollar, sharp reverse line move system match on a fighter that
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has a massive youth advantage as well.
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So we'll finish up the Pod 6 pack today with the UFC plate
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for this weekend. Now looking back toward
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yesterday guys, we kept it rolling.
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Third straight winning day on the pod.
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You love to see it. That's the name of the game in
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sports betting. Try to stack as many winning
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days as you possibly can. And we did it again last night.
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3 and 2 + 0.66 units paced by a fantastic night in college
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basketball after a terrible round two where it seemed like
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every single favorite covered in one and the public had probably
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their best, you know March, brightest weekend that they're
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ever going to have in their life.
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We were waiting for aggression and we got it.
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A couple contrarian dogs came through for us.
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Talk about Illinois. A blueprint play there.
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Remember they were plus 2 1/2, got down to 1 1/2, even got down
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to one at some shops. Slight majority of bets.
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Iowa State Ken Palm had a what was it a one point game.
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So we took Illinois in the points and they won outright
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coming through for the team. And one that I really loved was
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Alabama because Alabama was a contrarian play that you taught
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that you you hear about, you talk about and you love to get
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down on everybody and their mother on UNC, 81% of bets.
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Yet we pretty much stayed, you know, 4 1/2 basically.
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And there's a really good Ken Palm edge in terms of Ken Palm
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had a two point win by Carolina. We were getting a super
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contrarian play with an inflated, you know, 4 1/2 off
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the four and it was only a two point, you know, discrepancy
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there and we're getting 4 1/2 in the most contrarian play almost
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of the entire March Madness. What happened?
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Bama battle. Bama won outright.
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So it was great to see a nice bounce back here in terms of
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these contrarian plays coming through in March Madness.
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And we also got a nice winner in the NHL.
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Although I did get a lot of DMS from you guys saying what's
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going on with that Saint Louis Blues line?
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I don't know. There wasn't a huge injury or
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anything, but the Blues got a good win for us five to three
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now, got maybe got a little lucky there because we did not
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beat the closing line. You know, I bet that at -135
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they end up closing like -120 -, 125 S The line moved against us,
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but we danced with the one who brung us, came through Saint
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Louis five to three wins. We got the Blues.
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Now, the only downside, and I'll never say there's a downside to
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a winning day. If you go 3 and 2 + 0.66 units,
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third straight winning day, boom, we're doing our part.
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But man, we could have gone 4:00 and 1:00 because if you watch
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that late night game between the Oakland A's and the Cleveland
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Guardians, we are sitting at under 7 1/2 with six runs going
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into the 9th inning, 6 to nothing with the with the
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Cleveland Guardians. So they don't need to score
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right? You know, just end the game, get
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the get our under. But Nope, they had to score two
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more meaningless runs in the ninth inning to get make it an 8
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nothing win instead of 6 nothing to kill our under 7 1/2.
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Then San Diego just teased us on that under 2 because I think
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there was what three runs scored going into like the 6th or the
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7th. So a couple rough ones there in
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baseball. But again that's that's going to
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happen. Baseball is going to be very
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frustrating. It's going to give you, you know
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great comeback wins. It's going to give you terrible
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bad beats. So unfortunately not the best
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start in MLB but overall we posted a winning day three and 2
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+ 0.66 units. So looking toward today guys and
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real quick I just want to say thank you all for tuning into
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the live stream myself and James Santori went live again
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yesterday had I think we're up to.
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I think it was not quite as big as the first one to get the high
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point was like 900 people tuned in, which was fantastic and
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we're breaking out. Games highlighted a bunch of
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nice wins. So it was great to see that live
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stream continue to grow as we promote rhythm and the all
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systems go pod and my buddy James Santor does a great job.
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He also has another another company he's working with called
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Juice Reel where basically it's it's a whole other thing, but
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it's another really cool analytics thing where it kind of
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tracks sharp betters. Then you look at the biggest
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system matches, you know all the sharps are on one side.
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So I got excited yesterday because I told him that I loved.
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I think it was he was either Illinois or Bama.
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Maybe it was Illinois, but he's like, yeah, juice real.
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I got all these guys who love Illinois as well.
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So good to see in general. But anyway, guys, let's get
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right to it. This is when sports betting's
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fun, when you're going for a fourth straight winning day
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going into a big weekend. So let's dive right in.
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Now, I want to start with little college hoops because we have
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four games tonight and I got 3 bets for you.
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So the first one on the board for me, Let's talk about Gonzaga
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and Purdue. Big match up here tonight, 7:39
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PM. This is your Midwest region.
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Gonzaga is the five seed. They just crushed Kansas in the
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second round, 8968. Meanwhile, Purdue, they're still
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alive. They haven't disappointed yet.
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They're the one seed. They just crushed Utah State one
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O 6 to 67. What have we seen across the
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market here? Well, I'm taking the points with
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Gonzaga now. The important thing here is I
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got a 5 1/2. Earlier today I wrote about this
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game in the Sharp report for vesan.com.
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I think it's important to get the hook.
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If not, some of these books are down to five.
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But shop around. Try to get Gonzaga plus 5 1/2.
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What I like about this one is sharp buyback on game day toward
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Gonzaga. Now we open this game Purdue -4
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1/2, the line got up to 5 1/2, but once it got to 5 1/2, it's
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when you started to see a lot of buyback on Gonzaga.
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So the fact that those 5 1/2's were there this morning and a
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lot of them are gone. Like I see two books still
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available with the hook on the 5 1/2.
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But the fact that we're getting a slight majority of bets.
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Purdue, they're getting nearly 60% of bets, but the lines
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coming back toward the zags, the contrarian side going, getting
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only around 40%. So the fact that those five and
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AFS are falling down to five, that's a good sign because that
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means game day movement. You know, limits get raised, big
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bets come in. It's kind of saying, hey, you
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know we've moved too, too much toward Purdue.
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Let's take the points with Gonzaga.
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Now. Gonzaga, I'm going to bank on
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being contrarian. I'm going to bank on a nice
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Kenpalm edge. Not a huge one but he has, you
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know, Purdue winning by 5:00. So that's really important.
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Why I wanted to stress the, you know, the only importance of
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getting the hook, the plus 5 1/2.
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But in terms of some advantages here, obviously Purdue was a
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really good team, but Gonzaga would match that dog who can
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score system match, which was the same system match that we
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had on both Illinois and Bama yesterday.
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So if you can put up points, you can keep pace, hopefully cover
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the number. Gonzaga's averaging nearly 85
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points per game. So again, keep pace.
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Backdoor cover dog who can score system match on Gonzaga Now
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Gonzaga also takes better care of the ball.
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They only are they ranked 22nd and fewest turnovers in college
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basketball versus 133 for Purdue.
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So I'm taking the points here again.
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Open early 4 1/2 up to five and half toward Purdue.
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But those five and halfs are falling.
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Ken Palm has a 5 point game dog who can score system match.
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We are contrarian here again. Try to get that 5 1/2 shop
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around. Have multiple outs.
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If you can only get the five right now, I'd wait it out.
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It is a 7:39 PM Eastern Time game, so maybe you can naturally
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see that thing get get back up to the hook.
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If you can't, I'll take the five.
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But again, shop around. Wait it out.
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Try to get the hook. I'm on zags contrarian with an
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inflated line opportunity here. I'm on Gonzaga.
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I got plus 5 1/2. Keep on cruising.
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Duke and Houston, 9:39 PM Eastern Time game S region match
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up. Duke is your four seed just
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crushed James Madison 93 to 55. Houston, the one seed barely got
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by A and MI was happy about that because I took the points today
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and M, but that was a 100 to 95 game in overtime.
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Just squeaked by that. A lot of guys foul out.
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So what we've seen across the market here, well, it's like an
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opportunity here with a good Ken Palm edge to take the Dookies.
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I'm going Dookies, guys, give me Duke.
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I got Duke at plus 4 1/2. Here's why I like it.
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Publix basically split down the middle 5050.
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We open this line at Houston -4. It's gotten up to 4 1/2, but
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every time it gets to 4 1/2, it usually gets juiced up back
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toward falling down to 4. You are seeing more shops at 4
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1/2 now early afternoon than you did this morning.
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So again, it has moved a little bit towards toward Houston here.
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What I like about the Dookies would be another dog who can
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score system match. They're averaging nearly 80
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points per game, but also a lot of advantages.
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Offensively, Duke has the better offensive efficiency, 5th in the
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country versus 14th for Houston, better effective field goal
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percentage, 55% versus 51%, better three-point shooting, 38%
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versus 35%, and better free throw shooting which is again
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could be huge in a tight game, 72% versus 69%.
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But here's where it gets good. Ken Palm has Houston winning by
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three. So if Ken Palm's got a
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three-point game and we are on Duke Dog who can score system
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match at plus 4 1/2, that smells like value to me guys.
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It's just like, you know, our games yesterday with Illinois
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and Alabama where you know we were getting, you know, point
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and a half. Illinois.
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Ken Palm had a one point game. We were getting 4 1/2 with Bama.
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Ken Palm had a two point game. We can now get 4 1/2 with Duke
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when Ken Palm has a three-point game.
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So I'm going to go with the Dookies here guys.
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Again, grab the hook. It's pretty much widely
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available, but we have a Ken Palm edge.
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Bunch of offensive advantages. Dog who can score system match,
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give me the Dookies plus 4 1/2 then last by the night.
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Hopefully you got this one a little bit earlier today.
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It's a good sign that it's moving in the direction that I
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targeted earlier today, but not as great if you haven't betted
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yet because the money line's a little bit, a little bit sharper
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now or a little bit more expensive.
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But Creighton and Tennessee, this is your Midwest region
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match up 9:59 PM Eastern Time tonight.
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So it's going to be a late 1 here, but we have Creighton
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coming in three seed. They just barely got by.
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Oregon broke by heart. I had Oregon in the points and
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they completely fell off the map there in overtime or double OT
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whatever it was. But they beat Oregon 86 to 73.
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You'll get Tennessee 26 and eight.
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They're the two seed just edge Texas 62 to 58.
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So what have we seen across the market here?
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Well, looks like a sharp line move toward Tennessee.
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Tennessee opened as low as a 2 1/2 point neutral site favorite.
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We've seen Tennessee get steamed up to -3 1/2.
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The 3 1/2 was pretty much all you know overnight, early
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morning. Now I'm seeing some fours pop.
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So some books are going up to Tennessee -4.
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Now what I like about the Vols is this is basically a 5050 line
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move. Tickets are split down the
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middle. Slight majority Tennessee like
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Tennessee's getting only like 53% of bets, but they're getting
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nearly 60% of money. And think of it this way, if
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you're only getting 53% bets basically split.
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Should you really move -2 1/2 all the way up to -3 1/2 or even
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-4? No, you shouldn't see move that
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big if the tickets are relatively even because
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theoretically in a vacuum the odds makers have no reason to
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adjust the spread because their action is balanced.
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But remember, there's difference between tickets and money.
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The action in terms of tickets might be balanced, but the
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action in terms of dollars looks like the bigger sharp wagers
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here on Tennessee. So based on that 5050 bet split,
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yet the lines going to the Vols tells me Vols are the sharp play
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here. The Vols have the better
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defensive efficiency, third in the country versus 23rd for
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Creighton. They have the better.
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What else? They have better offensive
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rebound percentage, 33% versus 26%.
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So hopefully they take advantage on the boards and they force
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turnovers quite a bit. Defensively, they ranked 68th in
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the country at forcing turnovers.
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Tenant Creighton really doesn't turn anybody over.
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They rank 362 in the country. So hopefully that defence is
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smothering for Tennessee and against Creighton now Ken Palm
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is Tennessee winning by two. So you could make the case that
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Creighton getting 4 now would be a Ken Palm edge.
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But I want to be with that sharp line move again.
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If this was like 90% of bets. Tennessee, they open two and
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after four and I can be super contrary with a Ken Palm edge.
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Creighton, you know, I could be intrigued by that, but the fact
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that it's 5050 and the line keeps going to Tennessee, that
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tells me this is a sharp Tennessee play and maybe they
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win by, you know, four or five or more and cover these numbers.
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So I want to be with that sharp line move.
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So I took Tennessee on the money line.
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You guys know me or if you don't know me by now, I like to money
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line short favorites. I'm not going to mess around,
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you know, Tennessee -3, 1/2, they win by 1-2 or three.
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I lose my bet. I went money line here.
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I got Tennessee at -165 on the money line.
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You're now looking at around -175, but I'm going Tennessee
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money line. I'm going Zags plus 5 1/2 and
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I'm going Dookies plus 4 1/2. Those are my 3 bets for tonight.
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Let's keep on cruising. I got a bet for you in the NHL.
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There's only one game tonight, so it's got to be Devils or
12:42
Buffalo Sabres. You know, side or total.
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Well, guess what it is? It's the Devils side.
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I'm going Devils in this match up tonight, guys. 7:00 game.
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Noticed a good sharp steam move toward the Devils.
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The Devils opened only -115 Rd. favorite at Buffalo.
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They're now steamed up all the way to -125 -, 130.
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So real good steam move tells me a lot of smart money came in on
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the Devils move that line in their favor.
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Now the Devils are only are getting 75% of bets, but 87% of
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the money, which is a pretty good low bets, higher dollars
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bet split again 75%. Got to remember NFL March
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Madness. I don't want it to be on the
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side of 75%, but hockey is a different animal here.
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It's a lower bet sport. There's not as much public.
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So I'm OK being on the 75% side because it's mostly wise guys.
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NHL bettors die hards who are betting probably the side of the
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Devils and that coincides with that line move toward the
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Devils. Now the Devils match a bunch of
13:35
good systems for me. If you are a favorite off a win
13:39
playing an opponent who missed the play offs the previous year,
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that system is 66% this season. If you look at a road favorite
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off a win, that's 64% this season.
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If you are Arrested Rd. Favorite, that's a little wonky,
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but Arrested Rd. Favorite?
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You made the playoffs, your opponent didn't, and you you
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have at least three days off between your last game in this
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game. That system is 35 and 1669% with
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an 11% ROI this year. Then I have a generic Rested.
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Which one is this? Rested Fave off Winner, Fave Off
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Win Opponent Missed post. That's another one that's like
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65%. Either way, I got a lot of
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matches here on the Devils. Now they are rested because they
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last played on the 26th. You have the Buffalo Sabres who
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last played on the 27th, so advantage there.
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I'm going to bank on the offense of the devil showing up
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hopefully 3.3 goals per game versus 3 for Buffalo.
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Better power play, 23% versus 16%.
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Better penalty kill, 81% versus 79%.
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Now home Rd. splits actually favored the Devils here.
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They've been pretty good on the road 1915 and two.
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Buffalo is losing at home, 1718 and one also recent performance.
14:47
The Devils? Here they are four and one in
14:49
their last five games. So then playing pretty decent.
14:52
Buffalo has hit a bit of a tailspin here.
14:54
The Buffalo Sabres are two and four in their last six games and
14:58
the goaltending match up. Here we have Devin Levi likely
15:01
to go for Buffalo. He's got a 3.16 goals against
15:05
898 save percentage. You'll get Jake Allen, who the
15:09
Devils picked up at the deadline. 3.39 goals against 900
15:12
save percentage. May not sound great, but
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actually in the month of March, Allen's been pretty good. 2.58
15:18
goals against average and Levi in the month of March as it goes
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against average of three. So even though the overall
15:24
numbers don't look great for Allen, he's played better since
15:27
he got traded to the Devils. Here also be the Devils.
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You know, you kind of have a motivational aspect here.
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The Devils are only, what, five points off of the second wild
15:37
card spot? So again, they have an uphill
15:40
battle here. They got a leap, a leapfrog, the
15:42
Islanders and the wings, but they're kind of knocking at the
15:45
door. So it's kind of that
15:46
motivational edge that we saw last night with the Blues who
15:49
are knocking at the door of the post season.
15:50
But the big one here, guys, is the steam move.
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The system matches. They're all popping for me on
15:55
the Devils. So I'm going New Jersey Devils
15:57
to win the damn game. I got the Devils at -128.
16:02
Couple more bets for you and then we'll finish up with some
16:04
biting a little bit of UFC. Let's go to the NBAI got one NBA
16:09
game tonight that caught my eye. It's a big slate.
16:11
There's twelve games overall, but this one jumped out to me,
16:14
The Clippers and the Magic. Now it's a very short favorite
16:17
toward the Clippers. Clippers were like -1 up to -2.
16:21
Looks like the line's moving a little bit toward the Clips, but
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I'm going to go over here. This one jumped out to me as a
16:26
low total over system match. Now this total for the Clippers
16:29
Magic game, it opened as low as I want to say 211.
16:35
I saw one book that was like 209 1/2.
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Either way, ever since this opener dropped it's been getting
16:40
hammered by over money. So we're up to 212 so I'm going
16:43
to go over 212 in this one. There's some two twelves and a
16:46
half 212 and a halfs out there. So shop around, get the 212.
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You'd hate to see it land on 212.
16:51
I'd rather push and over 212 and lose and over 212 1/2 but you
16:55
should be able to find that 212. Couple things to like about this
16:58
over though. One is the low total over system
17:01
match. I feel like I should be playing
17:02
this every time when the total is 215 or less.
17:07
The over is 61% this year, so in totals 215 or less.
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The over is 49 and 3261%. You also look at the Clippers In
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the month of March they've been one of the best over teams.
17:19
In March they're nine, five and one to the over.
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You also look at the Clippers in general #4 in terms of offensive
17:25
efficiency #18 defensive efficiency.
17:28
So we know they can put in a ton of points here, but they also
17:31
don't play great defence. Other supplementary angles here
17:34
to go over one would be a short spread.
17:36
So the Clippers only favoured by two or some shops are -2 1/2.
17:40
You know short spreads good for an over some back and forth
17:43
maybe get overtime so that's a good thing.
17:45
And then lastly would be a non conference over.
17:47
So you have the clips from the West, Magic are from the east.
17:50
When you see these two teams match up from two different
17:53
conferences, typically that's an edge to the over just because
17:56
you're not very familiar with your opponent.
17:58
You don't know them, you don't have to, don't know how to match
18:00
up, don't know how to defend. So it's usually a benefit to the
18:03
offense. But really the big one here for
18:05
me is that low total over system match.
18:07
Again, when the total is 215 or less, we're going over 61% of
18:11
the time and this one is on the rise.
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So I'm going to take a shot on this over Clippers and Magic
18:15
over 212. One more bat for you for today.
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And by the way guys, isn't it great to be able to hit on
18:22
NBANHL, college basketball and now baseball.
18:25
I mean we're we got it all here. This is you know walking through
18:28
Old Country Buffet picking off some you know, mashed potatoes
18:31
maybe some fried chicken and I'll get get every little food
18:34
group here. So we we love to had the ability
18:37
to shop around and really not have just one sport.
18:40
We can pick and choose and and find our greatest edge off of a
18:43
larger sample size SO1 bet Major League Baseball.
18:46
I'm and I'm kicking myself because I was I I wrote down the
18:49
Yankees over yesterday and I didn't play it because I saw
18:52
that 8 1/2 juiced up over it end up cashing as it actually closed
18:57
at 9:00 but it landed on 9. If you got over 8 1/2 you won.
19:00
But I ain't going to lose it today.
19:01
I'm going Yankees Houston over 9 today.
19:05
First thing I like about this over 9 is that we have kind of a
19:08
dog to fave juice movement from the over to the under.
19:11
So a lot of these books actually open nine juiced up under -115.
19:16
Now we flipped 9 / -, 115 or -120.
19:20
So it takes a lot of you know, sharp respected action coming in
19:23
to flip, you know that juice you know kind of liability.
19:26
So open liability under now it's flip liability over.
19:30
You know does it get to 9 1/2? Who knows maybe it is juiced up
19:33
pretty high in that regard. But I love the fact that we are
19:36
painted across the board juice movement over.
19:38
So every books liability over now great bet split on this over
19:42
the overs getting 68% of bets but 85% of the money so around
19:46
2/3 of bets but you know big much bigger share of the more
19:50
respected dollars are going over.
19:52
Now if we look at the pitching match up here Carlos Rodon going
19:56
for the Yankees. He got knocked around last year.
19:58
He got hurt. Had a bad year three and eight
20:00
6.85 ERA. Javier had a good record, one
20:04
loss last year. Christian Javier 10 and five be
20:07
an ERA of 4.56. Also, you look at the Houston
20:10
Astros. They usually rake against
20:12
lefties going up against a lefty here with Rodon.
20:14
So hopefully their bats really show up.
20:16
And again, Yankees bats with Soto.
20:18
Talk about a great move, picking up Soto.
20:20
Maybe my Red Sox can take notice if you pick.
20:22
If you had a good player, usually you know you're a more
20:24
exciting team. But anyway, I can't complain.
20:27
Red Sox actually won last night, which I couldn't believe they
20:30
did have a sharp line move anyway. 2 pitchers with, you
20:33
know, somewhat high ER as the other thing that I like is
20:36
yesterday, both these bullpens really got taxed.
20:39
You had Cortez only go 5 innings for Amber Valdez only went 4.2
20:43
innings. So you have a lot of bullpen
20:45
arms. I know it's early in the season
20:47
and you know you haven't played, you know, you haven't had a lot
20:49
of of appearances, so maybe it's not that hard to go back-to-back
20:52
today. But you know, I'd rather, you
20:55
know, both your starters can't get out of the 5th versus, you
20:57
know, you have complete games in the bullpens.
20:59
Fully rested again today? No, the bullpens kind of taxed
21:02
after both these guys yesterday left early and then a little
21:05
cherry on top. I don't have a full confirmation
21:08
on this, but as of now it looks like the roof is opened for
21:12
Houston. It's not going to be that hot.
21:14
It's only like 70°. So pretty nice at Minute Maid
21:17
Park. And as of now, the roof is
21:18
opened and the wind is blowing out about 10 mph, blowing out to
21:22
left center. And we always love wind blowing
21:25
out because you know, that could be a warning track fly ball gets
21:28
pushed into a first row home run.
21:30
So if you add it all up here guys, we have a nine juiced up
21:32
over across the board. We have a great bet split.
21:35
We have two starters who can get knocked around.
21:38
We have a tax bullpen and we have wind blowing out.
21:40
I'm going over here, give me over nine runs.
21:43
We need 10 runs or more over 9. I got it at -115 now last bet of
21:50
the of the day for episode 12 of the all systems Gopod.
21:54
Let's go to a little bit of fighting, as I like to call it,
21:58
which is really fighting. You guys know the inside joke by
22:00
now. But it sounds like when the guy
22:04
who wears the the suit coat with a tie, it was a Bruce buffer.
22:07
When he holds the card and he he points to you and he says
22:09
fighting in this corner, it sounds like biting.
22:12
So that's where the genesis of biting comes from anyway.
22:16
I know some people love that, some people are probably annoyed
22:18
by it, but I just think it's funny and it's what me and my
22:20
friends usually say and joke about.
22:22
Anyway, I'm going to go to a big match up here.
22:26
This is the main event, so this is the main event.
22:29
This is the women's flyweight Aaron Blanche Field against
22:34
Manon Fiorio. Not to be confused with Fiorio
22:38
from The Sopranos, but anyway, I'm going to go with Blanche
22:41
Field here. Notice a good sharp steam move
22:44
and a bunch of other angles here that favor Blanche Field.
22:46
Now remember, taking a step back, my UFC model is very
22:49
simple. I want to combine the data from
22:51
the market with kind of physical and youth advantages.
22:54
So I want a fighter who is younger, taller, has a longer
22:58
reach, has a line move in their favor, and has a good bet versus
23:01
dollar split. So Blanchfield is checking off
23:03
almost every box. First thing you got to know
23:05
about Blanchfield, she is 24 years old.
23:08
She's in her prime. Fioro is 34 years old.
23:12
So fade fighters 30 year older fade fighters who are five years
23:16
older than their opponent or more.
23:17
We basically have a big youth advantage with Aaron
23:20
Blanchfield, 24 versus 34. Now she doesn't have the height,
23:23
she's 5 foot 3. Fioro is 5 foot five.
23:26
So you don't have the height there, but you do have the
23:28
reach. 66 inch reach versus 65 inch reach.
23:32
But the big one, there's the youth advantage, 10 years
23:34
younger with Blanchfield. Now let's go to what the betting
23:37
market is telling us. Really sharp move here toward
23:39
Blanchfield. Bet MGM Blanchfield is only
23:42
getting 43% of bets, but 72% of the money.
23:47
And Blanchfield has a massive steam move in her favor.
23:49
She opened at around -145 -, 150.
23:52
Now she's upwards of -200. So the line is getting steam
23:56
toward Blanchfield and that's notable.
23:58
She's not getting 80% bets, 80% money.
24:00
She's only getting 43% bets, but 72% money.
24:03
So she would match that, you know, sub 50% tickets, you know,
24:07
above 50% dollars. And that line move tells us that
24:10
even though the public is going with Fioro, who is the trendy
24:13
dog here, the line is going toward Blanchfield.
24:16
Now a couple other factors here that favor Blanchfield.
24:19
I was looking at her striking accuracy.
24:21
She's much, much more accurate with her strikes, 52% versus
24:25
39%. Was also reading about how she
24:27
is the much better grappler and wrestler, much more durable and
24:31
a big angle here is she's way better with takedowns and
24:34
submissions. Fioro is more of a striker and
24:38
if you also look at the angle here of cardio, I was reading
24:40
about this, you know, a much younger fighter.
24:43
Imagine when you're 24 versus 34, like I'm I'm 36.
24:47
I was much healthier and more vibrant when I was 24 versus 36.
24:52
So imagine that youth advantage when you are in a really tough
24:56
bout here. Hopefully that will really show
24:58
off with the better cardio, you know, better vigor, better
25:00
energy. And Fiorio, I was reading about
25:03
her, she typically runs out of gas like she'll start hot and
25:06
you know kind of her cardio aware over time, which pretty
25:09
much happens to everybody, but especially with that 10 year
25:12
youth advantage in favor of Blanchfield.
25:14
So you add it all up guys, only 43% bets, but 72% money.
25:19
Massive steam move -145 up to -200.
25:22
Huge youth advantage, more accurate striker, better
25:26
wrestler, more durable, better cardio, better at takedowns and
25:29
submissions. I'm going with Blanchfield on
25:32
the money line to win this, this, this white.
25:35
But the important thing is shop around because I told you that
25:37
she went from -145 to -200. Well, one of my sports books is
25:42
posting Blanchfield at -188. So that's where I bet
25:46
Blanchfield, I got her at -188. So shop around, there's -2
25:51
hundreds, there's a -, 195, -, 190, -, 188.
25:55
Again, the important thing there is hopefully she wins for us.
25:58
You know, we'll get a little more than 1/2 unit back.
26:00
But if I get -188 and you get -200, yeah, we're both happy if
26:04
we win. But I'm going to get a little
26:05
more back than you are because I've access to a better number.
26:08
So always remember that. Get the best number.
26:10
Let's go. Erin Blanchfield on the money
26:13
line fade, the Trendy Dog, Super, super sharp bet split
26:17
with the steam move and RLM. I'm on Blanchfield -188.
26:22
That about does it for episode 12 of the All Systems Go Sports
26:26
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
26:28
Now, have you learned about rhythm yet?
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I hope you have, because rhythm is awesome.
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Rhythm Powers this podcast Rhythm is the ultimate AI sports
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betting app for data backed pics and props.
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So if you haven't done it yet, go download the Rhythm app.
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I'll make it very simple for you.
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All you have to do is go to my Twitter page at Josh, under
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score Insights, give me a follow and go to the pinned tweet.
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At the very top it's going to have a link that says
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rhythm.com/custom Click that get logged in.
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Give that 7 day free trial a shot.
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Also you can give the All Systems Go Twitter page of
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follow at under score. ASG under score podcast.
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Same thing, there's a pin tweet at the top.
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Click that custom link. You'll get that 7 day free trial
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so you can start using rhythm to your advantage.
27:12
Now if you enjoy the pod. Couple things I want to ask of
27:15
you and you. You guys are so awesome.
27:16
You've been listening because I've been noticing that the five
27:19
star reviews are are skyrocketing across Spotify.
27:23
So thank you all if you want to give it a five star review.
27:26
It means a ton. It gets us in the rankings.
27:29
Hopefully it gets us to a point where you know we're we're,
27:32
we're continuing to move up the charts, which is great to see.
27:34
But if you want to give it five stars on Spotify, that would
27:37
mean a ton to me. Also iTunes, iheart.
27:39
However else you listen a five star review would go a long way.
27:42
So seriously, thank you. That really, really means a lot.
27:46
Of course if you enjoy the pod and you want to learn more about
27:49
data-driven sports betting, you like tuning in.
27:52
But you said hey, like you know I want to hold something in my
27:55
hand. I want to be able to, you know,
27:56
go back to something right in the margins.
27:59
Have a have a Bible. Well, guess what?
28:00
I have the Sharp Contrarian Bible available to you to
28:03
purchase. It's only 20 bucks.
28:05
It makes a great. I don't know, can you put it in
28:08
East? An Easter basket?
28:09
And maybe, maybe it could, but it's called the Everything Guide
28:12
to Sports betting. So just go to Amazon.com, type
28:14
in the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
28:16
Pick up a copy of my book. Support the team, Learn more
28:20
about sports betting. Give that, give a copy of the
28:22
book to every one of your buddies who said, yeah, North
28:24
Carolina. Yeah, Hammer North Carolina.
28:27
They're going to roll. Well, they'll go to the chapter
28:29
that says contrarian betting and say when you get an 81%, no, no,
28:32
no, we want to be on the other side.
28:34
But seriously, my books got everything I've learned in the
28:36
industry. How lines are set, how and why
28:38
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
28:40
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
28:43
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
28:46
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
28:48
Betting. So go buy a copy.
28:50
It would really mean a lot to me, guys.
28:51
With that being said, another pod here in the books are up to
28:54
12. I feel like we just started the
28:56
pod. We've already got 12 under our
28:57
wing, which is great to see. But reminder whether I see you
29:01
at the Borgata in Atlantic City. Twin River in Rhode Island.
29:04
The Brooklyn New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
29:06
Down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
29:09
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. Or out in the desert where they
29:13
take sharp bets with low with with high limits, I should say.
29:16
And the lowest juice possible at the South point.
29:18
Or of course, stadium swim where you can jump in the pool.
29:21
Which is what I wanted to do after Illinois and Bama came
29:24
through for us. Wherever it may be.
29:26
You're going to walk up to me. You're going to show me another
29:28
winning night of tickets. Show me an Illini ticket.
29:31
Show me an Alabama Contrarian ticket.
29:32
Show me a Saint Louis Blues ticket.
29:34
Whatever. You don't show me that Oakland
29:36
A's ticket. Cleveland had to score those two
29:38
meaningless runs to kill the under seven half.
29:40
Anyway, I'm not going to complain.
29:42
Third straight winning day, guys.
29:43
Let's try to make it 4 today. As we steam into the weekend.
29:46
My parting words as always. Stay sharp, stay contrarian.
29:49
Bet against the public. Place yourself on the side of
29:51
the house. Always be with the smart money,
29:53
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
29:55
Of course not. But remember, we are playing a
29:57
long game so we can consistently bypass the games that I've red
30:01
flags. Get down on the games that check
30:03
off our boxes against the public, with the house, with the
30:06
pros, Flat bet. Avoid parlays.
30:09
Get some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
30:11
to be successful sports bettors. So enjoy the madness.
30:14
Hope everyone has a great weekend.
30:16
Once I submit this pod, the wife, the dog and I, we're
30:19
hopping in the car. We're driving to Western Mass to
30:21
spend the weekend with my parents.
30:23
My sister and her family will be visiting.
30:25
My aunt and uncle will be there. So I know sports betting is our
30:28
passion, what we love. But I hope everyone is enjoying
30:31
some time with family or whatever.
30:33
You got planned this weekend but hopefully got a lot of lot of
30:36
Reese's cups. Those are the best but I wish
30:38
you the best of luck. Hope you have a fantastic
30:40
holiday. Hope the Easter Bunny gets you
30:42
everything you want. I'd ask for some some winning
30:45
tickets from the Easter Bunny. That would be that would be a
30:47
good thing to do. But reminder, no pod this
30:49
weekend. So we back at it on Monday.
30:52
But you can check out the sharp rewards that I write.
30:54
I'll put one out for tomorrow and for Sunday.
30:56
You can find that on my Twitter page at Josh under score
30:59
Insights. But have a great weekend
31:01
everyone. Enjoy the madness and let's hope
31:03
we can get a winner there with our girl Blanchfield and biting
31:06
for tomorrow night. Have a great weekend guys, and
31:08
happy Easter. Good luck.