Latest / The President's Daily Brief / The PDB Situation Report | October 24th, 2026: The Armed Insurgency Challenging Iran's Regime

Transcript

The PDB Situation Report | October 24th, 2026: The Armed Insurgency Challenging Iran's Regime · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:07
  Welcome to the PDB Situation Report.
• 0:09
  I'm Mike Baker.
• 0:10
  Your eyes and ears on the world stage.
• 0:13
  All right,
• 0:13
  let's get briefed.
• 0:15
  First up,
• 0:15
  Iran's regime is facing a growing armed insurgency
• 0:19
  on its own soil as militant groups
• 0:22
  step up attacks against government security forces.
• 0:25
  We'll examine who's behind the rebellion
• 0:27
  and whether it could pose a serious threat to Tehran's grip on power.
• 0:31
  We'll be talking with Jonathan Sayed from
• 0:33
  the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
• 0:35
  Later in the show,
• 0:36
  France is bracing for another weekend of unrest
• 0:40
  as
• 0:41
  new revelations expose a network of more than
• 0:44
  100 organizations helping coordinate and amplify the demonstrations.
• 0:49
  Simon Hankinson of the Heritage Foundation stops by
• 0:52
  to give us insight into that.
• 0:54
  But first,
• 0:55
  today's PDB spotlight.
• 0:57
  Iran's Islamic regime is facing a growing threat from within its own borders.
• 1:02
  In the country's southeast,
• 1:04
  a coalition of armed insurgent groups is
• 1:06
  stepping up attacks against government forces,
• 1:08
  targeting police,
• 1:09
  military personnel,
• 1:10
  and commanders of the Revolutionary Guard Corps,
• 1:13
  the IRGC.
• 1:15
  The violence has escalated sharply in recent weeks,
• 1:17
  with dozens of armed confrontations reported this year.
• 1:21
  And while these insurgents don't appear capable
• 1:24
  of overthrowing the regime on their own,
• 1:26
  they're opening another front at a time when the Iranian
• 1:29
  regime is already under enormous military and economic pressure.
• 1:33
  So,
• 1:34
  just how serious is this rebellion and could it spread?
• 1:38
  Joining us now to break it all down is
• 1:39
  research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
• 1:42
  Jonathan Sayed.
• 1:43
  Jonathan,
• 1:44
  welcome back to the Situation Report.
• 1:46
  Great to see you.
• 1:47
  Great to be back.
• 1:49
  Well,
• 1:49
  I hope you feel that way after we finish our conversation.
• 1:52
  Um,
• 1:53
  so,
• 1:53
  here we go.
• 1:54
  Um,
• 1:55
  there's always been this thought.
• 1:58
  For decades that
• 2:00
  the people would rise up in Iran,
• 2:02
  and
• 2:03
  that would eventually spell the end of the Islamic Republic,
• 2:06
  and they would finally
• 2:08
  have a,
• 2:09
  a future that they deserve.
• 2:13
  What do we make of what we're seeing in the southeastern part of Iran at this stage?
• 2:18
  What's really remarkable about the southeast insurgency,
• 2:22
  as you know,
• 2:22
  Iran has two main insurgent groups,
• 2:24
  one in the southeast,
• 2:25
  one in the northwest that everybody knows about,
• 2:28
  the Kurds,
• 2:28
  the southeast,
• 2:29
  the Baloch ethnic group,
• 2:30
  is lesser known.
• 2:31
  But the major difference is,
• 2:33
  even though both groups very much evolved
• 2:35
  to pursue ethnocentric policies or aspirations,
• 2:39
  the southeastern insurgent.
• 2:41
  is increasingly adopting a nationalist framework.
• 2:44
  I think they may have really picked up what happened with the Kurds in early March.
• 2:48
  There was a lot of backlash and there was fears of separatism,
• 2:51
  both from US friends and allies,
• 2:54
  and of course the Iranian people.
• 2:55
  So by the reframing the nature
• 2:58
  of their opposition,
• 2:59
  I think that definitely gives them an upper hand compared to other groups.
• 3:02
  But that said,
• 3:02
  one,
• 3:03
  they're still quite far from the capital.
• 3:04
  And from the major urban areas,
• 3:06
  the Kurds are much closer,
• 3:07
  so that's one issue.
• 3:08
  And the other angle is that these groups initially started in
• 3:11
  addition to separatism with a lot of Islamist Sunni Islamist agenda.
• 3:15
  So
• 3:15
  this is all to say you should still take it with a grain of salt,
• 3:18
  but whatever framework moves within a nationalist one
• 3:22
  would still be a positive,
• 3:23
  and that might be a later concern
• 3:25
  to address once the Islamic Republic is toppled.
• 3:28
  Is there
• 3:31
  Are there any signs that the Kurds and,
• 3:33
  and,
• 3:34
  and what we're seeing within the Southeast,
• 3:36
  uh,
• 3:37
  that there may be some connectivity or linkages there,
• 3:42
  uh,
• 3:42
  with the idea being,
• 3:43
  look,
• 3:43
  OK,
• 3:43
  we,
• 3:44
  we don't necessarily see eye to eye on,
• 3:46
  on a variety of issues,
• 3:48
  but,
• 3:48
  you know,
• 3:49
  a common enemy,
• 3:50
  uh,
• 3:50
  is,
• 3:50
  is that a possibility?
• 3:53
  It is,
• 3:54
  but sometimes some of these intra opposition
• 3:58
  really frictions do have a political
• 4:00
  consequence for the movement as a whole.
• 4:02
  With this particular case,
• 4:04
  uh,
• 4:05
  they're quite far from one another geographically.
• 4:07
  That makes it harder for them to logistically coordinate.
• 4:10
  Uh,
• 4:10
  I think the other issue looking at it is that the Kurds enjoy
• 4:14
  more or less support or influence from both Israel and the United States,
• 4:17
  as we saw prior,
• 4:18
  as we saw in Iraq and Syria.
• 4:20
  That's not the case with the southeast.
• 4:21
  So that's a really a new chapter and a new wave of opportunity,
• 4:25
  uh,
• 4:25
  as we see the US again reevaluating whether they should initiate another.
• 4:30
  Round of strikes in joint with Israel.
• 4:33
  The real question is,
• 4:34
  would they actually move on with capitalizing on some armed existing insurgency
• 4:38
  that operates with a national framework because the
• 4:40
  Kurdish option proved to be not really viable.
• 4:43
  So this is to say,
• 4:45
  as they're evaluating whether after or before the midterms,
• 4:47
  this is something that has to be on the radar.
• 4:50
  Mhm.
• 4:51
  When you say not really viable,
• 4:52
  you're talking about the Kurts,
• 4:54
  can you expand on that?
• 4:55
  Yeah,
• 4:56
  to begin with,
• 4:57
  the groups tend to be very fragmented,
• 5:00
  so there's a lot of intra-Kurdish fighting.
• 5:02
  You don't see that with the Baluch ethnic group.
• 5:04
  They actually formed a new coalition in January,
• 5:06
  in December 2025,
• 5:08
  and we see them really operating under the same umbrella.
• 5:10
  With Kurds,
• 5:10
  you don't have that.
• 5:11
  In addition,
• 5:12
  some of them are actually designated terror groups with the Kurdish population,
• 5:15
  but really most importantly is number one,
• 5:18
  they would very much jeopardize
• 5:21
  any sentiment that would resonate.
• 5:23
  With the Iranian populace,
• 5:24
  you're talking about a population of 90 million people.
• 5:28
  Kurds are only a few million.
• 5:29
  So,
• 5:29
  you would really be alienating the main leverage
• 5:32
  if you moved forward with ethnocentric policies.
• 5:35
  And I guess the last point on that is looking at numbers again,
• 5:37
  the IRGC,
• 5:38
  the armed apparatus,
• 5:39
  fields about maybe half a million personnel,
• 5:42
  but let's say 200,000
• 5:43
  that are deployable immediately.
• 5:45
  The Kurdish factions are maybe about a few 1000
• 5:48
  so the perception that somehow the Kurds are going to just
• 5:52
  The way it is going to be paid for them,
• 5:53
  for them to move to the capital.
• 5:54
  All of a sudden the regime is going to collapse overnight is not really realistic.
• 5:58
  So what we would have to pivot more towards is
• 6:00
  dragging it out to really implement the same asymmetric warfare
• 6:04
  against the regime itself.
• 6:06
  It's not going to be overnight,
• 6:07
  and it's about changing the calculus,
• 6:09
  making regime officials afraid of showing up to work,
• 6:11
  desertion,
• 6:12
  so then we can get to defections,
• 6:14
  and that was really
• 6:15
  playing out in March,
• 6:16
  but the ceasefire came too abruptly to make any successes come out of it.
• 6:21
  Yeah,
• 6:21
  yeah,
• 6:22
  and
• 6:22
  I mean,
• 6:22
  I,
• 6:23
  I think there was also some thought that,
• 6:24
  look,
• 6:25
  with enough economic pressure,
• 6:26
  you can get this,
• 6:27
  this economy to collapse eventually,
• 6:29
  you know,
• 6:29
  the,
• 6:30
  the security forces don't get paid,
• 6:32
  um,
• 6:32
  and,
• 6:33
  you know,
• 6:33
  that's another
• 6:35
  point of leverage perhaps to create some,
• 6:37
  some splintering.
• 6:38
  Um,
• 6:39
  the,
• 6:40
  the Baloch population,
• 6:42
  you know,
• 6:43
  is it safe to say,
• 6:44
  is it fair to say primarily Sunni
• 6:46
  in the South?
• 6:47
  Yeah,
• 6:48
  they are.
• 6:48
  OK.
• 6:49
  So
• 6:50
  are they viewed in terms of the Iranian population in general,
• 6:54
  are they viewed with some skepticism in terms of their overall agenda?
• 6:58
  More or less,
• 6:59
  especially the background before they announced this coalition,
• 7:02
  like I said,
• 7:02
  they still had major Islamist tendencies.
• 7:04
  That definitely raises some eyebrows,
• 7:06
  but it's not because they're Sunni or because they're another ethnic group really.
• 7:10
  Uh,
• 7:10
  that comes down to two things that Iranians fear the most.
• 7:13
  I'm talking about the population.
• 7:15
  Any form of Islamism,
• 7:16
  replacing one with another,
• 7:18
  and any form of ethnocentric policies that might Balkanize the country
• 7:21
  and then lead to civil war for the rest of eternity,
• 7:24
  they look at the Balkans,
• 7:25
  uh,
• 7:26
  perhaps other countries in the region,
• 7:27
  they don't really want that to play out.
• 7:28
  So as long as you're not hitting those two issues,
• 7:31
  uh,
• 7:31
  there's not necessarily a problem by the population,
• 7:35
  and PR is everything.
• 7:36
  You see how this Baloch population is putting out
• 7:39
  content on their TV and they're debunking Islamic Republic narratives.
• 7:42
  They're backing the crown prince.
• 7:44
  So all that really resonates in the age of the internet,
• 7:46
  you can really change minds quite fast with correct messaging.
• 7:49
  But again,
• 7:50
  this is to say it should still be taken with a grain of salt.
• 7:52
  You don't really know
• 7:53
  how these groups might again restructure themselves
• 7:56
  post regime change.
• 7:58
  Mhm.
• 8:00
  Do,
• 8:00
  do,
• 8:00
  do you get the sense that what's happening there
• 8:02
  in the Southeast with the Baloch with this,
• 8:04
  this,
• 8:04
  this,
• 8:05
  what you wanna call it insurgency or just the,
• 8:07
  the,
• 8:07
  the uptick in,
• 8:08
  in violence against the,
• 8:10
  the,
• 8:10
  uh,
• 8:11
  security forces and police.
• 8:13
  Do you get the sense that for folks in Tehran,
• 8:16
  that's just an isolated thing that's happening.
• 8:19
  It's not impacting what,
• 8:20
  you know,
• 8:20
  what their concerns are,
• 8:22
  or,
• 8:22
  or their daily lives?
• 8:24
  More or less.
• 8:25
  One,
• 8:26
  we talked about geography,
• 8:27
  it's quite far,
• 8:28
  but I think what really doesn't concern regime officials,
• 8:30
  if that's what you mean by folks in Tehran,
• 8:32
  is the fact that they are not yet at least
• 8:37
  yet,
• 8:37
  at least we don't quite know yet,
• 8:39
  but they're not really connected to Israel or the
• 8:42
  United States the same way the Kurds were.
• 8:44
  The president of Officially announced they had armed the Kurds
• 8:46
  and they were hoping these weapons would end up in
• 8:49
  the heartland of the country.
• 8:50
  That didn't play out,
• 8:51
  separate story,
• 8:52
  but this is to say we don't see that connectivity between the Baluch.
• 8:55
  So if you look at an insurgency,
• 8:57
  one is quite far,
• 8:58
  and two,
• 8:58
  you don't see your main adversaries
• 9:00
  really engaging it as much,
• 9:01
  it's less of a problem.
• 9:03
  But that said,
• 9:04
  a regime that is So fragile,
• 9:06
  as you pointed out with the economy with increasing discontent even amongst regime
• 9:10
  officials themselves,
• 9:11
  this no war nor peace limbo
• 9:13
  that is
• 9:14
  really
• 9:15
  devastating the regime as a whole,
• 9:18
  you can't really take any chances with anything.
• 9:20
  And you know once an insurgency starts in one part,
• 9:23
  you don't know how it's going to spread.
• 9:24
  And the last point on that is.
• 9:26
  The groups themselves matter to an extent,
• 9:28
  but what's really more important about these groups,
• 9:30
  they're all situated by the border of the country,
• 9:33
  which means they can play a role logistically
• 9:35
  with importing weapons into the main urban areas.
• 9:38
  That I think would be the main asset,
• 9:40
  and that is what everyone watching very closely.
• 9:43
  OK.
• 9:44
  Yeah.
• 9:45
  And then do you get a sense that the regime,
• 9:46
  uh,
• 9:47
  the IRGC or whomever the siege militia or others,
• 9:50
  uh,
• 9:51
  are they
• 9:52
  deploying resources down there,
• 9:53
  uh,
• 9:54
  at the present time?
• 9:55
  Are they trying to tamp this down to any degree,
• 9:58
  or,
• 10:00
  you know,
• 10:00
  are they,
• 10:00
  are they
• 10:01
  already stretched thin and they don't have that ability?
• 10:04
  No,
• 10:04
  you're quite right,
• 10:05
  they are,
• 10:06
  and it's not only the southeast,
• 10:07
  they're also doing it in the northwest.
• 10:09
  So as soon as they hear there might be another round of strike,
• 10:12
  the more fragile they feel internally,
• 10:14
  and once there's an uptick in rhetoric coming from Netanyahu and,
• 10:18
  of course Trump,
• 10:19
  they're soon to deploy forces,
• 10:21
  and now you see conventional military
• 10:23
  in the southeast and the northwest by the Kurds.
• 10:26
  So I mean that's how the regime is treating it right now.
• 10:28
  Of course disinformation is going to go a long way.
• 10:30
  They still try to,
• 10:32
  you see a lot of
• 10:33
  A divisive language coming from the regime's apparatus trying
• 10:36
  to play Iranian ethnic groups against one another,
• 10:39
  so that is their malign agenda there.
• 10:41
  But increasingly as every Iranian looks at their life,
• 10:44
  they look at the repression,
• 10:45
  it's hard to find discrimination.
• 10:47
  That's perhaps one area that the regime is indiscriminate,
• 10:49
  is when it comes to the repression of its own people.
• 10:51
  So these propaganda campaigns can only work so much.
• 10:54
  Uh,
• 10:54
  so really it comes down to the logistics of actually uniting and organizing them
• 10:59
  under a formed opposition.
• 11:01
  The
• 11:02
  Islamic Republic is,
• 11:04
  is,
• 11:04
  is very inclusive.
• 11:05
  They'll repress everyone.
• 11:07
  Um,
• 11:08
  so,
• 11:08
  they,
• 11:08
  yeah,
• 11:09
  so they've got that going for them.
• 11:10
  Uh,
• 11:11
  Jonathan,
• 11:11
  if you,
• 11:11
  if you stay right where you are,
• 11:13
  we do have to take a quick break
• 11:14
  and then we'll be back
• 11:16
  with more from Jonathan Saed
• 11:18
  here on the Situation Report.
• 11:19
  So please
• 11:20
  stick around.
• 11:21
  Hey,
• 11:22
  Mike Baker here.
• 11:23
  Now,
• 11:23
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  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 13:01
  Joining me once again is research analyst
• 13:03
  at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
• 13:06
  Jonathan Sayed.
• 13:06
  Jonathan,
• 13:07
  thanks very much for sticking around.
• 13:09
  Uh,
• 13:10
  we've been talking about Iran,
• 13:11
  we've been talking about the insurgency in the southeast,
• 13:14
  uh,
• 13:14
  to some degree,
• 13:15
  uh,
• 13:15
  the current state of the Kurds,
• 13:17
  uh,
• 13:18
  up north.
• 13:19
  Um,
• 13:20
  in terms of the Tehran,
• 13:22
  in terms of the,
• 13:23
  the main population centers,
• 13:25
  uh,
• 13:27
  What are you
• 13:28
  seeing in terms of the regime trying to maintain
• 13:31
  control of the population or trying to ensure
• 13:35
  that
• 13:37
  they don't have a repeat of protests?
• 13:39
  I mean,
• 13:39
  are they,
• 13:39
  are they out every night just essentially patrolling neighborhoods,
• 13:42
  warning
• 13:43
  the
• 13:44
  population,
• 13:44
  you know,
• 13:44
  stay
• 13:45
  at home,
• 13:47
  you know,
• 13:47
  nothing to see here.
• 13:48
  What,
• 13:48
  what,
• 13:48
  what is happening?
• 13:50
  That's an excellent question and the answer is really short,
• 13:53
  they launched this,
• 13:55
  uh,
• 13:56
  campaign called the life sacrifice campaign,
• 13:59
  and it's really calling on.
• 14:00
  Iranian civil society,
• 14:02
  really Iranian population,
• 14:03
  Iranian civilians,
• 14:05
  to
• 14:05
  increasingly militarize themselves,
• 14:07
  as the IRGC put it,
• 14:09
  because they're preparing for a long-term war with the United States,
• 14:12
  they need to use every interval between clashes
• 14:14
  with the United States to identify vulnerabilities.
• 14:17
  And of course
• 14:18
  the main existential being not the bombs themselves outside,
• 14:22
  but
• 14:23
  every threat is at a corner in every street.
• 14:25
  Every Iranian at this point is a threat to the Islamic Republic.
• 14:28
  So the The regime is doubling down on mi militarizing their support base.
• 14:32
  Let's say you're driving your kid to school and
• 14:34
  all you see nowadays in the past few months
• 14:36
  is billboards asking you if you know how to operate and
• 14:39
  clean an AK-47.
• 14:40
  Do you know how to use a rocket launcher?
• 14:42
  They set up stands in,
• 14:43
  in little booths.
• 14:45
  Uh,
• 14:45
  let's say you're just taking your family on a
• 14:46
  walk and RGC guy approaches you and says,
• 14:48
  Hey,
• 14:49
  you seem like a very Islamic devoted family.
• 14:51
  Would you like to learn how to operate this,
• 14:53
  uh,
• 14:53
  this pistol,
• 14:54
  let's say.
• 14:54
  You have that component,
• 14:55
  you see increasingly parade.
• 14:57
  And of course nightly gathering and paired with patrol.
• 15:00
  And the last theme here that you haven't really seen before,
• 15:02
  I mean some of this does echo
• 15:04
  the Iran-Iraq war,
• 15:05
  but this time was really news.
• 15:07
  They're incorporating women increasingly.
• 15:09
  So you look at what the Supreme Leader of the revolution,
• 15:11
  Khomeini,
• 15:12
  initially,
• 15:12
  how he talked about women in armed units versus now.
• 15:16
  So now they're bringing in special forces,
• 15:19
  specifically women from different parts of the country,
• 15:22
  in addition to training them.
• 15:23
  They're also teaching them how to operate.
• 15:25
  Uh,
• 15:26
  first person view drones
• 15:27
  by the same regime that uses the same drones to
• 15:30
  identify women who are not wearing the compulsory hijab.
• 15:33
  So that duality,
• 15:34
  I guess,
• 15:34
  to some of these loyalists is not necessarily a contradiction,
• 15:37
  but this is to say,
• 15:38
  uh,
• 15:39
  they would really rewrite any policy they had initially if survival at at stake.
• 15:43
  If they have to incorporate women and if they need to militarize society,
• 15:46
  if they need to teach kids at school how to use weapons,
• 15:50
  they'll do it for the sake of survival,
• 15:51
  and that has been the main theme in the past couple of months.
• 15:55
  So the,
• 15:55
  so the driving.
• 15:57
  The
• 15:57
  concept there is
• 16:00
  try to get the,
• 16:01
  the,
• 16:01
  the,
• 16:01
  the people
• 16:02
  to,
• 16:03
  to view the US,
• 16:04
  to view Israel
• 16:05
  as,
• 16:05
  as the prop,
• 16:06
  right?
• 16:07
  I mean,
• 16:07
  they're,
• 16:07
  they're saying we,
• 16:08
  we,
• 16:08
  we all have to stand together
• 16:10
  against the outside forces,
• 16:11
  even though the regime
• 16:13
  just finished slaughtering thousands of their own citizens earlier in the year.
• 16:16
  Uh,
• 16:17
  you know,
• 16:17
  hey,
• 16:17
  don't look over there.
• 16:18
  Look over here.
• 16:19
  This is where the real problem is.
• 16:21
  Now,
• 16:21
  I'm assuming
• 16:22
  that
• 16:24
  While they may be trying to
• 16:25
  uh educate people on how to operate,
• 16:28
  um,
• 16:29
  weapons,
• 16:29
  they're not actually handing out those weapons.
• 16:33
  It's tough because you have the gray area
• 16:35
  in between which is the Basij paramilitary force.
• 16:39
  It operates under the IRGC,
• 16:40
  but it's a lot more loose.
• 16:42
  If you are in a neighborhood,
• 16:44
  you go to the mosque frequently enough and your family's pro-regime,
• 16:47
  you can get involved with the Basij,
• 16:48
  and if you're close enough,
• 16:50
  you can get yourself a pistol.
• 16:51
  So I think of them as a really fragmented reservist
• 16:55
  that is ideologically devoted and on a volunteer basis.
• 16:58
  They don't really get paid for that.
• 17:00
  Um,
• 17:00
  those guys can get their hands on guns,
• 17:02
  and when we talk about changing the calculus between them and the population,
• 17:06
  uh,
• 17:06
  is that these guys never fear their lives.
• 17:09
  They kill with impunity,
• 17:10
  as we saw in January.
• 17:11
  But in March,
• 17:12
  when Israeli drones were taking out some of these mobile repression units,
• 17:16
  they started not showing up for work,
• 17:17
  they started hiding under bridges.
• 17:19
  So this is to say if there's any calculus at any point
• 17:22
  that they feel they're Lives as much as the Iranian protesters do,
• 17:25
  that is going to be a game changer,
• 17:26
  and you can't do that unless you're
• 17:29
  sending in arms,
• 17:30
  but again,
• 17:30
  not forming an insurgency inside Tehran.
• 17:33
  Acts of sabotage,
• 17:34
  low level assassinations.
• 17:36
  If you're a regime guy marching down the street,
• 17:38
  you should fear your life,
• 17:39
  or at least that's the perception.
• 17:41
  Mhm.
• 17:42
  Yeah,
• 17:42
  I mean,
• 17:42
  you would assume
• 17:44
  that,
• 17:45
  I mean,
• 17:45
  based on what you're,
• 17:45
  what you're saying,
• 17:46
  and it is very logical
• 17:48
  that this idea of militarizing the population,
• 17:50
  it only goes so far.
• 17:51
  They,
• 17:52
  they,
• 17:52
  you would assume that they're vetting
• 17:54
  the people that they're
• 17:55
  They're,
• 17:55
  they're looking to militarize,
• 17:57
  right?
• 17:57
  So,
• 17:58
  you know,
• 17:58
  you're one of our kind of people.
• 17:59
  They're not,
• 18:00
  they're not just
• 18:00
  educating
• 18:01
  the average person
• 18:03
  on the street who
• 18:04
  may not be pro-regime
• 18:06
  because obviously,
• 18:07
  there's a potential for that to backfire.
• 18:08
  And certainly,
• 18:09
  that's why
• 18:09
  I,
• 18:09
  I,
• 18:10
  I don't think they're out there handing out AK-4ty-sevens
• 18:12
  to every citizen because,
• 18:14
  uh,
• 18:15
  well,
• 18:16
  that would be ideal from the perspective of overthrowing the regime.
• 18:19
  It would be.
• 18:20
  No,
• 18:20
  that's,
• 18:20
  I mean,
• 18:21
  that's the,
• 18:21
  that's the main security calculus they had.
• 18:23
  Uh,
• 18:24
  it,
• 18:24
  it really,
• 18:24
  I mean,
• 18:25
  arms matter if,
• 18:26
  depending on whose hands they're in,
• 18:27
  but I guess the final point on that would be.
• 18:30
  They probably see this militarization wave as mostly
• 18:34
  a deterrent against the enemy from within.
• 18:36
  They see it's their own population.
• 18:38
  They're quite clear,
• 18:39
  and they use religion
• 18:41
  to justify this.
• 18:41
  The near enemy,
• 18:43
  it's more dangerous than the foreign adversary because the near one can
• 18:46
  operate as a hand of the foreign or the external further enemy.
• 18:50
  That's according to Religious doctrine and they use that.
• 18:53
  So the idea here is more so that uh you want neighbors to go after one another.
• 18:57
  That's how they look at it.
• 18:58
  They call it neighborhood defense in a sense that if there's uprising again,
• 19:02
  you should be able to identify within your neighborhood who might
• 19:04
  be a problem and if you're well equipped to address it,
• 19:07
  then on that level,
• 19:08
  we don't see a nationwide uprising if we can cut it on the neighborhood level,
• 19:12
  if that makes sense.
• 19:13
  Yeah,
• 19:14
  no,
• 19:14
  it does make sense and you saw it in the old Soviet Union,
• 19:17
  everybody watching everybody else.
• 19:18
  You don't know who to trust,
• 19:20
  uh,
• 19:20
  you don't know,
• 19:21
  you know,
• 19:21
  which of your neighbors is going to be ratting you out.
• 19:23
  Um,
• 19:24
  and that's in a very effective way of,
• 19:26
  of,
• 19:27
  you know,
• 19:27
  repressing,
• 19:28
  uh,
• 19:28
  a population.
• 19:29
  So,
• 19:30
  it,
• 19:30
  it's,
• 19:31
  it makes sense,
• 19:32
  uh,
• 19:32
  with,
• 19:33
  with
• 19:33
  the economy,
• 19:35
  and we talked about it just briefly,
• 19:36
  uh,
• 19:36
  in terms of its
• 19:38
  current state.
• 19:39
  Um,
• 19:40
  what are you seeing?
• 19:41
  Is there a sense because the regime is,
• 19:43
  is like,
• 19:44
  ah,
• 19:44
  we can withstand this pressure,
• 19:45
  this is no problem,
• 19:46
  despite the fact that they apparently,
• 19:48
  uh,
• 19:48
  you know,
• 19:49
  their revenues now from oil have bottomed out.
• 19:51
  There's zero coming in
• 19:53
  again,
• 19:54
  reportedly.
• 19:55
  Um,
• 19:56
  but
• 19:57
  are you seeing any other indications within Iran that things
• 20:01
  are reaching a tipping point from an economic perspective?
• 20:05
  Yes,
• 20:05
  and there are two points I have to quickly address.
• 20:07
  Number one,
• 20:08
  I know we use the term economic collapse,
• 20:10
  and some people point
• 20:12
  point at Iran.
• 20:12
  They say,
• 20:13
  well,
• 20:13
  people are still living their lives,
• 20:14
  therefore there's no economic collapse.
• 20:16
  It's not necessarily a well defined term.
• 20:18
  You can argue economic collapse is happening already.
• 20:20
  I think some people have the perception of
• 20:22
  once we hit economic collapse,
• 20:24
  everyone's going to pour into the streets,
• 20:25
  all the banking is going to shut down.
• 20:27
  That's not how economic collapse,
• 20:29
  quote unquote,
• 20:29
  really plays out.
• 20:30
  It's rising inflation.
• 20:31
  Is you going to the store today and then going
• 20:33
  in the next day and they have to change prices.
• 20:35
  It's people not using cash ever.
• 20:37
  It's everything's card-based because the currency is so devalued.
• 20:40
  It's unemployment rates sky skyrocketing,
• 20:42
  things of that nature.
• 20:43
  And of course we see that impact like never before.
• 20:46
  The currency has never been weaker.
• 20:47
  Uh,
• 20:48
  some of these numbers,
• 20:48
  you just have to start just cutting zeros for day to day grocery items.
• 20:52
  So that's on the economic front.
• 20:53
  Uh,
• 20:53
  this is to say,
• 20:54
  uh,
• 20:55
  maximum pressure,
• 20:55
  the blockade,
• 20:56
  uh,
• 20:57
  economic.
• 20:57
  theory,
• 20:58
  economic D-Day,
• 20:59
  it's biting,
• 21:01
  but it brings me to my second point.
• 21:02
  To what ends?
• 21:03
  Is there a framework in place to capitalize on this?
• 21:06
  My fear
• 21:07
  with the current administration is that the idea is
• 21:09
  if you inflict enough economic and therefore political costs,
• 21:13
  you're going to get behavior change.
• 21:14
  I cannot imagine a single RGC or regime official looking at the status and say
• 21:19
  because the people are poor,
• 21:21
  therefore we have to make a deal.
• 21:22
  It is more so that
• 21:24
  Because the masses might rise up
• 21:26
  with sufficient backing,
• 21:27
  and if they're armed,
• 21:29
  then we might have to temper or maybe lower our stance.
• 21:32
  But as it sits right now,
• 21:33
  the regime thinks it might be another insurgency or uprising.
• 21:36
  Sure,
• 21:37
  they'll just kill they kill their way through it
• 21:39
  if there's no backing from the United States or Israel.
• 21:41
  So we're only halfway through the puzzle.
• 21:43
  The remainder of the infrastructure,
• 21:45
  I don't see it currently being in place to actually utilize some of these,
• 21:49
  some of this dissent.
• 21:51
  Yeah,
• 21:51
  I think you,
• 21:52
  you
• 21:52
  raised a really good point.
• 21:54
  We've talked about that on occasion here on the PDB is the,
• 21:57
  the inability of the administration,
• 21:59
  the US administration,
• 22:00
  not just this one,
• 22:01
  but past ones as well,
• 22:02
  to understand the nature of the Islamic Republic
• 22:05
  and how the Leadership processes,
• 22:08
  uh,
• 22:09
  information and how they make decisions.
• 22:12
  And it's in part
• 22:14
  because we have this,
• 22:15
  I would argue like a,
• 22:17
  a fatal flaw at times
• 22:19
  where we mirror our own values onto other cultures
• 22:23
  and imagine that,
• 22:25
  you know,
• 22:25
  in a set of circumstances,
• 22:27
  they'll act and behave the same way that we would.
• 22:30
  And
• 22:31
  there's just no logic to that.
• 22:33
  The Islamic Republic,
• 22:34
  the leadership.
• 22:35
  Um,
• 22:36
  that,
• 22:36
  that's not how they process things.
• 22:39
  And I think we've,
• 22:40
  we've always made that mistake.
• 22:42
  And I,
• 22:43
  I agree with you.
• 22:43
  I think that there's,
• 22:44
  the only thing they care about at this stage is the same
• 22:47
  thing that
• 22:48
  Kim Jong-un cares about,
• 22:49
  Vladimir Putin cares about,
• 22:50
  Xi Jinping cares about,
• 22:52
  and that's maintaining a grip on power.
• 22:54
  So,
• 22:55
  if that starts to slip,
• 22:56
  yes,
• 22:57
  then you may get
• 22:58
  some behavioral change,
• 23:00
  but,
• 23:01
  Yeah,
• 23:01
  Jonathan,
• 23:02
  it's me climbing down off my soapbox now.
• 23:05
  Uh,
• 23:06
  listen,
• 23:06
  as always,
• 23:07
  man,
• 23:07
  really,
• 23:08
  really enjoyed the conversation.
• 23:10
  Uh,
• 23:10
  and I do hope you'll come back next time we give you a shout.
• 23:13
  Uh,
• 23:13
  I think we'll be,
• 23:14
  we'll be,
• 23:15
  uh,
• 23:15
  dealing with this issue.
• 23:16
  I,
• 23:17
  I,
• 23:17
  I don't know,
• 23:18
  um,
• 23:19
  and we'd all be speculating,
• 23:21
  uh,
• 23:21
  as to what may happen after the midterm elections in the US with President Trump,
• 23:26
  you know,
• 23:26
  talking about a potential
• 23:27
  new
• 23:28
  military campaign.
• 23:30
  Uh,
• 23:30
  but,
• 23:31
  uh,
• 23:31
  you know,
• 23:31
  we'd love to have you back on,
• 23:32
  uh,
• 23:33
  shortly after the elections to talk about what's,
• 23:35
  what's happening.
• 23:36
  The pleasure was all mine,
• 23:38
  and I would end it with this,
• 23:39
  that 2 years is a long time.
• 23:41
  Trump is seeking a legacy that's going to be critical.
• 23:44
  And just look at where we were last year.
• 23:46
  Uh,
• 23:47
  the 2025 June twelve-day war was very different to what we saw.
• 23:50
  So a lot can happen in one year,
• 23:52
  let alone two.
• 23:53
  so we just have to wait and see.
• 23:54
  But to your point,
• 23:55
  post November,
• 23:55
  I think it is going to be critical.
• 23:57
  Yeah,
• 23:58
  I agree.
• 23:58
  But
• 23:59
  I will also,
• 23:59
  I would add to that,
• 24:01
  Johnson,
• 24:01
  not to sound like a complete downer,
• 24:03
  but,
• 24:03
  uh,
• 24:04
  uh,
• 24:04
  you know,
• 24:04
  some of us have been watching the Islamic Republic for decades.
• 24:07
  A,
• 24:08
  uh,
• 24:09
  friend of mine was one of the hostages,
• 24:11
  um,
• 24:11
  and you develop a certain level of cynicism,
• 24:14
  um,
• 24:15
  in,
• 24:15
  in,
• 24:15
  in doing that.
• 24:16
  But I,
• 24:17
  I do hope that we,
• 24:19
  we do see some change for the better,
• 24:21
  uh,
• 24:22
  coming up.
• 24:22
  But anyway,
• 24:23
  More importantly,
• 24:24
  pick up that phone next time we call and
• 24:27
  we'll
• 24:27
  get you back on.
• 24:28
  I look forward to the next conversation,
• 24:29
  Matt,
• 24:30
  as will I.
• 24:31
  Thank you so much.
• 24:32
  Take care.
• 24:33
  Jonathan Saed Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
• 24:37
  Well,
• 24:37
  all right.
• 24:37
  Coming up next,
• 24:39
  France braces for another weekend of violent unrest
• 24:43
  as new questions emerge about the far-left organizations and others
• 24:46
  fueling the chaos.
• 24:48
  Simon Hankinson of the Heritage Foundation,
• 24:50
  he'll join us to examine who's behind the riots and
• 24:53
  what they may be hoping to accomplish.
• 24:55
  Stay with us.
• 24:57
  Hey Mike Baker here.
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• 26:01
  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 26:04
  France is bracing for another weekend of unrest following
• 26:07
  violent riots and chaos that left cities burning,
• 26:11
  businesses looted,
• 26:12
  and thousands arrested because nothing says legitimate protests like looting.
• 26:17
  But there's a bigger story emerging about who's organizing these demonstrations.
• 26:21
  A recent investigation has identified more
• 26:23
  than 100 organizations across 13 countries
• 26:27
  involved in coordinating or amplifying the protests,
• 26:29
  including communist,
• 26:30
  socialist,
• 26:31
  and other far-left groups.
• 26:33
  French President Emmanuel Macron
• 26:35
  is accusing radical leftists of deliberately trying to destabilize the country.
• 26:40
  And with another wave of demonstrations planned,
• 26:43
  French authorities are preparing a massive security operation
• 26:47
  to prevent a repeat of last weekend's chaos.
• 26:50
  Joining me now is Simon Hankinson.
• 26:52
  He's a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation's
• 26:55
  Border Security and Immigration Center.
• 26:58
  Simon,
• 26:58
  thank you very much
• 27:00
  for joining us here on The Situation.
• 27:02
  Good morning.
• 27:04
  Let's start at sort of the 30,000 ft
• 27:06
  level of
• 27:07
  what's been happening in,
• 27:09
  in Europe.
• 27:09
  We'll start with France.
• 27:12
  To what degree
• 27:15
  can you
• 27:18
  Either give us a,
• 27:18
  a sense of how this started.
• 27:21
  Was it,
• 27:21
  was it an organic,
• 27:23
  legitimate
• 27:24
  protest at the outset
• 27:26
  by students and then joined by some teachers,
• 27:29
  uh,
• 27:30
  or
• 27:30
  from the outset,
• 27:31
  do you think there was an
• 27:32
  organized element here involving whether it's progressive lefts,
• 27:36
  anarchists,
• 27:37
  whomever?
• 27:39
  Uh,
• 27:39
  it both,
• 27:40
  both,
• 27:40
  um,
• 27:41
  there,
• 27:42
  there were definitely some issues that students were upset about,
• 27:45
  uh,
• 27:46
  and probably happened for a long time,
• 27:48
  uh,
• 27:48
  teachers not showing up,
• 27:50
  classrooms being too big,
• 27:51
  uh,
• 27:52
  you know,
• 27:52
  they don't have air conditioning in many French schools,
• 27:54
  which,
• 27:54
  uh,
• 27:55
  in the summer can be,
• 27:56
  or the,
• 27:56
  the spring and fall even can be pretty uncomfortable,
• 28:00
  um,
• 28:00
  so there were,
• 28:01
  there were
• 28:01
  legitimate questions too about,
• 28:03
  um,
• 28:03
  the,
• 28:04
  it's called parkour soup,
• 28:05
  it's an
• 28:06
  system,
• 28:07
  which helps uh high school students navigate where they go to college,
• 28:11
  uh,
• 28:12
  another big issue is that
• 28:13
  the French system basically lets everybody into college,
• 28:16
  like 80%
• 28:17
  get the equivalent of a high school diploma,
• 28:19
  which guarantees them a place at university,
• 28:21
  but of course they can't educate that many,
• 28:22
  so the idea is they make them fail out.
• 28:25
  Uh,
• 28:25
  so they make the medical school,
• 28:27
  law school,
• 28:27
  and
• 28:28
  universities
• 28:29
  really,
• 28:29
  really hard in the first year,
• 28:30
  and they have a 50% or more dropout rate,
• 28:33
  um,
• 28:34
  and,
• 28:34
  and
• 28:35
  people don't like that.
• 28:35
  So there are a variety of different complaints that
• 28:37
  I think are fairly legitimate in the high school
• 28:40
  and university sector,
• 28:42
  uh,
• 28:42
  but
• 28:43
  there's also France's attendance.
• 28:44
  Box of
• 28:46
  uh protest,
• 28:47
  just waiting for an excuse,
• 28:48
  you've got the,
• 28:49
  uh the unions,
• 28:50
  the,
• 28:50
  the CGT,
• 28:51
  the,
• 28:51
  the General Confederation of Workers,
• 28:54
  um,
• 28:54
  and others
• 28:55
  that happily glom onto any sort of protest,
• 28:58
  um,
• 28:58
  generally looking for better benefits,
• 29:01
  shorter working hours,
• 29:02
  you know,
• 29:03
  earlier retirement.
• 29:04
  Um,
• 29:05
  and then you have an organized far left,
• 29:07
  uh,
• 29:08
  and Islamist
• 29:09
  community,
• 29:10
  lots of different organizations
• 29:12
  that have been waiting for an excuse to get out there,
• 29:15
  uh,
• 29:15
  and break stuff,
• 29:16
  and,
• 29:17
  and riot for what they want or protest for what they want.
• 29:19
  So I think it is,
• 29:20
  it is,
• 29:21
  there is a kernel of legitimate,
• 29:23
  well,
• 29:24
  you know,
• 29:24
  to what extent is any protest legitimate,
• 29:26
  people have a Grievance,
• 29:27
  they're out there on the street,
• 29:28
  it's legitimate until they start breaking stuff,
• 29:30
  right?
• 29:31
  So,
• 29:31
  there were people with genuine complaints,
• 29:33
  um,
• 29:34
  and,
• 29:34
  uh,
• 29:35
  the government can't do much about them,
• 29:37
  but there are other people out there on the streets now,
• 29:39
  who are hardcore
• 29:42
  leftists,
• 29:42
  uh,
• 29:43
  militant Islamists,
• 29:44
  and looters,
• 29:46
  who might be none of the above,
• 29:47
  they're they're just there to get some free sneakers.
• 29:50
  Yeah,
• 29:50
  yeah.
• 29:50
  Well,
• 29:51
  we've certainly seen that in the occasion
• 29:53
  in protests here in the US,
• 29:55
  um,
• 29:56
  expand on that a little bit more.
• 29:57
  The government can't do anything about that or can't do much about that.
• 30:00
  We make,
• 30:00
  you talk about these,
• 30:01
  the legitimate grievances,
• 30:03
  um,
• 30:04
  and to include,
• 30:06
  uh,
• 30:06
  some of the concerns of the unions and others.
• 30:09
  When you say the government can't do much about it,
• 30:10
  let's talk about that a little bit.
• 30:13
  Well,
• 30:14
  the,
• 30:15
  the French state
• 30:16
  has,
• 30:16
  has,
• 30:16
  they're on their 5th republic now,
• 30:18
  and
• 30:19
  they have always had a pretty generous welfare state
• 30:22
  since World War II,
• 30:23
  um,
• 30:24
  but it has
• 30:25
  grown up,
• 30:26
  uh,
• 30:26
  to the point where it is no longer sustainable with the budget that they have,
• 30:30
  so they have,
• 30:30
  I believe they're the 2nd highest taxed country in Europe,
• 30:33
  which is saying a lot.
• 30:34
  Um,
• 30:34
  you know,
• 30:35
  well over half of the income of the average French person
• 30:38
  is gonna go in taxes of one kind or another,
• 30:40
  they have,
• 30:41
  uh,
• 30:41
  you know,
• 30:41
  high gas taxes,
• 30:42
  diesel's like $10 a gallon there as opposed to
• 30:45
  maybe $6 now I think that we're complaining about,
• 30:48
  um,
• 30:49
  and
• 30:49
  they get free medical care,
• 30:51
  free education,
• 30:52
  including university education,
• 30:54
  uh,
• 30:54
  but every year they have a
• 30:56
  budget deficit,
• 30:57
  they haven't balanced a budget in,
• 30:58
  uh,
• 30:59
  50 years in France.
• 31:00
  The deficit this year is like 5.5%.
• 31:03
  Um,
• 31:03
  and so their national debt is about 120% of GDP.
• 31:07
  Now some of those things are true of the United States as well,
• 31:09
  um,
• 31:10
  and these are problems we're going to have to reckon with,
• 31:12
  but we have a couple of advantages that they don't have.
• 31:15
  Our economy is growing
• 31:16
  at,
• 31:16
  I don't know,
• 31:17
  3.5%.
• 31:18
  take,
• 31:19
  theirs is growing at about 0.5%,
• 31:21
  and it hasn't really grown in 20 years to any meaningful extent,
• 31:24
  so they can't grow their way out of the problem,
• 31:27
  they're not,
• 31:28
  they're hostile to entrepreneurs,
• 31:29
  basically,
• 31:30
  it's very difficult to start a business and run a business in France.
• 31:33
  Um,
• 31:34
  so that's what I mean,
• 31:34
  the state can't really give
• 31:36
  the demonstrators what they want.
• 31:37
  Uh,
• 31:37
  you can retire if you're a railroad worker in your fifties in France,
• 31:41
  because back in 1850,
• 31:43
  uh,
• 31:43
  it was a really dangerous job.
• 31:45
  Today,
• 31:45
  you're walking around,
• 31:47
  you know,
• 31:47
  punching tickets or driving an electronic.
• 31:49
  Uh,
• 31:50
  uh,
• 31:50
  you know,
• 31:50
  console train,
• 31:52
  uh,
• 31:52
  you're not sucking steam off off an engine or getting burned by hot coals,
• 31:56
  um,
• 31:56
  but you can still retire in your 50s,
• 31:58
  you know,
• 31:58
  at my age,
• 31:59
  I could probably be retired,
• 32:00
  um,
• 32:01
  and I think the general age of retirement is somewhere around 62,
• 32:04
  it might be,
• 32:05
  um,
• 32:05
  You know it's under 65,
• 32:06
  and every time the government tries to,
• 32:08
  to change it,
• 32:09
  to say,
• 32:09
  hey look,
• 32:10
  we need to raise the retirement age a bit,
• 32:12
  or cut uh some kind of benefits,
• 32:13
  people get out in the streets and they protest.
• 32:15
  So they're making demands
• 32:17
  that the government simply doesn't have the means to meet,
• 32:20
  unless they borrow more money,
• 32:22
  which puts them in jeopardy with the bond market,
• 32:24
  it's a vicious circle.
• 32:27
  So,
• 32:27
  um,
• 32:28
  uh,
• 32:28
  you know,
• 32:29
  I,
• 32:29
  I know this is a tough question to answer,
• 32:30
  probably an impossible question to answer,
• 32:32
  but,
• 32:32
  but how do they
• 32:33
  work themselves out of this situation?
• 32:37
  Uh,
• 32:37
  well,
• 32:37
  I,
• 32:38
  I don't see an easy exit.
• 32:39
  Um,
• 32:40
  there's an election coming up in April for the president.
• 32:43
  President has a lot of power in France,
• 32:45
  um,
• 32:45
  and can even go around parliament,
• 32:48
  uh,
• 32:48
  with sort of the opposite of a veto.
• 32:50
  The president can just
• 32:51
  bypass parliament.
• 32:52
  That's what the last,
• 32:53
  uh,
• 32:53
  President Macron did to pass his budget.
• 32:55
  Um,
• 32:56
  but
• 32:56
  if you,
• 32:57
  let's say,
• 32:58
  uh,
• 32:58
  Marine Le Pen is is elected,
• 33:00
  she's the,
• 33:00
  the right wing party,
• 33:02
  they will control,
• 33:03
  uh,
• 33:03
  immigration,
• 33:04
  they will crack down on hooliganism and,
• 33:07
  and,
• 33:07
  you know,
• 33:08
  people burning things and looting in the streets,
• 33:10
  but she has not really made any commitment to cutting back on spending.
• 33:14
  She knows that she needs the votes of retirees and
• 33:17
  an aging population who don't want to see anything cut.
• 33:20
  Um,
• 33:21
  the left-wing guy,
• 33:22
  uh,
• 33:23
  from,
• 33:23
  uh,
• 33:23
  La France Saint Soumise,
• 33:24
  France Unbowed,
• 33:25
  they translated to
• 33:26
  Jean-Luc Melenchon.
• 33:28
  I mean,
• 33:28
  he's out there.
• 33:29
  He is a far,
• 33:30
  far left,
• 33:31
  uh,
• 33:31
  socialist who wants basically open borders and unlimited benefits,
• 33:35
  and he doesn't.
• 33:36
  really care if the whole thing comes crashing down.
• 33:38
  So,
• 33:39
  you know,
• 33:39
  I don't see an easy way out for France,
• 33:41
  they don't have
• 33:42
  a lot of wiggle room,
• 33:43
  um,
• 33:43
  and they,
• 33:44
  there's no popular appetite to accept the kind of cuts and reforms that Greece did,
• 33:48
  for example,
• 33:50
  to get itself in line a couple of years back.
• 33:53
  Is it a
• 33:54
  cautionary tale
• 33:55
  for the US?
• 33:56
  I mean,
• 33:56
  I know you said that,
• 33:57
  that we have certain advantages in the US in terms of growth,
• 34:00
  uh,
• 34:00
  but,
• 34:01
  do you,
• 34:02
  do you look at what's happening in France and not just France,
• 34:04
  but other parts of Europe where they're experiencing
• 34:06
  the same,
• 34:07
  uh,
• 34:08
  issues,
• 34:08
  perhaps not with the same intensity.
• 34:11
  Do you look at that,
• 34:12
  look at the US and think,
• 34:13
  you know,
• 34:14
  here we are in 5 or 10 or 15 years.
• 34:18
  I don't think it's a direct line,
• 34:20
  uh,
• 34:20
  France has a very different history from ours,
• 34:23
  we're not so big on,
• 34:24
  with the exception of the George Floyd 2020 riots and a few others,
• 34:28
  we're not so big on people getting out into the streets and
• 34:31
  and trying to demand things and extort things from the government,
• 34:35
  um,
• 34:35
  and you know we're much more spread out,
• 34:37
  so there's not like one
• 34:38
  Paris that you can go to and shut down and get what you want,
• 34:40
  as you as you can
• 34:42
  more easily in in Europe,
• 34:43
  but the things that we have in common are
• 34:46
  We
• 34:47
  can't balance a budget.
• 34:48
  We have a growing
• 34:50
  debt which is overtaking our defense spending and it's becoming the number one
• 34:54
  budget line item.
• 34:56
  Uh,
• 34:56
  we have also a red-green alliance of
• 35:00
  Islamists,
• 35:00
  uh,
• 35:01
  and socialists who are temporary political bedfellows who
• 35:05
  want to rip down Western civilization and capitalism,
• 35:07
  you know,
• 35:08
  the whole woke
• 35:09
  industry that's,
• 35:10
  uh,
• 35:10
  taken over all of our
• 35:11
  campuses,
• 35:12
  um,
• 35:12
  is basically the same as the guys who are out there riding in France minus the,
• 35:16
  the looters.
• 35:18
  So,
• 35:18
  yeah,
• 35:18
  I think we have some of the same ingredients here and problems to deal with,
• 35:23
  um,
• 35:23
  but just a very different political system that's
• 35:26
  going to cope with them compared to France.
• 35:29
  OK.
• 35:30
  Um,
• 35:31
  I've got several pages of questions,
• 35:33
  uh,
• 35:33
  for you,
• 35:33
  Simon,
• 35:34
  to throw your way.
• 35:35
  Uh,
• 35:35
  but first,
• 35:36
  if you don't mind,
• 35:37
  stay right where you are.
• 35:37
  We do have to take a quick break
• 35:39
  and then we'll be back,
• 35:41
  uh,
• 35:41
  here on the Situation Report.
• 35:42
  So please stick around.
• 35:45
  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 35:48
  Joining me once again is Simon Hankinson.
• 35:50
  He's the senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation's Border Security
• 35:54
  and Immigration Center.
• 35:55
  We've been talking about
• 35:57
  the current unrest in Europe,
• 35:59
  particularly in France.
• 36:00
  Uh,
• 36:01
  Simon,
• 36:01
  first of all,
• 36:02
  thank you for sticking around because if we came back and you had decided to leave,
• 36:04
  it would be all,
• 36:06
  all the way around.
• 36:07
  So,
• 36:08
  uh,
• 36:08
  let's,
• 36:09
  if we could talk about
• 36:11
  the
• 36:13
  The impact of
• 36:14
  immigration policy on what we're currently seeing in France.
• 36:19
  And again,
• 36:19
  I'm,
• 36:19
  I'm kind of using France right now as,
• 36:21
  as a,
• 36:22
  you know,
• 36:22
  as a,
• 36:23
  a case study of Europe in general,
• 36:25
  uh,
• 36:26
  but because France has been stealing the headlines with,
• 36:28
  with all their unrest.
• 36:30
  Um,
• 36:31
  to what degree
• 36:32
  do you look at what's happening currently?
• 36:34
  Whether it's at the macro level and issues with social benefits
• 36:38
  being stretched in
• 36:39
  or just
• 36:41
  Perhaps what's happening on the streets in terms of violence.
• 36:45
  How do you link immigration policy that's been in France for years
• 36:49
  to what's taking place right now?
• 36:53
  Well,
• 36:53
  the French have always,
• 36:55
  uh,
• 36:56
  pretended that they don't see color,
• 36:58
  uh,
• 36:59
  in,
• 36:59
  in their official statistics,
• 37:01
  they don't break things down by race the way other countries do,
• 37:05
  um,
• 37:05
  because everybody's French,
• 37:06
  is that,
• 37:06
  is that's the conceit.
• 37:08
  But the reality is
• 37:10
  that they have accepted a large
• 37:13
  wave of immigration ever since the 60s.
• 37:17
  Uh,
• 37:18
  from their former colonies from North Africa,
• 37:20
  from Africa,
• 37:21
  from Asia,
• 37:22
  and a lot of that immigration is Muslim,
• 37:25
  and
• 37:26
  it is also not particularly highly skilled,
• 37:28
  they're not,
• 37:29
  they're getting some
• 37:30
  doctors and engineers,
• 37:32
  but they're also getting a lot of,
• 37:33
  uh,
• 37:34
  you know,
• 37:34
  peasants basically,
• 37:35
  and,
• 37:35
  and city
• 37:36
  dwellers with low levels of education who are not easy fits into the
• 37:41
  sophisticated French economy.
• 37:43
  So they have brought in a lot of people,
• 37:44
  if you look at the unemployment rate among
• 37:47
  immigrants in France and their children,
• 37:49
  it is higher
• 37:50
  by,
• 37:50
  you know,
• 37:51
  10,
• 37:51
  15% than
• 37:53
  that of indigenous or native French people.
• 37:56
  Over time,
• 37:57
  that changes,
• 37:58
  I mean there is an assimilation process,
• 38:00
  but it's very,
• 38:01
  very slow,
• 38:02
  uh,
• 38:02
  and they've also,
• 38:03
  uh,
• 38:03
  most of the people have settled in
• 38:05
  Um,
• 38:06
  what they call the bonli of the suburbs,
• 38:08
  but they're not suburbs like with green lawns and picket fences,
• 38:10
  they're more like the projects,
• 38:12
  high rise buildings,
• 38:14
  and they surround,
• 38:15
  um,
• 38:15
  I lived in Marseille as consul general there for three years,
• 38:18
  uh,
• 38:18
  they called it the northern quarters,
• 38:20
  and they were basically,
• 38:21
  uh,
• 38:22
  projects in the north of the city of Marseille.
• 38:24
  France,
• 38:25
  uh,
• 38:25
  is surrounded by these banlie,
• 38:27
  and they're very densely packed
• 38:29
  with,
• 38:29
  uh,
• 38:29
  Algerians,
• 38:30
  Tunisians,
• 38:31
  Moroccans,
• 38:32
  um,
• 38:32
  uh,
• 38:33
  you know,
• 38:33
  in these neighborhoods,
• 38:34
  so
• 38:35
  the assimilation process just isn't happening the way
• 38:38
  it might if they were more spread out,
• 38:40
  which is incidentally why the Danish government
• 38:42
  Which had similar issues,
• 38:44
  decided to break up,
• 38:45
  uh,
• 38:46
  what they called ghettos,
• 38:47
  uh,
• 38:48
  so you can't have a concentration of more than 10 or 15%,
• 38:51
  uh,
• 38:52
  migrants
• 38:53
  or their or their immediate descendants in any particular neighborhood,
• 38:56
  because they realized
• 38:57
  that they were creating these ghettos that
• 38:59
  were that were perpetuating gang violence,
• 39:02
  um,
• 39:02
  and,
• 39:02
  and,
• 39:03
  you know,
• 39:04
  barbaric religious practices and things that were very un-Danish and unmodern.
• 39:08
  So France's immigration policy
• 39:10
  has been to
• 39:11
  Accept large numbers of people,
• 39:13
  like us,
• 39:13
  they have family reunification,
• 39:15
  uh,
• 39:15
  they have,
• 39:16
  uh,
• 39:16
  people applying for asylum and getting it,
• 39:19
  uh,
• 39:19
  and when they refuse people asylum,
• 39:21
  they don't deport more than a small percentage of them,
• 39:24
  and all of that has
• 39:25
  been building up over the years,
• 39:28
  until there is now a
• 39:29
  very large
• 39:30
  and very young
• 39:32
  population,
• 39:33
  some of whom are perfectly happy to become French,
• 39:35
  but many others of whom
• 39:38
  are unhappy about their future.
• 39:40
  And they want to blame somebody for it,
• 39:42
  and they're blaming the French state
• 39:44
  and Western capitalism and Christianity and everything really that is France.
• 39:50
  Yeah,
• 39:51
  um,
• 39:51
  I've been to some of those areas,
• 39:53
  um,
• 39:54
  in the suburbs
• 39:55
  of Paris,
• 39:56
  um,
• 39:57
  and elsewhere,
• 39:58
  and
• 39:59
  They are very depressing,
• 40:01
  um,
• 40:02
  neighborhoods,
• 40:03
  if you can even call them neighborhoods.
• 40:05
  So,
• 40:05
  you can look at that and you can say,
• 40:07
  OK,
• 40:07
  I,
• 40:08
  you can,
• 40:08
  you can sense the grievances,
• 40:09
  you,
• 40:10
  you understand,
• 40:11
  you know,
• 40:11
  the,
• 40:11
  the sense of,
• 40:13
  you know,
• 40:13
  OK,
• 40:13
  what's,
• 40:14
  what's in it for me?
• 40:14
  Where's the future?
• 40:16
  Um,
• 40:17
  But
• 40:18
  they've,
• 40:19
  uh,
• 40:19
  you know,
• 40:20
  I don't want to sound
• 40:21
  callous,
• 40:21
  but it,
• 40:22
  you know,
• 40:22
  for France,
• 40:23
  for the government,
• 40:23
  it's a self-inflicted wound
• 40:25
  that,
• 40:26
  that,
• 40:26
  you know,
• 40:27
  took place over years.
• 40:29
  Yeah,
• 40:30
  I mean,
• 40:30
  it's just like us here.
• 40:31
  I mean,
• 40:31
  we,
• 40:32
  we brought in
• 40:34
  millions of people
• 40:36
  without
• 40:36
  being discriminatory as to whether they could pay
• 40:40
  taxes or get jobs or contribute to society.
• 40:43
  You look at our refugee policy,
• 40:44
  we have brought in
• 40:46
  Uh,
• 40:47
  people who,
• 40:48
  generally speaking,
• 40:49
  are taking a lot more from the United States taxpayer than they are contributing.
• 40:54
  That was a deliberate policy choice.
• 40:55
  Well,
• 40:55
  you can do that
• 40:56
  on a charitable basis for a few 1000 people,
• 40:59
  but once you start doing it for millions of people,
• 41:01
  the government
• 41:03
  can't handle it,
• 41:03
  and that's what's happening in France,
• 41:05
  and I would argue that's what happened.
• 41:07
  Uh,
• 41:07
  in,
• 41:07
  in Minnesota with all the welfare scams,
• 41:10
  there was just,
• 41:11
  uh,
• 41:11
  it was too quick,
• 41:12
  too many people brought in
• 41:14
  without enough effort made and time
• 41:16
  to acclimatize them to the way we do things here,
• 41:20
  uh,
• 41:20
  and to get them to be contributing members of society,
• 41:23
  uh,
• 41:23
  and,
• 41:23
  and that has led to some real issues that we're now trying to clean up.
• 41:28
  Is it,
• 41:28
  is there one group or a couple of groups you can point to
• 41:32
  currently in France that are
• 41:35
  driving
• 41:36
  the unrest?
• 41:37
  Again,
• 41:37
  with the concept,
• 41:38
  OK,
• 41:38
  fine,
• 41:39
  legitimate protests at the outset,
• 41:40
  the students certainly had
• 41:42
  some grievances that,
• 41:43
  that need to be dealt with.
• 41:45
  Um,
• 41:46
  but at this stage,
• 41:48
  are,
• 41:48
  are there
• 41:49
  particular
• 41:50
  organizations
• 41:51
  that are driving this train.
• 41:54
  There's a good article I'm just reading in the Free Press today,
• 41:57
  uh,
• 41:58
  by somebody who breaks down
• 41:59
  all of the groups that are
• 42:01
  organizing behind the scenes,
• 42:03
  um,
• 42:03
  and I recommend that to,
• 42:04
  if you want to know the exact names,
• 42:05
  the,
• 42:06
  the left-wing party La Francaise,
• 42:07
  I think has
• 42:09
  a role to play here,
• 42:10
  they're playing a role,
• 42:11
  um,
• 42:11
  they want to win the elections,
• 42:13
  but they also want To create chaos and,
• 42:16
  uh,
• 42:16
  destroy the state as it is.
• 42:18
  So they have an incentive.
• 42:19
  There was a young,
• 42:20
  uh,
• 42:21
  Frenchman,
• 42:22
  a college student beaten to death
• 42:24
  about two months ago
• 42:25
  by and by left-wing thugs.
• 42:27
  Um,
• 42:28
  and one of them was connected to an actual member of parliament from LFI.
• 42:32
  He was a staff aide,
• 42:33
  I think.
• 42:34
  And this poor young man was murdered
• 42:36
  because he was,
• 42:37
  he was doing volunteer security for just an event at a university.
• 42:41
  Um,
• 42:41
  they are really violent.
• 42:43
  This is like Germany in the 1930s,
• 42:45
  you know,
• 42:45
  when the communists were out there fighting the fascists,
• 42:47
  um,
• 42:48
  the fascists won,
• 42:49
  but believe me,
• 42:49
  the communists
• 42:50
  were,
• 42:50
  you know,
• 42:51
  equally violent and would have been,
• 42:52
  uh,
• 42:52
  equally violent had they taken over Germany,
• 42:55
  it just would have gone in a different direction,
• 42:57
  um,
• 42:57
  and
• 42:58
  The left wing in France is extremely well
• 43:00
  organized and and uh dangerous I would argue,
• 43:03
  at least elements of it.
• 43:04
  There's also um uh several Islamist groups,
• 43:07
  there's a student uh Muslim group
• 43:10
  that is a a chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood that you've probably heard of,
• 43:14
  which is this organization founded in Egypt
• 43:17
  that has the ultimate aim of,
• 43:19
  you know,
• 43:19
  turning the whole world into the caliphate,
• 43:21
  into the Uma.
• 43:22
  Um,
• 43:22
  they,
• 43:23
  they claim to be peaceful and that they
• 43:25
  want to do it through people voluntarily converting,
• 43:28
  uh,
• 43:28
  but I think it's pretty clear that they have a track record of violence when,
• 43:31
  when they think it's effective.
• 43:34
  Yes,
• 43:34
  that's,
• 43:34
  that's always the tradition,
• 43:35
  voluntary,
• 43:37
  voluntary
• 43:38
  joining,
• 43:39
  um.
• 43:41
  Yeah,
• 43:41
  are you seeing or,
• 43:42
  um,
• 43:43
  have you seen any analysis of linkages between
• 43:47
  organizations in France and other parts of Europe where they're also experiencing
• 43:51
  some of these similar unrests?
• 43:54
  I mean I think there's coordination and contact between,
• 43:58
  uh,
• 43:58
  particularly the anti-Semitic,
• 43:59
  the,
• 44:00
  the sort of pro-Gaza
• 44:01
  Arabic speaking network,
• 44:03
  um,
• 44:03
  because they share a common language and a common cause,
• 44:06
  um,
• 44:07
  the left-wing parties are,
• 44:08
  you know,
• 44:08
  somewhat organized on the European level,
• 44:10
  but
• 44:11
  because of the language barrier,
• 44:12
  it's just like the conservatives,
• 44:13
  you know,
• 44:14
  they,
• 44:14
  they,
• 44:15
  uh,
• 44:15
  they tend to be a bit siloed,
• 44:16
  uh,
• 44:17
  but I will say
• 44:18
  historically,
• 44:19
  uh,
• 44:19
  communist socialists are much more internationally focused than conservatives.
• 44:24
  Conservatives tend to be nationalists,
• 44:25
  we want to fix our country first,
• 44:27
  and then we can be friends with other countries,
• 44:29
  uh,
• 44:29
  whereas the,
• 44:29
  the communists a century ago,
• 44:31
  it was their,
• 44:32
  their anthem was called the Internationale,
• 44:34
  it was about setting up supreme
• 44:35
  world Soviets,
• 44:36
  not just one in one country.
• 44:38
  Um,
• 44:39
  so they have that tradition,
• 44:40
  um,
• 44:41
  There have been reports too that they've been receiving some money,
• 44:44
  some foreign funding,
• 44:45
  uh,
• 44:45
  to,
• 44:46
  to organize some of the protests,
• 44:48
  uh,
• 44:48
  but there's plenty of,
• 44:49
  of indigenous French,
• 44:51
  um,
• 44:51
  you know,
• 44:52
  money and organizational capacity to to get these protests
• 44:55
  out in the street and to cause mayhem.
• 44:58
  What are the
• 45:00
  What do the Islamist groups want
• 45:02
  out of this,
• 45:03
  those that have taken to the streets?
• 45:07
  Well,
• 45:07
  I guess Islamists in general want to uh
• 45:11
  destroy
• 45:12
  the sort of western
• 45:14
  secular society and replace it with uh an Islamic society.
• 45:18
  Now that's not,
• 45:18
  you know,
• 45:18
  obviously every Muslim,
• 45:19
  it's Islamists,
• 45:20
  the more extreme
• 45:21
  jihadists,
• 45:22
  Salafists,
• 45:23
  whatever you want to call them,
• 45:24
  uh,
• 45:24
  the al Qaeda,
• 45:25
  um,
• 45:26
  I would argue the Muslim Brotherhood and And groups like that.
• 45:29
  Um,
• 45:30
  they,
• 45:30
  Gaza is like the obsession,
• 45:32
  it's the unic cause now.
• 45:33
  They,
• 45:34
  they want to destroy the state of Israel by,
• 45:37
  uh,
• 45:37
  you know,
• 45:37
  creating one country in the area formerly known as Palestine,
• 45:41
  which of course would be majority Arab in about 5 minutes.
• 45:44
  Um,
• 45:45
  and
• 45:45
  they oppose any
• 45:47
  country,
• 45:48
  any company that does business with Israel,
• 45:50
  because they consider it part of that oppressor class that is oppressing
• 45:54
  the Palestinian people.
• 45:55
  So that's,
• 45:56
  that's the flag that they're raising now that kind of unifies the
• 45:59
  movement if it gives them one particular cause to cry about.
• 46:04
  Is there a sense that,
• 46:06
  um,
• 46:07
  I know obviously it depends on the,
• 46:08
  on the election outcomes,
• 46:09
  but
• 46:10
  is there a sense
• 46:12
  within France,
• 46:13
  again,
• 46:14
  kind of focusing on the,
• 46:15
  on,
• 46:15
  on that country.
• 46:17
  That
• 46:19
  they've made a mistake,
• 46:20
  that the,
• 46:20
  their immigration policies
• 46:22
  have led to problems that perhaps they could foresee but just didn't care about
• 46:27
  uh until they land in their lap.
• 46:29
  Um,
• 46:30
  Do you get,
• 46:31
  I just,
• 46:32
  um,
• 46:32
  again,
• 46:32
  I know this is a tough question to answer,
• 46:33
  but I,
• 46:34
  I'm wondering whether
• 46:35
  people look at that because we had that sea change here in the States,
• 46:38
  I think,
• 46:38
  which obviously led to election results,
• 46:40
  uh,
• 46:41
  the last go around.
• 46:41
  But I think,
• 46:43
  is there a sense within France that,
• 46:44
  you know,
• 46:45
  we've got to change?
• 46:48
  Well,
• 46:48
  this is the problem is,
• 46:50
  yes,
• 46:50
  uh,
• 46:51
  but
• 46:52
  are they enough?
• 46:54
  Are they enough,
• 46:54
  they have a low fertility rate,
• 46:56
  the people who have arrived in the last,
• 46:58
  uh,
• 46:59
  40 years have a much higher fertility rate,
• 47:01
  it goes down over time,
• 47:02
  and in the first generation,
• 47:03
  it's,
• 47:04
  you know,
• 47:04
  much higher,
• 47:05
  they have bigger families.
• 47:06
  So the young people,
• 47:07
  if you look at the demographics of
• 47:09
  the US,
• 47:09
  of Britain,
• 47:10
  um,
• 47:11
  of,
• 47:11
  of all the major Western democracies,
• 47:13
  Uh,
• 47:14
  uh,
• 47:15
  white people in the United States,
• 47:15
  for example,
• 47:16
  European origin people are still a majority,
• 47:18
  but if you look at K through 12 schools,
• 47:20
  I believe they are a minority.
• 47:22
  So the future demography of the United States is heading in a very obvious,
• 47:25
  uh,
• 47:25
  direction,
• 47:26
  which is non-European,
• 47:27
  for good or ill.
• 47:28
  Uh,
• 47:29
  and that is the same in France and in Germany and in Great Britain.
• 47:31
  So I think some people in Britain,
• 47:33
  for example,
• 47:34
  and France have realized,
• 47:35
  hang on a minute,
• 47:36
  we,
• 47:36
  the indigenous
• 47:37
  People of this country,
• 47:38
  English,
• 47:38
  Irish,
• 47:39
  Scottish,
• 47:39
  Welsh,
• 47:40
  and Britain and France,
• 47:41
  French,
• 47:42
  um,
• 47:42
  will be a minority in our own country
• 47:45
  within
• 47:45
  probably
• 47:46
  30 years,
• 47:47
  at the current rate,
• 47:48
  and some of them don't want that future,
• 47:51
  because they see that they,
• 47:52
  as the minority will not be well
• 47:53
  treated because minorities historically get stomped on
• 47:56
  by majorities,
• 47:57
  that's just the nature of humanity.
• 47:59
  So I think they have
• 48:01
  realized it,
• 48:01
  but are there enough of them?
• 48:03
  You still have a large group of indigenous French like Jean-Luc Melenchon,
• 48:07
  who's as French as they come,
• 48:08
  who are,
• 48:09
  uh,
• 48:09
  you know,
• 48:10
  communists,
• 48:11
  far left socialists,
• 48:12
  I don't see much of a distinction between the two,
• 48:14
  and they hate Western society,
• 48:15
  they really hate
• 48:16
  France,
• 48:17
  um,
• 48:17
  and you add
• 48:19
  to those the Islamist,
• 48:20
  uh,
• 48:21
  element of,
• 48:21
  of the immigrant population,
• 48:22
  which is by no means all of them,
• 48:24
  uh,
• 48:25
  they can win elections.
• 48:26
  So,
• 48:27
  I think the worm has turned,
• 48:28
  I think people are awake now to the danger,
• 48:31
  but I just don't know if they have the political power,
• 48:34
  just like in the United States.
• 48:35
  I'm not sure
• 48:36
  that we have the political power to stop socialism,
• 48:40
  uh,
• 48:40
  in its tracks.
• 48:41
  We certainly lost a bunch of cities,
• 48:42
  we're probably going to lose a bunch of states,
• 48:43
  and we may even lose Congress,
• 48:45
  uh,
• 48:46
  and we'll just have to see where it goes.
• 48:48
  Yeah,
• 48:49
  yeah,
• 48:49
  alluding to the upcoming midterm elections,
• 48:51
  um,
• 48:52
  that is
• 48:53
  going to be fascinating and,
• 48:54
  and obviously we'll be keeping an eye on that here at the PDB,
• 48:57
  but we,
• 48:57
  our focus is always
• 48:59
  kind of what's outside the US borders and,
• 49:01
  and looking at things that are happening,
• 49:02
  national crises and national security issues.
• 49:05
  Um,
• 49:07
  I guess,
• 49:08
  last question.
• 49:10
  For
• 49:12
  For the US,
• 49:14
  when you look at what's happening in France,
• 49:16
  and I think you,
• 49:17
  you made a really interesting comment at the very beginning
• 49:19
  about
• 49:20
  socialists,
• 49:20
  uh,
• 49:21
  hard-left progressives,
• 49:22
  and Islamists,
• 49:23
  you know,
• 49:24
  being
• 49:25
  interesting bedfellows currently.
• 49:27
  Um,
• 49:28
  Do you see that,
• 49:29
  do you see that dynamic here in the States?
• 49:32
  Oh,
• 49:32
  of course,
• 49:33
  I mean that every protest that you see where the students are out there,
• 49:37
  doesn't matter what the issue is,
• 49:38
  the Palestinian flags come out somehow.
• 49:40
  Um,
• 49:41
  you know,
• 49:41
  you've got Queers for Palestine,
• 49:42
  which is just an insane
• 49:44
  combination of causes because the,
• 49:46
  the
• 49:47
  Palestinians are not known to be particularly kind to people who are not,
• 49:50
  who are of a different sexual orientations.
• 49:53
  Um,
• 49:54
  There there
• 49:54
  there is this
• 49:56
  really odd,
• 49:56
  uh,
• 49:57
  unica now.
• 49:58
  I mean,
• 49:59
  Greta Thunberg
• 50:00
  is now on the,
• 50:01
  on the Palestine train,
• 50:02
  uh,
• 50:02
  having,
• 50:03
  I,
• 50:03
  I don't think she's given up on climate change,
• 50:04
  but I don't think that was paying the rent.
• 50:06
  Um,
• 50:07
  so yeah,
• 50:07
  there,
• 50:08
  there is this,
• 50:08
  this same,
• 50:09
  um,
• 50:11
  combination of woke,
• 50:12
  uh,
• 50:13
  you know,
• 50:13
  trans ideology,
• 50:15
  anti-Western,
• 50:15
  anti-capitalist,
• 50:17
  uh,
• 50:17
  and pro-Palestinian,
• 50:19
  anti-Israeli,
• 50:20
  anti-Semitic,
• 50:22
  it's all,
• 50:22
  it seems to all be one thing now,
• 50:24
  it's like you have to
• 50:25
  pick,
• 50:25
  you can't pick from that menu,
• 50:26
  you gotta buy all of it.
• 50:29
  Yeah,
• 50:29
  yeah,
• 50:30
  it has been interesting to see and,
• 50:31
  and some of the,
• 50:32
  I mean,
• 50:33
  Mumdani himself,
• 50:34
  right?
• 50:34
  The New York mayor got,
• 50:36
  got,
• 50:36
  uh,
• 50:37
  get booed out of,
• 50:38
  out of an event,
• 50:40
  um,
• 50:40
  because he wasn't viewed as,
• 50:42
  as I suppose,
• 50:43
  pro-Palestinian enough,
• 50:45
  right?
• 50:45
  And if there's somebody who's been consistent in their
• 50:47
  pro-Palestine views as Mamdani,
• 50:50
  but the mob always turns on,
• 50:51
  on its own.
• 50:53
  Um,
• 50:53
  Simon,
• 50:54
  this has been a fascinating conversation.
• 50:56
  I do hope
• 50:56
  that you'll come back here on The Situation Report next time we'll give you a shout.
• 51:01
  Uh,
• 51:01
  and I wanna thank you very much for all your time.
• 51:03
  It's been a pleasure.
• 51:04
  Thank you.
• 51:06
  Take care.
• 51:07
  Simon Hankinson of the Heritage Foundation
• 51:10
  and uh we'll definitely have him
• 51:12
  back on,
• 51:13
  uh,
• 51:13
  because I do not think the unrest that we're seeing in Europe is
• 51:16
  going to die down anytime soon.
• 51:19
  Well,
• 51:19
  that's all the time we have for this week's PDB situation report.
• 51:22
  And if you have any questions or comments,
• 51:24
  just reach out to me at PDB
• 51:25
  at thefirstv.com.
• 51:27
  We'd love to get your cards,
• 51:29
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• 51:29
  and
• 51:30
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• 51:32
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• 51:36
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• 51:38
  We take some of your best questions,
• 51:40
  uh,
• 51:40
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• 51:43
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• 51:43
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• 51:44
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• 51:45
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  the President's Daily Brief and that's very simple to do.
• 51:50
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• 51:50
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• 51:50
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• 51:53
  I'm Mike Baker and until next time,
• 51:55
  you know the drill.
• 51:56
  Stay informed,
• 51:57
  stay safe,
• 51:58
  stay cool.