Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Could Japan TRIGGER a Bitcoin Crash to $40,000?! | Simply Originals

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Could Japan TRIGGER a Bitcoin Crash to $40,000?! | Simply Originals · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  What if I told you that the next Bitcoin crash is already
• 0:04
  scheduled? Not because of BlackRock, not
• 0:06
  because of the Fed, not because of ETFs, but because of Japan.
• 0:12
  Yeah, Japan. On December 19th, the Bank of
• 0:17
  Japan is expected to raise interest rates again.
• 0:20
  And every single time Japan does this, Bitcoin gets wrecked.
• 0:26
  March 2024, Bitcoin down 27%. July 2024 down 30%.
• 0:34
  January 2025 down 30% again. And now some are warning that
• 0:40
  this could send Bitcoin to 70K60K.
• 0:43
  Even 40 K Luke Groman says he might get bullish again at 40K.
• 0:49
  So the question is simple, is Japan about to nuke Bitcoin?
• 0:54
  Or is this the final shake out before the biggest move in
• 0:57
  bitcoins history? Because if history rhymes, this
• 1:01
  is where we can't fold and legends are born.
• 1:04
  We got a big 1 today. All right, so let's talk about
• 1:12
  that Bank of Japan on December 19th, they're expected to hike
• 1:16
  rates again around 25 basis points.
• 1:18
  Sounds pretty boring, right? Wrong.
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  Because Japan doesn't move the yen.
• 1:24
  Japan moves global dollar liquidity.
• 1:27
  Here's the brutal pattern. Do you see it now?
• 1:29
  Why? Well, because Japan is the
• 1:31
  largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries.
• 1:34
  They hold over like a trillion. This is all what the yen carry
• 1:38
  trade unwinding looks like. Cheap yen was borrowed, used to
• 1:42
  buy everything and rate hikes reverse it instantly.
• 1:46
  And we already saw the warning shot on November 30th when Japan
• 1:51
  confirmed hikes were coming. Bitcoin dumped to 83 K and 200
• 1:57
  billion evaporated from the market.
• 1:59
  So the question again isn't if Japan matters.
• 2:03
  The question is, was that the shakeout or is the real 1
• 2:07
  coming? Oh, and yeah, when you thought
• 2:09
  Japan was done breaking. Japan is preparing to sell 534
• 2:15
  billion ETFs. The Bank of Japan holds
• 2:18
  approximately ¥83 trillion in ETFs.
• 2:22
  They'll sell slowly at ¥330 billion per year, which means
• 2:27
  it's going to take them more than 100 years, 112 years.
• 2:31
  This is the most Japanese thing imaginable.
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  But markets don't care about patients.
• 2:36
  They care about direction. Selling is selling and again,
• 2:39
  liquidity tightens. So yes, short term Japan is
• 2:44
  pressure and now we pivot because this is where everyone
• 2:47
  gets it wrong. What's coming next?
• 2:49
  Well, this week's data jobs report, CPIPCE, Bank of Japan
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  decision on the 19th. And meanwhile, U.S.
• 2:58
  National debt 38.5 trillion and still running.
• 3:04
  And here's the monster under the bed.
• 3:08
  Trillion dollars in U.S. debt must be refinanced in 2026 at
• 3:13
  higher rates. That's impossible.
• 3:16
  Which means rate cuts aren't optional.
• 3:19
  QE isn't optional. Liquidity isn't a choice.
• 3:24
  It's math. 10th grade math. And when liquidity returns, hard
• 3:30
  assets win. Which is why Michael Saylor just
• 3:33
  bought more strategy. Bought 10,645 BTC for 980
• 3:38
  million cut bucks at approximately 92 K per coin.
• 3:42
  They now hold 671,268 BTC. Gigachet isn't trading Japan
• 3:48
  headlines, he is front running monetary collapse.
• 3:53
  Well, Giga Chad gets it, some others don't.
• 3:55
  Now this is important. Luke Roman, one of the smartest
• 3:58
  macro minds out there just reduced his Bitcoin position at
• 4:03
  95 K Why gold charts broke down gold outperforming tech
• 4:09
  correlation, quantum computing fears, the four year cycle
• 4:13
  theory and he says he might get bullish again at 40K and look
• 4:19
  respect to Luke. But this this is capitulation to
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  hit 40K, Bitcoin would have to fall over 2 standard deviations
• 4:26
  below its power law trend that like never happens.
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  Bitcoin skews upward, not down. Quantum risk overblown gold
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  outperforming historically bullish for Bitcoin later price
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  action. That's the point.
• 4:40
  Capitulation always looks rational, Luke admits.
• 4:44
  Quote. I don't know why Bitcoin is
• 4:46
  rolling over. That's the tell.
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  Because when analysis becomes purely price based, conviction
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  is gone. This is what tops don't look
• 4:55
  like. This is what bottom psychology
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  looks like. Very serious people raising the
• 5:01
  potential that it could be an issue within two to nine years.
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  And the quantum stuff like is way over my head.
• 5:10
  It's way over my pay grade. I try to read it and I feel like
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  the dumbest person alive. And I am not in a position to
• 5:18
  sit here and have any debate with someone as quantum.
• 5:20
  It is at a risk, is it not? What I am in a position to
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  discuss is I've been in markets 30 years and I'm watching the
• 5:27
  way Bitcoin is not making a new high against gold.
• 5:30
  I'm watching what Tethers doing. I'm watching what these people I
• 5:33
  respect in the space are saying and I'm saying markets are
• 5:38
  telling me that serious. And oh by the way, the OG
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  whales. Most selling in a cycle ever.
• 5:44
  Oh, really? Yeah, maybe it's nothing.
• 5:47
  Maybe it's nothing. Now intuitively, if I was worth
• 5:51
  5000, two hundred $300,1,000,000 billion dollars in Bitcoin, it
• 5:55
  is probably mostly in Bitcoin. I've held it for 15 years, 10
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  years. Yeah, I would probably be very
• 6:02
  tight end in that world and I wouldn't sell unless there was
• 6:07
  some sort of real. I would start to take some off
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  the table If I thought Quantum was a risk, I wanted to at least
• 6:14
  hedge somewhat. And so when I see this whale
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  selling, I can't help but think, you know, maybe there's
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  something there given the price action I'm seeing.
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  When you're looking at gold versus Bitcoin not breaking,
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  setting a massive a new high against gold for the first time
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  in its life. When I see it breaking down on a
• 6:30
  momentum base, various momentum bases relative to the dollar on
• 6:35
  long term charts, like I don't really look at the chart.
• 6:37
  Like for me, I just want to see the long term technicals.
• 6:40
  And the long term technicals were really breaking down about
• 6:43
  3-4 weeks ago, six weeks ago. And so that's really where I
• 6:46
  just say, you know what, I might be, I fully concede I might be
• 6:49
  being too cute by half. And these technicals, when they
• 6:53
  broke each of the last three times as emphatically as they
• 6:56
  just broke about 3 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago, the median decline in
• 6:59
  Bitcoin was 6570% each time. And there were only three
• 7:04
  triggers in 14 years and there have been no false triggers.
• 7:08
  So for me, it's you know what, especially given the size it had
• 7:11
  grown to in, in My Portfolio, you know, it was a champagne
• 7:14
  problem. Knock on wood it was.
• 7:15
  It got something right for change.
• 7:17
  But. The IT.
• 7:19
  Just to me it's it spoke to a need to right size it and
• 7:21
  substantially reduce positions because I just think it's going
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  a lot lower. And I guess lastly a tie back
• 7:26
  wise up functioning. I've called it the last
• 7:28
  functioning smoke alarm for five, 6-7 years.
• 7:31
  Look, it's telling us the first half of next year is going to be
• 7:33
  ugly, right? Let's make no mistakes.
• 7:35
  Bitcoin, if this Bitcoin sell off is not just 100% tech and
• 7:41
  quantum computing related and free, forget about tech because
• 7:44
  tech's liquidity too. If this isn't just a Bitcoin
• 7:46
  specific quantum computing sell off, and I don't think it is,
• 7:50
  then what Bitcoin's telling us is, you know, Sir, we go back to
• 7:52
  that BC and AD of 2026. Yikes.
• 7:57
  There's a lot of basically everything, but gold and the
• 7:59
  dollar are likely to get waylaid until we get to year 0, is what
• 8:03
  Bitcoin is saying. And on what time horizon are you
• 8:05
  bearish Bitcoin one month, three month or is this a multi year
• 8:08
  negative year you have? Probably a function of more
• 8:11
  price than time, but there's probably price and time.
• 8:14
  In other words, look, if I woke up and Bitcoin is 40,000 and a
• 8:19
  little bit of time has passed and there's revulsion in any
• 8:23
  number of technical indices. One of the nice things about
• 8:25
  having the size following I do on X is it's a very useful
• 8:29
  indicator of sentiment. I can just, you know, chum, you
• 8:32
  know, throw some chum in the water and, and the response I
• 8:34
  get is pretty informative. And then it's also going to be a
• 8:37
  revaluation of fundamentals, right?
• 8:38
  Of OK, where's price? Probably some time.
• 8:43
  And then OK, is quantum getting closer, better, what have you
• 8:47
  amongst. And again, I'm not smart enough
• 8:49
  to figure out whether it is or not.
• 8:50
  There's a quorum of people I'm watching that are this is their
• 8:53
  lives. I'm going to trust what they're
• 8:55
  having to say. But that's for me really more it
• 8:58
  like I for me, it's a for at least the next several months.
• 9:01
  It's negative again. If it crashed tomorrow to a
• 9:04
  level where it's OK, I and revulsion, I could revisit that,
• 9:07
  but it's, I don't think that's going to happen.
• 9:10
  I don't think it's going to happen that fast, certainly not
• 9:12
  the way last the last three cycles have gone.
• 9:15
  And you know, I've lived through each of those, You know, 13 I
• 9:18
  own Bitcoin, 17 I own Bitcoin, 21 I own Bitcoin.
• 9:21
  And it was like same kind of thing.
• 9:23
  It felt very similar. The reaction was very similar.
• 9:26
  You know, I had a tickler on my calendar literally in September,
• 9:29
  like, hey, check Bitcoin, it's the fourth year.
• 9:32
  And I looked at it was like 120. I'm like, Nah, we're fine.
• 9:35
  And so I finally only went negative at like 95,000.
• 9:39
  Hey, hey, come here, come here, come here.
• 9:41
  Let me show you something. Bitcoins RSI is at levels last
• 9:44
  seen at the 2018 bottom, the March 2020 COVID crash and the
• 9:49
  2022 bear market lows every single time Bitcoin exploded.
• 9:55
  High extreme fear returns plus 233% + 70% + 42%.
• 10:02
  Fear is not the sell signal. Fear is the setup.
• 10:05
  And now we've got Japan tightening, retail broken, and
• 10:09
  the experts are capitulating right before the biggest
• 10:13
  liquidity event of the decade. Now what if I told you what the
• 10:17
  Fed just did? They've done before, And Germany
• 10:22
  also made a similar move in the 30's.
• 10:25
  The markets won't buy the $9 trillion in debt coming due, but
• 10:30
  the Fed will. Is this the end game?
• 10:33
  We're about to bring it home, but before we do, look at our
• 10:36
  likes. 3-4 times maybe I'll pump those numbers up.
• 10:39
  Those are. Rookie numbers in this racket.
• 10:41
  Let's take a quick second for our sponsors who keep this show
• 10:44
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• 10:46
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• 10:48
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• 11:03
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• 11:30
  Now watch this. The Federal Reserve just
• 11:33
  announces unleashing the money printers to finance a $9
• 11:37
  trillion wall of federal debt coming due this year.
• 11:41
  As in, markets won't buy it, so the Fed will with counterfeit
• 11:45
  money. This is where the Fed type zeros
• 11:48
  on Excel sheets in the basement, declares their dollars like any
• 11:51
  good counterfeiter, then uses those fake dollars to buy
• 11:55
  government debt called quantitative easing or QE.
• 11:59
  Jerome Powell said the FED's kicking off with 40 billion a
• 12:02
  month, which is 1/2 trillion dollars per year, lovingly
• 12:07
  printed straight out of your wallet.
• 12:09
  Now this is concerning because the last time the Fed did this
• 12:12
  in the 1940s to finance World War 2, it sent inflation into
• 12:16
  the double digits. At one point in 1947, annual
• 12:20
  inflation was 20%. In fact, it's how Weimar Germany
• 12:25
  got to hyperinflation and wheelbarrows of money because
• 12:29
  once the central bank starts printing the deficit with
• 12:32
  inflation, it's very tempting to make that deficit very big.
• 12:37
  After all, there's a lot of special interests to feed in
• 12:41
  Washington. A trillion here, trillion there
• 12:43
  soon. It is real money.
• 12:45
  What's even more concerning is that in the 1940s, it was just
• 12:48
  about financing government debt. Today, the Fed needs to pump
• 12:52
  hundreds of billions just to sustain a financial sector that
• 12:56
  has ballooned to nearly five times GDP.
• 13:00
  The Fed literally admitted this with Jerome Powell claiming that
• 13:03
  this is not real QE, which everybody knows is inflationary.
• 13:07
  This in fact, is necessary to maintain, quote, ample reserves
• 13:11
  so the Fed can maintain control of interest rates.
• 13:14
  In other words, the financial system breaks unless the Fed
• 13:18
  keeps a full plate of cocaine or inflation by the bar.
• 13:23
  The Fed knows this because markets cracked both times the
• 13:27
  Fed tried draining QE. There was the so-called taper
• 13:31
  tantrum in 2013 and then another one again in 2019 just for COVID
• 13:36
  when interbank rates spiked to double digits.
• 13:39
  In both cases the Fed got back to printing toot suite, bringing
• 13:44
  us to so far 5 1/2 trillion of freshly printed QE since the
• 13:49
  2008 crisis, which is almost as many dollars as existed in 2008.
• 13:55
  So as sex brought to you by I Trust Capital.
• 13:57
  In a recent video I warned we are entering fiscal dominance
• 14:00
  where the central bank ignores inflation and jobs and only
• 14:04
  focuses on financing the government, which is very
• 14:07
  inflationary. the Fed just confirmed this to the tune of
• 14:11
  1/2 trillion per year, maybe a trillion if markets make it
• 14:14
  weird. In a few short months we get a
• 14:16
  new Fed chair with prediction market Kalshi fingering Trump's
• 14:20
  chief economist Kevin Hassett. Asset has been very forthright
• 14:24
  about wanting lower rates, which is good for jobs but bad for
• 14:28
  inflation, even though inflation is already stuck at 3% and
• 14:33
  markets have long seen Hassett as the QE guy.
• 14:36
  So short term, the Feds, now fully reverted to the inflation
• 14:40
  factory, was born to be inflation that will drive voters
• 14:44
  in the midterm election. Long term, if federal deficits
• 14:47
  keep getting worse, which they will, we are now on the road to
• 14:50
  permanent double digit inflation.
• 14:53
  Listen to all last week's videos in a 20 minute podcast.
• 14:55
  Search Peter Surrange, wherever you enjoy your podcast.
• 14:59
  So hey, we'll be watching. See you next time.
• 15:04
  Vibe. Our vibes aren't a meme anymore.
• 15:06
  Japan tightening, America drowning in debt, markets unable
• 15:10
  to absorb the supply. And who steps in?
• 15:13
  The central banks because they always Currently, six of the 12
• 15:19
  FOMC members support rate cuts in January 2026.
• 15:23
  President Trump says cuts are needed now.
• 15:25
  Rate cuts are coming, QE is coming.
• 15:28
  And based on what the Oracle Warren Buffett says here, Omega
• 15:33
  candles are coming too. Roll it.
• 15:36
  And obviously we wouldn't want to be owning anything that we
• 15:41
  thought was in a currency that was really going to help.
• 15:45
  And that's the big thing we worry about with the United
• 15:48
  States currency. I mean, it's the the tendency of
• 15:54
  a government to want to debase its currency over time is
• 16:01
  there's no system that beats that.
• 16:03
  You can pick dictators, you can pick representatives, you can do
• 16:06
  anything. But but the people there, there
• 16:11
  will be a a push toward weaker currencies.
• 16:16
  And of course, that is, I mentioned very briefly in the
• 16:19
  annual report that the, the fiscal policy is what scares me
• 16:23
  in the United States because it's, it's made the way it is
• 16:29
  and, and all the motivations are doing a lot of things that will
• 16:38
  cause can cause trouble with with money.
• 16:42
  But that's not limited to the United States.
• 16:45
  It's all over the world. And some places it gets out of
• 16:49
  control regularly. As you know, they know, they
• 16:52
  know, know they, they devalue at rates that are breathtaking.
• 17:00
  And that's, that's continued. I mean, and even people can
• 17:04
  study economics and you can have all kinds of arrangements, but
• 17:08
  in the end, if you've got people that control the currency, you
• 17:14
  can, you can issue paper money and you will, or you can engage
• 17:23
  in clipping currencies like they used to do centuries ago.
• 17:27
  Or there will always be people the nature of their job.
• 17:34
  I don't, I don't, I'm not singling them out as
• 17:37
  particularly evil or anything like that.
• 17:40
  But the natural course of government is to, is to make the
• 17:45
  currency worth less over time. And, and that's got important
• 17:51
  consequences. And it's very hard to build
• 17:54
  shunks and balances into the system to keep that from
• 17:58
  happening. Everyone wants your Bitcoin.
• 18:01
  They'll scare you, They'll mock you, they'll bear post nonstop.
• 18:05
  All while Bitcoin walks through the front door of the financial
• 18:08
  system to become the new global reserve asset.
• 18:11
  Extreme oversold levels create extreme opportunity.
• 18:17
  Japan may shake out the weak hands.
• 18:19
  That's fine. Because the patient, the humble,
• 18:22
  the Pleds, the bull tarted ones, they inherit the earth.
• 18:26
  What do you guys think? Let us know down below and don't
• 18:28
  forget to lack subscribe and give us a pant by sharing the
• 18:30
  sound money gospel with a bear and tell him to have fun staying
• 18:34
  poor. Nothing stops this train.
• 18:37
  I love you guys, catch you next time.